INFLUENCE OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE AND WINE OF EUROPE

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Brittia Dartige Du Fournet

TCD - Geography dissertation 2009

CONTENT :

Abstract : p 1

– A what are they?

Bibliography: p. 87

1.

WINE AND CLIMATE - THE INFLUENCE OF EL NINO ON

EUROPEAN WEATHER

ABSTRACT

In this dissertation, I propose to examine the possibility that the El Nino - El

Nina events influence the climate of Europe, the growing of grapes in France

and even, to certain extend the climate of Ireland and Britain.

The wine growers of chateau Brion, (south-west of France) in the Bordeaux

region (45 º Lattitude) have been kind enough to provide me with detailed

records of their meteorological observations for the past century and in

particular very detailed record of the past 70 years or so.

The weather has been extremely variable in the 20th

century and promises to

be just as variable too far in the 21st. The present global warming may be a

reality but the recent El Nino la Nina phenomenon may be also to blame for

the excessive heat and excessive rain that we had to endure in the past few

years.

Indeed, the year 2003 was an El Nino year and the heat killed 30,000 people

in Europe, some 1500 of them in France. Several reports state that climate

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phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña will be noticeably different from

those observed in the past.1 The cumulating effect of global warming and the

– a events, might very well have been a

major factor in this disastrous state of affairs.

2. INTRODUCTION

GRAPES HARVESTS AS PROXY FOR PAST CLIMATE

RECONSTITUTION

The weather is not a fixed feature as we know, but even the climate of

individual countries is widely variable in time. It is probably one of the

causes of vast movement of population, such as the Viking invasion of

Britain, France and Ireland and perhaps of the movement of the Celtic

people across Europe and part of Asia. What drive the general climate is not

completely understood. However the record of the past weather and climatic

events in history might add to our understanding of both historic events and

Climatic science. Phenology can give interesting insight into the working of

climate. Phenology is a science dealing with the relations between climate

and periodic biological phenomena. It is the study of the response of living

organisms to seasonal and climatic changes to the environment in which

they live. Seasonal changes include variations in the duration of sunlight,

precipitation, temperature and other life-controlling factors.

Here we are first examining the different climatic forcing and comparing the

record of past climate with the record of the wine growers. Last, we try to

extrapolate the influence of El Niño – La Nina phenomena on the European

climate.

1 http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/news/v.php?id=14970

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3. – A what are they?

El Niño is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical

Pacific which has important consequences for weather around the globe,

including increased rainfall across the southern US and Peru. This system

has caused destructive flooding or drought in the West Pacific and brush

fires in Australia.

In an El Nino year, the trade winds blowing west from South America

weaken, and a pool of warm water surges eastward across the equatorial

Pacific. This affects storms in the central Pacific, which strengthen and feed

strong, moist winds blowing toward North America

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Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are considered essential for

the prediction of short-term (a few months to 1 year) climate variations. To

provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys which measures

temperatures, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys daily

transmit data which are available to researchers and forecasters around the

world in real time. In normal, non-El Niño conditions (top panel of

schematic diagram), the trade winds blow towards the west across the

tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the west Pacific,

so that the sea surface is about 1/2 meter higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador

(Philander, S.G.H., 1990)

M g " h Ch " “ h B by”

Spanish, El Niño refers to the baby Jesus

and its characteristic Christmas warmer-

than-normal sea temperatures and higher-

than-normal water levels in the tropical

Pacific lead to a change in weather

patterns. La Niña is just the Spanish for

little girl, and it refer to the cold years

which usually follow the warmth of El

Niño. It is a warming of the tropical

Pacific. El Nino occurs every three to seven

years lasting for 12–18 months. It is linked

to the Southern Oscillation. During El

Niño, the trade winds weaken along the

equator as atmospheric pressure rises in the

western Pacific and falls in the eastern Pacific. Weakened trade winds allow

warm surface water, normally confined to the western Pacific, to migrate

eastward.

El Niño events occur in equatorial regions but causes changes in the world

climate. Originally, El Niño was the name used for warmer than normal sea

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surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America.

Now, El Niño has come to refer to a whole complex of Pacific Ocean sea-

surface temperature changes and global weather events.i

Since last February 2007, we have entered a La Nina Cycle, and this is

probably why the weather is colder than it has been for the past few years:

“La Niña’s tend to develop from March to June and reach peak intensity

at the end of the year and into the next February, according to Vernon

Kousky,ii NOAA's top El Nino/La Nina expert. La Nina winters tend to be

warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the

Northwest.iii

”"We're seeing a shift to the La Nina”2

In normal, non-El Nino conditions, the trade winds blow towards the west

across the tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the

west Pacific, so that the sea surface is about 1/2 meter higher at Indonesia

than at Ecuador. The sea surface temperature is about 8 degrees C higher in

the west, with cool temperatures off South America, due to an upwelling of

cold water from deeper levels.iv

Wind-driven upwelling, a process that brings cold water to the surface along

the equator and along the west coasts of North and South America, is also

greatly reduced, causing sea surface temperatures to rise. Upwelled waters

are rich in nutrients that support biological productivity, so that reduced

upwelling adversely affects marine ecosystems and

economically valuable fish stocks.v

4. EL NINO IN HISTORY

Exceptionally strong El Nino events may have

contributed to the downfall of two early civilisations in

Peru, according to American researchers. Michael

Moseley (right) an anthropologist at the University of

2 NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbache

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Florida in Gainesville, has consulted historical records in Peru. He says that

severe flooding devastated coastal cities around AD 600 and AD 1100. The

evidence that this flooding was associated with strong El Nino events comes

from ice cores taken from a glacier about 1000 kilometres to the southwest

of the afflicted cities. The cores indicate that the Andes suffered unusually

severe droughts at around AD 600 and AD 1100. Strong El Nino events may

have caused the downfall of early civilisations in Peru. Dr. Moseley thinks

that severe flooding devastated some peruvian cities around AD 600 and AD

1100.

“The evidence that this flooding was associated with strong El Nino

events comes from ice cores taken from a glacier about 1000 km to the

southwest of the afflicted cities...Normal El Nino events are known to

produce droughts in the highlands”vi.

h o occurs, the waters of the Equatorial Pacific become

warmer than normal, creating rising air that changes wind and weather

patterns. The effects can be worldwide, including drought in the western

Pacific and more rain in Peru and in the west coast of South America.vii

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Lonnie Thompson, (above left) of the Polar Institute at Ohio State

University in Columbus, USA, who studied the ratios of isotopes of oxygen

in these ice cores, also believes that the isotope ratios show that around AD

600 and AD 1100, the climate was warmer than at any time since 1531.

The drought recorded in the ice core between AD 560 and AD 590

corresponds to a decline in the Moche culture on the north coast of Peru.

Their capital city was flooded, rebuilt, and then overrun by sand dunes

related to a drought. The Moche moved their capital north to Pampa Grande

(New scientist, March 1990).

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Figure 1-

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=EL+NINO+LA+NINA+YEARS&FORM=HDRSC2#view=de

tail&id=AEA2FBB1C63A8CEBDE920D6EA8A74388A13569E6&selectedIndex=18

5. DOES EL NIÑO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE CLIMATE IN

EUROPE?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important global

climate patterns. The effects in the Pacific and the tropical regions are

accepted; however, its impacts in the North Atlantic–European sector are

controversialviii

.

The influence of El Niño on the tropical latitudes has been demonstrated

however, the effects on Europe are not clear.

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Figure 2-Schematic of global temperature and precipitation anomalies

in an El-Niño winter (source: NOAA).

A study of atmospheric weather conditions found that during the winter

(December, January, February) of an El Niño year there is an increased

number of cyclonic weather systems over Europe(Fraedrich, 1994) . This

gives colder weather over central and northern Europe, with increased winter

precipitation from the British Isles to the Black Sea.

A study shows that, in the February of an El Niño year, more rain falls,

compared to the long-term mean (Wilby 1993) but west and south-west

Europe sees less rain ( dry summers). According to Robert Wilby (of

Loughborough University), El ’ during the past century have usually

brought extra rain and snow to Britain in winter.

ENSO events In an El Niño, in the North Atlantic lows follow a more

southerly route, whereas they follow a more northerly one during a La Niña

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event.3 El Nino phases occurred between 1911 and 1914 and again between

1939 and 1942

Stephen Cane of Columbia University, New York, was surprised by the

persistence of the 1994 El Nino. It lasted for 3 years.

Previously the worst El Nino for a century occurred in 1982-83, causing

thousands of deaths during a major African droughtix

.

Cane and Zebiak developed a model of El Nino's dynamics. Their model

predicted, a year in advance, the timing of the next El Nino in 1986-87 and

predicted that the following event would begin in late 1991.

One model rightly predicted that the warming would continue through 1993.

It was developed by the US government's National Oceanographic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It utilization of new sea and wind

data collected as part of the international Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere

(TOGA) research programme.

