ASSIGNMENT 5 2 final edition[rev2]

Running Head: ASSIGNMENT #5.2

Assignment #5.2: Quantitative Research Design: Combine the

previous two parts of the design project along with enhancements

from feedback. Create a high level proposal for your Quantitative

research project.

Carlos Pedro Mucavele

This paper is submitted in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for Quantitative Research Methodology Course

SMC University

Dr. Ted Q Sun

I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 2

Abstract

The study examines the income response of cashew nuts. The

producers’ decisions to prices, production and yield changes

affecting the income generation to farmers. The study use time

series data on prices and production for the period 1998/99 to

2012/13 to look at production, yields and prices as determinants

of farmer’s income behavior. Despites the elapsed 13 years of

implementation of the reverting policy measures, production and

yields remain low. In fact the production of raw cashew

decreased by 9% in average per annum, during the period 1998/99-

2012/13. From the equation, Y=Q x Pr, being Y, the farmers

income, Q, the production of raw cashew and Pr, the price at farm

gate, define the determinants of income generation to farmers.

Therefore one can state that the farmers’ income also declined

during the above mentioned period. The study also tests the

efficiency and efficacy of the integrated pest management -IPM

approach and the Intensification of production and distributions

of seedlings-IPDS, in Mozambique. The study investigates whether

is there a relationship between farmers’ income and Integrated


Management pests and renewal of Cashew Trees? In answering the

raised research question the study develops two models, the price

and yields response models. The study establishes validity and

reliability coefficients in the selected instruments for the

variables, IPM, IPDS and prices that determine the scientific

worth of the research.

Key words: Research problem, Correlational study,

longitudinal study, Quantitative Research question and

hypotheses, Population and sampling strategy, Data collection and

Statistical analysis methods.


Contents1. Introduction................................................4

2. Research problem............................................4

3. Purpose of research.........................................5

3.1 Overall objectives.......................................5

3.2-Specific Objectives.......................................6

4. Significance of research....................................6

5. Quantitative Research questions and hypotheses..............7

6. Research methodology and rationale for its selection........8

Yield Response Model..........................................8

Price Response Model..........................................9

7. Population and sampling strategy............................9

8. Data collection............................................10

9. Instrument description and validation......................11

10. Statistical analysis methods..............................11

11. Ethical considerations....................................12


Income Response of Cashew Nuts in Mozambique

1. Introduction

The subject of this study arises from practical situation of the

implementation of two policy instruments, (1st) integrated

management of cashew tree diseases-IPM and (2nd) intensification

of production and distribution of seedlings-IPDS, in Mozambique.

The strategic objective of both policy measures is to increase

the income of rural households and the contribution to the

balance of payment trough sustainable increase in production and

quality of raw cashew, 1(INCAJU, 2011, p.10). Despites the

elapsed 13 years, from 1998/99 to 2012/13, of implementation of

these policy measures, production, and yields remain low, which

demands to be carefully evaluated.

INCAJU (2011, p 5-33), while the target yields were 7- 15kg/

tree, during phase I of policies implementation , 1998/99 to

2005/6 only 6-8kg/tree was attained in average. The challenge now

1 Institute of Cashew Promotion of Mozambique


is to meet the targets of 10 to 15 kg/tree by 2020, in phase II

that extends from 2010 to 2020.

2. Research problem

Problems definition highlighting what is being examined is the

crucial stage of the research process (Descombe, 2003).

The government of Mozambique adopted and started

implementation, in 1999, of two policy measures, aiming to

increase the income of small farmer growing cashew crop. Despites

these policies, data from INCAJU, reveals that, the production

of raw cashew decreases by 9% in average, from 1998/99 to

2012/13. The study examines the response of producers to prices,

production and yield changes affecting the income generation to

farmers.

INCAJU (2011, p 5-33), before the adoption of the above policy

measures the yield was 4kg/tree. The analysis of the

implementation of the two policy instruments, to revert the

decrease in production and increase yields, reveals that both

targets, yields and income are far from being achieved. In 1972


Mozambique achieved the top of production in history, about 216

thousand metric tons against the 65and 85 thousand metric tons in

2011/12 and 2012/13, respectively.

