Vlad Andrei Chiriac

MSc Sustainable Futures

LITERATURE REVIEW

1. Introduction

In recent decades, the Arctic sea ice has experienced massive

transformations, with its peak in the summer of 2007, ‘when the

seasonal ice retreat broke all records in the history of

instrumental monitoring’ (Comiso et al. 2008). Present rates of sea

level rise in the Arctic Ocean are constantly increasing, being

substantially aided by the ice caps and the mountain glaciers. North

West of Greenland, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago consists of a

third of the world volume of land ice outside the ice sheets,

however its involvement in sea level variation continues to be

widely unclear (Meier et al. 2007).

Bekryaev et al. (2010) state that the 2007 yearly temperature ranges

over land areas poleward of 60°N have been ‘the warmest in the

instrumental record since 1875’. Furthermore, Zhang et al. (2008)

assert that whilst unnatural atmospheric forcing was undoubtedly a

key factor in the 2007 sea ice shrinkage, the alterations would not

have been remarkable if the Arctic ice had not been deteriorated

throughout the past decades.

Starting with 1979, along with the release of efficient satellite

measurements, the alteration cycles in the Arctic sea ice levels

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became visible. The Arctic sea ice scale and dimensions are

decreasing at a fast rate. Studies made in the recent decades

provide evidence of a significant progressive reduction of the

Arctic sea ice cap (Stroeve et al. 2008). According to climate

simulations, Wang and Overland (2009) suggest that the Arctic Ocean

could become seasonally ice free as soon as 2040.

Since the late 1970s, climate simulations have estimated a

continuous increase in Arctic warming and sea ice reduction as a

reaction to accelerated greenhouse gas forcing (Manabe and Stouffer

1980). Despite the fact that the Arctic’s reaction signal is

understood, the intensity has not been limited by climate

simulations. The Arctic’s reaction to the greenhouse gas forcing has

been explained by a series of factors such as the increase in winter

clouds, the mean ice depth and the amplified poleward ocean heat

transportation (Holland and Bitz 2003). Serreze et al. (2009) state

that the monitored rates of Arctic sea ice reduction, along with the

related Arctic warming have surpassed numerous climate model

simulations.

This paper aims at researching the objectives and methods of

measuring the Arctic Ice loss, with the purpose of acknowledging the

future consequences and impacts of ice melt the planet is facing,

through data presentation and the interpretation of the outcomes of

this process.

The major decrease in the summer sea ice levels in the past 20

years, besides having an impact on the overall ice cap, it also

establishes an essential alternation in the Arctic ice’s

characteristics, such as the transformation from a predominantly

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constant ice cover to a periodic cover alongside open waters

throughout the summer season (Kwok and Cunningham 2010), as well as

the emergence of fresh ice in locations which endure the summer

season melt (Maslanik et al. 2007). A decrease in the sea ice levels

may well increase the Arctic warming process due to the ice albedo

‘feedback mechanism’, as well as having an effect on climatic

systems outside the Arctic limits (Francis et al. 2009).

2. Observation Methods

The significance of the Arctic sea ice in the earth’s climatic

conditions has long been established (Francis et al. 2009).

Furthermore, a variety of researches to determine the reasons behind

the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice have been undertaken (Zhang et

al. 2008). The Arctic sea ice level has been approximated with the

use of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

patterns, which pointed out that in the next 30 years there could be

a sea ice free summer (Wang and Overland 2009).

An efficient technique of observing and learning about the spatial

inconsistency in sea ice has been the aerial photography analysis,

which gives the pictures a high quality, almost unachievable by

remote. Consequently, this technique continues to be very popular

within the field ventures, thus providing certainty on sea ice for

additional, more in depth studies and evaluations (Perovich et al.

2009).

By visually examining the aerial photographs, they can provide an

approximate understanding of the sea ice environment at various

times and locations. Throughout the summer melting stage, the older

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melt basins have gained particular forms and sizes, and the distinct

shades of blue were connected to the depth of the under-lying ice.

Such ponds additionally scatter along the ice cover, linking and

forming massive, sophisticated networks (Fig. 1). Some ponds present

a light blue colour, suggesting the sea ice base continues to trap

melted water over the ice. Other ponds display darker spots, meaning

the sea ice had melted through.

Fig. 1 – Melting ponds.

Data Source: Lu et al. (2010)

Since 1979, recent satellite captures reflect descending patterns in

most months, smaller during winter season and larger in the month of

September, when the summer melt season ends (Serreze et al. 2007).

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Fig. 2 - Arctic sea ice extent (1979 -2012) from the yearly month of September,when the minimum degree takes place. Data Source: NSIDC, 2012

(http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/snow-ice/sea-ice.html)

The time interval from 2002 until present experienced a string of

significant September scale minimum. In 2005, a new minimal record

was determined, accompanied by a small improvement in 2006.

