1931093
1131
122
3
ةيالبحوث الزراعمركز -المعمل المركزى للمناخ الزراعى .1 جامعة عين شمس - كلية الزراعة .2 ةيمركز البحوث الزراع - معهد بحوث البساتين .3
11.91
10.11
9.14.5
3.5.5
9.9
.150.9
4.11.1
597....7
931
33..1
45714310
.19.4
14.1
.3.1
1134
(Analysis of Variance)F
Objective Function
(1)
FAO. August, 2009. "Description of Agro-ecological Ecosystems of the Egyptian Agriculture,
Project UNJP/EGY/022, Climate change risk management in Egypt, Cairo, Egypt. (2)
2112 )3)
Hassan et al.2005. Optimum Cropping Pattern, Production and Income Level/ J. Agri. Soc. Sci., Vol.
1, No. 1.
1136
n
i
iiyt XWMin1
w
Subject to the following constraints
Winter land availability
iij
n
i
ij KLXa 1
Summer and Nili land availability
iij
n
i
ij SLXa 1
Water availability
WXW ij
n
i
ij 1
Maximum Area constraint
jij
n
i
ij MAXXa 1
Minimum Area constraint
jij
n
i
ij MinXa 1
Non-negativity constraint
0ijX
:
WtObjective Function
Wiyi
Xii
Constraints
1137 واخرون
100.1090
379.19
6381957.4.1
74894921090
33979.
718360177.39
23750191090
379.19
9.4.447.7.1.
18832101090
379710
1090.49..
1139 واخرون
1..55..19..170..
1
3372141
3009816
11.91
10.119.91
4.5
4.5
10.193
3.50...3
91.3.4
91.033
349..9..
1140
9
33
3
1439.6 1769 2546.6 1487.1 2630.7 3.3
146.4 1523 223 195 297 33.2
155.2 1398 217 183.8 257 18.5
191.6 2285 437.7 133.7 305.5 -30.2
831.9 2963 2464.8 778.5 2306.8 -6.4
249.3 1070 266.7 346.1 370.3 38.9
11.7 1409 16.5 17.3 24.4 48.0
56.3 1927 108.6 32.2 62 -42.8
2.6 1404 3.7 3.9 5.4 48.0
65.5 2237 146.7 52.5 117.5 -19.9
13.2 2237 29.4 7.4 16.5 -43.9
9.7 2237 21.8 5.1 11.4 -47.7
46 2237 103 28.4 63.6 -38.3
22 2237 49.1 15.3 34.3 -30.2
123.2 2237 275.7 80.7 180.5 -34.5
7.9 2237 17.6 5 11.1 -36.9
3372.1 6927.9 3372.16694.10.0
1113.5 7608 8471.2 885.6 6737.3 -20.5
725.4 3479 2523.7 758.9 2640.1 4.6
2.2 3317 7.4 4.9 16.5 121.5
19.72990 59 24.2 72.2 22.3
76.5 4660 356.5 69.5 323.8 -9.2
10.6 2602 27.6 14 36.5 32.5
3.2 8651 27.4 2.8 24.3 -11.5
245.5 3945 968.7 245.2 967.3 -0.1
187.3 3555 665.7 205.2 729.7 9.6
33.7 3555 119.8 44.8 159.2 32.9
21.2 3555 75.5 27.5 97.8 29.6
105 3555 373.1 110.5 392.8 5.3
1141 واخرون
28.9 3555 102.8 34.2 121.7 18.3
19.6 3555 69.8 37.9 134.7 92.9
90 3555 320 130.1 462.7 44.6
121.9 3555 433.3 172.6 613.5 41.6
169.1 2848 481.7 172.1 490 1.7
15.8 3055 48.2 27.1 82.9 72.1
3 3055 9.2 11.1 33.9 270.6
13.3 3055 40.6 25.5 77.9 91.6
4.3 3055 13.3 6.1 18.6 40.1
3009.8 15194.43009 814233.30.0
6381.9 22122 36381.9 20927.40.0
1142
1
337195933719590.00.0
3001.9.3001.9.0.00.0
.3.9147.3.91470.00.03
11.9110.119.914.53
35..31719.74.53
0...0.190.033.5
913.4..91033..349..9..
