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1.1.3 1994 ^#8U#a#....................................................................
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3
SUMMARY
1. Trend of Actions for Global Environment and Energy Demand/Supply
Of domestic and overseas actions against the problem of the global environment as well as associated measures for energy demand/supply taken these years, the following four efforts:
(1) Preparation of the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;
(2) Bringing the Framework Convention on Climate Changes into effect and holding Intergovernmental Negotiating Conference;
(3) Interim report of the demand/supply subcommittee of the overall energy surveying committee; and
(4) Working out the master plan for introducing new energy sources:
Are mainly examined here along with backgrounds and purposes involved as well as outline of reports.
World wide concern about the greenhouse effect on the earth continues to be at a high level, encouraging most advanced findings on this problem to be collected and summarized on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). What policies national governments should adopt against this problem begins to be discussed based on the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), with progresses expected to be made in spite of many difficulties involved.
In Japan, the interim report of the demand/supply subcommittee of the
overall energy surveying committee reveals the prospect for achieving the international pledge 2000-2010 on compatibility of reasonable economical development and sufficient energy supply with the effective carbon dioxide emission control. Demand/supply of secondary energy is also discussed in this report, including prospects for how to supply new secondary energy. The master plan for introducing new energy sources suggests guidelines and supporting actions for realizing introduction of new secondary energy sources.
4
2. Investigation of Energy-Environment Models
As the problem of the global environment has become more imminent, more models to deal with the energy demand/supply in combination with environmental problems are proposed, with a view to effects of the energy demand/supply system on long-term climatic changes as well as those of optional policies on the social economy. Energy-environment models presented in literature these years in Japan and overseas were investigated, and supporting information for selected 24 of them were collected and further investigated (see Table 1).
Models to deal with effects on social economy vary in the type, including models covering a country, those covering the entire world, dynamic optimization models and static balance models. In the present study, 24 models are divided into six broad categories, including two with respect to the coverage, e.g. domestic and world wide, and three categories from the view point of the model structure, e.g. the optimization model, the economical determination model based on the general balance, and the economical determination model based on the localized balance, which are detailed below.
Optimization model:Enables optimization including maximization of the economical
development and minimization of the energy cost, given an energy supply limitation. This presents potential prices of different goods.Economical determination model based on the general balance:
Presents the process to coordinate the invested capital, available labor and production across multiple sectors of industry Economical determination model based on the localized balance:
Indirectly presents an optimal behavior to exhibit such as consumption maximization, given a demand function for goods
Models typical of each category are examined for their background on which the models has been developed, their structure and simulation results of using models, which are summarized in this paper.
Every model is interesting enough to give new findings for analyzing the link of energy demand/supply with the problem of global environment. There is a certain limit, however, when applying analysis results using these models to the real world, because simplification and averaging out of the social and economical systems and various hypotheses are contained in models.
5 -
Table 1 Energy-Environment Models ExaminedName of Model Developer Classification
Region Structure
GODMEEM Gotoh (Kanazawa Univ.) Japan Opt. (*)
Kuroda Model Kuroda (Keioh Univ.) Japan GBConsumption Turn-Pike Tsukui (Asia Univ.) Japan GBFORECAST 21 Yamaji (CRIEPI) Japan LB
Itoh Model Itoh (IEEJ) Japan LB
Ban Model Ban (Ohsaka Univ.) Japan LB
Yamazaki Model Yamazaki (CRC Inst.) Japan LB
Mori Model Mori (Tokyo Science Univ.) Japan LB
Global 2100 Manne (Stanford Univ.), Richels (EPRI) World Opt.
New Earth 21 Fuji! (Tokyo Univ.) World Opt.
CETA Peck (EPRI), Teisberg (Teisberg Associates) World Opt.
GREEN Martin, Bumiaux (OECD) World GBWhalley-Wigle Whalley (Westeren Ontario Univ.),
Wigle (Wilford Laurier Univ.)
World GB
CRTM Rutherford (Westeren Ontario Univ.) World GBGlobal-Macro Energy Pepper (ICF, Inc.) World GBFUGI Ohnishi (Sohka Univ.) World GBG-Cubed McKibbin (Brookings Inst.) World GBEdmonds-Reilly Bams, Edmonds, Reilly
(Pacific Northwest Lab.)
World LB
EDS Vouyoukis, Kouvaritakis (IEA) World LB
DGEM Jorgenson, Wilcoxen (Harvard Univ.) World(**) GBGOULDER Goulder (StanfordUniv.) World(**) GBFOSSIL2 Belanger, Naill(Applied Energy Services) US. LB
GEMINI Cohan, Diener (Decision Focus, Inc.), Scheraga (EPA)
u.s. LB
T-GAS Kaufmann(Alliance Technologies Corp.) 14 nations Reg.
Notes: - The above classification into model structures is not the unique one, but other
classifications may be possible from different points of view.
- Abbreviations for Structure:Opt.: Optimization, GB: Economical determination (general balance),
LB: Economical determination (local balance), Reg.: Regression Model
- (*) Models showing some aspects of the economical determination model based on the
localized balance as well.
- (**) Models covering the entire world, derived from analyses basically made in the USA.
