1931093

1131

122

3

ةيالبحوث الزراعمركز -المعمل المركزى للمناخ الزراعى .1 جامعة عين شمس - كلية الزراعة .2 ةيمركز البحوث الزراع - معهد بحوث البساتين .3

11.91

10.11

9.14.5

3.5.5

9.9

.150.9

4.11.1

597....7

931

33..1

45714310

.19.4

14.1

.3.1

1132

7.1.

7374143

3 3.1.9

9.7.7

3100

3.33.7

9.71

9950.4

.943

1090

5.

44.4

1133 واخرون

71.37

7..799.1...9..9..

(1)

.الجهاز المركزى للتعبئة العامة واإلحصاء

1134

(Analysis of Variance)F

Objective Function

(1)

FAO. August, 2009. "Description of Agro-ecological Ecosystems of the Egyptian Agriculture,

Project UNJP/EGY/022, Climate change risk management in Egypt, Cairo, Egypt. (2)

2112 )3)

Hassan et al.2005. Optimum Cropping Pattern, Production and Income Level/ J. Agri. Soc. Sci., Vol.

1, No. 1.

1135 واخرون

Water Availability Minimization

9

1091

1136

n

i

iiyt XWMin1

w

Subject to the following constraints

Winter land availability

iij

n

i

ij KLXa 1

Summer and Nili land availability

iij

n

i

ij SLXa 1

Water availability

WXW ij

n

i

ij 1

Maximum Area constraint

jij

n

i

ij MAXXa 1

Minimum Area constraint

jij

n

i

ij MinXa 1

Non-negativity constraint

0ijX

:

WtObjective Function

Wiyi

Xii

Constraints

1137 واخرون

100.1090

379.19

6381957.4.1

74894921090

33979.

718360177.39

23750191090

379.19

9.4.447.7.1.

18832101090

379710

1090.49..

1138

139991

.0301017..

.973.11090

94

100.1090

94

9

30.1..551..

3..310.41.199.4

3.333.13..15..

1139 واخرون

1..55..19..170..

1

3372141

3009816

11.91

10.119.91

4.5

4.5

10.193

3.50...3

91.3.4

91.033

349..9..

