Bajaj Finance Ltd. - HDFC securities

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Initiating Coverage Bajaj Finance Ltd. 07-September-2020

Transcript of Bajaj Finance Ltd. - HDFC securities

Bajaj Finance Ltd.

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Initiating Coverage

Bajaj Finance Ltd. 07-September-2020

Bajaj Finance Ltd.

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Industry LTP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon

BFSI-NBFC Rs 3597 Buy on dips to Rs 3145-3151 band and add further

in Rs 2963-2969 band Rs 3488 Rs 3840 2 quarters

Our Take:

Bajaj Finance (BFL) has consistently delivered strong performance across fronts. Over FY13-20, its AUM grew at a CAGR of ~35%, RoAEs averaged ~19.6%, and GNPAs continued to be under control (below 1.7%). However, its near-term performance is likely to be a stark contrast compared to its historical growth trajectory mainly on account of COVID-19 impact. The recent lockdown and its extension is likely to have a significant impact on BFL’s growth rate thereby putting pressure on the company’s abilities to recover its dues. The moratorium announced by the RBI is further likely to increase the stress on its asset quality. We have built in higher credit costs for FY21 on account of accelerated provisioning taken by the company in Q4FY20 and Q1FY21. The company remains comfortably placed on liquidity front. BFL’s well-matched assets and liabilities is mainly driven by its relatively shorter tenor of advances portfolio. In addition to this it also helps in maintaining adequate liquidity buffers which provides support during market downturns. We remain confident of the of the BFL’s ability to deliver better-than sector returns over the medium-to-long term.

Valuations & Recommendation: We believe within the NBFC space, BFL offers a unique long term sustainable growth model with strong moat and superior return ratios. This underpins our positive stance. We feel the base case fair value of the stock is Rs 3488 (5.0x FY22E ABV) and bull case fair value is Rs 3840 (5.5x FY22E ABV). Investors can buy the stock in the price band of Rs 3145-3151 (4.5x FY22E ABV) and add on declines to Rs 2963-2969 band (4.25x FY22E ABV)

Financial Summary

Particulars (Rs cr) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY-% Q4FY20 QoQ-% FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Operating Income 4151 3688 -29.1 4679 -52.1 11878 16912 17365 20308

PPoP 2995 2402 -30.3 3232 -55.3 7681 11252 11511 13387

PAT 962 1195 -28.3 948 -49.8 3995 5264 4299 6947

EPS (Rs) 16.0 20.7 -45.6 15.8 -66.4 69.3 87.7 71.7 115.8

P/E (x) 51.9 41.0 50.2 31.1

P/ABV (x) 10.9 6.9 6.3 5.2

RoAA (%) 3.8 3.6 2.6 3.7 (Source: Company, HDFC sec)

HDFC Scrip Code BAJFIN

BSE Code 500034

NSE Code BAJFINANCE

Bloomberg BFL IN

CMP Sep 04, 2020 3596.8

Eq .Capital (cr) 120.5

Face Value (Rs) 2.0

Eq. Shares O/S(cr) 60.3

Market Cap (Rs cr) 216,739

Adj. Book Value (Rs) 523.4

Avg.52 Wk Volume 58,70,000

52 Week High 4923.4

52 Week Low 1783.0

Share holding Pattern % (Jun, 2020)

Promoters 56.20

Institutions 31.35

Non Institutions 12.22

Total 100.0

Fundamental Research Analyst Atul Karwa [email protected]

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Recent Triggers In Q1FY21, business momentum was weak as entire business operations were locked down till 10th May’20, after which operations gradually restarted. B2B, gold loans and LAS started May onwards. As on 20th July, operations began at 2,322 locations (representing 85% of total business) while 86 branches are still closed. The management clarified that although operations have begun it would take time to reach pre-Covid levels. The AUM declined by 6.2% sequentially to Rs 1.38 lakh crore at the end of Q1FY21. As per the management, top 10 cities which are impacted the most by the pandemic are likely to stabilise by March. However there can be ~75+ cities which should restore to pre-COVID volumes by October while 40-75 cities are expected to be back to normal by end November and 10-40 cities by January. All this recovery is subject to Government of India not enforcing a second national lockdown. Based on this assessment, BFL has guided an AUM growth of 10-12% in FY21. Overall bounce rates have been constantly coming down by 3-4% on monthly basis while collection efficiency have been showing signs of improvement by 8-10% per month, however the number is still a long way from pre Covid levels. BFL made additional provision of Rs 1450cr for COVID-19 in Q1FY21, taking overall Covid related provisioning to Rs2350cr (11% of moratorium book; including the ECL provisions at 14%). Moratorium book is 15.7% of the AUM (Rs.21705 cr). BFL has converted ~Rs.8,600cr of term loans into flexi loans. The extended lockdown followed by the caution by buyers/borrowers post lifting could impact its loan book growth. People might defer expenses to conserve cash in the current situation. Tightening of underwriting and LTV norms across all businesses till July 2020 could further dent growth in FY21 as the company focus has shifted to capital preservation, balance sheet protection and operating expenses management. Long term Triggers Strong traction in consumer lending business BFL is amongst the largest unsecured personal loan lenders in India and as per Crisil in FY19, it is regarded as a market leader in the consumer durable segment within the listed private sector NBFCs. BFL’s consumer lending business has been growing at a strong pace. It has registered a CAGR of 34% over FY15-FY20 and currently has an AUM of ~Rs 51,252cr at the end of Q1FY21. Consumer lending accounts for ~37% of the consolidated lending book.