Figure 3-vineyard in winter

3 http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/presse/faq-s/das-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-phaenomen/hat-el-nino-

einen-einfluss-auf-das-klima-in-europa.html

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6. PHENOLOGY AND WINES

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events4. It provides

comparisons between years and among different geographic regions. These

records also have scientific value for assessing the impacts of climate change

as well as the reconstitution of past climate. 5

Wine growing developed when the climate was most conducive (Le Roy

Ladurie, 1971; Pfister, 1988; Gladstones, 1992). Records of dates of harvest

and yield for European viticulture have been kept for nearly a 1000 years

(Penning-Roswell, 1989; Le Roy Ladurie, 1971) revealing periods with

more beneficial growing season temperatures and greater productivity.

D g h m v “ p m m” p ( gh y 900-1300 AD)

the data indicate that temperatures were up to 1°C warmer with

vineyards planted as far north as the coastal zones of the Baltic Sea

and southern England(Gladstones, 1992).

During the High Middle Ages (12th and 13th

centuries) harvesting

occurred in early September as compared to early to mid October

today and that growing season temperatures must have been 1.7°C

warmer than today(Pfister, 1988; Gladstones, 1992).

Conversely, temperature declines during the 14th century were

m c g h “Little Ice g ” ( x g h 19 h

century) resulting in northern vineyards dying out and growing

seasons so short that harvesting grapes in southern Europe was

difficult.

4 such as the date that migrating birds return, the first flower dates for plants, and the date on which a lake

freezes in the autumn or opens in the spring 5 http://www.uwgb.edu/biodiversity/phenology/index.htm

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in Switzerland over the last 500 years Phenological grape harvest

observations have been used as a proxy indicator for reconstructing past

temperature variability. The data stem from the Euroclimhist databank of the

Institute of History at the University of Berne6.

This study has created a temperature reconstruction from 1480 to 2005 as a

region average for the Swiss Plateau region. It shows a cooling during the

17th century with lowest values in 1698, a warming until 1718 followed by a

negative trend until the end of the 18th century a cooling with its minimum

in 18167 and a warming until 1868, followed by a positive trend until the late

1940s.

This is an example of their recordx

Swiss record indice of deviation from normal

Year Temperature deviation from normal

1950 0.87

1951 -0.58

1952 0.62

1953 0.33

1954 -1.01

1955 0

1956 -0.76

1957 -0.25

1958 0.26

1959 0.44

1960 0.11

1961 -0.04

1962 -0.33

6 http://www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/diplom_nmeier.pdf 7 The catastrophic eruption of the Tambora volcano, Indonesia, in 1815 was followed by a so-called "year-without-a-summer." In New England, USA, for example, frost occurred during each of the summer months in 1816.

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1963 -0.43

1964 0.47

1965 -0.83

1966 0.15

1967 0.29

1968 -0.07

1969 -0.11

1970 -0.25

1971 -0.11

1972 -0.29

1973 0.11

1974 -0.47

1975 0.26

1976 1.13

1977 -0.47

1978 -0.62

1979 0.11

1980 -1.12

1981 0.76

1982 0.4

1983 0.84

1984 -0.4

1985 -0.18

1986 0.11

1987 -0.69

1988 0.4

1989 0.98

1990 0.4

1991 0.18

1992 0.73

1993 0.91

1994 1.05

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1995 0.4

1996 0.47

1997 0.55

1998 0.91

1999 0.4

2000 1.2

2001 0.69

2002 0.62

2003 2.43

2004 0.4

2005 0.91

Swiss temperature deviation from normal 1950-2005

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1112

1314

15

16

1718

192021

2223

24

25

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27

2829

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31

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33

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35

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39

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41

42

4344

45

464748

49

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51

5253

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5432

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89-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55

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French records of grape-harvest dates8 (vendanges) in Burgundy (north-East

France) have also been used to reconstruct temperatures from 1370 to 2003

using a process-based phenology modeIt indicates that Temperatures as high

as those reached in the 1990s have occurred several times in Burgundy since

1370.

Hoverer the best and most detailed record come from the Bordeaux region of

France which also provide some of the best wines in the world.

Unfortunately it only starts at the 20th

century, with some notes on earlier

years.

The record chosen come from the Gironde department and particularly from

the Haut Brion Domain. This domain produces some of the most expansive

wines available anywhere.

In this dissertation the questions raised are: Are grape harvest observations

such as date of harvest, weather, cold warmth, rain, drought, a trustworthy

past climate indicator? Are the observations collected in France and

Switzerland applicable to the past climate of Ireland and Great Britain? This

is the challenge proposed here.

7. BURGUNDY PINOT-NOIR RECORDS

The Burgundy region can boost to breed some of the best wine in France,

including the famous Beaujolais. French records of grape-harvest dates9 in

8 Grape ripening as a past climate indicator Nature, VoL432, 18 November 2004. -Isabelle Chuine1, Pascal Yiou 2,

Nicolas Viovy 2, Berrd Seguin 3, Valérie Daux 2, Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie 4 1 CEFE-CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier, France 2 LSCE-CEA-CNRS CE Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3 INRA Site Agroparc, domaine Saint-Paul, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France 4 Collège de France, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France

9 Grape ripening as a past climate indicator Nature, VoL432, 18 November 2004. -Isabelle Chuine1, Pascal

Yiou2,Nicolas Viovy2, Berrd Seguin3, Valérie Daux2, Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie4 1 CEFE-CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier, France 2 LSCE-CEA-CNRS CE Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3 INRA Site Agroparc, domaine Saint-Paul, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France

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Burgundy (north-East France) have been used to reconstruct temperatures

from 1370 to 2003 using a process-based phenology model developed for

the Pinot Noir grape. Temperatures as high as those reached in the 1990s

have occurred several times in Burgundy since 1370.

The chart shows the number of days after the 1rst of September occurring

before the grapes harvest.

The summer of 2003 appears to have been exteriority, with temperatures that

were probably higher than in any other year since 1370.10

The grape harvest date series is a corrected and updated harvest date series

from Le Roy Ladurie (1983)11

covering 1370 to 1977 and completed in

2003.

In another experiment Grape harvest dates were collected from up to 18

cities or villages in Burgundy (the actual number depends on the year) since

1370.

Dijon, the main town of the area and the longest series overall and the only

one available for some periods - was chosen as the reference series:

“17 other series were used to take into account the regional variability. All

series were standardized such that they present the same average date as

Dijon Over their common recorded period. For each year the harvest date

4 Collège de France, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France

10 Nature,VoL432, 18 November 2004. 11 Emmanuel L is professor at the Collège de France and, since 1973, chair, department of history of

modern civilization. He has had a distinguished career, serving as Administrateur Général of the

Bibliothèque Nationale de France (1987-94); member of the Institute (Academy of Moral and Political

Sciences); Agrégé of the University, Doctor of Letters; Commander of the Legion of Honor (1996); and has

taught at the universities of Montpellier, the Sorbonne, and Paris VII. Dr. Ladurie is the author of many historical works, including Les Paysans de Languedoc (1966), Histoire du Climat depuis l'An Mil (second

ed., 1983), Montaillou, village occitan (1975), Le Territoire, de l'Historien (2 vols., 1973, 1978), Le

Carnaval de Romans, 1579-1580 (1980), L'Etat royal (1987), L'Ancien Regime (1991), Le Siècle de Platter

(1995), and Saint-Simon, le systeme de la Cour (1997).

http://www.loc.gov/bicentennial/bios/frontiers/bios_ladurie.html

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Ht was computed as the median date among all available standardized dates

including Dijon”.12

These are the Burgundy records of temperature deviation from Normal

1950-2003

1950 0.3

1951 -1.02

1952 0.69

1953 0.16

1954 -1.11

1955 -0.62

1956 -1.49

1957 -0.62

1958 -0.46

1959 0.86

1960 0.31

1961 -0.06

1962 -1.11

1963 -0.96

1964 0.24

1965 -1.43

1966 -0.17

1967 -0.46

1968 -0.54

1969 -0.89

1970 -0.46

1971 0.68

1972 -1.02

1973 0.06

1974 0.08

12 BURGUNDY RECORD: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/france/burgundy2004.txt

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1975 0.07

1976 2.17

1977 -0.78

1978 0.00

1979 -0.01

1980 -1.22

1981 0.02

1982 0.71

1983 0.12

1984 -0.78

1985 -0.2

1986 -0.07

1987 -0.62

1988 0.08

1989 0.88

1990 0.6

1991 0.00

1992 0.6

1993 0.49

1994 0.42

1995 -0.06

1996 0.38

1997 1.04

1998 0.63

1999 0.63

2000 1.03

2001 0.5

2002 0.71

2003 5.86

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Burgundy temperature deviation 1950-2003

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1314

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171819

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242526

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2930

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3637

38

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4041

42

434445

46

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484950

51

5253

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76

5432

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89-2

-1

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3

4

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53

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Figure 4- The duchy de Bourgogne 1477

The temperature anomalies are with respect to the April to August meanxi

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Temperature of Dijon between 1960 and

1989.13

Figure 5-Temperatures anomalies 1400-2000xii

-Leroy-Ladurie

In 1789 the average temperature went down by -1.22 -causing poor harvest

and famine and this, probably contributed to the French revolution ferocity.

