PANTEION UNIVERSITY OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, COMMUNICATION AND CULTRURE
DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL, EUROPEAN AND AREA STUDIES
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean
on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
8/30/2013
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean in International
Security
Contents
Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 2
The geography of East Mediterranean ...................................................................................... 3
The historical role of East Mediterranean ................................................................................. 5
The East Mediterranean today .................................................................................................. 8
The contribution of the East Mediterranean in Energy security ............................................. 17
The role of the area as a producer of energy resources ..................................................... 24
The role of the area as a transit region for global energy production ................................ 34
The role of the region on energy security for the EU/EU member states .......................... 41
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 46
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 49
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
Introduction
Inspired by the continuous twists and changes in the economic, political, cultural and
geopolitical areas in one of the most historic regions of the world, this research aims in
assisting the development of a cohesive understanding of the contemporary contribution of
the Eastern Mediterranean in International Security.
In order to achieve this goal, we will attempt to comprehend the geography of the region
and its role in the rise of some of the most profound civilizations throughout the course of
human history. Later, we will proceed further by examining the situation today in the region
under the spectrums of the Hellenic-Turkish rivalry, the Arab Uprisings, the Arab-Israeli
conflict, the monetary and economic crisis. Furthermore we will examine the importance of
the region for a major global stakeholder, the European Union and its member-states.
Our main objective will be to highlight the aspect of energy security, in which the Eastern
Mediterranean holds a significant role –especially─ nowadays, if we take under
consideration its active contribution in the transit of energy resources, its potential rise as a
significant producer region of an adequate proportion of global energy supply. Additionally,
we will analyze the impact of several destabilizing effects on the role of the region in
International Energy Security.
At this point, I would like to thank my friends and family, whose encouragement and
assistance has been the greatest motivation anyone could ever ask for.
Furthermore, I would like to thank all my university Professors, whose presence during my
first 4 academic years, have inspired me to pursue passionately greater knowledge in the
fields of International Relations and Security.
Additionally, I feel obliged to thank all the embassy and government officials that
cooperated with me and offered their assistance, support and knowledge during my
research, their contribution has been more than essential, because their ideas, point of
views and practical experience are those that affect the decision making process by a great
deal.
Last but not least, I would like express my sincere gratitude to my Professor Constantinos
Filis, for his continuous and vital assistance and guidance during my research and writing of
this essay, because without his contribution this paper wouldn’t have been possible. I would
also like to thank Prof. Filis for his lectures, which motivated me in researching one of the
most prolific and continuously evolving subjects of International Security, the Energy
Security.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
The geography of East Mediterranean
At this part of this research paper, we will examine the geography of the Eastern
Mediterranean, in an attempt to understand its position in the globe, its boundaries, the
geographical key points it includes.
The Mediterranean Sea was created through the movements of the Earth’s plates. When the
ancient landmass of Pangaea broke apart about 250 million years ago a huge ocean, the
Tethys, evolved around its middle. This ocean extended to the north of today’s Alps and to
the east as far as the Ural Mountains. When Africa and Europe started moving towards each
other this ocean became smaller. The Mediterranean Sea is what is left of this large ancient
ocean.
The Mediterranean Sea is a very large sea that is bounded by Europe, Africa and Asia and
stretches from the Strait of Gibraltar on the west to the Dardanelles and the Suez Canal on
the east. It is almost completely enclosed aside from these narrow locations.1 Because it is
almost landlocked the Mediterranean has very limited tides and it is warmer and saltier than
the Atlantic Ocean. This is because evaporation exceeds precipitation and runoff and
circulation of the sea's waters does not occur as easily as it would if were more connected to
the ocean, however, enough water flows into the sea from the Atlantic Ocean that is water
level does not fluctuate much. The topography of the land surrounding the Mediterranean
Sea is varied and there is an extremely rugged coastline in is northern areas. High mountains
and steep, rocky cliffs are common here. In other areas though the coastline is flatter and
dominated by desert.
Geographically, the Mediterranean Sea is divided into two different basins - the Western
Basin and the Eastern Basin. The Western Basin extends from the Cape of Trafalgar in Spain
and the Cape of Spartel in Africa in the west to Tunisia's Cape Bon in the east. The Eastern
Basin stretches from eastern boundary of the Western Basin to the coasts of Syria and
Palestine2.
The Eastern Mediterranean consists of: the Adriatic Sea, the Ionian Sea, the Aegean Sea, the
Libyan Sea, the Cilician Sea, the Levantine Sea and their surrounding areas, which include the
majority of the countries located in the Mediterranean Sea. The main countries among
others are Albania, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Egypt, Turkey, Libya, Israel,
the Palestinian Authorities, Lebanon and Syria. It can also be considered that the United
Kingdom has territorial presence in the region since it controls overseas territories on the
Island of Cyprus.
The Eastern Basin of the Mediterranean Sea includes two of the most important chokepoints
for global trade, the Suez Canal and the Bosporus. These two chokepoints possess an
extremely important strategic and geopolitical role in global trade, as they connect
1 G. Tsaltas, ” Geography in the International Studies”, Athens, I. Sideris Publications, 2011, p.156. 2 Ibid.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
European markets with Asian ones and link the Black Sea - and of course the oil and gas
produced from the Caspian Sea – to the Mediterranean.
Furthermore, despite the fact that the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea are not
considered to be a cohesive, unified geographical region as the Black Sea is considered to
belong in the region of Eastern Europe, there is an unquestionable connection between the
two of them, as both Seas share the same marine ecosystem3, their past, present and future
are deeply intertwined.
The Eastern Mediterranean also includes a great portion of the Fertile Crescent4, which has
been essential for the development of all the civilizations that existed in the region. The
Fertile Crescent includes a roughly crescent-shaped area of relatively fertile land which
probably had a more moderate, agriculturally productive climate in the past than today,
especially in Mesopotamia and the Nile valley. 5
The Fertile Crescent in its wider extension corresponds exactly to the region that plays a
dominant role in the Hebrew traditions of Genesis; it also contains the ancient countries of
Babylonia, Assyria, Egypt and Phoenicia from which the Greeks and Romans derived
civilization. This age-old belief that the earliest known culture originated in the Fertile
Crescent has been confirmed by the development of radiocarbon dating since 1948. It is now
known that incipient agriculture and village agglomerations there must be dated back to
about 8000 B.C., if not earlier, and that the use of irrigation followed rapidly.6
Based on the above, might be safe to agree with the remarks of Prof. G. Tsaltas that the
Mediterranean might be the most important regional sea in the world7, not because of its
importance in the modern history, but in an accumulated measurement starting from the
very first civilizations and all those things that it is owed to them from the modern man,
whether those might be scientific or technological discoveries and inventions or social and
cultural traditions that have shaped humanity and made everything we have achieved as a
species possible.
In the next part of this paper, we will analyze how the region of Eastern Mediterranean
affected the course of human history throughout the centuries, discussing the major
civilizations that grew and developed in the region.
3 G. Tsaltas, ”Geography in the International Studies”, Athens, I. Sideris Publications, 2011, p.150. 4 J.H. Breasted, ”Ancient Times: a History of the Early World”, Boston, Ginn and Company, 1916. 5 ”Fertile Crescent”, Encyclopædia Britannica Online, Retrieved 05 August, 2013, from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/205250/Fertile-Crescent 6 Ibid. 7 G. Tsaltas, ”Geography in the International Studies”, Athens, I. Sideris Publications, 2011, p.156.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
The historical role of East Mediterranean
In our search for knowledge and understanding of the world around us, we must never
neglect the past, as the past is essential if we are to comprehend the cyclical evolutions of
history. As Gilpin says, ‘believing that the past is not merely prologue and that the present
does not have a monopoly on the truth, we have drawn on historical experience’.8
From the beginning of human history, as it is written by the scholars of those times,
Mediterranean has been the cradle of civilization, the birthplace and the deathbed of
empires, cultures and religions, especially the Eastern half of it. Its pivotal role in shaping the
history and the future of mankind is evident and undeniable.
Additional proof that explicitly underlines the great influence that Mediterranean had on the
civilizations that lived and prospered around its shores is extracted by the several names it
was given. The term Mediterranean derives from the Latin word mediterraneus, meaning "in
the middle of earth" or "between lands"; as it is between the continents of Africa, Asia and
Europe. The Greek name Mesogeios (Μεσόγειος), is similarly acknowledging it as the middle
of the earth. The Romans commonly called it Mare Nostrum9 (Latin, "Our Sea").In the Bible,
it was primarily known as the "Great Sea".
The Eastern Mediterranean has been a very prolific region, since it hosted several major
actors in the international chessboard for the past millennia; such as the Minoans,
Phoenicians, the ancient Greek City-States, Persia, Egypt, the Roman Empire, Byzantium,
Venice, the Ottoman Empire and the British Empire.
Throughout the course of history, the area of the Eastern Mediterranean has given birth to
some of the most important religions that ever existed on our planet: Christianity, Judaism
and Islam, which account for at least 3 out of the 7 billion of human population on earth. All
of these three religions consider as a holy city of theirs the city of Jerusalem in modern
Israel. This fact has two very important consequences; a global and a regional.
The global consequence is that because of this tri-partite holiness of the area, a new type of
war emerged in the international scene of politics, at the very list as a reason or an excuse to
go at war against another international actor. Until that point, no war had taken place
against people who believed in different a deity. The Egyptians, the Romans , the Greeks, the
Persians waged several wars against people who didn’t shared the same religious
background, but that religious difference was never a part of this conflict. Explicitly,
Alexander the Great and then the Romans, who both established vast empires, did not
attempt to alter the religious habits of their new subjects, on the contrary they respected
them and allowed a respectable freedom of religious affairs to the respective local
populations.
8 R. Gilpin, ”War and Change in World Politics”, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1981, p. 11. 9 O.Tellegen-Couperus, ”Short History of Roman Law”, London, Routledge, 1993.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
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However, as soon as Christianity and Islam became widespread, there have been numerous
religious wars, with sole, publicly mentioned at least, purpose to punish the non-believers,
reclaim the holy lands or spread the word of god. Of course always we will have to calculate
the economic benefits, which would arise for those that would win the wars, but still the fact
remains that a great number of soldiers and kings, that took place in these holy wars were
moved mostly by religious sentiments.
In other words, the region of Eastern Mediterranean gave birth to what later was called war
of ideas or ideologies. It started with the power struggle between ancient Athens and
Sparta, which resulted in a war between two political governance ideologies -democracy and
oligarchy- and then the religious hatred and wars that plague our societies until today.
The regional consequence is that the city of Jerusalem and the wider region of Palestine
have been contested till today by the Jewish and the Arab people and has led to almost ten
wars between these people during the last 60 years.
Arguably, the region of Eastern Mediterranean has been one of the most war stricken areas
in the world throughout the human history, if not the most war stricken area. All these
confrontations between the great civilizations and empires and their lesser neighbors
definitely place the region as a major contender. Evidently, the people of the region
meddled a lot with military strategy and tactics, military education and training inheriting to
the world a great amount of knowledge, which was, later on, revolutionized and improved
by the next generations. The ancient Greek city-state of Sparta is an excellent example. The
Spartans, perhaps the most iconic and feared army of the antiquity, are famous for their
feats, bravery, discipline, organization, strategic and tactical prowess even today. Many of
the contemporary military arts can be traced back to the Spartan Warfare techniques, such
as scouting and reconnaissance, discipline, logistics planning and chain of command.
Another example is the Roman naval strategy used against Attila in the 2nd Cartagena War,
where Romans exploited their naval supremacy to transfer reinforcements and prevent
Attila from receiving his10. Moreover, the Romans are praised for their development and use
of infrastructure for military purposes such as roads for the faster transportation of troops
and supplies.
Another quite obvious reason of the great importance of the region during the human
history is the scientific, technological, social and cultural achievements of the people that
inhabited that region. From writing, seafaring, astronomy, mathematics, sculpture, painting,
architecture, geometry, literature, medicine, metallurgy, coinage to trade, governance, laws.
Unquestionably, modern Western civilization owes a lot to the ancient Greek and Roman
civilizations, which are rightfully considered the foundations of our modern western
societies.
The Eastern Mediterranean always had tremendous economic importance. As stated in the
part of this paper regarding the geography of the region of Eastern Mediterranean, this
region is the crossroad between three continents Europe, Asia and Africa. The trade
potential from coastal areas of these three continents is huge, if we take under
10 Alfred Thayer Mahan, ”The Influence of Sea Power Upon History”, New York: Sagamore Press, 1957.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
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consideration the great numbers of raw materials –gems, gold, silver, copper, iron, lumber,
stone-, manufactured products –glass, papyrus, jewelry-, food, animals and slaves that could
be exchanged between the populations of these areas. Additionally, we are obliged to
consider the great influence of the Bosporus straits, the Silk Road and later on the Suez
Canal in the trading capabilities of the region. Before the opening of the Suez Canal, the Silk
Road was the only reliable trade route between the people of Europe and the Far East. The
Italian States of Venice and Florence owe much of their power and might to their ability to
have consistent and unhindered access to the Silk Road and the products being transported
through it and then selling them to the rest of Europe.
The very same reasons made the City of Byzantium, known as well as New Rome,
Constantinople and Istanbul one of the greatest commercial cities of the world. However,
Constantinople also possessed another advantage, as it is located on the Bosporus and
controls the strategic chokepoint of all the trade originating from the Black Sea, the Caspian
Sea and as a consequence the commodities originating from Russia, which during these
periods of human history were the main food supply of Europe.
