2BS Forum on Transatlantic Affairs

2012

2BS (TO BE SECURE) FORUM 2012BUDVA

MONTENEGROJune 4 - 6, 2012

“Security Challenges – Chicago Summit: What can the Western Balkans offer?”

www.2bs.me

S U M M A R Y

2BS FORUM SUMMARY2012

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CONTENTS

ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

WELCOME MESSAGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

NIGHT-OWL SESSION: “COMBATING ORGANIZED CRIME AND CORRUPTION

– THE OLD AND NEW HIGHWAYS” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

OFFICIAL OPENING: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

PANEL DISCUSSION I: NATO’S SMART DEFENSE

– HOW TO GET MORE SECURITY WITH FEWER RESOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

PANEL DISCUSSION II: THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING AND WIDER

INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS [UNITED STATES, RUSSIA, EUROPEAN RESPONSES] . . . . . . . . . . 14

PANEL DISCUSSION III: EUROPE CONFRONTING NEW CHALLENGES IN ITS

FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY FOLLOWING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

PANEL DISCUSSION IV: THE ROLE AND EMPLOYMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES

IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

PANEL DISCUSSION V: U .S . FOREIGN POLICY TAKING A NEW SHAPE:

IS THIS NEW AMERICAN ISOLATIONISM OR SOMETHING ELSE? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

PANEL DISCUSSION VI: THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNATIONAL ADMINISTRATION:

COMPARING THE EXPERIENCES OF BOSNIA, KOSOVO, IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

PANEL DISUCSSION VII: THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST . . . . . . . . . 20

CLOSING REMARKS AND SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

2BS FORUM SUMMARY 2012

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ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO

The Atlantic Council of Montenegro was founded in 2006 and since then has been a preeminent in-stitution devoted to promoting Euro-Atlantic values and international security . The Atlantic Council of Montenegro was admitted into membership of the Atlantic Treaty Association at the General Assem-bly held in Athens in 2006 .Since we are facing a turning point in our history, the Atlantic Council provides an essential forum for navigating effective shifts in political and security-related influences . The Atlantic Council established the 2BS Forum as a leading security forum in the region, with its main purpose to become one of the main brainstorming events on the international scene . The Atlantic Council promotes constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the international challenges of the 21st cen-tury .The Atlantic Council stimulates dialogue and discussion about critical international issues with a view to enriching public debate and promoting consensus on appropriate responses in government, the corporate and non-profit sectors, and the media in Montenegro and among leaders in Europe and the USA .At the same time, important contributions by the Atlantic Council include identifying and shaping re-sponses to major issues facing NATO and transatlantic relations as well as building consensus among political parties towards NATO and Euro-Atlantic integration .The Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) is definitely a very important pillar of the Atlantic Council, with its young members who participate in many activities in the country and abroad, including vari-ous visits to relevant institutions, meetings with ambassadors, attending schools and seminars, and participating in international conferences as well as NATO summits .


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WELCOME MESSAGES

Mr. Savo Kentera

President of the Atlantic Council of Montenegro

Dear friends and colleagues,

The second 2BS Forum is ahead of us. Some of you were with us last year when we organized the 2BS Forum for the first time. At that time, our goal was for the 2BS Forum to be a landmark gathering in Montenegro as well as an internationally recognized event. I believe that we are on the right path to attaining that goal. However, in order to reach this goal, it will take a lot of work and faith above all. Hard work is necessary so that the 2BS Forum will be pleas-antly remembered by all participants, both as re-gards the quality of panel discussions and pan-elists selected carefully and in consultation with our partners, as well as in terms of the organiza-tion, which is critical for the successful running of any event. For that reason, in order to give meaning to con-crete work, we have to believe in what we do. Only when we truly believe in certain goals and ideals set before us, can we speak of the possi-bilities of attaining goals. I believe that the 2BS Forum offers even higher quality discussions and panels this year, taking into account the entire set of circumstances behind us, as well as the fact that some two weeks ago the NATO summit was held in Chicago, at which the topics which are to be the subject of discussion in the second 2BS Fo-rum were also reviewed. I believe that this year’s Forum will serve as a good and constructive platform for some of the most important topics facing us in the area of na-tional security. In addition, we will see what the Western Balkans can offer in a more global sense. We are preserving the combination of theory and practice, and I think this combination will be even more evident this year, through the shar-ing of differing opinions and experiences from among our official dignitaries and members of the academic world. I wish you a very pleasant stay and constructive discussion during your stay in Montenegro.

