Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia* - LPEM

Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia*

Perekonomian Dunia

P e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a s e d a n g d a l a m p r o s e s s u a t u k e a d a a n p e m u l i h a n y a n g m a n t a p . S e m e n t a r a i t u s i k a p o p t i m i s m e m e n y e b a r k e s e l u r u b n e g a r a . D i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s e n d i r i , s e p e r t i y a n g a k a n d i b a h a s s e l a n j u t n y a , p e r e k o n o m i a n b e r t a m b a b k u a t m e l e b i b i p e r k i r a a n b a n y a k p a r a a h l i . D i K a n a d a d a n d a r a t a n E r o p a t a n d a - t a n d a p e m u l i h a n e k o n o m i t i d a k t e r b a n t a b l a g i . K a n a d a y a n g m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i sebesa r 3 , 0 % p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 3 , u n t u k t a h u n i n i d i h a r a p k a n m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 4 , 1 % . D e m i k i a n p u l a d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i d i E r o p a . J e r m a n B a r a t d i h a r a p k a n b e r k e m b a n g d a r i 1 , 3 % p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 3 m e n j a d i 2 , 4 % t a h u n i n i . S e d a n g k a n P e r a n c i s y a n g h a n y a b e r t u m b u b d e n g a n 0 , 2 % p a d a t a h u n y a n g l a l u , d a l a m t a h u n i n i d i h a r a p k a n b a n g k i t m e n j a d i 1 , 0%.

D e m i k i a n j u g a h a l n y a d e n g a n I t a l i a y a n g m e n g a l a m i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i s ebesa r 1 , 7 % p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 3 , d i h a r a p k a n d a p a t m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t 2 , 0 % p a d a t a h u n i n i . H a n y a I n g g r i s y a n g t a m p a k n y a a g a k t e r t a t i b - t a t i b , seh i n g g a m e n g a l a m i s e d i k i t p e n u r u n a n d a l a m t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a r i 2 , 5 % p a d a t a h u n l a l u , m e n j a d i h a n y a s e k i t a r 2 , 3 % u n t u k t a h u n 1 9 8 4 i n i . D u a n e g a r a l a i n d a l a m k e l o m p o k t u j u b n e g a r a i n d u s t r i t e r k e m u k a y a n g b a r u -b a r u i n i m e n g a d a k a n p e r t e m u a n p u n c a k n y a d i L o n d o n , - A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a n J e p a n g —, a k a n d i b a h a s s e c a r a k h u s u s d a l a m T i n j a u a n i n i . H a l i n i d i s e -

* ) T i n j a u a n i n i d i s u s u n o l e h P r i j o n o T j i p t o h e r i j a n t o , B a m b a n g T r i j o s o d a n R u s m a n R o c b i m a n E l C a p i t . ,

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E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4 ' I 1 1 9

b a b k a n k e d u a n e g a r a t e r s e b u t m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u b e k o n o m i y a n g s e c a r a l a n g s u n g p e r l u d i p e r b i t u n g k a n t e r s e n d i r i d a l a m b u b u n g a n n y a d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a .

B e r d a s a r k a n p e n g a m a t a n b e b e r a p a a b b e k o n o m i d i p e r o l e b g a m b a r a n b a b w a m e n j e l a n g b e b e r a p a t a b u n t e r a k b i r i n i e k o n o r n i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t t e l a b m u l a i b e r u b a b d a r i " m a s s - e c o n o m y " m e n g a r a b k e a r a b " i n f o r m a t i v e - e c o n o m y " d i m a n a p e r u b a b a n s t r u k t u r t e r s e b u t t e l a b m u l a i s a n g a t t e r a s a m e n j e l a n g a k b i r r e s e s i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . D e n g a n a d a n y a p e r u b a b a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t t e l a b m u l a i s a n g a t t e r a s a m e n j e l a n g a k b i r r e s e s i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . D e n g a n a d a n y a p e r u b a b a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i t e r s e b u t , r e c o v e r y t e l a b b e r j a l a n l e b i b c e p a t d a r i d u g a a n s e m u l a d a n d i p e r k i r a k a n d a l a m t a b u n y a n g a k a n d a t i n g a k a n m e n g a r a b k e a r a b e k s p a n s i e k o n o m i .

S e b a g a i s u a t u g a m b a r a n k a s a r d a p a t d i k e m u k a k a n b a b w a d i d a l a m s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i y a n g b e r s i f a t m a s s - e c o n o m y p r o d u k s i d i l a k u k a n s e c a r a m a s a l t a n p a m e m p e r b a t i k a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n s e c a r a m e n d e t a i l . D e n g a n k a t a l a i n , a p a b i l a d i t i n j a u d a r i s e g i p e m a s a r a n n y a d a p a t d i k e m u k a k a n b a b w a a k t i v i t a s p e m a s a r a n d i l a k u k a n s e g i a t - g i a t n y a u n t u k m e n j u a l b a s i l p r o d u k s i -m a s s a y a n g t e l a b a d a a t a u y a n g s e d a n g d i l a k u k a n , y a i t u a n t a r a l a i n d e n g a n j a l a n m e n g a d a k a n a d v e r t e n s i s e c a r a b e s a r - b e s a r a n s e b i n g g a k o n s u m e n t e r p e -n g a r u b u n t u k m e m b e l i n y a t a n p a m e m p e r b a t i k a n k u a l i t a s , j a n g k a w a k t u p e m a k a i a n , e f i s i e n s i n y a , d a n k e b e m a t a n e n e r s i y a n g t e r p a k a i .

M a s s - e c o n o m y m e r u p a k a n s u a t u s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i y a n g t e l a b d i m u l a i s e j a k r e v o l u s i i n d u s t r i 1 8 0 0 - a n d a n p e n g a r u b n y a m a s i b t e t a p t e r a s a s a m p a i saa t i n i . S e j a k a w a l r e v o l u s i i n d u s t r i s a m p a i t a b u n 1 9 7 3 / 8 4 b a r g a m i n y a k s e b a g a i s u m b e r e n e r s i d a n t e n a g a l i s t r i k u n t u k s e k t o r i n d u s t r i m a s i b d i a n g g a p m u r a b , s e b i n g g a d e n g a n m u r a b n y a b a r g a e n e r s i t e r s e b u t t e l a b m e -m u n g k i n k a n p r o d u k s i b a r a n g - b a r a n g d i l a k u k a n s e c a r a m a s s a l .

W a l a u p u n s e j a k a w a l r e v o l u s i i n d u s t r i d e n g a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i y a n g b e r s i f a t m a s s - e c o n o m y t e l a b m e n g b a s i l k a n i n o v a s i t e k n o l o g i , s p e s i a l i s a s i d a n p e m b a g i a n t e n a g a k e r j a y a n g e f f e k t i f , a k a n t e t a p i d i l a i n p i b a k k u a l i t a s , j a n g k a w a k t u p e m a k a i a n d a n e f f i s i e n s i b a r a n g t e l a b s e m a k i n m e n u r u n . T e r u t a m a s e t e l a b p e r t e n g a b a n t a b u n 1 9 7 0 - a n d i m a n a b a r g a m i n y a k p a d a s aa t i t u t e l a b m e l o n j a k d e n g a n s a n g a t t i n g g i s e b i n g g a m e n i n g k a t k a n o n g k o s p r o d u k s i .

M e n u r u n n y a k u a l i t a s d a n j a n g k a w a k t u p e m a k a i a n b a r a n g p r o d u k s i t e r p a k s a d i l a k u k a n o l e b p a r a p e n g u s a b a m e n g i n g a t b a b w a p a d a s aa t i t u m e r e k a m a s i b b e l u m b i s a m e l e p a s k a n d a r i k e b i a s a a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n s e l a m a i n i . S e l a i n i t u d e n g a n m e n u r u r m y a k u a l i t a s d a n j a n g k a w a k t u p e m a k a i a n d i h a r a p k a n b a b w a t u r n - o v e r p e n j u a l a n b a r a n g n y a a k a n s e m a k i n c e p a t d a n d i h a r a p k a n

a k a n d a p a t m e n u t u p i k e n a i k a n o n g k o s p r o d u k s i .

1 2 0 E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4

A k a n t e t a p i h a l i n i t i d a k d a p a t b e r t a h a n l a m a , t e r u t a m a s e t e l a b b a r g a m i n y a k m e n i n g k a t s a n g a t t a j a m d a n e k o n o m i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m e m a s u k i r e s e s i y a n g d i m u l a i p a d a p e r t e n g a b a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . S e b a g a i a k i b a t n y a p e r u s a -b a a n y a n g m a s i b m e m p e r t a b a n k a n p r o d u k s i m a s s a , s e l a m a r e s e s i y a n g l a l u b a n y a k y a n g g u l u n g t i k a r d a n d i t u t u p . H a l t e r s e b u t d i s e b a b k a n k o n s u m e n p a d a s aa t i n i t e l a b s e m a k i n k r i t i s t e r h a d a p b a r a n g y a n g a k a n d i b e l i n y a d i s a m p i n g p a d a s aa t r e s e s i r a t a - r a t a p e n d a p a t a n p e n d u d u k A m e r i k a S e r i k a t t e l a b m e n u r u n . S e l a i n b a l i t u b a r a n g i m p o r p a d a u m u m n y a m e m p u n y a i k u a U t a s y a n g s e m a k i n t i n g g i , t e r u t a m a b a s i l p r o d u k s i d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a d i A s i a , k h u s u s n y a J e p a n g .

D e n g a n s e m a k i n k r i t i s n y a s i k a p k o n s u m e n d a l a m m e m b e l i b a r a n g k e -b u t u b a n n y a , m a k a p a d a u m u m n y a p a r a p r o d u s e n m u l a i b e r b a t i - b a t i d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p r o d u k s i n y a . P a d a u m u m n y a saa t i n i p r o d u k s i d i l a k u k a n a p a b i l a p r o d u s e n t e l a b m e n g e t a b u i d e n g a n j e l a s k e i n g i n a n k o n s u m e n a t a u d e n g a n k a t a l a i n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n m e r u p a k a n d a s a r d a r i j e n i s p r o d u k s i y a n g a k a n d i l a k u k a n . P r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n y a n g t e p a t d a p a t d i k e t a b u i a p a b i l a p r o d u s e n d a p a t m e m p e r o i e h i n f o r m a s i k e a d a a n p a s a r d e n g a n c e p a t d a n t e p a t , s e b i n g g a p e r u b a b a n p r o d u k s i d a p a t d i l a k u k a n s e s u a i d e n g a n a d a n y a p e r u b a b a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n .

P e r u b a b a n p o l a p r o d u k s i y a n g l e b i b m e n i t i k b e r a t k a n p a d a a d a n y a p e r u b a b a n p r e f e r e n s i k o n s u m e n s e c a r a t i d a k l a n g s u n g t e l a b m e r u b a b s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i D i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a r i "mass-economy" m e n j a d i "informative-economy. "

K a r a k t e r i s t i k y a n g m e n o n j o l d a l a m i n f o r m a t i v e - e c o n o m y d i t a n d a i d e n g a n j u m l a h p r o d u k s i y a n g l e b i b r e n d a b b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p r o d u k s i - m a s s a l . A k a n t e t a p i , b a s i l p r o d u k s i d a l a m i n f o r m a t i v e - e c o n o m y l e b i b b a n y a k m e n g a n d u n g i n f o r m a s i , s e p e r t i h a l n y a d e s i g n y a n g c o c o k d a n s e s u a i d e n g a n s e t i a p g o l o n g a n k o n s u m e n t e r t e n t u , m e m p u n y a i e f i s i e n s i y a n g t i n g g i , m u d a b d i p e r b a i k i d a n b e m a t e n e r g i . D i s a m p i n g i t u raw-material y a n g d i g u n a k a n l e b i b s e d i k i t d a n j a n g k a p e m a k a i a n n y a l e b i b l a m a .

A k i b a t a d a n y a p e r u b a b a n s t r u k t u r t e r s e b u t m a k a b a n y a k p e r u s a b a a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t , b a l k y a n g b e s a r m a u p u n s e d a n g , p a d a s aa t i n i p o l a p r o d u k s i n y a d i l a k u k a n s e s u a i d e n g a n b a s i l marketing research y a n g d i l a k u k a n n y a . D e n g a n k a t a l a i n , s e s u a t u marketing system y a n g b a l k d a n e f e k t i f m e r u p a k a n k u n c i k e b e r b a s i l a n s u a t u p e r u s a b a a n d a l a m m e l a k u k a n p e n e t r a s i p a s a r d a n m e m p e r l u a s u s a b a n y a .

S e d a n g k a n g a m b a r a n p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r e k o n o m i a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d e w a s a i n i c u k u p m e n g g e m b i r a k a n . D e n g a n s e m a k i n s t a b i l n y a — p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n G N P sebesa r 3 , 4 % m a k a s a m p a i t a b u n 1 9 8 4 p e r t u m b u h a n G N P t e r s e b u t d i p e r -

E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4 1 2 1

k i r a k a n s e k i t a r 5 , 4 % . A k a n t e t a p i , s e b a l i k n y a , a k i b a t d e f i s i t a n g g a r a n b e l a n j a y a n g a k a n s e m a k i n b e s a r m a k a d i p e r k i r a k a n i n f l a s i y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 s ebesa r 3 , 8 % p e r t a b u n a k a n m e n i n g k a t d a n m e n j a d i s e k i t a r 5 , 0 % - 5 , 5 % . K e n a i k a n i n f l a s i t e r s e b u t t i d a k l e p a s p u l a d a r i a d a n y a k e m u n g k i n a n a p r e s i a s i n i l a i d o l l a r y a n g s e c a r a t i d a k l a n g s u n g a k a n t e t a p m e m p e r c e p a t v e l o s i t a s d o l l a r .