6
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Global 2100 *r)Vli, =S:±S tt)t LXffi
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output : Y) t±J.*;P^-3X h (EC) , me (C) , ft* (I) tKge»5#l-6
Y = C +I+EC (2-2)
:;t, E4S (y) i±, (k) , (l) , (e) ,
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Y=[a(KaL‘““)p+b(EpN1_p)p]Vp
p=l-(l/p) (for o=0,1)
::t, a li**ro*ia-> j:T, /giitoroeig-yjLTir^LTvi^o
tJWoE'fce (Y(t)) li, (t-1) i>(0 (YS(t)) k, t
Mt:%XL ^###$t:Mf & b(0 (YN(t)) <oMtk LTSSft-So
'
v (2-3)
Y(t)=YS(t)+YN(t)
YS(t)=X10Y(t-l)
KS(t)=X10K(t-l)
LS(t)=X10L(t-l)
ES(t)=X10E(t-l)
NS(t)=X10N(t-l)
(2-4)
YN(t)=[a(KN(t)“LN(t)1’T+b(EN(t)pNN(t)1-p)p]1/l> J
tzfzL, A : (o$ I), 1 A =0.95) o A O*gcl0l±
ltgwgSo KS(t), Ls(t), es(i), ws(t)h v »
»m, knu), ln(o, eno),
NN(t) h 7 ? 4-fflWc4igt:KA$n.S*^, *#,
fta-ttsmicioT, -f > j'-T>*'7;uKrS#^e*'(E1-B> J: •) 17 K*hiW®io/A
T-l co
U= 2 (1+ <? )',0< logC(t) + 2 (1 + 5 T™ logC(T)1=1 l=T
tztiL, t=i: 1990#, t=T : 2100#, 5 : @g|$ c cr, co) = Y(t) - i(o - ec(o
(2-5)
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L*„ &£, £-$$«-1±, tfc, *;LjL)Wx)
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ex mmmm<o±m$> u)
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ETAIiti,TK^i-l2*<0iBIJiKlS;-r*1t)$5iiTv^o
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n. RSVAV(X) mMMMt
RSCAV(X) *tSEaim
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f. SUP GAS
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ifc, £llliEB»H:kSSprvx (ES-fllli:tll:i7)0£Jt$)
^ -Ej o
PRVLEM^ j : PNX t =prvx RSVX>( t = 0, ,T (2-6)
(»)«isa*it+m<9«E,iiSti:ti, tfflvmmmmmt, s^’ttztitumtt+mvgmM
<7)igsi (RAx-PNx) «0fn-ei*S8tL4o
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RSVAVx>t+1 : RSVX t+1 - RSVXt + 5[(RAX t+1 - PNx>t+1) + (RAXt - PNX t)]
t = 0,...,T-1 (2-7)
RSCAVX,t+l : RSCX,t+l = RSCX,t -5 (RAx.t+l + RAx.t) ‘ =
#%ao)#mamm (rax, o i±, *isi,a«i t rdfx (*s<o%e,^(7)±e«)
RDFLIMjf t: RAX t < rdfx RSC^ t = 0,...,T (2-9)
n. (CLOU) co&Mim&lfcid tc, (CLDU) G D P <n±M-¥cr>20%T&Z,o
< SlMSAroE*,
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NXPt+ij : PNj>t+1 < PNj>t (nxpf)10 + XPNj t+1 j e NX (2-11)
DEq+1>k : PEk_t+1 > PEk-t (decf)10 k e DL (2-12)
(d)
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- 115 -
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116 -
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ROW
SU-EE
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
£2. 2-20 iS6GDP®fi*
thousand BTUs/dollar
USA OOECD SU-EE China ROW
£2.2-30 £-<fc.x*;l'4r-/GDP
holts
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- 118
5i>c<7>£e*<9_h#*t± GDP <£>±#=£<020% t l*„
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TechnologyName
Earliest Possible e Introduction Date Identification
ElectricTechnologies
Existing:
HYDRO Hydroelectric, geothermal and other renewables
GAS-R Remaining initial gas-firedOlUR Remaining initial oil-firedCOAUR Remaining initial coal-firedNUC-R Remaining initial nuclear
New;
GAS-N 1995 Advanced combined cycle, gas- fire d
COAJUN 1990 New coal-firedADV-HC 2010 High cost non-carbon basedADV-LC 2010 Low cost non-carbon based
• Estimated year when the technology could provide .1 trillion kWh (approximately 20GW of installed capacity at 60% capacity factor).
#2.2-2#E #%%####
TechnologyName Description
Carbon emission coefficient, tons of carbon per million BTU of crude oil equivalent*
Unit Cost1988 $ per million BTU of crude oil equivalent
OIL-MX Oil imports - exports .0203 3.30 in 1990, rising to 15 from 2030 onward
CLOU Coal - direct uses .0251 2.00bOIL-LC Oil - low cost .0203 2-50c
U0c'dGAS-LC Natural gas - low cost .0145OIUIIC Oil - high cost .0203 6.00GAS-I1C Natural gas - high cost .0145 5.00°SYNF Synthetic fuels .0408 10.00NE-BAK Nonelectric backstop .0000 20.00
Notes: a. Source of carbon emission coefficients: Edmonds and Reilly (1985). b. CLDU costs arc only $1.00 per million BTU in China, c. OIULC costs arc only $0.50 per million BTU in ROW. Similarly, GAS-LC costs arc only $1.00 per million BTU in ROW. d. To allow for bumcr-tip equivalence, an additional $1.25 per million BTU is added to allow for gas distribution costs.
