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:%&7&]"87(’"(]’O ,NO ’6&"(&/O 3(’"7(WE"(,0O,NO &00E&/O STUVSO &03O <=>SO 78N/8]"OA&7(&"(,0’O ,NO 3&(/5O 7&(0N&//O (0O 3(NN8780"O&78&’O (0O :%(0&BO =&’"O :%(0&O (’O ]/,’8O ",O"%8OU&](N(]Og)8;0BOS228)"83Oh5O+,0’,,0ROF;"87O A;6,7O (’O ;hE03;0"O (0O "%8O ;(7O ;03O;(7O +;’’O /(2"’O E6O ’%;76/5O F("%O),0A87D80)8O (0O ’E++87BO i;(/5O678](6(";"(,0O (0"80’("5O ]%;0D8’O D78;"/5BOj;7(;"(,0O ],822(](80"O ;03O ’";03;73O38A(;"(,0O ,2O 3;(/5O 678](6(";"(,0O ;78O h,"%O%(D%87O (0O +E]%O ,2O =;’"O :%(0;BO >%E’O;00E;/O STUVSO (’O /,F87O ;03O ;00E;/O<=S>O (’O %(D%87O "%;0O ,"%87O 6/;]8’BO g0O"%8O],0"7;75RO;00E;/OSTUVSO(’O%(D%87O;03O<=>SO(’O/,F87O(0O^,7"%O:%(0;B!"# $%&’()* +, -.%/(-(’0’(+) &(1230’(+)<;’83O ,0O "%8O YXk5.;7O 3;(/5O ’(+E/;"(,0O 67.](6(";"(,0O ;"O Zl\O ’";"(,0’O ;03O "%.(7O 3;(/5O ,W’.7A.3O7.],73’O27,+OImlIO",O\XXXRO67.](6(";"(,0O’(+E/;"(,0OF;’O ".’".3OW5O’(nO’";"(’"(]OA;7(;h/8’O (0]/E3(0DO;00E;/O 678](6(";"(,0oO+,0"%/5O 67.](6(";"(,0RO 5.;7/5O %.;A5O 7;(05O 3;5O H;O %.;A5O 7;(0O (’O 3.2(0.3O "%;"O3;(/5O 67.](6(";"(,0O (’O %(D%.7O "%;0O ,7O .eE;/O ",O \fO ++JRO +,0"%/5O 7;(05O 3;5RO +,0"%/5O ;A.7;D.O67.](6(";"(,0O6.7O7;(05O3;5O;03O+,0"%/5O+;n(+E+O67.](6(";"(,0BOC(DE7.OIIO’%,F’O "%.O],+6;7(’,0O,2O ’(+E/;"(,0O ;03O ,W’.7A;"(,0BO[.O ];0O ’..O "%;"O 3;(/5O 67.](6(";"(,0O ’(+E/;"(,0O (’O A.75O ’E]].’’2E/RO.’6.](;//5O2,7O;00E;/O67.](6(";"(,0RO+,0"%/5O67.](6(";"(,0RO+,0"%/5O;A.7;D.O7;(05O3;5O;03O+,0"%/5O;A.7;D.O 67.](6(";"(,0O 6.7O 7;(05O 3;5BO <E"O 2,7O +,0"%/5O +;n(+E+O 67.](6(";"(,0O ;03O 5.;7/5O %.;A5O7;(05O3;5RO "%.O ’(+E/;"(,0O 7.’E/"’O ;7.O /,F.7O "%;0O "%,’.O,2O ,W’.7A;"(,0’BO<.];E’.O "%.O,]]E77.0].O,2O’E]%O ;0O .n"7.+.O A;/E.O (’O A.75O 7;7.O ;03O "%.O %(’",7(]O 7.],73’O ;7.O 0,"O ’,O /,0DRO ("O (’O 3(22(]E/"O ",O 2("O";(/O ,2O bSddSO 3(’"7(WE"(,0O 2E0]"(,0O F("%O ,W’.7A.3O 7.],73’RO F%(]%O (’O ;/’,O /(p8/5O 3E8O ",O "%8O,h’87A83O3;";O],0";(0(0DO+;05O687(,3’O (0OF%(]%O ’E]]8’’(A8OA;/E8’O;78O%(D%/5O],778/;"83ROF%878;’O"%8O’50"%8"(]O3;";OA;75O+,78O7;03,+/5OH_8+80,AO!" #$BROImmfJB

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5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