W a l a u p u n a k a n t e r j a d i k e n a i k a n i n f l a s i , n a m u n m e n g i n g a t b a b w a k e n a i k a n i n f l a s i t e r s e b u t r e l a t i f k e c i l m a k a k e m u n g k i n a n b e s a r prime rate y a n g s e j a k b u l a n S e p t e m b e r 1 9 8 3 r e l a t i f s t a b i l y a i t u s ebesa r 1 1 % t i d a k a k a n b e r u b a b . D i s a m p i n g b a l i t u basic money supply y a n g p a d a s aa t i n i t e l a b m e n c a p a i t a r g e t y a n g t e l a b d i t e t a p k a n a k a n t e r u s d i p e r t a b a n k a n o l e b F e d e r a l R e s e r v e u n t u k m e n c e g a b t e r j a d i n y a f l u k t u a s i i n t e r e s t r a t e y a n g s a n g a t b e s a r . P r i m e r a t e k e m u n g k i n a n m e n i n g k a t a p a b i l a p e m e r i n t a b , d a l a m r a n g k a m e n u -t u p d e f i s i t n y a , a k a n m e n c a r i d a n a d a r i m a s y a r a k a t y a n g t e r k u m p u l a t a u b e r e d a r d i p a s a r u a n g . H a l i n i a k a n m e r u p a k a n s a i n g a n b a g i s w a s t a y a n g m e n c a r i d a n a j u g a d i t e m p a t y a n g s a m a . . - :

A k i b a t s e m a k i n n a i k n y a a k t i v i t a s p r o d u k s i d a n p e n j u a l a n d i s e t i a p s e k t o r , t e r u t a m a d i s e k t o r i n d u s t r i k e n d a r a a n m o b i l y a n g m e r u p a k a n s e k t o r t e r p e n t i n g d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t , m a k a unemployment rate d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e n u r u n m e n j a d i s e k i t a r 7 , 8 % . D e n g a n m e n u r u n n y a u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e m a k a real disposable income a k a n m e n i n g k a t s ebesa r 4 , 6 % d a n consumer spending d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n n a i k s e k i t a r 3 , 7 % .

A k t i v i t a s p r o d u k s i i n d u s t r i m o b i l k e m u n g k i n a n b e s a r p u l a a k a n m e n i n g k a t d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 4 . D a l a m t a b u n i n i d i p e r k i r a k a n b a s i l p e n j u a l a n m o b i l p r o d u k s i d o m e s t i k a k a n m e n i n g k a t m e n j a d i 1 0 j u t a p e r t a b u n . A k a n t e t a p i , s e b a l i k n y a , s e k t o r p e m b a n g u n a n p e r u m a b a n a t a u housing stars d i p e r k i r a k a n t i d a k a k a n b a n y a k b e r u b a b d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a m o r t g a g e r a t e y a n g p a d a saa t i n i s ebesa r 1 3 % t i d a k a k a n m e n u r u n d a n k e m u n g k i n a n t i d a k b e r u b a b s a m p a i p e r t e n g a b a n t a b u n 1 9 8 4 . D e n g a n t i d a k b e r u b a b n y a m o r t g a g e m a k a b o u s i n g s t a r t s s a m p a i t a b u n 1 9 8 4 d i p e r k i r a k a n m a s i b t e t a p b e r k i s a r s e k i t a r 1,8 j u t a u n i t p e r t a b u n .

D e n g a n m e l i b a t k e m u n g k i n a n p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 4 y a n g a k a n m e n i n g k a t s eca ra m o d e r a t , y a i t u d e n g a n k e n a i k a n G N P sebesa r 5 , 4 % , m a k a b a l i n i m e r u p a k a n s u a t u k e s e m p a t a n y a n g b a l k b a g i I n d o n e s i a u n t u k t e t a p m e n i n g k a t k a n e k s p o r n y a k e A m e r i k a S e r i k a t . A k a n t e t a p i , m e n g i n g a t b a b w a n e g a r a l a i n a k a n p u l a b e r u s a b a u n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n e k s p o r n y a k e A m e r i k a S e r i k a t , k e s e m p a t a n i n i p e r l u d i g u n a k a n se-b a i k - b a i k n y a d a n p e r l u d i t a n g a n i s e c a r a l e b i b s e r i u s a p a b i l a I n d o n e s i a m e -m a n g i n g i n m e n i n g k a t k a n e k s p o r n y a p a d a t a b u n - t a b u n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g .

S e m e n t a r a i t u , p e r e k o n o m i a n J e p a n g y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 t e l a b p u l a

i l 2 2 E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4

m e n u n j u k k a n p e m u l i h a n s e c a r a b e r t a h a p . K h u s u s n y a , d e n g a n d i t u n j a n g o l e b p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r a k i b a t p e m u l i h a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d i l u a r n e g e r i , u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 4 i n i t a m p a k n y a g e j a l a t e r s e b u t s e m a k i n k u a t . A p a b i l a p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i p e r k i r a k a n s ebesa r 3 , 4 % , u n t u k t a b u n i n i d i h a r a p k a n a k a n m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t 4 , 0 % . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n , t e r u t a m a , o l e b p e n i n g k a t a n d i d a l a m p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i y a n g p a l i n g t i d a k a k a n m e n d o r o n g l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n k e a r a b a n g k a 3 , 7 % . H a r g a - b a r g a d i p e r k i r a k a n a g a k s t a b i l , s e b i n g g a t i n g k a t b a r g a u m u m a k a n b e r a d a d a l a m a n g k a 1 , 4 % , s e d i k i t d i b a w a b t i n g k a t t a b u n l a l u y a n g sebesa r 1 , 7 % . S e d a n g k a n i n f l a s i d i p e r k i r a k a n s e d i k i t m e n i n g k a t , s e b a g a i a k i b a t t u m b u b n y a p e r m i n t a a n t e r s e b u t d i a t a s , m e n j a d i 2 , 8 % b i l a d i b a n d i n g t a b u n 1 9 8 3 y a n g t e r t i n g g i 2 , 1 % .

D i d a l a m s e k t o r r u m a b t a n g g a , k e n a i k a n t i n g k a t u p a b d i p e r k i r a k a n s e b a n y a k 5 % y a n g a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n t a m b a b a n p e n d a p a t a n b a g i k o n s u m e n . K e n a i k a n i n i t i m b u l s e m a t a - m a t a k a r e n a m e m b a i k n y a k e a d a a n d u n i a u s a b a . S e b a g a i t a m b a b a n , p e m o t o n g a n p a j a k s e d a n g d i r e n c a n a k a n . O l e b k a r e n a n y a p e r t u m b u h a n d a l a m real disposable income d i h a r a p k a n a k a n l e b i b t i n g g i d a r i t i n g k a t 2 , 7 % y a n g d i p e r k i r a k a n d i c a p a i p a d a t a b u n y a n g l a l u . D e n g a n m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n j u m l a h p e n a m b a h a n a n g k a t a n k e r j a y a n g d a p a t d i t a m p u n g d i s e k t o r - s e k t o r u s a b a d a n k e c e n d e r u n g a n k o n s u m s i d u n i a u s a b a , d a p a t d i h a r a p k a n p e n g e l u a r a n k o n s u m e n a k a n n a i k 4 , 0 % .

T i d a k saja p e r e k o n o m i a n d a l a m n e g e r i J e p a n g y a n g d i p e r k i r a k a n sem a k i n m e m b a i k , s e k t o r h u b u n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n d e n g a n l u a r n e g e r i j u g a m e m -b e r i k a n b a r a p a n y a n g c e r a b . J u m l a h e k s p o r d i h a r a p k a n m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 5 % d i a t a s t i n g k a t y a n g d i c a p a i p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , s e d a n g k a n b i l a d i l i h a t d a r i n i l a i n y a b a b k a n m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 8 , 7 % . S e m e n t a r a i t u , i m p o r d i h i t u n g d a r i s eg i j u m l a b n y a a k a n m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 5 , 4 % d i a t a s a n g k a p e r k i r a a n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 3 . T e t a p i b i l a d i l i h a t d a r i s eg i n i l a i n y a , m a k a d i h a r a p k a n p e n i n g k a t a n b a n y a s e k i t a r 8 , 1 % . D e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n d i b i d a n g p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i i n i , d i h a r a p k a n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 4 i n i p e r e k o n o m i a n J e p a n g a k a n m e n g a l a m i s u r p l u s d a l a m t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n ( c u r r e n t - a c c o u n t ) n e r a c a p e m -b a y a r a n n y a s e k i t a r 2 4 , 5 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S .

B a g i I n d o n e s i a , p e n i n g k a t a n u p a b d i J e p a n g y a n g m e n g a r a b p a d a k e n a i k a n d a l a m p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i , p e r l u d i m a n f a a t k a n s e b a i k - b a i k n y a o l e b k a l a n g a n s w a s t a . D i d a l a m m u s i m p a n a s i n i b a n y a k k o m o d i t i d a n b a r a n g -b a r a n g e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a y a n g m u n g k i n b i s a d i t a w a r k a n k e p a d a k o n s u m e n J e p a n g . P e n g i s i a n p e l u a n g t e r s e b u t p a d a a k b i r n y a t e r p u l a n g j u g a p a d a k e u l e t -a n d a n j i w a d a g a n g p a r a p e n g u s a b a s w a s t a k i t a .

Perekonomian Indonesia

A d a b e b e r a p a p e r i s t i w a y a n g p a t u t d i c a t a t , s e b u b u n g a n d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g -


a n p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a s aa t t i n j a u a n i n i d i t u r u n k a n . P e r t a m a , k e b i j a k s a n a a n l i b e r a l i s a s i p e r b a n k a n 1 J u n i 1 9 8 3 t e l a b m e l e w a t i u s i a n y a y a n g p e r t a m a , s e b i n g g a m e m a s u k i t a b u n k e d u a b a n y a k s e k a l i m a n f a a t y a n g d a p a t d i p e r o l e b d a r i p e l a j a r a n - p e l a j a r a n y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a m a s a p e l a k s a n a a n d i t a b u n p e r t a m a t e r s e b u t . P e n g a l a m a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i j a d i k a n " p o l i c y g u i d a n c e " d i d a l a m m e n i t i p e r j a l a o a n y a n g l e b i b m u l u s d i t a b u n k e d u a d a n se-t e r u s n y a . K e d u a , s i d a n g I G G I y a n g d i l a k u k a n p a d a a w a l J u n i i n i t e l a b m e n y e -t u j u i p e r m o b o n a n P e m e r i n t a b I n d o n e s i a u n t u k m e m p e r o l e b p i n j a m a n sebesa r U S $ 2 , 4 m i l y a r d . A d a d u a b a l y a n g p e r l u d i p e r b a t i k a n d a r i b a s i l s i d a n g I G G I t e r s e b u t . B i l a m e l i b a t k e d a l a m i n i b e r a r t i k e r a g u - r a g u a n y a n g m e n c e k a m k i t a s e m u a t e r b a d a p k e p a s t i a n d i p e r o l e b n y a p e n e r i m a a n p e m b a n g u n a n s ebesa r U S $ 2 , 4 m i l y a r d t e l a b m e n j a d i s i r n a , s e b i n g g a p e r b a t i a n s e k a r a n g p e r l u d i -a r a b k a n p a d a e f e k t i v i t a s p e l a k s a n a a n d a r i p e m u n g u t a n p a j a k u n t u k d a p a t m e m e n u b i t a r g e t p e n e r i m a a n d a l a m n e g e r i A P B N 1 9 8 4 / 8 5 sebesa r R p . 1 8 , 2 t r i l y u n . B a r a n g k a l i , k a t a - k a t a y a n g t e p a t u n t u k i n i a d a i a b b a b w a k i n i l a b s aa t -n y a i n t e r g r i t a s P e m e r i n t a b d i d a l a m m e l a k s a n a k a n U U P a j a k 1 9 8 4 m e n d a p a t k a n u j i a n y a n g s a n g a t b e r a t u n t u k m e l e t a k k a n d a s a r b a g i d i c i p t a k a n n y a m e k a n i s m e p e r p a j a k a n y a n g m u l u s d i t a b u n - t a b u n a n g g a r a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . D i l u a r , d i s e b u t - s e b u t n y a I n d o n e s i a d i f o r u m I G G I d a n K T T n e g a r a I n d u s t r i d i a n t a r a 2 n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g l a i n n y a y a i t u K o r e a S e l a t a n d a n M e x i c o s e b a g a i " t y p e i d e a l " d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g m a m p u m e m a n f a a t k a n b a n t u a n / p i n j a m a n l u a r n e g e r i u n t u k m e l e c u t p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a l a m n e g e r i . S e l a i n i t u , j u g a m e n a i k k a n m a r t a b a t b a n g s a I n d o n e s i a , y a n g d a r i s eg i p e r e n c a n a a n e k o n o m i t e l a b m e m a n t a p k a n p a r a p e r e n c a n a e k o n o m i t e r b a d a p k e m u n g k i n a n - k e m u n g k i n a n p o s i t i f d i p e r o l e b n y a p e n e r i m a a n d a r i s u m b e r -s u m b e r k e u a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i u n t u k t a b u n - t a b u n a n g g a r a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . H a l t e r s e b u t d i p e r l u k a n d a l a m r a n g k a m e n e r u s k a n m o m e n t u m p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g t e l a b d i c a p a i s e l a m a 3 e r a P e l i t a y a n g l a l u d a n m e m a s u k i e r a P e l i t a I V s e k a r a n g i n i .

