Giorgia Nicatore

REES-562-01 Afghanistan: Pol/Geopol/Sec

Provincial Analysis, Nov 4th

2013

1

Provincial Analysis: Bamyan

Bamyan (or Bamian, or Bamiyan), literally translated from Dari as ‘place of the shining

light’, is an Afghan province situated at the centre of the country, bordering the provinces of Sar-

e Pul, Samangan, Baghlan, Parwan, Wardak, Ghazni, Daykundi and Ghor. It is in fact at the

heart of the Hazarajat, and has often been referred to as the heart of Afghanistan, within a

distance of about 240 km from the capital, Kabul. The large majority of the population belongs

to the Hazara ethnic group, followed by Tajiks, Tatar and Pashtuns1. Bamyan is located at the

centre of the Hindu Kush mountain range and has important natural and historical sites including

the giant Buddha statues of Bamyan (destroyed by the Taliban in 2001) and the Band-e Amir

national park, the first in Afghan history. With much of the land being mountainous and thus

inaccessible or inapt for agriculture, Bamyan is one of the poorest and agriculturally least

productive provinces of Afghanistan2. The province is however regarded as one of the most

1 MRRD & NABDP 2006, p. 2

2 MRRD & RRERS 2006, p. 1

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peaceful in post-2001 Afghanistan; nevertheless it must be noted that Bamyan, as the centre of

the Hazarajat and home of the Hazaras, had previously undergone an enormous amount of

suffering under the Communist government, between local commanders during the civil war and

under the Taliban3.

The purpose of this provincial analysis will be to examine in more detail a number of different

aspects of the province: the politics, the economy, the state of the insurgency and the presence of

military personnel will be the focuses of the discussion, but topics particular to Bamyan will also

be tackled. It will be important to note the uniqueness of two features of this province: Habiba

Sarobi, the first (and to date only) female provincial governor in Afghanistan and Bamyan’s

potential in the tourism industry, an unusual area of growth.

The facts

Bamyan covers an area of about 17,414 square kilometres4; at the East of the province is

the location of the provincial capital, the homonymous Bamyan. Bamyan is also the name of one

of the seven Civil Divisions, the others being Shebar, Saighan, Kahmard, Yakawlang, Panjab and

Waras. Much of the land in Bamyan is extremely mountainous and therefore mostly

inaccessible, with the Hindu Kush mountain range bisecting the region: more than 93% of the

topography is mountainous or semi-mountainous5.

Whilst sources differ on the matter, a census carried out in 2011 by the Central Statistical

Organisation of Afghanistan (CSO) estimated the population of Bamyan to be around 418,5006,

with an overwhelming majority of 97% of the people living in rural areas, the most populous

3 AREU 2011, p. 1

4 MRRD & NABDP 2006, p.1

5 ibid

6 CSO 2012

3

district being Waras, the south most area. According to a UNODC report of 2008, the number of

people under 20 years of age was 205,0007 (out of the 345,000 total population they identified at

the time). The ethnic composition is predominantly Hazara, with Tajik, Tatar and Pashtun

minorities8. Dari is spoken by around 96% of the population, with the remainder speaking

Pashto; more than 90% of the population practices Shia Islam9.

The Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) of Afghanistan issued

‘Regional Rural Economic Regeneration Strategies’ (RRERS) reports for each of the Afghan

provinces in 2006. According to Bamyan’s provincial profile the area is one of the poorest, most

mountainous, least agriculturally productive, with the most water shortages, food insecurity and

poorest soil quality10

in Afghanistan. The report opens with exactly these words, which indeed

seem to leave little room for optimism.

When it comes to politics and security, however, Bamyan’s situation is considerably better than

that of a lot of other provinces in Afghanistan. As mentioned Bamyan has the first and only

female provincial governor, Habiba Sarobi, it has four MPs, nine provincial council members

and two senators, and the level of security has been rated as low risk.

Politics

In September 2005 72% percent of Bamyan’s population cast their votes at the

Parliamentary and Provincial Council Elections, representing the highest turnout in

Afghanistan11

. In 2005 the Habiba Sarobi was appointed as the provincial governor, the first and

7 MRRD & RRERS 2006, p. 24 8 MRRD & NABDP 2006, p.2: again, sources differ on this subject, with some also including Sayyds. 9 Pajhwok Afghan News

10 MRRD & RRERS 2006, p. 1 11

NDI 2006, p. 15

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only woman in Afghanistan to hold that position. Whilst there had been doubts about her ability

to assert her authority, Sarobi has since her appointment been repeatedly praised, with Bamyan’s

population’s support behind her. In 2010 four MPs (amongst them a woman) were voted at the

Wolesi Jirga. The elections did not cause issues in the province, and the ballots were counted

without controversy. The political situation in Bamyan is fairly stable, especially if comparing it

with some of Afghanistan’s other regions.

