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INDUSTRIAL / CORPORATE

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EXPLAINER VIDEO / E-LEARNING / INSTRUCTIONAL

NOGGIN Take A Closer Look (WT) Nature Stringout TRT TBD

VP/Creative Director: Lauren Muir Producer: Emily Heusted / Jennifer Treuting VP Creative Strategy/Editorial: Liza Steinberg Writer: Emily Heusted Project Manager: Draft: v10

Video Audio Title card. Camera ZOOMS way in on title card. Camera zooms out.

VO Hello and welcome to Take a Closer Look! VO Okay, that’s TOO close!

GFX ICONS demonstrate game play.

VO We’ll look at close up pictures of FIVE different things you might find in nature and see if we can guess what they are!

Molly to Camera VO And here to help us guess… ALT: And introducing our special guest star… Molly: Hi! It’s me, Molly! (201) VO Let’s get guessing!

GFX LOWER THIRD: #1 ICON

➡

GFX ICON: Rabbit (Getty Image)

VO That’s super close up! Any idea, Molly? Molly: Hmm… VO It’s so white and so fuzzy. Could it be fur? Molly: No. (giggles) (206) VO Hmm. Let’s take another look.

➡

VO Molly, you were right! Definitely NOT fur! Molly: And look at that! VO It looks like some kind of fuzzy flower. VO Any ideas Molly? Molly: Yep! (202)

VO Great! How about you? Got it yet? VO It’s a dandelion! SFX: Fanfare / Correct Noise

(VIDEO MONTAGE OF DANDELION FOOTAGE) GFX LOWER THIRD: DANDELION GFX: Arrow pointing to small dandelion seed

VO Did you know that dandelions start off yellow THEN turn white and fuzzy as they get older? And each of those bits of white fuzz is connected to a dandelion seed! VO Some people think you can make a wish on a dandelion by blowing off the seeds — like blowing on a birthday candle!

MOLLY to CAMERA

VO: Ready for round two, Molly? Molly: C’mon! (304)

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Note to reader: IID is read “eye-eye-dee”; VIX is read as “vicks”, and SVIX is read as “s-vicks”

Macroeconomic Tail Risks and Asset Prices David Schreindorfer

Abstract

IdocumentthatdividendgrowthandreturnsontheaggregateU.S.stockmarketaremore

correlatedwithconsumptiongrowthinbadeconomictimes.Inaconsumption-basedasset

pricingmodelwithageneralizeddisappointment-averseinvestorandsmall,IIDconsumption

shocks,thisfeatureresultsinarealisticequitypremiumdespitelowriskaversion.Themodelis

consistentwiththemainfactsaboutstockmarketriskpremiumsinferredfromequityindex

options,remainstightlyparameterized,andallowsforanalyticalsolutionsforassetprices.An

extensionwithnon-IIDdynamicsaccountsforexcessvolatilityandreturnpredictability,while

preservingthemodel’sconsistencywithoptionmoments.

Introduction

Optioncontractsalloweconomiststoinferhowinvestorsvaluepayoffsindifferentstatesofnature.Akeyinsightisthatinvestorsarewillingtopayverylargepremiumsforprotectionagainstmarketcorrections.Thisobservationisinformativeaboutpotentialexplanationsoftheequitypremium,becauseitimpliesthatlargenegativestockmarketreturnsmustbeassociatedwithveryhighmarginalutilityfortherepresentativeinvestor.Whilethemacrofinanceliteraturehasmadegreatprogressinlinkingriskpremiumsinassetmarketstomacroeconomicfundamentals,existingframeworksremaininconsistentwiththiswell-knownevidencefromoptionmarkets.Inparticular,Backus,Chernov,andMartin(2011),Martin(2017),andDew-Beckeretal.(2017)showthatleadingassetpricingmodelsfailtoexplainoptionprices,optionreturns,orboth,

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andBeasonandSchreindorfer(2019)illustratethatthemodelsareinconsistentwiththemainsourcesoftheequitypremiumasaresult.

Thispaperproposesaconsumption-basedexplanationforriskpremiumsinaggregatestockmarketsthatmatchesthemainfeaturesofequityindexoptions.Thetheorypredictsthattheequitypremiumpredominantlyreflectsexposuretomacroeconomictailrisk–dropsinconsumptionofthemagnitudetypicallyobservedinrecessions.

