T r a v e l o gthe analyst’s diary

REAL ESTATE 2016

Aashumi Mehta (Aashumi.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com; +91 22 3010 2397)

Sandipan Pal (Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com; +91 22 3982 5436)

Bhiwadi: Could be next real estate destination

in NCR

Neemrana: A bit more futuristic; policy

dependent

Jaipur: Industrialization key trigger

Bhiwadi | Neemrana| Jaipur

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RajasthanHaryana

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

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We travelled almost 300km by road from Delhi toJaipur, stopping at three key emerging real estatedestinations in North India: (1) Bhiwadi, (2)

Neemrana, and (3) Jaipur. On the way, we interactedwith multiple real estate companies (promoters, regionheads, project managers, and sales & marketing teams),large and medium size brokers, and government officials.We also stopped at various ongoing sites and the largestintegrated township & SEZ project in the region. Wepresent our key takeaways.

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Exhibit 1: From Delhi to Jaipur, stopping at Bhiwadi, Neemrana

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Day 1: Bhiwadi: Could be next real estate destinationin NCR

Day 1: Neemrana: A bit more futuristic; policydependent

Day 2: Jaipur: Industrialization key trigger

Day 1| Bhiwadi: could be next real estate destinationin NCR (View: Positive)Advantageous location: Bhiwadi is located in the Alwardistrict of Rajasthan at the border of Rajasthan andHaryana. It is an emerging industrial destination inthe NCR, 53km from Delhi Airport, 35km from Gurgaon,and 25km from Manesar. It enjoys straight Delhi-JaipurNH8 connectivity (took us 40 minutes from Gurgaon bycar). The nearest railway station is Rewari (25km),which would be a nodal point for the Western DedicatedFreight Corridor (DFC).

Rapid industrialization: This is the largest industrialhub of North India with ~3,000 large, medium and small-scale industries (Honda, Lafarge, Shree Cement, Pepsi,Gillette, Relaxo, Micromax). Industries include steel,furnace, electronics, engineering, textiles,pharmaceuticals, printing, cables, rolling mills, foodprocessing, herbal care units, etc. Key favorableattributes for industrialization are better law andorder, labor availability, and rates compared to Haryana.

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Rising infrastructure boost: (a) Part of Phase-I ofDelhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC; hence part ofnational level planning), (b) Cargo airport shortly(land acquisition done), (c) Passenger airport to comenear Tejara tehsil (land and execution partner underdecision stage), (d) Khuskhera zone (strong plan fromRIICO for next phase of industrialization), and (e)metro connectivity (land acquisition underway) in 4-5years.

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Exhibit 2: Bhiwadi master plan and emerging corridors

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Good residential support system: Due to (1) Proximityto industrial and commercial hub (Gurgaon and Manesaron one side; at the center of the triangular industrialhub of Bawal, Rewari and Neemrana), and (2) Rapidimprovement in social life - malls (V Square, Genesis),schools, few power cuts (unlike Haryana), and betterlaw and order.

Attractive price arbitrage: (a) Just 25-30km away fromSector 81-82 of Gurgaon, where prices are INR7,500-9,000/sf (at Bhiwadi, prices are INR2,500-3,000/sf),(b) Huge number of people who migrate to Gurgaon (believedto be 100k/month) for jobs in IT, BPO and other fields,with salaries of INR25k-100k/month aspire to own homesin 2-4 years. Given the minimum ticket size in Gurgaonat ~INR10m, Bhiwadi is a practical option. Land betweenManesar and Bhiwadi is agricultural/industrial; sinceno residential project is likely in between, Bhiwadiwould remain the best option.

Still in nascent stage of organized real estate:Organized real estate came to Bhiwadi 10 years ago in2006, with 6-7 prominent builders including Ashiana,Avalon, Krish, Nemai, Terra City, M2K, Cosmos, andOmaxe. 8-10 projects have been delivered, with 10-15kunits (mostly sold). Pricing has gone up 30-35% overthe last five years and is currently at INR2,500-3,000/

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sf. Land prices are up from INR2-2.5m/acre to INR15m-20m/acre in 7-8 years.

Prevailing weakness: No major launches have happenedin the last 12-15 months due to slowdown. At the peak,3k-3.5k units were sold annually. The run-rate is down70% from the peak now. However, unsold inventory incompleted assets is not high (8-10%). Channel partnersfeel that both new launches and sales should revivearound 2QFY17, as fundamentals are strong and investorscannot wait long - already waited at 2-3 years andprices have also stagnated. Black money curb and generalweakness in sentiment were cited as key reasons for theslowdown. However, fundamental driving forces are strong.Market participants hope for doubling of market volumesin 5-6 years.