- 119
Components add up to rate ol GDP growthcoto
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CO2 DisposalCOi Ocean Disposal (injected at a depth of more than 3000m below sea level) COi Subterranean Disposal (injected into depleted gas, oil wells, and Aquifer)
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- 131 -
2.2-3^ (Unit:GTOE) 1985$*^^
World Region Coal Oil Natural GasNorth America 876.61 32.03 42.67
Western Europe 494.24 9.44 9.10Japan 5.43 0.01 0.03
Oceania 391.45 1.28 1.20Centrally Planned Economy Asia 468.46 9.36 1.66
Other Asia 122.83 7.11 7.12Middle East & Northern Africa 7.40 85.38 36.83
Subsaharan Africa 154.26 8.88 3.06Latin America 25.50 31.84 11.23
Former USSR & Eastern Europe 2742.40 47.21 118.46
World Total 5288.58 232.53 231.35
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World Total
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Cumulative Prodution from 1990 Onward(billions TOE)
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i2.2-3. (Unit : Gton of Carbon)
World Region Enhanced Oil Recovery Depleted Natural Gas Well AquiferNorth America 2.10 4.26 -14.22 9.93
Western Europe 0.55 0.76 - 2.88 2.78Japan 0.00 0.00 - 0.01 0.14
Oceania 0.07 0.05 - 0.33 10.06Centrally Planned Asia 0.45 0.05 - 0.50 4.82
Other Asia 0.33 0.25 - 1.91 6.98Middle East & Northern Africa 2.05 0.74 - 9.37 6.44
Other Africa 0.29 0.08 - 0.76 17.45Latin America 1.82 0.34 - 2.96 14.7
Former USSR & Eastern Europe 1.59 1.66 -29.31 14.02
World Total 9.24 8.20 -62.24 87.33
/\ ##63 1241
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- 134 -
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Depleted Gas Well
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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000Distance (km)
S2.2-17H h (jtm [25]
- 135 -
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Average Growth Case
I WO 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year
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Average Growth Case
I01 104 10'
GNP per Capita (US Vperson)
S2.2-19IH V ^ (Average Growth Case)
- 139 -
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Base Case ScenariolWorld Primary Energy Supply
20000
15000
10000
5000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year
World Primary Energy Supply20000 -Z----------------------------------------------------
15000 .
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5000
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■ Nuclears Wind&Oth.Renew
0 PhotovoltaicsE2 Hydro.&Geoih.U Biomass0 Natural Gas
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Scenario 2 Scenario 3World Primary Energy Supply
20000 y |i !
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year
World Primary Energy Supply20000 vT
15000
10000
5000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year
■ NuclearS Wind&Oth. Renew
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Scenario 4 Scenario 5World Primary Energy Supply
20000 y------------------------------------------------
■ NuclearS Wind&Oth. Renew
□ PhotovoltaicsQ Hydro.&Geoth.
□ Biomass0 Natural Gas
0 OilB Coal
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year
2.2-21H
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year
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
year
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10000
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
year
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B Depleted Gas Well E3 EOR Use
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year
Rj S.Energy/Service 1| U P.Energy/S.Energy |
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S3 10000 - -
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□ S.Energy/Service□ P.Energy/S.Energy E3 C-Gross/P.Energy
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year
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10000 „
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- A-4 -
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— A-5 —
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Type of system
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02.1-1 ##aK#(OK#t:Z'&C0 2#mM:--(OK# (Millsetal., 1991)
— A-6 —
2.1-1 VX
Coal Coal Coal Coal Natural gas Natural gasPlant type Typical
withde-SOx and
de-NOx
Supercriticalwith
de-SOx and de-NO,
IGCC IGCC with CO 2 capture
CombinedCycle
Combined Cycle with
CO 2 capture
Status Conventional
Establishedtechnology
Demonstration
Availabletechnology01
Establishedtechnology
Availabletechnology
Efficiency(%LHVy(%HHV)
40/38 45(47)/43(45)
42(46)/40(44)
36/34[34]
52(55)/47(50)
45/41[44]
Spec. Investment Cost ($/kW)(4)
1300 1740 1800 2995 750 1420
Power cost (UScent/kWh)($)
5.3 5.7 5.8 7.2 4.2 6.6
Cost of C02 avoided $/ton (6)
- - - 20 - 70
C02 emission (g C02/ kWh )
830 740 790 80 410 70
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- A-12 -
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A-15 -
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Shifting all Coal to Oil
Shifting all Coal to Natural Gas
year
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- A-17 -
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- A-18 -
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80%_t#L, -ftl±, 1 k>S*0 150 ###$
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#K#410#Wh iScky’y > hT-70g*Wh8St-irS^1-j:,Si#li45%tcfiTi"-5 =
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2.3.2 #m<7)f!iiW*
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- A-19 -
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- A-20 -
2.3-1 COalr)$*■/-> a >
Option Potential Global C02 Storage Capacity
Enhanced Oil Recovery Exhausted Gas Wells
Exhausted Oil Wells
20 GtC> 90 GtC
> 40 GtCAquifers Ocean Disposal
> 90 GtC> 1200 GtC
CO, a, %kTiZ$rM-fZ>tzl6<D*7is a $"
