1994 nendo e - OSTI.GOV

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3

SUMMARY

1. Trend of Actions for Global Environment and Energy Demand/Supply

Of domestic and overseas actions against the problem of the global environment as well as associated measures for energy demand/supply taken these years, the following four efforts:

(1) Preparation of the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;

(2) Bringing the Framework Convention on Climate Changes into effect and holding Intergovernmental Negotiating Conference;

(3) Interim report of the demand/supply subcommittee of the overall energy surveying committee; and

(4) Working out the master plan for introducing new energy sources:

Are mainly examined here along with backgrounds and purposes involved as well as outline of reports.

World wide concern about the greenhouse effect on the earth continues to be at a high level, encouraging most advanced findings on this problem to be collected and summarized on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). What policies national governments should adopt against this problem begins to be discussed based on the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), with progresses expected to be made in spite of many difficulties involved.

In Japan, the interim report of the demand/supply subcommittee of the

overall energy surveying committee reveals the prospect for achieving the international pledge 2000-2010 on compatibility of reasonable economical development and sufficient energy supply with the effective carbon dioxide emission control. Demand/supply of secondary energy is also discussed in this report, including prospects for how to supply new secondary energy. The master plan for introducing new energy sources suggests guidelines and supporting actions for realizing introduction of new secondary energy sources.

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2. Investigation of Energy-Environment Models

As the problem of the global environment has become more imminent, more models to deal with the energy demand/supply in combination with environmental problems are proposed, with a view to effects of the energy demand/supply system on long-term climatic changes as well as those of optional policies on the social economy. Energy-environment models presented in literature these years in Japan and overseas were investigated, and supporting information for selected 24 of them were collected and further investigated (see Table 1).

Models to deal with effects on social economy vary in the type, including models covering a country, those covering the entire world, dynamic optimization models and static balance models. In the present study, 24 models are divided into six broad categories, including two with respect to the coverage, e.g. domestic and world wide, and three categories from the view point of the model structure, e.g. the optimization model, the economical determination model based on the general balance, and the economical determination model based on the localized balance, which are detailed below.

Optimization model:Enables optimization including maximization of the economical

development and minimization of the energy cost, given an energy supply limitation. This presents potential prices of different goods.Economical determination model based on the general balance:

Presents the process to coordinate the invested capital, available labor and production across multiple sectors of industry Economical determination model based on the localized balance:

Indirectly presents an optimal behavior to exhibit such as consumption maximization, given a demand function for goods

Models typical of each category are examined for their background on which the models has been developed, their structure and simulation results of using models, which are summarized in this paper.

Every model is interesting enough to give new findings for analyzing the link of energy demand/supply with the problem of global environment. There is a certain limit, however, when applying analysis results using these models to the real world, because simplification and averaging out of the social and economical systems and various hypotheses are contained in models.

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Table 1 Energy-Environment Models ExaminedName of Model Developer Classification

Region Structure

GODMEEM Gotoh (Kanazawa Univ.) Japan Opt. (*)

Kuroda Model Kuroda (Keioh Univ.) Japan GBConsumption Turn-Pike Tsukui (Asia Univ.) Japan GBFORECAST 21 Yamaji (CRIEPI) Japan LB

Itoh Model Itoh (IEEJ) Japan LB

Ban Model Ban (Ohsaka Univ.) Japan LB

Yamazaki Model Yamazaki (CRC Inst.) Japan LB

Mori Model Mori (Tokyo Science Univ.) Japan LB

Global 2100 Manne (Stanford Univ.), Richels (EPRI) World Opt.

New Earth 21 Fuji! (Tokyo Univ.) World Opt.

CETA Peck (EPRI), Teisberg (Teisberg Associates) World Opt.

GREEN Martin, Bumiaux (OECD) World GBWhalley-Wigle Whalley (Westeren Ontario Univ.),

Wigle (Wilford Laurier Univ.)

World GB

CRTM Rutherford (Westeren Ontario Univ.) World GBGlobal-Macro Energy Pepper (ICF, Inc.) World GBFUGI Ohnishi (Sohka Univ.) World GBG-Cubed McKibbin (Brookings Inst.) World GBEdmonds-Reilly Bams, Edmonds, Reilly

(Pacific Northwest Lab.)

World LB

EDS Vouyoukis, Kouvaritakis (IEA) World LB

DGEM Jorgenson, Wilcoxen (Harvard Univ.) World(**) GBGOULDER Goulder (StanfordUniv.) World(**) GBFOSSIL2 Belanger, Naill(Applied Energy Services) US. LB

GEMINI Cohan, Diener (Decision Focus, Inc.), Scheraga (EPA)

u.s. LB

T-GAS Kaufmann(Alliance Technologies Corp.) 14 nations Reg.

Notes: - The above classification into model structures is not the unique one, but other

classifications may be possible from different points of view.

- Abbreviations for Structure:Opt.: Optimization, GB: Economical determination (general balance),

LB: Economical determination (local balance), Reg.: Regression Model

- (*) Models showing some aspects of the economical determination model based on the

localized balance as well.

- (**) Models covering the entire world, derived from analyses basically made in the USA.

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<7)igsi (RAx-PNx) «0fn-ei*S8tL4o

- 113 -

RSVAVx>t+1 : RSVX t+1 - RSVXt + 5[(RAX t+1 - PNx>t+1) + (RAXt - PNX t)]

t = 0,...,T-1 (2-7)

RSCAVX,t+l : RSCX,t+l = RSCX,t -5 (RAx.t+l + RAx.t) ‘ =

#%ao)#mamm (rax, o i±, *isi,a«i t rdfx (*s<o%e,^(7)±e«)

RDFLIMjf t: RAX t < rdfx RSC^ t = 0,...,T (2-9)

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(d)

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- 115 -

SUPNONt : ^PNi|t + GNt-PNgas.1C|t-PNgas„hC]t >

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1=0

(2-15)

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----- — (XPN: .)ncapfyr

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t = 1.....T

(2-17)

116 -

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Annual Percent

CHINA

ROW

SU-EE

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

£2. 2-20 iS6GDP®fi*

thousand BTUs/dollar

USA OOECD SU-EE China ROW

£2.2-30 £-<fc.x*;l'4r-/GDP

holts

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- 118

5i>c<7>£e*<9_h#*t± GDP <£>±#=£<020% t l*„

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52.2-1;

TechnologyName

Earliest Possible e Introduction Date Identification

ElectricTechnologies

Existing:

HYDRO Hydroelectric, geothermal and other renewables

GAS-R Remaining initial gas-firedOlUR Remaining initial oil-firedCOAUR Remaining initial coal-firedNUC-R Remaining initial nuclear

New;

GAS-N 1995 Advanced combined cycle, gas- fire d

COAJUN 1990 New coal-firedADV-HC 2010 High cost non-carbon basedADV-LC 2010 Low cost non-carbon based

• Estimated year when the technology could provide .1 trillion kWh (approximately 20GW of installed capacity at 60% capacity factor).