Dr. Igor Lukšić

Prime Minister of Montenegro

Distinguished guests, participants of the 2BS Forum: It is my great pleasure to welcome you to this year’s Forum. I believe this will be an excellent opportunity to discuss current security issues, latest political developments, as well as the challenges of the global economic and finan-cial crisis. This is a very timely debate, especially given that only weeks ago a NATO summit was held in Chicago, where most of these topics fea-tured on the agenda. The nature of security threats in today’s world is changing. Conventional conflicts are now less of a risk to stability, whereas terrorism, cyber at-tacks, energy security, economic and financial problems have become the rising challenges of the new era. On their way towards the EU and the North Atlantic community, the countries of the West-ern Balkans must be aware of these issues. We should work on strengthening our national capacities, in order to make ourselves ready to take our share of responsibility in responding adequately to these challenges that we all have in common. We should also work on further developing regional and global cooperation, along with our NATO and EU partners. Montenegro is fully determined to be a con-structive partner in this endeavor. As our par-ticipation in the ISAF Mission in Afghanistan has well demonstrated, although small in size, Montenegro can be a reliable partner in build-ing peace and stability even on a global level. We are convinced that by doing so we contrib-ute to a better life for people across the globe, as well as to the promotion of the core values of humanity and democracy. I assure you that Montenegro will remain committed to this no-ble cause. I wish you all a successful and fruitful debate and a pleasant stay in Montenegro.


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INTRODUCTION

We are very proud to announce that this year’s 2BS Forum was very impressive and well attended . The number and variety of participants at the second 2BS Forum has surpassed our expectations . The number of policy decision makers, senior officials, defense ministers, ambas-sadors, senior diplomats, experts and analysts, and a combined audi-ence of over 350 guests say much about the significance of this event in both quality and quantity .Under the title “SECURITY CHALLENGES - CHICAGO SUMMIT: WHAT CAN THE WESTERN BALKANS OFFER?” the second 2BS Forum ad-dressed some of the major issues of international relations and secu-rity . The organizers’ goal was to discuss global issues with regard to the lessons learned in the Balkans, and how these lessons can help to solve the world’s main problems . The subject matter of the conference was wide-ranging . Two weeks af-ter the NATO Chicago Summit, the 2BS Forum provided the political and expert elite with the perfect platform to engage in open discus-sions about the key issues that were addressed at the summit in Chi-cago . This naturally led to broader discussion on the issues of: regional security, smart defense, the Arab Spring and its implications, the on-going crisis in the European Union, the role and employment of the armed forces in emergency management, U .S . foreign policy and the future security environment in the Middle East, etc .


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NIGHT-OWL SESSION: “COMBATING ORGANIZED CRIME AND CORRUPTION – THE OLD AND NEW HIGHWAYS”

It has become customary with the 2BS Forum to start with evening informal sessions in a relaxed atmo-sphere held under Chatham House Rules that allows discussants to hold a vigorous and open debate . The informal atmosphere and served refreshments guarantee the interactivity of the sessions .This year’s night-owl session dealt with the issue of organized crime and corruption . Participants of this session were Mr. Božidar Vuksanović, Director of the Police Directorate of Montenegro, Mr. Predrag Mitrović, Director of the Administration for the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financ-ing of Montenegro, Mrs. Đurđina Nina Ivanović, Special Prosecutor for Organized Crime of Montene-gro, and Mr. Jim Sweeting, ICITAP Advisor for Bosnia and Herzegovina .


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What was designated formally as “Night-Owl Session: Combating organized crime and corruption – the old and new highways” kicked off with remarks by moderator H.E. Dr. Petar Turčinović, Ambas-sador of the Republic of Croatia to Montenegro . Mrs . Ivanović, Mr . Mitrović and Mr . Vuksanović, follow-ing on from H .E . Turčinović introductory remarks, started out by emphasizing that Montenegro has a problem with organized crime and corruption, but one that is shared by the whole region, as well as the whole world . They stressed the importance of strengthening the system in order to deal with these issues . Adopting legislation concerning this matter is very important, but implementation of laws is imperative when it comes to organized crime and corruption . Mr . Sweeting focused on his practical experience in this field, having been an undercover U .S . agent for 23 years in South America, the USA and Canada . He stressed the fact that the fight against organized crime and corruption is a long-term process which needs years in order to get on top of organized crime networks .


