SEASONALITY IN TOURISM –causes, implications and

strategies

Goran Ćorluka, mag.oec. Assistant Lecturer

University Department of Professional Studies

University Split, Croatia

Tourism is one of the biggest and fasted growing industries in the world, but it is characterised by seasonality.

Tourism as an integral part of global business is highly dependent on seasonal changes in climatic conditions, economic activities as well as human behaviour and the society in general.

Seasonality has become one of the most distinctive and determinative features of global tourism industry.

The most significant aspect of seasonality is that it involves the concentration of tourist flows in relatively short periods of the year.

Annual peaking of tourism activity during a few hectic weeks or months is likely to result in inefficiency within the industry and is a great burden on the physical and social resources of the destination area and therefore an important contributor to the carrying capacity problem.

The concept of seasonality may be perceived to be familiar to many, however, there is no unique and precise definition of it.

The concept of ‘season’ stems from the French word ‘saison’ which represents an ideal or favorite business period. ‘Saison’ is derived from the Latin word “satio” = (time of the sowings).

Season is “the most important period within the year, in which some certain things are abounding”.

It also refers to the existence of unevenness or fluctuation during the course of the year, which occurs in relation to a specific season.

Seasonality is the systematic, although not necessarily regular, intra-year movement caused by changes in the weather, the calendar, and timing of decisions, directly or indirectly through the production and consumption decisions made by the agents of the economy (Hylleberg, 1992).

Butler (1994) explains seasonality as ‘a temporal imbalance in the phenomenon of tourism, which may be expressed in terms of dimensions of such elements as numbers of visitors, expenditure of visitors, traffic on highways and other forms of transportation, employment, and admissions to attractions’.

Seasonality in tourism activity is not a particular characteristic of a single destination or country, as it is experienced in almost all countries and destinations in the world.

Seasonality causes the fluctuation in tourists and visitor numbers to a destination. Therefore, some destinations at certain times have more tourists and visitors than they are able to accommodate, while at other times, there are too few tourists and visitors to the region.

Seasonality affects all aspects of supply-side behaviour, finance, labour and stakeholder operations.

Seasonality was, is and, regarding the current situation, will be a temporal and spatial issue of tourism.

This phenomenon is mostly recognized as a problem to be tackled.

The majority of the tourist operators dealing with the issue of seasonality identifies these systematic demand fluctuations as a problem, which has to be overcome or, at least, modified and reduced in effect.

A good understanding of seasonality in tourism is essential for the efficient operation of tourism facilities and infrastructure.

It should be noted that seasonality does not refer to occasional

irregularities within tourism, but instead is concerned with the seasonal patterns that are stable and well-established.

Hartmann (1986) emphasises the reliable recurrence of the tourist phenomenon in the course of a year.

A similar view is taken by BarOn (1975), who defines seasonality as the effects occurring each year with more or less the same timing and magnitude.

Definitions face a systematic intra-year movement, therefor seasonality can be described as some sort of pattern in the visits that reoccur every year.

The pattern usually remaining stable over many years, whereby reliable and predictable recurrence of tourists has formed the economic base for the development of the tourist industry and that tourism, therefore, is naturally seasonal.

This predictability of seasonality makes it possible for businesses, lenders and investors to anticipate many of its impacts.

The phenomenon of seasonality in the case of Mediterranean tourism can be determined conceptually as the time divergences that a tourist destination presents from the conventional time limits of tourist period which begins in April and finishes in October, while the tourist markets behaves uniformly.

Annual business operation regarding the seasonal pattern can be classified into annual intervals, seasons.

Classification1: One peak season Two peak season Non peak season

Classification2: Off season (January, February, November and December) Shoulder season (March, April, May, June, October) Peak season (July, August, September)

Classification3:

Low season (January, February, November and December) Mid season (March, April, May, October) High season (June, July, August, September)

Causes of seasonality

Natural seasonality, as the name implies, relates to regular and recurring temporal variations in natural phenomena, particularly those associated with climate and the seasons of the year including:

air temperature,

water temperature,

sunlight,

snowfall,

rainfall,

extreme temperature,

daylight,

humidity,

wind and

geographical location (costal, alpine, urban, peripherial regions).

NATURAL CAUSES OF SEASONALITY

Natural seasonality associates with annual seasons and especially affects remote and peripheral destinations with big temperature differences between the seasons.

