THE MANUFACTURING STRUCTURE OF CANADIAN CITIES by ...

THE MANUFACTURING STRUCTURE

OF CANADIAN CITIES

by

ANTHONY CECIL 0'CARROLL

B,A, (Hons.) University of London, 1962

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF

THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF ARTS

in the Department of

Geography

We accept this thesis as conforming to the

required standard

THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

1970

In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements f.

an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree tha

the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study.

I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis

for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or

by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication

of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my

written permission.

Department of ' 0 ~ ^ C O

(A

The University of B r i t i s h Columbia

Vancouver 8, Canada

Date ^ C w N ^ m O

i

Abstract

The overall purpose of this study i s to provide new insights into

the Canadian urban system through an analysis of economic a c t i v i t i e s at

the inter-urban scale. The thesis analyses the urban system i n terms

of secondary economic a c t i v i t i e s , more spe c i f i c a l l y through the manufac

turing industries of 41 Canadian c i t i e s with a population of over 30,000

i n 1961.

The investigation contains elements of traditional c l a s s i f i c a t i o n

oriented and economic base approaches to urban economic functional

analysis. However, an attempt i s made to use the idea of the urban

system to provide a more productive analysis of inter-urban economic

functions.

Correlation and bonding techniques are used to establish patterns of manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s , upon which to base further analysis. Eight sets of c i t i e s and five distinct types of manufacturing pro f i l e are identified for the 41 c i t i e s , and the structural-spatial regulari t i e s identified are f e l t to be consistent with a center-periphery model of the general overall manufacturing structure of the Canadian economy.

The analysis i s pursued i n terms of the investigation of the relationships between predominant manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s of c i t i e s and various aspects of city size and location. Forward stepwise regression was considered an appropriate s t a t i s t i c a l procedure for the purpose of examining these relationships. From this analysis s i m i l a r i t i e s between the c i t i e s are p a r t i a l l y related to factors of size, relative location and h i s t o r i c a l evolution.

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CHAPTER

I

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Statement of Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

II ANALYSIS OF URBAN ECONOMIC FUNCTIONS . . . . . . . . . 5

C i t y Functional C l a s s i f i c a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . 6

Economic Base Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

The Urban System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Canada: The Context of the Study . . . . . . . . . 16

III THE MANUFACTURING STRUCTURE OF LARGER CANADIAN

CITIES, 1961 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Data Sources and Techniques . . . . . . . . . . .

Procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

IV ANALYSIS OF INTER-CITY SIMILARITIES IN MANUFACTURING

STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o . . . . . . . . 46

Relat ive Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

H i s t o r i c a l Evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Data: Manufacturing S i m i l a r i t i e s . . . . . . . . . 52

Operational D e f i n i t i o n of Independent Variables , 54

20

20

X X I

CHAPTER

S i z e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ° .

R e l a t i v e L o c a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . .

H i s t o r i c a l E v o l u t i o n . . . . . . . . . . .

T e s t s o f Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A n a l y s i s o f r e s i d u a l s . . . . . . . . . .

Q u a l i f i c a t i o n s t o a G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

V CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

APPENDIX T a b l e . o f L o c a t i o n Q u o t i e n t s . . . . . . . . . . .

PAGE

54

54

55

56

62

65

71

72

77

82

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

I S i m i l a r i t i e s of Manufacturing Structure of Canadian

C i t i e s , 1961, i n Rank Order of Size . . . . . . . 25

II Basic Pairs and Sets . „ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

III Summary of D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n and S p e c i a l i z a t i o n of

Industry i n Larger Canadian C i t i e s . . . . . . . . 41

IV D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n and S p e c i a l i z a t i o n i n Canadian Urban

Manufacturing 1961 by C i t y Size Class . . . . . . 48

V Processing, Fabr ica t ing , D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n and S p e c i a l

i z a t i o n of the Heartland and Periphery: Canada, 1961 51

VI Model I Stepwise Regression of 108 Obs„ at 95% C L . . 60

VII Model II Stepwise Regression of 63 Obs. at 95% C L . . 61

VIII Residuals from Model I i n Quarti les . . . . . . . . . 63

IX Residuals from Model II i n Quarti les . . . . . . . . . 63

X Signif icant Residuals from Model I (Over I . S . D . ) . , . 66

XI S ignif icant Residuals from Model II (Over I . S . D . ) . . 67

XII Correlat ion Coeff ic ients of Independent Variables i n

Model I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

XIII Correlat ion Coeff ic ients of Independent Variables i n

Model II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

XIV Ratio of Possible to Actual S i m i l a r i t i e s (Signif icant

Correlations) i n the Heartland and Periphery . . . 75

LIST OF FIGURES

Location of 41 C i t i e s over 30,000, 1961 . . . . .

Bonding Between Peripheral C i t i e s at the 99%

Confidence Level „ „ . » . . . . » . . . » . .

Bonding Between Heartland C i t i e s at the 99%

Confidence Level ~ . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bonding Between Peripheral and Heartland C i t i e s at

the 99% Confidence Level „ . » . . . . . . . .

Scatter P l o t s of Manufacturing S i m i l a r i t i e s . . .

v i

LIST OF GRAPHS

GRAPH PAGE

1 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type A. Calgary - Regina . . . 31

2 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type B. Sudbury - Sydney . . . 31

3 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type C, Windsor - Moncton , . 31

4 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type D. Hamilton - Welland . . 31

5 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type D. Cornwall - Trois

Rivieres « . » , . . » . . . « « . » . , . . . . . 32

6 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type D. Sherbrooke - Brantford 32

7 Manufacturing P r o f i l e : Type E. Montreal - Quebec . . 32

8 Manufacturing Pr o f i l e : Type E. B e l l e v i l l e -

Peterborough . . . . . . . . „ . . . . . . . . . . 32

Acknowled gment s

Thanks are due to many people f o r

t h e i r help and advice during various stages

of research and w r i t i n g , i n p a r t i c u l a r to

Dr. R. Leigh, my adviser and Mr, George Cho

for drawing the maps and graphs.

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of the thesis i s to describe and explain aspects

of the Canadian Urban System, especially i n terms of the manufacturing

ac t i v i t i e s of i t s metropolitan areas and larger c i t i e s . It i s also

hoped to develop a valid and reliable method of comparing c i t i e s i n

terms of these a c t i v i t i e s , which can then be u t i l i z e d In further i n

vestigations covering a wider range of economic a c t i v i t i e s . The

contribution of this thesis i t i s hoped w i l l be thus both substantive

and methodological. In one sense i t i s a p i l o t study for an Investi

gation of Canadian Urban economic geography.

The significance of any such investigation, and indeed of this thesis, i s the u t i l i z a t i o n of primary and/or secondary economic a c t i v i t i e s i n the analysis of the relationship between urban structure and urban location. U n t i l recently most studies of urban location have approached analysis by focusing on tertiary economic a c t i v i t i e s . The large amount of "Central Place" studies has been the result. While Central Place Theory remains the most sophisticated theory of urban location, i t provides only one view of the problem. By adding primary and secondary industrial sectors to the analysis, a multi-layered view-point w i l l be developed.

Berry has recently pointed out that urban location theories should develop from the three stages of economic act i v i t y that support

^ How-c i t i e s , v i z . , e x t r a c t i v e , processing and d i s t r i b u t i v e a c t i v i t i e s .

ever, i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n theory has not. e x p l i c i t l y developed towards

explaining the r e l a t i o n s h i p between r e a l world regional patterns of

manufacturing a c t i v i t y and urban l o c a t i o n s . So f a r , the theory has been

generally concerned with the analysis of the e f f e c t s of l o c a t i o n a l

factors f o r s p e c i f i c i n d u s t r i e s . However, Ray f e e l s that " l o c a t i o n 2

theories should r e l a t e urban functions to l o c a t i o n , " thus i n d u s t r i a l

l o c a t i o n theory should be extended to the analysis of urban i n d u s t r i a l

structure and c i t y l o c a t i o n , and t h i s i s the primary purpose of t h i s

t h e s i s . Statement of Problem

I t i s recognized that economic a c t i v i t i e s are only one sector

of the various elements which characterize a c i t y . They are, however,

a prominent element. Lampard suggests a symbiotic r e l a t i o n s h i p between

s o c i a l and economic forces when he writes "The modern c i t y i s a mode of 3

s o c i a l organization which furthers e f f i c i e n c y i n economic a c t i v i t y . "

Higbee expresses s i m i l a r ideas when he states "The average American c i t y

J . L . B e r r y , T h e o r i e s of U r b a n L o c a t i o n , Commiss ion on C o l l e g e Geography R e f e r e n c e Paper #1, ( W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 8 ) .

2 D. M . R a y , " U r b a n Growth and t h e Concept o f t h e F u n c t i o n a l

R e g i o n , " i n Urban S t u d i e s : A C a n a d i a n P e r s p e c t i v e , e d s , N . L i t h w i c k and G. P a c q u e t , ( T o r o n t o , 1 9 6 8 ) , p . 4 6 .

3 E . Lampard, " H i s t o r y o f C i t i e s i n t h e E c o n o m i c a l l y Advanced

A r e a s , " i n R e g i o n a l Development and P l a n n i n g , e d s , J . F r i e d m a n n and W. A l o n s o , ( M a s s a c h u s e t t s , 1 9 6 4 ) , p . 3 3 2 .

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of our time i s a working c i t y = Economically the main job i s j o b s . " ^

If economic a c t i v i t y i s one of the c i t y ' s main reasons for existence,

i t s use i n the analysis of urban locat ion i s j u s t i f i e d , A l l Canadian

c i t i e s have a range of economic a c t i v i t i e s and this study w i l l direc t

invest igat ion v i a the analysis of manufacturing a c t i v i t i e s at the i n t e r

urban scale .

The choice of manufacturing rather than the whole range of

economic a c t i v i t y i s determined by the scope of this t h e s i s . It i s

f e l t that i n l i m i t i n g the study to a specia l ized aspect of economic

a c t i v i t y , greater substantive and methodological returns w i l l be made.

Manufacturing industry i s perhaps a sounder choice than other groups

of industry as i t i s more obviously connected with c i t i e s , rather than

r u r a l areas and small centers of population, which are not c l a s s i f i e d

as c i t i e s . In connection with this F i e l d and Kerr have writ ten "Manu

facturing i s e s s e n t i a l l y an urban phenomenon which i s d is t r ibuted

through the urban hierarchy."" '

The "economic a c t i v i t y " approach to urban analysis has long been

established by functional c i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s and by economic base

studies. More recently mult ivariate analysis at the nat ional and

metropolitan levels has Isolated economic a c t i v i t i e s as d i s t i n c t com

ponents of the c u l t u r a l landscape. It Is f e l t , however, that an urban

E. HIgbee, The Squeeze, (New York, 1960), p. 29. 5

N. C. F i e l d and D. P. Kerr, Geographical Aspects of Industr ia l Growth i n the Metropolitan Toronto Region, unpublished manuscript, (Toronto, 1968), p. 1.

4

"systems" approach to such an analysis may be more productive than

e x i s t i n g approaches i n the analysis of urban economic functions.

The next chapter discusses some t r a d i t i o n a l approaches to the

study of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the l o c a t i o n of manufacturing

a c t i v i t i e s and the l o c a t i o n and functions of c i t i e s . I t also discusses

the p a r t i c u l a r case of Canada, as a prologue to the d e s c r i p t i o n and

analysis of aspects of Canadian urban manufacturing. In a d d i t i o n , the

notion of an "urban systems" approach to the analysis of urban economic

functions i s discussed. I t Is f e l t that t h i s thesis i s not i d e n t i c a l

with the t r a d i t i o n a l approaches summarized, although I t i s a l l i e d to

them, but i s concerned more with the s p e c i a l i z e d economic functions

of the larger c i t i e s i n the Canadian urban system.

CHAPTER II

ANALYSIS OF URBAN ECONOMIC FUNCTIONS

Approaches to the analysis of urban economic functions have

hitherto been mainly from two d i r e c t i o n s . The f i r s t can be termed

" c l a s s i f i c a t i o n - o r i e n t e d , " where the purpose of the work seems to be

i n the production of a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of settlements based on economic

functions . The underlying concept i s that c i t i e s have d i s t i n c t and

charac ter is t i c economic functions, and consequently most of the work

has been directed towards the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and measurement of these

functions . L i t t l e attempt has been made to re la te the functions to

other variables i n order to determine s p a t i a l r e g u l a r i t i e s and r e l a t i o n

ships . ̂

The second approach, the analysis of the urban "economic base , "

provides a framework to describe the economic funct ional structure of

c i t i e s and their re la t ionships with other c i t i e s and with other l o c a -

t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . Urban economic base studies attempt to define the

c i t y as an economic region i n terms of i t s inputs and outputs, which

implies relat ionships external to the c i t y . Exis t ing work has been

directed towards both precise measurement of the economic functions of

the c i t y (or region) and to the determination of the re la t ionship of

Although some authors write as though the purpose of c i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s i s to allow such later analysis to be made.

6 2

the c i t y (or region) to other c i t i e s (regions) within the nat ion,

Both these approaches are related to a cer ta in degree. Some con

cepts and methods, such as the basie-nonbasic concept and the base

r a t i o , are used extensively i n both approaches. The chief difference

appears to be the emphasis placed upon the economic and l o c a t i o n a l

relat ionships of c i t y (or region) with the rest of the nat ion ; t h i s

tends to be greater i n economic base s tudies . A t h i r d approach draws

elements from both these t r a d i t i o n a l approaches and i s termed an

"urban systems" approach. These approaches are evaluated more thorough

l y i n the following sections,

C i t y Functional C l a s s i f i c a t i o n

Ci ty funct ional c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s have been based almost exclusively

on the examination of urban economic a c t i v i t i e s . Comprehensive summaries 3

have been made of these c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s by many wri te rs , notably Smith,

4 5 Maxwell and Garner. Generally i t Is concluded that no one c l a s s i f i c a

t ion method i s the best and that several methods can be employed to

^Reviews of Economic Base Studies are given by: R. Murphy, American C i t i e s , (New York, 1966); C. Tiebout, The Community Economic Base Study, Supplementary Paper 16, (New York, 1962).

3 R. H. T . Smith, "Methods and Purposes i n Functional Town

C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s , " Annals of A . A . G . , (1965), pp. 539-548. 4

J . Maxwell, "A Functional C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Canadian C i t i e s , " (unpublished Master's Thesis , The Universi ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1964).

"*B. Garner, "Models of Urban Geography and Settlement L o c a t i o n , " i n Models i n Geography, eds, R. Chorley and P. Haggett, (London, 1967), Chapter 9.

achieve an "optimum" c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . However, Smith and others further

attack these c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s on the grounds that c l a s s i f i c a t i o n per se

does not play a v a l i d ro le i n s c i e n t i f i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n . This i s a

c r u c i a l point , as a l l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s tend to conceal s i g n i f i c a n t

r e l a t i o n s h i p s . It i s , therefore, v i t a l to develop a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n

that w i l l reveal most c l e a r l y the p a r t i c u l a r re la t ionships which are

to be invest igated. Any evaluation of c i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s must keep

th is i n mind.