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OFFICIAL OPENING:

Mr . Savo Kentera, President of the Atlantic Council of Montenegro – the organization which runs 2BS FORUM – welcomed the participants . In his speech Mr . Kentera said that Montenegro had received an encouraging message at the NATO Summit in Chicago, to continue with reforms in order to become a member of NATO as soon as possible . According to Mr . Kentera’s words this message is encouraging but also very binding, and represents a challenge for Montenegro to continue faster, more efficiently and seriously with its reforms, especially in the area of the rule of law, combating organized crime and corruption, as well as security sector reform . Essential reforms are the only key to success, and with concrete action we have to show that we are ready and determined to fully implement the law, Mr . Kentera said . Montenegro must clearly and unambiguously make clear to everyone that it is ready and willing to carry out these reforms in order to receive an invitation for membership of NATO at the forthcoming NATO Summit, Mr . Kentera concluded .

2BS Forum partners spoke at the official opening of the conference . Mr . Lazar Rađenović, Mayor of Budva stressed that joining the NATO family means security and preservation of all the natural re-sources that Montenegro has . He said that Budva has more than 50 percent of the total amount of tourism turnover in Montenegro and that more than 1 million tourists visit Budva every year, 90 per-cent of whom are foreign participants . Bearing all this in mind, Mr . Rađenović said that joining NATO is very important for our country and his town . The U .S . Embassy in Podgorica has been a true partner of the Atlantic Council of Montenegro, as well as of the 2BS Forum throughout the years . H .E . Mrs . Sue K . Brown, the U .S . Ambassador to Montenegro said that their goal is to see Montenegro fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic institutions . Ambassador Brown said that Montenegro’s 5th contingent of 39


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troops is currently serving shoulder to shoulder with other allies in Afghanistan . She stressed that this commitment is highly valued by NATO member states and shows that each country no matter of its size has an important role to play in global peace-keeping and security missions .

SUE K. BROWN: THE U.S. STRONGLY BELIEVES THAT THE PROGRESS OF MONTE-NEGRO AND ITS NEIGHBORS TOWARDS THE EU AND NATO MEMBERSHIP BRINGS SECURITY TO THE REGION.

H .E . Mr . Gabor Iklody, Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges emphasized that the term Western Balkans no longer evokes the idea of crisis and conflict, but of opportunity and opti-mism .

IKLODY: THE JOURNEY OF THIS REGION IS ABOUT TO BE COMPLETED.

He said that he sees three things that this region can offer to global security networks: 1) solidarity; 2) capabilities; and 3) vision . Solidarity offered by allies, but also by partner countries, is what keeps NATO alive . He said that when it comes to solidarity it is not the size of a country or the size of its military forces that matters . According to his words, what counts is that we are sharing risks and burdens with likeminded countries and contributing to common efforts . Also, the ambassador tackled the topic of smart defense and how nowadays economic challenges and defense budgets are exposed to severe pressure, even cuts, which is a phenomenon that realistically is not about to change any time soon . Austerity will force us to make the best of the limited resources that we have at our disposal . Smart de-fense, according to his words, is an approach that requires thinking about capabilities differently . The region of South East Europe can be a real promoter of this concept . According to the ambassador, the reason why this is so is because smaller countries are mentally better prepared to think smart than the larger ones . The larger countries will always try to retain the full spectrum of capabilities . For them pool-ing and sharing is the second-best option which they only go for when they really see no alternative . By contrast, smaller countries know that they cannot have it all . They know that they must specialize and concentrate on some selected capabilities instead of the full spectrum . Small countries know that through multinational solutions they can achieve greater effectiveness for a more affordable price . The ambassador said that NATO should be perceived as an integration force . This means integration into a unique transatlantic family that is ready to include new democracies throughout Europe .The Montenegrin Prime Minister Dr . Igor Lukšić, opened the conference . Prime Minister Lukšić started with a powerful statement of his government’s commitment to share European and Euro-Atlantic val-ues . He reminded the audience that the Chicago Summit’s Declaration confirms NATO’s Open Door Policy which encourages Montenegro to continue with the activities towards full membership in the Alliance .

LUKŠIĆ: THE EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION PROCESS IS A SAFE WAY TOWARDS LONGTERM STABILITY AND PEACE OF THIS REGION.

