O U A N TRI I M Q A I M H A N G S. DOAIMH NGHIEP

Oanh gia $i| pMt tf ten tio^t gog tai cluiili vi ma cua o ^ bao^ tbOdog m^ Viet Nam qua muCc dg tilp c^a va &i| Ula vuhig

Trong dieu kien nen kinh te nudc ta hien nay, tdi chinh vi mo (TCVM) Id phdn khiic thi truang rong l&n vd day tiem ndng, co khd nang phdt trien cd ve chdt vd ve lucmg. Kinh nghiem cua rdt nhieu quoc gia tren the giai dd cho thdy, khong chi co cdc to chuc TCVM thudn tuy, md con cd cdc ngdn hdng thuang mai (NHTM) cung cd the phdt trien hogt dong TCVM, tuy nhien muc do thdnh cong khdc nhau. Rieng a nuac ta, nghien cuu hogt dong TCVM cua to chuc tin dung (TCTD) id ngdn hdng chil yeu tap trung vdo hai ngdn hdng cua Nhd nu&c la Ngdn hdng Nong nghiep vd Phdt trien Ndng thdn Viet Nam vd Ngdn hdng Chinh sdch Xd hoi. Su thdnh cong cua cdc TCTD vephdt trien hogt dong TCVM duac ddnh gid qua hai tieu chi ca bdn Id mitc do tiep can khdch hdng vd su ben vUng cua to chitc. Tuy nhien, moi quan he giua mitc do tiep can ciia khdch hdng v&i su ben viing ciia to chitc, vd nhdn to ndo dnh huang den phdt trien hogt dong TCVM tgi TCTD Id NHTM?J^ghien cicu du&i day nhdm trd lai cho cdu hoi ndy de tit do lua chon ddu tu nguon Mc tucmojcimg nhdm phdt trien hogt dong ndy.

TS. NGUYiN MANH HUNG, TS. LE THANI TAM, NCS. PHAM BlCH LIEN

QUAN TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIE >4 Tli khda: tai chinh vi mo, ngdn hdng thucmg mgi, mice do tiip can, tinh ben vimg

1. Tdng quan v^ phat trien ho^t dong tai chi'nh vi md

1.1. Tdi chinh vi mo vd vai tro ciia tdi chinh vi mo =^ ai chinh vi md la vide

cung cap cac dich vu tai chinh nhu tidn giri, cbo vay,

IX dich vu thanh toan, chuydn tien va bao hidm cho ngudi

ngheo va hg gia dinh co thu nhap thap va cac doanh nghiep nhd (ADB, 2000). Thdng qua cac nghidn ciiu ly thuydt (Ledgerwood, 1999; Morduch va cac cong sy, 2003), ciing nhu cac trudng bgp nghidn ciiu cu thd (Khandker, 1998; Nguyen Kim Anh va cdng sy, 2011; Nguyen Kim Anh va Le Thanh Tam, 2013), tai chinh vi md dugc danh gia la ddng vai trd hdt siic quan trpng ddi vdi vide phat tridn kinh te- xa hgi, dac biet la cdng cudc giam ngheo ddi thdng qua cung cap dich vu tai chinh chinh thiic, ban chinh thuc den vdi khach hang vi md- nhihig ddi tugng cd nhu cau nhung khd tiep can vdi dich vy nay trong xa bgi.

1.2. Phdt trien hogt dgng tdi chinh vi mo tgi to chicc tin dung Viec phat tridn tai chinh vi md chi phu hgp vdi mpt sd md bmh cu thd, theo Ledgerwood (2001), mdt td chiic tui dung chi cd thd tham gia thanh cdng thi trudng tai chinb vi md neu thyc hien dSy dii 12 nguyen tac CO ban'. Cac binh thiic ^ 12 nguyen tac chi ti4t g6m: (1) Dam

cung cap dich vu tai chinh vi md cd hidu qua bao gdm (i) cung cap true tidp tren mang ludi cac chi nhanh cua ngan hang, (ii) dya nhidu hon vao cac td chiic trung gian, boat dgng gidng nhu ngan hang ban budn han ban le, (iii) thanh lap cac quy kinh doanh, cac quy nay cd thd nhan dupe sy trg giiip vd cdng nghe va vdn tir ngan hang dd thidt lap nhirng bd phan cho vay vi md. Theo Nghidm Hdng San (2006), cac TCTD dac bidt la IMHTM thudng phat tridn da dang hda boat dpng theo myc tidu bdn vimg hem la tang miic dp tidp can ddi vdi khach hang, va didm xuat phat cua hp trong thdi ky dau (thdi ky non tre) vd tinh bdn viing d miic cao nhat do myc tieu dau tidn cua cac NHTM phai la ben vftng ve tai chinh. De danh gia sy phat trien boat ddng cua cac td chiic tai chinh vimo, theo CGAP (1997), Yaron (1998), mdt ndn tang danh gia pbat tridn hoat ddng dugc dua ra bao gdm 2 tieu chi: Mirc dp tidp can dat dupe trong nhdm khach hang myc

bao su quan ly thich hep; (2) Xac djnh chien lipp'c va muc tieu cua to chiFC, {3} Hoc hoi tLF su canh tranh a khu vuc I<h6ng chinh thiic; (4) Tim ra nhOng dich vu nao Ichach hang thuc sy c4n; (5) Thiet lap hinh thCrc phan ph6i hop ly, (6) Trang trai chi phi giao djch; (7) Trang trai chi phi vai ty I? lai su§t cho vay du'cng hop ly; (8) Nhi>ng khoan vay theo don dat hang va dilu kien cho muc tieu khach hang, (9) Quan sat va duy tri chM luong tai san, (10) Quan ly va da dang hoa rui ro; (11) Huy dpng ngu6n tilt kiem trong thi trLFong; va (12) Khuyin khich nhan vien va dau tLf vao dao tao nhan vien Nguon: Legdenwook (2001).

tieu va kha nang ty ben virng ciia td chiic. Day du nhat la quan diem ciia Zeller (2002) chi ra rang can phai danh gia sy phat tridn cac td chiic tai chinh vi md dya trdn 03 myc tidu: (1) Tidp can vdi ddi tugng khach hang vi md, (2) ben viing tai chinh, (3) anh hudng ciia boat ddng (myc tidu xa hgi).