BE

TA


r\Y

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3)405067"(’7048% 9):50’6")*% 20)*7-% $;% -"67$5":% 50:$546% <"22% "(=5$>0% 7-0% ’::35’:?% $;% =’5’(07056+%<-":-% (’?% "(=5$>0% 7-0% 6"(32’7"$)8% @7% 7-0% 6’(0% 7"(0+% "):50’6")*% $;% 7-0% 6"(32’7"$)% 20)*7-% ’)4%)3(A05%$;%7"(06%(’?%’26$%20’4%7$%"(=5$>04%=05;$5(’):0%$;%7-0%=50:"="7’7"$)%6"(32’7"$)8

BCD% E)% 7-0% 60’6$)’2% A’6"6+% 7-050% "6% ’% *50’7% 4";;050):0% <"7-% 50*’54% 7$% 60’6$)’2% >’5"’7"$)% $;%($)7-2?% F GHHD% ’)4% F GH1D% A07<00)% I$57-% ’)4% J$37-% /-")’8% K0)05’22?% ($)7-2?% F GH1D% ")%)$57-05)%/-")’% 6-$<6%’%4"67"):7">0% 60’6$)’2% :?:20%<"7-%-"*-%>’2306% ")% 63((05%’)4% 2$<%>’2306% ")%<")705% ’)4% 6=5")*8%E)% 7-0% $7-05% -’)4+% ")%($67% =’576% $;% 6$37-05)%/-")’%($)7-2?% FGH1D% :-’)*06%2066% 7-’)% 7-’7% $;% )$57-05)% /-")’8% F0’L% >’230% ")% 6$37-05)% /-")’% 0(05*06% 0’52"05% 7-’)% 7-’7% $;%)$57-05)%/-")’%430% 7$%0’52"05%’55">’2%$;% 7-0%($)6$$)8% 97% "6%’26$% 7530% 7-’7%($)7-2?%FGHHD% ")%($67%=’576% $;% )$57-05)% /-")’% :-’)*04%($50% *50’72?% 7-’)% 7-’7% ")% 6$37-05)% /-")’8% 9)% I$57-<067% /-")’+%($)7-2?%FGHHD%"6%-"*-05% ")%<")705%’)4%63((05%A37% 2$<05% ")%6=5")*%’)4%’373()8%9)%I$57-%/-")’%’)4%I$57-0’67%/-")’+%($)7-2?%FGHHD%"6%-"*-05%")%63((05%A37%2$<05%")%<")705%’)4%6=5")*8

GMD% 9)% 705(6% $;% 6=’7"’2% 4"675"A37"$)% $;% ’))3’2% FGHHD% ’)4% FGH1D+% "7% "6% 067’A2"6-04% 7-’7% A$7-%’))3’2%FGH1D%’)4%FGHHD%’50%-"*-05% ")%6$37-05)%/-")’% 7-’)% 7-$60% ")%)$57-05)%/-")’8%N6=0:"’22?O")%($67% =’576% $;%P")Q"’)*+% )$57-% $;%K’)63+%<067% $;% R"A07+% )$57-% $;%.")*-’"% ’)4%S")*T"’+%<067% $;%9))05%U$)*$2"’+%("4420% 6$37-% $;%V0A0"+% ’))3’2% W GH1D% "6% 2$<05%7-’)% X8C8% 9)% ($67% =’576% $;%K3"Y-$3% ’)4% /-$)*Z")*+% 0’67% $;%[":-3’)+% <067% $;% V3A0"+% 0’67% $;%\"2")+% ’))3’2% W GH1D% ’50%502’7">02?% -"*-+% <"7-% >’2306%A07<00)% X8]% ’)4% X8^8O 9)O 0’67O $;OP")Q"’)*+O <067O $;O K’)63+O )$57-O$;O _")*-’"+O )$57-<067O $;O 9))05OU$)*$2"’+O ’))3’2O F GHHDO ’50OA07<00)O X8MO ’)4O X8]8O 9)O <067O $;O&3))’)+O 6$37-0’67O $;O ‘"A07+O)$57-<067O $;O K3"Y-$3O ’)4O =’57O$;O :0)75’2O J":-3’)+O ’))3’2O WGHHDO ’50O 502’7">02?O -"*-+O5’)*")*O;5$(OX8aO7$OX8b8

