Jump-Start - Credit Suisse
68
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION ™ Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 23 May 2013 Asia Pacific Equity Research Investment Strategy Jump-Start STRATEGY Jump-Start aims to provide you with a summary of the week that was and helps you prepare for the week ahead with a results calendar, economic forecasts and valuation summaries. Yen and the art of motorcycle maintenance: The original work with a similar sounding name explores the concept of “quality” and what it stands for and has been applied to everything from exploring space to making tea. Its underlying thread of Japanese philosophy and what makes crowds stir can be applied to markets too, especially to the recent Yen-related moves. We at Credit Suisse, while not claiming the same level of insights as Robert Pirsig, have been exploring the Yen and the stock market ourselves through our series of reports “Yen and You”. This week Manish Nigam takes a look at what this means for Tech. Manish looks at what a weak (or even weaker) JPY means for the technology sector. He concludes that the market is still figuring out the full impact and that there is still money to be made on this theme. We believe published estimates haven’t yet captured the full impact. Most Japanese tech companies will use these currency-related gains to improve their profitability and further their restructuring programmes. Link to report. Sanjay’s proxy-NPL ratio for Chinese banks is approaching GFC levels. It is at 7.5% based on a sample of 2,427 A-share listed non-financial companies, up from 3.9% in 2011. This ratio is based on debt of companies in which EBITDA is less than interest expense, i.e., interest coverage <1.0x. While this does not necessarily mean a crisis for the banks it does highlight the balance sheet stress and how companies are coping with lower sales growth. Link to report. This theme is consistent with Trina Chen’s channel checks on Chinese demand which suggest that the just ramped-up peak seasonality is now rolling over earlier than expected, given the activities started late this year. Other than appliances, copper fabrication and northern cement demand, most of the downstream and midstream producers are seeing a softening order book. Link to report. Indonesia—time to catch your breath. Our economics team, Teddy Oetomo and Sanjay Jain have looked at the slowdown of investment growth in Indonesia and its impact. Investment in Indonesia has decelerated sharply. Gross fixed capital formation growth plunged to 9.2% YoY (10Y CAGR 22.7%). Its two drivers, an extremely accommodative monetary policy and commodity prices, are incrementally less supportive. The slower investment and GDP should lead to falling loan demand while margins may not expand much. India offers a contrast—rates could be cut further in India while GDP growth has bottomed. HFCs are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of falling rates. Link to report. Must-read recently published reports 1) India Market Strategy – INR: Currency crisis? Unlikely for now (22/4) Neelkanth Mishra Neelkanth Mishra argues that at least the pressure on INR is changing. Medium-term risks aside, a “crisis” is not imminent 2) Research Institute – Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 Andrew Garthwaite CS examines how stocks and bonds perform in a world of resurgency in investor risk appetite and might soon see inflation expectations rise. 3) Asia Emerging Consumer Survey 2013: Confidence revival (23/1) Karim P. Salamatian Asian consumers show the strongest confidence momentum. Superior return potential in discretionary, brand-driven ideas 4) China Market Strategy: The worst is probably over (16/10) Vincent Chan Economy may have bottomed out. Valuations back to 2008 levels. Add beta. 5) APAC: Consumption S curve: Winners & losers as Asian consumers evolve (6/8) Karim P. Salamatian A unique report as it is perhaps the first time that country-by-country S curves for consumption have been constructed. Research Analyst Jahanzeb Naseer 852 2101 6554 [email protected] Credit Suisse forthcoming events Hong Kong China Coal and Power Corporate Days Date 30-31 May, Mission Hills Coverage Analyst Trina Chen China/Hong Kong Emerging Corporate Day Date 19 June, Hong Kong Coverage Analyst Kenny Lau APAC Transport Corporate Day Date 26 June, Hong Kong Coverage Analyst Timothy Ross Singapore Sinopac Holdings (2890.TW) Date 23-24 May, Singapore Coverage Analyst Chung Hsu US SMIC Shanghai (SMI.N) Date 16-24 May, US Coverage Analyst Randy Abrams Actions Semiconductor Co (ACTS.O) Date 10-11 June, US Coverage Analyst Randy Abrams HDFC Bank (HDBK.BO) Date 17-20 June, US Coverage Analyst Ashish Gupta Europe Reserve Bank of India Date 13 June, London Coverage Analyst Ashish Gupta Chailease Holding (5871.TW) Date 17-21 June, London Coverage Analyst Chung Hsu China Life Taiwan (2823.TW) Date 17-21 June, Europe Coverage Analyst Chung Hsu Others ING Vysya Bank (VYSA.BO) Date 27-29 May, Chennai/Mumbai Coverage Analyst Ashish Gupta Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference Date 11-13 September, Taiwan Coverage Analyst Manish Nigam Asian Investment Conference 2014 Date 24-28 March, Hong Kong Contact [email protected] or your usual sales representative
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Transcript of Jump-Start - Credit Suisse
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
23 May 2013
Asia Pacific
Equity Research
Investment Strategy
Jump-Start STRATEGY
Jump-Start aims to provide you with a summary of the week that was and helps you prepare
for the week ahead with a results calendar, economic forecasts and valuation summaries.
Yen and the art of motorcycle maintenance: The original work with a similar sounding name
explores the concept of “quality” and what it stands for and has been applied to everything from
exploring space to making tea. Its underlying thread of Japanese philosophy and what makes
crowds stir can be applied to markets too, especially to the recent Yen-related moves. We at
Credit Suisse, while not claiming the same level of insights as Robert Pirsig, have been exploring
the Yen and the stock market ourselves through our series of reports “Yen and You”. This week
Manish Nigam takes a look at what this means for Tech.
Manish looks at what a weak (or even weaker) JPY means for the technology sector. He
concludes that the market is still figuring out the full impact and that there is still money to be
made on this theme. We believe published estimates haven’t yet captured the full impact. Most
Japanese tech companies will use these currency-related gains to improve their profitability and
further their restructuring programmes. Link to report.
Sanjay’s proxy-NPL ratio for Chinese banks is approaching GFC levels. It is at 7.5% based on
a sample of 2,427 A-share listed non-financial companies, up from 3.9% in 2011. This ratio is
based on debt of companies in which EBITDA is less than interest expense, i.e., interest
coverage <1.0x. While this does not necessarily mean a crisis for the banks it does highlight the
balance sheet stress and how companies are coping with lower sales growth. Link to report.
This theme is consistent with Trina Chen’s channel checks on Chinese demand which suggest
that the just ramped-up peak seasonality is now rolling over earlier than expected, given the
activities started late this year. Other than appliances, copper fabrication and northern cement
demand, most of the downstream and midstream producers are seeing a softening order book.
Link to report.
Indonesia—time to catch your breath. Our economics team, Teddy Oetomo and Sanjay Jain
have looked at the slowdown of investment growth in Indonesia and its impact. Investment in
Indonesia has decelerated sharply. Gross fixed capital formation growth plunged to 9.2% YoY
(10Y CAGR 22.7%). Its two drivers, an extremely accommodative monetary policy and
commodity prices, are incrementally less supportive. The slower investment and GDP should
lead to falling loan demand while margins may not expand much. India offers a contrast—rates
could be cut further in India while GDP growth has bottomed. HFCs are likely to be the biggest
beneficiaries of falling rates. Link to report.
Must-read recently published reports
1) India Market Strategy – INR: Currency crisis? Unlikely for now (22/4)
Neelkanth Mishra
Neelkanth Mishra argues that at least the pressure on INR is changing. Medium-term risks aside, a “crisis” is not imminent
2) Research Institute – Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013
Andrew Garthwaite
CS examines how stocks and bonds perform in a world of resurgency in investor risk appetite and might soon see inflation expectations rise.
3) Asia Emerging Consumer Survey 2013: Confidence revival (23/1)
Karim P. Salamatian
Asian consumers show the strongest confidence momentum. Superior return potential in discretionary, brand-driven ideas
4) China Market Strategy: The worst is probably over (16/10)
Vincent Chan
Economy may have bottomed out. Valuations back to 2008 levels. Add beta.
5) APAC: Consumption S curve: Winners & losers as Asian consumers evolve (6/8)
Karim P. Salamatian
A unique report as it is perhaps the first time that country-by-country S curves for consumption have been constructed.
Research Analyst
Jahanzeb Naseer
852 2101 6554
Credit Suisse forthcoming events
Hong Kong
China Coal and Power Corporate Days
Date 30-31 May, Mission Hills
Coverage Analyst Trina Chen
China/Hong Kong Emerging Corporate Day
Date 19 June, Hong Kong
Coverage Analyst Kenny Lau
APAC Transport Corporate Day
Date 26 June, Hong Kong
Coverage Analyst Timothy Ross
Singapore
Sinopac Holdings (2890.TW)
Date 23-24 May, Singapore
Coverage Analyst Chung Hsu
US
SMIC Shanghai (SMI.N)
Date 16-24 May, US
Coverage Analyst Randy Abrams
Actions Semiconductor Co (ACTS.O)
Date 10-11 June, US
Coverage Analyst Randy Abrams
HDFC Bank (HDBK.BO)
Date 17-20 June, US
Coverage Analyst Ashish Gupta
Europe
Reserve Bank of India
Date 13 June, London
Coverage Analyst Ashish Gupta
Chailease Holding (5871.TW)
Date 17-21 June, London
Coverage Analyst Chung Hsu
China Life Taiwan (2823.TW)
Date 17-21 June, Europe
Coverage Analyst Chung Hsu
Others
ING Vysya Bank (VYSA.BO)
Date 27-29 May, Chennai/Mumbai
Coverage Analyst Ashish Gupta
Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference
Date 11-13 September, Taiwan
Coverage Analyst Manish Nigam
Asian Investment Conference 2014
Date 24-28 March, Hong Kong
Contact [email protected] or your usual sales representative
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Weekly revision review
Company rating/earnings/target price changes
New EPS Old EPS
Last New Old forecasts forecasts % change
New Old closing target target % Curr Curr Curr Curr Curr Curr
Country Date RIC Company rating rating price price price change year yr + 1 year yr + 1 year yr + 1 Analyst
Upgrade
Hong Kong 16 May 0303.HK VTech O N HK$ 14.895 HK$ 114 HK$ 86.5 31.8 US$ 0.8474 US$ 0.8889 US$ 0.8106 US$ 0.8594 4.55 3.43 Kenny Lau
Taiwan 16 May 8021.TW TOPOINT O N NT$ 18.65 NT$ 22.4 NT$ 24.4 -8.2 NT$ 1.8212 NT$ 1.9595 NT$ 1.8747 NT$ 2.0794 -2.86 -5.76 Pauline Chen
Thailand 21 May PTTE.BK PTTEP N U Bt 161 Bt 171 Bt 158 8.2 Bt 15.8285 Bt 16.6397 Bt 15.2502 Bt 16.3566 3.79 1.73 Poom Suvarnatemee
Upward revision
China 20 May 1177.HK Sino Biopharm N N HK$ 4.7 HK$ 4.9 HK$ 4.6 6.5 HK$ 0.2089 HK$ 0.2444 HK$ 0.1998 HK$ 0.2384 4.58 2.52 Iris Wang
China 20 May 1199.HK Cosco Pacific N N HK$ 1.461 HK$ 11.5 HK$ 11 4.5 US$ -0.0453 US$ 0.1114 US$ 0.1421 US$ 0.1553 n.m. -28.27 Davin Wu
China 20 May 2319.HK Mengniu Dairy O O HK$ 20.781 HK$ 30 HK$ 25.7 16.7 Rmb 0.8706 Rmb 1.1704 Rmb 0.8706 Rmb 1.1305 0.00 3.53 Kevin Yin
Hong Kong 20 May 0179.HK Johnson Electric N N HK$ 0.682 HK$ 4.975 HK$ 4.68 6.3 US$ 0.0499 US$ 0.0543 US$ 0.0596 US$ 0.0626 -16.31 -13.26 Kenny Lau
India 17 May ITC.BO ITC O O Rs 335.8 Rs 360 Rs 340 5.9 Rs 9.5328 Rs 11.2229 Rs 9.5443 Rs 11.2294 -0.12 -0.06 Arnab Mitra
India 17 May SUTV.BO Sun TV O O Rs 417.85 Rs 488 Rs 473 3.2 Rs 17.3207 Rs 21.271 Rs 17.3868 Rs 21.3459 -0.38 -0.35 Jatin Chawla
India 20 May HDFC.BO HDFC O O Rs 898.2 Rs 1045 Rs 903 15.7 Rs 32.0802 Rs 37.681 Rs 32.5148 Rs 38.3376 -1.34 -1.71 Ashish Gupta
India 22 May LART.BO L&T N N Rs 1517.1 Rs 1433 Rs 1379 3.9 Rs 82.69 Rs 90.8769 Rs 86.4544 Rs 92.5346 -4.35 -1.79 Amish Shah
India 22 May ZEE.BO ZEE O O Rs 241.35 Rs 263 Rs 242 8.7 Rs 7.5431 Rs 8.6772 Rs 7.6988 Rs 8.8003 -2.02 -1.40 Jatin Chawla
Indonesia 16 May AKRA.JK AKR Corporindo N N Rp 5300 Rp 5300 Rp 5000 6.0 Rp 216 Rp 329 Rp 243 Rp 336 -11.23 -1.83 Ami Tantri
Malaysia 21 May BMYS.KL Bursa O O RM 8.14 RM 9.5 RM 8 18.8 RM 0.3627 RM 0.4409 RM 0.3335 RM 0.4112 8.78 7.22 Arjan van Veen
Malaysia 22 May ALFG.KL Alliance Financial Group O O RM 4.96 RM 5.63 RM 4.65 21.1 RM 0.4108 RM 0.4587 RM 0.4192 RM 0.4519 -2.02 1.50 Danny Goh
Malaysia 22 May AXIA.KL Axiata O O RM 6.96 RM 8 RM 7.5 6.7 RM 0.3147 RM 0.3655 RM 0.3253 RM 0.3794 -3.26 -3.67 Foong Wai Loke
Philippines 16 May BLOOM.PS Bloomberry O O P 13 P 17.503 P 17.5 0.0 P -0.0681 P 0.4418 P -0.0514 P 0.4418 n.m. 0.00 Gabriel Chan
Singapore 16 May STEL.SI SingTel O O S$ 4.05 S$ 4.25 S$ 3.75 13.3 S$ 0.2426 S$ 0.2617 S$ 0.2368 S$ 0.2618 2.44 -0.01 Chate Benchavitvilai
Taiwan 22 May 2823.TW China Life Taiwan O O NT$ 31.85 NT$ 38.8 NT$ 38 2.1 NT$ 2.4222 NT$ 2.7196 NT$ 2.3133 NT$ 2.7227 4.71 -0.11 Chung Hsu
Thailand 22 May PTT.BK PTT N N Bt 347 Bt 382 Bt 362 5.5 Bt 39.1627 Bt 40.9966 Bt 39.5346 Bt 40.1373 -0.94 2.14 Poom Suvarnatemee
Downgrade
China 22 May 2382.HK Sunny Optical N O HK$ 8.297 HK$ 10.5 HK$ 11 -4.5 Rmb 0.5689 Rmb 0.7681 Rmb 0.6002 Rmb 0.8013 -5.23 -4.14 Yan Taw Boon
Hong Kong 20 May 0551.HK Yue Yuen U N HK$ 2.828 HK$ 15.8 HK$ 24.9 -36.5 US$ 0.1872 US$ 0.2026 US$ 0.2835 US$ 0.3094 -33.99 -34.53 Eva Wang
Hong Kong 20 May JARD.SI Jardine Matheson N O US$ 66.04 US$ 72 US$ 74 -2.7 US$ 4.5863 US$ 4.9607 US$ 4.7832 US$ 5.1868 -4.12 -4.36 Gerald Wong
Hong Kong 20 May JSH.SI Jardine Strategic N O US$ 40.43 US$ 42 US$ 43 -2.3 US$ 2.9766 US$ 3.2004 US$ 3.0954 US$ 3.3219 -3.84 -3.66 Gerald Wong
India 20 May LUPN.BO Lupin N O Rs 768.5 Rs 755 Rs 710 6.3 Rs 29.4523 Rs 32.7612 Rs 27.227 Rs 29.9559 8.17 9.36 Anubhav Aggarwal
Indonesia 21 May MNCN.JK Media Nusantara N O Rp 3600 Rp 3550 Rp 3550 0.0 Rp 142 Rp 168 Rp 142 Rp 168 0.00 0.00 Ella Nusantoro
Taiwan 20 May 2881.TW Fubon FHC N O NT$ 41.7 NT$ 43 NT$ 48 -10.4 NT$ 3.1935 NT$ 3.559 NT$ 3.4414 NT$ 3.815 -7.20 -6.71 Chung Hsu
Taiwan 21 May 3149.TW G-Tech N O NT$ 63.9 NT$ 66 NT$ 101 -34.7 NT$ 2.9577 NT$ 4.8891 NT$ 5.4534 NT$ 6.4762 -45.76 -24.51 Jerry Su
23 M
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Company rating/earnings/target price changes (continued) New EPS Old EPS
Last New Old forecasts forecasts % change
New Old closing target target % Curr Curr Curr Curr Curr Curr
Country Date RIC Company rating rating price price price change year yr + 1 year yr + 1 year yr + 1 Analyst
Downward revision
China 21 May 0322.HK Tingyi O O HK$ 2.628 HK$ 24 HK$ 24 0.0 US$ 0.0937 US$ 0.1154 US$ 0.0977 US$ 0.1194 -4.11 -3.32 Kevin Yin
China 21 May 2328.HK PICC P&C O O HK$ 7.965 HK$ 13.5 HK$ 15 -10.0 Rmb 0.7398 Rmb 0.8006 Rmb 0.7964 Rmb 0.8968 -7.11 -10.73 Arjan van Veen
Hong Kong 20 May 2778.HK Champion REIT O O HK$ 4.15 HK$ 5.02 HK$ 5.13 -2.1 HK$ 0.177 HK$ 0.1911 HK$ 0.216 HK$ 0.1959 -18.06 -2.45 Joyce Kwock
India 17 May BAJA.BO Bajaj Auto O O Rs 1850.7 Rs 2126 Rs 2259 -5.9 Rs 108.1239 Rs 122.379 Rs 105.3952 Rs 126.5184 2.59 -3.27 Jatin Chawla
India 17 May SATY.BO Mahindra Satyam N N Rs 110.05 Rs 122 Rs 122 0.0 Rs 11.4363 Rs 12.996 Rs 11.7935 Rs 13.3329 -3.03 -2.53 Anantha Narayan
India 20 May ADEL.BO Adani Enterprises U U Rs 232.9 Rs 205 Rs 205 0.0 Rs 9.1627 Rs 24.7229 Rs 11.5409 Rs 24.8922 -20.61 -0.68 Amish Shah
India 21 May TEML.BO Tech Mahindra N N Rs 942.9 Rs 1040 Rs 1085 -4.1 Rs 111.7946 Rs 125.2869 Rs 112.5506 Rs 125.6984 -0.67 -0.33 Anantha Narayan
Indonesia 20 May EXCL.JK XL Axiata O O Rp 5200 Rp 7500 Rp 7500 0.0 Rp 293 Rp 338 Rp 362 Rp 405 -18.96 -16.45 Colin McCallum
Indonesia 20 May ISAT.JK Indosat O O Rp 5350 Rp 8300 Rp 8300 0.0 Rp 224 Rp 323 Rp 264 Rp 341 -15.16 -5.06 Colin McCallum
Indonesia 21 May PTBA.JK PT Bukit Asam O O Rp 14950 Rp 18000 Rp 18000 0.0 Rp 1307 Rp 1475 Rp 1391 Rp 1579 -6.01 -6.62 Ami Tantri
South Korea 20 May 005830.KS DBI N N W 45550 W 44000 W 44000 0.0 W 4555 W 6428 W 6231 W 6783 -26.89 -5.24 Gil Kim
Taiwan 16 May 2317.TW Hon Hai N N NT$ 78.3 NT$ 74 NT$ 83 -10.8 NT$ 7.2571 NT$ 8.6013 NT$ 7.9329 NT$ 9.8377 -8.52 -12.57 Thompson Wu
Taiwan 20 May 2049.TW HIWIN ORD U U NT$ 202.5 NT$ 167 NT$ 167 0.0 NT$ 7.7857 NT$ 10.4347 NT$ 10.4404 NT$ 13.1608 -25.43 -20.71 Jerry Su
Taiwan 21 May 2347.TW Synnex U U NT$ 43.85 NT$ 37 NT$ 40 -7.5 NT$ 3.3747 NT$ 3.6539 NT$ 3.5519 NT$ 3.8479 -4.99 -5.04 Thompson Wu
Thailand 16 May AP.BK Asian Property O O Bt 8.85 Bt 12.5 Bt 13 -3.8 Bt 1.0271 Bt 1.4526 Bt 1.0637 Bt 1.4516 -3.43 0.07 Chai Techakumpuch
Initiation
India 20 May LICH.BO LIC Housing Finance O - Rs 275.75 Rs 365 - n.a. Rs 27.2317 Rs 33.9715 - - n.a. n.a. Sunil Tirumalai
Others
India 20 May NITT.NS NIIT Tech O O Rs 263.1 Rs 350 Rs 350 0.0 Rs 38.4472 Rs 44.1539 Rs 39.1659 Rs 44.0367 -1.83 0.27 Sagar Rastogi
India 21 May HZNC.BO Hindustan Zinc O O Rs 117.15 Rs 151 Rs 151 0.0 Rs 17.0154 Rs 18.8416 Rs 17.048 Rs 18.7664 -0.19 0.40 Neelkanth Mishra
US$; Note: Entries are organised by changes in rating first, followed by that in target price and earnings. Source: Credit Suisse estimates
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 4
Regional valuation snapshot Forecast valuations (IBES estimates) Index performance
EPS 3-mth chg. in growth (%) EPS est. (%) P/E (x)
22 May 13 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013
Australia -2.4 -2.6 8.8 -0.7 -1.8 15.2 15.6 14.4 China 0.3 11.8 10.4 1.2 0.1 10.7 9.6 8.7 Hong Kong -11.7 10.8 10.8 1.4 1.6 18.1 16.3 14.7 India 10.1 12.0 15.5 -2.4 -2.0 16.2 14.5 12.6 Indonesia 2.0 15.9 16.6 -1.6 -0.8 19.2 16.6 14.2 Japan -27.0 14.2 55.9 6.8 6.7 30.0 26.4 16.9 Korea 15.3 34.3 15.5 1.7 4.3 11.6 8.7 7.6 Malaysia 15.5 1.0 10.0 -2.2 -1.9 16.4 16.2 14.7 Philippines 16.1 10.5 5.0 0.9 0.0 23.9 21.7 20.6 Singapore 7.1 0.7 9.0 -1.0 -0.9 15.3 15.2 13.9 Taiwan 0.7 36.8 14.9 2.5 3.8 21.0 15.5 13.5 Thailand 18.1 18.7 12.8 -1.4 -0.4 16.1 13.6 12.1 Cons. Discretionary 6.8 35.2 15.0 0.6 2.8 14.8 11.0 9.5 Consumer Staples -2.2 12.5 12.4 -2.7 -2.4 23.4 20.8 18.5 Energy -11.1 7.9 8.4 -3.5 -4.3 11.6 10.8 9.9 Financials 5.1 7.9 9.5 1.7 1.7 12.9 11.9 10.9 Health Care 9.8 16.8 16.9 -0.1 0.4 26.8 22.9 19.6 Industrials -7.4 6.6 18.6 -4.3 -2.4 15.4 14.7 12.4 Information Tech 39.1 41.2 14.6 7.1 8.3 15.7 11.1 9.7 Materials -24.2 -3.2 21.0 -9.5 -7.7 13.1 13.6 11.3 Telecom Services 0.3 8.0 5.5 -1.0 -3.3 16.0 14.8 14.1 Utilities 34.6 33.4 12.8 1.3 1.7 20.3 15.2 13.5 Asia Pacific 5.1 25.4 12.5 2.4 2.7 17.5 14.0 12.5 Asia F X Japan 4.6 18.3 12.8 0.8 1.4 14.1 12.0 10.6 Asia Pac F X Japan 2.0 13.8 12.3 0.2 0.7 14.4 12.7 11.3
(22 May 13) US$ – price index 1W 1M 3M YTD 12M
MSCI Australia -2.6 -1.8 -3.1 4.3 24.1 MSCI China 0.2 4.2 -1.0 -2.0 14.7 MSCI Hong Kong 0.9 4.9 4.3 8.3 29.5 MSCI India -1.7 2.3 1.1 1.4 25.2 MSCI Indonesia 2.0 1.7 8.3 16.6 22.3 MSCI Japan 0.9 7.3 19.9 24.8 36.0 MSCI Korea 1.8 4.3 -5.5 -5.5 11.1 MSCI Malaysia -0.4 6.6 14.3 8.8 18.7 MSCI Philippines 0.1 4.3 9.0 26.6 57.7 MSCI Singapore -1.2 2.1 2.7 4.7 21.3 MSCI Taiwan 0.9 5.2 4.9 6.5 15.2 MSCI Thailand -0.4 1.2 4.4 12.9 34.9 Cons. Discretionary 0.9 4.5 0.8 1.8 11.7 Consumer Staples -0.2 0.5 3.2 6.4 20.8 Energy -0.4 2.5 -5.7 -6.5 4.3 Financials -1.1 1.6 2.1 7.7 31.8 Health Care -2.9 0.7 2.1 6.2 40.6 Industrials 0.3 3.3 -2.7 -0.5 11.8 Information Tech 1.7 5.0 1.9 4.5 20.7 Materials 0.0 2.0 -10.2 -10.5 0.8 Telecom Services -0.9 4.0 7.2 5.2 18.9 Utilities -2.7 -0.9 4.7 7.6 26.8 MSCI AC Asia Pacific 0.2 4.4 7.4 10.9 26.0 MSCI AC Asia ex JP 0.4 4.0 1.4 2.5 18.7 MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex JP -0.4 2.5 0.2 3.0 20.1
Note: Numbers for Australia and Japan correspond to June 2010- 12 and
March 2010-12, respectively.
Source: IBES, Credit Suisse research
Note: All sectoral data refer to Asia Pacific ex. Japan.
Source for all figures: MSCI, FactSet, Thomson Financial Datastream,
Credit Suisse research
Historical valuations Country – DDM-based valuations
22 May 13
12M forward P/E (x)
Trailing P/B (x)
Trailing dividend yield (%)
Current 5-yr avg. Current
5-yr avg. Current
5-yr avg.
Australia 14.4 12.3 2.1 1.9 3.9 4.7 China 9.2 10.8 1.6 2.0 3.0 2.7 Hong Kong 15.5 14.8 1.4 1.4 2.4 3.0 India 14.1 14.2 2.8 2.9 1.3 1.2 Indonesia 15.5 12.6 4.2 3.8 2.2 2.8 Japan 16.5 15.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 2.1 Korea 8.2 9.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.4 Malaysia 15.4 14.0 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.9 Philippines 21.2 14.5 3.7 2.6 1.4 2.7 Singapore 14.6 13.2 1.6 1.6 2.9 3.5 Taiwan 14.6 15.2 1.9 1.8 3.1 4.2 Thailand 12.9 10.5 2.6 2.0 2.7 3.5 Cons. Discretionary 10.3 11.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 Consumer Staples 19.5 15.8 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.1 Energy 10.4 11.1 1.5 2.1 3.1 2.8 Financials 11.5 11.5 1.5 1.5 4.5 4.0 Health Care 20.9 18.0 4.5 4.0 2.2 1.9 Industrials 13.6 12.6 1.4 1.5 2.9 2.6 Information Tech 10.4 14.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.5 Materials 12.0 11.2 1.6 2.1 3.0 2.9 Telecom Services 14.5 12.2 2.4 2.2 4.7 4.4 Utilities 14.4 14.7 1.6 1.5 2.8 2.8 Asia Pacific 13.4 13.2 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.7 Asia ex Japan 11.4 11.9 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.6 Asia Pac F X Japan 12.0 12.0 1.7 1.8 2.9 3.2
Implied discount Equity risk
rate (IDR) (%) premium (ERP) (%)
17 May 13 Current 5Y avg. Std Dev. Current 5Y avg. Std Dev.
Australia 10.8 11.7 0.9 7.5 7.7 0.4
China 14.2 13.5 1.0 10.8 9.9 1.0
Hong Kong 9.7 9.9 0.7 8.6 8.0 1.1
India 12.4 13.1 0.8 5.0 5.2 1.3
Indonesia 12.8 14.4 1.5 7.3 5.8 1.8
Korea 13.0 12.1 0.6 10.1 7.7 1.2
Malaysia 10.7 11.1 0.5 7.5 7.3 0.5
Philippines 9.1 10.6 0.8 5.7 3.9 1.0
Singapore 10.1 10.8 0.6 8.7 8.7 0.8
Taiwan 10.6 11.1 0.7 9.4 9.7 0.6
Thailand 12.4 13.4 1.4 9.1 9.7 1.4
Asia ex Japan 11.6 11.5 0.6 9.7 8.7 1.1
Sector – DDM-based valuations Market implied growth rate (MIGR) (%)
17 May 13 Current 5-year average Std Dev.
Cons. Discretionary 0.5 1.9 4.0
Consumer Staples 0.7 2.6 3.2
Energy -6.0 -2.2 4.5
Financials -0.6 1.9 4.0
Health Care 2.3 4.2 3.6
Industrials 0.5 2.8 3.5
Information Tech 3.8 8.4 3.4
Materials -0.4 1.4 4.3
Telecom Services 3.0 3.7 2.6
Utilities -1.7 1.6 4.0
Source: Credit Suisse research Source: Credit Suisse research
23 May 2013
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GEM valuation snapshot Historical valuations Forecast valuations (IBES estimates) (continued)
22 May 13 12M P/E (x) Trailing P/B (x) Trailing DY (%)
Current 5-yr
avg. Current 5-yr avg. Current
5-yr avg.
Brazil 10.7 9.9 1.5 1.8 4.1 3.5 Chile 16.8 15.5 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 China 9.2 10.9 1.6 2.0 3.1 2.7 Colombia 14.7 15.0 1.7 1.9 3.0 3.0 Czech Republic 9.9 10.3 1.3 2.0 8.4 6.6 Egypt 7.0 8.8 1.4 1.8 2.8 4.3 Hungary 8.5 8.4 0.9 1.2 3.3 2.5 India 14.1 14.2 2.8 2.9 1.3 1.2 Indonesia 15.5 12.6 4.2 3.8 2.2 2.8 Korea 8.2 9.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.4
Malaysia 15.4 14.0 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.9 Mexico 16.8 13.9 2.9 2.7 1.6 1.9 Morocco 12.3 13.8 2.4 4.6 4.9 4.3 Pakistan 8.0 6.9 2.3 1.9 6.2 7.2 Peru 11.6 11.8 2.7 3.9 4.5 2.6 Philippines 21.2 14.5 3.7 2.6 1.5 2.7 Poland 12.0 10.8 1.3 1.4 5.8 4.4 Russia 4.9 5.9 0.8 1.0 3.5 2.4 South Africa 13.0 10.7 2.5 2.3 3.1 3.2 Taiwan 14.6 15.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 4.2 Thailand 12.9 10.5 2.6 2.0 2.7 3.5 Turkey 12.1 9.0 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.9 Consumer Discretionary 10.5 11.0 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.6 Consumer Staples 21.7 17.2 4.1 3.4 1.7 2.1 Energy 6.9 7.8 1.0 1.4 3.8 2.8 Financials 9.5 10.2 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.7 Health Care 21.1 16.5 3.8 3.3 1.1 1.0 Industrials 13.2 11.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 Information Technology 10.5 14.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.5 Materials 10.9 10.0 1.3 1.8 3.8 3.3 TelecommsServices 12.6 11.3 2.2 2.3 4.2 3.9 Utilities 11.5 11.7 1.1 1.1 3.9 3.3 EMF 10.4 10.6 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.7 EM Asia 10.7 11.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.5 EM Europe 6.7 6.9 1.0 1.2 3.6 2.9 EM Latin America 12.0 10.9 1.7 2.0 3.3 3.0
Forecast valuations (IBES estimates) 22 May 13 EPS growth 3M chg. in P/E
(%) est. (%) (x)
2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013
Brazil -27.7 24.3 11.5 -3.8 -2.3 13.9 11.2 10.0
Chile -19.3 18.1 21.6 -7.2 -3.2 21.6 18.3 15.0
China 0.3 11.8 10.4 1.2 0.1 10.7 9.6 8.7
Colombia 8.5 1.0 -0.7 -16.4 -12.4 15.4 14.7 14.8
Czech Republic -3.2 -4.3 -5.2 -3.3 -6.9 9.3 9.7 10.2
Egypt 2.1 33.9 17.4 -7.8 -5.0 10.0 7.5 6.4
Hungary -18.0 3.1 11.8 -3.6 -13.9 9.2 8.9 8.0
India 10.1 12.0 15.5 -2.4 -2.0 16.2 14.5 12.6
Indonesia 2.0 15.9 16.6 -1.6 -0.8 19.2 16.6 14.2
Korea 15.3 34.3 15.5 1.7 4.3 11.6 8.7 7.6
Malaysia 15.5 1.0 10.0 -2.2 -1.9 16.4 16.2 14.7
Mexico 36.9 4.4 11.2 -6.7 -9.7 18.4 17.6 15.8
Morocco -5.4 6.0 6.5 -1.0 -3.1 13.4 12.7 11.9
Pakistan 2.8 11.2 15.3 1.6 2.9 9.8 8.8 7.6
Peru -8.1 -0.5 7.7 -13.8 -12.2 22.2 22.3 20.7
Philippines 16.1 10.5 5.0 0.9 0.0 23.9 21.7 20.6
Poland -5.9 -19.6 5.1 -5.3 -5.1 9.9 12.3 11.7
Russia -12.3 -2.8 3.7 -1.9 -1.2 4.9 5.0 4.8
South Africa 7.4 7.8 13.3 -9.0 -8.7 15.1 14.0 12.3
Taiwan 0.7 36.8 14.9 2.5 3.8 21.0 15.5 13.5
Thailand 18.1 18.7 12.8 -1.4 -0.4 16.1 13.6 12.1 Turkey 19.0 9.9 8.5 1.3 -0.4 13.7 12.5 11.5
EPS growth 3M chg. in P/E
(%) est. (%) (x)
2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013
Consumer Discretionary 7.7 39.7 15.6 -0.2 2.0 15.5 11.1 9.6
Consumer Staples 6.2 16.6 16.1 -2.7 -2.2 27.0 23.2 20.0
Energy -14.5 3.7 4.0 -3.2 -2.8 7.2 7.0 6.7
Financials 7.3 9.4 12.0 1.4 1.3 11.0 10.0 8.9
Health Care 12.4 20.3 21.2 -1.9 -1.9 27.8 23.1 19.0
Industrials 7.8 8.1 21.6 -5.0 -2.9 15.2 14.4 11.9
Information Technology 38.9 40.8 14.4 7.2 8.3 15.7 11.1 9.7
Materials -33.7 13.3 13.5 -13.2 -11.7 12.9 11.5 10.2
Telecomms Services 1.0 8.6 4.8 -3.9 -7.6 13.9 12.8 12.2
Utilities 2.0 27.1 15.7 -2.7 2.5 15.5 12.2 10.5
EMF -1.4 15.1 11.6 -1.3 -0.7 12.6 10.9 9.8
EM Asia 6.6 20.6 13.2 0.8 1.5 13.5 11.3 10.0
EM Europe -8.7 -3.1 4.4 -2.1 -2.0 6.6 6.8 6.5 EM Latin America -17.7 18.2 11.7 -5.1 -4.2 14.9 12.6 11.3
Index US$ performance 22 May 13 1W 1M 3M YTD 12M
Argentina 1.5 2.7 -0.2 6.1 15.1
Brazil 1.2 3.6 -0.3 -0.8 7.1
Chile -1.2 -2.8 -9.1 -3.5 1.2
China 0.2 4.2 -1.0 -2.0 14.7
Colombia 0.6 -2.7 -11.9 -13.9 -3.0
Czech Republic -0.6 -0.2 -10.9 -18.0 -15.7
Egypt -1.0 2.4 -7.9 -10.0 -4.8
Hungary 3.1 9.3 0.3 6.3 20.2
India -1.7 2.3 1.1 1.4 25.2
Jordan -0.2 -2.6 -8.0 -4.3 -5.1
Indonesia 2.0 1.7 8.3 16.6 22.3
Israel 3.2 1.6 1.2 4.4 3.0
Korea 1.8 4.3 -5.5 -5.5 11.1
Malaysia -0.4 6.6 14.3 8.8 18.7
Mexico -4.9 -5.9 -4.6 -2.8 19.3
Morocco -3.1 -7.2 -3.1 -5.8 -8.6
Pakistan 3.8 17.2 14.1 22.5 28.6
Peru 0.6 -2.3 -10.2 -18.0 -7.8
Philippines 0.1 4.3 9.0 26.6 57.7
Poland -1.0 2.1 -4.0 -10.6 19.2
Russia 4.7 10.4 -3.4 -1.8 12.7
South Africa -3.4 3.2 -5.5 -11.7 -0.3
Taiwan 0.9 5.2 4.9 6.5 15.2
Thailand -0.4 1.2 4.4 12.9 34.9
Turkey -0.4 9.1 20.6 15.3 64.4
Consumer Discretionary 0.8 5.4 0.3 -0.1 13.7
Consumer Staples -1.0 2.0 3.1 4.5 23.6
Energy 1.0 4.9 -3.7 -6.8 2.5
Financials 0.3 4.2 1.9 4.3 26.2
Health Care -1.1 4.5 5.5 6.7 29.7
Industrials -0.1 4.0 -2.0 -1.1 10.6
Information Technology 1.6 4.8 2.0 4.6 20.8
Materials -0.5 -0.7 -11.0 -16.0 -5.1
Telecommunication Services -1.2 4.0 1.8 -2.0 6.9
Utilities -1.1 -0.1 0.1 0.9 5.1
EMF 0.2 3.6 -0.5 -0.7 14.0
EM Asia 0.5 4.1 0.8 1.4 16.9
EM Europe 2.5 8.5 0.9 -0.2 21.5
EM Latin America -0.6 0.2 -3.1 -2.8 8.2
Note: Sectors are EMF sectors.
Source for all figures: MSCI, IBES Aggregates
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Operational and valuation data showing top ten VALUATION
Top 10 P/E (x) Top 10 P/B (x) Top 10 dividend yield (%)
FY1 FY1 FY1
1 IOBK.BO IOB 4.2 1 2345.HK Shanghai Prime 0.35 1 601139.SS Shenzhen Gas 15.2
2 3333.HK Evergrande 4.4 2 015760.KS KEPCO 0.35 2 FAUF.KA Fauji Fertiliser 14.2
3 005380.KS Hyundai Motor 4.5 3 ABAN.BO Aban Offshore 0.37 3 NBPK.KA NBP 13.1
4 CAIL.BO Cairn India 4.5 4 1393.HK Hidili 0.38 4 HPWR.KA HUBC 11.5
5 STRL.BO Sterlite 4.5 5 0845.HK Glorious 0.39 5 FATF.KA FATIMA 10.6
6 1638.HK Kaisa 4.7 6 1138.HK China Shipping Dev 0.41 6 PKOL.KA POL 10.4
7 UNBK.BO UnionBank 4.8 7 IOBK.BO IOB 0.41 7 000568.SZ Luzhou Laojiao 9.2
8 BOI.BO BOI 5.0 8 1768.HK Sateri 0.43 8 BANP.BK Banpu 9.0
9 1208.HK MMG 5.2 9 1136.HK TCC International 0.43 9 AMEL.SI Amtek Eng 8.7
10 000270.KS KIA Motors 5.2 10 0368.HK Sinotrans 0.45 10 UBL.KA UBL 8.0
OPERATIONAL
Top 10 sales growth (%) Top 10 gross margin (%) Top 10 EPS growth (%)
FY1 FY1 FY1
1 BEL.PS Belle Corp 146 1 1138.HK China Shipping Dev 830 1 6505.TW FPCC 945
2 1293.HK Baoxin Auto 121 2 3481.TW Innolux 810 2 112040.KQ WeMade Ent 926
3 0012.HK Henderson Land 115 3 NEPS.SI NOL 474 3 2618.TW EVA 879
4 COKI.NS Cox & Kings 111 4 2409.TW AUO 466 4 BLOOM.PS Bloomberry 749
5 ADAN.BO Adani Power 109 5 6505.TW FPCC 347 5 066570.KS LGE 710
6 KIJA.JK Jababeka 94 6 1733.HK Winsway 315 6 UNSP.BO United Spirits 638
7 GDG.L GDG 91 7 2600.HK Chalco 288 7 1303.TW NYPC 570
8 112040.KQ WeMade Ent 79 8 600550.SS Tianwei Baobian 280 8 1211.HK BYD 556
9 SCMA.JK Surya Citra 75 9 8046.TW NYPCB 256 9 EJ.N E-House China 552
10 0101.HK Hang Lung Prop 75 10 MAXI.BO Max India 249 10 032640.KS LG Uplus 546
Top 10 ROE (%) Top 10 Free Cashflow Yield (%) Top 10 Net cash/ equity (%)
FY1 FY1 FY1
1 STAR.SI StarHub 691.8 1 3330.HK Lingbao 67 1 DANG.N E-commerce China 321
2 DSOM.KL DiGi 669.4 2 1393.HK Hidili 61 2 0992.HK Lenovo Group 169
3 BATO.KL BAT Malaysia 164.3 3 DOID.JK Delta Dunia Makmur 47 3 COAL.BO Coal India 137
4 1128.HK Wynn Macau 148.4 4 095660.KQ Neowiz Games 46 4 MCEI.BO MCX 136
5 HLL.BO Hindustan Unilever 145.5 5 0817.HK Franshion PPT 40 5 CPALL.BK C.P. All 130
6 UNVR.JK Unilever Indon 124.9 6 ABAN.BO Aban Offshore 36 6 STEC.BK Sino-Thai Engr 127
7 COLG.BO Colgate 116.2 7 SPRD.OQ Spreadtrum 35 7 XRS.N TAL 122
8 INTUCH.BK SHIN 99.8 8 ICMN.BO India Cements 35 8 0880.HK SJM 118
9 ADVA.BK AIS 96.2 9 FATF.KA FATIMA 34 9 2498.TW HTC 111
10 2282.HK MGM China 84.7 10 3481.TW Innolux 33 10 GLAX.BO Glaxo 107
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
Top 10 performers Bottom 10 performers
1M% 1M%
1 DANG.N E-commerce China 65.9 1 0970.HK Sparkle Roll -29.0
2 MY.N China Ming Yang 56.7 2 3368.HK Parkson -22.9
3 1211.HK BYD 33.2 3 SPRD.OQ Spreadtrum -22.8
4 UNVR.JK Unilever Indon 32.8 4 0551.HK Yue Yuen -22.0
5 300059.SZ East Money 32.8 5 MISC.KL MISC -21.2
6 2208.HK Goldwind 32.5 6 3330.HK Lingbao -21.1
7 3008.TW Largan 31.3 7 2347.TW Synnex -20.4
8 CHRM.OQ Charm Communication 28.1 8 2314.HK Lee & Man Paper -18.3
9 SINA.OQ Sina 26.2 9 1177.HK Sino Biopharm -18.0
10 AOT.BK AOT 25.6 10 VENM.SI Venture -17.9
Note: Ratios based on Credit Suisse FY1 estimates, Source: Credit Suisse estimates
23 May 2013
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Credit Suisse macroeconomic forecasts
23 May 2013
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Credit Suisse global economic forecasts
2011E 2012E 4Q to 4Q Annual average
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 10 11 12E 13E 10 11 12E 13E 14E
Global Real GDP (YoY) 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.7 3.4 3.3 4.1 5.0 3.8 3.3 3.8 IP (YoY) 3.4 3.5 3.3 4.3 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.2 8.0 3.7 4.3 5.2 9.6 5.0 3.6 4.8 Inflation (YoY) 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 4.7 3.7 3.4
US Real GDP (QoQ ann) 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.3 Inflation (YoY) 2.8 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 3.3 2.0 1.4 1.6 3.1 2.1 1.5 Policy rate 0-.25 0-.25 0-.25 0-.25 0-.25 0-.25 0-.25 0-.25 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-yr bond yield 2.25 1.65 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.55 1.65 1.75 … ... ... ... ... ... ...
Japan Real GDP (QoQ ann) 4.7 1.7 -1.3 -0.5 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.3 -0.5 1.1 2.5 4.4 -0.7 2.2 1.3 Inflation (YoY) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 Policy rate 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.1 0-0.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-yr bond yield 1.10 1.20 0.90 1.00 1.00 ... ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... USDJPY 80.5 79.8 77.4 78.3 80.3 82.3 ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ...
Euro-15 Real GDP (QoQ ann) 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.2 0.7 -0.6 1.2 1.9 1.5 -0.5 0.5 Inflation (YoY) 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.0 Policy rate 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-yr bond yield 2.00 1.40 1.40 1.65 1.90 2.10 ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... ... EURUSD 1.28 1.27 1.19 1.17 1.18 1.19 ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
UK Real GDP (QoQ ann) -1.7 -1.4 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 1.9 2.1 0.7 -0.3 1.4 Inflation (YoY) 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.4 4.6 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.5 2.4 2.0 Policy rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-yr bond yield 2.20 1.80 1.80 2.00 2.30 2.35 ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... ... GBPUSD 1.53 1.57 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.55 ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Switzerland Real GDP (QoQ ann) 2.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 2.0 0.9 2.1 3.8 3.1 2.0 0.5 2.2 2.7 2.1 0.5 1.5 Inflation (YoY) -0.9 -1.0 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2 -0.3 1.0 Policy rate 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 ... ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... ... USDCHF 0.93 0.95 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 ... ... … ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
NJ Asia Real GDP (QoQ ann) 8.8 6.8 7.0 4.7 7.3 6.3 6.2 7.6 8.5 6.7 4.7 7.6 9.2 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.1
Inflation (YoY) 5.5 6.1 5.8 4.8 4.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 5.2 5.3 4.8 3.0 5.0 4.5 3.3 3.8 4.7 China Real GDP (YoY) 8.1 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 9.8 8.9 7.7 7.9 10.3 9.2 7.8 8.0 8.2 IP (YoY) 11.6 9.9 12.4 12.6 11.6 9.5 9.1 10.0 13.3 12.8 12.6 10.0 15.7 13.7 10.1 10.5 11.2 Inflation (YoY) 5.4 6.4 6.1 4.1 3.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 4.7 4.6 4.1 1.9 3.3 5.4 2.6 3.2 4.3 *India Real GDP (YoY) 9.2 8.0 6.7 6.1 5.3 5.5 5.3 4.5 8.7 6.4 6.1 4.5 8.4 6.5 5.0 6.5 7.5
EMEA Real GDP 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 5.2 4.2 3.3 3.4 4.7 4.9 3.3 3.6 Inflation (YoY) 5.9 5.4 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.2 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.2 6.6 6.7 5.5 5.9
Latin America Real GDP 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.2 5.5 3.7 3.4 4.2 6.3 4.6 3.1 3.9 Inflation (YoY) 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.4
Note: IMF PPP weights are used to compute regional and global aggregate figures. 10-year bond yield figures are averages for the last month of
each quarter; *Annual figures are on fiscal year basis.
Source: Credit Suisse estimates
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Credit Suisse Asian economic forecasts Consensus
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2011F 2012F 2013F
China Real GDP 9.2 7.8 8.0 8.2 9.2 7.8 8.2
Inflation 5.4 2.6 3.2 4.3 5.4 2.6 3.2
3-month interbank rate (year-end) 5.5 3.9 4.2 5.1 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 6.13 6.21 6.12 6.07 … … …
Hong Kong Real GDP 4.9 1.4 3.2 3.4 5.0 1.4 3.5
Inflation 5.3 4.1 4.5 3.9 5.3 4.1 4.2
3-month HIBOR (year-end) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 7.76 7.80 7.80 7.80 … … …
India Real GDP 6.5 5.0 6.5 7.5 7.2 5.2 6.3
Inflation 8.9 7.3 5.9 7.0 8.2 7.4 6.4
Repo rate (year-end) 8.50 7.50 6.75 7.25 … … …
Spot 3m 12m . . .
Currency, per USD 55.75 55.00 56.50 56.50 … … …
Indonesia Real GDP 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.3 6.4 6.2 6.2
Inflation 5.4 4.3 5.5 6.2 5.3 4.3 5.1
Overnight SBI yield (year-end) 6.00 5.75 6.25 6.75 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 9,799 10,200 10,350 10,350 … … …
Korea Real GDP 3.6 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.6 2.0 3.0
Inflation 4.0 2.2 2.2 2.8 4.2 2.2 2.5
Overnight call rate (year-end) 3.25 2.75 2.50 2.50 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 1,122 1,175 1,200 1,200 … … …
Malaysia Real GDP 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.6 5.1
Inflation 3.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.2 1.7 2.2
Overnight Policy rate (year-end) 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 3.04 3.13 3.05 3.05 … … …
Philippines Real GDP 3.9 6.6 6.6 6.2 3.9 6.6 6.1
Inflation 4.7 3.1 3.3 4.4 4.6 3.1 3.6
Overnight borrowing rate (year-end) 4.50 3.50 3.50 4.50 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 41.54 41.70 40.80 40.80
Singapore Real GDP 4.9 1.3 1.5 3.5 5.0 1.3 2.7
Inflation 5.2 4.6 3.5 3.0 5.1 4.6 3.7
3m SIBOR (year-end) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.27 … … …
Taiwan Real GDP 4.0 1.3 2.7 3.4 4.4 1.3 3.5
Inflation 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8
Overnight call rate (year-end) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 29.95 30.30 30.80 28.80 … … …
Thailand Real GDP 0.1 6.4 5.2 5.0 1.6 6.4 4.8
Inflation 3.8 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.0 3.4
Overnight Repo rate (year-end) 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.5 … … …
Spot 3m 12m
Currency, per USD 30.03 29.40 30.50 30.00 … … …
* Through 2006, Thailand's policy rate was the 14-day repo rate
Source: CEIC, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Credit Suisse estimates
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Real interest rates Real policy rates
1
Annual forecast
Current 2012(F) 2013(F) 2014(F)
China 3.60 3.50 2.00 2.25
Hong Kong -3.62 -3.20 -3.60 -3.30
India 2.36 1.54 0.55 -0.25
Indonesia 0.18 1.45 0.25 0.75
Korea 1.30 1.35 -0.30 -0.80
Malaysia 1.40 1.80 0.10 0.90
Philippines 0.90 0.60 0.00 -0.62
Singapore -3.13 -3.92 -2.62 -2.50
Taiwan 0.84 0.28 -0.55 0.15
Thailand 0.33 -0.85 -1.40 -0.10
1 NJA Policy Rates: China=Average One Year Lending Rate, Hong kong-3 month interbank rate, India-
Repo rate, Indonesia-Overnight Rate, Korea- Base rate, Malaysia-overnight Rate, Philippines-Overnight
rate, Singapore-3 month interbank rate, Taiwan: Discount rate, Thailand- Overnight repo rate, Vietnam-
Discount rate
Real rates are calculated as 'policy rates – YoY inflation'
Source: Central banks, CEIC, Statistical agencies, Credit Suisse
23 May 2013
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Top stories from Credit Suisse research last week
23 May 2013
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Asia Technology Strategy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ New report: Yen and you—What JPY move means for the tech sector Manish Nigam / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7067 / [email protected]
● JPY has depreciated sharply since late 2012. In our full report, we look at what a weak (or even weaker) JPY means for the technology sector and conclude that the market is still figuring out the full impact and there is still money to be made on this theme.
● The translation effect of JPY depreciation on earnings is immediate and is reasonably well understood, though, in our view, published estimates haven’t yet captured the full impact.
● In our view, to begin with, most Japanese tech companies will use these currency-related gains to improve their profitability and further their restructuring programmes. Though, over time (12-18 months), we do expect some shifts in market shares, particularly in substrates/PCBs, passives and in semi-wafers.
● To a lesser degree, share shifts are also likely in small batteries and HDD components and possibly in LCD TVs. Asian TFT panel makers should gain on account of lower raw material costs as several of the Japan-sourced materials are priced in JPY. Figure 1 shortlists some of the most impacted names as per our research.
Figure 1: Likely winners and losers over the next 12-18 months Sensitivity of OP Name Ticker Key product exposure to ¥1 chg
Gainers Murata 6981 MLCC (32%); Comm modules (32%) 2.4% TDK 6762 HDD parts (27%); MLCC (14%) 3.4% Ibiden 4062 Substrates (41%); PCB (15%) 5.5% AUO/LGD 2409.TW/ TFT Panels (100%) 2-5% 034220.KS Sony 6758 TVs (15%); DSC/ camcorders (11%) 3.3% Losers SEMCO 009150.KS MLCC (22%); Camera modules
(21%); substrates/PCB (~26%) *
Unimicron 3037.TW IC carrier (45%); HDI (40%) * Samsung SDI 006400.KS Battery (58%); PDP (35%) * LG Electronics 066570.KS TVs (38%); Appliance (29%) *
* Potential market-share/ margin loss over 12-18 months. Source: Credit Suisse estimates
With BOJ’s unorthodox policy initiatives, JPY has depreciated sharply against the USD and the Euro. By itself, the fall in the value of JPY isn’t going to create winners out of the Japanese tech industry, the same way that the multi-year appreciation to less than 80 JPY/USD didn’t kill the sector completely. Nevertheless, we do believe that the change in the currency value is a material event with the following four main conclusions:
1) Most Japanese tech company earnings have a significant sensitivity to the value of JPY, thus helping their earnings on account of translation gains. This is the most obvious conclusion and to some degree already reflected in stock prices and street earnings estimates.
2) Given how poor OPM and ROEs have been for Japanese companies in recent years, it is reasonable to believe that companies are going to focus on improving their profitability rather than going for share gains at least in the initial few quarters.
3) Japan is either already quite dominant in certain areas or only has a marginal presence, thereby limiting the impact on global market-share shifts on account of movements in JPY. Nevertheless, given our
house view that JPY could weaken to 120 in a year’s time, it is quite likely that there are going to be competitive shifts in some areas. We believe that Japanese companies in substrates/PCBs, passives and semi-wafers are likely to see market share gains. Shifts are also likely, though less so, in small batteries and in HDD components. Similarly, we see scope for Japanese TV brands to regain some of their global shares if they can get their production and distribution strategy right. Lastly, Asian TFT manufacturers stand to gain on their costs as LCD glass and some other key raw materials are priced in JPY.
4) Looking at how the street has changed earnings estimates YTD, we believe that while a part of the JPY-related translation benefits have been built into FY14 estimates, the underlying poor demand fundamentals in 1Q13 has meant that analysts have erred on the side of caution on that front. Secondly, at this stage, hardly anyone seems to be building in the medium-term impact of JPY changes on market share for either the Japanese companies or their competitors. So following this theme could still lead to money making ideas.
What is in the full report?
The logic we have used to conduct this exercise is as follows:
We first consider market share for Japanese companies in all the major tech sub-sectors to figure out their degree of presence in various sectors. We then look at companies whose earnings are quite sensitive to JPY (a proxy for cost/revenue analysis). Combining the two, we narrow down to tech sub-sectors most vulnerable to share shifts on account of JPY depreciation. We also look at OPM and ROE data to subjectively figure out if the companies would use the JPY-related gains to improve their profitability or to go after share gains. Lastly, we tabulate how earnings for these Japanese stocks and the most likely to be impacted non-Japanese stocks have changed YTD to gauge the extent to which these dynamics are already reflected in their fundamentals (forecast earnings).
Figure 2: Valuation comparison table PE (x) EPS growth (%) PB (x)
Name Ticker Price TP Rat 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
Murata 6981 8770 9000 O 20.5 15.4 121.3 33.3 2.2 TDK 6762 4040 4200 O 16.1 11.9 514.5 34.6 0.9 IBIDEN 4062 1812 1700 N 13.3 11.5 392.1 15.8 0.9 AU Optronics 2409.TW 13.7 17 O 16.2 8.9 - to + 82.7 0.7 LG Display 034220.KS 30900 45K O 11.7 11.4 320.6 2.0 1.0 Sony 6758 2082 1600 N 46.4 30.3 -11.1 53.1 1.0 SEMCO 009150.KS 96700 114K O 13.5 10.6 21.7 27.4 2.9 Unimicron 3037.TW 31.1 33.5 N 11.7 10.2 18.6 14.1 0.9 Samsung SDI 006400.KS 127K 142K N 13.7 13.1 -71.3 4.8 0.8 LG Elect 066570.KS 86100 82000 N 18.6 14.1 709.8 31.8 1.1
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 20 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 13
China Banks Sector ---------------------------------------------------------- Maintain OVERWEIGHT New report: CS proxy-NPL ratio approaching GFC levels Sanjay Jain / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6088 / [email protected] Vineet Thodge / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7466 / [email protected] Contribution by Steven Zhu
● CS proxy-NPL ratio spiked in 2012 to 7.5% based on a sample of 2,427 A-share listed non-financial companies, up from 3.9% in 2011. This ratio is based on debt of companies in which EBITDA is less than interest expense, i.e., interest coverage <1.0x. Full report.
● Top three cases account for 55% of the proxy-NPL value and excluding them, the CS proxy-NPL ratio is 3.4% (1.9% ex-top ten). Note that projects under construction and LGFV lending of 2009-10 are not counted here (also, sectors such as mining, solar, textile and property are showing little impairment as yet).
● CS proxy-NPL ratio may climb in 2013-14 as real economy sectors are struggling. Chinese companies were used to sales growth of 25-30% until 2011 but it slipped to 9% in 2012. Compounding their woes was a 48% jump in interest expense vis-a-vis 2% growth in EBITDA, hence net profits were flat last year.
● Banks, which are reporting a 1.0% NPL ratio, attribute the discrepancy to: (a) companies still paying interest; and (b) expected government support for economy-critical SOEs.
Figure 1: CS proxy-NPL ratio versus bank-reported NPL ratio (%)
3.0
0.7
8.18.9
5.2
1.0
3.9
7.5
3.42.6 2.2
1.6 1.71.2 1.0 1.0
0.0
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4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2006 2007 2008 1H09 2009 2010 2011 2012
Proxy NPL ratio (%) Reported NPL ratio (CS coverage universe)
Source: Wind (2,427 A-share listed non-financial companies), Credit Suisse estimates
The result: CS proxy-NPL ratio spiked in 2012 to 7.5%
The proxy-NPL ratio has gone up from 3.9% in 2011 to 7.5% in 2012. Ironically, it may actually be under-estimating the underlying impairment since projects under construction and LGFV loans are not counted in the sample above.
Figure 2: CS proxy-NPL ratio by sector (2012, %)
27.0
22.1
17.3
14.9
11.9
11.7
11.6
0.7
0.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
MGF - Metals
Transport & Storage
Wholesale & Retail
MGF- Electronics
MGF-Mach & Equip
MGF- Petrochem
Construction
Property
Mining
Utilities
Source: Wind (2,427 A-share listed non-financial companies), Credit Suisse estimates
And as the chart above highlights, some sectors such as mining, textile, property and power generation show very little stress in the sample. This may change in the future.
Real economy sectors are struggling
The Chinese corporate sector was used to growing topline at 25-30% every year, which was a multiple of nominal GDP growth (15.7% CAGR over 10 years until 2011), but sales slipped to 9% growth in 2012 (Nominal GDP growth 9.8% in 2012) which led to flat profits. EBITDA margin dropped to levels below that of the global financial crisis (2008).
Figure 3: Sales, EBITDA, net profits and int exp growth in A-share corps. (%) 4Y CAGR (03-07) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales growth 27.7 18.5 4.4 35.6 23.0 9.1 EBITDA growth 25.7 (13.3) 23.1 34.2 10.8 1.9 Net profit growth 31.1 (12.9) 28.1 39.0 13.0 1.0 Int exp growth 22.2 34.5 (14.9) 22.8 43.2 47.8
EBITDA/sales 12.0 13.8 13.5 12.1 11.4 Net profit/sales 5.1 6.1 6.6 5.6 4.7 Interest cover (x) 7.1 10.6 10.5 9.3 6.2
Source: Wind (2,427 A-share listed non-financial companies), Credit Suisse estimates
Hence, interest coverage in our sample has fallen to 6.2x, which is still healthy, but as mentioned earlier, masks companies struggling to meet interest payment obligations. In fact, 115 companies had a loss at EBITDA level itself.
We are projecting credit costs for the H-share banks under our coverage to rise towards 65 bp in 2013E and 76 bp in 2014E (from 53 bp in 2012). However, as the chart below shows, nominal GDP growth falling to 10% YoY levels would suggest credit cost should be 120 bp.
Figure 4: Nominal GDP suggests credit costs to be 120 bp 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1800.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2005
1H06
2H06
1H07
2H07
1H08
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1H09
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1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
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4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
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1Q13
Nom GDP YoY (LHS) Credit costs in bp (RHS, reverse)
Source: Wind, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 5: China banks—valuation snapshot Rating Price 12M PT Upside P/E P/B ROAE Div Y
15-May (HK$) (%) 13E 14E 13E 14E 13E 14E 13E
ICBC-H O 5.55 6.33 14 6.4 6.3 1.2 1.1 20.0 17.9 5.5 CCB-H O 6.48 7.51 16 6.4 6.2 1.2 1.1 19.8 18.2 5.4 ABC-H N 3.79 4.11 8 6.3 6.0 1.1 1.0 19.2 18.0 5.5 BOC-H N 3.78 4.05 7 6.1 6.1 0.9 0.8 15.7 14.2 5.7 BCOM-H N 6.18 6.64 7 6.0 5.8 0.9 0.8 15.4 14.5 5.0 CMB-H N 16.76 18.03 8 6.1 5.7 1.2 1.1 21.4 19.8 4.9 CITIC-H N 4.42 4.90 11 5.2 4.9 0.7 0.7 14.9 14.1 4.8 CMBC-H U 10.06 9.54 -5 5.5 5.4 1.2 1.0 23.2 20.4 1.9 CQRC-H N 4.05 4.66 15 5.4 4.9 0.8 0.7 16.3 16.0 5.6
Sector 6.2 6.0 1.1 1.0 18.6 17.1 5.2
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 16 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 14
India Mortgage Sector ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Market position of HFCs should remain strong Sunil Tirumalai / Research Analyst / 91 22 6777 3714 / [email protected] Ashish Gupta / Research Analyst / 91 22 6777 3895 / [email protected] Chunky Shah / Research Analyst / 91 22 6777 3872 / [email protected] Prashant Kumar / Research Analyst / 91 22 6777 3942 / [email protected]
● The Indian mortgage industry remains underpenetrated (9-11 years behind China and Thailand), and should see sustained high growth rates. However, there have been concerns on HFCs recently due to aggression from banks in the home loan market.
● Our analysis, on the other hand, shows that the room for banks to turn more aggressive on pricing without affecting profitability is limited. The base rate regime as well as current low profitability of mortgage business for banks (vs their own benchmark returns and HFC profitability) restricts further pricing aggression from banks.
● We also highlight that with bond markets now becoming the prime funding source (~60%) for Indian mortgage financiers such as HDFC and LIC Housing Finance (LICHF), the easing bond yield cycle is driving a rapid drop in their funding costs
● Structural growth story in Indian mortgage segment remains strong and the HFCs continue to be the most efficient and profitable players in the segment. We initiate coverage on LICHF with OUTPERFORM with TP of Rs 365 (32% upside); and increase TP of HDFC to Rs 1,045. Click here to view full report.
Valuation metrics Company Ticker Rating Price Year P/E (x) P/B (x)
Local Target T T+1 T+2 T+1
LIC Housing Finance LICH.BO O 275.65 365 03/13 10.1 8.1 1.8 HDFC HDFC.BO O 903.50 1,045 03/13 16.3 13.6 4.2
Note: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Beneficiaries of bonds. Bond markets are now the prime funding source (~60%) for Indian mortgage financiers such as HDFC and LIC Housing Finance (LICHF). The easing bond yield cycle is driving a rapid drop in their funding costs. In particular, LICHF that had witnessed a 90 bp spread compression over the past two years is now well positioned to see a strong NIM rebound.
Threat from banks overdone. One of the common concerns about housing finance companies (HFCs) has been the potential increase in competitive intensity from the banks, given the slowdown in other lending opportunities (corporate segment), particularly post the dismantling of the pre-payment charge regime. However, banks in India have migrated to a base-rate regime in the past two years and are not allowed to lend below that. Bank mortgage rates are already close to their base rates and therefore room for competitive pricing is limited without a sharp cut in base rate. Given the likely pressure on NIMs from sharp base rate cuts, stickiness in retail deposit rates and bank funding costs, base rate cuts are unlikely to match the bond yield drop. Further, our detailed analysis shows that the profitability of the mortgage business for banks is lower than for HFCs, and their own benchmark profitability.
Initiating coverage on LICHF with OUTPERFORM; maintain OUTPERFORM on HDFC. The structural growth story in India’s mortgage segment remains strong and the HFCs continue to be the most efficient and profitable players in the segment. We initiate
coverage on LICHF with our TP implying 32% upside, as with the NIM rebound we expect earnings growth of 31% in FY14 after the 8% growth in FY13. Also, we raise our TP for HDFC to Rs1,045 as with improved competitiveness, its P/E discount to retail banks should moderate. With wholesale funding rates now ~25 bp lower than the retail deposit rates, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT on the NBFC sector. Other NBFCs, such as SHTF (O), IDFC (O) and MMFS (N), are also potential beneficiaries of falling wholesale rates, in our view.
Figure 1: Specialist housing finance companies (HFCs) are significant players in the home loan market
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Sizes of mortgage loan books
(darker columns represent HFCs)Rs mn
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Figure 2: Fall in bond yields should help housing finance companies (HFCs) become competitive on cost of funds versus banks
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
SBI Base Rate AAA 5 yr bond yield Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Figure 3: Concerns about pricing aggression by banks seem overdone; base rate sets a floor on home loan rates
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
SBI ICICI Bank PNB BOB Ax is Bank
Base Rate (%) Current Home Loan rate (%)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 21 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 15
China Basic Materials Monthly ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: May 2013—So little, so short Trina Chen / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7031 / [email protected] Owen Liang, CFA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6093 / [email protected] Frankie Zhu / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7426 / [email protected]
● The feedback from our monthly channel checks on Chinese demand suggests the just ramped-up peak seasonality is now rolling over earlier than expected, given the activities started late this year. Other than appliances, copper fabrication and northern cement demand, most of the downstream and midstream producers are seeing a softening order book. In particular, Tier 2 steel mills are already seeing order book weakening in April-May. On a broader basis, power and coal demand continues to be weaker than normal.
● Feedback from producers as of mid-May suggests: (1) the forward order book trend of end-users softened MoM, with the percentage of respondents expecting an improvement softening to 33% in May versus 55% in April; and (2) the forward order books for materials remained soft.
● With soft demand combining with weak seasonality, we believe investors should hold more defensive strategy in the sector. Our top picks are Shenhua and Jiangxi Copper. Our least preferred stocks are Angang and Yanzhou. Full report.
Figure 1: Sector valuation summary Company Ticker Rate TP Price Upside Mkt cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDAPrice as of May 14 Tccy % US$bn 13E 14E 13E 14E 13E 14EShenhua 1088.HK O 39.7 27.2 46% 69.4 9 7 1.5 1.3 5.2 4.3Chinacoal 1898.HK O 9.6 5.8 66% 9.8 7 7 0.7 0.6 6.6 5.7Yanzhou 1171.HK U 6.6 8.0 -18% 5.0 12 10 0.7 0.6 8.1 6.7Yitai 3948.HK O 53.0 41.0 29% 8.6 8 6 2.2 1.7 5.1 3.7Fushan 0639.HK N 3.1 3.0 2% 2.1 10 10 0.8 0.8 3.8 3.2Hidili 1393.HK U 1.1 1.7 -35% 0.4 28 8 0.4 0.4 12 8.3MMC 0975.HK U 2.3 2.1 12% 1.0 17 10 1.2 1.1 9.1 6.6Winsway 1733.HK U 0.7 0.7 0% 0.3 n.a. n.a. 0.5 0.5 12 8.7Baosteel 600019.SS N 4.3 4.9 -13% 13.4 13 11 0.7 0.7 7.4 6.5Angang 0347.HK U 3.2 4.9 -35% 4.5 n.a. n.a. 0.6 0.6 9.8 9.5Maanshan 0323.HK U 1.6 1.9 -16% 1.9 n.a n.a 0.5 0.5 6.4 4.9Conch 0914.HK N 23.3 27.3 -15% 18.5 14 14 2.1 1.9 9.2 8.9CNBM 3323.HK U 7.4 9.1 -19% 6.3 6 6 1.1 0.9 7.5 7.4CRC 1313.HK N 4.3 4.3 -1% 3.6 10 10 1.2 1.1 7.6 6.7Shanshui 0691.HK N 4.2 4.4 -5% 1.6 7 8 1.1 1.0 5.7 6.0CNM 1893.HK N 2.4 1.9 27% 0.9 10 8 0.5 0.4 7.5 6.6TCCI 1136.HK U 1.7 2.2 -22% 0.9 7 8 0.4 0.4 5.8 6.7BBMG 2009.HK O 8.3 6.1 35% 3.4 6 6 0.8 0.7 8.1 7.4WCC 2233.HK O 1.8 1.3 35% 0.8 6 5 0.9 0.8 4.5 3.2Chalco 2600.HK O 4.0 3.1 29% 5.4 n.a. n.a. 0.9 1.2 n.a. n.a.UC Rusal 0486.HK N 4.8 3.9 24% 7.5 35 10 0.7 0.6 16 13Jiangxi Cu 0358.HK O 18.9 15.7 21% 7.0 10 10 1.0 0.9 5.4 5.6Zijin 2899.HK O 3.3 2.2 47% 6.3 9 9 1.3 1.2 6.0 6.3Minmetal 1208.HK O 3.2 2.4 31% 1.7 5 7 0.8 0.8 2.8 3.6CMOC 3993.HK O 4.2 3.1 36% 2.0 13 12 1.1 1.1 9.6 7.7HNC 2626.HK N 2.5 2.2 12% 1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.5 1.5 12 9.5Zhaojin 1818.HK O 14.5 8.1 80% 3.1 11 12 2.0 1.9 8.0 8.8CGG 2099.HK N 24.3 22.2 10% 1.1 19 20 0.7 0.7 10 8.1Lingbao 3330.HK U 2.0 2.3 -13% 0.2 9 8 0.6 0.5 6.6 6.0G-Resource 1051.HK N 0.3 0.4 -6% 0.8 13 5 0.9 0.9 6.2 2.7 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Channel checks on demand: So little, so short
Feedback from producers as of mid-May suggests: (1) the forward order book trend of end-users softened MoM, with the percentage of respondents expecting an improvement softening to 33% in May versus 55% in April; and (2) the forward order books for materials remained soft. Producers expecting an MoM improvement were nil for coal (versus nil in April), 17% for steel (versus 33% in April), 88% for
cement (versus 71% in April) and 75% for base metal fabricators and traders (versus 100% in April).
