S HO R T CO MM UN IC AT IO N

Satellite detection of thermal precursors of Yamnotri,Ravar and Dalbandin earthquakes

Arun K. Saraf • Vineeta Rawat • Josodhir Das •

Mohammed Zia • Kanika Sharma

Received: 8 June 2011 / Accepted: 29 July 2011 / Published online: 24 August 2011� Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Abstract Prior to the occurrence of an earthquake, the region undergoes intensive

physiochemical changes. Such changes trigger degassing charge generation leading to

positive change in the thermal regime and consequently creation of an earthquake prep-

aration zone. These changes in thermal regime can be detected by the thermal sensors

onboard various polar orbiting satellites. Recent researches have demonstrated that thermal

infrared sensors onboard satellites (e.g., NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS) can

detect temporal transient thermal infrared anomalies prior to an earthquake. The paper

presents satellite-based thermal observations associated with Yamnotri (July 22, 2007,

India), Ravar (October 14, 2004, Iran) and Dalbandin (January 19, 2011, Pakistan)

earthquakes. In the case of Yamnotri earthquake, the region attained around 5–8�C higher

than the normal temperature on July 21, 2007 in the area, just 1 day before the earthquake.

Whereas, in the case of Ravar earthquake, the region has shown 5–7�C higher temperature

on October 06, 2004 about 6 days before the occurrence of the main earthquake event.

Dalbandin earthquake showed a maxima on January 17, 2011, just 2 days before the main

shock with the raised temperature of around 8–10�C. Another common observation in all

these earthquakes is the disappearance of short-term transient thermal anomaly just before

the main shock.

Keywords Earthquake � Thermal infrared anomalies � Land surface temperature

1 Introduction

Enhanced thermal infrared (TIR) emission from the earth’s surface retrieved by satellites

prior to earthquakes is known as ‘‘thermal infrared anomaly’’ (Freund et al. 2005; Freund

A. K. Saraf (&) � V. Rawat � J. Das � M. Zia � K. SharmaDepartment of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, Indiae-mail: arun.k.saraf@gmail.com

A. K. Saraf � V. Rawat � J. Das � M. Zia � K. SharmaDepartment of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee,Roorkee 247667, India

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Nat Hazards (2012) 61:861–872DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9922-5

2011). Stresses building up in an earthquake preparation zone may be released in sporadic

events of energy transformations like low-frequency EM emission, earthquake lights,

magnetic lights, magnetic field anomalies and land surface anomalies. Anomalous rise in

land surface temperature (LST) due to enhanced thermal infrared emission before an

impending earthquake can be detected through the satellites equipped with thermal sensors

like NOAA-AVHRR and TERRA/AQUA-MODIS. Such data sets have been successfully

used in recent past toward the detection of TIR anomaly especially in Russia, China, India,

Iran, Italy, United States, Turkey, Algeria, etc. (Gorny et al. 1988; Gorny and Shilin 1992;

Qiang et al. 1991, 1999; Tronin 1996, 2000; Tronin et al. 2002; Tramutoli et al. 2001; Saraf

and Choudhury 2003, 2005a, b, c; Choudhury et al. 2006; Saraf et al. 2008, 2009; Panda

et al. 2007; Ouzounov and Freund 2004). A robust satellite data analysis technique has also

been used by Tramutoli et al. (2001, 2005), Filizzola et al. (2004) and Genzano et al.

(2007) for the detection of earthquake precursor thermal anomalies due to its capability to

identify anomalous space–time TIR signal even in very variable observational (e.g.,

satellite view angle coverage) and natural (e.g., land topography meteorological ) condi-

tions. Two leading theories support TIR anomaly pattern that match the observed pattern of

studied earthquakes: (a) Earth degassing theory (ZiQi et al. 2004) and (b) p-hole activation

theory (Freund 2000, 2002, 2003; Freund et al. 2007). During an earthquake preparatory

phase, pore spaces in the rocks are reduced due to increasing tectonic stresses, resulting in

release of gases. These relatively hot gases on reaching earth’s surface increases the air

temperature and creates a local greenhouse effect on the land surface, thus serving as the

source of outgoing anomalous thermal radiation. Positive thermal anomalies at a regional

scale were observed by Tronin (1996) with the examination of around 9,000 thermal

images for the Middle Asian earthquake. These anomalies were attributed to the green-

house effect that was caused before the earthquake by an increase in gases such as CO2 and

CH4 (Tronin 1996). A new theory of charge generation in rocks prior to earthquakes is

given by Freund (2000, 2002, 2003). This theory keeps parity with laboratory experiments

(Qiang et al. 1997; Ouzounov and Freund 2004) and also provides an explanation for other

observed geophysical precursors. Electronic charge carriers can be free electrons or sites of

electron deficiency in the crystal structure, the latter known as p-holes (Freund 2000).