L3. Moi quan he giita m^c do tiep can vd tinh ben vung Cd mdt sd quan didm khac nhau vd mdi quan he giiia tinh bdn virng tai chinh va muc dp tidp can khach hang vi md. Theo mpt sd nghien cuu {Christen va cac cdng sy 1995; Otero va Rhyne 1994), dupe trich dan trong Zeller (2002)), md rdng tidp can giup ben vUng tai chinh vi miic do tiep can khach bang cang tang theo nguydn ly kinh te quy md, do do giam chi phi giao dich va giiip td chiic ben virng tai chinh. Mat khac, Hulme (1996) lap luan rang cd mdi quan he ngugc chieu giiia tiep can va tinh bdn viing tai chinh, kbi miic do tiep can khach hang cao han cd nghia la chi phi giao dich cao ban nham cd dugc thdng tin tin dyng ciia khach hang va do dd lam cho td chiic TCVM khdng ben vihig ve mat tai chinh. Quach Manh Hao (2005), cung de cap ddn mdi quan he ngupc chidu giira tiep can va ty ben vimg tai chinh, td chiic tin dung cd xu hudng dam bao "md rdng tiep can khach bang tbi trudng muc tieu tren ca sd ty ben virng tai chinh" nham dat dugc

IHiNG 11.2015-S6162 \? CHI KHOA HQC & BAO TAO NGAN HAh 51

^ l l S UAN TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIEP

myc tieu bdn virng dai ban. o Muc dp tiep can Theo Yaron va cae cdng sy (1998), Zeller (2002), mirc dp tidp can dugc dinh nghia la kha nang cua mgt TCTD cung cap dich vu tai chinh chat lugng cho mdt sd lugng ldn cae khach hang, dac biet la cac khach hang vi md. Chi tieu miic dp tidp can dugc do ludng thdng qua hai gdc dp: Dp rpng va do sau cua tiep can. Dp sau tidp can dd cap den miic cbo vay trung binh ma cae khach hang vi md dugc phyc vy, trong kbi dp rgng tidp can dd cap ddn sd lugng khach hang myc tieu cua mdt td chiic TCVM.

Do rgng tiep can: Theo Yaron (1998), neu sd lugng khach hang tang ca ve con sd tuyet ddi va tuong ddi (miic dp tang trudng), TCTD dd da dat dugc mirc tiep can rdng hem ddi vdi khach hang. Cac gia tri tang trudng tuyet ddi va tuong ddi cua du ng tin dung va tidt kidm cung cho kdt luan tuong ty ve dp rdng trong tiep can cua TCTD. Do rdng trong tiep can cua TCTD la miic dp tiep can ddi vdi khach hang tren didn rdng, dugc danh gia thdng qua sy da dang hda trong san pham dich vu cung ling; sd lupng va miic dp tang trudng ciia khach hang, eiia du ng tin dyng va tiet kiem. Sd lugng san pham dich vu cung ling cang ldn, mirc dp tang trudng qua cac nam hoac mdt thdi ky cang tang chirng td dich vu ciia TCTD da dang (Zeller, 2002).

Do sdu tiep can: Cac chi tidu cho dp sau tidp can la gia tn vay tmng binh tiic la Tdng du np cho vay trung binh chia cho sd lugng khach hang vay (Woller va Schreiner, 2000). Lensink, Meesters va Hermes (2008) dinh nghia miic cho vay la dai dien cbo dp sau ciia phan vugt trdi (dugc trich dan trong Olivares- Polanco (2005)). Quy md khoan vay ldn han thudng cd nghTa la lgi nhuan nhieu ban cho TCTD nhung dp sau tidp can ddi vdi khach hang vi md it han. Vi cac chi tieu do ludng dp sau ciia tidp can true tidp thdng qua sy thay ddi rdng cua gia tri thu nhap va tai san khach hang sau kbi tidp can dugc vdi dich vy tin dung rat khd xac dinh. Trong khi dd, khach hang ciia TCTD cung iing djch vy TCVM cd nhiing dac trung ca ban, mirc dp tiep can den cac nhdm khach hang thu nhap thap rat quan trpng, vi vay, cac chi tidu gian tidp dan gian hem duge sii dung de do ludng dp sau ciia tidp can tdi cac nhdm khach hang muc tieu ciia cac TCTD cung irng dich vu TCVM bao gdm: (i) Mii-c vay trung binh Miic vay trung binh thap nghTa la nhieu khach hang cd thu nhap thap da dugc vay tai TCTD, vi ddi vdi cac khach hang nay, nhu can vay vdn thudng cd gia tri thap. Quy md mdn vay trung binh/GDP binh quan dau ngudi dugc coi nhu mdt chi tieu dimg dd so sanh do sau cua tidp can den cac khach hang cua mpt

TCTD trdn tam qudc td. Ndu xet trong mot qudc gia, cd thd chi can quy md mdn vay trung binh. Gia tri nay cang thap chiing td miic dp tidp can ciia TCTD cang sau. (ii) Ty le ng qud hgn/tong du ng vd ty le ngxdu/tong du ng Hai nhdm ty le nay phan anh chat lugng boat dpng tin dung ddi vdi TCTD. Cac ty le nay cang thap, chiing td chat lugng boat ddng tin dung cang cao, dp sau tiep can tdt. Trong dieu kidn TCTD md rgng hoat ddng tdi nhidu nhdm khach hang khac nhau vdi quy md tang trudng, ndu ty Id ng qua han cao chiing td TCTD do khdng dat yeu cau ve md rdng boat ddng. Ty Id ng xau phan anh tdt ban chat lugng tin dung, vi da xet tdi kha nang thu hdi np ciia TCTD. Ty Id nay cang nhd cang tdt, va thdng Id qudc te d miic 3% la chap nhan dugc. o Tinh ben viing Cac ly thuyet khac nhau deu ghi nhan rang sy bdn viing tai chinh la mdt trong nhirng nhan td ma cbiing ta can phai dya vao de danh gia hieu qua boat dpng cua cac TCTD. Tinh ben viing tai chinh la kha nang tao ra cac ngudn lyc can thiet dd dat dugc sy ben vftng ve the che va boat ddng. Zeller (2002) luu y ring nhftng khach hang vi md can phai cd quyen tidp can vao dich vu tai chinb tren ca sd lau dai chii khdng phai chi la mpt sy bd trg tai chinh nhat tbdi. Vide khdng bdn vftng vd tai chinb trong cac TCTD phat sinh do ty le ng qua ban/ np xau tang, hoac

