No Slide Title - UCSD CSE

1 ©2014 TCX Inc

Successful Entrepreneurship

for Microsystems

Rakesh Kumar, Ph.D., Life Fellow IEEE

April 16, 2014

[email protected]

[email protected]

858.945.3758

Teaching assistant – Kashyap Tumkur [email protected]

http://cse.ucsd.edu/~ktumkur

Tutor – Pavan Kumar [email protected]

Course presented at UCSD CSE 190, Spring Quarter 2014

Day 3_2

mailto:[email protected]



mailto:[email protected]

2 ©2014 TCX Inc

Some Market Opportunities

History

…and some food for thought!

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Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20,2013

A Qualcomm View….

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Ref: Qualcomm Stockholder Meeting, March 4, 2014

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Expanding Application Areas


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The Internet of Things (IoT)


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The Skyworks View…

Ref: Skyworks, Investor Presentation 2014

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Digital 6th Sense… Augmentation of human ability

NOW the LOCATION

SENSE the user’s MOTION

SEE the user’s ENVIRONMENT

HEAR the user’s SURROUNDINGS


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Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20, 2013

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Good news for Start-ups!

Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20, 2013

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Market Drivers

Industry Directions & Challenges

History

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Smartphones drive diverse technologies

User Experience

Low Cost

Battery Life Low Power

Compact

Performance Architecture, SW, Design, …

FC + WB stack

TSV + FC stack TSV system stack

More Moore

More than Moore

MEMS Sensors

Ultrabook PCs also drive diverse technologies

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0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year Source: IC Knowledge, ISSCC, TCX

Tra

nsis

tors

per

Ch

ip, M

Min

imu

m F

eatu

re S

ize, u

m

More Moore

…Transistor complexities have doubled every 2 years

System Co.’s – IBM, Hitachi, Sony, Philips, Unisys,…

Semiconductor Co’s – Fairchild, T.I., Motorola, National, Intel, Toshiba, …

Fabless Co.’s

MF µP PC iNet Cellular

+43% / year

Moore’s Law 2x / 12mos…1965-70 2x / 18mos,,,1970-90’s

2x / 24mos…now

-13% / year

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ECONOMIC challenges are threatening

Increased Cost of Capital, R&D, Design

Sources: imec Sematech intel tsmc umc asml

McKinsey & Company 4

Working D

raft -Last Modified 4/18/2011 11:19:18 A

MP

rinted 10/13/2010 8:56:28 PM

|

Costs associated with node progression have been rising significantly

6,700

4,850

4,000

2,500

1,800

1,450

22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm

+36% p.a.

Fab cost

$ Millions

Process development cost

$ Millions

Chip design cost including fabless

overhead costs*

$ Millions

SOURCE: Press Reports; iSuppli; ICKnowledge; GSA; WorldFabWatch; ITRS

Estimated

cost CAGR

Percent

16 18 17 21 25 25

1,300

900

600

400

310250


+39% p.a.

150

100

60

34

24

15


+58% p.a.

* Chip design cost includes product R&D cost (design, verification & photomask) and other fabless costs (overhead, IP licensing, etc.)

>30% ~40% ~60%

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So, if you had an idea, what should you do? …entrepreneurship creation

ElectronicsIdea

End-product

~1300 fabless IC companies worldwide

Software or Board level

product

License IP

Fabless I.C. company

Internal Development

at an IDM

Existing New

Standard, Technology

Market Customer Base

..but, only a very small fraction of fabless start-

ups are successful!!

Opportunities - Entrepreneurial

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Create product that solves a real Customer Problem…

A “must-have” for the customer …a Differentiated solution

Top reasons for failure – Fabless Startups

No customer engagement until it’s too late

Not understanding and meeting customer expectations

Overly aggressive product specifications

The “kitchen-sink syndrome”

Poor management of the Supply Chain

A systematic approach to planning and execution

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Typical ASIC Development Cycle

ASIC DESIGN Proto Prod Ramp Hi Volume

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2

Software α

Software β

Software Prod.

Initial Silicon

Initial Silicon Ramp

Initial Product Ramp

Volume Production

Start Design Tapeout ESProd

HW/SW LaunchQS

FPGA

Ref Board

SW

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The New Focus

Ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOhzUMseaHs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOhzUMseaHs


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Please review the following video:


What are the top 3 learnings from Ash Maurya’s Introductory video?

Why do you consider these important

…a 1-page summary.

HW 4 – Vetting Product Ideas Due on Wednesday, April 23rd





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