Regional Seminar on Nuclear Fuel Supply, Reprocessing, and Disposal in Asia

17-18 October 2011, Beijing, China

"A Sustainability Framework for Assessing Investments in Nuclear

Infrastructure”

A presentation by Gordon Thompson, Institute for Resource & Security Studies

and Clark University (USA), <gthompson@irss-usa.org>

Overview

•  Imperatives of sustainability •  The concept of sustainability •  Potential role of nuclear power •  Outline of an operational framework

for sustainability assessment •  Recommended actions

A Stressed Biosphere  •  International Geosphere-Biosphere Program and

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) have measured threats to the biosphere

•  Half of Earth’s land surface is domesticated for direct human use

•  75% of world fisheries are fully- or over-exploited •  Earth is in the midst of its 6th great extinction

event – the Anthropocene era •  15 out of 24 ecosystem services examined by the

MEA are being degraded or used unsustainably

IEA Reference Scenario for World Oil Production

Source: Intl. Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008  

Deepwater Horizon, 2010

Worldwide CO2 Emissions Source: Michael Raupach et al, PNAS, 12 June 2007  

Committed Global Warming from GHG Emissions 1750-2005

Source: Ramanathan & Feng, PNAS, 23 September 2008  

Potential GHG Emission Pathways for “North” & “South”

Source: Paul Baer et al, Greenhouse Development Rights Framework, Nov. 2008  

WCED (Brundtland) Report, 1987

WCED Definition of Sustainability  

” Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs"

Sustainability as Common Ground (Isfahan, Iran, April 2008)  

Nuclear Electricity Worldwide  

Plutonium Inventories Chicago, 1943: 30 microgram (oxide)

One nuclear warhead: 3 to 4 kg (average)

Produced by commercial reactors worldwide, 1961 through 2010: 2.1 million kg

Nuclear Power in the USA: Expectations and Outcomes  

•  US Atomic Energy Commission expectation, 1972: 1,200 GWe of US nuclear capacity in 2000, with a closed fuel cycle

•  Outcome: US nuclear capacity in 2011 is 98 GWe (104 reactors); reprocessing stopped in 1972; 97 reactors were cancelled (mostly in 1970s and 1980s)

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•  Congress’ expectation (NWPA), 1982: First US radioactive waste repository by 1998

•  Outcome: The Yucca Mountain repository project was delayed, then terminated in 2011

Fukushima Daiichi Units 3 & 4

U Enrichment: A Proliferation Issue

Visions of Nuclear Power Worldwide  •  Generation IV vision: New reactor designs; closed

fuel cycle; cassette refueling; production of electricity, hydrogen, process heat, & potable water (Sustainability claims of Generation IV: Extended U reserves and use of Th; reduced thermal load & radio-toxicity of waste; passively safe reactors)

•  MIT vision: Generation III reactors; open fuel cycle; centralized multi-decade storage of spent fuel

•  Skeptics’ vision: Expansion of nuclear power is unlikely and/or inappropriate; industry should/will fade away

“Supply Curve” for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions

Source: McKinsey Global Institute  

Performance of a Passivehaus Source: Passivehaus Institut

Options to Reduce Environmental Impact: Lighting & Hg

Source: NRDC

The Desertec Concept

Operationalizing the Sustainability Concept – Principles  

•  Preserve and enhance capital assets: –  Human capital (knowledge, culture, health,

institutions, social networks, etc.) –  Natural capital (cycles and stocks of biospheric and

mineable assets – renewable & non-renewable) –  Engineered capital (cities, factories, nuclear facilities

& materials, etc.) •  Preserve and enhance choices available to future

generations (lifestyle, technology options, land use, etc.)

• Construct economic policies and rules to serve these goals

Operationalizing the Sustainability Concept – Indicators  

• Indicators are needed to assess the sustainability of proposed investments in infrastructure

• Relevant indicators would account for factors including: –  Anticipated impacts (positive or negative) on human

capital, natural capital, and engineered capital (Examples would include human health, GHG emissions, biodiversity, liveable cities, arable land)

–  The potential for unplanned or unwelcome outcomes (i.e., risks)

–  Reversibility (the ability to return to prior conditions) –  Flexibility, adaptability, and resilience (responding to

changed conditions or goals)

Operationalizing the Sustainability Concept – Process  

•  Indicators would be weighted and combined within an evaluative framework that would be used to assess the sustainability of proposed investments in infrastructure

•  Weighting of indicators would reflect broad engagement of stakeholders

•  The framework would consider alternative options, and would expand upon EIS practice

•  A consensus-based framework could emerge from testing in a variety of practical contexts

Recommended Actions

• Any proposed investment in nuclear infrastructure should be assessed using a sustainability framework

•  The same framework should be used to assess any large investment in infrastructure (e.g., transport, water, energy, chemicals)

•  Scholars in China, USA, and elsewhere could cooperate to develop a framework for sustainability assessment