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Hendriks tt, 1993) 0
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- A-21 -
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1993) , y-> 3 > i: to#, C02<0#ijie^l=A# v>„ 00=9)%^-
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- A-22
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(National Academy of Science, 1993) „
- A-26 -
75 MTPU per year
10,000
Pu recycle(two recycle)
-50 MTPU per year
-20 MTPU per year
-14 MTPU per year
weapon's Pu
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090year
H 2.4-2
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- A-27 -
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A-28 -
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A-40 -
2.5.2-1
Option Feedstock Yield (dry
tonnes/ha/year)
Transport Fuel Yield (GJ/ha/year)
Transport Services Yield6
(103 v- km/ha/year)
Rape Methyl Ester (Netherlands)a 3.7 of Rapeseed 47 21 (ICEV)
EthOH from Maize (US)b 7.2 of Maize 76 27 (ICEV)
EthOH from Wheat (Netherlands)6 6.6 of Wheat 72 26 (ICEV)
EthOH from Sugar Beets (Netherlands/ 15.1 of Sugar Beets
132 48 (ICEV)
EthOH from Sugar Cane (Brazil)' 38.5 of Cane Stems
111 40 (ICEV)
EthOH, Enzymatic Hydrolysis of Wood (present technology/
15 of Wood 122 44 (ICEV)
EthOH, Enzymatic Hydrolysis of Wood (improved technology/
15 of Wood 179 64 (ICEV)
MeOH, Thermochemical Gasification of Wood8 15 of Wood 177 64/133(ICEV/FCV)
H2, Thermochemical Gasification of Wood8 15 of Wood 213 84/189(ICEV/FCV)
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TECHNOLOGYLEVEL
Technologycharacteristics
Energy balance Costs, direct Institutionalbarriers
Lifetime
Stock Average (1975 - 1990)
Three-bladedinductiongenerator
12 months 10 USc/kWh kWh- payment 20 years
Average newtechnology(1993)
Three-bladedinductiongenerator
9 months 6 USc/kWh Payment /Publicacceptance
20 years
Best newtechnology(1993)
Three-bladedinductiongenerator
9 months 5 USc/kWh Publicacceptance
20 years I
Near termtechnology(2003)
Three-bladed variable speed
6 months 4.2 USc/kWh Public acceptance / loadmanagement
20 years
Long term technology (2020)
Two-bladed variable speed, flexible stucture
6 months 3.4 USc/kWh Loadmanagement / transmission
20 years
Very long termtechnology(2050)
Variable speed, flexiblestructure, built- in storage
5 months 3.0 USc/kWh 20 years
3.5.3.5 tt£toSI8
mnwr, ®±!3'-±*><7)ESI'ti'LTtt^<05*v>to/Ct:*9 ^ R$l±, »#,
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1994/DTI, 1993) = m$(0k±6, * At# t:#f 67pt:mu ^
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- A-46 -
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A-47 -
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iZTFZtlit&’O , (Kelly, 1993/Ahmed, 1994/
INEL#, 1990/WEC, 1993a) „
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«7>2: U^XtcJ: -?XXWi%ii:%*>Z,%1tm.:E.-n&tz'3iFhZ,s ±*@»3 7,
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)]/ < Carlson t Wagner, 1993/Zweibel t Barnett, 1993) t (2) / Iw / ® S Tfc 7 X 7 A
(Boes 2: Luque, 1993) Tab-E>0
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Barnett, 1993) «
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I), 1993^Uft, ##<OPV$/##A63MW?)27% & 6 A 3. *»)i -t / i - )Vtn®>£
5 %14, 77 7 h • TV- H76fli"-BfiX9iS7)15%t71±gSv> (Kelly, 1993) „
X'OkCh, /7* • ^6/7.-)l/t:ov>T 1410%2: v/$£LL T t > £ „ a^if
-77i.-;i/(7)$Si4J±R69WSr**i), Itirogtg^S, E8B»t:tt*&tflffl«i*iMa-Si
(Gay#, 1992/Hill 2: Palz, 1994) =
- A-48 -
3.5.4-1 ±Wk
Parameter USDOE Interlaboratory White Paper* Williams and Terzian*" Zweibel and Luft*
Business-As-Usual IntensificationofRD&D
Business-As-U sual AcceleratedDevelopment
Thin-Film
Systems
Installed CapitalCost ($/ kW)
2000 3820 2540 4470 3610 3500
2005 - - 3500 2170 2000
2010 2290 1770 2770 1520 1000
2020 1530 1250 1850 1060 800
2030 1280 1010 - - 640
Busbar Cost in 2010 (cents/kWh)
® 2400 kWh/m2/year
7.56 5.88 9.07 5.01 3.46
@ 1800 kWh/m2/year
10.08 7.84 12.09 6.69 4.61
@ 1200 kWh/m2/year
15.12 11.76 18.13 10.03 6.92
Busbar Cost in 2020 (cents/kWh)
@2400kWh/m2/year
5.10 4.19 6.09 3.53 2.66
@ 1800 kWh/m2/year
6.80 5.59 8.12 4.71 3.55
@ 1200 kWh/m2/year
10.20 8.39 12.18 7.07 5.33
Busbar Cost in 2030 (cents/kWh)
@2400kWh/m2/year
4.22 3.34 - - 2.22
@ 1800 kWh/m2/year
5,62 4.46 - - 2.96
@ 1200 kWh/nf/year
8.43 6.69 - - 4.44
a tti^T ! (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory#, 1990) b fctiflFr : (Williams t Terzian, 1993) c djB<f : (Zweibel t Luft, 1993)
A-49 -
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mt txmwzlr(27.4%m#mme 2
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frfrt>b-f $ i $'$^fl-E^"S:t7|8]v>rv>6o
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(0#-$, Eto8IW#to, 6.
SHT-VrZXCov^rfi, S6Cif£*T-i$l$;5fl-rv>i,tt®Z:#Effi#SfLSttl6Z:<0
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Engelenburgt Alsema, 1994) „ -> X r A«±ti § b Z, $B <7)f5#jT*1.8$, 10%#$t
yH - iv LfzSiftcO -> X f- A -eii ttt0.6$ Z:$s 5 US (Hagedom, 1989) . #
- A-51 -
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CdTeTlil.6* , CuInSe> f li 4 A fl!: 5:4 t T'fi? (Alsema t van Engelemburg,
1992) o
mm) FVIi, jE«*aeTS*sSrlStS-a:*iiUio^< vXxAUio
rL, -en^'SijS, fijffl, tofl-KELTVx j'e
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van Engelemburg, 1992) „
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CdTe->^x^Cfflv>f>tL*x^;ui:, i < (cCuInSe2->x r A
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(#% • 0f& • ®S-fk<7)ttd#ffl> PVIi, & t o^ ^ ^
e>, %®roSg£DTI6^*)VA£-SS):ffx.4o 3%
ZWilliams iTerzian (1993) li,
isffi® t c x vtai6 4fit cofliii jb&tssau
-E-roatih LT, M56i:*>*'
to-5fi#SI$F1<0 3X Hie$to»ttdfl5tiKJt^T/b5v>h1-6„ R»%Sli,
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t: i-5S6li, LT25~4MtKJl/, $ b CW5£Fjf1ISAs50tt KA- t te o Ti'&
(WEC, 1993a) „ ft#r$,1Srt?4'$v>c CirS(03X HifKKW^Mf A###
- A-52 -
2.5.4.2
mtuyxcx or*e*n^t;tWS:i!
