Proposal 2009262008 (1)

The Determinants of GDP in Malaysia

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 CHAPTER DESCRIPTION

This first chapter consists of an introduction and background to

the study towards the factors that influenced Gross Domestic

Product (GDP). This chapter also includes the problem statement,

objectives of the study, theoretical framework, scope and

hypotheses of the study. Besides that, it also briefly discusses

the significance of the study and limitations during the process

in completing this study.

1.2 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

This research is conducted to study on the factors that affect

performance of the gross domestic products (GDP) in Malaysia. The

determinants factors studied are inflation, government

expenditure and export in Malaysia form the year 2000 to 2009.

GDP is a common measure of economic well-being of a society. When

government officials plan for the future, they consider the

various economic sectors’ contribution to the GDP. GDP is the sum

of value added produced within the country. The gross domestic

1


product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) is the market value

of all final goods and services produced within a country in a

given period of time. It is often positively correlated with the

standard of living, alternative measures to GDP for that purpose.

Countries seek to increase their GDP in order to increase their

standard of living. Note that growth in GDP does not result in

increased purchasing power if the growth is due to inflation or

population increase. One way to calculate a nation’s GDP is to

sum all expenditures in the country. The expenditure approach

calculates GDP by summing the four possible types of expenditures

as follows:

GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Purchases + Net

Exports.

Consumption is the largest component of the GDP. In the U.S, the

largest and most stable component of consumption is services.

Consumption is calculated by adding durable and non-durable goods

and services expenditures. Investment includes investment in

fixed asset and increase in inventory. Government purchases are

equal to the government expenditures less government transfer

payments. Net exports are exports minus imports. Imports are

2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_of_living

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_income


subtracted since GDP is defined as the output of the domestic

economy. Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER)

forecasts Malaysia's GDP can grow at 5.2% in 2011 and maintained

its projection at 6.8% for this year GDP. It is noted that

Government's forecast for 5%-6% GDP growth in 2011 as compared to

7.0% last year.

1.3 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Over the last decade, Malaysia’s growth momentum has slowed,

largely attributed to low private investment which fell from an

average of about 25% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) pre-Asian

financial crisis to an average of about 10% of GDP post-crisis.

This is aggravated by the shortage of skilled and professional

workers as well as declining labour productivity compared with

other high-income Asian countries, such as the Republic of Korea,

Singapore and Taiwan.

As one can imagine, economic production and growth, what GDP

represents, has a large impact on nearly everyone within that

economy. For example, when the economy is healthy, we will

typically see low unemployment and wage increases as businesses

demand labor to meet the growing economy. A significant change in

GDP, whether up or down, usually has a significant effect on the

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stock market. It's not hard to understand why: a bad economy

usually means lower profits for companies, which in turn means

lower stock prices. Investors really worry about negative GDP

growth, which is one of the factors economists use to

determine whether an economy is in a recession.

The GDP growth rate is the most important indicator of economic

health. If GDP is growing, so will business, jobs and personal

income. If GDP is slowing down, then businesses will hold off

investing in new purchases and hiring new employees, waiting to

see if the economy will improve. This, in turn, can easily further

depress GDP and consumers have less money to spend on purchases.

If the GDP growth rate actually turns negative, then the economy

is heading towards a recession. This study sought to examine

knowledge about Gross Domestic Product (GDP).So, this research

done to measure whether the factors such as inflation, government

expenditure and export influenced the Gross Domestic Product in

Malaysia.

4

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp


1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1.4.1 To determine the factors that influenced Gross Domestic

Product

1.4.2 To examine the relationship between each of independent

variables with dependent variable

1.4.3 To study which is the most significant variable that

contributed to the performance of Gross Domestic Product

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Inflation

Government Expenditure

Export

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)


1.5 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The conceptual framework was needed in order to know the

relationship among the variables.