Consequently, in September 2007, the Arctic sea ice level dropped to

the minimum rate registered since 1979, meaning 23% lower than in

2005 (Stroeve et al. 2008). It has been evaluated at only 4.1×106

km2 (Comiso et al. 2008). The September 2008 ice level came second

lowest in ranking, around 16% lower than the successive pattern,

being evaluated at 4.5×106 km2, as stated by NSIDC (National Snow

and Data Centre, USA). In addition, the months of September in 2010

and 2009 came next on the lowest levels on record. In 2012, the

month of September reached a new record of low sea ice level, which

was around 49% below the average of this month for the period 1979 –

2000 (Fig. 2). Fairly recent confirmation of the receding ice cap

originates from ‘evaluations of upward looking sonar data’ (Rothrock

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et al. 1999), ‘decline in multiyear ice proportions’ (Nghiem et al.

2006), ‘declines in the ice age’ (Maslanik et al. 2007), as well as

‘the expansion of the summer melt season’ (Belchansky et al. 2004).

The reduction of the ice level in the month of September is better

described by a mix of ‘normal variability in air temperature’,

natural flow of oceans and weather, along with the forcing from

increasing levels of greenhouse gases (Serreze et al. 2007).

Throughout the surveillance period, climate simulations made by the

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) show a downward

trend in the ice levels (Stroeve et al. 2007).

There is a statistical indication that the acceleration of the ice

loss process is merely starting to manifest. Furthermore, sufficient

actual facts show an increase in the process of ‘climate forcing’.

Firstly, due to the substantial open waters in the past few months

of September, the next springtime ice cap is overtaken by ice

produced throughout the prior autumn and winter seasons (first year

ice), which may be susceptible to melting during the summertime,

being affected particularly by the atmospheric movement variations

that facilitate the sunny season melt (Lindsay et al. 2009).

Secondly, the occurrence of additional thin ice during springtime

enables open water regions to form sooner in the summer, resulting

in a greater significance of the ice albedo observations (Perovich

et al. 2007). Lastly, Markus et al. (2009) argues that the warming

of the Arctic during all seasons, in addition to early melting

starting points, creates a lower possibility of cold weather which

may trigger short-term recuperation by means of ‘natural climate

variability’.

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The ice albedo feedback is without a doubt a natural component of

the sea-ice system. Along with the beginning of the summer season,

the melting snow uncovers the clean ice. In addition, the melt ponds

start developing, as well as the dark open waters are becoming

apparent, which due to the reduced albedo, promptly take in the

solar radiations, thus nurturing farther ice melting. It is due to

the albedo response that the capacity of seasonal patterns (March to

September) in ice levels can be identified. Perovich et al. (2007)

suggests that the reduction pattern in the September ice levels has

been partially related to an escalating significance of the ice

albedo response. This is due to the shift to an Arctic ice cap where

during spring season thin ice is most certainly to develop into a

further fragmented ice cap, with a reduced amount of structural

stability. Consequently, throughout melting season, open water

regions become exposed earlier, and are increasing considerable

during summertime, thus enhancing ice melting.

Lindsay et al. (2009) asserts that the 2007 record minimum of the

ice level has materialized due to many years of reduction of the ice

cap favoured by the ‘weather circulation and external forcing’. In

several studies made by Kay et al. (2008), Stroeve et al. (2008) and

Ogi et al. (2008), they acknowledged that an atmospheric trend which

developed in the beginning of summer and displaying uncommonly

increased sea level pressure in the Beaufort Sea and the Canada

Basin, along with a surprisingly reduced pressure in the east part

of Siberia, was an essential factor in the September 2007 record

minimum. The trend, lately referred to as ‘the summer Arctic Dipole

Anomaly – DA’ (Wang et al. 2009) generates warmer winds in the

Eastern Siberian and the Chukchi Sea, facilitating the melting and

transport of ice toward the pole. In the year of 2007, the arctic

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dipole anomaly was thoroughly established all through the

summertime, leading to powerful southern winds which generated

warmer climatic conditions, as well as separation of ice outside the

coasts of Alaska and Siberia advancing to the North Pole. Moreover,

it improved the ice transportation from the Arctic Ocean into the

North Atlantic, passing through the Fram Strait (Wang et al. 2009).

As outlined by Kay et al. (2008), it stimulated uncommon clear sky

in close proximity to the anomaly that boosted the cover melt. The

intensity and tenacity of the summer of 2007 high in Beaufort Sea

has been explained by L’Heureux et al. (2008) as being ‘a local

reflection of unparalleled strong positive phase of the Pacific

North American tele-connection pattern’.

Ocean forcing is one of the leading participants in indentifying

sea-ice reduction that is still to be entirely comprehended. Warm

waters make way from the Barents Sea and Fram Strait into the Arctic

Ocean and create a middle cover while they subdue under cooler and

fresher surface water. Despite the fact that this flow is constantly

shifting, it seems that starting with 1990, a general rise in

temperature, as well as in transport of water from the Atlantic

Ocean passing through Fram Strait has been observed (Dimitrenko et

al. 2008). Further reports came across associations with the

incursion of water from the Pacific Ocean. A simultaneity in rises

of the temperature in the Arctic Ocean surface waters starting with

1990 along with appearance of fast sea ice melting in the summer

seasons in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas has been observed by

Shimada et al. (2006). Furthermore, they consider that the late

accumulation of winter ice enables better connection among the wind

forcing and the ocean.