Customer segment: Currently, contribution is largelyfrom Gurgaon's working population. Ashiana's projectsattract senior officials from HCL Tech, Honda, andShree Cement, who operate in Gurgaon or local markets.Ticket size is INR2m-6m. Industrialization would be agame changer for the market. However, even ifindustrialization is delayed, percolation of Gurgaonbuyers would be a strong support factor. Several peoplewe met opined that Bhiwadi is where Gurgaon was 10years ago.

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Operating dynamics: Ashiana is the best brand in theregion, with quality products (25% market share broadly).Avalon is a large player, but many of its projects arestanding half down. By and large, it is a broker-driven market, though Ashiana is yet to go through thebroker community - seems to be a reason for irritationamong brokers. Ashiana does its own resale (charges2%+2% brokerage). Channel partners expect 100k housingdemand in Bhiwadi against potential supply of 60kunits over 2020, creating a favorable demand-supplyequation for price appreciation.

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Exhibit 3: Ashiana Aangan - Completed project at Bhiwadi

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Exhibit 4: Ashiana Town Beta (1.5msf+) comfort living: Phase 1 & 2 delivery in FY16

Exhibit 5: V Square Mall at Bhiwadi: Started, however, higher floors are vacant

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Day 1 | Neemrana: a bit more futuristic; policydependent (View: Neutral| Near-term uncertain)Locational advantage: Neemrana is situated in the Alwardistrict of Rajasthan at a distance of 122km from Delhion NH8 (Delhi-Jaipur highway). It is close to theWestern Dedicated Freight Corridor's nodal station ofRewari. Neemrana lies along Phase-I of the DMIC. Proximityto the other industrial belts of Bawal, Rewari, Daruhera,Manesar and Gurgaon should propel growth.

Industrial developments: Japanese zone (1,200 acres,70% operational) is already present in Neemrana (Nippon,Daikin, Nissan, NYK Logistics, and Mitsui Chemicals).Zone dedicated for the Koreans is coming up in Ghilot.New Multimodal Logistic Park near Kathuwas RailwayStation has been sanctioned by the Container Corporationof India (CONCOR). The Export Promotion Industrial Park(EPIP) is also being developed by RIICO.

Dynamics drivers and overhangs: Demand is generatedfrom internal employment only. Gurgaon is too far (90km)to generate cascading demand from migrants. Industryaddition is a key pull factor; market absorption washurt in the last two years due to no new industryaddition since 2014 due to lack of clarity on GST,other policies, and a few proposals demanded by foreigninvestors (like separate "district status" for Neemranafor ease of doing business, etc). Housing demand is

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likely to rise as more industries flock towards thisindustrial hub.

Weaker social life: Social life is weaker compared toBhiwadi - no malls, multiplexes, good quality schoolsand hospitals.

Customer profile: Almost 70% investors, with 30% ofthe investor base looking for resale. Residential pricesin this market range are INR2,800-3,200/sf, and havebeen stagnating for two years. Overall, 4,000 unitsare delivered (largely sold) and 3,000-4,000 units areunder construction (40-50% unsold). Launches and demandare currently slow.

Developers: Ashiana is among the best brands, followedby larger players like Ashadeep, Eldeco, and Anantraj(have entered into multiple MoUs with RajasthanGovernment for low cost housing). Ashiana's quality ofconstruction is perceived as the best. Ashiana Angan(0.4msf+) was delivered in three years, with ratesrising from INR2,600/sf to INR3,200/sf in resale.

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Exhibit 6: Ashiana Aangan at Neemrana: Delivery in progress

Exhibit 7: Anantraj Ashray: Low cost housing project at Neemrana (INR0.9-1m ticket size)

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Day 2 | Jaipur: industrialization key trigger (View:Neutral to Postive)Locational importance: The city is strategically locatedat the confluence of three national highways - NH-8,which connects Delhi to Mumbai, NH-12, which linksJaipur to Madhya Pradesh, and NH-11, which links Bikanerto Agra. The nearby markets of Delhi and Gujarat havebeen both complementing and competing forces. DMIC islikely to further strengthen Jaipur's development as animportant economic hub.