There are no political issues of special importance in Bamyan; as mentioned, the region is fairly

well-functioning and stable from a political point of view. Sources such as Pajhwok Afghan

News12

do make mention of how the local population is growing unsatisfied of development

projects in the area: the lack of reliable electricity, road networks, healthcare and unemployment

are growing concerns that lead some citizens to blame the government for arbitrary exclusion of

Bamyan from funding. As will be discussed however, whilst some of the provinces with more

acute security threats do benefit from larger sums to dedicate to development, Bamyan is still the

recipient of large amounts of development expenditure, and these feelings are not widespread.

The economy

90% of Bamyan’s economy is based on agriculture and livestock. Unlike many other

regions in Afghanistan Bamyan has been declared poppy-free by the UNODC since 2007: the

topography of the region as well as the relative low quality of road networks and transport

infrastructure dramatically reduce its appeal as a hub for drug trafficking13

. The average family

income in the province is $1,030 per year, with the majority of the population engaged in

subsistence agriculture. Animal husbandry and the cultivation of vegetables and fruits is also

12

Pajhwok Afghan News 2013 13 UNODC 2010, p. 11

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present, but rare outside of the Waras district. According to a 2008 UNODC report a few villages

throughout the province also grow tobacco and produce small handicrafts (rugs, carpets, jewelry,

shawls)14

. The main crops grown in Bamyan are wheat, corn, barley, beans and potatoes. Most

farming in the province is subsistence based and there is little surplus to market. Although

farmers do sell potatoes from the Shibar, Kahmard and Bamyan centres, overproduction, the lack

of a regulated market (and the cheap imports from Pakistan) and the lack of storage facilities

mean that low prices for this product are maintained. This means that despite the fact that

Bamyan is the largest producer of potatoes in Afghanistan that produce still provides a limited

source of revenue15

. Around 90% of all households also hold their own livestock and poultry:

this contributes to the income of one-third of the families16

.

There are currently 8 UN agencies and around 20 national and international NGOs working on

nutrition, reconstruction, health and development projects in Bamyan17

. According to their online

interactive map of where they work18

, USAID alone has had 44 projects running in Bamyan.

According to the CSO’s 2012-2013 statistical report on industries’ development Bamyan is

currently receiving 2,109,191Afghanis (around $37,000) in development money from the

government to implement projects in sectors such as health, education, transportation, irrigation

and agriculture19

. In a 2011-2012 statistical report on the state of donor assistance in Afghanistan

the CSO put the total NGO and donor expenditure for development projects in the province of

Bamyan at $116,504,732 with 383 projects running20

. Foreign expenditure in Bamyan, according

to this same statistical report, is one of the highest in the country; with so many projects devoted

14 UNODC 2008, p. 27 15

MRRD & RRERS 2006, p. 4 16

UNODC 2010, p. 12 17

ibid 18

USAID (online map) 19

CSO 2013, p. 198 20

CSO 2012, p. 263

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to the improvement of infrastructure, agriculture, health and education it is clear that Bamyan’s

economy is heavily reliant on foreign assistance. As mentioned, small industries are scarce but

handicrafts such carpets, blankets and clothes as well as jewelry are still produced despite the

isolation of the province and the unlikelihood of the development of small industries21

. However

the sale of traditional handicrafts may increase due to the growing tourism industry in Bamyan,

in particular in the area surrounding the Band-e Amir national park, the first to be declared as

such in Afghanistan. Popular amongst tourists in the 1970s, at the centre of Band-e Amir is a

series of six azure lakes held back by natural travertine dams, offering a spectacular view: the

area has tremendous potential to attract more international tourism in the years to come. Since

2006 the US government and the Wildlife Conservation Society have been working with the

government of Afghanistan to establish this national park; the park is now managed by the Band-

e Amir Protected Area Committee (BAPAC)22

. The national park is already showing signs of

increased affluence from tourists (mostly nationals) and is already providing a source of income

to park rangers or artisans in the area: these factors are expected to lead to increased economic

development for the area, perhaps providing a solution (albeit localised) to the heavy reliance on

donor money.