Because El Niño moves the rains that would normally soak the western

Pacific toward the Americas, such places as Australia, Indonesia, and India

may experience severe drought. According to historical records, 600,000

people died in just one region of India from the epic droughts of the 1789-

1793 El Niño.14

13 Ibid 14 http://www.sparticl.org/topic/el-nino-and-la-nina/view/national-geographic-magazine-article-el-nino-la-

nina-part-1/

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Figure 6-Bordeaux wines location

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Figure 7-Richard II meet rebels 1381

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Figure 8- Mayor kills Wat Tyler leader of the rebels

The 1381 famine and revolt: During the Peasants' Revolt of 1381, rebels

from Kent stormed London in rebellion against King Richard II. This

illustration (from British Library Royal MS 18, dated c. 1385-1400) depicts

two events at once. In the right half of the illustration, the young Richard

rides out to meet the rebels at Smithfield; in the left half of the illustration,

the Mayor of London kills Wat Tyler, the leader of the rebels, while Richard

watches on.15

15 http://home.gwu.edu/~jhsy/pr.html

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LITTERATURE REVIEW

A team16

from the National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate

(NCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,

Bern, Switzerland studied the

the swiss grapes harvest record17

. Grape harvest dates were used as a proxy

for April to August temperature reconstructions back to AD 1480 18

16 Nicole Meier1, This Rutishauser1, Christian Pfister 2, 3, Heinz Wanner1, 3 and Jürg Luterbacher1, 3

17 http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/meier2007/meier2007.html 18 Geophysical Research Letters, VoL34, L20705, doi:10.1029/2007GL031381.

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This record is based on the assumption that a late harvest (as compared with

the average date of 1961-1990) represents a cold year, an early harvest a

warm year. Swiss Grape Harvest Dates and Spring/Summer Temperature

Reconstruction19

ORIGINAL REFERENCE:20

Meier, N., T. Rutishauser, C. Pfister, H. Wanner, and J. Luterbacher. 2007.

Grape harvest dates as a proxy for Swiss April to August temperature

reconstructions back to AD 1480. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20705,

doi:10.1029/2007GL031381.

GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Switzerland

PERIOD OF RECORD: 1480 - 2006 AD

FUNDING SOURCES: Swiss National Science Foundation (project "Past,

Present and Future Climate Impact on spring and Summer Vegetation – a

Phenological Approach"

In Research on Climate (NCCR-Climate), projects PALVAREX and

CAPRICORN

And the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research21

.

The Annual median grape harvest dates for 15 locations in the Swiss Plateau

region and north-western Switzerland, plus phonological reconstruction of

April - August temperature.22

19 World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program 20Swiss Grape Harvest Dates and Spring/Summer Temperature Reconstruction. - IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for

Paleoclimatology - Data Contribution Series # 2008-015.

NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

21 Ibib : The publication is fincially supported by the Foundation Marchese Francesco Medici del Vascello. 22 Meier, N., et aL 2008.

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The team presented a record of grape harvest dates for Switzerland in ordre

to study The relationship between grape harvest dates and temperatures and

aptempt a reconstruction back to 1480.

A Calibration (1928-1979) was performed with monthly data from the Basel

and Geneva stations and verified over 1980-2006. Twelve days of grape

harvest difference correspond to around 1ºC April-August temperature

difference.

Periods cooler (late grape harvest dates) than the 1961-1990 mean are

reconstructed during the 17th century and at the beginning of the 19th

century.

Warmer conditions were experienced in the early 18th century and

during the recent decades, in agreement with grape harvest

temperature reconstructions from France and other independent

temperature estimates.

The earliest harvests were in the 1580s (2003) and the latest vintages

in the 1740s (1816).

Large tropical volcanic eruptions led to significantly later grape

harvest dates (cooling) one to two years after the event. (see 1816 : -

2.23º)

H STR R DU C M T D PU S ’ M - EMMANUEL LE ROY

LADURIE

Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie is Professor of Modern History at the Collège de

France23

. He has had a distinguished career, serving as Director of the

23 The Collège de France is a higher education and research establishment located in Paris, France, in the

5th arrondissement, or Latin Quarter, across the street from the historical campus of La Sorbonne. It was

created in 1530 at the request of King Francis I of France.

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Bibliothèque Nationale de France (1987-94); member of the Institute

(Academy of Moral and Political Sciences); and has taught at the

universities of Montpellier, in the south of France and at the prestigious

Sorbonne university, inParis.

Professor Le Roy Ladurie is the author of many historical works, including

Les Paysans de Languedoc (1966), Histoire du Climat depuis l'An Mil

(second ed., 1983), Montaillou, village occitan (1975), Le Territoire, de

l'Historien (2 vols., 1973, 1978), Le Carnaval de Romans, 1579-1580

(1980), L'Etat royal (1987), L'Ancien Regime (1991), Le Siècle de Platter

(1995), Saint-Simon, le systeme de la Cour (1997) and Histoire humaine et

comparée du climat (2004).xiii

Ladurie was a student of Fernand Braudel, and he is one of the greatest

French historians in the twentieth century and is acknowledged in the fields

f v m c h y. “H c m p ’

m ”(1967) b c m c f p f g f h c

climatologists24

.

After his retirement Leroy updated his history of climate.

In 2004 he produced the first part of a account of the history of weather and

climate in Western and Central Europe during the last millennium. His

Histoire du climat (1967) draws evidences from glaciers and vine harvest

dates and construct a picture of long term changes in climate (Little ice age)

. He also looks for impacts of climate on human societies and maintained

that people adapt to a changing climate. On a less positive note his influence

may have slowed some from taking action against climate change.

24 translated into English in 1971

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THE FRENCH BORDEAUX RECORD

The area of Bordeaux in south West France, produce some of the finest and

most expansive wine on the planet. The climate is mild and fairly humid.

The summers are often hot, but as the record show it is very variable from

one year to another. These records have been compiled over the century by

the wine grower of the area.25

25 Contributed by Dr Emile Peyud and Messrs Daniel Lawton and Alain Blanchy, Bordeaux wine brokers from their

persol archives.

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A

DOMAINE HAUT BRION26

General information on Bordeaux vintages

followed by statistical information:27

This figure in millimeters shows the amount of

rainfall in the Bordeaux region for the same period.

The average is 405 mm.

The wettest year was 1992: 697 mm.

The driest year was 2005: 229 mm.

26 http://www.haut-brion.com/home/downloads/la-mission-haut-brion-en.pdf 27 The notes on the vintages m k p b g g h f c f h y ’ w h on the various vintages.

32

32

Blason- note the lion, similar to the English Lion. In fact this is where

the English lion comes from.

THE YEAR OF THE COMET -1811

Total production Gironde28

This figure represents, in millions of hectoliters, the amount of wine

produced in the Gironde department - a hectoliter (hl) = 100 liters).

The smallest harvest: 1885 (1.07 million hectoliters).

The biggest harvest: 1922 (7.19 million hectoliters).

THE RECORDS

1798 An outstanding year -The harvest was not plentiful, but of

exceptional quality.

1811 An outstanding year- The year of the comet. An abundant and

truly exceptional h v , k w “ h w f h c m ”.29

1874 An outstanding year - Perfect weather for the vines. Genuinely

remarkable in quality with a large yield. 30

1899 An outstanding year a very fine outcome. All the wines were

excellent. Total production Gironde: 3.47 million hl

1900 An outstanding year- The first year of the new century! Very

similar to 1899. Total production Gironde: 5.73 million hl

28 Bordeaux modern adminitratives area, corresponding to a county 29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/1811_F1 30 P c ch v v b f : 5,500 f c (500 €) p b f h Premiers Crus and

6,000 francs (600€) f Yq m. T p c G : 5.11 m h

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33

1906 A very good year. Total production Gironde: 3.50 million hl

1918 A very good year .A very healthy year as well . Total production

Gironde: 3.81 million hl

1920 A good years-A success in general, Most of the 1920 vintage-

aged very quickly. Total production Gironde: 3.86 million hl

1921 A good year - A vintage of fine repute. Unfortunately, the very

hot weather during harvesting prevented an all-round success. Total

production Gironde: 3.84 million hl

1922 An average year- Overall record production since harvests have

been chronicled (around 1800). Total production Gironde: 7.19

million hl

1923 An average year .A good vintage that aged too quickly - Total


FROM THEN ON THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED31

1924 A good year. Rainfall: 361 mm. Total production Gironde: 5.60

million hl

1925 A lesser year, poor .Rainfall: 338 mm. Total production


FROM THEN ON THE DATE OF THE HARVEST HAVE BEEN ADDED

31 Although some data are missing

34

34

1926 A very good year- Rainfall: 393 mm Total production Gironde:

2.91 million hl- Date of the harvest: 4th to 11th October.