Cyprus and Egypt always have been great strategic and economic centers of the Eastern
Mediterranean. Cyprus’ geographic location makes it a fantastic trade center and also
enables it to be an exceptional naval base through which its controller can exert control and
influence in the regional sea trade routes. On the other hand, Egypt has been a major
producer of food for the region and this always resulted in being considered a very
important territory for those who controlled it. The Eastern Roman Empire was extremely
dependent for its food supply from Egypt and Syria. Egypt alone was estimated to generate
over one third of the revenue of the Empire during the 6th century A.D.11
Egypt’s importance was significantly augmented when on November 17th 1869 the Suez
Canal was made operational and open for navigation. The Suez Canal is considered to be the
shortest link between the east and the west due to its unique geographic location; it is an
important international navigation canal linking between the Mediterranean Sea at Port Said
and the Red Sea at Suez.12 Ever since the British Government purchased the 44% of the
company that operated the Canal from Pasha Said, the Canal became a vital part of Britain’s
strategy in maintaining its maritime power and colonial interests. The strategic importance
of the canal and by extension of Egypt itself for the British Empire is evident, especially when
someone considers the efforts and the lives spent during the 2nd World War in order to
prevent Field Marshal Erwin Rommel from capturing Egypt and the Suez Canal.
We can understand that the role of the Eastern Mediterranean during the ancient times and
till the first decades of the 20th century has been very important, as it was the region that
gave birth to sciences, religions, cultures and great civilizations that shaped the western
societies and the European States System that dominated the international politics until the
11 H. Papasotiriou, ”Grand Strategy of Byzantium 6th-11th century A.D. ”, Poiotita Publications, 2007. 12 ”Importance of the Canal”, Suez Canal Authority, Retrieved 05 August, 2013, from http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/sc.aspx?show=10 .
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
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early 20th century.13 In the following part of this paper, we will see the role of the region
nowadays and examine its role in the contemporary international system.
The East Mediterranean today
Nowadays, the Eastern Mediterranean has been playing an integral role to the international
system as it holds a major role in international peace and security, because of its economic
importance -as a major sea trade route for the European Union and other regional
stakeholders-. Additionally, it is located adjacently to the Middle East and North Africa, two
of the most turbulent and unstable regions in the world today, this results in a substantially
enhanced role in the maintenance of international peace and security.
From a geopolitical perspective the eastern basin of the Mediterranean is the closest access
point, for the heartland power, to hot waters and the open sea14. Until the end of the
Crimean War in 1856, Russia was constantly seeking to gain access to this area in order to
combat its inherent inability to access the open sea and actively pursue the development of
maritime trade and military capabilities.
The Eastern Mediterranean always played a pivotal role in resource production and
transportation, whether that was Egyptian and Hyper-Caucasian grain or Phoenician lumber
and glass or Greek bauxite or iron or gold or oil and natural gas. Since the end of the Second
World War, for almost 70 years, the Middle East and North Africa regions have been the
scenery of several other conflicts - mainly the Arab-Israeli wars, the Gulf Wars, Afghanistan
and the latest Arab Uprisings with Libya, Syria and Egypt included.
If we wish to achieve a basic understanding of the region nowadays, we must briefly take
under consideration five subjects, which will facilitate our comprehension of the shifting
dynamics of the region. Those five subjects are: the continuous and increasing presence of
foreign military in the region, the Hellenic-Turkish rivalry including the issue of Cyprus, the
Arab-Israeli conflicts, the economic crisis, the Arab Uprisings and the role of the European
Union as a regional actor.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, there are several foreign military facilities including several
US Air Force and Naval facilities in Italy, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria and Israel, two UK military
facilities in Cyprus and the Russian Naval facility in the port of Tartus in Syria, which is the
last Russian military facility outside the Former Soviet Union15. Additionally it can be said
that People’s Republic of China has increased interests in the port of Piraeus, which
13 Adam Watson, “The Evolution of International Society. A comparative Historical Analysis”, London, Routledge, 1992, p.480 14 C.Koliopoulos, Grand Strategy of Ancient Sparta 750-192 B.C., Athens, Piotita publications, 2007, p.25. 15 Andrew E. Kramer, "Russia Sending Warships on Maneuvers Near Syria", The New York Times, Retrieved 22 August 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/middleeast/russia-sends-warships-on-maneuvers-near-syria.html?_r=0.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
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functions as its main trade port for its ever-increasing exports towards the European Union
and its Member States.
Alongside with the heavy presence of overseas military facilities in the region, exists an
increasing number of warships in the region. Ever since the end of the 2nd World War the
Mediterranean Basin has been home to the 6th US Navy Fleet16 - as the Mediterranean has
always 17been seen as a “highway” for the projection of US power “deep into the heart of
the landmass of Eurasia and Africa”- , while almost 14 months ago Russian President
Vladimir Putin announced plans to recreate on a permanent basis the Russian Navy Fleet in
the Mediterranean in a bid to protect and advance national interests and security18. This
move was a follow-up of Russian Government’s previous decision on July 2012 to dispatch
11 warships to the region, a move which was seen as an attempt to support the Syrian
Government of Bashar Al-Assad in its internal struggle with opposition fighters and to deter
any potential intervention from other regional actors19.
The Hellenic-Turkish Rivalry can be traced back to the early Medieval Ages, when the Turks
started capturing and occupying provinces of the Byzantine Empire and finally annexed it
with the fall of Constantinople on 1453 A.D. and founded the Ottoman Empire, which
expanded so much that it controlled the whole Eastern Mediterranean and even more, since
at its peak it possessed provinces near Central Europe. After almost 400 years of occupation
and several failed rebellions, the Hellenic population successfully took arms on 1821 and
after almost 10 years of war, it was proclaimed an independent state. The newly founded
Greece has ever since been in a rivalry with Ottoman Empire, and its successor Turkey,
which several times dragged the two nations into conflict, culminating in the events of 1974,
where Turkey invaded the Republic of Cyprus and caused the military occupation of
approximately 36,3% of the island and installed a puppet state in the occupied territories,
which only Turkey itself recognizes as a legitimate state. Especially after the tragic events of
the summer of 1974, Greece and Turkey have been dragged into a continuous arms race,
with both countries investing billions of dollars in order to strengthen their military
capabilities. In addition to the historical rivalry and the situation in Cyprus, which is a direct
breach of the UN Charter, Turkey has raised several claims and disputes over the continental
self of the Aegean Archipelago, the territorial waters and air space, the Athens FIR, territorial
sovereignty of Greek Islands and the militarization of several islands of the Aegean, which
are supposed to be demilitarized according to the Lausanne treaty20. Nevertheless, despite
all these daunting obstacles there are several things that could bring the two countries
16 Thomas A. Bryson,”Tars, Turks, and Tankers: The Role of the United States Navy in the Middle East”, Scarecrow Press Inc., New Jersey and London, 1980, p.89-90. 17 US Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (1947) Admiral Forrest Sherman quoted in, Lloyd C Gardner, “Three Kings: The Rise of an American Empire in the Middle East after World War II.”, New York: The New Press, 2009. 18 Vladimir Isachenkov, Russian Navy to deploy Mediterranean fleet in bid to protect national security, Associated Press, June 6, 2013. 19 Andrew E. Kramer, "Russia Sending Warships on Maneuvers Near Syria", The New York Times, Retrieved 22 August 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/world/middleeast/russia-sends-warships-on-maneuvers-near-syria.html?_r=0. 20 For a better and more analytical understanding of Hellenic-Turkey relations see: A. Syrigos, 2012. In: Greece-Turkey Relations from Lausanne till today, notes from oral lecture.
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closer. Such things could be the several common points in the cultural tradition of each
country, mainly created due to the four centuries these people coexisted within the
Ottoman Empire; and the increased economic benefits that could be derived from a more
cooperative interaction between the two countries. Some obvious economic benefits could
be the decrease in military spending and the cooperation in tourism, trade, energy
production and transit.
The Arab-Israeli conflict is one of the most prominent and ever-lasting conflicts in the
world’s modern history accounting for almost 10 major conflicts and an even greater
number of smaller events.
There is a widely spread misconception that the struggles and the conflicts between the
Jews and the Arabs started at 29 November 1947 following Future Government of Palestine,
General Assembly Resolution 181 (II), which called for termination of the British mandate of
Palestine as it was established by the League of Nation in 1918, followed by the partition and
the establishment of two independent states, a Jewish and an Arab.
Actually the conflict originates some decades before 1947, starting from the 19th century
when Jewish people immigrate to Palestine to join the already existing Jewish communities
in the region. Later, in 1918 following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire -as a result of the
1st World War and the rise of the Neo-Turks of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who created the first
Republic of Turkey in 192321- Palestine was placed under the mandate of Great Britain by
the League of Nations. Great Britain, and France as well, who historically has proved to be a
very ardent supporter of the Divide and Rule theory (see Afghanistan, Egypt, Cyprus, Indian
subcontinent, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Africa), gave both Jews and Palestinians
conflicting promises of independence (Balfour declaration of 1917) 22. This led to the
development of nationalistic ambitions and caused persistent rivalry between the two
people, which several times escalated to violent actions against each other.
Nowadays, the Arab-Israeli conflict is showing no signs of abating -despite the efforts of the
US Secretary of State John Kerry to conclude cohesive and constructive peace talks between
Israel and the Palestinian Authority23- while the Iranian nuclear crisis is destabilizing not only
the whole region, but is also causing confrontation between leading out of area players24.
21 Syrigos, A., 2012. In: Greece-Turkey Relations from Lausanne till today, notes from oral lecture. 22 Jack Straw, former Foreign Secretary of United Kingdom made some very bold and enlightening statements on the topic in 2002, affirming several major mistakes and misconducts on behalf of Great Britain during the colonial era. J. Kampfner, 2002. NS Interview - Jack Straw. New Statesman, from http://www.newstatesman.com/node/144241 . 2323 Mathew Lee, “Israel-Palestine Peace Talks To Start Monday Following Months Of John Kerry Diplomacy”, Huffington Post, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/28/israel-palestine-peace-talks-kerry_n_3667962.html. “Israelis and Palestinians resume peace talks at dinner hosted by John Kerry”, The Telegraph, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/10210235/Israelis-and-Palestinians-resume-peace-talks-at-dinner-hosted-by-John-Kerry.html . 24 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.1.
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The Eastern Mediterranean has always been a region of countries with relatively mid to
small scale economies, with Greece, Egypt, Israel and Turkey being the biggest ones, with a,
average annual GDP approximately at $250 billion for the three first and $794 billion for
Turkey, while the rest of the countries average an annual GDP of approximately $40 billion
each25. Currently, most of the region is already in a deep monetary and economic crisis,
while there are fears, those other flourishing economies in the region, like Turkey26, might
be heading towards the same downward spiral.
Economy is a very crucial factor when it comes to defining the power and influence of every
sovereign actor in international politics. Since the region is stricken by recession, the balance
of power in the region is steadily shifting, in favor of actors that are still not affected by the
crisis. Additionally, countries, which have already been suffering from the crisis, are
becoming more and more prone to internal unrest and tensions, due to the severe and
unjust effects of austerity measures, which inflict disproportional weight onto the
population. Internal unrests and tensions can lead to unprecedented changes in the internal
politics of regional actors and lead to a further destabilization of the already fragile balance
of powers in the area of the Eastern Mediterranean. However, regional economic stagnation
can only be halted and dealt with by imaginative and adventurous projects that will be bring
several regional and non-regional actors together in order to work and cooperate with sole
purpose the mutual benefit and growth. The fields of tourism, trade and the exploitation
and transit of oil and gas are areas with vast potential for cooperation.
As we discussed above, financial problems within a country can lead to internal unrest with
severe future repercussions. Such was the case for several prominent countries of the Arab
world, when the economic disparities and injustices led the people to the streets. In
December 2010, a young Tunisian, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire after police
confiscated his unlicensed cart and wares. This desperate act of rebellion sparked a wave of
unrest across the Arab world27. In January 2011, Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali,
tried to appease demonstrators with pledges of reform, but was forced to flee Tunis for
Saudi Arabia after 23 years in power. After Tunisia, unrest and protests spread to Egypt28.
As protests spread to and across Egypt, demonstrators in Cairo took control of central Tahrir
Square. President Hosni Mubarak, who at first refused to quit, he finally agreed to step aside
on 12 February, after protesters marched on the Presidential Palace. The Egyptian revolution
25 C.I.A., “The World Factbook”, from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html . 26 Thomas Jr. Landon, “Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey”, The New York Times, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/europe/financial-fears-as-street-unrest-shakes-turkey.html?pagewanted=all. Hugo Dixon, “Turkey’s economy is vulnerable”, Reuters, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://blogs.reuters.com/hugo-dixon/2013/06/17/turkeys-economy-is-vulnerable/ . Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, “Turkey protests reveal fault-lines in economic success”, BBC, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22778768 . 27 Jeremy Bowen, “Arab Uprisings: 10 Key Moements”, BBC, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20626645 . 28 Ibid.
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went on to inspire uprisings in Yemen, Bahrain and Libya, and the following month, in
Syria29.
After several months of bloodshed between the Libyan Army and Opposition forces, on 17
March 2011, in New York, the UN Security Council passed resolution 1973. Its key passage
authorized member states "to take all necessary measures" to protect civilians in Libya. The
resolution was given the broadest possible interpretation by NATO members, especially
France, Britain and the US, who imposed a non-fly zone over Libya and proceeded with the
destruction of several military facilities in the country. Within days, Colonel Muammar
Gaddafi's forces near Benghazi were under attack and Tripoli itself was being bombed. Col
Gaddafi had sworn he would hunt down rebel "rats" from house to house, alleyway to
alleyway. However, resolution 1973 turned into a death warrant for himself and his
regime30.