Independent variable

Dependent variable

Figure 1.5: Theoretical Framework

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1.6 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

From the problem statement and objectives of the study, the

researcher came out with four research questions:

1.6.1 How significant is the relationship between inflation

affect gross domestic products (GDP)?

1.6.2 To what extent the consumption expenditure impacts gross

domestic products (GDP)?

1.6.3 Did export affect the gross domestic product (GDP)?

1.7 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

In this study, four hypotheses were built to examine the

relationship between independent variable and dependent

variable. According to Uma Sekaran, the hypothesis can be

defined as a logically conjectured relationship between two or

more variables expressed in the form of a testable statement.

There are two types of hypotheses. The first type is null

hypothesis (Ho) and the other hypothesis is known as

alternative hypothesis (Ha). Null hypothesis is a proposition

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that states a definitive, exact relationship between two

variables. In general, the null statement is expressed as no

(significant) relationship between two variables or no

(significant) difference between two groups. The hypothesis

will come out such as follows:

Hypotheses 1

Ho = There is no significant relationship between inflation

and GDP

Ha = There is a significant relationship between inflation and

GDP

Hypotheses 2

Ho = There is no significant relationship between government

expenditure and GDP

Ha = There is a significant relationship between government

expenditure and GDP

Hypotheses 3

Ho = There is no significant relationship between export and

GDP

Ha = There is a significant relationship between export and GDP

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1.8 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This research is significant to:

1.8.1The Researcher

From this research, the researcher is able to get an

experience, increase more knowledge and skill and also to

obtain the understanding about Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) in Malaysia. On the other hand, by conducting this

research, it can answer the question in mind and give

inner satisfaction to the researcher.

1.8.2 The Government

The government is keeping on trying to increase the GDP.

So by take a look on this research, even there are some

literature showed the significant relationship it might

due to the economic condition in the country where the

study had been done. However the government still should

take a look on these variables because the economy of the

country is keep on changing due to external and internal

factor such as the recent news is the collapse of some

financial institution in United States.

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1.8.3 The Public

It is quite impossible to acknowledge the entire

individual about GDP. Even by media there is a lot of

news some people still can’t gather the information as

needed. It is important for the public to understand the

relationship between those variables. Later people can be

more understanding about what is happen to the country in

term of economy.

1.8.4 Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM)

This research can be used as a future reference by the

students as well as the lecturers. The use of the

findings of this research can give better understanding

about the problem matter and assist in developing a new

model that is more reliable for future action.

1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS

1.9.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is generally defined as the market value of the good

and services produced by a country. The gross domestic

product (GDP) is one the primary indicators used to gauge

the health of a country's economy. It represents the total

10

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economy.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/indicator.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp


dollar value of all goods and services produced over a

specific time period. Usually, GDP is expressed as a

comparison to the previous quarter or year. For example,

if the year-to-year GDP is up 3%, this is thought to mean

that the economy has grown by 3% over the last year.

1.9.2 Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices

for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently,

purchasing power is falling. Inflation means rising trends

of prices in the market. So as the prices rise of the

commodities in the market, people spend more money than

before, which will lead to lower savings. Lower savings

means less capital with the country. That results in

affecting the GDP.

1.9.3 Government Expenditure

Government spending or government expenditure is

classified by economists into three main types.

Government final consumption expenditure is government

acquisition of goods and services for current use to

directly satisfy individual or collective needs of the

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members of the community is classed. Government

acquisition of goods and services intended to create

future benefits, such as infrastructure investment or

research spending, is classed as government investment

(gross fixed capital formation), which usually is the

largest part of the government gross capital formation.

Acquisition of goods and services is made through own

production by the government (using the government's

labour force, fixed assets and purchased goods and

services for intermediate consumption) or through

purchases of goods and services from market producers.

Government expenditures that are not acquisition of goods

and services, and instead just represent transfers of

money, such as social security payments, are called

transfer payments. Government spending can be financed by

seigniorage, taxes, or government borrowing.