P-holes remain in form of positive hole pairs (PHPs) that get dissociated under high-

pressure conditions and hop from one site to other carrying charges. Charges carrying

p-holes recombine at rock surface and are de-excited by the emitting IR photons in

8–12-lm range (Freund 2002).

In this paper, we present observations on TIR anomaly made in the case of the Yamnotri

(Uttarakhand, India), Ravar (Kerman, Iran) and Dalbandin (Balochistan, Pakistan) earth-

quakes. A moderate earthquake strucks the Yamnotri region and Uttarakhand, India, on

July 22, 2007 (Table 1; Fig. 1) at 23:02 UTC causing injuries to human and minor damage

to property. It had a magnitude of Mb = 5.0 (India Meteorological Department, IMD) and

a focal depth of 35 km. The epicenter of the earthquake was located at 30.93�N and

78.27�E (National Earthquake Information Center, NEIC) in the vicinity of the Surka

Ridge (23.5 km west of Yamnotri), in the Upper Yamuna Valley. The epicentral region lies

north of Main Central Thrust (MCT) comprising crystalline rocks of higher Himalayan

region. Attempt on TIR anomaly detection in the case of Yamnotri earthquake is partic-

ularly important because Himalayan terrain poses problems due to its rugged topography,

unsteady weather conditions and thick vegetation cover. Iran is relatively less densely

vegetated, cloud free for most part of the year and has stable weather conditions, and thus,

many earthquakes with positive TIR anomaly have been observed in this region. A

magnitude 5.1 (International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, IIEES)

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moderate earthquake shook parts of Iran on October 14, 2004 at 2:28 UTC. The epicenter

of the earthquake was at 31.73�N and 57.11�E near Ravar in the Loot and Tabas deserts,

southeast Central Iran falling in the Golbaf-Sirj seismogenic zone (Table 1; Fig. 2). It

includes major faults comprising regional geology of Cenozoic granitic to intermediate

igneous rocks in the north and east, but Cretaceous shales, sandstone and limestone in the

center and west. The epicentral region is surrounded by the Nayband fault to the east, the

Lakarkuh fault in the center, and the Kuhbanan fault to the west Askari et al. (2010),

(Fig. 2).

Table 1 Details of studied earthquakes

S.no.

Earthquake Origin Location Mag.(Mb)

Focaldepth(km)Date Time

(UTC)Lat.(�N)

Long.(�E)

1 Yamnotri earthquake, India July 22,2007

23:02 30.93 78.27 5.0 35

2 Ravar earthquake, Iran October 14,2004

02:28 31.73 57.11 5.1 18

3 Dalbandin earthquake,Balochistan, Pakistan

January 19,2011

20:23 28.84 63.97 7.2 68

Fig. 1 Locations of epicenter of main event of Yamnotri earthquake (India) and historical seismicity of theregion. Epicenter and other information are shown over GTOPO30 (global digital elevation model)

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Balochistan region of Pakistan is sparsely vegetated mainly a desert land, and because

of this, enhanced TIR can be easily observed here. An earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.2

(United States Geological Survey, USGS) shook a sparsely populated area in the west of

Dalbandin in Balochistan. The earthquake took place on January 18, 2011 at 20:23 UTC at

28.84�N, 63.97�E. The depth of the earthquake was believed to be 68 km. This earthquake

occurred as a result of normal faulting within the lithosphere of the subducted Arabian

plate (Table 1; Fig. 3). The epicentral region is represented by sedimentary rocks of

Miocenre-Pliocene bounded by the Chagai Arc in the north and Raskoh Range in the south.

2 Data and methodology

The NOAA-AVHRR data set used in present work has been obtained from Indian Institute

of Technology-Satellite Earth Station (IITR-SES), which covers entire India, parts of Iran

and several neighboring countries (Saraf 2010). The NOAA series of satellites having

onboard AVHRR sensor allow effective monitoring of the earth’s thermal field due to its

spatial (1.1 km), temporal (daily four scenes per satellite) and temperature (0.5�C) reso-

lutions. Passively measured TIR spectral radiations through AVHRR sensor (channels 4

and 5) of NOAA provide temperature of radiating surfaces. In the present study, day and

nighttime NOAA-AVHRR high-resolution picture transmission (HRPT) and local area

coverage (LAC) data were used. The generation of all the LST maps is based on the Becker

and Li (1990) split window algorithm, which uses the differential absorption effect in

channels 4 and 5 of NOAA-AVHRR for correcting the atmospheric attenuation mainly

caused by water vapor absorption (NOAA 2006). Data sets for around a fortnight prior and

after the earthquake (depending on the availability of the scenes with no or minimum cloud

Fig. 2 Locations of epicenter of main event of Ravar earthquake (Iran), historical seismicity and tectonics(faults) of the region. Epicenter and other information are shown over GTOPO30 (global digital elevationmodel)