A few days after the vote of UNSC Res.1973, protests took place in Syria and President
Bashar Al-Assad, on 30 Match 2011, vowed to disperse the “terrorists”, which were part of a
foreign conspiracy against his legitimate government. For over two years, Syria is ravaged by
a never-ending civil war, which has cost the lives of over 100.000 people and forced millions
to take refuge in neighboring countries31. The United Nations Security Council has been in a
stalemate, since Russia and China have vetoed against resolutions which intended to assist
the opposition forces in Syria.
The situation in Syria, except from a costly internal conflict is threatening to become a
regional destabilizing event, since Iran is supporting the regime of Bashar Al-Assad and in the
meantime continues to provide sophisticated weapon systems to Hezbollah through Syrian
territory. Hezbollah is considered as a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States of
America and the EU. Israel is extremely disturbed over the continuous supply of
sophisticated game changing weapon systems to Hezbollah and has reportedly executed two
airstrikes inside Syrian territory targeting weapons being delivered to Hezbollah32. Recent
events, on August 22nd 2013, indicate that Israeli operations against the supply lines of
Hezbollah in Syria might have not been as effective as they were believed, because missiles,
controlled by Hezbollah were fired from Lebanon against Israel. Luckily for the civilian
population of Israel the Iron Dome –Israel’s Anti-Missile Defensive Weapon System─ shot
down the inbound missiles33. Israeli civilians are accustomed to the terror from the skies,
29 Ibid. 30 Ibid. 31 Ed Payne, Greg Botelho and Mohammed Tawfeeq, “Opposition presses for weapons as Syria death toll tops 100,000”, CNN, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/26/world/meast/syria-violence/?iref=obinsite . 32 Dominic Evans and Oliver Holmes, “Israel strikes Syria, says targeting Hezbollah arms”, Reuters, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-blasts-idUSBRE94400020130505 . Avi Issacharoff, “Israel scratching its head after US officials (again) leak Syria strike”, The Times of Israel, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-scratches-its-head-after-us-officials-leak-syria-strike/ . 33 Isabel Kershner, “Rockets Are Fired Toward Israel From Southern Lebanon”, The New York Times, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/world/middleeast/rockets-fired-from-lebanon-toward-israel.html?_r=0 .
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since they have been subjects of frequent rocket attacks from Gaza Strip and Lebanon for
the last years.
While the civil war rages in Syria, the international community is unable to agree on how to
achieve a cessation of violence with USA and Russian being at odds over the matter. The
United States are said to be preparing missile strikes in Syria, after videos were released into
the Internet, showing victims of chemical weapon attacks. Russia and China urged the US to
refrain from interfering in the Syrian civil war, while Iran has threatened the US that any
strikes against Syria will lead to asymmetric retaliatory responses towards its allies in the
region.
Meanwhile, after one year of military transitional governance in Egypt, Mohammed Morsi
became the first freely elected President on 24 June 2012. After one year in office, Morsi did
not cope well with the huge political and economic challenges, which he inherited as the
new leader of Egypt and several protests took place again in the famous Tahrir Square and
President Morsi was overthrown by the Egyptian Army after an ultimatum34. Following this
atypical military coup in Egypt the Egyptian Army took over installing an interim government
and started to rage a relentless crackdown on prominent members of the Muslim
Brotherhood and on the protesters that have been on the streets, after the atypical military
coup of July 3rd 2013, with over 400 people being reportedly killed35.
It is very easy to realize that groundbreaking events have been taking place in the region the
last years, from the discovery of significant gas and oil reserves in the Eastern
Mediterranean basin and the economic crisis to the Arab Uprisings. Major stakeholders are
competing for a redistribution of power and influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The
United States, and in its wake Israel, has been the regional key player since the end of the
2nd World War. The EU as such is not acting as a major stakeholder, but some of its members
such as the United Kingdom and France have been involved in the area for decades, if not
centuries.36 Moreover, EU members Greece and Cyprus are part of the region. Russian
Federation, on the other hand, is attempting a comeback, having abandoned the
Mediterranean two decades ago after the implosion of the Soviet Union. Turkey is also
staging a return as an independent player after nearly a century since the fall of the
Ottoman Empire.37
Conversely to a comparatively comprehensive approach by other stakeholders, the EU lacks
a grand strategy and it does not have an overarching strategy or an efficient political project
34 “Possible Military Coup in Egypt”, STRATFOR, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/possible-military-coup-egypt?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130703&utm_term=RedAlert&utm_content=readmore&elq=69e54b26bf4e4018b9116ba27f7c57d2 . 35 Tom Perry and Alexander Dziadosz, “Around 250 bodies held at Cairo mosque after violence”, Reuters, Retrieved 22/08/2013 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-egypt-protests-bodies-idUSBRE97E0CY20130815 . 36 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.1. 37 Ibid.
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for the region. The Barcelona Process and the Union for the Mediterranean failed to achieve
their goals and the Euro-Mediterranean multilateralism never got off the ground.38
The European Union is still the world’s largest economy and it would be unwise to
underestimate its influence in the region. However, especially due to the economic crisis,
the EU seems to be in retreat in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the wake of the Arab
“Spring”, probably the most earthshaking chain of events of the 21st century, the EU is
standing by dazzled, frightened and introvert. Obviously, the “EU’s unipolar moment of the
1990’s has come to an end”39, however this does not mean that the EU should be in the
retreat. United through its diversity, the European Union could effectively field an open-
minded, alluring and realistic diplomacy in order to bid a strong candidacy for the position of
the key regional stakeholder.
Eastern Mediterranean, especially after the recently discovered hydrocarbon resource
reserves, could be an important supplementing energy provider for the ever-increasing
energy need of the EU. A strategic investment in the area, which would include the
facilitation of the dispute management and the acceleration of the necessary process of
resource exploitation and transit, could lessen the overdependence of Europe from Russian
gas and oil.
European analysts should cease to approach a potential exit of Greece from the EU solely
under the scope of the financial and economic ramifications, but they should also take into
consideration the geopolitical consequences of a Grexit40. Greece lies on the geostrategic
crossroads between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and between Europe and Middle
East, a region of considerable instability. Greece’s location is likely to establish it as a
significant transit route for gas and oil from Russia, the Caspian and the newly discovered
energy sources in the Eastern Mediterranean41.
Moreover, Greece has been instrumental for the EU and NATO in numerous foreign policy
areas and in key issues such as energy security and immigration. Also, Greece always
enjoyed good relations with the Arab world and the Levant.42 However, the economic crisis
has dealt a serious blow to Greece’s standing in the region.
Before concluding on the thematic of “The Eastern Mediterranean Today” and proceed to
examine the contribution of the region in Energy Security, it feels unwise not to mention a
38Kristina Kausch, “Can the Crisis Unlock Euro-Mediterranean Relations?”, FRIDE Policy Brief no. 139, 2012, from http://www.fride.org/publication/1079/can-the-crisis-unlock-euro-mediterranean-relations . 39 Javier Solana, “A Europe for the World.”, Project Syndicate, 2012 from http://www.project-
syndicate.org/commentary/europe-s-global-leadership-by-javier-solana. 40 Walter Russel, “The Geopolitics of Greece’s Exit from the Euro.”, The American Interest, 2012 from
http://blogs.theamerican-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/17/the-geopolitics-of-greeces-exit-from-the-euro/ . 41 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.2. 42 Theodore Couloumbis, Thanos Dokos, Dimitris Katsikas, and Dimitris Sotiopoulos , “On the Brink. Greece and the European Financial Crisis.” In Europe in Trouble. Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Financial Crisis, Mediterranean Series 2012, The German Marshall Fund of the United States - Instituto Affari Internazionali, 2012, p.27–38.
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few concerns over potential friction or additional tensions between some of the most
prominent local stakeholders. I strongly believe that expressing these thoughts at this point
will be very beneficial in our efforts to examine some of the decisions and actions that are
being taken by the regional actors.
The Hellenic-Turkish rivalry has been an ever-present friction point for almost 200 years,
while things only got worse after the Turkish invasion in Cyprus on 1974.
Greece traditionally has enjoyed close relations with the Arab world; however since 2010
the Greek Prime minister George A. Papandreou opted to pursue closer bilateral relations
with Israel. Nowadays Greece, Cyprus and Israel are actively forming up a close partnership
in several sectors, which include energy resources exploitation and export, trade, education,
intelligence, security and defense. During the last years Greece and Israel have taken part in
joint military exercises. In the military exercise called “Noble Dina”, which took place from
26th March to the 5th of April 2012, navies and air forces from Greece, Israel and the United
States of America participated. The exercise took place after Greece. Israel and Cyprus
signed an energy agreement, while earlier during 2011 Greece and Israel signed a defense
agreement, upgrading their defense and military collaboration43.
This realignment between Greece, Cyprus and Israel didn’t come out of the blue. Earlier in
2010, after the incident with the Gaza Freedom Flotilla and the boarding of the Mavi
Marmara, Turkey downgraded its relations with Israel. But just as nature abhors a vacuum,
so does geopolitics. Israel, Greece and Cyprus have drawn closer in an unprecedented
political, military and energy relationship.
After three years, with President Barak Obama himself acting as a broker, PM Benjamin
Netanyahu telephoned his Turkish counterpart PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan and apologized for
the Mavi Marmara incident44. However, after only four months the Turkish Prime Minister
stoked again the rivalry between the two states blaming Israel for the atypical military coup
and instability in Egypt45.
Turkey for the last decade is actively pursuing to reorient itself as regional independent
power, seeking to become the leader of the shifting Arab world. This pursuit is shattering the
existing geopolitical balances and is already alienating several officials in the other side of
the Atlantic. Turkey’s rapid emergence and its gradual detachment from the United States is
43 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT–Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.3. Seth Cropsey, “Will U.S. Choose the Right Side in the Eastern Mediterranean?”, Hudson Institute, 2013, Retrieved 20/07/2013 from http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659 . 44 Jodi Rudoren and Mark Landler, “With Obama as Broker, Israelis and Turkey End Dispute”, The New York Times, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/world/middleeast/president-obama-israel.html?pagewanted=all . 45 Associated Press, “Turkey’s Erdogan says Israel behind Egyptian leader’s ouster; Egyptian Cabinet slams claim”, Washington Post, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-erdogan-says-israel-behind-egyptian-leaders-ouster-says-has-evidence-to-prove-it/2013/08/20/9da8d9b8-0984-11e3-89fe-abb4a5067014_story.html .
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threatening its neighbors but it may also threaten the very future and success of its project.
Its “zero problems with neighbors” policy has turned into a zero friends policy and has lost
its leverage everywhere, as it is cleverly argued by Piotr Zalewski46.
In an international system reigned by anarchy, international actors should be cautious and
study previous examples during the course of history, which depict how rapidly emerging
powers have forced others against them and doomed their future, if they wish to avoid the
same fate.
Evidently, as politics and alliances in the eastern Mediterranean shift, the region's security
framework is splintering. In the following pages we will discuss the contribution of the
Eastern Mediterranean in Energy Security.
46 Piotr Zalewski, “How Turkey Went From 'Zero Problems' to Zero Friends”, Foreign Policy, Retrieved 23/08/2013 from
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/21/how_turkey_foreign_policy_went_from_zero_problems_to_zero_friends?page=0,1 .
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The contribution of the East Mediterranean in
Energy security
In the subsequent part of this paper, we will examine how the Eastern Mediterranean
contributes in Energy Security. However, it would be advisable before proceeding with
examining the profiles of the regional countries, which are producing or potentially can
produce energy resources; the ways via which energy can be transited through the region;
the contribution of the region to EU’s energy security; and several concerns, we should
analyze the involvement in the regional energy pivot from the three major global actors –the
United States, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China-. Later on, I would
like offer a more expanded interpretation of the term “energy resources” and elaborate on
the implications of this expanded interpretation.
The United States foreign policy has experienced a major reorientation during President’s
Obama first term in office. The President himself, along with the then Secretary of State H.
Clinton turned their focus the Asia-Pacific region, with visits and meetings with leaders from
several countries in the region starting to slowly and steadily building closer relations with
the countries of the region, in an apparent attempt to contain the rising China.
Much is being made of the so-called American strategic Asia-Pacific pivot, recognizing that
the dominant issues of the 21st century will be decided in the Asia-Pacific. As a result some
analysts see this as an American disengagement from the Mediterranean. Indeed, according
to former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, the pivot strategy will rebalance American
naval assets between the Pacific and the Atlantic from today’s roughly 50/50 split to 60/40
by 202047. However, the strategic guidance issued by the Obama administration in January
2012, identifies “the primary loci of these threats are South Asia and the Middle East”. It
continues to state “to support these objectives [in the Middle East], the United States will
continue to place a premium on U.S. and allied military presence in – and support of –
partner nations in and around this region”48. Moreover, access to Central Asia remains
important in American policy toward China. Therefore, it seems improbable that American
interest in the region will be winding down in the near or medium future49, especially if we
take under consideration the heavy involvement of the US in region and the existence of
significant interests for several major US allies.
The United States has welcomed the discovery of gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean
over the past decade as these resources hold the potential to bolster the energy security of
Israel, Cyprus, and Europe as a whole and reduce, to some degree, the European Union’s
dependence on Russian gas exports. Moreover, the United States of America is deeply
47 Jane Perlez, “Panetta Outlines New Weaponry for Pacific.”, New York Times - Asia-Pacific, June 1, 2012. 48 “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense.”, U.S. Department of
Defense, January 2012, p.1- 2 49 Patrick Nopens, “Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean”, EGMONT–Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels, 2013, p.3-4.