Functional c l a s s i f i c a t i o n schemes have often approached the

problem of group assignment by providing a pre-determined base measure

to act as the discr iminat ing c r i t e r i o n . This base measure has been pro

duced by q u a l i t a t i v e and quantitat ive techniques, although generally

6 7

the l a t t e r have been most prominent. Aurousseau and Harr is derived

their bench-mark from a q u a l i t a t i v e assessment of d i s t i n c t i v e c i t y types.

C i t i e s were then assigned Into single funct ional groups. These simple

c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s are inevi tably imprecise, as most c i t i e s display m u l t i

funct ional c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . More important, the basis of the "bench

mark" i s not v a l i d l y established by such q u a l i t a t i v e assessment of

d i s t i n c t i v e types of economic functions.

M u l t i - f u n c t i o n a l and quantitative c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s have countered

some of the above objections. These c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s , by using employment

M. Aurousseau, "The D i s t r i b u t i o n of Populations: A Constructive Problem," Geographical Review, II (1921), pp. 563-592.

7 C . H a r r i s , "A Functional C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of C i t i e s i n the United States , " Geographical Review, 33 (1943), pp. 86-99.

8

i n selected i n d u s t r i e s , assign c i t i e s to groups by means of a quanti tat ive

'd iscr iminat ing c r i t e r i o n ' . An example i s Nelson's c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of

American c i t i e s . Ten categories of c i t y economic a c t i v i t y were estab

l i s h e d , and c i t i e s assigned to one or more category i f the i r employment

totals were higher than one standard deviat ion from the category mean.

It i s in teres t ing to compare the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Harris and Nelson,

as Murphy has done. It Is seen that many c i t i e s are given d i f f e r e n t

ra t ings ; for instance, Pi t tsburg i s a manufacturing c i t y i n H a r r i s '

scheme and a d i v e r s i f i e d one i n Nelson 's . A major c r i t i c i s m of Nelson's

(multiple) method i s that the use of the standard deviat ion hides a

s i g n i f i c a n t groupings of functions. Thus, while i t may be more v a l i d

and r e l i a b l e than the s ingle function c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , i t may also con

ceal as much as i t reveals .

Maxwell developed a more sophisticated c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme

for Canadian c i t i e s . " ^ He established thir teen categories of c i t y

economic function and produced three discr iminat ing c r i t e r i a , v i z . ,

two types of funct ional importance ('dominant' and ' d i s t i n c t i v e ' func

tions) and a ' s p e c i a l i z a t i o n index ' . These c r i t e r i a were derived from

minimum requirements measures, where ' b a s i c ' employment i s separated

from 'nonbasic' by the use of ' threshold values ' as c l a s s i f i c a t o r y

minima, to give groups of town characterized by maximum within-group and

H. Nelson, "A Service C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of American C i t i e s , " Economic Geography, 31, (1955), pp. 189-210.

9

R. Murphy, op_. c i t .

" ^ J . Maxwell, op_. c i t .

minimum between-group homogeneity i n terms of basic-nonbasic a c t i v i t i e s .

However, the basic-nonbasic concept (and r a t i o ) has been under consider

able attack from many w r i t e r s for some time and thus the weaknesses of 11

the concept must be kept i n mind when i n t e r p r e t i n g the r e s u l t s .

Maxwell's scheme can be further c r i t i c i z e d f or i t s acceptance of

Ullman and Dacey's minimum requirements equations, which were derived 12

from United States census f i g u r e s ; also group assignment i s made on

the basis of a r b i t r a r i l y determined cut-off points, which, as previously

mentioned, may conceal s i g n i f i c a n t f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . I t can be

concluded that whatever i t s merits, the use of t h i s method adds an

element of uncertainty to analysis of urban economic functions.

Recently optimal groupings of c i t i e s into classes has been

achieved by m u l t i v a r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s . The value of t h i s

approach Is In the reduction and manipulation of masses of data and i n

the precise measurements which can be given to s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n

ships. Factor analysis Is one of the more useful d e s c r i p t i v e techniques

employed by t h i s approach. I t helps to uncover r e l a t i o n s h i p s which

might not be obvious by q u a l i t a t i v e assessment, by i d e n t i f y i n g the basic 13

dimensions of the system under ana l y s i s . However, there has been a 11

The basic-nonbasic concept w i l l be discussed i n the next section, 12

E. Ullman and M, Dacey, "The Minimum Requirements Approach to the Urban Economic Base," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, V ol. 6 (1960), pp. 175-194,

13 Two of the e a r l i e s t of such studies i n the urban context were

C. Moser and W, Scott, B r i t i s h Towns, (London, 1961); Q. Ahmad, Indian C i t i e s , (Chicago, 1965),

tendency to produce those studies without any theore t i ca l background to

the research f i e l d being investigated. King points this out and stresses

the need for further inves t igat ion between exis t ing theory and the

empirical f indings of a n a l y s i s . 1 4

In h is study, King analyses 106 Canadian c i t i e s which i n 1951

had populations i n excess of 10,000. Data i s u t i l i z e d for 52 economic,

demographic, s o c i a l and l o c a t i o n a l charac ter is t i cs for 1951 and 1961,

These two sets of data are reduced by factor analysis and c l a s s i f i e d by

a grouping algorithm. It can be argued that the use of such diverse

variables does not f a c i l i t a t e formulation of hypotheses concerning

urban structure and urban l o c a t i o n . However, the groupings derived

from factor analysis do provide empirical evidence upon which to develop

hypotheses, and suggests that the use of more precise var iables ( e . g . ,

economic a c t i v i t i e s ) may f a c i l i t a t e the development of hypothesis con

cerning urban s t r u c t u r a l - l o c a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s .

Economic Base Studies

A second approach to urban economic analysis can be loosely

termed the economic-base approach. This usually surveys the economic

base of i n d i v i d u a l c i t y or groups of c i t i e s by q u a l i t a t i v e and quanti

tat ive methods, which are largely based on the basic-nonbasic concept.

Murphy^""* has outlined four methods which, e s s e n t i a l l y , measure the

L . J . King, "Cross Sectional Analysis of Canadian Urban Dimensions: 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 6 1 , " Canadian Geography, 1 0 , ( 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 2 0 5 - 2 2 4 .

15 R. Murphy, op_. c i t .

11

economic base of a c i t y or region:

1. The "approximation method", which compares the employment

pattern of the area under study with that of the nation and

assumes that the population of a p a r t i c u l a r urban area

consumes Its proportional share of the nat ional to ta ls of

goods and services and that production beyond this amount

i s b a s i co The method i s quantif ied by using loca t ion

quotients.

2. The "economic survey and base study" makes a deta i led input -

output analysis of an area, i n order to discover firms

making sales to other areas.

3. The " s i g n i f i c a n t enterprises method" t r i e s to evaluate by

means of a qual i ta t ive assessment which are the most

s i g n i f i c a n t (export) enterprises . Study of these then gives

an i n d i c a t i o n of what i s happening to the communities'

economic base as a whole.

4. The "minimum-requirements" method which makes a s t a t i s t i c a l

estimate of l o c a l employment, counting the surplus as bas ic .

The dependence on the basic-nonbasic concept i s a major weakness of

those c l a s s i f i c a t i o n schemes which use the basic-nonbasic r a t i o or the

minimum-requirements method to Identify the " r e a l " economy of the c i t y ,

16

since the concept I t s e l f has several weaknesses. Bluemenfeld, one of

16

H, Bluemenf e l d , "The Economic Bas-e of the M e t r o p o l i s , " Journal of American Insti tute of Planners, V o l , 21, (1955), pp. 114-132.

12

i t s f i r s t c r i t i c s , pointed out that nonbasic i n d u s t r i e s were eventually

more important than basic ones as c i t i e s could develop new "export"

i n d u s t r i e s , given an adequate nonbasic service structure, Roterus and 17

Calef demonstrated that s i z e of c i t y a f f e c t s the base r a t i o and

suggested, i n f a c t , that the only v a l i d measurement unit was the nation.

Further c r i t i c i s m has pointed out that as c i t i e s are f u n c t i o n a l l y i n t e r

r e l a t e d i n a highly complex manner a d e f i n i t i v e r a t i o i s impossible; that

employment cannot be divided into basic and nonbasic as e a s i l y as the

concept impli e s ; that time can allow change of nonbasic a c t i v i t i e s i n t o

basic ones. More p r a c t i c a l c r i t i c i s m s are of the e f f e c t s of v a r i a t i o n s

i n base areas and of techniques of analysis on base estimation which, at

l e a s t , make r a t i o comparisons open to some doubt. Garner points out i n

h i s review of the economic base approach that i f the concept i s to be

accepted and applied c o n s i s t e n t l y , development of s a t i s f a c t o r y methods 18

of procedure i s c r u c i a l .

The Urban System

A t h i r d approach to the analysis of urban economic functions i s

concerned with the interdependence of economic functions of a n a t i o n a l

set of c i t i e s . Leigh i n a study of aspects of movement i n the urban

system f e e l s that the urban places of a n a t i o n a l taken together show

" . , . a c o l l e c t i v e structure and behavior and can be described as a

V. Roterus and W. Calef, "Notes on the Basic-Nonbasic Employment Ratio," Economic Geography, 31, (1955), pp. 17-20.

18 B. Garner, op_. c i t . , p. 332.

13

19 'system'," This "systems" approach includes elements of f u n c t i o n a l

c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s , ( v i z , , i s o l a t i o n of a c i t y ' s economic function w i t h i n

the nation),

Descriptions of the t y p i c a l s t r u c t u r a l and behavioral character

i s t i c s of the urban system i n a large modern I n d u s t r i a l i z e d nation have 20

been given by Berry, These descriptions are, i n part, derived from

i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n theory but are, perhaps, over-generalized. There

i s a need here, f o r research on s p e c i f i c economic functions w i t h i n the

urban system, to provide more evidence for the presently a v a i l a b l e

rather i m p r e s s i o n i s t i c notions, and to elaborate further on the s t r u c

t u r a l and behavioral c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the urban system.

Associated with t h i s "systems" approach i s "commodity flow"

a n a l y s i s , which o f f e r s a possible method of i n v e s t i g a t i o n . By measuring

the s p a t i a l flows of goods, money and services i n an economy i t i s

possible to group the complexities of economic st r u c t u r e . Berry has

analysed the s p a t i a l structure of the Indian economy by t r e a t i n g commod

i t y flows as observations, and devising r e l a t i v e measures of t h e i r 21

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , o r i g i n s and destinations. Although h i s study i s con

cerned with regional economic structure, the concept and techniques are

R. Leigh, "Aspects of Movement i n Urban Systems," (unpublished manuscript, The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1969).

20 B. J. L. Berry, Theories of Urban Location, Commission on

College Geography, Reference Paper #1, (Washington, 1968). 21

Bo J, L, Berry, Essays on Commodity Flows and the S p a t i a l Structure of the Indian Economy, (Chicago, 1966).

14

e q u a l l y a p p l i c a b l e to the economic s t r u c t u r e of c i t i e s i f the data p r o b l e m c o u l d be s o l v e d . Stone t h i n k s that

, , , t h e most s e n s i t i v e i n d i c a t o r s of the p e r f o r m a n c e of m e t r o p o l i t a n f u n c t i o n s among a s e t o f u r b a n a g g l o m e r a t i o n s w o u l d be p r o v i d e d by the d a t a on f l o w s of c o m m o d i t i e s and s e r v i c e s among the c e n t e r s ;22

Of c o u r s e , t h e h a n d i c a p h e r e i s the g r e a t l a c k of t y p e - s p e c i f i c and

l o c a t i o n - s p e c i f i c f l o w d a t a f o r a l m o s t a l l n a t i o n s .

Summary

A n a l y s i s o f c i t i e s i n terms of t h e i r economic f u n c t i o n s i s a

u s e f u l a p p r o a c h i n I n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e l o c a t i o n a l a s p e c t s o f c i t i e s .

The e x i s t i n g approaches to such an a n a l y s i s , as r e v i e w e d i n t h i s

c h a p t e r , p r e s e n t c o n c e p t u a l and p r a c t i c a l problems w h i c h i n f l u e n c e

f u t u r e c h o i c e s o f a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b l e m . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f economic

f u n c t i o n s f o r i t s own sake may n o t f a c i l i t a t e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f l o c a t i o n a l

a s p e c t s o f t h e c i t i e s t h u s c l a s s i f i e d . Any g r o u p i n g o f f u n c t i o n s o r

c i t i e s must be made up w i t h t h e s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h p r o b l e m i n v i e w and

t h i s o m i t s t h e use o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s d e v e l o p e d f r o m o t h e r a n a l y s e s .

I n e v i t a b l y , g r o u p i n g means l o s s o f I n f o r m a t i o n , b u t i t can a l s o r e s u l t

I n c l a r i t y and s i m p l i c i t y o f a n a l y s i s and e x p l a n a t i o n . M u l t i v a r i a t e

t e c h n i q u e s , i f s u i t a b l e t o t h e p r o b l e m and c o r r e c t l y a p p l i e d , o f f e r

g r e a t e r r e t u r n s t o i n v e s t i g a t i o n .

L. 0 , S t o n e , Urban Development i n Canada, ( O t t a w a , 1 9 6 7 ) , p . 187.

15

Economic base studies, at t h e i r best, may be suggestive of

r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c i t y and c i t y but these are often d i f f i c u l t to

i n t e r p r e t due to the underlying d i f f i c u l t i e s of the basic-nonbasic

concept. Commcdity-flow a n a l y s i s , while o f f e r i n g the greatest p o t e n t i a l

returns has several drawbacks at the present time. F i r s t , while such

analysis does measure the s i g n i f i c a n c e of industry as a whole, i t con

ceals the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the component parts of economic a c t i v i t y .

Generally commodity-flow analysis w i l l best explain economic processes

between c i t i e s , rather than i n t e r n a l v a r i a t i o n i n t h e i r economic

structure. Inter-industry linkage a n a l y s i s , however, may reduce t h i s

l i m i t a t i o n . The second point Is concerned with the p r a c t i c a l problem

of data c o l l e c t i o n . Generally data are i n s u f f i c i e n t and often not

suited to the nature of the problem. For these reasons economic base

and commodity-flow analysis are not considered applicable to the problem

of urban structure and urban l o c a t i o n , as I t Is considered here. Analy

s i s of the urban economic functions of a nation may perhaps be most

productively conducted through a "systems" approach. This allows an

i n v e s t i g a t i o n of s p e c i f i c f u n c t i o n a l aspects of c i t i e s w i t h i n the

national set of urban places, while preserving a sense of t h e i r i n t e r

dependence w i t h i n the nation.

Before the precise problem of t h i s thesis i s o u t l i n e d , a review

of research on Canadian urban functions w i l l be made, from both method

o l o g i c a l and substantive points of view. The l a t t e r viewpoint w i l l

i s o l a t e manufacturing from the range of economic, s o c i a l and demographic

functions which are found In the published studies, since manufacturing

i s the focus of t h i s study.