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cover) were used to generate LST time series maps to study the thermal conditions around

the epicenter. The data sets used here represent almost same time of acquisition of different

dates (Tables 2, 3). An analysis of thermal images was performed to ascertain the

approximate time of appearance of a TIR anomaly (in terms of days), intensity of thermal

rise and its spatial extent. Since TIR cannot penetrate clouds, cloudy areas will give the

temperature of the cloud top and not the actual LST of the area. Therefore, images with

dense cloud cover were avoided in the time series layouts. Time series LST layouts of

Yamnotri and Ravar earthquakes illustrate gradual development of thermal anomalies,

thermal peak and return of thermal conditions of the affected region to normal (implies

background temperature before peak thermal anomaly observed in the beginning of tem-

perature rise) after the earthquake, unlike in Dalbandin earthquake where the change is

sudden. Due to the unavailability of mean LST image of previous years, a normal image

could not be generated. However, study of individual images of same time window of past

few years reveals that there were no TIR anomalies. For preparation of time series LST

maps, the data sets were treated identically and a user-specified temperature range (con-

sistent for all scenes of a particular earthquake) was employed to delineate the thermal

anomalous area. Temperatures outside this range were masked including cloud-covered

pixels. In the case of Dalbandin earthquake study, MODIS standard LST products

(available in public domain) of almost the same time of different dates acquired and used

to prepare a time series LST map. No further processing to remove cloud cover has been

applied.

Fig. 3 Locations of epicenter of main event of Dalbandin earthquake (Pakistan) (source: http://www.nrahmahanifa.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/intensity1.jpg?w=510&h=602) (accessed on May 24, 2011)

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3 Observations

Anomalous temperature could be observed from LST time series prepared in the case of

Yamnotri (India) and Ravar (Iran) earthquakes (Tables 2, 3), using NOAA-AVHRR

thermal data set and Dalbandin (Balochistan) earthquake using Terra/Aqua-MODIS ther-

mal data set (Table 4). For Yamnotri earthquake, NOAA-AVHRR scenes for about

1 month (a fortnight prior and after the earthquake) were processed and analyzed to

prepare LST (Table 2; Fig. 4). The early morning LST layout for the region during

earthquake period shows conspicuous rise in LST conditions. The TIR anomaly first

Table 2 Details of daytimeNOAA-AVHRR data used toprepare LST time series maps asshown in Fig. 4 to study pre-earthquake TIR anomaly of July22, 2007 Yamnotri (India)earthquake

S. no. Date Time of acquisition(UTC)

1 July 01, 2007 05:57

2 July 02, 2007 05:34

3 July 04, 2007 04:47

4 July 06, 2007 05:42

5 July 07, 2007 05:18

6 July 08, 2007 04:55

7 July 11, 2007 05:26

8 July 14, 2007 05:57

9 July 15, 2007 05:34

10 July 16, 2007 05:10

11 July 17, 2007 04:47

12 July 19, 2007 05:41

13 July 20, 2007 05:18

14 July 21, 2007 04:55

15 July 24, 2007 05:26

16 July 25, 2007 05:03

Table 3 Details of the nighttimeNOAA-AVHRR data used toprepare LST time series maps asshown in Fig. 5 to study pre-earthquake TIR anomaly ofOctober 14, 2004 Ravar (Iran)earthquake

S. no. Date Time of acquisition(UTC)

1 October 02, 2004 22:08

2 October 03, 2004 21:56

3 October 06, 2004 23:05

4 October 07, 2004 22:54

5 October 08, 2004 22:40

6 October 09, 2004 22:29

7 October 10, 2004 22:17

8 October 11, 2004 22:05

9 October 12, 2004 21:54

10 October 15, 2004 23:02

11 October 16, 2004 22:50

12 October 17, 2004 22:38

13 October 18, 2004 22:26

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appeared on July 15, 2007, i.e., 7 days prior to main shock. The temperature was around

2–4�C higher than the normal on this day. The anomalous area was NE of epicenter. The

region attained peak temperature on July 21, 2007, just 1 day before the earthquake. On an

average, temperature was around 5–8�C higher than the normal temperature of the area, but

at places, it was as high as 11�C (Table 4). The epicenter region was covered with clouds

for 2 days, including the day of main shock. On July 24, 2007, LST map of the area shows

lowered temperature conditions; however, it was still at elevated temperatures than the

normal. After, that area shows continuously decreasing temperature till normal temperature

condition is achieved. The maximum extent of anomaly was about 257,500 km2. The

thermal anomaly did not vanish immediately after the earthquake but took an extended

time owing to the aftershock activity.