#2.2-2#E #%%####

TechnologyName Description

Carbon emission coefficient, tons of carbon per million BTU of crude oil equivalent*

Unit Cost1988 $ per million BTU of crude oil equivalent

OIL-MX Oil imports - exports .0203 3.30 in 1990, rising to 15 from 2030 onward

CLOU Coal - direct uses .0251 2.00bOIL-LC Oil - low cost .0203 2-50c

U0c'dGAS-LC Natural gas - low cost .0145OIUIIC Oil - high cost .0203 6.00GAS-I1C Natural gas - high cost .0145 5.00°SYNF Synthetic fuels .0408 10.00NE-BAK Nonelectric backstop .0000 20.00

Notes: a. Source of carbon emission coefficients: Edmonds and Reilly (1985). b. CLDU costs arc only $1.00 per million BTU in China, c. OIULC costs arc only $0.50 per million BTU in ROW. Similarly, GAS-LC costs arc only $1.00 per million BTU in ROW. d. To allow for bumcr-tip equivalence, an additional $1.25 per million BTU is added to allow for gas distribution costs.

- 119

Components add up to rate ol GDP growthcoto

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(2-18)

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Energy System

#

Primary EnergyNiilui.il OilsOilCoulUnamvein ional OilRiomass EnergyHydro & Geothermal EnergyPhotovoliaicsWind & Oilier Renewable Energy Nuclear Energy

Electric Power PlantHi Fueled Power Plant Natural Gas Fired Power Plant Oil Fired Power Plant Coal Fired Power Plant Biomass Fired Power Plant Methanol Fired Power Plant IGCC with COtz Recovery Plant Electricity Storage Facility

Other Technologies

Chemical PlantOil Refinery (Distillation)Oil Refinery (Cracking. Reforming) Unconventional Oil Upgrading Plant Natural Gas Splitting Plant (into I ll and CO) Oil Splitting Plant (into Hi and CO)Coal Gasification Plant (into Hi and CO) Coal Liquefaction Plant (into Oil)Biomass Gasification Plant (into Hi and CO) Biomass Liquefaction Plant (into Oil)Shift Converter (CO+HiO -» Hl+COi) Methane Synthesis Plant (from.Hi and COi) Methanol Synthesis Pkuit (from Hi and CO) Methanol Synthesis Plant (from Hi and COi) Methanol Upgrading Plant (into Gasoline)

Water ElectrolysisCOi Recovery from Flue Gas(chemical absorption)COi Recovery from Fuel Gas(physical absorption)Hi Liquefaction Plant (for long range ocean transport)CH 4 Liquefaction Plant (for long range ocean transport)COi Liquefaction Plant (for long range ocean transport and ocean disposal) Hi Transportation (by tankers and/or pipe-lines)CH4Transportation (by tankers and/or pipe lines)COlTransportation (by tankers and/or pipe lines)

Final Consumption and Energy Conservation

Gasoline for Automobile Automotive Diesel Oil Jet FuelLight Fuel Oil for Industry Heavy Fuel Oil for Industry Light Fuel Oil for I louschold Gas for Industry Gas for I louschold Coaking Coal Steam Coal Electricity for Industry Electricity for Household

CO2 DisposalCOi Ocean Disposal (injected at a depth of more than 3000m below sea level) COi Subterranean Disposal (injected into depleted gas, oil wells, and Aquifer)

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- 131 -

2.2-3^ (Unit:GTOE) 1985$*^^

World Region Coal Oil Natural GasNorth America 876.61 32.03 42.67

Western Europe 494.24 9.44 9.10Japan 5.43 0.01 0.03

Oceania 391.45 1.28 1.20Centrally Planned Economy Asia 468.46 9.36 1.66

Other Asia 122.83 7.11 7.12Middle East & Northern Africa 7.40 85.38 36.83

Subsaharan Africa 154.26 8.88 3.06Latin America 25.50 31.84 11.23

Former USSR & Eastern Europe 2742.40 47.21 118.46

World Total 5288.58 232.53 231.35

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Crude Oil Natural Gas

vi 300

Cumulative Prodution from 1990 Onward(billions TOE)

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i2.2-3. (Unit : Gton of Carbon)

World Region Enhanced Oil Recovery Depleted Natural Gas Well AquiferNorth America 2.10 4.26 -14.22 9.93

Western Europe 0.55 0.76 - 2.88 2.78Japan 0.00 0.00 - 0.01 0.14

Oceania 0.07 0.05 - 0.33 10.06Centrally Planned Asia 0.45 0.05 - 0.50 4.82

Other Asia 0.33 0.25 - 1.91 6.98Middle East & Northern Africa 2.05 0.74 - 9.37 6.44

Other Africa 0.29 0.08 - 0.76 17.45Latin America 1.82 0.34 - 2.96 14.7

Former USSR & Eastern Europe 1.59 1.66 -29.31 14.02

World Total 9.24 8.20 -62.24 87.33

/\ ##63 1241

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- 134 -

Imported CO2

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CCh Recovery

Fossil Fuel j_ Gasification Plant/'

COiChemical I Recovery j

SELEXOL [ Process |

Compression

SELEXOL !

Process |

! Liquefaction

Methanol Synthesis

Enhanced Oil Recovery

Depleted Gas Well

Aquifer

Export by Pipeline

Ocean Disposal

Export by Tanker

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—D— LNG—m— NG Pipeline—6— Oil—■— Coal—d— Methanol

Electricity--- &--- Liquefied CO 2

-----A— CQ Pipeline

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000Distance (km)

S2.2-17H h (jtm [25]

- 135 -

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SELEXOL i Process

ShiftReactor

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Oil Cracking •

SELEXOLShiftReactor

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CoalGasification

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: SELEXOL Process

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CO: Recovered

2.2-18® y^fA

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- 138 -

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Average Growth Case

I WO 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year

(— FUSSR&E.Europe " Latin America

----°— Sub-saharan Africa—■— M.Eait&N Africa —— Other Alia —*— C.P.E. Asia—a— Oceania—o— Japan

Western EuropeNorth America

Average Growth Case

I01 104 10'

GNP per Capita (US Vperson)

S2.2-19IH V ^ (Average Growth Case)

- 139 -

2.2-4$ SSLfcyftV*

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Base Case ELScenario 1 100($/ton-C)T*—5e ELScenario 2 200($/ton-C)T*-£ ELScenario 3 50(S/ton-C/decade) Ti@S0 ELScenario 4 100($/ton-C/decade)TiStiO ELScenario 5 100(S/ton-C/decade) "Ctf SO WO

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- 140 -

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Average Growth Case

Base Case ScenariolWorld Primary Energy Supply

20000

15000

10000

5000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year

World Primary Energy Supply20000 -Z----------------------------------------------------

15000 .

10000 -/\

5000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year

■ Nuclears Wind&Oth.Renew

0 PhotovoltaicsE2 Hydro.&Geoih.U Biomass0 Natural Gas

B OilB Coal

Scenario 2 Scenario 3World Primary Energy Supply

20000 y |i !

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year

World Primary Energy Supply20000 vT

15000

10000

5000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year

■ NuclearS Wind&Oth. Renew

0 Photovoltaics2 Hydro.&Geoth.□ BiomassQ Natural Gas0 Oila Coal

Scenario 4 Scenario 5World Primary Energy Supply

20000 y------------------------------------------------

■ NuclearS Wind&Oth. Renew

□ PhotovoltaicsQ Hydro.&Geoth.