Destinations with warm and cold climate are exposed to seasonal changes, due to different activities offered for tourists depending on climate and season.

Travellers have specific preferences which makes it necessary to distinguish between different types of tourism (bathing-, hiking- or ski vacations).

For instance, a beach resort is preferred by a tourist who wants to enjoy sunlight and water sports.

Whereas a ski resort is favoured by skiers or travellers who are eager to see beautiful snow scenery.

Variations in natural factors mean that tourist regions have different seasonal potential and resources and thus are perceived to have particular seasonal qualities.

Problems caused by seasonality are therefore most difficult to overcome at high-latitude destinations.

As the majority of outdoor tourism activities rely on natural ‘climate-dependent’ attractions, the extent of tourist activity in a natural area is dependent on weather and climate.

Destinations relying on predominantly outdoor facilities are thus most likely to experience a pronounced influence of natural seasonality on their tourism businesses.

Examples are coastal resorts and countryside attractions, where the actual pattern of tourist activities is strongly weather dependent.

Climate is particularly important in attracting visitors, it is often considered as a constraint to tourist development.

Seasonal variations caused by these natural factors are predictable as they are relatively stable in a particular destination, and recur with only small changes.

Although natural factors can make a destination unattractive to particular markets, they are not the sole reason for variations in tourism demand.

Global warming and the trend towards warmer weather might cause a shift in the attractiveness of tourist destinations around the globe.

Climatic change will make some revision of tourist seasons necessary.

Institutionalised seasonality is more complex as it is based on human behaviour and consumer decision making (e.g. deciding on the timing of holidays) and results from religious, social, cultural, ethnic and organizational factors and policies.

Institutionalised seasonality include:

holidays (school, university, work, public, religious) and

sociological and economical factors.

INSTITUTIONAL CAUSES OF SEASONALITY

Institutional factors reflect the social norms and practices of society.

Unlike the natural seasonality, dates of institutionalized seasonality can be established more precise, as it often corresponds with school or public holidays, religious events or pilligrimage, celebration or conduction of various events and festivals, etc.

In addition to natural and institutional seasonality, some other causes could be considered:

Hosting time of sporting event - e.g. the Olympic Games, World Cup, and Commonwealth Games.

Sporting season - hunting season, skiing, surfing or golf. These activities require a combination of climatic and physical factors, along with the necessary infrastructure.

Inertia, tradition and travel habits of travellers – travellers continue to travel at a specific time of the year even though they are no longer restricted to this particular period. Many people take holidays at peak seasons because they have always done so, and old habits tend to die hard.

ADDITIONAL CAUSES OF SEASONALITY

Social pressure and fasion - to participate in specific activities at certain destinations at particular times of the year. This includes socialising in some capitals at certain times, breaks at spas or spending the winter season at certain fashionable destinations.

Calender effects - variability of the number of days in a

month, weekends in the month, quarter, season or year. Leisure tourism is mostly concentrated on weekends, especially in the shoulder and off-peak seasons. These calendar effects would suggest that seasonality should be evaluated on the basis of weekly rather than monthly data.

As the mentioned factors can combine in one destination, they form so-called push and pull-factors, building the picture of destination.

Institutional

Inertia and tradition

Social pressure and fashion

Calendar effects

Sociological and economical factors

Push-Factors at generating area

Climate in receiving area

Sporting season

Events

Pull – Factors at receiving area

The organised mass tourism that is transported in the destinations of Mediterranean has mainly as a motive the sun, the sea and the sand in order to choose the place of their holidays. So, it is expected to prefer, that months with the most favourable weather conditions that allow them to enjoy the elements of their preference.

The tourist supply in the islander and coastal destinations has been created territorially and functionally in such a way and with these specifications that corresponds almost exclusively in the needs and pleasures of tourism of summer holidays.

Social framework in terms of paid holidays is organized in such a way that the big masses of population that constitute the organised tourism are mainly directed during the peak season, which is considered the time period where work permits are given. The lack of concern that the organizers of travels have in the problem of seasonality, as far as the lengthening of tourist period is concerned.

What are the determinants that appear to influence tourist seasonality?

The problem of tourist seasonality is real and becomes more intricate with the repercussions that causes in the entire spectrum of tourism.