Figure 2: Our channel checks on downstream MoM order book trend
55%
10%
100%
55%
33%
9%
80%
0%
18%33%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2011 2012 2013 Improving MoM 2013 Declining MoM Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Steel: Soft seasonal demand peaking out
Based on spot prices, we estimate that the current unit EBITDA is US$25/t lower than 1H12 on average. Steel mills commented order books in May are either flat or starting rolling over MoM, with weakness coming from property and infrastructure, while auto/appliances remained stable. Finished steel inventory remains high through the peak season, imposing downside risk when seasonal strength fades. Coal: Poor demand and rising imports keep price at bottom
Channel checks suggest coal demand remains weak on the IPP side, and May outlook looks flattish. Coal producers are commenting declining demand YoY. The good news is IPP coal inventory continued to improve slightly in both absolute terms and days (20 days as of mid-April vs. 21 days in early March)—partly due to Daqin maintenance and offset by higher inventory at coal mines. Rising imports will also put further pressure in the coming weak season. We think prices will remain stable at the bottom, due to firm cost support. Cement: Mixed pricing
Cement prices have remained mixed since mid-April: (1) a Rmb20-30/t price cut in mid-April in BJ/TJ/HB, Shenyang, GX and Chongqing, and (2) prices in ZJ and Jiangxi hiked Rmb10-30/t. Recent feedbacks from cement producers suggest stable demand, mostly in line with the seasonal pattern. We expect the incremental S/D to stay stable over most of 2013, yet excess capacity to persist. We see valuation implies the high-end of the unit gross profit range, yet no strong negative catalysts, as cement prices should remain stable, amid mild seasonal weakness in the coming months in key regions. On a relative basis, we prefer Conch, WCC, BBMG. Base metal and REE: Tight Cu scrap and spot supplies
We see tight supply to continue in the copper spot market and the China scrap market, affecting some smelters’ utilisation. Shanghai bonded inventory estimated by CRU fell by 50kt MoM to 650kt as of 10 May. Shanghai CIF premium (versus LME) remained high at US$0.06/lb. On rare earth, REE prices are still falling (domestic basket price of Baotou was down 5% MoM, from Rmb115.4/kg to Rmb109.6/kg). Chinese government has reiterated the focus of 2013 to consolidate resources into five to seven SOE rare earth groups.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 16 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 16
Asia Pacific Financials Strategy --------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Indonesia—A breather in the near term? Sanjay Jain / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6088 / [email protected] Vineet Thodge / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7466 / [email protected]
● Investment has decelerated sharply… While real GDP growth was stable around 6%, nominal GDP fell sharply to 8.7% YoY in 1Q13. Within that, gross fixed capital formation growth plunged even more to 9.2% YoY (10Y CAGR 22.7%). Its two drivers, an extremely accommodative monetary policy and commodity prices, are incrementally less supportive. For banks, loan demand might moderate from the 22% YoY level. Click here for full report.
● … even before interest rates have started to rise. Inflation has rebounded to 5.6% after being surprisingly low for some time. Inflation might spike further if the government hikes the subsidised fuel price which might prompt the central bank to raise rates.
● ID banks: ROE has peaked? Slower investment and GDP should lead to falling loan demand while margins may not expand much. ROEs were down in 2012 despite a very low credit cost of 23 bp.
● India offers a contrast, switch but be selective. Rates could be cut further in India while GDP growth has bottomed. HFCs are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of falling rates. LICHF and HDFC are our top picks among HFCs and Axis among private sector banks.
● Figure 1: GFCF has decelerated sharply, banks could take a breather ID: Nom GDP vs GFCF growth YoY (%) MSCI banks YTD price perf (US$, %)
2624
14 14
11 119
7 7
4 3
-2-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ID PH TH AU MY SG HK NJA TW IN CN KR5.0
10.0
15.0
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GDP YoY GFCF YoY
Source: CEIC, Factset, Credit Suisse estimates
Investment is slowing…
GFCF has generally been growing faster than overall nominal GDP over the past decade, but growth converged in 1Q13, and now our economists are forecasting a reversal through the remaining three quarters of 2013.
What drives investment growth?
In an interesting piece of research, our economists found two key drivers of GFCF in Indonesia: (1) commodity prices, and (2) monetary policy. The connection between commodity prices and GFCF comes from corporate cash flows. Corporates invest in expansion or new projects when their selling prices are rising and cash flows improving. Sharply slowing GFCF will affect loan demand for investments and, with a lag, when the second round impact will be felt on overall economic activity, it will affect overall loan demand as well. As of now, loan growth at 22% YoY (10Y CAGR 22.3%) is running wildly ahead of nominal GDP growth of 8.7% YoY (10Y CAGR 16.3%), unsustainable in our view.
...even before interest rates have started rising
After surprising on the lower side for some time, consumer price inflation has rebounded to 5.6% (2012 average 4.3%, 10Y average
7.2%). If government hikes subsidised fuel prices, currently at half the market price, inflation will spike further towards the 8% level and might prompt the central bank to raise rates. Our economists forecast a 25 bp increase in the BI rate (currently 5.75%) and a 75 bp in the FASBI rate (4.00%). We believe current account and exchange rate are risks.
Figure 2: FASBI rate, BI rate and inflation (%)
4.00
5.755.57
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6.0
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12.0
14.0
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
FASBI BI Rate Inflation
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Credit Suisse
India offers a contrast, switch but be selective
India is the only country in Asia still fighting inflation which has given it the ability to cut rates further. RBI has trimmed the repo rate by 125 bp since April last year and our economists expect a further 50 bp cut. On the other hand, Indonesia is the only country in Asia that would need to raise interest rates during the year, in our view.
Figure 3: Policy rate already—125 bp in India; expect further -50 bp
0.00
-0.50
0.00
-0.13
0.75
-0.25
0.00 0.00
-0.60
-0.30
0.00
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0.90
CN IN KR TW ID TH MY PH
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates
GDP growth/GFCF growth has bottomed in India
GFCF growth is expected to pick up in India (some signs already visible in 4Q12) while it has decelerated in Indonesia. GDP growth in India seems to have bottomed and with easing inflation/expected rate cuts, India is in a sweet spot.
Play India through HFCs, the biggest beneficiaries of falling rates
Over the past few months, Indian bond yields (both government and corporate) have fallen by 60-100 bp. Ashish Gupta in his recent report highlighted that Indian government-owned banks are no longer proxy to bonds in the current cycle and prefer non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and private banks to play the easing rate cycle. Among NBFCs, our top picks would be housing finance companies (LICHF/HDFC). As for the banking sector, we worry about asset quality in the broader corporate segment. Be wary of government-owned banks, and we prefer Axis among the private sector banks.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 23 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 17
Asia Tech Distribution Sector ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ New report: Initiating coverage—Eyes on China's enterprise Thompson Wu / Research Analyst / 886 2 2715 6386 / [email protected]
● Favour enterprise distribution over consumer. China’s softening GDP growth has led to concerns about national consumption. PC declines over the past four quarters have sparked significant concerns about consumer demand. Overall, we are cautious on the consumer tech spending recovery in 2013. Instead, we prefer enterprise IT spending, which is growing, stable and more profitable, and is supported by national initiatives.
● Prefer Digital China to Synnex. Digital China and Synnex are China’s leading tech distributors. We prefer Digital China for its leading enterprise IT distribution position, and its IT services advantages. We initiate at OUTPERFORM with a TP of HK$15 based on 11x our CY13E EPS. Synnex’s exposure to China PC is greater, and expectations are higher on its telecom business, which is suffering from share loss and customer attrition, and expect earnings downgrades. Initiate at UNDERPERFORM with a TP of NT$40, based on 11x our CY13E.
● Sector risks: China GDP, and technology (i.e., PC to smartphones) and channel (retail store to online) shifts. Click here.
Figure 1: Favour enterprise distribution and IT service exposure
Distribution (PC, peripherals,
consumer IT)49.9%
Distribution (PC, peripherals,
consumer IT)25.4%
System (server, storage,
networking, software)
36.6% System (server, storage, networking,
software)44.9%
IT Service 13.5%
IT Service 29.7%
Info Technology (PC, peripherals,
printers, projectors)55.0%
Info Technology (PC, peripherals,
printers, projectors)55.9%
Telecom (smartphone) 11.2%
Telecom (smartphone)
17.2%
IC Comp (CPU, HDD) 17.5%
IC Comp (CPU, HDD) 11.8%
CE (tablets, games, TV) 16.3%
CE (tablets, games, TV) 15.2%
PC shipments:2.0%
Smartphone shipments: 42.0%
Tablet shipments:45.5%
Entreprise Hdwrevenue: 5.5%
Software revenue:15.0%
IT Service revenue:14.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Digital China Sales Digital China GrossProfit
Synnex Sales Synnex Gross Profit China Tech Forecasts:2011-16E CAGR
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Shift to online channels puts pressure on industry growth
Chinese consumers spent Rmb1.18 tn in online shopping last year. Industry researcher, China iResearch, expects this value to exceed Rmb26 tn by 2016. To drive this growth, online retail providers are working closer with their suppliers to expand product offering and services. We believe tightening of relationships between online retail providers and their suppliers will marginalise the distributors’ role, which has been historically to connect suppliers with local retail store.
Distribution growth from smartphones challenged
Credit Suisse expects smartphones to grow a compounded 42% during 2012-16. Distribution channels are evolving to keep pace with this demand and the changes in supplier distribution strategies. Our research
suggests that the shift in consumer purchasing to operator channels (from local retail stores) and share consolidation by Lenovo, Apple and Samsung are challenging distributors. The risk from these trends is a reduction in distributors’ role in the services they provide their channel partners (i.e., working capital and inventory management) and suppliers (i.e., marketing costs and fulfilment).
Specific growth opportunities in China enterprise
China’s enterprise sector invested US$82 bn last year in IT. Relative to its nominal GDP, China ranks tenth at 1.0% compared with the UK, which leads at 6.4% of nominal GDP. We believe there is a significant growth opportunity for China’s enterprise IT spending, propelled by its urbanisation.
Prefer Digital China to Synnex in this cycle
Digital China directly taps into China’s urbanisation through leading the IT systems business, an IT services team and Sm@rt City solutions. Strong growth from these enterprise-focused businesses, which enjoy higher margins, will overpower a slowdown in its PC business, in our view. Our 12-M TP of NT$15 is based on 11x our CY13E EPS. Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis is based on planned A-listing IPO of its IT services business in 2014E. In contrast, Synnex has: (1) a larger exposure to China PC; (2) faces distress in its telecoms (i.e., smartphone) business; and (3) lacks exposure to China’s enterprise market. We expect these factors to drive an earnings downgrade. Our 12-M TP of NT$40 is based on 11x our CY13E.
Figure 2: Steeper correction at DC: Shares trade 29% of its historical PE despite stronger EPS growth in FY14/14E and ROEs through 2015E
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
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10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
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08
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8
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09
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9
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Synnex forward P/E Digital China forward P/ESynnex 3YR Mean P/E Digital China 3YR mean P/E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Valuation metrics Rating Up/dn EPS Div. yld. ROE P/B (prev. Price TP chg to TP Year EPS change (%) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) (%) (%) (x)
Company Ticker rating) Local Target (%) (%) T T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+1
Digital China 0861.HK O (NA) 10.40 15.00 44 03/12 1.31 1.54 14 17 7.9 6.7 4.2 19.3 1.4 Synnex 2347.TW U (NA) 49.75 40.00 (20) 12/12 3.55 3.85 (4) 8 14.0 12.9 3.9 13.3 1.8
Note: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM, Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 6 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 18
Asia Equity Strategy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Reporting Season Scorecard—still associated with EPS upgrades Sakthi Siva / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3027 / [email protected] Kin Nang Chik / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7482 / [email protected]
● While it is traditional to Sell in May, we have been suggesting to investors in our recent visits in Hong Kong and Singapore to stay to play for three reasons.
● One, valuations. MXASJ price-to-book at 1.63x is still only 7% above the last four lows of 1.53x. Two, reporting season. After more than two years of consensus EPS downgrades, the current reporting season is associated with upgrades of 0.7% to 2013E consensus EPS. Three, we do not look crowded. While foreigners have resumed buying (US$4.6 bn so far in May), this comes after two consecutive months of net foreign selling.
● With 57% of market capitalisation having reported, we are seeing a 0.7% upgrade to 2013E consensus EPS. With 40 companies in Taiwan reporting so far, Taiwan leads with a 7.3% upgrade to 2013E consensus EPS.
● While Korea is still associated with net foreign selling so far in May of US$521 mn, India and Taiwan have attracted US$4.1 bn of the US$4.6 bn of net foreign buying in Emerging Asia ex China. Click here to view full report.
Figure 1: MSCI Asia ex-Japan price-to-book—over the last 4 years
1.63
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MSCI AC Asia ex JP - Trailing PB
2010 2011 2012 2013
1.53x at last 4 lows -Sep 2011, Nov 2011, May 2012, Aug 2012
2.1x at highs in Mar 2010 and Mar 2011
1.58x on 8 Apr
Source: MSCI
Sell in May or stay to play?
While it is traditional to Sell in May, we have been suggesting to investors in our recent visits in Hong Kong and Singapore to stay to play for three reasons. One, valuations. Figure 1 highlights that MSCI Asia ex-Japan (MXASJ) price-to-book at 1.63x is still only 7% above the last four lows of 1.53x. Two, reporting season. After more than two years of consensus EPS downgrades, the current reporting season is associated with upgrades of 0.7% to 2013E consensus EPS. Three, we do not look crowded. While foreigners have resumed buying (US$4.6 bn so far in May), this comes after two consecutive months of net foreign selling.
Taiwan leads upgrades this reporting season
With 57% of market capitalisation having reported, we are seeing a 0.7% upgrade to 2013E consensus EPS. With 40 companies in Taiwan reporting so far, Taiwan leads with a 7.3% upgrade to 2013E consensus EPS.
Taiwan and India attracting bulk of net foreign buying so far in May
While Korea is still associated with net foreign selling so far in May of US$521 mn, India and Taiwan have attracted US$4.1 bn of the US$4.6 bn of net foreign buying in Emerging Asia ex China.
Figure 2: Percentage change to 2013E consensus EPS—biggest stocks by market cap that have reported
curr. year
Mkt % chg to
cap 2013E Price Rat. Price
Code Name (US$ mn) cons. EPS 15-May target
941 HK China Mobile 223,760 0.9% 86.40 O 102.00 5 HK HSBC 211,046 0.8% 87.95 n/a n/a 939 HK CCB 200,723 4.1% 6.48 O 7.51 005930 KS SEC 198,223 9.1% 1,500,000 O 1,900,000 2330 TT TSMC 99,799 4.4% 115.00 O 116.00 WBC AU Westpac 97,159 1.5% 31.67 U 31.00 ANZ AU ANZ 81,307 1.5% 29.98 N 31.50 NAB AU NAB 76,569 0.3% 33.07 N 34.00 700 HK Tencent 65,354 0.3% 274.40 O 301.00 1398 HK ICBC 62,064 3.8% 5.55 O 6.33 TCS IN TCS 52,481 0.7% 1,471.55 O 1,760.00 ST SP SingTel 51,023 -0.4% 3.99 O 3.75 RIL IN Reliance Inds 48,193 -0.9% 819.00 O 1,006.00 1928 HK Sands China 41,987 4.6% 40.45 O 42.00 3988 HK BOC 40,726 4.8% 3.78 N 4.05 005380 KS Hyundai Motor 38,141 11.1% 193,000 O 254,500 762 HK China Unicom 34,524 -1.7% 11.36 O 18.20 DBS SP DBS 34,062 3.0% 17.38 R n/a PTT TB PTT Public 32,569 -0.2% 339.00 N 362.00 HDFCB IN HDFC Bank 30,976 -0.3% 714.85 O 770.00 OCBC SP OCBC 30,774 0.8% 11.15 U 9.80 ASII IJ Astra 29,280 -4.7% 7,050 O 9,000 ADVANC TB AIS 28,501 2.0% 285.00 O 295.00 UOB SP UOB 28,065 2.2% 22.00 N 21.00 3328 HK BCOM 27,878 3.8% 6.18 N 6.64 BBCA IJ BBCA 27,545 0.7% 11,000 N 11,000 857 HK PetroChina 27,239 -3.5% 10.02 N 10.70 6505 TT FPCC 26,845 11.3% 84.20 U 72.00 HDFC IN HDFC 25,656 0.0% 910.05 O 903.00 2412 TT CHT 25,237 -2.0% 97.20 U 82.00 ICICIBC IN ICICI Bank 25,044 4.3% 1,191.25 N 1,202.00 005490 KS POSCO 24,913 -26.4% 318,500 N 350,000 TLKM IJ Telkom 24,612 1.9% 11,900 O 13,000 INFO IN Infosys 24,577 -4.8% 2,360.45 N 2,450.00 2318 HK Ping An 24,416 -1.4% 60.55 O 83.00 BMRI IJ BMRI 24,054 1.4% 10,150 O 12,750 NTPC IN NTPC 23,634 -1.5% 157.30 O 170.00 BHARTI IN Bharti Airtel 23,501 -9.9% 322.65 O 385.00 BBRI IJ BRI 23,176 1.2% 9,250 N 9,000 HUVR IN Hindustan Unilever 23,069 -1.6% 585.50 N 500.00 012330 KS Hyundai Mobis 23,012 -1.5% 263,500 O 374,000 SCB TB SCB 22,432 0.4% 196.50 O 217.00 UNVR IJ Unilever 21,996 0.5% 28,100 U 15,725 386 HK Sinopec 21,746 3.5% 8.60 N 8.90 PTTEP TB PTTEP 21,699 -2.3% 162.50 U 158.00 2628 HK China Life 20,709 -1.2% 21.60 N 24.00 SCC/F TB Siam Cement F 20,101 2.2% 498.00 n/a n/a 000270 KS Kia Motors 19,893 -2.8% 54,700 O 64,900 SCC TB SCC 19,697 2.2% 488.00 U 404.00 Rating: O – Outperform, N – Neutral, U – Underperform, R –Restricted, n/a – Not rated. Source: IBES, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 6 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 19
Jardine Matheson / Jardine Strategic -------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Near-term positives priced in Gerald Wong, CFA / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3037 / [email protected] Cusson Leung, CFA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6621 / [email protected] Louis Chua / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3024 / [email protected]
● Underlying earnings of Jardine Matheson (JM) and Jardine Strategic (JS) from 1 Jan to 15 May 2013 increased marginally YoY, vs consensus expectation of a 16% increase for FY13.
● Astra’s 1Q13 earnings achieved 20% of FY13 consensus forecasts, due to lower margins in the auto division. Dairy Farm’s earnings were marginally lower YoY due to weakness in Malaysia. Vacancy rate for HongKong Land’s Central portfolio increased to 6.3% from 3.4% in December 2012, although the company continued to see positive rental reversions.
● While we continue to expect low-cost green car (LCGC) regulation to be passed in Indonesia in the coming months, and a recovery in the Hong Kong commercial property market in 2013, we believe these positives have been priced in. JM and JS are trading at discounts to NAV of 16% and 27%, respectively, close to historical lows.
● We lower our target prices for JM to US$72 (from US$74) and JS to US$42 (from US$43). Also, we downgrade both JM and JS to NEUTRAL (from Outperform) as we see limited potential upside. Full report.
Figure 1: Jardine Strategic—discount to NAV close to historical lows
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Discount to NAV Average Source: Bloomberg data, Credit Suisse estimates
Interim Management Statement (IMS) below expectations
Underlying earnings of Jardine Matheson (JM) and Jardine Strategic (JS) from 1 Jan to 15 May 2013 increased marginally YoY, versus consensus expectation of a 16% increase in FY13. This was driven by mixed trading conditions across key subsidiaries.
Astra’s 1Q13 earnings achieved 20% of FY13 consensus forecast, due to lower margins in the auto division following increased competition and higher labour costs. Dairy Farm’s earnings were marginally lower YoY due to weakness in Malaysia with more
aggressive promotional activity and increased cost pressure. Vacancy rate for HongKong Land’s Central portfolio increased to 6.3% from 3.4% in December 2012, although the company continued to see positive rental reversions.
Mandarin Oriental saw positive trading momentum, driven by robust performance of its hotels in Asia and the Americas. Jardine Pacific saw a decline in earnings with weaker performances in most of its businesses.
Lowering estimates; near-term positives priced in
Following the IMS, we reduce our 2013-14 EPS estimates for JM/JS by 4%, mainly through lower estimates for Astra, Dairy Farm and Jardine Pacific. Credit Suisse analyst Teddy Oetomo lowered his 2013 earnings forecasts for Astra by 4-5%, mainly on reduced expectation of the number of low-cost green cars to be sold by Astra. We also reduce our operating margin expectations for Dairy Farm to 5.0% for 2013 (from 5.3%), due to ongoing challenges in the Malaysia market.
We remain positive on the rollout of Astra’s low-cost green car (LCGC) in 2H13, as we expect regulation to be passed in Indonesia in the coming months. However, we reduce the number of units of LCGC to be sold by Astra from 166,000 to 90,000 as we take into account the risk of delay in the issuance of regulation. We also reduce our cost estimates on ASII on the back of completion of additional production capacity. Credit Suisse analyst Teddy Oetomo reduced his target price from Rp9,502 to Rp9,000. However, he maintains his OUTPERFORM rating on ASII.
We also expect a recovery in the Hong Kong commercial property market in 2013, in line with comments by Hongkond Land about signs of improvement in the office leasing market. According to JLL, effective rents for Grade-A Central offices has dropped QoQ, by 1.3% in 1Q13, narrowing from an average of -3.2% QoQ since the last peak in 4Q11. Credit Suisse analyst Joyce Kwock maintains her OUTPERFORM rating on Hongkong Land and target price of US$8.65.
Downgrade to NEUTRAL
We lower our target prices for JM to US$72 (from US$74) and JS to US$42 (from US$43). JM and JS are trading at discounts to NAV of 16% and 27%, respectively, close to their historical lows. Hence, we believe near-term positives have been priced in, and see limited potential upside, given strong share price performance since October 2012.
Valuation metrics Rating TP Up/dn Div. yld ROE P/B (prev. Price chg to TP Year EPS Chg(%) EPS EPS grth (%) P/E (x) (%) (%) (x)
Company Ticker rating) Local Target (%) (%) T T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+1
Jardine Matheson JARD.SI N (O) 68.94 72.00 (3) 4 12/12 (4) (4) 4.59 4.96 13 8 15.0 13.9 2.0 9.2 1.4 Jardine Strategic JSH.SI N (O) 41.00 42.00 (2) 2 12/12 (4) (4) 2.98 3.20 15 8 13.8 12.8 0.6 8.3 1.1
Note: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 20 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 20
Ping An -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maintain OUTPERFORM New report: A matter of trust EPS: ◄► TP: ◄► Arjan van Veen / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7508 / [email protected] Frances Feng / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6693 / [email protected]
● Ping An is a leading trust company in China with Rmb212 bn of AuM in 2012, representing 8% of group earnings and 9% of group net assets. Ping An Trust has been growing very rapidly, with 35% pa growth for the past five years. Click here for report.
● Repayment risk rising. Use Trust estimates the repayments of real estate trusts to be Rmb160 bn in 2012 and Rmb190 bn in 2013. We note the following risks for Ping An: (1) potential repayment losses; (2) uncertainty of trusts’ contribution to the group; (3) regulatory risks and (4) reputational/brand damage to the franchise. Trust leverage is high at 14x, with AuM at 1.3x of Ping An Group net assets.
● We highlight that cross-selling of trust products was 50% of life agents sales, up from 25% a year ago. We think there is potential cannibalisation risk for its life business as agents are drawn to easier sales and lower-margin segments.
● Ping An is trading at 15.9x 2013E P/E, 1.3x P/EV and 4x VNB multiple. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating, but note its higher risk profile (banking and trust exposure) than peers.
Click here for detailed financials
Ping An Trust one of the leading trust companies in China
Ping An Trust has been growing very rapidly, with 35% pa growth in AuM
over the past five years and ranked No. 9 at the end of 2012.
Repayment risk rising
Real estate trusts (which potentially carry higher risks) issuance have
peaked in the past two years and have started to enter the peak season in
terms of repayments, due in 2012 and 2013, as most of the projects have
a maturity of two years; Use Trust, estimates this to be Rmb157 bn in
2012 and Rmb190 bn in 2013.
Figure 1: Trust AuM has increased four-fold since 2008
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0
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FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Gro
wth
(%
pa)
AuM
(R
mb
mn)
Basic industry Real estate Capital markets Industrials
Financial institutions Others Growth Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research.
In our view, there are several risks facing Ping An in relation to its trust
business: (1) potential repayment losses; (2) the uncertainty of the trust
business contribution to the group; (3) regulatory risks and (4)
reputational/brand damage to the franchise
Figure 2: Real estate repayment peak has started
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Source: Use Trust
Trust leverage high
The leverage of Ping An Trust was quite high and reached 14x in 2012
and the Trust’s AuM was 1.3x of total Ping An Group net assets.
Cross-selling cannibalisation
We highlight that the cross-selling of financial products other than life
insurance now account for 70% of the total new business sales for Ping
An life agents in 2012. Sales of trust products were the highest,
accounting for 50% of total sales.
In the longer term, we think there is cannibalisation risk for its life
business: (1) agents can be drawn to easier sales which may lead to
lower life new business for Ping An; (2) hence business shifts from higher
margin life insurance to lower margin segments; (3) making it difficult to
increase total sales; and (4) Ping An lacks a long-term strategy in guiding
its life agents towards higher-margin products.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 23 May 2013
Bbg/RIC 2318 HK / 2318.HK Rating (prev. rating) O (O) Shares outstanding (mn) 7,916.14 Daily trad vol - 6m avg (mn) 24.1 Daily trad val - 6m avg (US$ mn) 204.8 Free float (%) 100.0 Major shareholders HSBC - 15.6%
Price (21 May 13 , HK$) 61.10 TP (prev. TP HK$) 83.00 (83.00) Est. pot. % chg. to TP 36 52-wk range (HK$) 71.0 - 53.4 Mkt cap (HK$/US$ bn) 436.9/ 56.3
Performance 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (%) 1.7 (7.6) 6.8 Relative (%) (3.4) (4.3) (9.7)
Year 12/11A 12/12A 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Life GWP (Rmb mn) 124,094 134,851 153,730 175,252 199,788 P&C GWP (Rmb mn) 83,708 99,089 118,907 139,715 160,673 Net profit (Rmb mn) 19,475 20,050 24,599 28,823 31,979 EPS (Rmb) 2.50 2.53 3.04 3.33 3.69 - Change from prev. EPS (%) n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 - Consensus EPS (Rmb) n.a. n.a. 3.60 4.16 4.69 EPS growth (%) 8.7 1.2 19.8 9.6 11.0 P/E (x) 19.3 19.1 15.9 14.5 13.1 NTA per share (Rmb) 12.3 15.4 20.7 22.6 24.7 EV per share (Rmb) 29.8 36.1 38.2 44.0 50.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.3 7.5 5.1 3.2 1.7 P/B (x) 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 ROE (%) 16.0 13.8 13.1 12.8 13.2 P&C combined ratio (%) 94.1 97.5 96.4 96.4 96.4
Note1:ORD/ADR=2.00.Note2:Ping An is a financial conglomerate group in China. It is the No. 2 market player in both life and non-life insurance market. It also has banking, securities and trust business..
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 21
Indonesia Telecom Sector ------------------------------------------------- Maintain OVERWEIGHT New report: Predatory pricing II—This time it's data Colin McCallum, CA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6514 / [email protected]
● Data price points in Indonesia have declined by 58.9-75.3% since last July. We believe this has reached ‘predatory’ pricing levels and that CDMA operators and GSM new entrants will never be able to generate ROIC over cost of capital. Click here for full report.
● However, even at these revised prices, ARPU uplift from data is 1.8-5.4x for subscribers consuming bundled plans with 250 MB-4 GB of data/month; enough of a data-driven uplift to allow the existing ‘big three’ GSM players to grow at 9.9% in FY13, and generate attractive ROIC in the medium term.
● PT Telkom offers double-digit FY13E earnings growth, a 6.1% free cash flow yield and a 4.2% dividend yield. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and Rp13,000 target price.
● However, Indosat and XL offer more potential upside. Indosat’s execution has clearly improved, and despite a 15.2% downward earnings revision on higher interest costs, our core EBITDA forecasts and target price are unchanged. We also believe that FY13 will prove to be the bottom for XL’s earnings, and 1Q13 earnings figure will be the bottom within FY13.
Figure 1: Indonesia telecoms sector: Comparative multiples Current Target Upside Price Price P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
(Rp) (Rp) (%) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
PT Telkom 11,900 13,000 9.2 15.6 14.6 7.0 6.6 Indosat 5,600 8,300 48.2 39.6 17.3 4.3 4.0 XL 5,150 7,500 45.6 17.6 15.2 6.0 5.4 NJA* Integrated 18.3 15.8 7.2 6.9 NJA* Wireless 15.4 13.7 6.5 6.0
*NJA: Non-Japan Asia. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
At these price points, there is only room for three players
In our 20 May report, ‘Predatory pricing II: This time it’s data,’ we show that data price points in Indonesia have declined by 58.9-75.3% since last July. We believe this has reached ‘predatory’ pricing levels and that CDMA operators and GSM new entrants will never be able to generate ROIC over cost of capital, particularly since ‘bundled’ plans of voice, data and SMS mean that high voice and SMS interconnect rates still confer scale disadvantages on smaller players. Further investment from these players would be irrational.
For the ‘Big three’ players, on the other hand, even at these revised price points, inclusion of data within bundles is resulting in a 1.8-5.4x ARPU uplift for subscribers consuming bundles of 250MB-4GB of data/month. This level of data-driven ARPU uplift is enough to raise the revenue trajectory of the ‘big three’ players—Telkomsel, Indosat and XL—to 9.9% for FY13.
It is also enough ARPU uplift to ensure that Indosat and XL, with 18.4% and 17.9% current revenue market share, can generate reasonable returns on capital in the medium term as their 3G network utilisation rises. Telkomsel, with 54.0% revenue market share, already generates a 34.8%, and rising, ROIC.
PT Telkom: Rising cash flow and dividend yield
Telkomsel is monetising the smartphone ARPU uplift effectively and looks set to deliver double-digit revenue growth (10.4%) in FY13.
Scale advantages have also minimised the impact of the 3G investment phase, allowing relatively stable margins, double-digit FY13 earnings growth and FY13 ROIC of 34.8%. The growth trajectory of the fixed line division is also finally improving; we forecast 14.7% consolidated earnings growth in FY13. We expect 211 mn shares held in Treasury stock to be sold back to the market in August. While this also creates a small technical overhang (1.1% of shares in issue), a potential release of value from Telkom’s tower assets provides an offsetting positive catalyst.
Indosat: Strong core recovery, despite earnings drag
Improved execution resulted in 16.5% YoY revenue growth for Indosat in 1Q13 and four consecutive quarters of revenue market share gains. With 900 MHz 3G now being rolled, boosting data revenues, we forecast that Indosat can grow FY13 cellular revenues at 11.1%, faster than the overall market. Furthermore, the 900 MHz strategy should allow Indosat to avoid the severity of the capex and opex shock suffered by XL in its 1.9-2.1 GHz 3G rollout over the last two years. Accelerated depreciation and high interest costs, both as a result of legacy overspending in 1997-2008, are a material drag on headline earnings and we have cut our FY13E earnings figure by 15.2%. FY13 ROIC is also low at 3.8%, again a legacy issue. Crucially, headline earnings are on a sharp upward trajectory as accelerated depreciation rolls off, and ROIC is expected to reach 9.7% (close to WACC) by FY16. Indosat’s 900 MHz 3G investment is worth making.
XL offers 45.6% upside from current share price levels
XL’s revenue market share fell by 1.6 pp to 17.9% in 1Q13, from 19.5% in 2Q12, triggering sharp share price underperformance since September 2012. The catalysts for XL’s market share loss were improved execution at Indosat as well as some vulnerability to Hutch Indonesia’s (in our view unsustainable) promotional activity. XL’s profitability has also been badly squeezed by the impact of its aggressive 1.9-2.1 GHz 3G rollout on capex and opex (in particular, infrastructure expenses). The impact was so severe that we have cut our FY13 earnings forecast by 19.0%. On the other hand, we believe FY13 will prove to be the bottom for XL’s earnings and that the 1Q13 earnings figure will be the bottom within FY13. XL started to raise price points again in February 2013, capex has already peaked and opex growth will also therefore be slow. As XL emerges from its 3G investment j-curve, we expect ROIC to rise from 10.4% in FY13 to 14.8% in FY16: OUTPERFORM rating and Rp7,500 target price maintained.
Figure 2: Emerging market cellular operator tick-list PT Telkom Indosat XL
Low smartphone penetration Yes Yes Yes Tiered (not unlimited) dataplans Yes Yes Yes No handset subsidies Yes Yes Yes Cash flows paid as dividends Yes Yes Yes M&A acquisition risk Medium Low Low
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 20 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 22
Pakistan Market Strategy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: Elections 2013—market to rally on a comprehensive Nawaz victory Farhan Rizvi, CFA / Research Analyst / 65 6212 3036 / [email protected]
● PML-N led by ex-PM Nawaz Sharif has emerged as the single largest party in the General Elections (GE) 2013 with ~46% seats, better than ours and market expectation of 30-35%. Full report.
● Market is likely to cheer a clear mandate for the PML-N with a likely re-rating, and a 15-20% post-election rally is on the cards. Despite posting an 18% YTD return, the local bourse still trades at an attractive one-year forward P/E of 7.0x (20% historical discount).
● We expect banks, energy, cements, textiles and conglomerates to be major beneficiaries of the PML-N victory, given anticipated reforms and PML-N’s generally business-friendly policies. Our top picks are Engro, OGDC, Lucky, POL and Fatima, while Mansha Group stocks such as MCB, NML, DGKC and AICL are key political beneficiaries.
● The first major task for the new government would be to sign up a new US$5-6 bn IMF programme to stabilise reserves with Sharif already indicating his desire to move in this direction. Moreover, a clear mandate will provide PML-N additional leeway to implement much need energy and fiscal reforms which bodes well for the economy.
Figure 1: PML-N emerges with a strong mandate in GE 2013 Party Electoral seats Electoral seats (%)
2008 2013 2008 2013
PPP 91 33 33% 12% PML-N 69 125 25% 46% PTI NC 31 0% 11% PML-Q 41 1 15% 0% MQM 19 17 7% 6% PKMAP NC 9 0% 3% JUI (F) 6 10 2% 4% IND/Other/NR 46 46 17% 17% Total 272 272 100% 100%
Note: NR= No result six seats. Source: Election Commission, Geo TV (unofficial results)
Nawaz scores a comprehensive victory
PML-N led by ex-PM Nawaz Sharif has emerged as the single largest party with approx. 46% seats, better than ours and market expectations and is likely to form the government at the centre. It strengthened its grip in Punjab, though PTI and PPP shall form governments in KPK and Sindh, respectively.
Figure 2: PPP and PTI likely to form govt. in Sindh and KPK respectively Seats (%) Sindh KPK province
PPP 69 53% 2 2% PTI 34 34% MQM 23 18% JUI (F) 16 16% PML-N 1 1% 12 12% PML-F 7 5% 0% QWP 7 7% IND/Others 11 8% 28 28% Un. announced 19 15% 0 Total 130 100% 99 100%
Source: Geo TV (un-official results)
Market to cheer a strong mandate for PML-N
We expect the market to cheer a clear mandate for PML-N with a likely re-rerating, and a 15-20% post-election rally is likely. The market has historically performed well post-elections, with a 1M and 3M
average return of 8% and 13%, respectively, over the past four elections (1993, 97, 02, 08). Despite posting an 18% YTD return, the local bourse trades at an attractive one-year forward P/E of 7x (20% historical discount).
Figure 3: Forward P/E of 7.0x is 20% below historical average of 8.7x
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Average MSCI Pak 12 month forward PE
Average PE = 8.7x
Source: IBES, Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates
What sectors and stocks could be beneficiaries? We expect energy, banks, cements and conglomerates to be major beneficiaries of the PML-N victory. While anticipated reforms would boost energy stocks, Mr Sharif’s business-friendly and infrastructure-led approach bodes well for cements and banks. Our top picks are Engro, OGDC, POL, Lucky and Fatima, while Mansha group stocks such as MCB, NML, DGKC and AICL are key political beneficiaries.
Figure 4: Top picks Reuters Ticker Price T.P PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div. yield (%)
PKR PKR 13E 14E 13E 14E 13E
EGCH.KA 134 170 10.3 6.2 5.1 4.5 - OGDC.KA 205 250 7.8 6.6 4.5 3.9 4.3 PKOL.KA 488 505 8.5 6.8 4.7 3.7 10.6 FATF.KA 24 30.5 5.9 4.8 4.8 4.2 10.6 LUKC.KA 177 194 6.3 6.0 4.2 4.1 4.5
Source: Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates
IMF negotiations to resume, positive for the economy
One of the key challenges for the new government would be to secure a new US$5-6 bn IMF programme to stabilise forex reserves. Mr Sharif boasts an experienced economic team that will likely be headed by former finance minister Mr Ishaq Dar who has already indicated plans to approach the IMF with modalities likely to be finalised next month. A clear mandate will also assist PML-N in implementation of some much-needed energy and fiscal reforms which would be positive for the broader economy.
Extract from the Asian Daily, 13 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 23
Thailand Banks Sector ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New report: The right kind of growth Dan Fineman / Research Analyst / 662 614 6218 / [email protected] Thaniya Kevalee / Research Analyst / 662 614 6219 / [email protected]
● Today we have issued a new banks sector report. We believe that the mini-credit boom of the past three years is ending, but Thai banks are prepared for slower loan growth. Growth drivers are shifting from asset expansion to lower-risk non-interest income and cost controls.
● We expect Thai banks to post the fastest earnings growth this year and the next of any banks in the region. Longer term, higher dividend payout ratios could emerge as an additional driver for shares. Despite their rapid growth, Thai banks have the fourth-lowest P/Es in NJA.
● Some analysts and investors are expressing concerns over asset quality, but we think banks are prepared for a possible increase in NPLs. Banks have already raised guidance for credit costs to conservative levels, and loan loss reserves are the highest in NJA relative to total loans.
● We still rate KBANK as our favourite on its superior fee income growth. We rank BAY, followed by KTB and SCB, as the next best, with BBL still our least favourite big bank.
A more mature stage of credit cycle
We believe Thailand is entering a more mature stage of its credit cycle. Loan growth has exceeded nominal GDP by a sizeable margin for five straight years, but this year we foresee loan growth slowing and converging towards nominal GDP on a sustained basis. As the lowest-risk borrowers are already fully penetrated, new NPL formation likely has bottomed and could trend up moderately. Possible regulatory measures to cool property lending place a ceiling on how rapid credit can expand and are indicative of the credit cycle’s maturity.
Non-lending growth drivers in place
Luckily, Thai banks are ready for a shift in growth drivers. Just as loan growth is set to slow, fee income is re-accelerating. Partly, the renewed fee growth is coming from strong equity markets, but more seems the result of sustainable forces like effective cross-selling and high non-cash transaction services. At the same time, moderate operating expense growth is lowering cost-to-income ratios and
adding further to bottom-line growth. The result is that PPOP and earnings growth should exceed loan growth by a wide margin. In future years, dividends could emerge as an additional share price driver. With high ROEs and moderate risk asset growth, already-high Tier 1 ratios are set to rise sharply unless banks raise payouts. Our forecasts give Thai banks the best earnings and dividend growth in Asia this year and the next.
Ready for higher credit costs
We see a good chance that NPL formation will rise moderately, but banks are ready. They have already guided up credit costs to conservative levels. In several cases, banks plan to set aside more reserves as a percent of loans this year than in 2009, at the depth of the GFC. Even if new provisions do not keep pace with new NPLs, reserves are now high enough to cover any shortfall. Loan loss reserves as a percent of total loans are the highest in NJA. We believe that possible measures from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to cool the property market would have little actual impact on banks and are in any case already largely anticipated by the market.
Valuations still appealing
Bank valuations remain appealing. Thai banks have the fourth-lowest P/Es in the region after China, Korea and India, and the P/E relative to the broader market is in the low end of the historical range. Our target prices provide good upside for several banks but imply undemanding multiples. For most banks, our target prices rely primarily on outstanding earnings growth and assume a moderate P/E de-rating.
KBANK still our favourite
Our picks favour banks with low multiples generating a high share of bottom-line growth from non-lending sources. Despite its outperformance, KBANK remains our top pick with strength on both counts. On fee income, KBANK remains the clear sector leader. BAY faces a short-term overhang from the planned sale of GE’s stake, but on the numbers the stock is attractive. SCB and KTB look next best—the former on robust operations and the latter on valuations. BBL is our least favourite large bank due to a lack of catalysts and inferior growth. We have no Outperforms among the smaller banks.
Valuation metrics Rating Price TP Up/dn Div. yld ROE P/B (prev. (as of 13 May) Chg to TP Year EPS chg (%) EPS EPS grth (%) P/E (x) (%) (%) (x)
Company Ticker rating) Local Target (%) (%) T T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+1
BBL BBLf.BK O (O) 227.00 253.00 (3) 11 12/12 (5) (8) 17.8 19.8 3 11 12.8 11.5 3.2 11.9 1.5 KBANK KBANf.BK O (O) 220.00 265.00 1 20 12/12 (1) 0 17.8 22.2 21 25 12.3 9.9 2.5 21.3 2.4 SCB SCB.BK O (O) 188.50 217.00 4 15 12/12 1 2 14.7 17.9 25 21 12.8 10.5 3.4 21.8 2.6 KTB KTB.BK O (O) 24.70 30.50 (6) 23 12/12 (10) (6) 2.27 3.15 17 39 10.9 7.9 3.8 16.7 1.7 BAY BAY.BK O (O) 34.75 41.00 (5) 18 12/12 (4) (3) 3.05 3.60 27 18 11.4 9.7 3.2 15.5 1.7 TMB TMB.BK N (N) 2.82 2.85 2 1 12/12 5 2 0.16 0.22 341 33 17.3 13.1 2.3 12.7 2.1 TISCO TISCO.BK N (N) 53.00 59.00 0 11 12/12 0 0 6.05 6.04 19 0 8.8 8.8 4.7 22.6 1.8 TCAP TCAP.BK N (N) 48.25 51.00 6 6 12/12 18 8 7.38 4.90 72 (34) 6.5 9.8 3.2 20.5 1.2
Note: O = OUTPERFORM, N = NEUTRAL, U = UNDERPERFORM Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Extract from the Asian Daily, 15 May 2013
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 24
NJA equities events calendar Date Co./Analyst Location Market Sector
Analyst Marketing
May 21 - Jun 12 Shinichi Ichikawa Japan Japan Strategy
May 22 - May 24 Cusson Leung US Hong Kong Property
May 23 - May 24 Chate Benchavitvilai Hong Kong Philippines Telecoms
May 23 - May 29 Teddy Oetomo/Danny Goh Malaysia Indonesia Banks/Financials
May 24 Farhan Rizvi Hong Kong Pakistan Strategy
May 24 - May 29 Stephen Rich Europe Australia Real Estate/REIT
May 24 Danny Goh Europe Indonesia Banks/Financials
May 24 Larry Gandler Australia Australia Consumer
May 27 - May 30 Cusson Leung Hong Kong Hong Kong Property
May 27 - May 29 Dan Fineman Hong Kong Thailand Banks/Financials
May 27 - May 28 Teddy Oetomo / Danny Goh Singapore Indonesia Banks/Financials
May 27 - May 31 Satsuki Kawasaki US Japan Consumer
May 27 - May 31 Yu Yoshida Japan Japan Technology
May 28 - May 29 Chate Benchavitvilai Singapore Philippines Telecoms
May 28 - May 31 Stephen Hagger Europe Malaysia Strategy
May 29 - May 31 Dan Fineman Singapore Thailand Banks/Financials
May 29 - Jun 5 Stephen Rich US Australia Real Estate/REIT
May 29 - May 30 Davin Wu China China Transportation
May 30 Masahiro Akita Japan Japan Automobiles
Jun 3 - Jun 7 Sanjay Mookim US Regional Chemicals
Jun 3 - Jun 7 Arjan van Veen US Regional Insurance
Jun 4 Dan Fineman Malaysia Thailand Banks/Financials
Jun 5 - Jun 7 Dan Fineman Europe Regional Banks/Financials
Jun 10 - Jun 12 Amish Shah Singapore India Utilities
Jun 10 - Jun 14 Arnab Mitra Europe India Technology
Jun 10 - Jun 14 Jeremy Chen/Chung Hsu Europe Taiwan Banks/Financials
Jun 10 - Jun 14 Dan Fineman US Thailand Banks/Financials
Jun 10 - Jun 27 Masami Sawato Japan Japan Chemicals
Jun 13 - Jun 14 Amish Shah Hong Kong India Utilities
Jun 13 - Jun 18 Shunsuke Tsuchiya US Japan Consumer
Jun 17 - Jun 21 Vincent Chan Europe China Strategy
Jun 17 - Jun 19 Samantha Carleton Europe Australia Media
Jun 17 - Jun 21 Anantha Narayan US India Technology
Jun 19 - Jun 25 Shunsuke Tsuchiya Europe Japan Consumer
Jun 21 - Jun 28 Taketo Yamate US Japan Retailing
Jun 21 - Jun 28 Fumiyoshi Sakai Japan Japan Pharmaceuticals
Jun 24 - Jun 25 Karim Salamatian Hong Kong Regional Consumer
Jun 24 - Jun 25 Colin McCallum Europe Regional Telecoms
Jun 24 Dan Fineman Japan Thailand Strategy
Jun 24 - Jul 5 Masahiro Mochizuki Japan Japan Real Estate/REIT
Jun 26 - Jun 27 Karim Salamatian Singapore Regional Consumer
Jun 26 - Jun 28 Colin McCallum US Regional Telecoms
Jul 1 - Jul 5 Karim Salamatian Europe Regional Consumer
Jul 1 - Jul 5 Masahiro Akita; Issei Takahashi Europe Japan Automobiles
Jul 8 - Jul 15 Robert Prior/Sanitarn Sathirathai US Regional Economics
Jul 10 - Jul 18 Jack Yeung Europe China Automobiles
Jul 15 - Jul 19 Kenny Lau Europe Hong Kong Small Caps
Jul 15 - Jul 19 Karim Salamatian US Regional Consumer
23 May 2013
Jump-Start 25
Date Co./Analyst Location Market Sector
Non-Deal RoadShow
May 20 - May 24 Incitec Pivot US Australia Chemicals
May 23 - May 24 Dwango (3715) Japan Japan Diversified Commercial Service
May 24 Alpine Electronics, Inc. Japan Japan Technology
May 24 V Technology (7717) Japan Japan Industrials
May 28 Telstra Singapore Australia Telecoms
May 28 - May 30 Konami (conf call) US Japan Gaming
May 28 INPEX (1605) Japan Japan Oil & Gas
May 28 Isuzu Motors Japan Japan Automobiles
May 28 Net One Systems (7518) Japan Japan Technology
May 28 ING Vysya Bank India India Banks/Financials
May 29 - May 30 Telstra Hong Kong Australia Telecoms
May 29 - May 31 Starhill Global Real Estate Singapore Malaysia Property
May 29 Arrium US Australia Metals & Mining
May 29 - May 30 Kiwi Income Property Trust Australia Australia Real Estate/REIT
May 29 IJM Land Berhad Malaysia Malaysia Property/REIT
May 30 - May 31 Dangdang.com US China Internet
May 30 - May 31 Aurora Oil & Gas Australia Australia Oil & Gas
May 30 Nihon Michelin Tire Japan Japan Automobiles
May 30 Yamada Denki (9831) Japan Japan Electric compornents
May 30 Ship Healthcare Holdings (3360) Japan Japan Pharmaceuticals
May 31 Konami (conf call) Europe Japan Gaming
May 31 Nippon Shokubai (4114) Japan Japan Chemicals
May 31 Alpine Electronics (6816) Japan Japan Technology
May 31 Telstra Japan Australia Telecoms
Jun 3 - Jun 5 Starhill Global REIT Hong Kong Malaysia Property
Jun 3 Chiyoda (6366) Japan Japan Utilities
Jun 3 Starhill Global REIT Malaysia Indonesia Property/REIT
Jun 4 Denki Kagaku Kogyo (4061) Japan Japan Chemicals
Jun 4 Komatsu Japan Japan Capital Goods
Jun 4 KPJ Healtchare Malaysia Malaysia Pharmaceuticals
Jun 5 Corona Corporation Japan Japan Industrials
Jun 6 Hamakyorex (9037) Japan Japan Leasing & Logistics
Jun 7 The Pack (3950) Japan Japan Consumer
Jun 10 - Jun 11 Action Semiconductor US China Technology
Jun 10 Suzuki Motor Corp. Japan Japan Automobiles
Jun 11 Tokyu Land Japan Japan Real Estate/REIT
Jun 11 Yahoo Japan Japan Japan Internet
Jun 12 NSK Japan Japan Industrials
Jun 13 Reserve Bank of India Europe India Banks/Financials
Jun 17 - Jun 21 China Life Taiwan Europe Taiwan Insurance
Jun 17 - Jun 21 Chailease Holding Europe Taiwan Banks/Financials
Jun 17 - Jun 20 HDFC Bank US India Banks/Financials
Jun 25 Starhill Global REIT Europe Malaysia Property
Jun 25 - Jun 27 Chemical Sector Corporate Day (Chemical companies) Japan Japan Chemicals
Jun 27 SUMCO Japan Japan Chemicals
Jun 28 Nippon Kayaku Japan Japan Chemicals
Jul 8 - Jul 12 Skyworth Digital Europe China Small Caps
Jul 10 - Jul 15 CP Foods US Thailand Consumer
Please contact your Credit Suisse sales representatives if you have any queries.
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Credit Suisse Asian results calendar Forthcoming results (21 May to 5 Jun 2013) (stocks with mkt cap > US$500 mn)
Net CS What we
Price profit vs EPS expect
Date of (local$) (local$ mn) Consensus (local$) in this
Results* Period Company Ctry Bberg 20 May Target Rating Consensus CS (%) Consensus CS results
May-28 (E) 2013Q1 Focus Media CN FMCN US US$27.37 R R US$390 R - US$2.90 R
May-28 (E) 2013Q1 Perfect World CN PWRD US US$12.59 US$17.10 N 456 710 56 9.41 13.55
May-30 (E) 2013Q1 GOME CN 493 HK HK$0.81 HK$0.80 U 377 392 4 0.03 0.02
May-30 2013Q1 Shandong Weigao CN 1066 HK HK$7.99 HK$6.70 U 1,217 1,209 (1) 0.27 0.27
May-23 2013 Lenovo HK 992 HK 7.17 10.00 O US$618 US$609 (2) US$0.06 US$0.06
Jun-05 2013 Link REIT HK 823 HK 45.45 36.64 U 3,324 3,289 (1) 1.46 1.44
May-22 (E) 2013Q1 Japfa Comfeed ID JPFA IJ 2,075 2,160 O 1,302,272 1,421,205 9 127.09 135.89
May-22 (E) 2013Q1 Jasa Marga ID JSMR IJ 6,900 6,750 O 1,738,579 1,537,761 (12) 259.47 226.14 In line
May-22 (E) 2013Q1 Sarana Menara Nusantra ID TOWR IJ 25,450 27,000 N 809,173 824,944 2 793.13 808.54 In line
May-21 2013 Tech Mahindra IN TECHM IN 922.00 1,085 N 12,001 13,848 15 92.65 104.15
May-22 2013 L&T IN LT IN 1,619 1,432 N 51,503 53,418 4 83.72 86.73
May-22 2013 ZEE IN Z IN 245.60 242.00 O 7,165 7,383 3 7.50 7.70
May-23 2013 Dish TV IN DITV IN 68.55 84.00 O (1,126) (772) n.m (1.05) (0.73)
May-23 2013 JSW Steel IN JSTL IN 700.85 400.00 U 15,432 8,636 (44) 69.33 38.71
May-23 2013 SBI IN SBIN IN 2,413 2,237 N 149,319 144,450 (3) 218.34 210.97
May-23 2013 Tata Steel IN TATA IN 315.30 300.00 U 6,675 8,427 26 6.43 8.57
May-24 (E) 2013 Cipla IN CIPLA IN 417.40 475.00 O 15,580 16,018 3 19.43 19.95
May-24 2013 Crompton IN CRG IN 102.10 92.00 U 1,849 2,318 25 3.07 3.61
May-24 (E) 2013 Hathway Cable IN HATH IN 285.75 237.00 U (324) (349) n.m (2.27) (2.44)
May-24 2013 Oil India IN OINL IN 593.25 495.00 N 34,993 32,193 (8) 58.38 53.55
May-27 2013 GSPL IN GUJS IN 62.15 103.00 O 4,809 4,955 3 8.55 8.81
May-27 2013 McLeod Russel IN MCLR IN 322.25 400.00 O 3,004 3,058 2 27.41 27.94
May-28 2013 Colgate IN CLGT IN 1,425 1,232 U 5,224 5,232 0 38.46 38.48
May-28 (E) 2013 DLF IN DLFU IN 248.05 167.00 U 10,438 16,509 58 5.98 9.73
May-28 2013 GAIL IN GAIL IN 336.30 470.00 O 40,929 44,972 10 32.35 35.45
May-28 2013 GMDC IN GMDC IN 145.65 230.00 O 6,198 6,750 9 19.29 21.23
May-28 2013 Hindalco IN HNDL IN 109.95 135.00 O 27,482 32,185 17 14.43 16.81
May-28 2013 HPCL IN HPCL IN 305.00 261.00 U 6,881 5,549 (19) 19.81 16.39
May-28 2013 NHPC IN NHPC IN 20.55 23.00 O 23,438 23,473 0 1.90 1.91 In line
May-28 2013 Sun Pharma IN SUNP IN 966.15 900.00 O 32,398 34,232 6 31.20 33.05
May-29 2013 Bharat Petroleum IN BPCL IN 409.55 283.00 U 17,522 5,062 (71) 24.78 7.00
May-29 (E) 2013 Max IN MAX IN 213.15 251.00 O 1,857 354 (81) 7.02 1.34
May-29 2013 MCX IN MCX IN 943.50 1,600 O 2,939 2,982 1 57.95 58.74
May-29 2013 ONGC IN ONGC IN 332.90 239.00 U 251,237 213,392 (15) 29.51 24.94
May-29 2013 Tata Motors IN TTMT IN 302.40 365.00 O 98,968 90,488 (9) 30.30 28.37
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Forthcoming results (21 May to 5 Jun 2013) (stocks with mkt cap > US$500 mn) (continued)
Net CS What we
Price profit vs EPS expect
Date of (local$) (local$ mn) Consensus (local$) in this
Results* Period Company Ctry Bberg 20 May Target Rating Consensus CS (%) Consensus CS results
May-30 (E) 2013 Cadila IN CDH IN 807.70 800.00 N 5,996 6,008 0 29.23 29.34
May-30 2013 Indian Oil IN IOCL IN 303.30 275.00 N 61,819 75,086 21 25.23 30.93
May-30 2013 M & M IN MM IN 1,004 882.00 N 32,798 31,561 (4) 53.64 51.41
May-30 2013 SAIL IN SAIL IN 62.55 50.00 U 29,431 27,622 (6) 7.25 6.69
May-30 2013 Tata Power IN TPWR IN 93.55 83.00 U 11,178 10,232 (8) 4.81 4.31
May-30 2013 Torrent IN TRP IN 722.35 815.00 O 4,066 4,001 (2) 48.06 47.28
May-22 2013Q1 AirAsia MY AIRA MK 3.25 3.40 O 888 876 (1) 0.32 0.32
May-22 2013Q1 Axiata MY AXIATA MK 6.92 8.00 O 2,862 2,659 (7) 0.34 0.31
May-22 (E) 2013Q1 MAS MY MAS MK 0.40 0.35 U (68) 25 n.m (0.01) 0.00
May-22 (E) 2013Q3 YTL Corp MY YTL MK 1.71 1.80 N 1,163 1,038 (11) 0.11 0.10
May-22 (E) 2013Q3 YTL Power MY YTLP MK 1.52 1.40 U 1,176 1,317 12 0.16 0.16
May-23 2013Q1 IHH MY IHH MK 3.90 3.30 N 691 622 (10) 0.09 0.08
May-23 (E) 2013Q2 KLK MY KLK MK 21.72 20.00 N 1,087 877 (19) 1.03 0.82
May-23 @ 12:30 2013Q1 Maybank MY MAY MK 10.08 10.50 O 6,202 6,561 6 0.72 0.74
May-23 (E) 2013Q1 MISC MY MISC MK 4.43 4.60 U 1,182 1,642 39 0.26 0.37
May-23 (E) 2013Q1 UEM Land MY ULHB MK 3.51 4.20 O 526 579 10 0.12 0.13
May-28 (E) 2013Q1 IGB REIT MY IGBREIT MK 1.36 1.30 U 209 199 (5) 0.06 0.06
May-28 @ 16:45 2013 IJM Corp MY IJM MK 5.79 6.80 O 487 495 2 0.35 0.35
May-28 2013 IJM Land MY IJMLD MK 3.12 3.40 O 231 209 (10) 0.16 0.14
May-28 (E) 2013Q1 PCG MY PCHEM MK 6.53 6.30 N 3,806 3,696 (3) 0.47 0.46
May-28 (E) 2013Q1 RHB Capital MY RHBC MK 8.81 10.05 O 1,992 2,092 5 0.80 0.82
May-29 (E) 2013Q1 GENP MY GENP MK 8.84 9.38 O 347 306 (12) 0.47 0.40
May-29 (E) 2013Q1 TM MY T MK 5.46 4.40 U 803 752 (6) 0.23 0.21 In line
May-30 (E) 2013Q1 FGV MY FGV MK 4.50 4.00 U 747 696 (7) 0.21 0.19
May-30 (E) 2013Q1 Genting Bhd MY GENT MK 10.72 R R 2,380 R - 0.64 R In line
May-30 (E) 2013Q1 Genting Malaysia MY GENM MK 3.90 R R 1,688 R - 0.29 R In line
May-30 (E) 2013Q1 KPJ MY KPJ MK 6.42 6.95 O 160 176 10 0.25 0.28
May-30 (E) 2013Q3 Sime Darby MY SIME MK 9.48 10.90 O 3,460 3,885 12 0.58 0.65
May-23 2013 GLP SG GLP SP 2.98 3.00 O US$389 US$351 (10) US$0.08 US$0.07 In line
May-29 2013 Biosensors SG BIG SP 1.24 1.96 O US$118 US$127 8 US$0.07 US$0.07
Notes:
Credit Suisse and consensus net profits and EPS are based on full year forecasts.
This calendar excludes stocks with market cap less than US$500 mn
The date of release for stocks listed in US are based on HK date and time, all other stocks are based on the date & time of the listed exchange
* Confirmed dates but are subject to change, (E) = estimated date
Positive surprise, Negative surprise,Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates.
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Results reported 13 May - 20 May 2013 (stocks with Mkt cap > USD3bn)
%Chg in CS %Chg in
Consensus Consensus Cons. EPS CS CS EPS
Date of
Price ($) % upside / Reported YoY QoQ EPS EPS EPS post pre- EPS post
Results Period Company Ctry Sector Bberg Rating Ccy 20 May Target downside Ccy EPS (%) (%) pre-results 20 May results results 20 May results
May-15 2013Q1 Tencent CN Technology 700 HK O HKD 309.40 301.00 (2.7) CNY Q1 2.20 36 17 8.85 8.80 (0.6) 8.41 8.41 0.0
May-16 2013Q1 NetEase CN Technology NTES US O USD 62.91 70.00 11.3 CNY Q1 8.22 14 7 31.23 32.17 3.0 31.46 31.46 0.0
May-16 2013Q1 Sino Biopharm CN Healthcare 1177 HK N HKD 5.08 4.90 (3.5) HKD Q1 0.05 30 0 0.22 0.22 0.9 0.20 0.21 4.6
May-17 2013Q1 Sina CN Technology SINA US O USD 61.56 75.00 21.8 USD Q1 (0.20) n.m n.m 0.69 0.77 11.9 0.32 0.32 0.0
May-14 2013Q1 Rusal HK Metals & Mining 486 HK N HKD 3.90 4.80 23.1 USD Q1 n.a n.a n.a 0.04 0.04 (11.6) 0.01 0.01 0.0
May-14 2013Q1 Yue Yuen HK Small Cap Companies 551 HK U HKD 22.00 15.80 (28.2) USD Q1 0.04 (61) (21) 0.31 0.26 (15.4) 0.28 0.19 (34.0)
May-15 2013Q1 Galaxy HK Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 27 HK O HKD 40.00 42.60 6.5 HKD Q1 n.a n.a n.a 2.07 2.13 2.7 2.09 2.16 3.3
May-15 2013 VTech HK Small Cap Companies 303 HK O HKD 118.00 114.00 (3.4) USD FY n.a n.a - 0.87 0.87 0.7 0.81 0.85 4.6
May-13 2013Q1 ITM ID Metals & Mining ITMG IJ N IDR 34,100 36,000 5.6 USD Q1 0.06 (45) 4 0.29 0.28 (2.1) 0.27 0.27 0.0
May-13 2013 BOB IN Banks BOB IN O INR 737.15 873.00 18.4 INR Q4 24.99 (35) 2 128.44 123.94 (3.5) 129.44 129.44 0.0
May-13 2013 BOI IN Banks BOI IN N INR 321.80 367.00 14.0 INR Q4 13.04 (25) (7) 59.83 57.22 (4.4) 64.94 64.94 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 Nestle IN Consumer Staples NEST IN U INR 5,104 4,670 (8.5) INR Q1 28.95 1 0 129.79 128.35 (1.1) 124.25 124.59 0.3
May-13 2013 RPL IN Utilities RPWR IN U INR 80.65 87.00 7.9 INR Q4 0.95 14 0 3.74 3.75 0.2 3.68 3.68 0.0
May-14 2013 Dr. Reddy's IN Healthcare DRRD IN O INR 2,048 2,180 6.4 INR Q4 33.62 66 57 106.58 110.06 3.3 112.97 112.97 0.0
May-15 2013 United Spirits IN Consumer Staples UNSP IN O INR 2,391 2,550 6.6 INR Q4 n.a n.a n.a 50.91 48.88 (4.0) 50.24 43.39 (13.6)
May-16 2013 Bajaj Auto IN Automobiles & Components BJAUT IN O INR 1,865 2,126 14.0 INR Q4 26.50 (1) (6) 127.58 124.37 (2.5) 126.52 122.38 (3.3)
May-17 2013 ITC IN Consumer Staples ITC IN O INR 334.65 360.00 7.6 INR Q4 2.44 18 (7) 11.12 11.12 0.0 11.23 11.22 (0.1)
May-17 2013 Sun TV IN Media SUNTV IN O INR 423.25 488.00 15.3 INR Q4 n.a n.a n.a 21.38 21.22 (0.7) 21.35 21.27 (0.4)
May-20 2013 Adani Enterprises IN Conglomerates ADE IN U INR 243.00 205.00 (15.6) INR Q4 4.31 53 14 25.65 25.36 (1.1) 24.89 24.72 (0.7)
May-20 2013 Coal India IN Metals & Mining COAL IN O INR 300.75 420.00 39.7 INR Q4 7.12 12 2 28.59 28.58 (0.0) 28.50 28.50 0.0
May-14 2013Q1 KOGAS KR Utilities 036460 KS N KRW 64,300 77,000 19.8 KRW Q1 3,882.00 (32) 254 5,825.95 4,875.09 (16.3) 5,856.72 4,060.51 (30.7)
May-15 2013Q1 DSME KR Capital Goods 042660 KS N KRW 25,750 23,000 (10.7) KRW Q1 254.00 (45) n.m 2,318.03 1,762.00 (24.0) 2,283.37 1,758.21 (23.0)
May-21 2013Q1 BAB MY Energy BAB MK N MYR 3.96 3.80 (4.0) MYR Q1 0.04 21 (1) 0.19 0.19 0.0 0.19 0.19 0.0
May-21 2013Q1 CIMB MY Banks CIMB MK O MYR 8.43 9.90 17.4 MYR Q1 0.19 38 28 0.64 0.63 (0.2) 0.65 0.65 0.0
May-21 2013Q3 IOI Corp MY Consumer Staples IOI MK U MYR 5.29 4.60 (13.0) MYR Q3 0.09 3 7 0.26 0.26 (0.4) 0.24 0.24 0.0
May-14 2013Q2 Universal Robina PH Consumer Staples URC PM O PHP 128.00 141.00 10.2 PHP Q2 1.43 47 38 3.87 3.91 0.9 3.97 4.16 4.9
May-15 2013Q1 Alliance Global PH Conglomerates AGI PM R PHP 25.65 R n.a PHP Q1 0.35 21 (28) 1.31 1.31 0.2 1.17 R n.a
May-15 2013Q1 Ayala Corp PH Conglomerates AC PM N PHP 675.00 409.00 (39.4) PHP Q1 7.37 27 145 23.49 23.49 0.0 27.33 27.33 0.0
May-16 2013Q1 Bloomberry PH Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure BLOOM PM O PHP 12.90 17.50 35.7 PHP Q1 (0.10) n.m n.m 0.31 0.31 0.0 0.44 0.44 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 CDL SG Real Estate CIT SP O SGD 11.13 13.60 22.2 SGD Q1 0.15 (12) (43) 0.72 0.71 (1.0) 0.66 0.66 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 GGR SG Consumer Staples GGR SP O SGD 0.58 0.80 37.9 USD Q1 0.01 (34) 110 0.04 0.04 (2.6) 0.04 0.04 0.0
May-14 2013Q1 ComfortDelGro SG Transportation CD SP N SGD 2.09 1.85 (11.5) SGD Q1 0.03 7 (0) 0.12 0.12 0.0 0.12 0.12 4.3
May-14 2013Q1 Noble SG Capital Goods NOBL SP O SGD 1.08 1.70 57.4 USD Q1 0.01 (70) (62) 0.10 0.09 (11.0) 0.12 0.12 0.0
May-15 2013Q3 Olam SG Consumer Staples OLAM SP R SGD 1.82 R n.a SGD Q3 0.04 9 (31) 0.14 0.14 0.7 0.17 R n.a
May-15 2013 SingTel SG Telecommunication Services ST SP O SGD 4.07 4.25 4.4 SGD Q4 0.05 (33) 5 0.24 0.24 (0.4) 0.24 0.24 2.4
May-16 2013 SIA SG Transportation SIA SP N SGD 10.85 12.60 16.1 SGD Q4 0.06 n.m (52) 0.63 0.59 (6.5) 0.69 0.69 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 CPF TH Consumer Staples CPF TB O THB 31.25 38.00 21.6 THB Q1 0.14 (92) 338 2.06 1.91 (7.2) 2.57 2.19 (14.6)
May-13 2013Q1 LH TH Real Estate LH TB O THB 13.20 13.10 (0.8) THB Q1 0.14 (7) (7) 0.61 0.61 0.7 0.65 0.65 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 MINT TH Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure MINT TB O THB 27.00 29.00 7.4 THB Q1 0.38 21 17 1.03 1.02 (0.3) 1.07 1.03 (3.7)
May-13 2013Q1 Shin Corp TH Telecommunication Services INTUCH TB O THB 95.75 105.00 9.7 THB Q1 1.26 15 21 4.89 4.93 0.8 4.62 4.62 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 True Corp TH Telecommunication Services TRUE TB U THB 10.40 2.86 (72.5) THB Q1 (0.08) n.m n.m (0.27) (0.28) n.m (0.14) (0.14) n.m
May-14 2013Q1 IVL TH Consumer Durables & Apparel IVL TB N THB 23.70 24.00 1.3 THB Q1 0.10 (55) 270 1.58 1.47 (6.9) 1.25 1.25 0.0
May-15 2013Q1 BGH TH Healthcare BGH TB O THB 174.50 172.00 (1.4) THB Q1 1.26 (39) 38 4.70 4.79 1.8 4.85 4.85 0.0
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Results reported 13 May - 20 May 2013 (stocks with Mkt cap > USD3bn) (continued)
%Chg in CS %Chg in
Consensus Consensus Cons. EPS CS CS EPS
Date of
Price ($) % upside / Reported YoY QoQ EPS EPS EPS post pre- EPS post
Results Period Company Ctry Sector Bberg Rating Ccy 20 May Target downside Ccy EPS (%) (%) pre-results 20 May results results 20 May results
May-13 2013Q1 CSR TW Automobiles & Components 2105 TT O TWD 93.00 105.00 12.9 TWD Q1 1.51 46 (14) 6.55 6.51 (0.6) 6.94 6.94 0.0
May-13 2013Q1 Uni-President TW Consumer Staples 1216 TT N TWD 60.40 54.00 (10.6) TWD Q1 0.75 25 43 2.63 2.64 0.4 2.69 2.80 4.1
May-14 2013Q1 CSC TW Metals & Mining 2002 TT U TWD 26.05 22.40 (14.0) TWD Q1 0.25 n.m 87 0.80 0.84 5.0 0.81 0.81 0.0
May-14 2013Q1 Hon Hai TW Technology 2317 TT N TWD 77.10 74.00 (4.0) TWD Q1 1.38 12 (56) 8.45 7.99 (5.4) 7.93 7.26 (8.5)
May-14 2013Q1 NYPC TW Chemicals 1303 TT N TWD 64.00 65.90 3.0 TWD Q1 0.90 543 439 2.62 2.79 6.5 2.15 3.60 67.6
May-14 2013Q1 PCSC TW Retailing 2912 TT N TWD 191.00 156.00 (18.3) TWD Q1 1.94 20 69 7.00 7.11 1.6 7.13 7.13 0.0
May-14 2013Q1 Quanta TW Technology 2382 TT N TWD 65.30 63.00 (3.5) TWD Q1 1.16 (13) (19) 5.94 5.63 (5.2) 5.74 5.43 (5.4)
May-15 2013Q1 Asia Cement TW Building Materials & Construction 1102 TT N TWD 37.75 34.10 (9.7) TWD Q1 0.40 (12) (0) 2.33 2.29 (1.4) 2.42 2.42 0.0
May-15 2013Q1 FENC TW Consumer Durables & Apparel 1402 TT N TWD 32.60 36.89 13.2 TWD Q1 0.37 (19) 37 1.73 1.73 0.0 2.04 2.04 0.0
May-15 2013Q1 FTC TW Technology 2354 TT N TWD 80.40 87.00 8.2 TWD Q1 1.73 (12) (39) 7.20 6.95 (3.4) 7.60 7.22 (4.9)
May-15 2013Q1 Taiwan Cement TW Building Materials & Construction 1101 TT O TWD 39.25 40.00 1.9 TWD Q1 0.38 (10) (19) 2.50 2.50 0.0 2.50 2.50 0.0
Source: Bloomberg, IBES, Credit Suisse estimates.