□ Biomass0 Natural Gas

0 OilB Coal

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year

2.2-21H

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

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10000 J/" □ Ocean

g Depleted Gas Well 0 EOR Use

□ Aquifer0 Net Emission

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

Scenario 215000

10000

5000

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

Scenario 3

□ Ocean

g Depleted Gas Well Q EOR Use

0 Aquifer 8 Net Emission

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

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10000 v

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

15000 y

10000

5000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

□ Ocean

B Depleted Gas Well E3 EOR Use

Q Aquifer H Net Emission

year

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- 144

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year

Rj S.Energy/Service 1| U P.Energy/S.Energy |

| £3 C-Gross/P.Energy j j 2/ C-Net/C-Gross j

j S Net Emission

Scenario 315000

S3 10000 - -

5000 J

□ S.Energy/Service□ P.Energy/S.Energy E3 C-Gross/P.Energy

Q C-Net/C-GrossB Net Emission

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year

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10000 „

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year

15000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year

! □ S.Energy/Service j| D P.Energy/S.Energy j

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(2.

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— A-5 —

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Type of system

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— A-6 —

2.1-1 VX

Coal Coal Coal Coal Natural gas Natural gasPlant type Typical

withde-SOx and

de-NOx

Supercriticalwith

de-SOx and de-NO,

IGCC IGCC with CO 2 capture

CombinedCycle

Combined Cycle with

CO 2 capture

Status Conven­tional

Establishedtechnology

Demon­stration

Availabletechnology01

Establishedtechnology

Availabletechnology

Efficiency(%LHVy(%HHV)

40/38 45(47)/43(45)

42(46)/40(44)

36/34[34]

52(55)/47(50)

45/41[44]

Spec. Investment Cost ($/kW)(4)

1300 1740 1800 2995 750 1420

Power cost (UScent/kWh)($)

5.3 5.7 5.8 7.2 4.2 6.6

Cost of C02 avoided $/ton (6)

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C02 emission (g C02/ kWh )

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- A-20 -

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Option Potential Global C02 Storage Capacity

Enhanced Oil Recovery Exhausted Gas Wells

Exhausted Oil Wells

20 GtC> 90 GtC

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> 90 GtC> 1200 GtC

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- A-26 -

75 MTPU per year

10,000

Pu recycle(two recycle)

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weapon's Pu

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090year

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A-28 -

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A-40 -

2.5.2-1

Option Feedstock Yield (dry

tonnes/ha/year)

Transport Fuel Yield (GJ/ha/year)

Transport Services Yield6

(103 v- km/ha/year)

Rape Methyl Ester (Netherlands)a 3.7 of Rapeseed 47 21 (ICEV)

EthOH from Maize (US)b 7.2 of Maize 76 27 (ICEV)

EthOH from Wheat (Netherlands)6 6.6 of Wheat 72 26 (ICEV)

EthOH from Sugar Beets (Netherlands/ 15.1 of Sugar Beets

132 48 (ICEV)

EthOH from Sugar Cane (Brazil)' 38.5 of Cane Stems

111 40 (ICEV)

EthOH, Enzymatic Hydrolysis of Wood (present technology/

15 of Wood 122 44 (ICEV)

EthOH, Enzymatic Hydrolysis of Wood (improved technology/

15 of Wood 179 64 (ICEV)

MeOH, Thermochemical Gasification of Wood8 15 of Wood 177 64/133(ICEV/FCV)

H2, Thermochemical Gasification of Wood8 15 of Wood 213 84/189(ICEV/FCV)

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TECHNOLOGYLEVEL

Technologycharacteristics

Energy balance Costs, direct Institutionalbarriers

Lifetime

Stock Average (1975 - 1990)

Three-bladedinductiongenerator

12 months 10 USc/kWh kWh- payment 20 years

Average newtechnology(1993)

Three-bladedinductiongenerator

9 months 6 USc/kWh Payment /Publicacceptance

20 years

Best newtechnology(1993)

Three-bladedinductiongenerator

9 months 5 USc/kWh Publicacceptance

20 years I

Near termtechnology(2003)

Three-bladed variable speed

6 months 4.2 USc/kWh Public acceptance / loadmanagement

20 years

Long term technology (2020)

Two-bladed variable speed, flexible stucture

6 months 3.4 USc/kWh Loadmanagement / transmission

20 years

Very long termtechnology(2050)

Variable speed, flexiblestructure, built- in storage

5 months 3.0 USc/kWh 20 years

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(Boes 2: Luque, 1993) Tab-E>0

<$HtVs/x) SK/vs/ AdPVStt#5FI-li, o.5m2a±<7ffi«(7)^/i-;n;igL

(H/5 7S) l:16#5-ti:^, fAl~2S7D>®|fi40 #&<?#&*#

14, V 7 71:^6^, *^5: < TStr?S14##l±,

•e#S/<&V'3X > i'MftLX % (CarsonhWagner, 1993/Zweibel t

Barnett, 1993) «

7W7T7-y'/7 (a-Si) 14, ig#fttc«t3;§4i/.:;$M£#rt Lxm~<r>i>nxh

I), 1993^Uft, ##<OPV$/##A63MW?)27% & 6 A 3. *»)i -t / i - )Vtn®>£

5 %14, 77 7 h • TV- H76fli"-BfiX9iS7)15%t71±gSv> (Kelly, 1993) „

X'OkCh, /7* • ^6/7.-)l/t:ov>T 1410%2: v/$£LL T t > £ „ a^if

-77i.-;i/(7)$Si4J±R69WSr**i), Itirogtg^S, E8B»t:tt*&tflffl«i*iMa-Si

(Gay#, 1992/Hill 2: Palz, 1994) =

- A-48 -

3.5.4-1 ±Wk

Parameter USDOE Interlaboratory White Paper* Williams and Terzian*" Zweibel and Luft*

Business-As-Usual IntensificationofRD&D

Business-As-U sual AcceleratedDevelopment

Thin-Film

Systems

Installed CapitalCost ($/ kW)

2000 3820 2540 4470 3610 3500

2005 - - 3500 2170 2000

2010 2290 1770 2770 1520 1000

2020 1530 1250 1850 1060 800

2030 1280 1010 - - 640

Busbar Cost in 2010 (cents/kWh)

® 2400 kWh/m2/year

7.56 5.88 9.07 5.01 3.46

@ 1800 kWh/m2/year

10.08 7.84 12.09 6.69 4.61

@ 1200 kWh/m2/year

15.12 11.76 18.13 10.03 6.92

Busbar Cost in 2020 (cents/kWh)

@2400kWh/m2/year

5.10 4.19 6.09 3.53 2.66

@ 1800 kWh/m2/year

6.80 5.59 8.12 4.71 3.55

@ 1200 kWh/m2/year

10.20 8.39 12.18 7.07 5.33

Busbar Cost in 2030 (cents/kWh)

@2400kWh/m2/year

4.22 3.34 - - 2.22

@ 1800 kWh/m2/year

5,62 4.46 - - 2.96

@ 1200 kWh/nf/year

8.43 6.69 - - 4.44

a tti^T ! (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory#, 1990) b fctiflFr : (Williams t Terzian, 1993) c djB<f : (Zweibel t Luft, 1993)

