Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning

Exploring e-government futures through the application

of scenario planning$

George Cairns*, George Wright, Ron Bradfield,Kees van der Heijden, George Burt

Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business,

199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0QY, UK

Received 13 November 2001; received in revised form 1 August 2002; accepted 20 October 2002

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on

government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change and development

programs. We present empirical evidence of externally facilitated change to mindsets and patterns of

behavior within local government through use of a scenario planning-based approach. Our aim was

to facilitate the organizational actors’ conduct of investigation of the ‘limits of the possible’ for a

range of plausible futures and determination of strategic responses to these. Participants used their

own current knowledge and understanding as a basis for development, with the introduction of

external ‘expertise’ to challenge their thinking and to expand their understanding. Following this, we

facilitated the participants’ elucidation of key uncertainties on the future, exploration of the

relationships between them and possible outcomes. The participants then constructed scenarios that

outlined four possible and plausible futures. These held explicit meaning for the participants,

enabled them to identify implications of each possible future in relation to structure and service

requirements and informed analysis of current structure, service, etc. We compare and contrast the

process and outcomes of our scenario-planning intervention (based on intuitive logics) with both

those of other futures methodologies (decision analysis, Delphi and environmental scanning) and

with other scenario methodologies (trend-impact analysis and cross-impact analysis). We argue that

0040-1625/$ – see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00371-2

$ The authors are members of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies at the University of

Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, UK, and have jointly written The Sixth Sense: accelerating

organizational learning with scenarios, published by Wiley, Chichester, 2002.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +44-141-553-6066; fax: +44-141-552-8851.

E-mail address: [email protected] (G. Cairns).

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

71 (2004) 217–238

the external facilitation of internal generation of knowledge, understanding and meaning, and of

exploration of the limits of the possible for the future, is a valuable tool for comprehending strategic

choices. We conclude that our scenario approach, utilizing intuitive logics, enables organizational

actors to make sense of the complexities and ambiguities that they face and so facilitates strategic

change.

D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Keywords: e-Government; Scenarios; Futures; Change; Complexity

In this paper, we examine the impact of information and communications technologies

(ICT) on government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change

and development programs. We describe and discuss our use of scenario planning as a tool for

facilitating change, with reference to the limited amount of critical academic literature on

scenario planning and with specific critical comparison to other futures methodologies. We do

this within the context of government, in the debate on the future role of government and the

means by which it might deliver value-based services to its citizenry through the application

of new ICT. Based upon our own experience, and by reference to the literature, we discuss

external facilitation of change programs such that they have meaning for, and become

embedded in the consciousness and subconsciousness of organizational actors.

We present evidence of empirical study of our work with a local government organization

in the UK (here referred to as Northshire Council) in which our role was that of facilitators of

investigation by the elected members and salaried officers of the Council and by members of

their partner organizations from the public and not-for-profit sectors. The project was set up

in response to a call for submissions for funding from a section of central government under a

program entitled ‘Modernizing Government’, concerned with the application of new ICT in

support of ‘joined up government’, with the aim of making government more efficient and

effective. At the time of our intervention, Northshire Council had been invited to revise their

first-round submission for a second round, but had received critical feedback on the lack of

clear strategic direction and deliverables within their submission. The primary method

applied in the intervention was one of scenario planning, with the key aim that the Council

members and officers should develop their own broad understanding of the range of

possibilities for the future environment in which they may find themselves operating; in

addition, that their strategic thinking should be outward focused, towards the community and

its desires, aspirations, service needs, etc., rather than inward focused on the Council’s own

intentions, capabilities and service offerings.

Whilst the investigation, analysis and critical appraisal was undertaken by the group actors

themselves, they received input on the possibilities of technology, governance and other areas

from ‘remarkable people’ [1], selected not for their knowledge of Northshire and not to offer

any ‘solutions’. Rather, they offered general insights into the ‘limits of the possible’ for

futures in and around their area of expertise in order to broaden the range of thinking of the

internal participants.

G. Cairns et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 217–238218

As external agents in the design of Northshire Council’s change agenda, our aims were

fivefold, seeking to facilitate the members’ and officers’ own:

� elucidation of key uncertainties on the future� investigation of the limits of the possible� exploration of the relationships between these and possible outcomes� articulation of a range of plausible futures� determination of strategic responses

In so doing, we sought to combine the positive elements of intellectual ownership by the

Council through personal involvement, along with added surprise and learning value through

external input [2].

Our study indicates that the creation of ‘short histories of the future’ by the group, through

their own creative and critical engagement with their developing understanding, was a

powerful force for change in the mindset and intent of the Council. It enabled members and

officers to comprehend the strategic options that were open to them in terms of the impact that

these would have on the community, its responses and, ultimately, on themselves.

Whilst acknowledging the context-specific nature of the work, we seek to draw out some

general points of interest for discussion of the nature of change, the role of external agents

and relative usefulness of a range of futures methodologies in structuring judgmental inputs

via an action-orientated intervention process.