1.9.4 Export

The term export is derived from the conceptual meaning as

to ship the goods and services out of the port of a

country. The seller of such goods and services is referred

12

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seigniorage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_payment

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_consumption

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Gross_capital_formation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_fixed_capital_formation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest#Economics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest#Economics


to as an exporter who is based in the country of export

whereas the overseas based buyer is referred to as an

importer. In International Trade, exports refer to selling

goods and services produced in home country to other

markets. Any good or commodity, transported from one

country to another country in a legitimate fashion,

typically for use in trade. Export goods or services are

provided to foreign consumers by domestic producers.

1.10 SCOPES OF THE STUDY

The study only focuses on the factors that can influence the

Gross Domestic product (GDP). The scope of the study involves

the relationship between the inflation, government expenditure

and export as the dependent variable and GDP as the independent

variable.

To be able to reach the objectives stated, this study chooses

time series data as a sample from the year 2000 until 2009 which

is ten years.

13

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Production_theory_basics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_(economics_and_accounting)


1.11 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

In order to complete this research, a number of limitations

are faced by the researcher such as:

1.11.1 Time constraint and duration of the study

The time given to finish this study is limited for

several months only which are only 5 months. Due to the

time constraints, the progress of the work has not been

done smoothly as the time spends must be divided between

the tasks given by the company where the practical

training is held as well as the time to complete the

research. By considering this factor, it seems that there

are some difficulties in carrying out a good and

comprehensive study.

1.11.2 Lack of experience

Researcher has been lack of experience in conducting the

real research. A good research study needs the

experienced researcher. Since researcher is the beginner

in this field, thus researcher has a lack of experience

in conducting this study. It is hard for the researcher

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to determine a very reliable data and to sort all the

information out. Researcher found that it is a bit

difficult to conduct a research due to lack of experience

and it is totally a new experience. But researcher try to

work hard as possible although facing a lot of

constraint.

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1.11.3 Financial constraint

As a student, the researcher has a financial constraint

to carrying out the project paper. Financial constraint

is the important aspect in conducting the research. In

order to complete the research, the researcher has to

bear all the cost that involved. Limited budget and

energy prevented the researcher to get further

information.

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CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 INTRODUCTION

In this section, it will include the literature review from

previous study. According to Uma Sekaran (1993) literature

review is the documentation of a comprehensive view of the

published and unpublished work from secondary sources of data in

the area of special interest to the researcher. In this chapter,

prior studies on factors that influence GDP are discussed.

Literature reviews are dividing into four parts. First part

focused on the study between GDP and inflation rate. Second part

shows the relationship between GDP and government expenditure.

The last part will respectively explain the relationship between

GDP and export.

2.2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Ram (1986) studied the effect of the size of government

expenditure on economic growth for 115 countries for the 1960-

1980 periods. He found that although a higher rate of increase

in government expense is associated with a higher growth rate a

higher share of government expenditure in GDP dampens growth.

Barro (1990), Barro and Salai-Martin (1992) in his studies

consider government to be complimentary, not a substitute, for

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private investment, and examine the effect of government

expenditures on growth in this light. He found that an increase

in government expenditure would also forced GDP to be increased.

Barro (1990) examined an endogenous growth model that suggests a

possible relationship between the share of government spending

in GDP and the growth rate of per capita real GDP. The key

feature of Barro’s model is the presence of constant returns to

capital that broadly includes private capital and public

services. To the extent that public services are considered an

input to production, a possible linkage arises between the size

of government and economic growth.

2.3 INFLATION RATE AND GDP

Keynesian (2002) said that it is essential to study inflation in

each country because inflation is devastating. Inflation created

problem and introduced noises in the functioning of the economy

that is likely to affect economic growth. However it is not an

easy task to tackle the inflation problem effectively. In order

to hand inflation problem successfully, accurate assessment of

the causes of the problem is critical as strong diagnosis of the

nature of the problem will lead to the application of

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inappropriate cures that might produce unintended adverse effect

on the economy.