A-49 -

a-Sii Vi i 10% £j@x. X S b tc t'tOfISiltr frIJ5g(i* v>« Lt)>L,

15%Oi®ilEea&6-5SES#r»$^'^ < k 1 a-SifcligiJt:, CuInSe2 t

CdTe«^*-2«#eBHB}i#f75s^aT'4)4 (ZweibeltBarnett, 1993) „ BBfSffiS&lia-Sli t

■?*v>tc-£J:, S3&B#4:;*LTv-5>o CuInSe2 A16 %^ 17%

SE'X, CdTe^8%7)^16%@K^h|6]±LTHb (02.5.4-2) , IbAtoot^ya

tiZ:S?%?LZ:)8j$li, i"T*Ua-Sit=*S51tZ:co):0^^-$-#i5-±0-5o

FV85:#rli, 1/ i:ti#r¥ifr 6ii CZ: 3 x h|fiJS<OW

Zl##?&-5 (CodyfcTiedje, 1992/Tsuchiya, 1989) 0 Z) B C)CuInSe,t£'4j tr Am///

1 ZtifrbWjgZit

ZitOIi, (1)1995^ S to CuInSe 2 Ji* t-x-X ic LZrSOMWam/x > M±,

2,300/kW, J: v>iftj*r*#()0.08ZkWh, (2)itiZjl: k'-XSA

z 9 ^tesrKyx > -5-<os*<o«

W t± *A> Sftt t: h o T&-l:v>-H<0-r-*.pZ,: (Williams, 1994e) „

&#-&, pvyx^A&#*M^%%#to^6ii cmmifr'Mz

iktoatt^v>Ltti®tOMStv'oZ;, $ij)##l:av'):C61:Rmi-'&Ch-p, %*##)#

A(:8lt&PV<0@#ei@&& C k t@4rl:LToim?*6. FVtitiAlk^ttAT'-yXTAtO

*wZf(0*#Z,m@l:'KZ:A.^#mrf i LZ:»m&)#to^AA^ t Alf, FV**t±, *

<±0^«e^ <>o (Shugar, 1990/KellytWeinberg,

1993) o f #±, PV^/I: £ * Z> (M :

, yXfiiofflllJ ‘5tc#J£tc£-&0 S«-1/%$E

@E/»®a<opvii, *ma*#A±mto#<

6 (Williams iTerzian, 1993) o

s^stiicz-nx imm&Bim/z o

l>-Ki:*LV'ZA *11 to r^Bs^wtg^*

/*"—BfJSfUrJ (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) C A1) & iS.8S7‘n X 7 A toil/FS

l±, 20101F$ -eK -y X T A <0t»n,000 K(WkWCfiT L, *E6tHCI±600 ~ 700 K;k

/KW/&£ (*2.5.4-l„ Zweibel iLuft, 1993) »

<*B • iSSPVSS) *SBHaPVtt«ft)Bv^ i, SEIi»-eS65ri6>k*ii**S < ±0

Ztymtf'&btl&o -f-r-tc, fe^B-y ') 3 XT-28%, ##Ml:#AmiaAAA/V » A • K

- A-50

*Z»*i; x a ■ r > 8nr j= t), ffEtocii-l?)

C ? Ltm#li, SJEZV'Z x i 0 -i$Z: n x f rffrfr£,)<_

2 -1,000® !-*$§-*£ r Zrtnx H6fiS"eS5.= tvZ

- Me £* £t;®<D 3 x Hi, r OfcjWlc i zfiT L, $/z, **SBliS<iE«S

BradaridtS (1992) K i o T50MW,%St"x > ft'EltSilTv-E,**, iftli, 1995$

mt txmwzlr(27.4%m#mme 2

mv-3) »fJffl4r^-xt;L*<)»T**40 ElfSK i 6SSESSfflli, *»4i-e->'

jL;l/-;K7)j*-g"t-gj3,200 Hk/kW, -eflClftSt-BITlSffl (*m^$V»%%) i±ft0.09

K;l//kWht*-3Xv>-6„ $ff<0FVm?6E«6 V' T M5§4- <7>$S (lkW) r**l$S,

(10 : 1) ^SI6iiKF->XTAT-fc, SB<03X h h LTE#<o$SJ»s»5ftrv>

& (Williams, 1994e) „

hifi, ##%&#li, 77H ■ fk-KoilfvZifW, *tttfflI8»jiiHiili:

frfrt>b-f $ i $'$^fl-E^"S:t7|8]v>rv>6o

(7f7t'f?ii'9lr> Fvzxf AtcMt&xi' x-OZ f ;kMi!<c#Bli,

CE«*8«, SSPttitt, *07 ^ of ill Z Milt -£ *« 69®Jte T* * ^ o

OTBMIi, (Im'iDf 9\%-;l/e#iSt6(DI:&#»-*J:$,t/f-(:%

%-fy'y ffO-yXT-UlXS^iJDx.ytfcro) h (lm'Wty'i-il/MStStflCiot

E#gfi6fK##x.t;k$-</)$) LTS#J(U, tyz-

<M#t3

t LTv>£0 ->V3> • f-vUXtoig-g-, @ ixwa l± Wbbb "6 -t JL - )V -e 5 ~ 10$, #■*§

ya-ll-f 3 - 5$, a-Si« Zi-)UT*0.5~ 2 $ Z: vZ $t$f, 5 $ 5"t &BF3E£if

EC Lf-:l$-e$5fLTv>^ (von Meier, 1994) „ f4SJIZ:#*oBBB$:fBvZ1:?§*7'x > f

(0#-$, Eto8IW#to, 6.

SHT-VrZXCov^rfi, S6Cif£*T-i$l$;5fl-rv>i,tt®Z:#Effi#SfLSttl6Z:<0

a-Si-tvi-^Wit^+'-EiRMPflli, 6%

1Z:?2.5$, -etLtif LT, !0%#$f rSSt

-XJ #f$t0.5$Z:#S$fi& (iteS^frcoVtSjBSfltVOOkWm2 Z: LT) (van

Engelenburgt Alsema, 1994) „ -> X r A«±ti § b Z, $B <7)f5#jT*1.8$, 10%#$t

yH - iv LfzSiftcO -> X f- A -eii ttt0.6$ Z:$s 5 US (Hagedom, 1989) . #

- A-51 -

vzL-;]/&#*t L*0JRWMIi, £*8H& b,

CdTeTlil.6* , CuInSe> f li 4 A fl!: 5:4 t T'fi? (Alsema t van Engelemburg,

1992) o

mm) FVIi, jE«*aeTS*sSrlStS-a:*iiUio^< vXxAUio

rL, -en^'SijS, fijffl, tofl-KELTVx j'e

rf$>Z0 y')n>PV->^f-MH*t>t7-f 7t-f ■ V % ^ Ii6f

(Sorensen fc Watt, 1993) „ L^L, CdTefVW X CD * K 5 <y A tCuInSe2 rsU X w-b

?;us*u*v>^e ->*

«B£1fclt7»t5£)*<bibft.E> (Alsemai:

van Engelemburg, 1992) „

<«*> •> V 3>*)iv>6PV'>X'rAlC-DV>TI±#i6±(0W;!j:$o7(:< &v>0 ###-

CdTe->^x^Cfflv>f>tL*x^;ui:, i < (cCuInSe2->x r A

I'bti&'f >y »at*4>^0 ^ tv s, (OS*f7)?##S#<y^^4='- ESIK jov>rSg^f$

WJi'Sb l~li, V "4" 4 f 6 (Alsema t van Engelemburg, 1992) 0

(#% • 0f& • ®S-fk<7)ttd#ffl> PVIi, & t o^ ^ ^

e>, %®roSg£DTI6^*)VA£-SS):ffx.4o 3%

ZWilliams iTerzian (1993) li,

isffi® t c x vtai6 4fit cofliii jb&tssau

-E-roatih LT, M56i:*>*'

to-5fi#SI$F1<0 3X Hie$to»ttdfl5tiKJt^T/b5v>h1-6„ R»%Sli,

T-400GW.WPV|g«S»»M*S:*S1‘4*J62020^S-Clc*Rt LT,

¥v>®B-ero-lroBF%M%K^Mioe Kiv, $(,!:, #$#$*#mmt=*&##T33

« K;i/*fl,a-DTv>6. crojEEli, PVR#V)m#fkl:&gh gfi6

t: i-5S6li, LT25~4MtKJl/, $ b CW5£Fjf1ISAs50tt KA- t te o Ti'&

(WEC, 1993a) „ ft#r$,1Srt?4'$v>c CirS(03X HifKKW^Mf A###

- A-52 -

2.5.4.2

mtuyxcx or*e*n^t;tWS:i!

IT&fcwlt«?M, *®ESS'>XTA<oE-/8iEBI±,

«yi-7-S<0SE%*->y^fASrrt

toxier-, yxfAKiotu,

<0 AT-ISTOti-KjtttE"? S h i i #t :l* ;i/4r-gtjgSe*;KAj& A-/i 4) <7> <>£>.$>„ ->Xt

au, titsE*$EciiSvitt«T’roEB*5M"e*-60

A&oTllB1t&#&TV)& (WEC, 1993a, 1993/Brower, M., 1993) „

# V 7 * )V-T'j+IWB-ei±1984^7)'ii>90^K*ttr, (solar

parabolic trough technology) $rS)M L ZrMttS$(7)/B#i8'Sl1/r*t 9 * p/rM-fS e fV: !/SI'

350MW.56) o C®S*w65*f<;^IJ, v> < o*'W|6S^±Ht?#)t*56«fr7'n'>*x

9 twf, 2000¥$"CKS:Wyi#7 'y hos«*?i$ls

tl&ZtlZ&Zo

5*)Sl@)''t" 3 Slt£§itill £" -B 7 7 ■— ib KJSl±, 9 7 — l^IDt 0 ft it ?z U v — y t— [c

±i® *«£**>, -ez?###&%#LT%«ett9. ;o?7-iiiti,

Kt c-rt'T, t:-4'*W/‘t‘W:M#JBo®4I3&*7'7 > 1

(7y > Y S,moO~200MW = ) t L T S El S ft B (HilleslandkDe Laquil, 1988/

Hillesland, 1988) . #&, 0, 1990$ft##l:^ltT#tl##$

t|'x<7)#A^'l,5;t ttTv>^0 fitil, V -> - yt- k g?lS#r * 5111" B .r t ft

^B fSolar Two ProjectJ (10MW.) »s, 1995^1: ft togiEMISfr § tg L Tt'B (Von

KleinsmidhDe Laquil, 1993) 0 EWHftli, Siuyy-yTAi!3)tryf, h V

y 7 • 3-7 — • V- — yt— (volumetric air receiver) i:-tr 9 5 y 9 ffr*Etj(#r6 Sfli L ft

30MW,<0*|I7'7 > HOE^ftEOiEftftvtB (De Laquil#, 1990/Phoebus, 1990/

Haegerfft, 1994) „ ft (ft/? 7 Htl997lp(7)imKMI6^?*.gftB. t 7. 7:L;l/ftli7 t

7 7>8f%grr*', yyv-My 4> L < liffi-g-tt 9 ;Hc <t BiSmT'y > 1 (ftjlfcKfiJJl a!

l6»iaE-K^7 1- V y 9 ■ i7- • l/9-/<-?)M%&i#&ftV'B. lz->-/t-<7)tll@9

X n±$-f stl±, 7./-1P7 y T-): ->X9A;B&Aft<7)I$@ft|Xl)

ffiftft^B. (Kami, 1994) „

fflSttiBBB-T. 7 — V > / • al> -y > (parabolic dish-Stirling engine) l±, ftSIft-B

- A-53 -

LTm±T29.4%, B HT22.7% t M L T v> S (Washom,

1984) „ • Wfi • -T-/a.-;Wi2kW;<Mi>25kWtT*0, *H k gkffl

w»a#, acubok

Diver, 1993) „ *HTIi$6, ISHI&fEvX xA®iitf X 1A5**k> tlT£ 0, 1996$

Kit, ftfflW-yxx.kWiaiS'ltAKIIS'tS bokfflt# £tii>0 t-x K 7 V TX’li, Mk±

KI£eS:h-/.:$a$js,%e7'7 > K£iSt£tS50kWma**->XTA;<>?:*-X )7')TB

(Kaneff, 1994/Stein, 1994) „

S2.5.4-2IJ, *eSi6Stt#j<7)3X 1 tamzf-wi IK (De Laquil-(6,

1993) „ #8tt#ffiSIE*fli, 1-T-tC*tg^3X HIIJzilfrjSlSLTjsO, attO/yy I-

(0tL$;i/4=--$)gi±/x^ TV 7 K • f- KT0.09~0.13 KTk/kWhT&So /<7- ■ f 7-

**±, 0.04~0.06K&/kWhkv/ $ KA,?#Jga, L

An T <7>8Sc$l±, ?= f k <) $Ffl200MW8Ed%ST-i$fiKT # S 0

A:A!U -H Itax K liiSS-iMTIiiAz'tilAnii)^ftTv& v, f 7-

a*rli-E-<0SSt#ttlci oT, fcoE ffi

imt;i±, ioo%<7$R#m* (y-7-#«) imm^E#T*So ma-^y/y • ->x

TAIi, AlSzjSKJzoTnx M%055 KAVkWh (y-y-#%) tciTT»?S$1614

& tdo Tro-yX-rAli, TV 7 K • T- KK L,

ifitiSfcfc £ T & 7 T k1 olitgT*S„

#am#m#kX7- •

mm-fyy iofASSi'^x I toAtg&iliJM* <> Az 6 O

tJtiTt'J. &»fffllikW^Ar 01,000-1,500K;/ S*f)il±,

Alffi-g-y-y X )V<7#-S-T*kWhS A: 0 0.005 KtUftT/tti S <> <0 k RS S ftT V>&, :U

Az-ffi-e-fM ?;K$:£i;:6a7SV-7-OSiJ-6-l$, $M20%mT^#aA:AA SJ®#A»$

k LTcOnX K k VXX^tv^AzA, K A)#M#A^%at3 S»

v-7- k A^tx A*<offi*t69&E@tiA>Wl;1-;h.i;f, y-y-roSiJ-B-kgAAzT'y >

±»#UJ§, ##t#k#mu, m±£5£1tltJSBT%So A:

AiL, Ag/yy KU###mi:£*fS(7A^igf SAzA, Sk»

