Economic Comission forLatin America and the Caribbean

JOSÉ LUIS MACHINEA

Executive Secretary

ALICIA BÁRCENA

Deputy Executive Secretary

NUMBER 83

AUGUST 2004

SANTIAGO, CHILE

OSCAR ALTIMIRDirector

REYNALDO BAJRAJDeputy Director

CEPALeconomic

commission for

latin america

and

the caribbean

Review

S U M M A R Y

Beyond economics:interactions between politics

Fernando Henrique Cardoso

heories about a necessary link between authoritarianism and

progress have been discredited by history. Now democracy and

development are prominent (though not inseparable) values on nations’

agendas. The link between the two is not a given; it is established by

recognizing that democracy is justified in itself as a universal value that

can be accepted by all. Democracy legitimizes public policies because

it is based on deliberation and a negotiated trade-off of interests, under

transparent rules. Democratic procedures can be used to cope with

unexpected difficulties and strengthen the confidence of outsiders. The

way to deal with the asymmetrical effects of globalization is to participate

in the international economy on more advantageous terms, affirming the

ability of democracy to shape a form of development that is non-

exclusive, unlike that which we experienced in the past. This is no easy

task, and if people are not rewarded by a higher quality of life, then not

only will democracy be in jeopardy, but the economy will not prosper.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso

Former President of the Federal

Republic of Brazil

Less advanced sectorsin the Latin American

Susana Schkolnik and Juan Chackiel

emographic change in Latin America has been driven by the

behaviour of the middle and upper strata. Given that fertility and mortality

in these groups are now relatively low, future changes will mainly come

from the behaviour of less advanced sectors. This paper analyses the

contribution of these less advanced groups to the decline in fertility,

distinguishing between the “distribution effect” and the “rates effect”. In

less advanced sectors the desired number of children is lower than the

actual number, with early marriage and limited use of modern

contraceptives continuing to be the rule. Even so, these groups have

entered the demographic transition. A number of countries have recently

seen falls in their fertility rates due to the contribution of women with low

levels of education: in the late transition countries behaviour is

heterogeneous, while in the advanced transition countries the greatest

contribution is being made by women with primary education.

Susana Schkolnik

Officer in Charge, Demographic Area

Juan Chackiel

Consultant

CELADE-Population Division,

ECLAC

Urban segregation andpublic space: young people

Gonzalo A. Saraví

his article explores some of the changes currently occurring in

enclaves of structural poverty in Argentina. While many studies have

dealt with middle-class impoverishment, this study addresses the

growing geographical concentration and accumulation of social

disadvantages, something that has triggered a process of urban

segregation and threatens these enclaves with exclusion. Control of the

public space in such areas of structural poverty proves to be a

determining factor in many of the disadvantages suffered by these

communities: social isolation, internal fragmentation and depletion of

household asset portfolios. Setting out from an ethnographic analysis of

the way young people appropriate the public space and impose a “street

culture” with its own norms and practices, this paper explores the

dynamic complex of disadvantages that operates as an engine of

exclusion for these enclaves and their inhabitants.

Gonzalo A. Saraví

Research Professor

Centre for Research

and Higher Learning

in Social Anthropology (CIESAS)

Rural non-farm employmentand rural diversity in

Martine Dirven

n the 1990s, rural development specialists became increasingly

interested in rural non-farm employment (RNFE) and the factors

determining it. Ideas about the subject gradually made their way into the

political debate and some development programmes. Location is one of

the aspects mentioned in many studies as a factor influencing the

characteristics of RNFE. Some others include scale, type, generated

income and participating household members. This article looks at what

has been written on the subject and suggests that location, and the

various “distances” that go with it, are a vital determinant of RNFE.