“Bearing in mind our previous experience, this region requires a certain level of attention . It should not be denied that today’s situation is much better compared to the period 10 to 15 years ago . Nev-ertheless, this does not mean that all the problems are resolved . For this reason, Montenegro strongly supports Bosnia and Herzegovina’s efforts to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP), renewal of dia-

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logue between Belgrade and Prishtina, encouragement to eliminate all barriers and issues regarding Macedonian membership of NATO, because this is the only way to contribute to each other’s security,” said the Montenegrin prime minister .Among many issues addressed in a warmly received speech, Dr . Lukšić stressed the importance of the ISAF and other international security missions . According to his words, the ISAF mission in Afghani-stan, embracing 50 countries with the same mission, is an example of a cooperative approach which can impact the world’s security and stability . Among other countries involved in Afghanistan there are also Western Balkan countries – Montenegro and its neighbors Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Macedonia .

LUKŠIĆ: OUR PARTICIPATION IN THE MISSIONS AROUND THE WORLD IS PROOF THAT WE ARE ACTIVE CONTRIBUTORS IN THE WORLD WE LIVE IN.

“At the NATO Summit held this year in Chicago, Montenegro fully supported the transition process in Afghanistan . As such, we are committed to continuing to contribute to the mission in Afghanistan even after 2014 during the transition decade, when the focus will be on sustainable stability, economic recovery and further strengthening of democratic values and institutions” said Prime Minister Lukšić .The Montenegrin prime minister resolutely underlined his full commitment to strengthening institu-tions and democratic values in times of financial and economic crisis . The Smart Defense Concept offers the opportunity to develop these capabilities and keep their efficiency despite budgetary con-straints . At the end, the prime minister stressed that Montenegro, together with Western Balkan countries, indisputably plays a role in coping with modern security challenges, and makes a contribution to sta-bility at an international level . Contributing to the Alliance’s activities at the international level through mutual cooperation we are strengthening mutual trust and stability in the region, thus we are building a better and safer future – a future in which everyone wins .

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PANEL DISCUSSION I: NATO’S SMART DEFENSE – HOW TO GET MORE SECURITY WITH FEWER RESOURCES

It was therefore appropriate that the first session of the Forum should deal directly with NATO and specifically with the most current issue of “Smart Defense” .Moderated by Dr . Amadeo Watkins, the panel comprised of General Mieczyslaw Bieniek, Deputy Su-preme Allied Commander Transformation; H .E . Mr . Aleš Hojs, Minister of Defense of the Republic of Slo-venia; Mr . Mirko Okolić, Deputy Minister of Defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina; Dr . Dragan Lozančić, Assistant Minister of Defense of the Republic of Croatia; Col . Dr . Holger Bahle, International Staff - De-fense Policy and Planning, Smart Defense, NATO HQ; and Dr . Julian Lindley-French, Eisenhower Profes-sor of Defense Strategy at the Netherlands Defense Academy, Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States, Senior Associate Fellow of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom .General Bieniek and Minister Hojs opened proceedings with keynote speeches . The general reminded the audience that “Balancing security needs and available resources is an age-old problem, and one that will always persist . But, there are ways that we might improve the balance: ways that we can improve the benefits achieved from every Euro or Dollar spent on security . This is the focus of Smart Defence” .

GEN. BIENIEK: WE FOCUS ON BUILDING SMART DEFENCE INITIATIVES THAT WILL BENEFIT ALLIES’ ABILITY TO DELIVER BOTH THEIR NATIONAL AND NATO SECU-RITY REQUIREMENTS.

General Bieniek said that Smart Defense is an initiative that reflects Alliance solidarity and builds on multinational approaches and innovative solutions to capability delivery and sustainment . It is com-plemented by the Connected Forces initiative which aims to ensure that Allies continue to develop and retain the ability to work effectively together . These two initiatives complement on-going efforts such as the Lisbon Package or the various NATO reforms initiatives .The general highlighted that “as the NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP) remains NATO’s primary means to identify and prioritize the capabilities needed for the future and to promote their develop-ment and acquisition, it is the right place to institutionalize a Smart Defense mindset, provided that the process is enhanced in order to be more relevant to nations, more usable and more responsive to changing circumstances” .

