The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean in International Security

PANTEION UNIVERSITY OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, COMMUNICATION AND CULTRURE

DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL, EUROPEAN AND AREA STUDIES

The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean

on International Security

By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos

8/30/2013

The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security


The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean in International

Security

Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 2

The geography of East Mediterranean ...................................................................................... 3

The historical role of East Mediterranean ................................................................................. 5

The East Mediterranean today .................................................................................................. 8

The contribution of the East Mediterranean in Energy security ............................................. 17

The role of the area as a producer of energy resources ..................................................... 24

The role of the area as a transit region for global energy production ................................ 34

The role of the region on energy security for the EU/EU member states .......................... 41

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 46

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 49



Introduction

Inspired by the continuous twists and changes in the economic, political, cultural and

geopolitical areas in one of the most historic regions of the world, this research aims in

assisting the development of a cohesive understanding of the contemporary contribution of

the Eastern Mediterranean in International Security.

In order to achieve this goal, we will attempt to comprehend the geography of the region

and its role in the rise of some of the most profound civilizations throughout the course of

human history. Later, we will proceed further by examining the situation today in the region

under the spectrums of the Hellenic-Turkish rivalry, the Arab Uprisings, the Arab-Israeli

conflict, the monetary and economic crisis. Furthermore we will examine the importance of

the region for a major global stakeholder, the European Union and its member-states.

Our main objective will be to highlight the aspect of energy security, in which the Eastern

Mediterranean holds a significant role –especially─ nowadays, if we take under

consideration its active contribution in the transit of energy resources, its potential rise as a

significant producer region of an adequate proportion of global energy supply. Additionally,

we will analyze the impact of several destabilizing effects on the role of the region in

International Energy Security.

At this point, I would like to thank my friends and family, whose encouragement and

assistance has been the greatest motivation anyone could ever ask for.

Furthermore, I would like to thank all my university Professors, whose presence during my

first 4 academic years, have inspired me to pursue passionately greater knowledge in the

fields of International Relations and Security.

Additionally, I feel obliged to thank all the embassy and government officials that

cooperated with me and offered their assistance, support and knowledge during my

research, their contribution has been more than essential, because their ideas, point of

views and practical experience are those that affect the decision making process by a great

deal.

Last but not least, I would like express my sincere gratitude to my Professor Constantinos

Filis, for his continuous and vital assistance and guidance during my research and writing of

this essay, because without his contribution this paper wouldn’t have been possible. I would

also like to thank Prof. Filis for his lectures, which motivated me in researching one of the

most prolific and continuously evolving subjects of International Security, the Energy

Security.



The geography of East Mediterranean

At this part of this research paper, we will examine the geography of the Eastern

Mediterranean, in an attempt to understand its position in the globe, its boundaries, the

geographical key points it includes.

The Mediterranean Sea was created through the movements of the Earth’s plates. When the

ancient landmass of Pangaea broke apart about 250 million years ago a huge ocean, the

Tethys, evolved around its middle. This ocean extended to the north of today’s Alps and to

the east as far as the Ural Mountains. When Africa and Europe started moving towards each

other this ocean became smaller. The Mediterranean Sea is what is left of this large ancient

ocean.

The Mediterranean Sea is a very large sea that is bounded by Europe, Africa and Asia and

stretches from the Strait of Gibraltar on the west to the Dardanelles and the Suez Canal on

the east. It is almost completely enclosed aside from these narrow locations.1 Because it is

almost landlocked the Mediterranean has very limited tides and it is warmer and saltier than

the Atlantic Ocean. This is because evaporation exceeds precipitation and runoff and

circulation of the sea's waters does not occur as easily as it would if were more connected to

the ocean, however, enough water flows into the sea from the Atlantic Ocean that is water

level does not fluctuate much. The topography of the land surrounding the Mediterranean

Sea is varied and there is an extremely rugged coastline in is northern areas. High mountains

and steep, rocky cliffs are common here. In other areas though the coastline is flatter and

dominated by desert.

Geographically, the Mediterranean Sea is divided into two different basins - the Western

Basin and the Eastern Basin. The Western Basin extends from the Cape of Trafalgar in Spain

and the Cape of Spartel in Africa in the west to Tunisia's Cape Bon in the east. The Eastern

Basin stretches from eastern boundary of the Western Basin to the coasts of Syria and

Palestine2.

The Eastern Mediterranean consists of: the Adriatic Sea, the Ionian Sea, the Aegean Sea, the

Libyan Sea, the Cilician Sea, the Levantine Sea and their surrounding areas, which include the

majority of the countries located in the Mediterranean Sea. The main countries among

others are Albania, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Egypt, Turkey, Libya, Israel,

the Palestinian Authorities, Lebanon and Syria. It can also be considered that the United

Kingdom has territorial presence in the region since it controls overseas territories on the

Island of Cyprus.

The Eastern Basin of the Mediterranean Sea includes two of the most important chokepoints

for global trade, the Suez Canal and the Bosporus. These two chokepoints possess an

extremely important strategic and geopolitical role in global trade, as they connect

1 G. Tsaltas, ” Geography in the International Studies”, Athens, I. Sideris Publications, 2011, p.156. 2 Ibid.



European markets with Asian ones and link the Black Sea - and of course the oil and gas

produced from the Caspian Sea – to the Mediterranean.

Furthermore, despite the fact that the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea are not

considered to be a cohesive, unified geographical region as the Black Sea is considered to

belong in the region of Eastern Europe, there is an unquestionable connection between the

two of them, as both Seas share the same marine ecosystem3, their past, present and future

are deeply intertwined.

The Eastern Mediterranean also includes a great portion of the Fertile Crescent4, which has

been essential for the development of all the civilizations that existed in the region. The

Fertile Crescent includes a roughly crescent-shaped area of relatively fertile land which

probably had a more moderate, agriculturally productive climate in the past than today,

especially in Mesopotamia and the Nile valley. 5

The Fertile Crescent in its wider extension corresponds exactly to the region that plays a

dominant role in the Hebrew traditions of Genesis; it also contains the ancient countries of

Babylonia, Assyria, Egypt and Phoenicia from which the Greeks and Romans derived

civilization. This age-old belief that the earliest known culture originated in the Fertile

Crescent has been confirmed by the development of radiocarbon dating since 1948. It is now

known that incipient agriculture and village agglomerations there must be dated back to

about 8000 B.C., if not earlier, and that the use of irrigation followed rapidly.6

Based on the above, might be safe to agree with the remarks of Prof. G. Tsaltas that the

Mediterranean might be the most important regional sea in the world7, not because of its

importance in the modern history, but in an accumulated measurement starting from the

very first civilizations and all those things that it is owed to them from the modern man,

whether those might be scientific or technological discoveries and inventions or social and

cultural traditions that have shaped humanity and made everything we have achieved as a

species possible.

In the next part of this paper, we will analyze how the region of Eastern Mediterranean

affected the course of human history throughout the centuries, discussing the major

civilizations that grew and developed in the region.

3 G. Tsaltas, ”Geography in the International Studies”, Athens, I. Sideris Publications, 2011, p.150. 4 J.H. Breasted, ”Ancient Times: a History of the Early World”, Boston, Ginn and Company, 1916. 5 ”Fertile Crescent”, Encyclopædia Britannica Online, Retrieved 05 August, 2013, from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/205250/Fertile-Crescent 6 Ibid. 7 G. Tsaltas, ”Geography in the International Studies”, Athens, I. Sideris Publications, 2011, p.156.

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/205250/Fertile-Crescent



The historical role of East Mediterranean

In our search for knowledge and understanding of the world around us, we must never

neglect the past, as the past is essential if we are to comprehend the cyclical evolutions of

history. As Gilpin says, ‘believing that the past is not merely prologue and that the present

does not have a monopoly on the truth, we have drawn on historical experience’.8

From the beginning of human history, as it is written by the scholars of those times,

Mediterranean has been the cradle of civilization, the birthplace and the deathbed of

empires, cultures and religions, especially the Eastern half of it. Its pivotal role in shaping the

history and the future of mankind is evident and undeniable.

Additional proof that explicitly underlines the great influence that Mediterranean had on the

civilizations that lived and prospered around its shores is extracted by the several names it

was given. The term Mediterranean derives from the Latin word mediterraneus, meaning "in

the middle of earth" or "between lands"; as it is between the continents of Africa, Asia and

Europe. The Greek name Mesogeios (Μεσόγειος), is similarly acknowledging it as the middle

of the earth. The Romans commonly called it Mare Nostrum9 (Latin, "Our Sea").In the Bible,

it was primarily known as the "Great Sea".

The Eastern Mediterranean has been a very prolific region, since it hosted several major

actors in the international chessboard for the past millennia; such as the Minoans,

Phoenicians, the ancient Greek City-States, Persia, Egypt, the Roman Empire, Byzantium,

Venice, the Ottoman Empire and the British Empire.

Throughout the course of history, the area of the Eastern Mediterranean has given birth to

some of the most important religions that ever existed on our planet: Christianity, Judaism

and Islam, which account for at least 3 out of the 7 billion of human population on earth. All

of these three religions consider as a holy city of theirs the city of Jerusalem in modern

Israel. This fact has two very important consequences; a global and a regional.

The global consequence is that because of this tri-partite holiness of the area, a new type of

war emerged in the international scene of politics, at the very list as a reason or an excuse to

go at war against another international actor. Until that point, no war had taken place

against people who believed in different a deity. The Egyptians, the Romans , the Greeks, the

Persians waged several wars against people who didn’t shared the same religious

background, but that religious difference was never a part of this conflict. Explicitly,

Alexander the Great and then the Romans, who both established vast empires, did not

attempt to alter the religious habits of their new subjects, on the contrary they respected

them and allowed a respectable freedom of religious affairs to the respective local

populations.

8 R. Gilpin, ”War and Change in World Politics”, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1981, p. 11. 9 O.Tellegen-Couperus, ”Short History of Roman Law”, London, Routledge, 1993.



However, as soon as Christianity and Islam became widespread, there have been numerous

religious wars, with sole, publicly mentioned at least, purpose to punish the non-believers,

reclaim the holy lands or spread the word of god. Of course always we will have to calculate

the economic benefits, which would arise for those that would win the wars, but still the fact

remains that a great number of soldiers and kings, that took place in these holy wars were

moved mostly by religious sentiments.

In other words, the region of Eastern Mediterranean gave birth to what later was called war

of ideas or ideologies. It started with the power struggle between ancient Athens and

Sparta, which resulted in a war between two political governance ideologies -democracy and

oligarchy- and then the religious hatred and wars that plague our societies until today.

The regional consequence is that the city of Jerusalem and the wider region of Palestine

have been contested till today by the Jewish and the Arab people and has led to almost ten

wars between these people during the last 60 years.

Arguably, the region of Eastern Mediterranean has been one of the most war stricken areas

in the world throughout the human history, if not the most war stricken area. All these

confrontations between the great civilizations and empires and their lesser neighbors

definitely place the region as a major contender. Evidently, the people of the region

meddled a lot with military strategy and tactics, military education and training inheriting to

the world a great amount of knowledge, which was, later on, revolutionized and improved

by the next generations. The ancient Greek city-state of Sparta is an excellent example. The

Spartans, perhaps the most iconic and feared army of the antiquity, are famous for their

feats, bravery, discipline, organization, strategic and tactical prowess even today. Many of

the contemporary military arts can be traced back to the Spartan Warfare techniques, such

as scouting and reconnaissance, discipline, logistics planning and chain of command.

Another example is the Roman naval strategy used against Attila in the 2nd Cartagena War,

where Romans exploited their naval supremacy to transfer reinforcements and prevent

Attila from receiving his10. Moreover, the Romans are praised for their development and use

of infrastructure for military purposes such as roads for the faster transportation of troops

and supplies.

Another quite obvious reason of the great importance of the region during the human

history is the scientific, technological, social and cultural achievements of the people that

inhabited that region. From writing, seafaring, astronomy, mathematics, sculpture, painting,

architecture, geometry, literature, medicine, metallurgy, coinage to trade, governance, laws.

Unquestionably, modern Western civilization owes a lot to the ancient Greek and Roman

civilizations, which are rightfully considered the foundations of our modern western

societies.

The Eastern Mediterranean always had tremendous economic importance. As stated in the

part of this paper regarding the geography of the region of Eastern Mediterranean, this

region is the crossroad between three continents Europe, Asia and Africa. The trade

potential from coastal areas of these three continents is huge, if we take under

10 Alfred Thayer Mahan, ”The Influence of Sea Power Upon History”, New York: Sagamore Press, 1957.



consideration the great numbers of raw materials –gems, gold, silver, copper, iron, lumber,

stone-, manufactured products –glass, papyrus, jewelry-, food, animals and slaves that could

be exchanged between the populations of these areas. Additionally, we are obliged to

consider the great influence of the Bosporus straits, the Silk Road and later on the Suez

Canal in the trading capabilities of the region. Before the opening of the Suez Canal, the Silk

Road was the only reliable trade route between the people of Europe and the Far East. The

Italian States of Venice and Florence owe much of their power and might to their ability to

have consistent and unhindered access to the Silk Road and the products being transported

through it and then selling them to the rest of Europe.

The very same reasons made the City of Byzantium, known as well as New Rome,

Constantinople and Istanbul one of the greatest commercial cities of the world. However,

Constantinople also possessed another advantage, as it is located on the Bosporus and

controls the strategic chokepoint of all the trade originating from the Black Sea, the Caspian

Sea and as a consequence the commodities originating from Russia, which during these

periods of human history were the main food supply of Europe.

Cyprus and Egypt always have been great strategic and economic centers of the Eastern

Mediterranean. Cyprus’ geographic location makes it a fantastic trade center and also

enables it to be an exceptional naval base through which its controller can exert control and

influence in the regional sea trade routes. On the other hand, Egypt has been a major

producer of food for the region and this always resulted in being considered a very

important territory for those who controlled it. The Eastern Roman Empire was extremely

dependent for its food supply from Egypt and Syria. Egypt alone was estimated to generate

over one third of the revenue of the Empire during the 6th century A.D.11

Egypt’s importance was significantly augmented when on November 17th 1869 the Suez

Canal was made operational and open for navigation. The Suez Canal is considered to be the

shortest link between the east and the west due to its unique geographic location; it is an

important international navigation canal linking between the Mediterranean Sea at Port Said

and the Red Sea at Suez.12 Ever since the British Government purchased the 44% of the

company that operated the Canal from Pasha Said, the Canal became a vital part of Britain’s

strategy in maintaining its maritime power and colonial interests. The strategic importance

of the canal and by extension of Egypt itself for the British Empire is evident, especially when

someone considers the efforts and the lives spent during the 2nd World War in order to

prevent Field Marshal Erwin Rommel from capturing Egypt and the Suez Canal.

We can understand that the role of the Eastern Mediterranean during the ancient times and

till the first decades of the 20th century has been very important, as it was the region that

gave birth to sciences, religions, cultures and great civilizations that shaped the western

societies and the European States System that dominated the international politics until the

11 H. Papasotiriou, ”Grand Strategy of Byzantium 6th-11th century A.D. ”, Poiotita Publications, 2007. 12 ”Importance of the Canal”, Suez Canal Authority, Retrieved 05 August, 2013, from http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/sc.aspx?show=10 .

http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/sc.aspx?show=10



early 20th century.13 In the following part of this paper, we will see the role of the region

nowadays and examine its role in the contemporary international system.

The East Mediterranean today

Nowadays, the Eastern Mediterranean has been playing an integral role to the international

system as it holds a major role in international peace and security, because of its economic

importance -as a major sea trade route for the European Union and other regional

stakeholders-. Additionally, it is located adjacently to the Middle East and North Africa, two

of the most turbulent and unstable regions in the world today, this results in a substantially

enhanced role in the maintenance of international peace and security.

