Running Head: ASSIGNMENT #5.2
Assignment #5.2: Quantitative Research Design: Combine the
previous two parts of the design project along with enhancements
from feedback. Create a high level proposal for your Quantitative
research project.
Carlos Pedro Mucavele
This paper is submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for Quantitative Research Methodology Course
SMC University
Dr. Ted Q Sun
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 2
Abstract
The study examines the income response of cashew nuts. The
producers’ decisions to prices, production and yield changes
affecting the income generation to farmers. The study use time
series data on prices and production for the period 1998/99 to
2012/13 to look at production, yields and prices as determinants
of farmer’s income behavior. Despites the elapsed 13 years of
implementation of the reverting policy measures, production and
yields remain low. In fact the production of raw cashew
decreased by 9% in average per annum, during the period 1998/99-
2012/13. From the equation, Y=Q x Pr, being Y, the farmers
income, Q, the production of raw cashew and Pr, the price at farm
gate, define the determinants of income generation to farmers.
Therefore one can state that the farmers’ income also declined
during the above mentioned period. The study also tests the
efficiency and efficacy of the integrated pest management -IPM
approach and the Intensification of production and distributions
of seedlings-IPDS, in Mozambique. The study investigates whether
is there a relationship between farmers’ income and Integrated
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 3
Management pests and renewal of Cashew Trees? In answering the
raised research question the study develops two models, the price
and yields response models. The study establishes validity and
reliability coefficients in the selected instruments for the
variables, IPM, IPDS and prices that determine the scientific
worth of the research.
Key words: Research problem, Correlational study,
longitudinal study, Quantitative Research question and
hypotheses, Population and sampling strategy, Data collection and
Statistical analysis methods.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 4
Contents1. Introduction................................................4
2. Research problem............................................4
3. Purpose of research.........................................5
3.1 Overall objectives.......................................5
3.2-Specific Objectives.......................................6
4. Significance of research....................................6
5. Quantitative Research questions and hypotheses..............7
6. Research methodology and rationale for its selection........8
Yield Response Model..........................................8
Price Response Model..........................................9
7. Population and sampling strategy............................9
8. Data collection............................................10
9. Instrument description and validation......................11
10. Statistical analysis methods..............................11
11. Ethical considerations....................................12
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 5
Income Response of Cashew Nuts in Mozambique
1. Introduction
The subject of this study arises from practical situation of the
implementation of two policy instruments, (1st) integrated
management of cashew tree diseases-IPM and (2nd) intensification
of production and distribution of seedlings-IPDS, in Mozambique.
The strategic objective of both policy measures is to increase
the income of rural households and the contribution to the
balance of payment trough sustainable increase in production and
quality of raw cashew, 1(INCAJU, 2011, p.10). Despites the
elapsed 13 years, from 1998/99 to 2012/13, of implementation of
these policy measures, production, and yields remain low, which
demands to be carefully evaluated.
INCAJU (2011, p 5-33), while the target yields were 7- 15kg/
tree, during phase I of policies implementation , 1998/99 to
2005/6 only 6-8kg/tree was attained in average. The challenge now
1 Institute of Cashew Promotion of Mozambique
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 6
is to meet the targets of 10 to 15 kg/tree by 2020, in phase II
that extends from 2010 to 2020.
2. Research problem
Problems definition highlighting what is being examined is the
crucial stage of the research process (Descombe, 2003).
The government of Mozambique adopted and started
implementation, in 1999, of two policy measures, aiming to
increase the income of small farmer growing cashew crop. Despites
these policies, data from INCAJU, reveals that, the production
of raw cashew decreases by 9% in average, from 1998/99 to
2012/13. The study examines the response of producers to prices,
production and yield changes affecting the income generation to
farmers.
INCAJU (2011, p 5-33), before the adoption of the above policy
measures the yield was 4kg/tree. The analysis of the
implementation of the two policy instruments, to revert the
decrease in production and increase yields, reveals that both
targets, yields and income are far from being achieved. In 1972
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 7
Mozambique achieved the top of production in history, about 216
thousand metric tons against the 65and 85 thousand metric tons in
2011/12 and 2012/13, respectively.