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involved in the exploitation of gas and oil in the Eastern Mediterranean, as the leading
offshore drilling contractor in the region is the Noble Corporation, an American company
with substantial Israeli interests. The prospect of new energy sources is particularly
encouraging at a time when the EU is struggling with the sovereign debt crisis to which
Greece and Cyprus are particularly exposed. At the same time, the United States would like
the door to remain open to Turkey’s future involvement when political circumstances
permit. Meanwhile the United States seeks to avoid the escalation of tensions in the region.
A number of U.S. strategic and commercial interests are at stake in the development of
these newly discovered resources50.
U.S. strategy in the region was for years based on common interests among America, Israel
and Turkey. Islamist Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 2002 ascension as Turkish prime minister has
put strains into the strategy. Erdogan's policy has deliberately ended good relations between
Ankara and Jerusalem. This was not an isolated incident. It was the result of a profound
change in the Turkish government's direction under an Islamist ruler who as of this writing
has blamed "foreigners" for the growing protests that demonstrate Turkish citizens'
dissatisfaction with an increasingly repressive regime. It was the strategy of a politician who
has emerged from what was once a secular state to use the Gaza incident as part of a broad
Islamist enterprise to reorient Turkey toward the East and return the nation to the vision of
its past Ottoman imperial rulers51.
The region's drift toward fundamentalism creates an incentive for America to move closer to
Israel, Cyprus and Greece. The U.S. has been interested in a stable Mediterranean since the
early 19th century wars against the Barbary pirates who, as Ottoman puppets, preyed on
American and European shipping. Turkey's growing political aspirations and economic clout
are recapitulating its old dreams of regional influence that directly oppose NATO's interest in
a calm south and southeastern flank. The U.S. and Turkey have become rival powers in the
Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. However, President Obama does not recognize this:
His visit to Turkey took place less than four months after his first inauguration in 2009, and
underlines the esteem in which he holds Erdogan. This esteem is misplaced. Turkey's return
to an imperial and fundamentalist policy supported tacitly by the U.S. is changing the
region's strategic balance, as it creates dilemmas that will outlive the current U.S.
administration52.
Since 1769, Russia has remained an active player in the Eastern Mediterranean except for
short intervals due to external causes. After the American intervention in Lebanon in 1958,
the Soviet Union deployed a forward Mediterranean Squadron of the Black Sea Fleet and
obtained some naval facilities in Arab countries. Although it never was able to challenge the
US 6th Fleet, during the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War, this presence signaled a
strong Soviet commitment to their Arab allies. When the Soviet Navy had to abandon its
bases in Egypt in 1977, the Syrian port of Tartus became the main Soviet support base in the
50 Jeffrey Mankoff, “Resource Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The View from Washington”, The German Marshall Fund of The United States, Washington,2012, p.1. 51 Seth Cropsey, “Will U.S. Choose the Right Side in the Eastern Mediterranean?”, Hudson Institute, 2013, Retrieved 20/07/2013 from http://mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=9659 . 52 Ibid.
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Mediterranean. In 1991, the Mediterranean Squadron ceased to exist, but since 2007, the
Russian Fleet again regularly sends small task forces into the Mediterranean. Tartus is the
only remaining Russian naval facility outside the former Soviet Union. It only consists of one
floating dock in working order and some other support facilities, most of them in disrepair.
However, according to the Commander of the Russian Fleet Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov,
“the base is vital for us; it worked, and will continue to act”53.
Although Russia has been marginalized in the Mediterranean for the last two decades and its
military presence is still negligible today, it is staging a comeback. Russia’s main goal is to
recover its influence in a region that is rapidly gaining importance because of both its energy
reserves and key strategic position. Russia is systematically pursuing a policy of economic
and geostrategic penetration, in particular in Greece and Cyprus, and of containing Turkey’s
ascent. It is also making overtures to Egypt and Iraq, and continues supporting Syria and
Iran. Finally, relations with Israel are improving, culminating in a deal with Gazprom in July
2012 on gas extraction54. In short, in the long run and in the broader region of the Middle
East, Russia seems intent on changing the regional order, diminishing US predominance,
limiting an increase of Turkey’s and the EU’s influence, and reclaiming its former status in a
renewed geopolitical context55.
The Greek-Cypriot financial crisis and the growing energy interests in the Eastern
Mediterranean are providing Russia with new opportunities to restore its influence.
Therefore, the EU should be aware that approaching the Greek and Cypriot sovereign debt
crisis exclusively in the light of financial criteria opens the door to Russia enhancing its
influence in both these members of the Union. In 2011, Russia granted Cyprus a loan of €2.5
billion. In 2012, Nicosia requested a second loan that could amount to €5 billion. This
financial support is not only aimed at securing the vast sums of money Russian oligarchs
have deposited in Cypriot banks56. It is also linked to demands for a key role in the
development of Cyprus’ prospective energy boom.
Indeed, Russia’s energy policy is aimed at blocking any alternative to its control over
Europe’s gas supplies. This not only implies attempting to monopolize the infrastructure that
delivers gas from the Caspian and Central Asia to Europe, but also obtaining a key role in the
exploitation of energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean.
53 Frank Gardner, “How vital is Syria's Tartus port to Russia?”, BBC, 2012, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18616191 . 54 For an extensive analysis of Russia’s policy in the region, see: Andreas Stergiou, “Russian Policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Implications for EU External Action.”, EU Institute of Security Studies, 2012. http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/russian-policy-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-and-the-implications-for-eu-external-action/. 55 For cumulative evidence supporting Russian intentions changing the geopolitical reality in the Middle East, see: Zvi Magen, “The Empire Strikes Back?”, INSS Insight No. 381, 2012, Retrieved 20/08/2013 from http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10449 56 Markus Dettmer and Christian Reiermann, “Bailing Out Oligarchs: EU Aid for Cyprus A Political Minefield for Merkel”, Der Spiegel, 2012, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-intelligence-report-warns-cyprus-not-combating-money-laundering-a-865451.html .
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Gazprom, Neguzneft and the Sintez Group were interested in participating in the
privatization of the Greek gas supplier DEPA and the natural gas transmission network
operator DESFA57 -earlier in February 2013; Russia signed a deal with Israel to market its
liquefied natural gas, a deal which has placed Moscow in a firm position in the burgeoning
eastern Mediterranean energy sector58-. However, the Russian companies withdrew their
offers, stating they didn’t not receive enough assurances59, amidst reports that pressure
from Brussels led to the breakdown in the deal60. If the deal has been agreed, it would not
only have strengthened Russian influence in Greece, but it would also have given Russia a
say in Greece’s pipeline system that will transport gas from the Caspian and Central Asia to
the Adriatic for further distribution to Italy and beyond.
However, energy is not the only link between Russia and Greece. Western Europeans rarely
acknowledge that the Russian-Greek connection goes far deeper than energy politics alone.
Russia has traditionally been the custodian of Orthodox Christianity and has supported its
co-religionists in their struggle for independence from the Ottoman Empire. After all,
Russians consider Moscow the Third Rome since the fall of Constantinople, and Russia the
continuation of Byzantine religion and culture61.
Enhancing its influence in Greece and Cyprus also strengthens Russia’s position vis-à-vis
Turkey. It not only makes it more difficult for Turkey to coerce Cyprus, it also undermines
Turkey’s plans to take part in the exploitation of Cypriot energy assets. Moreover, it
strengthens Russia’s bargaining position towards Turkey in their bilateral energy dealings
threatening to undermine Turkey’s ambition as an energy hub. Finally, Cyprus lies across the
approaches to most of Turkey’s Mediterranean ports, which should not only concern Turkey,
but also the United States and even NATO as a whole62.
A final area of contention with Turkey is Russia’s reluctance to act against the repression by
Assad in Syria. Most analysts mention the arms trade and the naval base of Tartus as the
main reasons for Russia’s support for Assad. However, fear of popular revolt in Russia and
nostalgia for its former status as a superpower seem a more feasible explanation. Russia
risks losing all its influence in Syria if the Assad regime collapses. Yet if Syria falls apart,
57 “Gazprom May Buy Gas Company DEPA from Cash Hungry Greece.” Russia Today, 2012, Retrieved
23/08/2013 from http://rt.com/business/news/gazprom-depa-greece-crisis-127/ . 58 “Gazprom makes deal for Israeli LNG”and “Russia muscles in on East Med gas boom”, United Press International, 2013, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/02/27/Gazprom-makes-deal-for-Israeli-LNG/UPI-80191361966184/?rel=44571362763502 and http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/03/08/Russia-muscles-in-on-East-Med-gas-boom/UPI-44571362763502/ . 59 “Gazprom: We are not going to leave from the Greek market.”, Epikaira.gr, 2013. Retrieved 20/6/2013 from http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=60893&category_id=89 . 60 Aggeliki Dimopoulou, “Interview with Prof. C. Filis: Why Gazprom Backed off?”, tvxs.gr, 2013, Retrieved 12/06/2013 from http://tvxs.gr/news/ελλάδα/γιατί-έκανε-πίσω-η-gazprom . 61 Walter Russel, “The Geopolitics of Greece’s Exit from the Euro.”, The American Interest, 2012 from
http://blogs.theamerican-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/17/the-geopolitics-of-greeces-exit-from-the-euro/ . 62 Younkyoo Kim and Stephen Blank, “Russo-Turkish Divergence Part I: The Security Dimension”, 2012.
Retrieved 23/08/2013 from http://www.gloria-center.org/2012/04/russo-turkish-divergence-part-i-the-security-dimension/ .
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Russia can hope to retain its influence in the Allawite entity strategically situated along the
Mediterranean coastline.
While the United States of America have been executing their pivot in Asia-Pacific region,
China taking advantage of the turmoil in the region has been steadily asserting its influence
in the Eastern Mediterranean. China has been focused on ameliorating its diplomatic ties
with countries geo-strategically located around the Four Seas –the Caspian Sea, Black Sea,
Mediterranean Sea, and Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf- exploiting their problematic relations
with the West. As Christina Y. Lin notes “Paradoxically, the U.S. eastward pivot is matched by
the resurgent Middle Kingdom’s westward pivot across its new Silk Road, and threatens to
outflank the citadel of American geo-strategies in the region.”63
One of the major reasons behind China’s latest interest in aligning itself with local actors in
the Eastern Mediterranean is energy security64. In 1993 China became a net importer of
energy resources and since then has adopted an extrovert policy in its efforts to procure the
energy resources, which are essential to the sustenance of its growing economy. It is worth
noting that China’s internal political stability is deeply entwined with its continuous
economic growth.65
Additionally, China feels obliged to secure diverse energy supply lines, as it is worried by the
US supremacy in sea, which could choke China and cut it off from it energy supply lines and
Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCS).66 Except from the United States, who are seen by
China as their main international adversary, India is developing significant naval capabilities,
which in turn could also be dangerous.
China aims to develop alternative energy supply lines through central Asia, constructing a
modern grid of overland pipelines, roads and railways, in order to circumvent naval
chokepoints and minimize the effects of naval blockades and embargoes.67 This new Chinese
strategy is called by many analysts “The New Silk Road Strategy”.
China is deploying a combination of political, economic and military tools to further its
strategy.68 The economic tools include constructing infrastructure projects throughout the
central Asia and strengthening its trade relations with countries in the region –China is now
the biggest trade partner of the EU. Moreover, China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company, a
government-owned company by the P.R.China has heavily invested in the Greek Port of
63 Christina Y. Lin, “China’s strategic shift toward the region of the four seas: the Middle Kingdom arrives in the Middle East”, Gloria Center, 2013 http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/ . 64 For a background overview of China’s energy interests in the region, see Christina Y. Lin, “The New Silk Road: China’s Energy Strategy in the Greater Middle East,” Policy Focus #109, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011. 65 Harry Papasotiriou, “China from the Heavenly Empire to the Rising Superpower of the 21st century”, Athens, Poiotita Publications, 2013, p.348-358. 66 Harry Papasotiriou, “China from the Heavenly Empire to the Rising Superpower of the 21st century”, Athens, Poiotita Publications, 2013, p.364. 67 Ibid. 68 Christina Y. Lin, “China’s strategic shift toward the region of the four seas: the Middle Kingdom arrives in the Middle East”, Gloria Center, 2013 http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/chinas-strategic-shift-toward-the-region-of-the-four-seas-the-middle-kingdom-arrives-in-the-middle-east/.
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Piraeus -the biggest port in Greece-, which nowadays functions as the major facility for
Chinese exports to the EU. Around the Mediterranean Chinese companies have acquired
stakes in shipping and logistics companies, as well as sea ports, airports and fiber optic
networks, in countries such as Spain, France, Portugal, Italy, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt.
Chinese companies showed interest in acquiring exploration and exploitation licenses for the
newly discovered Cypriot gas fields69.
Furthermore, China is using its position as a permanent member of the UNSC in order to
exert political influence to the countries in the region of Eastern Mediterranean. One of the
most typical examples can be found in China’s stance towards the Syrian civil war and Iran’s
nuclear program.
China’s rise has been materialized in an extensive overhaul of its military capabilities, which
huge investments in air and sea. China is slowly, but steadily starting to assert its military
presence further and further away from its turbulent neighborhood, changing its naval
strategy from “coastal defense to far sea defense”70.
Indeed, Chinese naval vessels have embarked on active diplomacy in the far seas. Chinese
Navy has conducted regular port calls and “shows of flags” in the Gulf of Aden–where it
conducts anti-piracy missions–as well as in the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea–where
China has acquired various seaports in the littorals by helping to bail out the Eurozone. In
July and August of 2012, Chinese warships passed through the Suez Canal and entered the
Mediterranean Sea at the same time Russia dispatched its naval flotilla to Tartus in Syria.