Canada: The Context of the Study-

Canada provides a good opportunity to r e l a t e urban manufacturing

functions to urban l o c a t i o n , due to the absence of a highly s p a t i a l l y

integrated megalopolis such as found In the United States of America

and Western Europe-, However, there are s u r p r i s i n g l y few studies of

manufacturing functions at the inter-urban scale- Most studies have 23

concentrated on the analysis of a sin g l e c i t y or small region. Varied 24

aspects of the Canadian urban system have been described by Maxwell 25

and King. The techniques that were employed have already been re

viewed and evaluated. They f a l l under the heading " c l a s s i f i c a t i o n -

oriented" as they are mainly concerned with the development of group

ings of c i t i e s . In t h i s section t h e i r substantive conclusions w i l l be 26

reviewed. In addition to these i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , Ray has recently

produced a study of regional development and c u l t u r a l d i fference i n

Canada for 1961 which has some relevance for t h i s study of manufactur

ing a c t i v i t i e s i n Canadian c i t i e s .

Maxwell i d e n t i f i e d a "heartland-periphery" pattern i n h i s

a n a l y s i s . This pattern showed two d i s t i n c t features: s p e c i a l i z a t i o n 23 See Canadian Council on Urban & Regional Research, Urban &_

Regional References, 1945-62; Supplemental 1963-64, 1965-67, (Ottawa). ^J. Maxwell, op, c i t , 25

L. J , King, op_, c i t , 26 D. M, Ray, "The S p a t i a l Structure of Regional Development and

Cu l t u r a l Differences: A F a c t o r i a l Ecology of Canada 1961," (Paper presented to Regional Science Association, November, 1968).

17

of c i t y f u n c t i o n g e n e r a l l y i n c r e a s e s w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e d i m p o r t a n c e o f

m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n c i t y s t r u c t u r e , and h e a r t l a n d c i t i e s ( i . e . , c i t i e s o f

South O n t a r i o and South Quebec) a r e g e n e r a l l y more s p e c i a l i z e d t h a n t h e

p e r i p h e r a l c i t i e s . L i t t l e a t t e m p t I s made by M a x w e l l t o e x p l a i n t h e

p a t t e r n I n terms o f i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n and c e n t r a l - p l a c e t h e o r y , a l

though some r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e h i n t e d a t . F o r e x a m p l e , F o r t W i l l i a m -

P o r t A r t h u r a r e " p e r i p h e r y " c i t i e s w h i c h show s i g n i f i c a n t m a n u f a c t u r i n g

f u n c t i o n s , due t o b o t h l o c a l advantages ( i . e . , b r e a k - o f - b u l k f u n c t i o n )

and p o s i t i o n as a r e g i o n a l c a p i t a l . However, t h e s e c i t i e s a r e grouped

by M a x w e l l w i t h C h i c o u t i m i , w h i c h does not e x h i b i t t h o s e same l o c a t i o n a l

f a c t o r s , and no a t t e m p t i s made t o e x p l a i n t h i s seeming anomaly . I n

f a c t , o n l y a g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n I s advanced t o e x p l a i n t h e

t e n d e n c i e s f o r r e g i o n a l groups o f c i t i e s t o be s i m i l a r i n f u n c t i o n a l

s t r u c t u r e . M a x w e l l h i m s e l f s t a t e s " . . . t h e c i t y g r o u p i n g s d e v e l o p e d

do not a l l o w an e x h a u s t i v e a n a l y s i s o f c i t y f u n c t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e t o be

made.

E i g h t o f K i n g ' s 54 v a r i a b l e s i n t h e 1951 s t u d y were m a n u f a c t u r i n g

employment c a t e g o r i e s ; t h u s a s t r u c t u r e based on m a n u f a c t u r i n g i s l a r g e l y

o v e r l a i d by o t h e r u r b a n d i m e n s i o n s i n h i s a n a l y s i s . One s i g n i f i c a n t

f i n d i n g , however , was a group of " f r o n t i e r i n d u s t r i a l c i t i e s " , w h i c h i t

i s s u g g e s t e d r e f l e c t e d t h e " . . . r e l a t i v e i m m a t u r i t y o f t h e u r b a n

s y s t e m and ( o f ) t h e f a c t t h a t as a network t h e s y s t e m i s n o t a h i g h l y

J . Maxwell, "The Functional Structure of Canadian C i t i e s , A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of C i t i e s , " Geographical B u l l e t i n , 17 , ( 1 9 6 5 ) , p. 9 5 .

18

developed one," 2^ In terms of manufacturing there were few other d i s t i n c t

groups i n King's analys is , although the more general patterns found do,

i n part , r e f l e c t latent manufacturing funct ions . In this sense the

groups of Southern Ontario, Quebec, the P r a i r i e Provinces and the

Maritimes, bear further analys is , i n terms of the i r manufacturing

functions .

Ray based his groupings on data col lec ted f o r the 229 census

d i v i s i o n s i n Canada i n 1961. The invest igat ion i s , therefore, not

s t r i c t l y speaking, at the inter-urban scale . However, the f indings are

relevant and regional economic development does p a r t i a l l y r e f l e c t the

manufacturing structure of the nat ion 's c i t i e s . Ray's interest i n

manufacturing was slanted towards the effect of non-Canadian ownership

of industry on regional and economic development. In this respect h is

f indings suggested a " m u l t i p l e - n u c l e i i " pattern of i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n s ,

although this i t s e l f r e f l e c t s , " . . . a c c e s s i b i l i t y to market, proximity

to U. S. Corporation head o f f i c e s and access to raw materials and

n29 energy.

Ray l a t e r points out that the m u l t i p l e - n u c l e i i pattern used i n

his analysis i s inappropriate for manufacturing industry , which he goes

on to describe i n center-peripheral terms la ter i n the paper.

A l l these writers conclude that more questions have been raised

than answered and suggest that analysis of s p e c i f i c groups of i n d u s t r i a l

'L. J . King, op_, c i t , , p. 221.

D. M. Ray, op_. c i t . , p. 2.

19

a c t i v i t i e s should provide clearer explanations of some of t h e i r pro

vocative f i n d i n g s . Concentration of analysis on one such group of

a c t i v i t i e s , manufacturing industry, i s the express purpose of t h i s

i n v e s t i g a t i o n .

The fo l l o w i n g two chapters i n v e s t i g a t e aspects of Canadian urban

manufacturing structure. Chapter I I I e x p l i c i t l y compares larger

Canadian c i t i e s i n terms of manufacturing functions only, using 1961

data, something not previously done i n the l i t e r a t u r e ; s i m i l a r i t i e s and

differences between c i t i e s are r e l a t e d to the locations of c i t i e s and

evaluated i n terms of the center-periphery model, and other hypotheses

of Canadian urbanism. This i n v e s t i g a t i o n , while more re f i n e d than

previous studies of Canadian manufacturing at the inter-urban l e v e l ,

i s , nevertheless, l i m i t e d i n scope by i t s use of the coarsest data.

This comprises the 20 Standard I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n (S.I.C.) manu

factur i n g categories for 41 c i t i e s which had a population of over 30,000

i n 1961. Chapter IV suggests a v a r i a b l e index of i n t e r - c i t y manufactur

ing s i m i l a r i t y , and t r i e s to develop a model that explains i n t e r - c i t y

s i m i l a r i t y i n manufacturing structure i n r e l a t i o n to c i t y r e l a t i v e

l o c a t i o n , c i t y s i z e and c i t y h i s t o r y . The notion that we are dealing

with c i t i e s that are s p e c i a l i z e d components i n a larger urban system

i s i m p l i c i t throughout the following chapters.

CHAPTER I I I

THE MANUFACTURING STRUCTURE OF LARGER CANADIAN C I T I E S , 1961

D a t a S o u r c e s and T e c h n i q u e s

The c i t i e s s t u d i e d h e r e a r e t h e 18 Census M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s

and t h e 23 c i t i e s o f Canada w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s o f o v e r 3 0 , 0 0 0 i n t h e

1961 census of C a n a d a , 1 (see F i g u r e 1 ) .

P r o c e d u r e s

The m a n u f a c t u r i n g s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c i t i e s i s r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e

f i r s t p l a c e by t h e employment f i g u r e s f o r t h e 20 major S t a n d a r d I n -

2 d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n ( S . I . C . ) m a n u f a c t u r i n g c a t e g o r i e s . The d a t a

can be v i s u a l i z e d as a r r a n g e d i n a 40 x 20 m a t r i x , each column a c i t y ,

3 each row an employment c a t e g o r y . Each column i s i n e f f e c t a p r o f i l e

D o m i n i o n Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s , C a n a d i a n C e n s u s , 1961 , V o l . I l l ,

Labour F o r c e , ( O t t a w a , 1 9 6 5 ) .

2 T h e S t a n d a r d I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n ( S . I . C . ) c a t e g o r i e s a r e :

1. Food and beverages 11 . P r i n t i n g , p u b l i s h i n g and a l l i e d

2. Tobacco p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r i e s

3 . Rubber i n d u s t r i e s 12. P r i m a r y m e t a l s

4 . L e a t h e r i n d u s t r i e s 13 . M e t a l f a b r i c a t i n g

5 . T e x t i l e I n d u s t r i e s 14. M a c h i n e r y i n d u s t r i e s

6. K n i t t i n g m i l l s 15. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment

7. C l o t h i n g i n d u s t r i e s 16. E l e c t r i c a l p r o d u c t s

8 . Wood i n d u s t r i e s 17. N o n m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l p r o d u c t s

9 . F u r n i t u r e and f i g u r e s 18, P e t r o l e u m - c o a l p r o d u c t s

10. Paper and a l l i e d i n d u s t r i e s 19. C h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s Paper and a l l i e d i n d u s t r i e s 2 0 . M i s c e l l a n e o u s

The c i t i e s o f P o r t A r t h u r and F o r t W i l l i a m a r e combined as t h i s seems a l o g i c a l way i n w h i c h t o p r o c e s s t h e d a t a more e f f i c i e n t l y . The d a t a m a t r i x i s thus a 20 x 40 i n s t e a d o f a 20 x 41 o n e . M a x w e l l comb i n e d t h e two c i t i e s f o r h i s a n a l y s i s ,

22

of the manufacturing structure or "manufacturing mix" of that designated

c i t y . The f i r s t step i n the analysis i s the determination of s i m i l a r i t y

or d i s s i m i l a r i t y of the c i t i e s i n terms of t h i s s t ructure , i . e . com

parison of the "columns" of the matrix. In order to remove the d i s

tor t ing effect of v a r i a t i o n i n c i t y population s i z e , i n affect to sharpen

the i n t e r - c i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s , the employment totals are converted into 4

r e l a t i v e measures ( location quotients) .

If the 40 c i t i e s are considered " v a r i a b l e s " and the 20 employment

categories "observations" the product moment c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t

between each c i t y pair over the employment categories, can be regarded

4 The l o c a t i o n quotient can be used according to Isard et a l . ,

Methods of Regional A n a l y s i s : An Introduction to Regional Science, (Mass., 1966), p. 125.

. . . as a rough benchmark In the analysis of a region's exports and imports . . ,

The formula for i t s computation for a given c i t y i s :

C i / C t T U

Ni7¥ w h e r e

C i i s the number of employees i n manufacturing industry i i n a given c i t y ;

C i s the number of employees i n a l l manufacturing Industries i n a given c i t y ;

Ni i s the number of employees i n manufacturing industry i i n the nat ion; and

N i s the number of employees In a l l manufacturing industr ies i n the nat ion.

By using locat ion quotients an economic base element i s introduced (in other words, c i t y s i m i l a r i t y i s viewed i n economic base terms). See Appendix 1 for Table of Location Quotients,

23

as a measure of i n t e r - c i t y s i m i l a r i t y of manufacturing industry."' The

r e s u l t i n g c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t matrix summarizes the complete p a i r -

wise i n t e r - c i t y comparison i n these terms.

I t could be generally hypothesized that s i m i l a r i t i e s between

c i t y manufacturing p r o f i l e s i n d i c a t e common sets of l o c a t i o n factors

i n c i t i e s f or urban industry. To develop s p e c i f i c hypotheses concerning

these f a c t o r s , i t i s necessary to explore " i n t e r c i t y s i m i l a r i t y " i n

manufacturing structure i n more d e t a i l . Bonding methods provide a

simple and convenient method of i n i t i a l grouping of " s i m i l a r c i t i e s " and

have h e u r i s t i c pay-offs. Two techniques, basic p a i r s and p- c l u s t e r s , are

u t i l i z e d to group the c i t i e s .

In the former technique, each v a r i a b l e w i t h i n the "basic p a i r " i s

more highly correlated with the other than with any other v a r i a b l e . They

form the n u c l e i ! of a set, which subsequently contains the highest

correlated variables with either of the p a i r . As t h i s technique does not

describe a l l the bonds, and thus may conceal s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s ,

the p-cluster technique i s also used. In t h i s case, a l l c o r r e l a t i o n s at

a given l e v e l of s i g n i f i c a n c e are shown; as the locations of the c i t i e s

are known, the bonds can be drawn d i r e c t l y on a map.

De t a i l s of computations are found i n J . H. B j e r r i n g , J . R, H. Dempster, and R. H. H a l l , U.B.C_. TRIP, U, B. C. Computing Centre, (1968). The data was normalized by a log-transformation. A discussion of normalization of data for human geography i s found i n P, Haggett, Locational Analysis i n Human Geography, tLondon, 1965), pp. 287-289. In the a n a l y s i s , zero l o c a t i o n quotients are represented by a nominal score of .001 before transformation,

6 See P, Haggett, op_. c i t . , pp. 283-286-,

24

Results

Out of the 780 possible c o r r e l a t i o n s i n the h a l f - m a t r i x , there

were altogether 410 p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s and 370 negative c o r r e l a t i o n s

but there were 108 p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s at the 95% confidence l e v e l

and 12 negative ones.'' I f the t o t a l number of p o s i t i v e as compared to

negative c o r r e l a t i o n s i n the r-matrix i s considered to i n d i c a t e o v e r a l l

s i m i l a r i t y , then Canadian c i t i e s are only s l i g h t l y more s i m i l a r than

d i s s i m i l a r . The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e there i s no o v e r a l l tendency f o r c i t i e s

to be a l i k e i n t h e i r manufacturing a c t i v i t i e s . However, the much higher

number of s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e to negative c o r r e l a t i o n s (at the 95%

confidence l e v e l ) shows a more pronounced tendency for c i t i e s to be

s i g n i f i c a n t l y s i m i l a r to some other c i t i e s , rather than very d i s s i m i l a r .