S e m e n t a r a i t u , l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i y a n g t e l a b m e m b a i k , d a p a t d i j a d i k a n i n d i k a t o r b a b w a p e n g a r u b r e s e s i e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a t e r s e b u t t e l a b m u l a i m e r e d a ' . P e r b a i k a n e k o n o m i d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i t e r s e b u t d i t a m b a h d e n g a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n t e r b a d a p p i n j a m a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e b K T T n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i p a d a a w a l b u l a n J u n i i n i y a n g d i a n g g a p m o d e r a t , t e l a b m e n a n d a i a k a n b e r l a n g s u n g n y a p r o s p e k h u b u n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g l e b i b m e m b a i k d i d u n i a . K h u s u s n y a , d e n g a n b e r b a s i l n y a m i s i p e r d a g a n g a n I n d o n e s i a k e A m e r i k a S e r i k a t p a d a b u l a n M e i y a n g l a l u d i h a r a p k a n p r o s p e k p e n i n g k a t a n a k a n

1 l i h a t " P e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a " , T i n j a u a n T r i w u l a n P e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a , E K I , V o l . X X X I I , N o . 1 , M a r c h 1 9 8 4 . ' '


m e n i n g k a t . H a l i n i a k a n m e m p u n y a i k a i t a n d e n g a n d i k a i t k a n n y a k e m b a l i k e g i a t a n p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i y a n g t e r k e n a d a m p a k d a r i r e s e s i e k o n o m i d u n i a p a d a t a b u n - t a b u n t e r a k b i r i n i . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d i b a r a p k a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 4 i n i b e r a d a d i s e k i t a r t i n g k a t 4 , 0 % d e n g a n l a j u i n f l a s i s ebesa r 1 3 , 3 % d a n d e f i s i t d a l a m t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n ( c u r r e n t ac c o u n t ) n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n d i p e r k i r a k a n s e b a n y a k 4 , 8 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S .

S u a t u p e n g a m a t a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n p a r a a b l i e k o n o m i E K I m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a m e m a s u k i P e l i t a I V i n i m e r u p a k a n m o m e n t u m y a n g t e p a t u n t u k m e n g a l i b k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i k e " i n w a r d l o o k i n g " . S e b a b , s e l a m a 3 e r a P e l i t a y a n g l a l u , k e c e n d e r u n g a n k o n s u m s i m a r g i n a l m a s y a r a k a t t e l a b s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t d a r i 0 , 8 6 s e l a m a p e r i o d e P e l i t a I , I I ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 8 ) m e n j a d i 1 , 1 6 s e l a m a 3 e r a P e l i t a I , I I , I I I , ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 3 ) . S e m e n t a r a i t u , d i d a l a m k u r u n w a k t u y a n g s a m a , a n g k a - a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n t a b u n g a n m a r g i n a l d a r i m a s y a r a k a t t e l a b m e n u r u n d a r i 0 , 1 4 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 8 ) m e n j a d i - 0 , 1 6 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 3 ) . A n g k a - a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n e k s p o r m a r g i n a l j u g a m e n u r u n d a r i 0 , 2 3 ( 1 9 6 9 -1 9 7 8 ) m e n j a d i 0 , 1 3 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 3 ) , s e d a n g k a n a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n i m p o r m a r g i n a l m e n u n j u k k a n "angka t e r u s m e n a i k s e c a r a s u b s t a n t i a l , d a r i 0 , 4 5 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 8 ) m e n j a d i 0 , 5 5 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 3 ) .

P e r g e s e r a n - p e r g e s e r a n d a r i a n g k a - a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n k o n s u m s i m a r g i n a l m a s y a r a k a t d a r i 0 , 8 9 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 8 ) m e n j a d i 1 , 1 6 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 3 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a s e l a m a k u r u n w a k t u t i g a P e l i t a y a n g l a l u , d a y a s e r a p ( a b s o r p t i v e c a p a c i t y ) d a r i m a s y a r a k a t t e l a b m e n i n g k a t . P e n i n g k a t a n i n i d i i k u t i o l e b m e n i n g k a t n y a k e c e n d e r u n g a n i m p o r m a r g i n a l s e l a m a k u r u n y a n g s a m a d a r i 0 , 4 5 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 8 ) m e n j a d i 0 , 5 5 ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 8 3 ) . S e c a r a t e o r i t i s , b a l i n i t e l a b t e r w u j u d k a n d a l a m b e n t u k - b e n t u k m e n i n g k a t n y a " p e r m i n t a a n a g g r e g a t " y a n g k e k u r a n g a n n y a d a r i j u m l a h p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i s e c a r a l a n g s u n g b a r u s d i p e n u h i m e l a l u i i m p o r . H a s i l p e n g a m a t a n p a r a a b l i e k o n o m i E K I i n i s e j a l a n d e n g a n r e k o m e n d a s i B a n k D u n i a s e b a g a i m a n a d i u n g k a p k a n n y a d i d a l a m l a p o r a n n y a y a n g t e r a k b i r . D a l a m s a l a b s a t u r e k o m e n d a s i n y a d i s e b u t -k a n a g a r m e m a s u k i P e l i t a I V i n i , P e m e r i n t a b I n d o n e s i a h e n d a k n y a s e c a r a b e r a n g s u r - a n g s u r m e n g u r a n g i i m p o r n y a t e r m a s u k u n t u k b a r a n g - b a r a n g m o d a l . M u n g k i n B a n k D u n i a m e l i b a t b a b w a a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n i m p o r m a r g i n a l s ebesa r 0 , 5 5 i t u t e l a b d i a n g g a p m e m a s u k i t a b a p k r i t i s u n t u k k e -l a n g s u n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i I n d o n e s i a d i m a s a - m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g .

P a d a seg i l a i n , a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n m a r g i n a l u n t u k i n v e s t a s i y a n g m e n g e n d a p p a d a a n g k a 0 , 2 3 ( d e n g a n c u r r e n t p r i c e ) d a n 0 , 3 6 8 ( d e n g a n c o n s t a n t p r i c e 1 9 7 3 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a s e l a m a t i g a e r a P e l i t a y a n g l a l u a r a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n i n v e s t a s i t e l a b m e n g e n d a p p a d a s u a t u r a t i o y a n g t e t a p t e r b a d a p p r o d u k d o m e s t i k b r u t o ( P D B ) . D e n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n P D B s e b a r u s -n y a a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n i n v e s t a s i m a r g i n a l i n i j u g a m e n i n g k a t s e t i a p t a -


h u n n y a . D e m i k i a n j u g a h a l n y a d e n g a n a n g k a k e c e n d e r u n g a n p a j a k m a r g i n a l y a n g t e l a h m e n g e n d a p p a d a a n g k a 0 , 2 4 . I n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e r p a j a k a n t e l a b d i l a k s a n a k a n s e c a r a k o n s t a n , s e b i n g g a d e n g a n t u m b u b n y a P D B p e r t a h u n n y a , r a t i o p e r p a j a k a n t e r b a d a p P D B t e r s e b u t se-b a r u s n y a d a p a t d i t i n g k a t k a n l a g i . M e m a s u k i P e l i t a I V , d e n g a n a d a n y a U U P a j a k t a b u n 1 9 8 4 , m a k a r a t i o p e r p a j a k a n t e r b a d a p P D B t e r s e b u t d i b a r a p k a n d a p a t l e b i b d i t i n g k a t k a n l a g i .

S e l a n j u t n y a , l a n g k a b P e m e r i n t a b d i s eg i p e n g u r a n g a n l i k u - l i k u p e r i z i n -a n y a n g a k a n m e m p u n y a i d a m p a k p o s i t i f t e r b a d a p s e k t o r p r o d u k s i d a n p e r d a g a n g a n . H a l i n i p e r l u d i c a t a t d a n d i a m a t i u n t u k k e m u d i a n d i t a r i k s u a t u b a s i l p e n g a m a t a n a p a k a h b e t u l a d a " h a m b a t a n b i r o k r a s i " ( b u r e a u c r a t i c t r a p ) y a n g s e l a m a i n i d i a n g g a p m e l a n d a k e g i a t a n d i s e k t o r - s e k t o r t e r s e b u t .

A k b i r n y a , m e m a s u k i t r i w u l a n k e - I I t a b u n p e r t a m a P e l i t a I V i n i , i s s u e y a n g b e r h u b u n g a n d e n g a n s e g i " p e m b a n g u n a n r e g i o n a l " s e r t a p e n g a r u b p e -r a n g I r a n - I r a k t e r b a d a p a r u s s u p p l y m i n y a k d a r i T i m u r T e n g a b d a n d a m p a k -n y a b a g i p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a p e r l u m e n d a p a t k a n p e n g a m a t a n y a n g s e r i u s .

Neraca Pembayaran dan Perdagangan Luar Negeri

P o s i s i c a d a n g a n d e v i s a I n d o n e s i a p a d a b u l a n M a r e t 1 9 8 4 t e r c a t a t s ebesa r U S $ 5 . 1 4 3 , 8 j u t a . A n g k a t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n p o s i s i c a d a n g a n d e v i s a y a n g s e m a k i n m e m b a i k s e t e l a b p a d a b u l a n M a r e t 1 9 8 3 m e n c a p a i t i t i k t e r e n d a h n y a d e n g a n b a n y a s ebesa r U S $ 3 . 0 7 3 , 4 j u t a .

K e n a i k a n c a d a n g a n d e v i s a M a r e t 1 9 8 4 s e b e s a r 6 7 , 4 % b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p o s i s i n y a p a d a b u l a n M a r e t 1 9 8 3 t e r s e b u t , t e r u t a m a d i s e b a b k a n m e n i n g k a t n y a t o t a l v o l u m e e k s p o r p a d a t r i w u l a n p e r t a m a y a n g b a r u l a l u . T o t a l e k s p o r J a n u a r i - M a r e t 1 9 8 4 m e n c a p a i n i l a i U S $ 5 . 1 2 9 , 4 8 1 j u t a , a t a u n a i k 2 7 , 1 % d i b a n d i n g k a n t o t a l e k s p o r d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , y a n g b a n y a b e r j u m l a b U S S 4 . 0 3 4 , 6 5 3 j u t a .

M i n y a k b u m i d a n b a s i l - b a s i l n y a t e t a p m e m b e r i a n d i l t e r b e s a r b a g i k e n a i k a n t o t a l e k s p o r d a l a m t r i w u l a n p e r t a m a 1 9 8 4 d e n g a n n i l a i s e b e s a r U S $ 3 . 0 5 7 , 3 8 4 j u t a . J u m l a h i n i m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n 3 2 , 4 % b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n n i l a i e k s p o r m i n y a k b u m i d a n b a s i l - b a s i l n y a d a l a m t r i w u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 y a n g b a n y a m e n c a p a i U S S 2 . 3 0 9 , 7 1 1 j u t a .

E k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g n o n - m i g a s y a n g a k b i r - a k b i r i n i m e m a n g t e l a b b e r k e m b a n g l e b i b b a l k , d a l a m p e r i o d e J a n u a r i - M a r e t 1 9 8 4 m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n s ebesa r 2 3 , 1 % b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . D a l a m b u l a n M a r e t 1 9 8 4 t e r c a t a t n i l a i e k s p o r n o n - m i g a s s ebesa r U S S 1 . 2 3 3 , 7 7 1 j u t a . S e d a n g k a n , n i l a i e k s p o r n y a d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a


t a h u n 1 9 8 3 a d a l a h s ebesa r U S S 1 . 0 0 2 , 3 2 2 j u t a . N i l a i e k s p o r gas a l a m d a l a m p e r i o d e J a n u a r i — M a r e t 1 9 8 4 m e n g a l a m i

k e n a i k a n 1 6 % d i b a n d i n g k a n h a s i l n y a d a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n y a n g l a l u . D a l a m t r i w u l a n p e r t a m a 1 9 8 4 n i l a i e k s p o r gas a l a m sebesa r U S S 8 3 8 , 3 2 6 j u t a . S e d a n g k a n , J a n u a r i — M a r e t 1 9 8 3 a d a i a b sebesa r U S S 7 2 2 , 6 2 0 j u t a .

S e p e r t i t e l a b d i u r a i k a n d a l a m T i n j a u a n T r i w u l a n s e b e l u m n y a b a b w a p e r a n a n e k s p o r n o n - m i g a s s e m a k i n c e r a b d i m a s a d e p a n d e n g a n b e r a n g s u r n y a p e m u l i h a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a . D a l a m p e r i o d e J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i 1 9 8 4 t e l a b t a m p a k k e n a i k a n b a l k n i l a i m a u p u n b e r a t b e r b a g a i k o m o d i t i n o n - m i g a s , a n t a r a l a i n k o p i , n i k e l , b a r a n g t a m b a n g ( l a i n n y a ) , t e b , b a b a n m a k a n a n ( l a i n n y a ) , k e r a j i n a n t a n g a n , l a d a , d a n a l a t - a l a t l i s t r i k .

D e n g a n d i p e n g a r u h i t e r u t a m a o l e b a d a n y a k e n a i k a n b a r g a m a k a d a l a m J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i 1 9 8 4 , y a n g d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , n i l a i e k s p o r n i k e l n a i k 1 9 7 % d a n b e r a t n y a n a i k 2 9 , 2 % . J u g a , n i l a i e k s p o r t e b n a i k 1 4 4 , 2 % d a n b e r a t n y a m e n i n g k a t 3 1 , 9 % , s e r t a e k s p o r l a d a n a i k b a l k n i l a i m a u p u n b e r a t n y a d e n g a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g 1 5 6 , 5 % d a n 5 6 % . S e d a n g k a n , k o p i w a l a u p u n b e r a t n y a b e r t a m b a b 1 % , t e t a p i n i l a i n y a n a i k 1 2 % .

P e r m i n t a a n b a r a n g t a m b a n g ( l a i n n y a ) , k e r a j i n a n t a n g a n , d a n a l a t - a l a t l i s t r i k m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n y a n g c u k u p b e r a r t i d a l a m p e r i o d e J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i 1 9 8 4 d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 . B a r a n g -b a r a n g k e r a j i n a n t a n g a n d a n a l a t - a l a t l i s t r i k b e r a t n y a m e n i n g k a t p e s a t d e n g a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g 1 9 2 , 8 % d a n 1 2 2 , 5 % . S e b i n g g a , n i l a i e k s p o r k e r a j i n a n t a n g a n n a i k 1 2 3 , 5 % , d a n n i l a i e k s p o r a l a t - a l a t l i s t r i k m e n i n g k a t 2 0 , 7 % . S e l a i n i t u , s e l a m a J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i 1 9 8 4 t a m p a k e k s p o r b a r a n g ( l a i n n y a ) n a i k n i l a i n y a s ebesa r 1 7 , 3 % , d a n b e r a t n y a n a i k 3 3 % .