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EPS revisions - current vs start of reporting season
CS EPS revisions (%) Consensus EPS revisions (%) Current CS EPS/ Consensus EPS (%)
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
China 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 99 97
Hong Kong -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99 104
India -0.6 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9 99 99
Indonesia -2.1 -2.0 -1.7 -2.4 100 100
Korea 2.9 7.7 2.8 5.3 105 105
Malaysia -5.7 -4.9 -6.5 -5.7 100 101
Philippines 0.0 0.6 0.2 -19.7 101 107
Pakistan 0.0 -0.1 0.7 2.5 102 104
Singapore 0.8 1.3 -1.3 -1.2 101 103
Taiwan 0.1 -1.8 1.8 0.7 101 103
Thailand -0.9 -1.3 -2.7 -2.1 100 100
Asia X Japan -0.1 0.8 -0.4 0.0 100 100
Automobiles & Components 0.5 7.2 -2.9 -1.9 111 114
Banks -0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 99 99
Building Materials & Construction -1.0 -0.3 -1.8 -2.2 96 91
Capital Goods -11.1 -4.0 -12.9 -7.4 95 94
Chemicals -1.9 -4.1 -8.0 -3.1 105 113
Conglomerates -1.8 -1.5 0.5 -1.1 102 109
Consumer Durables & Apparel -1.7 -3.1 -3.3 -2.8 101 103
Consumer Staples -2.4 -3.0 -10.9 -11.1 99 98
Diversified Financials 10.5 10.7 4.8 5.8 102 99
Energy -3.9 -4.0 -1.4 -4.1 101 101
Global Services 0.0 0.0 8.0 -0.5 103 101
Healthcare 5.5 5.9 4.8 5.3 98 96
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 0.1 0.3 -2.1 1.2 104 110
Insurance -2.1 -2.3 -0.4 -0.7 107 106
Media -10.8 -12.7 -11.6 -10.8 92 91
Metals & Mining -10.3 -9.9 -7.2 -7.8 94 101
Paper & Forest Products -0.0 -0.0 -5.5 -0.8 95 92
Real Estate -0.1 -0.0 -0.4 0.2 101 100
Retailing -4.9 -0.6 -3.8 -2.6 93 99
Small Cap Companies -9.6 -9.8 -7.3 -4.6 89 84
Technology 1.8 1.9 4.4 4.2 102 102
Telecommunication Services 0.3 0.3 -0.8 -1.0 100 105
Transportation -7.0 -2.1 -12.8 -8.6 104 107
Utilities -0.4 2.3 -0.6 -0.1 98 98
Source: Credit Suisse estimates, IBES
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Credit Suisse Valuation Summary (by country)
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Summary—valuation summary Market cap FYE CS /con. Dvd EV/ EV/ Net debt/
COUNTRY (US$ bn) Actual EPS growth (%) P/E (x) EPS (%) Yld (%) ROE (%) P/B (x) Sales(x) EBITDA (x) equity (%) Absolute performance (%)
T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+2 T+1 T+1 T+1 T+2 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD
Australia 1,477 Jun-12 (7) 9 9 15.0 16.2 14.8 13.6 98 95 3.9 13.1 13.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 9.0 38 37 (0) (1) 4 25 11 China 3,041 Dec-12 11 8 6 10.1 9.1 8.4 7.9 99 97 3.6 15.8 15.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 6.1 33 30 (0) 0 4 15 (2) Hong Kong 1,217 Dec-12 5 17 9 15.0 14.4 12.3 11.7 100 104 3.2 9.2 10.1 1.3 1.2 2.2 10.8 18 14 (1) 1 5 22 3
India 884 Dec-12 14 16 17 16.1 14.2 12.2 11.5 99 99 1.9 16.2 16.7 2.2 1.9 1.3 8.5 39 34 0 (0) 5 26 4 Indonesia 335 Dec-12 10 16 17 18.2 16.6 14.3 12.2 100 100 2.3 22.5 22.6 3.5 3.0 2.4 9.7 18 13 1 3 4 30 21 Japan 2,578 Mar-12 49 70 11 42.8 28.7 16.8 15.1 100 105 1.5 6.1 9.8 1.7 1.6 1.0 9.0 29 24 0 2 11 74 48
Korea 716 Dec-12 32 17 7 11.6 8.7 7.5 6.6 105 105 1.3 12.5 13.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 5.5 34 25 1 1 4 9 (0) Malaysia 327 Dec-12 4 12 8 17.4 16.7 14.9 14.4 100 101 3.1 13.2 13.7 2.1 1.9 2.4 9.8 35 31 (0) 0 5 15 6 Pakistan 24 Dec-12 13 17 13 8.9 7.9 6.7 5.9 102 104 6.0 27.8 27.6 2.0 1.7 2.1 4.4 2 (9) 1 4 15 51 26
Philippines 144 Dec-12 15 18 12 23.1 20.1 18.2 14.6 101 107 1.9 14.9 18.0 2.9 3.1 2.5 11.4 35 32 1 (0) 4 49 27 Singapore 380 Dec-12 4 12 11 16.2 15.4 13.8 12.7 102 103 3.5 9.8 10.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 11.9 33 31 1 1 5 23 9 Taiwan 563 Dec-12 41 15 9 22.1 15.7 13.6 12.6 101 103 2.7 12.3 13.1 1.9 1.7 0.9 8.6 9 3 0 1 5 15 9
Thailand 335 Dec-12 14 14 10 17.0 15.0 13.2 11.8 100 100 3.2 18.9 19.4 2.7 2.4 1.3 9.2 49 41 0 1 6 45 18
SECTOR - NJA Automobiles & Components 257 Dec-12 14 14 5 9.8 8.7 7.6 6.6 112 114 1.4 20.2 20.0 1.7 1.4 0.8 6.7 20 11 (0) 1 7 10 (1) Banks 1,927 Dec-12 4 6 5 8.5 8.3 7.8 7.1 97 95 4.3 15.8 15.2 1.2 1.1 na na na na (1) 0 6 32 6
Building Materials & Construction 118 Dec-12 17 8 9 16.8 14.5 13.3 11.7 97 92 2.1 15.7 15.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 9.2 78 70 (1) (0) (2) 30 1 Capital Goods 188 Dec-12 (1) 18 12 13.7 14.0 11.8 10.1 96 95 2.0 9.7 10.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 9.1 31 26 0 2 9 1 (8) Chemicals 112 Dec-12 49 24 2 21.1 14.4 11.5 12.3 105 112 2.0 12.3 13.9 1.7 1.5 1.1 8.9 18 14 1 1 9 2 (4)
Conglomerates 305 Dec-12 6 23 9 15.5 14.7 11.8 10.9 102 109 2.1 7.5 8.6 1.1 1.0 1.9 9.4 25 21 0 1 5 35 10 Consumer Durables & Apparel 88 Dec-12 26 23 20 20.3 16.2 13.1 12.2 102 105 2.6 18.4 21.2 2.8 2.6 1.5 11.4 7 (7) 1 2 2 24 (4) Consumer Staples 450 Dec-12 11 13 14 21.5 19.6 17.3 13.9 100 99 2.5 18.6 19.1 3.5 3.2 1.9 12.8 17 12 (0) 2 6 13 5
Diversified Financials 181 Dec-12 14 8 5 12.6 11.2 10.3 8.9 103 100 2.2 14.2 14.0 1.5 1.4 na na na na (1) 2 7 25 0 Energy 735 Dec-12 17 4 (10) 11.0 9.5 9.0 9.7 102 102 3.7 14.6 14.0 1.3 1.2 0.6 5.3 36 33 (1) (1) 3 9 (6) Global Services 4 Dec-12 24 30 26 22.9 18.4 14.1 11.2 103 101 1.7 21.6 23.5 3.6 3.0 2.0 11.2 (90) (101) 3 8 9 (22) 3
Healthcare 115 Dec-12 11 12 18 26.3 23.9 21.1 18.1 99 97 1.0 14.9 15.1 3.4 3.1 1.6 13.9 (12) (14) (1) 0 4 38 19 Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 179 Dec-12 21 25 18 22.2 18.5 14.8 12.5 105 110 2.7 22.1 23.7 3.9 3.3 2.8 11.3 (12) (17) (1) 1 10 42 20 Insurance 332 Dec-12 45 13 15 19.9 13.9 12.2 10.5 107 107 1.7 13.3 13.7 1.8 1.6 na na na na (1) 2 3 (8) (2)
Media 44 Dec-12 (17) 14 18 20.4 23.4 19.7 15.8 93 91 2.8 22.3 23.7 5.2 4.6 3.9 13.5 (6) (7) (1) (1) 5 48 11 Metals & Mining 333 Dec-12 1 19 19 11.9 11.9 9.9 8.7 95 102 2.8 9.8 11.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 6.9 37 33 (0) 1 1 2 (18) Paper & Forest Products 8 Dec-12 24 26 19 15.9 12.8 10.2 7.3 95 92 2.1 8.3 9.7 1.0 1.0 1.6 8.9 69 64 1 2 (11) 36 (3)
Real Estate 504 Dec-12 14 13 10 14.3 12.7 11.1 9.8 102 101 2.5 9.2 9.7 1.1 1.0 2.7 9.7 25 24 (0) 2 2 38 5 REITS 56 Dec-12 6 7 6 24.3 22.9 21.5 20.4 101 102 4.6 5.3 5.6 1.2 1.2 na 24.2 39 38 (1) (1) (0) 33 10 Retailing 90 Dec-12 6 25 17 19.4 18.5 14.6 12.3 94 100 1.8 10.1 11.8 1.8 1.6 0.8 10.8 11 7 0 1 2 13 2
Small Cap Companies 26 Dec-12 (7) 13 9 13.4 14.6 12.9 13.3 89 85 2.7 12.6 13.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 8.9 8 2 (1) 2 4 18 3 Technology 840 Dec-12 41 14 8 16.3 11.7 10.2 9.3 103 103 1.7 18.5 18.4 2.0 1.7 0.9 5.8 (10) (18) (0) 2 5 16 5 Telecommunication Services 655 Dec-12 11 13 12 16.7 15.0 13.3 11.9 100 105 3.8 13.6 14.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 5.6 11 8 (1) (0) 6 18 5
Transportation 148 Dec-12 106 44 23 34.4 16.6 11.4 8.5 105 109 2.4 7.4 9.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 9.1 78 75 0 1 (1) 15 1 Utilities 327 Dec-12 40 14 8 20.2 14.5 12.7 12.6 99 99 2.9 10.4 11.2 1.5 1.4 2.4 9.2 112 108 (1) (0) 3 36 10
CS TOTAL - NJA 10,543 Dec-12 14 11 7 12.8 11.4 10.2 9.2 100 100 3.0 13.8 14.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 7.4 29 25 (0) 1 5 20 3
CS TOTAL - ASIA PAC 10,543 Dec-12 16 11 7 15.8 13.4 11.7 10.1 98 97 2.7 12.7 13.2 1.6 1.5 1.2 7.8 29 24 (0) 1 6 28 11
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Australia—valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Automobiles & Components
Paul Buys - 61 2 8205 4538
Fleetwood Corporation FWD AU U AUD 5.19 9.25 78 308 3.2 (8) (36) (42) (57) (47) (8) (35) (46) (82) (58) Jun-12 (48) 65 14 5.8 11.3 6.8 6.0 130 124 11.6 12.1 1.4 1.1 6.5 21
Banks James Ellis / Jarrod Martin - 61 2 8205 4531 / 61 2 8205 4334
ANZ Banking Group ANZ AU N AUD 29.30 31.50 8 78,798 176.2 (1) (2) 3 39 17 (1) (2) (1) 14 6 Sep-12 10 6 5 13.8 12.6 11.9 11.3 101 102 5.5 15.9 1.9 na na na
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank BEN AU N AUD 10.77 10.50 (3) 4,298 9.9 (1) (2) 4 54 27 (0) (2) 0 29 16 Jun-12 (5) 3 5 13.6 14.4 13.9 13.3 94 91 5.6 8.3 1.1 na na na Bank of Queensland BOQ AU N AUD 9.45 9.50 1 2,913 14.8 0 (2) (2) 46 29 0 (2) (6) 20 17 Aug-12 960 13 10 128.1 12.1 10.7 9.7 104 107 5.9 9.1 1.1 na na na Commonwealth Bank Australia
CBA AU U AUD 71.70 71.00 (1) 113,082 257.3 (1) (1) 3 44 15 (1) (1) (1) 18 4 Jun-12 5 4 3 16.5 15.7 15.0 14.6 99 99 4.9 18.1 2.7 na na na
National Australia Bank NAB AU N AUD 32.71 34.00 4 75,096 176.5 (1) (1) 3 37 31 (1) (1) (1) 11 20 Sep-12 5 8 6 13.7 13.0 12.0 11.3 102 103 5.7 14.9 1.9 na na na Westpac WBC AU U AUD 31.19 31.00 (1) 94,879 196.7 (1) (2) 0 51 20 (1) (1) (4) 26 9 Sep-12 6 2 6 14.9 14.0 13.8 13.1 100 98 5.6 16.0 2.1 na na na
Sector* 2 369,065 (1) (2) 2 43 20 (1) (1) (2) 18 9 Jun-12 6 5 5 15.0 14.1 13.4 12.7 100 100 5.3 15.8 2.1 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Andrew Peros - 61 2 8205 4013
Adelaide Brighton ABC AU U AUD 3.46 3.30 (5) 2,165 7.0 0 2 3 18 11 1 3 (1) (7) (0) Dec-12 (1) 6 4 14.4 14.6 13.7 13.3 100 96 5.1 14.8 2.1 2.1 9.0 25 Boral BLD AU O AUD 4.61 5.10 11 3,497 21.0 1 2 (5) 28 5 1 3 (9) 2 (6) Jun-12 (5) 126 36 34.1 35.9 15.9 11.7 95 106 2.2 3.0 1.1 1.0 9.9 47
CSR CSR AU U AUD 2.06 2.00 (3) 1,022 5.3 0 6 7 26 5 0 6 3 0 (6) Mar-13 63 41 23 31.9 19.6 13.9 11.3 95 89 3.4 5.2 1.0 0.6 5.7 (3) James Hardie Industries SE JHX AU N AUD 10.45 10.00 (4) 4,523 11.8 1 (3) 8 40 15 1 (2) 4 15 3 Mar-12 (1) 39 27 31.8 32.2 23.2 18.3 105 108 3.9 128.5 49.5 3.3 18.3 (100) Sector* 0 11,207 1 1 3 31 10 1 1 (1) 5 (1) Jun-12 (6) 47 25 24.5 26.0 17.7 12.4 100 102 3.2 8.0 2.1 1.4 11.0 32
Capital Goods Bradley Clibborn / Andrew Peros / Paul Buys - 61 2 8205 4465 / 61 2 8205 4013 / 61 2 8205 4538
Bradken Limited BKN AU O AUD 4.66 7.35 58 773 7.3 (2) (14) (9) (25) (15) (1) (13) (13) (51) (26) Jun-12 8 12 9 7.8 7.2 6.4 5.9 110 114 9.1 15.0 1.0 0.9 5.2 57
Clough CLO AU O AUD 1.14 1.32 16 869 1.1 (3) (5) (2) 52 23 (3) (4) (6) 27 11 Jun-12 77 (10) (2) 18.3 10.3 11.5 11.7 103 103 3.3 21.5 2.0 0.4 6.2 (75) Emeco Holdings EHL AU N AUD 0.41 0.65 59 241 1.9 (1) (8) (15) (52) (33) (1) (7) (19) (77) (44) Jun-12 (33) 12 14 3.6 5.4 4.8 4.2 109 116 13.3 7.7 0.4 1.4 3.1 67 GWA GROUP Limited GWA AU N AUD 2.52 1.95 (23) 757 2.2 2 (1) 4 30 10 2 (0) 0 4 (2) Jun-12 (2) 24 11 16.8 17.1 13.8 12.4 111 116 5.6 10.5 1.8 1.6 10.0 38
Leighton Holdings LEI AU U AUD 18.88 19.20 2 6,240 19.6 2 1 (0) 5 6 3 2 (4) (20) (6) Dec-12 31 0 6 14.4 11.0 11.0 10.4 102 96 6.2 19.4 2.0 0.3 3.0 (13) Royal Wolf Holdings RWH AU O AUD 2.95 3.46 17 290 0.1 (2) (2) (3) 40 13 (1) (1) (7) 14 1 Jun-12 24 15 12 18.9 15.3 13.3 11.8 106 105 3.4 13.9 2.1 2.6 9.1 69 UGL Limited UGL AU N AUD 7.17 8.50 19 1,170 12.1 (2) (10) (28) (40) (34) (1) (9) (32) (66) (45) Jun-12 (44) 49 7 7.4 13.2 8.8 8.3 94 103 5.9 7.8 1.0 0.4 8.6 48
Sector* 9 10,341 1 (2) (4) 3 1 1 (2) (8) (22) (11) Jun-12 120 15 5 25.6 11.6 10.1 9.6 102 103 5.6 14.3 1.6 0.4 4.3 17
Chemicals Andrew Peros / Larry Gandler - 61 2 8205 4013 / 61 3 9280 1855
Incitec Pivot Ltd. IPL AU N AUD 2.83 3.25 15 4,518 25.6 1 (5) (4) (2) (12) 1 (5) (8) (27) (23) Sep-12 (28) 21 26 10.3 14.3 11.8 9.4 96 97 3.5 7.9 1.1 1.8 8.7 36 Nufarm NUF AU O AUD 4.40 5.05 15 1,134 4.7 0 4 8 (7) (24) 1 5 4 (33) (35) Jul-12 (22) 29 24 10.0 12.9 10.0 8.0 112 108 1.8 7.1 0.9 0.8 6.4 36
Orica ORI AU O AUD 23.50 26.00 11 8,450 39.2 3 1 4 (8) (6) 3 1 0 (34) (17) Sep-12 4 9 5 13.1 12.6 11.6 11.0 101 99 4.0 20.4 2.4 1.6 8.7 73 Sector* 12 14,101 2 (1) 2 (6) (10) 2 (0) (2) (32) (21) Jun-12 (10) 8 14 11.6 12.8 11.8 10.4 102 100 3.7 13.0 1.6 1.5 8.5 50
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Grant Saligari / Paul Buys - 61 3 9280 1720 / 61 2 8205 4538
Billabong International BBG AU N AUD 0.46 0.60 30 214 2.9 0 0 (7) (73) (45) 0 1 (11) (99) (56) Jun-12 (14) 40 4 11.8 13.7 9.8 9.4 88 73 0.0 1.9 0.4 0.3 5.4 34 G.U.D. Holdings GUD AU N AUD 7.39 8.05 9 517 2.7 1 (4) 1 (6) (13) 1 (3) (3) (32) (25) Jun-12 (7) 13 12 11.7 12.6 11.1 9.8 104 109 10.6 16.4 2.2 1.0 7.5 28 Sector* 16 730 0 (3) (1) (26) (23) 1 (2) (5) (51) (34) Jun-12 (9) 21 10 11.8 12.9 10.7 9.7 99 94 7.5 5.4 0.9 0.5 6.5 32
Consumer Staples Grant Saligari / Larry Gandler - 61 3 9280 1720 / 61 3 9280 1855
Coca-Cola Amatil CCL AU U AUD 12.88 12.90 0 9,639 36.4 (1) (1) (13) 1 (4) (1) (1) (17) (25) (15) Dec-12 (1) 2 3 17.5 17.7 17.3 16.8 100 95 4.8 26.2 4.5 2.2 10.3 88
Goodman Fielder GFF AU U AUD 0.73 0.70 (4) 1,399 5.3 (1) (3) (4) 22 18 (0) (3) (8) (4) 7 Jun-12 23 25 9 23.2 18.9 15.1 13.8 82 88 2.7 5.3 1.0 0.9 7.8 32 Graincorp GNC AU R AUD 12.77 2,864 18.9 0 0 11 37 3 1 1 7 12 (8) Sep-12 (25) (15) 6 12.5 16.6 19.4 18.4 101 96 3.7 10.7 1.7 1.1 9.7 39 Metcash MTS AU N AUD 4.05 4.05 0 3,496 17.4 (2) (2) 0 1 22 (2) (2) (4) (24) 11 Apr-12 0 3 1 12.4 12.4 12.1 11.9 104 103 6.8 12.8 1.5 0.3 8.2 47
Treasury Wine TWE AU U AUD 6.26 3.60 (42) 3,971 23.4 (1) (0) 6 38 33 (0) 0 2 13 22 Jun-12 (5) 30 12 29.9 31.3 24.0 21.5 95 101 2.2 4.3 1.3 2.5 14.5 0 Wesfarmers WES AU U AUD 42.89 35.73 (17) 48,652 88.8 0 0 2 43 16 1 1 (2) 17 5 Jun-12 5 11 13 23.2 22.0 19.9 17.6 99 97 3.6 8.7 1.9 0.9 11.7 20 Woolworths WOW AU U AUD 34.50 29.25 (15) 42,119 80.6 (0) 0 (3) 27 18 0 1 (7) 1 7 Jun-12 7 4 6 19.4 18.2 17.4 16.4 100 99 3.8 27.6 4.9 0.8 10.1 36
Sector* (15) 112,141 (0) (0) (1) 31 16 0 0 (5) 6 4 Jun-12 4 7 8 20.4 19.5 18.3 16.9 99 98 3.8 13.0 2.5 0.9 10.7 27
Diversified Financials David Bailey / Andrew Adams / James Ellis - 61 2 8205 4739 / 61 2 8205 4106 / 61 2 8205 4531
ASX ASX AU U AUD 39.77 32.00 (20) 6,827 21.8 1 1 8 34 27 1 2 4 9 16 Jun-12 0 9 10 20.1 20.1 18.5 16.8 99 99 4.5 11.4 2.3 na na na BT Investment Management BTT AU N AUD 3.73 3.75 1 1,002 0.6 (1) 1 11 98 59 (0) 2 7 73 48 Sep-12 44 8 15 25.2 17.5 16.1 14.1 98 100 4.8 12.6 2.2 na na na Challenger Financial Services Group
CGF AU O AUD 4.40 4.90 11 2,296 9.1 (0) 3 8 25 24 0 3 4 (0) 13 Jun-12 (1) 8 (3) 7.7 7.8 7.2 7.4 100 105 4.2 16.6 1.2 na na na
Computershare CPU AU O AUD 10.61 11.15 5 5,784 17.4 (0) 0 10 34 18 0 1 6 8 7 Jun-12 14 15 15 21.2 18.5 16.1 14.1 102 101 2.8 26.0 4.7 na na na Henderson group HGG AU O AUD 2.78 2.75 (1) 5,091 8.2 0 2 21 77 36 1 2 17 52 25 Dec-12 7 14 14 15.3 14.3 12.5 11.0 110 107 4.7 17.7 2.4 na na na
IOOF Holdings IFL AU N AUD 8.83 9.00 2 2,009 4.9 0 (1) 1 56 22 1 (1) (3) 31 11 Jun-12 13 20 15 21.3 18.8 15.6 13.6 101 106 4.8 13.4 2.5 na na na Macquarie Group MQG AU O AUD 45.60 48.00 5 15,182 57.3 (0) (3) 25 73 28 0 (2) 21 47 17 Mar-13 34 18 15 20.6 15.4 13.1 11.4 96 97 5.6 9.4 1.3 na na na Perpetual PPT AU N AUD 45.54 43.00 (6) 1,874 4.6 1 2 13 102 31 1 2 9 77 20 Jun-12 19 27 13 28.1 23.6 18.6 16.4 104 101 2.9 27.8 6.4 na na na
Platinum Asset Management
PTM AU U AUD 5.50 4.75 (14) 3,069 3.8 (0) 4 10 40 39 (0) 4 6 15 27 Jun-12 3 20 10 25.5 24.9 20.7 18.8 97 97 4.0 51.4 12.0 na na na
Suncorp Group Limited SUN AU U AUD 12.67 12.20 (4) 15,977 44.6 (0) 2 5 65 25 (0) 2 1 40 13 Jun-12 30 30 13 22.7 17.5 13.5 11.9 90 102 5.6 6.7 1.2 na na na
Sector* (2) 59,110 (0) 0 13 60 28 0 1 9 35 17 Jun-12 13 22 13 20.0 17.7 14.5 12.8 95 100 4.6 9.9 1.7 na na na
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Australia—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Energy Emma Alcock / Benjamin McVicar / James Redfern / Paul McTaggart - 61 2 8205 4403 / 61 2 8205 4577 / 61 2 8205 4779 / 61 2 8205 4698
Aquila Resources AQA AU N AUD 2.22 2.75 24 896 1.6 2 0 16 (29) (13) 2 1 12 (54) (24) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 130.2 71 103 0.0 (14.9) 1.7 nm nm (21) Aurora Oil & Gas AUT AU O AUD 2.95 4.00 36 1,295 6.2 1 1 0 (11) (19) 2 2 (4) (36) (30) Dec-12 118 104 (9) 22.3 10.3 5.0 5.5 99 127 0.0 24.9 2.2 3.2 5.7 129 AWE Ltd AWE AU R AUD 1.27 647 2.6 1 7 10 (19) 4 1 8 6 (45) (7) Jun-12 (45) 9 42 11.7 21.2 19.5 13.7 136 138 0.0 3.1 0.6 2.4 4.8 4
Boart Longyear Group BLY AU O AUD 0.67 1.15 72 303 9.2 (14) (19) (31) (79) (64) (14) (18) (35) (105) (75) Dec-12 (72) 27 40 2.6 9.5 7.5 5.3 63 59 3.2 2.5 0.2 0.5 3.5 36 Caltex Australia CTX AU O AUD 23.48 23.60 1 6,213 15.6 1 7 14 86 22 1 7 10 61 11 Dec-12 (1) 6 3 13.8 13.9 13.1 12.7 103 110 1.8 19.7 2.6 0.3 7.5 21 Karoon Gas KAR AU O AUD 5.86 8.15 39 1,272 3.6 (1) (8) 44 27 11 (1) (7) 40 2 (1) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 48 114 0.0 (10.4) 1.8 nm nm (35)
New Hope Corporation NHC AU U AUD 3.83 3.75 (2) 3,118 0.7 0 (2) 10 (6) (9) 0 (1) 6 (31) (20) Jul-12 (28) (22) 45 18.6 25.7 32.8 22.7 110 77 3.9 5.7 1.5 3.5 13.6 (59) Origin Energy ORG AU N AUD 13.47 12.20 (9) 14,495 37.0 1 5 10 4 16 1 6 6 (21) 5 Jun-12 (16) 6 20 16.4 19.6 18.4 15.3 96 92 3.7 5.7 1.1 1.5 10.1 51 Oil Search OSH AU O AUD 8.09 8.60 6 10,611 28.7 1 4 13 18 15 1 5 9 (8) 4 Dec-12 15 79 145 68.5 59.7 33.4 13.6 105 95 0.5 5.4 3.2 20.5 33.6 121
Santos Ltd STO AU N AUD 13.10 13.25 1 12,381 42.3 0 2 10 6 18 0 3 6 (19) 7 Dec-12 (18) 5 0 21.4 26.0 24.8 24.8 86 82 2.3 5.1 1.3 5.5 10.4 53 WorleyParsons WOR AU O AUD 19.81 23.30 18 4,720 23.0 2 (15) (13) (22) (15) 2 (15) (17) (48) (26) Jun-12 (4) 21 13 14.1 14.6 12.1 10.7 98 109 4.7 16.6 2.4 0.7 8.8 26 Woodside Petroleum WPL AU N AUD 37.56 38.50 3 30,330 83.1 (0) 0 10 22 13 0 1 6 (3) 2 Dec-12 (10) 24 (12) 14.6 16.2 13.0 14.8 94 104 6.7 12.5 2.0 5.6 8.3 15
Sector* 3 86,281 0 1 10 16 12 1 2 6 (10) 0 Jun-12 0 11 19 20.2 20.1 18.1 15.2 97 97 3.3 8.7 1.7 1.8 10.1 31
Global Services Paul Buys - 61 2 8205 4538
McMillan Shakespeare MMS AU N AUD 16.62 15.50 (7) 1,214 3.2 2 2 12 59 20 2 3 8 33 9 Jun-12 12 17 14 22.4 20.1 17.1 15.0 99 101 3.1 34.7 6.3 4.1 8.2 71 Navitas Ltd NVT AU O AUD 5.90 5.50 (7) 2,171 4.0 (1) 4 16 54 26 (0) 5 12 29 14 Jun-12 5 25 19 30.3 28.8 23.1 19.3 99 102 3.3 32.5 9.3 3.2 17.6 40 Sector* (7) 3,385 0 4 14 56 23 0 4 10 31 12 Jun-12 8 21 17 26.9 24.9 20.5 17.5 99 102 3.2 33.5 8.0 3.5 12.3 54
Healthcare Saul Hadassin / William Dunlop - 61 2 8205 4679 / 61 2 8205 4405
Ansell Limited ANN AU O AUD 16.71 19.05 14 2,139 14.0 (0) (2) 8 16 9 (0) (2) 4 (10) (2) Jun-12 5 11 10 16.2 15.4 13.9 12.6 102 99 2.3 18.4 2.6 1.7 12.1 26
Australian Pharmaceutical Ind
API AU O AUD 0.45 0.52 16 215 0.3 0 (2) 0 22 (4) 0 (2) (4) (4) (15) Aug-12 14 6 (2) 9.9 8.7 8.2 8.4 104 103 6.7 4.4 0.4 0.1 4.5 22
Cochlear COH AU U AUD 69.02 71.00 3 3,859 17.9 (3) (4) 9 11 (13) (3) (4) 5 (14) (24) Jun-12 (5) 15 8 24.8 26.2 22.9 21.1 97 103 3.6 38.9 10.1 5.3 16.6 10
CSL Ltd CSL AU O AUD 60.95 60.50 (1) 29,493 76.3 0 (4) 1 63 13 0 (3) (3) 38 2 Jun-12 25 15 10 30.3 24.2 21.0 19.1 100 100 1.8 36.1 8.7 6.0 17.2 18 Mesoblast MSB AU O AUD 6.02 8.20 36 1,861 3.0 9 8 10 (11) 14 10 8 6 (37) 2 Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 106 75 0.0 (11.0) 3.2 nm nm (53) Mayne Pharma MYX AU O AUD 0.46 0.48 4 251 0.5 0 6 12 89 52 0 6 8 63 41 Jun-12 (39) 30 90 18.9 31.1 23.9 12.5 105 87 0.0 7.8 2.2 3.5 15.3 22
Primary Health Care PRY AU N AUD 5.11 4.70 (8) 2,524 10.1 1 0 (1) 85 28 1 1 (5) 60 17 Jun-12 20 12 10 20.9 17.5 15.6 14.2 96 95 2.7 5.6 1.0 2.5 9.4 38 Pharmaxis PXS AU N AUD 0.17 0.20 18 51 0.7 (15) 13 (46) (84) (86) (15) 14 (50) (110) (97) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 100 120 0.0 (44.4) 0.7 0.2 nm (73) Ramsay Health Care RHC AU N AUD 35.12 34.50 (2) 6,956 12.9 1 2 10 64 29 1 3 6 39 18 Jun-12 21 14 14 29.2 24.1 21.2 18.6 107 107 1.9 22.4 5.5 1.9 12.9 64
ResMed Inc. RMD AU N AUD 5.13 4.60 (10) 7,825 19.5 1 1 18 58 30 2 1 14 33 19 Jun-12 27 7 14 29.3 23.1 21.5 18.9 99 95 1.4 18.7 4.1 4.7 15.9 (38) Sonic Healthcare SHL AU N AUD 14.45 13.50 (7) 5,619 16.6 1 (2) 10 13 8 1 (1) 6 (12) (3) Jun-12 (1) 11 7 17.9 18.1 16.3 15.3 96 97 4.2 11.9 2.1 2.1 11.3 53 Sigma Pharmaceuticals SIP AU N AUD 0.83 0.70 (16) 937 2.0 0 (1) 14 32 13 0 (0) 10 6 2 Jan-13 3 8 7 18.3 17.8 16.5 15.4 97 95 5.4 9.0 1.6 0.3 10.3 (17)
Sector* (1) 61,730 1 (2) 6 51 15 1 (1) 2 26 4 Jun-12 18 14 15 29.4 24.9 21.8 18.9 99 97 2.1 17.2 4.2 2.8 15.5 22
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Larry Gandler / Chris Smith / Paul Buys - 61 3 9280 1855 / 61 2 8205 4210 / 61 2 8205 4538
Aristocrat Leisure ALL AU U AUD 4.20 3.90 (7) 2,270 6.9 (1) 0 17 40 33 (0) 1 13 14 22 Sep-12 1 14 12 25.1 24.7 21.8 19.4 91 90 2.4 30.7 7.0 3.0 13.5 48 Crown CWN AU U AUD 12.96 12.80 (1) 9,252 19.2 (2) (4) 5 46 21 (2) (3) 1 21 10 Jun-12 (4) 25 10 22.9 23.9 19.1 17.3 88 91 2.9 11.8 2.8 4.0 15.7 60
Domino's Pizza DMP AU N AUD 13.49 10.40 (23) 928 1.4 (0) (0) 5 45 28 0 0 1 20 17 Jul-12 15 18 na 35.1 30.6 25.9 na 100 102 2.4 28.7 9.3 3.3 17.1 4 Echo Entertainment EGP AU U AUD 3.44 3.50 2 2,784 9.9 (0) (3) (2) (19) 0 (0) (3) (6) (44) (11) Jun-12 (19) 17 1 17.7 21.7 18.6 18.3 102 97 2.0 4.6 1.0 2.1 9.0 31 Flight Centre FLT AU N AUD 40.75 33.50 (18) 4,011 16.9 1 3 12 118 51 1 3 8 93 40 Jun-12 10 5 7 20.4 18.5 17.5 16.4 96 92 3.0 24.3 4.2 1.5 8.5 (112)
Tabcorp Holdings TAH AU N AUD 3.60 3.55 (1) 2,628 10.7 0 0 10 22 18 0 1 6 (3) 7 Jun-12 (63) 7 19 7.6 20.4 19.1 16.1 95 99 4.9 9.2 1.9 1.9 8.5 81 Tatts Group TTS AU N AUD 3.34 3.35 0 4,592 12.6 0 (0) 2 29 11 0 0 (2) 4 (0) Jun-12 (37) 12 7 14.0 22.4 20.0 18.7 95 100 4.5 7.7 1.7 2.1 12.5 54 Webjet WEB AU N AUD 4.32 5.10 18 336 1.2 2 (2) (16) 31 (1) 2 (1) (20) 6 (12) Jun-12 11 29 13 23.0 20.6 16.0 14.1 106 102 3.0 31.5 5.1 3.8 13.5 (76)
Sector* (4) 26,800 (1) (1) 6 44 22 (0) (1) 2 19 11 Jun-12 (23) 15 9 17.2 22.3 19.3 17.7 93 94 3.2 10.5 2.3 2.5 11.8 39
Insurance Andrew Adams - 61 2 8205 4106
AMP AMP AU N AUD 5.48 5.76 5 15,815 44.0 (1) (3) 6 42 14 (1) (3) 2 16 3 Dec-12 6 13 8 18.5 17.5 15.5 14.3 94 98 4.7 11.2 2.1 na na na Austbrokers AUB AU N AUD 10.78 9.55 (11) 612 0.5 (0) 1 12 63 25 (0) 2 8 37 14 Jun-12 12 9 9 24.3 21.6 19.8 18.1 90 89 3.1 16.3 3.2 na na na Insurance Australia Group IAG AU N AUD 5.56 5.75 3 11,329 29.1 (1) (4) (2) 66 19 (0) (3) (6) 41 7 Jun-12 66 (9) 12 21.9 13.2 14.5 12.9 87 90 4.6 20.9 2.6 na na na
QBE Insurance Group QBE AU O AUD 15.23 13.10 (14) 17,912 60.9 (1) (2) 16 20 40 (1) (1) 12 (5) 29 Dec-12 42 28 17 24.9 17.6 13.7 11.8 81 89 2.7 9.4 1.5 na na na Tower Limited TWR AU N AUD 1.45 1.53 6 294 0.0 (5) (1) 0 16 (4) (4) (0) (4) (9) (15) Sep-12 43 (18) 6 8.3 5.8 7.1 6.7 na na 9.4 15.6 0.9 na na na Sector* (3) 45,963 (1) (3) 8 39 25 (1) (2) 4 14 14 Jun-12 24 13 17 21.6 17.4 15.4 13.2 85 90 3.8 11.6 1.9 na na na
Media Samantha Carleton - 61 2 8205 4148
News Corporation NWS AU O AUD 33.90 36.00 6 76,736 36.7 0 (1) 11 71 38 0 (0) 7 45 27 Jun-12 20 20 18 23.6 19.8 16.5 14.0 102 101 0.5 14.3 2.5 2.3 11.3 21
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Australia—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Metals & Mining James Redfern / Matthew Hope / Michael Slifirski / Paul McTaggart / Ralph Profiti - 61 2 8205 4779 / 61 2 8205 4669 / 61 3 9280 1845 / 61 2 8205 4698 / 416 352 4563
Atlas Iron AGO AU O AUD 0.84 1.30 55 749 15.0 (1) (5) (8) (61) (53) (0) (4) (12) (86) (64) Jun-12 (36) 22 (70) 10.8 16.8 13.8 45.6 86 60 3.6 2.6 0.5 1.0 4.6 (5) Ampella Mining Limited AMX AU O AUD 0.21 1.00 376 50 0.2 (11) (15) 11 (75) (32) (11) (14) 7 (101) (43) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 19.4 85 211 0.0 (25.5) 0.6 nm nm (73) Altona Mining Limited AOH AT O AUD 0.18 0.44 144 93 0.1 (5) (3) (5) (22) (37) (5) (2) (9) (47) (48) Jun-12 nm (86) 564 nm 6.1 42.2 6.4 99 107 0.0 17.3 0.9 1.6 5.8 22
Alacer Gold Corp. AQG AU O AUD 2.33 4.80 106 660 2.7 (3) (10) (9) (61) (48) (3) (10) (13) (86) (59) Dec-12 (25) 52 20 9.0 12.0 7.9 6.6 69 95 0.0 4.9 0.6 0.5 1.3 (27) Arrium OST AU O AUD 0.85 1.10 29 1,129 7.8 (2) (7) 3 (15) (7) (2) (7) (1) (40) (18) Jun-12 (11) 47 (4) 5.8 6.5 4.4 4.6 112 105 7.7 4.1 0.3 0.4 5.2 44 Alumina Limited AWC AU U AUD 1.05 0.80 (24) 2,888 14.2 1 1 6 11 17 1 2 2 (15) 6 Dec-12 nm nm 94 nm nm 29.8 15.3 441 216 0.0 (0.2) 0.9 nm nm 7
BHP Billiton BHP AU N AUD 35.27 35.00 (1) 174,459 293.2 1 4 11 9 (5) 2 4 7 (16) (16) Jun-12 (26) 4 2 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.7 97 82 3.4 19.0 2.6 3.0 7.0 39 Bandanna Energy Limited BND AU O AUD 0.13 0.35 169 65 0.3 (4) 0 (7) (73) (50) (4) 1 (11) (98) (61) Jun-12 (557) nm nm 29.9 nm nm nm 131 63 0.0 (5.0) 0.3 nm nm (36) Base Resources Ltd BSE AU O AUD 0.39 0.70 79 215 0.2 0 3 18 (8) 66 0 3 14 (33) 55 Jun-12 (325) nm 182 75.7 nm 5.2 1.8 60 64 0.0 (3.5) 1.1 nm nm 27
BlueScope Steel BSL AU O AUD 5.33 6.45 21 2,916 14.3 (0) 5 11 165 54 (0) 6 7 140 43 Jun-12 nm 291 40 nm 71.0 18.1 13.0 136 97 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 7.8 4 Bathurst Resources BTU AU O AUD 0.18 0.40 122 120 1.1 (3) (8) (10) (65) (52) (2) (7) (14) (90) (63) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 11.9 90 39 0.0 (7.6) 0.7 3.3 nm (14) Cockatoo Coal COK AU O AUD 0.05 0.17 240 51 0.2 (2) (9) (25) (77) (56) (2) (8) (29) (103) (67) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 6.8 46 nm 0.0 (6.3) 0.2 1.2 26.3 14
Energy Resources of Australia
ERA AU O AUD 1.08 1.70 57 545 0.6 1 4 (0) (27) (15) 1 5 (4) (53) (26) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 29.1 97 82 0.0 (15.3) 0.6 0.5 2.3 (40)
Evolution Mining Limited EVN AT O AUD 0.84 1.20 43 579 3.2 0 (11) (13) (47) (51) 0 (10) (17) (72) (62) Jun-12 (45) 13 (37) 7.1 12.9 11.3 18.0 79 59 0.0 4.3 0.5 1.2 3.3 11
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd FMG AU O AUD 3.63 5.00 38 11,078 70.3 3 1 (5) (24) (22) 4 2 (9) (50) (33) Jun-12 3 (4) (23) 7.9 7.7 8.0 10.4 91 64 1.1 32.3 2.1 2.2 5.8 89 Gindalbie Metals Ltd GBG AU N AUD 0.15 0.22 47 212 2.2 (6) (6) (24) (68) (42) (6) (6) (28) (93) (53) Jun-12 nm nm (213) nm nm 10.2 nm 185 159 0.0 (1.9) 0.3 nm nm (5) Gryphon Minerals Limited GRY AU O AUD 0.19 0.85 347 73 1.0 (5) (20) (10) (74) (64) (5) (19) (14) (99) (75) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 168 187 0.0 (2.6) 0.3 524.3 nm (5)
Independence Group NL IGO AU O AUD 3.34 4.75 42 762 3.3 5 3 0 (7) (28) 5 3 (4) (33) (39) Jun-12 908 87 102 269.5 26.7 14.3 7.1 109 115 0.6 4.5 1.2 3.1 11.4 (5) Iluka Resources ILU AU U AUD 11.79 11.00 (7) 4,838 34.2 6 8 32 (14) 31 6 8 28 (39) 20 Dec-12 (90) nm (19) 13.6 129.5 8.8 10.9 41 174 0.8 2.4 3.2 5.7 17.4 9 Kula Gold KGD AU O AUD 0.11 0.35 218 14 0.0 0 (8) (8) (83) (66) 0 (8) (12) (108) (77) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 1.4 231 75 0.0 (1.4) 0.2 nm nm (22)
Mirabela Nickel MBN AU N AUD 0.16 0.27 69 133 1.0 (3) 0 (16) (52) (68) (3) 1 (20) (77) (79) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 67 nm 0.0 (41.7) 1.7 1.3 12.1 422 Mineral Deposits Ltd. MDL AU O AUD 3.02 5.00 66 247 0.8 1 1 2 (43) (22) 1 2 (2) (68) (33) Dec-12 (62) 138 166 12.3 32.4 13.6 5.1 55 53 0.0 1.6 0.5 nm nm (3) Mount Gibson Iron MGX AU O AUD 0.52 0.65 25 550 3.4 2 4 2 (44) (38) 2 5 (2) (70) (49) Jun-12 (40) (34) (91) 3.0 5.0 7.5 85.8 95 72 7.8 10.2 0.5 0.5 1.7 (14)
Newcrest Mining NCM AU O AUD 14.87 24.20 63 11,171 85.4 (5) (6) (13) (41) (33) (4) (6) (17) (66) (44) Jun-12 (43) 66 6 10.5 18.5 11.1 10.5 108 123 2.7 4.0 0.7 3.7 9.4 18 OZ Minerals OZL AU O AUD 4.12 8.40 104 1,225 13.7 (4) 2 (4) (50) (39) (4) 2 (8) (76) (50) Dec-12 (135) nm nm 8.4 nm nm nm 12 nm 0.0 (1.9) 0.5 1.1 6.5 (16) Panoramic Resources PAN AU N AUD 0.25 0.35 40 63 0.2 (4) (4) (25) (70) (48) (4) (3) (29) (95) (59) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 94 95 4.0 (7.9) 0.2 0.2 2.6 (5)
Paladin Energy PDN AU O AUD 0.95 1.70 79 816 1.3 (3) 5 26 (24) (8) (2) 6 22 (50) (19) Jun-12 nm nm 72 nm 622.7 17.5 10.1 nm 156 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 nm 52 PanAust PNADA AU N AUD 2.34 2.50 7 1,413 9.4 (0) (2) 5 (19) (30) (0) (1) 1 (44) (41) Dec-12 (33) 37 (18) 9.6 14.3 10.4 12.7 76 90 1.8 10.1 1.4 1.8 5.0 (7) Perseus Mining PRU AU O AUD 1.06 2.25 112 474 4.5 (8) (17) (23) (57) (50) (8) (16) (27) (83) (61) Jun-12 8 33 30 10.0 9.2 6.9 5.3 91 83 0.0 12.7 1.0 1.3 3.3 (14)
Rio Tinto RIO AU O AUD 56.30 70.00 24 87,800 176.9 2 1 2 (1) (15) 2 1 (2) (26) (26) Dec-12 2 (12) 3 11.0 10.7 12.2 11.8 96 76 3.0 18.9 1.9 2.1 5.5 26 Regis Resources Limited RRL AU O AUD 3.73 4.10 10 1,739 10.7 (3) (3) 5 (4) (27) (3) (2) 1 (30) (38) Jun-12 110 43 (4) 24.6 11.7 8.2 8.5 103 107 5.4 39.1 3.4 4.0 6.6 (17) Sandfire Resources NL SFR AU N AUD 6.56 5.55 (15) 988 4.8 0 2 9 (10) (24) 1 3 5 (35) (35) Jun-12 nm 16 (0) nm 6.4 5.5 5.5 129 123 0.0 79.5 3.6 2.6 3.9 77
Sims Metal Management SGM AU N AUD 9.89 11.00 11 1,980 10.3 (1) (6) 5 (20) 7 (1) (5) 1 (45) (4) Jun-12 (47) 212 56 29.8 55.8 17.9 11.4 71 78 0.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 11.4 14 Stanmore Coal SMR AU N AUD 0.14 0.20 43 28 0.1 4 0 (10) (74) (29) 4 1 (14) (100) (40) Jun-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 99 128 0.0 (9.7) 0.3 nm nm (0) Tigers Realm Coal TIG AU O AUD 0.16 0.25 56 60 0.0 (3) (6) (3) (24) 0 (3) (5) (7) (49) (11) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 125 187 0.0 (11.4) 0.9 nm nm (4)
Whitehaven Coal WHC AU O AUD 2.25 3.00 33 2,262 13.1 (1) 4 14 (45) (36) (1) 5 10 (70) (47) Jun-12 (157) nm nm 22.4 nm nm 15.8 111 nm 0.0 (1.8) 0.7 4.6 380.2 16 Western Areas NL WSA AU O AUD 3.04 4.00 32 586 3.6 1 2 11 (31) (32) 2 3 7 (57) (43) Jun-12 (69) 22 146 14.4 46.4 38.0 15.5 92 67 1.1 4.3 1.8 2.3 5.7 41 Yancoal Australia YAL AU N AUD 0.71 0.80 13 692 0.1 1 1 (3) na (29) 2 2 (7) na (40) Dec-12 (51) 506 68 3.8 7.7 1.3 0.8 nm 790 0.0 5.0 0.4 2.5 11.7 195
Sector* 12 313,723 1 2 7 2 (9) 1 3 3 (23) (20) Jun-12 (34) 8 6 9.4 14.2 13.1 12.4 97 82 2.9 14.4 1.9 2.4 6.9 32
Real Estate John Lee / John Richmond - 61 2 8205 4413 / 61 2 82054580
Australand ALZ AU N AUD 3.61 3.56 (1) 2,046 2.9 (0) (1) 3 39 6 0 (0) (1) 14 (5) Dec-11 5 4 3 15.4 14.7 14.1 13.6 100 100 6.0 6.6 1.0 13.2 59 CFS Retail Property Trust CFX AU N AUD 2.16 2.36 9 5,988 14.3 (4) (1) (0) 15 13 (4) (0) (4) (10) 2 Jun-12 4 3 3 16.5 15.9 15.5 15.0 100 100 6.3 6.5 1.0 17.2 40 Charter Hall Retail REIT CQR AU U AUD 4.31 4.30 (0) 1,426 3.2 (2) 1 3 32 15 (2) 1 (1) 6 4 Jun-12 4 4 2 15.0 14.4 13.9 13.7 101 100 6.3 8.5 1.1 16.0 56
Investa Office Fund IOF AU U AUD 3.33 3.37 1 2,004 6.2 (2) 2 2 25 12 (2) 3 (2) (1) 1 Jun-12 10 5 2 16.5 15.0 14.3 14.0 100 103 5.3 6.4 1.0 15.8 32 Mirvac Group MGR AU O AUD 1.75 1.91 9 6,282 16.2 (3) (1) 2 38 18 (2) (1) (2) 13 7 Jun-12 0 12 2 16.3 16.3 14.6 14.2 99 102 4.9 5.7 1.0 18.6 34 Sector* 6 17,746 (3) (1) 1 29 14 (2) (0) (3) 3 3 Jun-12 3 6 3 16.1 15.6 14.7 14.3 100 101 5.7 6.4 1.0 16.6 40
REITS John Lee / John Richmond / Stephen Rich - 61 2 8205 4413 / 61 2 82054580 / 61 2 8205 4617
Commonwealth Property Office Fund
CPA AU N AUD 1.16 1.19 3 2,657 9.5 (0) (2) (1) 14 13 (0) (1) (5) (12) 2 Jun-12 5 3 2 13.8 13.2 12.9 12.6 104 104 5.7 7.6 1.0 14.9 39
Dexus Property Group DXS AU U AUD 1.16 1.19 3 5,502 18.1 (3) (3) 3 24 14 (3) (2) (1) (1) 3 Jun-12 1 4 3 15.2 15.0 14.4 13.9 102 102 5.0 7.2 1.1 16.0 40 Federation Centres CRF AU U AUD 2.61 2.35 (10) 3,652 12.9 (3) (2) 6 37 15 (2) (1) 2 12 4 Jun-12 71 8 5 28.4 16.6 15.4 14.8 99 101 5.3 6.6 1.1 16.2 46
Goodman Group GMGDA AU N AUD 5.25 4.80 (9) 8,815 29.8 (2) (4) 3 52 21 (1) (3) (1) 27 10 Jun-12 6 6 5 17.1 16.1 15.1 14.3 99 98 3.7 7.2 1.2 17.6 32 GPT Group GPT AU U AUD 4.08 4.16 2 7,073 19.8 (2) 0 0 26 11 (1) 1 (4) 1 (0) Dec-12 5 2 3 16.8 16.0 15.6 15.2 102 100 5.0 6.4 1.0 15.6 26 Lend Lease LLC AU O AUD 10.30 10.98 7 5,810 17.4 2 (6) (0) 40 11 2 (6) (4) 15 (0) Jun-12 4 8 3 11.6 11.2 10.3 10.1 96 100 3.7 13.8 1.6 8.5 11
Stockland SGP AU N AUD 3.87 4.02 4 8,355 34.2 (3) (1) 2 21 10 (2) (0) (2) (4) (1) Jun-12 (24) 14 9 13.2 17.5 15.3 14.1 100 104 6.2 6.0 1.1 22.2 32 Westfield WDC AU N AUD 12.09 10.80 (11) 25,999 63.3 (2) (0) 4 31 14 (2) 0 0 6 3 Dec-12 6 8 6 18.5 17.5 16.2 15.3 106 109 4.3 9.1 1.5 18.1 66 Westfield Retail Trust WRT AU O AUD 3.32 3.65 10 9,938 46.6 (2) 0 2 24 10 (1) 1 (2) (1) (1) Dec-12 6 4 3 17.8 16.8 16.1 15.6 100 103 6.0 5.7 1.0 16.8 28
Sector* (2) 77,800 (2) (1) 3 31 14 (1) (1) (1) 6 2 Jun-12 2 7 5 16.6 16.2 15.2 14.5 101 103 4.7 7.6 1.2 16.5 39
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Australia—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Retailing Grant Saligari / Chris Smith / Paul Buys - 61 3 9280 1720 / 61 2 8205 4210 / 61 2 8205 4538
ARB Corp ARP AU U AUD 12.94 12.45 (4) 919 1.0 (4) (1) 2 47 19 (4) (0) (2) 21 8 Jun-12 13 15 14 24.4 21.5 18.6 16.4 100 101 2.2 26.7 5.3 3.0 13.6 (27) Breville Group BRG AU N AUD 7.30 6.15 (16) 931 3.7 2 4 8 70 10 2 5 4 44 (1) Jun-12 7 (4) 8 20.7 19.3 20.1 18.5 100 99 3.6 26.4 4.9 1.9 11.4 (31) David Jones DJS AU U AUD 2.72 2.48 (9) 1,426 8.2 (1) (2) (8) 24 15 (1) (2) (12) (2) 4 Jul-12 (2) (13) 10 14.1 14.3 16.5 15.0 97 88 6.0 12.8 1.8 1.2 11.2 16
Fantastic Holdings FAN AU U AUD 1.99 2.55 28 200 0.5 1 (33) (31) (18) (37) 1 (32) (35) (43) (48) Jun-12 (33) 28 27 9.3 13.9 10.8 8.6 79 88 6.3 13.5 1.9 0.5 7.9 11 Harvey Norman HVN AU U AUD 2.65 2.25 (15) 2,759 8.5 (1) (5) (2) 36 39 (1) (5) (6) 10 28 Jun-12 6 1 6 14.7 13.9 13.8 13.0 108 98 3.4 8.9 1.2 2.5 8.8 23 Invocare Group IVC AU N AUD 12.15 10.40 (14) 1,310 2.6 1 3 6 50 38 1 3 2 24 27 Dec-12 16 12 11 30.9 26.7 23.8 21.5 102 104 3.1 31.7 8.1 3.9 15.3 120
JB Hi-Fi JBH AU U AUD 16.34 12.03 (26) 1,585 11.6 (0) (4) 5 78 58 (0) (4) 1 52 47 Jun-12 10 (3) (7) 15.4 14.1 14.5 15.5 100 93 4.4 54.6 6.8 0.5 8.2 37 Myer Holdings MYR AU O AUD 2.68 3.10 16 1,533 13.3 (3) (3) (12) 24 24 (3) (3) (16) (2) 13 Jul-12 (6) 5 12 11.3 12.1 11.4 10.2 96 98 7.0 14.8 1.8 0.6 6.2 37 OrotonGroup ORL AU N AUD 7.36 7.55 3 295 0.6 0 4 5 (6) 7 0 4 1 (31) (4) Jul-12 15 (36) 21 12.1 10.5 16.4 13.5 110 100 10.8 70.6 6.7 1.5 5.6 (44)
Pacific Brands PBG AU U AUD 0.72 0.77 7 644 2.4 (1) (11) (15) 29 16 (0) (11) (19) 3 5 Jun-12 (7) 1 1 9.1 9.8 9.7 9.6 92 90 6.9 9.7 0.9 0.7 6.3 25 Premier Investments Ltd PMV AU O AUD 7.51 8.65 15 1,143 3.5 1 (3) (10) 48 14 1 (2) (14) 23 3 Jul-12 10 12 12 17.3 15.6 13.9 12.5 101 105 4.9 5.8 0.9 1.1 8.3 (17) Specialty Fashion Group SFH AU N AUD 0.95 1.08 14 179 0.2 (6) (8) (19) 78 48 (6) (7) (23) 52 37 Jun-12 nm 3 16 nm 13.0 12.5 10.8 87 70 4.2 23.8 2.8 0.3 3.9 (18)
Super Retail Group SUL AU U AUD 11.67 10.33 (11) 2,247 5.3 (1) (0) (7) 59 18 (0) 0 (11) 33 6 Jun-12 14 16 12 22.0 19.3 16.6 14.9 100 99 2.7 16.8 3.2 2.0 17.0 46 Thorn Group TGA AU N AUD 2.34 2.35 0 338 0.8 4 7 16 60 15 4 8 12 35 4 Mar-13 4 7 9 11.5 11.1 10.4 9.5 103 102 4.7 19.2 2.0 1.7 7.6 15 The Reject Shop TRS AU U AUD 16.78 13.55 (19) 460 2.1 0 (6) 0 59 12 1 (5) (4) 34 1 Jul-12 8 27 19 22.1 20.4 16.1 13.5 107 106 2.2 22.8 3.9 0.7 9.8 2
Wotif.com Holdings WTF AU U AUD 5.57 5.40 (3) 1,156 3.4 (1) 5 15 32 6 (0) 5 11 6 (5) Jun-12 (2) 11 9 20.3 20.8 18.8 17.3 100 99 4.5 56.5 11.6 7.0 12.8 (163) Sector* (7) 17,126 (1) (2) (2) 44 25 (1) (1) (6) 19 14 Jun-12 5 4 8 16.4 15.7 15.1 14.0 100 97 4.3 14.1 2.2 1.2 9.9 16
Small Cap Companies Paul Buys - 61 2 8205 4538
Alliance Aviation Services Limited
AQZ AT O AUD 1.70 2.30 35 176 0.1 1 (2) (13) (23) (8) 1 (2) (17) (48) (19) Jun-12 (5) 15 7 7.2 7.5 6.5 6.1 99 102 6.2 18.5 1.2 1.0 4.0 42
FlexiGroup Limited FXL AU O AUD 4.54 4.85 7 1,331 2.5 (1) (2) 15 101 22 (1) (2) 11 76 11 Jun-12 11 22 12 20.5 18.5 15.2 13.5 100 103 3.3 23.4 4.1 8.3 13.4 289 Sector* 10 1,507 (1) (2) 12 86 19 (1) (2) 8 61 7 Jun-12 7 20 11 16.8 15.8 13.1 11.9 100 103 3.6 22.0 3.2 5.0 11.0 215
Technology David Bailey / Bradley Clibborn / Chris Smith / Samantha Carleton - 61 2 8205 4739 / 61 2 8205 4465 / 61 2 8205 4210 / 61 2 8205 4148
APN News & Media APN AU U AUD 0.32 0.23 (28) 204 0.8 (5) (17) (3) (60) 26 (4) (17) (7) (86) 15 Dec-12 (9) (4) (1) 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 100 98 0.0 11.7 0.5 0.7 4.5 59 carsales.com.au CRZ AU O AUD 10.33 9.70 (6) 2,391 7.9 0 (0) 8 94 41 0 0 4 68 30 Jun-12 17 19 15 33.7 28.8 24.2 21.1 101 101 2.8 60.8 16.4 11.1 20.4 29
Fairfax Media FXJ AU U AUD 0.60 0.48 (20) 1,383 10.2 (2) (10) (5) (8) 18 (1) (9) (9) (33) 7 Jun-12 (32) (18) 2 6.9 10.1 12.4 12.2 104 85 3.3 7.1 0.7 0.7 3.9 3 IRESS Limited IRE AU U AUD 8.70 7.45 (14) 1,097 2.2 1 1 9 40 6 1 2 5 15 (6) Dec-12 (6) 8 12 20.5 21.8 20.2 18.0 106 104 3.8 41.6 9.3 5.1 13.3 (44) Oakton OKN AU N AUD 1.23 1.32 7 108 0.2 (1) (2) (3) 2 (3) (1) (1) (7) (23) (14) Jun-12 (0) 13 17 11.8 11.8 10.4 8.9 102 106 8.3 9.2 1.1 0.6 6.4 (7)
Prime Media Group PRT AU N AUD 1.07 1.05 (2) 384 0.3 0 (1) (3) 55 23 0 (1) (7) 30 12 Jun-12 12 1 6 11.8 10.6 10.5 9.9 102 97 7.3 23.4 2.5 1.8 7.3 76 REA Group REA AU N AUD 31.95 24.20 (24) 4,125 3.5 0 (4) 10 128 78 1 (4) 6 103 66 Jun-12 24 20 10 48.1 38.8 32.3 29.3 101 100 1.3 38.7 13.5 12.0 24.6 (80) Seek SEK AU U AUD 11.20 7.60 (32) 3,708 13.0 2 10 4 68 60 3 10 (0) 43 49 Jun-12 11 19 19 29.1 26.3 22.1 18.5 101 100 1.9 31.3 7.2 6.4 16.7 17
STW Communications Group SGN AU N AUD 1.45 1.45 0 574 1.3 (3) (5) 4 49 31 (3) (4) (0) 24 20 Dec-12 5 10 12 12.1 11.5 10.4 9.3 99 102 5.6 11.7 1.3 1.6 6.6 12 SMS Management & Technology
SMX AU N AUD 4.89 5.00 2 333 1.6 (0) (5) (4) (4) 6 (0) (5) (8) (30) (5) Jun-12 (27) 7 11 11.3 15.4 14.4 13.0 98 95 5.2 18.1 2.7 1.1 9.9 (23)
Seven West Media Ltd SWM AU O AUD 2.10 3.00 43 2,056 9.2 (8) (11) 3 (13) 28 (8) (11) (1) (38) 17 Jun-12 (26) 24 15 7.9 10.7 8.6 7.5 97 107 4.8 8.1 0.7 1.8 7.2 42 Southern Cross Media Group SXL AU U AUD 1.35 1.12 (17) 929 3.3 (4) (10) (13) 5 28 (4) (9) (17) (21) 17 Jun-12 (5) 8 5 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.2 99 96 6.3 5.6 0.6 2.4 7.7 39 Ten Network Holdings TEN AU O AUD 0.26 0.38 46 659 3.8 (2) (17) (19) (53) (10) (2) (17) (23) (79) (21) Aug-12 (118) nm 139 29.8 nm 22.5 9.4 na 105 0.0 (0.4) 0.6 1.1 15.6 0
Trade Me Group Ltd TME AU N AUD 4.55 3.70 (19) 1,766 11.9 2 6 12 47 45 2 7 8 21 34 Jun-12 7 13 12 29.9 27.9 24.7 22.0 100 101 2.9 12.0 3.3 13.8 18.9 18 TPG Telecom TPM AU O AUD 3.85 3.20 (17) 2,995 3.1 (1) 2 11 112 49 (1) 3 7 87 38 Jul-12 23 11 19 26.6 21.5 19.4 16.3 99 99 1.9 21.9 4.4 4.3 11.0 3 Sector* (12) 22,713 (1) (1) 5 63 44 (0) (1) 1 38 33 Jun-12 (10) 13 15 17.5 19.5 17.3 15.1 100 99 2.8 11.3 2.0 2.7 10.6 22
Telecommunication Services Bradley Clibborn / Chate Benchavitvilai - 61 2 8205 4465 / 852 2101 7040
iiNet IIN AU N AUD 6.70 5.20 (22) 1,059 3.3 0 1 14 125 46 0 2 10 99 35 Jun-12 24 13 8 23.8 19.2 17.0 15.7 98 99 2.5 18.5 3.4 1.5 7.5 89
SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS CDI
SGT AU O AUD 3.29 3.46 5 50,374 60.7 2 1 13 31 26 2 1 9 6 15 Mar-13 10 8 12 18.4 16.7 15.5 13.9 101 99 4.4 15.8 2.6 3.9 13.5 28
Telstra Corporation TLS AU N AUD 5.14 4.91 (4) 62,685 155.8 0 3 8 43 18 0 3 4 17 7 Jun-12 6 0 7 18.0 17.1 17.0 15.9 100 98 5.4 32.0 5.4 3.1 7.5 121
Sector* (0) 114,117 1 2 10 38 22 1 2 6 13 11 Jun-12 1 6 9 17.9 17.7 16.6 15.2 99 99 4.8 21.7 3.8 3.4 9.2 65
Transportation Bradley Clibborn / Nicholas Markiewicz / Paul Buys - 61 2 8205 4465 / 61 2 8205 4400 / 61 2 8205 4538
Asciano Group AIO AU O AUD 5.15 5.90 15 4,923 20.0 0 (2) (0) 13 11 1 (1) (4) (12) (1) Jun-12 48 16 10 20.1 13.6 11.7 10.6 104 107 2.1 10.7 1.4 2.1 8.2 87 Aurizon AZJ AU R AUD 4.44 9,301 40.2 1 (0) 15 30 19 1 0 11 4 8 Jun-12 24 15 27 27.3 22.1 19.2 15.1 95 99 2.4 6.6 1.5 3.1 9.7 38 Mermaid Marine Australia MRM AU O AUD 3.44 4.40 28 769 2.2 (2) (8) (7) 17 1 (1) (7) (11) (8) (10) Jun-12 25 9 0 15.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 107 105 3.8 18.4 2.1 2.0 7.3 29
Qantas Airways QAN AU O AUD 1.60 1.85 16 3,515 14.4 (2) (7) (10) 9 7 (2) (6) (14) (16) (4) Jun-12 176 125 33 55.8 20.2 9.0 6.7 189 112 0.0 2.9 0.6 0.4 3.6 54 Qube Logistics QUB AU N AUD 1.81 1.94 7 1,643 1.8 (2) (0) 6 16 8 (1) 0 2 (9) (3) Jun-12 nm 34 41 nm 28.7 21.4 15.2 77 86 2.9 5.7 1.6 2.5 15.2 55 Toll Holdings TOL AU N AUD 5.25 6.10 16 3,690 18.1 1 0 (5) 18 15 2 1 (9) (7) 4 Jun-12 7 14 19 14.0 13.1 11.5 9.6 97 101 5.0 10.3 1.3 0.5 6.5 35
Virgin Australia Holdings VBA AU O AUD 0.43 0.45 5 1,075 1.7 1 (8) (2) 1 1 1 (7) (6) (24) (10) Jun-12 (19) 121 44 13.0 16.0 7.2 5.0 148 158 4.7 6.2 1.0 0.7 8.5 173 Sector* 15 24,917 0 (2) 3 19 13 0 (1) (1) (6) 2 Jun-12 39 34 24 24.2 17.5 13.0 10.5 106 106 2.6 6.9 1.2 1.0 6.9 57
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Australia—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Utilities Benjamin McVicar / Liam Fitzpatrick - 61 2 8205 4577 / 44 20 7883 8350
AGL Energy AGK AU N AUD 15.06 15.90 6 8,180 25.5 1 1 (3) 4 (2) 1 1 (7) (22) (13) Jun-12 10 12 9 15.1 13.7 12.2 11.3 99 102 4.1 8.2 1.1 1.1 7.9 32 APA Group APA AU N AUD 6.86 6.27 (9) 5,619 13.1 1 2 9 37 24 1 2 5 12 13 Jun-12 (3) 6 24 31.3 32.3 30.5 24.5 89 103 5.3 10.0 2.7 8.0 14.9 166 AQUARIUS PLATINUM ORD AQP AU N AUD 0.62 0.87 40 298 1.6 (4) (7) 3 (54) (25) (4) (7) (1) (80) (36) Jun-12 nm nm 172 nm nm 13.5 5.0 78 145 0.0 (5.4) 0.5 1.3 10.3 32
DUET Group DUE AU N AUD 2.41 2.23 (7) 2,762 8.3 (0) (2) (0) 29 16 (0) (1) (4) 4 5 Jun-12 62 15 13 41.4 25.5 22.2 19.7 135 110 6.8 8.0 2.1 6.2 9.7 331 Envestra ENV AU U AUD 1.07 0.91 (15) 1,842 2.2 1 2 2 34 13 1 3 (2) 9 2 Jun-12 38 12 2 21.8 15.8 14.1 13.8 109 108 5.6 17.2 2.6 7.7 10.6 320 Spark Infrastructure Group SKI AU N AUD 1.85 1.70 (8) 2,399 7.9 0 2 4 23 10 1 2 (0) (2) (1) Dec-12 21 10 (1) 14.1 11.6 10.6 10.6 101 101 6.0 13.7 1.5 7.1 7.3 (5)