1927 A lesser year- A very second-rate year. Rainfall: 467 Total


1928 A very good year. Total production Gironde: 4.69 million hl

1929 An outstanding year A hot year, with extensive drought (the

driest year since the start of the century), Rainfall: 225 mm - Total


1930 A lesser year- cool, wet summer weather which was not

conducive to sufficient ripeness. Rainfall: 417 mm. Total production


1931 A lesser year-This year was cold and extremely wet. August was

a catastrophe and September poor.

1931 in the Médoc and the Blaye area. A difficult year. Rainfall: 488

Total production Gironde: 3.82 million hl

1932 A lesser year-A relatively cold year which was exceedingly-

wet, holding the record for precipitation: 677 mm in 7 months. It was

difficult to surmount crop diseases and all the wines were of poor

quality. Rainfall: 677 mm - Total production Gironde: 3.62 million

hl32

32 The Holodomor famine that took place in Soviet Ukraine during the 1932-1933 agricultural season when

the devastating famines also took place in several other regions of the USSR. The Holodomor ravaged the

rural population of the Ukrainian SSR, and is considered one of the greatest national catastrophes to affect

the Ukrainian nation in modern history. Estimates for the total number of casualties within Soviet Ukraine

35

35

1933 An average year- A hot but wet year. Few good wines were

produced and this vintage left no lasting memories. Rainfall: 427 mm

Total production Gironde: 3.36 million hl

1934 A very good year- wonderful summer. In terms of rainfall, this

year was normal and was also the vintage of both quality and quantity.

Second highest yield after 1922. Rainfall: 326 Total production


1935 An average year, comparable to 1938 and 1939- Rainfall: 326

mm-Total production Gironde: 4.39 million hl

1936 A lesser year- Rainfall: 349 Total production Gironde: 3.28

million hl

1937 A very good year- A very hot year with average rainfall -

Rainfall: 382 mm-Total production Gironde: 3.33 million hl- A

terrible hail storm in June wiped out almost all of the harvest - the

production volume was very low.

1938 An average year. Dry summer- Rainfall: 275 Total production

Gironde: 3.45 million - small harvest, c by h p v y ’

hail storm. - Date of the harvest: 26th September to 7th October.

range between 2.2 million and 3-3.5 million 4.5 to 5 million in the Encyclopedia Britannica , and much

higher figures - up to 20 million - in political debates

36

36

THE WORLD WAR II WINES

1939 An average year- clement weather for the harvest was however

disturbed by the eruption of World War II. (September 1939) -

Rainfall: 303 mm total production Gironde: 6.03 million hDate of the

harvest: 5th to 16th of October.

1940 An average year with above average rainfall; generally

comparable to the 1926 vintage. Rainfall: 339 mm Total production

Gironde: 3.03 million hl- Date of the harvest: 26th September to 5th

October.

Figure 9-John Lennon 1940-1980

37

37

1941 A lesser year- A very wet and cold year. Few good wines

produced. Rainfall: 536 mm Total production Gironde: 2.68 million hl

1942 An average year- Above average yet wet. Hopes for this vintage-

were disappointed, since most wines were harsh.- Rainfall: 414 Total


1943 A good year- A very good, very hot and relatively dry year. The

onslaught of war was detrimental to this vintage, and therefore one

was not able to extract all of its promising potential quality. An early

year with full flowering on the 29th of May. Rainfall: 282 mm Total


1944 An average year- This year was blessed with good weather-. It

was a good year on the whole, yet the wines are relatively modest. -

Rainfall: 302 Total production Gironde: 4.63 million hl

1945 An outstanding year- Victory year. Early growth occurred, but it

snowed on the 2nd of May in Bordeaux, leading to a hard frost which

wiped out 80% of the harvest. A very hot and especially dry summer

made the grapes extremely concentrated. Rainfall: 253 mm Total


Figure 10-Liberation-

History.com

THE POST WAR YEARS

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38

1946 An average year- This year was average, but the grapes did not

ripen welRainfall: 261 Total production Gironde: 2.88 million hl

1947 An outstanding year- hottest summer in 50 years and part of a

cycle of dry years (45, 46, 47 and 49). Drought - a scourge of

grasshoppers throughout south-west France and even in Bordeaux. 42

days of intense heat - water was rationed in the department of the

Gironde. An extraordinarily powerful wine. Rainfall: 259 Total


1948 An average year - Rainfall: 315 mm - Total production Gironde:

3.2 million hl

1949 An outstanding year- This year was dry, but above all very hot.

A great vintage, but one in which the winemaking process proved

difficult due to the high temperatures. The quality of the vintage was

generally first-rate. A wine of exceptional power. Rainfall: 286 Total


39

39

FROM THEN ON THE NUMBER OF DAYS ABOVE THE

T MP R TUR F 30˚ S T D

1950 A good year. Rainfall: 317 Total production Gironde: 5.5

million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 18.

1951 A lesser year- This second-rate year was relatively cold and

rainy, giving wines lacking character and body. Rainfall: 471 Total

production Gironde: 3.6 million hl - Number of days above 30°C : 6.

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40

1952 A good year. It all started with the signs of a wonderful vintage:

very hot in June (20.5°C) July (20.6°C) and August (20.6°C). From

the 4th

of September, rain and cold for 28 days in September. Not a

great vintage. Rainfall: 321 mm Total production Gironde: 3.5 million

hl- Number of days above 30°C: 18.

.

1953 A very good year- This is an August vintage, which was a

fabulous month, boasting 15 mm of rainfall and 15 days above 30°C

(86°F):. The September weather was more inclement and the harvest

was marked by rain. Great vintage- Rainfall: 300 Total production

Gironde: 5.5 million hl Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 14. Date of

the harvest: 29th September to 12th October.

1954 -33

A lesser year- very cold and relatively rainy year: July as 3°C

below average and August 2°C below. This was one of the coldest

years since the beginning of the century. A very uneven vintage but

very attractive wine. Rainfall: 319 Total production Gironde: 3.9

million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 3. Date of the harvest: 7th to

18th of October.

1955 A very good year- A glorious year. In fact, the rainfall pattern

was ideal, with June and July rainy, followed by a very hot and dry

August and dry September; ideal conditions for harvesting. Very good

wines comparable to 1949-Rainfall: 415 - Total production Gironde:

5.5 million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 13. Date of the harvest:

28th September to 10th October.

1956 A lesser year - a dramatic winter: -20°C- in February

accompanied by severe snowfalls (80 cm/2.6’) wh ch p yz h

33 1954 Greenland's coldest temperature on record; a reading of -66C is read during the British Greenland

Expedition at Northice (78.04N, 38.29W). http://wmo.asu.edu/western-hemisphere-lowest-temperature

41

41

region and its business. Many vines were wiped out by the cold. The

Garonne River partially iced over. Summer was cold and rainy (July:

112 mm; August: 104 mm). Rainfall: 456 Total production Gironde:

2.1 million hl - Number of days above 30°C: 4. Date of the harvest:

11th to 20th of October.

1957 An average year-Rainfall: 333 Total production Gironde: 2

million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 11. Date of the harvest: 1st to

12th October.

1958 A lesser year- A tragic month of August, during which 126 mm

of rain fell (more than twice the average). But it was followed by good

weather in September. At harvest time, six very hot days. Rainfall:

544 mm Total production Gironde: 2.9 million hl Number of days

above 30°C/86°F: 8. Date of the harvest: 6th to 18th of October. An

attractive bottle today. The wine remains a young wine. Deep colour,

complex wine. Ripe and smooth tannin. A marvelous, very La

Mission wine

1959 An outstanding year - The best year of the century. Harvest time

was very hot. Rainfall: 497 mm Total production Gironde: 3.0 million

hl Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 11. Date of the harvest: 24th

September to 3rd October.

1960 An average year. A very early year: full flowering occurred on

the 30th of May in Gironde. However, the summer was cold and wet,

with hardly any hot days at all: one in July, one in August, and none in

a cool month of September during which 177 mm of rain felRainfall:

489 Total production Gironde: 3.99 million hl- Number of days above

30°C: 5. However, very good wine for this vintage. Date of the

harvest: 19th to 29th September.

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42

1961 An outstanding year. The best vintage since the start of the

century: A short, intensely cold period at the end of May. The very

hot, but especially very dry summer (the driest on record) and fine

weather in September. Rainfall: 258 Total production Gironde: 2.78

million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 24. Date of the harvest: 12th

to 25th September.

1962 A good late year: the onset of ripening occurred around the 22nd

of August and the harvest in October. June was dry, July normal,

August dry, and September near average. The vintage is very good.

Rainfall: 261 Total production Gironde: 5.55 million hl Number of

days above 30°C: 14. Date of the harvest: 1st to 15th October.

Figure 11- Brigitte Bardo in 1963 - Born 1934- A good year for wine!

And for women too

1963 A lesser year- This poor year was cold and rain. Rainfall: 410

mm Total production Gironde: 4.98 million hl - Number of days

above 30°C: 6. Date of the harvest: 3rd to 16th of October.

