Exploring Long-Term Human Futures

Exploring Long-Term

Human Futures

Futures studies and social research:

Visions for progress in policy and planning

Social Research Association

7 July 2009London

Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures

“May no new thing arise.”

Turbulence.

Watersheds.

History of FS in Brief

• From mechanism to organism• Depression and revolution:

planning economies• Post - WWII:

• Re-visioning Europe• Re-defining national identity

and charting its course• Operationalising the USA’s

golden age• Developing the centrally

planned economies

Early FS post-World War II:Region Focus Futures

approachPrimary Methods

Key Thinkers

Europe Re-buildingPhilosophical and

visionary

Images & visioning, planning, la prospective

F. Polak, Pierre Masse, B. de

Jouvenel,

USAResource

allocation and production

Quantitative, technical,

method-based

Systems modelling, Delphi, scenarios

Meadows, Kahn, Helmer, Gordon, Glenn, de Geus

Socialist Economies

Planning the central

economy

Econometric forecasting

Quantitative; trend extrapolation; goal-based forecasting

Malitza, Novaky, Sicinski, Zeman,

Markovic

Developing world

Nation buildingVisioning,

econometrics, post modernism

Planning, trend extrapolation, critical analysis

El Mandjra, Ahamed, Sardar

Early:Association Internationale Futuribles (www.futuribles.com);Club of Rome (www.clubofrome.org);World Futures Studies Federation (www.wfsf.org);World Future Society (www.wfs.org).

More recent:Association of Professional Futurists (www.profuturists.com);Club of Amsterdam (www.clubofamsterdam.com);Club of Budapest (www.clubo$udapest.org);European Professional Futurists Conference Lucerne (www.european-futurists.org);The Kenos Circle (www.kenos.at).

Futures Studies Organizations.

http://www.futuribles.com

http://www.clubofrome.org

http://www.wfsf.org

http://www.wfs.org

http://www.profuturists.com

http://www.clubofamsterdam.com

http://www.clubofbudapest.org

http://www.european-futurists.org

http://www.kenos.at

Futures publications:Classic texts:- Dator’s “classics” bibliography at: http://www.infinitefutures.com/resources/bibliojad.shtml

- Inayatullah’s annotated futures bibliography at: http://www.metafuture.org/bio.htm

- Slaughter’s annotated bibliography at: http://foresightinternational.com.au/catalogue/product_info.php?cPath=44&products_id=115

Journals and periodicals:– Foresight: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm

– Futures: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00163287

– Future Survey: http://www.wfs.org/fsurv.htm

– Futures Research Quarterly: http://www.wfs.org/frq.htm

– Journal of Futures Studies: http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw

– On The Horizon: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/oth.htm

– Technological Forecasting and Social Change: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625

– World Futures: http://www.gbhap.com/journals/titles/02604027.asp

http://www.infinitefutures.com/resources/bibliojad.shtml

http://www.metafuture.org/bio.htm

http://foresightinternational.com.au/catalogue/product_info.php?cPath=44&products_id=115

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00163287

http://www.wfs.org/fsurv.htm

http://www.wfs.org/frq.htm

http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/oth.htm

http://www.gbhap.com/journals/titles/02604027.asp

A robust variety.

• University:• 10 Graduate Programs Globally• 90 Graduate Programs wth a

Futures Focus or Courses• Endowments for Research Centers• Growing Consulting Field• Increasing Government Initiatives

Courtesy John Smarthttp://www.accelerating.org/gradprograms.html

http://www.accelerating.org/gradprograms.html

Diversity. Philosophical Futurists

Planners and Prospective

Quantitative Forecasting

Operational Analysis and Systems Dynamics

“21st Century Studies”

Macrohistories and Macrohistorians

Marxists, neo-Marxists, Critical Theorists

Boomers, Doomers, and Trans-hum-ers

Convergence.

• Complex Evolving Systems• Analyse Images and Narratives• Explore Alternative Futures• Strategic and Accountable• Post-disciplinary• A Global Dialogue:

• Focus: long-range future for humanity and the planet -- the global problematique;

• Participatory and inclusive;• Disturbs the present.

Core Concepts and Assumptions

New paradigms bracket uncertainty:

From the Newtonian clockwork to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle: the loss of predictability.

13

From whole systems analysis to complex adaptive systems and chaos theory: beyond order and randomness to emergence.

TIMELINESSYSTEMS MAPS

HORIZON SCANNINGTREND FORECASTSIMPACT MAPPING

USED & DISOWNED FUTURESFUTURES TRIANGLE

SCENARIOSINFLECTION POINTSDECISION HORIZONS

IMAGES of the FUTURESYSTEMS THINKING

SOCIAL CHANGE THEORIESTRANS-DISCIPLINARY

CRITICALTRANSFORMATIONAL

PARTICIPATORYLONG-RANGE

Alternative possible futures...

! Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict;

! Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of emerging change with our complex evolving selves and societies.

trends

innovations

revolutions, etc.

possibility one

possibility two

possibility three

…etc.

! A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures;

! of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth;

! of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community.

Alternative possible futures...

Foresight question & context

Profession, field, market

Organisation / community

Problem / question

Politics

Demographics

Economy

Environment

Science

Art, play

Technology

Lifestyles

Foresight: 4 Modes & 5 Key Activities

4 Thinking Modes:

Logical

Creative

Systemic

Intuitive

17

5 Foresight Activities:Identify and monitor change;

Map and critique impacts;

Imagine alternative outcomes;

Envision preferred futures;

Organise and act to create change.