Jonathan Holslag, in an August 2012 article in Global Times, asserted that the Mediterranean
needed to become accustomed to China’s naval presence71. By showing its flag west of the
Suez, China is signaling its interest as a trading nation in accessing sea-lanes, such as the
Strait of Hormuz, the Bosporus, and Gibraltar72.
So far, we have analyzed the motives and strategies of the three main international actors in
our contemporary international system, in the next paragraph I will try to deliver the
expanded interpretation of energy resources and security, I promised at the start of this part
of the paper.
Energy resources are the commodities, which through their consumption the most basic and
vital activities of our society are possible. These activities are transportation and
production. Every simple activity of a modern human being can be identified to originate
from several combinations of these two activities, from being able to work, eat, go on
vacations to wage wars or preserve peace. In this simple fact lies the great value and
importance of energy, because it is impossible for our modern world to function for a single
69 Xinhua, “Cyprus says China's state energy company interested in gas prospecting”, 2012, Retrieved 25/08/2013 from http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7747996.html . 70 Edward Wong, “Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power”, New York Times, 2010 Retrieved 20/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24navy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 . 71 Jonathan Holslag, “Naval Visits Accustom Mediterranean to New Role”, Global Times, 2012, Retrieved 20/08/2013 from http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/724645.shtml . 72 Ibid.
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minute, if an instance we had no oil or gas or coal. Cars, trucks, planes and ships would be all
immobilized. Armies would be unable to operate. Everything would be out of order.
Obviously, someone could argue that without oil, gas and the other modern energy
resources, we could return to pre-industrialization way of life. Of course, we could be able to
use horses, mules and oxen to help us in production and transportation and we could live in
our new society with our new way of life. By accepting this possible, although far-fetched
event where the whole world lives back in a 15th century society, it is clear that all this time,
we have been omitting maybe one of the most important and ever-present energy resource,
food. Since the Ancient times food has been the basic form of energy resource. Cavalry was
replaced by armored vehicles; galleys were replaced by ironclads and later on battleships
and destroyers; horses, mules and oxen where used in production and transportation are
now replaced by trucks and tractors. Probably in the future soldiers, who “run on” food, will
be replaced by robots –that’s something that is already being slowly done if you take in
consideration how drones are starting to replace manned aircraft.
The implication of the addition of food in the gambit of energy security might not be that
severe for western countries, but it could be a game-changer for the African continent.
Despite, the efforts of several countries and UN Agencies to combat poverty and famine,
millions of people still die. As we venture into the 21st century, the fear of having to make
war in order to survive (wars for food and water) is really high, especially for the countries of
the African continent. Policy makers and world leaders need to seriously consider this very
sad and dangerous possibility and make sure it never becomes a reality, because a normal
soldier has his limitations, a desperate hungry soldier, who fights in order to help his family
survive, has none.
So far, we have analyzed the strategies of the United States, Russian and China; and we saw
how food merits inclusion in the energy security gambit, especially for Africa. In the next
parts of this paper we will examine the energy production capabilities of the countries in the
region, the potential transit routes and methods of energy resources in the region, the
contribution of the Eastern Mediterranean in EU’s energy security and the existing
geopolitical, economic and environmental limitations and concerns.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
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The role of the area as a producer of energy resources
In this part of the research paper, we will analyze the energy identity of the wider area of
the Eastern Mediterranean as well as the energy profile of the coastal countries of the
region –based on the recent discoveries of natural gas reserves. Our aim will be to present
data that will help us understand the realities of the region in regards with the proved and
estimated quantities of natural gas, to the extent that it is possible by the available relevant
data. Defining the amount of resources available for exploitation in the region is
fundamental, if we are to examine if and how those resources can be exported and funneled
in the global energy market.
Nowadays, according to the latest discoveries, the Eastern Mediterranean can be split in
four basic areas of highly possible or proved existence of hydrocarbon resources.73 These
four areas are identified as the following: the Herodotus Basin, mainly south east of Crete,
south west of Cyprus and north of Egypt; the Levantine, which includes the maritime areas
between Cyprus, Israel, Turkey, Syria and Lebanon; the Nile Cone and the maritime area
south of Crete74.
75
Until now, the surveys that have taken place in the region of Eastern Mediterranean have
managed to prove the existence of approx. 105,9tcf (trillion cubic feet) of exploitable natural
gas. While, the existence of another 380,9tcf in the regions of the Nile Cone, the Levantine
and around Cyprus; is considered highly probable76.
73 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.18. 74 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.4. 75 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011. 76 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.27
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77
In the Greek part of the Herodotus Basin and the area south of Crete, although unproven –
especially due to the lack of justified or official surveys- it is highly probable that there are
significant hydrocarbon reserves, based on the geology of the region. The movements of the
tectonic plates of Africa and Europe, which cause methane emissions; and the several mud
volcanoes of the region increase the likeliness of significant hydrocarbon reserves to exist in
the region.78 Similar geological characteristics are common to the majority of the areas
around the world, which are rich in hydrocarbon reserves, such as the Caspian Sea and the
Gulf of Mexico to name a few79.
After examining the four basic areas, in which the existence of hydrocarbon reserves is
proven or highly plausible, it is essential to examine the coastal countries of the region in
order to further our cause in better understanding the role of the area as a producer of
energy resources. We will begin our country to country examination with Cyprus, which is
the very first country in the region to be surveyed for potential hydrocarbon reserves.
Cyprus
Cyprus has been the very first country to be subject of surveys for hydrocarbon reserves
around its waters during the late 1930’s until early 2000’s. However, those surveys had
limited results mostly due to technical limitations. Consequently, Cyprus has always been a
country and economy based on oil and electricity, while its gas reserves and consumption
were very limited to none80.
Since 2010 and the latest developments, which charter an area south of the island (from the
Levantine to the Herodotus Basin) of increased importance for the Republic of Cyprus, it is
77 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011. 78 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.20. 79 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.21. 80 Ibid.
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believed that Cyprus‘s substantial offshore acreage in the Levant Basin, estimated by the
U.S. Geological Survey to contain mean recoverable resources of 1.7 billion barrels of oil and
122tcf of natural gas81.
82
This area has been split into thirteen fields, in which the Republic of Cyprus is expected to
conduct several surveys in cooperation with foreign oil and gas companies in the future. So
far field twelve, which is dubbed Aphrodite field, has been the most advanced field in
respect to the intensity of the surveys. Aphrodite field is located between the Exclusive
Economic Zones of Cyprus and Israel, and it is believed to contain about 5-8 tcf of natural gas
and be worth around 30 to 100bn US dollars.83 Officials from the Energy Agency of the
Republic of Cyprus have made more optimistic estimations of the size and value of the
reserves in the Aphrodite field. At this early stage, it is natural that slightly higher or lower
estimations are made, regarding the size and value of the fields. At this point, we should
only try to get an idea of the estimated range of the reserves84.
Noble Energy, a US company with Israeli interests, in cooperation with Delek Group, an
Israeli company, is in charge of the exploration process of the Aphrodite field. Aphrodite is
located adjacently to the giant Leviathan reserve, which is located inside the Israeli EEZ.
Aphrodite in its larger part in located inside the Cypriot EEZ, fact that would give Cyprus a
larger share from the joint exploitation of the reserve. At the moment, Aphrodite reserve is
capable of producing 10bcn per year for the next 20-30 years. Only 15% of the estimated
quantity of the 10bcn is capable of satisfying the energy needs of a small country like Cyprus
and most likely the rest will be exported85.
81 US Energy Information Administartion, “Cyprus energy country analysis”, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://205.254.135.7/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=CY&trk=m . 82 Source: http://www.cyprusnewsreport.com/?q=node/4626 83 International Crisis Group, ”Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue?”, International Crisis Group – Europe Report, 2012, p.12. 84 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.22. 85 International Crisis Group, ”Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue?”, International Crisis Group – Europe Report, 2012, p.12.
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The Cypriot Government seems determined to establish Cyprus as significant energy
producer and a major energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such an aspiration demands
more than exploiting the Aphrodite field. To this end Cyprus is staging a second phase of
surveys in the near future in all the other 12 fields that are located inside its EEZ. Cyprus is
taking all political and diplomatic steps necessary, as well as making several structural
changes in its national legal system in order to enable more fast and efficient exploration
and exploitation processes by adhering to the legal framework established by the EU86.
Indeed, the Republic of Cyprus hosted a biding round for exploration rights and licenses in
the other twelve fields south of the island, which ended on May 2012 and reportedly it
garnered interest from several major foreign companies87.
Additionally, we have to state once more that Greece, Cyprus and Israel have signed a
cooperation agreement, pledging themselves to work closely together in the energy sector.
Obviously, Cyprus is rapidly enhancing its status to a significant actor in the regional energy
security, due to its consistent effects to improve its ability to produce and export natural gas
and take advantage of its natural wealth, which resides inside its sovereign maritime zones.
Israel
Israel, conversely to Cyprus, already possessed national reserves of natural gas before the
discovery of offshore reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. These natural gas reserves are
majorly located in Mari and Noa gas fields, which are exploited by Yam Thetis company.
These reserves are mainly used to supply the Israeli power plants. However, the reserves are
insufficient to cover the total domestic needs of the Israeli economy, thus leading Israel to
import natural gas from abroad, mainly from Egypt via the Arish-Askhelon pipeline88.
Taking into consideration the latest turmoil in Egypt and the other Arab countries, the newly
found reserves in Eastern Mediterranean are something more than a simple economic gain
for the Jewish State. It is a ticket to the much sought energy self-sufficiency for a country
surrounded by hostile neighbors89.
These newly found reserves are located in the Levantine Basin, with the Leviathan and the
Tamar gas fields being the most prominent ones, being reportedly able to provide 17tcf and
8,4tcf of natural gas respectively. Both gas fields are operated by Noble Energy90. Dalit gas
field is also considered to be worth mentioning being able to provide around 15btf of natural
86 Michael Kyprianou & Co LLC, “HYDROCARBONS IN CYPRUS; Drilling for natural gas reserves”, p.1. http://www.kyprianou.com.cy/assets/mainmenu/216/docs/HydrocarbonsinCyprus.pdf . 87 “Cyprus’ second offshore bidding round: Expectations exceeded”, http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-second-offshore-bidding-round 88 CIA, The World Fact Book, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/is.html . 89 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.26. 90 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.5.
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gas.91 The Tamar gas field is operational, since March 30 201392, and is dubbed to be able to
cover Israel’s domestic consumption, while the Leviathan gas reserve is expected to be
exported.
93
Evidently, Israel is so far one of the most benefited countries from these late discoveries of
energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, since it has managed to become self-
sufficient; cease being dependent on hostile neighbors and has gained the friendship of two
other significant players in the region – Greece and Cyprus – following its fallout with its
longstanding local ally, Turkey.
Palestinian Authority – Gaza Strip
The Palestinian Authority is likely to be involved in the gambit of energy security in the
Eastern Mediterranean, if at some point it manages to become a recognized sovereign state
and acquires maritime zones of control outside the Gaza Strip94.
Since 1999, the Palestinian Authority agreed with natural gas company BG Group the
exploitation rights for the Marine-1 gas field, which contains 1,4tcf of natural gas, in its
territorial waters in the Gaza Strip. Israel did not object the agreement and even considered
to import natural gas from the reserve; however, it failed to reach an agreement with the
company95.
91 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p.8. 92 Sharon Udasin, “Natural gas from Tamar field starts flowing”, The Jerusalem Post, 2013, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Report-Gas-from-Tamar-field-to-come-online-Sunday-308186 . 93 Source: http://oxfordswfproject.com/2011/01/25/imf-to-israel-start-planning-new-swf/ . 94 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.27. 95 Ibid.
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Recent surveys have discovered the Mari-B gas field, which is located between the Israeli
EEZ and the potential Palestinian EEZ. The Mari-B gas field is estimated to contain around
1tcf of natural gas96.
If anything, the recent Arab Uprisings have created a new trend in the Arab populations,
which means that sooner or later, one way or the other the question of Palestine will have
to be answered and with it Palestine will acquire access and rights to the exploitation of its
natural wealth. In what way, this will take place; it is to be decided in the future.
Egypt
Egypt is the only country in the Eastern Mediterranean, which possesses significant proven
and fully recoverable reserves of natural gas, a cohesive industrial sector for the exploitation,
production and export of natural gas to other countries97.
Egypt’s goal to be established as a significant producer of energy resources has been
successful due to its consistent efforts from 1998 till today. In a decade, Egypt’s natural gas
production has quadrupled and today its reserves are estimated to be about 77tcf of natural
gas. Such gigantic reserves place Egypt among the top three countries in natural gas reserves
in Africa alongside Nigeria and Algeria98.
During the last years Egypt is producing an average of 2,2tfc of natural gas on an annual
basis, and uses a significant proportion to cover approximately its domestic demands.
According to 2009 data, Egypt exported a total of 650bcf of natural gas. The two state-
owned companies Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Egyptian Natural Gas
Holding Company are responsible for all issues regarding exploitation, production and export
of energy resources99.
The Nile Cone is the major gas field of Egypt and produces almost 70% of Egypt’s total
production. A 30% of the natural gas exported by Egypt is transited to the buying countries
through pipelines, while the other 70% is transited as Liquefied Natural Gas. Egypt has three
major liquefied natural gas facilities, capable of producing 600bcf per year100. The United
States, Spain and France are the major destinations for Egyptian LNG. Moreover, Egypt is
supplying natural gas to Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria through the Arab Gas Pipeline.
The existing Egyptian reserves are seemingly at their peak and a potential increase in the
produced quantities is dubious. In mid-term it is expected that at least the exported
quantities will be decreased101.