From a geopolitical perspective the eastern basin of the Mediterranean is the closest access

point, for the heartland power, to hot waters and the open sea14. Until the end of the

Crimean War in 1856, Russia was constantly seeking to gain access to this area in order to

combat its inherent inability to access the open sea and actively pursue the development of

maritime trade and military capabilities.

The Eastern Mediterranean always played a pivotal role in resource production and

transportation, whether that was Egyptian and Hyper-Caucasian grain or Phoenician lumber

and glass or Greek bauxite or iron or gold or oil and natural gas. Since the end of the Second

World War, for almost 70 years, the Middle East and North Africa regions have been the

scenery of several other conflicts - mainly the Arab-Israeli wars, the Gulf Wars, Afghanistan

and the latest Arab Uprisings with Libya, Syria and Egypt included.

If we wish to achieve a basic understanding of the region nowadays, we must briefly take

under consideration five subjects, which will facilitate our comprehension of the shifting

dynamics of the region. Those five subjects are: the continuous and increasing presence of

foreign military in the region, the Hellenic-Turkish rivalry including the issue of Cyprus, the

Arab-Israeli conflicts, the economic crisis, the Arab Uprisings and the role of the European

Union as a regional actor.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, there are several foreign military facilities including several

US Air Force and Naval facilities in Italy, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria and Israel, two UK military

facilities in Cyprus and the Russian Naval facility in the port of Tartus in Syria, which is the

last Russian military facility outside the Former Soviet Union15. Additionally it can be said

that People’s Republic of China has increased interests in the port of Piraeus, which

13 Adam Watson, “The Evolution of International Society. A comparative Historical Analysis”, London, Routledge, 1992, p.480 14 C.Koliopoulos, Grand Strategy of Ancient Sparta 750-192 B.C., Athens, Piotita publications, 2007, p.25. 15 Andrew E. Kramer, "Russia Sending Warships on Maneuvers Near Syria", The New York Times, Retrieved 22 August 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/middleeast/russia-sends-warships-on-maneuvers-near-syria.html?_r=0.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/middleeast/russia-sends-warships-on-maneuvers-near-syria.html?_r=0




functions as its main trade port for its ever-increasing exports towards the European Union

and its Member States.

Alongside with the heavy presence of overseas military facilities in the region, exists an

increasing number of warships in the region. Ever since the end of the 2nd World War the

Mediterranean Basin has been home to the 6th US Navy Fleet16 - as the Mediterranean has

always 17been seen as a “highway” for the projection of US power “deep into the heart of

the landmass of Eurasia and Africa”- , while almost 14 months ago Russian President

Vladimir Putin announced plans to recreate on a permanent basis the Russian Navy Fleet in

the Mediterranean in a bid to protect and advance national interests and security18. This

move was a follow-up of Russian Government’s previous decision on July 2012 to dispatch

11 warships to the region, a move which was seen as an attempt to support the Syrian

Government of Bashar Al-Assad in its internal struggle with opposition fighters and to deter

any potential intervention from other regional actors19.

The Hellenic-Turkish Rivalry can be traced back to the early Medieval Ages, when the Turks

started capturing and occupying provinces of the Byzantine Empire and finally annexed it

with the fall of Constantinople on 1453 A.D. and founded the Ottoman Empire, which

expanded so much that it controlled the whole Eastern Mediterranean and even more, since

at its peak it possessed provinces near Central Europe. After almost 400 years of occupation

and several failed rebellions, the Hellenic population successfully took arms on 1821 and

after almost 10 years of war, it was proclaimed an independent state. The newly founded

Greece has ever since been in a rivalry with Ottoman Empire, and its successor Turkey,

which several times dragged the two nations into conflict, culminating in the events of 1974,

where Turkey invaded the Republic of Cyprus and caused the military occupation of

approximately 36,3% of the island and installed a puppet state in the occupied territories,

which only Turkey itself recognizes as a legitimate state. Especially after the tragic events of

the summer of 1974, Greece and Turkey have been dragged into a continuous arms race,

with both countries investing billions of dollars in order to strengthen their military

capabilities. In addition to the historical rivalry and the situation in Cyprus, which is a direct

breach of the UN Charter, Turkey has raised several claims and disputes over the continental

self of the Aegean Archipelago, the territorial waters and air space, the Athens FIR, territorial

sovereignty of Greek Islands and the militarization of several islands of the Aegean, which

are supposed to be demilitarized according to the Lausanne treaty20. Nevertheless, despite

all these daunting obstacles there are several things that could bring the two countries

16 Thomas A. Bryson,”Tars, Turks, and Tankers: The Role of the United States Navy in the Middle East”, Scarecrow Press Inc., New Jersey and London, 1980, p.89-90. 17 US Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (1947) Admiral Forrest Sherman quoted in, Lloyd C Gardner, “Three Kings: The Rise of an American Empire in the Middle East after World War II.”, New York: The New Press, 2009. 18 Vladimir Isachenkov, Russian Navy to deploy Mediterranean fleet in bid to protect national security, Associated Press, June 6, 2013. 19 Andrew E. Kramer, "Russia Sending Warships on Maneuvers Near Syria", The New York Times, Retrieved 22 August 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/middleeast/russia-sends-warships-on-maneuvers-near-syria.html?_r=0. 20 For a better and more analytical understanding of Hellenic-Turkey relations see: A. Syrigos, 2012. In: Greece-Turkey Relations from Lausanne till today, notes from oral lecture.





closer. Such things could be the several common points in the cultural tradition of each

country, mainly created due to the four centuries these people coexisted within the

Ottoman Empire; and the increased economic benefits that could be derived from a more

cooperative interaction between the two countries. Some obvious economic benefits could

be the decrease in military spending and the cooperation in tourism, trade, energy

production and transit.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is one of the most prominent and ever-lasting conflicts in the

world’s modern history accounting for almost 10 major conflicts and an even greater

number of smaller events.

There is a widely spread misconception that the struggles and the conflicts between the

Jews and the Arabs started at 29 November 1947 following Future Government of Palestine,

General Assembly Resolution 181 (II), which called for termination of the British mandate of

Palestine as it was established by the League of Nation in 1918, followed by the partition and

the establishment of two independent states, a Jewish and an Arab.

Actually the conflict originates some decades before 1947, starting from the 19th century

when Jewish people immigrate to Palestine to join the already existing Jewish communities

in the region. Later, in 1918 following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire -as a result of the

1st World War and the rise of the Neo-Turks of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who created the first

Republic of Turkey in 192321- Palestine was placed under the mandate of Great Britain by

the League of Nations. Great Britain, and France as well, who historically has proved to be a

very ardent supporter of the Divide and Rule theory (see Afghanistan, Egypt, Cyprus, Indian

subcontinent, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Africa), gave both Jews and Palestinians

conflicting promises of independence (Balfour declaration of 1917) 22. This led to the

development of nationalistic ambitions and caused persistent rivalry between the two

people, which several times escalated to violent actions against each other.

Nowadays, the Arab-Israeli conflict is showing no signs of abating -despite the efforts of the

US Secretary of State John Kerry to conclude cohesive and constructive peace talks between

Israel and the Palestinian Authority23- while the Iranian nuclear crisis is destabilizing not only

the whole region, but is also causing confrontation between leading out of area players24.

21 Syrigos, A., 2012. In: Greece-Turkey Relations from Lausanne till today, notes from oral lecture. 22 Jack Straw, former Foreign Secretary of United Kingdom made some very bold and enlightening statements on the topic in 2002, affirming several major mistakes and misconducts on behalf of Great Britain during the colonial era. J. Kampfner, 2002. NS Interview - Jack Straw. New Statesman, from http://www.newstatesman.com/node/144241 . 2323 Mathew Lee, “Israel-Palestine Peace Talks To Start Monday Following Months Of John Kerry Diplomacy”, Huffington Post, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/28/israel-palestine-peace-talks-kerry_n_3667962.html. “Israelis and Palestinians resume peace talks at dinner hosted by John Kerry”, The Telegraph, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/10210235/Israelis-and-Palestinians-resume-peace-talks-at-dinner-hosted-by-John-Kerry.html . 24 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.1.

http://www.newstatesman.com/node/144241

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/28/israel-palestine-peace-talks-kerry_n_3667962.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/10210235/Israelis-and-Palestinians-resume-peace-talks-at-dinner-hosted-by-John-Kerry.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/10210235/Israelis-and-Palestinians-resume-peace-talks-at-dinner-hosted-by-John-Kerry.html



The Eastern Mediterranean has always been a region of countries with relatively mid to

small scale economies, with Greece, Egypt, Israel and Turkey being the biggest ones, with a,

average annual GDP approximately at $250 billion for the three first and $794 billion for

Turkey, while the rest of the countries average an annual GDP of approximately $40 billion

each25. Currently, most of the region is already in a deep monetary and economic crisis,

while there are fears, those other flourishing economies in the region, like Turkey26, might

be heading towards the same downward spiral.

Economy is a very crucial factor when it comes to defining the power and influence of every

sovereign actor in international politics. Since the region is stricken by recession, the balance

of power in the region is steadily shifting, in favor of actors that are still not affected by the

crisis. Additionally, countries, which have already been suffering from the crisis, are

becoming more and more prone to internal unrest and tensions, due to the severe and

unjust effects of austerity measures, which inflict disproportional weight onto the

population. Internal unrests and tensions can lead to unprecedented changes in the internal

politics of regional actors and lead to a further destabilization of the already fragile balance

of powers in the area of the Eastern Mediterranean. However, regional economic stagnation

can only be halted and dealt with by imaginative and adventurous projects that will be bring

several regional and non-regional actors together in order to work and cooperate with sole

purpose the mutual benefit and growth. The fields of tourism, trade and the exploitation

and transit of oil and gas are areas with vast potential for cooperation.

As we discussed above, financial problems within a country can lead to internal unrest with

severe future repercussions. Such was the case for several prominent countries of the Arab

world, when the economic disparities and injustices led the people to the streets. In

December 2010, a young Tunisian, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire after police

confiscated his unlicensed cart and wares. This desperate act of rebellion sparked a wave of

unrest across the Arab world27. In January 2011, Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali,

tried to appease demonstrators with pledges of reform, but was forced to flee Tunis for

Saudi Arabia after 23 years in power. After Tunisia, unrest and protests spread to Egypt28.

As protests spread to and across Egypt, demonstrators in Cairo took control of central Tahrir

Square. President Hosni Mubarak, who at first refused to quit, he finally agreed to step aside

on 12 February, after protesters marched on the Presidential Palace. The Egyptian revolution

25 C.I.A., “The World Factbook”, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html . 26 Thomas Jr. Landon, “Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey”, The New York Times, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/europe/financial-fears-as-street-unrest-shakes-turkey.html?pagewanted=all. Hugo Dixon, “Turkey’s economy is vulnerable”, Reuters, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://blogs.reuters.com/hugo-dixon/2013/06/17/turkeys-economy-is-vulnerable/ . Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, “Turkey protests reveal fault-lines in economic success”, BBC, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22778768 . 27 Jeremy Bowen, “Arab Uprisings: 10 Key Moements”, BBC, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20626645 . 28 Ibid.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/europe/financial-fears-as-street-unrest-shakes-turkey.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/europe/financial-fears-as-street-unrest-shakes-turkey.html?pagewanted=all

http://blogs.reuters.com/hugo-dixon/2013/06/17/turkeys-economy-is-vulnerable/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22778768

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20626645



went on to inspire uprisings in Yemen, Bahrain and Libya, and the following month, in

Syria29.

After several months of bloodshed between the Libyan Army and Opposition forces, on 17

March 2011, in New York, the UN Security Council passed resolution 1973. Its key passage

authorized member states "to take all necessary measures" to protect civilians in Libya. The

resolution was given the broadest possible interpretation by NATO members, especially

France, Britain and the US, who imposed a non-fly zone over Libya and proceeded with the

destruction of several military facilities in the country. Within days, Colonel Muammar

Gaddafi's forces near Benghazi were under attack and Tripoli itself was being bombed. Col

Gaddafi had sworn he would hunt down rebel "rats" from house to house, alleyway to

alleyway. However, resolution 1973 turned into a death warrant for himself and his

regime30.

A few days after the vote of UNSC Res.1973, protests took place in Syria and President

Bashar Al-Assad, on 30 Match 2011, vowed to disperse the “terrorists”, which were part of a

foreign conspiracy against his legitimate government. For over two years, Syria is ravaged by

a never-ending civil war, which has cost the lives of over 100.000 people and forced millions

to take refuge in neighboring countries31. The United Nations Security Council has been in a

stalemate, since Russia and China have vetoed against resolutions which intended to assist

the opposition forces in Syria.

The situation in Syria, except from a costly internal conflict is threatening to become a

regional destabilizing event, since Iran is supporting the regime of Bashar Al-Assad and in the

meantime continues to provide sophisticated weapon systems to Hezbollah through Syrian

territory. Hezbollah is considered as a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States of

America and the EU. Israel is extremely disturbed over the continuous supply of

sophisticated game changing weapon systems to Hezbollah and has reportedly executed two

airstrikes inside Syrian territory targeting weapons being delivered to Hezbollah32. Recent

events, on August 22nd 2013, indicate that Israeli operations against the supply lines of

Hezbollah in Syria might have not been as effective as they were believed, because missiles,

controlled by Hezbollah were fired from Lebanon against Israel. Luckily for the civilian

population of Israel the Iron Dome –Israel’s Anti-Missile Defensive Weapon System─ shot

down the inbound missiles33. Israeli civilians are accustomed to the terror from the skies,

29 Ibid. 30 Ibid. 31 Ed Payne, Greg Botelho and Mohammed Tawfeeq, “Opposition presses for weapons as Syria death toll tops 100,000”, CNN, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/26/world/meast/syria-violence/?iref=obinsite . 32 Dominic Evans and Oliver Holmes, “Israel strikes Syria, says targeting Hezbollah arms”, Reuters, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-blasts-idUSBRE94400020130505 . Avi Issacharoff, “Israel scratching its head after US officials (again) leak Syria strike”, The Times of Israel, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-scratches-its-head-after-us-officials-leak-syria-strike/ . 33 Isabel Kershner, “Rockets Are Fired Toward Israel From Southern Lebanon”, The New York Times, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/world/middleeast/rockets-fired-from-lebanon-toward-israel.html?_r=0 .

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/26/world/meast/syria-violence/?iref=obinsite

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-blasts-idUSBRE94400020130505

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-blasts-idUSBRE94400020130505

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-scratches-its-head-after-us-officials-leak-syria-strike/

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-scratches-its-head-after-us-officials-leak-syria-strike/

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/world/middleeast/rockets-fired-from-lebanon-toward-israel.html?_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/world/middleeast/rockets-fired-from-lebanon-toward-israel.html?_r=0



since they have been subjects of frequent rocket attacks from Gaza Strip and Lebanon for

the last years.

While the civil war rages in Syria, the international community is unable to agree on how to

achieve a cessation of violence with USA and Russian being at odds over the matter. The

United States are said to be preparing missile strikes in Syria, after videos were released into

the Internet, showing victims of chemical weapon attacks. Russia and China urged the US to

refrain from interfering in the Syrian civil war, while Iran has threatened the US that any

strikes against Syria will lead to asymmetric retaliatory responses towards its allies in the

region.

Meanwhile, after one year of military transitional governance in Egypt, Mohammed Morsi

became the first freely elected President on 24 June 2012. After one year in office, Morsi did

not cope well with the huge political and economic challenges, which he inherited as the

new leader of Egypt and several protests took place again in the famous Tahrir Square and

President Morsi was overthrown by the Egyptian Army after an ultimatum34. Following this

atypical military coup in Egypt the Egyptian Army took over installing an interim government

and started to rage a relentless crackdown on prominent members of the Muslim

Brotherhood and on the protesters that have been on the streets, after the atypical military

coup of July 3rd 2013, with over 400 people being reportedly killed35.