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The general said that we need to achieve tangible results and to continue to sustain the momentum . “Our objective is for NDPP requirements to increasingly drive multinational initiatives that will deliver improved operational effectiveness, economies of scale and closer connections between our forces” . Closing his remarks, the general reminded the audience of the Chicago Summit where NATO Heads of State and Governments had just agreed to embrace a new culture of cooperation, with Smart Defense at the heart of the new approach . General quoted Secretary General Rasmussen, “Smart Defense is a vital principle . Allies have agreed to make it the new way NATO does business and we are putting it into practice . In Chicago, the Allies approved a robust package of more than 20 multinational projects, to provide the capabilities we need at a price we can afford .” The Chicago Summit was not an end; it is not the culmination of our efforts, but rather a key milestone for validation of the work that we have embarked upon – the general concluded . Minister Hojs from Slovenia in his keynote remarks said that a multinational approach is not something new or unknown for Slovenia . Even before membership of NATO and the EU, Slovenia had gained valu-able experience on multinational formulations and cooperation with their participation in the mul-tinational land forces, together with Italy and Norway . The minister underlined several international projects and initiatives where Slovenia had been participating since joining NATO: the Strategic Air Capability, Strategic Airlift Interim Solution, Alliance Ground Surveillance Project, and helicopter train-ing through ILA, etc . The minister underlined these projects because Slovenia had gained valuable experience and knowledge participating in them .

HOJS: BEING A RELATIVELY SMALL COUNTRY WITH LIMITTED POSSIBILITIES IT IS QUITE NATURAL FOR US TO RELY ON COOPERATION WITH OUR ALLIES AND PART-NERS. SLOVENIA IS OPEN TO ALL LEVELS OF MULTILATERAL, REGIONAL AND BI-LATERERAL COOPERATION WITHIN NATO, THE EU AND REGIONAL INITIATIVES.

Minister Hojs said that “when speaking about different forums our view is that the most valuable ways of multinational cooperation proved to be those of regional cooperation representing smaller groups of likeminded states who also share geographical proximity .

HOJS: THE WESTERN BALKANS IS FOR SLOVENIA A REGION WHERE WE HAVE A STRONG INTEREST.

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PANEL DISCUSSION II: THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING AND WIDER INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS [UNITED STATES, RUSSIA, EUROPEAN RESPONSES]

The second panel discussion was moderated by Prof . Sharyl Cross from the College of International and Security Studies, George C . Marshall European Center for Security Studies . The panel was com-prised of Dr . Karl A . Lamers, President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and Deputy Chair of the De-fense Committee of the German Bundestag, Dr . Mostafa Elwi Saif, professor of political science, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University in Egypt, and Dr . Karin Kneissl who is a journalist, lecturer and analyst from Austria .This panel was dedicated to one of the most current issues of today’s international security which is the Arab Spring and its aftermath . Some of the issues discussed were the role of social media in situations of unrest and upheaval which has engulfed the region:– in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, how significant are generational influences and what does this portend for the future?; does the potential exist for these tensions to spread beyond the region of Central Asia, Caucasus and Russia? The panelists spoke as well about the demonstrations that took place in Russia during the 2011-2012 election periods and whether this situation can be compared with the current wave of political unrest in the Middle East . Last but not least is the influence of external factors such as the U .S ., Russia and other European na-tions on the circumstances which affected the unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa .


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PANEL DISCUSSION III: EUROPE CONFRONTING NEW CHALLENGES IN ITS FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY FOL-LOWING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

This panel discussion was moderated by Dr . Radomir Milašinović, professor at the Faculty of Security Studies of the University of Belgrade . The panelists in this panel discussion were: Dr . Milica Pejanović-Đurišić, Minister of Defense of Montenegro, Dr . Tanja Miščević, State Secretary in the Ministry of De-fense of the Republic of Serbia, Dr . Valbona Zeneli, professor, The College of International and Security Studies, Marshall Center in Germany, Dr . Marios Efthymiopoulos, professor, SAIS/John Hopkins Strat-egy International and, Dr . Mitat Celikpala, professor, Kadir Has University, Turkey .The panelists discussed the focus issue which is occupying the European Union, and the world at large . The economic crisis is exposing issues in the EU, specifically between members of the Euro zone and non-members . All panelists agreed that a regional approach is very important in dealing with problems in these times of austerity . Our countries are too small to cope with these problems alone, so we need to integrate and work together in order to overcome the economic crisis . Another issue that was discussed is how energy concerns play into the issue of stability in the EU . For example, the fallout from the Fuku-shima nuclear reactor meltdown resulted in Germany revising its energy policy . The main question of this panel discussion was: how does all of this affect security? How does the current economic crisis af-fect stability in Europe and the rest of the world? The answer and common conclusion of the panelists was that we have to work together, to combine our resources, knowledge, etc ., and to share tasks and burdens in order to overcome the current situation . To that end, the panelists tackled the issue of “smart defense” and how this concept will be useful for small countries in time of austerity and beyond .