SP AusNet SPN AU R AUD 1.29 4,241 6.1 (0) (1) 4 22 16 (0) (0) 0 (4) 5 Mar-13 (5) 2 4 15.0 15.8 15.5 14.8 97 104 6.5 44.5 6.6 5.6 9.5 147 Sector* (3) 25,341 1 1 2 20 11 1 1 (2) (5) (0) Jun-12 23 13 11 21.9 17.7 15.7 14.2 100 103 5.3 10.4 1.8 2.9 9.8 105
Country Average* AS51 5,165 5,285 2 1,528,357 (0) (1) 4 25 11 Jun-12 (7) 10 9 15.1 16.2 14.8 13.6 99 95 3.9 13.1 2.0 1.8 9.1 38
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above, Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
China—valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
30 April 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1 Automobiles & Components
Jack Yeung - 852 2101 6779
Geely 175 HK N HKD 4.00 3.50 (13) 4,264 36.8 0 (2) 0 53 9 0 (2) (4) 38 11 Dec-12 3 16 15 11.7 11.3 9.8 8.5 93 90 1.1 16.6 1.8 0.8 5.8 (21) Dongfeng Motor 489 HK O HKD 12.60 13.50 7 13,988 31.2 0 (0) 8 (0) 5 0 (1) 3 (15) 7 Dec-12 5 10 9 9.4 9.0 8.2 7.5 98 100 1.6 16.9 1.4 0.5 3.2 (36) Zhongsheng Group 881 HK U HKD 10.90 8.00 (27) 2,680 3.1 0 1 3 (12) (7) 0 1 (1) (27) (5) Dec-12 63 13 14 21.9 13.4 11.9 10.5 93 78 0.0 14.8 1.8 0.5 8.1 156
Brilliance China 1114 HK O HKD 9.24 12.00 30 5,983 18.4 0 (1) (6) 31 (3) 0 (1) (11) 16 (1) Dec-12 49 31 26 15.9 10.7 8.2 6.5 115 121 0.0 29.2 2.7 6.3 232.6 12 BYD 1211 HK N HKD 33.45 20.00 (40) 12,900 13.9 0 1 30 105 44 0 0 25 91 46 Dec-12 556 16 17 764.6 116.5 100.4 85.6 53 40 0.0 2.5 2.9 1.7 15.6 67 Baoxin Auto 1293 HK O HKD 6.14 7.50 22 2,023 4.9 0 (2) (10) (2) (2) 0 (3) (14) (16) (0) Dec-12 72 26 21 17.1 9.9 7.9 6.5 90 83 0.1 27.8 2.4 0.4 5.9 75
China Zhengtong Auto 1728 HK O HKD 4.57 6.00 31 1,301 5.0 0 1 (13) (13) (15) 0 1 (17) (27) (13) Dec-12 44 28 18 13.2 9.1 7.1 6.1 91 86 0.0 12.3 1.1 0.3 5.6 50 Guangzhou Auto 2238 HK N HKD 7.74 5.75 (26) 7,570 7.3 0 5 23 21 13 0 4 19 6 15 Dec-12 142 12 11 34.3 14.2 12.7 11.5 107 89 1.8 8.6 1.2 3.6 nm 5 Greatwall Motor 2333 HK O HKD 36.55 46.00 26 17,634 30.0 0 3 9 151 49 0 2 5 136 51 Dec-12 32 14 10 15.4 11.7 10.3 9.4 106 104 1.4 31.6 3.3 1.7 9.9 (36)
Sector* (0) 68,344 0 1 11 66 23 0 1 7 52 25 Dec-12 32 15 13 17.3 13.2 11.4 10.1 100 96 1.0 16.4 2.0 1.0 8.9 4
Banks Sanjay Jain / Vincent Chan / Frances Feng - 852 2101 6088 / 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 6693
PAB 000001 CH N CNY 21.16 20.50 (3) 17,678 180.9 0 10 5 32 32 1 9 0 18 34 Dec-12 (18) 19 25 8.1 9.8 8.3 6.6 87 89 1.3 15.0 1.4 na na na NBCB 002142 CH N CNY 10.68 11.65 9 5,022 33.5 1 5 0 5 0 1 5 (4) (10) 2 Dec-12 12 14 14 7.6 6.7 5.9 5.2 97 96 2.3 19.0 1.2 na na na CCB 939 HK O HKD 6.46 7.51 16 207,731 200.9 0 (0) 4 23 4 0 (1) (0) 8 6 Dec-12 3 4 5 6.6 6.4 6.1 5.8 97 93 5.4 19.8 1.2 na na na
CNCB 998 HK N HKD 4.44 4.90 10 31,874 28.2 0 0 9 5 (3) 0 0 5 (10) (2) Dec-12 1 6 2 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 94 91 4.8 14.9 0.7 na na na ABC 1288 HK N HKD 3.74 4.11 10 147,156 66.7 0 (1) 6 16 (2) 0 (2) 2 2 (0) Dec-12 6 6 4 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.7 96 92 5.6 19.2 1.1 na na na ICBC 1398 HK O HKD 5.52 6.33 15 240,036 198.4 0 (1) 5 17 0 0 (1) 1 3 2 Dec-12 1 1 4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 96 90 5.5 20.0 1.2 na na na
BoCom 3328 HK N HKD 6.17 6.64 8 58,492 27.1 0 (0) 6 20 6 0 (0) 2 6 8 Dec-12 4 3 2 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 100 97 5.0 15.4 0.9 na na na Chongqing Rural 3618 HK N HKD 4.03 4.66 16 4,829 10.9 0 (0) (3) 27 (5) 0 (1) (7) 12 (3) Dec-12 3 10 2 5.5 5.4 4.9 4.8 96 95 5.6 16.3 0.8 na na na China Merchants Bk 3968 HK N HKD 16.70 18.03 8 48,716 38.9 0 (0) 9 12 (2) 0 (1) 4 (3) (0) Dec-12 3 8 6 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.3 105 104 4.9 21.4 1.2 na na na
BOC 3988 HK N HKD 3.77 4.05 7 134,995 151.9 0 (0) 8 31 9 0 (1) 3 16 11 Dec-12 (2) 0 0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 96 89 5.7 15.7 0.9 na na na NJCB 601009 CH N CNY 9.68 9.71 0 4,686 43.7 0 4 4 8 5 1 4 (0) (7) 7 Dec-12 6 1 3 7.2 6.8 6.7 6.5 92 86 4.1 16.2 1.0 na na na CIB 601166 CH N CNY 18.73 21.33 14 38,793 296.9 1 5 1 37 12 2 5 (3) 22 14 Dec-12 22 10 16 6.9 5.6 5.1 4.4 112 107 3.6 22.7 1.2 na na na
BOB 601169 CH O CNY 9.15 10.73 17 13,130 73.6 0 4 5 11 (2) 1 3 0 (3) 0 Dec-12 11 2 12 6.9 6.2 6.0 5.4 95 86 4.9 17.2 1.0 na na na Sector* 13 953,139 0 0 5 21 3 1 (0) 1 6 5 Dec-12 3 4 4 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 97 92 5.3 18.5 1.1 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Trina Chen - 852 2101 7031
Shanshui 691 HK N HKD 4.50 4.20 (7) 1,633 5.6 0 1 (3) (16) (21) 0 0 (7) (30) (19) Dec-12 (12) (6) 19 6.6 7.5 7.9 6.6 79 66 1.3 14.9 1.1 1.3 5.5 123
Anhui Conch 914 HK N HKD 27.10 23.30 (14) 18,504 44.3 0 (1) (6) 22 (4) 0 (1) (11) 7 (2) Dec-12 36 (1) 14 17.9 13.2 13.3 11.7 99 86 1.6 16.5 2.0 2.4 8.8 28 TCC International 1136 HK U HKD 2.14 1.70 (21) 909 0.9 0 (4) (6) (11) (4) 0 (5) (10) (25) (2) Dec-12 70 (11) (4) 11.6 6.8 7.7 8.0 91 69 2.9 6.5 0.4 1.3 5.6 68 CR Cement 1313 HK N HKD 4.30 4.30 0 3,612 12.7 0 (1) (6) (19) (15) 0 (1) (10) (34) (13) Dec-12 18 4 19 12.1 10.2 9.8 8.2 101 89 1.5 12.2 1.2 1.6 7.5 77
CNM 1893 HK N HKD 1.91 2.40 26 879 2.7 0 2 (6) (25) (20) 0 2 (10) (39) (18) Dec-12 17 18 (0) 11.4 9.7 8.2 8.2 86 84 1.0 4.8 0.5 0.6 4.8 84 BBMG 2009 HK O HKD 6.16 8.30 35 3,400 7.4 0 1 (3) 5 (13) 0 0 (7) (9) (11) Dec-12 12 15 1 7.0 6.3 5.4 5.4 107 100 1.6 13.6 0.8 1.2 7.6 83 WCC 2233 HK O HKD 1.31 1.80 37 768 2.4 0 0 (10) (28) (15) 0 (0) (14) (42) (13) Dec-12 115 31 17 12.5 5.8 4.4 3.8 128 134 1.7 15.8 0.9 1.4 4.4 49
CNBM 3323 HK U HKD 9.19 7.40 (19) 6,393 52.4 0 1 (9) 1 (19) 0 0 (13) (14) (17) Dec-12 28 (6) (1) 7.0 5.5 5.9 5.9 102 81 1.8 21.2 1.1 1.6 6.9 283 Sector* (7) 36,097 0 (0) (7) (2) (14) 0 (0) (11) (17) (12) Dec-12 25 (0) 7 9.5 7.6 7.6 7.1 99 84 1.7 14.9 1.0 1.5 7.0 116
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China—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Capital Goods Kenny Lau / Vincent Chan / Yang Song - 852 2101 7914 / 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 6550
Liugong 000528 CH U CNY 8.56 7.70 (10) 1,571 17.2 0 6 1 (33) (14) 0 5 (3) (47) (13) Dec-12 46 53 3 34.6 23.7 15.5 15.0 65 76 0.7 4.3 1.0 1.2 16.2 76 China High-Speed 658 HK U HKD 4.39 2.80 (36) 771 8.8 0 3 16 31 45 0 3 11 17 47 Dec-12 47 27 7 34.1 23.3 18.3 17.0 61 65 0.0 2.7 0.6 1.3 6.2 54 Dongfang Electric 1072 HK U HKD 13.80 11.00 (20) 4,186 7.4 0 5 27 (21) (12) 0 5 23 (36) (10) Dec-12 15 (25) 14 10.0 8.7 11.6 10.2 103 74 3.4 15.1 1.2 0.8 8.3 45
Harbin Power 1133 HK U HKD 6.63 6.20 (6) 577 3.7 0 2 17 (3) (0) 0 2 13 (17) 1 Dec-11 15 (18) (33) 5.9 5.1 6.3 9.4 100 100 1.9 12.5 0.6 0.7 7.6 110 Zoomlion 1157 HK N HKD 8.20 7.40 (10) 1,511 25.3 0 (0) 1 (21) (28) 0 (1) (3) (35) (26) Dec-12 (20) 29 7 6.8 8.5 6.6 6.2 82 93 3.1 13.7 1.1 0.0 0.1 (18) CSR 1766 HK U HKD 5.68 5.50 (3) 9,760 13.1 0 (1) 10 (8) (16) 0 (1) 6 (22) (14) Dec-11 (9) 5 8 13.8 15.1 14.4 13.3 100 95 2.0 14.4 1.8 0.8 10.2 28
Goldwind 2208 HK U HKD 6.01 3.00 (50) 2,864 3.0 0 14 35 80 82 0 13 31 66 84 Dec-11 (75) 161 2 21.1 83.6 32.1 31.4 100 111 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.5 20.3 (6) Shanghai Prime 2345 HK N HKD 1.00 0.96 (4) 185 0.5 0 0 4 (12) (12) 0 (0) (0) (27) (10) Dec-12 (19) 28 18 9.0 11.1 8.7 7.4 100 100 2.3 3.2 0.3 0.3 3.4 (2) SEG 2727 HK N HKD 2.98 3.20 7 7,438 8.9 0 (1) 10 (11) (10) 0 (1) 6 (25) (8) Dec-12 3 (12) 43 11.1 10.8 12.3 8.6 88 71 2.8 9.1 1.0 0.6 7.3 9
Lonking 3339 HK U HKD 1.81 1.40 (23) 998 9.4 0 5 10 (22) (11) 0 5 6 (36) (9) Dec-12 138 37 20 40.4 17.0 12.4 10.3 70 78 0.9 5.6 0.9 1.1 9.3 67 Times Electric 3898 HK U HKD 26.00 20.30 (22) 3,632 9.4 0 4 20 23 (9) 0 4 16 8 (8) Dec-12 4 2 5 18.2 17.6 17.2 16.5 100 88 1.8 18.6 3.0 2.4 14.0 (38) Sany Heavy 600031 CH U CNY 9.77 8.70 (11) 12,134 70.2 0 7 (6) (32) (8) 0 7 (11) (47) (6) Dec-12 (14) 37 1 12.9 14.9 10.9 10.8 68 85 1.1 19.8 2.7 1.8 9.5 19
TBEA 600089 CH N CNY 8.72 6.80 (22) 4,075 38.6 6 18 26 12 35 6 18 22 (3) 37 Dec-12 14 13 20 23.4 20.5 18.1 15.1 90 85 0.2 7.9 1.6 0.8 9.4 (41) Pinggao Electric 600312 CH O CNY 11.87 11.60 (2) 1,585 21.1 0 7 22 40 63 0 6 18 26 65 Dec-12 139 14 8 71.8 30.1 26.4 24.4 100 71 0.0 10.7 3.0 2.1 15.6 (18) Tianwei Baobian 600550 CH U CNY 7.11 3.50 (51) 1,592 11.3 0 0 7 (28) 9 0 0 2 (42) 11 Dec-12 nm nm 971 nm nm 570.0 53.2 48 22 0.0 (15.0) 2.1 3.9 74.1 116
China XD 601179 CH N CNY 3.72 4.80 29 2,643 6.8 2 3 9 (8) 7 2 3 5 (23) 9 Dec-12 67 59 65 137.8 82.6 51.8 31.4 100 109 0.0 1.4 1.1 0.7 11.3 (40) CNR 601299 CH N CNY 4.52 4.30 (5) 7,606 34.3 1 3 9 5 0 1 3 5 (10) 2 Dec-11 (7) 6 8 12.6 13.4 12.7 11.8 102 98 2.3 11.3 1.3 0.6 9.0 29 China Ming Yang MY US U USD 1.99 0.90 (55) 242 0.1 0 38 69 12 66 0 38 64 (3) 68 Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 101 102 0.0 (11.1) 0.5 1.1 nm 65
Sector* (10) 63,371 1 5 11 (5) 1 1 4 7 (20) 3 Dec-12 7 11 14 16.5 15.4 13.9 12.0 85 83 1.7 10.0 1.4 0.8 8.3 19
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Kenny Lau / Eva Wang / Kevin Yin - 852 2101 7914 / 852 2101 7365 / 852 2101 7655
Skyworth 751 HK O HKD 5.22 5.90 13 1,886 14.1 0 (2) (16) 56 31 0 (2) (20) 41 33 Mar-12 18 15 13 11.0 9.3 8.1 7.2 99 94 3.7 17.0 1.5 0.4 7.0 20 TCL Multimedia 1070 HK O HKD 6.17 7.65 24 1,058 3.3 0 1 (11) 37 43 0 1 (15) 22 45 Dec-12 (5) 15 18 8.9 9.3 8.1 6.8 90 90 4.0 17.5 1.5 0.2 5.5 (3)
Stella 1836 HK O HKD 22.05 26.00 18 2,257 1.1 0 (4) (9) 12 5 0 (4) (13) (3) 7 Dec-12 8 13 17 14.7 13.6 12.1 10.3 105 106 5.1 17.4 2.3 1.2 10.1 (29) Belle 1880 HK O HKD 12.46 16.90 36 13,541 45.7 0 (4) (1) (6) (26) 0 (4) (6) (21) (24) Dec-12 6 17 16 19.1 18.0 15.4 13.3 95 96 1.6 19.2 3.2 2.2 13.1 (8) Peak Sport 1968 HK N HKD 1.39 1.50 8 376 0.6 0 (1) 3 (2) (8) 0 (1) (1) (17) (6) Dec-12 (8) 20 27 7.4 8.1 6.7 5.3 108 113 7.4 6.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 (53)
Anta Sports 2020 HK O HKD 7.47 8.30 11 2,401 6.1 0 2 15 24 9 0 2 11 9 11 Dec-12 (23) 6 11 10.9 14.1 13.3 12.0 104 107 5.0 15.3 2.1 1.9 8.7 (39) Shenzhou 2313 HK O HKD 24.40 25.20 3 4,181 5.6 0 7 17 72 39 0 7 13 57 41 Dec-12 24 19 15 15.5 12.6 10.5 9.2 103 103 3.2 23.4 2.7 2.2 8.6 (22) Li Ning 2331 HK U HKD 4.62 3.00 (35) 639 3.6 0 13 12 (28) (8) 0 13 8 (43) (6) Dec-12 nm nm 590 nm nm 99.3 14.4 65 283 0.0 (27.4) 3.1 1.0 nm 117
Texhong 2678 HK O HKD 9.80 7.00 (29) 1,117 1.0 0 0 11 213 103 0 (0) 7 198 105 Dec-12 20 22 23 14.1 11.7 9.6 7.9 93 87 3.4 21.6 2.4 0.9 7.8 52 Sector* 20 27,454 0 (1) 2 24 2 0 (1) (2) 9 4 Dec-12 25 19 18 18.5 14.8 12.4 11.0 97 98 2.8 17.2 2.4 1.1 10.0 (9)
Consumer Staples Vincent Chan / Eva Wang / Kevin Yin - 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 7365 / 852 2101 7655
Luzhou Laojiao 000568 CH O CNY 27.20 32.40 19 6,202 62.6 2 5 8 (38) (23) 2 5 3 (52) (21) Dec-12 12 8 13 8.7 7.7 7.1 6.3 101 98 9.1 45.1 3.1 2.2 4.3 (68) WLY 000858 CH N CNY 24.22 23.11 (5) 14,992 146.5 3 7 9 (30) (14) 4 6 5 (45) (12) Dec-12 7 3 11 9.3 8.6 8.4 7.6 97 88 3.6 30.5 2.4 1.8 3.5 (95)
Want Want 151 HK N HKD 12.26 12.00 (2) 20,896 22.2 0 2 3 27 15 0 2 (1) 12 17 Dec-12 20 18 17 37.7 31.4 26.5 22.7 101 98 2.2 39.3 11.6 4.9 21.0 (28) Tingyi 322 HK O HKD 20.75 24.00 16 14,956 17.2 0 3 3 2 (4) 0 3 (1) (12) (2) Dec-12 45 23 22 41.5 28.5 23.2 19.0 106 106 2.3 19.5 5.3 1.4 11.7 21 Hengan 1044 HK O HKD 88.75 85.00 (4) 14,081 27.8 0 5 13 12 27 0 5 9 (3) 29 Dec-12 19 23 21 31.0 26.0 21.2 17.5 102 105 2.5 27.3 6.6 4.8 16.6 (3)
China Modern Dairy 1117 HK O HKD 2.54 3.10 22 1,575 2.6 0 (4) 2 35 19 0 (4) (2) 20 21 Jun-12 43 41 37 24.2 17.0 12.0 8.7 125 126 0.0 10.6 1.7 4.6 15.8 43 Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK O HKD 26.90 30.00 12 6,175 18.5 0 10 23 21 22 0 10 19 6 24 Dec-12 22 34 25 29.9 24.4 18.2 14.5 97 107 1.6 11.9 2.8 0.9 12.2 (16) VINDA INT'L ORD 3331 HK O HKD 10.04 13.10 30 1,293 6.6 0 (1) (4) (19) (5) 0 (1) (9) (34) (3) Dec-12 27 30 26 18.3 14.4 11.1 8.8 107 111 1.7 15.5 2.1 1.6 10.0 45
Moutai 600519 CH N CNY 195.0 184.0 (6) 33,015 154.9 0 0 12 (15) (7) 0 (0) 8 (30) (5) Dec-11 52 15 12 23.1 15.2 13.2 11.8 100 91 3.3 45.0 5.9 6.8 9.4 (62) Fen Wine 600809 CH N CNY 28.10 30.54 9 3,967 41.5 0 6 (0) (26) (33) 0 6 (5) (41) (31) Dec-12 22 8 33 18.3 15.0 13.9 10.4 92 80 3.6 40.4 5.4 2.9 9.2 (50) Tenfu 6868 HK N HKD 4.00 4.40 10 632 0.2 0 (4) (4) (32) (11) 0 (5) (8) (46) (9) Dec-12 5 16 19 13.2 12.5 10.8 9.1 91 101 5.9 16.6 2.0 1.9 6.8 (16)
Sector* 2 117,785 0 3 9 (3) 1 1 3 5 (18) 3 Dec-12 16 13 18 18.0 15.5 13.7 11.7 97 93 3.2 30.5 4.4 2.6 9.0 (42)
Diversified Financials Sanjay Jain / Frances Feng - 852 2101 6088 / 852 2101 6693
China Minsheng 1988 HK U HKD 10.08 9.54 (5) 46,694 58.9 0 0 8 37 13 0 (0) 4 23 14 Dec-12 9 3 2 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.3 102 95 1.9 23.2 1.2 na na na Citic Securities (A) 600030 CH N CNY 12.80 14.86 16 22,790 30.3 0 4 0 (4) (4) 0 4 (4) (18) (2) Dec-12 36 21 15 33.3 24.4 20.2 17.6 100 97 2.8 6.6 1.6 na na na Haitong Securities (A) 600837 CH N CNY 11.43 12.50 9 17,267 24.6 0 7 5 12 12 0 7 1 (2) 13 Dec-12 28 16 12 32.8 25.6 22.1 19.7 103 106 1.4 6.4 1.6 na na na
Citic Securities (H) 6030 HK N HKD 17.58 18.50 5 22,790 30.3 0 4 5 17 (10) 0 3 1 2 (8) Dec-12 36 21 15 36.1 26.5 21.9 19.1 92 88 2.6 6.6 1.7 na na na Haitong Securities (H) 6837 HK O HKD 11.36 15.50 36 17,267 24.6 0 6 6 12 (15) 0 6 1 (3) (13) Dec-12 28 16 12 25.7 20.1 17.4 15.5 103 106 1.7 6.4 1.3 na na na Sector* 9 126,809 0 3 5 19 2 0 3 1 5 3 Dec-12 15 7 6 12.3 10.7 10.0 9.5 101 96 2.1 12.8 1.4 na na na
Energy David Hewitt / Horace Tse - 65 6212 3064 / 852 2101 7379
Sinopec 386 HK N HKD 8.60 8.90 3 99,639 99.9 0 0 1 20 (2) 0 (0) (3) 6 (0) Dec-12 26 4 (5) 9.2 7.3 7.1 7.5 108 107 5.5 15.2 1.0 0.3 4.6 49
PetroChina 857 HK N HKD 9.82 10.70 9 253,242 89.7 0 (2) 3 (4) (11) 0 (2) (1) (19) (9) Dec-12 12 8 (16) 12.3 11.0 10.3 12.3 95 96 4.1 11.7 1.2 0.9 5.6 41 CNOOC 883 HK O HKD 14.42 20.20 40 82,952 111.5 0 (0) 4 0 (14) 0 (0) (0) (15) (12) Dec-12 14 1 (15) 8.0 7.0 6.9 8.2 117 115 3.7 21.3 1.4 2.1 3.3 3 COSL 2883 HK N HKD 16.54 14.50 (12) 11,251 15.6 0 2 11 60 4 0 2 6 45 5 Dec-11 (7) 41 12 14.5 15.6 11.1 9.9 83 100 1.6 12.6 1.9 4.1 9.2 59
GDG GDG LN O GBp 1.96 7.30 272 406 0.1 0 (0) (1) (56) (26) 0 (0) (5) (71) (24) Dec-11 nm nm nm nm nm nm 35.0 100 50 0.0 (2.4) 0.6 5.4 nm 4 Sector* 12 447,490 0 (1) 3 4 (9) 0 (1) (1) (11) (7) Dec-12 17 5 (13) 10.5 9.0 8.6 9.9 103 103 4.3 14.3 1.2 0.6 4.9 37
Global Services Jennifer Gao - 852 2101 6479
New Oriental Education EDU US O USD 20.17 22.70 13 3,195 5.8 0 7 13 (26) 4 0 6 8 (40) 6 May-12 7 33 30 23.8 22.2 16.7 12.8 107 102 1.4 20.6 4.2 2.6 15.2 (75) TAL XRS US O USD 9.80 13.60 39 730 0.2 0 5 6 (10) 2 0 5 1 (25) 4 Feb-12 43 30 28 31.5 22.0 16.9 13.2 84 103 5.1 17.6 3.7 2.1 13.2 (110)
Sector* 17 3,925 0 6 11 (23) 3 0 6 7 (37) 5 Dec-12 25 32 28 22.9 18.4 14.1 11.2 103 101 1.7 21.6 3.6 2.0 11.2 (90)
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China—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Healthcare Jinsong Du / Iris Wang - 852 2101 6589 / 852 2101 7646
Sihuan Pharma 460 HK U HKD 4.69 3.00 (36) 3,127 5.9 0 0 5 78 38 0 0 1 64 40 Dec-11 12 12 13 23.3 20.7 18.5 16.3 102 94 1.4 12.7 2.5 4.9 11.7 (57) Microport 853 HK N HKD 5.93 5.50 (7) 1,076 1.8 0 11 24 72 46 0 10 20 58 48 Dec-12 (4) 29 32 19.0 19.9 15.5 11.7 92 108 0.0 12.9 2.3 4.8 10.7 (59) CMS 867 HK O HKD 7.50 9.00 20 2,334 3.1 0 3 (3) 117 25 0 2 (7) 103 27 Dec-12 27 33 28 27.4 21.7 16.2 12.7 101 103 1.2 22.0 4.4 6.1 18.6 (12)
Shandong Weigao 1066 HK U HKD 8.12 6.70 (17) 4,683 12.4 0 7 23 2 5 0 6 19 (13) 7 Dec-12 16 21 14 28.0 24.1 19.8 17.3 99 102 0.8 13.0 3.0 6.0 20.4 (27) Sinopharm 1099 HK O HKD 22.20 28.00 26 2,369 13.6 0 (4) (10) 23 (8) 0 (4) (14) 8 (7) Dec-12 20 17 18 21.4 17.8 15.2 12.9 102 98 1.7 12.8 2.0 0.1 2.8 16 Sino Biopharm 1177 HK N HKD 4.77 4.90 3 3,037 7.4 0 (9) (12) 101 29 0 (10) (16) 87 31 Dec-12 16 17 17 26.5 22.8 19.5 16.7 95 93 1.2 20.7 4.4 2.0 9.8 (48)
Shanghai Pharma 2607 HK N HKD 15.20 16.00 5 5,354 4.5 0 (1) (7) 26 3 0 (2) (12) 12 5 Dec-12 11 14 17 16.0 14.4 12.6 10.8 99 98 1.7 8.9 1.2 0.3 6.6 (34) Mindray Medical MR US N USD 41.48 33.50 (19) 4,907 25.1 0 6 7 32 27 0 5 3 17 29 Dec-12 9 13 12 23.5 21.5 19.0 17.0 98 100 1.2 15.5 2.9 3.8 15.2 (17) WuXi PharmaTech WX US O USD 20.73 21.60 4 1,459 1.3 0 (2) 19 48 32 0 (2) 14 34 34 Dec-12 10 14 17 14.8 13.4 11.7 10.0 103 105 0.0 18.3 2.2 2.3 9.1 (17)
Sector* (5) 28,347 0 1 4 47 18 0 1 (1) 32 20 Dec-12 12 18 18 21.1 18.8 16.0 13.5 98 99 1.2 12.9 2.3 0.6 8.3 (19)
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Kevin Yin / Vivian Zhao - 852 2101 7655 / 852 2101 7472
Ajisen China 538 HK N HKD 6.19 6.43 4 868 2.3 0 5 7 (16) (16) 0 5 3 (30) (14) Dec-12 82 23 29 43.1 23.6 19.2 14.9 134 130 1.4 9.1 2.1 1.4 8.5 (57) Home Inns HMIN US O USD 30.33 38.30 26 1,398 2.0 0 5 15 39 5 0 5 11 24 7 Dec-12 62 38 28 28.1 17.3 12.6 9.8 128 136 0.0 11.7 1.9 1.5 8.0 27
China Lodging HTHT US O USD 16.37 20.00 22 1,014 0.5 0 7 7 39 (4) 0 6 3 25 (2) Dec-12 14 30 27 35.4 31.2 23.9 18.8 90 90 0.0 7.8 2.3 1.4 9.0 (14) 7 Days Group SVN US O USD 13.68 20.00 46 672 0.5 0 1 1 40 13 0 0 (3) 25 15 Dec-12 28 44 22 24.1 18.9 13.1 10.7 100 183 0.0 12.7 2.2 1.3 5.8 (6) Sector* 24 3,951 0 5 9 27 (1) 0 4 5 13 1 Dec-12 47 35 27 31.1 21.2 15.8 12.4 115 131 0.3 10.4 2.1 1.4 7.7 (7)
Insurance Arjan van Veen / Frances Feng - 852 2101 7508 / 852 2101 6693
China Taiping 966 HK R HKD 12.74 2,800 5.2 0 2 (3) (11) (19) 0 2 (7) (25) (17) Dec-12 66 25 25 23.2 13.9 11.2 8.9 98 96 0.0 10.5 1.4 na na na
NCI (H) 1336 HK N HKD 29.15 32.00 10 12,450 13.0 0 2 8 3 (1) 0 2 4 (12) 1 Dec-12 64 14 30 24.5 14.9 13.0 10.0 106 99 0.8 12.9 1.8 na na na PICC Group 1339 HK U HKD 4.01 4.10 2 21,920 57.6 0 (3) 3 na 3 0 (4) (2) na 4 Dec-12 28 25 20 17.8 13.9 11.1 9.2 104 110 1.7 14.4 1.9 na na na Ping An (H) 2318 HK O HKD 60.85 83.00 36 56,219 203.6 0 0 2 6 (6) 0 0 (2) (9) (4) Dec-12 20 10 11 19.0 15.8 14.5 13.0 84 80 1.4 13.1 1.9 na na na
PICC P&C 2328 HK O HKD 9.94 13.50 36 15,697 24.4 0 (2) 5 18 (8) 0 (2) 0 4 (7) Dec-12 (13) 8 11 9.3 10.6 9.8 8.8 84 85 1.9 18.8 1.9 na na na China Pacific (H) 2601 HK O HKD 28.60 37.50 31 29,982 49.3 0 2 5 26 (0) 0 2 1 12 2 Dec-12 130 12 24 39.2 17.1 15.3 12.3 118 113 2.1 11.9 1.9 na na na China Life (H) 2628 HK N HKD 21.65 24.00 11 78,007 106.0 0 0 7 18 (14) 0 (0) 2 3 (13) Dec-12 257 21 20 43.7 12.3 10.2 8.4 135 139 2.1 17.1 2.0 na na na
Ping An (A) 601318 CH O CNY 40.59 68.00 68 56,219 203.6 0 5 (3) (5) (10) 1 5 (7) (19) (8) Dec-12 20 10 11 16.0 13.4 12.2 11.0 91 86 1.7 13.1 1.6 na na na NCI (A) 601336 CH N CNY 25.19 25.50 1 12,450 13.0 1 8 3 (25) (13) 2 8 (2) (40) (11) Dec-12 64 14 30 26.8 16.3 14.3 10.9 118 108 0.8 12.9 2.0 na na na China Pacific (A) 601601 CH O CNY 19.27 30.00 56 29,982 49.3 0 4 (2) (10) (14) 0 4 (6) (25) (12) Dec-12 130 12 24 33.5 14.6 13.0 10.5 131 120 2.4 11.9 1.7 na na na
China Life (A) 601628 CH N CNY 16.86 19.25 14 78,007 106.0 0 4 (2) (5) (21) 0 3 (6) (20) (19) Dec-12 257 21 20 43.1 12.1 10.0 8.3 150 152 2.1 17.1 2.0 na na na Sector* 22 229,525 0 1 5 12 (8) 1 0 0 (3) (6) Dec-12 73 16 19 24.1 13.9 12.0 10.0 108 108 1.7 14.6 1.9 na na na
Media Wallace Cheung - 852 2101 7090
Charm Communication CHRM US O USD 5.70 6.50 14 222 0.0 0 16 40 (30) 41 0 16 35 (44) 43 Dec-11 (92) 399 31 5.1 63.9 12.8 9.8 892 160 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.7 38.8 (43) Focus Media FMCN US R USD 27.43 3,623 9.9 0 1 2 29 7 0 0 (2) 15 9 Dec-11 37 2 9 16.2 11.8 11.5 10.6 93 82 4.9 17.1 2.4 3.2 10.1 (31)
Sector* 14 3,845 0 2 4 26 9 0 1 (0) 11 11 Dec-12 8 12 26 12.3 11.6 10.5 8.6 85 82 4.8 14.7 2.2 2.5 8.0 (33)
Metals & Mining Trina Chen / Vincent Chan / Frankie Zhu / Owen Liang - 852 2101 7031 / 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 7426 / 852 2101 6093
Lingnan 000060 CH N CNY 9.29 8.60 (7) 3,125 30.5 1 8 3 (1) 3 1 8 (1) (16) 5 Dec-12 12 76 31 44.3 39.7 22.5 17.2 80 112 0.6 8.3 3.2 1.2 10.7 50 CZ Mining 002155 CH N CNY 11.62 13.62 17 1,888 31.2 (0) 3 (3) (25) (25) 0 2 (7) (39) (23) Dec-12 (13) 14 14 21.5 24.7 21.6 18.9 87 87 1.4 15.3 3.6 2.3 15.1 4 Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten
002378 CH U CNY 23.90 15.90 (33) 1,669 9.0 6 10 14 (24) (2) 6 9 9 (39) 0 Dec-12 73 28 31 77.7 45.0 35.0 26.8 92 87 0.4 15.4 6.5 5.2 23.8 26
Tianqi 002466 CH N CNY 42.23 29.20 (31) 1,012 10.9 1 7 22 34 31 1 7 18 19 33 Dec-12 74 96 10 148.7 85.3 43.5 39.6 100 131 0.4 7.0 5.8 11.8 47.2 (31) Maanshan 323 HK U HKD 1.93 1.60 (17) 1,915 6.6 0 1 (6) 5 (18) 0 1 (11) (9) (16) Dec-12 nm nm 117 nm nm 15.7 7.2 227 154 0.0 (0.6) 0.5 0.4 6.4 74
Angang Steel 347 HK U HKD 4.68 3.20 (32) 4,054 9.8 0 (3) (4) 10 (18) 0 (3) (8) (5) (16) Dec-12 nm 71 693 nm 153.0 89.6 11.3 27 24 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 9.2 68 Jiangxi Copper 358 HK O HKD 15.66 18.90 21 6,987 25.4 0 1 3 (4) (23) 0 1 (1) (18) (21) Dec-12 (11) (2) (9) 8.3 9.3 9.6 10.5 96 97 3.2 10.4 0.9 0.2 5.3 (2) Fushan 639 HK N HKD 3.15 3.10 (2) 2,152 9.8 0 3 (2) 23 11 0 3 (6) 8 12 Dec-12 (12) 7 4 9.4 10.7 10.0 9.7 106 111 4.2 7.9 0.8 1.8 3.3 (28)
G-Resources 1051 HK N HKD 0.34 0.33 (3) 817 1.5 0 (3) (6) (22) (8) 0 (3) (10) (37) (6) Jun-12 nm 138 (8) nm 12.6 5.3 5.7 172 91 0.0 7.5 0.9 2.8 5.9 (5) China Shenhua 1088 HK O HKD 27.05 39.70 47 69,322 68.7 0 1 3 (5) (20) 0 0 (1) (20) (18) Dec-12 0 23 25 8.7 8.7 7.0 5.6 103 120 4.0 18.0 1.5 1.6 4.5 (3) Yanzhou Coal 1171 HK U HKD 8.54 6.60 (23) 5,412 39.8 0 9 (3) (36) (33) 0 9 (7) (51) (31) Dec-12 (58) 26 (4) 5.3 12.8 10.1 10.6 83 95 2.3 5.6 0.7 1.4 7.9 75
Hidili 1393 HK U HKD 1.71 1.10 (36) 457 2.5 0 2 (5) (26) (16) 0 2 (9) (40) (14) Dec-12 nm 237 44 nm 27.9 8.3 5.7 373 207 0.7 1.4 0.4 5.0 11.6 93 Winsway 1733 HK U HKD 0.71 0.70 (1) 345 1.1 0 4 (10) (50) (45) 0 4 (14) (64) (43) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 21.9 nm nm 0.0 (5.9) 0.5 0.5 9.3 61 Zhaojin 1818 HK O HKD 7.52 14.50 93 2,874 9.2 0 (6) (10) (22) (38) 0 (6) (14) (36) (36) Dec-12 (5) (10) (12) 9.2 9.7 10.7 12.2 102 96 4.1 20.3 1.9 3.1 7.2 60
China Coal 1898 HK O HKD 5.54 9.60 73 9,464 27.5 0 6 (13) (25) (34) 0 6 (17) (40) (32) Dec-12 (4) 12 3 6.6 6.9 6.1 6.0 112 115 3.6 9.5 0.6 1.2 6.3 38 CGG 2099 HK N HKD 20.90 24.30 16 1,067 0.4 0 (5) (8) (19) (24) 0 (5) (12) (33) (22) Dec-11 (11) (18) (2) 13.4 15.0 18.3 18.7 100 101 0.0 5.4 0.8 3.3 7.9 2 Chalco 2600 HK O HKD 3.22 4.00 24 5,611 9.6 0 4 12 (3) (9) 0 3 8 (17) (7) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 53 35 0.0 (18.3) 0.9 1.0 132.3 255
HNC 2626 HK N HKD 2.32 2.50 8 1,096 2.0 0 1 1 10 (23) 0 1 (3) (4) (21) Dec-12 (58) nm 44 nm nm 34.0 23.6 38 104 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.7 11.6 228 Zijin Mining 2899 HK O HKD 2.19 3.30 51 6,155 16.0 0 (2) (4) (13) (28) 0 (2) (8) (28) (26) Dec-12 (13) (4) (1) 7.2 8.4 8.7 8.8 94 94 4.8 15.4 1.2 1.2 5.8 39 Lingbao 3330 HK U HKD 2.15 2.00 (7) 213 0.2 0 (5) (14) (43) (32) 0 (6) (18) (58) (30) Dec-12 (1) 3 (28) 7.9 8.0 7.8 10.7 116 120 4.1 6.6 0.5 0.7 6.3 133
YITAI COAL ORD 3948 HK O HKD 39.65 53.00 34 8,312 0.9 0 (5) (5) na (12) 0 (5) (9) na (10) Dec-12 (3) 30 29 7.5 7.7 5.9 4.6 106 117 3.9 30.0 2.1 1.4 4.5 (2) CMOC 3993 HK O HKD 3.15 4.20 33 2,060 3.7 0 2 1 8 (7) 0 2 (3) (7) (5) Dec-12 (7) 7 20 12.0 13.0 12.1 10.1 86 90 2.3 8.5 1.1 2.3 9.5 1 Baosteel 600019 CH N CNY 4.98 4.30 (14) 13,904 22.8 0 1 3 3 2 0 1 (1) (12) 4 Dec-12 (34) 10 27 8.4 12.7 11.5 9.0 98 92 3.2 6.1 0.8 0.7 6.9 22
Baotou Rare Earth 600111 CH U CNY 28.70 18.50 (36) 11,335 196.7 0 3 2 (36) (23) 0 3 (2) (50) (21) Dec-12 (23) 11 8 46.0 60.1 54.0 50.1 64 63 0.5 16.4 9.4 8.5 27.2 (47) Zhongjin 600489 CH N CNY 12.15 13.50 11 5,831 56.5 0 3 (4) (20) (27) 0 2 (8) (35) (25) Dec-12 (1) 0 (14) 23.0 23.3 23.1 27.0 82 78 1.3 14.6 3.2 1.0 8.8 11 Chihong 600497 CH O CNY 12.00 13.30 11 3,263 22.0 1 5 3 (21) (11) 1 5 (1) (36) (9) Dec-12 44 58 33 57.5 39.9 25.2 18.9 111 144 1.0 8.8 2.6 1.5 10.8 92
Shanjin 600547 CH O CNY 32.13 37.30 16 7,456 80.0 0 0 0 (6) (16) 0 (0) (4) (21) (14) Dec-12 (9) 5 1 21.1 23.2 22.1 21.9 80 77 1.5 23.9 5.2 0.9 11.3 25
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China—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Metals & Mining Trina Chen / Vincent Chan / Frankie Zhu / Owen Liang - 852 2101 7031 / 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 7426 / 852 2101 6093
Xiamen Tungsten 600549 CH N CNY 33.82 36.70 9 3,761 57.0 0 5 5 (28) (13) 0 5 0 (42) (11) Dec-12 44 16 40 43.8 30.4 26.3 18.7 106 100 0.8 18.4 5.2 2.4 12.1 29 JDC 601958 CH N CNY 10.70 11.30 6 5,630 22.1 (1) 5 3 (24) (9) (0) 5 (2) (39) (7) Dec-12 7 50 37 66.1 61.9 41.3 30.3 70 101 1.0 4.3 2.6 3.5 26.5 (33) Sector* 23 187,189 0 2 2 (10) (17) 1 1 (2) (24) (15) Dec-12 2 21 24 13.1 12.9 10.7 8.7 97 107 2.8 10.3 1.4 1.1 7.1 31
Paper & Forest Products Kenny Lau - 852 2101 7914
Sateri 1768 HK N HKD 1.70 2.05 21 749 0.1 0 (2) (3) (12) (3) 0 (3) (7) (27) (1) Dec-12 (7) 116 29 13.5 14.4 6.7 5.2 101 99 1.5 3.0 0.4 1.8 6.8 32
Real Estate Jinsong Du / Vincent Chan / Duo Chen - 852 2101 6589 / 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 7350
China Vanke (A) 000002 CH O CNY 12.10 14.30 18 19,100 168.3 1 7 4 34 20 1 7 (1) 20 21 Dec-12 16 9 3 10.5 9.1 8.3 8.1 96 86 1.6 20.9 1.7 1.2 5.6 22 CMPD 000024 CH O CNY 29.58 32.92 11 6,647 68.9 2 12 10 23 (1) 3 12 5 8 1 Dec-12 26 26 27 15.3 12.1 9.6 7.6 93 98 0.9 16.4 1.8 1.2 4.9 (8) Financial Street 000402 CH N CNY 6.15 6.61 7 3,036 27.7 0 5 4 (9) (9) 1 5 (1) (24) (7) Dec-12 18 14 13 8.2 6.9 6.1 5.4 103 99 5.0 12.8 0.8 1.7 11.2 49
RiseSun 002146 CH O CNY 15.59 16.76 8 4,758 32.8 2 14 5 38 11 2 14 1 23 13 Dec-12 31 31 28 13.6 10.4 7.9 6.2 99 102 1.4 31.5 3.0 1.9 8.3 40 Poly (HK) 119 HK O HKD 5.45 5.70 5 2,559 12.0 0 3 1 64 (10) 0 3 (3) 50 (8) Dec-12 13 11 8 8.6 7.6 6.8 6.3 97 91 2.6 9.3 0.7 2.0 8.9 84 China Overseas Land 688 HK N HKD 24.00 20.50 (15) 25,273 64.9 0 5 2 53 4 0 4 (2) 39 6 Dec-12 13 14 10 12.4 11.0 9.7 8.8 94 91 0.0 18.9 1.9 2.7 7.3 22
Hopefluent 733 HK O HKD 2.75 3.90 42 170 0.3 0 (0) 5 42 3 0 (1) 1 27 5 Dec-12 25 12 8 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.6 100 100 5.5 17.1 0.9 0.4 2.3 (37) Shimao Property 813 HK O HKD 17.12 19.20 12 7,660 19.8 0 3 2 74 17 0 3 (2) 60 19 Dec-12 33 23 14 10.7 8.0 6.5 5.7 96 100 3.7 15.5 1.2 1.9 6.4 57 Franshion PPT 817 HK O HKD 2.86 3.80 33 3,376 2.6 0 3 9 37 3 0 3 5 22 4 Dec-12 51 22 11 12.1 8.0 6.6 6.0 113 112 2.5 13.1 1.0 2.1 6.2 42
Glorious 845 HK N HKD 1.24 1.90 53 1,245 1.9 0 2 (4) 12 (15) 0 2 (8) (3) (13) Dec-12 90 24 17 10.9 5.7 4.6 4.0 91 87 0.0 7.1 0.4 2.0 6.8 61 CR Land 1109 HK O HKD 23.90 24.60 3 17,950 29.1 0 4 4 75 13 0 4 (1) 61 15 Dec-12 20 25 22 19.2 16.0 12.8 10.5 94 94 1.9 12.0 1.8 3.0 10.1 43 Kaisa 1638 HK O HKD 2.40 3.00 25 1,518 6.6 0 1 (3) 62 0 0 1 (7) 48 2 Dec-12 36 26 6 6.4 4.7 3.8 3.6 90 90 0.0 14.3 0.6 1.2 4.5 60
KWG Property 1813 HK N HKD 5.45 5.80 6 2,032 6.0 0 1 5 33 (6) 0 1 1 18 (4) Dec-12 20 13 8 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.4 100 96 4.7 14.4 0.7 1.7 6.1 58 China Vanke (B) 200002 CH O HKD 16.71 17.80 7 2,831 5.7 (0) (1) 3 75 34 (0) (1) (2) 60 36 Dec-12 27 9 8 11.6 9.1 8.3 7.7 105 94 0.0 22.6 1.9 0.3 1.3 22 Country Garden 2007 HK O HKD 4.38 4.30 (2) 10,288 14.5 0 2 2 62 8 0 2 (2) 48 10 Dec-12 27 20 7 9.3 7.4 6.1 5.7 110 112 2.0 19.5 1.3 1.6 5.6 42
Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK N HKD 14.42 13.70 (5) 5,987 13.3 0 2 (0) 49 12 0 2 (4) 34 14 Dec-12 2 6 7 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.3 95 89 4.9 18.2 1.2 1.7 5.2 81 Evergrande 3333 HK N HKD 3.30 5.20 58 6,815 48.4 0 1 4 (15) (22) 0 1 (0) (30) (20) Dec-12 46 12 10 6.4 4.4 3.9 3.6 116 111 4.6 22.8 0.9 0.9 4.7 84 Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK O HKD 5.13 5.60 9 3,877 6.8 0 2 (2) 64 (11) 0 2 (6) 50 (9) Dec-12 12 26 13 12.9 11.5 9.1 8.0 79 81 2.9 8.9 1.0 1.3 6.4 40
Agile Property 3383 HK U HKD 9.80 9.50 (3) 4,353 15.1 0 (1) (3) 18 (10) 0 (1) (7) 3 (8) Dec-12 (2) 12 3 5.8 6.0 5.3 5.2 92 93 4.1 18.6 1.0 1.4 4.8 65 Greentown China 3900 HK N HKD 14.84 8.50 (43) 4,117 10.3 0 1 (5) 188 5 0 0 (9) 173 6 Dec-11 15 (2) 17 8.2 7.2 7.3 6.2 69 67 4.2 22.0 1.6 1.7 6.8 80 Poly Real Estate 600048 CH O CNY 12.40 15.40 24 14,433 136.3 1 7 1 11 (9) 1 7 (4) (4) (7) Dec-12 29 30 29 10.5 8.1 6.3 4.8 102 104 2.0 23.2 1.7 1.3 6.5 47
Gemdale 600383 CH O CNY 7.70 8.94 16 5,614 83.4 0 9 5 20 10 0 8 1 5 12 Dec-12 15 19 14 10.2 8.9 7.5 6.6 103 98 1.9 16.0 1.4 0.9 5.7 8 Shanghai Shimao 600823 CH O CNY 10.33 14.22 38 1,972 11.9 0 6 3 (15) (12) 0 6 (2) (30) (10) Dec-12 21 21 19 8.9 7.3 6.1 5.1 102 101 0.0 12.3 0.8 1.7 6.2 13 E-House China EJ US O USD 4.93 6.00 22 591 0.2 0 1 5 (7) 20 0 1 1 (21) 22 Dec-12 nm 19 33 nm 13.8 11.6 8.8 101 87 2.2 6.7 0.9 0.7 8.5 (21)
Sector* 9 156,201 0 5 3 45 5 1 5 (2) 31 7 Dec-12 21 18 14 10.4 8.6 7.3 6.4 98 96 2.0 17.5 1.4 1.4 5.7 40
Retailing Eva Wang / Kevin Yin / Vivian Zhao - 852 2101 7365 / 852 2101 7655 / 852 2101 7472
Gome 493 HK U HKD 0.81 0.80 (1) 1,761 13.5 0 0 3 (37) (12) 0 (0) (2) (52) (10) Dec-12 nm 92 42 nm 27.6 14.4 10.1 80 99 0.0 2.8 0.8 0.2 22.7 (7) Sparkle Roll 970 HK N HKD 0.54 0.57 6 207 0.6 0 (7) (23) 20 (22) 0 (7) (27) 5 (20) Mar-12 (42) 38 35 7.5 13.0 9.4 7.0 101 101 1.9 8.2 1.0 0.6 9.8 9 Springland 1700 HK O HKD 3.77 5.31 41 1,214 2.3 0 (7) (6) (25) (9) 0 (7) (10) (40) (7) Dec-12 11 16 23 11.4 10.3 8.9 7.2 100 104 4.4 15.4 1.5 1.7 5.8 (1)
INTIME 1833 HK O HKD 8.10 12.00 48 2,102 8.6 0 2 (10) (5) (11) 0 1 (15) (20) (9) Dec-12 17 14 17 13.2 11.3 9.9 8.4 110 112 3.6 15.1 1.7 3.8 9.2 46 Golden Eagle 3308 HK O HKD 12.22 17.35 42 2,988 9.6 0 2 (11) (31) (36) 0 1 (15) (46) (34) Dec-12 14 18 21 15.4 13.5 11.5 9.5 103 106 2.0 23.9 3.0 4.1 8.5 (29) Parkson 3368 HK U HKD 3.63 3.48 (4) 1,315 3.5 0 (12) (16) (53) (42) 0 (12) (20) (67) (40) Dec-12 5 4 14 9.5 9.0 8.7 7.6 108 103 5.0 15.3 1.3 1.0 3.5 (47)
Sector* 28 9,587 0 (2) (9) (28) (23) 0 (2) (13) (42) (21) Dec-12 45 21 22 18.4 12.7 10.5 8.7 102 105 2.7 11.9 1.5 0.7 8.0 (5)
Small Cap Companies Eva Wang - 852 2101 7365
Huabao Intl 336 HK N HKD 3.92 4.40 12 1,566 6.8 0 (0) 10 6 2 0 (1) 6 (9) 4 Mar-12 (3) 4 9 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.4 97 94 4.1 24.6 1.7 2.8 4.7 (26) Haitian 1882 HK N HKD 13.50 10.60 (21) 2,776 3.1 0 (0) 7 62 46 0 (0) 3 47 48 Dec-12 5 10 12 17.3 16.4 15.0 13.4 92 88 2.2 18.2 2.8 2.1 10.8 (42) Sector* (9) 4,343 0 (0) 8 41 30 0 (0) 4 27 32 Dec-12 3 10 12 11.7 11.2 10.4 13.4 93 93 2.9 20.4 2.1 2.3 7.1 (35)
Technology Randy Abrams / Vincent Chan / Thompson Wu / Wallace Cheung / Yan Taw Boon - 886 2 2715 6366 / 852 2101 6568 / 886 2 2715 6386 / 852 2101 7090 / 852 2101 7039
YGSoft 002063 CH O CNY 16.96 19.50 15 1,277 9.5 (1) 6 14 22 16 (1) 6 10 7 18 Dec-12 34 26 22 26.1 19.4 15.4 12.6 102 102 1.3 27.5 4.6 6.2 16.1 (77)
Mesnac 002073 CH O CNY 9.86 13.00 32 1,194 27.1 (1) 7 14 (16) 30 (1) 6 10 (31) 32 Dec-11 68 8 21 16.0 9.5 8.8 7.3 369 144 2.9 23.5 2.0 2.8 10.7 21 Glodon 002410 CH U CNY 26.55 21.00 (21) 1,788 6.8 (5) 5 12 32 55 (4) 5 8 17 57 Dec-12 49 21 21 34.8 23.4 19.4 16.1 113 107 2.2 20.9 4.6 8.4 33.4 0 Tencent 700 HK O HKD 304.0 301.0 (1) 72,407 146.1 0 11 19 44 22 0 11 15 30 24 Dec-11 22 26 44 43.8 35.9 28.6 19.9 98 96 0.5 36.0 10.8 9.9 24.4 (23)
ZTE 763 HK O HKD 13.10 15.70 20 6,915 14.9 0 (3) 7 (16) 0 0 (3) 2 (31) 2 Dec-12 nm 16 12 nm 14.1 12.1 10.9 123 110 0.0 11.0 1.4 0.5 8.0 23 Digital China 861 HK O HKD 11.42 15.00 31 1,609 8.7 0 10 16 (13) (14) 1 9 10 (35) (16) Mar-12 14 17 10 9.9 8.7 7.4 6.7 103 107 3.8 19.3 1.6 0.2 8.5 10 SMIC 981 HK O HKD 0.63 0.68 8 2,602 8.6 0 (3) 24 85 64 0 (3) 19 71 66 Dec-12 292 43 24 145.1 37.0 26.0 20.9 55 52 0.0 3.0 1.1 1.5 4.4 26
AAC 2018 HK O HKD 43.30 47.50 10 6,851 20.1 0 (0) 20 79 60 0 (0) 16 64 62 Dec-12 42 27 17 23.8 16.8 13.3 11.3 103 107 2.7 36.7 5.6 4.5 13.1 (5) Comba 2342 HK U HKD 2.85 2.40 (16) 560 6.9 0 (2) 19 (25) 2 0 (2) 15 (39) 4 Dec-12 nm 7 5 nm 20.0 18.7 17.8 67 52 1.5 5.6 1.1 0.7 10.3 6 Sunny Optical 2382 HK N HKD 11.10 10.50 (5) 1,430 6.1 0 (4) 20 353 119 0 (4) 16 338 121 Dec-12 58 35 25 24.4 15.4 11.4 9.1 113 114 1.9 24.9 3.5 1.3 11.2 1
East Money 300059 CH O CNY 11.28 9.38 (17) 1,236 16.9 (6) 1 29 53 141 (5) 0 25 39 142 Dec-10 44 46 42 75.7 52.7 36.0 25.3 136 570 0.6 5.8 3.0 20.4 67.0 (88) Aisino 600271 CH O CNY 14.84 22.00 48 2,235 31.3 (2) 8 8 (25) 0 (2) 8 4 (39) 2 Dec-12 26 21 19 13.5 10.7 8.9 7.5 107 115 3.7 21.8 2.2 0.8 7.6 4 Hundsun 600570 CH O CNY 13.94 15.00 8 1,418 11.7 0 6 18 (2) 24 0 6 14 (16) 26 Dec-12 59 42 37 43.5 27.3 19.3 14.0 95 106 1.1 21.5 5.4 6.6 39.5 (15)
Youyon 600588 CH N CNY 10.89 11.00 1 1,703 25.8 0 7 16 (31) 10 0 7 12 (46) 12 Dec-12 43 37 19 28.1 19.6 14.3 12.0 88 99 1.8 16.7 3.1 1.9 20.0 (29)
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China—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Technology Randy Abrams / Vincent Chan / Thompson Wu / Wallace Cheung / Yan Taw Boon - 886 2 2715 6366 / 852 2101 6568 / 886 2 2715 6386 / 852 2101 7090 / 852 2101 7039
Baidu BIDU US U USD 99.03 80.00 (19) 34,589 85.0 0 6 16 (17) (1) 0 6 11 (32) 1 Dec-12 10 8 12 20.3 18.4 17.0 15.2 107 92 0.0 36.2 5.6 6.3 13.1 (55) Changyou CYOU US R USD 31.53 1,672 1.3 0 4 8 44 20 0 4 4 29 22 Dec-11 22 (14) (10) 7.3 6.0 7.0 7.7 99 77 12.1 50.5 2.8 2.4 4.1 (32) E-commerce China DANG US N USD 6.48 5.30 (18) 533 0.5 0 31 74 14 56 0 31 70 (0) 58 Dec-11 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 99 88 0.0 (56.4) 4.8 0.5 nm (133)
NetEase NTES US O USD 62.49 70.00 12 8,159 9.3 0 3 19 5 47 0 3 15 (10) 49 Dec-12 14 13 13 13.9 12.2 10.8 9.6 98 98 2.9 23.0 2.5 4.6 9.9 (27) Perfect World PWRD US N USD 12.38 17.10 38 599 1.1 0 3 14 7 16 0 3 10 (8) 18 Dec-10 4 (16) (2) 4.8 4.6 5.5 5.6 86 115 0.0 23.9 1.0 0.5 1.4 (52) RDA RDA US O USD 10.93 17.00 56 528 0.3 0 10 16 5 2 0 9 12 (10) 4 Dec-12 12 27 26 8.2 7.3 5.7 4.5 101 108 0.0 74.2 4.0 0.9 6.6 (39)
Renren RENN US N USD 2.98 4.23 42 1,129 0.9 0 5 15 (37) (14) 0 4 10 (51) (12) Dec-11 (237) nm nm 21.0 nm nm nm 103 170 0.0 (5.4) 0.8 6.5 nm 0 Sina SINA US O USD 60.72 75.00 24 4,053 30.4 0 2 31 15 21 0 2 27 0 23 Dec-12 (33) 388 38 127.6 191.0 39.1 28.4 38 80 0.0 1.9 3.5 6.7 63.8 (4) Sohu SOHU US R USD 67.20 2,570 8.9 0 8 38 54 42 0 8 34 39 44 Dec-11 (55) (21) 47 15.7 34.9 44.2 30.0 95 62 0.0 7.2 2.4 1.6 6.8 (66)
Spreadtrum SPRD US O USD 17.82 27.00 52 860 4.0 0 (8) (18) 16 1 0 (8) (22) 2 3 Dec-12 12 10 7 7.8 7.0 6.4 5.9 111 108 0.0 36.7 2.2 0.7 4.3 (48) Sector* (0) 157,917 (0) 7 18 26 21 0 7 14 11 23 Dec-12 42 26 15 29.6 20.8 16.6 14.6 101 102 0.9 22.0 4.1 2.5 13.4 (24)
Telecommunication Services
Colin McCallum - 852 2101 6514
China Telecom 728 HK O HKD 4.10 4.80 17 42,755 30.2 0 (1) 8 12 (5) 0 (1) 3 (3) (3) Dec-12 25 48 30 17.6 14.0 9.5 7.3 103 124 2.2 6.9 0.9 1.0 3.3 23
China Unicom 762 HK O HKD 11.60 18.20 57 35,255 42.6 0 2 8 (0) (7) 0 2 4 (15) (5) Dec-12 68 55 43 31.9 19.0 12.3 8.6 105 118 2.1 5.6 1.0 1.2 3.9 57 China Mobile 941 HK O HKD 85.45 102.0 19 221,310 180.7 0 (1) 3 4 (5) 0 (1) (1) (11) (3) Dec-12 (1) 1 2 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.2 102 106 4.1 16.9 1.7 1.7 3.9 (45) 21 Vianet VNET US O USD 9.60 13.50 41 555 0.5 0 1 8 (16) (0) 0 1 4 (30) 2 Dec-12 (21) 201 99 59.5 75.0 24.9 12.5 28 52 0.0 2.4 1.8 1.8 11.6 17
Sector* 23 299,875 0 (1) 5 4 (5) 0 (1) 0 (10) (3) Dec-12 5 10 11 12.2 11.6 10.5 9.5 102 110 3.6 12.8 1.4 1.4 3.8 (13)
Transportation Davin Wu - 852 2101 6917
CMH 144 HK N HKD 25.95 24.00 (8) 8,332 10.7 0 3 4 11 4 0 3 0 (3) 6 Dec-11 (3) 6 6 17.7 18.3 17.3 16.3 92 88 2.2 7.9 1.4 9.1 19.2 39 Sinotrans 368 HK O HKD 1.98 2.60 31 1,018 0.5 0 1 4 13 5 0 1 (1) (2) 7 Dec-12 278 17 0 38.0 10.0 8.6 8.6 212 165 3.0 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 (45) CEA 670 HK U HKD 2.88 2.90 1 5,542 4.0 0 (3) (10) 23 (7) 0 (3) (14) 8 (5) Dec-12 (9) 19 28 8.5 9.3 7.8 6.1 79 81 0.0 11.7 1.0 1.1 7.1 222
Air China 753 HK O HKD 6.88 7.80 13 11,412 11.4 0 2 13 39 5 0 2 8 24 7 Dec-12 30 43 8 12.7 9.8 6.8 6.3 115 140 2.0 12.9 1.3 1.6 7.6 169 CSA 1055 HK O HKD 3.92 5.00 28 5,385 5.9 0 (1) (6) 18 0 0 (2) (10) 4 2 Dec-12 85 29 26 13.3 7.2 5.6 4.5 117 132 0.0 12.5 0.8 0.9 6.1 151 China Shipping Dev 1138 HK O HKD 3.59 5.40 50 2,109 8.4 0 5 3 (16) (19) 0 5 (1) (31) (17) Dec-12 nm 107 na nm 23.0 11.1 na nm 158 1.9 1.9 0.4 3.2 16.4 130
Cosco Pacific 1199 HK N HKD 11.24 11.50 2 4,035 10.9 0 8 5 19 2 0 7 1 4 4 Dec-12 (136) nm 3 11.5 nm 13.0 12.7 nm 70 7.2 7.0 0.9 7.9 14.6 48 China COSCO 1919 HK U HKD 3.54 3.00 (15) 5,460 8.8 0 7 3 3 (7) 0 7 (1) (12) (5) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 61 nm 0.0 (14.3) 1.2 1.2 44.6 129 CSCL 2866 HK U HKD 2.00 1.20 (40) 3,890 13.3 0 2 5 0 (10) 0 1 1 (15) (8) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 0.0 (1.2) 0.7 1.0 27.3 34
SIPG 600018 CH O CNY 2.82 3.00 6 10,464 4.5 2 3 4 (3) 7 3 2 (0) (17) 9 Dec-12 10 (1) (2) 13.1 11.9 12.0 12.2 101 92 4.6 11.0 1.3 2.5 9.7 23 Sector* 4 57,648 0 2 4 14 0 1 2 (1) (1) 2 Dec-12 99 55 20 35.7 17.9 11.6 9.2 83 93 2.2 6.9 1.0 1.5 9.8 100
Utilities Vincent Chan / Edwin Pang - 852 2101 6568 / 852 2101 6406
Kunlun Energy 135 HK O HKD 15.66 17.90 14 16,277 39.3 0 2 6 24 (3) 0 2 2 9 (1) Dec-12 20 20 12 18.8 15.6 13.0 11.6 100 103 1.8 17.2 2.5 3.2 7.3 19 China Gas 384 HK N HKD 7.53 5.70 (24) 4,437 8.9 0 (10) (0) 98 23 0 (10) (5) 84 25 Mar-12 79 13 10 39.2 21.9 19.4 17.6 109 106 0.8 16.1 2.9 2.2 12.7 80
Beijing Enterprise 392 HK O HKD 64.55 65.00 1 9,578 16.0 0 7 8 48 28 0 7 4 33 30 Dec-12 12 25 22 22.5 20.1 16.1 13.2 94 96 1.2 8.9 1.7 2.4 12.7 41 CR Power 836 HK O HKD 21.10 28.00 33 12,987 22.1 0 (7) (14) 48 7 0 (8) (18) 33 9 Dec-12 30 10 2 13.4 10.3 9.4 9.2 100 100 3.1 16.8 1.6 2.7 7.6 108 Huaneng 902 HK O HKD 8.66 9.40 9 15,648 19.0 0 (10) 3 78 21 0 (10) (1) 63 23 Dec-12 57 4 7 17.4 11.1 10.6 10.0 92 87 4.5 14.7 1.6 1.8 7.6 219
China Longyuan 916 HK N HKD 8.02 7.08 (12) 3,451 17.1 0 3 10 73 50 0 2 6 59 52 Dec-12 10 17 16 18.3 16.7 14.3 12.3 99 91 1.2 10.0 1.6 4.4 7.3 158 Datang 991 HK N HKD 3.58 3.56 (1) 9,222 7.3 0 (3) 8 33 21 0 (4) 4 18 23 Dec-12 5 12 19 9.3 8.8 7.9 6.7 96 91 3.4 9.9 0.8 3.1 8.9 312 CR Gas 1193 HK N HKD 19.62 18.20 (7) 5,622 12.2 0 (6) (8) 34 23 0 (6) (12) 20 25 Dec-12 25 21 6 24.0 19.1 15.9 15.0 108 103 1.0 18.0 3.2 1.7 9.8 (2)
China Datang 1798 HK N HKD 1.93 1.65 (15) 622 2.7 0 1 13 82 95 0 1 9 67 97 Dec-12 314 48 51 98.9 23.9 16.1 10.7 95 86 0.8 5.2 1.2 8.4 9.2 334 China Power 2380 HK O HKD 3.17 3.00 (5) 2,293 4.3 0 (4) 18 96 29 0 (4) 14 81 31 Dec-12 17 7 6 12.6 10.7 10.0 9.5 83 78 3.7 9.3 0.9 3.2 9.5 236 ENN Energy 2688 HK U HKD 43.75 36.00 (18) 6,104 12.4 0 (3) 1 60 30 0 (4) (4) 46 32 Dec-12 21 15 14 25.1 20.8 18.0 15.8 95 92 1.2 19.1 3.7 2.1 11.4 52
Yangtze Power 600900 CH O CNY 7.67 8.60 12 20,637 26.4 (2) 4 8 13 12 (1) 3 3 (2) 14 Dec-12 1 5 4 12.2 12.1 11.5 11.0 104 107 4.4 12.9 1.4 6.9 8.4 63 Shenzhen Gas 601139 CH N CNY 9.74 9.61 (1) 3,145 11.4 (2) 5 2 19 2 (1) 5 (2) 4 4 Dec-12 33 48 21 36.5 27.4 18.5 15.3 102 125 15.5 11.4 3.0 1.6 16.4 (13) Sector* 7 110,024 (0) (2) 3 44 16 0 (2) (1) 29 18 Dec-12 19 12 10 15.6 13.1 11.7 10.6 99 98 3.2 13.2 1.6 2.8 8.5 133
Country Average* MXCNX 6,275 7,075 13 3,093,613 (0) 0 4 15 (2) Dec-12 11 9 6 10.2 9.2 8.5 8.0 99 97 3.5 15.7 1.4 1.1 6.1 33
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Hong Kong—valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Banks Sanjay Jain - 852 2101 6088
HSBC 5 HK O HKD 90.40 100.5 11 215,995 153.6 0 3 12 42 11 1 2 6 20 9 Dec-12 (9) 14 5 11.0 12.0 10.5 10.0 96 101 5.2 10.0 1.2 na na na Hang Seng Bank 11 HK N HKD 129.3 134.3 4 31,851 24.0 0 (0) 3 28 9 1 (1) (2) 6 6 Dec-12 (17) 7 8 13.5 16.3 15.1 14.0 69 99 4.2 15.3 2.3 na na na
BEA 23 HK U HKD 31.45 26.20 (17) 9,165 9.3 0 1 5 16 6 1 0 (1) (6) 4 Dec-12 (4) 12 13 13.6 14.1 12.6 11.1 100 104 3.0 8.4 1.2 na na na Wing Hang Bank 302 HK N HKD 75.05 80.00 7 2,923 2.9 0 (4) (6) 0 (7) 1 (5) (11) (22) (10) Dec-12 20 11 9 14.9 12.4 11.1 10.2 100 103 3.2 9.1 1.1 na na na DSF 440 HK N HKD 38.70 38.00 (2) 1,479 2.1 0 (1) (5) 55 11 1 (1) (10) 33 8 Dec-12 18 8 (12) 10.4 8.8 8.1 9.2 102 103 3.4 7.1 0.6 na na na
DSB 2356 HK N HKD 11.12 11.00 (1) 1,793 1.7 0 (3) (3) 56 32 1 (4) (8) 33 29 Dec-12 10 9 11 10.4 9.5 8.7 7.8 102 104 3.2 7.8 0.7 na na na BoCHK 2388 HK O HKD 27.50 31.50 15 37,463 43.0 0 (1) 7 24 14 1 (2) 2 2 12 Dec-12 12 9 8 15.4 13.7 12.6 11.6 97 97 4.6 13.7 1.8 na na na STAN 2888 HK U HKD 190.4 178.1 (6) 59,446 15.9 0 2 (1) 15 (3) 1 1 (6) (7) (5) Dec-12 7 7 6 11.5 10.7 10.0 9.4 95 93 3.6 11.9 1.2 na na na
Sector* 7 360,115 0 2 8 34 9 1 1 3 12 6 Dec-12 (4) 12 6 11.7 12.2 10.9 10.3 93 99 4.7 10.7 1.3 na na na
Capital Goods Kenny Lau - 852 2101 7914
Johnson Electric 179 HK N HKD 5.40 4.98 (8) 2,492 1.6 0 2 0 14 5 1 1 (5) (8) 2 Mar-13 (7) 9 10 13.0 14.0 12.8 11.6 94 95 2.0 10.9 1.5 0.9 6.5 (31)
Conglomerates Cusson Leung / Gerald Wong - 852 2101 6621 / 65 6212 3037