1. Change and the public sector

Since the 1980s, the UK has seen a continuous paradigm shift in public sector management,

under both Conservative and Labour governments, from the ‘traditional’ model of public

sector, characterized by lack of market incentives and higher levels of bureaucratic rule and

regulation than in private sector organizations [3]. Successive governments have sought to

establish an approach and a new management ethos that places emphasis on responsiveness to

consumers, improved performance and revenue generation in line with the new public

management vocabulary [4] and the drive towards debureaucratization [5]. At the beginning

of this period of change, the relationship of public/private sector management might have been

viewed as dichotomous in terms of concern for, and comfort with stability/change, cost/

revenue, bureaucracy/entrepreneurship [6]. Research in the 1990s showed that this was no

longer the case [7] and that the value systems of the public sector were migrating towards those

of the private sector. Much of this change towards a private sector ethos has been driven

through the involvement of the private sector, partly through programs of privatization of

public sector services and utilities, and partly through the involvement of private sector

management consultants as change agents in the public sector. Where the external agents’ role

is that of deliverer of solutions to organizational problems, it might be characterized as ‘heroic’

[8], providing deliverance that could not be internally conceived. In meeting the aims of the

Modernizing Government program, to apply new ICT, there is strong temptation to move

G. Cairns et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 217–238 219

directly to seeking external solutions, since leading-edge thinking on the new technologies

obviously lies within the private sector. Northshire Council themselves, and we as external

agents, were not, however, open to consideration of externally generated solutions through

application of the ‘expert systems’ model of decision making [9]. Rather, all parties sought to

enable internally generated solutions based upon a ‘knowledge-centered’ [9] approach and

consideration of the widest possible range of options.

2. Scenarios and the search for unity

Many of the models for organizational change that might be considered applicable to a

program of public/private sector convergence are embedded in modernist thinking, in search

of unitary forms of organization. Such unifying approaches are presented in much of the

managerial literature, as in the search for coherence [10], shared vision [11,12], strong and

unifying leadership [13] and an integrated organizational culture [14]. In its execution in the

practice arena, such rationalist thinking undertaken in search of the causa finalis [15]—the

final cause or purpose of human endeavor—is frequently based upon selection and exclusion.

Rather than promoting divergence and exploration of multiple possible causal relationships,

organizational actors seek the most plausible and acceptable explanation to any problem.

They seek firstly to dispel any notions of the unfamiliar, the inexperienced, the uncomfortable

[16], then to select only what is new and comfortable; those things for which they can create

false similarities [15] with what is already known and familiar. In reality, however, it is often

the alien and the inexperienced that will have greatest impact upon organizations, such as the

reality that there is a world market for more than five computers, that there is a reason for

individuals to have a computer in their home [17]!

In contrast to the rationalist, modernist and reductive approach, the nihilist postmodernist

may support the conclusion that all cause is deception, all effects ‘super-added’ by human

interpretation. Here, there is no unity, no single reality, and no causal relationship in human

action. Whilst we argue against the concept of a single reality and unitary thinking, we

consider that fragmented nihilist approaches are of little significance to those in the practice

arena—those seeking meaning from and for their day-to-day activities. For them, what is

required is a way of getting to grips with the causa efficiens [15]—the efficient cause—that

might offer meaningful interpretation of managerial thinking/acting. In our scenario-based

approach, we argue for thinking which is divergent and nonlinear, not seeking reduction of

complexity and ambiguity to a false unity, as in the averaging approach to synthesizing

divergent opinions in decision analysis [18]. Neither do we seek abandonment of all notion of

cause and effect, no matter how perceptual. Rather, we seek integration of diverse and

contradictory concepts into a range of plausible scenario story lines; to seek the causae

efficiens—the efficient causes—that will enable individuals and organizations to be proac-

tively prepared for any reasonably possible and plausible future.

Whereas decision analysis will apply the probability laws in order to police and to devalue

the ‘conjunction fallacies’ [19] by which humans make sense of the events and decisions that

they face, scenario planning applies plausibility perceptions to use these fallacies. This is not


done, as Mintzberg suggests [20] in order that ‘by speculating upon a variety (of futures), you

might just hit upon the right one’, but to frame the limits of possibility for a range of plausible

futures. This is done with the belief that, barring the unknowable happening, the ‘real’ future

will fall somewhere within the established frame. We believe that it is better to be proactively

prepared for any reasonable eventuality than to be even the fastest at reacting to emergent

reality.

In accepting that much of what underpins scenarios is assumption, we see this as a strength,

rather than as the weakness claimed by Mintzberg [20]. We see scenarios as a tool to facilitate

understanding of the multiple ‘realities’ that are generated by actors in their own individual and

shared context(s) of thinking/acting, and to investigate the reasoning and logic that underpins

these socially constructed realities [21]. We argue for proactive internal ‘problem seeking’ and

conceptualization of options as a means of overcoming adoption of the ‘defensive routines’

[22] that stand in the way of implementation of externally generated solutions. In addition, we

argue for the application of the scenario approach as an iterative and proactive form of

vigilance in the search for an understanding of what the future might hold, and of what

strategies should be pursued in the light of this understanding [23].

3. Method

In adopting an organization-centered approach to problem framing, analysis and strategic

thinking, we consider it necessary that the exercise be firmly embedded in the organization

members’ own context of thinking/acting. However, our experience is that the preexistent

boundaries of that context may result in initial definition of a narrow set of problem-

defining parameters by the organization. These can place inhibiting constraints upon action,

framing the problem at a largely operational level, rather than enabling wide-ranging,

innovative and challenging investigation at the conceptual level. For example, in decision

analysis practice, there is nothing inherent in the methodology to challenge the decision-

makers’ a priori world-view of the course of unfolding events in the external world. It is

against this world-view that decision options are generated and evaluated in decision

analysis practice [18]. We seek to broaden the scope of the organizational members’

thinking, reframing their world-view, whilst ensuring that it remains their world-view, rather

than that of the external change agents. Throughout the intervention process, therefore, our

concentration is upon listening rather than speaking, facilitating rather than directing,

questioning rather than answering.