IT&fcwlt«?M, *®ESS'>XTA<oE-/8iEBI±,
«yi-7-S<0SE%*->y^fASrrt
toxier-, yxfAKiotu,
<0 AT-ISTOti-KjtttE"? S h i i #t :l* ;i/4r-gtjgSe*;KAj& A-/i 4) <7> <>£>.$>„ ->Xt
au, titsE*$EciiSvitt«T’roEB*5M"e*-60
A&oTllB1t&#&TV)& (WEC, 1993a, 1993/Brower, M., 1993) „
# V 7 * )V-T'j+IWB-ei±1984^7)'ii>90^K*ttr, (solar
parabolic trough technology) $rS)M L ZrMttS$(7)/B#i8'Sl1/r*t 9 * p/rM-fS e fV: !/SI'
350MW.56) o C®S*w65*f<;^IJ, v> < o*'W|6S^±Ht?#)t*56«fr7'n'>*x
9 twf, 2000¥$"CKS:Wyi#7 'y hos«*?i$ls
tl&ZtlZ&Zo
5*)Sl@)''t" 3 Slt£§itill £" -B 7 7 ■— ib KJSl±, 9 7 — l^IDt 0 ft it ?z U v — y t— [c
±i® *«£**>, -ez?###&%#LT%«ett9. ;o?7-iiiti,
Kt c-rt'T, t:-4'*W/‘t‘W:M#JBo®4I3&*7'7 > 1
(7y > Y S,moO~200MW = ) t L T S El S ft B (HilleslandkDe Laquil, 1988/
Hillesland, 1988) . #&, 0, 1990$ft##l:^ltT#tl##$
t|'x<7)#A^'l,5;t ttTv>^0 fitil, V -> - yt- k g?lS#r * 5111" B .r t ft
^B fSolar Two ProjectJ (10MW.) »s, 1995^1: ft togiEMISfr § tg L Tt'B (Von
KleinsmidhDe Laquil, 1993) 0 EWHftli, Siuyy-yTAi!3)tryf, h V
y 7 • 3-7 — • V- — yt— (volumetric air receiver) i:-tr 9 5 y 9 ffr*Etj(#r6 Sfli L ft
30MW,<0*|I7'7 > HOE^ftEOiEftftvtB (De Laquil#, 1990/Phoebus, 1990/
Haegerfft, 1994) „ ft (ft/? 7 Htl997lp(7)imKMI6^?*.gftB. t 7. 7:L;l/ftli7 t
7 7>8f%grr*', yyv-My 4> L < liffi-g-tt 9 ;Hc <t BiSmT'y > 1 (ftjlfcKfiJJl a!
l6»iaE-K^7 1- V y 9 ■ i7- • l/9-/<-?)M%&i#&ftV'B. lz->-/t-<7)tll@9
X n±$-f stl±, 7./-1P7 y T-): ->X9A;B&Aft<7)I$@ft|Xl)
ffiftft^B. (Kami, 1994) „
fflSttiBBB-T. 7 — V > / • al> -y > (parabolic dish-Stirling engine) l±, ftSIft-B
- A-53 -
LTm±T29.4%, B HT22.7% t M L T v> S (Washom,
1984) „ • Wfi • -T-/a.-;Wi2kW;<Mi>25kWtT*0, *H k gkffl
w»a#, acubok
Diver, 1993) „ *HTIi$6, ISHI&fEvX xA®iitf X 1A5**k> tlT£ 0, 1996$
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(Kaneff, 1994/Stein, 1994) „
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1993) „ #8tt#ffiSIE*fli, 1-T-tC*tg^3X HIIJzilfrjSlSLTjsO, attO/yy I-
(0tL$;i/4=--$)gi±/x^ TV 7 K • f- KT0.09~0.13 KTk/kWhT&So /<7- ■ f 7-
**±, 0.04~0.06K&/kWhkv/ $ KA,?#Jga, L
An T <7>8Sc$l±, ?= f k <) $Ffl200MW8Ed%ST-i$fiKT # S 0
A:A!U -H Itax K liiSS-iMTIiiAz'tilAnii)^ftTv& v, f 7-
a*rli-E-<0SSt#ttlci oT, fcoE ffi
imt;i±, ioo%<7$R#m* (y-7-#«) imm^E#T*So ma-^y/y • ->x
TAIi, AlSzjSKJzoTnx M%055 KAVkWh (y-y-#%) tciTT»?S$1614
& tdo Tro-yX-rAli, TV 7 K • T- KK L,
ifitiSfcfc £ T & 7 T k1 olitgT*S„
#am#m#kX7- •
mm-fyy iofASSi'^x I toAtg&iliJM* <> Az 6 O
tJtiTt'J. &»fffllikW^Ar 01,000-1,500K;/ S*f)il±,
Alffi-g-y-y X )V<7#-S-T*kWhS A: 0 0.005 KtUftT/tti S <> <0 k RS S ftT V>&, :U
Az-ffi-e-fM ?;K$:£i;:6a7SV-7-OSiJ-6-l$, $M20%mT^#aA:AA SJ®#A»$
k LTcOnX K k VXX^tv^AzA, K A)#M#A^%at3 S»
v-7- k A^tx A*<offi*t69&E@tiA>Wl;1-;h.i;f, y-y-roSiJ-B-kgAAzT'y >
±»#UJ§, ##t#k#mu, m±£5£1tltJSBT%So A:
AiL, Ag/yy KU###mi:£*fS(7A^igf SAzA, Sk»
<*coM®T*So
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- A-54 -
A-56
:3.5.4-2 |fci^W-3X HOJtK
PARABOLIC TROUGH CENTRAL RECEIVER DISH-STIRUNG80 MW, 80 MW, 200 MW, 100 MW, 200 MW, 200 MW, 200 MW, 3MW,/per 30 MW,/ per 300 MW,/per
LS-3 LS-4 LS-4
first plant first plant baseloadadvancedreceiver
yearearly remote
market
year yearearly utility
market utility market
Timeframe Present 1995-2000 2000-2005 1995 2005 2005-2010 2005-2010 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010Capital cost range 3,500- 3,000- 2,400- 4,000- 3,000- 3,500- 2,500- 5,000- 3,500- 2,000-
$/kWt 2,800 2,400 2,000 3,000 2,225 2,900 1,800 3,000 2,000 1,250Collector system