Wharf 4 HK O HKD 76.90 70.52 (8) 30,020 39.9 0 2 12 86 27 1 1 6 64 24 Dec-12 (14) 43 18 17.2 20.0 14.0 11.9 95 116 2.1 4.6 0.9 8.9 16.3 23 Hutchison Whampoa 13 HK O HKD 86.60 112.0 29 47,572 65.2 0 2 7 29 7 1 1 2 7 4 Dec-12 14 20 7 14.1 12.3 10.3 9.6 107 112 2.4 7.3 0.9 1.9 7.1 34
Swire 'A' 19 HK N HKD 102.3 96.17 (6) 19,308 17.3 0 2 6 22 7 1 2 1 (0) 4 Dec-12 19 19 2 18.4 15.5 13.0 12.7 108 111 3.2 4.7 0.7 4.2 13.5 19 Wheelock and Company Limited 20 HK O HKD 46.10 48.26 5 12,069 8.1 0 (0) 9 93 18 1 (1) 3 71 16 Dec-12 19 60 (3) 12.9 10.8 6.8 7.0 111 132 2.4 5.6 0.6 4.2 8.9 24 MTRC 66 HK N HKD 32.15 26.18 (19) 24,013 9.7 0 2 5 26 5 1 2 (1) 4 3 Dec-12 (30) 77 (16) 18.8 26.7 15.1 17.9 87 114 2.6 4.9 1.3 5.8 16.9 21
First Pacific 142 HK O HKD 12.06 14.66 22 5,960 6.2 0 2 12 51 42 1 1 7 29 39 Dec-12 10 37 11 17.1 15.6 11.3 10.2 92 106 1.8 11.2 1.7 1.2 3.0 21 Shun Tak 242 HK O HKD 4.17 6.08 46 1,605 4.4 0 1 4 50 (0) 1 1 (1) 28 (3) Dec-12 (79) 403 129 4.7 22.6 4.5 2.0 82 177 1.5 2.6 0.6 2.7 13.8 5 Jardine Matheson JM SP N USD 67.19 72.00 7 45,060 17.0 0 1 (1) 34 8 1 (0) (6) 12 6 Dec-12 13 8 13 16.6 14.7 13.5 12.0 101 98 2.1 9.2 1.3 1.2 9.6 10
Jardine Strategic JS SP N USD 40.39 42.00 4 45,243 9.4 0 1 2 26 14 1 0 (3) 4 11 Dec-12 15 8 14 15.6 13.6 12.6 11.0 101 99 0.7 8.3 1.1 1.4 9.8 8 Sector* 6 234,203 0 1 5 40 12 1 1 (0) 18 10 Dec-12 5 26 10 15.8 15.0 11.9 10.8 102 109 2.1 6.3 1.0 2.1 9.4 20
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Karim Salamatian / Eva Wang / Gabriel Chan / Isis Wong - 852 2101 7996 / 852 2101 7365 / 852 2101 6523 / 852 2101 7109
Chow Sang Sang 116 HK O HKD 19.74 23.50 19 1,722 2.3 0 (6) (3) 9 10 1 (7) (8) (13) 7 Dec-12 35 38 32 13.6 10.1 7.3 5.6 108 122 3.5 17.7 1.7 0.7 7.7 14
Texwinca 321 HK N HKD 8.38 5.70 (32) 1,472 1.3 0 (2) (8) (5) 15 1 (3) (13) (27) 12 Mar-12 (32) 50 32 12.4 18.2 12.1 9.2 104 97 4.1 11.3 2.0 0.8 11.2 (34) Luk Fook 590 HK N HKD 20.10 22.50 12 1,526 8.8 0 (4) (5) 12 (18) 1 (5) (11) (10) (20) Mar-12 (16) 11 32 8.3 9.9 8.9 6.8 101 94 4.5 19.6 1.8 0.7 6.0 (39) Pacific Textiles 1382 HK O HKD 10.08 7.00 (31) 1,875 1.0 0 1 11 96 45 1 0 5 74 42 Mar-12 4 12 14 16.2 15.6 14.0 12.3 100 99 7.0 23.6 3.7 1.9 9.4 (45)
Samsonite 1910 HK O HKD 20.75 22.00 6 3,762 20.0 0 (1) 9 44 30 1 (2) 3 22 27 Dec-12 41 26 24 25.3 18.0 14.3 11.5 103 110 2.8 19.0 3.3 1.7 10.3 (19) Prada 1913 HK O HKD 75.30 88.00 17 24,826 22.2 0 2 3 60 2 1 2 (2) 38 (1) Jan-13 32 21 23 30.8 23.3 19.3 15.7 104 106 1.7 32.2 6.8 4.7 14.1 (17) CTF Jewellery 1929 HK N HKD 9.70 12.10 25 12,498 7.9 0 (4) (5) (5) (22) 1 (5) (10) (27) (25) Mar-12 (19) 36 30 14.2 17.4 12.8 9.9 100 108 1.6 18.0 3.0 1.6 12.2 3
Sector* 15 47,681 0 (0) 1 38 (0) 1 (1) (5) 16 (3) Dec-12 25 27 24 21.9 17.4 13.8 13.8 104 109 2.1 23.0 3.7 2.0 11.2 (12)
Consumer Staples Karim Salamatian - 852 2101 7996
L’Occitane 973 HK U HKD 21.40 19.00 (11) 4,054 3.6 0 0 (1) 10 (13) 1 (0) (7) (12) (15) Mar-12 2 22 23 26.2 25.7 21.0 17.0 95 101 1.0 17.6 4.2 2.7 13.6 (39)
Diversified Financials Arjan van Veen - 852 2101 7508
Hong Kong Exchange 388 HK N HKD 133.1 140.0 5 19,719 81.5 0 2 4 18 1 1 1 (2) (4) (2) Dec-12 15 16 17 33.5 29.2 25.3 21.5 104 106 3.1 27.5 7.4 na na na
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Gabriel Chan - 852 2101 6523
Galaxy 27 HK O HKD 39.55 42.60 8 21,442 54.4 0 3 24 106 30 1 2 19 84 28 Dec-12 22 26 28 22.4 18.4 14.6 11.3 101 107 0.0 34.4 5.4 2.6 14.1 (6)
SJM 880 HK O HKD 20.85 22.60 8 14,908 21.0 0 (7) 9 51 16 1 (8) 4 29 13 Dec-12 16 18 15 17.1 14.8 12.5 10.8 105 113 5.1 36.9 5.1 1.0 10.4 (118) Wynn Macau 1128 HK N HKD 25.40 22.30 (12) 16,977 25.8 0 2 17 37 21 1 1 12 15 19 Dec-11 10 20 16 22.3 20.3 17.0 14.6 101 108 4.5 155.9 30.7 4.6 16.5 27 Sands China 1928 HK O HKD 41.00 42.00 2 42,560 53.8 0 1 3 55 21 1 1 (2) 33 18 Dec-12 74 35 26 34.4 19.8 14.7 11.6 106 116 5.1 36.6 6.9 4.9 15.7 14
MGM China 2282 HK O HKD 20.35 19.80 (3) 9,964 14.5 0 0 19 64 45 1 (1) 13 42 43 Dec-12 4 10 13 17.1 16.4 14.9 13.2 100 96 4.3 84.7 14.7 3.2 12.7 2 MPEL MPEL US O USD 24.62 27.40 11 13,641 20.7 0 2 7 102 46 1 1 1 80 44 Dec-12 23 55 2 32.4 26.3 16.9 16.6 97 115 0.0 14.2 3.5 3.3 12.6 13 Sector* 3 119,492 0 1 11 67 27 1 (0) 6 45 24 Dec-12 32 27 21 24.4 18.5 14.6 12.1 104 112 3.4 37.9 6.5 2.9 13.8 (12)
Insurance Arjan van Veen / Chris Esson / Gabriel Dechaine - 852 2101 7508 / 44 20 7888 0294 / 416 352 4583
Manulife 945 HK O HKD 120.7 138.4 15 28,842 56.0 0 (0) 12 40 17 1 (1) 7 18 14 Dec-12 12 18 na 13.4 12.0 10.2 na 98 100 3.3 10.5 1.2 na na na
AIA Group 1299 HK O HKD 36.10 38.50 7 56,021 204.4 0 2 9 40 19 1 1 3 18 17 Nov-12 7 8 9 18.6 17.4 16.0 14.7 108 104 1.3 11.5 1.9 na na na Prudential 2378 HK O HKD 141.0 160.5 14 46,578 0.0 0 (1) 13 69 25 1 (2) 7 47 22 Dec-12 3 12 11 13.9 13.5 12.0 10.8 109 101 2.6 19.4 2.5 na na na Sector* 11 131,442 0 1 11 50 21 1 (0) 6 28 18 Dec-12 4 11 10 15.0 14.4 12.9 12.7 105 101 2.2 13.1 1.8 na na na
Metals & Mining Trina Chen / Frankie Zhu / Owen Liang - 852 2101 7031 / 852 2101 7426 / 852 2101 6093
Rusal 486 HK N HKD 3.88 4.80 24 7,595 1.0 0 1 (3) (16) (21) 1 (0) (8) (38) (23) Dec-12 nm 233 (11) nm 35.1 10.5 11.8 38 80 0.0 1.9 0.7 1.2 10.2 89
MMC 975 HK U HKD 2.15 2.30 7 1,026 1.6 0 4 (2) (62) (43) 1 4 (8) (84) (46) Dec-12 nm 68 31 nm 17.8 10.6 8.1 74 79 0.0 7.4 1.3 2.1 9.4 84 MMG 1208 HK O HKD 2.48 3.20 29 1,690 3.1 0 (1) (1) (26) (23) 1 (2) (6) (48) (25) Dec-12 70 (26) 36 8.8 5.2 7.0 5.1 98 65 0.0 18.2 0.9 1.2 2.8 63 Sector* 23 10,312 0 1 (3) (22) (23) 1 (0) (8) (44) (26) Dec-12 348 76 4 76.8 17.2 9.7 9.4 61 76 0.0 4.4 0.7 1.2 6.7 85
Paper & Forest Products Kenny Lau - 852 2101 7914
Lee & Man Paper 2314 HK N HKD 5.21 6.60 27 3,161 5.0 0 0 (13) 64 7 1 (0) (19) 42 4 Dec-12 59 23 16 18.5 11.6 9.4 8.1 102 105 3.1 13.7 1.5 2.0 10.4 55
Nine Dragons Paper 2689 HK U HKD 6.26 5.35 (15) 3,762 13.3 0 3 (10) 38 (11) 1 2 (16) 16 (13) Jun-12 5 18 15 16.2 15.5 13.2 11.5 91 77 1.4 6.7 1.0 1.6 9.3 105 Sector* 4 6,923 0 2 (12) 50 (3) 1 1 (17) 28 (5) Dec-12 32 19 16 17.3 13.1 11.0 8.1 91 88 2.2 9.5 1.2 1.6 9.5 85
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Hong Kong—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Real Estate Cusson Leung / Joyce Kwock - 852 2101 6621 / 852 2101 7496
Cheung Kong 1 HK O HKD 117.3 152.0 30 35,006 62.0 0 1 0 27 (1) 1 1 (5) 5 (4) Dec-12 (17) 17 5 8.5 10.2 8.7 8.3 97 101 2.7 7.6 0.8 6.9 9.6 7 Henderson Land 12 HK O HKD 57.50 74.04 29 17,891 29.0 0 3 1 46 5 1 2 (4) 24 3 Dec-12 54 (7) 35 19.3 12.5 13.5 10.0 135 121 1.8 5.2 0.6 4.5 12.1 (1)
Hysan 14 HK O HKD 36.85 44.77 21 5,050 7.6 0 (3) (1) 16 (1) 1 (4) (6) (6) (4) Dec-12 30 2 8 24.0 18.4 18.0 16.6 109 103 3.4 3.6 0.7 13.3 15.2 5 SHKP 16 HK O HKD 111.9 139.3 24 38,510 78.7 0 2 (1) 26 (4) 1 1 (6) 4 (6) Jun-12 1 29 3 13.4 13.3 10.3 9.9 103 122 3.0 6.3 0.8 5.8 13.2 16 Sino Land 83 HK O HKD 12.52 16.65 33 9,601 12.4 0 3 (3) 11 (10) 1 2 (8) (11) (13) Jun-12 29 3 (21) 13.9 10.8 10.4 13.3 105 114 4.1 7.4 0.8 12.2 24.4 7
Hang Lung Prop 101 HK U HKD 30.25 29.02 (4) 17,454 26.0 0 (0) 2 21 (2) 1 (1) (4) (1) (4) Dec-12 21 (17) (15) 21.9 18.1 21.8 25.5 115 84 2.3 6.2 1.1 9.7 13.0 (8) Kerry Properties 683 HK O HKD 34.30 49.50 44 6,363 9.3 0 (0) (0) 6 (15) 1 (1) (6) (16) (17) Dec-12 (7) 5 17 10.5 11.3 10.8 9.3 93 101 2.6 6.0 0.7 2.4 10.0 29 Midland 1200 HK O HKD 3.49 4.25 22 323 1.5 0 (1) 1 (5) (6) 1 (1) (4) (27) (8) Dec-12 (31) 37 46 10.0 14.5 10.6 7.2 75 85 5.5 10.6 1.5 0.3 3.7 (79)
Swire Properties 1972 HK O HKD 26.65 30.10 13 20,088 17.0 0 2 (1) 23 3 1 1 (7) 1 1 Dec-12 10 6 (13) 21.5 19.6 18.4 21.3 122 121 2.0 4.1 0.8 10.0 17.5 15 Hongkong Land HKL SP O USD 7.26 8.65 19 17,081 16.6 0 (1) (2) 23 4 1 (2) (7) 1 1 Dec-12 23 (25) 20 22.7 18.4 24.5 20.4 107 85 2.2 3.7 0.6 12.5 21.8 11 Sector* 22 170,223 0 1 (0) 26 (1) 1 0 (6) 4 (3) Dec-12 7 5 8 13.8 12.9 12.4 12.5 109 107 2.7 6.0 0.8 5.9 12.5 9
REITS Joyce Kwock - 852 2101 7496
Link REIT 823 HK U HKD 44.40 36.64 (17) 13,090 32.2 0 (4) 1 53 15 1 (5) (5) 31 12 Mar-12 11 7 7 34.2 30.8 28.8 27.0 99 97 3.2 5.2 1.6 25.6 17
Champion REIT 2778 HK O HKD 4.15 5.02 21 3,041 4.0 0 (1) 2 32 12 1 (2) (3) 10 9 Dec-12 (6) 8 3 22.0 23.4 21.7 21.0 103 106 4.2 2.4 0.7 25.0 30 Sector* (10) 16,130 0 (3) 1 49 14 1 (4) (4) 27 12 Dec-12 4 7 5 29.2 28.0 26.1 24.9 98 98 3.6 4.2 1.3 24.4 22
Retailing Karim Salamatian / Gabriel Chan - 852 2101 7996 / 852 2101 6523
Sa Sa 178 HK N HKD 8.60 7.50 (13) 3,132 4.9 0 1 17 101 35 1 (0) 11 79 33 Mar-12 22 27 21 35.0 28.8 22.7 18.7 102 105 2.4 47.0 12.4 3.0 19.8 (35) Esprit 330 HK U HKD 11.16 6.60 (41) 2,788 15.3 0 (1) 10 (5) 4 1 (2) 5 (27) 1 Jun-12 (439) nm 458 16.5 nm 169.3 30.3 41 37 0.0 (23.8) 1.3 0.8 225.5 (4)
Li & Fung 494 HK U HKD 11.36 8.15 (28) 12,237 44.0 0 2 13 (24) (17) 1 1 7 (46) (20) Dec-12 (8) 25 22 19.5 21.1 16.9 13.8 89 91 3.5 12.2 2.5 0.7 14.1 49 Lifestyle Intl 1212 HK N HKD 16.28 19.40 19 3,478 4.2 0 0 (5) 1 (14) 1 (0) (10) (21) (17) Dec-12 (2) 7 12 13.2 13.4 12.6 11.2 99 99 3.0 19.9 2.5 4.8 10.4 12 Sector* (20) 21,636 0 1 10 1 (6) 1 0 5 (21) (9) Dec-12 (12) 75 20 27.4 31.2 17.8 13.1 74 92 2.9 8.7 2.5 0.9 14.4 28
Small Cap Companies Kenny Lau / Eva Wang - 852 2101 7914 / 852 2101 7365
Kingboard 148 HK N HKD 17.98 19.58 9 2,376 7.2 0 1 7 21 (22) 1 0 1 (1) (24) Dec-12 8 12 12 8.8 8.1 7.3 6.5 93 90 2.6 7.2 0.6 0.8 5.6 34
VTech 303 HK O HKD 113.6 114.0 0 3,667 5.5 0 12 10 32 31 1 11 5 10 28 Mar-13 5 5 6 18.1 17.3 16.5 15.5 97 96 5.7 36.7 6.3 1.7 12.5 (56) ASM Pacific 522 HK N HKD 88.85 72.50 (18) 4,571 14.5 0 5 13 (11) (6) 1 5 8 (33) (8) Dec-12 30 53 (16) 51.3 39.5 25.8 30.7 74 68 1.3 13.1 4.9 3.0 21.9 (17) Yue Yuen 551 HK U HKD 21.80 15.80 (28) 4,632 6.5 0 (4) (19) (15) (16) 1 (4) (24) (37) (18) Dec-12 (47) 8 15 7.9 15.0 13.9 12.1 71 65 2.8 8.1 1.1 0.6 8.8 5
Techtronic 669 HK N HKD 19.62 16.00 (18) 4,627 12.9 0 2 8 113 37 1 2 3 91 34 Dec-12 14 13 11 22.1 19.4 17.2 15.5 92 84 1.1 14.4 2.7 1.2 11.2 15 Varitronix 710 HK O HKD 6.62 7.40 12 278 0.7 0 (1) 19 98 114 1 (2) 13 76 112 Dec-12 23 20 15 12.6 10.2 8.5 7.4 100 100 5.1 13.2 1.3 0.8 6.2 (12) Sector* (13) 20,150 0 3 4 30 8 1 2 (2) 8 6 Dec-12 (14) 14 8 14.6 16.9 14.8 13.7 84 79 2.6 10.6 1.7 1.1 9.8 13
Technology Kenny Lau / Thompson Wu - 852 2101 7914 / 886 2 2715 6386
Truly Int'l 732 HK U HKD 4.66 0.98 (79) 1,674 5.0 0 (7) 6 298 166 1 (7) 1 276 164 Dec-10 10 30 16 40.4 36.8 28.4 24.5 92 64 1.1 8.6 3.1 1.6 13.1 43
Lenovo Group 992 HK O HKD 7.26 10.00 38 9,767 50.2 0 8 4 6 3 1 7 (2) (17) 1 Mar-12 27 33 16 20.5 16.1 12.1 10.4 97 109 2.2 24.1 3.8 0.2 7.0 (169) Sector* 21 11,441 0 6 4 48 27 1 5 (1) 26 25 Dec-12 30 20 na 18.0 13.8 10.8 na 101 108 2.6 24.3 3.1 0.2 5.6 (141)
Telecommunication Services
Chate Benchavitvilai - 852 2101 7040
PCCW 8 HK O HKD 3.87 4.10 6 3,626 5.4 0 (2) (0) 36 14 1 (3) (6) 14 11 Dec-12 (8) 25 12 16.9 18.4 14.7 13.1 88 94 5.1 16.9 3.1 1.8 6.0 257
HTHK 215 HK U HKD 4.27 3.10 (27) 2,651 2.3 0 (4) 15 18 20 1 (5) 10 (4) 17 Dec-11 15 12 3 20.2 17.5 15.7 15.3 96 98 4.3 11.0 1.9 1.6 8.0 30 Smartone 315 HK U HKD 13.72 13.30 (3) 1,835 4.2 0 (2) 5 (4) (3) 1 (3) (1) (26) (5) Jun-12 (4) 7 4 13.9 14.5 13.5 13.0 99 102 6.9 31.5 4.6 1.3 4.2 (24) HKT Trust 6823 HK N HKD 8.10 7.70 (5) 6,697 11.3 0 3 3 37 7 1 2 (2) 15 4 Dec-12 16 53 12 32.3 27.8 18.1 16.2 96 119 5.4 6.1 1.7 3.3 9.1 71
Sector* (6) 14,809 0 (0) 5 28 10 1 (1) (1) 6 7 Dec-12 5 26 9 21.1 20.1 15.9 14.6 95 104 5.4 10.7 2.2 2.1 7.0 85
Transportation Timothy Ross - 65 6212 3337
Cathay Pacific 293 HK O HKD 14.58 16.70 15 7,390 8.0 0 3 9 19 3 1 3 4 (4) (0) Dec-12 173 119 28 46.6 17.1 7.8 6.1 117 157 1.8 5.8 1.0 1.1 10.4 75 OOIL 316 HK U HKD 46.75 45.00 (4) 3,770 4.7 0 (1) 2 7 (7) 1 (1) (3) (15) (9) Dec-12 46 44 30 13.1 9.0 6.3 4.8 129 119 2.8 9.0 0.8 0.7 6.5 21 Pacific Basin 2343 HK O HKD 4.44 5.00 13 1,108 2.2 0 2 (1) 24 2 1 1 (7) 2 (0) Dec-12 100 90 19 23.1 11.6 6.1 5.1 236 223 2.9 7.1 0.8 0.9 8.2 29
Sector* 9 12,268 0 2 6 16 (0) 1 1 1 (6) (3) Dec-12 92 83 28 24.9 13.0 7.1 5.5 129 145 2.2 7.0 0.9 0.9 9.0 52
Utilities Edwin Pang - 852 2101 6406
CLP 2 HK N HKD 69.55 64.50 (7) 22,640 33.4 0 1 3 9 7 1 0 (2) (13) 5 Dec-12 18 10 4 20.2 17.0 15.5 15.0 96 100 3.8 11.1 1.8 6.5 12.2 57 HKCG 3 HK U HKD 23.65 18.30 (23) 26,482 18.8 0 2 1 39 12 1 1 (4) 17 9 Dec-12 (2) 2 2 26.6 27.3 26.7 26.1 105 97 1.5 15.9 4.1 8.4 17.5 25 Power Assets 6 HK N HKD 79.10 69.65 (12) 21,752 22.3 0 2 7 37 19 1 1 2 15 17 Dec-12 8 3 3 17.4 16.1 15.6 15.2 103 103 3.3 15.9 2.5 17.4 13.5 25
CKI 1038 HK O HKD 57.70 59.00 2 18,140 14.6 0 3 5 27 21 1 2 (1) 5 19 Dec-12 12 7 4 14.7 13.1 12.2 11.7 105 110 3.3 16.6 2.1 33.6 13.6 25 Sector* (11) 89,015 0 2 4 28 14 1 1 (1) 6 12 Dec-12 9 6 3 19.3 17.7 16.7 16.2 102 103 2.9 14.4 2.5 10.3 14.0 36
Country Average* HSI 23,236 24,822 7 1,292,106 (1) 1 5 22 3 Dec-12 5 16 9 15.3 14.6 12.5 11.6 99 103 3.2 9.4 1.3 2.2 10.8 18
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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India—valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Automobiles & Components
Jatin Chawla - 91 22 6777 3719
Apollo Tyres APTY IN U INR 91.00 89.00 (2) 826 3.5 0 0 (3) 10 2 (0) 1 (8) (16) (1) Mar-12 49 10 16 11.1 7.5 6.8 5.9 103 100 1.1 19.7 1.4 0.6 5.0 78 Ashok Leyland AL IN N INR 23.60 24.00 2 1,131 2.8 0 5 5 (4) (12) (0) 5 (0) (30) (16) Mar-12 (24) (25) 99 11.1 14.6 19.4 9.8 300 86 2.9 10.0 1.4 0.8 12.0 94
Bajaj Auto BJAUT IN O INR 1,856 2,126 15 9,672 16.0 0 2 5 23 (13) (0) 2 0 (3) (17) Mar-12 3 13 16 17.6 17.2 15.2 13.1 103 99 2.4 45.6 7.0 2.3 12.9 (88) Bosch Ltd. BOS IN O INR 9,134 10,020 10 5,166 1.0 0 1 3 2 (4) (0) 2 (2) (23) (7) Dec-11 (15) 19 31 25.5 29.9 25.0 19.1 100 97 0.7 18.8 5.2 3.2 20.7 (15) Exide Industries EXID IN N INR 140.4 131.0 (7) 2,149 4.0 0 1 5 19 (2) (0) 2 (0) (7) (6) Mar-12 8 25 19 25.9 24.0 19.3 16.1 95 93 1.1 15.4 4.1 1.9 15.3 (7)
Hero Motocorp HMCL IN N INR 1,685 1,742 3 6,062 11.2 0 (1) 10 (9) (11) (0) (1) 5 (35) (15) Mar-12 (11) 4 31 14.2 15.9 15.2 11.6 100 100 3.6 45.5 6.7 1.2 9.0 (83) Mahindra & Mahindra MM IN N INR 987.4 882.0 (11) 10,920 21.9 0 0 11 55 6 (0) 1 6 29 2 Mar-12 10 4 9 21.1 19.2 18.4 16.9 96 90 1.4 23.7 4.2 1.5 13.6 7 Maruti Suzuki MSIL IN O INR 1,698 2,163 27 8,839 20.7 0 (2) 10 47 14 (0) (2) 5 22 10 Mar-12 40 60 15 29.2 20.8 13.0 11.3 103 119 0.5 14.2 2.7 0.9 9.0 (53)
Tata Motors TTMT IN O INR 293.2 365.0 24 14,363 55.6 0 (5) 3 11 (6) (0) (5) (2) (15) (10) Mar-12 (33) 53 10 6.9 10.3 6.8 6.2 94 113 1.7 24.6 2.3 0.6 4.2 72 Sector* 11 59,128 0 (1) 7 23 (2) (0) (1) 1 (2) (6) Dec-12 19 18 na 15.1 12.7 10.7 na 104 104 1.8 25.3 2.9 0.9 6.3 9
Banks Ashish Gupta - 91 22 6777 3895
Axis Bank AXSB IN O INR 1,521 1,800 18 12,839 48.0 0 1 6 57 12 (0) 1 0 32 8 Mar-12 14 9 17 15.0 13.2 12.1 10.3 97 94 1.2 18.5 2.2 na na na BOB BOB IN O INR 734.7 873.0 19 5,575 12.8 0 1 5 10 (15) (0) 1 0 (16) (19) Mar-12 (14) 21 19 5.9 6.9 5.7 4.8 97 104 2.5 15.7 1.0 na na na
BOI BOI IN N INR 324.7 367.0 13 3,485 7.0 0 (1) (5) 5 (5) (0) (1) (10) (20) (9) Mar-12 9 25 5 6.8 6.2 5.0 4.8 109 113 2.8 14.3 0.8 na na na HDFC Bank HDFCB IN O INR 708.0 770.0 9 30,328 37.0 0 (1) 1 45 4 (0) (1) (4) 19 1 Mar-12 28 25 27 31.8 24.9 19.9 15.7 101 100 0.8 20.6 4.8 na na na ICICI ICICIBC IN N INR 1,210 1,202 (1) 25,147 67.1 0 2 5 51 6 (0) 2 0 25 3 Mar-12 18 17 15 20.3 17.1 14.7 12.8 98 98 1.8 12.9 2.1 na na na
IndusInd Bank IIB IN N INR 496.4 465.0 (6) 4,676 13.2 0 (3) 7 62 19 (0) (3) 1 37 15 Mar-12 25 21 22 28.9 23.2 19.1 15.6 100 98 0.7 17.8 3.5 na na na IOB IOB IN U INR 63.55 63.00 (1) 1,058 2.0 0 (0) (6) (20) (26) (0) (0) (11) (46) (30) Mar-12 (57) 129 na 4.1 9.6 4.2 na 93 120 2.6 4.7 0.4 na na na J&K Bank JKBK IN O INR 1,270 1,700 34 1,109 1.5 0 (5) 1 40 (2) (0) (5) (4) 15 (6) Mar-12 34 3 10 7.7 5.7 5.6 5.0 102 97 3.2 23.8 1.2 na na na
Kotak KMB IN N INR 765.0 680.0 (11) 10,568 8.8 0 (0) 13 39 18 (0) 0 8 13 14 Mar-12 19 20 17 31.7 26.7 22.2 19.0 98 98 0.2 15.7 3.9 na na na PNB PNB IN N INR 820.5 837.0 2 5,224 12.3 0 (0) 5 14 (6) (0) 0 (0) (12) (10) Mar-12 (7) 1 18 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.7 106 97 3.4 17.8 0.9 na na na SBI SBIN IN N INR 2,361 2,237 (5) 29,093 93.7 0 (1) 2 22 (1) (0) (1) (4) (4) (5) Mar-12 21 9 18 13.5 11.2 10.3 8.7 97 95 1.8 15.9 1.6 na na na
UnionBank UNBK IN U INR 235.1 232.0 (1) 2,527 8.2 0 (3) (2) 17 (14) (0) (3) (7) (9) (18) Mar-12 12 32 20 7.1 6.3 4.8 4.0 95 112 5.0 14.9 0.9 na na na ING Vysya Bank VYSB IN O INR 619.9 693.0 12 1,712 1.7 0 1 8 84 18 (0) 1 3 59 14 Mar-12 30 28 16 20.4 15.7 12.2 10.5 101 105 1.0 14.4 2.1 na na na Yes Bank YES IN U INR 515.4 466.0 (10) 3,332 20.5 0 (2) 4 60 11 (0) (2) (1) 34 7 Mar-12 29 16 21 18.6 14.4 12.5 10.3 101 93 1.2 24.4 3.2 na na na
Sector* 3 136,671 0 (0) 4 39 4 (0) (0) (1) 13 0 Dec-12 15 17 na 13.7 11.9 10.3 na 99 98 1.7 16.0 1.8 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Amish Shah / Anubhav Aggarwal / Kush Shah - 91 22 6777 3743 / 91 22 6777 3808 / 91 22 6777 3862
Ambuja Cements ACEM IN O INR 185.7 205.0 10 5,162 8.5 0 (0) (1) 32 (8) (0) (0) (6) 7 (11) Dec-12 5 35 na 19.2 18.3 13.6 na 98 112 1.9 16.9 2.9 2.4 11.4 (42) ACC ACC IN O INR 1,222 1,505 23 4,132 7.9 0 (1) 1 8 (15) (0) (0) (5) (18) (18) Dec-12 8 33 na 17.7 16.4 12.4 na 99 110 2.5 18.0 2.8 1.6 10.6 (42)
India Cements ICEM IN O INR 84.65 117.0 38 468 1.9 0 (3) 2 18 (7) (0) (3) (3) (8) (10) Mar-12 2 20 53 8.9 8.7 7.3 4.7 131 133 1.2 7.1 0.6 1.0 4.6 46 Jaiprakash Assoc JPA IN O INR 76.80 92.00 20 3,070 31.6 0 2 (0) 25 (21) (0) 2 (5) (0) (25) Mar-12 (57) 5 26 18.6 43.1 41.1 32.6 78 70 0.7 3.1 1.3 2.9 12.0 162 Ultratech Cement UTCEM IN N INR 1,934 1,950 1 9,549 8.3 0 (2) 3 40 (2) (0) (2) (2) 14 (6) Mar-12 7 7 28 21.0 19.7 18.4 14.3 101 98 0.4 19.1 3.5 2.7 11.8 13
Sector* 11 22,381 0 (1) 1 30 (8) (0) (1) (4) 4 (12) Dec-12 5 29 na 19.9 19.0 14.7 na 98 106 1.2 12.9 2.3 2.2 10.6 31
Capital Goods Amish Shah / Anantha Narayan - 91 22 6777 3743 / 91 22 6777 3730
BHEL BHEL IN U INR 205.6 164.0 (20) 9,065 14.0 0 7 7 (1) (10) (0) 8 2 (27) (14) Mar-12 (11) (22) (10) 7.1 8.0 10.3 11.5 100 94 2.9 22.7 1.7 0.8 4.6 (36) Crompton Greaves CRG IN U INR 105.2 92.00 (13) 1,215 5.0 0 9 11 (9) (9) (0) 9 6 (35) (13) Mar-12 (38) 154 32 18.1 29.1 11.4 8.7 118 116 1.3 6.5 1.9 0.6 10.5 11 Cummins India KKC IN N INR 478.9 481.0 0 2,391 2.3 0 (5) (5) 18 (7) (0) (5) (10) (7) (11) Mar-12 24 2 15 24.6 19.9 19.4 16.9 95 95 2.7 30.2 5.6 2.7 16.4 (38)
Kajaria Ceramics KJC IN O INR 228.3 360.0 58 303 0.3 0 (3) 23 36 (2) (0) (2) 18 10 (6) Mar-13 29 30 20 16.1 12.5 9.6 8.0 105 110 1.8 32.8 3.6 1.0 6.5 59 L&T LT IN N INR 1,607 1,432 (11) 17,822 42.8 0 2 5 38 0 (0) 2 (0) 12 (4) Mar-12 15 6 9 21.2 18.5 17.4 16.0 104 100 1.3 17.0 3.0 1.9 13.4 121 Voltas VOLT IN U INR 89.05 82.00 (8) 531 3.0 0 1 7 (7) (16) (0) 1 2 (33) (20) Mar-12 (38) 37 14 8.3 13.3 9.7 8.5 105 116 1.9 14.0 1.7 0.5 9.6 (22)
Sector* (12) 31,327 0 3 5 23 (4) (0) 3 0 (3) (8) Dec-12 (4) 1 22 13.5 14.0 13.9 8.3 99 97 1.9 16.9 2.2 1.4 10.0 42
Conglomerates Ashish Gupta / Amish Shah / Anubhav Aggarwal - 91 22 6777 3895 / 91 22 6777 3743 / 91 22 6777 3808
Adani Enterprises ADE IN U INR 239.8 205.0 (15) 4,751 9.4 0 6 7 (1) (12) (0) 6 2 (26) (15) Mar-12 (45) 170 15 14.4 26.2 9.7 8.5 75 102 0.6 5.0 1.3 2.1 15.7 299 Grasim Industries GRASIM IN O INR 3,059 3,670 20 5,057 4.3 0 1 8 28 (3) (0) 1 3 2 (7) Mar-12 6 20 15 11.8 11.1 9.2 8.0 101 106 0.9 13.9 1.4 1.2 5.6 14 Max India MAX IN O INR 212.8 251.0 18 1,019 0.9 0 0 (2) 12 (12) (0) 0 (7) (13) (16) Mar-11 nm nm 169 nm nm 158.9 59.0 nm 19 0.0 (0.6) 2.0 7.8 134.4 (7)
Sector* 5 10,827 0 3 7 14 (8) (0) 3 1 (12) (11) Dec-12 42 23 na 16.1 11.3 8.5 na 97 96 0.7 11.8 1.3 1.7 8.1 140
Consumer Staples Arnab Mitra - 91 22 6777 3806
Colgate CLGT IN U INR 1,419 1,232 (13) 3,475 3.4 0 (8) 1 18 (9) (0) (8) (4) (8) (13) Mar-12 17 14 16 43.2 36.9 32.2 27.8 100 99 2.2 116.2 41.4 6.2 31.3 (65) Dabur DABUR IN N INR 154.8 150.0 (3) 4,860 3.0 0 (4) 7 48 20 (0) (4) 2 22 17 Mar-12 19 23 16 41.8 35.3 28.7 24.8 100 102 1.2 39.9 12.7 4.4 25.8 (7) Emami HMN IN O INR 730.8 815.0 12 1,992 1.6 0 7 19 58 22 (0) 7 14 33 18 Mar-12 21 30 21 42.7 35.2 27.0 22.4 100 105 1.1 39.7 12.6 6.4 31.6 (25)
GSK Consumer SKB IN O INR 4,747 4,625 (3) 3,596 2.6 0 7 25 79 24 (0) 7 20 53 20 Dec-12 19 19 20 45.7 38.4 32.3 27.0 99 100 1.1 34.9 12.3 5.1 32.8 (97) GCPL GCPL IN O INR 846.5 861.0 2 5,189 2.6 0 (2) 3 50 17 (0) (2) (2) 24 14 Mar-12 10 14 22 39.6 36.2 31.8 26.1 119 102 0.6 25.6 8.5 4.7 29.4 30 Hindustan Unilever HUVR IN N INR 585.8 500.0 (15) 22,817 26.0 0 (0) 21 39 12 (0) 0 16 13 8 Mar-12 23 11 9 47.0 38.2 34.4 31.4 104 103 3.2 118.3 60.6 4.9 30.9 (82)
ITC ITC IN O INR 331.6 360.0 9 47,192 40.9 0 (3) 5 43 16 (0) (3) (0) 17 12 Mar-12 21 18 19 42.1 34.8 29.5 24.8 101 101 1.7 37.4 12.3 9.0 24.8 (19) Marico MRCO IN N INR 219.5 224.0 2 2,550 0.8 0 1 2 30 1 (0) 1 (3) 4 (3) Mar-12 12 28 21 42.3 37.9 29.6 24.5 69 100 0.4 24.0 7.2 3.2 24.2 34 Nestle NEST IN U INR 5,246 4,670 (11) 9,112 3.1 0 7 12 12 5 (0) 7 7 (14) 1 Dec-12 12 21 18 47.4 42.1 34.8 29.4 97 98 1.4 60.7 23.5 5.4 23.6 (2)
United Spirits UNSP IN O INR 2,410 2,550 6 5,677 71.5 0 5 15 286 27 (0) 5 10 260 23 Mar-12 (152) nm 50 156.9 nm 55.5 37.0 89 89 0.0 (2.1) 6.5 4.1 30.2 175 Sector* (0) 106,460 0 (1) 10 53 14 (0) (1) 5 27 10 Dec-12 20 19 19 40.7 33.9 28.5 28.7 101 101 1.7 40.4 12.6 5.5 23.8 (9)
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India—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Diversified Financials Ashish Gupta / Sunil Tirumalai - 91 22 6777 3895 / 91 22 6777 3714
HDFC HDFC IN O INR 902.2 1,045 16 25,144 39.3 0 (1) 8 40 9 (0) (1) 3 15 5 Mar-12 15 17 18 32.2 28.1 23.9 20.3 102 103 1.6 22.0 5.6 na na na IDFC IDFC IN O INR 159.8 190.0 19 4,358 18.1 0 1 0 35 (7) (0) 1 (5) 9 (10) Mar-12 21 18 17 15.6 12.8 10.8 9.2 103 105 1.9 14.5 1.8 na na na LIC Housing Finance LICHF IN O INR 276.7 365.0 32 2,515 14.0 0 7 18 18 (5) (0) 7 13 (7) (9) Mar-13 31 25 24 13.3 10.2 8.1 6.6 106 110 1.7 19.0 1.8 na na na
LTFH LTFH IN N INR 82.60 50.00 (39) 2,554 3.9 0 (0) 6 98 (7) (0) 0 1 72 (11) Mar-12 30 24 19 29.4 22.5 18.1 15.2 123 101 0.0 12.4 2.6 na na na MMFSL MMFS IN N INR 238.9 200.0 (16) 2,447 5.8 0 (7) 13 85 8 (0) (6) 7 59 4 Mar-13 9 11 29 14.3 13.2 11.9 9.2 98 88 1.9 20.9 2.5 na na na Shriram Transport SHTF IN O INR 785.0 860.0 10 3,208 12.1 0 2 13 58 4 (0) 2 7 32 (0) Mar-13 20 17 13 12.2 10.2 8.7 7.7 110 109 0.0 21.5 2.0 na na na
Sector* 11 40,227 0 (0) 8 46 5 (0) 0 3 20 1 Dec-12 18 18 20 21.2 17.9 15.1 8.0 104 103 1.6 19.3 3.2 na na na
Energy Sanjay Mookim - 65 6212 3017
Aban Offshore ABAN IN O INR 319.5 585.0 83 250 2.4 0 0 17 (13) (15) (0) 0 11 (39) (19) Mar-12 (41) 92 28 4.3 7.4 3.8 3.0 81 107 0.5 5.7 0.4 4.1 7.6 372 Bharat Petroleum BPCL IN U INR 402.6 283.0 (30) 5,243 8.8 0 (3) (3) 11 13 (0) (3) (8) (15) 9 Mar-12 (35) (12) 19 37.3 57.5 65.3 54.8 28 23 1.1 3.2 1.8 0.3 13.7 186 Cairn India CAIR IN O INR 296.8 344.0 16 10,211 18.2 0 0 1 (9) (7) (0) 1 (4) (34) (11) Mar-12 60 (2) (12) 7.1 4.4 4.5 5.2 106 122 4.0 23.7 1.0 1.8 2.9 (28)
Essar Oil ESOIL IN U INR 81.10 65.00 (20) 1,995 4.6 0 (0) (8) 62 15 (0) (0) (13) 36 12 Mar-12 nm nm 25 nm nm 16.0 12.8 90 82 0.0 (74.5) 11.1 0.4 11.8 2,152 GAIL GAIL IN O INR 335.6 470.0 40 7,668 6.9 0 (1) 0 7 (6) (0) (1) (5) (19) (9) Mar-12 1 5 12 9.6 9.5 9.0 8.0 110 114 2.6 17.0 1.5 1.2 7.5 48 GSPL GUJS IN O INR 62.15 103.0 66 630 1.1 0 1 (10) (1) (19) (0) 1 (15) (27) (23) Mar-12 (5) (15) 12 6.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 103 91 3.7 18.8 1.2 4.0 4.4 27
Hindustan Petroleum HPCL IN U INR 304.9 261.0 (14) 1,860 7.9 0 (2) (4) (1) 5 (0) (2) (9) (27) 1 Mar-12 (39) 45 (3) 11.3 18.6 12.9 13.3 83 66 2.7 4.2 0.8 0.2 10.6 249 Indian Oil IOCL IN N INR 304.5 275.0 (10) 13,317 5.1 0 (2) 0 12 13 (0) (1) (5) (13) 9 Mar-12 78 (5) 2 17.5 9.8 10.4 10.2 123 92 3.6 12.0 1.1 0.4 8.4 114 Oil India OINL IN N INR 591.2 495.0 (16) 6,401 4.6 0 2 6 34 27 (0) 2 1 8 23 Mar-12 (7) 15 12 10.2 11.0 9.6 8.6 92 90 3.0 17.2 1.8 2.4 5.9 (65)
ONGC ONGC IN U INR 327.1 239.0 (27) 50,410 24.1 0 (2) (0) 34 22 (0) (2) (6) 8 19 Mar-12 (24) 28 (1) 9.9 13.1 10.3 10.4 85 91 2.7 14.9 1.9 1.7 4.9 (5) Petronet LNG PLNG IN N INR 143.1 131.0 (8) 1,933 3.1 0 (1) 5 9 (9) (0) (0) 0 (17) (13) Mar-12 9 (14) (10) 10.2 9.3 10.8 12.0 100 98 1.6 28.9 2.4 0.4 6.4 54 Reliance Inds RIL IN O INR 827.4 1,006 22 48,127 51.6 0 1 5 20 (1) (0) 1 (0) (6) (5) Mar-12 5 3 22 13.7 13.1 12.7 10.4 89 95 1.1 11.6 1.4 0.8 9.7 22
Sector* (2) 148,047 0 (1) 2 21 9 (0) (0) (4) (4) 5 Dec-12 10 7 na 11.6 10.6 9.9 na 95 92 2.5 13.8 1.4 0.6 6.5 37
Healthcare Anubhav Aggarwal - 91 22 6777 3808
Cadila CDH IN N INR 788.1 800.0 2 2,907 1.6 0 (5) 2 6 (13) (0) (4) (3) (20) (16) Mar-12 (8) 29 18 24.7 26.9 20.8 17.7 100 95 0.7 21.5 5.4 3.0 18.3 69 Cipla CIPLA IN O INR 417.1 475.0 14 6,033 12.6 0 1 5 34 1 (0) 2 (0) 8 (3) Mar-12 51 (1) 15 31.5 20.9 21.2 18.4 103 96 1.0 19.3 3.8 3.9 14.8 (14) Glaxo GLXO IN N INR 2,276 2,055 (10) 3,472 1.3 0 (1) 4 14 5 (0) (1) (2) (11) 1 Dec-11 (6) 27 (6) 31.4 33.2 26.1 27.7 82 101 2.6 25.4 7.8 6.3 20.4 (107)
Glenmark GNP IN O INR 573.8 545.0 (5) 2,800 6.2 0 3 19 61 9 (0) 3 14 35 5 Mar-12 33 11 21 33.4 25.0 22.6 18.6 101 90 0.4 23.1 5.2 3.5 17.5 67 Lupin LPC IN N INR 768.9 755.0 (2) 6,200 9.8 0 (2) 12 41 25 (0) (1) 7 15 22 Mar-12 39 11 15 36.2 26.1 23.5 20.3 101 95 0.7 28.9 6.8 3.7 17.2 18 Ranbaxy RBXY IN N INR 436.4 420.0 (4) 3,326 7.6 0 (6) (4) (11) (13) (0) (6) (9) (37) (17) Dec-11 nm (35) 16 nm 16.5 25.4 22.0 97 70 1.0 34.3 5.1 1.6 10.1 35
Dr. Reddy DRRD IN O INR 2,019 2,180 8 6,178 13.2 0 (2) 7 22 10 (0) (2) 2 (4) 7 Mar-12 13 20 11 24.2 21.5 17.9 16.2 92 103 1.0 25.0 4.9 3.1 14.0 12 Sun Pharma SUNP IN O INR 973.7 900.0 (8) 18,163 13.7 0 0 5 69 32 (0) 0 (0) 43 29 Mar-12 32 11 11 39.0 29.5 26.6 23.9 106 101 0.6 25.3 6.8 8.5 19.4 (42) Torrent TRP IN O INR 723.8 815.0 13 1,103 0.1 0 1 6 18 (0) (0) 1 1 (8) (4) Mar-12 8 17 19 16.5 15.3 13.1 11.0 98 99 1.5 29.7 4.1 2.0 11.8 (10)
Sector* (1) 50,180 0 (1) 6 41 15 (0) (1) 1 15 12 Dec-12 10 12 na 25.9 23.5 20.9 na 97 92 0.9 22.8 4.9 3.7 15.6 (13)
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Arnab Mitra - 91 22 6777 3806
Jubilant Foodworks JUBI IN U INR 1,113 860.0 (23) 1,309 10.4 0 3 3 (2) (14) (0) 4 (2) (27) (17) Mar-12 29 22 29 68.6 53.3 43.8 33.9 102 97 0.0 37.1 16.7 5.1 29.6 (11)
Media Jatin Chawla - 91 22 6777 3719
Dish TV DITV IN O INR 70.25 84.00 20 1,348 4.4 0 6 0 22 (8) (0) 7 (5) (4) (11) Mar-12 nm nm 350 nm nm 151.2 33.6 145 185 0.0 58.3 nm 3.8 15.0 nm
Hathway Cable HATH IN U INR 282.3 237.0 (16) 728 0.9 0 (3) 9 72 (0) (0) (2) 4 46 (4) Mar-12 nm nm 39 nm nm 98.7 70.9 93 136 0.0 (4.4) 4.1 3.9 21.1 44 Sun TV SUNTV IN O INR 423.9 488.0 15 3,009 10.0 0 (3) 3 68 (1) (0) (3) (2) 42 (5) Mar-12 (2) 23 28 24.0 24.5 19.9 15.6 96 101 2.2 24.7 5.8 9.0 11.8 (14) ZEE Z IN O INR 244.9 242.0 (1) 4,232 12.4 0 (3) 11 97 11 (0) (3) 6 71 7 Mar-12 25 14 22 39.9 31.8 27.8 22.7 103 98 0.8 20.0 5.9 6.0 23.0 (33)
Sector* 6 9,317 0 (2) 7 74 4 (0) (1) 2 49 (0) Dec-12 33 35 248 41.3 31.2 23.2 21.9 101 103 1.3 21.5 6.2 5.0 13.8 (8)
Metals & Mining Anubhav Aggarwal / Neelkanth Mishra - 91 22 6777 3808 / 91 22 6777 3716
Coal India COAL IN O INR 307.1 420.0 37 34,941 13.4 0 2 (2) 0 (14) (0) 3 (7) (25) (17) Mar-12 2 19 20 13.1 12.8 10.8 8.9 90 100 3.6 34.0 4.0 1.9 6.4 (137) Gujarat Mineral Dev GMDC IN O INR 144.2 230.0 60 826 0.7 0 (4) (0) (12) (33) (0) (4) (6) (38) (37) Mar-12 39 34 10 9.4 6.8 5.1 4.6 110 124 2.1 29.0 1.8 2.3 4.4 (10) Hindalco HNDL IN O INR 110.3 135.0 22 3,804 16.1 0 2 15 3 (16) (0) 2 10 (23) (19) Mar-12 (5) 3 15 6.2 6.6 6.4 5.5 117 118 1.5 9.6 0.6 0.8 7.7 115
Hindustan Zinc HZ IN O INR 117.9 151.0 28 8,970 2.1 0 (0) 5 3 (13) (0) (0) (0) (23) (17) Mar-13 4 11 3 7.2 6.9 6.3 6.0 106 113 2.7 20.5 1.3 1.6 3.1 (69) JSPL JSP IN N INR 303.3 360.0 19 5,107 16.6 0 (3) (11) (34) (32) (0) (3) (16) (60) (36) Mar-12 (27) (1) 11 7.2 9.7 9.9 8.9 83 78 0.4 14.5 1.3 2.6 7.9 101 JSW Steel JSTL IN U INR 692.1 400.0 (42) 2,782 15.3 0 0 (5) 17 (15) (0) 0 (10) (9) (18) Mar-12 61 13 20 28.7 17.9 15.9 13.3 56 55 3.0 5.0 0.9 1.1 6.9 132
SAIL SAIL IN U INR 61.80 50.00 (19) 4,598 5.7 0 (2) (2) (33) (32) (0) (2) (7) (58) (36) Mar-12 (22) (8) (4) 7.2 9.2 10.1 10.5 92 77 2.5 6.7 0.6 0.9 8.3 39 Sterlite STLT IN O INR 95.70 135.0 41 5,794 12.6 0 (1) 8 (0) (18) (0) (0) 3 (26) (22) Mar-12 26 17 18 6.7 5.3 4.5 3.9 98 114 2.2 12.7 0.6 0.4 1.6 (23) Tata Steel TATA IN U INR 308.7 300.0 (3) 5,400 30.8 0 0 1 (23) (28) (0) 0 (4) (48) (32) Mar-12 (85) 305 2 5.6 36.0 8.9 8.7 133 107 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.7 8.2 135
Sector* 25 72,221 0 1 0 (5) (18) (0) 1 (5) (31) (22) Dec-12 11 15 5 10.0 9.0 7.8 6.1 98 101 3.0 14.7 1.3 1.0 5.6 19
Real Estate Kush Shah - 91 22 6777 3862
DLF DLFU IN U INR 240.7 167.0 (31) 7,715 41.1 0 (0) (4) 29 4 (0) (0) (9) 4 1 Mar-11 (13) 23 37 26.5 30.5 24.7 18.0 110 163 0.7 5.0 1.5 6.8 14.7 81
Retailing Arnab Mitra - 91 22 6777 3806
Titan TTAN IN O INR 275.1 325.0 18 4,399 12.7 0 (3) 0 19 (3) (0) (3) (5) (7) (7) Mar-12 21 19 24 40.7 33.8 28.4 22.9 100 97 1.4 42.7 12.6 2.3 23.6 (58)
Small Cap Companies Anantha Narayan - 91 22 6777 3730
Cox & Kings COXK IN O INR 115.1 170.0 48 283 0.5 0 (2) (11) (20) (14) (0) (2) (16) (45) (18) Mar-12 276 19 9 21.6 5.7 4.8 4.4 119 120 0.0 20.6 1.1 3.2 7.4 277
MCX MCX IN O INR 935.2 1,600 71 859 3.9 0 (1) 10 3 (36) (0) (0) 5 (23) (40) Mar-12 4 27 23 16.6 15.9 12.6 10.2 101 130 3.2 28.2 4.2 6.3 10.4 (136) Mcleod Russel MCLR IN O INR 317.9 400.0 26 627 2.0 0 1 4 18 (9) (0) 1 (1) (8) (13) Mar-12 1 26 10 11.5 11.4 9.0 8.2 102 100 2.0 16.4 1.8 2.1 8.3 (3) Sector* 51 1,769 0 (0) 5 4 (23) (0) 0 (0) (21) (27) Dec-12 26 16 na 11.9 9.5 8.1 na 113 114 2.8 21.8 1.9 2.6 6.5 33
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India—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Technology Anantha Narayan / Sagar Rastogi - 91 22 6777 3730 / 91 22 6777 3851
HCL Tech HCLT IN O INR 736.2 950.0 29 9,236 22.0 0 (1) 2 51 19 (0) (1) (3) 25 15 Jun-12 29 11 12 16.9 13.1 11.8 10.5 101 107 1.7 32.3 3.7 1.9 8.5 (22) Hexaware HEXW IN O INR 77.50 120.0 55 416 5.2 0 (4) (9) (38) (9) (0) (4) (14) (64) (13) Dec-12 2 19 15 7.1 7.0 5.9 5.1 104 113 6.7 25.6 1.7 0.8 3.9 (45) InfoEdge INFOE IN O INR 380.3 430.0 13 748 0.3 0 4 7 1 10 (0) 5 2 (25) 7 Mar-13 4 32 29 36.1 34.8 26.4 20.4 92 96 0.4 18.1 5.9 6.5 23.9 (75)
Infosys Ltd INFO IN N INR 2,397 2,450 2 24,676 80.7 0 2 7 2 3 (0) 2 2 (23) (0) Mar-13 3 14 12 14.5 14.1 12.4 11.0 100 104 2.3 22.7 3.0 2.5 9.0 (61) Mindtree MTCL IN N INR 816.9 900.0 10 611 1.3 0 (4) (4) 34 20 (0) (3) (9) 8 16 Mar-13 17 13 13 10.5 9.0 7.9 7.0 104 108 1.0 24.6 2.0 1.0 5.4 (36) NIIT Tech NITEC IN O INR 260.1 350.0 35 282 0.6 0 (0) (5) (11) 7 (0) (0) (10) (37) 4 Mar-13 8 15 14 7.3 6.8 5.9 5.2 96 99 3.5 19.6 1.2 0.5 3.3 (25)
Mahindra Satyam SCS IN N INR 108.1 122.0 13 2,293 7.0 0 (2) 0 51 1 (0) (1) (5) 25 (3) Mar-13 2 14 13 9.6 9.5 8.3 7.4 98 101 0.0 28.0 2.3 1.2 6.1 (39) Tata Consultancy TCS IN O INR 1,493 1,760 18 52,635 38.6 0 2 5 22 19 (0) 2 (0) (4) 15 Mar-13 14 17 11 21.0 18.4 15.7 14.1 101 105 1.9 34.8 5.8 3.7 13.1 (33) Tech Mahindra TECHM IN N INR 909.8 1,040 14 2,104 10.2 0 (5) (3) 47 (2) (0) (4) (8) 22 (6) Mar-13 5 12 12 8.6 8.1 7.3 6.5 107 112 0.8 24.3 1.7 1.5 7.3 0
Wipro WPRO IN O INR 339.0 400.0 18 15,039 14.9 0 (2) (0) 1 (2) (0) (2) (5) (25) (6) Mar-13 5 16 14 12.6 12.0 10.3 9.0 105 111 2.6 22.5 2.5 1.9 8.8 (20) Sector* 15 108,041 0 1 4 18 11 (0) 1 (1) (8) 8 Dec-12 12 14 13 16.9 15.0 13.1 11.9 102 106 1.9 27.8 3.8 2.6 10.5 (35)
Telecommunication Services Sunil Tirumalai - 91 22 6777 3714
Bharti Airtel BHARTI IN O INR 305.0 385.0 26 21,958 31.2 0 (5) 1 4 (4) (0) (5) (4) (22) (7) Mar-13 156 51 34 51.9 20.3 13.4 10.0 124 132 0.3 10.8 2.1 2.0 6.1 95 Idea Cellular IDEA IN O INR 129.2 135.0 4 7,712 8.5 0 (1) 15 66 25 (0) (0) 10 41 21 Mar-13 69 42 22 42.3 25.1 17.7 14.5 107 111 0.0 11.4 2.7 2.0 7.3 67
Reliance Comm RCOM IN U INR 111.3 50.00 (55) 4,138 33.3 0 (3) 14 73 51 (0) (3) 9 47 47 Mar-12 (24) 6 19 24.8 32.6 30.7 25.8 105 66 0.2 1.9 0.6 2.4 7.5 71 Sector* 11 33,808 0 (4) 6 26 9 (0) (4) 1 1 6 Dec-12 62 55 35 41.2 25.5 16.4 11.6 110 117 0.2 6.8 1.7 2.1 6.7 84
Utilities Amish Shah - 91 22 6777 3743
Adani Power ADANI IN U INR 60.65 44.00 (27) 2,615 3.8 0 25 25 21 (2) (0) 25 20 (5) (5) Mar-12 nm nm 15 nm nm 15.5 13.5 105 306 0.0 (42.8) 3.4 8.7 55.0 1,030 Jaiprakash Power JPVL IN O INR 27.40 38.00 39 1,450 2.5 0 1 4 (25) (27) (0) 1 (1) (51) (31) Mar-12 (21) 73 12 18.0 22.9 13.3 11.8 92 83 0.9 5.9 1.2 11.6 14.8 300
KSK KSK IN O INR 53.65 110.0 105 360 0.1 0 11 11 (9) (11) (0) 11 6 (35) (15) Mar-12 230 (14) 303 51.3 15.5 18.1 4.5 81 47 0.0 4.3 0.6 6.3 14.6 279 Lanco LANCI IN U INR 10.67 10.00 (6) 463 3.4 0 (2) (3) (11) (21) (0) (2) (8) (37) (25) Mar-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 141.4 86 52 0.0 (17.2) 0.6 2.7 13.5 703 NHPC NHPC IN O INR 20.25 23.00 14 4,487 8.1 0 (2) (6) 12 (20) (0) (2) (11) (14) (24) Mar-12 10 7 4 11.7 10.6 9.9 9.5 101 96 3.0 8.0 0.8 5.2 7.9 35
NTPC NTPC IN O INR 152.4 170.0 12 22,635 17.2 0 (3) 2 8 (3) (0) (3) (3) (18) (6) Mar-12 12 5 16 14.0 12.6 12.0 10.4 92 96 3.1 13.0 1.6 2.2 9.0 60 Reliance Power RPWR IN U INR 81.00 87.00 7 4,093 12.9 0 2 10 (10) (13) (0) 2 4 (36) (17) Mar-12 17 2 (12) 26.2 22.5 22.0 25.1 100 98 0.0 5.6 1.2 12.2 26.6 124 Tata Power TPWR IN U INR 92.75 83.00 (11) 3,965 5.2 0 (1) (3) 3 (16) (0) (1) (8) (23) (20) Mar-12 (42) 17 11 12.5 21.5 18.4 16.6 90 84 1.3 8.7 1.9 1.5 7.5 203
Sector* 8 40,068 0 (0) 3 5 (8) (0) 0 (2) (21) (12) Dec-12 25 20 na 17.9 14.3 12.0 na 96 93 2.3 9.7 1.3 2.7 9.6 146
Country Average* SENSEX 20,150 21,326 6 883,894 0 (0) 5 26 4 Dec-12 14 16 17 16.1 14.2 12.2 11.5 99 99 1.9 16.2 2.2 1.3 8.5 39
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Indonesia—valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1 Automobiles & Components
Teddy Oetomo / Dian Haryokusumo - 62 21 2553 7911 / 62 21 255 37974
Astra International ASII IJ O IDR 7,150 9,000 26 29,648 27.3 0 1 (8) 4 (6) (1) (1) (13) (26) (27) Dec-12 24 17 12 14.9 12.0 10.2 9.2 118 121 4.0 31.1 3.4 1.5 9.9 34 Indomobil IMAS IJ U IDR 5,250 4,800 (9) 1,487 2.9 0 0 0 (38) (1) (1) (3) (4) (68) (22) Dec-12 13 72 24 16.7 14.8 8.6 7.0 105 137 1.1 17.5 2.4 0.9 20.9 107 Sector* 24 31,135 0 1 (8) 2 (6) (1) (1) (12) (28) (27) Dec-12 24 19 12 15.0 12.1 10.2 9.0 118 121 3.9 30.2 3.4 1.5 10.2 38
Banks Teddy Oetomo - 62 21 2553 7911
BCA BBCA IJ N IDR 11,000 11,000 0 27,779 11.5 0 0 1 48 21 (1) (3) (4) 18 (0) Dec-12 11 17 25 23.0 20.8 17.8 14.3 95 94 1.6 23.2 4.5 na na na
BNI BBNI IJ O IDR 5,400 6,300 17 10,212 11.6 0 0 1 42 46 (1) (3) (4) 12 25 Dec-12 15 15 23 14.3 12.4 10.8 8.8 99 97 2.4 17.7 2.1 na na na BRI BBRI IJ N IDR 9,450 9,000 (5) 23,878 24.5 0 2 9 59 36 (1) (0) 4 29 15 Dec-12 (5) 4 13 12.5 13.1 12.6 11.1 90 84 1.5 24.8 3.0 na na na BTN BBTN IJ N IDR 1,410 1,700 21 1,496 3.9 0 5 (12) 16 (3) (1) 3 (16) (14) (24) Dec-12 22 24 26 10.9 9.0 7.3 5.8 97 97 0.0 17.9 1.5 na na na
Bank Danamon BDMN IJ R IDR 6,000 5,831 2.4 0 (2) (2) 4 6 (1) (5) (7) (25) (15) Dec-11 6 27 18 15.7 14.7 11.6 9.8 97 109 2.4 14.5 2.0 na na na BJB BJBR IJ N IDR 1,220 1,350 11 1,200 2.1 0 (1) 1 23 15 (1) (3) (4) (7) (6) Dec-12 13 18 23 9.9 8.8 7.5 6.1 97 97 7.8 20.2 1.6 na na na Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ O IDR 10,350 12,750 23 24,489 21.9 0 2 (3) 45 28 (1) (1) (8) 15 7 Dec-12 16 16 15 15.6 13.4 11.5 10.1 102 100 1.5 22.4 2.8 na na na
BTPN BTPN IJ O IDR 5,250 6,000 14 3,109 0.5 0 (4) 4 40 0 (1) (6) (1) 10 (21) Dec-12 15 19 28 15.0 13.1 11.0 8.5 98 99 0.0 25.6 3.0 na na na Sector* 8 97,994 0 1 1 45 27 (1) (2) (3) 16 6 Dec-12 9 13 19 15.6 14.3 12.6 10.6 97 95 1.7 21.7 2.9 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Ella Nusantoro - 62 21 255 37917
Indocement INTP IJ N IDR 25,450 20,500 (19) 9,596 7.6 0 (1) 4 44 13 (1) (3) (1) 14 (8) Dec-11 20 16 13 26.0 21.8 18.9 16.7 90 93 1.2 24.8 4.9 5.2 14.3 (45)
Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ U IDR 3,225 3,000 (7) 2,531 2.6 0 2 (11) 22 11 (1) (0) (16) (8) (10) Dec-12 (1) 13 12 18.3 18.6 16.4 14.7 104 102 2.0 15.1 2.7 2.7 10.3 23 Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ O IDR 18,850 21,500 14 11,452 12.4 0 1 2 71 19 (1) (2) (2) 41 (2) Dec-12 22 18 15 23.1 19.0 16.1 13.9 101 104 2.0 30.7 5.3 4.6 11.8 (6) Sector* (2) 23,580 0 0 2 55 16 (1) (2) (3) 25 (5) Dec-12 16 15 15 21.9 18.9 16.4 14.2 98 99 1.7 25.0 4.3 4.2 11.7 (15)
Capital Goods Dian Haryokusumo - 62 21 255 37974
United Tractors UNTR IJ O IDR 17,250 26,000 51 6,591 10.0 0 3 (5) (36) (12) (1) 0 (10) (65) (33) Dec-12 13 25 11 11.1 9.9 7.9 7.1 120 125 3.7 20.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 4
Consumer Staples Agus Sandianto / Ella Nusantoro - 62 21 255 37916 / 62 21 255 37917
Astra Agro AALI IJ O IDR 17,700 21,950 24 2,855 2.3 0 2 (5) (7) (10) (1) (0) (10) (37) (31) Dec-12 (12) 8 3 11.6 13.1 12.1 11.8 98 98 4.3 22.4 2.8 2.3 8.0 5 Bumitama BAL SP N SGD 1.02 1.04 2 1,416 0.8 0 0 (0) 14 (4) (1) (3) (5) (16) (25) Dec-12 4 35 9 18.5 17.8 13.2 12.1 85 90 0.6 14.8 2.5 3.6 11.1 19 BW Plantation BWPT IJ N IDR 1,010 1,110 10 419 2.1 0 (3) 0 (21) (27) (1) (5) (4) (51) (48) Dec-12 (6) 39 21 15.6 16.5 11.8 9.7 73 72 1.0 14.2 2.2 6.1 12.4 162
Charoen Pokphand CPIN IJ O IDR 5,350 5,400 1 8,986 4.4 0 10 13 98 47 (1) 8 8 68 26 Dec-11 33 22 22 37.3 28.0 23.0 18.8 117 104 0.8 42.5 10.2 4.0 20.9 (10) First Resources FR SP O SGD 1.90 2.47 30 2,389 3.3 0 (2) 8 15 (6) (1) (5) 3 (15) (27) Dec-12 (3) 8 10 11.3 11.6 10.7 9.8 100 93 3.1 18.0 2.0 3.5 7.5 6 Gudang Garam GGRM IJ U IDR 56,300 46,100 (18) 11,096 8.9 0 5 13 (6) 0 (1) 2 9 (36) (21) Dec-11 (13) 23 19 22.1 25.5 20.7 17.5 106 101 1.8 16.6 4.1 2.3 16.2 30
Indofood CBP ICBP IJ O IDR 12,500 8,100 (35) 7,466 3.8 0 4 18 117 60 (1) 2 13 88 39 Dec-11 11 17 12 36.9 33.4 28.6 25.5 100 100 1.4 20.2 6.4 3.1 19.9 (44) Indofood Agri IFAR SP N SGD 1.09 1.23 13 1,253 2.1 0 (2) (3) (16) (18) (1) (5) (8) (46) (39) Dec-12 (26) 32 8 11.6 15.7 11.9 11.0 77 81 1.7 5.5 0.9 1.2 5.4 11 Indofood Sukses INDF IJ N IDR 7,600 6,850 (10) 6,835 8.8 0 5 3 61 30 (1) 2 (1) 31 9 Dec-10 13 7 14 22.6 20.1 18.8 16.5 108 109 1.8 18.6 3.5 1.5 7.6 11
Japfa Comfeed JPFA IJ O IDR 2,025 2,160 7 2,211 0.8 0 7 2 134 65 (1) 5 (2) 104 44 Dec-11 80 27 36 34.0 18.9 14.9 11.0 113 107 0.4 28.4 4.7 1.3 11.6 63 London Sumatra LSIP IJ N IDR 1,640 1,940 18 1,146 2.9 0 6 (7) (33) (29) (1) 3 (11) (63) (50) Dec-12 (28) 17 16 10.0 13.9 11.8 10.2 72 74 4.0 12.5 1.7 2.1 7.4 (33) Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ N IDR 1,940 2,150 11 376 0.4 0 (3) (8) (32) (22) (1) (5) (12) (62) (43) Dec-12 (21) 29 10 11.1 14.0 10.8 9.9 79 81 3.1 9.7 1.3 1.5 7.8 25
Salim Ivomas SIMP IJ N IDR 830.0 990.0 19 1,345 1.3 0 2 (8) (34) (28) (1) (0) (12) (63) (49) Dec-12 (30) 39 9 11.3 16.2 11.7 10.7 65 75 2.6 5.9 0.9 1.5 6.6 28 Unilever Indon UNVR IJ U IDR 30,950 15,725 (49) 24,188 6.9 0 10 38 47 48 (1) 8 33 17 27 Dec-12 6 6 10 48.8 45.9 43.4 39.4 96 92 2.0 124.9 55.2 7.5 32.9 31 Sector* (21) 71,980 0 7 18 48 31 (1) 4 14 18 10 Dec-12 7 17 13 25.0 23.4 20.0 17.7 97 97 1.9 20.4 4.5 2.6 13.3 8
Energy Ami Tantri - 62 21 2553 7976
AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ N IDR 5,400 5,300 (2) 2,146 4.4 0 4 2 47 30 (1) 1 (3) 17 9 Dec-12 27 53 45 31.8 25.0 16.4 11.3 102 116 1.2 19.1 4.5 0.8 16.0 32
Healthcare Ella Nusantoro - 62 21 255 37917
Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ N IDR 1,500 1,100 (27) 7,202 9.7 0 3 13 92 42 (1) 0 8 62 21 Dec-12 28 16 17 43.9 34.4 29.6 25.3 103 99 1.1 25.6 7.9 4.3 23.9 (25)
Media Ella Nusantoro - 62 21 255 37917
Media Nusantara MNCN IJ N IDR 3,400 3,550 4 4,860 5.8 0 (2) 5 68 36 (1) (5) 1 38 15 Dec-12 20 18 20 28.6 23.9 20.2 16.8 97 92 1.7 24.8 5.5 6.0 16.5 (38) Surya Citra SCMA IJ N IDR 2,850 2,850 0 4,268 0.7 0 (3) 7 61 27 (1) (5) 2 31 6 Dec-12 (79) 23 18 6.0 28.6 23.3 19.8 93 91 3.5 61.2 16.2 10.3 20.6 (53)
Sector* 2 9,128 0 (2) 6 65 32 (1) (5) 1 35 11 Dec-12 (60) 20 19 10.4 25.9 21.6 18.1 95 92 2.6 33.2 8.0 7.5 18.2 (42)
Metals & Mining Ami Tantri / Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 62 21 2553 7976 / 66 2 614 6210
ABM Investama ABMM IJ N IDR 3,100 3,000 (3) 874 0.1 0 1 (6) (14) 3 (1) (2) (11) (44) (18) Dec-12 535 43 47 64.1 10.1 7.1 4.8 89 91 0.0 22.3 2.0 1.2 4.7 119 Adaro Energy ADRO IJ N IDR 1,110 1,200 8 3,637 5.0 0 2 (10) (35) (30) (1) (1) (14) (65) (51) Dec-12 (14) 20 37 9.4 11.0 9.2 6.7 86 103 2.7 12.4 1.3 1.5 5.3 52 Delta Dunia Makmur DOID IJ N IDR 190.0 200.0 5 159 0.8 0 1 (1) (56) 24 (1) (2) (6) (86) 3 Dec-12 nm nm 70 nm nm 8.0 4.7 nm 88 0.0 (10.3) 2.0 1.1 4.0 1,025
Harum Energy HRUM IJ N IDR 4,225 3,800 (10) 1,170 3.7 0 10 (11) (36) (30) (1) 7 (15) (66) (51) Dec-12 (40) 40 62 8.9 14.7 10.5 6.5 64 76 3.4 16.7 1.9 0.8 5.4 (63) Indika Energy INDY IJ O IDR 1,050 1,500 43 560 1.3 0 3 (15) (47) (26) (1) 0 (20) (77) (47) Dec-12 (35) 158 44 8.2 12.6 4.9 3.4 62 113 4.0 5.5 0.7 1.1 4.1 51 ITM ITMG IJ N IDR 33,600 36,000 7 3,889 3.7 0 7 (12) (4) (19) (1) 4 (16) (34) (40) Dec-12 (30) 16 na 9.0 12.9 11.1 na 94 98 6.6 31.1 4.1 1.6 7.7 (40)