In seeking to facilitate the organizational participants’ explorations of the limits of the

possible, maintaining complexity and ambiguity without elimination and reduction, the major

element of the method applied to the empirical study was that of scenario planning [24]. By

this method, we sought to elicit the participants’—both elected members and officers from

Northshire and members of their partner organizations from the public and not-for-profit

sectors—perceptions of the critical uncertainties [2] that the Council might face in the next 5

years, and to explore the impact of these upon society and the Council’s operations within a

range of differentiated but plausible futures.


In order to determine a meaningful organizational context for the scenario exercise, we first

conducted a series of 25 in-depth, semi-structured but open-ended interviews with four

elected members and 11 senior officers of Northshire Council and with 10 members of partner

organizations. Each of these interviews lasted between 1.5 and 2 h and was designed to

facilitate the interviewees’ thinking, firstly about the broadest of issues in the external macro-

environment, with a concentration upon those factors that were considered to be of major

relevance to the future sphere of operations of the Council. Then, discussion was moved

towards consideration of the internal, microenvironmental factors that related to these macro-

elements. Thereafter, interviewees were invited to consider the recent history of the Council

and how the current status of the microenvironment was derived. Finally, the interview was

thrown open to the interviewees to add any further material they considered relevant to the

study. By this means, we sought to inspire the interviewees’ thinking, firstly about the future

of the world beyond the Council, then on how this would impact upon the Council, and

finally to consider the Council’s own legacy systems to the present time. From this process,

we derived insights into the organizational problem and the knowledge gaps in relation to it

that were seen to be of concern to all the interviewees in relation to the future of Northshire

Council. In addition, we were able to attune the participants’ thinking to the concept of

looking from the outside in and from the future back to the present, a major element of the

scenario thinking process.

We sought to share the content of the interviews with all participants, but with the

content being nonattributable to individuals, and with some structure that would assist

assimilation. The interview transcript report was structured around a range of recurring

concepts that were derived from the content of the interviews by a process of grounded

analysis, rather than around headings predetermined by us. This report of the interview

content was then used as the framework for a scenario agenda workshop, working with the

Council’s own ‘scenario team’, consisting of six members derived of the elected members

and senior officers. Our role in the workshop was to facilitate the critical engagement of

the team with the interview material, to enable and support their own ‘strategic con-

versation’ [1] in order to seek to identify the critical uncertainties faced by the Council

over the next 5 years, from which to derive the framework for the next scenario-building

workshop. This framework was therefore derived of the participants’ own thinking on issues,

and their personal involvement in the process, in order that they might have intellectual

ownership of and belief in the credibility of the content of the resultant scenarios. At the same

time, our role as facilitators was designed to minimize the risk of organizational bias and

suppression of new ideas and to maximize learning opportunities from innovative external

inputs [2].

Having derived a scenario agenda from the set of 25 interviews, working with the

smaller group of six, we then facilitated the scenario-building workshop with the original 25

interviewees. Return to the larger group here was intended to maximize involvement in

development and ownership of the scenarios. In line with most scenario-planning

approaches, the scenario-building process involved initial investigation through surfacing

the major driving forces that will influence the development and outcome of critical

uncertainties and of the predetermined trends that are considered to be largely predictable


and thus, a part of all futures. In the latter category fall areas of demographics—most of the

Councils’ future ‘customers’ may already be identified and understood—and areas of

technological development, whilst the former category includes areas of technology

adoption and application and matters of partisan political dogma. After identifying a range

of driving forces, the participants were requested to define, in a few words, the two polar

outcomes for each uncertainty that were considered feasible within the scenario timeframe

and within the particular context of operation. Since the elicitation of driving forces in a

large-scale scenario exercise can lead to the surfacing of hundreds of ideas, the next stage is

one, not of selection of ideas, but of clustering and determining relatedness, in order to

bring manageability without reduction and elimination. It is with these cluster headings—

the higher level concepts that describe a complex and discrete, although not independent,

subset of the world-view—that participants work in determining the overall scenario

outlines.

The particular scenario approach adopted [1] differs from the ‘simple scenario’ approach

[2] where extreme ‘‘positive’’ and negative scenarios are constructed to ‘‘bound’’ the range of

plausible futures—we did not seek to combine different driving force, or groups of driving

forces outcomes in terms of positive, negative or stable combinations relative to the current

strategic position. Applying our adopted approach, the structure of the scenarios within the

general framework of investigation was based upon identification of two scenario dimensions

(A and B), the two higher level concepts that exist independently of each other and that are

considered to have the greatest perceived combination of high impact upon the organization,

with a high degree of unpredictability as to what the outcomes of this impact might be. In

relation to these dimensions, we first facilitated brainstorming of descriptors of the futures

that were perceived to depict the extremes of each, in isolation of any other factors (A1/A2

and B1/B2), then these extremes were combined in the four possible combinations—in

simplistic terms, best/best, best/worst, worst/best and worst/worst (A1B1, A1B2, B2A1 and

A2B2)—to create four possible scenario scopes. Next, participants brainstormed descriptors

of end-state societies for each of these scenario scopes, then sought to place all the polar

outcomes earlier derived for the driving forces into one or more of the scenario scopes, based

upon consideration of the internal logic and causal and chronological relationships. Identified

trends and predetermineds could, in principle, be located in each of the scenarios. These

scenario scopes were then fleshed out by the participants, to link the end states back to the

present, through discussion of the logic and causality and of the events that would be required

in order to make sense of this. The outcome of this process was a set of four plausible

scenarios that incorporate ‘best’ and ‘worst’ case perceptions in different combinations, rather

than in isolation of each other, and with acknowledgement that these terms are value laden

and context specific.

The main stages and elements of this scenario method are as set out in Fig. 1.