B a b a n m a k a n a n y a n g t e r g o l o n g d a l a m " l a i n n y a " m e n g a l a m i k e m a j u a n b a l k b a r g a m a u p u n p e r m i n t a a n n y a s e l a m a J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i 1 9 8 4 . S e b i n g g a , b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n n y a d a l a m p e r i o d e J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i 1 9 8 3 m a k a t e r d a p a t k e n a i k a n n i l a i n y a s ebesa r 1 5 5 , 6 % d a n b e r a t n y a 1 4 3 , 4 % .

D e n g a n s e m a k i n m e m b a i k n y a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i d e w a s a i n i d a n m e l i b a t b a s i l K T T N e g a r a I n d u s t r i p a d a a w a l J u n i 1 9 8 4 y a n g l a l u , t a m p a k s e c e r c a b b a r a p a n s ege ra p u l i b n y a k e g i a t a n p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l d i b a g i a n - b a g i a n d u n i a t e r t e n t u . K h u s u s n y a , a n t a r a A S E A N d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i . A p a b i l a t i d a k t e r j a d i b a l - b a l y a n g l u a r b i a s a s e p e r t i b e n c a n a a l a m , m a k a d i m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g d a p a t d i b a r a p k a n k e m a j u a n y a n g l e b i b p e s a t d i s e k t o r e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a .

P a d a w a k t u t u l i s a n i n i d i t u r u n k a n t e r d a p a t b a l - b a l y a n g p e r l u d i c a t a t s e b u b u n g a n d e n g a n k e m a j u a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n d a n p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e -


Tabel 1 Neraca Pembayaran (dalam jutaan US $)

1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4

I I I * I I I * * I V * * I * *

4*1. tfUrfltUfI UUfUf»K LfUIUf*^ *Mtll JUaU

fnpttn\ JUMt I f l C l H J /

-3.146 -1.043 -925 - 7 . 4 5 9 -1.284

E k s p o r , t . o . D . 4 . U / D H.OUO S C\f.(\ J . u o u

a o n i A 7 4 1

a i a n t a r a n y a : r e r u s a r i a a n r n u i y a k / g a s a l a m c a i r ex ^ Q A ^ ex Aiti\ ( 3 . ^ 1 0 ) tX HAS \ 3 . 1 I t ) (X AXS\ ( 3 . t 3 3 ) (X ASX\ ( 3 . t 3 3 )

i m p o r , t . 0 . 0 . ' — 5 4 4 7 - 4 . 0 4 7 - 4 . 1 9 7 - 4 . 5 1 9 - 4 . 3 4 0 d i a n t a r a n y a : P e r u s a h a a n m i n y a k / g a s a l a m c a i r ( - 1 . 1 0 7 ) ( - 8 8 4 ) ( - 1 . 1 8 5 ) ( - 1 . 2 2 6 ) ( - 1 . 0 0 4 ) P e n g a n g k u t a n d a n P e r j a l a n a n ( n e t t o ) - 7 1 1 - 5 2 1 - 6 0 8 - 5 8 4 - 5 7 1 P e n d a p a t a n m o d a l d a n b u n g a ( n e t t o ) - 7 5 0 - 8 0 8 - 8 7 9 - 8 6 5 - 6 8 4 d i a n t a r a n y a : P e r u s a h a a n m i n y a k / g a s a l a m c a i r f A C 1 \

( - 4 6 3 ) ( - 4 2 6 ) ( - 5 1 4 ) ( - 5 0 5 ) ( - 4 2 8 )

P e m e r i n t f l h t t h 1 f n e t t o J - 2 2 - 1 4 - 1 9 - 1 9 - 4 2 J a s a - j a s a l a i n n y a ( n e t t o ) - 2 8 9 - 2 6 1 - 2 8 2 - 3 7 3 - 3 8 8

B. Special Drawing righ ts (SDR)

C. Lalu-lintas modal swasta (netto) 900 439 280 285 240

U, J - i Q i U - i m I O A r i H / l U l l t C f r l c r i r l l U r l 1 4 ? 7 l . - r J A

1 171

"L^vA/li^ I7 V ATI i4/l%n v%4n A n t^Avi^iiAn K r e a i t - K r e a i t / D a n t u a n - D a n n i a n 1 i k n 1 n t 7

X . \ J 3 x i 1 AX") X . 1 4 4 1 7 ( 1 7 1 7 7 1

X. J / X P L - 4 8 0 ' y.

E. Jumlah A sampai D -1.086 428 787 33 327

F. Selisih perhitungan 6 251 -12 247 9

G. Lalu-lintas moneter 2) 1.080 -679 -775 -280 -336 M u t a s i - m u t a s i d a l a m h u b u n g a n I M F ( n e t t o ) - 1 2 3 9 - 7 5 - 2 P a s i v a l u a r n e g e r i 1 A k t i v a l u a r n e g e r i ( t a m b a h = - ) 1 . 0 8 1 - 9 1 8 - 7 7 5 - 2 0 6 - 3 3 4

1 ) S e j a k t a h u n 1 9 7 2 d a s a r p e n c a t a t a n i m p o r d i r u b a h d a r i p e m b u k a a n L / C m e n j a d i p e n g e l u a r a n K P P o l e h B a n k u n t u k i m p o r t i r s e b e l u m p e n g e l u a r a n b a r a n g d a r i p e l a b u h a n .

2 ) S e j a k t a h u n 1 9 7 1 d i r u b a h d a r i d a s a r e x t r a c o m p t a b l e m e n j a d i i n t r a c o m p t a b l e . 3 ) S e j a k t r i w u l a n I I I 1 9 7 7 t e r m a s u k t r a n s a k s i p e r u s a h a a n - p e r u s a h a a n G a s A l a m C a i r .

* A n g k a - a n g k a s e m e n t a r a . ** A n g k a - a n g k a b e l u m l e n g k a p S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , S t a t i s t i k E k o n o m i - K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s i a , V o l . X V I I N o . 3 ,

M a r e t 1 9 8 4 .


file:///J3xi

Tabel 2 Ringkasan Peikembangan Ekspor Indonesia

Januari - Pebruari 1984

J e n i s B a r a n g / S e k t o r * ) V o l u m e ( R i b u T o n ) % P e r u b a b a n

1 Q 8 4 T H D 1 0 R 7 X 7 0 1 I n u ( J a n . - P e b . )

N i l a i F O B ( J u t a U S S ) % P e r u b a b a n 1 0 0 4 X T j r x 1 0 0 7 lyot I x l U iyo5 ( J a n . - P e b . )

% P e r a n a n T H D 1 o t a l E k s p o r ( J a n . - P e b . ' 8 4 )

J e n i s B a r a n g / S e k t o r * ) J a n . - P e b .

1 9 8 3 J a n . - P e b .

1 9 8 4

% P e r u b a b a n 1 Q 8 4 T H D 1 0 R 7 X 7 0 1 I n u ( J a n . - P e b . ) J a n . - P e b .

1 9 8 3 J a n . - P e b .

1 9 8 4

% P e r u b a b a n 1 0 0 4 X T j r x 1 0 0 7 lyot I x l U iyo5 ( J a n . - P e b . )

% P e r a n a n T H D 1 o t a l E k s p o r ( J a n . - P e b . ' 8 4 )

( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 3 ) ( 4 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) ( 8 )

T O T A L E K S P O R 13.074.6 18.280.6 + 39.82 2.815.4 3.614.5 + 28.38 100.00

M I G A S 8.395.2 12.303.8 + 46.56 2.202.2 2.745.7 + 24.68 75.96

- M i n y a k m e n t a h 6 . 7 6 0 . 7 9 . 1 3 1 . 8 + 3 5 . 0 7 i . i n . i 2 . 0 2 8 . 3 + 1 4 . 4 5 5 6 . 1 2

- H a s i l m i n y a k 4 4 1 . 7 9 3 3 . 4 + 1 1 1 . 3 2 9 3 . 9 1 9 4 . 2 + 1 0 6 . 8 2 5 . 3 7

— G a s a l a m 1 . 1 9 2 . 8 2 . 2 3 8 . 6 + 8 7 . 6 7 3 3 6 . 1 5 2 3 . 2 + 5 5 . 6 7 1 4 . 4 7

N O N M I G A S 4.679.4 5.976.8 + 27.73 613.2 868.8 + 41.68 24.04

- H a s i l S e k t o r P e r t a n i a n 5 8 7 . 4 4 9 0 . 2 - 1 6 . 5 5 2 0 3 . 8 2 3 6 . 0 + 1 5 . 8 0 6 . 5 3

- H a s i l S e k t o r I n d u s t r i 8 2 0 . 2 9 9 2 . 1 + 2 0 . 9 6 3 6 4 . 1 5 5 9 . 9 + 5 3 . 7 8 1 5 . 4 9 X

- H a s i l S e k t o r T a m b a n g 3 7 6 . 2 5 6 8 . 9 + 5 1 . 2 2 2 6 . 3 3 6 . 3 + 3 8 . 0 2 1 . 0 1

- L a i n n y a ( + P a s i r a l a m ) 2 . 8 9 5 . 6 3 . 9 2 5 . 6 + 3 5 . 5 7 1 9 . 0 3 6 . 6 + 9 2 . 6 3 1 . 0 1

' ) K l a s i f l k a s i j e n i s b a r a n g m e n u r u t s e k t o r b e r d a s a r k a n I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a n d a r d I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n ( I S I C ) .

S u m b e r : B P S , B u l l e t i n R i n g k a s a n , J u n i 1 9 8 4 .

Tabel 3 Perkembangan Ekspor Indonesia Menurut

Beberapa Jenis Barang Utama

J e n i s B a r a n g N i l a i ( j u t a U S S )

J a n u a r i - M a r e t * 1 9 8 3

J a n u a r i - M a r e t * * 1 9 8 4

1 . M i n y a k B u m i d a n H a s i l - h a s i l n y a 2 . 3 0 9 . 7 1 1 3 . 0 5 7 . 3 8 4 1 ,̂ 3 2 , 4

2 . G a s A l a m 7 2 2 . 6 2 0 8 3 8 . 3 2 6 ' y 1 6 , 0

3 . B a r a n g - b a r a n g d i l u a T ( l ) d a n ( 2 ) 1 . 0 0 2 . 3 2 2 1 . 2 3 3 . 7 7 1 2 3 , 1

T o t a l 4 . 0 3 4 . 6 5 3 5 . 1 2 9 . 4 8 1 2 7 , 1

* A n g k a - a n g k a s e m e n t a r a . ** A n g k a - a n g k a b e l u m l e n g k a p S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , L a p o r a n M i n g g u a n , 2 8 J u n i 1 9 8 4 .

Tabel 4 V •' Peikembangan Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

Maret 1983 - Maret 1984 (dalam jutaan USS)

B u l a n J u m l a h

M a r e t 1 9 8 3

Apdl M e i J u n i J u U A g u s t u s S e p t e m b e r O k t o b e r N o p e m b e r D e s e m b e r J a n u a r i 1 9 8 4 P e b r u a r i M a r e t

U S S 3 . 0 7 4 , 4 3 . 4 4 4 , 0 3 . 7 2 6 , 2 3 . 7 5 3 , 5 4 . 2 1 5 , 5 4 . 5 0 8 , 9 4 . 5 2 8 , 1 4 . 6 3 1 , 2 4 . 6 7 8 , 0 4 . 8 0 8 , 2 4 . 8 5 0 , 8 5 . 0 4 8 , 2 5 . 1 4 3 , 8

S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , S t a t i s t i k E k o n o m i - K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s i a , V o l . X V I I N o . 3 , M a r e t 1 9 8 4


g e r i I n d o n e s i a . P e r t a m a , P e m e r i n t a h m e n g u m u m k a n b a h w a c a d a n g a n d e v i s a I n d o n e s i a s a m p a i 1 9 M e i 1 9 8 4 t e l a h m e n c a p a i U S S 1 0 m i l y a r . J u m l a h i n i m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n t i g a k a l i l i p a t b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p o s i s i cad a n g a n d e v i s a d a l a m b u l a n M a r e t 1 9 8 3 .

A d a n y a k e n a i k a n c a d a n g a n d e v i s a y a n g b e s a r i t u m e r u p a k a n s u a t u k e -n y a t a a n b a b w a s e r e n t e t a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n P e m e r i n t a b d i b i d a n g e k o n o m i b e r u p a d e v a l u a s i M a r e t 1 9 8 3 , l i b e r a l i s a s i p e r b a n k a n J u n i 1 9 8 3 , u n d a n g - u n -d a n g p e r p a j a k a n y a n g b a r u m a u p u n d i l a k u k a n n y a p e n j a d w a l a n k e m b a l i b e b e r a p a p r o y e k b e s a r t e l a b s e m a k i n m e n a m p a k k a n seg i p o s i t i f n y a . P e n i n g k a t a n c a d a n g a n d e v i s a y a n g p e s a t i t u a k a n m e n a m b a b k e p e r c a y a a n m a s y a r a k a t t e r b a d a p p e r e k o n o m i a n d a n m a t a u a n g R u p i a b .

K e d u a , b e b e r a p a w a k t u y a n g l a l u G u b e r n u r B a n k I n d o n e s i a m e n y a t a -k a n d i d e p a n D P R b a b w a p a d a a k b i r t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 8 3 / 8 4 n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n d i p e r k i r a k a n s u r p l u s s ebesa r U S S 1 , 4 6 m i l y a r . D a n , s e u s a i S i d a n g T e r b a t a s B i d a n g E k u i n p a d a a w a l J u l i 1 9 8 4 , P e m e r i n t a b m e n g u m u m k a n p u l a b a b w a t e r d a p a t s u r p l u s n e r a c a p e r d a g a n g a n sebesa r U S $ 7 , 6 m i l y a r .