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BFL was amongst the first companies to establish a large presence of its representatives at sales outlets targeting the mass affluent segment. The company defines mass affluent as customers with an average household income exceeding Rs 5 lakh per annum in the Urban areas and Rs 3.5 lakh per annum in the Rural areas. Post the global financial crisis banks were vacating the consumer lending space, which provided an opportunity to BFL to build its network. At the end of Q1FY21, the company had a presence in 2408 locations with 117,000+ active distribution points of sale. BFL caters to ~43mn customers through its loan products, which include vehicle (2W & 3W), consumer durable, digital/lifestyle product and salaried personal loans. In FY20 it was the largest financier of Bajaj Auto motorcycles and three-wheelers financing over ~54% of Bajaj 2W and ~51% of Bajaj 3W. Lifestyle and ecommerce transaction have shown a strong growth of 13% and 22% respectively in number of transactions in FY20. Going forward, BFL plans to open new branches primarily in rural areas, to deepen its geographic presence and increase points of sale by tying up with more distributors and stores, both in existing and in new geographies. BFL's unique Existing Member Identification (EMI) card, with ~22mn cards in operation, enables customers to avail instant finance after the first purchase. In FY20, EMI card enabled BFL to finance over 11.5mn purchases, a growth of 18% over FY19. With the competition- PSU Banks, NBFCs, mid-sized private banks - struggling, BFL can continue to gain market share gradually over time. Leverage customer base to cross-sell products to grow loan portfolio and fee income BFL has a large customer franchise of over 40mn, which it plans to leverage to cross-sell its new products to generate fee income. It has developed various data analytics models that analyses customer information and helps to generate new offers for credit worthy customers who have demonstrated decent track record of repayment. Since FY16 the company has introduced several new products like a co-branded credit card with RBL Bank and launched developer financing and IPO financing under its Mortgage Lending and Commercial Lending verticals. In addition, it distributes some of its products through its website which has a co-branded wallet One MobiKwik Systems Private Limited (“MobiKwik”) also known as Bajaj Finserv MobiKwik Wallet. Along with this it also has collaborations with major ecommerce players such as MakeMyTrip Limited. Overall fees and commission income has registered a growth of over 50% in FY20 to Rs 2,591cr.

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Investment in technology to control opex BFL has been at the forefront of technology adoption amongst NBFCs, and has been continuously leveraging its existing and emerging technologies to launch new products to enhance customer acquisition and service processes along with simplification of back-office. It has invested ~Rs 1,500cr in technology over FY15-FY20. It has consolidated its front office, mid office and back office processes on a single cloud Platform for its consumer and rural lending business. This has brought more efficiency in the processes resulting in an increased front-end productivity and digitally enabled the merchant eco-system with an integrated view of transactions aiming at faster time to cash. The Company is also actively investing and deploying capabilities in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine learning (ML) in the area of facial recognition, optical character recognition (OCR), natural language processing (NLP) and voice. These technologies will enable frictionless customer experience at various touch points SME, commercial loans to aid AUM growth SME financing (13% of consolidated AUM) and commercial lending (7%) offers high-volume, profitable and opportunistic credit growth though with lower spreads .Also, BFL’s wide footprint helps in mitigating the geographic concentration. Both the portfolios are fairly granular, giving the company the flexibility to go slow on one segment or region, depending on risk parameters. Under SME lending, BFL offers working capital loans to small and medium enterprises and self-employed individuals, loan to professionals, secured enterprise loans and used car financing. As with consumer lending, BFL focuses on affluent SME customers with an average turnover of Rs 15-17cr, established financials and a robust borrowing track record. Till Jan-18, secured lending like loan against property, home loans, lease rental discounting and developer financing was directly undertaken by the company. Thereafter, incremental loan sourcing in these three categories as well as developer financing was taken over by its mortgage arm Bajaj Housing Finance (BHFL). Unsecured lending is via two product offerings: (a) business loans to SMEs & self-employed, and (b) professional loans. The SME lending business has grown to Rs 18,277cr at the end of Q1FY21. Under commercial lending BFL provides short, medium and long term financing to mid-market corporates and loans against shares and other securities. The commercial loan book has grown to Rs 10,000cr at the end of Q1FY21. BFL also offers structured collateralised products against marketable securities or mortgages. The company ensures that commercial lending is an opportunistic, profitable business (average ~11% IRR) that avoids concentration risks. BFL also exited its warehouse receipt financing business wef Apr 2019, this was mainly on account of stress witnessed in the agrarian sector and the lack of a sustainable profit model.