3.1. Findings from the scenario exercise

From the initial set of 25 in-depth interviews, we determined a vast range of issues that

concerned the individuals. The recurring concepts derived from these by grounded analysis


that became the ordering structure for our interview report were: the external environment,

the role of the Council, values of Northshire Council, forms of organization, the change

project itself, issues relevant to other agencies and funding. The interview report was

circulated to all interviewees and, having obtained confirmation that the content of the

interview record was recognized by the participants as making sense in their own context of

thinking/acting, the first workshop was held with the Council’s own scenario team. This was

used as a forum for determining the critical uncertainties faced by the Council and its partners

relative to the key business problem, in order to set the scenario agenda for the subsequent

scenario workshop with the larger group of members, officers and partner organization

representatives who had participated in the interviews. This scenario agenda was derived

from nine critical uncertainty clusters identified by the participants in this first workshop, that

included:

� partner agendas—whether partner organizations shared the values of the Council, the

commitment to involvement, willingness to share resources, etc.� information mapping and understanding the basics of the business—how do current

systems relate to knowledge management, can duplicate systems be integrated/eliminated,

etc.� public ownership—is the commitment to involvement a solution or an ideology, will the

public be with the Council, how does it relate to cultures of youth and the underclasses,

will participation be hijacked by pressure groups, etc.� central agencies as help or hindrance—what is the real agenda of central government,

does system centralization conflict with democracy, etc.� in addition, what will be the opportunities and constraints offered by new

technologies, what resource implications are there for the change process, what will

Fig. 1. Stages and elements of the described scenario process.


be the macro-economic factors of relevance, how will change be managed and what

will be the new organizational design required to implement joined up government in

the future.

In summarizing these nine critical uncertainties, a ‘broad canvas’ for the subsequent

scenario workshop was defined around four meta-level themes of:

� technology possibilities� citizen views of technology solutions and societal acceptance/rejection� knowledge management, joined up government and complexity� governance and democracy in the future

Prior to the scenario workshop, further input to the participants’ expanding frame of

thinking was gained by the invitation of a small number of external experts—remarkable

people [1]—to present views on the limits of the possible for the future of ICT, their

application to public sector management and the nature of governance and society. Input

here from a telecommunications designer put technological capability forecasts into the

wider context of the telecommunications industry’s then current financial commitments, the

global economic situation, etc., whilst the application capabilities of ICT were demonstrated

by ‘virtual visits’ to leading-edge developments in Australia, in Queensland and South

Australia. The scenario workshop was structured around our facilitation of the participants’

initial identification of the widest possible range of driving forces that could produce change

over the next 5 years. This was an open-ended process, in that no time limit was placed

upon it, and it was conducted initially in round-robin format, such that all 25 members

provided input in turn until each ran out of ideas. Over a period of some 90 min, over 120

driving forces were identified by individuals and clarified by the group in terms of the

plausible polar outcomes within the Council’s context of operations. The driving forces and

polar outcomes were recorded, separately and related by number coding (driving force 1

produced polar outcomes 1A and 1B, 2 produced 2A and 2B, etc.) on magnetic hexagons on

large wall-mounted boards, so that the entire group could share the content and the process

of manipulation of ideas without intervention by us, or without any individual member of

the group constraining the thinking according to their own agenda. The driving forces were

then clustered by the participants as a group—through a process of manipulation of the

hexagons, accompanied by open discussion, argument, negotiation and compromise, again

with the aims of investigating perceived causal relationships, and surfacing a manageable

number of higher level concepts without reduction. The participants themselves defined

these higher level concepts by agreeing encapsulating titles for each cluster. These higher

level concepts were then ranked by the participants, firstly according to the relative impact

they were considered likely to have on the business problem, and secondly by the perceived

relative degree of unpredictability as to what the outcomes of this impact might be over the

next 5 years.

In accordance with the adopted scenario approach, the scenario dimensions were derived

from those two higher level concepts that, whilst not directly driving each other, were con-


sidered to have the combination of greatest impact, with highest degree of unpredictability as to

the outcomes. These scenario dimensions related to the fields of:

� the democratic process—primarily concerned with the balance between central and local

government, and the effect of the balance struck between these upon delivery of services at

the local level by the Council� value creation—concerned with the speed of development of new technologies, the

capacity for individuals and organizations to internalize these and their use to become

more productive

In relation to the democratic process, the participants saw unpredictability as to whether

decision making would rest with individuals and with businesses, with minimum intervention

from government and the public sector agencies, or whether society would move towards a

collectivism in which community issues would come to the fore. In relation to value creation

from new technologies, there was unpredictability as to whether technology would be adapted

to human needs, unleashing a new productivity through unimpeded uptake, or whether

technology uptake would be subject to institutional constraints. The latter situation would see

the development of a division between those who have access to and skills to use technologies

and those who have either not got access to or cannot use them. In both cases, the impact of the

outcomes was considered to have a major impact upon the Council.

Through the processes of discussion, negotiation and argument in brainstorming the

extremes of the two dimensions, of the four possible combinations of these, then the insertion

of all the polar outcomes from the driving forces, the participants built up a rich and internally

consistent picture of each of four possible futures, recognized by them as their own work.

After the full group had completed this stage, four subgroups then each worked with one

member of the facilitation team in order to develop the storyline over time for one of the

scenarios. These smaller groups considered the relationships between different factors in

terms of perceived cause and effect and chronology. They considered the starting point of the

story in relation to aspects of the present, the key events—decisions, developments, exercises

of power by key stakeholders, etc.—that would determine and describe its unfolding and the

end state that would define it. These short histories of the future were designed, constructed,

named and made sense of by the participants themselves, not by us, and were therefore the

wholly owned intellectual property of the Council and its partners. They were not represented

as ‘good’ or ‘bad’ worlds, nor was any presented as more or less likely than any other. All

four were seen as entirely plausible developments that were worthy of consideration in

planning the way forward towards modernizing and joining up government through the

adoption of new technologies. However, each presented different challenges and different

opportunities to the Council.