43

43

1964 A very good year of early growth and good weather. June and

July were dry and hot; there were storms in August and hot weather in

September. It started to rain on the 5th

of October and continued for

three weeks. Rainfall: 301 Total production Gironde: 4.99 million hl-

Number of days above 30°C: 20. Today, the wine is excellent. Date of


1965 A lesser year- This year saw near normal months of August and

July (not very hot, yet with almost average rainfall – 42 mm in August

against an average of 50 mm), but a catastrophic September in which

212 mm of rain fell : 3 times the normaThe result was very dubious.

Rainfall: 461 mm - Total production Gironde: 4.12 million hl-

Number of days above 30°C: 8. Date of the harvest: 1st to 10th

October.

1966 A very good year- much rain in June, 1966 gradually turned out

to be a great vintage. The hot weather in August and dry and very hot

September determined quality34

. Rainfall: 373 Total production

Gironde: 4.55 million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 8. Date of the

harvest: 23rd September to 5th October.

34 This unusual heat caused the fire which ravaged the Calvet cellars on the 7th of September 1966.

44

44

Figure 12- Belfast musician David Mcwillams had a hit with "Days of

pearly Spencer"

1967 A good year- This year was normal and dry- Rainfall: 283 Total

production Gironde: 4.93 million hl- Number of days above

30°C/86°F: 12. An excellent wine for this vintage. Date of the harvest:


1968 A lesser year- Late growth but normal temperatures marked this

year. The months of August and September were very rainy, with 161

mm and 97 mm respectively. The grapes were impaired long before

the harvest. Few good wines were produced this year. Rainfall: 568

Total production Gironde: 4.89 million hl- Number of days above

30°C/86°F: 8. - Date of the harvest: 27th September to 7th October.

THE SUMMER OF LOVE 1969

45

45

Janis Joplin Cover 35

Janis was born in 1943 and much like the wine of that year, was not able

to extract all of her promising potential quality (see 1943 wine comments

above)

1969 A lesser but normal year: July hot and dry, as was August-

September very rainy (206 mm of rain fell in 23 days).Rainfall: 585

mm - Total production Gironde: 3.16 million hl- Number of days

above 30°C/86°F: 12.- A very harmonious wine. Date of the harvest:


1970 A good year- (just 12 very hot days), summer dry and September

pleasant. This produced a plentiful harvest of very high quality. The

region produced excellent wines across the board - Rainfall: 279 Total

35 Scan of part of the Vinyl cover- Fair use – from wikipedia

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46

production Gironde: 5.49 million hl Number of days above 30°C: 12.

Date of the harvest: 25th September to 2nd October.

1971 A very good year- poor weather around flowering (May). July

very hot (23°C/73.4°F on average), with 11 very hot days, as was

August, yet September was rainy. Rainfall: 474 mm Total production

Gironde: 3.73 million hl –

Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 11. - Date of the harvest: 28th

September to 4th October.

1972 A lesser year- coldest, latest year on record. Fine, dry weather

during harvesting, lack of sunshine - cold, dry month of September

(15°C on average). Rainfall: 360 Total production Gironde: 3.96

million hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 5. - Date of the harvest:

8th to 14th of October.

1973 An average year 1973 witnessed a very hot August

(22.8°C/73.04°F on average), the hottest since 1949, but July was very

rainy (w h 114 mm/4.49” f ) w September. Rainfall: 369

mm-Total production Gironde: 5.63 million hl- Number of days above

30°C: 18. Date of the harvest: 26th September to 6th October.

1974 An average year - hot or normal months of June and August.

July normal- rains in September (100 mm) along with the cold. The

wines were very good. Rainfall: 359 Total production Gironde: 5.47

million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 14. Date of the harvest: 29th


1975 A very good year- June and July were very hot, but September

was more variable. The weather was good during harvesting. Rich,

powerful wines- Rainfall: 325 Total production Gironde: 4.20 million

47

47

hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 15. - Date of the harvest: 25th


1976 A good year- Record temperatures were logged for a year that

was the hottest of the last twenty-seven and extremely dry in April (22

mm of rain), June (7 mm/.27”), J y (45 mm/1.77”) August (72

mm/3.03”), wh ch b gh strong storms. Alas, September was

rainy (98 mm/3.85”), R f : 427 mm-Total production Gironde:

5.50 million hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 27. Date of the

harvest: 13th to 24th September.

1977 An average year- Hard frosts at Easter (10th of April). This was

a fairly cold year- erratic weather. Rainfall: 433 mm-Total production

Gironde: 2.48 million hl-Number of days above 30°C: 0. Date of the


1978 A good year- very wet winter and cool, moist spring, a beautiful

summer with 12 very hot days. Dry and fine weather in autumn. The

wines were a great success. Rainfall: 337 mm-Total production

Gironde: 3.96 million hl-Number of days above 30°C: 11.-Date of the


1979 A very good year- wet spring, hot summer in July, cool in

August, but dry weather overal3 very hot days. Rainfall: 427 Total

production Gironde: 6.20 million hl- Number of days above 30°C:

11.a powerful wine. Date of the harvest: 1st to 11th October.

1980 An average year- wet and cold spring - high winds. Fine weather

in September allowing the harvest to take place in good conditions.

Rainfall: 394 Total production Gironde: 3.66 million hl- Number of

days above 30°C: 8. Date of the harvest: 6th to 18th of October.

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48

1981 A good year- average spring- several very hot days in June.

August was very hot and dry, with constant winds from the north.

September satisfactory apart from some rain before harvesting. The

weather was good during harvesting.-Rainfall: 309 - Total production

Gironde: 4.00 million hl- Number of days above 30°C: 13 - Date of


Figure 13-The wall- 1982 Album by Pink Flyod

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49

198236

An outstanding year- dry in April, fine and dry in May, a few

storms in June, before a sunny and hot month of July - on the 8th of

this month the temperatures reached 40°C. August was cooler, but the

weather was fine, and even more so during harvesting. These were

ideal conditions for a great wine. Rainfall: 402 mm. Total production

Gironde: 5.96 million hl - Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 16. A

superb vintage. Date of the harvest: 15th to 24th September.

1983 A good year- A very wet- spring -dry hot month of June - very

hot July, with 2 weeks of extreme heat but also storms, hail on the 3rd

and 4th of July. August was hot and wet, almost tropical - The

weather was good during harvesting. Rainfall: 477 mm Total

production Gironde: 5.1 million hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F:

21. Date of the harvest: 26th September to 7th October.

1984 An average year- wet, cool spring, a hot dry July with 8 very hot

days. Normal weather in autumn. Rainfall: 422 Total production

Gironde: 3.5 million hl - Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 13.

Harmonious, well structured Date of the harvest: 27th September to

12th October.

1985 A very good year- exceptional autumn and very dry year, one of

the driest of the century: the grapes even started to wither on the vines

at the beginning of September. Several days of early morning- fog in

late September. Rainfall: 368 mm - Total production Gironde: 5.4

million hl - Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 17. An extraordinary

wine. Date of the harvest: 23rd September to 8th October.

1986- A good year- Spring cold, but as of June the fine weather

helped flowering. After a hot and especially dry summer, the good

36 El Chichon eruption - April 1982, Mexico, did not seems to have had an influence on the French climate

at all, it was a good warm year at least in the summer

50

50

weather at harvesting. Rainfall: 386 mm Total production Gironde:

6.7 million hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 18. Good very

tannic wine. Date of the harvest: 29th September to 10th October.

1987- An average year- irregularity- However, September outstanding

with 10 days above the 30°C (86°F) mark. Rainfall: 353 mm Total


30°C/86°F: 24.A very pleasant wine. Date of the harvest: 28th


1988 - A very good year - wetness and mildness in winter and spring -

dry and relatively warm summer. Some rain fell in September

.Rainfall: 365 Total production Gironde: 4.99 million hl- Number of

days above 30°C/86°F: 11. This is an exceptionally colorful and

tannic wine; this vintage does not seem to bear resemblance to recent

years. The greatest similarity is over the last thirty years: 1966. Date

of the harvest: 28th September to 14th October.

1989 A very outstanding year- especially warm, sunny and dry. An

outstanding wine. Rainfall: 359 mm Total production Gironde: 6.50

million hl -Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 22. Harvesting took

place in August for the white wine and started on the 31st of the same

month for the red. Date of the harvest: 29th August to 20th

September.

1990 An outstanding year - mild winter - early budding. Spring was

cool, summer months were amongst the hottest and driest on record. A

little rain in September. Rainfall: 291 mm Total production Gironde:

6.81 million hl - Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 31. The wine has

dense tannic structure- Date of the harvest: 4th to 28th September.

1991 A good year- springtime frosts. Early budding in late February,

terrible frosts struck on the night of the 20th and 21st of April (the

51

51

cold lasted throughout the night, reaching -7°C in certain vineyards.

July and August were very hot and dry. Harvesting took place in hot

but rainy weather. Rainfall: 473 Total production Gironde: 2.70

million hl -Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 22. The wine is first-

rate- Date of the harvest: 24th September to 8th October.

1992 - An average year- A dry winter -dry, hot month of May, then a

wet June for flowering. July and August hot, but the latter brought

with it much rain- mildew and botrytis. Rainfall: 697 mm Total


30°C/86°F: 20. j y b k v y ’ m . Date of the

harvest: 17th September to 7th October.