This is the reason that the confrontation of this problem presupposes awareness from all the involved institutions and mobilisation of the factors that are related with tourism in order to plan the lengthening of the tourist period, having as a future objective the growth of tourism in all seasons.

In order to tackle the seasonality problem in a destination, it is important to realize where seasonality is generated.

Even though considerable efforts were made to change seasonal patterns, there was less effort to understand the fundamental causes of seasonality.

Some Mediterranean (or even tropical) “sun-and-sea” destinations have their peak season in summer where seaside tourism can be practiced, but suffer in the rest of the year, even if their climate is favourable.

How come...?

Implications of seasonality

Seasonality is an uncontrolled situation resulting in a number of negative effects.

Most of the literature describes seasonal variations in tourism activity as a number of negative effects on the destination and in the economy of that particular region or country.

The impacts and implications have been explored from both the supply-side (i.e. tourism operators, employees and residents of the destination locale) and the demand-side (i.e. tourists) perspectives of seasonality.

The impacts have become greater with the growth of mass tourism. This is due to the fact that the number of enterprises depending on tourism has increased and tourism businesses have expanded in size, while the ability to adapt to changes in demand has been reduced.

Main concern about seasonality focuses on the effective planning and use of resources during the off-peak period, the peak period which is taken as granted also needs particular attention, because the facilities during the peak period may become too crowded and this may cause difficulties in term s of maintaining service quality and satisfying tourists.

The impacts of seasonality vary considerably with the location of the destination and the location of the tourism enterprises within a destination, reflecting in part the variety of physical conditions and the nature of the attractions.

The most specialised destinations are usually the most seasonal and that tourist destinations supported by large urban centres, due to a more diversified demand, experience a less pronounced degree of seasonality.

Implications of seasonality

Economic impacts

Employment impacts

Ecological impacts

Socio-cultural impacts

The economic impacts of seasonality relate mostly to problems in the off-peak periods, particularly the loss of profits due underutilization and to the inefficient use of resources and facilities.

Economic impacts

Negative impacts Positive impacts

Attaining seasonal revenues Maintenance work on buildings

Low returns on capital investment

Budget management/cash flow

Problems with cowering annual fixed costs

Difficult to attract investors

Shortage of capacity in peak season

Underutilization of facilities in off-peak season

Seasonal employment affects the economy, the employees and the local community, and is therefore considered separately from the other impacts.

Employment impacts

Negative impacts Positive impacts

Lack of job demand in off season Employment of students and house-wives

Unstable labor market Part-time word as additional income for locals and others

Recurring and retaining full-time staff

Staff relations and skills remain minimal

Seasonal work is less “meaningful”

Increase of training costs for labour force recruited on seasonal basis

Increase in payment

Lack of career opportunities

Negative impacts Positive impacts

Congestion of natural areas Resources recovery

Disturbance of wildlife

Ecological carrying capacity

Air pollution

Sewage disposal problem

Exhaustion of natural resources

Ecological impacts

• Ecological impacts are largely synonymous with the negative effects occurring due to the concentration of visitors during the peak season at a destination.

Socio-cultural impacts include not only the effects of seasonal variations on the host community but also on the visitor.

Community socio-cultural impacts

Socio-cultural impacts

Negative impacts Positive impacts

Congestion Local people get back their normal life styles

Crowded streets Full use of local amenities and facilities for local people

Noise Community relief from stress

Slower traffic

Lack of parking

Queues for services

Significant increases in the costs of community services

Increased risks of accidents

Quality of life

Disruption of local tradition

Social carrying capacity

Visitor socio-cultural impacts

Negative impacts Positive impacts

Reduced enjoyment due to overcrowding at attraction sites

Lack of capacity during peak season

Closure of facilities and attractions in off season

Lack of quality service

High prices – cost spreading

Pressures on transport systems and infrastructure

Tourist destinations must learn ‘how to live with strong seasonality’?!

There is a difference in groups of tourism benefits sought across seasons.

Therefore it is important to understand specific benefits needs of each season and fully satisfy them during the period when destination marketers want to draw more tourists.

By reducing seasonality, it is expected to maximize customer satisfaction over a year, and to raise the utilization level of facilities more efficiently during both off-peak and peak seasons.

Strategies to reduce seasonality

As there is an element of predictability associated with seasonality it is possible for managers to anticipate many of its impacts and to implement strategies to adjust to any negative effects.