1140

9

33

3

1439.6 1769 2546.6 1487.1 2630.7 3.3

146.4 1523 223 195 297 33.2

155.2 1398 217 183.8 257 18.5

191.6 2285 437.7 133.7 305.5 -30.2

831.9 2963 2464.8 778.5 2306.8 -6.4

249.3 1070 266.7 346.1 370.3 38.9

11.7 1409 16.5 17.3 24.4 48.0

56.3 1927 108.6 32.2 62 -42.8

2.6 1404 3.7 3.9 5.4 48.0

65.5 2237 146.7 52.5 117.5 -19.9

13.2 2237 29.4 7.4 16.5 -43.9

9.7 2237 21.8 5.1 11.4 -47.7

46 2237 103 28.4 63.6 -38.3

22 2237 49.1 15.3 34.3 -30.2

123.2 2237 275.7 80.7 180.5 -34.5

7.9 2237 17.6 5 11.1 -36.9

3372.1 6927.9 3372.16694.10.0

1113.5 7608 8471.2 885.6 6737.3 -20.5

725.4 3479 2523.7 758.9 2640.1 4.6

2.2 3317 7.4 4.9 16.5 121.5

19.72990 59 24.2 72.2 22.3

76.5 4660 356.5 69.5 323.8 -9.2

10.6 2602 27.6 14 36.5 32.5

3.2 8651 27.4 2.8 24.3 -11.5

245.5 3945 968.7 245.2 967.3 -0.1

187.3 3555 665.7 205.2 729.7 9.6

33.7 3555 119.8 44.8 159.2 32.9

21.2 3555 75.5 27.5 97.8 29.6

105 3555 373.1 110.5 392.8 5.3

1141 واخرون

28.9 3555 102.8 34.2 121.7 18.3

19.6 3555 69.8 37.9 134.7 92.9

90 3555 320 130.1 462.7 44.6

121.9 3555 433.3 172.6 613.5 41.6

169.1 2848 481.7 172.1 490 1.7

15.8 3055 48.2 27.1 82.9 72.1

3 3055 9.2 11.1 33.9 270.6

13.3 3055 40.6 25.5 77.9 91.6

4.3 3055 13.3 6.1 18.6 40.1

3009.8 15194.43009 814233.30.0

6381.9 22122 36381.9 20927.40.0

1142

1

337195933719590.00.0

3001.9.3001.9.0.00.0

.3.9147.3.91470.00.03

11.9110.119.914.53

35..31719.74.53

0...0.190.033.5

913.4..91033..349..9..

303.11.14.9..

1303.

11.19..

3

44.14.113.5.0.3

17.43995.5

5.1

5...70.1

10.334.73..5

5

1143 واخرون

1.1131

866085

3

333

1144

5

1.11311.11310.00.0

...0.4...0.40.00.0

9.3.0979.3.0970.00.0

3.150.94.11.1597....7

33311397911...7

30..90..90.00.0

4045.95705.7341.37.9

174.14.1113..9

..15

4..1597...

..7

50..93

55064.1

5705.7

341.3

7.9

5174.

14.1..9

1145 واخرون

4

40.45.74.741..

31.73.

94.9

5.199..15..7

31.93..9..1

.

.09544

.44901

4.57

4.31.9..1

9.4

9.4

.9.093

9.19.033

.4..

4.5

911..3.5

1146

4

333

390.4 1958 764.5 406.9 796.7 4.2

2.9 1531 4.4 5.6 8.6 95.6

4.8 1479 7.2 10.6 15.6 118.2

3.8 1479 5.6 6.1 9 60.3

38.1 2560 97.4 18.8 48.3 -50.5

208.2 3311 689.5 198.4 656.8 -4.7

24.7 1205 29.8 36.3 43.8 46.7

21.4 2161 46.2 24.7 53.3 15.6

15.6 1713 26.7 18.8 32.2 20.4

45 2350 105.8 42.5 99.8 -5.7

3.6 2350 8.4 2.9 6.8 -19.7

5.1 2350 11.9 5 11.7 -2.1

2.6 2350 6.1 2.5 5.8 -4.6

6.5 2350 15.2 4.5 10.6 -30.4

14.9 2350 35 7 16.5 -52.8

3.9 2350 9.1 2.9 6.9 -24.6

10 2350 23.4 8 18.8 -19.6

801.5 1886.2 801.5 1841.2 0.0

491.5 3995 1963.7 492 1965.5 0.1

12.8 3515 45.1 16.9 59.5 32.1

20.6 3854 79.2 28.4 109.4 38.1

16.7 3448 57.5 19.5 67.4 17.2

15.9 5551 88.5 10.2 56.6 -36.0

4.9 3040 15 8.2 24.8 65.9

41 9839 403.3 40.3 397 -1.6

15.9 4429 70.6 9.6 42.6 -39.7

41.8 4178 174.5 35.5 148.1 -15.1

3.8 4178 16 2.4 9.9 -38.2

17.3 4178 72.3 13.1 54.9 -24.1

13 4178 54.2 9.8 40.8 -24.7

9.1 4178 37.9 6.8 28.3 -25.3

11.1 4178 46.2 9 37.6 -18.7

2.9 4178 12.2 2.1 8.7 -28.4

81.4 3208 261 88 282.4 8.2

15.5 3416 52.8 18.3 62.5 18.3

3.6 3416 12.3 6.2 21 71.5

33.5 3416 114.5 35.5 121.2 5.8

2.9 3416 9.8 3.4 11.6 17.7

855.1 3586.5 855.1 3549.8 0.0

1656 6 5472 71656 6 53910.0

1147 واخرون

.

.3317

31.93.5

7

51.75.440.31..7

11..3.115.37.310..

4.330.9

....14..

90.159.999.9

.09544.095440.00.0

.44901.449010.00.0

9.4.4479.4.4470.00.0

345714310.9..19.4

333053145409.4

39.039.090.019.1

4.17..4534911..3.5

331731.999.3.5

1148

.

