Unchartered Waters: Alternative Futures of the Arctic
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Future Infinite Academic June 11, 2014 Helsinki, Finland Uncharted Waters: Alternative Futures of the Arctic John A. Sweeney Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies @CPPFS Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies @HRCFS Guy Yeomans Arctic Futures @arcticfutures
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Transcript of Unchartered Waters: Alternative Futures of the Arctic
Future Infinite Academic June 11, 2014
Helsinki, Finland
Uncharted Waters: Alternative Futures of the ArcticJohn A. Sweeney Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies @CPPFS Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies @HRCFS !Guy Yeomans Arctic Futures @arcticfutures
Collaboration without foresight is dangerous, and foresight without collaboration is pointless.
The Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies
Ziauddin Sardar Director
John A. Sweeney Deputy Director
cppfs.eastwest.edu
Numerous imaginings of arctic futures
What’s missing?
Growth
Manoa School archetypes
Manoa School archetypes
Disciplined
Collapse
Manoa School archetypes
TransformManoa School
archetypes
TransformManoa School
archetypes
Collapse
Disciplined
Growth
What many of us fail to realize is that the last four hundred years are a highly special period in the history of the world. For the more we get out of the world the less we leave, and in the long run we shall have to pay our debts at a time that may be very inconvenient for our own survival.
We have modified our environment so radically that we must
now modify ourselves in order to exist
in this new environment.
We can no longer live in the old one.
!Progress imposes
not only new possibilities
for the future but new restrictions.
!- Norbert Wiener (1948)
What is Postnormal Times?
Complexity Chaos Contradictions
These are all of the vested interests and areas of critical concern for political stability in Afghanistan.
Complexity.
The 2008 financial crisis cost $22 trillion…and counting.
Chaos.
The richest 85 people in the world own as much wealth as the bottom half (3.5 billion).
Contradictions.
It took 16 years to reach one billion smartphones (1996!2012). The next billion will take only three years (mid!2015) or less.
Accelerating Change.
Persistent and uncontrollable leaks have pushed the cleanup of radioactive water emanating from Fukushima into unknown territory.
Uncertainty.
Unc
ert
ain
ty
Accelerating Change
ContradictionsChaos
Complexity
Postnormal Times
Grow Collapse Disciplined Transform
Population Increasing Declining Controlled Post!human
Energy Sufficient Scarce Limited Abundant
Economy Dominant Survival Regulated Trivial
Environment Conquered Overshot Sustainable Artificial
Culture Dynamic Stable Focused Complex
Technology Accelerating Limited Restricted Transformative
Governance Corporate Local Strict Direct
Seven Driving Forces Matrix
!Bulk carrier makes NW
Passage 2013
Santa is Canadian?
2013
!No tech
remedy for sea ice loss
2014
Russian Arctic
Military Command
2014
Circumpolar Economic
Council 2014
Arctic Sea!ice
Loss 2014
Horizon Scan Hits
2030$
Scenario A
"surman suuhun"
Kiitos! Thank you!
Mahalo nui!
Future Infinite Academic June 11, 2014
Helsinki, Finland
Uncharted Waters: Alternative Futures of the ArcticJohn A. Sweeney Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies @CPPFS Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies @HRCFS !Guy Yeomans Arctic Futures @arcticfutures