<*coM®T*So

±IB<7*®B->x-r Ali, tx#&t/A! 0, -fc y K 7;k • v->

- A-54 -

c ^ t: t ^60

- A-55 -

A-56

:3.5.4-2 |fci^W-3X HOJtK

PARABOLIC TROUGH CENTRAL RECEIVER DISH-STIRUNG80 MW, 80 MW, 200 MW, 100 MW, 200 MW, 200 MW, 200 MW, 3MW,/per 30 MW,/ per 300 MW,/per

LS-3 LS-4 LS-4

first plant first plant baseloadadvancedreceiver

yearearly remote

market

year yearearly utility

market utility market

Timeframe Present 1995-2000 2000-2005 1995 2005 2005-2010 2005-2010 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010Capital cost range 3,500- 3,000- 2,400- 4,000- 3,000- 3,500- 2,500- 5,000- 3,500- 2,000-

$/kWt 2,800 2,400 2,000 3,000 2,225 2,900 1,800 3,000 2,000 1,250Collector system

typical cost S/m2250 200 150 175-120 120-75 75 75 500-300 300-200 200-150

Annual solar-to- electric range6 13-17 percent 8-15

percent 10-16 percent 12-18percent

16-24percent

18-26percent

20-28percent

Enhanced load 25 percent 25 percent 25 percent Thermal Thermal Thermal Thermal Solar only Solar only Solar onlymatching method natural gas natural gas natural gas storage storage storage storage

Solar capacity factor 22-25 18-26 22-27 25-40 30-40 55-63 32-43 16-22 20-26 22-28range percent percent percent percent percent percent percent percent percent percent

Annual O&M cost range (/kWh

2.5-1.8 2.4-1.6 2.0-1.3 1.9-1.3 1.2-0.8 0 8-0.5 1.2-0.8 5.0-2.5 3.0-2.0 2.5-1.5

Solar LEC range' (/kWh

16.7-11.8 17.2-9.8 11.7-7.9 16.1-8.0 10.1-5.8 6.5- 4 6 8.2-4 5 32.8-14.6 18.6-8.8 10.6-5.5

Hybrid LEC range'4/kWh

13.0-9.3 13.5-7.9 9.3-6.5 - - - - - - -

a. The data in this table are compiled from several sources. The most comprehensive source is the U S DOE analysis performed lor the National Energy Plan|3, 95-98). The EEC calculations are based on a 6 percent real discount rate. They differ slightly from other EEC values given in this chapter that were calculated using different sets ol economic assumptions.

b. Typical southwest U S. site.c. Fixed charge rate - 7.8 percent.

2.5.5

- a# - ##iBiW*&#tz#6##L, -1K6-J

1Z iiiS; • 41 <7> 7°n 7 7 ^ & Z. 6 (Z & .& 0 V — *7 —|I1 $E 6 V " 7 T

7 Jt-^SrensenlzJ; oTEStiTV'-E, (1979) „ iSltg*iy7fl>[:i IflTOtW*

-2) o

(##%###) T * y 5i6WJm 6 ^ - x tz l /z v - 7 - •

(SSbto^^^yXTA) i»<7)K:it<=,

V —7—S, ftlfcivillft t'ff&i ( [Human Settlements Mitigation Options] &

#.B8) „

• yX-rA6*tSUZl/z,

m#, * (#*@6#&) . g, Mtz£ft&zL7;p7-c7)flf« (Roseen, 1978) t, #

?iy7fA S1^»SI.

wry?, **-ei±, v-9-*s$»5$c#<EB5nTv^0 i$ssei±, isjc

£v%mj&t£m<om-?i>±£ <m%Zo f im 7»?2kWhZcap

(Mack, 1993) , r >7-7 Z50kWhZcap (Danish DoE, 1992) , 7 V y yAf290kWhZ

cap (Andritsopoulos, 1993) tZ-oX^&o 7 V y

####C-tSkWt-^ISl,812kWhZm21?S>-S.„

chST-li, V - 5 - • ri* ;tiOl£Bii>s0.0014m 2 Zcap, V-7-iaS»SaPIii5

0.00018m2Zcapt #£ S ft -6 (Weide, 1991) . 7IS500kWhZm'^-XTU, /'Zwu®i|

li7Hfl0.7kWhZcapT\ gfcm6*l®tzTIII.E>o

* 7 y a > 6 if»iz ff(17 & tz l±, 7 y Z)k 6 * -5. -> 7. t a tJTKM ft

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T&$to& 2fl3i<7)yXTAl#J$"e&-E.„

(t27)n> arnmm, s^s-tr^y- ha<ov-y-*ati„ s^Ett*oee/9o

R#r%## : 3K%iR# (selective surtase absorber) 6 ifl v > Zz /' 7' 4 rrr

##7, 300V v y7lz##$ftftw3.

zc.7;y7-%£l:li, 7FS2,000kWh (7>v-» ^t>3,000kWh (0’J7) »ST,

%##$WA50% (DTI, 1993) o ZC'/XtAIJ, ¥H<7)^S|ifl-Z-ltSE<0#6i?ES6S

Zz7o

- A-57 -

: g?*#' ^?»IS, 7"f 3

#ffl(ift6,000K)Uo (DTI, 1993) „

: li:loTB, v - 7 - *«i$ 6 § it A n -5 7:»17) a Sii <0 $iH»s-ji;-S r*

*6. y-7- ' 7%TA(7)###?(7)$ljat$gLT##Ae4-ATw6atV'<

o

ghgwsw : l*v>®-&(±,

S^£tSB$S : & <> KKSjl!8"?i7) i>nfitf, 4-'&v>0

###jm#)mhi7)M#: sn^kont, v-7- • i/x^A^e

1 Otznx )(7)tt«M4. iMoW&Sliii UA >7

Lt:7t--7i/#(7)#RIK, #7 7*/)-, 7)H8©#hf«, -eftten 7 7 • +-/V&

fi7)N:##r#mgttTw6. iaessr-it, #mm<7)#Rm (*-v #nti-v>sv--K

>) , +n; *-*'*- IK*/)-, 7 7t/)-<7)W«*$'K^tLrv^0 t 9 1

Sti-t (evacuated tube) it'-) <7)*5|)35l$ JxTV'^)*s, iftli, $@@##7): OK)#

OfiTtrtoT-iKKax t*)T*s-5.k*8fe5n-B0 $6li, #7ni7)*lS*#'SP'iA-

A Jil Jy7)#ua £■ ;Ht TIS® L T V>£ S-g^f-v v

B*f*<7)^v>S^i7)atl'x<7)#§®KflJ)i0

as#txi±2m2-e, *a«J*tti6l±^W2,000kWh (f') 7 f, 7 + 7

3) o

xt)iif-K : Btomii 1 ^HT.

: fe 1,400 K;w0

m<7)#mit±El:|W|C.