PT Bukit Asam PTBA IJ O IDR 15,000 18,000 20 3,540 3.7 0 7 (2) (12) (1) (1) 5 (6) (42) (22) Dec-12 4 13 40 11.9 11.5 10.2 7.3 110 111 5.2 33.0 3.5 2.3 7.4 (56) Sector* 10 13,829 0 5 (8) (20) (17) (1) 3 (13) (50) (38) Dec-12 (10) 33 48 10.9 12.1 9.1 5.8 89 100 4.4 18.1 2.1 1.5 5.7 29
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Indonesia—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS Yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Real Estate Teddy Oetomo - 62 21 2553 7911
Alam Sutera ASRI IJ O IDR 1,080 1,370 27 2,174 7.8 0 0 4 86 80 (1) (3) (1) 56 59 Dec-12 19 32 12 17.8 14.9 11.3 10.1 95 96 1.4 27.5 3.7 6.0 12.1 30 Bekasi Fajar BEST IJ O IDR 990.0 1,200 21 976 2.5 0 2 4 111 46 (1) (1) (0) 81 25 Dec-12 73 47 (10) 18.5 10.7 7.3 8.1 101 116 1.4 38.4 3.5 6.2 10.5 (21) Jababeka KIJA IJ O IDR 360.0 468.0 30 731 2.0 0 13 22 60 80 (1) 10 18 30 59 Dec-12 80 19 (7) 18.8 10.4 8.7 9.4 91 90 0.0 16.2 1.6 3.3 8.4 40
Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ N IDR 7,900 6,000 (24) 563 2.6 0 5 23 114 145 (1) 3 19 84 124 Dec-12 27 (15) 32 13.5 10.7 12.6 9.5 100 100 0.0 34.7 3.2 3.5 8.2 (33) Summarecon SMRA IJ N IDR 2,800 3,050 9 2,069 2.6 0 (5) 8 72 47 (1) (8) 3 42 26 Dec-12 27 6 2 25.2 19.8 18.8 18.5 110 96 1.2 25.3 4.6 5.6 14.3 23 Surya Semesta SSIA IJ O IDR 1,540 2,000 30 742 3.7 0 2 (1) 45 43 (1) (1) (5) 15 22 Dec-12 15 46 (27) 10.2 8.9 6.1 8.4 98 120 0.9 37.6 2.9 1.4 5.1 (51)
Sector* 18 7,255 0 1 8 81 67 (1) (2) 3 51 46 Dec-12 34 25 (2) 17.7 13.2 10.6 10.8 99 103 1.0 27.5 3.3 4.2 10.3 11
Retailing Dian Haryokusumo / Ella Nusantoro - 62 21 255 37974 / 62 21 255 37917
PT Ace Hardware ACES IJ N IDR 900.0 750.0 (17) 1,581 1.5 0 (1) (14) 64 10 (1) (4) (19) 34 (11) Dec-12 19 24 na 35.3 29.7 23.9 na 108 108 0.4 27.9 7.4 3.4 19.9 (28) Erajaya ERAA IJ N IDR 3,300 3,300 0 980 2.3 0 0 3 105 12 (1) (3) (1) 75 (9) Dec-12 47 14 13 22.1 15.0 13.1 11.7 105 91 2.3 22.9 3.2 0.6 11.5 17 Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ N IDR 9,300 8,100 (13) 1,581 2.9 0 4 9 30 40 (1) 1 4 0 19 Dec-12 21 27 25 35.7 29.5 23.2 18.5 97 97 0.5 21.8 5.9 1.8 12.5 34
Sector* (11) 4,142 0 1 (1) 61 22 (1) (2) (6) 31 1 Dec-12 28 21 19 30.9 24.1 19.8 15.1 103 98 0.9 23.8 5.2 1.3 14.1 11
Telecommunication Services
Colin McCallum - 852 2101 6514
BTEL BTEL IJ U IDR 50.00 40.00 (20) 157 0.1 0 0 0 (79) 0 (1) (3) (4) (109) (21) Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 100 100 0.0 (87.8) 2.4 2.9 7.1 785 XL Axiata EXCL IJ O IDR 5,200 7,500 44 4,546 3.9 0 2 0 (10) (9) (1) (1) (4) (39) (30) Dec-12 (10) 15 22 16.0 17.7 15.4 12.6 94 93 2.3 15.5 2.6 2.7 6.0 85
Indosat ISAT IJ O IDR 5,550 8,300 50 3,089 1.2 0 (3) (11) 25 (14) (1) (5) (16) (5) (35) Dec-12 225 44 52 80.4 24.7 17.2 11.3 128 115 2.0 6.4 1.5 2.0 4.3 99 Tower Bersama TBIG IJ U IDR 5,700 5,100 (11) 2,800 1.8 0 0 0 82 0 (1) (3) (4) 53 (21) Dec-12 44 31 25 31.5 21.9 16.7 13.4 106 106 1.8 26.7 5.3 14.0 17.0 189 Telkom TLKM IJ O IDR 12,250 13,000 6 25,296 21.3 0 3 2 56 35 (1) 0 (2) 26 14 Dec-12 14 6 9 18.3 16.0 15.1 13.8 101 99 4.0 26.7 4.0 2.8 5.5 (11)
Protelindo TOWR IJ N IDR 25,450 27,000 6 2,660 0.1 0 0 (2) 76 12 (1) (3) (6) 46 (9) Dec-12 138 23 24 75.0 31.5 25.7 20.7 102 95 1.3 22.5 6.6 11.2 13.4 202 Sector* 13 38,547 0 2 0 49 22 (1) (1) (4) 19 1 Dec-12 39 12 18 25.8 18.6 16.6 14.0 102 99 3.3 19.5 3.5 3.1 6.1 40
Transportation Timothy Ross / Ella Nusantoro - 65 6212 3337 / 62 21 255 37917
Garuda GIAA IJ O IDR 580.0 770.0 33 1,345 1.3 0 (3) (3) (19) (12) (1) (6) (8) (49) (33) Dec-12 30 (29) 36 12.0 9.2 13.0 9.5 108 76 2.7 14.7 1.3 1.5 15.9 67 Jasa JSMR IJ O IDR 6,800 6,750 (1) 4,736 5.3 0 2 2 31 25 (1) (0) (2) 1 4 Dec-11 22 (6) 11 34.5 28.2 30.1 27.1 102 87 1.4 18.3 4.8 9.2 15.4 61
Sector* 7 6,081 0 1 1 20 17 (1) (2) (3) (10) (4) Dec-12 11 (7) 21 21.1 20.2 22.7 19.7 95 77 1.6 14.4 2.8 2.5 15.0 61
Utilities Ami Tantri - 62 21 2553 7976
Perusahaan Gas PGAS IJ N IDR 6,200 6,000 (3) 15,395 12.5 0 (1) 3 66 35 (1) (3) (1) 37 14 Dec-12 (2) 5 7 17.3 17.7 16.9 15.8 100 96 3.0 36.7 6.1 4.7 12.4 (25)
Country Average* JCI 5,221 5,350 2 335,005 1 3 4 30 21 Dec-12 10 16 17 18.2 16.6 14.3 12.2 100 100 2.3 22.5 3.5 2.4 9.7 18
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Japan—valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Automobiles & Components Issei Takahashi / Masahiro Akita - 81 3 4550 7884 / 81 3 4550 7361
Toyota Boshoku 3116 JP U JPY 1,672 1,050 (37) 3,021 9.5 (1) 2 19 82 69 (1) 0 8 8 20 Mar-12 302 36 13 95.8 23.8 17.5 15.5 82 98 1.0 7.8 1.8 0.3 6.1 21 Bridgestone 5108 JT O JPY 3,645 4,000 10 27,816 111.9 (0) 2 (2) 114 64 (1) (0) (13) 40 15 Dec-12 59 7 7 16.6 10.5 9.8 9.2 106 104 1.5 18.2 1.8 0.9 7.0 18 Sumitomo Rubber Industries 5110 JP O JPY 1,861 2,000 7 4,760 19.5 (0) 0 2 90 80 (1) (2) (9) 16 31 Dec-12 41 6 6 13.8 9.8 9.2 8.7 107 105 1.8 18.9 1.7 0.9 5.9 70
Toyota Industries 6201 JP N JPY 4,415 3,500 (21) 13,440 22.4 (1) (1) 18 109 62 (2) (3) 7 35 13 Mar-12 (10) 47 7 23.5 26.0 17.7 16.6 100 106 1.2 4.6 1.2 1.2 13.7 41 Denso 6902 JP O JPY 4,825 4,500 (7) 37,424 88.4 (2) 2 9 98 62 (2) (0) (3) 24 14 Mar-12 95 34 8 43.5 22.3 16.6 15.4 95 103 1.1 8.4 1.8 1.1 8.4 (7) Tokai Rika 6995 JP N JPY 2,176 1,700 (22) 1,916 8.3 (0) 2 23 62 83 (1) 1 12 (12) 34 Mar-12 (75) 631 9 24.2 98.3 13.4 12.3 39 92 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.5 5.3 (7)
Nissan Motor 7201 JP O JPY 1,215 1,150 (5) 49,653 181.7 (1) 6 15 57 50 (2) 4 4 (17) 1 Mar-12 (5) 47 7 14.9 15.6 10.6 9.9 95 100 2.1 9.8 1.5 1.0 10.6 109 Isuzu Motors 7202 JP O JPY 877.0 1,100 25 14,489 71.3 (0) 1 36 111 72 (1) (1) 24 37 23 Mar-13 26 4 5 15.4 12.2 11.7 11.1 111 107 1.6 22.3 2.5 0.7 5.7 (19) Toyota Motor 7203 JP O JPY 6,630 7,690 16 222,896 575.2 (0) 3 19 115 66 (1) 1 8 41 17 Mar-13 74 4 9 21.8 12.5 12.1 11.1 109 100 2.5 13.2 1.6 0.9 7.3 0
Hino Motors 7205 JP N JPY 1,717 1,830 7 9,567 31.3 0 3 27 226 122 (0) 1 15 152 74 Mar-13 54 (4) 10 20.5 13.3 13.9 12.6 118 111 1.7 25.3 3.1 0.7 7.2 28 Calsonic Kansei 7248 JP O JPY 509.0 500.0 (2) 1,330 9.1 (1) (4) 11 9 45 (1) (6) (0) (65) (4) Mar-12 (79) 155 25 5.6 27.3 10.7 8.5 85 112 1.5 4.0 1.1 0.2 5.0 10 Keihin 7251 JP N JPY 1,680 1,200 (29) 1,212 8.4 (2) (2) 11 33 37 (2) (4) (1) (41) (11) Mar-12 18 78 13 29.3 24.9 14.0 12.4 188 99 1.7 4.0 1.0 0.4 4.8 (3)
Aisin Seiki 7259 JP O JPY 4,035 4,000 (1) 11,089 42.2 (0) 2 7 59 51 (1) 0 (4) (15) 3 Mar-12 33 22 6 20.5 15.4 12.6 11.8 95 105 1.4 9.8 1.5 0.5 4.1 8 Mazda Motor 7261 JP N JPY 437.0 390.0 (11) 17,931 356.8 (3) 15 29 308 151 (3) 13 18 234 103 Mar-13 190 96 (17) 38.1 13.1 6.7 8.0 118 162 1.1 18.5 2.3 0.9 9.3 68 Daihatsu Motor 7262 JP O JPY 2,207 2,380 8 9,169 36.2 1 2 15 59 29 1 (0) 4 (15) (19) Mar-12 25 10 2 14.4 11.6 10.5 10.4 100 109 2.6 17.7 1.9 0.5 5.0 0
Honda Motor 7267 JP N JPY 4,250 4,710 11 74,686 249.4 (0) 2 9 63 35 (1) (0) (3) (11) (13) Mar-13 77 14 4 21.0 11.9 10.4 10.0 106 106 2.1 12.0 1.3 1.0 9.3 66 Suzuki Motor 7269 JP N JPY 2,861 3,060 7 15,650 58.3 0 0 22 71 28 0 (2) 11 (3) (21) Mar-13 34 (2) 13 20.0 14.9 15.2 13.5 108 99 0.8 9.0 1.3 0.5 4.3 (22) Fuji Heavy Industries 7270 JP O JPY 2,686 2,710 1 20,440 121.1 2 12 50 330 150 2 10 39 256 101 Mar-13 70 (5) (10) 17.5 10.3 10.9 12.0 160 133 1.1 29.7 2.7 0.9 6.4 (7)
Yamaha Motor 7272 JP U JPY 1,787 1,050 (41) 6,083 30.5 4 17 29 132 88 4 15 18 58 40 Dec-12 307 52 1 83.3 20.5 13.5 13.4 85 97 1.0 9.1 1.7 0.6 9.1 51 Exedy 7278 JP N JPY 2,738 2,200 (20) 1,281 4.4 (1) 5 25 50 45 (1) 3 13 (24) (3) Mar-12 (24) 44 19 14.3 18.8 13.1 11.0 72 104 1.8 5.5 1.0 0.6 4.7 (7) Toyoda Gosei 7282 JP N JPY 2,752 2,400 (13) 3,472 11.3 (2) 0 13 77 58 (2) (2) 1 3 10 Mar-12 134 23 8 39.7 17.0 13.8 12.7 98 102 1.3 9.2 1.5 0.6 4.3 (12)
Takata Corporation 7312 JP N JPY 2,257 1,800 (20) 1,830 5.8 (2) (2) 28 33 29 (3) (4) 17 (41) (20) Mar-12 (25) 58 26 15.7 20.9 13.2 10.4 nm 106 1.3 5.5 1.1 0.5 6.4 5 Sector* 7 549,154 (0) 3 17 111 64 (1) 1 6 37 16 Mar-12 101 61 8 39.9 19.9 12.4 11.5 100 108 1.4 9.2 1.7 0.9 10.1 26
Building Materials & Construction
Jun Yamaguchi / Shinya Yamada - 81 3 4550 9789 / 81 3 4550 9910
Asahi Glass 5201 JP N JPY 822.0 700.0 (15) 9,262 56.0 1 5 13 44 31 1 3 2 (30) (17) Dec-12 (14) 10 8 21.7 25.2 23.0 21.3 80 84 2.4 3.8 0.9 1.1 6.6 38
NSG Group 5202 JP O JPY 135.0 150.0 11 1,188 30.7 (2) 8 17 52 19 (3) 6 6 (22) (29) Mar-13 nm nm 31 nm nm 12.6 9.6 51 104 0.0 (10.4) 0.8 0.8 10.2 208 Nippon Electric Glass 5214 JP U JPY 619.0 390.0 (37) 3,002 36.2 (5) 6 32 14 27 (5) 4 21 (60) (21) Mar-13 (40) 19 7 29.1 48.1 40.5 38.0 88 140 1.6 1.3 0.6 1.0 4.9 (8) Sumitomo Osaka Cement 5232 JP O JPY 335.0 350.0 4 1,360 15.1 1 9 21 44 7 0 7 10 (30) (41) Mar-12 95 30 11 38.3 19.6 15.2 13.7 95 104 1.5 5.3 1.0 1.0 6.9 57
Taiheiyo Cement 5233 JP O JPY 321.0 270.0 (16) 3,844 55.8 1 10 31 92 36 1 8 20 18 (12) Mar-12 13 119 14 44.8 39.8 18.2 15.9 87 100 1.2 5.6 2.1 1.1 11.0 200 Toyo Tanso 5310 JP N JPY 2,351 2,100 (11) 475 3.1 (2) 2 9 (5) 33 (2) 1 (2) (79) (15) May-12 (91) 533 79 14.1 162.5 25.7 14.3 59 122 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.6 12.4 (5) NGK Insulators 5333 JP N JPY 1,563 860.0 (45) 4,977 18.6 (2) 4 39 82 54 (2) 3 27 8 5 Mar-12 nm 109 20 nm 48.1 23.0 19.2 93 99 1.3 4.0 1.8 2.2 13.9 12
Furukawa Electric 5801 JP N JPY 306.0 200.0 (35) 2,107 15.9 (0) 22 28 73 59 (1) 21 16 (1) 11 Mar-12 nm 793 42 nm 154.3 17.3 12.2 39 117 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.6 9.4 153 Sumitomo Electric Industries 5802 JP O JPY 1,515 1,500 (1) 11,717 42.5 3 7 16 64 53 2 6 5 (10) 5 Mar-12 (22) 113 14 20.4 26.1 12.3 10.7 121 140 1.4 4.6 1.2 0.7 8.2 18 Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable 5809 JP O JPY 904.0 940.0 4 562 7.2 (4) 13 33 108 21 (4) 12 21 34 (28) Mar-12 71 44 33 30.7 18.0 12.5 9.5 115 107 1.1 11.3 1.9 1.3 8.7 (0)
Sector* (16) 38,494 0 7 22 60 41 (0) 6 11 (14) (7) Mar-12 (23) 101 31 30.7 39.8 19.8 15.2 101 107 1.8 3.0 1.2 0.9 8.4 48
Capital Goods Jun Yamaguchi / Masahiro Mochizuki / Hideyuki Maekawa / Shinji Kuroda - 81 3 4550 9789 / 81 3 4550 7389 / 81 3 4550 9723 / 81 3 4550 9994
Taisei Corporation 1801 JP N JPY 405.0 290.0 (28) 4,498 34.2 3 7 28 112 42 3 5 17 38 (7) Mar-12 nm (10) 11 390.8 28.5 31.6 28.5 81 75 1.2 5.5 1.5 0.5 15.1 63 Obayashi Corporation 1802 JP O JPY 606.0 540.0 (11) 4,245 32.1 2 1 0 92 25 1 (1) (11) 18 (23) Mar-12 128 32 18 84.6 37.2 28.1 23.8 89 83 1.3 3.4 1.3 0.5 15.9 79 Shimizu Corporation 1803 JP U JPY 425.0 260.0 (39) 3,252 19.0 1 6 13 55 32 1 4 1 (19) (17) Mar-12 250 76 60 233.2 66.7 37.9 23.7 85 109 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.4 22.8 77
HASEKO Corporation 1808 JP N JPY 146.0 80.00 (45) 2,140 65.8 5 7 (8) 181 115 5 5 (20) 107 66 Mar-12 5 8 4 21.3 20.3 18.7 18.0 86 85 0.0 9.8 1.9 0.6 11.7 92 Kajima Corporation 1812 JP U JPY 364.0 240.0 (34) 3,686 27.8 2 7 19 73 28 2 6 7 (1) (20) Mar-12 443 (24) 21 98.7 18.2 23.8 19.7 89 88 1.4 7.9 1.4 0.5 20.8 123 JGC Corporation 1963 JP O JPY 3,900 3,500 (10) 9,601 55.8 10 25 48 82 46 10 23 37 8 (3) Mar-12 14 21 3 25.2 22.1 18.3 17.8 97 110 1.1 14.5 3.0 1.3 10.1 (63)
Central Glass 4044 JP N JPY 359.0 280.0 (22) 732 3.2 (1) 2 10 17 24 (1) 0 (2) (57) (25) Mar-12 9 23 12 17.5 16.0 13.0 11.6 97 97 2.2 4.0 0.6 0.6 7.3 27 Tokai Carbon 5301 JP O JPY 340.0 380.0 12 708 7.4 1 5 3 (7) (5) 0 3 (8) (81) (54) Dec-12 136 21 7 36.4 15.4 12.7 11.9 105 98 1.8 4.2 0.6 0.8 5.0 7 Nippon Carbon 5302 JP N JPY 247.0 200.0 (19) 274 4.8 (1) 12 8 29 39 (2) 10 (3) (45) (10) Dec-12 182 50 22 66.1 23.4 15.6 12.8 100 100 2.0 3.9 0.9 1.0 5.3 9
TOTO 5332 JP O JPY 1,151 1,300 13 3,853 13.0 4 7 27 112 78 3 5 15 38 30 Mar-13 27 10 (19) 23.3 18.4 16.7 20.8 118 120 1.7 10.0 1.8 1.0 11.8 7 LIXIL Group 5938 JP O JPY 2,480 2,400 (3) 7,031 29.7 (0) (2) 16 70 29 (1) (4) 5 (4) (19) Mar-12 751 125 20 385.8 45.4 20.2 16.8 74 93 1.6 3.0 1.4 0.7 10.1 47 Rinnai 5947 JP O JPY 8,370 9,300 11 4,004 9.2 (1) 1 15 62 43 (1) (1) 4 (12) (5) Mar-13 18 8 8 21.2 18.0 16.6 15.4 112 113 0.8 12.5 2.1 1.3 8.7 (27)
Okuma Corporation 6103 JP N JPY 1,004 700.0 (30) 1,602 12.1 1 15 29 82 71 1 14 18 8 22 Mar-13 13 3 na 21.7 19.2 18.5 na 101 92 1.2 8.2 1.6 1.1 8.0 (17) Amada 6113 JP O JPY 867.0 700.0 (19) 3,228 20.9 (1) 7 18 81 56 (2) 6 6 7 8 Mar-13 230 7 na 80.2 24.3 22.7 na 120 103 1.6 3.5 0.9 1.2 9.5 (16) Mori Seiki 6141 JP U JPY 1,380 900.0 (35) 1,472 7.3 (3) 5 24 99 84 (4) 3 13 25 35 Mar-13 44 (11) na 27.6 19.2 21.7 na 96 74 1.6 7.7 1.5 1.2 12.0 40
Nabtesco Corporation 6268 JP N JPY 2,413 1,650 (32) 2,998 16.4 (1) (2) 18 35 26 (1) (4) 7 (39) (22) Mar-13 8 6 na 23.1 21.4 20.1 na 103 94 1.5 12.4 2.7 1.6 10.5 (12) SMC 6273 JP N JPY 22,840 17,000 (26) 15,263 41.3 3 2 19 72 47 3 0 7 (2) (2) Mar-13 3 5 na 24.4 23.7 22.6 na 102 98 0.7 9.4 2.2 3.6 12.1 (37) Komatsu 6301 JP O JPY 2,973 2,700 (9) 27,619 187.1 1 3 19 52 36 0 1 7 (22) (12) Mar-13 63 11 na 22.4 13.7 12.4 na 111 113 1.6 17.6 2.6 1.7 7.6 34
Hitachi Construction Machinery 6305 JP N JPY 2,792 2,300 (18) 5,769 40.2 (0) 6 29 81 56 (1) 4 17 7 7 Mar-13 67 24 na 25.2 15.0 12.2 na 115 125 1.4 10.5 1.6 1.0 7.6 56 Kubota 6326 JP U JPY 1,779 1,150 (35) 21,785 69.6 4 5 23 159 80 3 3 12 85 32 Mar-13 23 5 na 30.3 24.7 23.4 na 98 93 1.0 11.8 3.0 1.9 13.4 16 Ebara 6361 JP N JPY 596.0 380.0 (36) 2,698 24.4 (2) 10 41 95 66 (2) 8 29 21 17 Mar-13 (22) 8 na 18.1 23.1 21.5 na 78 75 0.8 6.7 1.7 0.8 8.0 20
Chiyoda Corporation 6366 JP N JPY 1,264 1,000 (21) 3,193 33.0 3 23 28 36 3 2 21 16 (38) (45) Mar-12 16 (4) 8 22.8 19.7 20.5 19.0 103 90 1.4 9.5 1.8 0.7 10.8 (12) Daikin Industries 6367 JP U JPY 5,040 3,300 (35) 14,305 74.1 2 14 29 144 71 2 12 17 70 23 Mar-13 41 14 na 33.7 23.9 21.0 na 94 93 0.7 10.0 2.5 1.3 12.5 82 Tsubakimoto Chain 6371 JP O JPY 653.0 550.0 (16) 1,184 2.8 (2) 2 28 47 35 (2) 0 17 (27) (13) Mar-13 7 9 na 16.4 15.3 14.0 na 100 96 1.2 7.6 1.2 0.8 6.1 8
NSK 6471 JP O JPY 1,096 800.0 (27) 5,770 20.3 2 8 43 117 80 2 6 31 43 32 Mar-13 73 15 na 37.6 21.8 18.9 na 98 92 1.1 8.5 1.9 0.9 9.2 37 NTN 6472 JP U JPY 375.0 200.0 (47) 1,945 22.4 (2) 14 54 42 62 (2) 12 42 (32) 14 Mar-13 nm 193 na nm 43.4 14.8 na 52 94 0.0 2.3 1.1 0.8 7.3 107 JTEKT 6473 JP N JPY 1,254 1,000 (20) 4,180 18.9 1 6 33 62 54 1 5 21 (12) 6 Mar-13 20 15 na 30.9 25.7 22.3 na 78 70 1.2 4.7 1.3 0.6 7.3 58
THK 6481 JP O JPY 2,484 2,000 (19) 3,066 21.2 (2) (7) 22 62 62 (2) (9) 10 (12) 13 Mar-13 39 8 na 32.1 23.1 21.4 na 103 91 1.0 7.3 1.7 1.4 9.5 (29)
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Japan—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily
con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Capital Goods Jun Yamaguchi / Masahiro Mochizuki / Hideyuki Maekawa / Shinji Kuroda - 81 3 4550 9789 / 81 3 4550 7389 / 81 3 4550 9723 / 81 3 4550 9994
Makita 6586 JP U JPY 6,050 3,900 (36) 8,008 30.9 (0) 4 26 123 52 (1) 2 14 49 4 Mar-13 32 7 na 26.4 20.0 18.7 na 104 104 1.5 10.9 2.2 2.0 10.5 (32) GS Yuasa 6674 JP N JPY 580.0 360.0 (38) 2,335 30.4 4 26 40 68 68 3 24 28 (6) 19 Mar-12 (17) 16 7 20.4 24.7 21.2 19.8 168 96 1.4 8.2 2.0 1.1 11.4 29 Anritsu 6754 JP O JPY 1,566 1,180 (25) 2,188 25.3 2 8 10 76 54 2 6 (2) 2 5 Mar-13 (9) 14 na 16.1 17.7 15.5 na 97 103 1.1 18.4 2.9 1.9 8.7 (38)
Keyence 6861 JP N JPY 33,300 26,000 (22) 19,699 37.9 1 (3) 11 91 40 1 (5) (0) 17 (9) Mar-13 11 na na 30.0 27.0 na na 101 na 0.2 10.0 2.6 6.3 13.5 (63) Fanuc 6954 JP O JPY 16,640 17,500 5 31,754 209.5 3 1 10 23 5 2 (1) (2) (51) (44) Mar-13 (6) 17 na 27.0 28.8 24.7 na 105 104 1.0 10.1 2.8 5.3 13.1 (68) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 7011 JP O JPY 750.0 700.0 (7) 24,536 124.0 0 5 12 131 81 (0) 3 1 57 32 Mar-12 256 53 10 102.5 28.8 18.8 17.2 90 131 0.8 6.8 1.9 1.1 11.1 50
IHI 7013 JP R JPY 448.0 6,408 41.5 4 17 25 172 102 3 15 14 98 53 Mar-11 2 9 (4) 22.1 21.6 19.9 20.7 127 99 0.7 12.5 2.6 0.7 9.7 108 Sector* (17) 255,028 2 5 20 89 50 1 4 9 15 1 Mar-12 9 29 12 29.8 27.3 21.2 18.5 97 104 1.0 8.0 2.1 1.2 12.3 22
Chemicals Jun Yamaguchi / Masami Sawato - 81 3 4550 9789 / 81 3 4550 9729
Teijin 3401 JP N JPY 270.0 230.0 (15) 2,591 20.6 (0) 9 25 13 27 (1) 7 14 (61) (22) Mar-13 nm 87 na nm 47.7 25.5 na 83 90 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.6 6.4 60 Toray Industries 3402 JP O JPY 769.0 610.0 (21) 12,213 51.5 0 3 15 39 46 (0) 1 3 (35) (2) Mar-13 28 13 na 25.8 20.2 17.9 na 97 94 1.3 8.7 1.8 1.0 9.3 50
Kuraray 3405 JP O JPY 1,640 1,700 4 5,578 23.9 0 6 17 56 46 (0) 4 6 (18) (3) Mar-13 25 8 na 19.9 15.9 14.7 na 104 103 2.2 9.0 1.4 1.3 5.4 (13) Asahi Kasei 3407 JP O JPY 741.0 670.0 (10) 10,099 38.1 0 3 14 67 46 (0) 1 2 (7) (2) Mar-13 29 7 na 19.3 14.9 13.9 na 102 96 1.9 8.7 1.3 0.8 6.6 36 SUMCO 3436 JP N JPY 1,392 1,070 (23) 3,498 29.9 (0) 13 35 93 66 (1) 11 24 19 17 Jan-13 498 66 (3) 104.7 17.5 10.6 10.9 68 98 0.0 12.1 2.0 2.4 8.6 73
Sumitomo Chemical 4005 JP N JPY 401.0 370.0 (8) 6,391 46.5 (0) 12 40 45 49 (1) 10 29 (29) 1 Mar-13 nm 87 21 nm 21.8 11.7 9.7 81 106 2.2 5.9 1.3 0.6 7.3 107 Kureha 4023 JP O JPY 392.0 480.0 22 656 3.2 1 10 14 16 25 0 9 3 (58) (23) Mar-13 71 27 26 21.0 12.2 9.6 7.6 118 111 2.6 5.5 0.6 0.9 6.2 58 Nippon Soda 4041 JP O JPY 552.0 530.0 (4) 819 3.9 2 16 30 76 40 2 14 19 2 (8) Mar-13 32 14 16 15.8 12.0 10.5 9.0 100 100 1.1 7.2 0.8 0.8 9.0 28
Tosoh 4042 JP U JPY 382.0 280.0 (27) 2,229 16.1 (0) 4 46 87 85 (1) 2 35 13 37 Mar-13 (17) 20 na 13.6 16.3 13.6 na 87 91 1.6 7.4 1.2 0.7 7.7 117 Tokuyama 4043 JP O JPY 384.0 350.0 (9) 1,303 23.4 (1) 31 59 98 103 (1) 29 48 24 55 Mar-13 nm 0 (0) nm 16.7 16.7 16.7 171 281 0.8 3.6 0.6 1.1 8.5 74 Denki Kagaku Kogyo 4061 JP N JPY 391.0 310.0 (21) 1,810 11.2 (1) (2) 19 38 33 (2) (4) 7 (36) (15) Mar-13 18 9 na 16.5 14.0 12.8 na 99 97 2.6 7.3 1.0 0.8 6.0 53
Shin-Etsu Chemical 4063 JP O JPY 7,210 7,820 8 29,872 101.6 (1) 3 9 75 38 (1) 1 (2) 1 (11) Mar-13 30 5 5 29.0 22.3 21.2 20.2 103 97 1.4 8.4 1.8 2.2 9.3 (29) Stella Chemifa 4109 JP U JPY 1,856 1,500 (19) 217 2.0 (2) 2 7 21 10 (3) (0) (5) (53) (38) Mar-13 (49) 64 39 11.6 22.7 13.8 9.9 73 110 2.0 4.8 1.1 1.1 7.2 50 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical 4182 JP O JPY 848.0 920.0 8 3,735 14.6 (2) 5 26 72 62 (2) 3 15 (2) 13 Mar-13 nm 24 9 nm 12.5 10.1 9.3 115 113 1.4 10.3 1.2 1.0 10.9 40
Mitsui Chemicals 4183 JP U JPY 303.0 210.0 (31) 2,960 30.1 5 24 55 40 36 5 22 43 (34) (13) Mar-13 nm 60 na nm 30.7 19.2 na 97 87 2.0 2.7 0.9 0.5 10.4 110 JSR 4185 JP O JPY 2,300 2,320 1 5,325 20.3 0 (1) 14 60 40 (0) (3) 2 (14) (8) Mar-13 14 12 6 18.2 16.0 14.3 13.4 103 103 1.7 10.7 1.6 1.1 6.7 (27) Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings
4188 JP N JPY 565.0 500.0 (12) 8,116 37.0 (0) 8 26 53 33 (1) 6 14 (21) (16) Mar-13 169 24 na 44.8 16.7 13.4 na 116 108 2.1 6.2 1.0 0.5 6.0 71
Zeon 4205 JP O JPY 1,222 1,260 3 2,754 13.2 4 8 26 92 64 3 6 14 18 16 Mar-13 64 12 na 19.1 11.7 10.5 na 126 127 1.0 14.9 1.7 1.2 5.5 30 Ube Industries 4208 JP N JPY 238.0 210.0 (12) 2,333 19.2 1 16 31 27 16 1 14 19 (47) (33) Mar-13 103 24 na 28.9 14.2 11.4 na 108 107 2.1 7.9 1.1 0.7 6.5 78
Hitachi Chemical 4217 JP O JPY 1,798 1,630 (9) 3,651 11.1 1 7 17 37 39 1 6 6 (37) (9) Mar-12 8 29 14 22.8 21.0 16.3 14.3 95 110 2.0 6.2 1.3 0.8 7.3 1 Nippon Kayaku 4272 JP N JPY 1,348 1,300 (4) 2,383 10.6 4 1 (2) 83 42 4 (0) (13) 9 (6) Mar-13 8 9 na 19.8 18.4 16.9 na 102 101 1.5 8.8 1.6 1.4 7.2 (0) Sector* (5) 108,533 0 6 20 61 44 (0) 4 8 (13) (5) Mar-12 (35) 146 18 29.1 44.7 18.1 15.3 95 102 1.6 3.3 1.4 0.9 9.3 43
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Masahiro Mochizuki / Shunsuke Tsuchiya / Taketo Yamate - 81 3 4550 7389 / 81 3 4550 9740 / 81 3 4550 9963
Daiwa House Industry 1925 JP O JPY 2,199 2,400 9 12,408 47.5 2 (3) 4 122 49 2 (5) (8) 48 0 Mar-12 95 20 22 38.3 19.6 16.3 13.4 98 102 1.5 9.0 1.7 0.7 8.2 26 Sekisui House 1928 JP O JPY 1,485 1,700 14 9,725 55.0 2 0 1 121 58 1 (2) (11) 47 9 Jan-13 54 36 (4) 21.5 14.0 10.3 10.7 114 135 2.0 9.2 1.2 0.7 8.3 19 Sekisui Chemical 4204 JP O JPY 1,182 1,500 27 5,950 22.4 0 (3) 3 73 58 (0) (5) (9) (1) 9 Mar-13 32 15 (10) 20.2 15.4 13.4 14.9 100 107 1.9 9.2 1.4 0.6 5.6 4
Panasonic Corporation 6752 JP O JPY 951.0 750.0 (21) 21,435 204.0 2 6 33 76 82 2 4 22 2 34 Mar-12 nm nm 147 nm nm 43.5 17.6 99 74 0.0 (48.6) 1.8 0.4 6.3 72 Sharp Corp. 6753 JP U JPY 601.0 200.0 (67) 6,834 241.5 0 30 69 62 98 (0) 28 57 (12) 50 Mar-12 nm nm 66 nm nm 120.5 72.7 121 258 0.0 (113.5) 3.8 0.7 61.0 540 Sony 6758 JP N JPY 2,290 1,600 (30) 22,572 446.4 6 11 40 105 139 5 9 29 31 91 Mar-12 nm (11) 53 nm 45.4 51.1 33.4 118 77 1.1 2.5 1.1 0.4 5.2 15
Alpine Electronics 6816 JP O JPY 1,124 850.0 (24) 765 2.7 1 2 9 27 42 1 0 (2) (47) (7) Mar-12 (67) 140 17 17.1 52.3 21.8 18.7 86 94 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 3.8 (41) Funai Electric 6839 JP R JPY 1,297 431 2.8 (2) 2 10 4 16 (2) 0 (2) (70) (33) Mar-12 nm nm 125 nm nm 55.3 24.6 208 110 0.0 (3.4) 0.4 (0.1) (14.4) (50) Casio 6952 JP N JPY 1,045 800.0 (23) 2,843 20.3 5 8 32 123 39 5 6 20 49 (10) Mar-12 299 39 4 109.9 27.5 19.8 19.0 86 98 1.6 6.7 1.8 1.1 12.4 29
Namco Bandai Holdings 7832 JP N JPY 1,783 1,350 (24) 3,819 18.5 0 1 3 91 60 (0) (1) (9) 17 11 Mar-12 34 6 0 20.7 15.4 14.6 14.6 78 95 1.7 11.7 1.7 0.7 4.6 (41) Asics 7936 JP N JPY 1,660 1,800 8 3,069 13.3 (2) (7) (6) 97 27 (2) (8) (18) 23 (22) Mar-13 15 9 9 22.9 19.9 18.3 16.7 102 101 1.1 11.4 2.1 0.9 10.0 (12) Sector* (15) 89,852 3 6 25 95 84 2 4 14 21 35 Mar-12 na na 42 nm nm 25.8 18.2 109 96 0.9 (14.7) 1.5 0.5 7.5 37
Consumer Staples Satsuki Kawasaki / Taketo Yamate - 81 3 4550 9941 / 81 3 4550 9963
Calbee 2229 JP N JPY 9,840 9,700 (1) 3,154 20.2 (0) (1) 8 127 61 (1) (3) (4) 53 13 Mar-13 8 15 15 34.1 31.5 27.5 23.8 99 99 0.7 11.3 3.4 1.5 11.8 (36)
Yakult Honsha 2267 JP N JPY 4,780 4,100 (14) 8,040 19.8 (1) (8) 8 71 27 (1) (10) (4) (3) (22) Mar-13 26 11 13 50.3 39.9 35.8 31.7 105 107 0.5 7.8 3.0 2.3 15.8 (5) Asahi Group Holdings 2502 JP O JPY 2,641 2,600 (2) 11,659 51.9 (1) (5) 13 56 44 (1) (6) 2 (18) (5) Dec-12 18 12 5 21.5 18.3 16.3 15.5 101 104 1.6 9.0 1.6 0.9 8.0 46 Kirin Holdings 2503 JP N JPY 1,832 1,800 (2) 17,056 56.5 0 (0) 14 103 81 (0) (2) 2 29 33 Dec-12 71 (32) 7 31.3 18.3 27.1 25.4 101 100 2.0 9.5 1.6 1.1 7.9 56
Lawson 2651 JP N JPY 7,730 7,200 (7) 7,529 33.2 (0) (0) 5 44 32 (1) (2) (6) (30) (17) Feb-13 8 8 na 23.3 21.6 20.0 na 96 95 2.8 15.2 3.2 1.3 5.7 (37) Kikkoman 2801 JP N JPY 1,917 1,800 (6) 3,932 14.1 (1) (3) 5 103 56 (1) (5) (6) 29 7 Mar-13 19 9 8 34.9 29.5 27.0 24.9 97 98 0.9 6.8 2.0 1.4 13.2 33 Ajinomoto 2802 JP N JPY 1,514 1,400 (8) 9,340 37.1 2 1 14 42 32 1 (1) 2 (32) (16) Mar-13 3 13 13 20.4 19.8 17.6 15.6 100 101 1.3 7.7 1.5 0.9 7.2 (16)
Toyo Suisan 2875 JP O JPY 3,500 4,000 14 3,486 17.8 3 3 8 76 52 2 1 (3) 2 4 Mar-13 23 3 3 20.7 16.8 16.3 15.8 104 104 1.4 10.3 1.7 0.7 6.0 (43) Nissin Foods Holdings 2897 JP U JPY 4,180 3,560 (15) 4,491 9.5 (2) (3) (8) 44 28 (2) (5) (20) (30) (21) Mar-13 9 5 5 24.4 22.5 21.4 20.4 106 109 1.8 6.5 1.4 1.0 9.8 (21) Japan Tobacco 2914 JP O JPY 3,690 4,000 8 65,391 183.9 0 (3) 9 79 51 (0) (5) (3) 5 3 Mar-13 24 9 12 20.0 16.1 14.8 13.2 99 99 2.5 21.4 3.2 2.8 9.0 (5)
Kao 4452 JP N JPY 3,460 3,600 4 17,287 54.7 0 (1) 4 70 54 (0) (3) (7) (4) 5 Dec-12 21 9 9 28.9 23.9 22.0 20.2 101 101 1.8 12.2 2.9 1.3 8.6 (17) Shiseido 4911 JP N JPY 1,591 1,430 (10) 6,175 40.8 1 8 6 26 31 1 6 (5) (48) (18) Mar-13 nm 13 12 nm 27.4 24.1 21.5 107 102 1.3 7.8 2.1 0.9 8.7 17 Pola Orbis Holdings 4927 JP O JPY 3,530 4,200 19 1,903 5.1 (1) (4) 3 61 43 (2) (6) (8) (13) (6) Dec-12 38 14 11 29.2 21.2 18.6 16.7 106 107 1.6 5.4 1.1 0.8 6.1 (29)
FamilyMart 8028 JP O JPY 4,630 5,000 8 4,286 26.0 (2) (0) 8 34 30 (2) (2) (3) (40) (18) Feb-13 (10) 16 na 17.6 19.6 17.0 na 93 98 2.4 9.2 1.8 1.0 5.0 (38) Unicharm 8113 JP O JPY 6,360 7,200 13 11,808 42.9 (0) (2) 4 48 41 (1) (4) (7) (26) (7) Mar-13 (2) 13 13 27.2 27.8 24.6 21.8 115 116 0.7 14.4 3.8 2.0 12.6 (3) Sector* 3 175,537 0 (2) 8 70 49 (0) (4) (3) (4) 0 Mar-12 17 24 6 28.6 24.3 19.6 18.5 101 101 1.6 11.2 2.6 1.6 9.9 13
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Japan—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Diversified Financials Takehito Yamanaka - 81 3 4550 9150
Credit Saison 8253 JP U JPY 2,798 2,080 (26) 5,010 40.5 (1) 4 1 74 31 (2) 3 (11) (0) (18) Mar-12 221 4 (0) 54.4 17.0 16.3 16.3 92 96 1.1 8.3 1.4 na na na Aeon Financial Service 8570 JP O JPY 2,890 2,790 (3) 5,353 28.4 2 2 (1) 118 66 2 (0) (12) 44 18 Mar-12 51 86 15 50.4 33.5 18.0 15.7 98 109 1.7 7.4 2.1 na na na ACOM 8572 JP O JPY 4,085 4,500 10 6,240 20.7 0 (6) 15 160 65 (0) (8) 3 86 17 Mar-12 (3) 128 8 29.8 30.8 13.5 12.5 100 137 0.0 7.8 2.3 na na na
Orix 8591 JP O JPY 1,614 1,470 (9) 19,229 125.7 (0) 7 14 131 67 (1) 5 3 57 18 Mar-12 32 18 21 25.1 19.0 16.0 13.3 83 91 0.8 7.6 1.1 na na na Daiwa Securities Group 8601 JP N JPY 991.0 890.0 (10) 16,415 133.3 (1) (1) 17 281 109 (1) (3) 6 207 60 Mar-13 64 (19) 8 23.1 14.1 17.3 16.1 122 102 2.0 12.5 1.7 na na na Nomura Holdings 8604 JP O JPY 956.0 870.0 (9) 34,218 550.6 (1) 3 26 255 90 (1) 2 15 181 42 Mar-13 148 (10) (0) 33.1 13.3 14.7 14.8 153 123 1.0 10.9 1.4 na na na
Japan Exchange Group 8697 JP N JPY 10,750 11,500 7 5,755 71.9 (2) (3) (9) na na (2) (4) (21) na na Mar-12 21 162 (2) 50.1 41.6 15.9 16.2 241 138 0.7 9.0 4.3 na na na Sector* (7) 92,220 (1) 2 16 207 82 (1) 1 5 133 33 Mar-12 250 79 (2) 90.8 25.9 14.5 14.8 96 124 0.9 6.7 1.6 na na na
Energy David Hewitt - 65 6212 3064
INPEX Corporation 1605 JP O JPY 487,000 697,000 43 17,336 77.8 (0) 4 2 5 6 (1) 2 (9) (69) (42) Mar-13 (5) 25 (20) 9.7 10.3 8.2 10.3 105 130 1.4 7.2 0.7 1.2 2.1 8
Healthcare Fumiyoshi Sakai - 81 3 4550 9737
Kyowa Hakko Kirin 4151 JP N JPY 1,227 1,100 (10) 6,549 14.2 0 (2) 3 55 45 (0) (4) (9) (19) (4) Dec-12 26 5 0 27.8 22.1 21.0 21.0 102 123 2.0 5.4 1.2 1.7 6.8 (14)
Takeda Pharmaceutical 4502 JP O JPY 4,965 5,300 7 38,218 145.2 0 (0) (6) 52 29 (0) (2) (17) (22) (20) Mar-12 33 (2) 15 31.6 23.8 24.3 21.2 126 124 3.6 8.2 1.9 2.5 14.4 (1) Astellas Pharma 4503 JP O JPY 5,750 6,300 10 25,293 94.5 1 (4) 3 88 48 1 (6) (9) 14 (0) Mar-13 41 18 22 31.9 22.6 19.1 15.6 94 99 2.3 10.6 2.3 1.9 9.1 (32) Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma 4506 JP U JPY 1,710 980.0 (43) 6,624 29.0 (0) (7) (1) 130 65 (1) (9) (13) 56 17 Mar-12 74 13 3 78.7 45.3 40.0 38.8 149 87 1.1 4.6 2.1 1.8 7.9 (9)
Shionogi 4507 JP N JPY 2,252 1,700 (25) 7,354 37.7 0 (3) (3) 128 57 (0) (5) (14) 54 8 Mar-12 24 10 3 27.8 22.5 20.4 19.8 50 94 1.8 9.5 2.1 2.6 9.8 (8) Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma 4508 JP O JPY 1,362 1,400 3 7,450 19.8 (1) (4) (7) 30 21 (1) (6) (18) (44) (27) Mar-12 4 19 13 19.6 18.9 15.9 14.2 97 108 2.9 5.6 1.0 1.6 7.3 (10) Chugai Pharmaceutical 4519 JP N JPY 2,433 2,400 (1) 12,916 28.3 0 (3) (1) 74 47 (0) (5) (12) (0) (1) Dec-12 5 5 7 27.5 26.2 25.0 23.4 100 97 1.8 10.1 2.6 2.6 12.1 (43)
Eisai 4523 JP N JPY 4,430 3,700 (16) 12,309 53.5 (1) (4) 1 39 23 (2) (6) (11) (35) (25) Mar-12 (16) (4) (23) 21.6 25.8 26.9 35.1 102 88 3.4 11.6 3.0 2.4 11.2 23 Ono Pharmaceutical 4528 JP U JPY 6,630 4,300 (35) 6,854 11.7 (0) 1 6 50 50 (1) (1) (5) (24) 2 Mar-12 (4) 9 (2) 28.9 29.9 27.6 28.1 97 97 2.7 5.9 1.7 3.9 15.6 (32) Santen Pharmaceutical 4536 JP N JPY 4,490 3,600 (20) 3,612 10.9 2 (3) (1) 55 35 1 (5) (13) (19) (13) Mar-12 (5) 11 9 22.8 24.0 21.7 20.0 96 92 2.2 9.7 2.1 2.5 10.3 (48)
Tsumura & Co 4540 JP O JPY 3,030 3,500 16 2,084 11.4 (3) (4) (4) 63 16 (3) (5) (15) (11) (32) Mar-13 9 (3) 5 13.9 12.8 13.2 12.6 106 102 2.1 13.6 1.7 2.0 7.4 8 Terumo 4543 JP N JPY 5,540 3,800 (31) 10,257 38.7 4 4 20 87 63 4 2 9 13 14 Mar-12 39 19 13 43.5 31.4 26.3 23.4 71 94 0.8 9.2 2.8 2.8 11.0 23 Sawai Pharmaceutical 4555 JP N JPY 11,950 10,000 (16) 1,766 10.9 (2) (5) (1) 42 38 (2) (7) (13) (32) (11) Mar-12 27 9 16 20.9 16.4 15.1 13.0 94 105 1.3 18.2 2.8 2.5 9.5 32
Daiichi Sankyo 4568 JP N JPY 1,935 1,600 (17) 13,281 42.9 (1) (3) 4 48 46 (1) (5) (8) (26) (2) Mar-12 382 22 18 131.2 27.2 22.3 18.9 75 91 3.1 6.2 1.7 1.3 8.1 (15) Otsuka Holdings 4578 JP N JPY 3,505 2,900 (17) 18,630 40.1 (1) (3) 1 47 44 (2) (5) (11) (27) (4) Mar-12 19 23 15 21.2 17.8 14.5 12.6 89 87 1.7 8.8 1.5 1.2 6.2 (44) Taisho Pharmaceutical 4581 JP N JPY 6,910 6,300 (9) 6,073 5.6 (2) (11) (3) 9 17 (3) (13) (14) (65) (32) Mar-12 11 5 (2) 23.3 21.0 20.0 20.3 101 98 1.7 5.0 1.0 1.7 10.5 (23)
Sysmex 6869 JP N JPY 7,040 4,800 (32) 7,085 18.3 2 3 7 135 78 2 2 (4) 61 29 Mar-12 16 29 6 60.2 51.8 40.3 38.2 99 97 0.5 13.0 6.4 4.9 23.6 (22) Sector* (9) 186,354 0 (2) 1 65 42 (0) (4) (11) (9) (6) Mar-12 22 13 10 30.7 25.2 22.2 20.2 95 99 2.4 7.8 1.9 2.1 10.3 (16)
Insurance Takehito Yamanaka - 81 3 4550 9150
NKSJ Holdings 8630 JP N JPY 2,621 2,400 (8) 10,597 37.8 1 (4) 12 78 43 0 (6) 1 4 (6) Mar-12 nm 99 (48) nm 45.5 22.8 44.0 124 130 2.3 3.4 1.6 na na na MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings
8725 JP O JPY 3,075 3,000 (2) 18,646 49.8 2 4 24 139 80 2 2 12 65 32 Mar-12 nm 10 11 nm 22.8 20.7 18.6 112 100 1.8 7.7 1.7 na na na
Sony Financial Holdings 8729 JP U JPY 1,598 1,520 (5) 6,778 26.3 (1) (1) 25 36 4 (1) (3) 13 (38) (45) Mar-12 18 1 24 21.2 17.9 17.7 14.3 92 92 1.6 10.5 1.8 na na na Dai-ichi Life Insurance 8750 JP O JPY 162,900 147,500 (9) 15,704 88.4 (0) 5 26 94 36 (1) 3 15 20 (13) Mar-12 52 31 24 79.1 52.0 39.7 31.9 96 94 1.0 3.3 1.8 na na na
Tokio Marine Holdings 8766 JP N JPY 3,500 3,300 (6) 26,173 88.1 3 4 17 96 47 3 2 6 22 (2) Mar-12 nm 35 9 448.2 24.0 17.7 16.3 96 107 1.6 9.5 2.2 na na na T&D Holdings 8795 JP N JPY 1,444 1,130 (22) 9,494 47.8 1 10 36 80 39 1 8 24 6 (10) Mar-12 51 9 3 36.6 24.3 22.4 21.6 63 88 1.6 5.8 1.4 na na na Sector* (8) 87,391 1 3 22 96 47 1 1 11 22 (1) Mar-12 na 26 5 nm 27.2 21.6 20.5 94 102 1.6 6.6 1.8 na na na
Metals & Mining Jun Yamaguchi / Kazumasa Okumoto / Shinya Yamada - 81 3 4550 9789 / 81 3 4550 7266 / 81 3 4550 9910
Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal 5401 JP N JPY 292.0 260.0 (11) 25,845 130.8 (0) 10 18 60 39 (1) 8 6 (14) (9) Mar-12 nm nm 50 682.8 nm 12.1 8.1 134 120 0.3 (4.6) 1.2 1.1 13.5 88
Kobe Steel 5406 JP U JPY 174.0 60.00 (66) 5,092 41.5 (1) 31 50 76 60 (2) 29 39 2 11 Mar-12 nm nm 142 nm nm 31.6 13.1 98 98 0.0 (5.4) 1.1 0.8 11.0 142 JFE Holdings 5411 JP N JPY 2,521 2,100 (17) 14,194 103.1 0 16 29 90 57 (0) 14 18 16 9 Mar-12 nm 233 46 nm 34.8 10.4 7.1 102 114 0.6 2.7 0.9 0.9 12.4 104 Kyoei Steel 5440 JP O JPY 1,798 2,200 22 762 2.9 (4) (3) 1 28 10 (5) (5) (11) (46) (39) Mar-12 36 201 45 46.2 34.0 11.3 7.8 111 149 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.5 7.6 (11)
Yamato Kogyo 5444 JP N JPY 3,665 2,800 (24) 2,437 6.3 (1) 4 15 74 46 (1) 2 4 0 (2) Mar-12 4 51 16 28.6 27.6 18.3 15.7 118 117 1.0 4.9 1.3 1.3 21.4 (20) Maruichi Steel Tube 5463 JP O JPY 2,742 2,500 (9) 2,265 5.7 2 1 21 64 38 1 (1) 10 (10) (10) Mar-12 (6) 79 7 31.4 33.4 18.7 17.4 66 99 1.6 3.4 1.1 1.5 8.8 (28) Daido Steel 5471 JP O JPY 649.0 540.0 (17) 2,745 8.3 0 2 22 34 50 (0) (0) 10 (40) 1 Mar-12 (62) 144 10 12.4 32.4 13.3 12.0 79 158 0.9 4.3 1.4 0.8 11.1 38
Aichi Steel 5482 JP O JPY 489.0 460.0 (6) 937 2.5 (2) 12 28 47 21 (3) 11 17 (27) (27) Mar-12 (34) 193 24 22.6 34.3 11.7 9.4 57 150 2.0 2.3 0.8 0.7 8.1 40 Hitachi Metals 5486 JP N JPY 1,195 770.0 (36) 4,258 18.0 (1) 7 24 30 63 (2) 5 13 (44) 15 Mar-12 (36) 114 10 23.5 36.6 17.1 15.5 90 83 1.5 5.1 1.8 1.0 11.9 43 Pacific Metals 5541 JP N JPY 600.0 400.0 (33) 1,142 12.0 (2) 10 22 74 49 (3) 8 10 (0) 0 Mar-12 (161) nm 2 99.7 nm 21.3 20.9 nm 147 0.0 (0.7) 1.1 1.7 12.7 (23)
Nippon Denko 5563 JP O JPY 384.0 350.0 (9) 412 4.2 1 18 24 23 50 1 16 13 (51) 2 Dec-12 nm 13 9 nm 13.9 12.4 11.3 112 102 1.3 5.6 0.8 0.6 4.1 (16) Mitsui Mining & Smelting 5706 JP N JPY 272.0 230.0 (15) 1,516 10.6 3 9 24 46 29 3 7 13 (28) (20) Mar-12 (44) 69 27 13.5 23.9 14.1 11.1 66 101 1.5 4.8 1.1 0.7 7.6 103 Toho Zinc 5707 JP N JPY 401.0 460.0 15 531 4.9 0 9 12 34 7 (0) 7 1 (40) (41) Mar-12 (208) nm 46 54.2 nm 9.6 6.6 475 126 1.0 (1.8) 0.9 0.9 12.5 76
Mitsubishi Materials 5711 JP N JPY 376.0 270.0 (28) 4,806 31.8 3 12 39 69 29 3 10 27 (5) (20) Mar-12 242 (1) 14 51.6 15.1 15.3 13.4 88 92 1.1 8.9 1.3 0.9 9.9 149 Sumitomo Metal Mining 5713 JP N JPY 1,487 1,410 (5) 8,007 57.5 3 5 14 56 23 3 3 3 (18) (25) Mar-12 1 1 (6) 12.8 12.7 12.6 13.4 75 89 1.9 9.4 1.1 1.1 8.1 11 Dowa Holdings 5714 JP U JPY 907.0 550.0 (39) 2,617 14.8 (1) 12 29 81 63 (1) 11 17 7 15 Mar-12 22 9 7 25.3 20.8 19.2 17.9 85 84 1.1 10.9 2.2 0.8 8.5 66
Osaka Titanium Technologies 5726 JP U JPY 2,365 1,650 (30) 849 5.6 1 18 28 (3) 24 1 16 17 (77) (25) Mar-12 (23) (137) nm 27.8 36.2 nm 23.3 116 38 1.5 5.5 2.0 2.4 8.1 132 Toho Titanium 5727 JP U JPY 958.0 660.0 (31) 665 3.0 6 16 24 1 13 6 14 13 (73) (36) Mar-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 77.5 104 71 0.0 (6.2) 1.7 2.9 14.2 115 Furukawa Sky 5741 JP O JPY 341.0 350.0 3 755 2.5 4 10 14 48 38 4 9 2 (26) (10) Mar-12 (25) 79 118 21.9 29.3 16.4 7.5 84 100 1.8 3.6 1.1 0.8 9.2 87
Daiseki 9793 JP N JPY 1,882 1,800 (4) 827 3.0 (2) (1) 7 46 58 (2) (3) (5) (28) 9 Feb-13 37 17 na 28.0 20.5 17.5 na 104 106 1.3 8.3 1.6 1.6 7.5 (36) Sector* (19) 80,660 0 11 24 63 43 (0) 9 12 (11) (5) Mar-12 (46) 796 39 66.7 123.0 13.7 9.9 99 109 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 11.4 77
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Japan—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Paper & Forest Products Jun Yamaguchi - 81 3 4550 9789
Oji Holdings 3861 JP O JPY 414.0 380.0 (8) 3,984 24.6 (0) 6 29 36 40 (1) 4 18 (38) (9) Mar-12 (3) 12 9 18.4 18.9 16.8 15.4 84 103 2.4 4.8 0.9 0.8 7.4 101 Nippon Paper Industries Co. Ltd 3863 JP N JPY 1,634 1,400 (14) 1,852 15.0 (0) 2 33 na na (1) 0 22 na na Mar-12 nm 125 10 nm 32.1 14.2 13.0 55 88 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.8 9.7 181 Nippon Paper Industries Co. Ltd 3893 JP N JPY 1,466 1,400 (5) 1,852 15.0 0 0 0 14 23 (0) (2) (11) (60) (26) Mar-12 nm 125 10 nm 28.8 12.8 11.6 89 93 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.8 9.7 181
Rengo 3941 JP N JPY 588.0 440.0 (25) 1,420 6.0 3 4 28 8 35 2 2 16 (66) (13) Mar-12 91 1 18 21.2 11.1 11.0 9.3 104 117 2.0 7.8 0.8 0.6 6.1 95 Sector* (11) 9,109 0 4 24 25 35 (0) 2 12 (49) (14) Mar-12 na 39 11 nm 19.8 14.2 12.8 84 100 2.4 3.4 0.7 0.8 8.4 141
Real Estate Masahiro Mochizuki - 81 3 4550 7389
Daito Trust Construction 1878 JP O JPY 9,470 12,500 32 7,355 45.0 (2) (5) 9 35 16 (2) (7) (3) (39) (32) Mar-13 7 8 5 14.6 13.7 12.7 12.1 102 102 3.7 27.6 3.5 0.5 6.1 (85) Nomura Real Estate Holdings 3231 JP U JPY 2,565 2,300 (10) 4,768 40.9 (1) 1 (3) 107 57 (2) (1) (14) 33 8 Mar-12 19 20 (5) 27.8 23.4 19.5 20.5 108 109 1.2 6.4 1.5 2.2 16.5 171
Mitsui Fudosan 8801 JP O JPY 3,270 4,400 35 28,004 167.4 1 1 (5) 156 56 0 (1) (16) 82 8 Mar-12 19 14 6 57.3 48.2 42.4 40.0 100 102 0.7 5.4 2.6 3.4 24.2 179 Mitsubishi Estate 8802 JP O JPY 2,870 3,800 32 38,832 200.0 1 0 (10) 133 40 1 (2) (21) 59 (8) Mar-12 (12) 34 (7) 70.5 80.0 59.7 64.2 109 95 0.4 4.1 3.3 6.5 28.6 147 Tokyo Tatemono 8804 JP O JPY 902.0 1,400 55 3,787 98.8 0 5 (7) 261 105 (0) 3 (19) 187 57 Dec-12 (22) 43 42 37.9 48.6 34.1 24.0 99 119 0.4 3.8 1.8 3.7 26.2 193
Tokyu Land 8815 JP O JPY 1,134 1,700 50 5,871 85.1 1 5 (12) 228 81 1 3 (24) 154 33 Mar-12 (38) (3) 4 17.6 28.3 29.1 27.9 96 96 0.6 8.5 2.3 2.5 20.1 308 Sumitomo Realty & Development 8830 JP O JPY 4,620 6,800 47 21,359 144.3 2 4 (5) 176 62 2 2 (17) 102 14 Mar-12 18 5 4 41.1 34.8 33.2 32.0 105 99 0.4 10.8 3.6 6.4 23.9 374 Sector* 36 109,976 1 1 (6) 149 52 1 (1) (18) 75 4 Mar-12 33 12 3 54.4 40.9 36.3 35.3 103 100 0.7 7.2 2.9 3.5 22.2 196
REITS Masahiro Mochizuki - 81 3 4550 7389
Nippon Accommodations Fund 3226 JP N JPY 687,000 760,000 11 1,545 6.1 0 8 (9) 36 15 (0) 6 (20) (38) (34) Aug-12 (8) 5 na 23.5 25.4 24.3 na 94 100 4.3 5.3 1.2 24.6 95
Advance Residence 3269 JP N JPY 219,600 240,000 9 2,655 13.0 0 4 (7) 53 24 0 2 (19) (21) (24) Jul-12 2 8 na 28.1 27.4 25.5 na 94 99 3.9 5.4 1.4 26.7 102 Nippon Building Fund 8951 JP O JPY 1,252,000 1,400,000 12 8,448 39.7 (2) 4 (11) 81 40 (3) 2 (22) 7 (8) Dec-12 11 (12) na 40.1 36.2 41.0 na 100 92 2.6 5.0 1.7 30.0 86 Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation
8952 JP O JPY 1,162,000 1,360,000 17 6,732 29.0 (4) 2 (10) 73 37 (4) 0 (22) (1) (12) Sep-12 (6) (0) na 36.7 39.1 39.2 na 98 95 2.6 4.5 1.7 30.4 71
Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation
8955 JP O JPY 325,500 430,000 32 2,618 10.2 (2) 10 (11) 46 31 (2) 8 (23) (28) (18) Dec-12 2 (3) na 27.9 27.5 28.3 na 98 93 3.6 5.0 1.4 24.4 68
Tokyu REIT 8957 JP N JPY 587,000 670,000 14 969 5.0 (1) 10 (9) 58 25 (1) 8 (20) (16) (24) Jul-12 (6) 7 na 23.7 25.2 23.5 na 101 101 4.0 4.0 1.0 25.0 88 Nomura Real Estate Office Fund 8959 JP N JPY 575,000 500,000 (13) 1,711 8.2 1 10 (14) 31 16 0 8 (25) (43) (33) Oct-12 (8) (4) na 22.4 24.4 25.6 na 95 92 4.1 3.8 0.9 25.6 90 United Urban Investment Corporation
8960 JP U JPY 148,800 150,000 1 3,345 16.1 (3) 3 (8) 66 50 (3) 1 (19) (8) 2 Nov-12 7 11 na 33.0 30.8 27.7 na 101 100 3.7 5.2 1.5 24.7 82
Frontier Real Estate Investment Corporation
8964 JP U JPY 970,000 910,000 (6) 2,346 8.2 (1) 9 (5) 53 28 (1) 8 (16) (21) (20) Dec-12 8 2 na 27.1 25.1 24.7 na 102 103 4.0 6.7 1.6 20.2 41
Sector* 11 30,369 (2) 5 (10) 64 34 (2) 3 (21) (10) (14) Mar-12 (21) 2 na 25.1 31.9 31.2 na na 98 3.3 4.8 1.5 27.7 82
Retailing Taketo Yamate - 81 3 4550 9963
JIN 3046 JP O JPY 5,440 6,400 18 1,272 12.6 (1) (2) 9 318 75 (1) (4) (2) 244 27 Aug-12 261 46 38 103.2 28.6 19.5 14.1 120 128 0.7 41.1 9.8 3.2 13.7 (37) J. Front Retailing 3086 JP U JPY 765.0 700.0 (8) 3,941 19.0 4 (3) (8) 107 60 3 (5) (20) 33 12 Feb-13 134 (35) na 33.2 14.2 22.0 na 101 89 1.3 8.1 1.1 0.5 9.4 39 Start Today 3092 JP O JPY 1,715 2,000 17 1,837 22.2 1 1 15 33 114 1 (1) 4 (41) 65 Mar-13 35 44 19 34.6 25.6 17.8 15.0 109 128 1.9 49.1 11.0 4.4 13.7 (95)
Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings 3099 JP U JPY 1,498 740.0 (51) 5,763 24.4 2 (1) (5) 90 78 1 (3) (16) 16 29 Mar-13 (19) (18) 3 23.4 28.7 34.8 33.9 101 79 0.7 4.1 1.2 0.6 9.6 24 Seven & i Holdings 3382 JP O JPY 3,845 4,300 12 33,123 99.0 0 (5) (1) 63 58 (0) (7) (12) (11) 9 Feb-13 30 12 na 24.6 19.0 16.9 na 103 107 1.8 9.2 1.7 0.7 7.2 18 Takashimaya 8233 JP N JPY 1,077 1,100 2 3,464 20.7 2 (1) (7) 94 76 1 (3) (18) 20 27 Feb-13 6 (6) na 21.5 20.2 21.6 na 99 91 0.9 5.2 1.0 0.4 8.1 8
AEON 8267 JP O JPY 1,290 1,300 1 9,677 46.3 (1) (4) (5) 34 31 (1) (6) (16) (40) (18) Feb-13 (8) 7 na 13.5 14.6 13.6 na 95 96 2.0 6.9 1.0 0.4 5.7 81 Yamada Denki 9831 JP O JPY 4,365 5,800 33 4,010 47.9 (2) (1) (12) 5 31 (3) (3) (23) (69) (17) Mar-13 26 31 13 18.5 14.7 11.2 9.9 98 108 1.8 5.1 0.7 0.3 8.6 34 Nitori Holdings 9843 JP U JPY 8,390 6,700 (20) 4,512 23.3 (1) (2) 20 21 33 (1) (4) 8 (53) (16) Feb-13 (4) (5) na 12.8 13.4 14.1 na 94 86 1.2 15.3 1.9 1.2 6.6 (5)
Fast Retailing 9983 JP U JPY 41,400 13,600 (67) 41,111 221.7 7 7 21 141 90 7 5 9 67 41 Aug-12 21 (12) 11 58.8 48.5 55.1 49.6 95 76 0.7 20.8 9.4 3.6 24.2 (66) Sector* (24) 108,710 3 0 7 92 68 2 (2) (4) 18 20 Mar-12 (7) 13 5 24.8 26.7 23.6 23.9 100 97 1.2 8.2 2.1 0.7 10.1 27
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Japan—valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute performance Relative performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Divd ROE P/B EV/ EV/ Net debt/ daily con. EPS yld sales EBITDA equity
Stock ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Technology Shunsuke Tsuchiya / Yohei Ohya / Akinori Kanemoto / Shinji Kuroda / Hideyuki Maekawa / Yu Yoshida / Yuki Nakayasu - 81 3 4550 9740 / 81 3 4550 7366 / 81 3 4550 7363 / 81 3 4550 9994 / 81 3 4550 9723 / 81 3 4550 9815 / 81 3 4550 9966
mixi 2121 JP U JPY 1,729 1,500 (13) 252 3.5 (2) (4) 3 6 (11) (2) (6) (9) (68) (59) Mar-12 108 10 3 34.4 16.5 15.0 14.6 94 100 1.2 10.2 1.6 1.1 4.1 (71) Kakaku.com 2371 JP N JPY 2,595 2,100 (19) 2,835 17.1 (2) (3) 6 130 82 (2) (5) (5) 56 33 Mar-12 33 26 14 57.2 43.1 34.3 30.1 97 98 0.6 33.2 12.7 11.3 21.8 (98) DeNA 2432 JP N JPY 2,208 2,800 27 2,885 166.0 0 (0) (20) 13 (22) (0) (2) (31) (61) (71) Mar-12 31 2 3 9.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 95 95 2.1 39.7 2.4 1.0 2.5 (65)
Gree 3632 JP N JPY 991.0 1,200 21 2,234 84.8 (1) (1) (19) (28) (26) (1) (2) (31) (102) (74) Jun-12 (36) (4) 2 4.8 7.5 7.8 7.6 96 94 1.3 31.5 2.1 1.0 2.7 (74) NEXON 3569 JT O JPY 1,201 1,300 8 5,115 13.7 (1) (2) 5 (11) 38 (1) (4) (6) (85) (10) Dec-12 43 12 13 20.4 14.3 12.7 11.3 94 102 0.7 15.9 2.1 2.5 5.5 (52) IBIDEN 4062 JP N JPY 1,953 1,700 (13) 2,630 30.6 1 8 23 31 43 0 6 12 (43) (5) Mar-12 (63) 392 16 26.2 70.4 14.3 12.4 174 151 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 4.5 (16)