303.11.14.9..
1303.
11.19..
3
44.14.113.5.0.3
17.43995.5
5.1
5...70.1
10.334.73..5
5
1144
5
1.11311.11310.00.0
...0.4...0.40.00.0
9.3.0979.3.0970.00.0
3.150.94.11.1597....7
33311397911...7
30..90..90.00.0
4045.95705.7341.37.9
174.14.1113..9
..15
4..1597...
..7
50..93
55064.1
5705.7
341.3
7.9
5174.
14.1..9
1145 واخرون
4
40.45.74.741..
31.73.
94.9
5.199..15..7
31.93..9..1
.
.09544
.44901
4.57
4.31.9..1
9.4
9.4
.9.093
9.19.033
.4..
4.5
911..3.5
1146
4
333
390.4 1958 764.5 406.9 796.7 4.2
2.9 1531 4.4 5.6 8.6 95.6
4.8 1479 7.2 10.6 15.6 118.2
3.8 1479 5.6 6.1 9 60.3
38.1 2560 97.4 18.8 48.3 -50.5
208.2 3311 689.5 198.4 656.8 -4.7
24.7 1205 29.8 36.3 43.8 46.7
21.4 2161 46.2 24.7 53.3 15.6
15.6 1713 26.7 18.8 32.2 20.4
45 2350 105.8 42.5 99.8 -5.7
3.6 2350 8.4 2.9 6.8 -19.7
5.1 2350 11.9 5 11.7 -2.1
2.6 2350 6.1 2.5 5.8 -4.6
6.5 2350 15.2 4.5 10.6 -30.4
14.9 2350 35 7 16.5 -52.8
3.9 2350 9.1 2.9 6.9 -24.6
10 2350 23.4 8 18.8 -19.6
801.5 1886.2 801.5 1841.2 0.0
491.5 3995 1963.7 492 1965.5 0.1
12.8 3515 45.1 16.9 59.5 32.1
20.6 3854 79.2 28.4 109.4 38.1
16.7 3448 57.5 19.5 67.4 17.2
15.9 5551 88.5 10.2 56.6 -36.0
4.9 3040 15 8.2 24.8 65.9
41 9839 403.3 40.3 397 -1.6
15.9 4429 70.6 9.6 42.6 -39.7
41.8 4178 174.5 35.5 148.1 -15.1
3.8 4178 16 2.4 9.9 -38.2
17.3 4178 72.3 13.1 54.9 -24.1
13 4178 54.2 9.8 40.8 -24.7
9.1 4178 37.9 6.8 28.3 -25.3
11.1 4178 46.2 9 37.6 -18.7
2.9 4178 12.2 2.1 8.7 -28.4
81.4 3208 261 88 282.4 8.2
15.5 3416 52.8 18.3 62.5 18.3
3.6 3416 12.3 6.2 21 71.5
33.5 3416 114.5 35.5 121.2 5.8
2.9 3416 9.8 3.4 11.6 17.7
855.1 3586.5 855.1 3549.8 0.0
1656 6 5472 71656 6 53910.0
1147 واخرون
.
.3317
31.93.5
7
51.75.440.31..7
11..3.115.37.310..
4.330.9
....14..
90.159.999.9
.09544.095440.00.0
.44901.449010.00.0
9.4.4479.4.4470.00.0
345714310.9..19.4
333053145409.4
39.039.090.019.1
4.17..4534911..3.5
331731.999.3.5
1148
.
901.9..