Table I summarizes the " s i g n i f i c a n t s i m i l a r i t i e s " of the c i t i e s

and i s arranged i n rank order of c i t y s i z e . Analysis of the p o s i t i v e

c o r r e l a t i o n s by bonding methods reveals several d i s t i n c t groups of

c i t i e s . Table I I summarizes the basic p a i r s and sets formed. There are

eight d i s t i n c t sets of c i t i e s , of f i v e types, which seem to correspond

to observed patterns i n the e x i s t i n g analyses by Maxwell and by King,

Calgary and Regina form the base of the largest set (I) which

also contains other c i t i e s from the peripheral regions of Canada, and

The r (multiple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t ) s t a t i s t i c was used i n t e s t i n g the general hypothesis that a l l p p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s are equal to zero. Tables compiled by A. Kozak, Department of Forestry, The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, (Vancouver, 1966).

25

TABLE I SIMILARITIES OF MANUFACTURING STRUCTURE OF CANADIAN CITIES,

1961, IN RANK ORDER OF POPULATION SIZE

C i t y Number of S i g n i f i c a n t Correlations at 95% C L .

S i g n i f i c a n t C orrelations at 95% C L ,

Montreal 1 Quebec ,55 Toronto 3 B e l l e v i l l e -55, London .55,

Brantford ,50 Vancouver 7 V i c t o r i a 66*, Edmonton ,57*,

Saskatoon .57*, Calgary ,55, St, John ,49, Moose Jaw .47, Regina ,46

Winnipeg 11 Edmonton ,62*, Saskatoon .58*, Ha l i f a x .57*, Calgary .55, Moose Jaw .52, Lethbridge ,50, St, John .49, St. John's .48, Regina ,46, Moncton .46, Windsor ,45

Ottawa 2 Pt, Arthur/Ft, William .52, Lethbridge ,46

Hamilton 5 Welland ,70*. Sydney .58*, Sudbury ,53, Chlcoutimi .45, Saulte Ste, Marie .45

Quebec 1 Montreal ,55 Edmonton 10 Calgary ,90*. Regina .87*,

Moose Jaw ,83*, Saskatoon .81*, Sarnia ,79*. H a l i f a x .69*, St. John ,67*, Winnipeg .62*. Vancouver ,57*, St. John's .46

Calgary 11 Regina ,93*. Edmonton ,90*, Saskatoon ,88*. Moose Jaw ,84*, Ha l i f a x .83*, St. John ,79*. Sarnia .72*, Winnipeg .55, Vancouver ,55, Lethbridge ,53, St, Johns ,51

Windsor 7 Moncton .77*, St, Catherines ,72*, Oshawa ,59*. V i c t o r i a ,54, St. John ,50, H a l i f a x .46, Winnipeg ,45

26

TABLE I (Continued)

H a l i f a x

London

Kitchener V i c t o r i a

Regina

Sudbury

St, John

11

2 4

14

Saskatoon 11

St, John's

Pt. Arthur/ Ft, William

Calgary ,83*, Moose Jaw ,82*, St, John =82*, Regina ,75*, Edmonton - 69*, Saskatoon ,68*, Sarnia ,62*, Moncton ,57*, Winnipeg ,57*. St, Johnfe ,49, Windsor ,46 Toronto ,55, Kitchener ,51, B e l l e v i l l e ,48 Sherbrooke .56*, London ,51 Moncton .73*, Vancouver .66*, St, Johns ,56, Windsor .54 Calgary ,93*, Moose Jaw ,88*, Edmonton .87*, Saskatoon .83*, H a l i f a x ,75*. St, John ,73*, Sarnia ,72*, Vancouver .46, Winnipeg ,46 Sydney ,97*, Chicoutimi ,95*, Saulte Ste, Marie ,92*, Kingston ,58*, Welland .58, Hamilton .53 Ha l i f a x ,83*, Calgary .79*, Regina ,73*, Edmonton .67*. Moose Jaw .66*, F t , William/ Pt, Arthur ,64*, Saskatoon .61*, Sarnia ,55, Windsor .50, Winnipeg ,49, Vancouver ,49, Moncton .47, St, John's .46, St, Catharines ,45 Calgary ,88*, Edmonton .83*, Lethbridge .78*, Moose Jaw ,77*, Regina ,73*, St. John's .71*, H a l i f a x ,68*, St. John ,61*, Winnipeg ,58*, Vancouver ,57*, Sarnia ,45 Lethbridge ,80*, Saskatoon ,71*, Moncton .70*. V i c t o r i a ,56, Calgary .51, Hal i f a x .49, Winnipeg ,48, St, John ,46, Edmonton .46 St., John .64*, St, Catharines .56, Ottawa ,52

27

TABLE I ( C o n t i n u e d )

S t . C a t h a r i n e s 4 W i n d s o r . 7 2 * , P t . A r t h u r / F t . W i l l i a m . 5 5 , M o n c t o n . 4 9 , S t . J o h n ,45

S h e r b r o o k e 3 B r a n t f o r d , 6 6 * , K i t c h e n e r . 5 6 * ,

W e l l a n d .47

Oshawa 2 W i n d s o r . 5 9 * , M o n c t o n .52

B r a n t f o r d 2 S h e r b r o o k e . 6 6 * , T o r o n t o .50

K i n g s t o n 7 W e l l a n d . 6 3 * , Sudbury . 5 8 * , Sydney . 5 8 * , C h i c o u t i m i . 5 7 * , S a u l t e S t e , M a r i e , 5 3 , T r o i s R i v i e r e s , 4 7 , S h a w i n i g a n .45

T r o i s R i v i e r e s 2 C o r n w a l l . 7 3 * , K i n g s t o n .47

S a r n i a 7 Edmonton . 7 9 * . R e g i n a . 7 2 * , C a l g a r y . 7 2 * , Moose Jaw . 7 0 * , H a l i f a x . 6 2 * , S t . J o h n . 5 5 , S a s k a t o o n .45

P e t e r b o r o u g h 1 B e l l e v i l l e . 7 0 *

M o n c t o n 9 Windsor , 7 7 * , V i c t o r i a . 7 3 * . S t . J o h n s , 7 0 * , H a l i f a x . 5 7 * , L e t h b r i d g e . 5 5 , Oshawa . 5 2 , S t , C a t h a r i n e s . 4 9 , S t . J o h n . 4 7 , W i n n i p e g .46

C o r n w a l l 2 T r o i s R i v i e r e s . 7 3 * , S h a w i n i g a n . 6 1 *

S a u l t e S t e . M a r i e 6 C h i c o u t i m i . 9 2 * . Sudbury . 9 2 * , Sydney , 9 1 * , W e l l a n d . 5 7 * , K i n g s t o n , 5 3 , H a m i l t o n .45

G u e l p h 1 B e l l e v i l l e .67*

W e l l a n d 7 H a m i l t o n , 7 0 * , Sydney . 6 5 * , K i n g s t o n , 6 3 * . Sudbury . 5 8 * , S a u l t e S t e . M a r i e . 5 7 * , C h i c o u t i m i . 5 2 , S h e r b r o o k e .47

L e t h b r i d g e 6 S a s k a t o o n . 7 8 * , S t . John's . 7 0 * , Moncton , 5 5 , C a l g a r y . 5 3 , W i n n i p e g . 5 0 , Ottawa ,46

28

TABLE I (Continued)

Sydney 6 Sudbury ,97*, Chicoutimi ,93*, Saulte S t e , Marie ,92*, Welland ,65*, Hamilton ,58*, Kingston ,58*

Moose Jaw 9 Regina ,88*, Calgary .84*, Edmonton ,83*, Halifax .82*, Saskatoon .77*, Sarnia .70*, St. John ,66*, Winnipeg .52, Vancouver ,47

Shawinigan 2 Cornwall ,61*, Kingston ,45

Chicoutimi 6 Sudbury ,94*. Sydney .93*, Saulte Ste, Marie .92*, Kingston ,57*. Welland .52, Hamilton ,45

Granby 0 B e l l e v i l l e 4 Peterborough ,70*, Guelph .67*,

Toronto ,55, London ,48

r - .444 at 95% Confidence Level *r • .561 at 99% Confidence Level

29

TABLE II

BASIC PAIRS AND SETS

Set No.

Set Type

C i t i e s

I I

I I I

IV

V I

V I I

V I I I

Saskatoon -*- l e t h b r i d g e «- St. John's

Winnipeg L

+

Edmonton • | CALGARY «•+ REGINA

Sarnia IA

H a l i f a x «- St . John «- P t . A r t h u r / F t . W i l l i a m «- Ottawa

SUDBURY SYDNEY C h i c o u t i m i + S a u l t e Ste. — I M a r i e

Oshawa St. i a t h a r i n e s - ^ WINDSOR MONCTON

HAMILTON-f-v WELLAND

-^-Victoria -> Vancouver

••-Kingston

CORNWALL <- •TROIS RIVIERES K i t c h e n e r

SHERBROOKE +• BRANTFORD

MONTREAL-^QUEBEC

London •>

Toronto-* BELLEVILLE-* -^PETERBOROUGH

SET TYPE A - N o n - s p e c i a l i z e d p e r i p h e r a l (the c i t i e s have between 2 to 4 r e g i o n a l r e s o u r c e based i n d u s t r i e s ) .

B - S p e c i a l i z e d p e r i p h e r a l ( " f r o n t i e r i n d u s t r i a l c i t i e s " , s p e c i a l i z i n g i n one o r two metal r e f i n i n g i n d u s t r i e s ) .

C » S p e c i a l i z e d h e a r t l a n d and p e r i p h e r a l c i t i e s ( e s p e c i a l l y i n t r a n s p o r t equipment).

D • S p e c i a l i z e d h e a r t l a n d (the c i t i e s have a unique s p e c i a l i z a t i o n i n s e v e r a l n o n - r e g i o n a l r e s o u r c e based i n d u s t r i e s ) .

E • D i v e r s i f i e d h e a r t l a n d (the c i t i e s have more than the a v e r age n a t i o n a l employment i n seven or more i n d u s t r i e s ) .

30

corresponds to Maxwell's i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of "periphery" c i t i e s . These

c i t i e s are characterized by l o c a l and regional resource based industr ies

and may be thought of as non-special ized rather than d i v e r s i f i e d i n

thei r manufacturing p r o f i l e . The l a t t e r d i s t i n c t i o n avoids the objec

tions that most of the group do not exhibit a range of manufacturing

a c t i v i t i e s (as, for example, do the large metropolitan centers of

Montreal and Toronto), Graph 1 i l l u s t r a t e s the p r o f i l e of the c i t i e s

at the center of th is set . It i s i n effect the histogram of the two

sets of untransformed observations f o r Calgary and Regina,

A second peripheral set (II) i s formed around the Sudbury and

Sydney basic p a i r . C i t i e s i n th is set are characterized by concentra

t i o n of employment i n metal r e f i n i n g and primary metal products, and

corresponds to the two groups which King i d e n t i f i e d as " f r o n t i e r indus

t r i a l c i t i e s " (see Chapter I I ) .

The remaining sets (III to VIII) generally indicate a s p e c i a l i z a

tion-uniqueness pattern, and are consistent i n function and loca t ion with

Maxwell'B " i n d u s t r i a l heart land" . There are three funct ional types of

c i t y i n these remaining sets , each characterized by a d i s t i n c t i v e specia l

i z a t i o n i n one or two non-resource based i n d u s t r i e s . The manufacturing

p r o f i l e s of the c i t y groups vary considerably (see Graphs 3 to 8). The

Bellevil le-Peterborough (VIII) and Quebec-Montreal (VII) sets apparently

Ottawa i s the only inconsistency here. Maxwell considers Ottawa to be i n the "heartland" group of c i t i e s . In th is thesis i t i s included i n the "periphery" group aB i t seems to share the loca t ional character is t i c s of this group. From now on this basic Canadian urban dichotomy i s termed "heartland" and " p e r i p h e r a l " , following the d e f i n i t i o n of these areas used by Maxwell, with the exception noted.

GRAPH 1 : TYPE A CALGARY - REGINA

Calgary Regina J]

10.05

5.64

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 91011 12 13 U 15 16 17 18 19 20

GRAPH 3 : TYPE C WINDSOR - MONCTON

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

10.5

Horizontal axis : 1 Food and Beverage 2 Tobacco 3 Rubber 4 Leather 5 Textiles 6 Knitting 7 Clothing 8 Wood 9 Furniture

10 Paper 11 Printing 12 Primary Metals 13 Metal Fabrication 14 Machinery 15 Transportation

Equipment 16 Electrical Products 17 Non-Metallic

Minerals 18 Petroleum 19 Chemicals 20 Miscellaneous

Vertical axis refers to Location Quotients

GRAPH 2 : TYPE B SUDBURY -

SYDNEY

Sydney Qgj Sudbury j j

P « --1W i l 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 U 15 16 17 18 19 20

4.0

GRAPH 4 : TYPE D

ran

HAMILTON - WELLAND

Hamilton | ]

Welland Uj

I. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 12 13 H 15 16 17 18 19 20

GRAPH 5 : TYPE D CORNWALL - TROIS-RIVIERES

Cornwall \M Trois Rivieres [TJ

• l j j i u l j l r i r

GRAPH 6 : TYPE D SHERBROOKE - BRANTFORD

Sherbrooke Brentford HO

I I 2 3 < 5 6 7 10 11 t2 13 K 15 16 17 18 19 20

GRAPH 7 : TYPE E MONTREAL - QUEBEC

Montreal

an Quebec

1 .0 Horizontal axis :

1 Food and Beverage 2 Tobacco , 3 Rubber ° - s l 4 Leather 5 Textiles 6 Knitting 7 Clothing 8 Wood 9 Furniture

10 Paper 11 Printing 12 Primary Metals 13 Metal Fabrication U Machinery 15 Transportation

Equipment 16 Electrical Products 17 Non-Metallic

Minerals 18 Petroleum 19 Chemicals 20 Miscellaneous

Vertical axis refers to Location Quotients

1 2 3 4 5 10 11 12 13 U 15 16 17 18 19 20

GRAPH 8 : TYPE E BELLEVILLE - PETERBOROUGH

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1& 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 K 15 16 17 18 19 20

GC.I

33

have a wider range of a c t i v i t i e s than the other heartland sets , and

are thus seen as variants of the manufacturing c i t y type "E" ( d i v e r s i

f i e d heartland c i t i e s ) , High concentrations of employment i n one

a c t i v i t y ( e l e c t r i c a l equipment for the former, and tobacco i n the l a t t e r

case), helps cause the s i g n i f i c a n t correlat ions that d i f f e r e n t i a t e them.

Several anomalies can be seen at th is l e v e l of analys is . Sarnia

i s grouped with the peripheral c i t i e s , although i t s o v e r a l l manufacturing

p r o f i l e i s of the specia l ized Industr ia l type, charac ter is t i c of the

heartland. This i s e n t i r e l y due to i t s heavy concentration of employment

i n petroleum r e f i n i n g and chemical i n d u s t r i e s , conditions which are also

found i n the peripheral p r a i r i e c i t i e s , where the industry i s generally

l o c a l resource based. However, the peripheral c i t i e s are a c t u a l l y much

less special ized than Sarnia. Thus, the l a t t e r should be more properly

included i n the heartland. The Windsor-Moncton based set provides

another anomaly but one readi ly explained by analysis of the relevant

manufacturing employment data. This set i s formed of c i t i e s which seem

to belong to both periphery and heartland. Their " s i m i l a r i t y " i s due

to the high concentration of employment i n transportation equipment. In

the case of Windsor, Oshawa and St. Catharine's this i s automobile

manufacturing, i n Moncton railway stock and V i c t o r i a , s h i p - b u i l d i n g .