The scenario titles and key identifiers are as follows.

3.1.1. Forward to the past

In this future, centralization dominates over dispersed and local governance, and central

government runs the show. There are real barriers to change, with restricted funding for local


government, mismatches in the geographical boundaries of Councils in relation to areas of

wealth and employment and a reluctance to share accountability across Councils and

agencies. The adoption of new technologies and the resultant productivity improvement in

the public sector has come at the expense of local Councils, with a drive towards

centralization at government level and to central control or privatization of services at the

local level. This future may mark the beginning of the end for local government.

3.1.2. Free enterprise

Here, there is emancipation of the public and a drive away from the paternalism of the old-

style bureaucratic governance. The ‘customer rules’ and market forces are delivering—but

only for some. For those with access to and the capability to use new technologies, there is a

public-free spirit, with ‘24� 7’ access to the ‘new public sector trade’. Whilst there are drives

towards achieving economies of scale, there is challenge to the concept of ‘one size fits all’,

with a demand for premium services from those who can afford to pay extra for them. There

is, however, serious polarization in society, with exclusion from the new society of the

underclass who can either ill-afford, or who are ill-equipped to use the emerging technolo-

gies.

3.1.3. People’s kailyard1

In this scenario, there is increasing interest in the democratic process, but primarily at a

superficial level, rather than with the fundamentals. As such, there is a tendency towards

seeking the ‘quick fixes’ to immediate problems, with fear of adverse publicity and media

reaction to any perceived failure. New technologies open up new channels of communication

from the citizenry, and there is greater social inclusion at the superficial level, with public

consultation processes, but a resultant move towards concentration upon dealing with

complaints, rather than with serving needs and improving services. As such, there is

reinforcement of top–down and fragmented government, lack of real public accountability

and an ever-increasing gap between the reality and potential for service effectiveness.

3.1.4. Technology serves

Here, there is a combination of technology facilitating increased access by the citizenry

and development of a proactive form of civic governance that is based upon meaningful

dialogue between citizens and government. Elected members and their officers are enabled to

act at the local level for all members of society, including the ‘invisibles’ and the ‘excluded’.

National government settles the subsidiarity debate in favor of local democracy and supports

trailblazing projects that demonstrate the competence of civic governance, for example, in the

field of social housing. Here, the new technologies facilitate a new form of joined up

government from the bottom up.

Each of the subgroups presented their scenario outline to the full participant group, with

the key differences between each clearly differentiating the possibilities for a range of

1 ‘Kailyard’ is an old Scots term for ‘cabbage patch’ and was selected by the participants in the subgroup to

describe a level of minimum subsistence for members of society, despite vast amounts of expended energy.


plausible futures. In Forward to the past, there is seen a downward spiral, a vicious circle

towards greater centralization and limited or no local government in the future. In Free

enterprise, local government is unencumbered by bureaucracy, but there is delivery of

‘premium services’ for those who can/will pay, but with increased polarization, disenfran-

chisement and fallout in society. In the People’s kailyard, there is mediocrity and, surrounded

by legislation, cross-organizational boundary problems, nonstandard protocols, etc.; there is

much talk of change, but a continuous finding of new problems to talk about, so no change. In

Technology serves, there is a future in which the group’s common aspirations, visions and

desires for change are seen to be enabled.

Through discussion of the underlying trends and major driving forces that underpinned

each of the scenarios, the Council themselves derived an initial set of key implications that

were seen to be fundamental to their immediate thinking/acting, if they were to be effective in

exerting whatever influence they might reasonably have over the reality of the future that will

unfold over the next 5 years. These were:

� Northshire Council must lead from the front, with bold steps in developing an integrated

and inclusive approach to technological innovation. The dangers of the small step and

short-term approach were highlighted in the Kailyard scenario.� The Council must promote democracy in action, by making the new technologies serve the

people and by using technology to develop ‘civic governance’. They must bring local

government closer to the community level, developing high levels of ability to listen and

respond to citizen wants and needs. They must develop transparency and accountability in

their deeds and actions, with policies that are meaningful to the public.� New technologies must be used to demonstrate the competence of local government,

achieving public confidence and support through the provision of responsive, community-

oriented services, more customized services, whilst at the same time applying the

technologies to support inclusion and to reduce inequalities.� Northshire Council must use the new technologies in order to promote itself as the ‘home

for sustainable value creation’.� The Council must proactively promote and lobby for settlement of the subsidiarity debate

in favor of governance at the local level.� Finally, in developing short-term solutions to immediate problems, the Council must watch

out that long-term aspirations remain the guiding light.

From the outcomes of the scenario project and the resultant debate within Northshire

Council on the above implications, there have been strategic decisions taken in support of

supporting local democracy in action, promoting inclusion, quality and best value and

sustainability across the Council’s operations, fostering the concept of joined-up government

and seeking to foster the relationship with central government, of whatever political

persuasion, whilst promoting the case for Northshire in the widest political and business

arenas. In addition to these strategic decisions, there has been operational action in seeking to

establish a web-based knowledge and transaction system that will promote a citizen- and

business-focused interface between new integrated service demand and provision by the


Council and its partners, whether based upon integrated systems, or a ‘virtual integration’ of

legacy systems.