1993 A good year- Mildness in spring- early budding. Summer started

with dry but cool weather. August was fine, hot and dry. Rainfall: 655

mm Total production Gironde: 5.93 million hl -Number of days above

30°C/86°F: 15. Very fine Haut-Brion. Date of the harvest: 16th to

29th September.

1994 - A good year- early growth - mild winter. Spring was rather

cool and wet, slowing growth. A hot summer with some spectacular

storms. Rain in September. Rainfall: 623 mm Total production

Gironde: 5.67 million hl Number of days above 30°C: 27. Harmony

embodies this wine- Date of the harvest: 12th to 24th September.

1995 - A very good and early year. Winter gentle and spring hot and

dry. June, July and August high temperatures and lack of rain. Cooler

weather in September and heavy rains in the middle of the month.

Rainfall: 348 mm Total production Gironde: 6.53 million hl- Number

of days above 30°C: 30. This wine is brimming with tannic structure.

Date of the harvest: 11th to 26th September.

52

52

1996 –

A good year- inconsistency of the weather. No periods of sustained heat

apart from a few days in July. Rains towards the end of August. September,

good weather in the first half and a lot of rain in the second. Rainfall: 516

Total production Gironde: 6.41 million hl Number of days above 30°C: 23.

Temperatures and rainfall were above average this year. A very good wine

overal Date of the harvest: 16th September to 4th October.

1997

- An average year, a hot, dry start to the year led to exceptionally early

growth in the spring. There was unprecedented flowering on the vines at the

end of April. At the beginning of May, showers delayed the end of flowering

by more than a month. The September drought made for a trouble-free

harvest and compensated for the uneven ripening. Rainfall: 472 mm - Total

production Gironde: 6.68 million hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 22.

Good harmony for this vintage. Date of the harvest: 16th September to 4th

October.

1998

A very good year- The rainfall was 3 times higher than the previous thirty-

year average. May dry, June normal, and July normal, two days of storms

produced heavy downpours. August was exceptionally hot, which gave a

great boost to the harvest. Rainfall: 537 - Total production Gironde: 6.58

million hl- A fine wine which will have to be waited for. Number of days

above 30°C: 21. Date of the harvest: 15th to 30th September.37

37 Meanwhile, back in North America, the jet streams that travel 5 to 8 miles [8 to 13 kilometers] above

h’ f c h f m c y. Th p j m y f h h over Canada than usual;

as a result, less cold air moves into the upper United States. In fact, northern-tier states saved an estimated

five billion dollars in heating costs during the 1997-98 El Niño. (http://www.sparticl.org/topic/el-nino-and-

la-nina/view/national-geographic-magazine-article-el-nino-la-nina-part-1/)

53

53

THE YEAR OF THE ECLIPSE OF THE SUN

Figure 14-eclipse 1999-

1999 A good year- The penultimate

year of this millennium was marked

by rare weather conditions. There was

a solar eclipse on the 11th of August.

Then, two very violent storms shook

the South-west: the one on the 7th of

August was furious but very short; the

other, on the 27th of December, was

exceptionally fierce, lasting from

sunset to the middle of the night. It

was on average a hot year, 2°C above

normal temperatures recorded in the

last 40 years. Rainfall: 567 mm -

Total production Gironde: 6.81

million hl- an exceptionally delightful

wine. Number of days above 30°C:

18. Date of the harvest: 30th August

to 24th September.

THE NEW MILLENNIUM

2000 - An outstanding year-A mild start, very wet, hot spring, dry,

scorching summer: Temperature records broken: 1.5°C above average.

September, hot and dry - conditions. Rainfall: 436 mm total

production Gironde: 6.80 million hl- An extraordinary wine. Number

of days above 30°C/86°F: 21. Date of the harvest: 13th to 29th

September.

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54

2001 A very good year- Weather conditions were fairly similar to

those of 2000. July and August were very hot (22 days where

maximum temperatures exceeded 30°C/86°F), and only two days of

heavy rain were recorded between the 20th of July and 20th

of

September. At the start of harvesting the fruit was perfectly ripe and in

excellent health. During this time the weather stayed very clement,

generally hot and dry, except for two days of heavy storms on the

22nd of September and 3rd of October when harvesting was

suspended. Rainfall: 335 mm –Total production Gironde: 6.56 million

hl - All is mellowness, yet this wine should be left to age to reach its

peak. Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 32. Date of the harvest: 17th


2002 A good year- the year was very dry, but the low rainfall as well

spread out. A slightly cool summer delayed ripening, but conditions

became ideal for harvesting from the 9th of September onward:

relatively hot, sunny days, and an unusual north-easterly wind for the

season. Rainfall: 336 mm - Total production Gironde: 5.61 million hl-.

Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 14. Date of the harvest: 19th

September to 8th October. To drink ideally around: 2010/2020.

2003 An outstanding year 2003 was without a doubt a very

exceptional year in terms of the weather. Although it did not beat the

record for lowest rainfall, attained in 1961 (258 mm) for the period

April to September inclusive, 2003 comes immediately afterwards

with 263 mm. The hundred-year average is 410 mm and in the wettest

year; in 1992, 697 mm of rain felHowever, in terms of temperature, all

the records were broken. Accumulated average daily temperatures for

the above period were around 3,161, with the hottest year (1997) until

then reaching 3,494, but for 2003 the figure was 3,696; while the

average for very hot days above 30°C/86°F is 16, there were 49 in

2003, more than three times as many! Rainfall: 263 mm Total

production Gironde: 5.49 million hl Number of days above 30°C: 49.

55

55

Date of the harvest: 19th Aug. to 15th Sept. 2003-Seasons and

Vintages Seasons and Vintages

2004 A very good year- The year 2004 began with an extremely-rainy

month of January. In spite of this-marked humid start up, the year

2004 turned out to be short on the humidity factor. The flowering at

the beginning of June took place under perfect climate conditions and

was swift with a pleasing equilibrium. The August rain was for the

most part concentrated during the last two week. The picking of the

white grapes began on September 6th and the red grapes on

September 16th. Rainfall: 325 mm Total production Gironde: 6.66

million hl- Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 21. Date of the harvest:

6th Sept.-6th Oct.

2005 A very outstanding year 2005 will remain in our memories as a

historically dry year. A year of great heat and drought, this

characteristic showed up already in winter when an important deficit

of humidity was noted. In spite of a wet month in April, rain remained

scarce right up to the vendanges. All year long the temperatures

stayed on the high side. 2005 had climatic conditions very similar to

the legendary vintage of 1949. Because of these elements the vines

were able to produce small grapes of an extraordinary concentration,

actually never before achieved, that would be harvested in a perfect

condition. The vendanges started on August 24th for the whites and

on August 31st for the reds, placing the vintage alongside other years

with unduly early harvests. Rainfall: 229 mm Total production

Gironde: 6 million hl-Number of days above 30°C/86°F: 32. Date of

the harvest: 24th Aug.-26th Sept.

2006 - A year of contrasts and extremes. We have finished harvesting

our grapes at on September 29th. The harvest started on August 29th

with the picking of our white grapes. We started with the Sauvignons

56

56

and followed on with the Semillons on September 4th. After this, we

began harvesting our red grapes beginning with the Merlots on

September 7th and continuing on with the Cabernet Francs on

September 18th. On September 21st we began picking the Cabernet

Sauvignons 2006 was characterized by frequent climactic changes

shifting from one extreme to another. And this pattern continued on

until the end of the harvest. On Tuesday, October 3rd, we were

surprised in the early hours by a huge storm which approached in

intensity the one that hit us in 1999. Fortunately, the ferocity of the

winds did not last as long as in 1999. However, it was sufficiently

strong to bring down quite a number of trees in the park and gardensxiv

The 2007 vintage may the one of the extremes: we experienced

stressful weather last summer, an extremely long vegetative cycle

started very early in April and finished very late (with the harvest of

the cabernets-sauvignons mid-October), a historic Indian summer in

Bordeaux - September will remain the sunniest for the past 60 years. It

is the year of white wine.xv

La Nina years: 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938,

La Niña years: 1950, 1954- 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995 2007-

200838

El Nino years

1951, 1953, 1957-1958, 1965, 1969, 1972-1973, 1976, 1982-1983, 1986-

1987, 1991-1992, 1993-1994 and 1997-1998.39

2001-2002-2003, 2004-2005

and 2006-200740

Normal year : 1984-1985

38 http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/lanina.html 39 http://www.oar.noaa.gov/k12/html/elnino2.html 40 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Nina

57

57

YEARS Rainfall

in mm

comments Yearly

index of

average

yearly

temperature

NUMBER

OF DAYS

ABOVE 30

degree C

58

58

1950

A good year.

317 Production

5.5 million hl-

Number of

days above

30°C: 18.

-1.18

LA NINA

18

1951

wines

lacking

character and

body

471 Cold and

rainy,

production

3.6 M. hl -

Number of

days above

30°C: 6.

normal

-0.11

6

1952 not a

great vintage

A good year.

very hot

summer

From the 4th

of

September,

rain and cold

for 28 days

321 Number of

days above

30°C 18.