Nomura Research Institute 4307 JP O JPY 2,967 3,000 1 5,717 14.5 0 (1) 6 75 66 0 (2) (5) 1 17 Mar-12 (14) 7 4 17.7 20.6 19.2 18.5 99 98 3.4 19.7 17.4 1.5 7.0 (13) Yahoo Japan 4689 JP O JPY 50,400 46,000 (9) 28,257 45.9 (1) (4) 8 118 81 (1) (6) (3) 44 32 Mar-12 11 12 6 29.1 26.2 23.4 21.9 97 98 0.8 21.9 5.3 7.6 13.1 (58) Itochu Techno-Solutions (CTC)
4739 JP O JPY 4,370 5,200 19 2,535 10.0 (1) 1 (3) 15 23 (1) (1) (15) (59) (25) Mar-12 27 13 6 20.1 15.8 14.0 13.2 103 105 0.0 10.2 1.6 0.6 5.2 (46)
CyberAgent, Inc 4751 JP N JPY 216,500 170,000 (21) 1,315 41.8 3 (3) 7 12 22 2 (5) (4) (62) (26) Sep-12 (25) 35 7 16.4 21.8 16.2 15.1 50 83 1.2 14.5 3.0 0.6 6.5 (54) Rakuten 4755 JP O JPY 1,332 1,200 (10) 17,082 45.1 3 1 21 58 98 3 (1) 10 (16) 49 Dec-12 182 15 14 90.1 32.0 27.8 24.4 95 94 0.3 19.4 5.7 3.2 13.4 (5)
Fujifilm Holdings 4901 JP N JPY 2,477 1,800 (27) 11,638 79.2 0 (1) 21 59 44 (0) (3) 9 (15) (5) Mar-12 14 41 14 27.3 24.0 17.0 14.9 92 101 1.6 2.9 0.7 0.5 4.8 (10) KONICA MINOLTA, INC. 4902 JP N JPY 808.0 650.0 (20) 4,178 34.1 1 8 13 34 31 1 6 1 (40) (17) Mar-12 (7) 52 8 21.0 22.6 14.9 13.8 126 99 1.9 4.3 1.0 0.5 4.2 (5) NGK Spark Plug 5334 JP U JPY 2,046 1,370 (33) 4,342 15.4 (1) 5 28 95 79 (1) 4 16 21 31 Mar-12 (22) 23 12 17.4 22.5 18.3 16.3 95 99 1.1 8.1 1.8 1.3 10.8 (21)
DISCO 6146 JP O JPY 7,070 6,100 (14) 2,323 9.8 1 3 20 52 58 1 1 9 (22) 10 Mar-13 38 13 na 31.9 23.1 20.5 na 101 96 1.0 9.3 2.1 2.4 10.7 (13) Brother Industries 6448 JP O JPY 1,348 1,100 (18) 3,518 14.0 3 4 23 47 47 2 2 11 (27) (2) Mar-12 (5) 37 6 18.5 19.5 14.3 13.5 104 112 1.8 7.7 1.4 0.7 6.4 (9) Hitachi 6501 JP N JPY 768.0 510.0 (34) 36,173 178.4 0 4 25 62 52 (0) 2 14 (12) 4 Mar-13 55 3 na 20.6 13.3 12.9 na 110 98 1.3 12.7 1.6 0.6 5.9 42
Toshiba 6502 JP O JPY 542.0 560.0 3 22,380 210.3 0 4 1 74 61 (0) 2 (10) (0) 12 Mar-13 154 8 na 29.6 11.7 10.8 na 124 115 2.2 18.1 2.0 0.5 5.4 79 Mitsubishi Electric 6503 JP N JPY 1,149 810.0 (30) 24,052 71.8 (3) (3) 28 84 57 (3) (4) 16 10 9 Mar-13 98 10 na 35.5 18.0 16.3 na 108 102 1.0 10.9 1.9 0.7 6.9 2 Yaskawa Electric Corp 6506 JP O JPY 1,439 1,800 25 3,531 28.2 2 3 30 131 75 1 1 19 57 26 Mar-13 150 12 22 53.3 21.3 19.1 15.6 119 112 0.8 14.2 3.0 1.1 10.2 27
Toshiba Tec 6588 JP O JPY 571.0 700.0 23 1,527 5.9 0 (4) (11) 100 31 (0) (6) (22) 26 (18) Mar-13 61 50 3 25.2 15.7 10.4 10.2 114 100 1.4 6.5 1.0 0.2 2.3 (37) Nidec 6594 JP O JPY 7,300 6,200 (15) 9,603 55.4 2 5 23 10 45 2 3 11 (64) (3) Mar-12 (84) 757 22 26.2 163.9 19.1 15.7 75 106 1.3 1.8 3.1 1.5 19.9 21 Dai-ichi Seiko 6640 JP N JPY 1,651 1,300 (21) 269 1.9 2 5 19 6 21 1 3 7 (68) (28) Dec-12 nm 26 8 nm 13.9 11.0 10.2 126 120 0.6 5.1 0.7 0.5 2.7 (13)
NEC 6701 JP N JPY 280.0 245.0 (13) 7,094 82.1 (1) 8 6 130 55 (2) 6 (5) 56 6 Mar-13 70 6 na 23.9 14.0 13.3 na 117 105 1.4 7.1 1.0 0.4 6.2 57 Fujitsu 6702 JP N JPY 467.0 390.0 (16) 9,422 59.8 (2) 9 11 31 30 (3) 7 (0) (43) (19) Mar-13 nm 8 na nm 12.6 11.6 na 129 106 2.1 9.7 1.2 0.2 4.0 12 Seiko Epson 6724 JP O JPY 1,483 1,200 (19) 2,587 29.9 3 9 42 72 113 2 7 31 (2) 64 Mar-12 (332) nm (0) 56.6 nm 12.4 12.5 93 126 1.3 (4.5) 1.1 0.5 7.1 78
Wacom 6727 JP O JPY 562,000 425,000 (24) 2,302 22.3 1 1 33 231 149 0 (1) 21 157 100 Mar-12 139 48 7 103.0 43.1 29.1 27.1 109 110 0.8 22.9 8.4 3.5 23.0 (62) Hitachi Kokusai Electric 6756 JP N JPY 1,098 890.0 (19) 1,100 5.7 (1) (2) 2 66 74 (2) (4) (9) (8) 25 Mar-13 (1) 21 na 18.3 18.5 15.3 na 90 91 1.1 7.1 1.3 0.4 4.1 (56) TDK 6762 JP O JPY 4,490 4,200 (6) 5,507 76.6 3 13 33 22 44 2 11 22 (52) (4) Mar-12 nm 515 35 nm 109.7 17.8 13.3 431 130 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 6.2 6
Mitsumi Electric 6767 JP N JPY 831.0 560.0 (33) 709 8.1 13 20 54 42 67 13 18 43 (32) 18 Mar-12 nm nm 493 nm nm 148.6 25.1 107 189 0.0 (10.4) 0.7 0.2 6.5 (47) Alps Electric 6770 JP N JPY 817.0 730.0 (11) 1,428 23.9 4 12 10 28 58 3 10 (2) (46) 10 Mar-12 (285) nm 49 35.1 nm 11.8 7.9 91 120 0.6 (7.0) 1.4 0.4 6.5 26 Hirose Electric 6806 JP U JPY 14,010 10,800 (23) 4,717 11.6 1 (1) 4 89 36 1 (2) (7) 15 (12) Mar-12 7 39 6 37.8 35.4 25.5 23.9 101 110 1.0 5.7 2.3 3.6 12.5 (57)
Japan Aviation Electronics Industry
6807 JP N JPY 1,025 730.0 (29) 905 6.2 1 7 35 52 61 0 5 24 (22) 13 Mar-12 44 41 9 28.7 19.9 14.1 12.9 92 106 1.0 7.4 1.5 0.7 4.3 2
Advantest 6857 JP U JPY 1,824 1,100 (40) 3,091 43.4 (1) 7 32 50 35 (1) 6 20 (24) (13) Mar-13 nm 900 na nm 652.0 65.2 na 6 36 0.5 0.4 2.5 2.3 28.6 (30)
Shinko Electric Industries 6967 JP N JPY 1,223 900.0 (26) 1,611 9.5 (1) 7 38 88 79 (1) 6 27 14 31 Mar-12 nm 247 2 nm 63.6 18.3 18.0 90 117 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.9 7.1 (36) Kyocera 6971 JP N JPY 11,590 9,000 (22) 20,730 78.6 5 9 24 67 49 4 7 13 (7) 1 Mar-12 (23) 64 15 26.8 34.9 21.3 18.6 92 102 1.0 4.1 1.5 1.3 12.2 (32) Taiyo Yuden 6976 JP N JPY 1,814 1,400 (23) 2,080 29.9 (0) (3) 27 129 141 (1) (5) 16 55 92 Mar-12 nm 169 3 nm 55.9 20.7 20.1 191 88 0.6 3.5 1.9 1.2 9.8 20
Murata Manufacturing 6981 JP O JPY 8,670 9,000 4 17,843 56.9 2 (0) 10 99 72 2 (2) (1) 25 23 Mar-12 32 121 33 59.4 45.0 20.3 15.2 96 121 1.2 5.0 2.4 2.6 13.2 (11) Nikon 7731 JP U JPY 2,866 2,000 (30) 11,082 91.3 (0) 5 30 30 13 (1) 3 19 (44) (35) Mar-12 (35) 43 13 19.2 29.4 20.6 18.2 91 88 1.1 8.6 2.4 1.1 12.5 (7) Olympus Corporation 7733 JP N JPY 3,455 2,500 (28) 10,148 47.7 8 27 41 200 108 8 25 29 126 59 Mar-12 nm 172 50 nm 115.3 42.3 28.1 104 83 0.0 9.2 7.6 1.9 17.1 254
Dainippon Screen Mfg. 7735 JP N JPY 635.0 510.0 (20) 1,470 27.0 3 12 34 1 21 2 10 22 (73) (27) Mar-13 nm 197 na nm 100.5 33.9 na 36 52 0.8 1.8 1.8 0.7 13.3 (30) Tamron 7740 JP N JPY 2,393 2,200 (8) 640 5.5 3 5 16 1 (2) 2 3 5 (73) (50) Dec-12 13 18 15 16.9 14.9 12.6 10.9 103 101 2.1 10.4 1.5 0.8 5.5 (15) Canon 7751 JP O JPY 3,885 4,000 3 43,668 252.0 2 4 3 17 16 2 2 (9) (57) (32) Dec-12 60 8 3 20.3 12.7 11.8 11.4 117 112 3.3 13.1 1.6 0.9 4.6 (26)
Ricoh 7752 JP O JPY 1,330 1,400 5 9,402 85.1 0 7 8 110 47 (0) 5 (3) 36 (2) Mar-12 nm 135 4 nm 26.2 11.2 10.7 113 112 2.2 4.4 1.1 0.8 9.6 60 Nintendo 7974 JP N JPY 11,220 12,500 11 13,990 96.7 (2) (5) (4) 21 22 (2) (7) (15) (53) (26) Mar-12 nm nm (5) nm 844.0 28.1 29.5 24 96 0.9 0.1 1.2 1.2 38.3 (41) Tokyo Electron 8035 JP N JPY 5,770 4,700 (19) 10,081 71.1 (4) 2 23 50 47 (4) 0 12 (24) (2) Mar-13 (120) nm na 170.2 nm 84.0 na nm 31 0.2 (0.2) 1.8 1.7 39.1 (42)
NTT Data 9613 JP U JPY 383,500 280,000 (27) 10,489 28.4 (0) 0 27 64 43 (1) (1) 15 (10) (6) Mar-13 (4) 4 5 24.7 25.7 24.7 23.6 93 90 0.0 6.3 1.6 0.9 5.1 20 Square Enix Holdings 9684 JP O JPY 1,383 1,450 5 1,552 13.5 (3) 6 27 9 26 (4) 4 16 (65) (22) Mar-12 (315) nm 669 26.3 nm 122.4 15.9 106 22 2.2 (10.1) 1.3 0.7 99.2 (50)
Capcom 9697 JP O JPY 1,834 1,800 (2) 1,030 14.0 1 6 12 17 39 0 4 0 (57) (9) Mar-12 (0) 54 0 15.7 15.8 10.3 10.3 225 128 2.2 10.9 1.7 0.9 6.8 (29) Konami 9766 JP O JPY 2,872 2,000 (30) 3,882 31.5 1 12 44 56 49 0 11 33 (18) 0 Mar-12 (24) 21 11 17.3 22.7 18.8 16.9 133 109 1.7 7.9 1.8 1.4 8.3 (27) Sector* (13) 392,949 1 3 16 65 51 0 1 5 (9) 3 Mar-12 (4) 90 11 31.6 32.8 17.3 15.5 102 107 1.4 5.7 1.8 0.8 8.4 7
Telecommunication Services
Hitoshi Hayakawa - 81 3 4550 9952
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone
9432 JP O JPY 5,390 4,700 (13) 69,540 144.7 2 (3) 12 58 48 2 (5) 1 (16) 0 Mar-13 1 0 na 12.5 12.4 12.4 na 93 88 3.2 6.4 0.8 0.9 3.1 27
KDDI 9433 JP O JPY 5,100 5,000 (2) 44,603 114.1 (0) 3 16 110 67 (1) 1 5 36 19 Mar-13 27 9 9 16.1 12.8 11.7 10.8 98 95 2.4 13.0 1.9 1.3 4.6 32
NTT DoCoMo 9437 JP U JPY 164,700 150,000 (9) 66,592 116.9 (0) 1 7 30 33 (1) (1) (4) (44) (16) Mar-13 4 1 4 13.8 13.2 13.1 12.5 101 99 3.6 9.3 1.2 1.4 3.9 (9) Softbank 9984 JP R JPY 5,730 67,081 357.5 (2) (4) 30 146 82 (2) (6) 18 72 34 na na na na na na na na na na na na Sector* (9) 247,816 0 (1) 16 83 57 (0) (3) 5 9 8 Mar-12 12 7 3 15.3 13.7 12.8 12.4 100 97 2.9 8.1 1.1 1.2 3.9 22
Country Average* TPX 1,276 1,219 (4) 2,580,315 0 2 11 74 48 Mar-12 51 70 11 43.2 28.7 16.8 15.1 100 105 1.5 6.1 1.7 1.0 9.0 30
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above , Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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South Korea: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Automobiles & Components
Henry Kwon - 82 2 3707 3732
KIA Motors 000270 KS O KRW 57,100 64,900 14 20,786 88.3 5 4 15 (25) 1 4 3 11 (34) 1 Dec-12 11 12 6 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.5 115 117 0.0 23.2 1.1 0.4 3.9 (18) Hyundai Motor 005380 KS O KRW 198,500 254,500 28 37,305 119.6 0 3 8 (16) (9) (1) 2 5 (25) (9) Dec-12 7 20 3 4.9 4.5 3.8 3.7 129 142 0.9 18.3 0.8 0.8 5.4 49
Hyundai Wia 011210 KS O KRW 156,500 158,000 1 3,616 20.2 (1) 4 15 (5) (10) (1) 2 12 (14) (9) Dec-12 5 3 4 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.5 99 90 0.3 21.5 1.8 0.6 6.8 26 Hyundai Mobis 012330 KS O KRW 282,000 374,000 33 24,652 66.0 3 7 3 4 (2) 2 6 (0) (5) (2) Dec-12 3 13 4 7.7 7.5 6.6 6.3 103 105 0.7 19.7 1.3 0.8 7.6 (4) Mando 060980 KS N KRW 98,000 99,000 1 1,603 14.0 1 (1) 20 (42) (24) 1 (2) 17 (51) (24) Dec-12 27 5 (19) 10.9 8.6 8.2 10.1 94 85 1.0 13.0 1.1 0.6 6.2 77
Sector* 24 87,962 2 4 9 (13) (5) 1 3 6 (22) (5) Dec-12 7 16 4 5.9 5.5 4.7 4.6 118 125 0.6 19.6 1.0 0.7 5.5 25
Banks Gil Kim - 82 2 3707 3763
IBK 024110 KS N KRW 12,550 11,000 (12) 6,201 9.1 0 1 0 5 6 (1) (0) (4) (4) 6 Dec-11 (14) (21) 1 6.3 7.3 9.2 9.2 97 81 3.2 9.6 0.6 na na na WFH 053000 KS N KRW 11,600 11,000 (5) 8,396 19.2 1 0 0 8 (2) 0 (1) (3) (1) (2) Dec-12 (14) 5 8 7.3 8.5 8.1 7.5 86 78 1.7 6.5 0.5 na na na SFG 055550 KS O KRW 39,850 48,500 22 16,970 36.7 1 5 2 4 3 0 4 (1) (5) 3 Dec-12 (1) 5 6 9.2 9.3 8.8 8.3 99 94 1.8 8.8 0.8 na na na
KB Financial 105560 KS O KRW 37,350 42,000 12 12,959 40.5 1 2 4 3 (1) 0 1 1 (6) (1) Dec-12 30 10 4 10.4 8.0 7.2 7.0 102 100 2.1 7.9 0.6 na na na BS Financial Group 138930 KS N KRW 15,550 12,500 (20) 2,700 7.4 3 3 5 32 18 2 2 2 23 18 Dec-12 3 5 11 9.1 8.8 8.4 7.6 93 89 2.3 10.5 0.8 na na na DGB Financial 139130 KS O KRW 16,700 18,000 8 2,010 3.2 1 (1) 3 25 15 0 (2) (1) 16 15 Dec-12 10 10 8 8.6 7.8 7.1 6.5 102 101 2.1 11.5 0.9 na na na
Sector* 8 49,237 1 2 2 7 3 0 1 (1) (2) 3 Dec-12 1 6 6 8.8 8.7 8.2 7.6 94 90 2.0 8.0 0.7 na na na
Capital Goods Henry Kwon / Minseok Sinn - 82 2 3707 3732 / 82 2 3707 8898
Daelim Industrial 000210 KS O KRW 91,300 120,000 31 2,853 23.4 3 3 21 (3) 5 3 2 18 (12) 5 Dec-12 24 8 17 8.8 7.1 6.6 5.6 108 103 0.5 9.7 0.7 0.3 5.5 3 Hyundai E&C 000720 KS O KRW 63,400 72,000 14 6,340 28.0 1 2 7 (6) (9) (0) 1 4 (15) (9) Dec-12 17 19 9 12.5 10.7 9.0 8.3 104 105 0.8 13.1 1.3 0.5 6.9 (7) Samsung C&T 000830 KS O KRW 60,900 73,000 20 8,544 33.7 0 1 5 (12) (3) (0) (0) 1 (21) (3) Dec-12 (34) 50 11 19.8 30.1 20.0 18.1 74 90 0.8 2.6 0.8 0.4 18.8 27
GS E&C 006360 KS U KRW 34,500 38,000 10 1,580 27.1 0 2 13 (55) (40) (0) 1 10 (65) (40) Dec-12 (731) nm 100 15.8 nm 11.8 5.9 71 83 0.7 (18.8) 0.5 0.3 nm 39 Hyundai Heavy 009540 KS N KRW 207,000 216,000 4 14,128 43.4 0 1 5 (21) (14) (0) (0) 1 (30) (14) Dec-12 (2) 21 13 13.3 13.6 11.3 10.0 104 99 3.6 6.7 0.9 0.4 8.9 48 Samsung Heavy 010140 KS O KRW 32,850 44,000 34 6,811 30.8 (0) (3) 0 (9) (15) (1) (4) (3) (18) (15) Dec-12 1 2 1 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 88 88 1.5 14.6 1.3 0.6 5.9 27
Hyundai Mipo 010620 KS U KRW 138,500 88,000 (36) 2,488 10.7 1 0 28 27 9 0 (1) 24 18 9 Dec-12 (14) 10 23 28.7 33.5 30.6 24.9 116 80 3.0 2.6 0.9 1.1 35.4 53 Hyundai Dev 012630 KS N KRW 26,750 26,000 (3) 1,811 7.8 1 1 17 25 24 0 (1) 14 16 24 Dec-12 nm 79 36 353.2 20.3 11.3 8.3 94 110 1.9 3.9 0.8 1.0 15.5 71 Samsung Engineering 028050 KS N KRW 99,000 90,000 (9) 3,556 30.0 4 1 11 (49) (40) 4 (0) 7 (58) (40) Dec-12 (45) 94 9 7.0 12.7 6.6 6.0 110 126 3.0 15.7 2.1 0.3 8.6 (22)
DHI 034020 KS N KRW 45,950 49,000 7 4,368 15.1 1 2 22 (11) 2 0 1 18 (20) 2 Dec-11 (54) 231 8 17.7 38.8 11.7 10.9 278 104 0.0 2.7 1.0 0.8 9.3 66 DSME 042660 KS N KRW 25,600 23,000 (10) 4,400 25.8 (1) (10) 1 (5) (6) (1) (12) (2) (14) (6) Dec-12 52 4 1 22.1 14.6 14.1 13.9 100 62 1.6 6.9 1.0 0.7 17.5 106 Daewoo E&C 047040 KS U KRW 7,930 7,000 (12) 2,960 4.4 0 0 3 (4) (20) (0) (1) (1) (13) (20) Dec-12 69 (5) 19 19.0 11.2 11.9 10.0 111 87 0.0 8.2 0.9 0.6 11.6 55
Sector* 8 59,839 1 (0) 8 (12) (10) 0 (1) 5 (21) (10) Dec-12 (10) 43 13 14.2 15.7 11.0 9.7 94 94 1.7 6.2 0.9 0.5 11.1 39
Chemicals A-Hyung Cho - 82 2 3707 3735
Cheil Industries 001300 KS O KRW 94,000 120,000 28 4,427 22.5 (0) (1) (0) (4) (0) (1) (2) (4) (13) (0) Dec-11 (19) 49 26 18.1 22.5 15.1 12.0 102 107 0.8 6.4 1.4 1.0 11.5 35 Hanwha Chem 009830 KS U KRW 18,500 15,000 (19) 2,331 11.6 2 6 10 (11) 1 2 5 7 (20) 1 Dec-11 (168) nm 40 15.6 nm 26.2 18.7 nm 73 1.4 (2.4) 0.6 1.0 20.4 96 OCI Company 010060 KS N KRW 148,500 145,000 (2) 3,181 30.1 (1) 5 5 (24) (10) (2) 4 1 (33) (10) Dec-11 (99) nm 90 4.1 278.4 22.0 11.5 nm 257 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.6 7.7 49
Lotte Chemical 011170 KS O KRW 176,500 235,000 33 5,433 41.3 0 (2) 5 (28) (28) (0) (3) 2 (37) (28) Dec-11 (72) 53 35 5.0 17.8 11.6 8.6 101 107 1.0 5.1 0.9 0.4 8.5 16 LG Chem 051910 KS O KRW 275,500 365,000 32 16,396 64.6 (1) 1 8 (3) (17) (1) (0) 5 (12) (16) Dec-11 (31) 22 25 8.4 12.2 10.0 8.0 111 122 1.5 15.0 1.7 0.9 7.2 15 Sector* 25 31,767 (0) 1 6 (10) (14) (1) (0) 3 (19) (14) Dec-12 50 31 na 18.1 12.1 9.2 na 118 119 1.1 9.9 1.1 0.8 6.8 26
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Sonia Kim - 82 2 3707 3764
Woongjin Coway 021240 KS O KRW 56,100 55,000 (2) 3,886 7.0 1 2 11 66 29 0 1 8 57 29 Dec-11 (32) 91 14 24.1 35.4 18.5 16.2 99 99 0.0 14.9 5.0 2.7 11.9 55
Consumer Staples Sonia Kim - 82 2 3707 3764
Jinro 000080 KS U KRW 31,150 25,000 (20) 1,944 5.0 0 8 (5) 48 2 (0) 6 (8) 39 3 Dec-12 23 11 10 20.3 16.5 14.9 13.5 103 87 4.8 8.9 1.5 1.6 9.6 90 Nongshim 004370 KS U KRW 312,000 210,000 (33) 1,704 5.8 0 4 (10) 42 15 (1) 3 (14) 33 15 Dec-12 (7) 11 11 17.5 18.8 17.0 15.3 86 84 1.3 6.3 1.2 0.7 10.9 (32)
KT&G 033780 KS U KRW 78,600 75,000 (5) 9,691 23.2 1 4 (2) 3 (3) (0) 3 (5) (6) (3) Dec-12 5 6 13 14.2 13.5 12.8 11.3 96 95 4.8 14.5 2.2 2.6 8.7 (3) LG H&H 051900 KS O KRW 635,000 850,000 34 8,906 15.9 0 2 6 10 (3) (0) 0 2 1 (3) Dec-12 30 23 14 30.6 23.6 19.2 16.9 118 123 0.6 29.7 7.3 2.4 14.9 49 Amorepacific 090430 KS N KRW 950,000 1,000,000 5 4,987 12.8 (0) (2) 7 (9) (22) (1) (3) 3 (18) (22) Dec-12 1 21 12 21.2 21.0 17.4 15.6 101 105 0.8 10.7 2.2 1.7 11.0 (13)
CJ Cheiljedang 097950 KS U KRW 282,000 280,000 (1) 3,315 16.0 (2) (4) (7) (17) (21) (3) (5) (10) (26) (21) Dec-12 (1) 18 9 14.1 14.3 12.1 11.1 83 77 0.9 4.7 0.7 0.8 9.7 86 Sector* 6 30,548 0 2 1 6 (7) (1) 0 (3) (3) (6) Dec-12 8 14 12 18.7 17.3 15.2 13.5 98 97 2.3 10.9 1.9 1.5 10.6 33
Diversified Financials Gil Kim - 82 2 3707 3763
HFG 086790 KS O KRW 37,800 54,000 43 9,841 32.1 1 4 3 3 9 1 3 (1) (6) 9 Dec-12 8 16 5 7.2 6.7 5.8 5.5 113 116 2.1 9.7 0.6 na na na
Energy A-Hyung Cho - 82 2 3707 3735
S-Oil 010950 KS O KRW 88,900 116,000 30 8,988 21.8 (0) 1 2 (4) (15) (1) 0 (1) (13) (14) Dec-11 (51) 98 3 8.4 17.1 8.6 8.4 103 119 3.0 11.0 1.9 0.4 10.5 44
GS Holdings 078930 KS O KRW 57,700 76,000 32 4,815 21.7 (1) (1) 10 5 (20) (2) (2) 6 (4) (20) Dec-11 (29) 38 3 6.6 9.4 6.8 6.6 117 114 2.4 9.1 0.8 0.8 9.6 35 SK Innovation 096770 KS O KRW 153,500 206,000 34 12,746 45.5 (0) 1 7 8 (12) (1) (0) 4 (1) (12) Dec-12 61 10 (1) 11.9 7.4 6.7 6.8 126 115 2.1 11.7 0.8 0.3 6.1 25 Sector* 32 26,549 (0) 1 6 3 (14) (1) (0) 3 (6) (14) Dec-12 65 6 (1) 12.6 7.6 7.2 6.8 122 112 3.3 13.4 1.0 0.3 6.5 29
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Sonia Kim - 82 2 3707 3764
Kangwon Land 035250 KS N KRW 32,600 32,000 (2) 6,263 12.2 (3) 3 6 34 11 (3) 1 2 25 12 Dec-11 (19) 24 26 17.5 21.5 17.3 13.7 101 101 2.5 13.8 3.2 4.6 12.4 (45)
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South Korea: Valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Insurance Gil Kim - 82 2 3707 3763
SFM 000810 KS N KRW 230,500 230,000 (0) 9,806 17.9 2 2 5 6 6 2 1 2 (3) 6 Mar-12 (15) 46 7 13.2 15.6 10.7 10.0 118 120 1.2 6.8 1.0 na na na HMF 001450 KS N KRW 31,550 32,000 1 2,533 8.4 (1) (0) 3 5 (5) (2) (1) (1) (4) (5) Mar-12 (25) 39 9 7.6 10.2 7.3 6.7 81 89 2.1 11.4 1.1 na na na DBI 005830 KS N KRW 45,550 44,000 (3) 2,896 7.7 (0) 1 4 (7) (1) (1) (0) 0 (16) (1) Mar-12 (22) 41 6 7.8 10.0 7.1 6.7 88 98 2.1 11.2 1.1 na na na
Sector* (1) 15,236 1 1 5 4 3 1 0 1 (6) 3 Dec-12 25 14 11 12.3 9.9 8.6 6.1 105 100 1.8 10.5 1.0 na na na
Media Jeff Kahng - 82 2 3707 3738
Cheil Worldwide 030000 KS U KRW 25,100 20,400 (19) 2,593 9.0 (2) 1 (8) 33 16 (3) 0 (12) 24 17 Dec-11 2 15 18 30.2 29.6 25.8 21.8 98 89 0.0 12.8 3.6 0.9 15.8 (81) Skylife 053210 KS N KRW 37,250 32,500 (13) 1,600 6.5 (2) (6) (6) 90 11 (3) (7) (9) 81 12 Dec-11 76 40 57 55.6 31.6 22.7 14.5 100 79 0.0 17.6 5.1 3.2 14.6 1 Sector* (16) 4,193 (2) (1) (7) 54 15 (3) (3) (11) 45 15 Dec-12 24 34 18 30.4 24.5 18.3 15.5 85 87 0.2 15.4 3.5 1.2 12.8 (49)
Metals & Mining Minseok Sinn - 82 2 3707 8898
Hyundai Steel 004020 KS U KRW 75,600 66,000 (13) 5,792 22.3 0 (0) 5 (12) (14) (1) (1) 2 (21) (14) Dec-12 (66) 114 16 8.0 23.4 10.9 9.4 46 76 0.7 2.7 0.6 1.2 10.8 96
POSCO 005490 KS N KRW 321,000 350,000 9 25,133 53.8 0 1 0 (10) (8) (1) (0) (3) (19) (8) Dec-12 (12) 18 14 10.4 11.8 10.0 8.8 95 94 2.4 4.9 0.6 0.8 8.6 47 Hyundai Hysco 010520 KS N KRW 34,300 33,000 (4) 2,470 9.6 3 6 30 (4) (25) 2 4 26 (13) (24) Dec-12 (12) 12 9 10.4 11.8 10.5 9.6 83 80 0.7 11.8 1.3 0.5 7.7 67 Sector* 4 33,396 0 1 3 (10) (10) (0) (0) (0) (19) (10) Dec-12 (23) 27 14 9.9 12.9 10.2 8.9 85 89 2.0 4.7 0.6 0.8 8.9 57
Retailing Jeff Kahng / Sonia Kim - 82 2 3707 3738 / 82 2 3707 3764
Shinsegae 004170 KS N KRW 225,000 240,000 7 1,989 5.0 0 (1) 0 (2) 3 (1) (2) (3) (11) 3 Dec-11 (20) 21 10 11.0 13.8 11.4 10.4 99 110 0.7 8.1 1.1 0.7 9.5 40
Lotte Shopping 023530 KS N KRW 360,000 380,000 6 10,181 17.3 (3) (4) (11) 13 (5) (4) (5) (15) 4 (4) Dec-11 15 (15) 19 11.1 9.7 11.4 9.6 100 89 0.6 7.1 0.7 0.5 6.3 9 GS Home Shopping 028150 KS N KRW 221,800 255,000 15 1,307 4.1 (2) (1) 1 122 45 (3) (2) (4) 98 30 Dec-12 13 13 12 12.6 11.1 9.8 8.7 99 100 1.6 16.9 1.8 0.2 4.5 (92) Daum 035720 KS N KRW 87,600 107,000 22 1,067 6.9 (1) 2 (1) (19) (4) (1) 0 (6) (43) (20) Dec-11 (26) 34 26 11.4 15.4 11.5 9.1 95 110 1.7 15.7 2.3 2.1 7.0 (42)
CJ O Shopping 035760 KS O KRW 316,500 400,000 26 1,763 6.7 (2) (5) 2 78 14 (2) (6) (3) 53 (1) Dec-12 19 21 13 15.3 12.8 10.6 9.4 123 129 0.4 27.6 3.2 0.7 12.8 19 Hyundai Home 057050 KS O KRW 161,000 175,000 9 1,735 3.5 0 11 18 31 33 (1) 10 15 22 33 Dec-12 (2) 15 13 11.7 11.9 10.4 9.2 89 100 0.7 15.5 1.7 0.5 8.0 (64) Hyundai Dept. Store 069960 KS O KRW 166,500 210,000 26 3,499 10.7 (1) 3 2 13 5 (2) 2 (2) 4 5 Dec-12 9 18 21 12.1 11.1 9.4 7.7 98 106 0.5 10.2 1.1 1.0 8.3 18
E-Mart 139480 KS U KRW 197,500 200,000 1 4,944 11.6 1 (2) (1) (20) (17) 0 (3) (5) (29) (17) Dec-11 54 (6) 22 17.9 11.6 12.4 10.1 112 90 1.0 8.1 0.9 0.5 6.9 28 Sector* 10 26,485 (1) (1) (3) 15 1 (2) (2) (6) 6 1 Dec-12 (3) 18 14 11.3 11.6 9.8 8.7 95 100 0.7 7.9 0.9 0.5 7.0 11
Technology John Sung / Jeff Kahng / Keon Han - 82 2 3707 3739 / 82 2 3707 3738 / 82 2 3707 3740
SK Hynix 000660 KS O KRW 31,300 41,000 31 19,512 101.2 2 5 8 33 22 2 4 4 24 22 Dec-11 nm nm 44 nm nm 12.8 8.8 102 87 0.0 (1.8) 2.2 2.7 10.0 60 SEC 005930 KS O KRW 1,509,000 1,900,000 26 199,611 336.8 1 1 0 22 (1) 0 (1) (3) 13 (1) Dec-11 74 42 9 16.2 9.3 6.6 6.0 105 107 0.6 20.9 1.8 1.1 4.8 (3)
SDI 006400 KS N KRW 128,500 142,000 11 5,257 21.1 0 2 4 (18) (15) (1) 1 0 (27) (15) Dec-11 360 (71) 5 18.3 4.0 13.9 13.2 95 80 1.2 25.4 0.9 1.0 2.4 2 SEMCO 009150 KS O KRW 94,400 114,000 21 6,332 44.1 0 (1) 2 (6) (5) (1) (3) (1) (15) (5) Dec-11 98 22 27 31.7 16.0 13.1 10.3 104 104 0.8 22.4 3.5 1.0 7.4 21 LGI 011070 KS U KRW 99,800 58,000 (42) 1,808 10.3 2 3 9 33 21 1 2 5 24 21 Dec-11 nm nm nm nm nm nm 142.5 100 nm 0.5 (1.9) 1.6 0.9 7.3 148
LGD 034220 KS O KRW 29,500 45,000 53 9,479 62.0 (2) (2) (3) 39 (5) (2) (3) (7) 30 (5) Dec-11 nm 321 2 nm 46.8 11.1 10.9 97 95 1.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 2.5 20 NHN 035420 KS N KRW 317,000 267,000 (16) 13,752 54.1 (1) 8 10 38 40 (1) 7 6 29 40 Dec-11 21 23 22 33.7 28.0 22.6 18.6 91 102 0.3 30.5 7.6 6.1 18.1 (32) NC Soft 036570 KS N KRW 173,500 132,000 (24) 3,414 39.4 (3) (2) 4 (20) 15 (3) (3) 0 (29) 15 Dec-11 28 17 91 29.6 23.1 19.8 10.3 96 97 0.4 16.9 3.9 4.4 17.5 (49)
SSC 046890 KS U KRW 33,700 13,000 (61) 1,765 18.5 (2) 0 9 50 39 (2) (2) 4 25 24 Dec-11 (47) 106 27 75.3 141.4 68.8 54.3 154 55 0.1 2.2 3.1 2.4 22.8 7 SK Comms 066270 KS U KRW 7,790 5,100 (35) 304 2.3 (1) (1) (3) 2 (1) (1) (3) (8) (22) (16) Dec-11 (701) nm nm 79.4 nm nm 84.9 142 100 0.0 (12.0) 1.7 1.3 nm (34) LGE 066570 KS N KRW 83,400 82,000 (2) 12,257 81.5 0 (2) (7) 23 13 (1) (4) (11) 14 13 Dec-11 nm 710 32 nm 146.2 18.1 13.7 156 71 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 6.3 50
Neowiz Games 095660 KS N KRW 18,250 22,500 23 359 11.0 (1) 1 11 (35) (27) (1) (0) 6 (60) (43) Dec-11 9 (12) (25) 5.2 4.8 5.5 7.3 1,056 116 0.0 23.9 1.0 0.7 3.2 19 WeMade Ent 112040 KS O KRW 64,300 64,000 (0) 970 8.4 2 9 24 19 40 2 7 19 (6) 24 Dec-11 (91) 926 68 23.2 258.9 25.2 15.0 nm 129 0.0 1.2 4.0 7.7 115.5 (36) Sector* 22 274,820 1 1 1 22 4 0 (0) (2) 13 4 Dec-12 47 12 6 11.5 7.8 7.0 6.1 104 102 0.6 20.6 1.5 0.8 3.7 (5)
Telecommunication Services
Jeff Kahng - 82 2 3707 3738
SKT 017670 KS N KRW 215,000 155,000 (28) 15,590 35.9 0 (1) 14 67 41 (1) (3) 11 58 41 Dec-11 (48) 51 34 11.0 21.1 13.9 10.4 63 72 4.4 6.5 1.4 1.5 5.9 56 KT 030200 KS O KRW 39,900 45,000 13 9,356 35.8 (0) (2) 9 38 12 (1) (3) 6 29 13 Dec-11 (34) 22 27 7.2 11.0 9.0 7.1 84 100 5.0 8.0 0.9 0.9 4.6 86 LG Uplus 032640 KS O KRW 11,700 9,000 (23) 4,587 21.0 (2) (7) 25 117 50 (3) (8) 22 108 50 Dec-11 (200) nm 28 71.1 nm 15.9 12.4 82 89 1.3 (2.1) 1.5 0.8 5.6 98
SK Broadband 033630 KS U KRW 5,150 3,700 (28) 1,369 6.1 (4) (4) 8 73 10 (4) (6) 3 49 (5) Dec-11 nm 239 55 nm 69.6 20.5 13.2 97 108 0.0 2.0 1.4 1.1 4.9 113 Sector* (15) 30,903 (1) (3) 14 66 32 (1) (4) 11 57 32 Dec-12 63 31 17 20.0 12.3 9.4 8.0 85 93 4.1 9.2 1.1 1.0 4.4 66
Transportation Timothy Ross - 65 6212 3337
Korean Airlines 003490 KS O KRW 36,800 58,000 58 2,408 16.2 0 1 10 (17) (19) (1) 0 6 (27) (19) Dec-12 nm 18 87 nm 10.4 8.8 4.7 363 97 0.0 8.8 0.9 1.2 7.0 432 Asiana Airlines 020560 KS U KRW 5,710 6,500 14 1,000 3.2 0 3 15 (13) (8) (0) 2 12 (22) (8) Dec-12 na 67 19 na 5.3 3.2 2.7 346 260 0.0 18.6 1.0 1.1 10.3 231
Sector* 45 3,408 0 2 11 (16) (16) (1) 1 8 (25) (15) Dec-12 na 40 51 nm 8.1 5.8 3.8 355 146 0.0 8.8 0.9 1.1 7.7 381
Utilities A-Hyung Cho - 82 2 3707 3735
KEPCO 015760 KS O KRW 29,250 40,000 37 16,863 50.4 0 (3) (10) 29 (4) (1) (5) (14) 20 (4) Dec-11 nm nm 67 nm nm 11.3 6.7 106 109 0.0 (5.9) 0.4 1.4 13.0 101 KOGAS 036460 KS N KRW 62,400 77,000 23 4,331 18.4 (1) (7) (13) 46 (17) (2) (8) (16) 37 (17) Dec-11 107 (13) 38 27.6 13.3 15.4 11.1 93 83 2.6 4.4 0.6 0.8 12.4 288 Sector* 34 21,194 (0) (4) (11) 32 (7) (1) (5) (14) 23 (6) Dec-12 na 63 na nm 11.9 7.3 na 104 107 1.2 3.3 0.4 1.2 7.8 136
Country Average* KOSPI 1,994 2,326 17 715,525 1 1 4 9 (0) Dec-12 32 17 7 11.6 8.7 7.5 6.6 105 105 1.3 12.5 1.0 0.7 5.5 34
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Malaysia: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Automobiles & Components Annuar Aziz - 60 3 2723 2084
Tan Chong TCM MK U MYR 7.01 2.70 (61) 1,561 0.7 0 5 26 55 51 0 5 22 40 46 Dec-12 24 7 1 28.7 23.2 21.7 21.4 61 57 1.3 9.7 2.2 1.3 15.6 25
Banks Danny Goh - 60 3 2723 2083
Alliance Financial Group AFG MK O MYR 4.97 5.63 13 2,550 2.3 0 0 12 31 13 0 0 7 15 7 Mar-13 18 12 14 14.3 12.1 10.8 9.5 109 110 3.7 15.1 1.8 na na na CIMB Group CIMB MK O MYR 8.50 9.90 16 21,452 30.4 0 1 10 17 11 0 1 5 2 6 Dec-12 11 16 15 14.6 13.2 11.4 9.9 102 105 3.0 15.9 2.0 na na na
Hong Leong Bank HLBK MK N MYR 14.38 13.80 (4) 8,958 4.8 0 1 (1) 19 (3) 0 1 (5) 4 (8) Jun-12 15 12 12 16.4 14.3 12.7 11.4 96 100 2.8 15.6 2.1 na na na Maybank MAY MK O MYR 10.22 10.50 3 28,681 40.4 0 1 5 21 11 0 1 0 6 5 Dec-12 9 11 6 15.0 13.7 12.4 11.7 103 105 5.5 14.7 1.9 na na na Public Bank PBKF MK N MYR 16.70 17.50 5 13,682 6.9 0 0 2 23 2 0 (0) (3) 7 (3) Dec-12 10 17 12 15.2 13.8 11.8 10.5 102 108 3.3 22.4 2.9 na na na
RHB Capital RHBC MK O MYR 8.83 10.05 14 7,298 5.9 0 0 5 19 15 0 0 0 4 9 Dec-12 23 13 12 13.2 10.7 9.5 8.5 103 107 2.8 13.0 1.3 na na na Sector* 7 82,621 0 1 5 20 9 0 1 1 5 3 Dec-12 12 13 11 14.8 13.2 11.6 10.5 102 105 3.9 16.0 2.0 na na na
Capital Goods Danny Goh - 60 3 2723 2083
Gamuda GAM MK O MYR 4.95 5.82 18 3,601 9.5 0 2 21 43 36 0 2 17 28 30 Jul-12 3 35 36 19.6 18.9 14.0 10.3 96 108 2.3 13.4 2.3 2.8 18.2 7 IJM Corporation IJM MK O MYR 5.81 6.80 17 2,679 4.7 0 (1) 6 9 17 0 (1) 1 (6) 11 Mar-12 22 45 19 20.1 16.5 11.3 9.5 102 123 1.5 8.9 1.4 1.9 9.1 31
Sector* 17 6,280 0 1 15 29 28 0 1 10 14 22 Dec-12 28 30 na 18.3 14.4 11.1 na 109 124 2.1 12.9 1.7 1.9 10.1 20
Chemicals Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 66 2 614 6210
Petronas Chem PCHEM MK N MYR 6.55 6.30 (4) 17,364 7.5 0 (1) 1 2 2 0 (1) (3) (14) (3) Dec-12 5 9 (11) 14.9 14.2 13.0 14.6 97 104 3.5 17.4 2.4 2.6 7.2 (41)
Consumer Staples Tingmin Tan / Foong Wai Loke - 60 3 2723 2080 / 60 3 2723 2082
BAT Malaysia ROTH MK O MYR 64.94 72.00 11 6,145 3.4 0 1 4 23 5 0 1 (1) 8 (1) Dec-12 3 3 4 23.2 22.5 21.9 21.0 100 101 4.3 164.3 35.8 4.2 16.0 46 FGV FGV MK U MYR 4.62 4.00 (13) 5,585 4.4 0 1 1 na 0 0 1 (4) na (6) Dec-12 (14) 19 (2) 20.9 24.2 20.4 20.8 91 96 2.5 11.1 2.6 1.3 11.2 (45)
Genting Plantations GENP MK O MYR 9.00 9.38 4 2,263 0.9 0 0 4 (1) 0 0 (0) (0) (16) (6) Dec-12 (7) 29 13 20.9 22.3 17.3 15.2 85 94 1.3 8.5 1.8 4.7 15.6 (3) IOI Corp IOI MK U MYR 5.35 4.60 (14) 11,403 7.5 0 1 7 7 5 0 1 3 (8) (1) Jun-12 (17) 11 6 18.8 22.6 20.3 19.2 89 91 2.2 11.7 2.6 2.9 15.8 26 KLK KLK MK N MYR 21.74 20.00 (8) 7,690 5.9 0 (1) 0 (2) (9) 0 (1) (4) (17) (15) Sep-12 (18) 24 12 21.5 26.4 21.2 19.0 80 87 2.2 11.6 2.9 2.3 17.1 25
Sime Darby SIME MK O MYR 9.50 10.90 15 18,918 24.2 0 (1) 1 1 (0) 0 (1) (4) (15) (6) Jun-12 (6) 1 9 13.8 14.7 14.6 13.4 111 105 3.4 14.4 2.0 1.4 9.9 19 Sector* 1 52,005 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 (2) (11) (5) Dec-12 (4) 9 3 18.1 19.0 17.4 19.7 98 97 2.9 13.9 2.5 1.9 12.2 13
Diversified Financials Arjan van Veen / Danny Goh - 852 2101 7508 / 60 3 2723 2083
Bursa BURSA MK O MYR 8.14 9.50 17 1,436 2.6 0 2 12 29 31 0 2 8 13 25 Dec-12 28 22 14 28.6 22.4 18.5 16.2 115 125 4.3 20.1 4.1 na na na HLFG HLFG MK O MYR 15.68 16.50 5 5,470 1.4 0 (1) 2 33 19 0 (1) (2) 17 13 Jun-12 14 16 14 14.3 12.5 10.8 9.4 100 102 2.0 14.4 1.7 na na na
Sector* 8 6,906 0 (0) 5 32 21 0 (0) 0 17 16 Dec-12 17 16 14 15.0 12.9 11.1 16.2 103 106 2.6 15.0 1.8 na na na
Energy Annuar Aziz - 60 3 2723 2084
Bumi Armada BAB MK N MYR 3.98 3.80 (5) 3,864 2.2 0 (1) (0) 2 0 0 (1) (5) (14) (6) Dec-11 25 25 9 32.4 25.9 20.8 19.0 116 103 0.6 12.1 3.0 7.9 16.1 53 Malaysia Marine MMHE MK U MYR 3.69 3.40 (8) 1,956 1.3 0 (3) (7) (25) (16) 0 (3) (12) (40) (22) Dec-11 6 26 17 28.7 27.2 21.6 18.5 90 98 2.7 8.9 2.4 1.1 12.2 (79) Sector* (6) 5,820 0 (1) (3) (7) (5) 0 (2) (7) (22) (11) Dec-12 25 12 (1) 26.3 21.0 18.8 19.1 101 95 1.3 12.5 2.5 3.5 14.2 11
Healthcare Anand Swaminathan - 65 6212 3012
IHH IHH MK N MYR 3.93 3.30 (16) 10,582 7.2 0 1 7 na 17 0 1 2 na 11 Dec-12 14 24 23 58.3 50.9 41.2 33.5 91 89 0.0 3.5 1.8 5.1 25.6 7
KPJ KPJ MK O MYR 6.50 6.95 7 1,405 2.9 0 3 9 18 13 0 3 5 2 8 Dec-12 20 8 13 27.3 22.9 21.2 18.8 114 112 1.8 15.7 3.8 1.9 15.0 28 Sector* (13) 11,986 0 1 7 18 16 0 1 3 2 11 Dec-12 16 20 21 51.4 44.5 37.1 30.7 95 93 0.2 4.3 1.9 4.2 23.6 8
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Foong Wai Loke - 60 3 2723 2082
B Toto BST MK N MYR 4.46 4.65 4 1,997 1.7 0 2 6 5 2 0 2 1 (10) (3) Apr-11 13 6 5 17.6 15.5 14.7 14.0 98 99 4.8 75.4 10.7 1.6 9.9 0
Genting Malaysia GENM MK R MYR 3.95 7,773 6.7 0 2 7 9 11 0 2 2 (6) 6 Dec-12 16 6 6 16.6 14.3 13.5 12.8 94 95 1.7 11.6 1.6 2.4 7.5 (26) Genting Bhd GENT MK R MYR 10.70 13,188 11.6 0 (2) 7 4 16 0 (2) 2 (11) 11 Dec-12 (36) 7 4 10.0 15.7 14.6 14.1 107 104 0.6 11.0 1.6 1.8 4.3 (12) Sector* 4 22,958 0 (0) 7 6 13 0 (0) 2 (9) 8 Dec-12 (21) 7 5 12.0 15.1 14.2 13.5 102 100 1.4 12.1 1.7 1.9 5.3 (15)
Media Foong Wai Loke - 60 3 2723 2082
Astro ASTRO MK O MYR 3.15 3.50 11 5,426 6.9 0 0 9 na 5 0 (0) 5 na (1) Jan-13 (4) 19 27 39.2 40.7 34.3 27.0 86 79 1.8 71.6 26.7 3.9 12.3 293
Paper & Forest Products Foong Wai Loke - 60 3 2723 2082
Ta Ann TAH MK O MYR 3.68 6.08 65 452 0.2 0 (3) 5 (24) 5 0 (3) 1 (39) (0) Dec-10 101 6 3 17.7 8.8 8.3 8.0 95 247 2.0 17.7 1.4 1.5 5.8 26
Real Estate Tingmin Tan / Danny Goh - 60 3 2723 2080 / 60 3 2723 2083
IJM Land IJMLD MK O MYR 3.20 3.40 6 1,515 0.9 0 10 25 55 33 0 10 20 39 28 Mar-12 7 34 23 24.7 23.1 17.3 14.1 86 92 0.0 8.3 1.9 4.1 18.3 28 SP Setia SPSB MK N MYR 3.73 3.10 (17) 3,039 4.6 0 (4) 8 (0) 21 0 (4) 3 (16) 15 Oct-12 (1) 18 26 19.8 20.0 16.9 13.4 92 91 2.9 9.8 1.8 4.3 19.8 62
UEM Land ULHB MK O MYR 3.46 4.20 21 4,969 8.2 0 10 28 77 65 0 10 24 62 59 Dec-12 18 22 26 32.5 27.6 22.7 18.0 107 119 0.9 10.6 2.7 6.1 21.3 18 Sector* 7 9,523 0 6 21 49 46 0 6 17 34 40 Dec-12 13 22 26 25.7 22.7 18.7 18.0 98 102 1.4 10.2 2.1 4.8 19.5 35
REITS Tingmin Tan - 60 3 2723 2080
CMMT CMMT MK N MYR 1.89 1.99 5 1,109 0.7 0 1 1 25 5 0 1 (3) 10 (1) Dec-12 8 6 6 24.4 22.5 21.1 19.9 100 99 4.8 6.8 1.5 21.9 33 IGB REIT IGBREIT MK U MYR 1.37 1.30 (5) 1,546 1.4 0 0 (2) na 3 0 (0) (7) na (3) Dec-12 5 5 5 24.8 23.6 22.5 21.5 97 97 5.0 5.4 1.2 23.2 31
Pavilion REIT PREIT MK N MYR 1.60 1.65 3 1,595 0.8 0 3 1 31 15 0 3 (3) 16 10 Dec-12 6 7 2 24.7 23.2 21.7 21.3 98 98 4.5 6.1 1.4 22.8 15 Sunway REIT SREIT MK N MYR 1.64 1.62 (1) 1,585 0.7 0 4 3 31 6 0 4 (1) 16 0 Jun-12 8 1 12 23.2 21.5 21.4 19.1 100 97 5.0 6.7 1.4 nm 22.6 47 Sector* 0 5,835 0 2 1 30 7 0 2 (4) 14 2 Dec-12 6 6 4 24.0 22.7 21.3 21.0 98 98 4.8 6.2 1.4 nm 22.5 32
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Malaysia: Valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Telecommunication Services Foong Wai Loke - 60 3 2723 2082
Axiata AXIATA MK O MYR 6.94 8.00 15 19,612 32.1 0 (0) 3 29 5 0 (0) (2) 14 (0) Dec-12 1 16 12 22.4 22.1 19.0 17.0 93 99 3.5 13.0 2.8 3.4 8.7 23 DiGi DIGI MK O MYR 4.65 6.25 34 11,981 16.8 0 (1) (0) 19 (12) 0 (1) (5) 4 (18) Dec-12 41 11 6 30.0 21.3 19.2 18.2 102 103 4.7 669.4 147.7 5.4 11.6 33 Maxis MAXIS MK O MYR 6.98 8.00 15 17,349 16.9 0 0 4 13 5 0 0 (0) (2) (1) Dec-12 11 (1) 1 28.2 25.4 25.6 25.3 95 89 5.7 31.3 8.6 6.5 13.3 106
TM T MK U MYR 5.48 4.40 (20) 6,496 15.3 0 0 0 10 (9) 0 0 (4) (5) (15) Dec-12 (15) 8 16 22.3 26.1 24.2 20.9 93 93 4.0 10.9 2.9 2.1 6.6 33 Sector* 15 55,439 0 (0) 2 20 (0) 0 (0) (2) 4 (6) Dec-12 9 9 8 25.4 23.3 21.3 19.7 96 96 4.5 21.0 4.9 4.0 9.9 39
Transportation Annuar Aziz - 60 3 2723 2084
AirAsia AIRA MK O MYR 3.28 3.40 4 3,022 8.4 0 1 10 (3) 20 0 1 6 (19) 14 Dec-12 (53) 33 21 4.9 10.4 7.8 6.5 100 119 1.8 16.0 1.6 2.9 9.0 131 MAHB MAHB MK O MYR 6.15 6.80 11 2,512 2.8 0 (2) 6 6 18 0 (2) 2 (9) 12 Dec-12 0 (6) 10 18.9 18.8 20.0 18.2 111 96 2.7 8.9 1.6 2.9 11.2 78
MAS MAS MK U MYR 0.41 0.35 (15) 2,243 2.4 0 7 22 (16) 21 0 7 18 (31) 16 Dec-11 nm nm 686 nm nm 113.1 14.4 73 nm 0.0 (73.6) 2.4 1.1 nm 572 MISC MISC MK U MYR 4.43 4.60 4 6,553 5.2 0 (1) (3) 4 3 0 (1) (8) (11) (3) Dec-11 nm 30 13 nm 15.6 12.0 10.7 114 139 2.3 5.9 0.9 3.0 9.8 45 POSM POSM MK N MYR 4.63 3.30 (29) 824 1.6 0 3 5 70 33 0 3 1 54 27 Mar-12 7 19 22 17.9 16.8 14.1 11.6 98 103 2.8 15.8 2.5 1.6 8.2 (47)
Sector* 1 15,153 0 1 5 4 13 0 1 1 (12) 8 Dec-12 81 29 19 26.3 14.5 11.2 9.1 127 122 1.9 8.7 1.1 2.2 9.4 70
Utilities Annuar Aziz - 60 3 2723 2084
Tenaga TNB MK O MYR 8.30 9.60 16 15,243 23.3 0 0 5 30 20 0 (0) 1 14 14 Aug-12 (18) (1) 11 11.6 14.1 14.3 12.8 90 82 3.0 9.0 1.3 1.6 6.4 40 YTLP YTLP MK U MYR 1.53 1.40 (8) 3,720 2.2 0 0 3 (8) (2) 0 (0) (1) (23) (8) Jun-12 7 (15) 6 9.9 9.3 10.9 10.3 107 87 4.3 13.4 1.2 2.2 10.8 218 YTL Corp YTL MK N MYR 1.74 1.80 3 6,192 5.4 0 (3) 6 6 (8) 0 (3) 2 (9) (14) Jun-12 (8) 10 12 16.2 17.7 16.0 14.3 88 87 2.2 8.4 1.2 2.3 10.4 177
Sector* 9 25,155 0 (1) 5 18 10 0 (1) 1 3 4 Dec-12 (9) 3 na 12.6 13.8 13.4 na 89 86 3.0 9.3 1.2 1.9 8.2 101
Country Average* FBMKLCI 1,784 1,883 6 327,260 (0) 0 5 15 6 Dec-12 4 12 8 17.4 16.7 14.9 14.4 100 101 3.1 13.2 2.1 2.5 9.8 35
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
Pakistan: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Banks Farhan Rizvi - 65 6212 3036
MCB MCB PA U PKR 275.4 168.2 (39) 2,830 1.0 0 (5) 33 72 44 (1) (8) 19 21 18 Dec-12 (12) 11 14 11.8 13.4 12.0 10.6 97 95 4.4 18.9 2.4 na na na NBP NBP PA N PKR 43.84 42.00 (4) 947 1.7 0 4 7 10 2 (1) (0) (8) (41) (24) Dec-12 (4) 18 22 5.8 6.0 5.1 4.2 96 101 13.1 10.1 0.6 na na na UBL UBL PA N PKR 104.3 85.00 (19) 1,297 0.7 0 5 17 34 25 (1) 1 2 (17) (2) Dec-12 (7) 8 13 7.1 7.6 7.1 6.2 98 93 8.0 17.6 1.3 na na na
Sector* (27) 5,075 0 (1) 24 51 31 (1) (5) 9 (0) 5 Dec-12 (8) 12 16 8.7 9.4 8.4 7.2 96 95 6.9 14.7 1.4 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Farhan Rizvi - 65 6212 3036
DGKC DGKC PA O PKR 77.42 65.00 (16) 345 3.3 0 4 13 85 42 (1) 0 (1) 34 15 Jun-12 (0) 7 12 8.3 8.3 7.8 6.9 72 78 1.9 11.6 0.9 1.8 5.8 26 LUCKY LUCK PA O PKR 181.8 194.0 7 597 1.7 0 2 6 43 20 (1) (2) (8) (8) (6) Jun-12 34 5 10 8.6 6.5 6.2 5.6 98 102 4.4 24.9 1.5 1.8 4.8 17
Sector* (2) 942 0 3 9 58 28 (1) (1) (6) 7 2 Dec-12 12 8 11 7.7 6.8 6.3 5.7 90 95 3.9 17.5 1.1 1.7 5.1 18
Chemicals Farhan Rizvi - 65 6212 3036
Engro Corp ENGRO PA O PKR 141.2 170.0 20 733 8.4 0 (0) 8 34 53 (1) (4) (7) (17) 27 Dec-12 420 66 29 54.2 10.4 6.3 4.9 85 92 0.0 16.6 1.6 1.1 5.0 189 FATIMA FATIMA PA O PKR 23.49 30.50 30 501 0.4 0 (0) 2 (5) (11) (1) (4) (13) (56) (37) Dec-12 39 24 11 8.2 5.9 4.7 4.3 105 101 10.6 26.9 1.5 2.5 4.3 93 Fauji Fertiliser FFC PA N PKR 113.9 130.0 14 1,472 2.0 0 (0) 4 (2) (3) (1) (4) (11) (54) (29) Dec-11 (11) 4 5 6.2 7.0 6.7 6.4 100 108 12.9 86.3 5.8 1.9 4.4 (12)
Sector* 19 2,707 0 (0) 4 7 11 (1) (4) (10) (44) (15) Dec-12 31 21 11 9.5 7.2 6.0 5.4 102 103 9.7 37.4 2.5 1.5 4.7 117
Energy Farrukh Karim Khan - 65 6212 3035
OGDC OGDC PK O PKR 231.2 250.0 8 10,099 1.3 0 9 13 41 20 (1) 5 (2) (10) (6) Jun-12 21 18 23 10.3 8.5 7.2 5.9 108 110 3.9 39.6 3.0 3.6 4.9 (22) POL POL PA O PKR 499.2 505.0 1 1,199 1.4 0 1 8 35 14 (1) (3) (6) (16) (12) Jun-12 17 24 15 10.1 8.6 7.0 6.0 104 103 10.4 49.8 4.2 3.1 4.8 (39) PPL PPL PK N PKR 216.6 210.0 (3) 3,614 1.8 0 7 21 44 23 (1) 3 6 (7) (4) Jun-12 12 15 14 8.7 7.8 6.8 5.9 98 98 4.6 32.0 2.2 2.7 4.1 (35)
Sector* 5 14,913 0 8 14 42 20 (1) 4 (0) (9) (6) Dec-12 18 19 13 9.0 7.6 6.4 5.7 105 107 4.8 36.4 2.5 3.0 4.2 (30)
Utilities Farrukh Karim Khan - 65 6212 3035
HUBC HUBC PA U PKR 60.67 48.00 (21) 713 0.8 0 3 15 56 34 (1) (1) 0 5 8 Jun-12 9 5 15 8.6 7.9 7.5 6.6 97 92 11.5 28.5 2.2 0.7 6.3 150
Country Average* KSE100 21,361 21,087 (1) 24,350 1 4 15 51 26 Dec-12 13 17 13 8.9 7.9 6.7 5.9 102 104 6.0 27.8 2.0 2.1 4.4 2
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above. Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Philippines: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Banks Alvin Tan - 63 2 858 7752
BDO BDO PM U PHP 94.95 56.00 (41) 8,255 9.9 (0) (2) 2 64 30 (1) (1) (1) 15 3 Dec-11 (13) 25 19 24.3 27.8 22.3 18.6 77 85 0.8 10.5 2.4 na na na BPI BPI PM N PHP 105.4 64.50 (39) 9,100 4.4 (0) (0) (0) 58 11 (1) (0) (4) 9 (16) Dec-11 13 13 16 29.4 26.1 23.0 19.8 88 92 1.7 15.9 4.0 na na na Metrobank MBT PM O PHP 138.3 95.00 (31) 7,089 8.3 1 (0) 11 62 36 0 (0) 7 13 9 Dec-11 23 15 21 27.5 22.3 19.3 15.9 88 88 0.7 12.2 2.6 na na na
Security Bank SECB PM N PHP 188.2 84.17 (55) 2,295 2.9 2 (3) (6) 44 21 1 (3) (9) (5) (6) Dec-11 (27) 13 na 14.1 19.4 17.1 na 65 82 0.9 16.3 3.0 na na na Sector* (39) 26,739 0 (1) 3 60 24 (1) (1) (1) 11 (3) Dec-12 17 19 na 24.7 21.1 18.1 na 87 99 1.2 13.0 2.6 na na na
Conglomerates Alvin Arogo / Alvin Tan - 63 2 858 7716 / 63 2 858 7752
Ayala Corp AC PM N PHP 681.0 409.0 (40) 9,818 9.7 1 0 6 65 32 (0) 1 3 16 5 Dec-11 21 39 na 41.9 34.6 24.9 na 115 118 0.9 9.9 3.2 5.0 40.1 (7) Alliance Global AGI PM R PHP 27.00 6,732 9.6 3 (2) 4 113 61 2 (2) 0 64 34 Dec-10 18 13 24 38.0 32.2 28.6 23.0 71 69 0.0 12.9 3.7 5.4 25.3 (4)
San Miguel SMC PM O PHP 114.5 135.0 18 6,615 2.0 1 (7) (8) 1 9 (0) (7) (12) (48) (18) Dec-10 31 36 24 19.4 14.8 10.9 8.7 157 117 0.0 6.6 0.9 1.1 7.7 110 Sector* (17) 23,165 1 (2) 1 61 34 1 (2) (2) 12 7 Dec-12 28 na na 20.6 16.0 na na 102 na 0.5 10.9 1.7 1.5 8.9 32
Consumer Staples Karim Salamatian - 852 2101 7996
Universal Robina URC PM O PHP 129.2 141.0 9 6,466 5.2 1 (2) 9 113 54 1 (2) 5 64 27 Sep-12 13 20 17 35.0 31.0 25.8 22.0 107 111 1.8 18.0 5.4 3.1 19.2 (15)
Energy Alvin Arogo - 63 2 858 7716
Petron PCOR PM O PHP 15.98 14.00 (12) 3,637 2.4 2 (1) 4 55 53 1 (1) (0) 6 26 Dec-10 20 2 2 20.9 17.5 17.1 16.7 117 720 0.0 14.9 2.4 0.8 10.7 111
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Gabriel Chan - 852 2101 6523
Belle Corp BEL PM O PHP 6.60 6.50 (2) 1,692 2.4 1 1 1 39 36 0 1 (3) (10) 9 Dec-11 26 174 160 280.9 223.3 81.5 31.3 45 126 0.0 1.9 4.2 147.8 403.1 42 Bloomberry BLOOM PM O PHP 12.84 17.50 36 3,301 4.4 0 3 1 52 (3) (1) 3 (2) 4 (30) Dec-11 nm nm 98 nm nm 29.1 14.7 103 141 0.0 (5.9) 7.3 nm nm 2
Sector* 23 4,993 0 2 1 48 10 (0) 2 (3) (1) (17) Dec-12 na 108 25 nm 37.2 17.9 14.3 138 110 0.0 15.0 5.2 9.0 28.8 44
Real Estate Alvin Tan - 63 2 858 7752
ALI ALI PM O PHP 35.40 22.86 (35) 12,109 8.2 (0) 2 9 86 34 (1) 2 5 37 7 Dec-11 26 22 20 64.6 51.4 42.0 35.1 103 105 0.5 11.5 5.5 10.4 40.3 2 Filinvest Land FLI PM O PHP 2.19 1.70 (22) 1,289 1.4 0 4 13 72 47 (0) 4 9 24 20 Dec-11 5 16 17 18.1 17.3 14.9 12.7 91 94 1.5 6.9 1.2 7.4 21.4 33 Megaworld MEG PM R PHP 4.04 2,882 6.3 2 (4) (2) 99 46 1 (3) (6) 50 19 Dec-10 18 0 14 20.6 17.5 17.5 15.3 72 84 1.0 9.9 1.7 10.4 12.8 (5)
Robinsons Land RLC PM N PHP 24.55 18.82 (23) 2,440 2.1 1 (4) (4) 51 18 0 (4) (8) 2 (9) Sep-11 14 13 11 25.3 22.1 19.6 17.7 107 102 1.6 11.3 2.4 7.1 13.4 10 SM Prime SMPH PM N PHP 20.25 12.26 (39) 8,541 6.4 (2) (2) 1 57 23 (3) (2) (2) 8 (4) Dec-11 11 11 14 38.8 35.0 31.7 27.8 95 93 1.2 15.1 5.1 13.5 20.6 61 Sector* (35) 27,261 (1) (0) 4 74 31 (1) (0) 1 26 4 Dec-12 15 17 na 32.7 28.4 29.1 na 99 97 1.0 11.8 3.2 9.0 19.9 19
Telecommunication Services
Chate Benchavitvilai - 852 2101 7040
Globe Telecom GLO PM N PHP 1,560 1,700 9 5,014 2.8 (1) (3) 16 46 43 (2) (2) 12 (3) 16 Dec-12 2 18 14 20.2 19.7 16.7 14.7 111 108 4.3 23.9 5.0 2.9 7.2 125 PLDT TEL PM O PHP 3,178 3,500 10 16,670 12.0 0 (2) 6 33 26 (0) (2) 2 (16) (1) Dec-12 7 8 11 18.4 17.3 16.0 14.4 102 104 5.8 26.7 4.6 4.5 9.2 45 Sector* 10 21,684 (0) (2) 8 36 30 (1) (2) 4 (13) 3 Dec-12 6 10 12 18.8 17.8 16.2 14.5 104 105 5.4 26.0 4.7 3.9 8.6 63
Transportation Alvin Arogo / Annuar Aziz - 63 2 858 7716 / 60 3 2723 2084
Cebu CEB PM U PHP 80.00 63.00 (21) 1,177 0.8 0 (2) 2 19 29 (1) (2) (1) (30) 2 Dec-12 (6) (2) 6 13.6 14.4 14.8 13.9 105 85 1.3 14.3 2.0 1.3 8.4 35
ICTSI ICT PM O PHP 92.90 64.00 (31) 4,468 3.1 0 (1) 2 33 26 (1) (1) (2) (16) (2) Dec-11 11 19 18 36.2 32.5 27.4 23.2 120 108 0.4 19.5 5.9 6.6 15.1 65 Sector* (29) 5,645 0 (1) 2 30 26 (1) (1) (2) (19) (1) Dec-12 15 8 6 25.4 23.0 20.6 13.9 107 101 0.6 17.5 3.8 3.3 11.7 49
Utilities Alvin Arogo - 63 2 858 7716
Aboitiz Power AP PM N PHP 37.10 39.00 5 6,628 2.9 1 2 (0) 10 0 0 2 (4) (39) (27) Dec-11 5 (9) 5 12.6 12.1 13.3 12.6 93 101 4.0 30.4 3.4 4.9 12.8 50 EDC EDC PM O PHP 6.35 7.70 21 2,891 4.3 (1) (1) (3) 9 (6) (2) (1) (7) (40) (33) Dec-12 9 32 8 15.5 14.2 10.8 9.9 93 104 2.5 23.0 3.0 5.2 8.7 92
FGEN Corp FGEN PM O PHP 23.50 30.80 31 1,919 1.9 1 7 (1) 62 5 0 7 (5) 13 (22) Dec-12 17 28 3 13.6 11.6 9.1 8.8 105 119 0.0 12.1 1.3 1.8 9.2 43 Manila Electric MER PM N PHP 390.0 262.0 (33) 10,672 4.5 1 0 8 66 50 (0) 0 4 17 23 Dec-11 11 10 4 29.5 26.6 24.3 23.2 102 101 2.3 24.8 6.3 1.4 13.0 (35) Manila Water MWC PM O PHP 40.20 36.20 (10) 1,965 2.3 (0) (0) 1 66 26 (1) (0) (3) 18 (1) Dec-11 14 15 14 20.5 18.0 15.6 13.7 101 101 1.6 19.1 3.2 7.3 10.2 82
Sector* (9) 24,074 1 1 3 43 24 (0) 1 (1) (5) (3) Dec-12 3 13 9 17.3 16.8 14.8 13.7 100 107 2.7 21.3 3.4 2.3 11.0 30
Country Average* PCOMP 7,385 6,173 (16) 143,665 1 (0) 4 49 27 Dec-12 15 18 12 23.1 20.1 18.2 14.6 101 107 1.9 14.9 2.9 2.5 11.4 35
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above. Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Singapore: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Banks Anand Swaminathan - 65 6212 3012
DBS DBS SP R SGD 17.35 33,654 49.1 0 (0) 11 31 17 (1) (1) 6 8 8 Dec-12 3 9 14 12.7 12.4 11.4 10.0 96 98 3.2 10.6 1.3 na na na OCBC OCBC SP U SGD 11.14 9.80 (12) 30,430 27.2 0 (0) 4 30 14 (1) (1) (1) 7 5 Dec-12 (6) 9 12 13.9 14.8 13.6 12.1 97 98 3.0 11.1 1.6 na na na UOB UOB SP N SGD 22.00 21.00 (5) 27,472 38.2 0 0 6 24 11 (1) (1) 1 1 2 Dec-12 (2) 12 13 12.8 13.0 11.6 10.3 98 102 3.2 11.4 1.4 na na na