It is very easy to realize that groundbreaking events have been taking place in the region the

last years, from the discovery of significant gas and oil reserves in the Eastern

Mediterranean basin and the economic crisis to the Arab Uprisings. Major stakeholders are

competing for a redistribution of power and influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The

United States, and in its wake Israel, has been the regional key player since the end of the

2nd World War. The EU as such is not acting as a major stakeholder, but some of its members

such as the United Kingdom and France have been involved in the area for decades, if not

centuries.36 Moreover, EU members Greece and Cyprus are part of the region. Russian

Federation, on the other hand, is attempting a comeback, having abandoned the

Mediterranean two decades ago after the implosion of the Soviet Union. Turkey is also

staging a return as an independent player after nearly a century since the fall of the

Ottoman Empire.37

Conversely to a comparatively comprehensive approach by other stakeholders, the EU lacks

a grand strategy and it does not have an overarching strategy or an efficient political project

34 “Possible Military Coup in Egypt”, STRATFOR, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/possible-military-coup-egypt?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130703&utm_term=RedAlert&utm_content=readmore&elq=69e54b26bf4e4018b9116ba27f7c57d2 . 35 Tom Perry and Alexander Dziadosz, “Around 250 bodies held at Cairo mosque after violence”, Reuters, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-egypt-protests-bodies-idUSBRE97E0CY20130815 . 36 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.1. 37 Ibid.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/possible-military-coup-egypt?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130703&utm_term=RedAlert&utm_content=readmore&elq=69e54b26bf4e4018b9116ba27f7c57d2



http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-egypt-protests-bodies-idUSBRE97E0CY20130815

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-egypt-protests-bodies-idUSBRE97E0CY20130815



for the region. The Barcelona Process and the Union for the Mediterranean failed to achieve

their goals and the Euro-Mediterranean multilateralism never got off the ground.38

The European Union is still the world’s largest economy and it would be unwise to

underestimate its influence in the region. However, especially due to the economic crisis,

the EU seems to be in retreat in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the wake of the Arab

“Spring”, probably the most earthshaking chain of events of the 21st century, the EU is

standing by dazzled, frightened and introvert. Obviously, the “EU’s unipolar moment of the

1990’s has come to an end”39, however this does not mean that the EU should be in the

retreat. United through its diversity, the European Union could effectively field an open-

minded, alluring and realistic diplomacy in order to bid a strong candidacy for the position of

the key regional stakeholder.

Eastern Mediterranean, especially after the recently discovered hydrocarbon resource

reserves, could be an important supplementing energy provider for the ever-increasing

energy need of the EU. A strategic investment in the area, which would include the

facilitation of the dispute management and the acceleration of the necessary process of

resource exploitation and transit, could lessen the overdependence of Europe from Russian

gas and oil.

European analysts should cease to approach a potential exit of Greece from the EU solely

under the scope of the financial and economic ramifications, but they should also take into

consideration the geopolitical consequences of a Grexit40. Greece lies on the geostrategic

crossroads between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and between Europe and Middle

East, a region of considerable instability. Greece’s location is likely to establish it as a

significant transit route for gas and oil from Russia, the Caspian and the newly discovered

energy sources in the Eastern Mediterranean41.

Moreover, Greece has been instrumental for the EU and NATO in numerous foreign policy

areas and in key issues such as energy security and immigration. Also, Greece always

enjoyed good relations with the Arab world and the Levant.42 However, the economic crisis

has dealt a serious blow to Greece’s standing in the region.

Before concluding on the thematic of “The Eastern Mediterranean Today” and proceed to

examine the contribution of the region in Energy Security, it feels unwise not to mention a

38Kristina Kausch, “Can the Crisis Unlock Euro-Mediterranean Relations?”, FRIDE Policy Brief no. 139, 2012, from http://www.fride.org/publication/1079/can-the-crisis-unlock-euro-mediterranean-relations . 39 Javier Solana, “A Europe for the World.”, Project Syndicate, 2012 from http://www.project-

syndicate.org/commentary/europe-s-global-leadership-by-javier-solana. 40 Walter Russel, “The Geopolitics of Greece’s Exit from the Euro.”, The American Interest, 2012 from

http://blogs.theamerican-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/17/the-geopolitics-of-greeces-exit-from-the-euro/ . 41 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.2. 42 Theodore Couloumbis, Thanos Dokos, Dimitris Katsikas, and Dimitris Sotiopoulos , “On the Brink. Greece and the European Financial Crisis.” In Europe in Trouble. Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Financial Crisis, Mediterranean Series 2012, The German Marshall Fund of the United States - Instituto Affari Internazionali, 2012, p.27–38.

http://blogs.theamerican-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/17/the-geopolitics-of-greeces-exit-from-the-euro/




few concerns over potential friction or additional tensions between some of the most

prominent local stakeholders. I strongly believe that expressing these thoughts at this point

will be very beneficial in our efforts to examine some of the decisions and actions that are

being taken by the regional actors.

The Hellenic-Turkish rivalry has been an ever-present friction point for almost 200 years,

while things only got worse after the Turkish invasion in Cyprus on 1974.

Greece traditionally has enjoyed close relations with the Arab world; however since 2010

the Greek Prime minister George A. Papandreou opted to pursue closer bilateral relations

with Israel. Nowadays Greece, Cyprus and Israel are actively forming up a close partnership

in several sectors, which include energy resources exploitation and export, trade, education,

intelligence, security and defense. During the last years Greece and Israel have taken part in

joint military exercises. In the military exercise called “Noble Dina”, which took place from

26th March to the 5th of April 2012, navies and air forces from Greece, Israel and the United

States of America participated. The exercise took place after Greece. Israel and Cyprus

signed an energy agreement, while earlier during 2011 Greece and Israel signed a defense

agreement, upgrading their defense and military collaboration43.

This realignment between Greece, Cyprus and Israel didn’t come out of the blue. Earlier in

2010, after the incident with the Gaza Freedom Flotilla and the boarding of the Mavi

Marmara, Turkey downgraded its relations with Israel. But just as nature abhors a vacuum,

so does geopolitics. Israel, Greece and Cyprus have drawn closer in an unprecedented

political, military and energy relationship.

After three years, with President Barak Obama himself acting as a broker, PM Benjamin

Netanyahu telephoned his Turkish counterpart PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan and apologized for

the Mavi Marmara incident44. However, after only four months the Turkish Prime Minister

stoked again the rivalry between the two states blaming Israel for the atypical military coup

and instability in Egypt45.

Turkey for the last decade is actively pursuing to reorient itself as regional independent

power, seeking to become the leader of the shifting Arab world. This pursuit is shattering the

existing geopolitical balances and is already alienating several officials in the other side of

the Atlantic. Turkey’s rapid emergence and its gradual detachment from the United States is

43 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT–Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.3. Seth Cropsey, “Will U.S. Choose the Right Side in the Eastern Mediterranean?”, Hudson Institute, 2013, Retrieved 20/07/2013 from http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659 . 44 Jodi Rudoren and Mark Landler, “With Obama as Broker, Israelis and Turkey End Dispute”, The New York Times, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/world/middleeast/president-obama-israel.html?pagewanted=all . 45 Associated Press, “Turkey’s Erdogan says Israel behind Egyptian leader’s ouster; Egyptian Cabinet slams claim”, Washington Post, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-erdogan-says-israel-behind-egyptian-leaders-ouster-says-has-evidence-to-prove-it/2013/08/20/9da8d9b8-0984-11e3-89fe-abb4a5067014_story.html .

http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/world/middleeast/president-obama-israel.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/world/middleeast/president-obama-israel.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-erdogan-says-israel-behind-egyptian-leaders-ouster-says-has-evidence-to-prove-it/2013/08/20/9da8d9b8-0984-11e3-89fe-abb4a5067014_story.html





threatening its neighbors but it may also threaten the very future and success of its project.

Its “zero problems with neighbors” policy has turned into a zero friends policy and has lost

its leverage everywhere, as it is cleverly argued by Piotr Zalewski46.

In an international system reigned by anarchy, international actors should be cautious and

study previous examples during the course of history, which depict how rapidly emerging

powers have forced others against them and doomed their future, if they wish to avoid the

same fate.

Evidently, as politics and alliances in the eastern Mediterranean shift, the region's security

framework is splintering. In the following pages we will discuss the contribution of the

Eastern Mediterranean in Energy Security.

46 Piotr Zalewski, “How Turkey Went From 'Zero Problems' to Zero Friends”, Foreign Policy, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/21/how_turkey_foreign_policy_went_from_zero_problems_to_zero_friends?page=0,1 .

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/21/how_turkey_foreign_policy_went_from_zero_problems_to_zero_friends?page=0,1

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/21/how_turkey_foreign_policy_went_from_zero_problems_to_zero_friends?page=0,1



The contribution of the East Mediterranean in

Energy security

In the subsequent part of this paper, we will examine how the Eastern Mediterranean

contributes in Energy Security. However, it would be advisable before proceeding with

examining the profiles of the regional countries, which are producing or potentially can

produce energy resources; the ways via which energy can be transited through the region;

the contribution of the region to EU’s energy security; and several concerns, we should

analyze the involvement in the regional energy pivot from the three major global actors –the

United States, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China-. Later on, I would

like offer a more expanded interpretation of the term “energy resources” and elaborate on

the implications of this expanded interpretation.

The United States foreign policy has experienced a major reorientation during President’s

Obama first term in office. The President himself, along with the then Secretary of State H.

Clinton turned their focus the Asia-Pacific region, with visits and meetings with leaders from

several countries in the region starting to slowly and steadily building closer relations with

the countries of the region, in an apparent attempt to contain the rising China.

Much is being made of the so-called American strategic Asia-Pacific pivot, recognizing that

the dominant issues of the 21st century will be decided in the Asia-Pacific. As a result some

analysts see this as an American disengagement from the Mediterranean. Indeed, according

to former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, the pivot strategy will rebalance American

naval assets between the Pacific and the Atlantic from today’s roughly 50/50 split to 60/40

by 202047. However, the strategic guidance issued by the Obama administration in January

2012, identifies “the primary loci of these threats are South Asia and the Middle East”. It

continues to state “to support these objectives [in the Middle East], the United States will

continue to place a premium on U.S. and allied military presence in – and support of –

partner nations in and around this region”48. Moreover, access to Central Asia remains

important in American policy toward China. Therefore, it seems improbable that American

interest in the region will be winding down in the near or medium future49, especially if we

take under consideration the heavy involvement of the US in region and the existence of

significant interests for several major US allies.

The United States has welcomed the discovery of gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean

over the past decade as these resources hold the potential to bolster the energy security of

Israel, Cyprus, and Europe as a whole and reduce, to some degree, the European Union’s

dependence on Russian gas exports. Moreover, the United States of America is deeply

47 Jane Perlez, “Panetta Outlines New Weaponry for Pacific.”, New York Times - Asia-Pacific, June 1, 2012. 48 “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense.”, U.S. Department of

Defense, January 2012, p.1- 2 49 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT–Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.3-4.



involved in the exploitation of gas and oil in the Eastern Mediterranean, as the leading

offshore drilling contractor in the region is the Noble Corporation, an American company

with substantial Israeli interests. The prospect of new energy sources is particularly

encouraging at a time when the EU is struggling with the sovereign debt crisis to which

Greece and Cyprus are particularly exposed. At the same time, the United States would like

the door to remain open to Turkey’s future involvement when political circumstances

permit. Meanwhile the United States seeks to avoid the escalation of tensions in the region.

A number of U.S. strategic and commercial interests are at stake in the development of

these newly discovered resources50.

U.S. strategy in the region was for years based on common interests among America, Israel

and Turkey. Islamist Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 2002 ascension as Turkish prime minister has

put strains into the strategy. Erdogan's policy has deliberately ended good relations between

Ankara and Jerusalem. This was not an isolated incident. It was the result of a profound

change in the Turkish government's direction under an Islamist ruler who as of this writing

has blamed "foreigners" for the growing protests that demonstrate Turkish citizens'

dissatisfaction with an increasingly repressive regime. It was the strategy of a politician who

has emerged from what was once a secular state to use the Gaza incident as part of a broad

Islamist enterprise to reorient Turkey toward the East and return the nation to the vision of

its past Ottoman imperial rulers51.

The region's drift toward fundamentalism creates an incentive for America to move closer to

Israel, Cyprus and Greece. The U.S. has been interested in a stable Mediterranean since the

early 19th century wars against the Barbary pirates who, as Ottoman puppets, preyed on

American and European shipping. Turkey's growing political aspirations and economic clout

are recapitulating its old dreams of regional influence that directly oppose NATO's interest in

a calm south and southeastern flank. The U.S. and Turkey have become rival powers in the

Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. However, President Obama does not recognize this:

His visit to Turkey took place less than four months after his first inauguration in 2009, and

underlines the esteem in which he holds Erdogan. This esteem is misplaced. Turkey's return

to an imperial and fundamentalist policy supported tacitly by the U.S. is changing the

region's strategic balance, as it creates dilemmas that will outlive the current U.S.

administration52.

Since 1769, Russia has remained an active player in the Eastern Mediterranean except for

short intervals due to external causes. After the American intervention in Lebanon in 1958,

the Soviet Union deployed a forward Mediterranean Squadron of the Black Sea Fleet and

obtained some naval facilities in Arab countries. Although it never was able to challenge the

US 6th Fleet, during the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War, this presence signaled a

strong Soviet commitment to their Arab allies. When the Soviet Navy had to abandon its

bases in Egypt in 1977, the Syrian port of Tartus became the main Soviet support base in the

50 Jeffrey Mankoff, “Resource Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The View from Washington”, The German Marshall Fund of The United States, Washington,2012, p.1. 51 Seth Cropsey, “Will U.S. Choose the Right Side in the Eastern Mediterranean?”, Hudson Institute, 2013, Retrieved 20/07/2013 from http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659 . 52 Ibid.

http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659



Mediterranean. In 1991, the Mediterranean Squadron ceased to exist, but since 2007, the

Russian Fleet again regularly sends small task forces into the Mediterranean. Tartus is the

only remaining Russian naval facility outside the former Soviet Union. It only consists of one

floating dock in working order and some other support facilities, most of them in disrepair.

However, according to the Commander of the Russian Fleet Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov,

“the base is vital for us; it worked, and will continue to act”53.

Although Russia has been marginalized in the Mediterranean for the last two decades and its

military presence is still negligible today, it is staging a comeback. Russia’s main goal is to

recover its influence in a region that is rapidly gaining importance because of both its energy

reserves and key strategic position. Russia is systematically pursuing a policy of economic

and geostrategic penetration, in particular in Greece and Cyprus, and of containing Turkey’s

ascent. It is also making overtures to Egypt and Iraq, and continues supporting Syria and

Iran. Finally, relations with Israel are improving, culminating in a deal with Gazprom in July

2012 on gas extraction54. In short, in the long run and in the broader region of the Middle

East, Russia seems intent on changing the regional order, diminishing US predominance,

limiting an increase of Turkey’s and the EU’s influence, and reclaiming its former status in a

renewed geopolitical context55.

The Greek-Cypriot financial crisis and the growing energy interests in the Eastern

Mediterranean are providing Russia with new opportunities to restore its influence.

Therefore, the EU should be aware that approaching the Greek and Cypriot sovereign debt

crisis exclusively in the light of financial criteria opens the door to Russia enhancing its

influence in both these members of the Union. In 2011, Russia granted Cyprus a loan of €2.5

billion. In 2012, Nicosia requested a second loan that could amount to €5 billion. This

financial support is not only aimed at securing the vast sums of money Russian oligarchs

have deposited in Cypriot banks56. It is also linked to demands for a key role in the

development of Cyprus’ prospective energy boom.

Indeed, Russia’s energy policy is aimed at blocking any alternative to its control over

Europe’s gas supplies. This not only implies attempting to monopolize the infrastructure that

delivers gas from the Caspian and Central Asia to Europe, but also obtaining a key role in the

exploitation of energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean.