901.9..

1915.4

7

333

588.1 2425 1426.2 619.2 1501.6 5.3 29.8 1965 58.6 31.7 62.4 6.4

23.4 1942 45.4 28.4 59.1 30.1 4.9 1942 9.6 7.5 14.6 51.6 1.3 2201 2.8 1.9 4.1 45.9 6.9 2097 14.6 13.1 27.5 88.8

27 3190 86.1 13.6 43.3 -49.7 287.2 4162 1195.2 274.2 1141 -4.5 38.3 1580 60.5 48.1 76 25.6 30.5 2775 84.6 15.2 42.1 -50.3 2.8 2205 6.1 3.7 8.1 32.7

45.4 2510 113.9 34.3 81.1 -28.7 1.3 2510 3.2 1 2.5 -21.9 4.2 2510 10.6 1.6 3.9 -63.0 2.9 2510 7.3 2.2 5.5 -24.4 2.9 2510 7.3 1.5 3.7 -49.6 1.3 2510 3.2 1.1 2.7 -15.5

1098.2 3135.2 1098.2 3079.2 0.0 13.1 8980 117.3 0.0028 0.3 -99.8

369.6 4563 1686.3 357.7 1632 -3.2 288.7 4042 1167 318.1 1286 10.2 1.4 4448 6.3 1.7 7.6 21.0

13.6 3977 54 15.9 63.2 17.0 13.46646 89.3 12.7 84.6 -5.2 15.8 3449 54.3 22.3 76.9 41.1

55.2 11939 659.4 41.8 499.5 -24.3 25.6 5050 129.3 23.7 120 -7.3

10.1 6019 60.6 7.7 46.2 -23.7 1.7 6019 10.3 1.1 6.8 -33.9 2.6 6019 15.9 2.2 13 -18.2

3 6019 17.9 2.4 14.1 -20.9 3.6 6019 21.43.2 20.4 -4.8 3 6019 18.3 2.5 14.9 -18.6

8.3 6019 49.9 6.6 39.6 -20.6 62.1 3886 241.2 68.9 267.9 11.1 18.5 4350 80.4 20 86.8 8.0 1.8 4350 7.8 2.1 9 15.4 1.4 4350 6.1 1.7 7.3 19.2

912.5 4493.2 912.5 4296.1 0.0

2010.7 7628.4 2010.7 7375.70.0

1149 واخرون

.

.

901.9..

1915.4

7..1

7.37

143.913.3

3.3

901.9..901.9..0.00.0

1915.41915.40.00.0

1090.491090.490.00.0

37.1.7374143.913.3

337153...91.3.3

30.7.0.750.011..

4770 45.13094.1

1.70 17109404.1

1150

.0.753

1..0.7.3

.4.77

4.57

3094.1

.1.07

17104.1

1

99.15..539.1

..791

91..

..134.993..9

51.737.143..

90

13534.