INCAJU(2011, P. 5-33) Despites the remarkable increase in number

of distributed seedlings and beneficiaries, from 976 thousand to

1.8 million and from 98.7 to 116.4 thousand families, from 2006

to 2010, respectively, the number of newly established plants

are not available and the efficiency and efficacy of the two

policy measures are still a big concern.

The low yield of about 6 to 8 kg /plant, low quality of raw

cashew, with an outturn of 42 to 46 and the prevalence of

diseases, are still the major constraints to income generation to

farmers.

The study investigates whether there is causal relation between

the production as dependent variable and prices, integrated

management of cashew trees and distribution of seedlings, as

explanatory variables (INCAJU, 2011, pp.5-33).


3. Purpose of research

3.1 Overall objectives

The study intends to test the efficiency and efficacy of the

ongoing policy instruments and enlighten for possible

corrections. The effectiveness and usefulness of the two policy

instruments depends on whether the strategic objective of

increasing the income of rural households and the contribution to

the balance of payment trough sustainable increase in production

and quality of raw cashew (INCAJU, 1999, p. 10), have been met,.

The study will also investigates whether is there a causal

relation between the yield as dependent variable and the prices,

the integrated management of cashew trees and the production,

distribution of plantains, as explanatory variables.

3.2-Specific Objectives

The study estimates the proportion of changes in income explained

by the integrated management of cashew tree diseases,

intensification of production and distributions of seedlings,

prices and yields.


The research studies the dependence of income, on yield and

production variables, measuring the strength or degree of linear

association between the variables and, will also estimates the t

coefficient as a predictor of reliability of the predictive

power. The t values of each explanatory variable is interpreted

in order to inform the acceptance or rejection of the null

hypothesis, in light with the statistical limits.

4. Significance of research

The cashew crop is an income crop that is essentially a

smallholder’s crop and, competes with food crop in time and

resources allocations. INCAJU (2011, p 5-22) the size of

population affected by the decrease of production and prevalence

of low yield is about 1.4 million smallholders. These are rural

farmers involved in cashew sector, and represents about 42% of

the total population in agriculture sector.

INCAJU adopted and is implementing two major policy measures,

namely, integrated pest management - IPM, targeting diseases such

as powdery mildew, antrachnosis and helopeltis pest and,


intensification of production and distributions of seedlings-

IPDS, aiming to renew the cashew trees plantations.

The study contributes scientifically in enlightening adequate

policy measures to boost yield and production of cashew nuts, one

of major source of income of the rural households in Mozambique.

The study contributes to creation of body of knowledge on factors

of successes or failures in public policies implementation in

cashew sector.

5. Quantitative Research questions and hypotheses

In examining the above problem, one fundamental question is

raised, which is worth to pursue, further, namely: is there a

relationship between farmers’ income and Integrated Management

pests and renewal of Cashew Trees? Turning the research question

into a research project and selecting the most appropriate

research design are the crucial parts of any enquiry, (Meadow,

K.A. 2003, p.519). Therefore, in answering this research

questions the study develops two response models, the price and

yields response models.


The Yields model tests the null and alternative hypotheses that

(H0): Integrated management and renewal of Cashew trees is

positively responsive to Yield increase. (H1): Integrated

management and renewal of Cashew trees is not positively

responsive to Yield increase. The yield analysis is also perfect

predictors of production behavior as dependent variable. The

price model nil and alternative hypotheses are (H0) Integrated

management and renewal of Cashew trees is positively responsive

to price increase. (H1): Integrated management and renewal of

Cashew trees is not positively responsive to Yield increase.

The problem statement, research questions and hypotheses

developed above are typically quantitative research project

design. This research is a longitudinal study looking at

integrated management of Cashew tree diseases and plantations

renewal over 13years, elapsed since the program started, as

determinants to yields and prices affecting the farmers income

generation.