-0.04

Normal

18

1953

great vintage

A very good

300 Number of

days above

30°C 14. Date

0.36

14

59

59

year- August

vintage,

fabulous

month

of the harvest

29th

September to

12th October.

Normal

1954

Coldest years

since the

beginning of

the century...

rainy year.

but very

attractive

wine

319

July as 3°C

below average

and August

2°C below.

Days above

30°C: 3. Date

of the harvest

7th to 18th of

October.

-0.61

LA NINA

3

1955

great

vintage-

August

vintage,

which was a

fabulous

month

300 Number of

days above

30°C 14. Date

of the harvest

29th

September to

12th October.

-1.11

LA NINA

14

60

60

September

inclement

harvest was

marked by

rain.

1956

A lesser year

- Minus

20°C in

February a

dramatic

winter -

Many vines

were wiped

out by the

cold. cold

and rainy

456 Severe

snowfalls,

The Garonne

river partially

iced over.

(July 112;

August 104).

Number of

days above

30°C 4. Date

of the harvest

11th to 20th

of October.

-0.72

LA NINA

4

1957

An average

year-

333 Days above

30°C 11.

Harvest 1st to

12th October.

0.55

EL NINO

11

61

61

1958

A lesser

year- August,

126 of rain

fell (more

than twice

the average).

Good

weather in

September.

At harvest

time, six

very hot

days.

544 Number of

days above

30°C 8. Date

of the harvest

6th to 18th of

October... 0.66

EL NINO

8

1959

outstanding

year - The

best year of

the century.

Harvest time

was very hot

497 Days above

30°C 11.

Harvest 24th

September to

3rd October.

-0.02

NORMAL

11

1960 average

year.

Very good

wine. the

summer was

cold and wet,

with hardly

any hot days

489 Cool month

of September

177 of rain

felNumber of

days above

30°C 5.

Harvest 19th

to 29th

-0.14

NORMAL

5

62

62

at all September.

1961

Short,

intensely

cold period

at the end of

May.

Very hot dry

(the driest on

record) and

fine weather

in

September.

258 Number of

days above

30°C 24. Date

of the harvest

12th to 25th

September.

-0.17

NORMAL

24

1962

August dry

and

September

near average.

The vintage

is very good.

261 Number of

days above

30°C 14. Date

of the harvest

1st to 15th

October.

-0.41

Normal

14

1963

A lesser

year- This

poor year

was cold and

rainy

410 Number of

days above

30°C 6. Date

of the harvest

3rd to 16th of

October.

0.30

Normal

6

63

63

1964

A very good

year of early

growth and

good

weather.

June and July

were dry and

hot; storms

in August,

and hot

weather in

September

301 Number of

days above

30°C 20. Date

of the harvest

28th

September to

6th October.

-0.42

weak LA

NINA

20

1965

Normal

months of

August and

July (not

very hot) -

average –

catastrophic

September in

which 212 of

rain fell 3

461 The result

was very

dubious. -

Number of

days above

30°C 8. Date

of the harvest

1st to 10th

October.

0.49

Mild EL

NINO

8

64

64

times the

normal.

1966

A very good

year- much

rain in June,

1966

gradually

turned out to

be a great

vintage. The

hot weather

in August

and dry and

very hot

September

determined

quality

373 Number of

days above

30°C 8. Date

of the harvest

23rd

September to

5th October.

0.39

EL NINO

8

1967

A good year-

This year

was normal

and dry-

283

-0.33

NORMAL

65

65

1968

Lesser year.

Late growth

but normal

temperatures

marked this

year...

The months

of August

and

September

were very

rainy.

568

Number of

days above

30°C: 8.

-0.21

NORMAL

8

1969

A lesser but

normal year

July hot and

dry, as was

August-

September

very rainy

585 Number of

days above

30°C 12.-

206 of rain

fell in 23 days

0.69

EL NINO

12

1970

good year-

summer dry

279

12 very hot

days

-0.19

NORMAL

12

66

66

and

September

pleasant

1971

A very good

year-

474 Poor weather

around

flowering

(May).

July very hot

(23°C on

average), with

11 very hot

days, as was

August, yet

September

was rainy.

-0.97

LA NINA

11

1972 lesser

year- coldest,

latest year on

record. fine,

dry weather

during

harvesting,

360 Cold, dry

month of

September

(15°C on

average).

Number of

days above

0.66

EL NINO

5

67

67

lack of

sunshine -

30°C 5

1973

An average

year. a very

hot August

the hottest

since 1949,

369 July was

very rainy

as was

September.

Number of

days above

30°C 18.

-0.31

NORMAL

18

1974 average

year hot or

normal

months of

June and

August. July

normal- the

wines were

very good.

359 Rains in

September

(100)

along with

the cold.

Number of

days above

30°C 14.

-0.94

LA NINA

14

1975

very good

year- June

and July

were very

hot, but

September

325 Variable.

The

weather

was good

during

harvesting.

Rich,

powerful

wines-

Number of

days above

30°C 15

-1.04

LA NINA

15

68

68

1976

good year-

Record

temperatures

hottest of the

last 27 and

extremely

dry in April

427 Strong

storms.

September

was rainy

million hl-

Number of

days above

30°C 27.

-0.32

LA NINA

27

1977 average

year- Hard

frosts at

Easter This

was a fairly

cold year-

erratic

weather.

433 Number of

days above

30°C 0.

0.42

EL NINO

0

1978

Good year-

wet winter

and cool,

moist spring,

a beautiful

summer dry

and fine

weather in

Autumn.

337 Number of

days above

30°C 11.

-0.11

LA NINA

11

1979

A very good

year- wet

spring, hot

summer in

427

Number of

days above

30°C 11.a

powerful

wine.

0.14

11

69

69

July, cool in

August, but

dry weather

overal

EL NINO

1980 average

year- wet and

cold spring -

high winds.

Fine weather

in September

allowing the

harvest to

take place in

good

conditions.

394 Number of

days above

30°C 8. Date

of the harvest

6th to 18th of

October.

0.21

EL NINO

8

1981

Good year-

average

spring-

several very

hot days in

June. August

very hot and

dry, winds

from the

north.

September

rain before

harvesting.

The weather

good during

harvesting.

309 Number of

days above

30°C 13

-0.27

LA NINA

13

1982 402 August 0.73 16

70

70

outstanding

year- dry in

April, fine

and dry in

May, a few

storms in

June, before

a sunny and

hot July -

temperatures

reached

40°C.

cooler,

weather was

fine.

Number of

days above

30°C 16. Date

of the harvest

15th to 24th

September.

EL NINO

1983 good

year- A very

wet- spring -

dry hot

month of

June - very

hot July,

with 2 weeks

of extreme

heat but also

storms, hail

on the 3rd

and 4th of

July. August

was hot and

wet, almost

tropical -

477 Number of

days above

30°C 21. Date

of the harvest

26th

September to

7th October.

The weather

was good

during

harvesting.

0.8

EL NINO

21

1984 422 Number of -0.32 13

71

71

An average

year- wet,

cool spring, a

hot dry July

with 8 very

hot days.

Normal

weather in

autumn.

days above

30°C 13.

Harmonious,

well

structured

Date of the

harvest 27th

September to

12th October.

NORMAL

YEAR

1985 A very

good year-

exceptional

autumn and

very dry

year, one of

the driest of

the century-

fog in late

September.

368 N. of days

above 30°C

17. Date of

the harvest

23rd

September to

8th October.

-0.7

NORMAL

YEAR

17

1986

Good year-

Spring cold,

but as of

June the fine

weather

helped

flowering. A

386

Number of

days above

30°C 18.

Date of the

harvest 29th

September to

10th October.

Good weather

0.05

EL NINO

18

72

72

hot and dry

summer,

at harvesting.

1987 An

average year-

A very

pleasant

353

Irregularity-

However,

September

outstanding

with 10 days

above

Number of

days above

30°C: 24.

Date of the

30°C mark.

harvest 28th

September to

13th October

EL NINO

1.33

24

1988

A very good

year -

wetness and

mildness in

winter and

spring - dry

and

relatively

365 Number of

days above

30°C 11. Date

of the harvest

28th

September to

14th October.

-0.67

LA NINA

11

73

73

warm

summer.

Some rain

September

1989

outstanding

year-

especially

warm, sunny

and dry. An

outstanding

wine.

359 Number of

days above

30°C 22.

Harvesting

took place in

August for the

white wine

and started on

the 31st of the

same month

for the red.

Date of the

harvest 29th

August to

20th

September.

-0.81

LA NINA

22

1990 An

outstanding

year - mild

winter - early

budding.

Spring was

cool, summer

months .The

wine has

dense tannic

structure-

291 Amongst the

hottest and

driest on

record. A

little rain in

September.

Total

production

Number of

days above

30°C 31. Date

of the harvest

0.24

Normal

31

74

74

4th to 28th

September.

1991

outstanding

year - mild

winter - early

budding.