Ming-Yu Cheng (2002) studied that in the history of

inflationary in Malaysia, 1973 and 1974 were exceptional years.

Inflation rose significantly in both the international and

domestic market in 1973.The sharp oil price increase in 1973 and

1974 was the principal reason for the escalation of world

inflation in 1973-1974. However, the effect of an increase in oil

price was actually felt in 1974. The substantial price increase

in 1973 were bought about the mainly of the shortages of food and

raw material arising from bad weather and increased an aggregate

demand.

Consequently consumer price in Malaysia began to rise and had

reach of high level of 10.62 percent by the end of the year 0f

1973. In 1974, the surge in the oil price by over 230 percent put

strong fuel of inflation and the inflation rate in Malaysia was

increased to its record high of 17.29 percent. A year later

Malaysian economy slumped into its great recession with GDP

growth rate of only 0.8 percent in 1975 compared to 8.3 percent

in 1974.

The inflation rate in Malaysia was last reported at 2 percent

in November of 2010. From 2005 until 2010, the average inflation

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rate in Malaysia was 2.77 percent reaching an historical high of

8.50 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of -2.40 percent in

July of 2009. Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices

measured against a standard level of purchasing power. The most

well known measures of Inflation are the CPI which measures

consumer prices, and the GDP deflator, which measures inflation

in the whole of the domestic economy.

2.4 EXPORT

The studied by Michaely (1997), Heelr and Porter (1978),

Balassa (1978), Ram (1985) and Feder (1983) support the view

that export growth promotes overall economic growth. A serious

drawback of cross section studies, however, is that the issue

of causality between export growth and GDP growth is not

address directly. However, faster growing economics may give

rise to a greater dynamic export. Many authors have doubted

the validity conclusions based on cross country studies.

Sheehey (1990), for example investigates whether there are

other productive categories besides export whose growth has a

similar relationship to GDP.

Studies have found that a number of other determinant factors

contribute to economic growth.

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Ahmad and Harnhirun (1996) studied the economic success

of new industrial countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia,

Philippines, Singapore and Thailand using time data series

from the year 1966 until 1998 to find out whether export is

the cause of the countries’ economic growth. They found that

the link between export and economic growth lies in the

development policy. Interestingly, their studies also found

that it is economic development that causes economic growth,

and not vice versa.

Using the Heller and Porter (1978) approach of defining

GDP net of exports, he found weak support for exports as an

engine of growth and very little evidence consistent with a

government-led growth hypothesis. Dodaro (1993) found very

weak support for the contention that export growth promotes

GDP growth. Support for the alternate contention that GDP

growth promotes export growth was also weak, although somewhat

stronger than the former.

A number of studies have found that export growth exerts

a positive impact on GDP growth in less developed countries

(LDCs), even when capital and labor are controlled for. Using

a similar framework but recognizing the possible heterogeneity

of exports, the present paper finds, for the 1960–1980 period,

21


that while the primary export sector exhibits little or no

effect on GDP growth in LCDs, there is a differential positive

impact by the manufacturing export sector.

2.5 GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE

Studies by Dullah Mulok, Beatrice and Kasim Mansur (2010) used

cointegration analysis and the causality approach by Johansen

and ECM to analyze the relationship between consumption

expenditure and economic growth. The study concludes that

government expenditure may have a role as a catalyst and

complement determinant factors to economic growth in Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Sinha and Sinha (2007) studied the

relationship between per capita saving and and per capita GDP

in India using the Granger causality test based on the Toda

and Yamamoto approach. The data used were from 1950 to 2004.

The types of savings include household, corporate and public

savings. The results of their studies showed that there are no

causal relationships between per capita GDP with per capita

household savings or per capita corporate savings coming from

any direction. However, there exists a bilateral causal

relationship between per capita household savings and per

capita corporate savings.