52 )P CHi KHOA HQC & DAO TfO NGAN HAt. Sfi 162-IHiNG 11.2015

QUAN TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIE su4 nguon yon khdng dam bao. Tinh ben viing dugc do bSng cac ty le ty bdn viing va cac he sd sinh Idi. Ddi vdi TCTD, cd bai chi tidu thd hien tinh bdn viing tai chinh ma chiing ta cd the quan sat trong vide danh gia hidu qua cua TCTD la lgi nbu^n trdn tdng tai san (ROA) phan anh kha nang ciia td chiic dd tridn khai tai san sinh loi. Cac TCTD dupe nghien ciiu la cac NHTM khdng cd ngudn ttg cap ndn cac chi sd thu nhap rdng trdn tdng tai san binh quan ROA (cdn dugc ggi la ROAA) dugc su dyng dd danh gia sy ben vung. Ty le nay cang cao, chiing td kha nang sinh Idi cua TCTD trdn mdt ddng gia tri tai san cang ldn.

2. Md hinh nghidn cii-u va cac gia thuydt Md hinh do Christen (1995) va Thys (2000) phat tridn la md hinh vd mdi quan he gifta muc do tiep can va tinh ben viing cua TCTCVM sir dyng phuang phap phan tich hdi quy binh quan nhd nhat OLS. Md hinh trdn dugc Olivares-

Polanco (2005) kiem dinh iai va khang dinh cd sy anb hudng ciia sy ben vftng ddn miic do tidp can ciia TCTCVM va ben cgnh do cdn co cdc nhdn to dnh huang den muc do tiep can Id loai binh TCTCVM, thdi gian boat dgng, dp rdng tidp can, kha nang canh tranh, gidi tinh khach hang va phuang phap cap tin dung. Trong nghien ciiu nay, md binh trdn dugc dieu chinh phu hgp vai cdc TCTD tgi i Viet Nam. Nghien cicu tap \ trung vdo viec phdn tich (i) miic dp tidp can, (ii) sy ben viing tai chinb va cac , bien ddc lap khac. Mo hinh 1. Mo hinh phan tich dp sdu tiip can nhin nhgn tir cdc TCTD Phan anh mdi quan he phy thudc gifta nhan td Do sau tidp can (ALB) vai cac nhan td ddc lap gdm Thdi gian boat dpng tinh theo thang (Age); Sy ben vung ciia td chirc (SUS); Dp rgng ciia tidp can (NOB);

Hinh 1 (Md hinh 1)

Nang suat lao ddng (LP) va Riii ro tin dung (Risk). Mo hinh 2. Mo hinh phan tich su ben vimg nhin nhgn tic cdc TCTD Phan anh mdi quan be phu thudc gifta nhan td Sy ben virng eiia td chiic (ROA) vdi cac nhan td ddc lap gdm Thdi

Logi bidn

Bidn phu thupc

Bien dpc lap

Ban

• ^ Tdnbi^n ^ '

Op sau tiep can (gia tri trung binh khoan vay)

Dja ban

Thdi gian hoat dpng cue td chuc

Sy b^n vftng cua to chuc

Dp rpng cua ti6p can

Nang sucit lao dpng

Rui ro tin dung

g 1 . M o ta cac bien trong M o hinh 1

Ma

ALB

Area

Age

Sus

NOB

LP

Risk

.'iZ'.':^^^ '"^". '..:,"" Cach do

Du np cho vay KHCN/Tong sd khach hang ca nhan cho vay

Bidn gia dia ban cua td chu'C Bi ln gia b ing (=) 1 n l u thudc Ha Npi, b ing (=) 2 neu thudc khu vuc phia B i c (tru Ha Ndi), b ing (=) 3 n l u thupc Duyen hai B l c bd, b ing (=) 4 n l u thudc mi ln Trung, b ing (=) 5 n l u thupc TP. Ho Chi IVIinh, b ing (=) 6 n l u thudc mi ln Nam (trip TP. Hd Chi Minh)

Tinh tu nam thanh lap den nam dupe nghien cO-u

LNTT/TTS binh quan

So lupng khach hang ca nhan vay vdn

S6 lupng khach hang tren mdi can bp khach hang quan ly

Do ludng b ing ty le np xau/tdng du no

IHiNG 1U015-so 162 AP CHI KHOA HQC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN 53

^ J i S • U A N TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIEP

Loai b i ln

Bien phu thudc

Bien ddc lap

Bang 2. Ten b i ln ^

Sy ben vung

Loai to chuc

Thdi gian hoat ddng

Dp rdng ciia t i l p can

Rui ro tin dung

Muc dp canh tranh

Ma

ROA

Type

Age

RPL

Risk

COM

Md ta cac M e n t r o n g M o h i n h 2

c chdo jm p " - — ^ Kha nang sinh Idi cua Tong tai san (ROA = LNST/TTS binh quan)

Bi ln gia, = 1 n l u hien tai hoac t i ln than la Ngan hang Nha nudc hoac phan Idn la sd huu cua Nha nudc, =0 N l u khdng phai.

Tinh tLF nam thanh lap cua to chu'C d i n nam dugc nghien ci iu

Ty trpng du ng khach hang ca nhan/ Tong du ng

Do ludng b ing ty le np xiu/tong du ng.