6. Research methodology and rationale for its selection

The equality, Y=Q x Pr, being Y, the farmers income, Q, the

production of raw cashew and Pr, the price at farm gate, define

the determinants of income generation to farmers.

The study use time series data on prices and production for the

period 1998/99 to 2012/13. This is a correlational study that

looks at yield and prices as determinants of farmer’s income

behavior. The primary data are obtained from Agriculture census

and annual Surveys and specific individual data collection.

Additionally, the primary data will be collected through a field

survey to be conducted and during which a questionnaire is

developed and administered to a panel of farmers who are heads

of randomly selected households from one of cashew grower’s area

in Nampula province. The sample size will be proportional to

population size and distribution of each selected area.

Additional source of data for the study will be the INCAJU’s

progress reports.

Yield Response Model

The main assumption of this model is that yield is determinant to

production and the late to farmers ‘income.


The yield response model general specification is

being Pt the

yield/tree, FIMC, number of families beneficiaries of IMC, TIMC,

number of trees sprayed, DIPDCPt-3 number of distributed

plantains lagged 3 years and Ut the residuals.

Price Response Model

The guiding assumption of the model is that the prices are

determinants of income generation to farmers. The model is

specified as Pr= f (Ot, FIMC, TIMC, DIPDCP), being Ot the outturn

of raw cashew. Pt the yield/tree, FIMC, number of families

beneficiaries of IMC, TIMC, number of trees pulverized, DIPDCPt-3

number of distributed plantains lagged 3 years and Ut the

residuals.

These equations allow for analysis of the effect of are price and

yield on income by specifying the model of behavior of each

determinant of income due to changes in specific variables

affecting producers’ decision. The selected variables are the


prices of cashew nuts which may have influence in producers´

decision on production; the Yields, as determinant of quantities

produced that have influence in producers ‘decision on number of

tree to be sprayed, the new seedlings distributed that have

influence in producers ‘decision on renewal of cashew plantations

and the beneficiaries, as producers’ adherence to IPDP program.

The adopted response models and the selected variables explain

the behavior of the price and yield as determinants of income.

7. Population and sampling strategy

The sample frame for the study is the 1.4 million small farmers

growing cashew crop and beneficiaries of the integrated

management and renewal of cashew tree. Porter (1999, as cited by

Park 2006, p.45) the study identifies key characteristics that

participants must have in common to participate in the study.

The common traits of the farmers to integrate the study sample,

are (a) to be beneficiary of at least one of the two policy

instruments, for at least 5 years (b) to be a cashew crop grower

for at least 5 years, and (c) to be market oriented producer.

Creswell and Clark, (2007, p. 388) quantitative studies,


preferably uses randomly sampling strategies. This study uses

probabilistic strategy that comprehends random and stratified

sampling techniques. The sample selection consists in two stages,

(1st ) for selection of enumeration areas and (2nd ) selection of

households per enumeration area. The households integrating the

sample will be stratified by size, small, medium and large scale

farmers.

8. Data collection

The data are mainly collected from agricultural surveys

undertaken in the country through the Annual Agricultural Survey

and INCAJU monitoring system. The study uses primary data

obtained from Agriculture census and annual Surveys and specific

individual data collection. Additional source of data for the

study is the secondary data collected systematically in

monitoring process of the integrated management and renewal of

cashew tree programs. This takes the form of reviewing the

literature and monitoring and evaluation reports of the program.

Brause (2012, p.113) stated that in a study people who are

participating are helping. The study is dependent on getting good


data from respondents which implies that respondents’ priorities

has to be accommodated in the process of accessing the

participants. Effort will be made to accommodate this principle

of scientific research.

The study will collect comprehensive data from small farmers on

the number of trees under the IPM, seedlings received under IPDS,

and income received from sells, agricultural inputs (chemicals),

cashew competing crops, and agricultural practices, marketing,

storage, membership to associations and agricultural credit.

9. Instrument description and validation

The critical instruments used in the analyze of the

relationship between the variables integrating the two response

model in this study, are the coefficient of determination,

and the coefficient of correlation, that measure the proportion

of the total variation in dependent variable explained by the

regression model and the degree of association between the

variables, respectively( Gujarati 1988).