53 Frank Gardner, “How vital is Syria's Tartus port to Russia?”, BBC, 2012, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18616191 . 54 For an extensive analysis of Russia’s policy in the region, see: Andreas Stergiou, “Russian Policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Implications for EU External Action.”, EU Institute of Security Studies, 2012. http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/russian-policy-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-and-the-implications-for-eu-external-action/. 55 For cumulative evidence supporting Russian intentions changing the geopolitical reality in the Middle East, see: Zvi Magen, “The Empire Strikes Back?”, INSS Insight No. 381, 2012, Retrieved 20/08/2013 from http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10449 56 Markus Dettmer and Christian Reiermann, “Bailing Out Oligarchs: EU Aid for Cyprus A Political Minefield for Merkel”, Der Spiegel, 2012, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-intelligence-report-warns-cyprus-not-combating-money-laundering-a-865451.html .

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18616191

http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10449

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-intelligence-report-warns-cyprus-not-combating-money-laundering-a-865451.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-intelligence-report-warns-cyprus-not-combating-money-laundering-a-865451.html



Gazprom, Neguzneft and the Sintez Group were interested in participating in the

privatization of the Greek gas supplier DEPA and the natural gas transmission network

operator DESFA57 -earlier in February 2013; Russia signed a deal with Israel to market its

liquefied natural gas, a deal which has placed Moscow in a firm position in the burgeoning

eastern Mediterranean energy sector58-. However, the Russian companies withdrew their

offers, stating they didn’t not receive enough assurances59, amidst reports that pressure

from Brussels led to the breakdown in the deal60. If the deal has been agreed, it would not

only have strengthened Russian influence in Greece, but it would also have given Russia a

say in Greece’s pipeline system that will transport gas from the Caspian and Central Asia to

the Adriatic for further distribution to Italy and beyond.

However, energy is not the only link between Russia and Greece. Western Europeans rarely

acknowledge that the Russian-Greek connection goes far deeper than energy politics alone.

Russia has traditionally been the custodian of Orthodox Christianity and has supported its

co-religionists in their struggle for independence from the Ottoman Empire. After all,

Russians consider Moscow the Third Rome since the fall of Constantinople, and Russia the

continuation of Byzantine religion and culture61.

Enhancing its influence in Greece and Cyprus also strengthens Russia’s position vis-à-vis

Turkey. It not only makes it more difficult for Turkey to coerce Cyprus, it also undermines

Turkey’s plans to take part in the exploitation of Cypriot energy assets. Moreover, it

strengthens Russia’s bargaining position towards Turkey in their bilateral energy dealings

threatening to undermine Turkey’s ambition as an energy hub. Finally, Cyprus lies across the

approaches to most of Turkey’s Mediterranean ports, which should not only concern Turkey,

but also the United States and even NATO as a whole62.

A final area of contention with Turkey is Russia’s reluctance to act against the repression by

Assad in Syria. Most analysts mention the arms trade and the naval base of Tartus as the

main reasons for Russia’s support for Assad. However, fear of popular revolt in Russia and

nostalgia for its former status as a superpower seem a more feasible explanation. Russia

risks losing all its influence in Syria if the Assad regime collapses. Yet if Syria falls apart,

57 “Gazprom May Buy Gas Company DEPA from Cash Hungry Greece.” Russia Today, 2012, Retrieved

23/08/2013 from http://rt.com/business/news/gazprom-depa-greece-crisis-127/ . 58 “Gazprom makes deal for Israeli LNG”and “Russia muscles in on East Med gas boom”, United Press International, 2013, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/02/27/Gazprom-makes-deal-for-Israeli-LNG/UPI-80191361966184/?rel=44571362763502 and http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/03/08/Russia-muscles-in-on-East-Med-gas-boom/UPI-44571362763502/ . 59 “Gazprom: We are not going to leave from the Greek market.”, Epikaira.gr, 2013. Retrieved 20/6/2013 from http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=60893&category_id=89 . 60 Aggeliki Dimopoulou, “Interview with Prof. C. Filis: Why Gazprom Backed off?”, tvxs.gr, 2013, Retrieved 12/06/2013 from http://tvxs.gr/news/ελλάδα/γιατί-έκανε-πίσω-η-gazprom . 61 Walter Russel, “The Geopolitics of Greece’s Exit from the Euro.”, The American Interest, 2012 from

http://blogs.theamerican-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/17/the-geopolitics-of-greeces-exit-from-the-euro/ . 62 Younkyoo Kim and Stephen Blank, “Russo-Turkish Divergence Part I: The Security Dimension”, 2012.

Retrieved 23/08/2013 from http://www.gloria-center.org/2012/04/russo-turkish-divergence-part-i-the-security-dimension/ .

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/02/27/Gazprom-makes-deal-for-Israeli-LNG/UPI-80191361966184/?rel=44571362763502



http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/03/08/Russia-muscles-in-on-East-Med-gas-boom/UPI-44571362763502/

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/03/08/Russia-muscles-in-on-East-Med-gas-boom/UPI-44571362763502/

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=60893&category_id=89

http://tvxs.gr/news/ελλάδα/γιατί-έκανε-πίσω-η-gazprom



http://www.gloria-center.org/2012/04/russo-turkish-divergence-part-i-the-security-dimension/

http://www.gloria-center.org/2012/04/russo-turkish-divergence-part-i-the-security-dimension/



Russia can hope to retain its influence in the Allawite entity strategically situated along the

Mediterranean coastline.

While the United States of America have been executing their pivot in Asia-Pacific region,

China taking advantage of the turmoil in the region has been steadily asserting its influence

in the Eastern Mediterranean. China has been focused on ameliorating its diplomatic ties

with countries geo-strategically located around the Four Seas –the Caspian Sea, Black Sea,

Mediterranean Sea, and Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf- exploiting their problematic relations

with the West. As Christina Y. Lin notes “Paradoxically, the U.S. eastward pivot is matched by

the resurgent Middle Kingdom’s westward pivot across its new Silk Road, and threatens to

outflank the citadel of American geo-strategies in the region.”63

One of the major reasons behind China’s latest interest in aligning itself with local actors in

the Eastern Mediterranean is energy security64. In 1993 China became a net importer of

energy resources and since then has adopted an extrovert policy in its efforts to procure the

energy resources, which are essential to the sustenance of its growing economy. It is worth

noting that China’s internal political stability is deeply entwined with its continuous

economic growth.65

Additionally, China feels obliged to secure diverse energy supply lines, as it is worried by the

US supremacy in sea, which could choke China and cut it off from it energy supply lines and

Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCS).66 Except from the United States, who are seen by

China as their main international adversary, India is developing significant naval capabilities,

which in turn could also be dangerous.

China aims to develop alternative energy supply lines through central Asia, constructing a

modern grid of overland pipelines, roads and railways, in order to circumvent naval

chokepoints and minimize the effects of naval blockades and embargoes.67 This new Chinese

strategy is called by many analysts “The New Silk Road Strategy”.

China is deploying a combination of political, economic and military tools to further its

strategy.68 The economic tools include constructing infrastructure projects throughout the

central Asia and strengthening its trade relations with countries in the region –China is now

the biggest trade partner of the EU. Moreover, China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company, a

government-owned company by the P.R.China has heavily invested in the Greek Port of

63 Christina Y. Lin, “China’s strategic shift toward the region of the four seas: the Middle Kingdom arrives in the Middle East”, Gloria Center, 2013 http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/ . 64 For a background overview of China’s energy interests in the region, see Christina Y. Lin, “The New Silk Road: China’s Energy Strategy in the Greater Middle East,” Policy Focus #109, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011. 65 Harry Papasotiriou, “China from the Heavenly Empire to the Rising Superpower of the 21st century”, Athens, Poiotita Publications, 2013, p.348-358. 66 Harry Papasotiriou, “China from the Heavenly Empire to the Rising Superpower of the 21st century”, Athens, Poiotita Publications, 2013, p.364. 67 Ibid. 68 Christina Y. Lin, “China’s strategic shift toward the region of the four seas: the Middle Kingdom arrives in the Middle East”, Gloria Center, 2013 http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/.

http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/






Piraeus -the biggest port in Greece-, which nowadays functions as the major facility for

Chinese exports to the EU. Around the Mediterranean Chinese companies have acquired

stakes in shipping and logistics companies, as well as sea ports, airports and fiber optic

networks, in countries such as Spain, France, Portugal, Italy, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt.

Chinese companies showed interest in acquiring exploration and exploitation licenses for the

newly discovered Cypriot gas fields69.

Furthermore, China is using its position as a permanent member of the UNSC in order to

exert political influence to the countries in the region of Eastern Mediterranean. One of the

most typical examples can be found in China’s stance towards the Syrian civil war and Iran’s

nuclear program.

China’s rise has been materialized in an extensive overhaul of its military capabilities, which

huge investments in air and sea. China is slowly, but steadily starting to assert its military

presence further and further away from its turbulent neighborhood, changing its naval

strategy from “coastal defense to far sea defense”70.

Indeed, Chinese naval vessels have embarked on active diplomacy in the far seas. Chinese

Navy has conducted regular port calls and “shows of flags” in the Gulf of Aden–where it

conducts anti-piracy missions–as well as in the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea–where

China has acquired various seaports in the littorals by helping to bail out the Eurozone. In

July and August of 2012, Chinese warships passed through the Suez Canal and entered the

Mediterranean Sea at the same time Russia dispatched its naval flotilla to Tartus in Syria.

Jonathan Holslag, in an August 2012 article in Global Times, asserted that the Mediterranean

needed to become accustomed to China’s naval presence71. By showing its flag west of the

Suez, China is signaling its interest as a trading nation in accessing sea-lanes, such as the

Strait of Hormuz, the Bosporus, and Gibraltar72.

So far, we have analyzed the motives and strategies of the three main international actors in

our contemporary international system, in the next paragraph I will try to deliver the

expanded interpretation of energy resources and security, I promised at the start of this part

of the paper.

Energy resources are the commodities, which through their consumption the most basic and

vital activities of our society are possible. These activities are transportation and

production. Every simple activity of a modern human being can be identified to originate

from several combinations of these two activities, from being able to work, eat, go on

vacations to wage wars or preserve peace. In this simple fact lies the great value and

importance of energy, because it is impossible for our modern world to function for a single

69 Xinhua, “Cyprus says China's state energy company interested in gas prospecting”, 2012, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7747996.html . 70 Edward Wong, “Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power”, New York Times, 2010 Retrieved 20/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24navy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 . 71 Jonathan Holslag, “Naval Visits Accustom Mediterranean to New Role”, Global Times, 2012, Retrieved 20/08/2013 from http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/724645.shtml . 72 Ibid.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7747996.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24navy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/724645.shtml



minute, if an instance we had no oil or gas or coal. Cars, trucks, planes and ships would be all

immobilized. Armies would be unable to operate. Everything would be out of order.

Obviously, someone could argue that without oil, gas and the other modern energy

resources, we could return to pre-industrialization way of life. Of course, we could be able to

use horses, mules and oxen to help us in production and transportation and we could live in

our new society with our new way of life. By accepting this possible, although far-fetched

event where the whole world lives back in a 15th century society, it is clear that all this time,

we have been omitting maybe one of the most important and ever-present energy resource,

food. Since the Ancient times food has been the basic form of energy resource. Cavalry was

replaced by armored vehicles; galleys were replaced by ironclads and later on battleships

and destroyers; horses, mules and oxen where used in production and transportation are

now replaced by trucks and tractors. Probably in the future soldiers, who “run on” food, will

be replaced by robots –that’s something that is already being slowly done if you take in

consideration how drones are starting to replace manned aircraft.

The implication of the addition of food in the gambit of energy security might not be that

severe for western countries, but it could be a game-changer for the African continent.

Despite, the efforts of several countries and UN Agencies to combat poverty and famine,

millions of people still die. As we venture into the 21st century, the fear of having to make

war in order to survive (wars for food and water) is really high, especially for the countries of

the African continent. Policy makers and world leaders need to seriously consider this very

sad and dangerous possibility and make sure it never becomes a reality, because a normal

soldier has his limitations, a desperate hungry soldier, who fights in order to help his family

survive, has none.

So far, we have analyzed the strategies of the United States, Russian and China; and we saw

how food merits inclusion in the energy security gambit, especially for Africa. In the next

parts of this paper we will examine the energy production capabilities of the countries in the

region, the potential transit routes and methods of energy resources in the region, the

contribution of the Eastern Mediterranean in EU’s energy security and the existing

geopolitical, economic and environmental limitations and concerns.



The role of the area as a producer of energy resources

In this part of the research paper, we will analyze the energy identity of the wider area of

the Eastern Mediterranean as well as the energy profile of the coastal countries of the

region –based on the recent discoveries of natural gas reserves. Our aim will be to present

data that will help us understand the realities of the region in regards with the proved and

estimated quantities of natural gas, to the extent that it is possible by the available relevant

data. Defining the amount of resources available for exploitation in the region is

fundamental, if we are to examine if and how those resources can be exported and funneled

in the global energy market.

Nowadays, according to the latest discoveries, the Eastern Mediterranean can be split in

four basic areas of highly possible or proved existence of hydrocarbon resources.73 These

four areas are identified as the following: the Herodotus Basin, mainly south east of Crete,

south west of Cyprus and north of Egypt; the Levantine, which includes the maritime areas

between Cyprus, Israel, Turkey, Syria and Lebanon; the Nile Cone and the maritime area

south of Crete74.

75

Until now, the surveys that have taken place in the region of Eastern Mediterranean have

managed to prove the existence of approx. 105,9tcf (trillion cubic feet) of exploitable natural

gas. While, the existence of another 380,9tcf in the regions of the Nile Cone, the Levantine

and around Cyprus; is considered highly probable76.

73 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.18. 74 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.4. 75 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011. 76 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.27



77

In the Greek part of the Herodotus Basin and the area south of Crete, although unproven –

especially due to the lack of justified or official surveys- it is highly probable that there are

significant hydrocarbon reserves, based on the geology of the region. The movements of the

tectonic plates of Africa and Europe, which cause methane emissions; and the several mud

volcanoes of the region increase the likeliness of significant hydrocarbon reserves to exist in

the region.78 Similar geological characteristics are common to the majority of the areas

around the world, which are rich in hydrocarbon reserves, such as the Caspian Sea and the

Gulf of Mexico to name a few79.

After examining the four basic areas, in which the existence of hydrocarbon reserves is

proven or highly plausible, it is essential to examine the coastal countries of the region in

order to further our cause in better understanding the role of the area as a producer of

energy resources. We will begin our country to country examination with Cyprus, which is

the very first country in the region to be surveyed for potential hydrocarbon reserves.

Cyprus

Cyprus has been the very first country to be subject of surveys for hydrocarbon reserves

around its waters during the late 1930’s until early 2000’s. However, those surveys had

limited results mostly due to technical limitations. Consequently, Cyprus has always been a

country and economy based on oil and electricity, while its gas reserves and consumption

were very limited to none80.

Since 2010 and the latest developments, which charter an area south of the island (from the

Levantine to the Herodotus Basin) of increased importance for the Republic of Cyprus, it is

77 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011. 78 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.20. 79 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.21. 80 Ibid.



believed that Cyprus‘s substantial offshore acreage in the Levant Basin, estimated by the

U.S. Geological Survey to contain mean recoverable resources of 1.7 billion barrels of oil and

122tcf of natural gas81.

82

This area has been split into thirteen fields, in which the Republic of Cyprus is expected to

conduct several surveys in cooperation with foreign oil and gas companies in the future. So

far field twelve, which is dubbed Aphrodite field, has been the most advanced field in

respect to the intensity of the surveys. Aphrodite field is located between the Exclusive

Economic Zones of Cyprus and Israel, and it is believed to contain about 5-8 tcf of natural gas

and be worth around 30 to 100bn US dollars.83 Officials from the Energy Agency of the

Republic of Cyprus have made more optimistic estimations of the size and value of the

reserves in the Aphrodite field. At this early stage, it is natural that slightly higher or lower

estimations are made, regarding the size and value of the fields. At this point, we should

only try to get an idea of the estimated range of the reserves84.