3..731

1151 واخرون

3.1

3..3.7.14

9.71

9013.1.5

1304.4

773.1

1

333

156.2 2425 378.8 169.1 410 8.2

4.9 1965 9.6 6.6 13 35.1

3.5 1942 6.9 4.4 8.5 24.1

1 1942 2 2.5 4.8 138.1

28.9 4162 120.2 25.7 106.8 -11.2

3.9 2775 10.9 2.1 5.8 -46.4

0.7 2205 1.5 1.1 2.5 60.7

27.3 2510 68.4 18.8 47.1 -31.2

1.2 2510 3 0.43 1.1 -65.0

5.5 2510 13.9 3 7.6 -45.2

1.2 2510 3 0.73 1.8 -38.5

234.3 618.2 234.3 609 0.0

60.4 4563 275.5 48.9 223.2 -19.0

40.4 4042 163.1 32.5 131.2 -19.6

11.7 3977 46.6 16.7 66.5 42.7

1.9 6646 12.4 1.9 12.4 0.0

220.7 11939 2635.3 240 2661.4 -8.7

1.7 6019 10.1 2.3 13.9 37.2

1.9 6019 11.2 2.1 12.5 12.0

1.3 6019 7.6 0.9 5.3 -30.9

1.1 6019 6.8 0.34 2.1 -69.8

2 6019 11.8 1.4 8.6 -26.9

22.4 3886 87.2 16.7 64.8 -25.6

3.3 4350 14.5 5.1 22.3 53.6

368.8 3282.2 368.8 3224.2 0.0

603.1 3900.4 603.13833.20.0

1152

90

13534.13534.0.00

3..7313..7310.00.0

.03010.030100.00.0

331003.33.79.7

3.5...34.9919.7

30..0..0.00.0

13.1.51304.4773.1

31403.139173.1

903140

3.133.1

1153 واخرون

9

1

1091

3

9111

5

314

94719.911007

4

911010051004

.

9117

7

.

1 1090

90 1097

1004

11. Hassan I., M. Arif Raza, I. Ahmed Khan and R. Ilahi, 2005. Optimum cropping

pattern, production and income level/ J. Agri. Soc. Sci., Vol. 1, No. 1.