Do ludng b ing thj ph in cua cac TCTD. Thj phan cang cao, miic dp canh tranh cang thap.

gian hoat ddng tinh theo thang (Age); va Rui ro tin dung (Risk); Dp rdng cua tidp can (RPL); Muc dp canh tranh (COM). o Cdc gid thuydt (GT) GT H1: Thdi gian hoat dgng ciia td chirc (Age) cd anh hudng ciing chidu den dp sau tidp can (ALB) GT H2: Sy bdn vung cua td chuc (SUS) cd anh hudng cung chieu den dd sau tidp can (ALB) GT H3: Dp rpng tidp can (NOB) cd anh hudng ngupc chidu den do sau tidp can (ALB) GT H4: Nang suat lao ddng (LP) cd anh hudng ciing chidu ddn do sau tiep can (ALB) GT H5: Rui ro tin dung (Risk) cd anb hudng ngugc chidu ddn dp sau tiep can (ALB) GT H6: Thdi gian hoat ddng cua td chiic (Age) ed anh hudng ngugc chidu den sy bdn vftng (ROA) GT H7: Rui ro tin dung (Risk) ed anb hudng ngugc chidu ddn sy ben vung (ROA) GT H8: Kha nang canh tranh (COM) cd anh hudng cimg chieu den sy ben vimg (ROA) GT H9: Dp rdng tidp can

(RPL) cd anh hudng cung chidu den sy ben viing (ROA) GT HIO: Cd sy khac biet giua cac TCTD cd dia ban khac nhau ve dp sau tidp can cua TCTD.

3. Phirong phap nghidn cihi va mau 3.1. Phuang phdp nghien

cuu Sir dung phuong phap nghien cihi dinh tinh kdt hgp phuang phap nghien ciiu dinh lugng nham dua ra nhiing nhan dinh cd tinh CO sd va sd lieu minh chiing. Phuang phap nghien cuu tai lieu, nghien ciiu dinh tinh, phdng van chuyen gia de dua ra nhiing nhan dinh mang tinh ly thuyet ve mdi quan he trong md hinh nghien ciru. Sii dung phuang phap dinb lupng qua phan tich sd lieu tir cac bao cao tai chinh da dugc cdng bd cua cac TCTD. Sii dung phuang phap phan tich thong kd, cdng cu kinh td lugng dd danh gia, xac dinh sy anh hudng ddi vdi cac mdi quan he trong md hinh.

3.2. Mdu nghien cicu De danh gia mdi quan he giiia sy phat tridn ben virng va dp sau tidp can ciia TCTD dugc nghien ciiu kidm dinh trdn 2

mau: Mdu 1: Nghidn ciru trudng hgp LienVietPostBank vdi mau la cac chi nhanb ciia Ngan bang nay. Day la TCTD cd chien luge pbat trien boat ddng TCVM tren ea sd lgi the ve mang ludi sau khi sap nhap vdi Cdng ty Dich vu Tiet kiem Bmi didn eiia Tdng Cdng ty Buu chinb Viet Nam nam 2011, td chirc nay la NHTM cd phan cd chinh sach cu the trong cac boat dgng buy ddng va boat ddng cho vay nhu dieu kidn quy trinh, thii tue cho vay, tai san bao dam,... va cac dich vu cung cap khac mdt each rd rang ve boat ddng TCVM va nham myc tieu lgi nhuan ben eanh muc tieu xa hdi^ Mdu 2: Nghien ciiu 15 NHTM

^ "Chi nhanh la dan vj phu thugc cua Ngan hang thucng mai, hgch toan phu thuoc, CO con diu, co nhiem vu thyc hi$n mpt hogc rngt so chuc nang cua ngan hang thuo'ng mgi theo quy ^nh cua Phap luat" (Thong ttf s6 21/2012/TT-NHNN ngay 09/9/2013 quy djnh vk mgng ludi hogt dong cua ngan hang thuo'ng mai) Tai LienVietPostBank, moi chi nhanh diu du'O'c thuc hien day dO cac hoat dong trung gian tai chinh va cung cap TCVM, trong phgm vi nghien cuu cua Luan an, hogt dpng cho vay la hoat dong truyen thong va mang Igi thu nh$p ldn nhat tai moi chi nhanh dugc tap trung nghien cuu.

54 4P CHI KHOA HQC & DAO T^O NGAN HA Stfl62-IHAHG 11.2015

QUAN TRI NGAN HANG & DOANH NGHIE '•I* Hinh 3. Sir phu hffp ciia Mo hinh 1

CMIN: 12*002; DP' 6; P' .062, CMIN/DF 2.000 RMR. .000; GFI'.963; AGFI=.963 NFI:.856; RFI .640; IFI=,922; TLI=.781, CFI; 912 RMSEA-.037; PCLOSE: 041

ldn nhat cd quy mo Tdng tai san dat tu 100 nghin ty trd len nam 2013 va 2014.

4. Ket qua nghien cuu 4.1. Ddnh gid suphii hop

cua mo hinh

Trong qua trinh phan tich, tdn tai mdi quan he hdi quy gifta

cac nhan td ddc lap: giua Do rdng tidp can (NOB) vdi Nang suat lao dgng (LP), giira Thdi gian hoat ddng (Age) vdi Sy ben viing (SUS), giua Thdi gian hoat ddng (Age) vdi Riii ro (Risk) va giua Thdi gian boat dpng (Age) vdi Nang suat

Hinh 4. Su- phii hgp cua Mo hinh 2 CMIN: 4.162; DF: 5; P:b26; CMIN/DF: .832 RMR: .000; GFL .948; AGFI=.948 NFI:-836; RFI: .896; IFI=.954, TLI= 964; CFI• 1.000 RMSEA 021, PCLOSE: .031