1915.4
7
333
588.1 2425 1426.2 619.2 1501.6 5.3 29.8 1965 58.6 31.7 62.4 6.4
23.4 1942 45.4 28.4 59.1 30.1 4.9 1942 9.6 7.5 14.6 51.6 1.3 2201 2.8 1.9 4.1 45.9 6.9 2097 14.6 13.1 27.5 88.8
27 3190 86.1 13.6 43.3 -49.7 287.2 4162 1195.2 274.2 1141 -4.5 38.3 1580 60.5 48.1 76 25.6 30.5 2775 84.6 15.2 42.1 -50.3 2.8 2205 6.1 3.7 8.1 32.7
45.4 2510 113.9 34.3 81.1 -28.7 1.3 2510 3.2 1 2.5 -21.9 4.2 2510 10.6 1.6 3.9 -63.0 2.9 2510 7.3 2.2 5.5 -24.4 2.9 2510 7.3 1.5 3.7 -49.6 1.3 2510 3.2 1.1 2.7 -15.5
1098.2 3135.2 1098.2 3079.2 0.0 13.1 8980 117.3 0.0028 0.3 -99.8
369.6 4563 1686.3 357.7 1632 -3.2 288.7 4042 1167 318.1 1286 10.2 1.4 4448 6.3 1.7 7.6 21.0
13.6 3977 54 15.9 63.2 17.0 13.46646 89.3 12.7 84.6 -5.2 15.8 3449 54.3 22.3 76.9 41.1
55.2 11939 659.4 41.8 499.5 -24.3 25.6 5050 129.3 23.7 120 -7.3
10.1 6019 60.6 7.7 46.2 -23.7 1.7 6019 10.3 1.1 6.8 -33.9 2.6 6019 15.9 2.2 13 -18.2
3 6019 17.9 2.4 14.1 -20.9 3.6 6019 21.43.2 20.4 -4.8 3 6019 18.3 2.5 14.9 -18.6
8.3 6019 49.9 6.6 39.6 -20.6 62.1 3886 241.2 68.9 267.9 11.1 18.5 4350 80.4 20 86.8 8.0 1.8 4350 7.8 2.1 9 15.4 1.4 4350 6.1 1.7 7.3 19.2
912.5 4493.2 912.5 4296.1 0.0
2010.7 7628.4 2010.7 7375.70.0
1149 واخرون
.
.
901.9..
1915.4
7..1
7.37
143.913.3
3.3
901.9..901.9..0.00.0
1915.41915.40.00.0
1090.491090.490.00.0
37.1.7374143.913.3
337153...91.3.3
30.7.0.750.011..
4770 45.13094.1
1.70 17109404.1
1150
.0.753
1..0.7.3
.4.77
4.57
3094.1
.1.07
17104.1
1
99.15..539.1
..791
91..
..134.993..9
51.737.143..
90
13534.
3..731
1151 واخرون
3.1
3..3.7.14
9.71
9013.1.5
1304.4
773.1
1
333
156.2 2425 378.8 169.1 410 8.2
4.9 1965 9.6 6.6 13 35.1
3.5 1942 6.9 4.4 8.5 24.1
1 1942 2 2.5 4.8 138.1
28.9 4162 120.2 25.7 106.8 -11.2
3.9 2775 10.9 2.1 5.8 -46.4
0.7 2205 1.5 1.1 2.5 60.7
27.3 2510 68.4 18.8 47.1 -31.2
1.2 2510 3 0.43 1.1 -65.0
5.5 2510 13.9 3 7.6 -45.2
1.2 2510 3 0.73 1.8 -38.5
234.3 618.2 234.3 609 0.0
60.4 4563 275.5 48.9 223.2 -19.0
40.4 4042 163.1 32.5 131.2 -19.6
11.7 3977 46.6 16.7 66.5 42.7
1.9 6646 12.4 1.9 12.4 0.0
220.7 11939 2635.3 240 2661.4 -8.7
1.7 6019 10.1 2.3 13.9 37.2
1.9 6019 11.2 2.1 12.5 12.0
1.3 6019 7.6 0.9 5.3 -30.9
1.1 6019 6.8 0.34 2.1 -69.8
2 6019 11.8 1.4 8.6 -26.9
22.4 3886 87.2 16.7 64.8 -25.6
3.3 4350 14.5 5.1 22.3 53.6
368.8 3282.2 368.8 3224.2 0.0
603.1 3900.4 603.13833.20.0
1152
90
13534.13534.0.00
3..7313..7310.00.0
.03010.030100.00.0
331003.33.79.7
3.5...34.9919.7
30..0..0.00.0
13.1.51304.4773.1
31403.139173.1
903140
3.133.1
1153 واخرون
9
1
1091
3
9111
5
314
94719.911007
4
911010051004
.