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PANEL DISCUSSION IV: THE ROLE AND EMPLOYMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

The final panel discussion of the second day of the Forum marked participation and remarks from three chiefs of defense: VADM Dragan Samardžić, Chief of Defense of the Montenegrin Armed Forces, LTG Ljubiša DIKOVIĆ, Chief of Defense of the Serbian Armed Forces and Maj . Gen . Gorančo Koteski, Chief of Defense of the Macedonian Armed Forces . This session was moderated by Dr . Zoran Dragišić, professor at the Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, Serbia . The panelists exchanged experiences on the organization and role of the armed forces in emergency situations reminding the audience of the disasters that have befallen countries in the region in the past years (fires, floods and heavy snowfalls) . The chiefs of defense emphasized the fact that all armies in the world, apart from conventional military tasks, are engaged more with help in emergency situations caused by natural disasters . Vice Admiral Samardžić stressed that involvement in emergency situations is not a primary military mission, but when it is necessary to engage military forces in emergency situ-ations everyone expects the military to have the capability to do that . The vice admiral noted that for Montenegro as a coastal country with a tourist area, it is very important to develop an efficient regional response to possible environmental incidents at sea and earthquakes . General Diković pointed out the importance of regional cooperation in this field, bearing in mind that no state has enough capacity to deal with these issues on its own . General Koteski presented Macedonia’s experiences in this field and fully supported a regional approach and wise use of available resources . The collocutors also agreed that within the Smart Defense Concept they should make the best use of the potential of the region for training, and in that sense they praised the results of the work of the Nuclear Biological Chemical Defense Training Center in Kruševac, the Media Center in Skopje and training in winter conditions in Montenegro .

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PANEL DISCUSSION V: U.S. FOREIGN POLICY TAKING A NEW SHAPE: IS THIS NEW AMERICAN ISOLATIONISM OR SOMETHING ELSE?

The final day of the 2BS FORUM 2012 began with discussion of a possible “about-turn in U .S . foreign policy” . The panel discussion was moderated by Oliver Rolofs, press spokesperson of the Munich Se-curity Conference . The panelists were Rt . Hon . Dr . Liam Fox, Member of Parliament for North Som-erset and former Secretary of State for Defense of the UK, Mr . Lanny J . Davis, who is a lawyer, au-thor, commentator, strategist, and Former Special Advisor to President Clinton, Ambassador Nebojša Kaluđerović, State Secretary for Political Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Montenegro, H .E . Dr . Istvan Gyarmati, professor and President of the Center for Democracy Public Foundation, International Centre for Democratic Transition and Tom Lantos Institute, and Dr . Radovan Vukadinović, professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Zagreb, President of the Atlantic Council of Croatia, and Vice-President of the Atlantic Treaty Association .In his opening remarks, Dr . Fox raised the prospect that with continuing security threats on Europe's borders, not least in the Balkans, Europeans can no longer allow themselves the luxury of a free ride on the back of America's increasingly hard-pressed taxpayers . “Even allowing for the predicable economic tragedy that is the Euro, democratic nations must face the fact that national security, the protection of their people, is the first duty of government” . Dr . Fox said that the most important lesson to take from the American reorientation is the need for new global thinking on security . “We live in a sensitive, inter-connected and increasingly interdependent global economy . Problems in one part can quickly spread to others” . According to his words we need to develop a much more flexible, multileveled approach to our security needs, ever aware of the multiplicity of threats to our well being, prepared for a changing array of partners to deal with different problems in different parts of the globe .

FOX: THE COMPLETE ABSENCE OF GERMANY, FOR EXAMPLE, DIPLOMATICALLY AND MILITARILY FROM NATO EFFORTS IN LIBYA SHOW US HOW DANGEROUS IT WOULD BE TO PLACE ALL OUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET.

However, Dr . Fox stressed the fact that the UK and others have needed to rely on the U .S ., but the U .S . cannot forget that its strategic horizons too are being limited by the current economic situation . At the end he said that whichever political party wins the next US election will need to take stock of the fact that debt is a national security issue and America’s strategic vision cannot defy the economic laws that ultimately will determine all our places in the World Order .

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FOX: IT IS NOT ANY EXAGGERATION TO SAY THAT SUCCESS IN LIBYA WOULD HAVE BEEN IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT U.S. HARDWARE DESPITE THE POLITI-CAL IMPETUS COMING FROM COUNTRIES SUCH AS BRITAIN AND FRANCE.