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Rural lending growth to aid yield expansion BFL launched its rural lending business in FY14 and since then it has grown at a rapid pace. Outstanding loans stood at Rs 12,370cr at the end of Q1FY21 and its share in AUM has grown from 1% in FY15 to ~9% in FY20. Geographic presence across 1,359 towns and villages with retail presence across 19,600+ points of sale has aided strong growth in rural lending. BFL operates with a unique hub and spoke business model offering loans across consumer, SME & mortgages business categories. Although consumer durable ticket sizes are 10% lower than urban branches, the yields are 100-150bps higher. This offsets the impact of high customer acquisition cost and credit losses. Housing Finance to gain scale in medium term Post hive-off into a separate entity in FY18, Bajaj Housing Finance (BHFL) will have (a) access to a lower cost of funds, (b) a dedicated team to focus on the large Rs 20tn market (which is likely to expand at 15% p.a.), and (c) the opportunity to lever the business 9-10x. BHFL has the potential to achieve a book size in excess of Rs 1 lakh crore and market share of 3-4% by FY24. As of FY20, the housing loan book stood at Rs 46,166cr. Robust asset quality parameters Barring the recent jump due to Covid-19 related provisions, BFL’s credit costs have been range-bound at 130-160bps over the past seven years, thus driving healthy ROE of over 22%. Net slippages ratio (with a four-quarter lag) has averaged at ~200bps over the last 10 quarters, reflecting the efficacy of collections. Strict monitoring of asset quality metrics, diversified product suite (allows for flexibility in loan exposure)along with use of technology & data analytics (for prudent product positioning) lowers credit loss probability. The management has been prudent and has taken additional provision of Rs 2350cr for Covid-19 in Q4FY20 and Q1FY21. We expect FY21 to witness elevated credit costs but this could return to the range in FY22. Diversified borrowing sources BFL is amongst the highest rated NBFCs in the country and can borrow at very competitive rates. The company took advantage of the capital market route to fund its growth. Recently, in order to benefit from the falling interest rates, the company has reduced its dependence on bank borrowings and NCDs and thereby increased its reliance on fixed deposits. It set up 7 fixed deposit branches in Mar-19 in Pune and also started offering fixed deposits under its rural lending vertical. It is also working with distributors to source deposits from NRIs. Cost of borrowings has declined over 100bps over FY16-FY20. With an incremental focus on financing high-yield, high-churn digital and lifestyle

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products, the back-book repricing has been faster than liability repricing – this has manifested in stable-to-improving spreads over FY16-FY20, ranging from 8.5-9.0%. In January 2019, the RBI permitted NBFCs to borrow up to $750mn per financial year pursuant to the ECB Framework under the “Automatic” route. In June 2019, BFL established a $1.5bn Secured Euro Medium Term Note Programme to be utilised over a period of time. What could go wrong

The extension of lockdown could result in higher NPAs in the coming quarters requiring increased provisioning which might hit its profitability.

Expanding into smaller geographic locations could expose BFL to a high proportion of new-to-credit customers, who may not have disciplined banking behavior.

The slowdown due to Covid-19 pandemic could result in OEMs renegotiating the terms of finance which could hamper subvention income and thereby affect the high IRRs enjoyed in consumer financing.

Banks and other financial technology players are focusing on retail lending space which might increase competition for the company.

Bajaj’s AUM could remain almost flat in FY2021 led by lower business volumes in H1FY21 due to Covid-related disruptions; the company has reported 6% qoq decline in loan book in Q1FY21, weak retail sentiment and stringent credit underwriting (including increase in LTV).

Overall growth in customer base moderated to 24% yoy in FY20 compared to 30-32% yoy over the past two years. BFL’s penetration into overall population of India is <5% and hence penetration into new geographies is important to fuel growth in customer additions. Till then BFL’s ability to mine its existing customer base and increase cross-sell ratio will remain important.

The company has traded at high valuations in the past on optimism of continued high growth rate which might not be the case now – one due to Covid related uncertainties and two due to the large base.