The automobile industry i s a specia l ized non-resource based a c t i v i t y ,

t y p i c a l of the heartland, while railway stock f a b r i c a t i o n and s h i p - b u i l d

ing are more ubiquitous i n their general locations i n the sense that they

are found i n both periphery and heartland.

34

By manipulating the same corre la t ion matrix data another way, i t

can be seen that p-c lusters confirm the heartland-periphery contrast of

c i t y structure i n Canada, expecial ly when the anomalies are taken into

9

consideration,

Figure 2 i l l u s t r a t e s the pattern of the resource based non-

s p e c i a l i s t peripheral c i t i e s . On the map a l i n e l i n k s each c i t y with

the c i t i e s i t i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y " l i k e " ; peripheral c i t i e s are seen to

have quite a l o t i n common, either d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y (through

other c i t i e s ) . These s i m i l a r i t i e s are national as much as regional

( i . e . , with distant peripheral c i t i e s as w e l l as close ones) but the

mutual s i m i l a r i t i e s among p r a i r i e c i t i e s should be noted, A few more

points can be added here. These c i t i e s tend to be Isolated and many

serve as p r o v i n c i a l and regional centers. In addi t ion , Ottawa serves

as federal c a p i t a l . The " f r o n t i e r Indust r ia l c i t i e s " , however, are a

d i s t i n c t sub-group. P-c luster ing l i n k s them i n th is context with the

Hamilton-Welland set , due to a high corre la t ion caused by high r e l a t i v e

employment i n primary metal and metal f a b r i c a t i o n . This corre la t ion

disguises the nature of the l o c a t i o n a l factors a f fec t ing the involved

indust r ies , which are e n t i r e l y d i s s i m i l a r . For example, Sudbury and

Hamilton are s i g n i f i c a n t l y s imilar due to a high concentration of t o t a l

equipment i n the primary metal category. The underlying loca t ional

factors are, however, greatly d i s s i m i l a r . In the case of Sudbury

P-c luster ing i s done for (selected) l i n k s at the 99% confidence l e v e l only. Lowering the C L , to 95% (or lower) increases the complexi t y of the maps without adding any heuristic•advantages,

36

employment i s concentrated almost e n t i r e l y i n the n i c k e l and copper

r e f i n e r i e s which are based on l o c a l deposits , Hamilton, on the other

hand, has, amongst other industries such as rubber and tobacco, a high

concentration of employment i n the i r o n and s t e e l industry which i s not

based on l o c a l resources.

The other sets i d e n t i f i e d i n bonding analysis (heartland groups)

tend to remain discreet with p-c lus ter ing a n a l y s i s , due to the greater

v a r i a t i o n In the p r o f i l e s of the c i t i e s involved (see Figure 3). The

c i t i e s are, i n comparison to the peripheral c i t i e s , non- isola ted . These

heartland c i t y sets show several interes t ing funct ional charac ter is t i cs

when examined c l o s e l y .

The sparci ty of linkage between and within the "heartland" sets

of c i t i e s , cannot be interpreted as showing no s i m i l a r i t y i n respect of

the general type of Industry found i n the heartland. Rather i t reveals

the unique pattern of s p e c i a l i z a t i o n of small sets of c i t i e s within a

broader group of Industries having s imilar l o c a t i o n a l requirements.

Thus a group comprising Hamilton, Welland and Kingston specia l izes i n

the primary metal category and their locat ion along the Great Lakes/St .

Lawrence waterway Implies s imilar loca t ional needs ( v i z . , cheap transport

and h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y ) . Other sets of "heartland" c i t i e s with s imilar

l o c a t i o n a l character is t ics but di f ferent specia l izat ions between sets

are: Windsor, St. Catharines and Oshawa (transport equipment); Cornwall,

Trois Rivieres and Shawinigan (pulp and paper, t e x t i l e s and chemicals);

and Sarnia (petroleum, and chemicals).

38

Another .set of heartland c i t i e s , containing Kitchener, Guelph,

B e l l e v i l l e , Sherbrooke, Peterborough and Brantford, i s characterized

by a range i n the l i g h t e r type of industry, each c i t y having more than

the average n a t i o n a l employment i n three or mere of the fol l o w i n g i n

d u s t r i e s : food and beverages, tobacco, rubber, leather, t e x t i l e s ,

k n i t t i n g , c l o t h i n g , machinery, e l e c t r i c a l products and miscellaneous

i n d u s t r i e s . Because of the v a r i a t i o n i n s p e c i a l i z a t i o n , each c i t y i n

t h i s group has few l i n k s with the others. The c i t i e s of Granby, London,

Quebec, Montreal and Toronto are not linked to t h i s set, although they

are characterized by a s i m i l a r wide range of the l i g h t e r type of industry.

This i s due to the much wider range of i n d u s t r i e s found i n these l a t t e r

c i t i e s (each c i t y having more than the average n a t i o n a l employment i n

seven or more of the above mentioned categories). Many of these l a t t e r

c i t i e s act as p r o v i n c i a l and regional centers, which may, p a r t l y ,

explain t h e i r greater d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n of industry.

The impression given above of an i n t r i c a t e d i v i s i o n of labour

among c i t i e s i n a r e l a t i v e l y confined area o f f e r s support f o r the " d i s -

persed-city" hypothesis, i n which a group of c i t i e s " . . . although

separated by t r a c t s of a g r i c u l t u r a l land, function together economically

as a s i n g l e urban u n i t , " ^ This " u n i t " i d e n t i f i e d as Southern Ontario

by Burton, contains I n d u s t r i a l plants with market areas that equal that

of a si n g l e and larger metropolis. Location of such i n d u s t r i e s outside

I , Burton, "A Restatement of the Dispersed C i t y Hypothesis," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 53 (1963), p. 285.

39

the larger metropolises a l l e v i a t e s the diseconomies due to agglomeration,

while maintaining the b e n e f i t s of proximity to the larger centers.

Links between heartland and peripheral c i t i e s are shown i n Figure

4, These l i n k s have already been explained i n terms of (I) coarseness

of the data; (2) the lack of d i s t i n c t i o n i n function between the

" f r o n t i e r I n d u s t r i a l c i t i e s " s p e c i a l i z i n g In primary metal production

based on l o c a l resources and those c i t i e s i n the heartland s p e c i a l i z i n g

i n the same industry category but whose raw materials are "imported",^

The l i n k s between heartland and peripheral c i t i e s were not drawn on the

maps (Figures 2 and 3, pp. 35 and 37), as i t was f e l t they did not

contribute to the explanations of manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s , except i n

a negative way.

I t might be expected that c i t y s i z e i s somehow connected with

patterns of c i t y s i m i l a r i t y so f a r i d e n t i f i e d . However, i t i s impossible

from t h i s analysis to gauge the e f f e c t s of s i z e on manufacturing s t r u c

ture, to any degree of accuracy. T h e o r e t i c a l l y , small c i t i e s are

supposed to have l e s s d i v e r s i f i e d manufacturing p r o f i l e s , but t h i s i s

not c l e a r l y evident from the analysis so f a r i n terms of c i t y s i m i l a r

i t i e s . Table I I I summarizes the " d i s t i n c t i v e " and "dominant" manufactur

ing functions of the c i t i e s . A " d i s t i n c t i v e " industry has a l o c a t i o n

quotient of more than 1.10 ( i . e . , j u s t above the average i n comparison

with the national figure) and a "dominant" industry i s one with a quotient

n S e e page 33 for d e t a i l s of the f i r s t argument and page 34 for the second.

.S

J. /

CHICOUTIMI* 'SYDNEY

^.MONCTON^

'HALIFAX

SAULTE

, MARIE . S U b B U R Y - . . ^ /

'KINGSTON

'HAMILTON

> WELLAND 290 rH i - H E C l M I L E S

G.C. O

41

TABLE III

SUMMARY OF DIVERSIFICATION AND SPECIALIZATION OF INDUSTRY IN LARGER CANADIAN CITIES

-Population C i t y

L . Q . more than 1.10

L . Q . morel than 1.50

S p e c i a l i z a t i o n Index

2,000,000 Montreal 9 3 15 2,000,000 Toronto 8 4 16

750,000 Vancouver 6 2 33

500,000 Winnipeg 7 4 22 Ottawa 5 3 40 Hamilton 7 4 37 Quebec 8 2 25 Edmonton 7 3 32 Calgary 5 4 36

250,000 Windsor 2 2 48 250,000 Hal i fax 4 4 45 London 8 6 30 Kitchener 7 6 32 V i c t o r i a 4 3 45 Regina 5 5 41 Sudbury 1 1 58

100,000 St. John 7 6 42 100,000 Saskatoon 4 4 50 St. John's 3 2 43 Pt . A r t h u r / F t . Will iam 2 2 52 St . Catharines 4 3 48 Sherbrooke 5 3 44 Oshawa 4 2 61 Brantford 4 4 39 Kingston 2 2 51 Trois Rivieres 4 3 46 Sarnia 3 3 59

50,000 Peterborough 4 3 41 Moncton 3 3 48 Cornwall 3 2 66 Saulte Ste. Marie 2 1 75 Guelph 6 5 36 Welland 3 3 59 Lethbridge 3 2 11 Sydney 2 1 66 Moose Jaw 4 2 49 Shawinigan 5 5 58 Chicoutimi 1 1 57 Granby 7 4 52

L B e l l e v i l l e 6 4 37 Location quotient more than 1.10 = D i s t i n c t i v e Industry Location quotient more than 1.50 = Dominant Industry

42

of more than 1,50 ( i . e . , a half as much again i n comparison with the

national t o t a l ) , A l l c i t i e s have at least one dominant manufacturing

function, with most having more than one. This aspect of c i t y manu

facturing structure does not seem related to size. However, a simple

ratio of dominant to distinctive industries does appear related to size.

Large c i t i e s tend to have more distinctive functions and, consequently,

a higher proportion of distinctive functions to dominant ones, than do

smaller or medium sized c i t i e s . These tendencies are given support by

the specialization index which indicated that larger c i t i e s are less 12

specialized than smaller ones.

Summary

Analysis of the correlation coefficients between the 40 c i t i e s reveals eight classes of c i t i e s and five associated patterns of manufacturing a c t i v i t y , i.e., five types of c i t i e s similar i n manufacturing structure. The f i r s t two types can be designated as dimensions of peripheral c i t i e s , the next three index c i t i e s of the "heartland" of Canada. Cities of the f i r s t type are typically medium to large size and isolated. Manufacturing industry i s based on local and regional resources and the pr o f i l e i s non-specialized rather than diversified, suggesting the development of industry to meet regional and local rather than national needs. The second cit y type i s composed of typically

The Specialization Index was obtained by summing the positive or negative differences i n employment from the average for the 40 c i t i e s . It i s thus a measure of deviation from the average manufacturing p r o f i l e and ranges from 0 to 100.

43

small to medium sized isola ted c i t i e s with highly spec ia l ized industry

based on l o c a l meta l l i c resources. The f i n a l three types of c i t y can

be thought of as part of an interconnected group, which i s quite complex.

A l l c i t i e s i n i t spec ia l ize i n one or more manufacturing a c t i v i t i e s , and

thei r p r o f i l e s tend to be unique. Industry i s not generally based on

l o c a l or regional resources but i n part may be dependent on c i t y s i z e .

The larger Metropolitan areas In this o v e r a l l group tend to be more

d i v e r s i f i e d than the smaller and medium-sized c i t i e s . The c i t i e s are

non- isola ted , with some acting as regional centres and p r o v i n c i a l c a p i t a l s .

There i s some evidence to suggest that many of the c i t i e s function as part

of a regional ly " d i s p e r s e d - c i t y " .

These f indings are consistent with exis t ing empirical evidence of

Canadian urban manufacturing structure and behavior. The work of Maxwell,

King and Burton has already been mentioned and their relevance to th is

thesis evaluated.

The f indings are also not inconsistent with loca t ion theory. In

d u s t r i a l locat ion theory has not, u n t i l recently , examined the r e l a t i o n -13

ship of primary and secondary manufacturing to the settlement hierarchy, 14

and i n fact the market-oriented networks established by C h r i s t a l l e r and

15 Lb'sch i n their respective models of central places and market areas,

13 F. Ian Hamilton, "Models of Industr ia l Location" i n Models i n

Geography, eds, R. Chorley and P. Haggett, (London, 1967), Chap. 10. 14

W, C h r i s t a l l e r , Central Places i n Southern Germany, trans. C. W. Baskin, (New Jersey, 1966).

15 A. Losch, The Economics of Location, (New Haven, 1954).

44

are not applicable when primary and secondary manufacturing i s i n t r o

duced into the settlement hierarchy. The presence of sporadical ly

d is t r ibuted manufacturing industr ies (the majority of manufacturing

industr ies) weakens the conformity of the C h r i s t a l l e r - L o s c h systems to

r e a l i t y , though rank-size i s not excluded as an important way of ordering

the d i s t r i b u t i o n of manufacturing industr ies throughout the hierarchy.

In pract ice other factors modify th is pattern i n a c a p i t a l i s t economy and

this i s the impression we get from our a n a l y s i s . For example, manufactur

ing industry can be attracted either to the s i t e of the raw materials

(where the materials are bulky or perishable) or to urban places (where

market advantages and agglomeration economies e x i s t ) , depending upon the

s p e c i f i c economies or advantages the entrepreneur i s seeking. The l a t t e r

loca t ion can be further modified by the "sharing" of industr ies by

smaller c i t i e s around the larger metropolis (the " d i s p e r s e d - c i t y " ) .

F i n a l l y , a c i t y ' s manufacturing s p e c i a l i z a t i o n can influence the develop

ment of i t s neighbors, by encouraging the growth of a s imi lar type of

industry , or a general economic development which can resul t i n new

manufacturing industr ies being established.

This chapter has described s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the Canadian urban manu

facturing system. The system can be described i n terms of a center-

periphery model, modified by a "dispersed c i t y " operating i n the center

and by some regional specia l izat ions i n the periphery. The next chapter

w i l l i s o l a t e and expand on some of these notions and attempt to explain

the i d e n t i f i e d i n t e r - c i t y manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s i n Canada.

CHAPTER IV

ANALYSIS OF INTER-CITY SIMILARITIES IN MANUFACTURING STRUCTURE

The Canadian inter-urban manufacturing structure i s a composite

resul t of many p h y s i c a l , c u l t u r a l , h i s t o r i c a l and economic condit ions.

To understand their i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s completely would be impossible.

In order to proceed with the analys is , several prominent related factors

have been hypothesized as underlying c i t y manufacturing structure and

i n t e r - c i t y manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s , and an attempt i s made to assess

their r e l a t i v e s ignif icance by s t a t i s t i c a l techniques.