96 “Noble Energy starts up gas production from Mari-B field off Israel”, http://www.ogj.com/articles/2003/12/noble-energy-starts-up-gas-production-from-mari-b-field-off-israel.html . 97 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.28. 98 US Energy Information Agency, “Egypt energy country analysis”, http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=EG . 99 Ibid. 100 Ibid. 101 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.29.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
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Obviously, Egyptian natural gas reserves and consequently its production can be increased
due to the newly discovered gas fields in the wider region of Eastern Mediterranean.
Specifically, according to the US Geological Survey the Nile Cone may contain up to 106tcf of
natural gas102. Egypt could also seek a bilateral agreement with Cyprus for the joint
exploitation of the neighboring gas fields located between the Egyptian and the Cypriot
EEZ103.
At the moment, especially after the ousting of Mohammed Morsi and the atypical military
coup, Egypt is heavily focused on its internal issues and its future is still fragile, with followers
of Muslim Brotherhood protesting on the streets despite the crackdown from the Egyptian
Army. Additionally, with western intervention imminent in Syria, the whole region is about
to be set on fire.
Syria
Syria, nowadays, produces mainly oil; however due to a possible depletion of its reserves,
the country is reorienting itself to the production of natural gas104. Syria has proven reserves
estimated around 8,5tcf natural gas and an annual production of 219bcf during 2009105.
The current domestic demand surpasses the natural gas production, so Syria has been
forced to import additional quantities of natural gas mainly from Egypt through the Arab Gas
Pipeline.
Before the civil war broke out, Syria had signed several agreements with countries like
Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Azerbaijan for the construction of pipelines transiting gas through the
Syrian territory towards the European market. However, the civil war, the diplomatic
isolation and the likely military intervention from the US and those willing to follow have
completely changed the scenery for the time being.
Anyhow, the civil war will end at some point, hopefully without causing a regional onslaught;
and Syria will remain a key actor in the regional energy security, especially since the US
Geological Survey reports strong possibility of gas fields containing up to 122tcf of natural
gas in the area between Syria’s, Lebanon’s and Israel’s EEZs106.
102 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p4. 103 Constantinos Filis, “The Hydrocarbons of Eastern Mediterranean; Converge Tool or Competition Product?”, aixmi.gr, 2012, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/ . 104 Iosif Iosifidis, “Energy Planning 2011-2030 and Geopolitics. Cyprus: Renewable Energy, Natural Gas. 27+12 countries together… and 1 against.”. Parga Publications, 2011, p.27. 105 US Energy Information Agency, “Syria energy country analysis”, http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SY . 106 Bruneton Alain, Konofagos Elias, Foscolos Anthony, ”The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU”, Technical University of Crete, 2011, p5.
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Lebanon
Lebanon is not an oil or natural gas producing country, therefore is forced to import
resources in order to satisfy its domestic demand of energy resources, mainly oil, through
pipelines. Since 2009 Lebanon is importing small quantities of natural gas from Egypt trough
the Arab Gas Pipeline and is interested in participating in the Islamic Gas Pipeline project107.
Lebanon believes it can benefit from participating in the energy gambit in the Eastern
Mediterranean. Lebanon has made claims on portions of the gigantic Israeli gas field
Leviathan, while it intends to host licensing rounds for the exploitation rights of potential gas
fields in areas near the Cypriot EEZ108. The Lebanese reserves are estimated to be around
25tcf of natural gas, while there are reports that Lebanon may have reserves, which surpass
those of Cyprus. Such twist would highlight the importance of Lebanon in the region’s future
production109 .
Moreover, it is highly plausible for Lebanon and Cyprus to cooperate in the joint exploitation
of certain gas fields between their respective EEZs, after bilateral agreements110.
Unfortunately, Lebanon’s future is deeply intertwined with that of Syria, especially due to
the strong ties between Bashar Al-Assad, Iran and Hezbollah. A military intervention in Syria
most likely will affect Lebanon as well and if the situation escalates further, it is sure that the
country will be involved.
Turkey
Based on 2011 date, Turkey’s proven natural gas reserves are about 218bcf, while the
country’s production was about 25bcf of natural gas, solely used to satisfy domestic
consumption. The above mentioned production is from the Black Sea reserves with the
biggest one being the reserve located in the Marmara Sea111.
Evidently, the domestic production of natural gas does not suffice to cover the increasing
needs of Turkey, which amount to 1,3tcf per year. Therefore, Turkey is obliged to import
natural gas from Russian, Azeri and Iranian gas through the Romania-Bulgaria-Turkey
pipeline; the Blue Stream pipeline; the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline and the Iran-Turkey
pipeline112.
107 Natural Gas Europe,” Some Reasons to Materialize Iran, Iraq, and Syria’s Gas Pipeline”, 2013, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/iran-iraq-and-syria-gas-pipeline . 108 Middle East Monitor, “Huge natural gas field discovered in Lebanese waters”, 2013, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/6171-huge-natural-gas-field-discovered-in-lebanese-waters . 109 Ibid. 110 Constantinos Filis, “The Hydrocarbons of Eastern Mediterranean; Converge Tool or Competition Product?”, aixmi.gr, 2012, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.aixmi.gr/index.php/ydrogonanthrakes-anat-mesog/ . 111 US Energy Information Agency, “Turkey energy country analysis”, http://205.254.135.7/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TU . 112 Ibid.
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Apart from the pipelines, Turkey can import natural gas in LNG form as in the country
operates a facility, which is able to transform LNG to natural gas. Turkey’s main LNG
providers are Algeria and Nigeria113.
Turkey wishes to enhance its geopolitical role by becoming an major energy transit hub for
the natural gas exported from Russia, the Caspian countries and presumably Iran to the EU.
Already since 2007 the Greek-Turkish part of the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector
pipeline has been completed. This pipeline is capable of transferring up to 420bcf of natural
gas per year from Azerbaijan through Turkey, Greece and Italy to the European market114.
Given Turkey’s desire to establish itself as a regional power and dominant actor, it is natural
to expect that Turkey, especially after the latest discoveries of energy resources in the
Eastern Mediterranean, would be extremely interested in finding and exploiting its own
potential oil and natural gas reserves. However, this is easier said than done. In the Aegean
Sea both Turkey and Greece are unable to agree on the establishment of maritime
sovereignty zones and consequently any plans for exploration and exploitation from both
countries have been stopped. Additionally, Turkey has a casus belli on Greece, voted by the
Turkish national Parliament, in case Greece decides to increase its territorial waters to 12
nautical miles, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Furthermore, Turkey is trying to circumvent the Greek island of Kastelorizo pretending it is
not entitled to an EZZ and claims its own EEZ between the potential Greek EEZ and the
Cypriot EEZ, in order to gain access to the Herodotus Basin area -once more deliberately
ignoring the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Part VIII Article 121, which states that
islands are entitled to all maritime sovereignty zones including EEZ.
Turkey has maintained its hostile actions and rhetoric towards the Republic of Cyprus -even
threatening to use force against it, which is a blatant violation of the UN Charter Chapter I
Article 2 paragraph 4- in order to prevent Cyprus from exercising its sovereign rights to
explore and exploit the natural gas fields inside its own EEZ.
Moreover, on September 2011 Turkey concluded a continental shelf delimitation agreement
with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a political entity only recognized by Turkey115.
This agreement took place in order to pave the road for Turkey to explore and exploit
potential natural gas fields located in the area between Kyrenia, Karpasia, Mersina and
Iskenderun116.
113 Ibid. 114 Ibid. 115 Robert Ellis, “Cyprus at the crossroads”, New Europe online, 2011, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.neurope.eu/kn/article/cyprus-crossroads . 116 Andreas Philippou, “Cyprus gas exploration opportunities”, Baker Tilly International, 2012, Retrieved 27/08/2013 from http://www.bakertillyklitou.com/default.aspx?NewsID=196&typeid=15 .
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Greece
Greece has so far no reliable data regarding proven or potential reserves of natural gas117,
however, Greece has a modest oil field in the area of Prinos operating since 1973. Despite
the lack of domestic production Greece is consuming natural gas in an increasing rate118,
mostly in the electricity production sector. Russia is Greece’s major natural gas exporter,
followed by Azerbaijan. Greece also imports LNG from Algeria119.
Particularly since 2004, the Hellenic Republic is steadily trying to enhance its role in the
wider geopolitical natural gas transit gambit from Russian and other countries from Central
Asia to the EU. Greece participated in the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector project and
revealed it interest in taking part in the South Stream project, which alongside the Nord
Stream aimed to circumvent Ukraine, following the tensions between Ukraine and Russia
from 2006 and on120.
Fueled by the economic crisis and the need for growth, the Greek Governments consider the
new discoveries of energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean as a viable option in order
to ease the burden of the crisis and improve the countries financial status. This led to a very
serious effort to establish an effective framework through which the exploration and
exploitation of oil and gas fields can be facilitated121.
According to the latest discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean, the most prolific regions
for Greece are the region south of the island of Crete and the region of the Herodotus Basin.
This is based on a special research published by the Technical University of Crete, which
noted that the geological similarities of those areas with other areas rich in hydrocarbons
are hinting to the existence of significant oil and gas reserves in these two regions. Their
observations are in accordance with the reports of the US Geological Survey, which
considers that these regions as “of increased interest”.
Greece needs to pursue more actively the exploration and exploitation of energy resources
in its sovereign zones of control, given the current financial crisis. It is necessary for Greece
to attract interest from foreign companies through licensing rounds for exploration and
exploitation rights. In addition the Greek Government should not only attempt to become an
energy resource producer but also establish itself as an important energy transit hub for the
newly discovered energy reserves in the region to the European market. Greece and South
East Europe is a very strong candidate for the transit of energy resources of the region to the
EU especially after the TransAdriaticPipeline has been selected to transfer the Azeri gas to
Europe.
117 US Energy Information Agency, “Overview data for Greece”, http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=GR&trk=m . 118 Ibid. 119 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.37. 120 Ibid. 121 Ibid.
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The role of the area as a transit region for global energy
production
In the previous part of this paper, we examined the contribution of the Eastern
Mediterranean as a producer of energy resources. We examined that at the moment the
region holds a lot of potential and could become a significant contributor on global energy
production in the years to come, if there is the necessary stability in the region to enable
them more forward and prosper.
At this part of our analysis in the region’s contribution to energy security, we will examine
how the Eastern Mediterranean can enhance its geopolitical role as an important energy
transit hub.
As stated above in the geography of the Eastern Mediterranean part of this paper, in the
Eastern Mediterranean are located two very important chokepoints for international trade;
the Suez Canal in Egypt and the Bosporus in Turkey. Suez Canal alone handles about 15% of
global maritime trade122. Both of these chokepoints are the most efficient sea trade routes
for the trade flow between the EU and its trade partners; Russia, the countries of the
Caspian, African countries, Central Asia, the Gulf States, India and the Far East.
Consequently, it is clear that through these chokepoints the EU receives most of its energy
resources from S. Arabia, Iraq, Iran (not after the UNSC sanctions), Russia, and Azerbaijan to
name a few.
The Bosporus in the main sea trade route between EU, Russia and the countries of the post-
soviet area, which represent a large portion of EU’s imports in oil and natural gas, while Suez
Canal is the main sea trade route between Europe and the countries of the Asian continent.
Except from the two chokepoints in Suez and Bosporus, the Eastern Mediterranean’s
geopolitical role as an energy transit hub can be enhanced through the completion of
projects that can offer alternative and diversified sources of energy, as it is proposed in the
EU’s Third Energy Package123. The South Stream Pipeline and the TransAdriaticPipeline
projects can assist in the efforts to enhance the Eastern Mediterranean’s role as an
important energy transit hub.
However, especially after the latest discoveries in the region, the major question that has
risen is if, how and where the new local producers will make available their resources. Many
of the countries in the region that have proven or potential energy reserves are depending
on imports to satisfy their domestic demands. The second issue is where these countries will
choose to export their energy resources, if indeed they decide to do so, in the nearby EU
market or to the hungry for gas and oil rising Asian giants – India and China. Lastly, how are
they going to export their resources through tankers or pipelines? These three issues, we
will try to examine in the following lines.
122 Jean-Paul Rodrigue,“The Geography of Transport Systems”, New York, Routledge, 2013. 123 European Commission,” Third package for Electricity & Gas markets”, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/gas_electricity/legislation/third_legislative_package_en.htm .
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Exports and domestic needs
Whenever a country discovers energy reserves in its territory, has to make the decision on
whether it is going to use those reserves to satisfy its domestic needs or export them or
both.
If the country decides to both export and use some of its production to satisfy domestic
demands, it will have to decide the amounts it is going to dedicate for each purpose.
However, such decision as far from simple and straightforward in most of the cases. The
country must take in consideration its energy consumption mixture. For example if the
country’s economy is fully dependent on oil and it has discovered natural gas reserves,
which is the case for the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, then it has to consider how
it can modify its economy to benefit most from the newly discovered natural gas reserves.
This is the case for Cyprus. The islands economy is mostly based on oil consumption124,
however after the latest discoveries of natural gas reserves the government is trying to
encourage the transition to a more natural gas based economy. The results are not very
successful but nevertheless are encouraging. Similar is the case for Israel, which after the
discoveries and the exploitation of Leviathan and Tamar gas fields is actively pursuing to
alter its domestic consumption towards a more gas friendly mixture.
Obviously, such alterations in a county’s economy might face serious planning and financial
challenges, but that is why perhaps a country might choose to export its whole production if
altering its own domestic consumption mixture is not feasible.
Still such a choice is not an easy one to make as that country would still remain dependent
for its energy supply from third parties. This might turn into a dreadful event given the
volatile and fluid atmosphere that is ever-present in the area. For example, Israel, which is
importing energy resources from Egypt from the Arab Gas Pipeline, as we said in the
previous part of this paper, has found itself without natural gas for days and sometimes
even for weeks due to bomb attacks on the pipeline, mostly because of the turmoil in Egypt.