About the company Bajaj Finance Ltd. (BFL), the lending arm of the Bajaj Finserv group is a deposit taking NBFC-D with a diversified loan portfolio and a pan-India presence. Established originally to provide finance for the purchase of two-wheelers and three-wheelers manufactured by Bajaj Auto, it diversified into other segments over the years like consumer finance (47% of portfolio), SME finance (31%), commercial finance (15%) and

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rural finance (7%). It is a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv which holds ~55% stake in the company. As of Jun-2020 BFL had an outstanding AUM of 1.38 lakh crore. Headquartered in Pune, it serves ~43mn customers across the country through its 2408 branches and an active distribution network of over 114000 points. Bajaj has ~50% market share in consumer durables and digital finance business in India, it is the second largest captive NBFC 2W financier in India with 14% market share, the company has about 10% market share in personal loans, ~3% in LAP and ~2% in home loans. BFL has two 100% subsidiaries Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd. (BHFL): BHFL mainly offers the following products to its customers: (i) home loans, (ii) loan against property, (iii) lease rental discounting, and (iv)developer financing. It also has a dedicated vertical offering home loans and loan against property to rural individuals and MSME customers. In FY20 BHFL reported net interest income of Rs 1,030cr (Rs 471cr in FY19) and PAT of Rs 421cr (Rs 110cr) and its AUM stood at Rs 46,166cr. Bajaj Financial Securities Ltd. (BFSL): BFL acquired 100% stake in BFSL in FY19 from BHFL for an aggregate consideration of Rs 20.4cr. BFSL has received approval from SEBI to carry on the business as a stock broker and trading membership of BSE Ltd. It is in the nascent stage of stock broking and DP business. Peer comparision

(FY20) CMP (Rs)

Mcap (Rs cr)

EPS (Rs)

RoAA (%)

RoAE (%)

P/E (x)

P/ABV (x)

Shriram Trans. 687 17397 99.2 2.3 14.7 6.9 1.4

Cholaman.Inv.&Fn 234 19183 12.9 1.7 14.6 18.2 2.9

Bajaj Finance 3597 216739 87.7 3.6 20.2 41.0 6.9

M & M Fin. Serv. 137 16951 8.7 1.4 9.2 15.8 2.1

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Financials PROFIT & LOSS RATIO ANALYSIS

Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Interest Income 11586 16349 22970 24199 27766 Return Ratios (%)

Interest Expenses 4614 6624 9473 10315 11444 Yield on adv 16.2 16.5 17.5 16.6 17.2

Net Interest Income 6972 9725 13497 13883 16322 Cost of funds 7.9 7.7 8.1 7.8 7.8

Non interest income 1171 2153 3415 3481 3986 NIM 9.8 9.8 10.3 9.5 10.1

Operating Income 8143 11878 16912 17365 20308 RoAA 3.4 3.8 3.6 2.6 3.7

Operating Expenses 3269 4198 5661 5853 6921 RoAE 19.5 22.5 20.2 12.5 17.4

PPP 4874 7681 11252 11511 13387 Asset Quality Ratios (%)

Prov & Cont 1031 1501 3930 5764 4100 GNPA 1.4 1.6 1.6 3.9 2.3

Profit Before Tax 3843 6179 7322 5747 9288 NNPA 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.8

Tax 1347 2184 2058 1448 2340 Valuation Ratios

PAT 2496 3995 5264 4299 6947 EPS (Rs) 43.1 69.3 87.7 71.7 115.8

P/E (x) 83.5 51.9 41.0 50.2 31.1

BALANCE SHEET Adj. BVPS (Rs) 269.5 328.9 523.4 570.9 698.1

Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E P/ABV (x) 13.3 10.9 6.9 6.3 5.2

Share Capital 115 115 120 120 120 Dividend per share (Rs) 4.0 6.0 10.0 0.0 8.0

Reserves & Surplus 15733 19582 32208 36507 43106 Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2

Shareholder funds 15848 19697 32328 36627 43226 Operating Efficiency (%)

Borrowings 67980 103260 129806 134686 158757 Cost/avg. asset ratio 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.7

Other Liab & Prov. 970 1276 2257 1847 2044 Cost-Income 40.1 35.3 33.5 34.3 35.1

SOURCES OF FUNDS 84798 124233 164391 173159 204027 RoAE Tree

Fixed Assets 467 692 1318 1450 1594 Net interest income 9.4% 9.3% 9.4% 8.2% 8.7%

Investment 3139 8599 17544 17509 15876 Non-interest income 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1%

Cash & Bank Balance 340 349 1383 12116 11537 Operating cost 4.4% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.7%

Advances 79103 112513 141376 138727 171457 Provisions 1.4% 1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.2%

Other Assets 1750 2080 2771 3359 3563 Tax expense 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.2%

TOTAL ASSETS 84798 124233 164391 173159 204027 ROAA 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% 2.6% 3.7%

Leverage (x) 5.8 5.9 5.5 4.9 4.7

ROAE 19.5% 22.5% 20.2% 12.5% 17.4% (Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)

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Price Chart

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Disclosure:

I, Atul Karwa, MMS, author and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also

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preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

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