Martine Dirven

Chief, Agricultural Development Unit,

Division of Production, Productivity and

Management,

ECLAC

Food security

Gustavo Gordillo de Anda

his paper stems from the debate on food security that has been

under way since the World Food Summit of 1996. It discusses the

viability of a type of programmatic proposal deriving from the Rome

Declaration and Plan of Action signed by the Governments of 148

countries, and it suggests that the implementation of the Plan of Action

requires the establishment of a structural link between the population

affected by food insecurity –usually unable to make its views known or

exert pressure– and the various authorities responsible for initiating

public action. The central hypothesis of this paper is that this structural

link can be centred upon family farmers. It argues that food security,

underpinned by the right to food, is a territorial expression of civic rights.

Gustavo Gordillo de Anda

Assistant Director-General of the

Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations (FAO),

Regional Representative for Latin

America and the Caribbean

Growth, competitiveness and

Norberto E. García

he growth of high-quality employment needed to reduce the

share of informal occupation and open unemployment in Peru will require

an acceleration and diversification of private investment in the tradable

sector. One of the main constraints faced is the uncompetitiveness of the

non-extractive tradable sector. In 1990-2003, competitiveness improved

in this sector essentially as a result of lower labour costs, a socially unjust

and economically ineffective route to follow. To raise competitiveness, it

is essential for the macroeconomic regime to include a competitive real

exchange rate (to which there are obstacles) and higher productivity at

the microeconomic level. This latter goal needs to be pursued through

microeconomic and mesoeconomic policies, the main obstacle being the

narrow outlook prevailing from the mid 1990s onward, which emphasized

the reduction of average labour costs as the main way to raise

competitiveness.Norberto E. García

Associate Researcher,

Peruvian Studies Institute (IEP),

and Research Leader,

Employment Policies Network of the

Economic and Social Research

Consortium (CIES),

Peru

The market and water

Eduardo Zegarra

his article examines the unsuccessful attempts made in the 1990s

to introduce a market for water in Peru. This reform was thwarted

because market operations were identified with water rights privatization,

even though a market can perfectly well operate on a basis other than

that of private rights, with the State retaining full ownership of the

resource. The argument made here is that if these shortcomings were

corrected, the creation of a water market would be desirable to improve

allocation and management of water and to deal with the increasingly

serious difficulties associated with the administration of water access, the

lack of investment incentives and serious problems of efficiency and

equity. The economic advantages and disadvantages of a water market

are analysed, as are the legal and regulatory prerequisites for promoting

the kind of market that would really improve water allocation in the

increasingly necessary institutional reform of this sector in Peru.

Eduardo Zegarra

Senior Researcher at the

Group for Analysis of Development

(GRADE),

Lima, Peru

The export performanceof Chilean firms:

Roberto Álvarez E.

lthough Chilean exports have performed well in recent decades,

they are still largely confined to a few products, a few markets and a

small number of firms. The present paper explores this last point,

discussing the export behaviour of companies. The main stylized facts

are as follows: only a small group of firms are capable of exporting on a

permanent basis, and these companies are much larger and have much

higher levels of productivity and human capital than the rest.

Roberto Álvarez E.

Department of Economics,

University of Chile

Measuring technologicalcapabilities in Mexican

Lilia Domínguez and Flor Brown

his paper is a methodological and analytical contribution to a line

of research whose objective is to construct representative indices of the

technological capabilities of Mexican manufacturing establishments. It

also examines the distribution of these capabilities in such establishments

and their association with performance variables in a sample of 1,818

firms. Factor analysis was used to identify four factors expressing the

main sources of learning in manufacturing industry: i) training policy,

ii) continuous improvement innovation, iii) information and documentation

systems, and iv) investment in new technologies. Grouping analysis was

used to identify four groups of establishments on the basis of points

scored per factor and to examine their performance indicators. There

was found to be a positive association between technological

capabilities and performance in three of the five indices: profit margins,

labour productivity and technical change.Lilia Domínguez

Flor Brown

Postgraduate Professors

at the Faculty of Economics,

Universidad Nacional Autónoma

de México (UNAM)