Spring was

cool, summer

months were

amongst the

hottest and

driest on

record. A

little rain in

September.

291 Number of

days above

30°C 31. The

wine has

dense tannic

structure-

Date of the

harvest 4th to

28th

September.

0.65

EL NINO

31

1992

Average

year- A dry

winter -dry,

hot month of

May, then a

wet June for

flowering.

July and

August hot,

but the latter

brought with

it much rain-

mildew and

botrytis.

697 Number of

days above 30

C. 20.

Enjoyable to

drink in

v y ’

time. Date of

the harvest

17th

September to

7th October.

0.9

EL NINO

20

1993 good 655 Mildness in 0.47 15

75

75

year- spring-

early

budding.

Summer

started with

dry but cool

weather.

August was

fine and dry.

hot Number

of days above

30°C 15.

Very fine

Haut-Brion.

Date of the

harvest 16th

to 29th

September.

MILD EL

NINO

1994 A good

year- early

growth -

mild winter.

Spring was

rather cool

and wet,

slowing

growth. A

hot summer

with some

spectacular

storms. Rain

in

September.

623 Number of

days above

30°C 27.

Harmony

embodies this

wine- Date of

the harvest

12th to 24th

September.

0.43

MILD EL

NINO

27

1995 A very

good and

early year.

Winter

gentle and

spring hot

and dry.

June, July

348 Number of

days above

30°C 30. Date

of the harvest

11th to 26th

September.

0.19

Normal

30

76

76

and August

high

temperatures

and lack of

rain. Cooler

weather in

September

and heavy

rains in the

middle of the

month.

1996 A good

year-

inconsistency

of the

weather. No

periods of

sustained

heat apart

from a few

days in July.

Rains

towards the

end of

August.

September,

good weather

in the first

half and a lot

of rain in the

second.

516 Number of

days above

30°C 23.

Temperatures

and were

above average

this year. A

very good

wine

overalDate of

the harvest

16th

September to

4th October.

-0.33

LA NINA

23

1997 An

average year,

472 Number of

days above

0.99

22

77

77

a hot, dry

start to the

year led to

early growth

in the spring.

The

September

drought

made for a

trouble-free

harvest

30°C 22.

Good

harmony for

this vintage.

Date of the

harvest 16th

September to

4th October.

EL NINO

1998 A very

good year-

May dry,

June normal,

and July

normal, two

days of

storms.

August was

exceptionally

hot.

537 Number of

days above

30°C 21. Date

of the harvest

15th to 30th

September.

0.31

NORMAL

21

1999 A good

year, two

very violent

storms shook

the South-

west the one

on the 7th of

August was

furious but

very short;

the other, on

567 Number of

days above

30°C 18. Date

of the harvest

30th August

to 24th

September.

It was on

average a hot

year, 2°C

above normal

-1.01

LA NINA

18

78

78

the 27th of

December,

was

exceptionally

fierce.

temperatures

recorded in

the last 40

years.

2000

outstanding

year-A mild

start, very

wet, hot

spring, dry,

scorching

Temperature

records

broken 1.5°C

above

average.

September,

hot and dry -

conditions.

summer

436 C 21.

-0.78

LA NINA

21

2001 335 30°C -0.19

LA NINA

32

2002 336 EL NINO

0.62

14

2003 263 EL NINO.

0.43

49

2004. 325

EL NINO

0.49

21

2005 229 EL NINO

0.39

32

2006 EL NINO

79

79

0.12

2007 -Storm in

Brittany 8th

of

December

-0.15

LA NINA

2008 -0.57

LA NINA

Year Average El Nino/La

Nina/normal

1950 -1.18 La Nina

1951 -0.11 La Nina

1952 -0.04 Normal

1953 0.36 Normal

1954 -0.61 La Nina

1955 -1.11 La Nina

1956 -0.72 La Nina

1957 0.55 El Nino

1958 0.66 El Nino

1959 -0.02 La Nina

1960 -0.14 La Nina

1961 -0.17 La Nina

1962 -0.41 La Nina

1963 Eruption

March Mt.

Agung

(Indonesia)

0.3 Normal

1964 -0.42 La Nina

1965 0.49 El Nino

80

80

1966 0.39 El Nino

1967 -0.33 La Nina

1968 -0.21 La Nina

1969 0.69 El Nino

1970 -0.19 La Nina

1971 -0.97 La Nina

1972 0.66 El Nino

1973 -0.31 El Nino

1974 -0.94 La Nina

1975 -1.04 La Nina

1976 -0.32 El Nino

1977 0.42 El Nino

1978 -0.11 La Nina

1979 0.14 Normal

1980 eruption of

Mount St.

Helens,

Washington,

USA, on

May 18,

1980, and a

large

eruption of

Mount

Hekla,

Iceland, on

August 17,

1980.

0.21 Normal

1981 -0.27 Norma

1982 El Chichon

in 1982-

Mexico

0.73 El Nino

81

81

1983 0.8 El Nino

1984 -0.32 La Nina

1985 -0.7 La Nina

1986 0.05 Normal

1987 1.33 El Nino

1988 -0.67 La Nina

1989 -0.81 La Nina

1990 0.24 La Nina

1991 June 1991

eruption of

Mount

Pinatubo,

Philipines

0.65 El Nino

1992 0.9 El Nino

1993 0.47 El Nino

1994 0.43 El Nino

1995 0.19 La Nina

1996 -0.33 La Nina

1997 0.99 El Nino

1998 0.31 El Nino

1999 -1.01 La Nina

2000 -0.78 La Nina

2001 -0.19 La Nina

2002 0.62 El Nino

2003 0.43 El Nino

2004 0.49 El Nino

2005 0.39 El Nino

2006 0.12 mormal

2007 -0.15 La Nina

2008 -0.57 La Nina

2009 cold La Nina

82

82

2010 cold La Nina

2011 cold La Nina

2012 cold La Nina

2013 Heat in

Europe

late

summer

La Nina- El

Nino

2014 Predicted

hot

summer

El Nino

Rainfall Bordeaux 1950-2005

10

1112

1314

15

16

17

18

19

2022

23

25

26272829

3031

32

3334

35

36

37

38

3940424445

4647

4849

50

51

52

53

5455

56

5758

59

60

61

7543

2

1

8

9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61

83

83

Hots days 1950-2005

1011

12

13

14

15

16

1718 20

212223

24

25

2627

28

29

303132

3334

35

36

3738

39

40

41

4243

44

45

4647

48495051

52

53

54

55

56

57

7

6

5432

1

89-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57

84

84

El Nino index 1950-2008

101112

13

14

15

1617

1819

20

21

22

23

24

2526

27

28

29

3031

32

3334

35

36

37

38

3940

41

42

43

4445

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

545556

57

58

59

765432

1

8

9-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

85

85

RAINFALL BORDEAUX 1950-2005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

86

86

Deviation from Average Bordeaux rainfall 1950-2005

1011

1213

14

15

16

17

18

1920

21

22

232425

26

2728

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

3637

383940

4142

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

5253

54

55

56

7

6

5

432

1

8

9-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55

87

87

Average El Nino Index 1950-1959

10

76

54

3

2

1

8

9

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

88

88

RAINFALL BORDEAUX 1950-1959

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CONCLUSION:

El Nino does not affect only the South American coast, but the climate of the

whole planet. It start in the South Pacific, and rapidly travel up the coast of

south America then turns west toward Australia, from there it influence the

climate of Asia and Africa, then perhaps to a less extent to Europe..It takes

about a year and a half for its influence to reach Europe, causing excessive

heat, floods and storms...

If we take the phenomenon into consideration for our medium term climatic

forecast we can more precisely warm the population of possible climatic

extremes and lessen their effects and possibly save lives.

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1. http//www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/presse/faq-s/das-el-nino-southern-

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15. http://haut-brion.com/home/en/langflash-en.php-Delmas J.P. Chateau

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ENDNOTES

Contact details: [email protected]

i http://www.dfg.ca.gov/marine/elnino.asp ii http://www.atmos.umd.edu/people/faculty.php?view=63 iii http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/28/tech/main2523483.shtml iv Ibid v El Nino and La Nina Causes and Global Consequences Michael J McPhaden

Volume 1, The Earth system: physical and chemical dimensions of global environmental change,

pp 353–370 vi http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg12517063.100-science-el-nino-events-devastated-two-ancient-

civilisations.html vii viii REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, VOLEROY LADURIE45, RG3003, doi:10.1029/2006RG000199, 2007

Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climateS. Brönnimann

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland ix http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg14119081.200-fire-and-flood-greet-el-ninos-third-year-.html x http://www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/diplom_nmeier.pdf

xi ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/france/burgundy2004.txt

93

93

xii Ibid xiii

http://www.nias.knaw.nl/en/press_releases/ladurie/ xiv Delmas J.P. Chateau Haut-Brion- http://haut-brion.com/home/en/langflash-en.php xv http://www.lafragette.com/uk/actualites/index.asp?idactu=6

INFLUENCE OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE AND WINE OF EUROPE

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