D a n k e t i g a , P e r t e m u a n T a b u n a n M e n l u A S E A N ( M M A ) k e - 1 7 d i J a k a r t a , y a n g k e m u d i a n d i l a k u k a n d i a l o g a n t a r a A S E A N d a n M E E s e r t a n e g a r a - n e g a r a p a r t n e r d i k a w a s a n P a s i f i k , t e l a b m e m b u a b k a n b e b e r a p a k e i n g i n a n u n t u k l e b i b m e n i n g k a t k a n k e r j a s a m a e k o n o m i .

H a l - b a l t e r s e b u t , d a n d i t a m b a h d e n g a n b a s i l S i d a n g O P E C d i W i n a y a n g b a r u l a l u d i m a n a m e n e t a p k a n t i d a k d i l a k u k a n n y a p e r o b a b a n b a l k t i n g k a t b a r g a d a n p r o d u k s i m i n y a k b u m i , s u d a b b a r a n g t e n t u m e r u p a k a n b e r i t a y a n g c u k u p m e n g g e m b i r a k a n d a n m e m b e r i b a r a p a n b a l k d i m a s a d e p a n .

Perkembangan Moneter dan Perbankan

Perkembangan Moneter

S e l a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 j u m l a h u a n g y a n g b e r e d a r t e l a b m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 1 0 , 0 6 % a t a u s ebesa r R p 6 9 2 m i l y a r d ; y a i t u R p 6 . 8 7 7 m i l y a r d p a d a b u l a n J a n u a r i 1 9 8 3 m e n j a d i R p 7 . 5 6 9 m i l y a r d p a d a b u l a n D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 3 . D i b a n d i n g k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n n y a y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a p e r t e n g a b a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 4 , l a j u p e r t a m b a b a n n y a j a u b l e b i b c e p a t . S e l a m a J a n u a r i — M e i 1 9 8 4 , j u m l a h u a n g y a n g b e r e d a r t e l a b b e r t a m b a b d e n g a n R p 8 3 5 m i l y a r d , a t a u s ebesa r 1 1 , 2 9 % . J u m l a h u a n g y a n g b e r e d a r p a d a b u l a n M e i 1 9 8 4 d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b u l a n M e i 1 9 8 3 t e l a b m e n i n g k a t sebesa r 1 3 , 2 4 % .

U m u m n y a , s e b a b - s e b a b u t a m a p e r u b a b a n j u m l a h u a n g y a n g b e r e d a r i t u a d a i a b m e n i n g k a t n y a a k t i v a l u a r n e g e r i d a n t a g i b a n p a d a p e r u s a b a a n d a n


Tabel: 5

Perubahan sebab-sebab yang mempengaruhi Jumlah Uang Yang Beredar (milyard Rupiah)

S e k t o r P e m e r i n t a h a n j o - I t i • Airtiva G — r — G - G T - T Z 7 n . • T a g i h a n p a d a S i m p a n a n ^ l L a i n n y a

P a d a a k h i r L u a T N e e e r i T a g i h a n b e r s d , T a g i h a n p a d a R e k e n i n g p e r u s a h a a n & B e r j a n g k a b e r s i b L u a r N e g e r i p j p ^ ^ p ^ ^ ^ B d / L e m b / K h u s u s p e r o r a n g a n & T a b u n g a n

P e r u s b . P e m .

J a n 7 7 - 4 3 3 - 2 9 0 8 9 - 2 2 2 3 5

F e b - 1 2 2 4 2 6 - 1 3 1 3 5 - 3 6 - 2 3 6

M a r - 3 9 3 5 6 5 - 7 4 - 1 7 7 - 2 3 7 - 2 6

A p r i l 3 9 8 - 5 1 0 - 9 5 2 4 5 - 2 0 8 - 2 3 1

M e i 3 1 1 4 2 8 4 - 2 1 - 1 5 2 2 4 7

J a n 3 4 4 - 3 4 3 - 5 3 2 3 9 - 1 8 9 - 1 7 5

F e b 3 0 3 - 2 5 0 - 6 8 2 3 4 - 2 4 8 - 1 6

M a r 1 4 2 9 6 - 2 2 - 3 4 3 8 - 2 0 3 - 6 3 9

A p r i l - 5 7 - 6 1 5 5 1 6 4 2 5 2 - 1 4 4 5 4 7

M e i * 1 9 9 4 2 8 1 2 1 - 7 3 - 3 1 2

M e i * * 1 9 0 - 4 0 1 8 5 2 - 3 6 2 1 2

S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , L a p o r a n M i n g g u a n , N o . 1 3 0 9 7 J u n i 1 9 8 4 , b a l . 1 1 • ) T e r m a s u k r e k e n m g - r e k e n i n g v a l u t a a s i n g m i l i k p e n d u d u k

* * ) A n g k a s e m e n t a r a .

p e r o r a n g a n . S e l a m a J a n u a r i - M e i 1 9 8 4 a k t i v a l u a r n e g e r i t e l a h m e n i n g k a t s ebesa r R p 1 . 5 0 2 m i l y a r . S e c a r a a b s o l u t , p e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t a d a i a b l e b i b b e s a r d a r i p a d a a n g k a y a n g d i c a p a i s e l a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , y a i t u s e b e s a r R p 1 . 0 6 9 m i l y a r . S e m e n t a r a i t u , s e l a m a J a n u a r i - M e i 1 9 8 4 , t a g i b a n p a d a p e r u s a b a a n d a n p e r o r a n g a n t e l a b m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n R p 1 . 3 3 6 m i l y a r . D i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b a s i l y a n g d i c a p a i s e l a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , y a i t u s ebesa r R p 2 . 1 8 3 m i l y a r ; a n g k a s e l a m a J a n u a r i - M e i 1 9 8 4 b a r u m e n c a p a i 6 1 , 2 % . N a m u n d e m i k i a n , k e d u a k e g i a t a n t e r s e b u t m a s i b t e t a p m e r u p a k a n p e n d o r o n g e k s p a n s i m o n e t e r y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a p e r t e n g a b a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 4 ( t a b e l

Tabel 6 i L

Jumlah Uang Beredar (dalam milyar rupiah)

P a d a a k h i r J u m l a b P e r u b a b a n % K a r t a l % G i r a l %

1 9 8 3 J a n 6 . 8 7 7 2 4 4 - 3 2 . 8 0 4 4 1 4 . 0 7 3 5 9 F e b 7 . 0 3 1 + 1 5 4 + 2 2 . 8 7 6 4 1 4 . 1 5 5 5 9 M a i 7 . 3 7 9 + 3 4 8 + 5 3 . 0 0 0 4 1 4 . 3 7 9 5 9 A p r i l 7 . 0 2 2 3 5 7 + 5 2 . 9 8 3 4 2 4 . 0 3 9 5 8 M e i 7 . 2 6 5 + 2 4 3 + 3 3 . 0 6 9 4 2 4 . 1 9 6 5 8

1 9 8 4 J a n 7 . 3 9 2 1 7 7 - 2 3 3 . 1 8 4 4 3 4 . 2 0 8 5 7 F e b 7 . 6 5 6 + 2 6 4 + 4 3 . 2 3 7 4 2 4 . 4 1 9 5 8 M a r 8 . 0 5 5 + 3 9 9 + 5 3 . 5 5 4 4 4 4 . 5 0 1 5 6 A p r i l 8 . 1 5 3 + 9 8 + 1 3 . 5 2 4 4 3 4 . 6 2 9 5 7 M e i * 8 . 2 2 7 + 2 5 3 . 3 9 0 4 1 4 . 8 3 7 5 9

S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , L a p o i a n M i n g g u a n , N o . 1 3 0 9 , 7 J u n i 1 9 8 4 , b a l . 1 0 . * A n g k a ' s e m e n t a r a .

Perkembangan Perbankan

P a d a w a k t u t i n j a u a n i n i d i t u r u n k a n , k e b i j a k s a n a a n l i b e r a l i s a s i p e r b a n k a n 1 J u n i 1 9 8 3 t e l a b m e m a s u k i l a b u n k e d u a . K e b i j a k s a n a a n m o n e t e r t a n g g a l 1 J u n i 1 9 8 3 t e r s e b u t s e l a i n t e l a b m e r u b a b p e r i m b a n g a n p o r t f o l i o p e r b a n k a n , j u g a t e l a b m e i i u n t u t p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n d i d a l a m p r o s e d u r k e r j a , o r g a n i s a s i d a n k u a b f i k a s i d a r i p e r s o n i l . P e r u b a b a n p a d a s e g i p o r t f o l i o t e r l i h a t p a d a p e r u b a b a n - p e r u b a b a n y a n g t e r j a d i p a d a s i s t e m p a g u , k r e d i t s e l e k t i f d a n


s u b s i d i t i n g k a t b u n g a . P a d a b a k e k a t n y a , p e r u b a b a n - p e r u b a b a n t e r s e b u t l e b i b b a n y a k m e l i b a t k a n s i s t e m p e r b a n k a n m i l i k n e g a r a . S e b a b , k u r a n g l e b i b 8 0 % d a r i s e l u r u b v o l u m e k r e d i t p e r b a n k a n m a s i b d i d o m i n i r o l e b b a n k - b a n k m i l i k n e g a r a . K e s u l i t a n - k e s u l i t a n p o r t f o l i o y a n g d i a l a m i p a d a p e r t e n g a b a n k e d u a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 t e l a b d i b e r i k a n j a l a n k e l u a r n y a . ' M e l a l u i d i k e l u a r k a n n y a S e r t i f i k a t B a n k I n d o n e s i a ( S B I ) s e j a k b u l a n J a n u a r i 1 9 8 4 , d a n f a s i l i t a s g a d a i u l a n g d a r u r a t t e l a b b a n y a k s e k a l i m e m b a n t u k e s u U t a n l i q u i d i t a s y a n g d i a l a m i o l e b s e k t o r p e r b a n k a n p a d a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t , m e s k i p u n k e l e s u a n k e g i a t a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d i d a l a m n e g e r i m a s i b t e t a p m e m b a y a n g i .

S e l a m a p e r i o d e J a n u a r i - M e i 1 9 8 4 , g a m b a r a n p e r k e m b a n g a n s e k t o r p e r b a n k a n d a p a t d i l i b a t s e c a r a l e b i b j e l a s m e l a l u i p e r k e m b a n g a n d a r i i n d i k a -t o r - i n d i k a t o r k e g i a t a n d i s e k t o r m o n e t e r i n i , y a n g m e l i p u t i p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r k r e d i t a n ( t a b e l 8 ) d a n p e r k e m b a n g a n K I K - K M K P ( t a b e l 9 ) .

P e r k e m b a n g a n d a n a - d a n a d a n P e m e r i n t a b y a n g d a p a t d i b i m p u n o l e b s e k t o r p e r b a n k a n t e r c a t a t b a b w a p o s i s i g i r o , d e p o s i t o d a n t a b u n g a n y a n g d i c a p a i p a d a b u l a n M e i 1 9 8 4 d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b u l a n y a n g s a m a p a d a t a b u n y a n g l a l u t e l a b m e n i n g k a t m a s i n g - m a s i n g s ebesa r 1 5 , 3 % , 1 7 4 , 5 % d a n 2 6 , 4 % . K e a d a a n i t u t e l a b m e n y e b a b k a n d a n a p e r b a n k a n s e c a r a k e s e l u r u b a n m e n i n g k a t s ebesa r 4 2 , 2 % b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n a n g k a y a n g t e r c a p a i p a d a b u l a n M e i 1 9 8 3 , y a i t u d a r i R p 5 . 5 7 6 , 3 m i l y a r m e n j a d i R p 7 . 9 3 2 , 9 m i l y a r . S e m e n t a r a i t u , b i l a d i l i b a t p e r k e m b a n g a n n y a s e l a m a p e r i o d e J a n u a r i - M e i 1 9 8 4 , m a k a g i r o t e l a b m e n i n g k a t sebesa r 1 4 , 2 % , d e p o s i t o sebesa r 1 7 , 8 % d a n t a b u n g a n s ebesa r 1 1 , 2 % . K e n a i k a n g i r o , d e p o s i t o d a n t a b u n g a n t e r s e b u t s e c a r a k e s e l u r u b a n t e l a b m e n d o r o n g t e r b i m p u n n y a m o b i l i s a s i d a n a m a s y a r a k a t s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t sebesa r 1 5 , 0 % , y a i t u d a r i R p 6 . 8 9 4 , 6 m i l y a r m e n j a d i R p 7 . 9 3 2 , 9 m i l y a r , d e n g a n k o m p o s i s i s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : g i r o sebesa r R p 4 . 8 3 7 m i l y a r d ( 1 4 , 2 % ) , d e p o s i t o sebesa r R p 2 . 5 0 3 m i l y a f ( 1 7 , 8 % ) d a n t a b u n g a n sebesa r R p 5 9 2 , 4 m i l y a r ( 1 1 , 2 % ) .