Strategies that are specific to the issue of seasonality are mainly driven by geographic location and climate concerns (i.e. seasonal weather changes).

The ability to extend the season or to introduce a second season is largely dependent on the location and competitiveness of the destination, e.g. remote and peripheral areas may encounter difficulties when trying to develop an all-year season tourism product.

In order to implement counter-seasonal strategies successfully it is important that consumers are aware of the advantages, and availability, of off-peak season holidays.

Even though seasonality will never be totally eliminated, there are numerous ways to even out the peaks and troughs.

Efforts in reducing seasonal peaks, the seasonal range has in fact increased in many countries with the rapid growth of tourism, which seems to ‘swamp’ any efforts to redirect visitation into quieter periods of the year.

There are many strategies that are used to address the effects of seasonality.

The three main demand matching strategies are:

increase demand outside the peak season,

reduce demand in the peak season and

redistribute demand.

At both the destination and enterprise levels, there are several general strategies that are used to increase demand outside peak season, including:

Differential Pricing

Diversified Attraction (changing the product mix)

Market Diversification

Selective forms of tourism

Facilitation by the state

Increase demand outside peak season

Group booking offers (e.g. retirees).

Seasonal (or promotional) pricing (e.g. discount or free offers) in off season period, while high pricing in peak season.

Both pricing strategies have their own target markets. For example, retired people are likely to be interested in special price in an off-peak season because they relatively have much free time in comparison to business persons or students. On the other hand, some people who have to spend their holiday during traditional peak-seasons are willing to buy tickets even if the price is relatively higher than in other seasons.

Financial planning and budgeting to manage fluctuating operational costs (employees and other resources) based on cyclical trends.

Differential Pricing

Pricing differentiation helps increase demand during an off-peak season, and additionally, shifts a minimum demand from a peak-season into an off-peak season.

The main purpose of pricing differentiation is to offset the traditional seasonal fluctuations, not to maximize profits.

Might cause unprofitability and unrentability of business.

The goal is to promote tourism products based on seasonal characteristics.

Diversified multiple-use attractions and resorts.

Wet-weather facilities.

Introduction of new products: special events, festivals, development of incentives for a particular target market, holiday packages, backpacking activities, hot springs and spas, food and wine, niche accommodation, cultural and heritage tourism, park and trail touring, special interest weekends, getaway breaks, health, sport and activity based holidays, or educational tours.

Diversified attraction (changing the product mix)

Diversifying into niche product or service areas (e.g. identifying and matching seasonal motivation with product/serviceor local attraction).

Expanding products via packaging (e.g. special occasion packages for accommodation and restaurants) to encourage greater visitation, repeat visitation or to lengthen stay in order to sustain and expand expenditure to compensate for low seasons.

Product development strategies must be placed within the context of the overall development strategy so that the new products complement and support one another.

Marketing campaigns to attract different markets in different seasons (a multi segment approach).

New or alternative sources of demand for existing products and facilities include, for example, senior citizens, business travellers, incentive and conference market travellers, short break holidaymakers and affinity groups, as these are most able and willing to travel in the shoulder or off-peak seasons.

Determination of the optimal segment mix is necessary.

Market Diversification

Selective tourism occurs in response to the negative implications of mass tourism.

The awareness of the unsustainability of such tourism and the need for tourism demand to separate from a unified tourism package had led to a shift in tourist flows.

The most important characteristic of selective tourism is placing tourists in the focus in shaping the tourist product.

Through dispersion and diversification of tourist supply the tourist product is adapted to smaller groups of tourists, stimulating regional development concepts.

Selective forms of tourism

Selective tourism can be classified:

due to the contents of stay ie. activities (sport and recreation tourism, health tourism and cultural tourism) and

due to the spatial characteristics (rural tourism and ecotourism).

There are a number of strategies which can only be developed and implemented with state and local government or regional and local tourism organisation involvement.

The destination or regionally focused strategies address the broader and more costly issues of infrastructure (roads, signage, amenities, air services), marketing (e.g. branding) and promotion, and developing new attractions and venues.

A number of destination type strategies require partnerships with the private sector (including tourism enterprises).