lao dpng (LP), do vay trong md hinh phan tich, ta phai bidu dien sy tac ddng nay trong md binh phan tich bang mgt quan he bdi quy. He sd phu hgp cmin/df cd cai thien ban (tu 7.779 giam xudng 2.000). Theo danh gia cua Hu va Bentler (1999), vdi md hinh cd df^l 1 bac tu do, cac chi sd CMIN/DF= 2,000; RMR-0.000<0.1; GFI-0.963 va AGFI=0.963 gan vdi 1 chi ra rang dd la mdt md hinh phii hop vdi dft lieu nghien cuu. Cac chi sd danh gia miic dp tdt cua md hinh cho thay: IFI=0.922,TLI=0.88I va CFI-0.912 cho thdy md hinh danh gia rat tdt va hoan toan pbii hgp vdi du lieu quan sat, phan anh diing sy thay ddi va chieu tac dpng cua cae bien quan sat. Vdi miic y nghTa 5% (dp tin cay 95%), gia tri RMSEA=0.037<0.05 va tham sd kiem djnh RMSEA=0.041<0.05 cho thay md hinh hoan toan phu hgp vdi dft lieu nghien ciru va cd y nghia thdng kd khi phan tich. Theo nghien ciiu ciia Hu va Bentler (1999), md hinh hoan toan phii hop khi cac chi sd danh gia md hinh cho ket qua phii hgp. Cu the vdi md hinh cd CMIN=4.162, df-5 bac ty do, cac chi sd CMIN/ DF= 0,832; RMR=0.000<0.1; GFI=0.948vaAGFI-0.948 gan vdi 1 chi ra rang do la mdt md hinh phii hgp vdi dft lieu nghien ciiu.

Cac chi sd danh gia miic dp tdt ciia md hinh cho thay: NFI=0.836, RFI-0.896,

IHANG 112015-SO 162 IP CHI KHOA Hpc & DAO TAO NGAN HAN 5 5

UAN TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIEP

Bang 3. Kdt qua ve mdi quan h? gifl-a c^c bien quan sat chu-a diTtfc chuan hoa

gJV]6i quan he

ALB <— Age

ALB <— SUS

ALB <— NOB

ALB <— LP

ALB <— Risk

R chipa chuan hoa

6055423.309

2229798.654

-195219.603

-1289529.198

-43087499.587

S:E.

970547.21

279793.181

24148.366

526245.426

6459814.329

C.R.

6.239

7.969

-8.084

-2.460

-6.670

Rvalue

.023

040

.016

.015

.024

Bang 4. Kdt qua trong s6 hbi quy chudn hda (he so r)

ti quan hg

ALB <— Age

ALB <— SUS

ALB <— NOB

ALB ^— LP

ALB < - - Risk

Hps I M f l . T* iFM6i quan h$"tiic ddng tryc tid'pTvdi dp tin

cay 95%

Khi thdi gian hoat ddng cua to chiPc tang 1 dan vi chuan thi Dp sau ti^p can tang 0.739 dun vi chuan

Khi sy ben vOng cua td chuc tang 1 dan vj chuan thi 06 sau tidp can tang 0.629 dan vj chuan

Khi dp rdng tiep can cua to chu-c tang 1 don v| chuan thi Dd s§u tiep c$n giam 0 783 dan vj chuan

Khi nang suat lao ddng cua to chuc tang 1 dan v| chuan thi Dd sSu ti6p c$n giam 0.643 dan vi chuan

Khi ty le np x l u cda td chiFC tang 1 dan vj chuan thi Dp sau tiep can giam 0.695 dan VI chuan

Bang 5. Ket qua ve moi quan h^ giira cac bien quan sat chira diTffc chuSn hda

M6i^an hF* ROA <— Age

ROA <— Risk

ROA <— COM

ROA <— RPL

R chu'a ChuIn hoa

-.505

-.726

.529

-.510

S.E.

.007

.058

.018

.014

C.R.

-72 14

-12.52

29.39

-36.43

Rvalue

050

.032

.008

.013

IFI=0.954, TLI-0.964 va CFI=0.100 cho tbSy md hinh dan gia rat tdt va hoan toan phii hop vdi dft lieu quan sat, phan anh diing sy thay ddi va chieu tac ddng eua cac bidn quan sat. Vdi miic y nghTa 5% (dp tin cay 95%), gia tri RMSEA-0.02 K0.05 va tham sd kidm dinh PCLOSE-O.031<6.05cho thay md hinh hoan toan phu hgp vdi du lieu nghien ciiu.

4.2. Ket qud kiem dinh gid thuyet 4.2.1. Ddnh gid moi quan he

giiia cdc bien quan sdt trong Mo hinh 1 Kdt qua tu bang trgng sd hdi quy chua chuan hda, vdi cac gia tn Sig Pvalue <0.05 cho thay mdi quan he gifta cac nhan td cd y nghTa thdng kd vdi do tin cay 95%. Gia su ta coi md hinh phan tich tren la phii hgp vdi du lieu

ta quan sat dugc thi ta cd thd thiet lap md binh tuydn tinh phu thugc nhu sau: ALB = al^ 0.739Age + 0.296 SUS - 0.783 NOB-0.643 LP-0.695 Risk ^^e Dya vao kdt qua phan tich, mftc do tac dpng m inh/ydu ciia cac nhan td den dp sau tidp can cho ta thay nhan td dp rdng tiep can (NOB) cd tac dpng ldn nhat va su bdn viing cua TCTD cd tac dpng it nhat. Nhu vay sy ben viing cua td chiic thdi gian hoat dpng khdng phai la ydu td quydt dinh nhat den chien luge bay dinh hudng boat dgng TCVM phat tridn TCVM ma dp rdng tiep can hay phan khiic khach hang lya chgn va sd luong khach bang vi md tiep can dugc mdi la nhan td cd anh hudng ldn nhat. He sd R2 (Squared Multiple Correlations) = 0.74 cho biet sy thay ddi cua cac bidn ddc lap ed anh hudng den 74% su thay ddi ciia bien phu thupc. NghTa la khi cac bien ddc lap: Thdi gian boat ddng, su ben vimg, dp rdng tiep can, nang suat lao dpng, ty Id ng xau thay ddi thi giai thich dugc 74% sy thay ddi cua do sau tidp can.