Another opening remark for this panel discussion was provided by Mr . Lanny Davis . Mr . Davis spoke about U .S . history and how an about-turn from isolationism towards internationalism had happened in the U .S . However, the focus of his speech was on the question of where America is today . This issue he explained through the coming U .S . Presidential Elections in 2012 . Mr . Davis said that the Democrat President Barack Obama and Republican former Governor Mitt Romney have more in common than they have differences – both support free trade vs . protectionism; both support continued vigilance in the war on terror and continued commitment to avoiding a return of terrorists to Afghanistan; and both are small “d” Democrats who, like Presidents Bill Clinton and George W . Bush, place a high pre-mium on supporting emerging democracies and democratic values . Mr . Davis concluded that both are committed to an America engaged with the world – rejecting a return to inward-looking isolationism that was so much a part of its history for the first two centuries of its existence .

DAVIS: DESPITE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES ON DOMESTIC ISSUES FACING AMERICA, THERE IS SURPRISING COMMONALITY BETWEEN PRESIDENT OBAMA AND MR. ROMNEY ON THE BASIC ISSUES OF TRADE, ANTI-TERRORISM, AND EN-GAGEMENT WITH DEMOCRACIES AROUND THE WORLD. AND GOOD NEWS FOR THE WORLD: REGARDLESS OF WHO IS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN NOVEMBER, AMER-ICA WILL REMAIN INTERNATIONALLY ENGAGED AND COMMITTED TO OPEN TRADE, PEACE AND PROSPERITY AROUND THE WORLD.

Dr . Gyarmati had a very interesting opening remark . He said that America is leaving Europe in some re-spects, but that Europeans should be happy for two reasons . The first reason is the fact that America is no longer needed here to keep peace and stability, and the second reason that this is good is because America is defending its interests in the Pacific which are also European interests and Europeans are not doing it . He said that Europeans should think how they can support this action .

GYARMATI: TODAY IS NOT ABOUT EUROPE, IT IS ABOUT WHAT WE CAN DO TO-GETHER IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD.

Professor Vukadinović said that two-thirds of U .S . citizens are against increasing American involve-ment in the world, and also his conclusion is that the U .S . is shifting towards the Pacific because of the US–China partnership .

VUKADINOVIĆ: U.S. IS MAKING A “SOFT LANDING” – A PROJECTION OF OBAMA’S ADMINISTRATION – WHICH MEANS THAT AMERICA COULD COME A LITTLE BIT DOWN FROM THE UNIPOLAR LEADERSHIP POSITION.

Professor Vukadinović stated that U .S .–European cooperation is now much more needed and these ties are very hard to break and end . At the end of his opening remarks, the professor referred to rela-tions between the Western Balkans and the U .S . He said that for us (the Western Balkan countries) it is very important to see U .S . interests and their support towards the EU and NATO integration processes . For the Western Balkans this is very important because it is the engine to further reforms to become a member .

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PANEL DISCUSSION VI: THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNATIONAL ADMINISTRATION: COMPARING THE EXPERIENCES OF BOSNIA, KOSOVO, IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN

This session was moderated by Dr . Radovan Vukadinović, professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Zagreb, President of the Atlantic Council of Croatia, and Vice-President of the Atlantic Treaty Asso-ciation . The three panelists were Mr . Robert Sorenson, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG), UNMIK, Dr . Selmo Cikotić, dean and professor, School of Government, American Uni-versity in Bosnia and Herzegovina and former Minister of Defense of Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Fred Krawchuk, Retired Special Forces Colonel, U .S . Army .Professor Cikotić spoke about past and current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina . He said that three segments, the comprehensive security concept of OSCE, the cooperative security concept of the EU, and the connective security concept of NATO are good as long as all participants of the game comply with the rules . Once some of the participants or actors on the ground are not complying with the rules of the game, neither of these organizations will have effective instruments or tools to deal with the consequences of that situation . NATO is the only institution that has tough instruments for tough situ-ations . He also mentioned that geographical and fiscal distance is irrelevant nowadays . The Western Balkans has learned a lot of painful lessons but we should hope that we all understand that the past is behind us and that we cannot change it but we can influence the future . Professor Cikotić also agreed with Professor Zeneli from the previous day’s panel discussion that we are individually all too small to be able to participate in international affairs alone .

CIKOTIĆ: IF WE JOIN TOGETHER WITHIN THE REGION WE COULD BE NOT A BUR-DEN FOR EUROPE BUT A CHANCE FOR EUROPE.