typical cost S/m2250 200 150 175-120 120-75 75 75 500-300 300-200 200-150
Annual solar-to- electric range6 13-17 percent 8-15
percent 10-16 percent 12-18percent
16-24percent
18-26percent
20-28percent
Enhanced load 25 percent 25 percent 25 percent Thermal Thermal Thermal Thermal Solar only Solar only Solar onlymatching method natural gas natural gas natural gas storage storage storage storage
Solar capacity factor 22-25 18-26 22-27 25-40 30-40 55-63 32-43 16-22 20-26 22-28range percent percent percent percent percent percent percent percent percent percent
Annual O&M cost range (/kWh
2.5-1.8 2.4-1.6 2.0-1.3 1.9-1.3 1.2-0.8 0 8-0.5 1.2-0.8 5.0-2.5 3.0-2.0 2.5-1.5
Solar LEC range' (/kWh
16.7-11.8 17.2-9.8 11.7-7.9 16.1-8.0 10.1-5.8 6.5- 4 6 8.2-4 5 32.8-14.6 18.6-8.8 10.6-5.5
Hybrid LEC range'4/kWh
13.0-9.3 13.5-7.9 9.3-6.5 - - - - - - -
a. The data in this table are compiled from several sources. The most comprehensive source is the U S DOE analysis performed lor the National Energy Plan|3, 95-98). The EEC calculations are based on a 6 percent real discount rate. They differ slightly from other EEC values given in this chapter that were calculated using different sets ol economic assumptions.
b. Typical southwest U S. site.c. Fixed charge rate - 7.8 percent.
2.5.5
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- A-62
6 ( ] = C02 emissions (relative to base case = 100)
1 23456789 10
■ Coal flGas [^Biomass ^Hydro ^ Wind ^ PV Q Thermal
1 = conventional fossil2 = best new fossil3 = advanced fossil4 = advanced fossil
with 21% hydro5 = advanced fossil
with 10% PV and 21% hydro
6 = advanced fossil with 10% intermittents and 21 % hydro7 = advanced fossil with 30% mixed intermittents (3 wind sites)8 = advanced fossil with 30% mixed intermittents (3 wind sites)
and 21 % hydro9 = advanced biomass and gas with 30% mixed intermittents
(3 wind sites) and 21 % hydro10 = advanced biomass and gas with 50% mixed intermittents
(3 wind sites) and 21% hydro
H2.6-1 It* V 7 *
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— A-64 —
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— A-65 —
Present Energy System Future Energy System»
ARCHITECTURE
EnergySector
WhatPeople
Buy
coal oil natural gas biomass sunlight uranium wind
Sources
coal oil hydro benefication mine rig dam cleaning
hydro thermal photovoltaic cell station power oil refinery
plant
electricity gasoline methane methanol hydrogen coke
electricity tanker gas district heat grid truck grid system
automobile telephone freezer PC furnace mircowave oven aircraft buildings industrial plants roads settlement patterns
Services
Currencies^ffuelsl^
ExtractionTreatment
ServiceTechnologies
ConversionTechnologies
Distribution
transportation communication health keeping warm/cold food care
non-fossil & sustainable sources based on solar and nuclear energy
harvesting collection benefication
zero GHG emission cogeneration
hydrogen electricity N
underground
efficient clean Integrated long lifetimes synergistic ;
^ low material Intensity ^ »
sustain fundamental needs of a growing world population, but better and with more options
[U2.6-2 t'/Xfi(OBE
- A-66 -
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— A-67 —
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1990/Becker t Meinecke, 1992/Williams, 1993) izi> b *3 < 0
A-68 -
A-69
2.7-1 fSSa#T»Jt«
EFFICIENCY: ELECTR. OUTPUT/
ENERGY INPUT
ENERGY BALANCE (LIFE CYCLE
BASED)
C02 INTENS.kg C02/
kWh-ELECTR.