Tft Bang 4, Kdt qua trpng sd hdi quy chuan hda cbo ta ket luan vdi cac gia thuyet dat ra ban dau nhu sau: Gia thuyet HI: Thdi gian boat ddng cua td chiic (Age) cd anh hudng cung chidu ddn dp sau tidp can (ALB); Gia thuydt H2: Su bdn vftng cua td chdc (SUS) cd anh hudng cimg chidu ddn dp

56 P CHI KHOA HQC & DAO TfO NGAN HAN SlSl62-THANG 11.2015

QUAN TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIE i | | ^

Bang 6. Kdt qua trong sd hdi quv chuan hoa (he so r)

^^^^^S

ROA <— Age

ROA <— Risk

ROA ^— COM

Moi quan hp tai cnuan noa (ne so r)

nat rtfinn rua In nhi'iir tann Khi thdi gian hoat dOng cua to chuc tang 1 dan vj chuan thi Chi sd danh gia sy ben vung cua to chiic giam 0,445 dan vj chuan

Khi chi so nji ro tin dung cua to chu-c tang 1 iJan vi chuan thi chi s6 danh gt^ sy bdn vung cua td chuc giam 0,635 dan vj chuan

Khi chi so kha nang cgnh tranh cua to chirc tang 1 dan vj chuan thi Chi sd danh gia sy bdn vung cua td chiPc tang 0.598 dan vi chuiin

Khi dp rdng tiep can cua td chuc tang 1 dan vj chuan thi Chi sd danh gia sy ben viing cua to chuc giam 0,705 dan vj chuan

sau tiep can (ALB); Gia thuydt H3: Do rgng tidp can (NOB) cd anh hudng ngugc chidu ddn dd sau tiep can (ALB); Gia thuyet H4: Nang suat lao ddng (LP) cd anh hudng ngugc chidu ddn do sau tiep can (ALB);Gia thuydt H5: Riii ro tin dung (Risk) cd anb hudng ngugc chieu den dp sau tidp can (ALB).

4.2.2. Ddnh gid moi quan he giua cdc bien quan sdt trong Mo hinh 2 Ket qua tir bang trpng sd bdi quy chua chuan hda, vdi eac gia tri Sig Pvalue <0.05 cho thay mdi quan be gifta cac nhan td cd y nghTa thdng ke vdi dp tin cay 95%.

Gia sii ta coi md hinh phan tich trdn la phu hgp vdi dft lieu ta quan sat duge thi ta cd the thiet lap md hinh tuydn tinh phu thudc nhu sau: ROA = al - 0.445 Age - 0.705 RPL-0.635 Risk+ 0.598 COM+e Dya vao ket qua phan tich, muc dp tac ddng manh/ydu ciia cae nhan td den sy ben viing cbo ta thay nhan td dp rpng tidp can (RPL) cd tac dpng ldn nhat va thdi gian boat ddng cua TCTD cd tac dgng it nhat. Nhu vay qua trinh binh thanh va pbat tridn ciia td chuc nhu thdi gian

boat ddng kbdng phai la ydu td quyet dinh nhat den chien luge hay dinh hudng boat dpng TCVM pbat trien ben vftng ma do rdng tiep can bay phan khiic khach bang lya chgn va sd lugng khach hang vi md tiep can dugc mdi la nhan td cd anb huong ldn nhat. He sd R2 (Squared Multiple Correlations) ^ 0.664 eho biet sy thay ddi cua cac bien dgc lap ed anh hudng ddn 66.4% sy thay ddi ciia bidn phy thudc. NghTa la khi cac bidn ddc lap: Dp rdng tiep can, Riii ro tin dung, Kha nang canh tranh, Thdi gian boat ddng thay ddi thi giai thich dugc 66.4% sy thay ddi ciia yeu td bdn viing cua td chuc. Tft Bang 6, Ket qua trpng sd bdi quy chuan hda cho ta kdt luan vdi cac gia thuyet dat ra ban dau nhu sau:Gia thuyet H6: Tbdi gian boat ddng cua td chuc (Age) cd anh hudng ngugc chidu den sy ben virng (ROA);Gia thuydt H7: Rui ro tin dyng (Risk) cd anb hudng ngugc chidu ddn su ben vung (ROA); Gia thuydt H8: Kha

Bang 7. Sy Ichac biet v^ mvc do tac dgng cua mirc do tidp can den sir ben virng giira 02 loai hinh to chvc tin dung

id^TC

NHTMNN

NHTMCP

M6t quan he JbB so r

ROA »— RRL

ROA <— RPL

-.879

.568

M6i quan h§ tac dOng trvc ti6p voi dfl tin cgy 95% ' ^ ^ ^ • ^ • • C ^ '

Khi do rpng t i l p can cua to chuc tang 1 don vj chuan thi Chi s6 danh gia SLF bgn vung cua to chuc la NHTMNN giam 0,879 don vi chuan

Khi do rpng tiep can cua to chuc tang 1 don vj chuan thi Chi s6 danh gia SLF ben vung cua t6 chuc ia NHTMCP tang 0,568 dan vi chu^n

miNt 112015-SO 162 4P CHI KHOA HQG & BAO T40 NGAN HAN' 57

iui 'UAN TRI NGAN HANG S DOANH NGHIEP nang canh ttanh (COMPE) cd anh hudng ciing chieu den sy bdn viing (ROA); Gia thuyet H9: Do rgng tidp can (RPL) cd anh hudng ngupc chieu den sy bdn viing (ROA). Mgt cau hdi khac dat ra la lieu mdi quan be gifta do rgng tiep can va su ben vftng cua td chuc cd khac nhau giua 2 td ehiic la NHTMNN va NHTMCP hay khdng? Dimg phan tich md hinh SEM gifta 2 nhdm quan sat NHTMNN va NHTMCP ta cd ket qua (Bang 7). Tra Idi Gia thuydt HIO: Cd sy khac bidt giua NHTM nha nudc va NHTMCP ve mdi quan he giua do rdng tiep can va sy ben vung. Ddi vdi cac NHTM cd sd hftu ciia Nha nudc chiem phan ldn, duge thanh lap tir rat sdm, tbi phan rpng ldn va it sy canh tranh hem nen do rdng tiep can ddi vai ty trgng du np khach hang ca nhan trdn tdng du ng thudng thap ban. Cac ngan bang nay trong nhirng nam gan day, ng xau anh hudng lan den lgi nhuan vi quy md du ng lan. Ddng thdi, do chien luge phat trien, thi trudng muc tieu, kha nang quan ly, iing dung cdng nghe ban le chua dap ling dugc yeu cau, ndn khi dp rdng tiep can cang tang thi sy ben vimg tai chinh lai cd xu hudng giam.