Noble Energy, a US company with Israeli interests, in cooperation with Delek Group, an

Israeli company, is in charge of the exploration process of the Aphrodite field. Aphrodite is

located adjacently to the giant Leviathan reserve, which is located inside the Israeli EEZ.

Aphrodite in its larger part in located inside the Cypriot EEZ, fact that would give Cyprus a

larger share from the joint exploitation of the reserve. At the moment, Aphrodite reserve is

capable of producing 10bcn per year for the next 20-30 years. Only 15% of the estimated

quantity of the 10bcn is capable of satisfying the energy needs of a small country like Cyprus

and most likely the rest will be exported85.

81 US Energy Information Administartion, “Cyprus energy country analysis”, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://205.254.135.7/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=CY&trk=m . 82 Source: http://www.cyprusnewsreport.com/?q=node/4626 83 International Crisis Group, ”Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue?”, International Crisis Group – Europe Report, 2012, p.12. 84 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.22. 85 International Crisis Group, ”Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue?”, International Crisis Group – Europe Report, 2012, p.12.

http://205.254.135.7/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=CY&trk=m

http://www.cyprusnewsreport.com/?q=node/4626



The Cypriot Government seems determined to establish Cyprus as significant energy

producer and a major energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such an aspiration demands

more than exploiting the Aphrodite field. To this end Cyprus is staging a second phase of

surveys in the near future in all the other 12 fields that are located inside its EEZ. Cyprus is

taking all political and diplomatic steps necessary, as well as making several structural

changes in its national legal system in order to enable more fast and efficient exploration

and exploitation processes by adhering to the legal framework established by the EU86.

Indeed, the Republic of Cyprus hosted a biding round for exploration rights and licenses in

the other twelve fields south of the island, which ended on May 2012 and reportedly it

garnered interest from several major foreign companies87.

Additionally, we have to state once more that Greece, Cyprus and Israel have signed a

cooperation agreement, pledging themselves to work closely together in the energy sector.

Obviously, Cyprus is rapidly enhancing its status to a significant actor in the regional energy

security, due to its consistent effects to improve its ability to produce and export natural gas

and take advantage of its natural wealth, which resides inside its sovereign maritime zones.

Israel

Israel, conversely to Cyprus, already possessed national reserves of natural gas before the

discovery of offshore reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. These natural gas reserves are

majorly located in Mari and Noa gas fields, which are exploited by Yam Thetis company.

These reserves are mainly used to supply the Israeli power plants. However, the reserves are

insufficient to cover the total domestic needs of the Israeli economy, thus leading Israel to

import natural gas from abroad, mainly from Egypt via the Arish-Askhelon pipeline88.

Taking into consideration the latest turmoil in Egypt and the other Arab countries, the newly

found reserves in Eastern Mediterranean are something more than a simple economic gain

for the Jewish State. It is a ticket to the much sought energy self-sufficiency for a country

surrounded by hostile neighbors89.

These newly found reserves are located in the Levantine Basin, with the Leviathan and the

Tamar gas fields being the most prominent ones, being reportedly able to provide 17tcf and

8,4tcf of natural gas respectively. Both gas fields are operated by Noble Energy90. Dalit gas

field is also considered to be worth mentioning being able to provide around 15btf of natural

86 Michael Kyprianou & Co LLC, “HYDROCARBONS IN CYPRUS; Drilling for natural gas reserves”, p.1. http://www.kyprianou.com.cy/assets/mainmenu/216/docs/HydrocarbonsinCyprus.pdf . 87 “Cyprus’ second offshore bidding round: Expectations exceeded”, http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-second-offshore-bidding-round 88 CIA, The World Fact Book, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/is.html . 89 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.26. 90 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.5.

http://www.kyprianou.com.cy/assets/mainmenu/216/docs/HydrocarbonsinCyprus.pdf

http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-second-offshore-bidding-round

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/is.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/is.html



gas.91 The Tamar gas field is operational, since March 30 201392, and is dubbed to be able to

cover Israel’s domestic consumption, while the Leviathan gas reserve is expected to be

exported.

93

Evidently, Israel is so far one of the most benefited countries from these late discoveries of

energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, since it has managed to become self-

sufficient; cease being dependent on hostile neighbors and has gained the friendship of two

other significant players in the region – Greece and Cyprus – following its fallout with its

longstanding local ally, Turkey.

Palestinian Authority – Gaza Strip

The Palestinian Authority is likely to be involved in the gambit of energy security in the

Eastern Mediterranean, if at some point it manages to become a recognized sovereign state

and acquires maritime zones of control outside the Gaza Strip94.

Since 1999, the Palestinian Authority agreed with natural gas company BG Group the

exploitation rights for the Marine-1 gas field, which contains 1,4tcf of natural gas, in its

territorial waters in the Gaza Strip. Israel did not object the agreement and even considered

to import natural gas from the reserve; however, it failed to reach an agreement with the

company95.

91 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.8. 92 Sharon Udasin, “Natural gas from Tamar field starts flowing”, The Jerusalem Post, 2013, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Report-Gas-from-Tamar-field-to-come-online-Sunday-308186 . 93 Source: http://oxfordswfproject.com/2011/01/25/imf-to-israel-start-planning-new-swf/ . 94 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.27. 95 Ibid.

http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Report-Gas-from-Tamar-field-to-come-online-Sunday-308186

http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Report-Gas-from-Tamar-field-to-come-online-Sunday-308186

http://oxfordswfproject.com/2011/01/25/imf-to-israel-start-planning-new-swf/



Recent surveys have discovered the Mari-B gas field, which is located between the Israeli

EEZ and the potential Palestinian EEZ. The Mari-B gas field is estimated to contain around

1tcf of natural gas96.

If anything, the recent Arab Uprisings have created a new trend in the Arab populations,

which means that sooner or later, one way or the other the question of Palestine will have

to be answered and with it Palestine will acquire access and rights to the exploitation of its

natural wealth. In what way, this will take place; it is to be decided in the future.

Egypt

Egypt is the only country in the Eastern Mediterranean, which possesses significant proven

and fully recoverable reserves of natural gas, a cohesive industrial sector for the exploitation,

production and export of natural gas to other countries97.

Egypt’s goal to be established as a significant producer of energy resources has been

successful due to its consistent efforts from 1998 till today. In a decade, Egypt’s natural gas

production has quadrupled and today its reserves are estimated to be about 77tcf of natural

gas. Such gigantic reserves place Egypt among the top three countries in natural gas reserves

in Africa alongside Nigeria and Algeria98.

During the last years Egypt is producing an average of 2,2tfc of natural gas on an annual

basis, and uses a significant proportion to cover approximately its domestic demands.

According to 2009 data, Egypt exported a total of 650bcf of natural gas. The two state-

owned companies Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Egyptian Natural Gas

Holding Company are responsible for all issues regarding exploitation, production and export

of energy resources99.

The Nile Cone is the major gas field of Egypt and produces almost 70% of Egypt’s total

production. A 30% of the natural gas exported by Egypt is transited to the buying countries

through pipelines, while the other 70% is transited as Liquefied Natural Gas. Egypt has three

major liquefied natural gas facilities, capable of producing 600bcf per year100. The United

States, Spain and France are the major destinations for Egyptian LNG. Moreover, Egypt is

supplying natural gas to Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria through the Arab Gas Pipeline.

The existing Egyptian reserves are seemingly at their peak and a potential increase in the

produced quantities is dubious. In mid-term it is expected that at least the exported

quantities will be decreased101.

96 “Noble Energy starts up gas production from Mari-B field off Israel”, http://www.ogj.com/articles/2003/12/noble-energy-starts-up-gas-production-from-mari-b-field-off-israel.html . 97 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.28. 98 US Energy Information Agency, “Egypt energy country analysis”, http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=EG . 99 Ibid. 100 Ibid. 101 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.29.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2003/12/noble-energy-starts-up-gas-production-from-mari-b-field-off-israel.html

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2003/12/noble-energy-starts-up-gas-production-from-mari-b-field-off-israel.html

http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=EG



Obviously, Egyptian natural gas reserves and consequently its production can be increased

due to the newly discovered gas fields in the wider region of Eastern Mediterranean.

Specifically, according to the US Geological Survey the Nile Cone may contain up to 106tcf of

natural gas102. Egypt could also seek a bilateral agreement with Cyprus for the joint

exploitation of the neighboring gas fields located between the Egyptian and the Cypriot

EEZ103.

At the moment, especially after the ousting of Mohammed Morsi and the atypical military

coup, Egypt is heavily focused on its internal issues and its future is still fragile, with followers

of Muslim Brotherhood protesting on the streets despite the crackdown from the Egyptian

Army. Additionally, with western intervention imminent in Syria, the whole region is about

to be set on fire.

Syria

Syria, nowadays, produces mainly oil; however due to a possible depletion of its reserves,

the country is reorienting itself to the production of natural gas104. Syria has proven reserves

estimated around 8,5tcf natural gas and an annual production of 219bcf during 2009105.

The current domestic demand surpasses the natural gas production, so Syria has been

forced to import additional quantities of natural gas mainly from Egypt through the Arab Gas

Pipeline.

Before the civil war broke out, Syria had signed several agreements with countries like

Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Azerbaijan for the construction of pipelines transiting gas through the

Syrian territory towards the European market. However, the civil war, the diplomatic

isolation and the likely military intervention from the US and those willing to follow have

completely changed the scenery for the time being.

Anyhow, the civil war will end at some point, hopefully without causing a regional onslaught;

and Syria will remain a key actor in the regional energy security, especially since the US

Geological Survey reports strong possibility of gas fields containing up to 122tcf of natural

gas in the area between Syria’s, Lebanon’s and Israel’s EEZs106.

102 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p4. 103 Constantinos Filis, “The Hydrocarbons of Eastern Mediterranean; Converge Tool or Competition Product?”, aixmi.gr, 2012, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/ . 104 Iosif Iosifidis, “Energy Planning 2011-2030 and Geopolitics. Cyprus: Renewable Energy, Natural Gas. 27+12 countries together… and 1 against.”. Parga Publications, 2011, p.27. 105 US Energy Information Agency, “Syria energy country analysis”, http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SY . 106 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p5.

http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/

http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SY



Lebanon

Lebanon is not an oil or natural gas producing country, therefore is forced to import

resources in order to satisfy its domestic demand of energy resources, mainly oil, through

pipelines. Since 2009 Lebanon is importing small quantities of natural gas from Egypt trough

the Arab Gas Pipeline and is interested in participating in the Islamic Gas Pipeline project107.

Lebanon believes it can benefit from participating in the energy gambit in the Eastern

Mediterranean. Lebanon has made claims on portions of the gigantic Israeli gas field

Leviathan, while it intends to host licensing rounds for the exploitation rights of potential gas

fields in areas near the Cypriot EEZ108. The Lebanese reserves are estimated to be around

25tcf of natural gas, while there are reports that Lebanon may have reserves, which surpass

those of Cyprus. Such twist would highlight the importance of Lebanon in the region’s future

production109 .

Moreover, it is highly plausible for Lebanon and Cyprus to cooperate in the joint exploitation

of certain gas fields between their respective EEZs, after bilateral agreements110.

Unfortunately, Lebanon’s future is deeply intertwined with that of Syria, especially due to

the strong ties between Bashar Al-Assad, Iran and Hezbollah. A military intervention in Syria

most likely will affect Lebanon as well and if the situation escalates further, it is sure that the

country will be involved.

Turkey

Based on 2011 date, Turkey’s proven natural gas reserves are about 218bcf, while the

country’s production was about 25bcf of natural gas, solely used to satisfy domestic

consumption. The above mentioned production is from the Black Sea reserves with the

biggest one being the reserve located in the Marmara Sea111.

Evidently, the domestic production of natural gas does not suffice to cover the increasing

needs of Turkey, which amount to 1,3tcf per year. Therefore, Turkey is obliged to import

natural gas from Russian, Azeri and Iranian gas through the Romania-Bulgaria-Turkey

pipeline; the Blue Stream pipeline; the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline and the Iran-Turkey

pipeline112.

107 Natural Gas Europe,” Some Reasons to Materialize Iran, Iraq, and Syria’s Gas Pipeline”, 2013, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-iraq-and-syria-gas-pipeline . 108 Middle East Monitor, “Huge natural gas field discovered in Lebanese waters”, 2013, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/6171-huge-natural-gas-field-discovered-in-lebanese-waters . 109 Ibid. 110 Constantinos Filis, “The Hydrocarbons of Eastern Mediterranean; Converge Tool or Competition Product?”, aixmi.gr, 2012, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/ . 111 US Energy Information Agency, “Turkey energy country analysis”, http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TU . 112 Ibid.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-iraq-and-syria-gas-pipeline

http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/6171-huge-natural-gas-field-discovered-in-lebanese-waters

http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/6171-huge-natural-gas-field-discovered-in-lebanese-waters

http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/

http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TU



Apart from the pipelines, Turkey can import natural gas in LNG form as in the country

operates a facility, which is able to transform LNG to natural gas. Turkey’s main LNG

providers are Algeria and Nigeria113.

Turkey wishes to enhance its geopolitical role by becoming an major energy transit hub for

the natural gas exported from Russia, the Caspian countries and presumably Iran to the EU.

Already since 2007 the Greek-Turkish part of the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector

pipeline has been completed. This pipeline is capable of transferring up to 420bcf of natural

gas per year from Azerbaijan through Turkey, Greece and Italy to the European market114.

Given Turkey’s desire to establish itself as a regional power and dominant actor, it is natural

to expect that Turkey, especially after the latest discoveries of energy resources in the

Eastern Mediterranean, would be extremely interested in finding and exploiting its own

potential oil and natural gas reserves. However, this is easier said than done. In the Aegean

Sea both Turkey and Greece are unable to agree on the establishment of maritime

sovereignty zones and consequently any plans for exploration and exploitation from both

countries have been stopped. Additionally, Turkey has a casus belli on Greece, voted by the

Turkish national Parliament, in case Greece decides to increase its territorial waters to 12

nautical miles, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Furthermore, Turkey is trying to circumvent the Greek island of Kastelorizo pretending it is

not entitled to an EZZ and claims its own EEZ between the potential Greek EEZ and the

Cypriot EEZ, in order to gain access to the Herodotus Basin area -once more deliberately

ignoring the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Part VIII Article 121, which states that

islands are entitled to all maritime sovereignty zones including EEZ.

Turkey has maintained its hostile actions and rhetoric towards the Republic of Cyprus -even

threatening to use force against it, which is a blatant violation of the UN Charter Chapter I

Article 2 paragraph 4- in order to prevent Cyprus from exercising its sovereign rights to

explore and exploit the natural gas fields inside its own EEZ.

Moreover, on September 2011 Turkey concluded a continental shelf delimitation agreement

with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a political entity only recognized by Turkey115.

This agreement took place in order to pave the road for Turkey to explore and exploit

potential natural gas fields located in the area between Kyrenia, Karpasia, Mersina and

Iskenderun116.

113 Ibid. 114 Ibid. 115 Robert Ellis, “Cyprus at the crossroads”, New Europe online, 2011, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.neurope.eu/kn/article/cyprus-crossroads . 116 Andreas Philippou, “Cyprus gas exploration opportunities”, Baker Tilly International, 2012, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.bakertillyklitou.com/default.aspx?NewsID=196&typeid=15 .

http://www.neurope.eu/kn/article/cyprus-crossroads

http://www.bakertillyklitou.com/default.aspx?NewsID=196&typeid=15



Greece

Greece has so far no reliable data regarding proven or potential reserves of natural gas117,

however, Greece has a modest oil field in the area of Prinos operating since 1973. Despite

the lack of domestic production Greece is consuming natural gas in an increasing rate118,

mostly in the electricity production sector. Russia is Greece’s major natural gas exporter,

followed by Azerbaijan. Greece also imports LNG from Algeria119.