Five Key Activitiesof Integrated Foresight

Identifypatterns ofchange:trends inchosenvariables,changes incycles, andemergingissues ofchange.

Examineprimary,secondary,tertiaryimpacts;inequities inimpacts;differentialaccess, etc.

Identify,analyze, andbuildalternativeimages ofthe future,or’scenarios.’

Identify,analyze,andarticulateimages ofpreferredfutures, or’visions.’

Identifystakeholders,resources;clarify goals;designstrategies;organizeaction; createchange.

Identify &Monitor Change

CritiqueChange

Imaginethe Possible

Envisionthe Preferred

Plan &Implement

Inte*grated* Foresight

A Futures Framework

CourtesyProf. Peter C. Bishop

MS Program in Futures StudiesUniversity of Houston

http://www.tech.uh.edu/futureweb

Dr. Peter C. Bishop, Studies of the Future, UH-Clear Lake

Alternative futuresAlternative futures

Information sources• texts• experts• organizations• periodicals• websites

Information sources• texts• experts• organizations• periodicals• websites

History• previous eras

separated by events/discontinuities

• the current “era”beginning with themost recentdiscontinuities

History• previous eras

separated by events/discontinuities

• the current “era”beginning with themost recentdiscontinuities

ImpactsImplicationsImpacts

Implications

ImpactsImplicationsImpacts

Implications

Response• policy• plans• actions

Response• policy• plans• actions

© Dr. Peter Bishop, 2000

Framework Forecasting

Forces of change• ongoing trends• potential events• emerging issues• new ideas

Forces of change• ongoing trends• potential events• emerging issues• new ideas

UncertaintyUncertainty

}Current conditions

• social• technological• economic• environmental• political

Current conditions• social• technological• economic• environmental• political

STAKEHOLDERS

EffectsInformation

Research

Scanning

Leading indicatorsLeading

indicators

Baseline futureBaseline future

WILDCARD!!

TIME

number of cases; degree

of public

awareness

local; few cases; emerging

issues

global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and megatrends

scientists; artists; radicals; mystics

specialists’ journals and websites

layperson’s magazines, websites, documentaries

newspapers, news magazines

government institutions

Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change.

adapted from Graham Molitor

Change: issue life-cycle.

Identifying Sources of Surprise:

Source acquisition: opinion leaders.– Science, technology, innovation: sources in

which those communities themselves announce news.

– Social and cultural change: sources expressing values and ideas bubbling among artists, youth, marginalised communities; often ‘fringe’ publications or media.

• Sources of surprise:– Look for challenges to scientific paradigms;– Look for challenges to the status quo.

21









Sources of ChallengeGovernment desire for

advanced warning.Political culture: need to look responsible, authoritative NOT tentative;Scientific culture: need to assemble credible, objective, data-based arguments

Horizon scanning:• Beginning of research, not end;• “N of 1”;• Unearths contradictions;• Subjective, not objective;• “Unscientific” sources;• Systems-based;• Unfamiliar concepts.

22

Research criteria:Credible;Documented;Authoritative;Statistically significant;

• Scanning:–Questionable credibility;–Difficult to document;–Fringe sources;–Case studies --

statistically insignificant.

23

Research vs. scanning…

Research vs. scanning…

Research criteria:Coherent: data agree;Consensus: experts agree;Theoretically grounded;Mono-disciplinary.

• Scanning:–Incoherent -- data

varies widely;–Experts disagree or

attack outright;–Demands new

theories;–Multi-disciplinary.

24

Analytic DepthIntegral Futures (Slaughter, 1999)

Melds FS with Wilbur’s integral philosophy

Four quadrants: individual exterior world; collective exterior; collective internal; and individual internal

Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah, various)

Four layers: litany/events; systems/structures; values/worldviews; and myths/metaphors.

25









“Litany”events, trends, problems, “word on the street,” media spin, official positions.

“Causes”structures, inter-relationships, systems, technical and policy explanations

“Worldview” culture, values, how language frames/constrains the issue

“Myth/Metaphor”Collective archetypes, emotional responses, visual images

CLA

26









Integral Futures | Causal Layers

Individual

Collective

Interior Exterior

BEHAVIORAL

SOCIAL

INTENTIONAL

CULTURAL

Subjective

Inter-Subjective

Objective

Inter-Objective

“WORLDVIEWS, MENTAL MODELS”

“MYTHS, METAPHORS”

“LITANIES”

“CAUSES, SYSTEMS”

measurable

interpreted

Evidence-based Policy

Comfort Zone

‘Science’ vs. FR/S: design differences

theory formation vs. futures articulationreductionist vs. systemic & holisticexperimental vs. descriptivelinear systems vs. complex & chaotic systems

• predictive vs. exploratory

• reproducible results vs. insights

• one hard ’truth’ vs. multiple soft ’alternatives’

• value-neutral vs. value-loaded

28

‘Scientists’ vs. Futurists: researchers’ roles

objective vs. subjective

observer vs. facilitator/participant

knowledge revealer vs. change agent

reporting vs. performing

• Futures studies assumes that the point of exploring multiple possible outcomes is to help people create the futures they desire: active, value-focussed research.

29

Enhanced multidisciplinarity.

Enhanced creativity.

Thank you.

Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures:

foresight research and trainingOxford, England

http:// www.infinitefutures.com

Exploring Long-Term Human Futures

Documents

Transcript of Exploring Long-Term Human Futures