Demand mainly by locals: Lesser demand from floatingpopulation. People in Rajasthan aspire for homes inJaipur due to better employment prospects, and superiormedical and education facilities. Among the other cities,Jodhpur is dominated by handicraft, Kota is largelyeducation. Jaipur has mix of all, with risingindustrialization. People prefer bigger houses, with3BHK the most popular product type.

Resilient despite high investor base: High investorbase - mostly local Marwaris. Yet, the market isrelatively resilient largely due to better holdingpower of investors. Local investors are less exposed tostock markets. Real estate and gold remain the majorinvestment avenues.

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Exhibit 8: Jaipur master plan

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Attraction for industry investment: (a) Goodinfrastructure, (b) Large talent pool due to presenceof several reputed educational institutions, (c) Goodsocioeconomic environment, and (d) Favorable government.Infrastructure is well in advance, with low congestionand travel time within city. Operating metro and proposedring road (phase-1 of 47km from Ajmer Road to AgraRoad) would enhance infrastructure further. City offersmany finance-based talents.

Affordability is hurt: There is slowdown in absorption,which is down 25-30% from the recent peak of 6-7k unitsper year. Prices are now stagnating as well, with rateshaving risen from INR2,500-3,000/sf to INR4,000-5,000/sf over 2009-2014. Affordability is hurt. New investors'participation is low, given no appreciation in the last1.5-2 years. There have not been many launches in FY15-16 and housing finance companies have reduced theirtargets as well.

Industrialization momentum decelerated: Post 2012,momentum of industry addition halted in Mahindra WorldCity, which is perceived as one of the best hopes forJaipur real estate (South West Jaipur - Ajmer Road).Though many companies have added facilities in thedomestic tariff area, the overall pace ofindustrialization was subnormal in 2012-16 after a

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strong previous 4-5 years. Based on our interactions,green shoots are visible on the policy and demandfronts, which would enhance the pace of addition FY17onwards (Mahindra is launching phase 2 of DTA shortly).Mahindra SEZ has 31 companies operational (11,000employees) and 13-14 under construction.

Normalized growth expected: Industry participants believethat the phase of supernormal growth is behind inJaipur. Recovery in industrialization will be the keytrigger ahead for normalized growth and priceappreciation. A lot will depend on RIICO policy. Newgovernment has been proactive so far.

Key developers: Mangalam, Mahindra, ARG, Omaxe, Coraland Ashiana are the key developers. Topography does notallow the city to grow in the North and North Eastdirections (hill area). South, South East and SouthWest are the expanding regions. The South West (AjmerRoad) offers strong potential, with industrializationat Mahindra World City, improving connectivity, andgood schools (DPS, St Xavier's, etc, in vicinity).Ashiana Umang has been a successful project in thisarea.

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Exhibit 9: Ashiana Umang near Mahindra World City

Exhibit 10: Companies at Mahindra World City

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Exhibit 11: JCB at Mahindra World City Jaipur's domestic tariff area

Exhibit 12: Facilities at DTA

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Exhibit 13: Road infrastructure at Mahindra World City Jaipur

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Exhibit 14: Infosys: One of the oldest tenants of Mahindra World City's IT SEZ area

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Day 2 | Ashiana Housing: A quality play in theregionAshiana Housing (USD0.25b, not covered) offers a qualityplay in these markets, with ~80% of its ongoing projectsexposure (Bhiwadi 34% and Jaipur 37%) and ~70% of futureland bank (Bhiwadi 47% and Jaipur 23%). We noted thefollowing qualitative positives about the company:

Strong brand recall: Best recall among customers. Wefound active onsite execution, with projects on track.Peers have stopped/slowed down execution, as visible intheir under-construction sites.

Products are superior in quality and unique; hencebetter marketability: Both its comfort living and seniorliving projects have good quality construction, goodvalue proposition, and better looking finished products,while prices are competitive. Construction cost iscompetitive too at INR1,600/sf.

In-house execution and marketing: No constructionoutsourcing has resulted in better quality control andlower cost, though at the cost of management bandwidth.Similarly, sales are direct and no brokers areentertained - whether this can sustain a market likeNCR, given the current slowdown, is a question.

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Better cash quality: Cash collection is entirelyconstruction-linked - no subvention schemes underway.All collections are in cheque, which has been a recentfocus area for other developers too.

Good strategy adopted: Ashiana targets the middle ofthe middle-income group. Its market entry strategy isgood - it entered a nascent market like Bhiwadi on itsown but used one of the largest and oldest groups,Mangalam as a JV partner in Jaipur.

Motivated employees: In our interactions, we felt thatmost employees are excited about their roles andcommitted to their jobs.

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