Particularly since 2004, the Hellenic Republic is steadily trying to enhance its role in the

wider geopolitical natural gas transit gambit from Russian and other countries from Central

Asia to the EU. Greece participated in the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector project and

revealed it interest in taking part in the South Stream project, which alongside the Nord

Stream aimed to circumvent Ukraine, following the tensions between Ukraine and Russia

from 2006 and on120.

Fueled by the economic crisis and the need for growth, the Greek Governments consider the

new discoveries of energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean as a viable option in order

to ease the burden of the crisis and improve the countries financial status. This led to a very

serious effort to establish an effective framework through which the exploration and

exploitation of oil and gas fields can be facilitated121.

According to the latest discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean, the most prolific regions

for Greece are the region south of the island of Crete and the region of the Herodotus Basin.

This is based on a special research published by the Technical University of Crete, which

noted that the geological similarities of those areas with other areas rich in hydrocarbons

are hinting to the existence of significant oil and gas reserves in these two regions. Their

observations are in accordance with the reports of the US Geological Survey, which

considers that these regions as “of increased interest”.

Greece needs to pursue more actively the exploration and exploitation of energy resources

in its sovereign zones of control, given the current financial crisis. It is necessary for Greece

to attract interest from foreign companies through licensing rounds for exploration and

exploitation rights. In addition the Greek Government should not only attempt to become an

energy resource producer but also establish itself as an important energy transit hub for the

newly discovered energy reserves in the region to the European market. Greece and South

East Europe is a very strong candidate for the transit of energy resources of the region to the

EU especially after the TransAdriaticPipeline has been selected to transfer the Azeri gas to

Europe.

117 US Energy Information Agency, “Overview data for Greece”, http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=GR&trk=m . 118 Ibid. 119 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.37. 120 Ibid. 121 Ibid.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=GR&trk=m



The role of the area as a transit region for global energy

production

In the previous part of this paper, we examined the contribution of the Eastern

Mediterranean as a producer of energy resources. We examined that at the moment the

region holds a lot of potential and could become a significant contributor on global energy

production in the years to come, if there is the necessary stability in the region to enable

them more forward and prosper.

At this part of our analysis in the region’s contribution to energy security, we will examine

how the Eastern Mediterranean can enhance its geopolitical role as an important energy

transit hub.

As stated above in the geography of the Eastern Mediterranean part of this paper, in the

Eastern Mediterranean are located two very important chokepoints for international trade;

the Suez Canal in Egypt and the Bosporus in Turkey. Suez Canal alone handles about 15% of

global maritime trade122. Both of these chokepoints are the most efficient sea trade routes

for the trade flow between the EU and its trade partners; Russia, the countries of the

Caspian, African countries, Central Asia, the Gulf States, India and the Far East.

Consequently, it is clear that through these chokepoints the EU receives most of its energy

resources from S. Arabia, Iraq, Iran (not after the UNSC sanctions), Russia, and Azerbaijan to

name a few.

The Bosporus in the main sea trade route between EU, Russia and the countries of the post-

soviet area, which represent a large portion of EU’s imports in oil and natural gas, while Suez

Canal is the main sea trade route between Europe and the countries of the Asian continent.

Except from the two chokepoints in Suez and Bosporus, the Eastern Mediterranean’s

geopolitical role as an energy transit hub can be enhanced through the completion of

projects that can offer alternative and diversified sources of energy, as it is proposed in the

EU’s Third Energy Package123. The South Stream Pipeline and the TransAdriaticPipeline

projects can assist in the efforts to enhance the Eastern Mediterranean’s role as an

important energy transit hub.

However, especially after the latest discoveries in the region, the major question that has

risen is if, how and where the new local producers will make available their resources. Many

of the countries in the region that have proven or potential energy reserves are depending

on imports to satisfy their domestic demands. The second issue is where these countries will

choose to export their energy resources, if indeed they decide to do so, in the nearby EU

market or to the hungry for gas and oil rising Asian giants – India and China. Lastly, how are

they going to export their resources through tankers or pipelines? These three issues, we

will try to examine in the following lines.

122 Jean-Paul Rodrigue,“The Geography of Transport Systems”, New York, Routledge, 2013. 123 European Commission,” Third package for Electricity & Gas markets”, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/gas_electricity/legislation/third_legislative_package_en.htm .

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/gas_electricity/legislation/third_legislative_package_en.htm



Exports and domestic needs

Whenever a country discovers energy reserves in its territory, has to make the decision on

whether it is going to use those reserves to satisfy its domestic needs or export them or

both.

If the country decides to both export and use some of its production to satisfy domestic

demands, it will have to decide the amounts it is going to dedicate for each purpose.

However, such decision as far from simple and straightforward in most of the cases. The

country must take in consideration its energy consumption mixture. For example if the

country’s economy is fully dependent on oil and it has discovered natural gas reserves,

which is the case for the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, then it has to consider how

it can modify its economy to benefit most from the newly discovered natural gas reserves.

This is the case for Cyprus. The islands economy is mostly based on oil consumption124,

however after the latest discoveries of natural gas reserves the government is trying to

encourage the transition to a more natural gas based economy. The results are not very

successful but nevertheless are encouraging. Similar is the case for Israel, which after the

discoveries and the exploitation of Leviathan and Tamar gas fields is actively pursuing to

alter its domestic consumption towards a more gas friendly mixture.

Obviously, such alterations in a county’s economy might face serious planning and financial

challenges, but that is why perhaps a country might choose to export its whole production if

altering its own domestic consumption mixture is not feasible.

Still such a choice is not an easy one to make as that country would still remain dependent

for its energy supply from third parties. This might turn into a dreadful event given the

volatile and fluid atmosphere that is ever-present in the area. For example, Israel, which is

importing energy resources from Egypt from the Arab Gas Pipeline, as we said in the

previous part of this paper, has found itself without natural gas for days and sometimes

even for weeks due to bomb attacks on the pipeline, mostly because of the turmoil in Egypt.

The situation is similar for Cyprus, as it faces a constant threat from Turkey. A starved for

energy economy is as useless as an army starved for fuel.

The continuous instability in the region may lead several countries in the region to opt for a

change in their energy consumption mixture that will favor natural gas in order to

strengthen their security. To the very least that would be a very rational option. Yet, it is still

very early to foresee, what path its country will follow since the majority of the fields have

not been explored and we done have concrete data on the existence or the size of gas fields

in the region125.

124 European Comission, Eurostat, “Energy Dependency rate - All Products, 2009 (% of net imports in gross inland consumption and bunkers, based on tonnes of oil equivalent)”, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Energy_dependency_rate_-_all_products,_2009_%28%25_of_net_imports_in_gross_inland_consumption_and_bunkers,_based_on_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29.png&filetimestamp=20111123174545 . 125 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.60-61.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Energy_dependency_rate_-_all_products,_2009_%28%25_of_net_imports_in_gross_inland_consumption_and_bunkers,_based_on_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29.png&filetimestamp=20111123174545






While the proven and the estimated so far energy resource reserves in Eastern

Mediterranean are significant, they cannot be compared with the potential of the major

international energy producers like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US (if we take into

account the shale gas boom, which is taking place in the country); and by no means cannot

satisfy the growing energy demands of the EU126.

Therefore, countries that are able to produce small amounts of energy resources will find it

very difficult to export their production due to the limited size of it and its higher cost for the

importers, when in competition against major international suppliers.

For that reason, the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean should seek to enhance their

cooperation and collaboration with each other, in order not only to increase their offered

quantities of energy resources, but it would enhance the role of the region on the

international energy map and would increase the power of the countries individually and

collectively. Through a collective exporting effort, small producers will have better chances

to attract interest from investors in the modern competitive energy market. Moreover, the

countries of the region, which traditionally don’t have the best relations with each other,

could use the field of energy exports as a tool which would assist them in overcoming their

old rivalries and differences. Cooperation would deter further hostilities and future conflicts

and could bring stability in the region, since it would help create friendly relations based on

mutual interests and economic growth. Already there are signs of such behavior from mainly

three countries in the region; Greece, Cyprus and Israel. Greece, Cyprus and Israel could be a

bright example, which could inspire other local players to join the aforementioned countries

in a wider spirit of cooperation. This existing cooperation is not a product of the selfish

motives of those three actors, but it is based on mutual interests of the whole Eastern

Mediterranean region127.

As we examined previously, the rivalries between the local players originated many years

ago and some can say that they have sunk deeply into the consciousness of the population,

this creates a risk that the countries of the region will not decide to cooperate together and

will opt to form different alliances based on the existing rivalries or new ones that may arise.

Indeed, this is quite possible and would only cause greater problems and greater instability

to the region. It could prove to be a great threat in regional security and maybe to the

international peace and stability128.

The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean should realize that conflict and hostility can only

cause pain and sorrow for their people and should pursue the path of cooperation, if the

genuinely seek peace and prosperity.

126 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.63. 127 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.64. 128 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.66-67.



Strategic Orientation

Having previously examined how the countries of the region will decide on the future use of

their energy resource production, now we will proceed examining, the potential target

markets for their exports. The two dominant options are Europe and Asia. The choice of the

destination of their energy resources will be based on several variants, such as: how the

energy resources will be transported, what will be the profit and the risk involves, which

companies are going to participate in the exploration and exploitation process.

The European energy market is a solid choice for any exporter, as most of the European

countries are poor in energy resources; as it is an open market with room for increasing the

market share for new players; and as it is actively seeking to limit is dependency from

Russian exports of oil and gas. Specifically the Third Energy Package prioritizes energy

security through its policies for diversified energy suppliers and the investment in better

infrastructure for the transit of energy resources. Moreover, the new legal framework

encourages and supports new players, who wish to get involved in the European energy

market129.

Europe is very dependent on energy resources imports and this is not going to change in the

future as it is estimated that Europe’s consumption of natural gas is going to increase by

2030130.

131

Moreover, since the events in Fukushima important European energy importers like

Germany has decided to reduce their usage of nuclear energy for security reason, while UK

129 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.71. 130 Eurogas, “Natural Gas Demand and Supply - Long Term Outlook to 2030”, http://www.eurogas.org/uploaded/Eurogas%20long%20term%20outlook%20to%202030%20-%20final.pdf , p.2–6. 131 Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/files/EU_FORECAST_TOWARDS_2020.PNG .

http://www.eurogas.org/uploaded/Eurogas%20long%20term%20outlook%20to%202030%20-%20final.pdf

http://www.eurogas.org/uploaded/Eurogas%20long%20term%20outlook%20to%202030%20-%20final.pdf

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/EU_FORECAST_TOWARDS_2020.PNG



and France are investing in modernizing their nuclear plants132. EU’s efforts to decrease its

dependency by traditional energy sources in favor of renewable energy sources have been

ineffective given the high cost and the lack of relevant technological inventions, which could

decrease the aforementioned cost and make renewable energy sources more viable. The

economic crisis and the austerity measures have also taken their toll on the investments on

green energy. As a result there is more room for increase in the EU’s consumption of natural

gas, which is the most environmental friendly from the existing traditional energy sources133.

The economic crisis in European Union are also going to force the EU Member States to seek

out deals, which will be financially prudent and guarantee relatively low prices. This could

limit the potential profit of the energy suppliers in the European market and make the Asian

market more prosperous and thus more attractive. However, the European market is more

politically stable, less competitive and a strategic cooperation between the EU and the

countries of the Eastern Mediterranean would provide additional benefits to the countries

of the region134.

Part of the Eastern Mediterranean belongs geographically to Europe, which means the cost

of the transit of energy resources smaller and would guarantee the exclusion of middle

parties, which would seek benefits as transit countries and increase the final price of the

commodities and therefore their competiveness135.

The European Union Member States has been peaceful with each other for over 60 years

and it is unlikely that they will go to war against each other for the coming years. While Asia

is a region filled with rivalries and disputes among the countries in it and conflicts are more

likely to take place in the region the next years, especially due to the arms race that is taking

place following the unquestionable rise of China. Based on this Europe is a much safer

export destination for the countries of Eastern Mediterranean is it is unlike that their supply

will be stopped through embargoes or blockades, which could take place if conflict would

take place in the Far East.

Greece and Cyprus are Member States of the European Union and any future energy

resources trade between the EU and the Eastern Mediterranean would increase their

influence inside the decision-making bodies of the Union. Additionally, the rest of the

Eastern Mediterranean countries have a long tradition of bilateral or multilateral relations

with the EU and its Member States, which would establish a future cooperation in the

energy sector more mature and familiar136.

132 Judy Dempsey and Jack Ewing, “Germany, in Reversal, Will Close Nuclear Plants by 2022”, The New York Times, 2011, Retrieved 28/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/world/europe/31germany.html?_r=0 . 133 NaturalGas.Org, “Natural Gas and the Environment”, Retrieved 28/08/2013 from

http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp . 134 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.74. 135 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.77-78. 136 Ibid.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/world/europe/31germany.html?_r=0

http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp



The Asian market is a huge energy market only if we take into consideration that it contains

India and China, the two most populous countries of the world with a continuous increase in

their yearly consumption of energy resources. Obviously the unquenchable thirst of this

market for more energy resources is guaranteeing consistent high prices and ample room for

new suppliers to sell their resources. However, the Asian market is a very competitive one

with major and rising international energy suppliers fighting for their share in it. Already,

Russia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, Yemen, Iran, Turkmenistan are striking long-term deals to

supply Asian countries with oil and gas. If we take into consideration the estimated vast

reserves of shale gas in the Chinese underground, which are still unrecoverable due to

China’s lack of appropriate technology, it is evident that the Asian market is very competitive

and fluid137. Also, given the comparatively small amount of energy resources that could be

produced from the Eastern Mediterranean countries, always based on the existing findings,

would make it more difficult to earn its place in the expanding Asian market.

The option of the European energy market seems much more viable from the choice of the

Asian market, which is a high risk-high reward choice.

Sea and Underwater Transit Routes

Another important issue, after it is decided where to export our energy resources, is to

choose how our resources will be transferred. The two options are either by an underwater

pipeline or by turning natural gas to LNG, which then will be loaded into special tankers and

will be transported to Europe.

At the moment, Israel and Cyprus are the only countries of the Eastern Mediterranean that

are capable in short-mid-term to export energy resources abroad. Therefore, if they decide

to export their resources through pipelines either in a joint or independent effort their most

sensible and low risk transit partner would be Greece. Potentially Palestinian and Egyptian

gas could be included in the equation, if political hindrances can be overcome. Israel, Cyprus.

Palestine and Egypt could in a short-term of 5-8 years manage to export their resources to

Europe, if they can reach into the necessary agreements. Greece and Lebanon cannot be

considered as potential producers for at least the next 10 and 15 years respectively138.

It is highly advisable that the countries should try to take part in a wide joint effort, which

will promote cooperation, peace and stability in the region. For this to become a reality, the

countries so refrain from isolating potential partners and actively pursue a path of joint

efforts. As stated above, creating two or more competitive sides in the region would be

devastating for the success chances of all. Therefore, countries should not exclude others

based on religious or political beliefs, but work towards creating a project that will

guarantee the prosperity and the well-being of the whole area.

Nevertheless, even if only Cyprus and Israel decide to export their resources through

Greece, the estimated available quantity of natural gas for exports would make the

137 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.78-79. 138 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.84.



construction of a new pipeline project through Greece more viable than transferring gas as

LNG via tankers. So the recommended route for Israeli or/and Cypriot gas exported to

Europe would be through Eastern Crete to Peloponnese, where natural gas could be

channeled through the existing or an upgraded or a new pipeline grid in Greece139.

So, there are two options for gas transport: the first is through underwater pipeline and the

second is through tankers. The pipeline could be consisting of one, two or three parts or to

be double and to have reserve flow capabilities. Specifically, the pipeline could connect

natural gas fields with Cyprus and Cyprus with Crete and Crete with Greek mainland. It could

also start from Israel or/and have double capacity so that it can transport Israeli gas as well.

Finally, Israel and Cyprus could connect each other by constructing an underwater pipeline.

From Greece the exported Israeli or/and Cypriot natural gas could be channeled through

Italy to West Europe and through Bulgaria to the Balkans140.