Facilitation by the state

These strategies are classified under the facilitation by state grouping and include:

staggering of holidays over a longer period; initiatives to increase the labor market and to encourage labor

force flexibility; provision of business support services; provision of loans or subsidies by government to develop

product or local services; provision of tax concession; environmental regeneration initiatives; support off-season community initiatives; improved and expanded regional infrastructure; development of local business networks and partnerships; promotion of tourism in off season;

incentives for development of off-peak season products;

marketing subsidies for all-season products or for all-season client markets;

providing information to operators on products, potential off-season clientele groups or on promotional strategies;

co-ordinating co-operation across tourism sub-sectors to facilitate the development and marketing of attractive off-season packages; and

encouraging attractions and other tourism products to remain open during the shoulder and off-season.

Reductions in demand can be necessary if the number of tourists exceeds the capacities, resulting in reduced visitor satisfaction and low-quality services.

Such measures are required especially when the negative impacts considerably outweigh the positive effects.

Strategies can include an increase in prices or the introduction of entrance fees to protected areas.

Reduce demand in the peak season

Redistribution of demand includes, on the one hand, the transfer of demand from time of excess use to times of low demand and, on the other hand, the spatial spreading of demand at peak times.

Temporal spreading of demand

Seasonalised pricing is practised widely to improve the temporal spreading of tourism demand and off-peak season performance.

Staggering of school holidays over a longer period.

Spreading of domestic holidays into off-peak season and shoulder periods.

Redistribute demand

Spatial spreading of demand

Spatial redistribution of demand at peak times can also reduce the negative impacts of overcrowding.

Strategies include better visitor management techniques and more efficient transport arrangements, including developing and publishing of alternative routes to holiday destinations or the promotion of alternative transport possibilities.

Development of ‘circuits’ of attractions, twin attractions or two-centre holidays, e.g. one week spent at the seaside and one week in the countryside to spread tourists away from congested or ecologically sensitive areas.

Although many strategies are transferable from one industry to another, more detailed research is necessary to investigate the individual strategies in relation to the industry and the impact of these strategies on the different stakeholders and environments at the destinations.

The best-fit strategy should be selected based on a number of dimensions of the supply-side.

The private and social cost of tourism seasonality can be reduced only by common strategies from the public and private actors involved, as working together at all levels, is essential to overcome some of the effects of seasonality.

It should be noted that the effects of strategies to increase the number of tourists in the off-peak periods, even where they have succeeded in doing so, have not always been positive.

At some destinations this has actually led to an increased acuteness of seasonal concentration, as the efforts made to attract tourists in the off-peak season also increased the number of peak season visitors

Dangers in promoting off-peak season tourism on the basis of the image of a destination, as some travellers might be disappointed as a result of poor weather, insufficient entertainment, closed attractions and facilities, inadequate food or unsatisfactory service in hotels as a result of cost cutting.

The key question then is under what circumstances and to what extent can strategies that are effective in one

place be transferred to another?

Move away from General Interest Tourism (GIT) towards Special Interest Tourism (SIT)

desire for more novel, adventurous, and ‘authentic’ forms of tourism experience, social content and the humanization of tourism activities.

Changes in behaviour of demand

due to the change of consumers system of value, standard of life, style of life, affirmation of new needs, mobility and free time change the behaviour of tourist demand and leave possibility for tourist industry to implement these changes in the modern tourist industry, away from “sun-sand-sea” tourism.

Trends in tourism

Technology changes

Information on all tourist services is available virtually from all over the world.

Potential client can be any resident of the world.

Changes in customer service technology and service personalization occur.

Marketing opportunities are expanding.

Demographic changes "Golden Oldies"

According to the United Nations, population ageing is increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of our times. Demographic change impacts directly on tourist demand (volume and structure).

The generation of well situated elderly people goes increasingly on. Vacations this generation is characterized by high disposable income, high amount of free time, independence form seasonal variations in demand for vacations.

Service quality As global competition and market consumption change the expanding

service sector, quality plays an increasingly essential role in both attracting and retaining service customers. Service quality and the degree of satisfaction derived from service quality are becoming the most important differentiating factors in almost every hospitality environment.

Conscious payment of added value

Price and value are significant factors to the more perceptive guests of today. Customers and their perceptions about price have changed. The key word today is "value." Value is what you get compared to what you pay.

Overall increasing payment for vacations., tourists spend specially more during their stay.

Trend to more frequent vacations

Breaking free time into a series of blocks.

Journeys tend to get shorter. The shorter duration of the trips leads to an increase in the number of holidays per year.

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Thank you for your attention!