D i s e k t o r p e r k r e d i t a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r k r e d i t a n y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a p e r i o d e J a n u a r i - M e i 1 9 8 4 ( t a b e l 8 ) a d a i a b sebesa r 7 , 8 % , y a i t u d a r i R p 1 5 . 5 2 8 m i l y a r m e n j a d i R p 1 6 . 7 5 2 m i l y a r . A n g k a t e r s e b u t a d a i a b l e b i b b e s a r d a r i a n g k a y a n g t e r c a p a i s e l a m a D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 2 - D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 3 , y a i t u s ebesa r 5 , 2 % , d e n g a n n i l a i k r e d i t t o t a l s ebesa r R p 1 3 . 0 2 2 m i l y a r ( D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 2 ) m e n j a d i R p 1 3 . 7 0 5 m i l y a r ( D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 3 ) . P e r k e m b a n g a n p e r k r e d i t a n s ebesa r 7 , 8 % s e l a m a p e r i o d e J a n u a r i — M e i 1 9 8 4 t e r u t a m a d i s e b a b k a n o l e b k e n a i k a n - k e n a i k a n j u m l a b p i n j a m a n s e k t o r a l y a n g d i c a p a i s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t , y a i t u + 2 1 , 9 % ( p e r t a n i a n ) , + 2 3 , 3 % ( p e r i n d u s t r i a n ) , + 1 7 , 5 % ( j a s a - j a s a ) , d a n 1 8 , 4 % ( I a i n - l a i n ) . M e s k i p u n , p a d a p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a d i d u a s e k t o r , y a i t u p e r t a m b a n g a n d a n p e r d a g a n g a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n p i n j a m a n p e r b a n k a n m e n u n j u k k a n a n g k a - a n g k a m i n u s , y a i t u - 2 3 , 9 % ( p e r t a m b a n g a n )


d a n — 7 , 7 % ( p e r d a g a n g a n ) . P e r k e m b a n g a n n e g a t i f t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i l i b a t p a d a m e n u r u n n y a a n g k a - a n g k a p i n j a m a n d i k e d u a s e k t o r t e r s e b u t , y a i t u R p 8 0 7 m i l y a r ( J a n u a r i 1 9 8 4 ) m e n j a d i R p 6 1 4 m i l y a r ( M e i 1 9 8 4 ) u n t u k s e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n , d a n R p 5 . 1 3 2 m i l y a r ( J a n u a r i 1 9 8 4 ) m e n j a d i R p 4 . 7 3 3 m i l y a r u n t u k s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n . K a l a u d i l i b a t s i f a t - s i f a t p e r k e m b a n g a n n y a s e j a k t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , k e d u a s e k t o r p e r k r e d i t a n t e r s e b u t m e m a n g t e l a b m e n u n j u k k a n g e j a l a - g e j a l a y a n g s a m a . S e l a m a p e r i o d e D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 2 - D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 3 , p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r k r e d i t a n d i s e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n m e n u n j u k k a n a n g k a - 1 7 , 4 % . D i s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n a n g k a y a n g t e r c a p a i s e l a m a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t a d a i a b s e b e s a r 0 , 1 % . P e r t u m b u b a n n e g a t i f y a n g t e r j a d i p a d a k e g i a t a n p e r k r e d i t a n d i d u a s e k t o r t e r s e b u t u n t u k b u l a n - b u l a n y a n g a k a n d a t a n g p e r l u d i a m a t i d e n g a n b a t i - b a t i , s e b a b k e d u a s e k t o r i n i m e m i l i k i p e r a n a n y a n g s a n g a t b e r a r t i d i d a l a m p r o s e s p e m b e n t u k a n p e n d a p a t a n m a s y a r a k a t p a d a t a b u n - t a b u n y a n g l a l u , s e b i n g g a a k a n m e n i m b u l k a n i m p l i k a s i - i m p l i k a s i e k o n o m i y a n g c u k u p b e r a r t i p a d a p e r t u m b u b a n s e k t o r p r o d u k s i m a s y a r a k a t d i k e d u a s e k t o r t e r s e b u t .

S e m e n t a r a i t u , p e r k e m b a n g a n K I K / K M K P s a m p a i d e n g a n k u a r t a l 1 1 9 8 4 m e n u n j u k k a n p e n u r u n a n b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n a n g k a y a n g d i c a p a i p a d a k u a r t a l 1 t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , y a i t u - 3 % ( M a r e t 1 9 8 3 ) m e n j a d i - 6 , 5 % ( M a r e t 1 9 8 4 ) u n t u k K I K d a n 8 , 5 % ( M a r e t 1 9 8 3 ) m e n j a d i 6 , 3 % ( M a r e t 1 9 8 4 ) . K a r e n a K I K / K M K P i n i a d a i a b m e r u p a k a n c e r m i n a n k e a d a a n g o l o n g a n t e r b e s a r p e n g u s a b a I n d o n e s i a , m a k a p e n u r u n a n K I K / K M K P y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a k u a r t a l 1 t a b u n 1 9 8 4 d a p a t d i p a k a i s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r y a n g m e n g g a m b a r k a n m e n u r u n n y a k e g i a t a n p e r m o d a l a n d a r i p a r a p e n g u s a b a l e m a b . B i l a d i l i b a t p e r k e m b a n g a n n y a s e l a m a k u a r t a l 1 1 9 8 4 , m a k a s e l a m a J a n u a r i - M a r e t 1 9 8 4 , K I K m e n g e n d a p p a d a j u m l a b s ebesa r R p 3 8 7 m i l y a r , s e d a n g K M K P m e n i n g k a t s ebesa r 1 , 5 2 % . D e n g a n a n g k a p e r t a m b a b a n y a n g s a n g a t r e n d a b i t u , s u b t d i p e r k i r a k a n a p a k a b p e r k e m b a n g a n K I K / K M K P p a d a t i g a k u a r t a l l a i n n y a s e l a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 4 i n i d a p a t m e n c a p a i - t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u b a n s e p e r t i y a n g d i c a p a i p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 y a n g l a l u .

M e n g i n g a t t e m a " p e m e r a t a a n " m a s i b m e r u p a k a n t e m a s e n t r a l d a r i p a d a p e r u m u s a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i p a d a e r a P e l i t a I V i n i , m a k a b e r b a g a i b a m b a t a n y a n g m u n g k i n m e n j a d i p e n y e b a b m e n u r u n n y a k e g i a t a n i n v e s t a s i k a l a n g a n t e r b e s a r p e n g u s a b a d i n e g a r a k i t a p e r l u d i a t a s i . K b u s u s n y a , p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g l e b i b r e n d a b d i m a n a P e m e r i n t a b i n g i n d a p a t m e n y e n t u b p e r t u m b u b a n " t b e g ras s r o o t l e v e l " m a s y a r k a t .

E K I . V o l . X X X n , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4

: S * * - - f

135

Tabel 6 Perkembangan Dana Perbankan (mUyar rupiah)

K e n a i k a n M e i M e i K e n a i k a n S u m b e r - d a n a D e s ' 8 3 D c s ' 8 4 % 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 %

G i r o 4 . 1 8 7 4 . 2 3 6 1 4 . 1 9 6 4 . 8 3 7 1 5 , 3 D e p o s i t o 9 0 8 , 4 2 . 1 2 5 , 8 1 3 4 9 1 1 , 8 2 . 5 0 3 , 5 * 1 7 4 , 5 T a b u n g a n 4 4 6 , 2 5 3 2 , 8 1 9 , 3 4 6 8 , 5 5 9 2 , 4 2 6 , 4

T o t a l 5 . 5 4 1 , 6 6 . 8 9 4 , 6 2 4 , 4 5 . 5 7 6 , 3 7 . 9 3 2 , 9 4 2 , 2

S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , L a p o r a n M i n g g u a n , N o . 1 3 0 9 , 7 J u n i 1 9 8 4 * A n g k a u n t u k b u l a n A p r i l 1 9 8 4 .

Tabel 7. Perkembangan Kredit Perbankan Menurut Sektor Ekonomi (milyar rupiah)

K e n a i k a n J a n ' 8 4 M e i ' 8 4 K e n a i k a n S e k t o r E k o n o m i D e s ' 8 3 D e s ' 8 4 ( % ) ( % )

P e r t a n i a n 1 . 0 2 5 1 . 1 5 4 1 2 , 6 1 . 2 2 6 1 . 4 9 5 2 1 , 9 ,

P e r t a m b a n g a n 1 . 4 7 2 1 . 2 1 5 - 1 7 , 4 8 0 7 6 1 4 - 2 3 , 9

P e r i n d u s t r i a n 4 . 7 1 7 5 . 4 1 5 1 4 , 8 6 . 0 0 5 7 . 4 0 2 2 3 , 3

P e r d a g a n g a n 4 . 1 2 9 4 . 1 3 5 0 , 1 5 . 1 3 2 4 . 7 4 4 - 7 , 7

J a s a - j a s a 1 . 0 4 6 1 . 0 8 9 4 , 1 1 . 4 2 5 1 . 6 7 4 1 7 , 5

L a i n - l a i n 6 3 3 6 9 7 1 0 , 1 7 0 4 8 3 4 1 8 , 4

J u m l a b 1 3 . 0 2 2 1 3 . 7 0 5 5 , 2 1 5 . 5 2 8 1 6 . 7 5 2 7 , 8

S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , L a p o r a n M i n g g u a n , N o . 1 3 0 9 , 7 J u n i 1 9 8 4 .

Tabel 8. Peikembangan KIK/KMKP (milyar rupiah)

D e s ' 8 2 D e s ' 8 3 K e n a i k a n M a r ' 8 3 M a r ' 8 4 K e n a i k a n ( % ) ( % )

K I K 4 0 5 3 9 3 - 3 4 1 4 3 8 7 - 6 , 5

K M K P 7 9 1 8 5 8 8 , 5 8 1 5 8 6 7 6 , 3

S u m b e r : B a n k I n d o n e s i a , L a p o r a n M i n g g u a n , N o . 1 3 0 9 , 7 J u n i 1 9 8 4

136 E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4

Laju Inflasi dan Perkembangan Harga

Laju Inflasi

L a j u i n f l a s i y a n g t e r j a d i s e l a m a b u l a n J a n u a r i s a m p a i M a r e t 1 9 8 4 t e r c a t a t seb e s a r 6 , 6 1 % . K e n a i k a n t e r s e b u t s e b a g i a n besa r d i s e b a b k a n o l e b t e r j a d i n y a k e n a i k a n I H K G a b u n g a n 1 7 K o t a d i I n d o n e s i a u n t u k p e r u m a b a n s ebesa r 1 1 . 1 7 % d i s u s u l o l e b I H K A n e k a sebesa r 8 , 2 8 % d a n I H K M a k a n a n sebe sar 3,96%>. S e m e n t a r a i t u I H K G a b u n g a n 1 7 K o t a u n t u k S a n d a n g t e r l i b a t m e n g e n d a p p a d a a n g k a sebesa r 0 , 7 8 ' ; ? .

B i l a d i l i b a t p e r k e m b a n g a n i n f l a s i s e l a m a b u l a n M a r e t d a n A p r i l 1 9 8 4 , b a n y a I H K u n t u k A n e k a t e l a h m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n t a j a m , y a i t u s ebesa r 4 , 6 % .

I H K l a i n n y a , y a i t u M a k a n a n , S a n d a n g d a n P e r u m a b a n b a n y a m e r a m b a t d e n g a n k e c e p a t a n y a n g s a n g a t m o d e r a t . y a i t u s ebesa r 0 , 2 8 % , 0 , 2 7 % d a n 0 , 6 7 % . H a l i n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a p e n g a r u h k e n a i k a n B B M y a n g t e r j a d i p a d a m i n g g u k e d u a b u l a n J a n u a r i 1 9 8 4 y a n g l a l u t e r b a d a p k e n a i k a n b a r g a s u d a b m u l a i b e r k u r a n g , k e c u a l i u n t u k I H K A n e k a .

D i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n a n g k a i n f l a s i u n t u k b u l a n J a n u a r i — A p r i l t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , m a k a i n f l a s i u n t u k b u l a n y a n g s a m a p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 4 m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n y a n g k u r a n g l e b i b s a m a , y a i t u 6 , 5 6 % t e r b a d a p 6 , 6 1 % . N a m u n u n t u k a n g k a i n f l a s i k e l o m p o k , a n g k a - a n g k a i n f l a s i u n t u k k e l o m p o k M a k a n a n d a n P e r u m a b a n t e l a b m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n l e b i b t a j a m p a d a b u l a n J a n u a r i -A p r i l 1 9 8 4 d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b u l a n y a n g s a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , y a i t u 3 , 9 6 % t e r b a d a p l , 1 7 % , d a n 1 1 , 7 % t e r b a d a p 1 0 , 8 6 % . S e m e n t a r a i t u , I H K S a n d a n g d a n A n e k a m e n u n j u k k a n a n g k a i n f l a s i y a n g l e b i b r e n d a b , y a i t u 0 , 7 8 % t e r b a d a p 1 , 3 7 % , d a n 8 , 2 8 % t e r b a d a p 1 4 , 0 0 % .

P e n g a l a m a n d i m a s a - m a s a y a n g l a l u m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a u m u m n y a t e r j a d i g e j o l a k k e n a i k a n I H K p a d a saa t - saa t m e n j e l a n g L e b a r a n , s e b i n g g a d a p a t d i p e r k i r a k a n m e m a s u k i k u a r t a l I I I t a b u n 1 9 8 4 i n i , a k a n t e r j a d i k e n a i k a n -k e n a i k a n b a r g a y a n g c u k u p b e r a r t i .

Peikembangan Hai^a 'i

P e r k e m b a n g a n b a r g a - b a r g a d i t a n d a i d e n g a n k e n a i k a n i n d e k s b a r g a 9 b a b a n p o k o k d i d a e r a b p e d e s a a n s e l a m a b u l a n J a n u a r i — P e b r u a r i s ebesa r 0 , 2 2 % u n t u k J a w a — M a d u r a , d a n 7 , 4 8 % u n t u k L u a r J a w a . K e n a i k a n a n g k a i n d e k s t e r s e b u t s e j a l a n d e n g a n k e n a i k a n i n d e k s y a n g d i b a y a r p e t a n i s e l a m a p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a sebesa r 1 , 1 % u n t u k J a w a B a r a t , 1 , 9 % u n t u k J a w a T e n g a b d a n 3 , 7 % u n t u k J a w a T i m u r .