- A-58 -

2.5.6 W#'

2.5.6.1 —

g7»s*i68tlTv^„ $6, J: &%m&&C&c,TL'&gW21**), 1$

«s*i±t$t?6,3ooMw.icjf-rzo eA$>%>nsj4±ii*s4

-3*-5> (j.;V-6-;l//s- K;H8%, A-T 11%, -A 7 7"T28%, 7 -Y V tf >21%) .HI

mU%0.04 F;l//kWhh 8 A3. (US, 81$, #&, **, A

iS) t5s&6>ATi'3H(±fe40S>f), f (Oi 8,14(omm00MW-6--7;l/e@A&m##M:$'

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A-63 -

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1 23456789 10

■ Coal flGas [^Biomass ^Hydro ^ Wind ^ PV Q Thermal

1 = conventional fossil2 = best new fossil3 = advanced fossil4 = advanced fossil

with 21% hydro5 = advanced fossil

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6 = advanced fossil with 10% intermittents and 21 % hydro7 = advanced fossil with 30% mixed intermittents (3 wind sites)8 = advanced fossil with 30% mixed intermittents (3 wind sites)

and 21 % hydro9 = advanced biomass and gas with 30% mixed intermittents

(3 wind sites) and 21 % hydro10 = advanced biomass and gas with 50% mixed intermittents

(3 wind sites) and 21% hydro

H2.6-1 It* V 7 *

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— A-65 —

Present Energy System Future Energy System»

ARCHITECTURE

EnergySector

WhatPeople

Buy

coal oil natural gas biomass sunlight uranium wind

Sources

coal oil hydro benefication mine rig dam cleaning

hydro thermal photovoltaic cell station power oil refinery

plant

electricity gasoline methane methanol hydrogen coke

electricity tanker gas district heat grid truck grid system

automobile telephone freezer PC furnace mircowave oven aircraft buildings industrial plants roads settlement patterns

Services

Currencies^ffuelsl^

ExtractionTreatment

ServiceTechnologies

ConversionTechnologies

Distribution

transportation communication health keeping warm/cold food care

non-fossil & sustainable sources based on solar and nuclear energy

harvesting collection benefication

zero GHG emission cogeneration

hydrogen electricity N

underground

efficient clean Integrated long lifetimes synergistic ;

^ low material Intensity ^ »

sustain fundamental needs of a growing world population, but better and with more options

[U2.6-2 t'/Xfi(OBE

- A-66 -

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— A-67 —

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1990/Becker t Meinecke, 1992/Williams, 1993) izi> b *3 < 0

A-68 -

A-69

2.7-1 fSSa#T»Jt«

EFFICIENCY: ELECTR. OUTPUT/

ENERGY INPUT

ENERGY BALANCE (LIFE CYCLE

BASED)

C02 INTENS.kg C02/

kWh-ELECTR.

INVESTMENT COST US$/kW-INSTALL

ELECTRICITYUS CENTS/

kWh-ELECTR.COAL-FLUID-BED-COMB. 0.4-0.45 15 0.83-0.74 1100 5.0COAL-GASIFIC. 0.42-0.46 16 0.79 1600 5.4COAL-GASIF.+FC 0.7-0.8 12 0.4-0.5 1600 5.4C0AL-GASIF.+C02 CART. 0.34-0.36 10 0.08 2480 6.7GAS-TURBINE 0.54 18 0.4 600-1400 4-5GAS-COMB. CYCLE 0.52-0.55 20 0.41 750 4.2GAS-COMB. CYCLE+FC 0.7-0.8 15 0.26-0.3 1300-1600 5-5.4GAS-C0MB.C.+C02-CAPT. 0.45-0.48 15 0.07 1510 6.3BIOMASS-DIRECT BURN. 0.4 15 0 1600 5-10BIOMASS-GASIFIC. 0.4-0.45 5 0 3000-4000 6-12MUN. SOLID WASTE BURN. 0.2-0.3 3 0.1 10 000-12 000 12-21NUCELAR-LWR 0.33 10 0.04-0.08** 2000 5.3-6.0NUCLEAR-HTR 0.5 10 0.04-0.08** 1800-3000 5-7NUCLEAR-BR 0.4 8-10 0.08-0.12** 2700-3800 6-8SOL.THERM.-TROUGH 0.13-0.17 10 0.04-0.08** 2800-3500 NOW

2000-2400 FUT.12-17 NOW8-12 FUT.

SOL.THERM:-CENTR.REC. 0.12-0.18 10 0.04-0.08** 1800-2500 FUT. 4.S-6.2 FUT.soltherm.centrrec.+ht-stoi 0.12-0.18 10 0.06-0.10** 3000-4000 4.5-6.2SOL. THERM.-PAR. DISC 0.2-0.28 10-15 0.03-0.04** 1250-2000 FUT. 6-11 FUT.SOL.PV-NOW 0.10 2-3 0.12-0.20** 7000-10 000 23-33SOL. PV-FUTURE 0.15 10 0.03** 1200 5SOL. PV-FUT.+EL.STOR. 0.12 3 0.06** 2400 10WIND 0.4 10 0.03** 900-1200 5-7HYDRO-SMALL 0.9-0.97 10-20 0.04** 2000-4000 3-6HYDRO-LARGE 0.9-0.97 20-40 0.04** 1000-2000 2-3

INDIRECT C02-EMISS. BY USING FOSSILE ENERGIES FOR CONSTRUCTION OF PLANT

2.1-2 llbS^S

FUEL INT.-COMBUST.-EN. FUEL-CELL-ELECTR. BATTERY-ELECTR.VEHICLE VEHICLE VEHICLE

EN-INVEST.: MEDIUMCRUDE FUEL COST: LOWOIL: GASOLINE EFFIC.: 0.2

C02-EMISS.: HIGH AIR-POLL: HIGHEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUM

NAT. FUEL COST: LOW LOWGAS: METHANOL EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4

C02-EMISS.: HIGH MEDIUMAIR-POLL: HIGH ZEROEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUMFUEL COST: MEDIUM MEDIUM

METHANOL EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4C02-EMISS.: ZERO ZEROAIR-POLL: HIGH ZEROEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM FUEL COST: MEDIUM

ETHANOL EFFIC.: 0.2C02-EMISS.: ZERO

BIO AIR-POLL: HIGHFUELS:

RAPE-MET.-EST.

EN-INVEST.: MEDIUM FUEL COST: MEDIUM EFFIC.: 0.2C02-EMISS.: ZERO AIR-POLL: HIGHEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUMFUEL COST: MEDIUM MEDIUM

HYDROGEN EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4C02-EMISS.: ZERO ZEROAIR-POLL: ZERO* ZEROEN-INVEST.: MEDIUM MEDIUM

ELECTRO- FUEL COST: HIGH HIGHLYSIS: HYDROGEN EFFIC.: 0.2 0.4

C02-EMISS.: ZERO ZEROAIR-POLL: ZERO* ZERO

EN-INVEST.: HIGH FUEL COST: HIGH**

LEAD-ACID EFFIC.: 0.8ELECTR. C02-EMISS.: ZEROBATTERY AIR-POLL: ZEROSTOR.

NEW TYPES

EN-INVEST.: HIGH FUEL COST: HIGH** EFFIC.: 0.8C02-EMISS.: ZERO AIR-POLL: ZERO

* WITH NOX-CATALYSATOR ** INCLUD. COST OF BATTERIES

- A-70 -

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- A-83 -

A-84

3.1-1 1/7 T U >z

Region 2025 2050 2075 2100

Nuclear

Elect. Gen.

(TWh/yr)

Nuclear

Share of

Total

Elect

(%)

Nuclear

Capacity

(GW.)