Basel II: developingcountries and portfolio

Stephany Griffith-Jones, Miguel Ángel Segoviano andStephen Spratt

The proposed new Basel Capital Accord aims to better align regulatory

capital with the risk that banks actually take on. This paper argues that

current proposals will inappropriately and significantly increase the cost

or reduce the quantity of bank lending to developing countries, as they

will make the requirements for lending to them far more stringent. The

failure of the Basel proposals to take account of the benefits of

international diversification implies that risk is overestimated at the

portfolio level. We show that, for a number of variables (such as bank

profitability) and for a number of periods, the degree of correlation

between developed economies is greater than that between developed

and developing countries. We also show via simulations that a portfolio

diversified across developed and developing economies has a lower

level of risk than one focused only on developed ones. We therefore urge

the Basel committee to explicitly incorporate the clear benefits of

international diversification.

Stephany Griffith-Jones

Professorial Fellow,

Institute of Development Studies,

University of Sussex.

ECLAC consultant

Miguel Ángel Segoviano

Doctoral candidate at the

London School of Economics

Stephen Spratt

Vice President,

Intelligence Capital

IDB lending to budget

Carlos Santiso

nternational financial institutions are showing a renewed interest in

measures to enhance national budget management and strengthen the

integrity of public finance in emerging economies. The role of national

parliaments and supreme audit institutions in the governance of the

budget and the accountability of public finances is being rediscovered.

To strengthen the contribution these institutions make to the budget

process, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is providing them

with multilateral loans whose potential remains unexplored and whose

effectiveness could be improved. Besides increasing technical capacity

and enhancing operational efficiency, second-stage reforms should

enhance the governance of public finance and fiscal control by ensuring

greater financial autonomy and political independence for supreme audit

institutions and promoting more efficacious links between supreme audit

institutions and parliamentary public accounts committees.

Carlos Santiso

Political economist,

School of Advanced International Studies,

Johns Hopkins University,

Washington, D.C.

CEPAL REVIEW 83 • AUGUST 2004

RECENT ECLAC PUBLICATIONS

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CHILE EN DEMOCRACIA 30 AÑOS DESPUÉS

AR T Í C U L O S

Parlamento, presidencialismo y democracia protegida 7

El Congreso chileno y su aporte a la consolidacióndemocrática en perspectiva comparada 43

La ideología de los partidos políticos chilenos,1994-2002: Rasgos constantes y peculiaridades 68

Party Change in Chile in Comparative Perspective 88

Los partidos políticos chilenos: Cambio y estabilidaden el comportamiento electoral 1990-2000 109

El movimiento obrero en Chile: De la Unidad Popular a laConcertación 148

La relación entre el Gobierno y los grupos de presión:El proceso de la acción de bloques a la acción segmentada 159

El pasado que nos pesa:La memoria colectiva del 11 de septiembre de 1973 177

Memoria y proyecto de país 215

Aquello que no se conmemora. ¿Democracias sin unpasado compartido? 231

The Chilean Military: Legalism Undermined, Manipulated,and Restored 241

30 años después: La ciencia política y las relacionesFuerzas Armadas, Estado y sociedad 251

ES T U D I O S

Los principales rasgos de la política exterior chilenaentre 1973 y el 2000 273

RE C E N S I O N E S

Peruzzotti, Enrique y Catalina Smulovitz.Controlando la política:Ciudadanos y Medios en las nuevas democracias 287

Londregan John B. Legislative Institutions and Ideology in Chile 289

O´Donnell Guillermo, Osvaldo Iazetta y Jorge Vargas Cullell.Democracia, Desarrollo Humano y Ciudadanía 292