Colonel Krawchuk gave a complete overview of the international task force’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and the lessons learned during the past years . Colonel Krawchuk had the opportunity to support KFOR and SFOR missions, so he tried to answer questions on how we connect cooperation and how we connect collaboration in these very complex environments; how we communicate with the Afghan people, and how we negotiate with religious leaders .Mr . Danko Aleksić asked Prof . Cikotić what he thought about the issue of whether it is a paradox that a country which is a user of security is also trying to provide security (thinking about Bosnia and Her-zegovina)? Prof . Cikotić answered that since 2009 the armed forces of Bosnia & Herzegovina had taken over all military functions from EUFOR, and they had created one single ministry of defense and one single military force . This showed their capacity to contribute to peacekeeping missions at the highest levels . Prof . Cikotic said that more we (Bosnia and Herzegovina) move towards the side of trouble-solving and distance ourselves from trouble-making the better it will be for all of us .

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PANEL DISUCSSION VII: THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The final session looked at the issues of U .S . – ISRAELI – IRANIAN relations . It was moderated by Dr . Amadeo Watkins . The panel was comprised of H .E . Mr . Yossef Levy, Israeli Ambassador in Belgrade, Dr . James Anderson, professor at the College of International and Security Studies, George C . Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Germany, Dr . Dragan Simeunović, professor at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Belgrade, and Dr . Darko Trifunović, research fellow and lecturer at the Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, and speaker at the International Institute for Coun-ter-Terrorism Institute from Herzliya, Israel .

This session was opened with keynote remarks from the Israeli ambassador in Belgrade, H .E . Yossef Levy . The ambassador said that if we look at the map, Israel and Iran should not be enemies at all . These two countries do not have a common border . He said that Israel had never attacked Iran, they do not have anything against Iranian history, their place in the international community, etc . Ambassador Levy reminded the audience about the dramatic and severe change of power in Iran in the winter of 1979 when the new regime came into the power . That regime noted that its goal is the destruction of the State of Israel .

LEVY: THE WORST SCENARIO FOR US IS THAT IRANIANS WILL HAVE AN ATOMIC BOMB! THE LESS BAD SCENARIO FOR US WILL BE ESCALATION IN ORDER TO PRE-VENT IT. THE MOST HORRIFIC SCENARIO FOR US IS THAT AT THE END OF THE DAY IRANIANS WILL HAVE A BOMB.

The ambassador reminded the audience of the reasons for bad relations between these two countries . He said that they are very much worried and concerned not only because Iran decided to be an en-emy of the Jewish state of Israel, they are also worried because Iran is assisting and helping terrorist organizations Hezbollah in South Lebanon and Hamas, as well as two proxy organizations which are

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headed and instructed by Iran and their target is not to minimize Israel but to fight Israel . The ambas-sador stated that for the Iranian regime the problem is not the size of Israel, but the very existence of Israel . They are against the existence of Israel whatever size or borders it will have . The ambassador said that the Iranian nuclear potential is a real threat . Also he stressed that there is some optimism in last week’s news with Iranians showing a bit of understanding that their game must be changed . However, according to his words, the Israeli people are skeptical, they do not believe them .The ambassador stressed the importance of action by the whole international community which should act together and impose very hard sanctions on the Iranian regime, its economy and banking system . Europe should be more involved in this issue . He asked which European country has cut all im-port and sales to Iran, but he could not recall any names . He said that some members of the European Community had diminished their economic dialogue with Iran which is very good but according to his words that is not enough .The moderator raised the question for Dr . Anderson of whether this is really an existential issue for the State of Israel or a political one . Dr . Anderson agreed that in the case of Israel this is an existential issue . Also, Anderson pointed out that this issue is important for other players including Europe, the U .S ., as well as for the rest of the globe .Professor Simeunović said that, even though NATO and Israel are not officially allies, they have a lot of common interests . Also Simeunovic pointed out the fact that if Israel initiated war against Iran there is no doubt that the U .S . would join this war, albeit maybe not the same day . According to Dr . Simeunović that is the main problem for Israel, how long the U .S . will wait before getting involved in this war .Professor Trifunovic spoke mostly about the Balkan perspective and Iranian and Saudi influence in this region . He stressed that Palestinians are the main victims in the Middle East, and that several countries are playing games with the destiny of this people .As a conclusion, the participants said that for Israel the ultimate line is that Iran should not get the bomb .

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CLOSING REMARKS AND SUMMARY

After a lively and informative debate, the Forum was closed with ex-pressions of thanks to all the participants as well as the partners and organizers from Savo Kentera, President of the Atlantic Council of Mon-tenegro and Founder of the 2BS Forum .


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