G]DO ‘-0O 4’"2?O )$)Y05$O=50:"="7’7"$)6O ")O /-")’O :’)O A0O6’7"6;’:7$5"2?O 406:5"A04O <"7-O ’OK’((’O 4"675"A37"$)O $)O 7-0O60’6$)’2O ’)4O ’))3’2O A’6"6+O’27-$3*-O 7-0O 7<$O =’5’(07056O@cFV@O ’)4O dN‘@O $;O 7-0OK’((’O 4"675"A37"$)O >’5?O40=0)4")*O $)O 60’6$)8O ‘-0O($)7-2?O @cFV@O :-’)*06O ($50O*50’72?O ")OS$57-O/-")’O 7-’)O 7-’7O")O J$37-O /-")’8O U$)7-2?O@cFV@O "6O -"*-05O ")O <")705O ’)4O6=5")*O A37O 2$<05O ")O 63((05O ’22O$>05O /-")’8O /$(=’504O <"7-O)$57-0’6705)O ’)4O )$57-<06705)O=’576O $;O /-")’+O 7-0O ($)7-2?OdN‘@O ")O 7-0O 5067O $;O 7-0O :$3)75?O-’6O ’O 2’5*05O >’5"’A"2"7?8O ‘-0O

e"*350ObOOJ=’7"’2O4"675"A37"$)O$;O@cFV@O40705(")04OA?O4’"2?O=50:"="7’7"$)O4’7’O;5$(OfbgfO7$OCXXXO")O/-")’O

e"*350OfXOOJ=’7"’2O4"675"A37"$)O$;OdN‘@O40705(")04OA?O4’"2?O=50:"="7’7"$)O4’7’O;5$(OfbgfO7$OCXXXO")O/-")’O

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IJK*>L8* "A#*6;7;M8"87’*GNODGP&03*<=>G*,Q* "%8*R&++&*3(’"7(SB"(,0*&/’,*E&75* Q7,+*78@(,0*",* 78@(,0C* T0* +,’"* 6&7"’* ,Q* :%(0&F* GNODG* (’* S8"A880* UCV9 ;039 UCWC9 GNODG9 (09 X.’"9 :%(0;9 (’9%(@%.79 "%;09 "%;"9 (09 =;’"9 :%(0;C9 :,+6;7.39 A("%9 GNODGF9 <=>G9 %;’9 ;9 7./;"(E./59 /;[email protected] ’6;"(;/9E;7(;"(,09 ;Y7,’’9 3(QQ8780"9 6;7"’9 ,Q9 :%(0;C9 >%8789 (’9 ;9 18087;/9 (0Y78;’(019 "78039 Q7,+9 0,7"%A8’"9 ",9’,B"%8;’"C

Z(1B789 [[99 \";"(’"(Y;/9 Y,+6;7(’,09 ,Q9 3;(/59 678Y(6(";"(,09 A("%9 VU]58&79 ’(+B/&"(,09 &039 ,S’87E&"(,093B7(0@9[^_[P;03P‘UUUP(0P:%(0;

y = 1.0004x

R� = 0.9968

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Observed annual p recip itation (mm)

Sim

ulat

ed a

nnua

l pre

cipi

tati

on (

mm

) y = 0.9991x

R� = 0.989

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Observed monthly p recip itation (mm)

Sim

ulat

ed m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

ion

(mm

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y = 0.9995x

R� = 0.9869

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Observed monthly average precip itation per rainy day (mm)

sim

ulat

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I’% F"’$*6’)*+% S-0)% e6$<6"+% YccYE% i"56’2% C<$*<’((")*% 5:$D-’5:"D% A0’:-0<% *0)0<’:$<% ’)7% ":5% ’CC2"D’:"$)% :$%0D$2$*"D’2%5:67?%")%=6:6<0E%9:"83/", 01’":2$/2’, 9"3":,+%h[]NY^V%Q_hXNQ_ZE%]")%/-")050^

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5D0)’<"$5E%&$"@</": &.<318+%h[V%hO_XQNQES0(0)$9% I% W+% L<$$45% a% M+% L’<<$A% R% I% 8/ <$E+% NOOZE% /$(C’<"5$)% $=% :-0% U‘RB% ’)7% dWaSXU‘% 5:$D-’5:"D%

A0’:-0<%*0)0<’:$<5%=$<%7"90<50%D2"(’:05E%&$"@</8 +8*8<’:.+%NcV%O[XNc_ES0(0)$9%I% W+% L<$$45% a% M+% NOOOE% SC’:"’2% "):0<C$2’:"$)% $=% :-0% dWaSXU‘% 5:$D-’5:"D% A0’:-0<% *0)0<’:$<% ")% ‘<0’:%

L<":’")E%&$"@</8 +8*8<’:.+%NNV%Nh_XNQZES0(0)$9% I% W+% ;$<:0<% M% a+% NOO[E% /2"(’:"D% 9’<"’8"2":?% ’)7% :-0% ($7022")*% $=% D<$C% ?"0275E% 01’":2$/2’<$ <3A B(’8*/

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Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China

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