D i s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n b e s a r , a n g k a i n d e k s m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n seb e s a r 0 , 5 1 % u n t u k i n d e k s u m u m , 0 5 7 % u n t u k i n d e k s u m u m t a n p a m i n y a k

E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4 137

b u m i d a n 0 , 6 1 % u n t u k i n d e k s u m u m t a n p a s e k t o r e k s p o r m i n y a k b u m i . S e m e n t a r a i t u p e r k e m b a n g a n i n d e k s p e r d a g a n g a n b e s a r u n t u k s e k t o r -

s e k t o r b a b a n b a n g u n a n / k o n s t r u k s i m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n s ebesa r 1 , 2 % . D a r i p e n g a m a t a n d a p a t d i l i b a t b a b w a k e n a i k a n a n g k a i n d e k s p e r d a g a n g a n b e s a r d a r i b a b a n b a n g u n a n / k o n s t r u k s i i t u t e r n y a t a d i b a g i s a m a k u a t a n t a r a k e l o m p o k b a n g u n a n t e m p a t t i n g g a l ( 1 , 2 % ) , b a n g u n a n b u k a n t e m p a t t i n g g a l ( 1 , 2 % ) , p e k e r j a a n u m u m u n t u k p e r t a n i a n ( 2 , 1 % ) , p e k e r j a a n u m u m u n t u k j a l a n - j a l a n d a n j e m b a t a n ( 1 , 5 % ) , l i s t r i k d a n t r a n s m i s i n y a ( 0 , 7 6 % ) , b a n g u n a n k o n t r u k s i l a i n n y a ( 0 , 9 % ) , d a n p e r b a i k a n - p e r b a i k a n b a n g u n a n ( 1 , 5 % ) .

D i s e k t o r i n d u s t r i , s e l a m a p e r i o d e p e n g a m a t a n y a n g s a m a , a n g k a i n d e k s b a r a n g - b a r a n g i m p o r m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n s ebesa r 1 , 5 4 % , s e d a n g i n d e k s e k s p o r m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : 0 , 8 % ( i n d e k s u m u m ) , 3 , 2 3 % ( i n d e k s u m u m t a n p a m i n y a k b u m i ) d a n 0 , 1 7 % ( i n d e k s e k s p o r m i n y a k b u m i ) .

S e l e b i b n y a , a n g k a i n d e k s p e r d a g a n g a n b e s a r p e r s e k t o r m e n u n j u k k a n k e n a i k a n - k e n a i k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : 2 , 2 % ( s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n ) , 2 , 8 6 % ( s e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n d a n p e n g g a l i a n ) , 6 , 3 4 % ( s e k t o r i n d u s t r i ) . I n d e k s u m u m d a r i s e k t o r p e r d a g a n g a n b e s a r i n i s e l a m a p e r i o d e p e n g a m a t a n y a n g s a m a t e l a b m e n i n g k a t s ebesa r 2 , 3 5 % .

Tabel 10

' • ' Indeks Haiga Konsumen Gabungan 17 Kota di Indonesia Menurut Kelompok Pengeluaran .

(April 1977 - Maret 1978 = 100)

T a h u n / B u l a n M a k a n a n P e r u m a b a n S a n d a n g A n e k a U m u m

( ! ) ( 2 ) ( 3 ) ( 4 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 )

1 9 8 4 : J a n u a r i 2 1 9 . 7 7 2 5 0 . 6 3 2 1 4 . 4 9 2 2 7 . 1 7 2 2 9 . 1 1 P e b r u a r i 2 2 2 . 6 3 2 5 9 . 9 1 2 1 4 . 9 0 2 2 7 . 7 2 2 3 2 . 9 1 M a r e t 2 2 0 . 5 4 2 6 3 . 8 8 2 1 5 . 1 4 2 2 9 . 7 7 2 3 3 . 4 2 A p r U 2 2 1 . 1 6 2 6 5 . 6 4 2 1 5 . 7 2 2 4 0 . 3 4 2 3 6 . 4 8 M e i 2 2 4 . 2 7 2 1 6 . 0 3 2 1 6 . 0 3 2 4 0 . 8 7 2 3 8 . 0 2

S u m b e r : B P S , B u l e t i n R i n g k a s , M e i 1 9 8 4 .

-• - A .

1 3 8 E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , June 1 9 8 4

T a b e l 1 1

I n d d c s H a r g a K o n s u m e n G a b u n g a n 1 7 K o t a d a n P e r u b a h a n n y a M e n u m t K e l o m p o k d a n S u b K e l o m p o k B a r a n g K o n s u m s i

( A p r i l 1 9 7 7 - M a r e t 1 9 7 8 = 1 0 0 )

Kelompok/Sub Kelompok % Perubahan Kumulatif % Perubahan

Barang Konsumsi Mei 1984 '^trhadap Tahun Kalender Tahun Anggaran AprU 1984 Jan-Mei '83 Jan-Mei '84 Apr-Mei '83 Apr-Mei '84

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Indeks Umum 238.02 0.65 7.43 7.26 3.30 1.96 I . Makanan 224.27 1.41 2.75 5.37 4.29 1.69

II . Perumaban 265.88 0.09 11.35 11.26 2.44 0.76

II I . Sandang 216.03 0.14 2.04 0.92 2.24 0.41

IV. Aneka Barang & Jasa 240.87 0.22 14.18 8.50 3.02 4.82

Sumber: BPS, Bulletin Ringkas, Mei 1984.

T a b e l 1 2 ' "

L a j u I n f l a s i G a b u n g a n 1 7 K o t a T n d o n e s i a

M e n u r u t T a h u n K a l e n d e r d a n T a h u n A n g g a r a n

Tahun Kalender Tahun Anggaran Kelompok — f t

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984l> 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 j ,gg „ g j j^g^ 1983 1984 1985

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13)

Umum 21.77 15.97 7.09

I . Makanan 22.37 16.25 7.99

I I . Perumaban 17.04 18.28 7.74

II I . Sandang 29.67 12.70 3.81

IV. Aneka 18.38 14.62 5.92

9.69 11.46 7.26 19.13

7.29 10.04 5.37 18.68

14.33 12.91 11.26 19.64

3.39 4.31 0.92 25.88

11.79 16.29 8.50 16.09

15.85 9.80 8.40 12.63 1.96

17.77 6.13 3.48 15.26 1.69

16.01 15.52 13.64 14.50 0,76

10.43 3.81 2.14 5.02 0.41

15.03 13.05 14.07 8.81 4.82

Catalan: 1). Dihitung sejak Januari s/d Mei 1984 2). Dihitung sejak April s/d Mei 1984.

Sumber: BPS, Buletin Ringkas, Mei 1984.


Tabel 13 Laju Inflasi 17 Kota Di Indonesia (April 1977 - Maret 1978 = 100)

T a h u n K a l e n d e r

C a t a l a n : 1 ) D i h i t u n g J a n u a r i s / d M e i 1 9 8 4 . 2 ) D i h i t u n g s e j a k A p r i l s / d M e i 1 9 8 4

S u m b e r : B P S , B u l e t i n R i n g k a s , M e i 1 9 8 4 .

T a h u n A n g g a r a n IS. u I a -

1 9 8 3 1 A

1 9 8 4 ^ ^ 1 9 8 2 / 1 9 8 3

1 9 8 3 / 1 9 8 4

1 9 8 4 / 2 ] 1 9 8 5

1 . M e d a n 1 0 . 9 0 8 . 0 1 8 . 9 0 1 2 . 9 8 2 . 3 8 2 . P a d a n g 1 4 . 0 4 5 . 1 7 " A -JC

9 . 7 5 1 2 . 8 0 - 0 - . 3 2

3 . P a l e m b a n g 1 4 . 2 2 C I O

5 . 1 8 A A c

9 . 0 5 1 A A O I t Ay

A l l

— 0 . 3 2 4 . J a k a r t a 1 A 1 A

1 0 . 7 0 A C 1

9 . 5 1 7 . 7 2 1 1 C O

1 2 . 6 8 1 1 A

2 . 3 9 5 . B a n d u n g 1 3 . 3 0 4 . 8 6 1 A 1 O

1 0 . 1 8 1 1 o c

1 2 . 8 5 A AO

0 . 9 8 6 . S e m a r a n g 9 . 4 9 4 . 6 3 1 0 . 3 1 9 . 4 7 1 . 9 5 7 . Y o g y a k a r t a 1 2 . 6 7 6 . 3 0 8 . 3 1 1 4 . 6 7 1 . 0 4 8 . S u r a b a y a 1 2 . 1 0 6 . 4 2 8 . 1 8 1 3 . 3 0 2 . 4 1 9 . D e n p a s a r 9 . 9 4 1 3 . 2 7 1 3 . 9 9 9 . 6 2 4 . 9 3

1 0 . M a t a r a m 9 . 1 8 5 . 1 6 1 1 . 0 3 7 . 2 9 1 . 7 3 1 1 . K u p a n g 6 . 7 9 5 . 5 9 1 1 . 8 9 4 . 2 9 1 . 4 8 1 2 . P o n t i a n a k 1 2 . 9 1 6 . 1 7 9 . 0 4 1 2 . 2 9 1 . 1 4 1 3 . B a n j a r m a s i n 1 2 . 4 8 5 . 5 5 5 . 4 1 1 4 . 6 2 1 . 5 9 1 4 . M a n a d o 1 1 . 6 5 9 . 6 6 8 . 1 3 1 2 . 0 4 5 . 0 2 1 5 . U j u n g P a n d a n g 8 . 6 9 6 . 4 3 5 . 2 2 1 0 . 4 8 1 . 4 0 1 6 . A m b o n 1 9 . 5 6 6 . 5 1 1 0 . 5 9 1 9 . 8 9 1 . 6 2 1 7 . J a y a p u r a 1 5 . 4 2 1 . 1 4 1 7 . 7 0 7 . 9 4 - 0 . 9 7

N a s l o n a l 1 1 . 4 6 7 . 2 6 8 . 4 0 1 2 . 6 3 1 . 9 6

,2>¥-


T a b e l 1 4 H a i g a B e b e r a p a B a r a n g E k s p o r T e r t e n t u D i P a s a r D u n i a

Karet Karet Kopi Kopra (New York) (Singapura)

R S S - I R S S - I l R S S - I I I SIR-20 R S S - I R S S - I I R S S - I I I SSR-20 Robusta Lampung

CIP C I P C I P rdnrvfi mi ml loingapuiaj

\1>CW I UIK.) (Manila) C I P

us$ us$ USS USS Sin.S Sin.S Sin.S Sin.S Sin.S /picul '•'

USS USS cent/lb cent/lb cent/lb cent/lb cent/kg cent/kg cent/kg cent/kg

Sin.S /picul '•' cent/lb /I.ton

1983 Januari 42 1/2 42 41 1/7 37 5/8 170.50 167.50 167.00 156.00 302 1/2 126.10 310 pebruari 51 1/4 40 1/4 49 46 203.50 193.50 191.50 181.00 292 1/2 125.50 322 1/2 Maret 54 3/4 52 1/2 51 1/2 51 1/2 235.50 213.50 210.00 199.50 292 1/2 124.25 350 April 57 54 52 46 1/4 241.50 220.00 216.00 206.00 332 1/2 124.50 400 Mei 54 53 52 44 222.00 215.00 211.00 201.00 332 1/2 132.00 480 , Juni 56 3/8 55 53 3/4 46 3/4 237.00 238.00 224.00 214.50 332 1/2 124.10 455 ,' JuU 57 3/4 57 56 47 1/4 241.50 231.50 227.50 217.50 342 1/2 127.60 645 Agustus 56 1/2 56 1/4 55 46 238.50 232.00 228.00 220.00 362 1/2 131.75 640 September 54 3/4 54 52 3/4 45 230.50 225.75 221.75 213.75 362 1/2 133.60 640 Oktober 55 5/8 55 1/4 54 1/8 46 1/2 234.00 231.75 227.75 219.75 437 1/2 143.54 580 November 55 1/2 56 55 1/4 47 3/4 240.00 236.75 232.75 224.25 477 1/2 150.70 610 Desember 56 1/4 55 3/4 54 1/2 46 1/4 236.25 232.50 228.50 220.00 487 1/2 140.20 695

1984 Januari 58 57 . 56 47 1/2 244.75 238.50 234.50 226.00 487 1/2 142.50 725 pebruari 57 1/4 56 1/4 55 1/4 48 3/4 240.00 234.25 230.25 221.75 487 1/2 147.30 Maret 54 1/4 54 53 1/2 48 223.25 222.50 218.50 214.00 487 1/2 148.30 April 54 1/4 52 1/2 52 48 1/4 225.50 218.75 214.75 209.50 487 1/2 151.50 Mei- I 50 3/4 50 1/4 49 1/4 47 1/2 210.00 208.50 204.50 202.50 487 1/2 152.43 Mei- II 50 3/4 50 1/2 49 1/4 47 1/2 213.00 212.50 208.00 204.50 487 1/2 152.30 Mei- III 50 1/4 49 3/4 48 47 1/2 210.00 208.75 204.75 204.00 487 1/2 152.25 Mei- IV 48 1/2 48 1/4 47 1/4 46 196.50 196.50 192.50 197.50 487 1/2 154.80

1) Angka mingguan terakbir sebagai angka bulanan. 2) Sejak Mei 1980 dalam Sin.S/100 kg. Sumber; a. Daily Market Quotations (Antara)

b. Rubber (Antara). Sumber: BPS.

Masalah Khusus K e b i j a k s a n a a n p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a s e j a k a w a l t a b u n l a l u , d i t e n g a b p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a y a n g m a s i b b e l u m m e n e n t u , t e l a b m e n d a p a t p e n i l a i a n y a n g b a i k o l e b B a n k D u n i a m a u p u n I M F . T i n d a k a n d i b i d a n g p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a t e r s e b u t b e r u p a d e v a l u a s i m a t a u a n g r u p i a b t e r b a d a p d o l l a r A S , l i b e r a l i s a s i p e r b a n k a n , s e r t a p e n j a d w a l a n k e m b a l i b e b e r a p a p r o y e k b e s a r . S e l a i n i t u , s e b a g a i k e l a n j u t a n " p e n g e t a t a n i k a t p i n g g a n g " d i l a k u k a n p e n g i r i t -a n p e n g e l u a r a n r u t i n d e n g a n p e n g u r a n g a n s u b s i d i B B M d a n s u b s i d i p a n g a n , s e r t a u n t u k m e n y e b a t k a n seg i p e n e r i m a a n d i p e r k e n a l k a n p e r a t u r a n p e r p a j a k a n y a n g b a r u .