Transferring the natural gas through tankers requires the construction of LNG terminals in

the producing and importing countries. The construction of LNG terminals needs significant

funding and technological expertise. Funding especially is not very easy to accrue, since

LNG’s future recipient is not certain, as the producer can decide to who he wishes to sells his

resources at any given time141.

Researches have proven that the construction of an underwater pipeline towards Greece is

feasible despite its length, sea depth and the morphology of the terrain.

An underwater pipeline important security and stability advantages that can constitute is a

more attractive option. An underwater pipeline offers a steady and unhindered supply of

energy to the recipient. Tankers are subject to bad weather and are vulnerable to attacks,

piracy and market prices. Underwater pipelines located at 3000 meters depth are much

safer and guarantee the supply of gas to Europe. Moreover, the construction and the

operation of pipelines require the existence of long-term contracts, which provide a valuable

stability in the relations between buyer and seller142.

A pipeline grid, which could potentially inspire better relations, closer cooperation and

better understanding between the countries of the region is more viable from an economic

perspective, because the larger amounts of gas supplied, as a result of a regional

cooperation, the less the construction cost of the pipeline project would be. Therefore, once

more it is evident that cooperation and friendly relations between the countries of the

Eastern Mediterranean would be most beneficial for all the parties involved.

The European energy market mainly because of its low risk and institutionalized structure is

an attractive market for several other energy providers. This is the reason why the Eastern

139 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.85. 140 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.85-88. 141 Ibid. 142 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.89.



Mediterranean countries should act swiftly and gain early access to the European market

and funding from the EU as their first non-Russian gas provider of the South Energy Corridor.

Another important issue for the construction of a pipeline project is that requires the

involvement of big foreign companies that possess the financial muscle and technological

expertise to facilitate the timely completion of the project. Such companies might be

discouraged to invest in the turbulent area of the Eastern Mediterranean, especially after

the recent events. However, with the support and the cooperation of the EU, major

European Companies would be encouraged to invest. Russian companies Gazprom and

Rosneft have been interested in getting involved in the energy sector of the Eastern

Mediterranean as well. China has also declared interest in construction an LNG terminal in

Cyprus either aiming to infiltrate the European Market or to secure resources, which can be

imported to satisfy domestic consumption or to be resold in the Asian market143.

The role of the region on energy security for the EU/EU

member states

Energy security of a country is the sufficient and unhindered supply of energy resources. It is

achieved through the interaction of a number of variants, such as; the existence of necessary

suppliers and reserves, their integrity, the existence of an energy supply grid and the

security of the energy resources transit among others.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, energy security has two points of view. Firstly, securing the

necessary energy resources for the countries of the region and secondly, Eastern

Mediterranean’s role as a crucial energy corridor for the European Union. The regional

energy security is strengthened as a consequence of the latest discoveries of natural gas

fields. These discoveries are an opportunity to decrease the regional energy dependence

and an opportunity for economic growth.

So far the Eastern Mediterranean is a significant route for EU’s natural gas and oil imports,

as through the region is trafficked approximately 35% of EU’s natural gas consumption and

50% of its oil consumption.

European Energy Security is mainly pursued by seeking alternative suppliers and diversified

transit routes. Additionally, the EU wishes to encourage the consumption of renewable

energy sources, energy saving, harmonizing domestic markets with the rules of free market

and coordinating the legal framework in community level. The search for alternative energy

suppliers is not based on the fact that the EU needs more energy resources, but it is based

on the very high level of energy dependency from Russia.144

143 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.96-99. 144 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.102.



145

Russia’s dominant position in the European imports of energy resources is driving the EU to

seek alternates, which could decrease Russia’s influence. Russia seeks to control the transit

routes between itself and the EU, especially after the 2006 events with Ukraine. Nord

Stream and South Stream pipelines are Russian-inspired projects that could circumvent

Ukraine, which is the major energy transit hub between Russia and the EU.

Therefore, it is vital for the European Union to seek and find alternatives regarding the

supply and the transit of the energy resources, which will decrease its dependency from

Russia and strengthen its bargain capabilities in future bilateral agreements with Russia on

the energy market sector.

The future exports of natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region could be an ideal

option for the EU in its struggles to secure both alternative suppliers and transit routes. It

seems that the interests of both the EU and the Eastern Mediterranean’s countries coincide.

This creates an interdependency, which could lead to a long-term mutually beneficial

cooperation146.

The countries of Eastern Mediterranean are given the chance to play an additional key role

to European energy security. This would be the role of an alternative supplementary natural

gas provider of the Member States of the EU.

As it has been mentioned earlier, the currently estimated reserves of the Eastern

Mediterranean do not suffice to fully satisfy EU’s extremely high energy demands, therefore,

they cannot endanger Russia’s dominant role. The supplied natural gas could also make the

EU less vulnerable to future tension between Russia and Ukraine.

As mentioned before, Russia is extremely interested in acquiring its share in the rising

Eastern Mediterranean energy market. Ensuring its continued control over Europe’s energy

imports is an important goal and Moscow will definitely pursue it. Moscow realizes that if an

145 European Commission, Directorate General for Energy, “Key Figures”, 2011, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/countries/doc/key_figures.pdf , p.7. 146 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.105.

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/countries/doc/key_figures.pdf



independent connection between the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe is established, it

will hurt its own interests.

For Europe, the rise of the Eastern Mediterranean as a significant supplier of energy

resources is a great chance to deal with its security dilemmas towards Russia in the energy

sector and elsewhere. Moreover, a long-term cooperation between the countries of the

region and the EU will assist in forging strong partner relations, which in turn could help in

solving or limiting other major issues in the region like political instability, poverty and illegal

immigration147.

Europe has two options; either import natural as from the Eastern Mediterranean in the LNG

form, which would require building the necessary facilities, or to pursue a more stable

connection with the Eastern Mediterranean through a pipeline grid148.

It is important for the European Union to realize that its strength lies in its numbers and its

ability to act as one unit. If the EU wishes to tackle the issue of energy security effectively, it

must act as a unit, overcoming its bureaucracy and avoiding any delay.

So far our analysis indicates that for both the EU and the countries of the Eastern

Mediterranean, the most beneficial way of transferring energy resources between the two

areas is through the construction of pipeline grid, based on strategic, political and economic

interests, we will examine the potential route of this pipeline under the perspective of the

EU energy security interests.

Evidently, connecting the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe through Turkey would be the

cheapest option available. Turkey has already an extensive network of pipelines in its

territory, which is already used to supply European Market. Turkey is also a country with

increasing energy consumption, which could buy resources for its own use. However,

Turkey’s pipeline grid is old and is unlikely to accept a third party in its pipeline network149.

Another significant point is that, Turkey does not share the best relations neither with

Cyprus nor with Israel, despite the efforts from President Obama. In that respect, it can also

be said that Turkey does not have good relations with the rest countries of the region, like

Egypt (especially after recent comment made by PM Erdogan, who tried to blame Israel for

the latest upheaval in Egypt), Syria and Greece. In other words, such a project, which would

use Turkey as an energy hub, would most likely face strong opposition from the exporting

countries.

If the pipeline project would choose Turkey as its energy transit hub, would most likely make

Turkey, “the Ukraine of the South”. As Ukraine is the major transit energy hub for the energy

imports of EU trough Russia, Turkey would become Europe’s major transit hub of its South

Energy Corridor, giving Turkey significant influence and role in Europe’s energy security.

Obviously, Europe would rather not be so dependent on an unpredictable regional actor.

147 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.107-108. 148 Ibid. 149 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.109-110.



Any potential dispute or tension between Turkey and one of its neighbors that will be

supplying the EU with natural gas, could lead to cessation of continuous flow of energy

resources towards Europe150. Such a risk is highly probable and could deter investors,

importers, exporters and consumers, who demand continuous and unhindered flow of

resources and reliable and predictable partners151.

Most probably, Turkey would not be an ideal path through which the natural gas of the

Eastern Mediterranean could be transported to European energy market. On the other

hand, Greece, despite its current inconveniences, has always been a country with friendly

relations with its neighbors in the Mediterranean, obviously except Turkey, and could be a

suitable energy transit hub for the regions natural gas exported to Europe.

Greece for the last thirty years has enjoyed close relations with the Arab world, is a Member

State of the European Union and the Eurozone, therefore can be considered a reliable and

predictable partner. Geographically, Greece has always been, alongside with Cyprus since

2004, the southernmost frontier of the European Union in the region and constitute a

physical bridge between the EU and the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean152.

Another point is that the European Union should seek to avoid including many and different

legal systems during its interconnection with the producing countries of the Eastern

Mediterranean. Naturally, the Union should prefer to avoid using non-Member States as

transit partners and should support the role of its Member States in the region, as they can

guarantee the security of the transportation of the energy resources.

In the case of Greece as an energy transit hub for the natural gas from the countries of the

Eastern Mediterranean, the European Union could avoid non-European actors, so that there

are no conflicting interests. In other words, the choice of Greece as an energy transit hub

seems to be the less risky and more financially viable one for the European Union.

Although, with current data Greece seems the most reasonable choice, the situation and the

balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean are very fragile. There many variants that

could alter our current assessments and make other routes more viable. With the situation

in Syria looking more and more desperate, while the US seems determined to launch a

military operation against Assad and Turkey declaring ready to use its military against the

regime as well, Russia, China and Iran trying to deter any hostile actions against the Syrian

regime and Egypt being in turmoil after the military coup, everything is very fluid in the

region.

It is also possible that neither Cyprus nor Israel will choose to export their natural gas to

Europe; they could potentially export it as LNG to the Asian market. Greece and Cyprus

might be one nation but are still to independent international actors, nothing can or must be

150 Constantinos Filis, “Energy, Tool of Converge or Competition Product; The Case of the Eastern Mediterranean”, in Nikolaos Farantouris, “Energy, Law, Economy and Politics”, Athens, Law Library, 2012, p.441. 151 Ibid. 152 Constantinos Filis, “Energy, Tool of Converge or Competition Product; The Case of the Eastern Mediterranean”, in Nikolaos Farantouris, “Energy, Law, Economy and Politics”, Athens, Law Library, 2012, p.442.



taken as a given. After all, the much sought result is a viable, mutually accepted partnership

between as many regional actors as possible in order to ensure sufficient quantities of

natural gas, peace and stability in the region.

Nevertheless, both Greece and Cyprus are Members of the EU and their interests are aligned

with those of the Union. They both are obliged to adhere to European legislation and they

both have a saying in the decision-making procedure.

Nothing could be more ideal for the European Union if both its transit partner and its

producer are some of its own members. In a potential wider cooperation between the

countries of the region in the exporting efforts of natural gas, Greece as a transit partner and

Cyprus as one of the producers would be the best safety guarantee for the EU. Additionally

the accession of Israel in that close partner relation with Greece and Cyprus and any

potential inclusion of an Arab or Muslim country would only strengthen the strategic,

economic and political importance of the project153.

It is important to realize that Greece and Cyprus, for Israel, are reliable and honest

interlocutors, who could help it settle the disputes with its neighbors and normalize

diplomatic relations.

By enabling two of its own members to become reliable and important regional players in

the region of the Eastern Mediterranean, the EU strengthens its own influence and appeal in

the region. This could pave the road for closer cooperation between the EU and the

countries of the Region and could help solidify Europe’s influence in the region, especially

since the Arab Uprisings have left a huge void in the regional balance of power154.

Additionally, the financial benefits for Greece and Cyprus could help these countries

stimulate their economies and achieve the much needed growth. Such turn of events would

have a positive effect in the crisis stricken EU, which spends most of its resources to tackle

the crisis.

In other words, the region of the Eastern Mediterranean is a region of opportunities and

risks, the European Union and the countries of the region could benefit from a close

cooperation, however since the European Union is not famous for its quick reactions or its

adaptive capabilities. In my opinion, the past has always some interesting advices for the

troubles of the present, perhaps the European Union could benefit from that as well. A Latin

proverb says: “Audentes fortuna iuuat”, “fortune favors the bold”.

153 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.119. 154 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.120.



Conclusion

The Eastern Mediterranean has been since that beginning of human history has been one of

the most important regions. Its unique geographic location, a crossroad between three

continents, connecting Europe, Asia and Africa have made it home to some of the most

important civilizations, cultures and religions the have existed, from the Egypt of the

Pharaohs, the Roman Empire and the Greek City States to Byzantium and the Ottoman

Empire.

It has been inhabited by populations, so diverse with regards to their appearance

characteristics, culture, religion and political views, which lived peacefully and at times

waged devastating wars between each other. Their spiritual and intellectual prowess led

them to miraculous discoveries and inventions that changed the course of history forever.

As the international system expanded around them, steadily the countries of the region

claimed a more subtle role; however they never lost their strategic importance. Nowadays in

the second decade of the 21st century, the Eastern Mediterranean remains an integral region

to global trade, international peace, stability and energy security.

The last few years, the region was brought once more under the spotlight of international

attention, because of the international economic crisis that heavily affected many of its

countries and because of the Arab Uprisings, perhaps the most earthshaking event our this

century so far, which has caused the regional security framework to splinter.

These new sources of turmoil, alongside with the old ever-present rivalries in the region are

brewing an explosive and fragile mixture of balance, ready to be distorted and engulf the

whole region to flames. The situation in Syria is very dramatic and dangerous, as the United

States are preparing another coalition of the willing to strike against the regime of Bashar Al-

Assad and Russia urging the US to avoid getting involved in the internal affairs of Syria.

The latest discoveries of energy resources in the area, alongside potential additional

discoveries in the Nile Cone, the Herodotus Basin and the Levantine could either prove to be

another point of friction and conflict or could prove to be the glue that will forge new

alliances and partnerships in the region, aiming to benefit and strengthen all those involved.

With Cyprus and Israel having already discovered gas fields of significant size in the

Aphrodite, Leviathan and Tamar fields, other countries hope that they can possibly find

significant hydrocarbon reserves as well.

The exploitation of these reserves can enhance the geopolitical role of the countries

individually and the role of the region as a whole. If the countries of the Eastern

Mediterranean decide to put aside their differences and work together for the common

interest, they could reap the substantial rewards from exporting energy resources and

limiting their national dependencies from gas and oil imports.



So far Israel and Cyprus are the countries that in short-term could export natural gas, with

Greece being a valid and sound option as a transit hub if both or either of the two countries

choose to export their natural gas in the European Energy market. Indeed, those three

countries are developing strong relations and actively pursue close cooperation with each

other. Hopefully, other countries in the region can be inspired and express the will to

cooperate in order to mutually benefit and prosper. Of course, this remains to be seen since

the region remains quite fluid due to political instability in several major countries of the

region like Egypt and Syria.

The region’s future will depend on the strategic orientation each country will follow, the

choices they will make and the new balances that will be shaped. Greece and Cyprus have

the potential to become leading actors in the region, helping in the maintenance of stability,

as they have always shared close friendly relations with the countries of the Arab world and

currently share a strong partnership in different sectors with the State of Israel. Evidently,

they could play the role of the interlocutor and negotiator for these two sides and thus

facilitate and advance multilateral cooperation between the countries of the region.

Apart from that, Cyprus and Greece as members of the European Union can help their

neighbors and potential future partners in gaining the support and assistance from the

Union, not only in the energy sector, but in other aspects such as economic cooperation,

immigration and political stability. Additionally, the European Union could benefit from two

of its members playing a crucial role in the region of the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece as a

potential energy transit hub and Cyprus as one of the suppliers of natural gas for the Union,

could guarantee the safety and unhindered supply of natural gas to Europe. That would be

an alternate source from Russia and would prevent Turkey from becoming the “Ukraine of

the South” by being able to the only transit route of alternative energy sources for the

European Union.

Moreover, the EU could benefit from the enhanced role of two of its Member States in the

region to assert and increase its own influence in its neighboring and troublesome region of

the Eastern Mediterranean and thus establish itself as the key actor in the area.