Hypotheses

Industr ia l locat ion theory would suggest that c i t i e s s imilar In

terms of s i z e , r e l a t i v e locat ion and h i s t o r i c a l development might be

expected to have a s i m i l a r manufacturing structure . A measure of

s i m i l a r i t y i n manufacturing structure i s provided by the product-moment

corre la t ion c o e f f i c i e n t between pairs of c i t i e s taken from the 40 x 40

i n t e r - c i t y corre la t ion matrix based on employment i n the cities." '"

V a r i a t i o n among these r - c o e f f i c i e n t s can hypothet ical ly be explained i n

part by v a r i a t i o n i n s i z e , r e l a t i v e locat ion and h i s t o r i c a l development

between the pair of c i t i e s which the r - c o e f f i c i e n t l i n k s . Thus the

r - c o e f f i c i e n t s form the dependent variable i n the following analysis .

Table I (page 25), l i s t s the s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t s i m i l a r i t i e s taken from the matrix. From now on correla t ion c o e f f i c i e n t s are referred to as r - c o e f f i c i e n t s .

46

Size

The size of c i t y , i n terms of i t s tot a l population, affects the

manufacturing structure, primarily by providing certain input and market

advantages. It could thus be hypothesised that c i t i e s of the same size

would have more similar manufacturing structures than c i t i e s of different

sizes. This notion, derived i n i t i a l l y from the work of LSsch and

Christal l e r , i s based on the connection between cit y size and fulfillment

of a succession of market thresholds. Pred has pointed to empirical

evidence for the United States of America which reveals that d i v e r s i f i -2

cation of manufacturing increases with growth i n ci t y population. He

also points out that this does not necessarily mean, . . , that similar-sized c i t i e s w i l l have identical manufacturing structures for no centers are l i k e l y to possess equivalent i n i t i a l advantages for the same industries . . ,3

however, size sim i l a r i t y might be associated with functional s i m i l a r i t y

to some degree. Market advantages are not the only result of size. Pred feels

that

. » . the locational attraction exerted by external agglomeration economies (or localization and urbanization economies) increases functionally rather than arithmetically.^

A, Pred, "Industrialization, I n i t i a l Advantage and American Metropolitan Growth." Geographical Review, 40 (1965), pp. 158-185.

3 l b i d . , p. 169. 4 I b i d , , p. 172,

47

Big c i t i e s or metropolises at t ract many non-market oriented industr ies

by these means, and as Pred points out an analysis of them Is " . . . a

key to disparate i n d u s t r i a l structures i n metropolises of nearly equal

s i z e . " 5

Preliminary analysis of the re la t ionship between s ize and

manufacturing structure i n Canada has been done on the basis of d i v e r

s i f i c a t i o n and s p e c i a l i z a t i o n In industry (see Table I I , page 29).

However, a clearer picture of the re la t ionship between s ize of c i t y

and manufacturing structure can be obtained by ca lcula t ing for c i t y

s ize classes the average indices of d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n ( L . Q . ' s greater

than 1.10) and s p e c i a l i z a t i o n ( spec ia l iza t ion index) and the average

number of s i g n i f i c a n t manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s ( s igni f i cant r - c o e f f i -

cients between each c i ty ) for each c lass . Table IV summarizes these

average values for s ix c i t y s ize classes . It indicates that the smaller

the c i t y , the less d i v e r s i f i e d and, conversely, the more specia l ized

i t s manufacturing structure becomes. Small c i t i e s also tend to have

a more unique manufacturing structure than big c i t i e s (they have fewer

s i g n i f i c a n t manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s compared to other c i t i e s ) a l

though this charac ter is t ic i s shared by the two large metropolises of

Montreal and Toronto. Size , then, can be expected to be related to

v a r i a t i o n i n the manufacturing structure between a pair of c i t i e s .

It i s s p e c i f i c a l l y hypothesized here that var iat ions i n the r - c o e f f i -

cient between c i t y pairs are inversely related to the variat ions i n

A. Pred, I b i d . , p. 173.

48

size between pairs of c i t i e s . In other words, as the city size

difference increases, the degree of simi l a r i t y of manufacturing decreases.

TABLE IV DIVERSIFICATION AND SPECIALIZATION IN CANADIAN URBAN

MANUFACTURING 1961 BY CITY SIZE CLASS

Size Class No. of Cities

Average # of L.Q.'s Over 1.10

Average S. I.

Average # of Significant Similarities

Over 1,000,000 2 8.5 15.5 2.0

500,000 - 1,000,000 1 6.0 33.0 7.0

250,000 500,000 6 6.5 32.0 6.7

150,000 250,000 7 4.7 42.7 6.0

100,000 150,000 11 3.8 48.6 5.8

50,000 100,000 13 3.7 53.5 4.5

Relative Location

The term relative location covers a multitude of factors concerned with the manufacturing process. These can be grouped for the purpose of this analysis into two factors which are directly related to the growth of manufacturing a c t i v i t y ; accessibility to the inputs of production and accessibility to markets for the outputs of this production. Perloff, et a l . , l i s t quantity and quality of a region's resources, a v a i l a b i l i t y of intermediate inputs and size of regional market and proximity (in terms of transport costs) to national markets as important considerations

49

i n explaining a city's a b i l i t y to attract a c t i v i t i e s of specified types. It i s unnecessary, given the scope of this analysis, to break down these general considerations into more specific location factors. Instead a number of general concepts and indicators of acces s i b i l i t y (relative location) were developed and tested i n this study.

Preliminary analysis has revealed that a "heartland-periphery" pattern characterizes Canadian manufacturing. Location i n either heartland or periphery i s reflected i n the manufacturing structure of a c i t y by the amount of specialization and type of industry. The heartland offers the greatest market potential i n Canada i n terms of size of regional and national markets, ̂ As a result both overall industrial d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n , but specific city specialization, would be expected i n this area. Location i n the heartland i s related to accessibility to regional and national markets, to a v a i l a b i l i t y of intermediate outputs and to agglomeration economies.

The periphery c i t i e s with smaller local markets would be expected to display less overall d i v e r s i f i c i a t i o n , with specialization largely confined to processing of local or regional raw materials. This contrasts with the predominance of fabricating industries and with the processing of minerals not l o c a l l y or regionally accessible, i n the heartland c i t i e s . This pattern i s evident on close analysis of the

H. S. Perloff, et a l , , Regions, Resources and Economic Growth, (Lincoln, Neb., 1960), p. 75.

7See Market Potential Index, 1961 i n D. Ray, op_. c i t . , Figure 1.

50

location quotients for the twenty industries for processing and

fabricating industries. Table V summarizes this analysis. Processing

i s , on the average, more prominent i n the periphery c i t i e s and f a b r i

cation i n the heartland. The c i t i e s of the latter have a greater range

of industries but tend to have a more unique manufacturing structure.

It can be hypothesized then that variations i n the r-coefficient

between any pair of c i t i e s i s directly related to s i m i l a r i t i e s i n

a c c e s s i b i l i t y , that i s to say, to similar location i n the heartland

or periphery for that pair of c i t i e s ,

In addition, quality and quantity of a region's resources play

an Important role i n influencing regional s i m i l a r i t i e s or differences

across Canada, Accessibility to forest and carboniferous resources

might be thought to be a significant factor i n explaining variation i n

the Canadian urban manufacturing structure. It was, therefore,

hypothesized that variation i n the r-coefficient for the c i t y pair

varies directly with similar accessibility to forest resources and

similar accessibility to carboniferous resources for the pair.

Historical Evolution

The h i s t o r i c a l evolution of manufacturing accounts for certain aspects of the present structure. It might be expected that c i t i e s of a similar age would be characterized by a similar manufacturing structure, since they were founded at a period characterized by the relative dominance of certain industries i n the national economy, although the amount of Industry might vary considerably, Pred uses the umbrella term

51

TABLE V PROCESSING, FABRICATING, DIVERSIFICATION AND

SPECIALIZATION OF THE HEARTLAND AND PERIPHERY: CANADA 1961

I Manufacturing Characteristic Cities of Heartland

Cities of Periphery

Number of Cities 22 18

Average L.Q. for Processing Industries 1.07 1.38

Average L.Q. for Fabricating Industries 1.83 .50

Average Number of L.Q.'s over 1.10 (Diversified) 5.20 3.90

Average Specialization Index 43.20 46.30

Average Number of Significant Similarities 3.10 8.20

52

' i n i t i a l advantage' . . .

to cover three overlapping ideas, that existing locations are usually characterized by tremendous i n e r t i a and a temporal compounding of advantages; that existing locations often exert considerable influence on plant-location decisions; and that once concentration i s i n i t i a t e d i t i s self-perpetuating.^

These forces sometimes result i n apparent contradictions of

theoretical patterns based on present size and relative location. The

age of the cit y may then offer some clue i n explaining variation to

the expected manufacturing structure. It i s , therefore, hypothesized

that variation i n the r-coefficient between any c i t y pair are inversely

related to the difference i n age between the pair of c i t i e s . In

other words, c i t i e s alike i n age are hypothetically alike also i n

manufacturing structure.

Data: Manufacturing Similarities

As described e a r l i e r , the pattern of manufacturing sim i l a r i t y

across Canada was established by computing correlation coefficients

for every pair of c i t i e s over 30,000, and applying bonding techniques 9

to isolate the dominant associations. The bonding pattern was drawn from the significant correlations at the 95% and 99% confidence levels and i t i s these values which form the dependent variable for the

A. Pred, op_, c i t , , p, 160, *See Chapter I I I .

53

analysis-. Two sets of observations are used, comprising the 108 r - c o

ef f i c i e n t s at the 95% confidence l e v e l and the 63 at the 99% l e v e l ,

Both sets of observations ( r - c o e f f i c i e n t s ) have been normalized by a

logarithmic transformation.

It i s f e l t that these observations constitute a more v a l i d array

for analysis than the complete population (or a sample of i t ) of

pos i t ive correlat ions from the 40 x 40 i n t e r c i t y cor re la t ion matrix. As

the number of o r i g i n a l observations ( i , e , , the 20 S . I . C , categories) i s

small , one or two very high locat ion quotients w i l l cause a high standard

deviation from the mean. While this does not i n t e r f e r e with the s t a t i s

t i c a l v a l i d i t y of the r - c o e f f i c i e n t s , i t makes them d i f f i c u l t to

interpret geographically. For example, Granby has no s i g n i f i c a n t

posi t ive correlat ions (or i n other words, i t has a unique manufacturing

s tructure) . This i s caused by two very high loca t ion quotients i n

tobacco and rubber i n d u s t r i e s , employment conditions which are not

shared by any other c i t y . However, i t could be s a i d , geographically

speaking, that Granby's manufacturing structure i s s imi lar to several

other c i t i e s i n terms of i t s low d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n of industry .

In order to minimize this problem, only the most s i g n i f i c a n t

correlat ions were selected, as they more c l e a r l y indicate general

s t ructural s i m i l a r i t i e s upon which to describe and analyze the manufactur

ing structure of Canadian c i t i e s . The observations used i n the comparison

of Canadian c i t i e s are thus to a certain extent a r b i t r a r i l y chosen, a l

though i t i s a s t a t i s t i c a l l y correct procedure. From this i t can be

See Table I, page 25,

54

pointed out that the following analysis i s of 'predominant c i t y manufac

turing s i m i l a r i t i e s , ' rather than an overall analysis of manufacturing

s i m i l a r i t y , " ^

Operational Definitions of Independent Variables

As the dependent variable i s a measure of association between two

c i t i e s , the values for a l l independent variables are taken for the same

pair of c i t i e s .

Size: The measure of size used i n testing the f i r s t hypothesis i s the

difference of total population i n thousands between the two c i t i e s i n 12

1961. This was found to be the best measure of size difference-sim i l a r i t y after experimentation with other versions of this variable. Relative Location:

Relative location, i n terms of location i n the heartland or

periphery and access to natural resources, i s d i f f i c u l t to quantify.

Dummy variables were used to overcome this d i f f i c u l t y and were defined

in the following manner:

11 A preliminary analysis revealed that a sample of 100 r - c o e f f i -

cients (city pairs), randomly drawn from the whole correlation matrix did not provide any significant relationships with the hypothesized variables. This j u s t i f i e s , empirically speaking, the use of the more significant r-coefficients or, i n other words, limiting the analysis to the 'predominant structural s i m i l a r i t i e s . '

12 Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Canadian Census 1961, (Ottawa 1965).

(a) the pair of c i t i e s take the value 1 i f both are located

i n the heartland, or both i n the periphery, and 0 i f they . 13 are not,

(b) The pair of c i t i e s take the value 1 i f both are accessible

resources and 0 i f they are not.

(c) The pair of c i t i e s take the value 1 i f both are accessible

to carboniferous resources and 0 i f they are not.

Accessibility to forest resources was defined as being within

50 miles of forested land and to carboniferous resources as being within

50 miles of a major o i l or coal producing f i e l d . ^

Other measures of relative location were included in preliminary

analysis but later excluded as they showed no relationship with the

dependent variables. These Included an e x p l i c i t measure of s i m i l a r i t y

i n accessibility to market potential and to transport systems and

'zoned' locations i n the periphery.

Historical Evolution: It i s f e l t that the date of ci t y incorporation offers an important

'benchmark' i n the economic development of Canadian c i t i e s . The measure of h i s t o r i c a l evolution used i n testing the last hypothesis i s the

See Chapter I I I for details of heartland and peripheral c i t i e s . The definition of heartland and periphery follows Maxwell (1965).

"^Forest and carboniferous resources are identified i n the Oxford Regional Economic Atlas U.S.A. and Canada, (Oxford 1967), pp. 76-77, pp. 92-93, and the distances are measured from the atlas.

difference i n years between the date of incorporation between the two ... 15 c i t i e s .

Tests of Hypotheses

Preliminary analysis was applied to test for the existence, nature and degree of the hypothesized relationships. Scatter plots of dependent against each independent variable did not reveal distinct linear relationships, A l l hypothesized variables are to some extent relevant i n the explanation of manufacturing s i m i l a r i t y , and i t i s l i k e l y that there are others. A logarithmic transformation of the c i t y incorporation differences reduced variance from the mean and thus produced a better ' f i t ' for this variable. Models 1 #1 and 1 #2 (page 57) show the relationship of logged r-coefficients to size difference, and to logged cit y incorporation difference: the relationship of the dependent variable to the 'dummy' independent variables cannot be shown sensibly on graphs and none are presented.

The five independent variables were subsequently treated simultaneously to determine the relationship between the r-coefficient and the hypothesized factors. To remove the p o s s i b i l i t y that one or more of the Independent variables are not significantly related with the dependent variable when variations i n the remaining variables have been

The dates of ci t y incorporation are taken from several editions of the Canada Year Book, (Ottawa), Chapter I I I , population.

Figure 5 Scatter Plots of Manufacturing Similarities

SCATTERPLOT OF R-COEFFIC1ENTS ON ALL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

LOG R-VALUES ON SIZE DIFFERENTIALS. MODEL 1 #1 .

SCATTERPLOT OF R-COEFFICIENTS ON ALL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

LOG R- VALUES ON LOG CITY INCORPORATION . MODEL 1 # 2 .