1154

9

3

1527634 1293907 1829 1769

194993 115753 1584 1523

183826 123501 2022 1398

251480 133687 4278 2285

975953 778524 6364 2963

346111 216574 2956 1070

17336 6833 2253 1409

67894 2207 6435 1927

3901 1256 6549 1404

77584 52522 5440 2237

15281 7385 6722 2237

11909 5095 19865 2237

51313 28435 3660 2237

24751 15336 4166 2237

127685 80707 2165 2237

9568 4955 6158 2237

1366580 885555 2213 7608

758854 642629 1770 3479

4964 409 1067 3317

24158 16539 1201 2990

87442 69492 5393 4660

14032 6910 1101 2602

3551 2808 3847 8651

397787 210687 808 3945

205249 173342 6461 3555

44784 29558 2445 3555

27520 19363 1610 3555

110497 64095 6151 3555

34221 26446 3245 3555

37878 17342 1443 3555

130149 84650 6073 3555

172562 71196 3245 3555

172081 80724 989 2848

27145 12120 4642 3055

11110 1481 1276 3055

25489 7624 2083 3055

608 3640 4375 3055

1155 واخرون

1

3

508926 412074 1324 1769

54860 28470 1079 1523

30574 21936 2230 1398

3268 2425 1028 1546

51218 20279 4067 2285

249510 215758 6088 2963

70666 31817 2780 1070

3316 1118 2672 1409

10735 3244 6300 1927

2067 526 8119 1404

51794 35242 7406 2237

10470 6902 5582 2237

15299 10017 17057 2237

5780 3542 2555 2237

5332 3246 3195 2237

15443 6713 2400 2237

17663 10406 7955 2237

364526 205682 1839 7608

359187 246346 1033 3479

30688 12435 1191 2990

50113 27872 4462 4660

58430 29962 449 3945

35920 22745 6836 3555

9715 6968 1788 3555

14484 8412 3702 3555

8018 3879 10047 3555

13689 11445 2386 3555

6539 3965 1477 3555

15873 10685 4074 3555

87919 42175 3070 3555

33127 12835 829 2848

8790 5947 8290 3055

6828 889 5340 3055

1156

3

3

406912 336771 2250 1958

3621 2477 1049 1531

8561 2890 1474 1479

6112 3143 1281 1479

47156 18849 5271 2560

233419 198364 6680 3311

36319 22863 3176 1205

24683 11850 4669 2161

18790 10396 8108 1713

50374 40076 6248 2350

4657 2879 5662 2350

5630 4970 10978 2350

6268 2479 3258 2350

6716 4506 4721 2350

18357 7028 2259 2350

4957 2920 6568 2350

14343 8004 4860 2350

510105 441539 1686 3995

16938 11721 803 3515

28383 14912 1183 3854

19538 10956 1907 3448

21029 10194 5523 5551

8173 3271 1336 3040

42748 40345 5079 9839

61468 9612 353 4429

43349 35452 9554 4178

5015 2370 4440 4178

20632 13140 6239 4178

14501 9772 7089 4178

9311 6766 2521 4178

13794 8997 4215 4178

4723 2091 4021 4178

88036 75905 1360 3208

18290 11879 11052 3416

6156 2820 2493 3416

35466 24752 3829 3416

3391 2038 5002 3416

1157 واخرون

5

3

622605 540806 2467 2425

31748 27895 781 1965

28444 20506 1428 1942

7499 3571 1693 1942

1869 806 1969 2201

13113 5666 1052 2097

35832 13581 3009 3190

333091 274162 6159 4162

48114 37196 2893 1580

31866 15168 1969 2775

3688 1685 1052 2205

54619 34324 3009 2510

1628 993 6159 2510

5766 1563 2893 2510

3327 2194 4841 2510

3361 1464 5863 2510

1602 1067 7184 2510

38196 28 979 8980

398741 299388 1143 4563

318143 278723 1142 4042

1706 944 527 4448

15892 10094 1472 3977

15234 12732 6290 .646

22282 8975 1515 3449

80612 41834 6092 11939

54484 23749 12 5050

10930 7684 7760 6019

2214 1136 1717 6019

3590 2158 4330 6019

3488 2356 1394 6019

4589 3381 2486 6019

4077 2475 5109 6019

12615 6578 2425 6019

68945 49928 628 3886

19965 17460 10582 4350

2080 1584 7048 4350

1683 1097 4035 4350

1158

4

3

178365 122632 2388 2425

6600 2643 1108 1965

4388 2876 1661 1942

2464 804 2187 1942

40720 25658 6750 4162

4818 2099 7142 2775

1128 628 9733 2205

31744 18763 10793 2510

3017 424 2739 2510

6937 3038 9906 2510

1697 726 4967 2510

68542 48908 571 4563

46170 32459 1104 4042

16722 6345 2208 3977

3804 658 4499 6466

243117 194389 5490 11939

2309 1163 8315 6019

2084 1299 3593 6019

1689 876 486 6019

1704 343 658 6019

4724 1429 1077 6019

30486 16688 3723886

5125 421 15064 4350

1159 واخرون

ECONOMIC RETURN OF ALTERNATIVE CROPPING PATTERN IN THE DIFFERENT AGRO- ECOLOGICAL ZONES OF EGYPT

MOHAMED, A. A.1, B. M. MOURSI

2, M. H. SALEM

2 AND M. A. MEDANEY

3

1. Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate, ARC. 2. Department of Agri. Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams Univ. 3. Horticulture Research Institute, ARC, Giza.

(Manuscript received 16 January 2013 )

Abstract

The present study aimed to design alternative cropping patterns relative to actual cropping pattern to minimize total water need of cropping pattern in different agro- ecological zones in Egypt. Egypt divided to five different agro- ecological zones, to exploit the points of differentiation for each zone, and to provide the decision maker of agricultural policy an opportunity to guide them for adjusting the path of agricultural production, to satisfy the needs of the Egyptian society from agricultural crops under the limited agricultural resources, through maximizing the economic use of these resources using linear programing approach. The total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the first ecological zone reached 22.12 billion m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 20.92 billion m3, saving around 1.2 billion m3, representing about 5.4% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 364.4 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 1.1 billion. While the total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the second ecological zone was 6240.1 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 5822.2 million m3, saving around 417.8 million m3, representing about 6.7% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 132 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 338.2 million. Whereas the total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the third ecological zone was 5472 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 5390 million m3, saving around 82 million m3, representing about 1.5% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 52.2 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 83.2 million. The total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the forth ecological zone was 7628 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 7375 million m3, saving around 253million m3, representing about 3.3% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 69.1 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 187.7 million. And the total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the last ecological zone was 3900 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 3833 million m3, saving around 67 million m3, representing about 1.72% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 11 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 405 million. Key words: Agro- ecological zones, Linear Programming, Cropping pattern, Water requirement .