Nuclear

Elect. Gen.

(TWh/yr)

Nuclear

Share of

Total

Elect (%)

Nuclear

Capacity

(GW.)

Nuclear

Elect. Gen.

(TWh/yr)

Nuclear

Share of

Total

Elect.

(%)

Nuclear

Capacity

(GW.)

Nuclear

Elect. Gen.

(TWh/yr)

Nuclear

Share of

Total

Elect.

(%)

Nuclear

Capacity

(GW.)

Africa 56 5 8 208 10 31 434 15 66 678 20 103

Asia 1583 21 240 3672 27 556 6479 36 982 9510 45 1442

Austalasia

and New

Zealand

7 5 1 17 10 3 25 15 4 37 20 6

Eastern &

Central

Europa

1184 30 179 2187 40 331 3349 50 507 4527 60 686

Latin

America

204 10 31 849 20 98 1289 30 195 2000 40 303

Middle East 89 10 15 212 12 32 342 15 52 471 17 71

North

Amercia

1053 30 159 1525 39 231 2008 48 304 2566 57 389

Western

Europe

634 30 96 1090 45 165 1598 60 242 2159 75 327

Total 4764 23 721 9352 30 1447 15524 38 2352 21948 46 3327

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Source Natural Gas* Coal* Biomass* Nuclear** Wind* Photovoltaic

Fuel sources

Capital 0.88 2.16 1.94 - - -

Feedstock 5.58 2.58 2.73-4.10 - - -

Purchased energy 0.41 1.51 1.09 - - -

C02 Sequestration 034 0.97 -

O&M 0.61 1.36 1.39 - - -

Total production cost

7.82 8.58 7.15-8.52 - - -

Electrolytic sources*

Electricity - - - 142 11.1 10.5

Electrolysis - - - 2.3 5.4 3.9

Total production cost

- - - 16.5 16.5 14.4

Storage' - - - 02 0.8 02

Compression* - - - 1.2 1.2 1.2

Transmission - - - - - 0.3

Local distribution 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Refueling station1* 52 52 52 52 52 52

Total retail cost 13.5 143 12.9-142 23.6 24.3 21.8

- A-89 -

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FOREST AND WOODLAND

PERMANENT PASTURE

CROPLAND

AN

T

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V « Low Nuclear V

ariantLA

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SE PATTER

NS. 1979-91

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uclear Variant

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Average Yield. 1985-87

Record yield (1994),Iowa Corn-Grower's Contest

Global average yield. 1987

Average yield for Zambia on 10,000 hectares. 1987

10-year average commercial yield on best 1,000 hectares

5-year average yield on experimental plot

Average commercial yield on 80,000 hectares, 1986-91

Maximum stand yield, 1986-91

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4-i

Year Total energy sector

(1990 US dollars x 109)

Renewable energy

(1990 US dollars x 109)

Renewable energy

(percent of total)

1980 11,610 1,670 14

1982 10,730 1,113 11

1984 9,430 930 10

1986 8,200 580 7

1988 7,270 540 7

1990 7,200 490 7

1991 7,970 570 7

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Energy

Policies of IEA Countries (Paris, 1991).

- A-102 -

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GLOSSARY

Acronyms

AC alternating currentAFC alkaline fuel cellAP Accelerated PoliciesBIG/GT biomass integrated gasifier / gas turbineCC combined cycleCEC Commission of the European CommunitiesCHP combined heat and power generationDC direct currentDH district heating(US)DOE (United States) Department of EnergyDTI Department of Trade and Industry (United Kingdom)EDS Electric Drive SystemEOR enhanced oil recovery(US)EPA (United States) Environmental Protection AgencyEPRI Electric Power Research Institute (United Sates)EU European UnionFCVs fuel cell vehiclesFGD fuel gas desulfurizationGCR gas cooled reactorGDP gross domestic productGEF global environmental facilityGHG greenhouse gasesGNP gross national productGT. gas turbineGTCC gas turbine combined cycleHHV higher heating valuesHNV high-nuclear variantHWR heavy water reactorIAEA International Atomic Energy AgencyICEVs internal combustion engine vehiclesIEA International Energy AgencyIFRC International Fusion Research Council (IAEA)IGCC integrated gasification combined cyclesRASA International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisINFCE International Nuclear Fuel Cycle EvaluationIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeLEC levelized energy costLESS low emissions supply systemLHV lower heating values

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LMRLNVLWRMCFCM-HTGRMOXMSWNBANGNPTNRELO&MOECDOTAOTECPAFCPCPEMPF+FGDPPPPURPAPVR&DRD&DRIGESRSWGSARSMRSOFCSPEFCT&DUK.U.S.(A.)

liquid metal cooled reactorlow-nuclear variantlight water reactormolten carbonate fuel cellmodular high temperature gas cooled reactormixed-oxide fuelmunicipal solid wasteNuclear Energy Agencynatural gasNon-Proliferation TreatyNational Renewable Energy Laboratory (United States) operation and maintenanceOrganization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOffice of Technology Assessment (United States)ocean thermal energy conversionphosphoric acid fuel cellpulverised coalproton-exchange-membranepulverised fuel+fuel gas desulphurisationpurchasing power parityPublic Utilities Regulatory Policy ActphotovoltaicResearch and DevelopmentResearch Development, and DemonstrationRenewables-Intensive Global Energy ScenarioResponse Strategies Working GroupSecond Assessment Reportsmall and medium size reactorsolid oxide fuel cellsolid polymer electrolyte fuel cellTransmission and DistributionUnited KingdomUnited States (America)

UN United NationsUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic RadiationUSSR Union of Soviet Socialist RepublicsWEC World Energy CouncilWG working groupWHO World Health OrganizationWRI World Resources InstituteWWF World Wild Fund

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Chemicals

a-Si amorphous siliconC carbonCdTe cadmium tellurideCH4 methaneCO carbon monoxideC02 carbon dioxideCuInSe2 copper indium diselenideH(H2) hydrogenH20 waterMeOH methanolN2 (N) nitrogenN20 dinitrogen monoxideNH3 ammoniaNi nickelNOx nitrogen oxides03 ozonePu plutoniumS sulfurS02 sulfur dioxideSOx sulfur oxides

Units of Measure

% percentbt billion tonneEJ exa jouleEJth exajoule thermalg grammegC gramme-carbonGJ gigajoule (109 joule)Gt gigatonneGtC gigatonne-carbonGW gigawattGW(e) gigawatt electricGWh gigawatt-hourha hectarekg kilogramme (103 gramme)km3 cubic kilometerkV kilovoltkW kilowattkWh kilowatt-hour

kWhe kilowatt-hour electrickWhth kilowatt-hour thermalm meterm2 square meterm3 cubic metermha millihectareMJ mega joule (106 joule)mpg millipicogrammeMT milliontonneMW megawattMWd megawatt dayMWe megawatt electricMWh megawatt-hourMWth megawatt-thermalPg petagramme (1015 gramme)PgC petagramme-carbonPJ petajouleppm parts per millions secondt tonnetc tonne-carbonTg teragramme (1012 gramme)TgC teragramme-carbonTWh tonwatt-hourv-km volt-kilometerWp watt-peakyr year

Currencies

$ US dollarsUS$ United States dollarsUSc United States cent

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