Ddi vdi cac td chuc la NHTM cd phan vdi thdi gian hoat ddng it han nhung di kem sy ra ddi sau la sy hoc hdi kinh nghiem quan ly va phat tridn cdng nghe tdt hon nen khi dp

rdng tidp can tang thi cang phat trien dugc thi phan hudng den la ban le vdi sd lugng khach hang ca nhan tang ldn, lpi nhuan tang ldn vi phan khiic khach hang nay mang lai bien do lpi nhuan cao ban cac phan khiic khach hang khac, khi tan dung dugc quy md, kha nang sinh Idi tang lam cbo td chuc ben viing ve tai chinb han.

5. Kdt luan Cac quan diem vd phat trien hoat ddng tai chinh vi md tai TCTD cho thay sy phat tridn hoat ddng TCVM cd the dugc phan anh thdng qua bai nhan to: Muc dp tidp can khach bang vi md va phat trien ben vftng. Tft phan tich ve mdi quan he giua nhdm nhan td miic dp tiep can va phat trien ben viing, kdt qua cbo thay: (i) Sy ben vftng cd anh hudng cung chieu ddn dp sau tiep can va (ii) Dp rdng tiep can cd anb hudng ngugc chieu den sy ben viing. Nhiing nhan td anh hudng den do sau tiep can: (i) Dp rdng tidp can, (ii) Tbdi gian boat ddng ciia td chiic, (iii) Riii ro tin dung, (iv) Nang suat lao dgng. Sy tac dpng nhu sau: Do rdng tiep can cd anh hudng ngugc chieu den dp sau tidp can, Thdi gian boat ddng cua td chiic cd anb hudng ciing chieu den do sau tidp can, Rui ro tin dyng cd anh hudng ngugc chieu den do sau tiep can, Nang suat lao dgng cd anh hudng ngugc chidu ddn dp sau tidp can.

Nhirng nhan td anh hudng ddn sy ben viing: (i) Thdi gian

hoat ddng, (ii) Dp rdng tiep can, (iii) Tbdi gian hogt dgng, (iv) Rui ro tin dung, (v) Kha nang canh tranh. Sy tac dpng nhu sau: Thdi gian boat dpng eua to chiic cd anh huang ngugc chieu den sy ben viing. Do rgng tidp can cd anh hudng ngugc chidu ddn sy bdn virng, Rui ro tin dung cd anh hudng ngugc chidu ddn su ben vung, Kha nang canh tranh co anh hudng ciing chidu den sy ben vung.

Trong nhirng th§p ky qua, dua vao thyc tien trien khai tren thd gidi va Viet Nam, TCVM da chiing minh rang ngudi ngheo, nhftng khach hang thu nhap thap, khach hang doanh nghiep quy md nhd, sieu nhd la nhiing khach hang kha thi ciia dich vu tai chinh (DVTC). Kdt qua la bien gidi gifta TCVM truyen thdng va he thdng tai chinh ldn dang trd nen md dan. Ci cap co sd, cac td chiic TCVM dang md rdng tam vdi cua hp, trong khi cac NHTM va cac td chiic TCVM chinb thuc khac dang ngay cang di chuydn vao thi trudng tai chinh vi md de tiep can dugc nhidu khach bang ban nua vdi quy md nhd nhung la nhftng khach hang trung thanh. TCTD hoat ddng bdn viing cd kha nang tang cung cap boat ddng TCVM ddn cac khach hang vi md vdi cac khoan vay cd gia tri thap ban, tidp can sau ban den thi trudng nay, va ngugc lai, khi TCTD tham gia thi trudng tai chinb vi md vdi cac san pham djch vu cho vay dugc thiet kd Hnh boat, quy

58 P CHi KHOA HQC & DAO TftO NGAN HAN SO 162-IHANG 11.2015

QUAN TRI NGAN HANG & DOANH NGHIE !MA mo khoan vay nhd thi cd kha nang tang sy bdn vung. Tuy nhidn, sd luong khach hang vi md cang tang tiic la cang cd kha nang lam giam muc tang

ciia sy bdn vung. Ndu theo dudi muc tidu tidp can qua rdng, tdng chi phi hoat dgng tang ldn, TCTD se khdng dat dupe muc bdn vung can cd.

Ngugc lai, de dat dp ben virng tdt, TCTD phai thyc hidn chpn loc ddi tugng khach hang, vi vay miic dp tiep can se bj han che. •

TAI LIEU THAM K H A O

,. Asian Development Bank (ADB). Microfinance, truy cgp ngdy 25/08/2014: http://www.adb.org/sectors/finance/

microfinance

2. Ddo Vdn Hiing et al (1999), Microfinance Sector in Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam: Asian Development Bank.

3. Ddo Vdn Hiing (2005), Outreach Diagnostic Report. Improving Household Access lo Formal Financial Services

in Vietnam

•^. Hulme, D (1996). Impact assessment methodologies for microfinance: Theory, Experience and better practice

J. Hu, L.T. and Bentler, P.M. (1999), "Cutoff Criteria for Fit Indexes in Covariance Structure Analysis •

Conventional Criteria Versus New Alternatives." Structural Equation Modeling, 6(1), 1-55.

6. Khandker, S.R. (1998), Fighting Poverty with Microcredit: Experience m Bangladesh. NewYork, Oxford

University Press, Inc.

7. Ledgerwood, J (1999), Microfinance Handbook: An Institution and Financial Perspective, The World Bank,

Washington, D.C. 1999

o. Morduch, L , Littlefield, K., and Hashemi (2003), "Is Microfinance an Effective Strategy lo Reach the Millenium

Development Goal? ", CGAP Focus Note. 24, January, 2003

9. Mohamad Sayuti Md. Saleh, Mohamad Rahimi Mohamad Rosman, Nur Khashima Nam (2013), Bank Selection

Criteria in a Customers' Perspective, lOSR Journal of Business and Management (lOSR-JBM).