4. Discussion

In the project undertaken with Northshire Council, participants undertook a 10-week

strategic conversation process. They worked primarily with their own current knowledge,

but were supported and facilitated in challenging their thinking by introduction of external

‘expertise’, and by open, nonhierarchical debate in a nonthreatening environment in which

innovation, novelty—even the absurd—were seen as acceptable.Whilst the majority of the data

and knowledge input to the scenario process was existent within the organization prior to the

project and had informed the first-round submission for the Modernizing Government funding,

it was held in discrete chunks, lacking the overall integration that would enable exploration of

the widest range of possible and plausible outcomes. Overcoming the lack of integrated yet

divergent thinking was the prime aim of the project, helping organizational members to make

sense of the complexities and ambiguities of their multiple reality world-views. The participants

developed scenarios that held explicit meaning for them at the individual and group levels and

identified implications in relation to their understanding of Northshire Council’s structure and

service requirements. They then used their own surfaced implications of these scenarios to

inform analysis of current structure and service and to devise strategic options for further

investigation and implementation. These informed the Council’s revised and successful

second-round submission for Modernizing Government funding.

In the project, the consideration of outcomes beyond those predicated on current options in a

proactive manner and without threat of immediate negative kickback was highlighted in the

response to the People’s kailyard scenario. Whilst all four scenarios were seen as plausible by

the participants, and all contained some predetermined elements and some consideration of

outcomes of uncertainties, it was in the Kailyard scenario that the plausibility of future

outcomes caused critical reappraisal of current option preferences. There was deep initial shock

within the group to the realization that this scenario outlined a world in which the best intention

of the Council, in seeking to push forward with quick steps to ICT implementation and

increasing citizen access, might prove counterproductive in the longer term. They saw a

situation in which the Council invested in ICT in the immediate future, whilst the citizenry and

business increased their skills and access to technology. These effects combined such that ease

of access and free communication enabled the public and business to bombard the Council with

inquiries, problems, calls for service, to which they were unable to respond due to constraints

placed upon them by a powerful central government. The notion that the Council’s actions

would becomemore andmore PR oriented, with quick fixes to the superficial aspects of service

and long-term deterioration at a fundamental level, was seen as highly plausible. It was also

seen as very likely if decisions on rapid uptake of ICT were taken in isolation of wider and

longer-term strategic thinking. Within a matter of weeks following the scenario workshop, the

Kailyard had become a widely discussed concept within the Council offices. There was

evidence of change to mindsets and patterns of behavior that led to reconsideration of current


ICT strategy and to commitment to the project for appraisal of citizen- and business-focused

ICT, with consideration of the systems for associated service delivery.

5. Comparison of scenario planning with alternative futures methodologies

Our scenario-thinking intervention contained several distinctive components:

1. the elicitation and exploration of key issues and trends that will impact the future—as

surfaced by the widest possible range of decision-makers through interview—in order to

establish the recurring concepts and critical uncertainties, and to enable a strategic

conversation about the nature of the future.

2. the elucidation of driving forces that underpin the identified trends and uncertainties, the

range of possible and plausible polar outcomes of these and exploration of the perceived

relationships of chronology and causality between them, based on the scenario team’s

clustering and synthesis of them.

3. the synthesis and integration of external expert opinion and knowledge with internal

knowledge to inform the scenario team’s identification of driving forces.

4. the identification of key implications of the different scenarios to inform action. Here, the

focus is on identifying robust options that will perform well whatever the nature of the

future—within the limits of the possible permutated by the identified outcomes of all

driving forces, within the scenario framework of the two high-impact/unpredictability

scenario dimensions.

Our approach can be contrasted with alternative future methodologies that are also

designed to ‘‘help inform perceptions, alternatives and choices about the future’’ [25]. For

example, in Delphi applications [26,27] the focus is, by contrast, on determining the

collective opinion of a group of experts on a well-defined issue that is to be forecast. Four

necessary features characterize a Delphi procedure, namely, anonymity, iteration, controlled

feedback of the panelists’ judgments and statistical aggregation of group members’ responses.

Anonymity is achieved using self-administered questionnaires (on either paper or computer).

By allowing the group members to express their opinions and judgments privately, one may

be able to diminish the effects for social pressures, as from dominant or dogmatic individuals,

or from a majority. Ideally, this should allow the individuals to consider each idea based on

merit alone, rather than based on potentially invalid criteria (such as the status of an idea’s

proponent). Furthermore, by iterating the questionnaire over a number of rounds, one gives

panelists the opportunity to change their opinions and judgments without fear of losing face

in the eyes of the (anonymous) others in the group.

Our approach can also be contrasted with Environmental Scanning, where the focus is on

the identification of trends in economics, technology, politics, ecology and social/culture

factors [28]. Environmental Scanning is usually a very separate activity from strategy making,

and identified trends are often written up in semi-annual reports for consideration by strategy

makers [29].


Our approach can also be contrasted with decision-analytic approaches to making strategic

decisions in the face of uncertainty since—contrary to ‘standard’ applications of decision

analysis [18]—participants in the scenario project were able to consider outcomes to critical

uncertainties in the environment prior to considering the strategic options for action that may

be open to them. In decision analysis, options for action are determined first, and considered

outcomes are predicated upon the selected options—‘If we do this, what might happen?’ [18].

We would argue our scenario approach opened up the participants’ thinking to diverge beyond

their previous conceptualizations of the limits of the possible, but at a stage when they are able

to take proactive vigilant action. That is to say, they were able to reconsider and redesign

strategies in response to threats perceived at a theoretical level before they were manifested in

reality. Where outcomes considered are limited by options that are constructed early on in the

process, such as in decision analysis, reactive response to the process induced, increased threat

of unfavorable futures is likely to be defensive avoidance of the decision dilemma [23].