SCATTERPLOT OF R - COEFFICIENTS ON ALL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

LOG R-VALUES ON SIZE DIFFERENTIALS MODEL II * 1 .

SCATTERPLOT OF R- COEFFICIENTS ON ALL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

LOG R - VALUES ON LOG CITY INCORPORATION. MODEL II # 2.

J.

G.C.

considered, forward stepwise regression analysis was employed."1""

This procedure i s useful as i t identifies the amount of multi-

c o l l i n e a r i t y when i t i s suspected that the independent variables covary

It also gives some idea of the individual contribution of the so-called

independent factors to the total explanation, as well as providing a

cumulative explanation for a l l significant independent variables. The

regression models for the analysis are thus:

Log Y = a - b 1 + ^2 X2 + ^3*3 + ^4 X4 " ^5 "*"°§ x5 + e ±

Where Y i s taken as the logged significant r-coefficients from the

int e r c i t y

1 DFor details of i t s computation see J. H. Bjerring, et a l . , op. c i t . L. J , King gives a concise description of the forward stepwise regression procedure on pps. 145-146 of S t a t i s t i c a l Analysis i n Geography, (New Jersey, 1969):

This approach involves adding one independent variable at a time and generating a series of intermediate regression equations. The f i r s t independent variable considered i s the one which has the highest simple correlation with the dependent variable. The i n i t i a l two-variable regression i s completed, and then the pa r t i a l correlations between the dependent and a l l other independent variables are computed. The independent variable among these which has the highest p a r t i a l correlation, in other words, the one which contributes most to the unexplained variation in the dependent variable remaining after the f i r s t regression, i s then included i n the second step. A new regression equation now involving two independent variables i s derived; the p a r t i a l correlations are computed for the remaining variables with the two held constant; and the selection of the next variable to be included made on the basis of these values. At each step the adjusted p a r t i a l regression coefficients and multiple correlation coefficient also are obtained. The stepwise procedure continues u n t i l a l l the specified Independent variables are included.

59

correlation matrix

x^ i s taken as the size difference

x^ i s taken as location i n either heartland or periphery

x^ i s taken as accessibility to forest resources

x^ i s taken as access i b i l i t y to carboniferous resources

x^ i s taken as the logged c i t y incorporation difference

e i s an error term

Tables VI and VII summarize the multiple regression analysis for

both the 108 observation case (Model I) and the 63 observation case

(Model I I ) .

In Model I (Table VI) the five variables together account for nearly 40% of the variation in intercity manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s . A l l variables are highly significant and make varying contributions to the explanation. This total explanation i s increased to just over 50% in Model I I (Table VII, where the variables are again a l l significant, the f i r s t two being highly significant). Accessibility to forest resources accounts for 8.39% of the variation i n Model I and this explanation i s increased to 18,23% in Model I I , Similarily the explanation provided by the date of cit y incorporation i s increased from 14,75% to 17,50% i n Model I I , These two measures provide the most powerful explanatory variables i n both models and support two of the i n i t i a l hypotheses, that accessibility to natural resources and the influence of

60

TABLE-VI

MODEL I STEPWISE REGRESSION OF 108 OB&. AT 95% C. L . (Variables l i s t e d i n order of entry into model)

Variables Relationship Cumulative RSQ

Addi t ion to RSQ

Sy

Y with x 5 C i t y incorporation Inverse 14,75 14.75 0.0908

A c c e s s i b i l i t y to forest resources Direct 23,14 8.39* 0.0866

x^ Size Inverse 28,99 5,85* 0.0837

x^ Location i n heartland/ periphery Direct 34,63 5.65 0.0807

x^ A c c e s s i b i l i t y to carboniferous resources Direct 39,39 5,75* 0.0781

TOTAL 39,39 39.39

* S ignif icant at 99% C, L .

Log Y = -0.1597 - 0,0660 log x $ + 0,0706 x 3

-0,0001 X ; L + 0.0616 x 2 + 0,1315

61

TABLE VII

MODEL II STEPWISE REGRESSION OF 63 OBS. AT 95% C. L . (Variables l i s t e d i n order of entry into model)

Variables Relationship Cumulative RSQ

Addit ion to RSQ

Sy

Y with A c c e s s i b i l i t y to forest resources Direct 18.23 18.23* 0.0650

x 5 C i t y Incorporation Inverse 35.73 17.50* 0.0581

*2 Location i n heartland/ periphery Direct 41.59 5.86 0.0559

x^ A c c e s s i b i l i t y to carboniferous resources Direct 47.13 5.54 0.0536

x^ Size Inverse 50.65 3.52 0.0523

TOTAL 50.65 50.65

* S ignif icant at 99% C. L ,

Log Y = -0.1332 + 0.0750 x 3 - 0.0478 log x 5

+0.0583 x 2 + 0.0872 x 4 - 0.0001 x 1

62

h i s t o r i c a l factors can help i n explaining in t e r c i t y manufacturing

s i m i l a r i t i e s , The i n i t i a l hypotheses are also a l l supported by the

direction of the regression relationships of the remaining independent

variables, although their individual contribution to the t o t a l explan

ation i n either case Is not high. Except for a decrease i n the

explanatory power of size i n Model I I , the hypothesized independent

variables of size, location i n heartland or periphery, and ac c e s s i b i l i t y

to carboniferous resources add approximately 5%% each to the t o t a l 17

explanation. Before making any further geographical inferences,

analysis of the regression residuals may suggest additional explanatory

variables, or the inadequacy of the existing ones. Analysis of Residuals:

Analysis of residuals by conventional mapping techniques i s d i f f i c u l t , as the residual value i s always a measure between a pair of c i t i e s . Tables VIII and IX summarize the unexplained variance i n the models by breaking down the residuals into quartiles. Evaluation of these shows that the unexplained variance i s distributed f a i r l y evenly, and there i s l i t t l e marked deviation from the average relationship. Furthermore, the even distribution of positive and negative residuals (in other words, under prediction and over prediction of the average relationship) do not indicate any serious inconsistency i n the model. These points would suggest that the hypothesized independent variables

The increase in total explanation i n Model II should be noted as i t suggests that the use of the more significant correlations, or observations, permits a more powerful explanation (see footnote 11, p. 54).

63

TABLE V I I

RESIDUALS FROM MODEL I IN QUARTILES

Class (S,D,) P o s i t i v e Negative Total No. of Class (S,D,) Residuals Residuals Observations

0,00 - ,25 8 14 22 .26 - .50 13 10 23 .51 - ,75 12 10 22 ,76 - 1,00 13 7 20

1,01 - 1,25 3 6 9 1.26 - 1,50 4 5 9 1,51 - 1.75 1 2 3

TOTAL 54 54 108

TABLE IX

RESIDUALS FROM MODEL I I IN QUARTILES

I Class (S.D,) P o s i t i v e Negative T o t a l No. of Residuals Residuals Observations

0,00 - ,25 8 10 18 .26 - .50 7 4 11 ,51 - .75 8 6 14 . 7 6 - 1 . 0 0 1 6 7

1.01 - 1,25 4 4 8 1,26 - 1.50 2 3 5 1,51 - 1.75 0 0 0

TOTAL 30 33 63

64

are realiable i n that they consistently 'explain' variation i n the

dependent variable, even though the total level of explanation i s not

high.

It has been suggested earlier that the hypothesized independent variables are not the only factors i n explaining manufacturing similari t i e s across Canada. Several other factors could be hypothesized which should 'explain' part of the residual for each observation. These factors w i l l be discussed later. It would be expected that the addition of such 'new' variables would increase the total explanation.

Analysis of the more marked deviation from the average relationship (in this case residuals of over one standard deviation) suggests, f i r s t l y , weakness in the measurement of existing independent variables. The under-predicted pairings (the positive residuals) are probably due to the coarseness of the access i b i l i t y measure. Access to carboniferous resources was taken to mean location within 50 miles of a major producing coal or o i l f i e l d . This distance excluded Regina, Moose Jaw and Saskatoon from being considered accessible to carboniferous resources. Clearly i n the Canadian context these c i t i e s are accessible to petroleum. The d i f f i c u l t y here was that any distance greater than 50 miles would include many southern Ontario c i t i e s which are technically accessible to the o i l producing f i e l d around Sarnia but are not actually on o i l pipelines. Those c i t i e s are thus not 'accessible' to petroleum i n the way the Prairie c i t i e s are. It i s only by using a more sophisticated measure of accessibility (perhaps such as derived from graph theory) that this problem can be eliminated.

Tables X and XI l i s t the marked deviations i n terms of c i t y

pairs, Apart from the weakness just mentioned, i t i s , i n fact, not

easy to spot additional explanations for the residuals. The over-

predicted pairings (the negative residuals) do suggest that some measure

of provincial or regional capitals may provide a p a r t i a l explanation.

This i s partly a reflection of the higher location quotients i n the

printing and publishing S,I,C. category i n such towns that are associated

with a provincial capital, or large university or regional capital

function.

Qualifications to a Geographical Analysis:

Further analysis of the regression models i s necessary i n order to validate their geographical implications. This can be partly done by evaluation of the correlation coefficients between the hypothesized independent variables. Tables XII and XIII show the correlation half-matrix for the 'independent' variables for Models I and I I respectively. It can be seen that c i t y incorporation i s not correlated to any degree with the other variables. Location i n the heartland or periphery i s somewhat correlated with size and with accessibility to forest and carboniferous resources (although not significantly) i n Model I, In Model II relative location i s significantly correlated with accessibility to carboniferous resources.

These multiple correlations mean that i t i s impossible to ascribe with any precision the exact amount of geographical 'explanation' that these variables add to the total explanation. This could be expected;

66

TABLE X

SIGNIFICANT RESIDUALS FROM MODEL I (OVER X.SJD.)

City Pair Type of Residual

Calgary - Halifax Positive

Calgary - Regina Positive

Calgary - St. John Positive

Calgary - Saskatoon Positive

Calgary - Moose Jaw Positive

Halifax - Regina Positive

Halifax - Moose Jaw Positive

Sudbury - Sydney Positive

Vancouver - Regina Negative

Winnipeg - Regina Negative

Winnipeg - St, John's Negative

Winnipeg - Moncton Negative

Edmonton - St. John's Negative

Calgary - St. John's Negative London - B e l l e v i l l e Negative

Victoria - St. John Negative

St, John - St, John's Negative

Saskatoon - Sarnia Negative Sherbrooke - Welland Negative

Kingston - Trois Rivieres Negative

Kingston - Shawinigan Negative [

67

TABLE XI SIGNIFICANT RESIDUALS FROM MODEL I I (OVER l.S.D.)

City Pair Type of Residual

Calgary - Halifax Positive

Calgary - Regina Positive

Calgary - St. John Positive

Calgary - Saskatoon Positive

Calgary - Sarnia Positive

Halifax - Moose Jaw Positive

Winnipeg - Halifax Negative

Halifax - Moncton Negative

Kitchener - Sherbrooke Negative

St. John - Port Arthur/Fort William Negative

Sherbrooke - Brantford Negative

Saulte Ste. Marie - Welland Negative

Guelph - B e l l e v i l l e Negative

68

TABLE XII

CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES IN MODEL I

Variable Mean SD X l x 2 X 3 X4

x 5

X l 220.0 346,2 1,000

x 2 0.7222 ,4500 0.1748 1,000

x 3 0.1204 ,3269 -0.0648 0.1659 1.000

X 4 0,0278 ,1651 -0,0236 -0.1468 - .0625 1.000

x5 1,380 ,5178 -0,0457 -0.1551 0.0515 -0.0740 1.000

Signif i cant r = ,195 at 95% C L .

Signif icant r - .254 at 99% C L .

TABLE XIII

CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES IN MODEL II

Variable Mean SD x l X 2 X 3 x 4

x 5

x l 128.5 144.7 1.000

x 2 0.7937 0,4079 0.0866 1.000

x 3 0.1429 0.3527 0.0575 0.2082 1.000

x 4 0.0476 0,2147 0,0678 -0.2543 -0.0913 1.000

x 5 1.290 0,5685 0.0509 -0.0410 0.0007 - ,0538 1.000

Signif icant r = .250 at 95% C L ,

Signif icant r =* .325 at 99% C L .

69

for example, the heartland/periphery concept i s partly derived from the 'accessibility to natural resources,' which characterizes the periphery. Thus there are essentially two overlapping measures of ac c e s s i b i l i t y i n the models, However, i t has been pointed out above that location i n the heartland or periphery has many other influences upon manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s , which are not measured by accessibility to natural resources. It i s thus important to try to separate out these two aspects of relative location.

Forward stepwise regression to some extent clears up this problem by eliminating part of the variance due to a particular variable at each step. However, much depends on the choice of variables to include a step-model and the strategy of variable entry into the model. In this analysis 'free entry' was allowed, but the choice of the most s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g nificant variable to start the regression model does not necessarily make the most geographical sense. For this analysis i t probably would be more val i d to specify the order of entry of variables and to calculate the regression s t a t i s t i c s with the specific a c c e s s i b i l i t y measures preceding the location to heartland or periphery measure. This procedure would, thus, put the more simple geographical concept, v i z . , accessibili t y to natural resources, ahead of the more complex one, v i z . , location i n the heartland or periphery. However, this s t i l l does not necessarily make geographical sense, although i t helps to eliminate the p o s s i b i l i t y of one variable explaining more than i t should. Accessibility to forest resources enters before location i n the heartland or periphery in Model I and after i t in Model I I , with accessibility to carboniferous

resources coming after the location measure i n both models. For this reason, i t i s impossible to ascribe more than an approximate value to the influence of these variables on c i t y functional s i m i l a r i t y . The problem w i l l remain u n t i l location i n the heartland or periphery and areas i n resources etc., can be operationalized i n alternate and non-overlapping ways.

Another problem concerns the correlation of the five hypothesized independent variables with similar or different explanatory measures not e x p l i c i t l y considered. It i s impossible to test what the independent variable may actually measure, i n addition to what they hypothetically measure. Some investigation of this problem has been attempted for the accessibility measures, where, in addition to the e x p l i c i t l y tested variables, a c c e s s i b i l i t y to metallic resources and to s a l t water was correlated also. It was found that accessibility to forest resources

was significantly correlated with accessibility to metallic resources 18

and to salt water. The hypothesized variable of a c c e s s i b i l i t y to forest resources thus reflects more than the influence of such resources upon the r-coefficient. To some extent, accessibility to mineral resources and/or salt water i s surreptitiously included, and could be explaining part of the variation in the r-coefficients explained by accessibility to forest resources. As the correlation coefficients are

The correlation coefficients between accessibility to forest resources and metallic resources and salt water were computed at 0.2613 and 0,5062 respectively for Model I and 0,311 and 0.4518 respectively for Model I I ,

71

not high, the amount of explanation the former could add may be

insignificant»

Summary

The two regression models provide a p a r t i a l explanation for

observed s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the Canadian urban manufacturing system. The

relationship between inter-urban manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s and the

hypothesized influences of size, relative location and h i s t o r i c a l

evolution i s not a simple linear function, and consequently multiple

regression techniques and transformed data were employed to describe i t .