The validity and reliability of the study are given by the

coefficients of correlation and of determination. Depending on

the desired reliability, a minimum correlation coefficient of 0.7

satisfies reliability criterion (Nunnally, 1978, as cited by

Cohen & Swerdlik, 2004, p. 130).

Regardless of the method used, reliability and validity are key

aspects to ensuring the scientific worth of a quantitative study.

Gujarati(1988) there two critical instruments to analyze the

relationship between variables, the coefficient of

determination, , , and the coefficient of correlation, that

measure the proportion of the total variation in dependent

variable explained by the regression model and the degree of

association between two variables, respectively.

10. Statistical analysis methods

The computed estimator, , the measure of goodness of fit,

gives the proportion of changes in dependent variable explained

by the explanatory variables (Gujarati, 1988).


Gujarati (1988), any t-value greater than +2 or less than - 2 is

acceptable. The higher the t-value, the greater the confidence we

have in the coefficient as a predictor. Low t-values are

indications of low reliability of the predictive power of that

coefficient. The t values of each explanatory variable inform the

acceptance or rejection of the null hypothesis, in light with the

statistical limits.

Creswell (2001, as cited by Sun 2009, p.7) the study establishes

validity and reliability coefficients in the selected instruments

for the variables, IMC, IPDP and prices, that determines the

scientific worth of the research. Without satisfying both, the

study will have little, if any, value to the body of scientific

knowledge.

11. Ethical considerations

One of basilar and prominent rules, ensuring public trust in

official statistics, in all ethical principles declarations, is

the confidentiality principle, (Guzmán and Villán, 2011, p.77).


In data collection process, before any interview starts, the

interviewer explains the participants on the rules governing the

statistical confidentiality, as to construct an informed consent

of the participants. A summary review of the National

Statistical System in Mozambique ( SEN, 1996), Law n.º 7/96, is

given to participants, that consist on its article 10, on

transparency, that postulates the rights of the informants or

interviewees to be given the legal basis, the objectives and

measures to ensure confidentiality and the exclusive use of the

information for research purpose. The article 14, gives

the rules to ensure confidentiality, that are: all personal

information are treated as confidential, they cannot be

incorporated in any publication nor to be made available to

others; none of official authorities can mandate the detailed

verification of conformity; personal details of participants

cannot be displayed; individual information of public and private

entities cannot be displayed except when there is priori consent

from referred entities, all collected data are ethical secret.


The interviewer gives a comprehensive understanding of the

research problem, its objectives and expected result which is

critical to build an informed consent of the participants.


References

Brause, R. S. (2012). Writing your doctoral dissertation:

invisible rules for success. London and New York: Taylor &

Francis Group.

Creswell, J. W. and Clark, V. P. (2007). Designing and

Conducting Mixed Methods Research. California. Sage

Publications.

Descombe, M (2003) The Good Research Guide: for small-scale

social research projects. Retrieved from

https://swissmc.blackboard.com.

Gujarati, D. N. (1988). Basic Econometrics- Singapore, McGraw Hill

International Co.

Guzmán, P. M. and Villán, I. (2011). Ethics, laws and practices

dealing with the Protection of confidentiality of

statistical data: Some experiences from Spain. Statistical Journal

of the IAOS 27(10), 77–85.

https://swissmc.blackboard.com/


Institute of Cashew Promotion (INCAJU, 1999). Master Plan for

Cashew. Retrieved from

http://elearning.trree.org/pluginfile.php/633/mod

Meadows, K. A. (2003). So You Want to do Research? 4: An

Introduction to Quantitative Methods. British Journal of Community

Nursing, 8(11).

República De Moçambique Lei N. º 7/96 (1996). Lei De Bases

Do Sistema Estatístico Nacional. Retrieved from


Sun, T. (2011).Understanding the rational of relationship between

self constructs and leadership behaviors as a function of

generation. Retrieved from https://swissmc.blackboard.com.

https://swissmc.blackboard.com/



ASSIGNMENT 5 2 final edition[rev2]

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