Reviewers of the contributions of futures methodologies have argued [25] that a key focus

should be on developing tools for understanding how structural change will occur and how it

can be detached. They also argue for closer ties between futures methodologies and the

planning/implementation of strategic response. In our view, scenario planning serves these

purposes better than any other futures methodology. Nevertheless, our approach to scenario

planning is but one of many, and it is to document similarities and differences between extant

scenario-planning approaches that we now turn.

6. Differences between our approach to scenario planning and alternative approaches

There is no one established methodology for constructing scenarios, methods range from

simple unstructured models based on intuition and reasoned judgment to highly sophisticated

probabilistic algorithms and causal simulation models. Scenario methodologies have been

classified into three categories [30].

6.1. Intuitive logic

This category of approaches is based on the model developed in parallel by Royal Dutch/

Shell and SRI International [31] in what are widely regarded as the seminal articles on the

subject of scenarios. As implied by its name, the Intuitive logic model relies on the develop-

ment of scenarios from ‘‘disciplined intuition’’ [32]. The differentiating feature of this category

of scenarios approaches is that they do not use mathematical or computer simulation models,

hence, the fact that they are also known as ‘‘heuristic’’ approaches [33–35]. Our approach can

be categorized under this heading [1].

6.2. Trend-impact analysis

The trend-impact approach (TIA) is the model most often associated with the Futures

Group, based in Connecticut, and is concerned with the effects of trends. In outline, the


methodology is relatively simple; time series data is collected from which existing trends of

key variables are identified and extrapolated into the future using standard extrapolation

techniques. Attempts are then made to remedy the deficiencies of the initial extrapolation by

explicitly identifying ‘‘impacting factors’’ which are evaluated as to their time-dependent

probability of occurrence and their importance. Having done this, an adjusted extrapolation of

impacting events is produced and Monte Carlo simulations are usually performed, which

simulates the occurrence of the impacting events, to arrive at a ‘‘domain of uncertainty’’ around

the original time series forecasts. Finally, scenario narratives which describe the impacting

events are then built around the domain of uncertainty [30].

The advantage of this methodology is that it successfully integrates traditional forecasting

methods with qualitative data [35]. However, no attempt is made to evaluate the cross-impact

of variables, which suggests that the effectiveness of the methodology is limited to situations

where only one key variable is being evaluated. (For a detailed account of the TIA

methodology, see Refs. [35,36]).

6.3. Cross-impact analysis

The cross-impact analysis (CIA) model is associated with the analysis of complex systems

and is the generic name for a family of techniques, the conceptual foundation and

methodological framework of which is generally attributed to Helmer and Gordon who

developed it while at the RAND [35,37]. These techniques attempt to identify not only the

individual probabilities of impacting events as in TIA, but also the interactions between

impacting events, i.e., the conditional probability of each event given that various other

preceding events do or do not occur.

The theory underlying CIA is that acknowledging only the individual probabilities of events

results in a collection of ‘‘unprocessed initial probabilities.’’ It has long been recognised that

one of the major issues in forecasting is that of the interdependencies of events [38]. Events

seldom occur in isolation, therefore, it is only when a matrix of the interdependencies between

events is examined that a set of ‘‘corrected probabilities’’ can be obtained [39,40].

Since its foundations in the 1960s, a number of proprietary CIA methodologies have been

developed, the best known being:

� INTERAX (Interactive Cross-impact Simulation) developed by the Centre for Futures

Research in the University of Southern California Graduate School of Business.� BASICS (Battelle Scenario Inputs to Corporate Strategies) which is an adaptation of the

cross-impact technique developed at the RAND and adapted and elaborated upon as a

collaborative effort between the various offices of the Battelle Memorial Institute.� MICMAC (Cross-impact Matrices-multiplications Applied to Classification) and SMIC

(French acronym for Cross-impact Systems and Matrices) both developed by Duperrin and

Godet at the Centre for Prospective and Evaluation (CPE) in France.

(These specific CIA methodologies are widely described in the literature, for example,

Refs. [35,39,41–43]).


Both TIA and CIA are sophisticated, highly quantified scenario-modeling techniques and

can claim to be more scientifically rigorous methodologies than the intuitive logic methodo-

logy. Despite this, survey evidence [44] is that although popular with ‘‘think tanks’’ and

academics, it is ‘‘overwhelmingly the case that they are not representative of corporate

practice.’’ The respondents indicated a strong preference for intuitive logic-based scenario

methodologies that are less quantitative.

Nevertheless, despite differences, the central concept underlying scenario-planning

models is that there are some elements of the future environment which can be predicted

within reasonable confidence intervals, but there are other variables which, by their nature,

are fundamentally unpredictable. The predictable environmental variables are widely

referred to in the literature as ‘‘predetermined’’ because their outcomes in the future are

more or less inevitable as a consequence of existing causal relationships; the unpredictable

environmental elements are generally described as ‘‘uncertainties.’’ The objective of

scenario planning then is the examination and exploration of the uncertain variables in

terms of their possible future outcomes. Examining environmental variables alone (cf.

outline of environmental scanning, above) is insufficient; scenarios should also contemplate

the strategic actions of competitors and the firm itself [45]. Although perhaps not always

made explicit, some form of stakeholder analysis is implicit in most of the models discussed

in the literature.

The central problem in scenario development, then, is the fact that aside from a limited set

of tools, the task is essentially a creative one and the process is ‘‘more art than science’’ [46].

All of the procedures described in the literature rely heavily on subjective judgments and a

well-planned group facilitation process. In our experience, facilitation skills are of paramount

importance to produce ‘‘process gain’’ within interacting management teams [1].