The nighttime LST layout for the Ravar earthquake, Iran, shows the similar pattern

followed by TIR anomaly (Table 4; Fig. 5). The anomalous field appeared first on October

06, 2004 and reached to maximum on October 08, 2004 (about six nights before the day of

Ravar earthquake) to the SE of epicenter. The LST was about 5–7�C higher than the

normal (Table 4). The extent of TIR anomaly during peak temperature conditions was

about 53,000 km2. The earthquake occurred on October 14, 2004, but due to the

unavailability of scene, LST could not be prepared for the day. On October 15, 2004, again

high temperature can be noticed. Normal temperature conditions were attained on October

17, 2004. Similarly, using optimization techniques on the same NOAA-AVHRR nighttime

data sets, however, Askari et al. (2010) have demonstrated that TIR anomaly reached its

highest intensity six nights before the Ravar earthquake.

LST series prepared for Dalbandin (Pakistan) earthquake, also showing similar pattern

in thermal anomaly rise (Table 4; Fig. 6). Transient period for this earthquake was around

10 days with peak attainment occurred 2 days before. The thermal anomaly appeared

around the epicenter mainly in the southern region. The LST during the peak is around

8–10�C higher than the normal with the anomalous region of around 64,000 km2. Just

1 day before, the earthquake temperature dropped and the normal temperature was attained

after 5 days of earthquake, i.e., on January 3, 2011 (Table 5).

4 Discussions and conclusions

NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS thermal data sets have proven valuable in

successful detection of earthquake thermal precursors. Though this analysis pertains to

Table 4 Details of the NOAA-AVHRR data used to prepareLST time series maps as shownin Fig. 6 to study pre-earthquakeTIR anomaly of January 19 2011Dalbandin (Baluchistan)earthquake

S. no. Date Time of acquisition (UTC)

1 January 14, 2011 06:35

2 January 15, 2011 08:50

3 January 16, 2011 06:25

4 January 17, 2011 08:40

5 January 18, 2011 06:10

6 January 19, 2011 08:30

7 January 20, 2011 06:00

8 January 21, 2011 08:15

9 January 22, 2011 05:45

10 January 23, 2011 06:30

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hind-sight study for the detection of pre-earthquake anomaly, it provides an understanding

of the pattern of growth of TIR anomalies and may assist in development of a reliable,

potential earthquake thermal precursor. Cloud cover over the epicentral area has always

Fig. 4 Nighttime NOAA-AVHRR LST time series layout of Yamnotri Region before and after theearthquake in Yamnotri, India on July 22, 2007. Red star denotes epicenter of earthquake

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Fig. 5 Nighttime NOAA-AVHRR LST time series layout of Iran before and after the earthquake in Ravaron October 14, 2004. Red star denotes epicenter of earthquake

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posed problem in thermal precursor studies and creates discontinuities in time series data.

In studied cases of Yamnotri, Ravar and Dalbandin earthquakes, the cloud-free scenes for

the main event day were not available.

The rise in LST observed in the case of Yamnotri earthquake (July 22, 2007, India),

Ravar earthquake (October 14, 2004, Iran) and Dalbandin earthquake (January 19, 2011,

Pakistan) is in range of 5–13, 5–7 and 8–10�C, respectively. Further, the peak temperature

can be observed 1 day to 1 week before the main shock. After the peak temperature is

Fig. 6 Daytime Terra/Aqua-MODIS LST time series layout of Pakistan before and after the earthquake inDalbandin on January 19, 2011. Black star denotes epicenter of earthquake

Table 5 Characteristics of the short-term TIR anomaly associated with the Yamnotri (India), Ravar (Iran)and Dalbandin (Pakistan) earthquakes

S.no.

Earthquake Mag. Focaldepth(km)

Pre-earthquake TIRanomaly

Intensity ofthermal rise(�C)

Spatial extentof TIRanomaly (km2)

Risestarted(days)

Max. riseobserved(days)

1 Yamnotri earthquake,India (July 22, 2007)

5.0 35 7 1 5–13 257,500

2 Ravar earthquake, Iran(October 24, 2004)

5.1 18 9 6 5–7 53,000

3 Dalbandin earthquake,Balochistan, Pakistan(19 January 2011)

7.2 68 5 2 8–10 64,000

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attained, it has been noticed that temperature falls significantly only to rise again before the

main shock or on the day of main shock. It has also been observed through our previous

studies that on the day of main shock, the LST scenario may or may not become normal.

The affected region may take days to week in attaining normal temperature conditions after

the main event if the after shocks are still active. The appearance of anomalous TIR

anomaly over the land surface has been more sensitive in nighttime satellite thermal

images. The observations made in Yamnotri, Ravar and Dalbandin earthquakes signifi-

cantly augment existing knowledge of earthquake thermal precursors. It also ascertains the

utility of NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS data sets in such kind of satellite-based

post-earthquake detection of thermal precursors.

Acknowledgments We are greatly indebted to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (Seismology Division), NewDelhi, and Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee (Dean, Finance and Planning) for financial assistance.

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