The situation is similar for Cyprus, as it faces a constant threat from Turkey. A starved for
energy economy is as useless as an army starved for fuel.
The continuous instability in the region may lead several countries in the region to opt for a
change in their energy consumption mixture that will favor natural gas in order to
strengthen their security. To the very least that would be a very rational option. Yet, it is still
very early to foresee, what path its country will follow since the majority of the fields have
not been explored and we done have concrete data on the existence or the size of gas fields
in the region125.
124 European Comission, Eurostat, “Energy Dependency rate - All Products, 2009 (% of net imports in gross inland consumption and bunkers, based on tonnes of oil equivalent)”, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Energy_dependency_rate_-_all_products,_2009_%28%25_of_net_imports_in_gross_inland_consumption_and_bunkers,_based_on_tonnes_of_oil_equivalent%29.png&filetimestamp=20111123174545 . 125 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.60-61.
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While the proven and the estimated so far energy resource reserves in Eastern
Mediterranean are significant, they cannot be compared with the potential of the major
international energy producers like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US (if we take into
account the shale gas boom, which is taking place in the country); and by no means cannot
satisfy the growing energy demands of the EU126.
Therefore, countries that are able to produce small amounts of energy resources will find it
very difficult to export their production due to the limited size of it and its higher cost for the
importers, when in competition against major international suppliers.
For that reason, the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean should seek to enhance their
cooperation and collaboration with each other, in order not only to increase their offered
quantities of energy resources, but it would enhance the role of the region on the
international energy map and would increase the power of the countries individually and
collectively. Through a collective exporting effort, small producers will have better chances
to attract interest from investors in the modern competitive energy market. Moreover, the
countries of the region, which traditionally don’t have the best relations with each other,
could use the field of energy exports as a tool which would assist them in overcoming their
old rivalries and differences. Cooperation would deter further hostilities and future conflicts
and could bring stability in the region, since it would help create friendly relations based on
mutual interests and economic growth. Already there are signs of such behavior from mainly
three countries in the region; Greece, Cyprus and Israel. Greece, Cyprus and Israel could be a
bright example, which could inspire other local players to join the aforementioned countries
in a wider spirit of cooperation. This existing cooperation is not a product of the selfish
motives of those three actors, but it is based on mutual interests of the whole Eastern
Mediterranean region127.
As we examined previously, the rivalries between the local players originated many years
ago and some can say that they have sunk deeply into the consciousness of the population,
this creates a risk that the countries of the region will not decide to cooperate together and
will opt to form different alliances based on the existing rivalries or new ones that may arise.
Indeed, this is quite possible and would only cause greater problems and greater instability
to the region. It could prove to be a great threat in regional security and maybe to the
international peace and stability128.
The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean should realize that conflict and hostility can only
cause pain and sorrow for their people and should pursue the path of cooperation, if the
genuinely seek peace and prosperity.
126 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.63. 127 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.64. 128 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.66-67.
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Strategic Orientation
Having previously examined how the countries of the region will decide on the future use of
their energy resource production, now we will proceed examining, the potential target
markets for their exports. The two dominant options are Europe and Asia. The choice of the
destination of their energy resources will be based on several variants, such as: how the
energy resources will be transported, what will be the profit and the risk involves, which
companies are going to participate in the exploration and exploitation process.
The European energy market is a solid choice for any exporter, as most of the European
countries are poor in energy resources; as it is an open market with room for increasing the
market share for new players; and as it is actively seeking to limit is dependency from
Russian exports of oil and gas. Specifically the Third Energy Package prioritizes energy
security through its policies for diversified energy suppliers and the investment in better
infrastructure for the transit of energy resources. Moreover, the new legal framework
encourages and supports new players, who wish to get involved in the European energy
market129.
Europe is very dependent on energy resources imports and this is not going to change in the
future as it is estimated that Europe’s consumption of natural gas is going to increase by
2030130.
131
Moreover, since the events in Fukushima important European energy importers like
Germany has decided to reduce their usage of nuclear energy for security reason, while UK
129 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.71. 130 Eurogas, “Natural Gas Demand and Supply - Long Term Outlook to 2030”, http://www.eurogas.org/uploaded/Eurogas%20long%20term%20outlook%20to%202030%20-%20final.pdf , p.2–6. 131 Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/files/EU_FORECAST_TOWARDS_2020.PNG .
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and France are investing in modernizing their nuclear plants132. EU’s efforts to decrease its
dependency by traditional energy sources in favor of renewable energy sources have been
ineffective given the high cost and the lack of relevant technological inventions, which could
decrease the aforementioned cost and make renewable energy sources more viable. The
economic crisis and the austerity measures have also taken their toll on the investments on
green energy. As a result there is more room for increase in the EU’s consumption of natural
gas, which is the most environmental friendly from the existing traditional energy sources133.
The economic crisis in European Union are also going to force the EU Member States to seek
out deals, which will be financially prudent and guarantee relatively low prices. This could
limit the potential profit of the energy suppliers in the European market and make the Asian
market more prosperous and thus more attractive. However, the European market is more
politically stable, less competitive and a strategic cooperation between the EU and the
countries of the Eastern Mediterranean would provide additional benefits to the countries
of the region134.
Part of the Eastern Mediterranean belongs geographically to Europe, which means the cost
of the transit of energy resources smaller and would guarantee the exclusion of middle
parties, which would seek benefits as transit countries and increase the final price of the
commodities and therefore their competiveness135.
The European Union Member States has been peaceful with each other for over 60 years
and it is unlikely that they will go to war against each other for the coming years. While Asia
is a region filled with rivalries and disputes among the countries in it and conflicts are more
likely to take place in the region the next years, especially due to the arms race that is taking
place following the unquestionable rise of China. Based on this Europe is a much safer
export destination for the countries of Eastern Mediterranean is it is unlike that their supply
will be stopped through embargoes or blockades, which could take place if conflict would
take place in the Far East.
Greece and Cyprus are Member States of the European Union and any future energy
resources trade between the EU and the Eastern Mediterranean would increase their
influence inside the decision-making bodies of the Union. Additionally, the rest of the
Eastern Mediterranean countries have a long tradition of bilateral or multilateral relations
with the EU and its Member States, which would establish a future cooperation in the
energy sector more mature and familiar136.
132 Judy Dempsey and Jack Ewing, “Germany, in Reversal, Will Close Nuclear Plants by 2022”, The New York Times, 2011, Retrieved 28/08/2013 from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/world/europe/31germany.html?_r=0 . 133 NaturalGas.Org, “Natural Gas and the Environment”, Retrieved 28/08/2013 from
http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp . 134 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.74. 135 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.77-78. 136 Ibid.
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The Asian market is a huge energy market only if we take into consideration that it contains
India and China, the two most populous countries of the world with a continuous increase in
their yearly consumption of energy resources. Obviously the unquenchable thirst of this
market for more energy resources is guaranteeing consistent high prices and ample room for
new suppliers to sell their resources. However, the Asian market is a very competitive one
with major and rising international energy suppliers fighting for their share in it. Already,
Russia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, Yemen, Iran, Turkmenistan are striking long-term deals to
supply Asian countries with oil and gas. If we take into consideration the estimated vast
reserves of shale gas in the Chinese underground, which are still unrecoverable due to
China’s lack of appropriate technology, it is evident that the Asian market is very competitive
and fluid137. Also, given the comparatively small amount of energy resources that could be
produced from the Eastern Mediterranean countries, always based on the existing findings,
would make it more difficult to earn its place in the expanding Asian market.
The option of the European energy market seems much more viable from the choice of the
Asian market, which is a high risk-high reward choice.
Sea and Underwater Transit Routes
Another important issue, after it is decided where to export our energy resources, is to
choose how our resources will be transferred. The two options are either by an underwater
pipeline or by turning natural gas to LNG, which then will be loaded into special tankers and
will be transported to Europe.
At the moment, Israel and Cyprus are the only countries of the Eastern Mediterranean that
are capable in short-mid-term to export energy resources abroad. Therefore, if they decide
to export their resources through pipelines either in a joint or independent effort their most
sensible and low risk transit partner would be Greece. Potentially Palestinian and Egyptian
gas could be included in the equation, if political hindrances can be overcome. Israel, Cyprus.
Palestine and Egypt could in a short-term of 5-8 years manage to export their resources to
Europe, if they can reach into the necessary agreements. Greece and Lebanon cannot be
considered as potential producers for at least the next 10 and 15 years respectively138.
It is highly advisable that the countries should try to take part in a wide joint effort, which
will promote cooperation, peace and stability in the region. For this to become a reality, the
countries so refrain from isolating potential partners and actively pursue a path of joint
efforts. As stated above, creating two or more competitive sides in the region would be
devastating for the success chances of all. Therefore, countries should not exclude others
based on religious or political beliefs, but work towards creating a project that will
guarantee the prosperity and the well-being of the whole area.
Nevertheless, even if only Cyprus and Israel decide to export their resources through
Greece, the estimated available quantity of natural gas for exports would make the
137 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.78-79. 138 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.84.
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construction of a new pipeline project through Greece more viable than transferring gas as
LNG via tankers. So the recommended route for Israeli or/and Cypriot gas exported to
Europe would be through Eastern Crete to Peloponnese, where natural gas could be
channeled through the existing or an upgraded or a new pipeline grid in Greece139.
So, there are two options for gas transport: the first is through underwater pipeline and the
second is through tankers. The pipeline could be consisting of one, two or three parts or to
be double and to have reserve flow capabilities. Specifically, the pipeline could connect
natural gas fields with Cyprus and Cyprus with Crete and Crete with Greek mainland. It could
also start from Israel or/and have double capacity so that it can transport Israeli gas as well.
Finally, Israel and Cyprus could connect each other by constructing an underwater pipeline.
From Greece the exported Israeli or/and Cypriot natural gas could be channeled through
Italy to West Europe and through Bulgaria to the Balkans140.
Transferring the natural gas through tankers requires the construction of LNG terminals in
the producing and importing countries. The construction of LNG terminals needs significant
funding and technological expertise. Funding especially is not very easy to accrue, since
LNG’s future recipient is not certain, as the producer can decide to who he wishes to sells his
resources at any given time141.
Researches have proven that the construction of an underwater pipeline towards Greece is
feasible despite its length, sea depth and the morphology of the terrain.
An underwater pipeline important security and stability advantages that can constitute is a
more attractive option. An underwater pipeline offers a steady and unhindered supply of
energy to the recipient. Tankers are subject to bad weather and are vulnerable to attacks,
piracy and market prices. Underwater pipelines located at 3000 meters depth are much
safer and guarantee the supply of gas to Europe. Moreover, the construction and the
operation of pipelines require the existence of long-term contracts, which provide a valuable
stability in the relations between buyer and seller142.
A pipeline grid, which could potentially inspire better relations, closer cooperation and
better understanding between the countries of the region is more viable from an economic
perspective, because the larger amounts of gas supplied, as a result of a regional
cooperation, the less the construction cost of the pipeline project would be. Therefore, once
more it is evident that cooperation and friendly relations between the countries of the
Eastern Mediterranean would be most beneficial for all the parties involved.
The European energy market mainly because of its low risk and institutionalized structure is
an attractive market for several other energy providers. This is the reason why the Eastern
139 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.85. 140 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.85-88. 141 Ibid. 142 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.89.
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Mediterranean countries should act swiftly and gain early access to the European market
and funding from the EU as their first non-Russian gas provider of the South Energy Corridor.
Another important issue for the construction of a pipeline project is that requires the
involvement of big foreign companies that possess the financial muscle and technological
expertise to facilitate the timely completion of the project. Such companies might be
discouraged to invest in the turbulent area of the Eastern Mediterranean, especially after
the recent events. However, with the support and the cooperation of the EU, major
European Companies would be encouraged to invest. Russian companies Gazprom and
Rosneft have been interested in getting involved in the energy sector of the Eastern
Mediterranean as well. China has also declared interest in construction an LNG terminal in
Cyprus either aiming to infiltrate the European Market or to secure resources, which can be
imported to satisfy domestic consumption or to be resold in the Asian market143.
The role of the region on energy security for the EU/EU
member states
Energy security of a country is the sufficient and unhindered supply of energy resources. It is
achieved through the interaction of a number of variants, such as; the existence of necessary
suppliers and reserves, their integrity, the existence of an energy supply grid and the
security of the energy resources transit among others.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, energy security has two points of view. Firstly, securing the
necessary energy resources for the countries of the region and secondly, Eastern
Mediterranean’s role as a crucial energy corridor for the European Union. The regional
energy security is strengthened as a consequence of the latest discoveries of natural gas
fields. These discoveries are an opportunity to decrease the regional energy dependence
and an opportunity for economic growth.
So far the Eastern Mediterranean is a significant route for EU’s natural gas and oil imports,
as through the region is trafficked approximately 35% of EU’s natural gas consumption and
50% of its oil consumption.
European Energy Security is mainly pursued by seeking alternative suppliers and diversified
transit routes. Additionally, the EU wishes to encourage the consumption of renewable
energy sources, energy saving, harmonizing domestic markets with the rules of free market
and coordinating the legal framework in community level. The search for alternative energy
suppliers is not based on the fact that the EU needs more energy resources, but it is based
on the very high level of energy dependency from Russia.144
143 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.96-99. 144 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.102.
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145
Russia’s dominant position in the European imports of energy resources is driving the EU to
seek alternates, which could decrease Russia’s influence. Russia seeks to control the transit
routes between itself and the EU, especially after the 2006 events with Ukraine. Nord
Stream and South Stream pipelines are Russian-inspired projects that could circumvent
Ukraine, which is the major energy transit hub between Russia and the EU.