INCAJU(2011, P. 5-33) Despites the remarkable increase in number
of distributed seedlings and beneficiaries, from 976 thousand to
1.8 million and from 98.7 to 116.4 thousand families, from 2006
to 2010, respectively, the number of newly established plants
are not available and the efficiency and efficacy of the two
policy measures are still a big concern.
The low yield of about 6 to 8 kg /plant, low quality of raw
cashew, with an outturn of 42 to 46 and the prevalence of
diseases, are still the major constraints to income generation to
farmers.
The study investigates whether there is causal relation between
the production as dependent variable and prices, integrated
management of cashew trees and distribution of seedlings, as
explanatory variables (INCAJU, 2011, pp.5-33).
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 8
3. Purpose of research
3.1 Overall objectives
The study intends to test the efficiency and efficacy of the
ongoing policy instruments and enlighten for possible
corrections. The effectiveness and usefulness of the two policy
instruments depends on whether the strategic objective of
increasing the income of rural households and the contribution to
the balance of payment trough sustainable increase in production
and quality of raw cashew (INCAJU, 1999, p. 10), have been met,.
The study will also investigates whether is there a causal
relation between the yield as dependent variable and the prices,
the integrated management of cashew trees and the production,
distribution of plantains, as explanatory variables.
3.2-Specific Objectives
The study estimates the proportion of changes in income explained
by the integrated management of cashew tree diseases,
intensification of production and distributions of seedlings,
prices and yields.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 9
The research studies the dependence of income, on yield and
production variables, measuring the strength or degree of linear
association between the variables and, will also estimates the t
coefficient as a predictor of reliability of the predictive
power. The t values of each explanatory variable is interpreted
in order to inform the acceptance or rejection of the null
hypothesis, in light with the statistical limits.
4. Significance of research
The cashew crop is an income crop that is essentially a
smallholder’s crop and, competes with food crop in time and
resources allocations. INCAJU (2011, p 5-22) the size of
population affected by the decrease of production and prevalence
of low yield is about 1.4 million smallholders. These are rural
farmers involved in cashew sector, and represents about 42% of
the total population in agriculture sector.
INCAJU adopted and is implementing two major policy measures,
namely, integrated pest management - IPM, targeting diseases such
as powdery mildew, antrachnosis and helopeltis pest and,
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 10
intensification of production and distributions of seedlings-
IPDS, aiming to renew the cashew trees plantations.
The study contributes scientifically in enlightening adequate
policy measures to boost yield and production of cashew nuts, one
of major source of income of the rural households in Mozambique.
The study contributes to creation of body of knowledge on factors
of successes or failures in public policies implementation in
cashew sector.
5. Quantitative Research questions and hypotheses
In examining the above problem, one fundamental question is
raised, which is worth to pursue, further, namely: is there a
relationship between farmers’ income and Integrated Management
pests and renewal of Cashew Trees? Turning the research question
into a research project and selecting the most appropriate
research design are the crucial parts of any enquiry, (Meadow,
K.A. 2003, p.519). Therefore, in answering this research
questions the study develops two response models, the price and
yields response models.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 11
The Yields model tests the null and alternative hypotheses that
(H0): Integrated management and renewal of Cashew trees is
positively responsive to Yield increase. (H1): Integrated
management and renewal of Cashew trees is not positively
responsive to Yield increase. The yield analysis is also perfect
predictors of production behavior as dependent variable. The
price model nil and alternative hypotheses are (H0) Integrated
management and renewal of Cashew trees is positively responsive
to price increase. (H1): Integrated management and renewal of
Cashew trees is not positively responsive to Yield increase.
The problem statement, research questions and hypotheses
developed above are typically quantitative research project
design. This research is a longitudinal study looking at
integrated management of Cashew tree diseases and plantations
renewal over 13years, elapsed since the program started, as
determinants to yields and prices affecting the farmers income
generation.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 12
6. Research methodology and rationale for its selection
The equality, Y=Q x Pr, being Y, the farmers income, Q, the
production of raw cashew and Pr, the price at farm gate, define
the determinants of income generation to farmers.