The state of the Taliban insurgency

Bamyan has been one of the safest provinces in Afghanistan since the fall of Taliban;

most likely because of its remoteness and the overwhelming majority of Hazara, the Taliban

insurgency has failed or has been unwilling to reach this region. Bamyan became known as one

of the pioneering provinces to make the transition between international forces to Afghan control

21

UNODC 2010, p. 12 22

USAID 2009

7

and is often taken as model for other provinces.

Incidents in 2012, however, have again sparked concerns in the north-eastern corner of the

province, historically the most dangerous. Two car bombs in July of 2012 killed nine police

officers23

; whilst this may seem like an almost irrelevant number in the wider context of

Afghanistan, in Bamyan this represented the highest level of violence of the war. The Taliban

insurgent threat seemed to be slowly spilling over from the less secure Baghlan, Parwan and

Wardak provinces. Whilst there was, or is, no real way of knowing whether those incidents were

the beginning of a pattern, these have nevertheless affected Bamyan in that they have created a

renewed state of nervousness amongst the population. No incidents of similar importance have

been recorded since and today there is little talk of insurgency: the focus, as demonstrated by the

above lengthy discussion on it, is on economic development. Bamyan is still regarded as a safe

haven at the heart of a country with a severe ongoing insurgency.

Security and military presence

In 2003, as part of joined ISAF efforts, the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) set up

their Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in the province of Bamyan to provide a secure

environment and enable the facilitation of reconstruction and development. While Kiwis made

up the bulk of the PRT, defence personnel form the US, Singapore and Malaysia also contributed

to the effort. The NZ police also contributed assistance to the Afghan National Security Forces

by training and mentoring them for 7 years: their mission culminated in the complete transition

to Afghan forces in 201224

. The main effort made by the NZDF in Bamyan has been to provide a

secure environment in which to implement development projects – as stated in a report published

23

The Guardian 2012 24

NZ Army News 2013, p. 9

8

by NZ Aid these efforts have paid off and a number of improvements in education, healthcare

and infrastructure have been made25

.

Fig. 1: From NZDF News, Issue 441, April 2013

After a 10-year long effort to help reconstruct and bring stability to a region devastated by

Taliban rule through development projects (health, education and agriculture amongst others)

and training, the New Zealand PRT left Kiwibase in April of 2013. The NZDF left 27 “behind

the wire” personnel to ensure the progress made is sustained whilst stripping the base of all

military equipment26

. In the space of a decade New Zealand deployed more than 3,500 military

personnel27

, only suffering 8 deaths in service in Bamyan28

, and spent around $300 million as a

result to its commitment in Afghanistan. Today, there are 27 NZDF personnel on the ground in

Bamyan; their purpose is to ‘continue to support Bamyan’29

whilst New Zealand Aid is also

ensuring their agricultural and solar panel projects are completed.

Foreign military presence is extremely limited, and even Afghan police and military forces are

scarce and lightly armed in the province; this reflective of the relative security that Bamyan

enjoys.

25

New Zealand Aid Programme 2013, p. 2-3 26

NZ Army News 2013 27

New Zealand Parliament 2013 28

NZ Army News 2013, p. 9 29

NZ Army News 2013, p. 8

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Lakes and peace

This analysis has sought to show the uniqueness of Bamyan as one of the most peaceful

of the thirty-four provinces of Afghanistan. There are two important aspects to take into account

when examining this region: its remote location and harsh landscape and its natural and cultural

sites. Much of the discussion above has been centred on the economy and the potential for

growth in Bamyan as opposed to its security issues, and that it because it is in the former that this

region is seeking improvement. Security in Bamyan is good and there is close to no military

presence on the ground: its remoteness and harsh landscape play an important part in ensuring

that security remain as it is. Infrastructure, agriculture and businesses on the other hand are

scarce: there is however tremendous potential to keep the economy growing in a sustainable

fashion when foreign expenditure will become unavailable. This potential is found primarily in

agriculture but also, and perhaps more importantly and unique to Bamyan, in the tourism sector.