INVESTMENT COST US$/kW-INSTALL
ELECTRICITYUS CENTS/
kWh-ELECTR.COAL-FLUID-BED-COMB. 0.4-0.45 15 0.83-0.74 1100 5.0COAL-GASIFIC. 0.42-0.46 16 0.79 1600 5.4COAL-GASIF.+FC 0.7-0.8 12 0.4-0.5 1600 5.4C0AL-GASIF.+C02 CART. 0.34-0.36 10 0.08 2480 6.7GAS-TURBINE 0.54 18 0.4 600-1400 4-5GAS-COMB. CYCLE 0.52-0.55 20 0.41 750 4.2GAS-COMB. CYCLE+FC 0.7-0.8 15 0.26-0.3 1300-1600 5-5.4GAS-C0MB.C.+C02-CAPT. 0.45-0.48 15 0.07 1510 6.3BIOMASS-DIRECT BURN. 0.4 15 0 1600 5-10BIOMASS-GASIFIC. 0.4-0.45 5 0 3000-4000 6-12MUN. SOLID WASTE BURN. 0.2-0.3 3 0.1 10 000-12 000 12-21NUCELAR-LWR 0.33 10 0.04-0.08** 2000 5.3-6.0NUCLEAR-HTR 0.5 10 0.04-0.08** 1800-3000 5-7NUCLEAR-BR 0.4 8-10 0.08-0.12** 2700-3800 6-8SOL.THERM.-TROUGH 0.13-0.17 10 0.04-0.08** 2800-3500 NOW
2000-2400 FUT.12-17 NOW8-12 FUT.
SOL.THERM:-CENTR.REC. 0.12-0.18 10 0.04-0.08** 1800-2500 FUT. 4.S-6.2 FUT.soltherm.centrrec.+ht-stoi 0.12-0.18 10 0.06-0.10** 3000-4000 4.5-6.2SOL. THERM.-PAR. DISC 0.2-0.28 10-15 0.03-0.04** 1250-2000 FUT. 6-11 FUT.SOL.PV-NOW 0.10 2-3 0.12-0.20** 7000-10 000 23-33SOL. PV-FUTURE 0.15 10 0.03** 1200 5SOL. PV-FUT.+EL.STOR. 0.12 3 0.06** 2400 10WIND 0.4 10 0.03** 900-1200 5-7HYDRO-SMALL 0.9-0.97 10-20 0.04** 2000-4000 3-6HYDRO-LARGE 0.9-0.97 20-40 0.04** 1000-2000 2-3
INDIRECT C02-EMISS. BY USING FOSSILE ENERGIES FOR CONSTRUCTION OF PLANT
2.1-2 llbS^S
FUEL INT.-COMBUST.-EN. FUEL-CELL-ELECTR. BATTERY-ELECTR.VEHICLE VEHICLE VEHICLE
EN-INVEST.: MEDIUMCRUDE FUEL COST: LOWOIL: GASOLINE EFFIC.: 0.2
C02-EMISS.: HIGH AIR-POLL: HIGHEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUM
NAT. FUEL COST: LOW LOWGAS: METHANOL EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4
C02-EMISS.: HIGH MEDIUMAIR-POLL: HIGH ZEROEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUMFUEL COST: MEDIUM MEDIUM
METHANOL EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4C02-EMISS.: ZERO ZEROAIR-POLL: HIGH ZEROEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM FUEL COST: MEDIUM
ETHANOL EFFIC.: 0.2C02-EMISS.: ZERO
BIO AIR-POLL: HIGHFUELS:
RAPE-MET.-EST.
EN-INVEST.: MEDIUM FUEL COST: MEDIUM EFFIC.: 0.2C02-EMISS.: ZERO AIR-POLL: HIGHEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUMFUEL COST: MEDIUM MEDIUM
HYDROGEN EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4C02-EMISS.: ZERO ZEROAIR-POLL: ZERO* ZEROEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUM
ELECTRO- FUEL COST: HIGH HIGHLYSIS: HYDROGEN EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4
C02-EMISS.: ZERO ZEROAIR-POLL: ZERO* ZERO
EN-INVEST.: HIGH FUEL COST: HIGH**
LEAD-ACID EFFIC.: 0.8ELECTR. C02-EMISS.: ZEROBATTERY AIR-POLL: ZEROSTOR.
NEW TYPES
EN-INVEST.: HIGH FUEL COST: HIGH** EFFIC.: 0.8C02-EMISS.: ZERO AIR-POLL: ZERO
* WITH NOX-CATALYSATOR ** INCLUD. COST OF BATTERIES
- A-70 -
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3.1-1 1/7 T U >z
Region 2025 2050 2075 2100
Nuclear
Elect. Gen.
(TWh/yr)
Nuclear
Share of
Total
Elect
(%)
Nuclear
Capacity
(GW.)
Nuclear
Elect. Gen.
(TWh/yr)
Nuclear
Share of
Total
Elect (%)
Nuclear
Capacity
(GW.)
Nuclear
Elect. Gen.
(TWh/yr)
Nuclear
Share of
Total
Elect.
(%)
Nuclear
Capacity
(GW.)
Nuclear
Elect. Gen.
(TWh/yr)
Nuclear
Share of
Total
Elect.
(%)
Nuclear
Capacity
(GW.)