22


Yoo (2006) tried to see the causal relationship between

electricity usage and economic growth amongst four ASEAN

countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand

using modern time series data for the years 1971 to 2002. They

found that there is a bilateral causal relationship between

electricity use and economic growth in Malaysia and Singapore,

while a one-way causal relationship exists towards economic

growth through electricity usage in Indonesia and Thailand.

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CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION

In this section, research methodology will discuss clearly

researcher research plan. All the method used to gain

understanding and answers to the research objectives, research

questions and the research hypotheses. . Research is simply

the process of finding solutions to a problem after a thorough

study and analysis of the situational factors (Uma Sekaran:

Research Methods for Business, 2005). This section discusses the

methods that will be use in the study. The scope that will be

discuss including the research design, sampling and data

collection, the instruments used for the research, measurement

and scaling, and the procedure in data analysis.

3.2 RESEARCH DESIGN

Research design is a master plan specifying the methods and

procedures for analyzing and collecting the needed

information. According to William G Zikmund, it is a framework

or blueprint that plans the action for the research project.

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It details the procedures necessary for obtaining the

information needed to structure or solve the research problem.

Causal Research Design was used in this research to identify

cause and affect relationship among variables, where the

research problem has already been narrowly defined. The

researcher wants to identify whether the factors such as

inflation, government expenditure and export are influenced

performance of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Malaysia.

3.3 DATA COLLECTION

According to Uma Sekaran (2005), data collection methods are

an integral part of research design. Data collection is a way

of gathering information for use in various studies or

decision making situations. Depending on the required outcome

or information needed methods of data collection can vary and

even be combined to achieve needed results. Data can be

obtained from primary or secondary sources. Primary data can

be referring to the information obtained firsthand by the

researcher on the variables of interest for the specific

purpose of the study. Meanwhile, secondary data can be

25


referring to the information gathered from sources already

existing. For this report, the researcher used secondary data.

3.3.1 Secondary data

The researcher firstly studies the entire journal from

internet, newspaper, library and other related press to

understand the Gross Domestic product (GDP). The previous

research reports, books, library and articles are

important sources to understand the issues. The data are

being collected using the DataStream UiTM data. Secondary

data helped the researcher to obtain the additional

information about the study. It is based on the data that

were collected for the purpose other than solving the

problem at hand (Malhotra, 1999).

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3.4 DATA ANALYSIS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

This chapter will reveal the finding of the study, which is

obtained through the regression analysis of the data. The purpose

of data analysis is to answer the research questions and to test

hypothesis. The data will be analyzed by using the Statistical

Package for Social Science (SPSS). A variety of statistical

techniques such as multiple regressions, the t-test, the f-test,

correlation analysis, and coefficient of determination were used

to analyze the data collected.

3.4.1 Statistical Package of Social Science (SPSS)

SPSS software for windows will be chosen to analyze the data

collected. SPSS is one of the most widely available and

powerful to summarize data determine whether there are

significant difference between group; examine relationship

among variables and graph result. All the data is treated and

interpreted by using relevant information from analysis

method.

3.4.2 Multiple Linear Regressions

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Multiple regressions analysis is done to examine the

simultaneous effects of several independent variables on a

dependent variable. This model is to measure the type of

relationship exists between two or more variables. The

relationship is expressed in a mathematical equation, which

gives the basis of estimating the value of dependent variables

based on the value of independent variables. In addition, the

researcher create the equation model based on the hypothesis

which relate with Y=GDP. The model derived from the Multiple

Linear Regression Model analysis as follow:

Y = β0 + β1 X1 + β2 X2 + β3 X3 + β4 X4 + ui

3.4.3 Correlation Coefficient (R)

A correlation coefficient shows how and in what direction the

both variables are move together. There are two sign use to

shows the direction of correlation coefficient, which are

negative and positive. When there is positive sign, it shows the

relationship between the variables is positive. When there is

negative, it shows the relationship between the variables is

negative. Then, the range of this coefficient is between -1 and

1. The coefficients of correlation give strength and direction

of the relationship (Malhotra, 2004). Other than the need for an

28


equation that describes the relationship between the dependent

and independent variable, there is a need to indicate the

closeness of the association or correlation that exist in the

study. Therefore, Coefficient of Correlation (R) is used to

provide additional empirical evidence and to derive the

regression result.