Sadly, the European Union seems paralyzed by the economic crisis and is in an introvert

state and seems unwilling to take risks and pursue opportunities. Russia is determined to

maintain and increase its influence in the region, in order to protect its interests in having an

energy dependent EU and assert itself as the major stakeholder in the region.

Nevertheless, the competition in both the European and Asian energy markets is increasing

and the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean need to act in a swiftly manner if they are to

secure a significant share in either market.

Swift action should not become rush action, once more it must be highlighted that only by

achieving a cooperation as wide as possible, peace and stability in the region can be

maintained. The creating of two or more competitive alliances in the region would be

catastrophic.



One last thing the countries of the region should take into consideration while they pursue

their dream of becoming energy producers is that of the environment. The Mediterranean

Sea is an almost enclosed sea, with its own unique and fragile ecosystem, that has, is and

will be vital for their survival. After all many countries on the region earn a great portion of

their revenue from tourist, for example Greek Tourism accounts for approximately 16% of its

GDP.

Cooperation with each other and the Mother Nature is crucial for a peaceful and safe future.

The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, like every other country, should always keep

that in mind and try to make compromises and forge strong times with each other, based on

respect, honesty and mutual interests. All-inclusive deals might not be perfect but are better

and advance regional stability.



Bibliography Associated Press. "Turkey’s Erdogan says Israel behind Egyptian leader’s ouster; Egyptian

Cabinet slams claim." Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-erdogan-says-israel-

behind-egyptian-leaders-ouster-says-has-evidence-to-prove-

it/2013/08/20/9da8d9b8-0984-11e3-89fe-abb4a5067014_story.html (accessed

August 23, 2013).

Authority, Suez Canal. Importance of the Canal. 2013.

http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/sc.aspx?show10 (accessed August 05, 2013).

Bowen, Jeremy. "Arab Uprisings: 10 Key Moements." BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20626645 (accessed August 22,

2013).

Breasted, J.H. Ancient Times: a History of the Early World. Boston: Ginn and Company, 1916.

Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony. The importance of Eastern

Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU. Technical University of Crete, 2011.

Bryson, Thomas A. Tars, Turks, and Tankers: The Roles of the United States Navy in the

Middle East. New Jersay and London: Scarecrow Press Inc., 1980.

C.I.A. "The World Fact Book." https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/fields/2195.html (accessed August 22, 2013).

—. "The World Fact Book." https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/geos/is.htm (accessed August 26, 2013).

C.Koliopoulos. The Grand Strategy of Ancient Sparta 750-192 B.C. Athens: Poiotita

Publications, 2007.

Cropsey, Seth. "Will U.S. Choose the Right Side in the Eastern Mediterranean?" Hudson

Institute. 2013. http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659

(accessed July 20, 2013).

"Cyprus’ second offshore bidding round: Expectations exceeded." Cyprus Profile. 2012.

http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-second-offshore-bidding-

round.

Dempsey, Judy and Ewing, Jack. "Germany, in Reversal, Will Close Nuclear Plants by 2022."

The New York Times. 2011.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/world/europe/31germany.html?_r=0

(accessed August 28, 2013).

Dettmer, Markus and Reiermann, Christian. "Bailing Out Oligarchs: EU Aid for Cyprus A

Political Minefield for Merkel." Der Spiegel. 2012.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-intelligence-report-warns-

cyprus-not-combating-money-laundering-a-865451.html.



Dimopoulou, Aggeliki. "Interview with Prof. C. Filis: Why Gazprom Backed off?" tvxs.gr. 2013.

http://tvxs.gr/news/ελλάδα/γιατί-έκανε-πίσω-η-gazprom (accessed June 12, 2013).

Dixon, Hugo. "Turkey’s economy is vulnerable." Reuters. http://blogs.reuters.com/hugo-

dixon/2013/06/17/turkeys-economy-is-vulnerable/ (accessed August 22, 2013).

Dziadosz, Alexander and Perry, Tom. "Around 250 bodies held at Cairo mosque after

violence." Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-egypt-protests-

bodies-idUSBRE97E0CY20130815 (accessed August 22, 2013).

Ed Payne, Greg Botelho and Mohammed Tawfeeq. "Opposition presses for weapons as Syria

death toll tops 100,000." CNN.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/26/world/meast/syria-violence/?iref=obinsite


Ellis, Robert. "Cyprus at the crossroads." New Europe online. 2011.

http://www.neurope.eu/kn/article/cyprus-crossroads (accessed August 27, 2013).

Eurogas. "Natural Gas Demand and Supply - Long Term Outlook to 2030."

http://www.eurogas.org/uploaded/Eurogas%20long%20term%20outlook%20to%20

2030%20-%20final.pdf.

European Comission, Eurostat. "Energy Dependency rate - All Products, 2009 (% of net

imports in gross inland consumption and bunkers, based on tonnes of oil

equivalent)."

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Energy_d

ependency_rate_-

_all_products,_2009_%28%25_of_net_imports_in_gross_inland_consumption_and_

bunkers,_based_on_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29.png&filetimestamp=2011112317

4545 (accessed August 28, 2013).

European Commission. "Third package for Electricity & Gas markets ."

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/gas_electricity/legislation/third_legislative_package_en

.htm (accessed August 28, 2013).

European Commission, Directorate General for Energy. "Key Figures." 2011.

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/countries/doc/key_figures.pdf.

Fenwick, Sarah. "Noble Energy Drilling Rig Arrives - Army, Reserves on Alert." 2011.

http://www.cyprusnewsreport.com/?q=node/4626.

Fertile Crescent, Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 2013.

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/205250/Fertile-Crescent (accessed

August 05, 2013).

Filis, Constantinos. "Energy, Tool of Converge or Competition Product; The Case of the

Eastern Mediterranean." In Energy, Law, Economy and Politics, by Nikolaos

Farantouris, 435-443. Athens: Law Library, 2012.



—. "The Hydrocarbons of Eastern Mediterranean; Converge Tool or Competition Product?"

aixmi.gr. 2012. http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/


—. The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security. Athens: CERE-Institute of

International Relations, 2012.

Freytas-Tamura, Kimiko de. "Turkey protests reveal fault-lines in economic success." BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22778768 (accessed August 22, 2013).

Gardner, Frank. "How vital is Syria's Tartus port to Russia?" BBC. 2012.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18616191 (accessed August 25,

2013).

Gardner, Lloyd C. Three Kings: The Rise of an American Empire in the Middle East after Wolrd

War II. New York: The New Press, 2009.

"Gazprom: We are not going to leave from the Greek market." Epikaira.gr. 2013.

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=60893&category_id=89 (accessed June 20,

2013).

Gilpin, Robert. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,

1981.

Holmes, Oliver and Evans, Dominic. Israel strikes Syria, says targeting Hezbollah arms.

Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-blasts-

idUSBRE94400020130505 (accessed August 22, 2013).

Holslag, Jonathan. "Naval Visits Accustom Mediterranean to New Role." Global Times. 2012.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/724645.shtml (accessed August 20, 2013).

"IMF To Israel: Start Planning New SWF." Oxford SWF Project. 2011.

http://oxfordswfproject.com/2011/01/25/imf-to-israel-start-planning-new-swf/.

International Crisis Group. Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue? Europe

Report, International Crisis Group , 2012.

Iosifidis, Iosif. Energy Planning 2011-2030 and Geopolitics. Cyprus: Renewable Energy,

Natural Gas. 27+12 countries together… and 1 against. Parga Publications, 2011.

Isachenkov, Vladimir. "Russian Navy to Deploy Mediterranean Fleet in Bid to Protect

National Security." Associated Press, 2013.

Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs. HISTORY: The State of Israel. 2013.

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/AboutIsrael/History/Pages/HISTORY-

%20The%20State%20of%20Israel.aspx.



"Israelis and Palestinians resume peace talks at dinner hosted by John Kerry." The Telegraph.

2013. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/10210235/Israelis-

and-Palestinians-resume-peace-talks-at-dinner-hosted-by-John-Kerry.html (accessed

August 22, 2013).

Issacharoff, Avi. "Israel scratching its head after US officials (again) leak Syria strike." The

Times of Israel. 2013. http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-scratches-its-head-after-

us-officials-leak-syria-strike/ (accessed August 22, 2013).

Kampfner, John. "NS Interview - Jack Straw." New Statesman. 2002.

http://www.newstatesman.com/node/144241.

Kausch, Kristina. "Can the Crisis Unlock Euro-Mediterranean Relations?" FRIDE Policy Brief

no.139. 2012. http://www.fride.org/publication/1079/can-the-crisis-unlock-euro-

mediterranean-relations.

Kershner, Isabel. "Rockets Are Fired Toward Israel From Southern Lebanon." The New York

Times. 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/world/middleeast/rockets-fired-

from-lebanon-toward-israel.html?_r=0 (accessed August 23, 2013).

Kim, Younkyoo and Blank, Stephen. "Russo-Turkish Divergence Part I: The Security

Dimension." Gloria Center. 2012. http://www.gloria-center.org/2012/04/russo-

turkish-divergence-part-i-the-security-dimension/ (accessed August 23, 2013).

Kramer, Andrew E. "Russia Seding Warships on Maneuvers Near Syria." The New York Times.

2012. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/middleeast/russia-sends-

warships-on-maneuvers-near-syria.html?_r=0 (accessed August 22, 2013).

Landon, Thomas Jr. "Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey." The New York

Times. n.d. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/europe/financial-fears-as-

street-unrest-shakes-turkey.html?pagewanted=all (accessed August 22, 2013).

Lee, Mathew. "Israel-Palestine Peace Talks To Start Monday Following Months Of John Kerry

Diplomacy." Huffington Post. 2013.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/28/israel-palestine-peace-talks-

kerry_n_3667962.html (accessed August 22, 2013).

Lin, Christina Y. "China’s strategic shift toward the region of the four seas: the Middle

Kingdom arrives in the Middle East." Gloria Center. 2013. http://www.gloria-

center.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-

middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/.

Lin, Christina Y. The New Silk Road: China’s Energy Strategy in the Greater Middle East. Policy

Focus #109, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011.

Magen, Zvi. "The Empire Strikes Back?" INSS Insight No.381. 2012.

http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10449 (accessed

August 20, 2013).



Mahan, Alfred Thayer. The Influence of Sea Power Upon History. New York: Sagamore, 1957.

Mankoff, Jeffrey. Resource Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The View from Washington.

Washington: The German Marshall Fund of The United States, 2012.

Michael Kyprianou & Co LLC. "HYDROCARBONS IN CYPRUS; Drilling for natural gas reserves."

http://www.kyprianou.com.cy/assets/mainmenu/216/docs/HydrocarbonsinCyprus.

pdf.

Middle East Monitor. "Huge natural gas field discovered in Lebanese waters." Middle East

Monitor. 2013. http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/6171-huge-

natural-gas-field-discovered-in-lebanese-waters (accessed August 27, 2013).

Natural Gas Europe. "Some Reasons to Materialize Iran, Iraq, and Syria’s Gas Pipeline."

Natural Gas Europe. 2013. http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-iraq-and-syria-

gas-pipeline (accessed August 27, 2013).

NaturalGas.Org. "Natural Gas and the Environment." NaturalGas.Org.

http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp.

"Noble Energy starts up gas production from Mari-B field off Israel." Oil & Gas Journal. 2003.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2003/12/noble-energy-starts-up-gas-production-from-

mari-b-field-off-israel.html.

Nopens, Patrick. Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean. Brussels: EGMONT – Royal

Institute for International Relations, 2013.

Papasotiriou, Harry. China from the Heavenly Empire to the Rising Superpower of the 21st

century. Athens: Poiotita Publications, 2013.

—. Grand Strategy of Byzantium 6th-11th A.D. . Athens: Poiotita Publications, 2007.

Perlez, Jane. "Panetta Outlines New Weaponry for Pacific." The New York Times - Asia-

Pacific, June 1, 2012.

Philippou, Andreas. "Cyprus gas exploration opportunities." Baker Tilly International. 2012.

http://www.bakertillyklitou.com/default.aspx?NewsID=196&typeid=15 (accessed

August 27, 2013).

"Possible Military Coup in Egypt." STRATFOR. 2013.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/possible-military-coup-

egypt?utm_source=freelist-

f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130703&utm_term=RedAlert&utm_cont

ent=readmore&elq=69e54b26bf4e4018b9116ba27f7c57d2 (accessed 08 22, 2013).

Rodrigue, Jean-Paul. The Geography of Transport Systems. New York: Routledge, 2013.

Rudoren, Jodi and Landler, Mark. "With Obama as Broker, Israelis and Turkey End Dispute."

The New York Times. 2013.



http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/world/middleeast/president-obama-

israel.html?pagewanted=all (accessed August 2013, 2013).

Russel, Walter. "The Geopolitics of Greece’s Exit from the Euro." The American Interest.

2012. http://blogs.theamerican-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/17/the-geopolitics-of-

greeces-exit-from-the-euro/.

Russia Today. "Gazprom May Buy Gas Company DEPA from Cash Hungry Greece." Russia

Today. 2012. http://rt.com/business/news/gazprom-depa-greece-crisis-127/


Solana, Javier. "A Europe for the World." Project Syndicate. 2012. http://www.project-

syndicate.org/commentary/europe-s-global-leadership-by-javier-solana.

Stergiou, Andreas. "Russian Policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Implications for EU

External Action." EU Institute of Security Studies. 2012.

http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/russian-policy-in-the-eastern-

mediterranean-and-the-implications-for-eu-external-action/.

Syrigos, Aggelos. In Greece-Turkey Relations from Lausanne til today. 2012.

Tellegen-Couperus, Olga. Short History of Roman Law. London: Routledge, 1993.

Theodore Couloumbis, Thanos Dokos, Dimitris Katsikas, and Dimitris Sotiopoulos. On the

Brink. Greece and the European Financial Crisis.” In Europe in Trouble. Domestic and

Foreign Policy Challenges of the Financial Crisis, Mediterranean Series 2012. The

German Marshall Fund of the United States - Instituto Affari Internazionali, 2012.

Tsaltas, Gregorios. Geography in the International Studies. Athens: I.Sideris Publications,

2011.

U.S. Department of Defense. "Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st

Century Defense." January 2012.

Udasin, Sharon. "Natural gas from Tamar field starts flowing." The Jerusalem Post. 2013.

http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Report-Gas-from-Tamar-field-to-come-

online-Sunday-308186 (accessed August 27, 2013).

United Press International. "Gazprom makes deal for Israeli LNG." United Press International.

2013. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-

Resources/2013/02/27/Gazprom-makes-deal-for-Israeli-LNG/UPI-

80191361966184/?rel=44571362763502 (accessed August 25, 2013).

—. "Russia muscles in on East Med gas boom." United Press International. 2013.

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/03/08/Russia-

muscles-in-on-East-Med-gas-boom/UPI-44571362763502/ (accessed August 25,

2013).



US Energy Information Administartion. "Cyprus energy country analysis."

http://205.254.135.7/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=CY&trk=m (accessed August

27, 2013).

US Energy Information Agency. "Egypt energy country analysis."

http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=EG (accessed August 27, 2013).

—. "Overview data for Greece." http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-

data.cfm?fips=GR&trk=m (accessed August 27, 2013).

—. "Syria energy country analysis." http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SY


—. "Turkey energy country analysis." http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TU


Watson, Adam. The Evolution of International Society. A Comparative Historical Analysis.

London: Routledge, 1992.

Wong, Edward. "Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power." The New York Times.

2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24navy.html?pagewanted=all&_r

=0 (accessed August 20, 2013).

Xinhua. "Cyprus says China's state energy company interested in gas prospecting." 2012.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7747996.html (accessed August 25, 2013).

Zalewski, Piotr. "How Turkey Went From 'Zero Problems' to Zero Friends." Foreign Policy.

2013.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/21/how_turkey_foreign_policy_we

nt_from_zero_problems_to_zero_friends?page=0,1 (accessed August 23, 2013).

The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean in International Security

Documents

Transcript of The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean in International Security