Therefore, it is vital for the European Union to seek and find alternatives regarding the
supply and the transit of the energy resources, which will decrease its dependency from
Russia and strengthen its bargain capabilities in future bilateral agreements with Russia on
the energy market sector.
The future exports of natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region could be an ideal
option for the EU in its struggles to secure both alternative suppliers and transit routes. It
seems that the interests of both the EU and the Eastern Mediterranean’s countries coincide.
This creates an interdependency, which could lead to a long-term mutually beneficial
cooperation146.
The countries of Eastern Mediterranean are given the chance to play an additional key role
to European energy security. This would be the role of an alternative supplementary natural
gas provider of the Member States of the EU.
As it has been mentioned earlier, the currently estimated reserves of the Eastern
Mediterranean do not suffice to fully satisfy EU’s extremely high energy demands, therefore,
they cannot endanger Russia’s dominant role. The supplied natural gas could also make the
EU less vulnerable to future tension between Russia and Ukraine.
As mentioned before, Russia is extremely interested in acquiring its share in the rising
Eastern Mediterranean energy market. Ensuring its continued control over Europe’s energy
imports is an important goal and Moscow will definitely pursue it. Moscow realizes that if an
145 European Commission, Directorate General for Energy, “Key Figures”, 2011, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/countries/doc/key_figures.pdf , p.7. 146 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.105.
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independent connection between the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe is established, it
will hurt its own interests.
For Europe, the rise of the Eastern Mediterranean as a significant supplier of energy
resources is a great chance to deal with its security dilemmas towards Russia in the energy
sector and elsewhere. Moreover, a long-term cooperation between the countries of the
region and the EU will assist in forging strong partner relations, which in turn could help in
solving or limiting other major issues in the region like political instability, poverty and illegal
immigration147.
Europe has two options; either import natural as from the Eastern Mediterranean in the LNG
form, which would require building the necessary facilities, or to pursue a more stable
connection with the Eastern Mediterranean through a pipeline grid148.
It is important for the European Union to realize that its strength lies in its numbers and its
ability to act as one unit. If the EU wishes to tackle the issue of energy security effectively, it
must act as a unit, overcoming its bureaucracy and avoiding any delay.
So far our analysis indicates that for both the EU and the countries of the Eastern
Mediterranean, the most beneficial way of transferring energy resources between the two
areas is through the construction of pipeline grid, based on strategic, political and economic
interests, we will examine the potential route of this pipeline under the perspective of the
EU energy security interests.
Evidently, connecting the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe through Turkey would be the
cheapest option available. Turkey has already an extensive network of pipelines in its
territory, which is already used to supply European Market. Turkey is also a country with
increasing energy consumption, which could buy resources for its own use. However,
Turkey’s pipeline grid is old and is unlikely to accept a third party in its pipeline network149.
Another significant point is that, Turkey does not share the best relations neither with
Cyprus nor with Israel, despite the efforts from President Obama. In that respect, it can also
be said that Turkey does not have good relations with the rest countries of the region, like
Egypt (especially after recent comment made by PM Erdogan, who tried to blame Israel for
the latest upheaval in Egypt), Syria and Greece. In other words, such a project, which would
use Turkey as an energy hub, would most likely face strong opposition from the exporting
countries.
If the pipeline project would choose Turkey as its energy transit hub, would most likely make
Turkey, “the Ukraine of the South”. As Ukraine is the major transit energy hub for the energy
imports of EU trough Russia, Turkey would become Europe’s major transit hub of its South
Energy Corridor, giving Turkey significant influence and role in Europe’s energy security.
Obviously, Europe would rather not be so dependent on an unpredictable regional actor.
147 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.107-108. 148 Ibid. 149 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.109-110.
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Any potential dispute or tension between Turkey and one of its neighbors that will be
supplying the EU with natural gas, could lead to cessation of continuous flow of energy
resources towards Europe150. Such a risk is highly probable and could deter investors,
importers, exporters and consumers, who demand continuous and unhindered flow of
resources and reliable and predictable partners151.
Most probably, Turkey would not be an ideal path through which the natural gas of the
Eastern Mediterranean could be transported to European energy market. On the other
hand, Greece, despite its current inconveniences, has always been a country with friendly
relations with its neighbors in the Mediterranean, obviously except Turkey, and could be a
suitable energy transit hub for the regions natural gas exported to Europe.
Greece for the last thirty years has enjoyed close relations with the Arab world, is a Member
State of the European Union and the Eurozone, therefore can be considered a reliable and
predictable partner. Geographically, Greece has always been, alongside with Cyprus since
2004, the southernmost frontier of the European Union in the region and constitute a
physical bridge between the EU and the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean152.
Another point is that the European Union should seek to avoid including many and different
legal systems during its interconnection with the producing countries of the Eastern
Mediterranean. Naturally, the Union should prefer to avoid using non-Member States as
transit partners and should support the role of its Member States in the region, as they can
guarantee the security of the transportation of the energy resources.
In the case of Greece as an energy transit hub for the natural gas from the countries of the
Eastern Mediterranean, the European Union could avoid non-European actors, so that there
are no conflicting interests. In other words, the choice of Greece as an energy transit hub
seems to be the less risky and more financially viable one for the European Union.
Although, with current data Greece seems the most reasonable choice, the situation and the
balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean are very fragile. There many variants that
could alter our current assessments and make other routes more viable. With the situation
in Syria looking more and more desperate, while the US seems determined to launch a
military operation against Assad and Turkey declaring ready to use its military against the
regime as well, Russia, China and Iran trying to deter any hostile actions against the Syrian
regime and Egypt being in turmoil after the military coup, everything is very fluid in the
region.
It is also possible that neither Cyprus nor Israel will choose to export their natural gas to
Europe; they could potentially export it as LNG to the Asian market. Greece and Cyprus
might be one nation but are still to independent international actors, nothing can or must be
150 Constantinos Filis, “Energy, Tool of Converge or Competition Product; The Case of the Eastern Mediterranean”, in Nikolaos Farantouris, “Energy, Law, Economy and Politics”, Athens, Law Library, 2012, p.441. 151 Ibid. 152 Constantinos Filis, “Energy, Tool of Converge or Competition Product; The Case of the Eastern Mediterranean”, in Nikolaos Farantouris, “Energy, Law, Economy and Politics”, Athens, Law Library, 2012, p.442.
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taken as a given. After all, the much sought result is a viable, mutually accepted partnership
between as many regional actors as possible in order to ensure sufficient quantities of
natural gas, peace and stability in the region.
Nevertheless, both Greece and Cyprus are Members of the EU and their interests are aligned
with those of the Union. They both are obliged to adhere to European legislation and they
both have a saying in the decision-making procedure.
Nothing could be more ideal for the European Union if both its transit partner and its
producer are some of its own members. In a potential wider cooperation between the
countries of the region in the exporting efforts of natural gas, Greece as a transit partner and
Cyprus as one of the producers would be the best safety guarantee for the EU. Additionally
the accession of Israel in that close partner relation with Greece and Cyprus and any
potential inclusion of an Arab or Muslim country would only strengthen the strategic,
economic and political importance of the project153.
It is important to realize that Greece and Cyprus, for Israel, are reliable and honest
interlocutors, who could help it settle the disputes with its neighbors and normalize
diplomatic relations.
By enabling two of its own members to become reliable and important regional players in
the region of the Eastern Mediterranean, the EU strengthens its own influence and appeal in
the region. This could pave the road for closer cooperation between the EU and the
countries of the Region and could help solidify Europe’s influence in the region, especially
since the Arab Uprisings have left a huge void in the regional balance of power154.
Additionally, the financial benefits for Greece and Cyprus could help these countries
stimulate their economies and achieve the much needed growth. Such turn of events would
have a positive effect in the crisis stricken EU, which spends most of its resources to tackle
the crisis.
In other words, the region of the Eastern Mediterranean is a region of opportunities and
risks, the European Union and the countries of the region could benefit from a close
cooperation, however since the European Union is not famous for its quick reactions or its
adaptive capabilities. In my opinion, the past has always some interesting advices for the
troubles of the present, perhaps the European Union could benefit from that as well. A Latin
proverb says: “Audentes fortuna iuuat”, “fortune favors the bold”.
153 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.119. 154 Constantinos Filis, “The Role of Eastern Mediterranean in Europe’s Energy Security”, Athens, CERE-Institute of International Relations, 2012, p.120.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
Conclusion
The Eastern Mediterranean has been since that beginning of human history has been one of
the most important regions. Its unique geographic location, a crossroad between three
continents, connecting Europe, Asia and Africa have made it home to some of the most
important civilizations, cultures and religions the have existed, from the Egypt of the
Pharaohs, the Roman Empire and the Greek City States to Byzantium and the Ottoman
Empire.
It has been inhabited by populations, so diverse with regards to their appearance
characteristics, culture, religion and political views, which lived peacefully and at times
waged devastating wars between each other. Their spiritual and intellectual prowess led
them to miraculous discoveries and inventions that changed the course of history forever.
As the international system expanded around them, steadily the countries of the region
claimed a more subtle role; however they never lost their strategic importance. Nowadays in
the second decade of the 21st century, the Eastern Mediterranean remains an integral region
to global trade, international peace, stability and energy security.
The last few years, the region was brought once more under the spotlight of international
attention, because of the international economic crisis that heavily affected many of its
countries and because of the Arab Uprisings, perhaps the most earthshaking event our this
century so far, which has caused the regional security framework to splinter.
These new sources of turmoil, alongside with the old ever-present rivalries in the region are
brewing an explosive and fragile mixture of balance, ready to be distorted and engulf the
whole region to flames. The situation in Syria is very dramatic and dangerous, as the United
States are preparing another coalition of the willing to strike against the regime of Bashar Al-
Assad and Russia urging the US to avoid getting involved in the internal affairs of Syria.
The latest discoveries of energy resources in the area, alongside potential additional
discoveries in the Nile Cone, the Herodotus Basin and the Levantine could either prove to be
another point of friction and conflict or could prove to be the glue that will forge new
alliances and partnerships in the region, aiming to benefit and strengthen all those involved.
With Cyprus and Israel having already discovered gas fields of significant size in the
Aphrodite, Leviathan and Tamar fields, other countries hope that they can possibly find
significant hydrocarbon reserves as well.
The exploitation of these reserves can enhance the geopolitical role of the countries
individually and the role of the region as a whole. If the countries of the Eastern
Mediterranean decide to put aside their differences and work together for the common
interest, they could reap the substantial rewards from exporting energy resources and
limiting their national dependencies from gas and oil imports.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
So far Israel and Cyprus are the countries that in short-term could export natural gas, with
Greece being a valid and sound option as a transit hub if both or either of the two countries
choose to export their natural gas in the European Energy market. Indeed, those three
countries are developing strong relations and actively pursue close cooperation with each
other. Hopefully, other countries in the region can be inspired and express the will to
cooperate in order to mutually benefit and prosper. Of course, this remains to be seen since
the region remains quite fluid due to political instability in several major countries of the
region like Egypt and Syria.
The region’s future will depend on the strategic orientation each country will follow, the
choices they will make and the new balances that will be shaped. Greece and Cyprus have
the potential to become leading actors in the region, helping in the maintenance of stability,
as they have always shared close friendly relations with the countries of the Arab world and
currently share a strong partnership in different sectors with the State of Israel. Evidently,
they could play the role of the interlocutor and negotiator for these two sides and thus
facilitate and advance multilateral cooperation between the countries of the region.
Apart from that, Cyprus and Greece as members of the European Union can help their
neighbors and potential future partners in gaining the support and assistance from the
Union, not only in the energy sector, but in other aspects such as economic cooperation,
immigration and political stability. Additionally, the European Union could benefit from two
of its members playing a crucial role in the region of the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece as a
potential energy transit hub and Cyprus as one of the suppliers of natural gas for the Union,
could guarantee the safety and unhindered supply of natural gas to Europe. That would be
an alternate source from Russia and would prevent Turkey from becoming the “Ukraine of
the South” by being able to the only transit route of alternative energy sources for the
European Union.
Moreover, the EU could benefit from the enhanced role of two of its Member States in the
region to assert and increase its own influence in its neighboring and troublesome region of
the Eastern Mediterranean and thus establish itself as the key actor in the area.
Sadly, the European Union seems paralyzed by the economic crisis and is in an introvert
state and seems unwilling to take risks and pursue opportunities. Russia is determined to
maintain and increase its influence in the region, in order to protect its interests in having an
energy dependent EU and assert itself as the major stakeholder in the region.
Nevertheless, the competition in both the European and Asian energy markets is increasing
and the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean need to act in a swiftly manner if they are to
secure a significant share in either market.
Swift action should not become rush action, once more it must be highlighted that only by
achieving a cooperation as wide as possible, peace and stability in the region can be
maintained. The creating of two or more competitive alliances in the region would be
catastrophic.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
One last thing the countries of the region should take into consideration while they pursue
their dream of becoming energy producers is that of the environment. The Mediterranean
Sea is an almost enclosed sea, with its own unique and fragile ecosystem, that has, is and
will be vital for their survival. After all many countries on the region earn a great portion of
their revenue from tourist, for example Greek Tourism accounts for approximately 16% of its
GDP.
Cooperation with each other and the Mother Nature is crucial for a peaceful and safe future.
The countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, like every other country, should always keep
that in mind and try to make compromises and forge strong times with each other, based on
respect, honesty and mutual interests. All-inclusive deals might not be perfect but are better
and advance regional stability.
The Contribution of Eastern Mediterranean on International Security
By Dimosthenis D. Dimopoulos
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