9117
7
.
1 1090
90 1097
1004
11. Hassan I., M. Arif Raza, I. Ahmed Khan and R. Ilahi, 2005. Optimum cropping
pattern, production and income level/ J. Agri. Soc. Sci., Vol. 1, No. 1.
1154
9
3
1527634 1293907 1829 1769
194993 115753 1584 1523
183826 123501 2022 1398
251480 133687 4278 2285
975953 778524 6364 2963
346111 216574 2956 1070
17336 6833 2253 1409
67894 2207 6435 1927
3901 1256 6549 1404
77584 52522 5440 2237
15281 7385 6722 2237
11909 5095 19865 2237
51313 28435 3660 2237
24751 15336 4166 2237
127685 80707 2165 2237
9568 4955 6158 2237
1366580 885555 2213 7608
758854 642629 1770 3479
4964 409 1067 3317
24158 16539 1201 2990
87442 69492 5393 4660
14032 6910 1101 2602
3551 2808 3847 8651
397787 210687 808 3945
205249 173342 6461 3555
44784 29558 2445 3555
27520 19363 1610 3555
110497 64095 6151 3555
34221 26446 3245 3555
37878 17342 1443 3555
130149 84650 6073 3555
172562 71196 3245 3555
172081 80724 989 2848
27145 12120 4642 3055
11110 1481 1276 3055
25489 7624 2083 3055
608 3640 4375 3055
1155 واخرون
1
3
508926 412074 1324 1769
54860 28470 1079 1523
30574 21936 2230 1398
3268 2425 1028 1546
51218 20279 4067 2285
249510 215758 6088 2963
70666 31817 2780 1070
3316 1118 2672 1409
10735 3244 6300 1927
2067 526 8119 1404
51794 35242 7406 2237
10470 6902 5582 2237
15299 10017 17057 2237
5780 3542 2555 2237
5332 3246 3195 2237
15443 6713 2400 2237
17663 10406 7955 2237
364526 205682 1839 7608
359187 246346 1033 3479
30688 12435 1191 2990
50113 27872 4462 4660
58430 29962 449 3945
35920 22745 6836 3555
9715 6968 1788 3555
14484 8412 3702 3555
8018 3879 10047 3555
13689 11445 2386 3555
6539 3965 1477 3555
15873 10685 4074 3555
87919 42175 3070 3555
33127 12835 829 2848
8790 5947 8290 3055
6828 889 5340 3055
1156
3
3
406912 336771 2250 1958
3621 2477 1049 1531
8561 2890 1474 1479
6112 3143 1281 1479
47156 18849 5271 2560
233419 198364 6680 3311
36319 22863 3176 1205
24683 11850 4669 2161
18790 10396 8108 1713
50374 40076 6248 2350
4657 2879 5662 2350
5630 4970 10978 2350
6268 2479 3258 2350
6716 4506 4721 2350
18357 7028 2259 2350
4957 2920 6568 2350
14343 8004 4860 2350
510105 441539 1686 3995
16938 11721 803 3515
28383 14912 1183 3854
19538 10956 1907 3448
21029 10194 5523 5551
8173 3271 1336 3040
42748 40345 5079 9839
61468 9612 353 4429
43349 35452 9554 4178
5015 2370 4440 4178
20632 13140 6239 4178
14501 9772 7089 4178
9311 6766 2521 4178
13794 8997 4215 4178
4723 2091 4021 4178
88036 75905 1360 3208
18290 11879 11052 3416
6156 2820 2493 3416
35466 24752 3829 3416
3391 2038 5002 3416
1157 واخرون
5
3
622605 540806 2467 2425
31748 27895 781 1965
28444 20506 1428 1942
7499 3571 1693 1942
1869 806 1969 2201
13113 5666 1052 2097
35832 13581 3009 3190
333091 274162 6159 4162
48114 37196 2893 1580
31866 15168 1969 2775
3688 1685 1052 2205
54619 34324 3009 2510
1628 993 6159 2510
5766 1563 2893 2510
3327 2194 4841 2510
3361 1464 5863 2510
1602 1067 7184 2510
38196 28 979 8980
398741 299388 1143 4563
318143 278723 1142 4042
1706 944 527 4448
15892 10094 1472 3977
15234 12732 6290 .646
22282 8975 1515 3449
80612 41834 6092 11939
54484 23749 12 5050
10930 7684 7760 6019
2214 1136 1717 6019
3590 2158 4330 6019
3488 2356 1394 6019
4589 3381 2486 6019
4077 2475 5109 6019
12615 6578 2425 6019
68945 49928 628 3886
19965 17460 10582 4350
2080 1584 7048 4350
1683 1097 4035 4350
1158
4
3
178365 122632 2388 2425
6600 2643 1108 1965
4388 2876 1661 1942
2464 804 2187 1942