The study use time series data on prices and production for the
period 1998/99 to 2012/13. This is a correlational study that
looks at yield and prices as determinants of farmer’s income
behavior. The primary data are obtained from Agriculture census
and annual Surveys and specific individual data collection.
Additionally, the primary data will be collected through a field
survey to be conducted and during which a questionnaire is
developed and administered to a panel of farmers who are heads
of randomly selected households from one of cashew grower’s area
in Nampula province. The sample size will be proportional to
population size and distribution of each selected area.
Additional source of data for the study will be the INCAJU’s
progress reports.
Yield Response Model
The main assumption of this model is that yield is determinant to
production and the late to farmers ‘income.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 13
The yield response model general specification is
being Pt the
yield/tree, FIMC, number of families beneficiaries of IMC, TIMC,
number of trees sprayed, DIPDCPt-3 number of distributed
plantains lagged 3 years and Ut the residuals.
Price Response Model
The guiding assumption of the model is that the prices are
determinants of income generation to farmers. The model is
specified as Pr= f (Ot, FIMC, TIMC, DIPDCP), being Ot the outturn
of raw cashew. Pt the yield/tree, FIMC, number of families
beneficiaries of IMC, TIMC, number of trees pulverized, DIPDCPt-3
number of distributed plantains lagged 3 years and Ut the
residuals.
These equations allow for analysis of the effect of are price and
yield on income by specifying the model of behavior of each
determinant of income due to changes in specific variables
affecting producers’ decision. The selected variables are the
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 14
prices of cashew nuts which may have influence in producers´
decision on production; the Yields, as determinant of quantities
produced that have influence in producers ‘decision on number of
tree to be sprayed, the new seedlings distributed that have
influence in producers ‘decision on renewal of cashew plantations
and the beneficiaries, as producers’ adherence to IPDP program.
The adopted response models and the selected variables explain
the behavior of the price and yield as determinants of income.
7. Population and sampling strategy
The sample frame for the study is the 1.4 million small farmers
growing cashew crop and beneficiaries of the integrated
management and renewal of cashew tree. Porter (1999, as cited by
Park 2006, p.45) the study identifies key characteristics that
participants must have in common to participate in the study.
The common traits of the farmers to integrate the study sample,
are (a) to be beneficiary of at least one of the two policy
instruments, for at least 5 years (b) to be a cashew crop grower
for at least 5 years, and (c) to be market oriented producer.
Creswell and Clark, (2007, p. 388) quantitative studies,
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 15
preferably uses randomly sampling strategies. This study uses
probabilistic strategy that comprehends random and stratified
sampling techniques. The sample selection consists in two stages,
(1st ) for selection of enumeration areas and (2nd ) selection of
households per enumeration area. The households integrating the
sample will be stratified by size, small, medium and large scale
farmers.
8. Data collection
The data are mainly collected from agricultural surveys
undertaken in the country through the Annual Agricultural Survey
and INCAJU monitoring system. The study uses primary data
obtained from Agriculture census and annual Surveys and specific
individual data collection. Additional source of data for the
study is the secondary data collected systematically in
monitoring process of the integrated management and renewal of
cashew tree programs. This takes the form of reviewing the
literature and monitoring and evaluation reports of the program.
Brause (2012, p.113) stated that in a study people who are
participating are helping. The study is dependent on getting good
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 16
data from respondents which implies that respondents’ priorities
has to be accommodated in the process of accessing the
participants. Effort will be made to accommodate this principle
of scientific research.
The study will collect comprehensive data from small farmers on
the number of trees under the IPM, seedlings received under IPDS,
and income received from sells, agricultural inputs (chemicals),
cashew competing crops, and agricultural practices, marketing,
storage, membership to associations and agricultural credit.
9. Instrument description and validation
The critical instruments used in the analyze of the
relationship between the variables integrating the two response
model in this study, are the coefficient of determination,
and the coefficient of correlation, that measure the proportion
of the total variation in dependent variable explained by the
regression model and the degree of association between the
variables, respectively( Gujarati 1988).