10 Nghiem Hong San (2006), Efficiency of Rural Financial in Vietnam: Evidencefrom NGO Schemes in the North

and the Central Regions.

11. Yaron, J (1992), Assessing Development Financial Institution: A public Interest Analysis. The World Bank

Disscussion Paper No. 174

12. Yaron. J,. Benjamin, M, Charitonenco, S (1998), "Promoting Efficient Rural Financial Intermediation", The

World Bank Research Observer Vol 13. No 2 (August 1998), P 147-170.

13. Yunus (2005), Expanding Microcredit to Reach the Millennium Development Goal, Grameen Bank, Bangladesh,

Paper for the Conference Microfinance in Vietnam, Hochiminh City, June

14. Zeller, M. (2002), The triangle of rural finance- Finance sustainability, outreach, and impact.

15 Ledgerwood, J. (2001), C6m nang hoat dong tdi chinh vi mo nhin nhdn tir giac do tai chinh vd the che ", duac

dich bdi Trung tdm boi duSmg vd tu vdn ve tdi chinh vi mo - Dgi hoc Kinh te Quoc ddn, Nha xudt ban Thdng ke. Hd

Noi

16. Nguyin Kim Anh vd cdc cong su (2010), "Phdt trien tdi chinh vi mo a khu vuc nong nghiep, nong thon Viet

Nam ", Nhd xudt ban thong ke.

17. Nguyin Kim Anh vd TS. Le Thanh Tdm ciing cdc cong sir (2013), Mirc dp ben virng ciia cdc to chdc tai chinh vi

mo VietNam: Thuc trang va mot so khuyen nghf, Nhdxudtbdn Thongke.

SUMMARY

Assessing the deve lopment of microfinance activities of commerc ia l b a n k s in Vie tnam t h r o u g h

accessibility a n d sustainabi l i ty

In the current economic conditions of Vietnam, microfinance (MF) is a vast market segment with huge

potential, opportunities to develop in both quality and quantity. Experiences from many countries have

shown that not only pure microfinance organizations, but commercial banks also have the ability to promote

IHANG 112015-S(f 162 AP CHI KHOA HQC & BAO TAO NGAN HAN 59

^ IUAN TRI N G A N H A N G S. D D A N H NGHIEP

MF, though with different levels of success. Particularly in Vietnam, the study of MF in ihe banking sector mostly focuses on 2 state-owned banks which are Agriculture and Rural Development Bank (Agribank) and Social Policy Bank. The success of MF development in credit institutions can be evaluated through two basic criteria: customer accessibility and the sustainability of the organization. However, how can these two criteria relate to each other regarding the development ofMF activities tn commercial banks? The purpose of this study is lo discuss and answer this question in order to select and allocate appropriate resources to invest in the development ofMF.

THONG TIN TAC GlA

Nguyen Manh Hung, Tien si

Dan vi cong tdc: Ngan hang Nha nudc Viet Nam Linh vuc nghien ciru chinh: Ngan hang Tmng uang, chinh sach tien te, tin dung ngan hang, quan tri nii ro. Tap chi lieu biiu dd co bdi viet ddng tdi: Tap chi Ngan hang. Tap chi Khoa hpc va Dao tao Ngan hang. Tap chi Thj trudng tai chinh va Tien te, Tap chi Cdng nghe Ngan hang. E-mail: manhhungvba@gmail.com

Ld Thanh Tam. Tien sT

Dan vi cong tdc: Vien Ngan hang- Tai chinh, Dai hpc Kinh te Qudc dan LTnh vuc nghien ciru chinh: NHTM, tai chinh vi md, quan tri nii ro. Tgp chi lieu bieu da co bdi viet ddng tdi: Tap chi Thi tnrdng Tai chinh Tien te. Tap chi Kinh td & Phat trien, Tap chi Ngan hang. E-mail: tamlt@neu.edu.vn; taminhanoi@yahoo.com.vn

Pham Bich Lien, Nghien ciiu sinh

Dan vi cong tdc: Ngan hang TMCP Bmi dien Lien Viet LTnh vuc nghien cuu chinh: NHTM, tin dung ngan hang, tai chinh vi mo. Tap chi lieu bieu da co bdi viet ddng tdi- Tap chi Thi trudng Tai chinh Tidn te. Tap chf Kinh tS & Phat tridn. Tap chi Ngan hang. E-mail: lienpb@lienvietpostbank.com.vn, phambichhen2009@gmail.com

tiep theo trang 72

timg vung, timg nganh nghe. Ben cgnh do, cac td chuc tai chinh vi md can chu ddng trong vide sang tao va phat tridn cac san pham, dich vu phu hgp vdi ngudi ngheo d tung dia phuang, trong timg giai doan. Vide chu ddng md rgng ngudn vdn phuc vy hoat ddng cung can dugc chu trgng. Mpt mat cac td chiic can phat trien hinh thirc kdt hgp cac khoan vay uu dai vdi tiet kiem eua khach hang de tang trudng vdn, mat khac can gan ket vdi boat dgng ciia cac td chuc tin dung, ngan hang khac nhim

tao sy lien thdng ngudn vdn, dam bao cbo cac chuang trinh tin dung vi md. •

tiep theo trang 66

Vdi nhiing thanh tyu kinh td da dat dugc trong thdi gian qua cung nhu dinh hudng phat yien kinh te xa hdi Khanh Hda trong thdi gian sfip tdi cd thd thay, nhu cau ciing nhu tidm nang ve huy dpng vdn ciia he thdng NHTM tai Khanh Hda la rat ldn; va vi the, tinh trang canh tranh gifta cac ngan hang la van de khdng thd tranh khdi. Tuy nhidn, de van dd

canh tranh khdng anb hudng den myc tieu kinh doanh hidu qua, lanh manh va an toan cua toan be thdng ngan bang tren dia ban, thidt nghT, cac ngan hang can hidu diing dugc vi thd, nang lyc va thyc trang cua minh trong boat ddng ciia toan he thdng dd tu do ed eac dinh hudng chidn luge kinh doanh phu hgp. •

60 AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN SO 162-nJANG 11.2015