40720 25658 6750 4162
4818 2099 7142 2775
1128 628 9733 2205
31744 18763 10793 2510
3017 424 2739 2510
6937 3038 9906 2510
1697 726 4967 2510
68542 48908 571 4563
46170 32459 1104 4042
16722 6345 2208 3977
3804 658 4499 6466
243117 194389 5490 11939
2309 1163 8315 6019
2084 1299 3593 6019
1689 876 486 6019
1704 343 658 6019
4724 1429 1077 6019
30486 16688 3723886
5125 421 15064 4350
1159 واخرون
ECONOMIC RETURN OF ALTERNATIVE CROPPING PATTERN IN THE DIFFERENT AGRO- ECOLOGICAL ZONES OF EGYPT
MOHAMED, A. A.1, B. M. MOURSI
2, M. H. SALEM
2 AND M. A. MEDANEY
3
1. Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate, ARC. 2. Department of Agri. Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams Univ. 3. Horticulture Research Institute, ARC, Giza.
(Manuscript received 16 January 2013 )
Abstract
The present study aimed to design alternative cropping patterns relative to actual cropping pattern to minimize total water need of cropping pattern in different agro- ecological zones in Egypt. Egypt divided to five different agro- ecological zones, to exploit the points of differentiation for each zone, and to provide the decision maker of agricultural policy an opportunity to guide them for adjusting the path of agricultural production, to satisfy the needs of the Egyptian society from agricultural crops under the limited agricultural resources, through maximizing the economic use of these resources using linear programing approach. The total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the first ecological zone reached 22.12 billion m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 20.92 billion m3, saving around 1.2 billion m3, representing about 5.4% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 364.4 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 1.1 billion. While the total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the second ecological zone was 6240.1 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 5822.2 million m3, saving around 417.8 million m3, representing about 6.7% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 132 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 338.2 million. Whereas the total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the third ecological zone was 5472 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 5390 million m3, saving around 82 million m3, representing about 1.5% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 52.2 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 83.2 million. The total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the forth ecological zone was 7628 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 7375 million m3, saving around 253million m3, representing about 3.3% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 69.1 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 187.7 million. And the total water needs for actual cropping pattern in the last ecological zone was 3900 million m3, while the total water needs for alternative pattern 3833 million m3, saving around 67 million m3, representing about 1.72% from available total Irrigation water, could be used to irrigate 11 thousand feddan in new land, and adding to the total net income L.E. 405 million. Key words: Agro- ecological zones, Linear Programming, Cropping pattern, Water requirement .
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