3.4.4 Coefficient of Determination (R²)

A coefficient of determination is used to test the power of

explanation of the entire regression equation. The square

represents the entire correlation coefficient on how well a

regression model explains the changes in the value of the

dependent variables. In the multiple regression analysis, the

set of predictor variables X1, X2 and X3 is used to explain

variability of the criterion variable Y. A multivariate

counterpart of the coefficient of determination r2 is the

coefficient of multiple determinations, R². The square root of

the coefficient of multiple determinations is the coefficient of

multiple correlations, R.

There are several conditions to explain the R²:

29


If the R² is close to 0, there is not much linear

relationship between dependent and independent

variables.

If the R² is close to 1, there is a strong

relationship between dependent and independent

variables.

If the R² is equal to 0, there is no relationship

between dependent and independent variables.

If the R² is equal to 1, it shows that the

dependent variable is explained by all the

independent variables.

3.4.5 T- Statistic

T-statistics is used to test the hypothesis either null

hypothesis and alternate hypothesis. It is also to test

whether there is statistically significant relationship

between the dependent variables and independent variables. To

test the hypothesis, the researcher makes comparisons between

the absolute value of the t-statistics to the tabulated value

of t-table with the degree of freedom. Normally, the

significant value is at level 95% confident interval.

30


It is calculated as follows:

Computed t= β

S

Where; β = regression coefficient of independent variables

S = standard error

Critical value:

Degree of freedom, (df) = n – k – 1 at 95% confidence

interval

Where:

n = number of observation

k = number of independent variables

The significant or not the variable depends on two conditions;

If t- value > t- distribution table;

It means that there is a significant relationship

between the dependent variable and independent

variables. Therefore, HA will be accepted and HO will

be rejected.

If t- value < t- distribution table;

It means that there is no significant relationship

between the dependent variable and independent

variables. Therefore, HA will be rejected and HO will

be accepted.

3.4.6 F-statistic (F-test)

31


This F-test is used to test the overall model. It provides an

overall appraisal of the regression equation appeased in

evaluating the significant of each component in the model.

Moreover, f-statistics tests whether a significant proportion of

the total variation independent is explained by the estimated

regression equation. There is a formula to calculate the F-value

and the formula can be expressed as:

F = explained variation / (k-1)

Total variation / (n-1)

Where:

F = ratio of the variance

k = number of estimated parameters

n = number of observation

The F statistic can also calculated as follows

F = R ² / (k-1)

(1- R²)

The researcher compares the calculated or regression value of

the F statistics with a critical value from the table of the F

32


distribution for the 5% level of significance or 95%

confidence interval to conduct the F-test or analysis of

variance,

The F distribution for each level of statistical significance

is defined in terms of two degree of freedom. There are:

o k-1 for the numerator

o n-k-1 for the denominator

After finding the numerator and denominator, then by referring

to the table of F distribution for 5% significance, the

researcher finds the critical value of F statistics.

If the calculated value F-statistics > critical value (> 5%),

there is significant relationship between independent

variables and dependent variables.

If the calculated value F-statistics < critical value (< 5%),

there is insignificant relationship between independent

variables and dependent variables. The model is not valid for

forecasting.

33


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H. Rognvaldur (2009), The Norwegian School of Economics and

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Tang C.F., 2010, An exploration of dynamic relationship between

tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in

Malaysia, Department of economics Faculty of Economics and

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pp. 50-69

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Sekaran, U. (2006). Research Methodology.

INTERNET

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37

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product

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