ÓSCAR GODOY ARCAYA

DETLEF NOLTE

MANUEL ALCÁNTARA SÁEZ

ALAN ANGELL

EUGENIO ORTEGA FREI

PAUL W. DRAKE

GUILLERMO CAMPERO

JORGE MANZI, ELLEN HELSPER,SOLEDAD RUIZ, MARIANE KRAUSE,EDMUNDO KRONMÜLLER

MANUEL A. GARRETÓN

SANDRINE LEFRANC

PAUL E. SIGMUND

FELIPE AGÜERO

MANFRED WILHELMY,ROBERTO DURÁN

RAÚL ELGUETA

MARCO A. FERNÁNDEZ

PATRICIO VALDIVIESO

V O L U M E N X X I I / N ° 2 / 2 0 0 3

COMITÉ DICTAMINADOR: Enri que Ca sa res Gil (UAM-A), Gon za lo Cas ta ñe da (UDLA-P), Ge rar do Esqui vel(Col mex) , Ge rar do Ja cobs Álva rez (UIA), Ju lio Ló pez Ga llar do (UNAM), Juan Car los Mo re no Brid (CEPAL),Anto nio No rie ga Mu ro (Uni ver si dad de Gua na jua to), San gee ta Pra tap (ITAM). CONSEJO EDITORIAL:Edmar L. Ba cha, Ge rar do Bue no, Enri que Cár de nas, Artu ro Fer nán dez, Ricar do Ffrench-Da vis, Enri queFlo res ca no, Ro ber to Fren kel, Ke vin B. Grier, Ri car do Haus mann, Ale jan dro Her nán dez, Albert O.Hirschman, Hu go A. Ho pen hayn, Da vid Iba rra, Fe li pe La rraín, Fran cis co Lo pes, Gui ller mo Mal do na do,Rodol fo Ma nue lli, Jo sé A. Ocam po, Jo seph Ra mos, Luis Ángel Ro jo Du que, Gert Ro sent hal, Fran cis coSagas ti, Jai me Jo sé Se rra, Je sús Sil va Her zog Flo res, Osval do Sun kel, Car los Te llo, Swe der van Winj ber ger.

Di rec tor: Faus to Her nán dez Tri lloSe cre ta rio de Re dac ción: Gui ller mo Esca lan te A.

Vol. LXXI (2) Mé xi co, Abril-Ju nio de 2004 Núm. 282

PERSPECTIVA ECONÓMICA

Lo ren za Mar tínez, Aa rón Tor nelly Frank Wes ter mann

Glo ba li za ción, cre ci mien to y cri sis fi nan cie ras. Lec cio nes de Mé xi co y del mun do en de sa rro llo

ARTÍCULOS

Chris tian A. John son y Fa bián A. Soriano Vo la ti li dad del mer ca do ac cio na rio y la cri sisasiá ti ca. Evi den cia in ter na cio nal de asi me trías

Ma. Car men Lo za no Gui té rrezy Fe de ri co Fuen tes Martín

La re duc ción del ries go cam bia rio en los prés -ta mos en divisas

Ja vier Pra do Domínguez Una es ti ma ción de la eco no mía in for mal enEspa ña, se gún un en fo que mo ne ta rio, 1964-2001

Mel chor Fer nán dez y Cle men te Polo Con se cuen cias del ajus te fis cal en Espa ña

COMENTARIOS BIBLIOGRÁFICOS: Da vid Ma yer-Foul kes: Jai me Ros, La teo ría del de sa rro llo y la eco no míadel cre ci mien to, Mé xi co, Fon do de Cul tu ra Eco nó mi ca, 2004

EL TRIMESTRE ECONÓMICO apa re ce en los me ses de ene ro, abril, ju lio y oc tu bre. La sus crip ción en Mé xi-co cues ta $225.00. Nú me ro suel to $75.00.