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 17
The validity and reliability of the study are given by the
coefficients of correlation and of determination. Depending on
the desired reliability, a minimum correlation coefficient of 0.7
satisfies reliability criterion (Nunnally, 1978, as cited by
Cohen & Swerdlik, 2004, p. 130).
Regardless of the method used, reliability and validity are key
aspects to ensuring the scientific worth of a quantitative study.
Gujarati(1988) there two critical instruments to analyze the
relationship between variables, the coefficient of
determination, , , and the coefficient of correlation, that
measure the proportion of the total variation in dependent
variable explained by the regression model and the degree of
association between two variables, respectively.
10. Statistical analysis methods
The computed estimator, , the measure of goodness of fit,
gives the proportion of changes in dependent variable explained
by the explanatory variables (Gujarati, 1988).
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 18
Gujarati (1988), any t-value greater than +2 or less than - 2 is
acceptable. The higher the t-value, the greater the confidence we
have in the coefficient as a predictor. Low t-values are
indications of low reliability of the predictive power of that
coefficient. The t values of each explanatory variable inform the
acceptance or rejection of the null hypothesis, in light with the
statistical limits.
Creswell (2001, as cited by Sun 2009, p.7) the study establishes
validity and reliability coefficients in the selected instruments
for the variables, IMC, IPDP and prices, that determines the
scientific worth of the research. Without satisfying both, the
study will have little, if any, value to the body of scientific
knowledge.
11. Ethical considerations
One of basilar and prominent rules, ensuring public trust in
official statistics, in all ethical principles declarations, is
the confidentiality principle, (Guzmán and Villán, 2011, p.77).
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 19
In data collection process, before any interview starts, the
interviewer explains the participants on the rules governing the
statistical confidentiality, as to construct an informed consent
of the participants. A summary review of the National
Statistical System in Mozambique ( SEN, 1996), Law n.º 7/96, is
given to participants, that consist on its article 10, on
transparency, that postulates the rights of the informants or
interviewees to be given the legal basis, the objectives and
measures to ensure confidentiality and the exclusive use of the
information for research purpose. The article 14, gives
the rules to ensure confidentiality, that are: all personal
information are treated as confidential, they cannot be
incorporated in any publication nor to be made available to
others; none of official authorities can mandate the detailed
verification of conformity; personal details of participants
cannot be displayed; individual information of public and private
entities cannot be displayed except when there is priori consent
from referred entities, all collected data are ethical secret.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 20
The interviewer gives a comprehensive understanding of the
research problem, its objectives and expected result which is
critical to build an informed consent of the participants.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 21
References
Brause, R. S. (2012). Writing your doctoral dissertation:
invisible rules for success. London and New York: Taylor &
Francis Group.
Creswell, J. W. and Clark, V. P. (2007). Designing and
Conducting Mixed Methods Research. California. Sage
Publications.
Descombe, M (2003) The Good Research Guide: for small-scale
social research projects. Retrieved from
https://swissmc.blackboard.com.
Gujarati, D. N. (1988). Basic Econometrics- Singapore, McGraw Hill
International Co.
Guzmán, P. M. and Villán, I. (2011). Ethics, laws and practices
dealing with the Protection of confidentiality of
statistical data: Some experiences from Spain. Statistical Journal
of the IAOS 27(10), 77–85.
I n c o m e R e s p o n s e O f C a s h e w N u t s | 22
Institute of Cashew Promotion (INCAJU, 1999). Master Plan for
Cashew. Retrieved from
http://elearning.trree.org/pluginfile.php/633/mod
Meadows, K. A. (2003). So You Want to do Research? 4: An
Introduction to Quantitative Methods. British Journal of Community
Nursing, 8(11).
República De Moçambique Lei N. º 7/96 (1996). Lei De Bases
Do Sistema Estatístico Nacional. Retrieved from
http://elearning.trree.org/pluginfile.php/633/mod
Sun, T. (2011).Understanding the rational of relationship between
self constructs and leadership behaviors as a function of
generation. Retrieved from https://swissmc.blackboard.com.