A t a s p e n i l a i a n y a n g b a i k i t u , m a k a s i d a n g I G G I k e - 2 7 y a n g b e r l a n g s u n g t a n g g a l : 4 - 5 J u n i 1 9 8 4 , d i D e n H a a g , N e g e r i B e l a n d a , m e m b u a b k a n b a s i l b e r u p a k e p u t u s a n m e m b e r i b a n t u a n sebesa r 2 , 4 5 9 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S k e p a d a I n d o n e s i a . B a n t u a n t e r s e b u t l e b i b b e s a r 0 , 2 1 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S a t a u n a i k 9 , 7 8 % b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a y a n g b e s a r n y a b a n y a 2 , 2 4 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S . K o m p o s i s i b a n t u a n k a l i i n i b e r u p a b a n t u a n b i l a t e r a l b e r j u m l a b U S S 6 9 5 , 2 9 j u t a d a n b a n t u a n m u l t i l a t e r a l b e r j u m l a b U S S 1 . 7 6 4 , 4 j u t a . S e d a n g k a n p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 k o m p o s i s i n y a a d a i a b b a n t u a n b i l a t e r a l seb a n y a k U S S 5 7 3 , 9 1 j u t a , s e r t a b a n t u a n m u l t i l a t e r a l b e r j u m l a b U S S 1 . 6 6 7 , 5 j u t a . I n i b e r a r t i b a b w a p e n i n g k a t a n b a n t u a n b i l a t e r a l , s e c a r a p e r s e n t a s e , l e b i b t i n g g i b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n j u m l a h b a n t u a n d a r i s u m b e r d a n a m u l t i l a t e r a l .

K a l a u d i p e r b a t i k a n , t e r d a p a t p e r g e s e r a n j u m l a b b a n t u a n y a n g d i b e r i k a n o l e b n e g a r a - n e g a r a d o n o r d a l a m t a b u n i n i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n sebel u m n y a , y a n g d i s e b a b k a n a n t a r a l a i n o l e b p e r k e m b a n g a n d i d a l a m n e g e r i m a s i n g - m a s i n g . N e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g m e n u r u n k a n b a n t u a n n y a t a b u n i n i i a l a b : - A u s t r a l i a d a r i U S S 4 0 , 7 j u t a t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a m e n j a d i U S S 3 9 , 8 5 j u t a , B e l g i a d a r i U S S 6 , 9 8 j u t a m e n j a d i U S S 6 , 4 2 j u t a , K a n a d a d a r i U S S 3 2 , 4 1 j u t a m e n j a d i U S S 3 0 , 8 9 j u t a , d a n N e g e r i B e l a n d a t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a s ebesa r U S S 5 6 , 1 3 j u t a t u r u n m e n j a d i U S S 5 3 , 2 0 j u t a . S e b a l i k n y a , P e r a n c i s y a n g m e r u p a k a n k a m p i u m p e m b e l a n e g a r a - n e g a r a s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g m e n i n g k a t k a n b a n t u a n n y a d a r i U S S 5 0 , 9 7 j u t a p a d a t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a m e n j a d i U S S 5 1 , 1 8 j u t a , d a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a r i U S S 1 0 6 , 1 6 j u t a m e n j a d i U S S 1 1 5 j u t a p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 4 .

D i l u a r i t u d i b a r a p k a n b a n t u a n b i l a t e r a l y a n g t e r b e s a r d a t a n g d a r i J e p a n g s e k i t a r U S S 3 2 1 , 2 7 j u t a . S e d a n g k a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a l a i n y a n g m e m b e r i -k a n b a n t u a n b i l a t e r a l a d a i a b J e r m a n B a r a t s e b e s a r U S S 3 7 , 5 2 j u t a , I t a l i a seb a n y a k U S S 3 0 j u t a , s e r t a I n g g r i s d a n S w i s s d e n g a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g s ebesa r U S S 5 , 8 6 j u t a d a n U S S 4 , 1 j u t a u n t u k t a b u n i n i .

142 E K I . V o l . X X X I I , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 8 4

S e m e n t a r a i t u , b a n t u a n m u l t i l a t e r a l d a r i B a n k D u n i a t a m p a k n y a t e t a p b e r t a b a n p a d a a n g k a U S S 1 . 2 0 0 j u t a s e p e r t i t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . D i l u a r B a n k P e m b a n g u n a n A s i a y a n g m e n i n g k a t k a n b a n t u a n n y a d a r i U S S 4 0 0 j u t a p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 m e n j a d i U S S 5 0 0 j u t a p a d a t a b u n i n i , b a d a n - b a d a n m a u p u n o r -g a n i s a s i - o r g a n i s a s i i n t e r n a s i o n a l l a i n n y a t a m p a k c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n k a n j u m l a b b a n t u a n n y a . U N D P y a n g p a d a t a b u n 1 9 8 3 m e m b e r i b a n t u a n sebesa r U S S 3 9 j u t a , t a b u n i n i b a n y a U S S 3 8 j u t a . D e m i k i a n p u l a m a s y a r a k a t E k o n o m i E r o p a t a b u n i n i b a n y a a k a n m e m b e r i b a n t u a n s ebesa r U S S 1 4 j u t a , s e d a n g k a n t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a U S S 1 6 j u t a . D a n , d a l a m j u m l a b p e n u r u n a n y a n g k e c i l U N I C E F m e m b e r i b a n t u a n t a b u n i n i s ebesa r U S S 1 2 , 4 j u t a , s e d a n g k a n t a b u n y a n g l a l u s e b a n y a k U S S 1 2 , 5 j u t a .

D a r i u r a i a n b a s i l S i d a n g I G G I k e - 2 7 d i a t a s , y a n g w a l a u p u n d a l a m s u a s a n a p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a y a n g m a s i b d i t a n d a i k e l e s u a n n a m u n t e t a p m e m b u a b k a n b a s i l b e r u p a p e r t a m b a b a n b a n t u a n , m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a s a m p a i s aa t i n i n e g a r a - n e g a r a d o n o r t e r s e b u t m a s i b m e n a r u b k e p e r c a y a a n y a n g c u k u p k u a t t e r b a d a p I n d o n e s i a . K e p e r c a y a a n i n i t e r u t a m a d i d u k u n g o l e b k e b e r b a s i l a n I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k a t k a n p e n d a p a t a n p e t a n i k e c i l d a l a m R e p e l i t a -R e p e l i t a s e b e l u m n y a , d a n k e b e r b a s i l a n d i b i d a n g m a k r o - e k o n o m i l a i n n y a sep e r t i p e n u r u n a n d e f i s i t t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a l a m n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n s ebesa r 8 , 4 % d a r i P D B d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 / 8 3 m e n j a d i b a n y a s e b a n y a k 6 % p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 3 / 8 4 .

M e n g i n g a t b a b w a p e r a n a n d a n a p i n j a m a n d a r i l u a r m a s i b d i p e r l u k a n p a d a t a b u n - t a b u n m e n d a t a n g u n t u k m e n u n j a n g k e l a n c a r a n p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g a k a n d i c a p a i m a k a k e p e r c a y a a n i t u b a r u s d i j a g a . P e l a k s a n a a n d a r i b a n -t u a n - b a n t u a n l u a r n e g e r i i n i p e r l u d i p e r b a t i k a n s e c a r a s e k s a m a d i m a s a - m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g , s e b i n g g a k e b e r b a s i l a n y a n g t e l a b d i c a p a i d a p a t d i p e r t a b a n k a n b a b k a n s e y o g y a n y a d i t i n g k a t k a n . M a s a l a b s t a g n a s i k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , m a s a l a b t r a n s m i g r a s i , m a u p u n s e m a k i n b a n y a k n y a w a n i t a y a n g m a s u k d a l a m a n g k a t a n k e r j a m e r u p a k a n c o n t o b - c o n t o b m a s a l a b d a l a m e r a p e m b a n g u n a n m e n d a t a n g y a n g b a r u s d a p a t d i s e l e s a i k a n d e n g a n b a i k .

D a r i s e g i b a n t u a n i t u s e n d i r i , u s a b a - u s a b a o p t i m a l i s a s i p e n d a y a g u n a a n b u t a n g - b u t a n g l u a r n e g e r i y a n g d i d a p a t p e r l u t e t a p d i p e r t a b a n k a n . O l e b k a r e n a i t u m a s a l a b a d m i n i s t r a s i p e l a k s a n a a n d a n p e n g a t u r a n b a n t u a n t e r s e b u t s e w a j a r n y a s e l a l u m e n d a p a t p e r b a t i a n y a n g s e r i u s . M e s k i p u n k e p e r c a y a a n d u n i a l u a r a t a s k e m a m p u a n I n d o n e s i a u n t u k m e m b a y a r k e m b a l i b u t a n g -b u t a n g n y a c u k u p b a i k , n a m u n b e n d a k n y a b a l i n i j a n g a n m e m b u a t k i t a t e r -l e n a . P r o y e k - p r o y e k b e s a r d i t a n a b a i r y a n g p e r n a b d i j a d w a l k a n k e m b a l i p e m b a n g u n a n n y a ( r e p b a s i n g ) p a d a b u l a n M e i t a b u n l a l u b e n d a k n y a t i d a k t e r b u r u u n t u k d i l a n j u t k a n k e m b a l i , s e b a b k e g i a t a n i n i m e m p u n y a i e f e k t e r -

E K I . V o l . X X X I I , No. 2, J u n e 1 9 8 4 1 4 3

h a d a p p e n g g u n a a n d e v i s a d a n a k a n m e m p e n g a r u h i n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n . S e b a g a i m a n a d i k e t a b u i b a b w a k e b i j a k s a n a a n b u l a n M e i t a b u n l a l u t e r s e b u t t e l a b b e r b a s i l m e n e k a n d i f i s i t n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n m e n j a d i 6 , 5 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S d a r i y a n g d i p e r k i r a k a n s e m u l a sebesa r 1 0 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S . D a n . p a d a a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 3 t e r d a p a t c a d a n g a n d e v i s a sebesa r 3 m i l y a r d o l l a r A S .

S e l a i n i t u , p e n i n g k a t a n d e v i s a m e l a l u i e k s p o r n o n - m i g a s b a r u s s e l a l u d i u s a b a k a n a g a r c a d a n g a n d e v i s a t e t a p s e b a t . T a m p a k n y a , s e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n t e t a p m a s i b m e r u p a k a n t u l a n g p u n g g u n g p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a . P e r t u m b u b a n e k o n o m i y a n g m e y a k i n k a n , k e l i b a t a n n y a m a s i b b a n y a k d i t o p a n g o l e b s e k t o r p e r t a m b a n g a n , k b u s u s n y a L N G , d i m a s a m e n d a t a n g . • , , : ,

P e r h i t u n g a n y a n g l e b i b c e r m a t d e n g a n m e m p e r b a t i k a n t i t i k - t i t i k k e -l e m a b a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d a l a m n e g e r i d a n m e n g a r a b k a n p o t e n s i y a n g a d a sec a r a t e p a t , m e r u p a k a n p e r s y a r a t a n u n t u k d a p a t m e n d a y a g u n a k a n d a n a b a n t u a n l u a r n e g e r i b a g i p e m b e n t u k a n k e k u a t a n p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g m a n d i r i . U n t u k i t u p e r l u p u l a d i t u n j a n g o l e b t e r t i b a d m i n i s t r a s i y a n g l e b i b s e m p u r n a . S e b a b b a g a i m a n a p u n , p a d a d a s a r n y a , k e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g d i t o p a n g o l e b d a n a b a n t u a n y a n g b e r u p a k r e d i t l u n a k d a r i l u a r n e g e r i b e r s i f a t s e m e n t a r a . S e d a n g k a n , p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g s e b a t a d a i a b p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g s e p e n u b n y a d i l a k s a n a k a n o l e b k e m a m p u a n d i r i s e n d i r i .

D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , S i d a n g I G G I k e - 2 7 y a n g m e n g b a s i l k a n s u a t u p e r t a m b a b a n d a n a b a n t u a n n y a d i s a t u p i b a k s a n g a t m e l e g a k a n , s e b a b b a l i n i a k a n s a n g a t m e m p e r l a n c a r p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g t e l a b d i r e n c a n a k a n . A k a n t e t a p i , d i l a i n p i b a k p e r t a m b a b a n d a n a b a n t u a n y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n d a r i t a b u n k e t a b u n d a p a t d i p a n d a n g s e b a g a i a d a n y a s e m a c a m " k e t e r g a n t u n g a n " , y a n g a p a b i l a t e r j a d i s u a t u s e b a b s e b i n g g a b a n t u a n t e r s e b u t j a u b b e r k u r a n g m a k a a k a n b e r a k i b a t t e r b e n t i n y a s a m a s e k a l i p r o y e k - p r o y e k y a n g m e n g a n d a l k a n d a n a d a r i l u a r n e g e r i . M e m p e r b a i k i k e t i m p a n g a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n d a n t e r u s m e m a c u p e n d a p a t a n d a l a m n e g e r i b a r u s d i l a k s a n a k a n d e n g a n s u n g g u b - s u n g -g u b , s e b i n g g a m a m p u m e n i n g k a t k a n k e m a m p u a n d i r i s e n d i r i . U n t u k i t u " p o l a b i d u p s e d e r b a n a " b e n d a k n y a t i d a k b a n y a m e n j a d i s e k e d a r s e m b o y a n , m e l a i n k a n b a r u s m e n j a d i k e n y a t a a n . S e l a i n i t u p e r l u p u l a d i t i n g k a t k a n k e r j a k e r a s s e r t a t u m b u b n y a a p a r a t - a p a r a t y a n g " b e r s i b " . H a l - b a l t e r s e b u t m e n j a d i s e m a k i n p e n t i n g , m e n g i n g a t d e w a s a i n i k i t a t e l a b m e l a n g k a b p a d a R e p e l i t a I V , d a n t i n g g a l d u a t a b a p l a g i m e m a s u k i e r a l e p a s l a n d a s . .


Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia* - LPEM

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