Pre cios pa ra otros paí ses (dó la res)

Sus crip cio nes Nú me ro suel to

Cen troa mé ri ca y el Ca ri be 70.00 20.00

Sud amé ri ca y Espa ña 90.00 30.00

Ca na dá, Esta dos Uni dos y res to del mun do 120.00 33.00

Fon do de Cul tu ra Eco nó mi ca, ca rre te ra Pi ca cho Ajus co 227, Col. Bos ques del Pe dre gal, 14200 Mé xi co, Dis tri to Fe de ral. Sus crip cio nes y anun cios: te lé fo no 52 27 46 71, se ño ra Ir ma Ba rrón.

Co rreo elec tró ni co (E- mail): tri mes tre@fce.com.mxPá gi na del Fon do de Cul tu ra Eco nó mi ca en In ter net: http://www.fon do deculturaeconomica.com

Director: Dietmar DirmoserJefe de Redacción: S. Chejfec

América Latina US$ 56 US$ 97Resto del mundo US$ 86 US$ 157

PAGOS: Las suscripciones desde América Latina y el resto del mundoúnicamente se pueden efectuar con transferencias bancarias. Solicitarlos datos para la transferencia. Dirección: Apartado 61712, Chacao-Cara-cas 1060-A, Venezuela. Telfs.: (58-212) 267.31.89 / 265.99.75 / 265.53.21/ 266.16.48 / 265.18.49, Fax: 267.33.97; @: nuso@nuevasoc.org.ve;nusoven@nuevasoc.org.ve.

Las Relaciones América Latina-Caribey Unión Europea I

COYUNTURA: Lilian Bobea. República Dominicana. ¿Aúna la sombra del caudillismo? Alejandro Vial. Paraguay, ¿unnuevo comienzo? Ramiro Escobar La Cruz. Perú: de laincertidumbre al escándalo (y viceversa).APORTES: Héctor Alimonda. Anotaciones sobre historiaambiental, ecología política y agroecología en una pers-pectiva latinoamericana. Jorge Canda. Integración y librecomercio en Centroamérica.TEMA CENTRAL: Alberto van Klaveren. Las relacionespolíticas europeo-latinoamericanas. La necesidad de unasintonía más fina. Laurence Whitehead. La relación birre-gional. José Antonio Sanahuja. Un diálogo estructuradoy plural. La dimensión institucional de las relaciones UniónEuropea-América Latina. Wolf Grabendorff. La estrategiabirregional y sus limitaciones en un mundo unipolar.Christian Freres. ¿De las declaraciones a la asociaciónbirregional? Perspectivas de las cumbres entre la Unión Eu-ropea y América Latina y el Caribe. Jaime Acosta Puer-tas. La integración y el desarrollo de las regiones de lospaíses de la Unión Europea y América Latina.LIBROS. SUMMARIES.

NUEVASOCIEDADwww.nuevasoc.org.ve

���Ene-Feb 2004

Las Relaciones América Latina-Caribey Unión Europea II

COYUNTURA: Memoria corta

de un antiguo diferendo. Una focalización

equivocada de esfuerzos. La medite-

rraneidad boliviana y la integración regional.

Hacia una solución cosmopolita a la mediterra-

neidad de Bolivia.

APORTES: Desolación en México. Los

campesinos del siglo XXI. El empleo

en la encrucijada: del auge desarrollista a la globalización.

Entre la evasión y la exclusión social:

jóvenes que no estudian ni trabajan. Una exploración del

caso argentino. Las tensiones entre Cuba

y Europa con Estados Unidos de trasfondo.

TEMA CENTRAL: La Unión Europea: ¿una

alternativa estratégica para México?

Perspectivas y expectativas en las relaciones en-

tre Centroamérica y la Unión Europea.

El Caribe y la Unión Europea: un nuevo ba-

lance. Las relaciones Unión Europea-

Comunidad Andina: tareas inmediatas.

Las negociaciones Unión Europea-Mercosur. Entre la lenti-

tud y la indefinición. Diplomacia de cum-

bres y diplomacia ciudadana en la asociación birregional

desde la perspectiva del Mercosur.

SUMMARIES.

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