The to t a l variance reduction, while not high, offered a consistent

p a r t i a l explanation for s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the manufacturing structure of

Canadian c i t i e s . The most important factors affecting c i t y s i m i l a r i t y

appeared to be accessibility to natural resources and h i s t o r i c a l

advantages; other factors of location and size were less important but

were related to inter-city manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the expected

manner. The concluding chapter w i l l point to several ways i n which a

higher level of explanation could be attained.

CHAPTER V

CONCLUSIONS

The overall purpose of the investigation was to provide new

insights into the Canadian urban system, through analysis of economic

a c t i v i t i e s at the inter-urban scale. This has been p a r t i a l l y achieved

by limiting investigation to the analysis of manufacturing industries

of the forty-one Canadian c i t i e s of over 30,000 i n 1961. It i s possible

to replicate this investigation for a wider range of economic a c t i v i t i e s .

This thesis then, offers a methodological contribution to the analysis

of urban systems as well as a substantive contribution to Canadian

urban economic geography. In methodological terms, this investigation contains elements

of the traditional classification-oriented and economic base approaches to urban economic functional analysis. It i s suggested that the approach taken here, through the urban system, provides a more productive analysis of inter-urban economic functions, The purpose of the correlation and bonding techniques employed i n Chapter I I I was to establish a valid and reliable structure of manufacturing similari t i e s upon which to base further analysis. The grouping of c i t i e s which was consequently established can only be viewed i n terms of the purpose of this further analysis. This analysis i s limited to the investigation of the relationships between the predominant manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s and various locational factors. Forward stepwise regression was considered an appropriate s t a t i s t i c a l procedure for the purpose of investigating these relationships.

73

The foregoing statements point to the consciously l i m i t e d scope

of the i n v e s t i g a t i o n . Other s t a t i s t i c a l techniques, such as facto r

analysis and mu l t i p l e discriminant a n a l y s i s , could provide more or other

i n s i g h t s into the structure of urban manufacturing i n Canada, One major

weakness i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s the d i f f i c u l t y i n i n t e r p r e t i n g the

40 x 40 I n t e r - c i t y c o r r e l a t i o n matrix. This matrix summarizes a l l

i n t e r - c i t y manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s but the d i f f i c u l t y of i n t e r p r e t i n g

the low (non-significant) c o r r e l a t i o n s has been pointed out.

I t was found that the s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s were

more r e a d i l y interpreted, and that the s t r u c t u r a l associations of

manufacturing which were derived from them agreed with other empirical

f i n d i n g s . Manufacturing at the inter-urban l e v e l i n Canada can be

thought of In center-periphery terms. The i n v e s t i g a t i o n revealed the

existence of eight classes or sets and f i v e d i s t i n c t types of urban

manufacturing centres. Four of these types (A, B, D and E) are re l a t e d

to l o c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s , and the remaining one (C) i s ' s t a t i s t i c a l ' , i , e . ,

i s caused by grouping a l l employment i n transportation equipment i n the

same labor force category of the Canadian Census, Two of these types of

manufacturing centres (A and B) are termed 'peripheral', the others (part

of a complex group of s e t s ) , are termed 'Heartland', Most of the

peripheral c i t i e s (type A) are characterized by possession of a s i m i l a r

range of regional resource based i n d u s t r i e s , but a group of f r o n t i e r

i n d u s t r i a l c i t i e s (of type B) s p e c i a l i z i n g only i n primary metal production

See Table I I , page 29,

i s also diseemable. Heartland c i t i e s either have a f a i r l y diversified

industrial structure (type E) or specialize i n a few non-regional

resource based industries (types C and D), It i s these heartland c i t i e s

that form the 'group of sets' of c i t i e s similar i n industrial character,

but different i n details of their industrial mix. Table XIV, for

example, indicates that the number of significant correlations i s

weighted towards the periphery c i t i e s . This i s because the periphery

c i t i e s have, i n s t a t i s t i c a l terms, a more similar manufacturing 'mix'

than that of the heartland c i t i e s , In geographical terms, however,

many of the heartland c i t i e s have a similar manufacturing character

( i . e . , they are specialized i n two or three different industry cate

gories) but their specialization makes them individually unique i n

functional terms. Consequently the product-moment correlation co

efficients are usually non-significant and such cit y pairs are not

included i n the later analysis, This basis weakness i n the dependent variable must be kept i n

mind i n interpreting this study although i t does not invalidate the explanation of the 'observed' manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s . Thus, i n the comparative part of the study i t was found that location to natural resources and the influence of h i s t o r i c a l factors, such as i n i t i a l

advantage and i n e r t i a , were the chief factors of those considered found 2

associated with inter-city manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s .

See Tables VI and VII, pps, 60, 61,

75

TABLE XIV

RATIO OF POSSIBLE TO ACTUAL SIMILARITIES (SIGNIFICANT CORRELATIONS) IN THE

HEARTLAND AND PERIPHERY

No. of C i t i e s

Possible S i m i l a r i t i e s

No, of S i g n i f i cant S i m i l a r i t i e s at

95%

Approx, Ratio

No, of S i g n i f i cant S i m i l a r i t i e s at

99%

Approx, Ratio

S i m i l a r i t i e s between:

C i t i e s of Heartland 22 231 18 13:1 9 26:1

C i t i e s of Periphery 18 153 60 3:1 41 4:1

C i t i e s of Heartland and Periphery 396 30 13:1 13 30:1

TOTAL: 40 780 108 7:1 63 12:1

A higher level of explanation for i n t e r - c i t y s i m i l a r i t i e s could

be attained i n two ways, F i r s t , the coarseness of the original data,

especially i n the transportation equipment category, caused an i n i t i a l

l imitation on the potential explanation. The definition and measurement

of several of the independent variables (the measures of relative

location) was also crude and s i m i l a r i l y detracted from the potential 3

explanation. Improvement i n these data should result i n an increased level of explanation. Second, i t was stated at the beginning of the analysis of i n t e r - c i t y manufacturing s i m i l a r i t i e s (Chapter IV) that an understanding of the tot a l relationship of manufacturing industry to geographical conditions would be impossible. Several factors were ignored at that stage, which would probably add to the general explanation, although at what level the writer i s not sure. The reason for their exclusion was the d i f f i c u l t y of obtaining accurate data on them. These factors would include 'the economic shadow effect', a v a i l a b i l i t y of sites, labor and capital and government influence. 4 It i s premature to suggest that the achievement of a very high level of explanation i s possible. There i s much evidence to show that the location of industry i s not a simple matter, even though the several factors mentioned above may play a large role in influencing the location decision and thus the similarity of c i t i e s that are the focus of manufacturing a c t i v i t i e s .

For comments on these data problems see pages 33 and 69. D. Ray, i n The Spatial Structure of Regional Development and

Cultural Differences - A Factorial Ecology, 1968, considers economic shadow and a v a i l a b i l i t y of energy as two important factors i n influencing the location of manufacturing ac t i v i t y across Canada,

77

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Maxwell, J . "The Functional Structure of Canadian C i t i e s , A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of C i t i e s , " Geographical B u l l e t i n , 17, (1965), p, 95,

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Roterus, V, and W, Calef, "Notes on the Basic-Nonbasic Employment Ratio," Economic Geography, V o l , 31 (1955), pp, 17-20,

8 0

Slater, D, "Trends i n Industrial Location in Canada," Resources for Tomorrow.. Vol-. 1 ( 1 9 6 1 ) , pp, 4 0 9 - U 7 ,

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TABLE OF LOCATION QUOTIENTS

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s

Toba

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Prod

ucts

Ru

bber

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dust

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Le

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dust

ries

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ries

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Mills

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od

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itur

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Printing.Pub

lishing

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Ind.

Primary

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Tran

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ment

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Non-metallic

Mineral

Prod

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L 3 co CD +J rH O O 3 H r + O

4J <do CD O M

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Prod

ucts

Miscellan

eous

0.79 3.18 0.58 1.53 0.97 1.39 2.47 0.16 1.14 0.41 1.00 0.53 1.07 0.66 1.18 1.29 0.98 1.47 1.18 1.01 0.80 0.36 1.47 0.72 0.50 0.80 1.08 0.17 1.13 0.63 1.81 0.38 1.39 1.86 0.73 1.68 0.89 0.68 1.35 2.18 1.28 0.03 0.20 0.21 0.33 0.39 0.45 3.56 1.40 0.90 1.36 0.46 1.23 0.76 0.62 0.39 0.59 1.67 0.45 0.72 1.43 0.03 0.05 0.58 0.37 0.44 2.13 0.31 1.85 0.50 1.56 0.32 1.22 0.82 1.58 0.48 0.90 1.44 0.53 0.76 1.25 0.13 0.07 0.54 0.13 0.32 0.39 0.57 0.52 3.26 2.73 0.25 0.72 0.58 0.08 0.78 1.26 0.15 0.79 2.10 0.58 1.38 1.93 0.31 0.64 0.53 0.24 0.15 0.26 0.37 0.53 4.18 1.48 2.45 0.63 1.86 1.46 0.29 0.72 0.65 1.04 5.55 1.07 4.97 1.26 0.21 1.45 0.35 0.74 1.14 1.28 0.10 0.67 0.24 1.25 0.33 0.97 0.13 1.21 0.87 1.94 0.03 0.12 0.16 0.10 0.04 1.00 0.75 1.35 0.29 1.23 0.70 1.44 0.46 0.48 0.11 1.40 5.28 1.84 0.66 2.02 0.02 0.49 0.19 0.22 0.05 0.24 0.57 0.93 0.34 1.94 0.34 1.38 0.68 0.83 0.26 2.12 5.64 0.90 0.77 0.88 0.04 0.14 0.02 0.12 0.01 0.21 0.12 0.25 0.04 0.67 0.29 1.78 0.91 6.21 0.12 0.37 0.09 0.66 0.72 2.09 0.02 0.10 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.22 0.23 0.21 0.23 1.88 0.05 0.55 0.13 2.99 0.91 0.99 5.51 0.54 0.59 1.52 0.08 2.23 1.66 0.08 2.67 0.35 0.24 0.38 0.72 1.51 0.36 1.21 1.37 0.54 2.82 0.52 0.13 0.75 0.74 1.03 0.09 8.05 4.18 1.96 0.90 0.78 0.31 2.44 0.11 0.42 0.30 1.67 1.47 0.22 1.53 0.36 0.05 0.27 0.93 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.04 0.14 4.04 0.49 0.17 2.16 0.07 0.42 0.13 2.90 0.09 0.49 0.12 0.85 0.63 1.97 0.07 0.25 0.05 0.13 0.02 0.40 0.32 0.43 0.42 2.19 1.09 1.38 0.43 0.23 0.18 2.18 10.05 0.47 0.70 0.85 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.13 0.59 0.17 0.09 0.75 10.01 0.52 0.15 0.04 0.08 0.62 0.23 0.61 0.29 1.60 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.51 0.19 1.60 0.99 0.26 1.60 0.18 2.47 0.06 1.40 3.81 0.50 1.51 3.43 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.24 0.04 0.36 0.48 0.73 0.12 2.10 0.09 0.94 0.61 0.04 0.15 1.58 2.71 0.37 0.75 3.13 0.00 0.03 0.05 1.14 0.13 0.36 0.58 0.32 0.21 1.97 0.30 0.76 0.55 0.78 0.02 0.50 0.46 0.74 0.85 0.44 0.01 0.22 0.11 0.33 1.35 0.12 0.16 0.21 1.96 0.40 0.25 2.13 0.55 4.75 0.71 0.53 0.05 0.33 0.94 0.75 0.22 3.03 1.33 7.14 3.87 0.83 0.23 0.42 0.42 0.90 0.53 0.80 3.12 0.03 0.10 0.24 0.14 0.28 1.05 0.13 0.00 0.89 2.97 0.16 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.48 0.08 0.70 1.23 0.45 0.08 7.55 0.13 1.40 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.62 0.07 0.91 0.31 2.44 1.96 0.37 0.06 0.36 0.78 0.47 0.19 0.80 8.31 0.69 0.77 0.83 0.04 1.05 2.03 0.54 0.04 0.03 0.80 5.75 0.03 0.07 0.21 0.48 0.09 0.85 5.44 0.30 0.10 0.90 0.19 1.09 0.09 0.86 0.27 0.46 0.08 0.03 0.42 4.06 1.06 1.24 0.45 0.36 4.25 0.54 1.80 0.48 0.13 0.03 0.98 0.63 0.14 0.23 0.25 0.22 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.14 0.00 0.47 0.45 0.77 0.07 0.61 0.03 1.62 23.24 9.07 0.13 0.94 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.93 0.11 0.07 0.25 0.16 0.50 0.55 0.02 0.20 1.30 1.90 6.35 0.97 0.11 0.14 1.83

Port Arthur/Fort William 0.89 0.05 0.01 0.04 0.31 0.01 0.08 0.67 0.33 6.35 0.91 0.05 0.52 0.21 2.04 0.04 0.62 0.89 0.21 0.21 2.23 0.00 0.24 0.05 0.53 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.41 0.19 1.76 0.20 0.65 0.08 3.98 0.15 0.44 0.09 0.59 0.06 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.01 7.90 0.01 0.75 0.03 0.13 4.44 0.37 0.10 0.24 0.06 0.15 0.06 0.35 0.05 2.29 0.49 0.23 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.89 0.07 1.13 0.40 11.57 0.37 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.17 0.06 0.59 0.50 0.31 0.71 2.44 1.67 1.82 0.12 0.39 0.14 0.57 1.22 1.51 0.70 0.07 4.52 0.94 0.03 0.44 0.70 0.29 0.03 3.48 0.12 3.02 0.87 0.14 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.26 8.16 1.81 0.91 0.11 0.68 0.26 0.01 0.91 0.06 3.79 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.51 0.15 0.36 0.57 0.01 1.88 0.03 1.19 0.44 0.36 0.25 1.21 0.22 0.15 0.81 0.61 0.00 0.17 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.21 0.06 0.04 0.55 11.31 1.14 0.02 0.14 0.01 0.19 0.19 0.29 0.07 2.90 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.33 0.00 1.11 0.66 0.18 0.02 1.34 0.26 0.24 0.30 0.74 0.02 0.90 13.52 0.39 0.18 0.25 0.04 0.02 0.65 1.75 0.41 0.87 0.29 0.18 1.59 0.21 1.69 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.67 1.63 0.06 8.75 0.14 0.93 0.08 0.07 0.57 0.01 0.11 0.25 0.30 0.43 0.58 0.88 9.67 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.06 0.63 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.61 14.23 8.90 0.04 6.33 1.35 0.63 0.14 0.56 0.10 0.46 0.03 1.12 0.07 0.03 2.52 0.12 0.10 0.20 1.11 1.11 0.00 0.12 0.36 0.36 0.82 0.72 0.32 0.20 0.04 0.55 0.55 1.14 1.84 0.09 5.22 2.12 0.11 0.80 1.67

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