Africa 56 5 8 208 10 31 434 15 66 678 20 103
Asia 1583 21 240 3672 27 556 6479 36 982 9510 45 1442
Austalasia
and New
Zealand
7 5 1 17 10 3 25 15 4 37 20 6
Eastern &
Central
Europa
1184 30 179 2187 40 331 3349 50 507 4527 60 686
Latin
America
204 10 31 849 20 98 1289 30 195 2000 40 303
Middle East 89 10 15 212 12 32 342 15 52 471 17 71
North
Amercia
1053 30 159 1525 39 231 2008 48 304 2566 57 389
Western
Europe
634 30 96 1090 45 165 1598 60 242 2159 75 327
Total 4764 23 721 9352 30 1447 15524 38 2352 21948 46 3327
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Fuel sources
Capital 0.88 2.16 1.94 - - -
Feedstock 5.58 2.58 2.73-4.10 - - -
Purchased energy 0.41 1.51 1.09 - - -
C02 Sequestration 034 0.97 -
O&M 0.61 1.36 1.39 - - -
Total production cost
7.82 8.58 7.15-8.52 - - -
Electrolytic sources*
Electricity - - - 142 11.1 10.5
Electrolysis - - - 2.3 5.4 3.9
Total production cost
- - - 16.5 16.5 14.4
Storage' - - - 02 0.8 02
Compression* - - - 1.2 1.2 1.2
Transmission - - - - - 0.3
Local distribution 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Refueling station1* 52 52 52 52 52 52
Total retail cost 13.5 143 12.9-142 23.6 24.3 21.8
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FOREST AND WOODLAND
PERMANENT PASTURE
CROPLAND
AN
T
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V « Low Nuclear V
ariantLA
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SE PATTER
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as Intensive
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Average Yield. 1985-87
Record yield (1994),Iowa Corn-Grower's Contest
Global average yield. 1987
Average yield for Zambia on 10,000 hectares. 1987
10-year average commercial yield on best 1,000 hectares
5-year average yield on experimental plot
Average commercial yield on 80,000 hectares, 1986-91
Maximum stand yield, 1986-91
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1993#) ,
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$8^# $ ti 7 v ^ >2) o
4-i
Year Total energy sector
(1990 US dollars x 109)
Renewable energy
(1990 US dollars x 109)
Renewable energy
(percent of total)
1980 11,610 1,670 14
1982 10,730 1,113 11
1984 9,430 930 10
1986 8,200 580 7
1988 7,270 540 7
1990 7,200 490 7
1991 7,970 570 7
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Energy
Policies of IEA Countries (Paris, 1991).
- A-102 -
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GLOSSARY
Acronyms
AC alternating currentAFC alkaline fuel cellAP Accelerated PoliciesBIG/GT biomass integrated gasifier / gas turbineCC combined cycleCEC Commission of the European CommunitiesCHP combined heat and power generationDC direct currentDH district heating(US)DOE (United States) Department of EnergyDTI Department of Trade and Industry (United Kingdom)EDS Electric Drive SystemEOR enhanced oil recovery(US)EPA (United States) Environmental Protection AgencyEPRI Electric Power Research Institute (United Sates)EU European UnionFCVs fuel cell vehiclesFGD fuel gas desulfurizationGCR gas cooled reactorGDP gross domestic productGEF global environmental facilityGHG greenhouse gasesGNP gross national productGT. gas turbineGTCC gas turbine combined cycleHHV higher heating valuesHNV high-nuclear variantHWR heavy water reactorIAEA International Atomic Energy AgencyICEVs internal combustion engine vehiclesIEA International Energy AgencyIFRC International Fusion Research Council (IAEA)IGCC integrated gasification combined cyclesRASA International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisINFCE International Nuclear Fuel Cycle EvaluationIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeLEC levelized energy costLESS low emissions supply systemLHV lower heating values
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LMRLNVLWRMCFCM-HTGRMOXMSWNBANGNPTNRELO&MOECDOTAOTECPAFCPCPEMPF+FGDPPPPURPAPVR&DRD&DRIGESRSWGSARSMRSOFCSPEFCT&DUK.U.S.(A.)
liquid metal cooled reactorlow-nuclear variantlight water reactormolten carbonate fuel cellmodular high temperature gas cooled reactormixed-oxide fuelmunicipal solid wasteNuclear Energy Agencynatural gasNon-Proliferation TreatyNational Renewable Energy Laboratory (United States) operation and maintenanceOrganization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOffice of Technology Assessment (United States)ocean thermal energy conversionphosphoric acid fuel cellpulverised coalproton-exchange-membranepulverised fuel+fuel gas desulphurisationpurchasing power parityPublic Utilities Regulatory Policy ActphotovoltaicResearch and DevelopmentResearch Development, and DemonstrationRenewables-Intensive Global Energy ScenarioResponse Strategies Working GroupSecond Assessment Reportsmall and medium size reactorsolid oxide fuel cellsolid polymer electrolyte fuel cellTransmission and DistributionUnited KingdomUnited States (America)
UN United NationsUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic RadiationUSSR Union of Soviet Socialist RepublicsWEC World Energy CouncilWG working groupWHO World Health OrganizationWRI World Resources InstituteWWF World Wild Fund
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Chemicals
a-Si amorphous siliconC carbonCdTe cadmium tellurideCH4 methaneCO carbon monoxideC02 carbon dioxideCuInSe2 copper indium diselenideH(H2) hydrogenH20 waterMeOH methanolN2 (N) nitrogenN20 dinitrogen monoxideNH3 ammoniaNi nickelNOx nitrogen oxides03 ozonePu plutoniumS sulfurS02 sulfur dioxideSOx sulfur oxides
Units of Measure
% percentbt billion tonneEJ exa jouleEJth exajoule thermalg grammegC gramme-carbonGJ gigajoule (109 joule)Gt gigatonneGtC gigatonne-carbonGW gigawattGW(e) gigawatt electricGWh gigawatt-hourha hectarekg kilogramme (103 gramme)km3 cubic kilometerkV kilovoltkW kilowattkWh kilowatt-hour
kWhe kilowatt-hour electrickWhth kilowatt-hour thermalm meterm2 square meterm3 cubic metermha millihectareMJ mega joule (106 joule)mpg millipicogrammeMT milliontonneMW megawattMWd megawatt dayMWe megawatt electricMWh megawatt-hourMWth megawatt-thermalPg petagramme (1015 gramme)PgC petagramme-carbonPJ petajouleppm parts per millions secondt tonnetc tonne-carbonTg teragramme (1012 gramme)TgC teragramme-carbonTWh tonwatt-hourv-km volt-kilometerWp watt-peakyr year
Currencies
$ US dollarsUS$ United States dollarsUSc United States cent
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