Sector* (8) 91,557 0 (0) 7 28 14 (1) (1) 2 6 5 Dec-12 (1) 10 13 13.1 13.3 12.1 10.7 96 99 3.1 10.9 1.4 na na na
Capital Goods Gerald Wong - 65 6212 3037
COSCO Corp COS SP U SGD 0.81 0.60 (26) 1,440 4.4 0 1 (9) (11) (9) (1) 0 (14) (34) (19) Dec-12 (30) (6) 12 17.2 24.6 26.3 23.4 94 75 2.5 5.5 1.3 1.0 10.2 83 Noble NOBL SP O SGD 1.06 1.70 60 5,477 23.8 0 (4) (7) (5) (9) (1) (4) (12) (28) (18) Dec-11 43 25 29 12.5 8.7 7.0 5.4 141 135 2.8 12.6 1.0 0.1 7.5 80 Sembcorp Marine SMM SP N SGD 4.51 4.00 (11) 7,482 18.4 0 1 7 (1) (2) (1) 1 3 (24) (11) Dec-12 8 27 (3) 18.8 17.3 13.6 14.1 92 96 3.1 20.9 3.4 1.7 10.6 (19)
Vard Holdings VARD SP N SGD 1.12 1.10 (2) 1,049 7.3 0 0 (3) (28) (14) (1) (1) (7) (51) (23) Dec-12 (5) (12) 12 6.7 7.1 8.1 7.2 99 80 4.6 24.2 1.6 0.3 2.7 (68) Yangzijiang Ship YZJ SP N SGD 0.89 1.10 24 2,711 9.8 0 2 (4) (11) (7) (1) 2 (9) (34) (17) Dec-12 (22) (28) 1 4.6 6.0 8.3 8.2 103 95 5.8 16.9 1.0 1.8 7.1 37 Sector* 15 18,159 0 (0) (1) (6) (6) (1) (1) (5) (29) (15) Dec-12 1 10 14 9.9 9.7 8.8 7.7 110 111 3.7 15.6 1.4 0.2 7.7 49
Conglomerates Gerald Wong - 65 6212 3037
Keppel Corp KEP SP O SGD 11.02 13.70 24 15,815 37.0 0 1 (0) 11 3 (1) 1 (5) (12) (7) Dec-12 0 0 5 10.3 10.3 10.3 9.8 123 118 4.6 20.0 2.0 1.8 9.5 25
Sembcorp Industries SCI SP N SGD 5.01 5.10 2 7,109 15.0 0 0 2 3 (5) (1) (1) (2) (19) (14) Dec-12 (6) 23 2 11.9 12.6 10.2 10.0 93 100 3.0 15.0 1.8 0.9 7.4 14 ST Engineering STE SP U SGD 4.33 3.40 (21) 10,671 6.5 0 (1) (2) 44 13 (1) (2) (6) 21 4 Dec-12 4 4 4 23.1 22.1 21.4 20.6 98 96 4.0 30.7 6.6 1.9 15.8 (22) Sector* 5 33,595 0 0 (0) 20 5 (1) (0) (5) (3) (5) Dec-12 (0) 6 4 13.0 13.0 12.3 11.8 110 108 4.1 19.8 2.5 1.5 10.0 17
Consumer Staples Tingmin Tan / Gerald Wong - 60 3 2723 2080 / 65 6212 3037
GGR GGR SP O SGD 0.57 0.80 40 5,809 31.2 0 0 8 (14) (12) (1) (1) 3 (37) (22) Dec-12 18 22 6 15.0 12.7 10.4 9.8 96 109 3.0 5.5 0.7 1.3 8.3 13
Olam OLAM SP R SGD 1.81 3,509 19.3 0 0 7 (1) 16 (1) (1) 2 (24) 7 Jun-12 59 31 27 16.6 10.5 8.0 6.3 124 132 2.4 11.5 1.2 0.7 10.6 193 Wilmar Intl WIL SP N SGD 3.39 3.81 12 17,232 28.0 0 1 2 (14) 1 (1) 0 (2) (37) (8) Dec-12 12 4 6 14.0 12.5 12.0 11.4 100 96 2.0 9.3 1.1 0.6 12.5 74 Sector* 19 26,551 0 0 4 (13) 0 (1) (0) (0) (35) (9) Dec-12 17 12 6 14.2 12.1 10.8 10.9 103 105 2.3 8.5 1.0 0.7 11.2 69
Diversified Financials Arjan van Veen / Anand Swaminathan - 852 2101 7508 / 65 6212 3012
HLF HLF SP U SGD 2.74 2.40 (12) 961 0.2 0 (0) (2) 22 8 (1) (1) (6) (1) (1) Dec-12 (3) 18 16 16.0 16.6 14.0 12.1 101 111 4.4 4.6 0.7 na na na
SGX SGX SP O SGD 7.62 9.25 21 6,482 10.6 0 (3) 1 21 9 (1) (3) (4) (2) (1) Jun-12 17 29 15 28.0 23.9 18.6 16.1 104 121 3.9 39.9 9.1 na na na Sector* 17 7,444 0 (2) 1 21 9 (1) (3) (4) (2) (1) Dec-12 18 21 18 23.9 20.2 16.7 14.2 111 121 4.4 18.6 3.6 na na na
Healthcare Anand Swaminathan / Iris Wang - 65 6212 3012 / 852 2101 7646
Biosensors BIG SP O SGD 1.22 1.96 61 1,688 4.6 0 (1) (1) (6) 1 (1) (1) (5) (29) (8) Mar-12 3 8 11 13.7 13.3 12.3 11.1 109 109 0.0 10.8 1.3 3.7 9.2 (30) IHH Heathcare IHH SP N SGD 1.62 1.33 (18) 10,582 7.2 0 0 9 na 20 (1) (0) 5 na 10 Dec-12 14 24 23 57.4 50.1 40.5 33.0 80 81 0.0 3.5 1.7 5.1 25.6 7
Raffles Medical RFMD SP U SGD 3.37 2.80 (17) 1,465 0.9 0 3 1 62 29 (1) 3 (4) 39 19 Dec-12 8 11 7 32.0 29.6 26.7 25.1 100 94 1.3 14.9 4.2 5.1 21.0 (21) Sector* (8) 13,735 0 0 7 26 18 (1) (0) 2 3 9 Dec-12 10 17 20 39.0 35.4 30.1 32.5 89 88 0.1 5.3 1.8 4.9 21.2 (1)
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Foong Wai Loke - 60 3 2723 2082
Genting Singapore GENS SP O SGD 1.49 1.80 21 14,459 35.3 0 (0) 6 (4) 8 (1) (1) 1 (26) (2) Dec-12 37 16 9 30.8 22.6 19.5 18.0 116 111 0.7 8.6 1.9 4.9 10.4 (19)
Insurance Arjan van Veen - 852 2101 7508
Great Eastern GE SP O SGD 19.03 22.50 18 7,150 0.9 0 1 5 49 22 (1) 1 (0) 27 12 Dec-12 (48) 10 10 7.6 14.5 13.2 12.0 111 114 3.4 12.1 1.7 na na na
Media Anand Swaminathan - 65 6212 3012
SingPress SPH SP N SGD 4.43 4.50 2 5,626 16.2 0 (0) 2 16 10 (1) (1) (3) (6) 1 Aug-12 2 5 5 19.6 19.3 18.4 17.6 101 103 5.4 16.6 3.2 6.2 15.6 44
Real Estate Yvonne Voon - 65 6212 3026
CapitaLand CAPL SP O SGD 3.72 4.53 22 12,613 33.2 0 (2) 5 48 1 (1) (2) 1 26 (9) Dec-12 45 24 23 42.8 29.5 23.9 19.4 72 71 1.9 3.5 1.0 6.8 15.5 39
CapitaMalls Asia CMA SP O SGD 2.03 2.58 27 6,272 12.1 0 0 3 46 5 (1) (0) (2) 23 (5) Dec-12 (55) 28 11 14.4 32.0 24.9 22.5 96 104 1.5 3.7 1.2 24.4 111.6 29 CDL CIT SP O SGD 11.15 13.60 22 8,049 10.7 0 (2) (1) 8 (13) (1) (2) (5) (14) (23) Dec-12 12 13 8 18.9 16.9 14.9 13.9 93 92 1.2 7.7 1.2 3.5 9.2 18 GLP GLP SP O SGD 2.95 3.00 2 11,141 40.4 0 2 6 50 6 (1) 2 2 27 (3) Mar-12 8 (10) 1 34.3 31.9 35.5 35.0 94 81 1.2 4.1 1.2 19.5 22.5 9
KepLand KPLD SP N SGD 4.08 4.10 0 5,008 9.2 0 (0) (2) 42 1 (1) (1) (7) 19 (8) Dec-12 (10) 7 11 13.6 15.1 14.2 12.8 103 98 2.9 6.6 1.0 7.7 38.4 35 OUE OUE SP O SGD 3.15 3.50 11 2,455 3.5 0 (1) 3 52 13 (1) (2) (2) 30 4 Dec-12 (2) 52 11 29.2 29.8 19.7 17.7 98 115 2.0 3.0 0.9 13.8 26.0 76 Wing Tai WINGT SP N SGD 2.28 1.75 (23) 1,437 2.1 0 (2) 10 77 22 (1) (3) 5 54 13 Jun-12 (30) 37 25 7.9 11.3 8.2 6.6 82 127 2.7 7.1 0.8 3.3 12.0 26
Sector* 14 46,975 0 (0) 3 42 1 (1) (1) (1) 19 (8) Dec-12 (6) 16 12 22.4 23.7 20.4 19.3 89 88 1.7 4.7 1.1 7.5 18.6 30
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Singapore: Valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
REITS Yvonne Voon - 65 6212 3026
AREIT AREIT SP U SGD 2.71 2.48 (8) 5,162 14.4 0 (1) 3 35 14 (1) (2) (2) 12 5 Mar-13 18 7 1 22.9 19.3 18.0 17.8 97 99 5.3 7.1 1.4 21.5 42 Ascott REIT ART SP N SGD 1.50 1.44 (4) 1,502 1.7 0 5 3 45 12 (1) 4 (2) 23 3 Dec-12 (7) 4 0 25.3 27.2 26.2 26.1 81 80 5.5 4.2 1.1 20.9 49 CCT CCT SP N SGD 1.70 1.59 (6) 3,861 11.5 0 0 2 35 1 (1) (1) (3) 12 (8) Dec-12 (1) 0 18 24.9 25.1 25.0 21.2 92 93 4.9 4.4 1.0 24.6 42
CDL REIT CDREIT SP O SGD 1.99 2.30 16 1,530 3.6 0 2 (4) 11 6 (1) 1 (9) (12) (4) Dec-12 14 2 2 17.9 15.7 15.5 15.1 108 105 6.3 7.7 1.2 17.7 33 CMT CT SP O SGD 2.34 2.47 6 6,423 14.9 0 0 2 30 10 (1) (0) (3) 7 1 Dec-12 18 12 7 27.3 23.1 20.6 19.3 103 109 4.2 6.0 1.4 21.3 32 FCT FCT SP N SGD 2.20 2.19 (0) 1,440 1.7 0 (1) (4) 35 10 (1) (2) (9) 12 1 Sep-12 (1) 4 4 21.4 21.6 20.7 19.8 92 98 4.8 6.5 1.4 24.4 43
K-REIT KREIT SP N SGD 1.57 1.32 (16) 3,332 5.9 0 2 8 61 21 (1) 1 3 38 12 Dec-12 17 8 4 36.0 30.8 28.6 27.5 88 93 4.9 3.7 1.1 42.4 62 MCT MCT SP N SGD 1.44 1.45 1 2,355 3.4 0 (6) 1 56 18 (1) (7) (3) 33 9 Mar-13 19 4 3 26.1 21.9 21.1 20.4 104 103 4.9 6.1 1.3 26.6 68 MINT MINT SP N SGD 1.56 1.70 9 2,033 4.3 0 (2) (0) 37 15 (1) (2) (5) 15 6 Mar-13 7 4 7 17.5 16.3 15.7 14.6 105 104 6.2 8.4 1.3 20.3 60
MLT MLT SP O SGD 1.34 1.41 5 2,577 3.4 0 (1) 1 41 17 (1) (1) (3) 19 8 Mar-13 (3) (1) 2 16.1 16.7 16.9 16.5 107 104 5.3 8.7 1.4 19.0 49 SUNT SUN SP U SGD 1.88 1.65 (12) 3,374 11.0 0 (1) (4) 44 13 (1) (1) (9) 21 3 Dec-12 (16) 8 10 17.1 20.2 18.7 17.0 141 132 5.1 4.4 0.9 41.0 56 Sector* (2) 33,590 0 (0) 1 39 12 (1) (1) (3) 16 3 Dec-12 5 6 6 22.6 21.5 20.2 19.1 102 103 5.0 5.8 1.2 24.6 47
Retailing Anand Swaminathan - 65 6212 3012
OSIM OSIM SP O SGD 2.03 2.20 8 1,213 2.0 0 2 5 70 17 (1) 1 0 47 8 Dec-12 15 14 13 17.2 15.0 13.1 11.6 100 102 3.4 45.9 6.5 2.2 10.0 (32)
Technology Anand Swaminathan - 65 6212 3012
Amtek Eng AMTK SP N SGD 0.51 0.70 37 218 0.3 0 5 (2) (26) 2 (1) 5 (7) (48) (7) Jun-12 13 28 22 6.5 5.7 4.5 3.6 138 143 8.7 23.5 1.3 0.3 2.9 (3) Venture VMS SP N SGD 7.26 8.25 14 1,585 2.9 0 0 (14) (7) (10) (1) (0) (18) (30) (19) Dec-11 (2) 27 13 12.7 13.0 10.2 9.1 110 127 7.6 8.4 1.1 0.6 7.5 (26) Sector* 17 1,803 0 1 (12) (9) (8) (1) 0 (17) (32) (18) Dec-12 25 15 na 11.4 9.0 7.8 na 130 131 8.0 12.5 1.1 0.5 5.0 (24)
Telecommunication Services
Chate Benchavitvilai - 852 2101 7040
M1 M1 SP O SGD 3.42 3.60 5 2,500 2.9 0 (2) 9 39 26 (1) (3) 5 16 17 Dec-12 4 9 9 21.1 20.3 18.6 17.0 94 95 4.3 42.8 8.4 3.1 11.0 69 StarHub STH SP N SGD 4.36 4.40 1 5,957 6.7 0 (5) (3) 35 15 (1) (5) (8) 12 6 Dec-12 7 3 3 20.8 19.5 18.9 18.4 106 105 4.8 691.8 110.5 3.1 10.5 581 SingTel ST SP O SGD 3.98 4.25 7 50,374 60.7 0 (0) 8 27 21 (1) (1) 3 5 11 Mar-13 10 8 12 18.1 16.4 15.2 13.6 100 100 4.5 15.8 2.5 3.9 13.5 28
Sector* 6 58,831 0 (1) 7 28 20 (1) (1) 2 6 11 Dec-12 4 8 10 17.9 17.1 15.9 14.4 100 100 4.5 17.5 2.9 3.8 13.0 30
Transportation Timothy Ross / Anand Swaminathan / Annuar Aziz / Leonard Huo - 65 6212 3337 / 65 6212 3012 / 60 3 2723 2084 / 65 6212 3062
ComfortDelGro CD SP N SGD 2.19 1.85 (16) 3,680 5.8 0 5 14 48 23 (1) 5 10 25 14 Dec-12 5 3 3 18.4 17.6 17.1 16.6 101 99 2.8 12.6 2.2 1.3 6.0 (1) HPHT HPHT SP U USD 0.83 0.74 (11) 7,188 18.5 0 1 2 17 4 (1) 0 (3) (6) (5) Dec-12 10 11 11 24.4 22.1 19.8 17.8 112 117 7.0 3.8 0.8 5.9 10.5 29 NOL NOL SP U SGD 1.12 0.95 (15) 2,294 7.9 0 1 (1) 4 (3) (1) 1 (5) (18) (12) Dec-12 nm 165 27 nm 18.5 7.0 5.5 184 141 2.8 5.2 0.9 0.4 6.9 77
SATS SATS SP O SGD 3.25 3.70 14 2,876 2.9 0 1 4 24 12 (1) 0 (0) 1 3 Mar-13 14 9 11 18.0 15.8 14.5 13.1 109 110 5.2 16.2 2.5 1.6 9.9 (20) SIA SIA SP N SGD 10.87 12.60 16 10,354 6.9 0 (5) 1 5 1 (1) (5) (3) (17) (8) Mar-13 107 21 na 32.6 15.8 13.1 na 117 121 3.8 6.2 1.0 0.8 4.9 (28) SMRT MRT SP U SGD 1.45 1.15 (21) 1,751 1.8 0 1 (4) (10) (14) (1) 0 (9) (33) (23) Mar-13 (6) 21 13 21.9 23.2 19.2 16.9 93 98 2.2 11.9 2.7 2.4 9.9 77
Tiger Airways TGR SP U SGD 0.67 0.62 (7) 520 1.4 0 0 2 8 (2) (1) (1) (3) (14) (12) Mar-12 nm nm 134 nm nm 15.0 6.4 78 70 0.0 (17.0) 2.8 1.2 25.5 174 Sector* (0) 28,663 0 (1) 3 15 5 (1) (1) (2) (8) (5) Dec-12 130 34 17 43.6 18.9 14.1 12.3 112 118 4.2 6.0 1.1 1.1 7.2 9
Utilities Gerald Wong - 65 6212 3037
Hyflux HYF SP N SGD 1.37 1.50 9 939 1.3 0 (3) (4) 3 7 (1) (3) (9) (20) (2) Dec-12 (17) 31 22 31.0 37.5 28.7 23.5 65 68 2.1 6.4 2.3 3.4 17.5 103
Country Average* FSSTI 3,461 3,639 5 390,290 1 1 5 23 9 Dec-12 4 12 11 16.6 15.7 14.1 12.9 101 103 3.4 9.7 1.4 1.1 12.1 32
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Taiwan: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Automobiles & Components
Jeremy Chen - 886 2 2715 6368
Cheng Shin Rubber 2105 TT O TWD 96.20 105.0 9 9,100 18.2 1 0 (4) 52 28 1 (1) (10) 37 19 Dec-12 23 18 10 17.1 13.9 11.8 10.7 107 112 1.6 28.1 3.5 2.2 9.8 77
Banks Chung Hsu - 886 2 2715 6362
Chang Hwa Bank 2801 TT N TWD 17.35 16.50 (5) 4,217 6.7 0 0 3 19 9 (0) (1) (3) 4 (0) Dec-11 (1) (6) 5 13.3 13.4 14.2 13.5 112 104 2.2 8.9 1.2 na na na
Ta Chong Bank 2847 TT N TWD 10.70 11.00 3 807 2.2 1 2 3 (7) 7 1 1 (2) (23) (2) Dec-12 14 15 4 13.7 12.0 10.4 9.9 98 102 2.5 7.1 0.8 na na na Hua Nan Financial 2880 TT U TWD 17.50 15.20 (13) 5,066 4.2 1 1 4 15 4 0 0 (2) (1) (5) Dec-11 (4) 1 9 15.1 15.7 15.6 14.3 108 98 1.6 7.3 1.2 na na na E. Sun Financial 2884 TT O TWD 18.00 19.50 8 3,027 7.9 0 0 1 26 11 (0) (1) (4) 11 2 Dec-12 12 12 7 12.5 11.2 10.0 9.4 104 109 1.8 10.3 1.1 na na na
Mega Financial 2886 TT N TWD 24.25 24.00 (1) 9,318 19.0 (0) 3 4 16 7 (0) 2 (1) 1 (2) Dec-12 1 6 13 12.9 12.8 12.0 10.6 97 97 3.5 9.9 1.2 na na na Taishin Financial 2887 TT N TWD 13.55 11.80 (13) 3,134 9.6 0 (0) 8 32 17 0 (1) 3 17 8 Dec-12 20 (2) 11 10.4 8.7 8.8 7.9 103 109 1.8 12.0 1.0 na na na SinoPac Financial 2890 TT N TWD 14.90 13.00 (13) 3,785 10.7 (1) (1) 2 57 20 (2) (2) (3) 42 11 Dec-11 198 (7) 6 34.4 11.5 12.4 11.6 103 99 3.4 10.2 1.2 na na na
Chinatrust Financial 2891 TT O TWD 18.80 21.50 14 8,676 25.9 0 3 6 21 11 0 2 1 5 2 Dec-12 (5) 3 9 10.7 11.3 10.9 10.0 113 101 3.7 11.7 1.3 na na na First FHC 2892 TT U TWD 18.60 16.50 (11) 5,072 7.7 0 1 5 17 5 0 0 (0) 1 (4) Dec-11 27 3 13 18.3 14.4 14.0 12.4 103 95 1.9 7.9 1.2 na na na Sector* (2) 43,101 0 2 4 22 10 (0) 1 (1) 7 1 Dec-12 1 6 10 12.5 12.4 11.6 9.8 102 102 2.7 9.5 1.1 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Jeremy Chen - 886 2 2715 6368
Taiwan Cement 1101 TT O TWD 39.70 40.00 1 4,919 9.9 1 1 1 21 2 0 (0) (4) 6 (7) Dec-12 19 17 10 19.0 15.9 13.6 12.4 100 103 4.8 12.3 1.9 5.7 36.8 0 Asia Cement 1102 TT N TWD 37.80 34.10 (10) 4,099 6.1 (0) (0) 2 17 1 (0) (1) (3) 1 (8) Dec-12 25 6 7 19.6 15.6 14.8 13.9 105 102 4.5 11.6 1.8 2.6 17.9 61 Sector* (4) 9,018 0 0 1 19 2 (0) (1) (4) 4 (7) Dec-12 22 12 8 19.2 15.8 14.1 13.0 102 103 4.7 11.9 1.9 3.4 23.2 31
Chemicals Chung Hsu / Jeremy Chen - 886 2 2715 6362 / 886 2 2715 6368
Formosa Plastics 1301 TT O TWD 73.30 83.00 13 15,057 16.4 (1) (1) 6 (7) (7) (1) (2) 1 (23) (16) Dec-12 46 30 10 30.6 20.9 16.0 14.6 89 100 1.6 11.3 2.3 2.4 21.8 10
NYPC 1303 TT N TWD 64.00 65.90 3 16,866 13.9 0 2 17 11 14 (0) 1 11 (5) 5 Dec-12 570 29 6 119.2 17.8 13.7 13.0 129 138 0.5 12.4 2.1 1.8 13.3 26 FCFC 1326 TT N TWD 74.30 69.60 (6) 14,189 12.7 (0) 0 10 (6) (1) (0) (1) 4 (22) (10) Dec-12 159 49 9 59.6 23.0 15.5 14.2 85 116 0.9 10.3 2.3 1.2 12.6 27 Taiwan Fertilizer 1722 TT N TWD 76.50 77.00 1 2,516 8.9 0 3 9 10 1 (0) 2 4 (5) (8) Dec-12 5 37 (8) 22.5 21.5 15.7 17.1 98 102 3.3 6.4 1.3 4.4 40.0 (6)
Sector* 3 48,628 (0) 1 11 0 3 (1) (0) 6 (15) (6) Dec-12 144 35 7 49.4 20.2 15.0 14.0 100 117 1.1 11.0 2.1 1.7 15.2 20
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Randy Abrams - 886 2 2715 6366
FENC 1402 TT N TWD 32.90 36.89 12 5,569 9.2 0 (0) 3 6 (1) 0 (1) (2) (9) (10) Dec-10 (11) (16) 5 12.5 14.1 16.9 16.1 106 114 5.3 11.8 1.6 3.6 98.8 49
Consumer Staples Chung Hsu - 886 2 2715 6362
Uni-President 1216 TT N TWD 60.70 54.00 (11) 9,905 17.6 0 2 4 42 14 (0) 1 (2) 26 5 Dec-12 10 8 8 23.8 21.7 20.1 18.5 106 103 2.5 15.8 3.3 6.5 86.8 28
Diversified Financials Chung Hsu / Michelle Chou - 886 2 2715 6362 / 886 2 2715 6363
China Development FHC 2883 TT O TWD 8.90 9.60 8 4,488 17.3 0 4 5 21 17 0 3 (1) 6 8 Dec-12 28 12 7 22.8 17.8 16.0 14.9 100 100 2.0 4.7 0.8 na na na Yuanta FHC 2885 TT N TWD 16.55 15.50 (6) 5,495 10.3 1 5 13 30 11 1 4 8 14 2 Dec-12 12 10 3 27.0 24.2 22.0 21.4 88 85 1.4 4.4 1.1 na na na Sector* 0 9,984 1 5 9 26 14 1 4 4 10 4 Dec-12 20 11 5 24.9 20.8 18.8 17.9 94 92 1.7 4.5 0.9 na na na
Energy Jeremy Chen - 886 2 2715 6368
FPCC 6505 TT U TWD 83.60 72.00 (14) 26,727 6.8 (0) (1) 10 0 (3) (1) (2) 4 (15) (12) Dec-12 945 33 8 292.9 28.0 21.1 19.5 121 129 0.3 12.9 3.4 1.2 17.0 64
Healthcare Jeremy Chen - 886 2 2715 6368
ST.SHINE OPTICAL ORD 1565 TT O TWD 697.0 750.0 8 1,179 1.9 (1) (0) 13 112 58 (1) (1) 8 97 49 Dec-12 29 21 12 29.2 22.6 18.7 16.7 107 111 2.5 43.7 9.0 6.6 17.3 (23) GINKO ORD 8406 TT N TWD 535.0 515.0 (4) 1,624 2.5 (1) 0 (6) 86 65 (1) (1) (11) 71 56 Dec-12 31 34 19 44.3 33.7 25.2 21.1 105 108 0.9 22.7 7.1 9.2 25.0 (26) Sector* 1 2,803 (1) (0) 2 97 62 (1) (1) (3) 82 53 Dec-12 30 27 16 36.4 27.9 22.0 19.0 106 109 1.6 30.3 7.8 7.9 21.0 (25)
Insurance Chung Hsu - 886 2 2715 6362
China Life Taiwan 2823 TT O TWD 31.85 38.00 19 2,552 15.4 (1) 3 10 23 22 (1) 2 5 8 12 Dec-11 5 15 18 16.7 15.8 13.8 11.7 102 111 2.6 10.3 1.3 na na na
Fubon FHC 2881 TT N TWD 41.70 43.00 3 13,335 27.3 (1) (1) (0) 50 19 (1) (2) (6) 34 10 Dec-12 5 11 15 13.7 13.1 11.7 10.2 100 105 2.5 9.8 1.2 na na na Cathay FHC 2882 TT N TWD 40.90 44.00 8 14,914 34.8 0 0 5 47 30 (0) (1) (0) 32 21 Dec-12 62 18 9 26.1 16.1 13.6 12.4 104 121 0.9 10.9 1.7 na na na Shin Kong FHC 2888 TT N TWD 10.35 8.80 (15) 2,930 10.8 0 1 12 25 26 0 0 7 9 17 Dec-11 79 35 (42) 15.9 8.9 6.6 11.4 104 125 0.0 13.1 1.1 na na na
Sector* 5 33,732 (0) (0) 4 44 25 (0) (1) (1) 29 15 Dec-12 27 5 11 16.6 13.1 12.4 11.3 106 112 1.6 10.8 1.3 na na na
Metals & Mining Jeremy Chen - 886 2 2715 6368
China Steel 2002 TT U TWD 26.25 22.40 (15) 13,454 15.3 0 1 2 (6) (4) 0 (0) (4) (21) (13) Dec-12 111 44 7 68.7 32.6 22.7 21.2 96 115 1.5 4.7 1.5 1.6 10.8 81
Real Estate Chung Hsu - 886 2 2715 6362
Prince Housing 2511 TT O TWD 21.20 27.80 31 850 3.7 (0) (0) (1) 13 2 (1) (1) (6) (3) (7) Dec-11 (29) (3) 54 9.9 13.9 14.3 9.3 99 90 2.2 11.5 1.5 5.4 18.2 92 Huaku 2548 TT N TWD 93.50 71.00 (24) 869 3.9 (1) 3 15 42 32 (1) 2 10 27 23 Dec-11 (35) 20 (4) 9.1 13.9 11.6 12.0 111 72 5.0 15.2 2.1 5.2 17.7 48
Ruentex Development 9945 TT N TWD 60.90 61.00 0 2,092 13.6 0 5 3 39 2 0 4 (3) 24 (7) Dec-12 39 27 3 18.0 12.9 10.2 9.9 115 88 2.2 19.5 2.1 7.3 36.8 36 Sector* 2 3,811 (0) 3 5 34 9 (0) 3 (0) 19 (0) Dec-12 23 25 (11) 15.9 12.9 10.3 11.1 95 90 3.0 16.3 1.9 5.3 22.9 50
Retailing Chung Hsu - 886 2 2715 6362
President Chain Store 2912 TT N TWD 193.0 156.0 (19) 6,734 7.0 0 1 8 23 24 (0) 0 2 7 15 Dec-12 9 7 11 29.6 27.1 25.3 22.8 100 97 3.1 31.0 8.1 1.2 20.8 (81)
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Taiwan: Valuation summary Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Technology Randy Abrams / Jerry Su / Jimmy Huang / Pauline Chen / Thompson Wu - 886 2 2715 6366 / 886 2 2715 6361 / 886 2 2715 6352 / 886 2 2715 6323 / 886 2 2715 6386
TECO ELECTRIC ORD 1504 TT O TWD 30.00 32.50 8 1,886 4.7 3 5 10 48 35 3 4 5 32 26 Dec-12 21 13 11 18.7 15.4 13.6 12.3 103 99 4.0 9.6 1.4 0.9 8.1 (4) AIRTAC ORD 1590 TT N TWD 160.0 170.0 6 805 2.9 0 (3) 2 4 (5) (0) (4) (3) (12) (14) Dec-12 30 23 na 21.7 16.8 13.6 na 99 99 3.3 23.3 3.7 3.9 10.8 51 HIWIN ORD 2049 TT U TWD 202.5 167.0 (18) 1,675 19.6 (1) 4 (9) (25) (5) (1) 3 (14) (41) (14) Dec-12 (4) 34 na 24.9 26.0 19.4 na 85 93 1.3 18.4 4.6 4.8 16.9 73
Lite-on Tech 2301 TT O TWD 50.10 60.00 20 3,876 9.0 2 7 (2) 42 30 1 6 (7) 27 21 Dec-12 17 13 3 15.3 13.0 11.5 11.2 97 97 5.5 12.4 1.6 0.7 7.2 (27) UMC 2303 TT N TWD 13.90 12.00 (14) 5,903 23.1 (1) 7 24 4 19 (2) 6 19 (11) 10 Dec-12 142 (33) 11 31.9 13.2 19.8 17.8 124 90 3.5 6.4 0.8 1.1 3.2 (14) Delta 2308 TT O TWD 146.5 160.0 9 11,928 19.0 0 0 8 61 38 (0) (1) 3 46 28 Dec-12 14 6 7 22.0 19.4 18.2 17.0 97 92 4.1 18.0 3.4 1.9 11.6 (30)
ASE 2311 TT O TWD 26.10 31.00 19 6,659 17.8 0 1 0 6 4 0 0 (5) (9) (6) Dec-12 20 19 8 15.0 12.4 10.4 9.7 105 109 4.2 14.0 1.7 1.2 5.5 40 Hon Hai 2317 TT N TWD 78.30 74.00 (5) 31,102 120.7 1 0 2 (1) (12) 1 (1) (4) (17) (21) Dec-12 (10) 19 6 9.8 10.8 9.1 8.6 91 95 1.7 11.8 1.2 0.2 4.6 (20) Compal 2324 TT N TWD 18.60 20.00 8 2,754 11.9 1 2 0 (42) (5) 0 1 (5) (57) (14) Dec-12 13 19 5 12.7 11.2 9.4 8.9 90 101 3.6 6.2 0.7 0.1 3.8 (11)
SPIL 2325 TT O TWD 36.80 40.00 9 3,849 11.3 2 4 9 17 19 2 3 3 2 10 Dec-12 4 16 17 20.2 19.4 16.8 14.4 99 87 4.2 9.7 1.9 1.7 6.4 0 TSMC 2330 TT O TWD 112.0 116.0 4 97,460 124.1 (0) (3) 3 36 15 (1) (4) (2) 21 6 Dec-12 12 15 12 17.4 15.6 13.6 12.1 99 100 2.7 24.0 3.5 4.8 7.8 3 Synnex 2347 TT U TWD 43.85 37.00 (16) 2,333 12.8 1 (12) (12) (35) (18) 1 (13) (17) (51) (27) Dec-12 (9) 8 6 11.9 13.0 12.0 11.3 90 88 4.2 12.4 1.5 0.3 19.4 51
Acer 2353 TT U TWD 24.80 21.00 (15) 2,359 13.8 0 2 6 (19) (2) 0 2 0 (35) (11) Dec-12 nm 62 31 nm 28.6 17.7 13.5 131 131 2.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 5.0 (56) FTC 2354 TT N TWD 82.10 87.00 6 3,408 21.9 1 2 6 (14) (10) 1 1 0 (29) (19) Dec-12 7 9 6 12.1 11.4 10.5 9.9 104 105 1.3 13.6 1.4 0.4 4.2 (64) Asustek 2357 TT N TWD 347.5 370.0 6 8,779 40.5 (0) 2 5 16 6 (0) 1 (0) 1 (3) Dec-12 7 1 1 11.7 10.9 10.8 10.7 99 95 5.5 18.0 1.9 0.4 7.7 (38)
Chroma 2360 TT O TWD 64.00 80.00 25 809 1.3 (0) 1 2 4 (1) (0) 0 (4) (11) (10) Dec-12 72 26 na 25.5 14.9 11.8 na 116 121 4.7 20.2 2.8 1.9 10.1 (18) Realtek 2379 TT N TWD 87.60 85.00 (3) 1,466 9.7 (0) 2 14 55 43 (0) 1 8 39 34 Dec-11 40 43 12 26.9 19.2 13.5 12.1 102 118 2.6 12.8 2.4 1.3 7.6 (60) Quanta 2382 TT N TWD 64.40 63.00 (2) 8,330 20.5 (1) 6 13 (21) (6) (1) 5 8 (36) (15) Dec-12 (10) 17 9 10.7 11.9 10.1 9.3 96 102 5.5 15.7 1.8 0.3 10.3 2
Wintek 2384 TT U TWD 16.10 10.00 (38) 998 20.7 5 9 10 (9) 5 4 8 5 (24) (5) Dec-11 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 100 99 0.0 (8.5) 0.9 0.6 8.9 93 Chicony 2385 TT O TWD 85.00 85.00 0 1,928 6.3 (0) 2 4 55 27 (1) 1 (2) 40 18 Dec-11 (9) 15 8 13.6 14.9 13.0 12.1 95 95 4.8 20.3 3.0 0.9 11.5 29 Everlight 2393 TT N TWD 52.90 43.00 (19) 744 10.7 (1) 9 15 3 39 (1) 8 10 (13) 30 Dec-11 (59) 88 2 16.8 40.6 21.6 21.1 100 100 4.7 3.7 1.6 1.3 7.8 16
AUO 2409 TT O TWD 14.00 17.00 21 4,522 51.5 2 3 8 13 8 2 2 3 (2) (1) Dec-12 nm 83 na nm 16.5 9.1 na 164 141 0.0 4.5 0.7 0.6 3.2 69 Epistar 2448 TT O TWD 57.80 66.00 14 1,809 17.1 (0) 4 17 (13) 10 (0) 3 11 (28) 1 Dec-12 nm 84 na nm 35.9 19.5 na 152 123 0.0 3.1 1.1 2.3 9.4 (0) MediaTek 2454 TT R TWD 382.0 17,300 91.1 1 4 5 46 18 1 3 (0) 30 9 Dec-12 43 17 9 29.9 20.9 17.9 16.3 99 93 2.4 13.4 2.7 3.5 16.7 (48)
Elan 2458 TT O TWD 76.60 92.00 20 1,101 17.9 (1) 0 1 98 64 (1) (1) (4) 82 55 Dec-12 81 7 6 27.2 15.1 14.1 13.3 119 118 5.6 29.0 4.1 3.0 10.5 (60) Catcher 2474 TT O TWD 159.0 184.0 16 4,006 59.1 (2) 0 9 (11) 10 (2) (1) 3 (26) 1 Dec-12 17 (3) 8 11.0 9.4 9.7 9.0 106 104 3.8 19.5 1.7 2.3 5.5 (24) HTC 2498 TT N TWD 288.5 290.0 1 8,250 146.6 0 2 4 (33) (4) (0) 1 (1) (49) (13) Dec-12 (20) 17 12 14.6 18.4 15.8 14.1 135 96 0.7 15.3 2.6 0.4 8.6 (111)
Largan 3008 TT O TWD 963.0 825.0 (14) 4,335 53.3 (2) 7 36 71 24 (2) 6 31 56 15 Dec-12 21 15 5 23.2 19.2 16.7 15.9 91 94 2.1 26.6 4.7 5.0 12.7 (55) Novatek 3034 TT N TWD 147.5 157.0 6 3,003 15.0 (0) 4 4 69 26 (1) 3 (1) 53 16 Dec-12 32 16 10 20.1 15.2 13.2 11.9 106 106 5.0 23.7 3.5 1.7 11.0 (46) Faraday 3035 TT O TWD 33.25 53.00 59 453 4.8 (0) 3 (1) (10) (13) (0) 2 (6) (26) (22) Dec-11 818 21 14 107.3 11.7 9.6 8.5 110 136 0.6 17.3 1.9 1.3 6.6 (42)
Unimicron 3037 TT N TWD 32.90 33.50 2 1,699 6.3 4 6 11 13 7 4 5 6 (2) (2) Dec-12 19 14 10 14.6 12.4 10.8 9.9 105 100 4.0 8.0 1.0 0.9 4.4 15 TXC 3042 TT O TWD 45.00 56.00 24 468 3.0 1 3 3 6 (6) 1 2 (2) (9) (15) Dec-12 15 25 2 12.1 10.6 8.5 8.3 100 108 6.0 16.0 1.6 1.4 6.7 21 Tripod 3044 TT N TWD 69.40 70.00 1 1,224 7.3 (0) (0) 6 (20) 11 (0) (1) 1 (35) 2 Dec-12 6 13 9 12.4 11.8 10.4 9.6 103 101 3.8 12.4 1.4 0.8 4.6 (7)
G-Tech 3149 TT N TWD 63.90 66.00 3 569 7.6 0 0 (3) (25) (16) 0 (0) (9) (40) (25) Dec-12 17 65 na 25.2 21.6 13.1 na 63 85 1.9 7.5 1.6 1.4 9.7 32 Kinsus 3189 TT O TWD 109.5 111.0 1 1,639 7.9 (0) 0 12 22 20 (1) (1) 7 7 11 Dec-12 20 8 9 17.5 14.6 13.5 12.3 98 93 3.3 12.7 1.8 1.6 5.8 (37) PixArt 3227 TT N TWD 64.40 67.00 4 291 1.8 2 2 (3) (15) (7) 1 1 (9) (31) (16) Dec-11 (37) 51 (13) 17.0 26.9 17.8 20.4 110 156 2.8 5.6 1.5 1.2 6.9 (80)
Wistron 3231 TT N TWD 29.70 33.00 11 2,191 10.5 0 2 4 (24) (1) (0) 1 (1) (39) (10) Dec-12 18 17 10 9.7 8.3 7.1 6.4 106 117 5.9 12.1 1.0 0.1 4.5 21 Silitech 3311 TT N TWD 52.30 58.00 11 324 2.6 1 1 (5) (22) 5 1 0 (10) (37) (4) Dec-12 (10) 13 9 11.3 12.5 11.1 10.1 94 94 5.8 11.4 1.3 0.7 4.9 (42) Innolux 3481 TT O TWD 20.45 23.00 12 6,247 61.9 (0) 5 18 64 31 (0) 4 13 49 22 Dec-12 nm 26 19 nm 13.6 10.8 9.1 94 102 0.0 7.3 0.9 0.7 3.4 76
Young Fast 3622 TT N TWD 57.60 65.00 13 292 3.3 (1) 1 7 (1) (3) (1) 0 2 (16) (12) Dec-12 nm 4 na nm 22.5 21.6 na 94 107 1.9 3.8 0.8 0.5 3.8 (20) TPK 3673 TT O TWD 601.0 710.0 18 6,599 90.6 (1) 2 (3) 93 17 (1) 1 (8) 77 8 Dec-12 31 11 na 14.4 11.0 9.9 na 99 100 2.3 38.7 3.4 1.0 6.6 34 MStar 3697 TT R TWD 263.5 4,710 14.9 1 0 6 50 21 0 (1) 0 35 12 Dec-11 2 16 na 22.4 21.9 18.9 na 142 105 3.4 19.2 4.1 3.0 13.7 (80)
Lextar 3698 TT O TWD 32.70 36.80 13 574 6.7 0 3 5 (3) 38 0 2 (1) (18) 29 Dec-12 247 (7) na 47.5 13.7 14.7 na 104 114 1.4 12.1 1.4 1.0 5.1 (16) WPG 3702 TT N TWD 36.35 39.00 7 2,020 7.2 1 1 4 (0) (4) 1 0 (1) (16) (13) Dec-12 12 12 14 13.4 11.9 10.7 9.4 97 97 6.6 12.8 1.5 0.3 15.3 116 Pegatron 4938 TT O TWD 53.10 57.00 7 4,081 16.6 0 3 21 25 41 0 2 15 9 32 Dec-12 65 22 7 19.6 11.9 9.8 9.1 98 99 4.2 10.1 1.2 0.1 8.0 (7)
Vanguard 5347 TT N TWD 33.90 34.00 0 1,858 3.2 (2) 1 6 139 68 (2) (0) 1 123 59 Dec-12 90 (9) 10 23.0 12.1 13.3 12.0 110 94 2.9 19.3 2.2 1.9 5.5 (63) Coretronic 5371 TT O TWD 25.30 28.00 11 615 1.7 (0) 3 14 (2) 12 (0) 3 9 (17) 3 Dec-12 105 13 9 20.6 10.0 8.9 8.1 127 131 3.4 9.1 0.9 0.2 3.1 (23) Chipbond 6147 TT N TWD 81.20 68.00 (16) 1,625 4.4 0 3 19 107 42 0 2 14 91 33 Dec-12 29 12 17 18.9 14.7 13.1 11.2 99 95 4.5 18.1 2.5 2.5 7.8 (3)
Radiant 6176 TT N TWD 117.0 123.0 5 1,773 15.9 (2) 0 1 (8) (2) (2) (1) (5) (23) (11) Dec-12 3 4 na 9.7 9.5 9.1 na 101 98 7.0 25.9 2.4 0.5 4.9 (66) PTI 6239 TT N TWD 57.10 49.00 (14) 1,493 14.4 1 4 17 (1) 22 0 3 12 (16) 13 Dec-12 (14) 18 9 12.3 14.3 12.1 11.1 82 93 5.4 8.4 1.2 1.1 2.9 (3) TSMT 6278 TT N TWD 50.50 55.00 9 436 4.5 1 2 5 (10) 15 0 1 (0) (25) 5 Dec-12 27 5 9 12.6 10.0 9.5 8.6 101 98 3.6 13.0 1.3 0.2 2.8 (25)
TOPOINT 8021 TT O TWD 18.65 22.40 20 98 0.6 0 3 6 12 10 (0) 2 1 (4) 1 Dec-12 4 8 8 10.7 10.2 9.5 8.8 95 97 3.5 7.2 0.7 1.3 3.9 10 NYPCB 8046 TT N TWD 34.90 39.00 12 757 1.8 0 (1) 5 (28) (3) 0 (2) (0) (44) (12) Dec-12 nm 96 34 nm 32.9 16.8 12.5 nm 95 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.5 5.1 (18) E Ink 8069 TT U TWD 21.70 16.00 (26) 787 4.1 4 7 (0) (28) (2) 3 6 (6) (44) (11) Dec-12 nm 234 na nm 72.1 21.6 na 133 194 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.2 35.6 25
Sector* 3 286,200 0 1 6 25 12 (0) (0) 0 10 3 Dec-12 46 15 10 20.9 14.3 12.4 11.4 100 100 2.9 14.1 1.9 0.7 6.6 (5)
Telecommunication Services
Chate Benchavitvilai - 852 2101 7040
CHT 2412 TT U TWD 98.20 82.00 (16) 25,566 22.7 0 1 5 7 4 (0) 0 (1) (8) (5) Dec-12 (2) 5 3 19.0 19.4 18.5 18.0 100 103 5.3 10.7 2.1 3.2 9.0 (11) TWM 3045 TT N TWD 113.5 107.5 (5) 13,030 17.5 (0) (3) 9 17 6 (1) (4) 4 2 (3) Dec-12 7 6 4 20.8 19.4 18.3 17.6 99 97 5.2 19.5 4.8 3.7 13.5 45
FET 4904 TT N TWD 74.30 75.00 1 8,125 16.9 (0) (1) 3 10 0 (0) (2) (2) (6) (9) Dec-12 12 13 6 22.8 20.3 17.9 16.9 98 100 5.2 16.4 3.3 2.7 9.2 (3) Sector* (10) 46,721 (0) (1) 6 11 4 (0) (1) 0 (5) (5) Dec-12 3 7 4 20.1 19.6 18.3 17.7 100 101 5.2 12.9 2.7 3.2 10.0 (4)
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Taiwan: Valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Transportation Timothy Ross - 65 6212 3337
EMC 2603 TT U TWD 17.10 15.50 (9) 1,994 4.7 1 (1) (3) 9 (1) 1 (2) (8) (6) (11) Dec-12 nm 100 31 nm 17.7 8.9 6.8 86 112 1.5 5.5 0.9 0.6 10.4 55 CAL 2610 TT U TWD 11.90 10.00 (16) 2,077 4.5 4 3 5 4 (1) 4 3 (0) (12) (10) Dec-12 nm 53 40 nm 14.0 9.1 6.5 158 119 0.5 8.2 1.1 1.4 10.7 148 WHL 2615 TT O TWD 17.10 17.25 1 1,273 0.6 2 1 5 24 2 2 (0) (1) 9 (7) Dec-12 52 27 33 21.1 13.9 11.0 8.3 125 96 1.4 8.2 1.1 0.5 3.8 (14)
EVA 2618 TT O TWD 17.50 24.00 37 1,914 5.7 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 (3) (13) (6) Dec-12 879 10 9 150.6 15.4 14.0 12.8 101 93 0.0 9.7 1.4 1.3 10.7 91 Sector* 3 7,258 3 1 2 9 1 3 0 (3) (7) (9) Dec-12 nm 48 30 786.8 15.2 10.3 7.9 113 107 0.8 7.6 1.1 1.0 9.4 78
Country Average* TWSE 8,399 8,391 (0) 562,746 0 1 5 15 9 Dec-12 41 15 9 22.1 15.7 13.6 12.6 101 103 2.7 12.3 1.9 0.9 8.6 9
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
Thailand: Valuation summary
Bberg
Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/
Net Debt/
daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Banks Dan Fineman / Thaniya Kevalee - 66 2 614 6218 / 66 2 614 6219
BAY BAY TB O THB 34.50 41.00 19 7,042 17.5 0 (4) 0 25 6 (0) (5) (6) (20) (12) Dec-12 27 18 12 14.3 11.3 9.6 8.6 102 101 3.2 15.5 1.7 na na na BBL BBL/F TB O THB 223.0 253.0 13 14,303 12.1 0 (1) (3) 23 7 (0) (2) (9) (22) (12) Dec-12 3 11 8 12.9 12.5 11.3 10.4 91 89 3.3 11.9 1.4 na na na KBANK KBANK/F TB O THB 225.0 265.0 18 18,094 13.4 0 0 7 56 16 (0) (1) 2 10 (2) Dec-12 21 25 15 15.3 12.6 10.1 8.8 101 108 2.4 21.3 2.5 na na na
KTB KTB TB O THB 23.60 30.50 29 11,083 34.0 0 (4) (7) 65 20 (0) (5) (13) 20 2 Dec-12 17 39 13 12.2 10.4 7.5 6.6 96 116 4.0 16.7 1.7 na na na SCB SCB TB O THB 197.5 217.0 10 22,523 37.0 0 1 8 44 9 (0) (0) 2 (2) (9) Dec-12 25 21 13 16.7 13.4 11.1 9.8 102 108 3.3 21.8 2.8 na na na TCAP TCAP TB N THB 48.50 51.00 5 2,082 16.3 0 (1) 8 80 28 (0) (2) 2 34 10 Dec-12 72 (34) 17 11.3 6.6 9.9 8.5 135 93 3.2 20.5 1.3 na na na
TISCO TISCO TB N THB 51.25 59.00 15 1,379 3.8 0 (5) (12) 46 (1) (0) (6) (18) 1 (20) Dec-12 19 (0) 11 10.1 8.5 8.5 7.6 105 94 4.9 22.6 1.8 na na na TMB TMB TB N THB 2.68 2.85 6 3,927 22.6 0 (4) (4) 76 44 (0) (5) (9) 31 26 Dec-12 341 33 18 72.7 16.5 12.4 10.5 101 114 2.4 12.7 2.0 na na na Sector* 16 80,434 0 (1) 2 47 14 (0) (2) (4) 1 (5) Dec-12 23 20 13 14.8 12.1 10.1 8.9 100 105 3.2 17.3 2.0 na na na
Building Materials & Construction
Chai Techakumpuch / Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 66 2 614 6211 / 66 2 614 6210
Italian-Thai Dev ITD TB U THB 9.00 2.50 (72) 1,268 25.3 0 11 14 162 114 (0) 10 8 116 96 Dec-12 (697) nm nm 143.5 nm nm nm nm nm 0.0 (19.8) 5.3 1.3 23.2 389 SCC SCC TB U THB 480.0 404.0 (16) 19,355 20.6 0 (2) (1) 45 9 (0) (3) (7) 0 (9) Dec-12 31 14 11 24.4 18.6 16.3 14.8 93 89 2.6 20.4 3.6 1.7 13.8 83 SCCC SCCC TB U THB 476.0 380.0 (20) 3,679 2.2 0 (2) (3) 61 13 (0) (3) (8) 16 (5) Dec-12 23 5 (3) 30.1 24.4 23.2 24.0 99 90 3.4 24.7 5.9 3.8 16.9 22
Sino-Thai Engr STEC TB U THB 26.75 16.33 (39) 1,371 9.1 0 (2) (9) 171 26 (0) (3) (15) 125 8 Dec-12 11 28 6 35.0 31.5 24.6 23.3 86 96 2.0 20.1 6.1 1.3 18.8 (127) Sector* (20) 25,673 0 (1) (1) 60 16 (0) (2) (7) 15 (2) Dec-12 23 14 9 26.7 21.8 19.1 17.5 88 84 2.5 19.1 4.0 1.8 14.7 82
Chemicals Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 66 2 614 6210
PTTGC PTTGC TB O THB 76.50 90.00 18 11,583 33.3 0 2 13 27 9 (0) 1 7 (18) (9) Dec-12 8 4 (6) 10.1 9.4 9.0 9.6 103 102 4.6 16.8 1.5 0.7 6.5 24
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 66 2 614 6210
Indorama Ventures IVL TB N THB 23.40 24.00 3 3,785 10.8 0 3 0 (18) (7) (0) 2 (6) (63) (26) Dec-12 31 38 25 24.4 18.6 13.5 10.8 86 93 1.6 9.8 1.8 0.8 11.2 117
Consumer Staples Karim Salamatian / Chai Techakumpuch - 852 2101 7996 / 66 2 614 6211
C.P. All CPALL TB U THB 44.00 35.00 (20) 13,281 57.5 0 2 1 27 (4) (0) 1 (4) (19) (23) Dec-12 31 19 30 35.9 27.5 23.1 17.8 108 106 2.0 47.0 11.5 1.6 16.9 (130)
CPF CPF TB O THB 31.00 38.00 23 8,066 27.8 0 1 3 (17) (8) (0) (0) (2) (63) (26) Dec-12 (10) 30 21 12.8 14.1 10.9 8.9 115 113 4.8 15.4 2.1 0.9 16.5 116 Thai Union TUF TB O THB 64.75 75.00 16 2,497 8.0 0 1 13 (10) (10) (0) 0 7 (55) (28) Dec-12 (4) 40 18 15.4 16.0 11.4 9.6 86 97 3.1 12.8 1.8 0.9 12.3 84 Sector* (2) 23,844 0 2 3 8 (6) (0) 1 (2) (38) (24) Dec-12 4 27 24 20.5 19.7 15.5 12.5 107 107 3.1 20.3 3.7 1.1 16.0 68
Energy Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 66 2 614 6210
PTT PTT TB N THB 345.0 362.0 5 33,112 51.5 0 2 11 8 4 (0) 1 5 (37) (14) Dec-12 8 2 5 9.4 8.7 8.6 8.2 97 93 3.7 17.5 1.4 0.4 5.1 36
PTTEP PTTEP TB N THB 163.0 171.0 5 21,744 32.3 0 0 13 1 (1) (0) (1) 8 (45) (19) Dec-12 (7) 5 (12) 9.6 10.3 9.8 11.2 98 99 3.6 18.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 9 TOP TOP TB N THB 65.25 66.00 1 4,473 15.7 0 (1) 1 14 (3) (0) (2) (5) (31) (22) Dec-12 17 (14) (7) 10.8 9.2 10.7 11.6 104 91 4.8 15.9 1.4 0.3 5.8 6 Sector* 5 59,329 0 1 11 6 2 (0) 0 5 (39) (17) Dec-12 3 2 (2) 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.3 98 95 3.7 17.6 1.5 0.6 4.7 26
Healthcare Thaniya Kevalee - 66 2 614 6219
Bangkok Dusit BGH TB O THB 173.0 172.0 (1) 8,984 15.7 0 (0) 6 95 52 (0) (1) 1 50 34 Dec-12 29 23 21 46.0 35.7 29.0 23.9 101 104 1.4 19.0 6.4 5.4 23.4 33
Bumrungrad Hosp BH TB N THB 86.25 90.00 4 2,112 3.2 0 (1) 3 37 17 (0) (2) (2) (8) (2) Dec-12 22 14 16 32.5 26.5 23.2 20.0 102 100 2.1 26.4 6.6 4.1 16.7 (58) Sector* 0 11,096 0 (0) 6 84 46 (0) (1) 0 39 27 Dec-12 27 21 20 42.6 33.5 27.7 23.0 101 103 1.5 20.4 6.4 5.1 21.8 16
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Thaniya Kevalee - 66 2 614 6219
Centel CENTEL TB O THB 37.25 43.00 15 1,690 2.8 0 (1) (2) 205 43 (0) (2) (8) 160 25 Dec-12 39 34 22 44.6 32.0 23.8 19.5 100 106 1.2 15.8 4.8 3.4 14.4 88
MINT MINT TB O THB 27.00 29.00 7 3,607 7.3 0 9 13 106 38 (0) 8 7 61 20 Dec-12 17 21 13 30.7 26.2 21.7 19.2 101 104 1.8 20.2 4.7 3.5 18.7 80 Sector* 10 5,297 0 6 8 138 40 (0) 5 2 92 21 Dec-12 22 25 16 34.1 27.8 22.3 19.3 100 105 1.6 18.7 4.7 3.5 17.1 83
Insurance Arjan van Veen - 852 2101 7508
Bangkok Life BLA TB U THB 70.50 50.00 (29) 2,868 3.6 0 (2) (0) 63 13 (0) (3) (6) 18 (5) Dec-12 43 8 9 25.8 18.0 16.6 15.3 99 92 1.4 21.1 3.4 na na na
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Thailand: Valuation summary (continued) Bberg Price Market Avg Absolute Performance Relative Performance FYE EPS growth P/E CS / Dvd ROE P/BV EV/ EV/ Net Debt/ daily con. EPS Yld Sales EBITDA Equity
Stock Ticker View Local Target Upside cap t/o (%) (%) Actual (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%)
22 May 2013 (%) (USDm) 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD 1d 1w 1m 12m YTD T T+1 T+2 T+3 T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+1 T+2 T+1
Media Karim Salamatian / Thaniya Kevalee - 852 2101 7996 / 66 2 614 6219
BEC BEC TB U THB 71.25 59.00 (17) 4,788 5.5 0 0 10 43 0 (0) (1) 4 (3) (18) Dec-12 16 1 4 29.8 25.7 25.5 24.4 96 85 3.9 68.8 17.7 8.5 15.3 (53) Major Cineplex MAJOR TB N THB 24.00 27.00 13 716 3.4 0 (0) 10 29 26 (0) (1) 5 (16) 8 Dec-12 73 8 8 31.1 18.0 16.6 15.3 115 108 5.1 18.6 3.2 2.9 10.8 33 MCOT MCOT TB N THB 49.75 32.80 (34) 1,149 1.9 0 1 7 78 6 (0) (0) 1 32 (12) Dec-10 27 (6) 4 24.0 19.0 20.3 19.6 133 96 4.7 23.3 4.4 4.9 9.9 (48)
Sector* (17) 6,653 0 0 9 47 4 (0) (1) 4 2 (14) Dec-12 19 0 5 27.7 23.3 23.2 22.6 97 85 4.1 37.4 8.6 6.3 13.7 (21)
Metals & Mining Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee - 66 2 614 6210
Banpu BANPU TB N THB 328.0 350.0 7 2,995 13.4 0 (0) (7) (29) (20) (0) (1) (12) (74) (39) Dec-12 (21) 16 19 9.6 12.2 10.5 8.8 97 94 9.0 9.4 1.2 1.6 8.3 97
Real Estate Chai Techakumpuch - 66 2 614 6211
Asian Property AP TB O THB 8.95 12.50 40 857 6.6 0 1 1 40 5 (0) 0 (5) (6) (13) Dec-12 30 41 (0) 11.3 8.7 6.2 6.2 110 133 4.8 21.4 1.7 1.7 9.4 76 Central Pattana CPN TB O THB 54.00 60.00 11 7,907 9.6 0 4 13 143 32 (0) 3 7 97 14 Dec-12 20 30 21 48.8 40.7 31.2 25.7 103 104 1.9 20.0 7.1 13.1 26.4 62
Land and Houses LH TB O THB 13.10 13.10 0 4,413 12.9 0 (3) 3 88 34 (0) (4) (2) 43 16 Dec-12 17 10 14 23.8 20.2 18.4 16.1 106 103 4.0 19.9 3.8 5.6 24.1 82 L.P.N. LPN TB O THB 26.25 28.00 7 1,302 3.6 0 5 15 62 47 (0) 4 10 17 28 Dec-12 39 15 15 17.5 12.5 10.9 9.5 111 110 4.0 33.2 3.8 2.4 10.4 16 Preuksa PS TB U THB 29.50 24.50 (17) 2,202 5.3 0 1 1 120 40 (0) (0) (5) 75 22 Dec-12 38 (11) (5) 16.8 12.2 13.7 14.5 102 85 2.4 24.1 2.7 2.7 12.8 121
Quality Houses QH TB N THB 4.40 3.95 (10) 1,358 20.5 0 2 3 177 106 (0) 1 (3) 131 87 Dec-12 42 24 2 25.1 17.7 14.2 14.0 92 99 2.5 14.2 2.4 3.6 28.9 115 Supalai SPALI TB O THB 22.10 25.00 13 1,275 4.2 0 2 9 42 25 (0) 1 3 (4) 7 Dec-12 28 18 36 13.8 10.8 9.2 6.8 107 101 3.5 26.1 2.6 2.8 8.8 23 Sector* 5 19,313 0 2 8 113 38 (0) 1 2 68 20 Dec-12 28 16 13 24.9 19.5 16.8 14.9 105 103 2.8 21.6 3.9 4.5 18.0 77
Retailing Karim Salamatian - 852 2101 7996
Siam Global House GLOBAL TB N THB 24.90 14.00 (44) 2,100 3.4 0 (1) 19 193 63 (0) (2) 13 148 45 Dec-11 4 62 64 73.6 70.5 43.4 26.4 122 116 0.4 9.2 4.7 5.8 58.4 14
HomePro HMPRO TB U THB 16.20 9.50 (41) 4,473 8.7 0 7 5 86 50 (0) 6 (1) 40 32 Dec-12 (1) 12 26 44.0 44.5 39.6 31.4 88 83 1.0 28.3 11.8 3.3 24.9 72 Siam Makro MAKRO TB N THB 758.0 787.0 4 6,113 10.5 0 1 11 123 70 (0) (0) 6 77 52 Dec-12 14 11 16 51.2 44.8 40.4 34.8 95 88 1.5 35.7 15.1 1.4 29.0 22 Robinson Dept ROBINS TB N THB 81.25 77.00 (5) 3,032 4.0 0 2 9 48 22 (0) 1 3 2 4 Dec-11 42 32 31 62.1 43.7 33.3 25.4 100 107 0.9 21.9 9.0 4.2 25.9 0
Sector* (17) 15,719 0 2 10 107 54 (0) 1 4 62 36 Dec-12 18 23 20 49.1 41.8 33.9 33.3 98 96 1.2 25.5 9.9 2.2 26.0 30
Telecommunication Services
Colin McCallum - 852 2101 6514
AIS ADVANC TB O THB 293.0 295.0 1 29,271 49.4 0 3 14 65 40 (0) 2 8 20 22 Dec-12 20 21 18 25.0 20.9 17.3 14.7 108 112 4.8 96.2 20.1 6.2 12.9 29 DTAC DTAC TB O THB 122.0 134.0 10 9,707 19.3 0 0 17 67 38 (0) (1) 11 21 20 Dec-12 12 22 19 25.6 22.8 18.6 15.6 104 104 4.4 36.3 8.3 3.8 10.3 91
SHIN INTUCH TB O THB 96.75 105.0 9 10,424 52.3 0 10 15 81 40 (0) 9 9 35 22 Dec-12 23 26 20 25.8 20.9 16.7 13.9 94 101 4.9 99.8 20.1 20.3 20.7 (22) True Corp TRUE TB U THB 10.20 2.86 (72) 4,974 40.3 0 9 23 163 87 (0) 8 17 117 69 Dec-12 nm nm nm nm nm nm 133.3 192 172 0.0 (17.0) 13.1 2.9 11.5 957 Sector* (3) 54,377 0 4 15 77 44 (0) 3 10 32 26 Dec-12 32 24 22 31.9 24.1 19.5 16.0 107 110 4.3 63.7 15.4 5.3 12.9 144
Transportation Annuar Aziz / Chai Techakumpuch / Thaniya Kevalee - 60 3 2723 2084 / 66 2 614 6211 / 66 2 614 6219
AAV AAV TB R THB 6.35 1,035 10.1 0 (9) (11) na 31 (0) (10) (17) na 13 Dec-11 944 (82) 24 36.2 3.5 19.2 15.5 705 103 0.0 265.7 3.4 1.3 10.0 (23)
AOT AOT TB O THB 173.5 175.0 1 8,329 12.0 0 12 27 203 78 (0) 11 21 158 60 Sep-12 49 23 16 37.4 25.0 20.3 17.4 99 108 1.4 12.3 3.0 7.3 13.9 21 THAI THAI TB N THB 32.00 22.50 (30) 2,347 12.0 0 (2) 8 48 45 (0) (3) 2 3 27 Dec-11 nm 35 6 nm 13.6 10.1 9.5 128 118 1.8 7.8 1.0 1.0 6.3 197 Sector* (6) 11,710 0 7 19 169 67 (0) 6 14 124 49 Dec-12 (11) 16 na 16.2 18.3 15.8 na 107 103 1.7 11.6 2.0 1.7 7.9 87
Country Average* SET 1,646 1,678 2 334,676 0 1 6 45 18 Dec-12 14 14 10 17.0 15.0 13.2 11.8 100 100 3.2 18.9 2.7 1.3 9.2 49
* Country/ sector aggregates are for the coverage above
Source: Company data, Thomson Financial IBES, Credit Suisse estimates
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Appendix I: Research published in the past week Asia – Regional Analysts’ name Date
Jump-Start Jahanzeb Naseer 9 May
Asia Tech Distribution Sector – Initiate coverage: Eyes on China's enterprise Thompson Wu 9 May
Asia-Pacific Transport Sector – Monthly movements: Key transportation trends in Asia-Pacific Timothy Ross 13 May
Asia Insurance Weekly – Downgrading SUN to underperform Arjan van Veen 15 May
Asian Exchange Watch – Mixed April: Japan strong, Greater China weak Arjan van Veen 16 May
Asia Equity Strategy – Reporting Season Scorecard: Still associated with EPS upgrades Sakthi Siva 16 May
Asia Technology Strategy – Yen and you: What JPY move means for the tech sector Manish Nigam 20 May
Jardine Matheson / Jardine Strategic – Near-term positives priced in Gerald Wong 20 May
Asia Insurance Weekly – Downgrading Fubon / Japan results wrap Arjan van Veen 22 May
Asia Pacific Financials Strategy – Indonesia: A breather in the near term? Sanjay Jain 23 May
China Analysts’ name Date
AAC Technologies Holdings Inc – Product migration sustaining acceleration Yan Taw Boon 9 May
Spreadtrum Communication – Finding a sweet spot in the entry tier Randy Abrams 9 May
China Insurance Sector – Two tiers' growth divergence continues Arjan van Veen 15 May
China Basic Materials Monthly – May 2013: So little, so short Trina Chen 15 May
Chinese Whispers: Monthly Survey Series on China Vincent Chan 15 May
China Banks Sector – CS proxy-NPL ratio approaching GFC levels Sanjay Jain 16 May
Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited – Misleading 1Q13 results; lacks new blockbuster drugs to maintain high growth
Iris Wang 20 May
China Oil Demand Monthly – April 2013: Demand holding up strongly David Hewitt 22 May
Ping An (H) – A Matter of Trust Arjan van Veen 22 May
Hong Kong Analysts’ name Date
Link REIT – Expecting a deceleration in DPU growth Joyce Kwock 9 May
Champion Real Estate Investment Trust – Four reasons for discount to narrow Joyce Kwock 9 May
Yue Yuen Industrial Holding – Next shoe has dropped Eva Wang 20 May
India Analysts’ name Date
India Midcap Sector – Great Eastern Shipping visit note: Getting back on the radar? Anantha Narayan 10 May
India Financial Sector – PSU banks no longer proxy to bond yields Ashish Gupta 13 May
India Mortgage Sector – Market position of HFCs should remain strong Sunil Tirumalai 20 May
Indonesia Analysts’ name Date
PT Adaro Energy Tbk – Improving efficiency Ami Tantri 14 May
AKR Corporindo – Great project, but it's in the price Ami Tantri 16 May
Indonesia Telecoms Sector – Predatory pricing II: This time it's data Colin McCallum 20 May
Malaysia Analysts’ name Date
CIMB Group Holdings Bhd – 1Q13 results in line, expect better 2H Danny Goh 20 May
Pakistan Analysts’ name Date
Pakistan Market Strategy – Election 2013: Market to rally on a comprehensive Nawaz victory Farhan Rizvi 13 May
Singapore Analysts’ name Date
Singapore Telecom – Associates to drive turnaround + yield tailwind Chate Benchavitvilai 16 May
Taiwan Analysts’ name Date
Teco – Motors drive more upside Jerry Su 9 May
Chinatrust Financial Holding – Strong 1Q13 results Chung Hsu 13 May
Fubon Financial Holding – Limited catalyst in sight Chung Hsu 20 May
Thailand Analysts’ name Date
Thailand Banks Sector – The right kind of growth Dan Fineman 14 May
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Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
The analysts identified in this report each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Ame rican and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark.
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Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
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Global Ratings Distribution
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 42% (53% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 39% (47% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 16% (39% banking clients)
Restricted 3%
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