10

Sources

Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), Legacies of Conflict: Healing

Complexes and Moving Froward in Bamiyan Province, 2011 [Online:

http://www.areu.org.af/Uploads/EditionPdfs/1125E%20-%20Legacies%20of%20Conflict%20-

%20Bamiyan%20-%20CS%202011.pdf Accessed 10/30/2013]

CSO, Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2011-12, Issue No. 33, CSO Printing Press, July

2012 [Online: http://cso.gov.af/Content/files/Donor%20Assistance(2).pdf Accessed 10/31/2013]

CSO, Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2012-13, 2013 [Online:

http://cso.gov.af/Content/files/09%20Industries%20Development.pdf Accessed 10/31/2013]

CSO, Estimated Population of Afghanistan 2011-2012, 2012 [Online:

http://cso.gov.af/Content/files/Bamyan.pdf Accessed 10/30/2013]

Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation Development (MRRD) and National Area-Based

Development Program (NABDP), Bamyan Provincial Profile, 2006 [Online:

https://www.cimicweb.org/cmo/Afghanistan/ISAF/Provincial%20Reconstruction%20Teams%20

(PRTs)/Documents/Bamyan%20Provincial%20Profile.pdf Accessed 10/29/2013]

Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation Development (MRRD) and Regional Rural Economic

Regeneration Strategies (RRERS), Provincial Profile for: Bamyan, 2006 [Online:

http://www.undp.org.af/publications/RRERS/Bamyan%20Provincial%20Profile.pdf Accessed

10/29/2013]

National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), The September 2005

Parliamentary and Provincial Council Elections in Afghanistan, 2006 [Online:

http://www.ndi.org/files/2004_af_report_041006.pdf Accessed 10/31/2013]

New Zealand Aid Programme, New Zealand’s Achievements from 10 Years of

Development Assistance in Bamyan, Afghanistan, 2013 [Online:

http://www.aid.govt.nz/sites/default/files/Our%20Story%20-

%2010%20years%20of%20development%20in%20Bamyan.pdf Accessed 11/1/2013]

New Zealand Parliament, Motions – Afghanistan, Bamian – Withdrawala of Provincial

Reconstruction Team, Volume: 689, Page: 9111, April 2013 [Online:

http://www.parliament.nz/mi-nz/pb/debates/debates/50HansD_20130409_00000008/motions-

%E2%80%94-afghanistan-bamian%E2%80%94withdrawal-of-provincial Accessed 11/1/2013]

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NZ Army News, The NZDF in Bamyan: Mission Accomplished, Issue 441, April 2013

[Online: http://www.army.mil.nz/downloads/pdf/army-news/armynews441.pdf Accessed

11/1/2013]

NZDF, Media Release: Chief of Defence Force: Bamyan Mission Accomplished, 2013

[Online: http://www.nzdf.mil.nz/news/media-releases/2013/20130405-codbma.htm Accessed

11/1/2013]

Pajhwok Afghan News, Background Profile of Bamyan Province [Online:

http://www.elections.pajhwok.com/en/content/background-profile-bamyan-province Accessed

10/30/2013]

Pajhwok Afghan News, Rampant corruption, unemployment main problems in Bamyan:

Residents, 2013 [Online: http://www.elections.pajhwok.com/en/content/rampant-corruption-

unemployment-main-problems-bamyan-residents Accessed 10/30/2013]

The Guardian, Afghanistan insurgency threatens previously peaceful Bamiyan province,

2012 [Online: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jul/19/afghanistan-insurgency-threatens-

bamiyan-province Accessed 10/31/2013]

UNODC, Afghanistan – Provincial Profiles, February 2010 – Work in Progress [Online:

http://www.unodc.org/documents/afghanistan/Rainbow_Strategy/Blue_paper_6_Jan._2012_com

plete.pdf Accessed 10/30/2013]

UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Poppy Free Road Map and Provincial Profiles, 2008 –

Work in Progress [Online: http://www.unodc.org/documents/regional/central-

asia/Blue_Opium%20Poppy%20Roadmap-Work%20in%20Progress_June08.pdf Accessed

10/30/2013]

USAID, Afghanistan Dedicates Band-e Amir National Park, 2009 [Online:

http://www.usaid.gov/afghanistan/news-information/press-releases/afghanistan-dedicates-band-

e-amir-national-park Accessed 10/31/2013]

USAID, Where We Are: Interactive Map [Online:

http://map.usaid.gov/?l=regional&w=AFGHANISTAN%20%26%20PAKISTAN Accessed

10/31/2013]