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The Arctic is getting warmer more rapidly compared to various parts

of the planet. The level of warming is surpassing the amounts

anticipated by the climate simulations (IPCC 2008). The majority of

climate simulations estimate that temperatures will keep rising;

therefore the number of challenges linked to such transformations

may additionally grow.

3. Future predictions and consequences of Arctic Ice loss

The Arctic sea ice cover is drawing near a crucial limit where a

fast shift towards a seasonal ice free condition could emerge. Prior

to a system being close to a crucial limit, a ‘critical slowing

down’ comes first, which means the system tends to be significantly

slower in recuperating from disruptions that cause intensification

in the system’s memory (Schefer et al. 2009). Regarding the Arctic

sea ice cover, it indicates that a lower or higher sea ice level

month of September tends to be succeeded by another lower or higher

level the following month of September.

Fig. 3 – Interaction of 20 year sections of March regular ice density and the

succeeding September ice level in 1950-2050. Data Source: Stroeve et al. (2010)

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In the period of 2005 – 2009, the vast destruction of glaciers in

Meighen, Mellville and North West Devon ice covers is by far

exceeding the record time period (Burgess and Koerner, 2009).

Significant expansions in melting of the glaciers in Agassiz, as

well as in Devon, starting with 1990, are embodied in the net mass

amount, which explains the uniqueness during several millenniums.

Koerner (2005) argues that this period corresponds to summer

temperature deviations of up to 2° for this area, highlighting the

fact that the warmness of summer seasons influences the mass

balance. Moreover, he suggests that the loss of glaciers in the area

is significantly reacting to increasing temperatures. According to

the ice core melting records, the Canadian Arctic ice covers are

decreasing more rapidly compared to moment in the past 4000 years.

Historically, the ice cover has prevented most shipping in northern

waters (Frankel, 1986). The contracting ice in the Arctic region

generates rivalry and disagreements between conventional arctic

countries, as well as non-arctic states. Along with the shrinking

ice, several forms of shipping will take advantage of the arctic

waters, such as international shipment, shipment related to gas and

oil resource advancement in the north of the Barents Sea; the

fishing industry will see improvements, as well as the tourism

industry through new routes and destinations opened for cruise

liners (Krauss et al. 2005). In the past several years, the Arctic

waters have seen a boost in the number of cruise liner navigation

(Stewart et al. 2007). Consequently, surface ships will start to

emerge, as due to the ice cover, solely military submarines seem to

have patrolled the Arctic waters. The world’s major powers have

gained a desire for running surface ships in the Arctic, therefore

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reducing considerably their submarine engagement. In addition to the

increased number in shipments, Chircop (2010) asserts that there is

a great risk of harming the marine environment in the Arctic waters,

for instance unforeseen discharges of chemicals, as well as oil.

Sea-ice reduction has negative effects on the glaciers, as well as

crucial impacts on wildlife and the release of methane. Sea-ice

preserves the deposits of methane onshore and close to the seashore,

avoiding the caltrate deteriorating and releasing the methane to the

atmosphere. The discharge of more methane into the atmosphere will

trigger an even more accelerated warming of the environment.

Furthermore, consequences involving the loss of Arctic ice influence

the lives of indigenous people, as well as the plants and wildlife.

4. Conclusions

In conclusion, this paper explored the methodology and contribution

of the studies made to advancing the knowledge regarding the melting

of the arctic ice by interpreting the data collected though diverse

methods.

The temperatures in the arctic areas are increasing all year long

and starting with the 1970s ice cover levels have become visible due

to precise satellite measurements. Therefore, thee temperatures have

been associated with additional open waters in the month of

September and more fragile ice caps during springtime. A decline in

the sea ice levels can easily step up the Arctic warming process due

to the ice albedo response, as well as having an effect on climatic

systems outside the Arctic limits.

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Prior advance of open waters in the melting seasons increases the

summer ice albedo response, encouraging further accumulation of open

waters in the month of September. The additional ice cover reduction

is further influenced by the ice free ocean warming during the

autumn season. Stroeve et al. (2011) argues that because of the

melting season commencing with thinner ice, as opposed to two

decades ago, atmospheric trends which facilitate the melting of ice

during the summertime, such as in the summer of 2007, tend to be

more capable as they were in the past. Alternatively, they suggest

that atmospheric trends that promote ice preservation are

increasingly becoming less efficient.

Climate change will alter the Arctic region along with its fauna.

Because of the melting ice cover, this region is warming at a faster

rate than any other area on the planet. Furthermore, ocean currents

could change, thus changing the global climate; additional

greenhouse gases, such as methane, could be released in the

atmosphere, hence an even bigger contribution to global climate

warming. On the other hand, melting sea-ice will provide new routes

for water transport, as well as uncovering new fossil fuel

resources. These transformations could have an impact on the

indigenous ways of life, most of them having prospered in the Arctic

thousands of years ago.

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