It must be pointed out, however, that where organizations, or powerful individuals within

them, are committed to strategies that are not seen to be robust within particular scenarios and

cannot be easily or conveniently changed, the results of the scenario analysis may not be the

same as we experienced. Hodgkinson and Wright [47] discuss a failed scenario intervention,

in which defensive avoidance results from the realization that there is no realistic hope to find

a viable alternative option to current action.

7. Conclusions

We accept the context-specific nature of our work, with an organization stimulated by self-

interest in acquiring central government funding and with a history of non-partisan and

citizen-oriented governance. In addition, we recognize that Northshire Council’s entry into

this intervention process was reactive as a result of the failure of their first-stage bid for

Modernizing Government funding. Finally, we acknowledge that the true findings and

relevance of the project require appraisal over the time scale of the scenarios—to the year

2005. However, we consider that the following interim conclusions contribute to the debate

on organizational change, particularly in the changing environment of the public sector as it

seeks to apply private sector values, measures and tools for management.


We would argue that the outcomes of this intervention are indicative of changed

mindsets and behaviors derived specifically from the nature of the self-directed learning

process of scenario development, albeit within an organization that was already committed

to change, and to internally generated solutions to externally focused problems. We

consider, however, that this commitment lacked an effective vehicle for investigation and

understanding of the range of complexities and ambiguities that were to be found within

the driving forces for change. The scenario process enabled the participants to surface and

share their individual perceptions, beliefs, values, concerns, etc., to structure these

thematically, without reduction and exclusion and to make different sets of sense of the

ambiguities, the conflicts and contradictions, developing a shared framework within which

to see different world-views.

The role of external agents as facilitators of process which, whilst new to them, involves

the internal participants in self-managed critical reflection, learning and sense making, is in

contrast to the ‘normal’ management consultancy role. In the facilitation of internally

generated, knowledge-focused change [9] the role of the external agent is not conceived as

deliverer of expert solutions [8] based upon reduction and striving for unity. Rather, it is seen

as provider of input to actor-generated solutions, supporter of divergent thinking and

presenter of a wider range of limits of possibility to those internal organizational actors.

The combination of external expertise at a general and theoretical level, combined with

internal expertise at the particular and operational level, enabled conception and consideration

of options that were novel, innovative, yet grounded in the ‘reality’ of Northshire. In this

respect, we support the notion of the internal/external input as a ‘both/and’ option [20], rather

than as an ‘either/or’ consideration as discussed by Schoemaker [2]. The combination of

internal, organization-driven investigation and idea generation supports generation of

meaning and intellectual ownership, but is combined with external inspirational conceptu-

alizations based upon surprise and novelty.

Our case analysis supports the use of scenario planning as a tool for establishing the

limits of possibility and plausibility for ‘the future’, understanding the perceived causal

relationships and exploring the limits of the critical uncertainties within the external

environment prior to determination of options. As such, scenario planning is a process-

oriented tool that promotes dissenting opinion, encourages divergent thinking and does not

apply selection and exclusion in search of a causa finalis [15], a unity of beliefs and

values within the organization. Rather, it provides a means of generating shared, causally

generated understanding of plausible futures, some of which may be unfavorable to the

organization and its current strategic intent. These may, however, be used to generate

shared action in support of the causa efficiens [15] of organizational intent, without

development of shared vision [11], organizational coherence [10], or any other form of

single-reality unity. This maintenance of divergence of opinion, belief, perception within

an overall unifying frame of limits of possibility is in contrast to the reductionist unity of

decision analysis and of Delphi, and the disunity—possibly fragmented nihilism—of

unstructured group decision making. Our comparative views on scenario planning,

decision analysis, Delphi, environmental scanning and unstructured group process are

given in Fig. 2.


In short, our case example supports the use of scenario planning as an organizational

process-focused intervention that enhances individual and team views about the nature of the

future. This enhanced understanding is, as we have demonstrated, likely to invoke an action-

orientated response.

Fig. 2. The components of the future methodologies.


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Organization Studies, in press.

George Cairns is Senior Lecturer in Management. His research focuses on the relationships

between the social, physical, technological and organizational environments of the work-

place. He has worked with major organizations on workplace appraisal and design and has

also been involved in scenario projects for organizational change in local government. He

has given invited presentations on workplace scenarios in the UK, Poland, Czech Republic

and Australia.

George Wright is Professor of Decision Making, with consultancy experience in the areas of

scenario planning and decision making in the UK and Asia. He has also worked in the

development of expert systems for strategic advantage in financial services organisations. He

has published eight books and over 100 articles on the role and quality of judgment in

forecasting and decision making.


Ron Bradfield is Lecturer in General and Strategic Management. Ron previously worked as

an accountant and spent 15 years in various senior management positions in the UK, Canada

and the USA. He has conducted many strategy and scenario-planning programmes in the

USA, UK, Europe and SE Asia. His research interest focuses on institutional learning and

sense-making processes in strategic planning.

Kees van der Heijden was until recently General and Strategic Management Professor. He

was previously Head of the Business Environment Division of Group Planning at Royal

Dutch/Shell, London, where he was responsible for the development and application of

Shell’s scenario planning, including monitoring and analysing the business environment and

communicating with top management on strategic implications. Kees is Co-founder and

Network Member of Global Business Network, Emeryville, CA, and is author of Scenarios:

The Art of Strategic Conversation.

George Burt is Lecturer in Business Strategy and the Management of Change. His research

interest focuses on scenario planning, and he has recently conducted scenario planning for a

major organization in Malaysia. He was previously a management consultant with P-E

International and Coopers and Lybrand in London, West Africa and Glasgow, preceded by a

period in banking.


Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning

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