Toconnectstockmarkettailriskstotailrisksinthemacroeconomy,themodelreliesontwokeydeviationsfromthecanonicalframework.First,therepresentativeagenthasgeneralizeddisappointmentaversion(GDA)riskpreferences,anaxiomaticextensionofexpectedutility(EU)theorythatresolvestheAllaisParadoxandallowsforasymmetricriskattitudesovergainsandlosses.IshowthatGDApreferencescangenerateahighpriceformacroeconomictailrisks,whilesimultaneouslyrelyingonlowriskaversion.ThispropertystandsinsharpcontrasttoEUriskpreferenceswithlowriskaversion,whichimplythatmoderatelysizedconsumptionshocksareclosetoirrelevantforriskpremiums.1Second,consumptionanddividendsfollowrandomwalkswithinnovationsfromamixturedistribution,wherebothgrowthratesaresubjecttoindependentGaussianshocksandnegativelyexposedtoacommonexponentialshock.Likethebivariatenormaldistribution,mixtureshockscanbecalibratedtomatchtheimperfectcorrelationbetweenconsumptionanddividendsinthedata.Unlikethebivariatenormaldistribution,however,mixtureshocksresultinahighlikelihoodofjointtaileventsinconsumptionanddividends.Ishowthatthisfeaturefindsstrongsupportinthedata.Becausebadnewsforequityholders(lefttaileventsindividends)islikelytocoincidewithhighmarginalutilityfortheGDAagent(lefttaileventsinconsumption),themodelproducesalargeequitypremium.

Similartotherare-disastersframeworkofRietz(1988)andBarro(2006),themechanismIproposebuildsontheintuitiveideathattailrisksareimportantfor

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MEDICAL / PHARMACEUTICAL

PODCAST INTRO SCRIPT The Monterrey Institute of International Studies and the Hayward Family Foundation proudly

present the Environmental Speaker Series – Tonight’s topic – “Seafood Sustainability. Is it real

and is it enough?” This evening, you’ll be listening to a panel discussion with Kim McCoy,

Director of Shark Conservation for the Sea Shepard Conservation Society, Dane Klinger,

Stanford PhD student and former research scientist at the esteemed Blue Ocean Institute,

Cassan Trener, Director of Business Development at Fish Wise, and Jason Scorse, Assistant

Professor at the Monterrey Institute. Recorded live on campus in the Irvine Auditorium,

Tuesday February 24, 2019, this podcast is the 2nd podcast in the Monterrey Institutes 2019

Environmental Series

An excerpt of the AD script of the German version of Inglourious Basterds 10:02:00 (endofmusic,choppingsound)

Inthewarmlightoftheautumnsun.Attheedgeofalargemeadowontopofahillstandsalittlestonecottage.

10:02:08 (1loudchoppingsound)

Nearbyabrown-hairedmanischoppingwood.Nexttohimayoungwomanhangsoutlaundry.Shepauses,listens...(faintcarsound)andspotsapproachingvehicles.(music)

10:02:29 “Papa!”

Themanstaresatthevehicles.Hewearspoorclothes.Twogirlshurryoutofthecottage.Tothem:

10:02:37 „GehtzurückinsHausundschließtdieTür!“Totheyoungwoman:“Julie?”Hesitsdownonthe(chopping)block.

10:02:47 (guitarmusic)

Thevehiclescomecloser:threemotorbikesescortacar.HurriedlyJulierunstoawaterpumpandfillsabowl.Herfathertakesadirtyhandkerchiefandcloseshiseyesforamoment.Thenheglaresatthevehicles.

10:03:07 (pianoandguitar)

Julieputsthebowldowninfrontofacottagewindow.

10:03:12 “Hier,Papa”

Julieputsthebowldowninfrontofacottagewindow.

10:03:12 “Hier,Papa”

Herfatherwipeshisface.Withatiredlookhegetsupandamblestothecottage.

10:03:25 „Danke,meinSchatz.JetztgehzudeinenSchwestern.“Theaxeisstuckintheblock.Julieturnstothedoor.“Nichtrennen”Heglancesinthewindow,thenresolutelypourswateroverhisfaceandhisdirty,rippedshirt.Thevehiclesstopatadistancebehindhimnexttosomecows.

10:03:44 “Jawohl”

fast:AColonelgetsoutofthecar.

10:03:49 “wiesiewünschen,HerrOberst”

TheColonelcrossesthemeadow.

10:03:56 „IchbinPerrierLaPadite.“TheColonelreachesouthishand.„Natürlich.Nachihnen.“Hemakesaninvitinggesture.(door)Inthecottage.LaPaditeandLandastepthroughthelowdoor.Thegirlsarelookingatthemseriously.

Example of an Audio Introduction Audio Introduction for Inglorious Basterds, written by Louise Fryer and Pablo Romero Fresco

Welcome to this audio introduction to Inglourious Basterds, a film written and directed by Quentin Tarantino and released by Universal Studios in 2009. This AI lasts about 9 minutes. The film itself has a running time of 2 hours and 27 minutes.

It was nominated for eight Oscars: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor for Christoph Waltz, and Best Original Screenplay. The film is rated an 18, meaning it is suitable only for persons aged 18 years and over, and contains what the British censor describes as "strong, bloody violence". The DVD is not currently available in the UK with AD.

Inglourious Basterds – the words misspelt I.n.g.l.o.u.r.i.o.u.s. B.a.s.t.e.r.d.s. - is set during the 2nd World War. But while the locations are realistic and characters such as Goebbels, Hitler and Winston Churchill resemble their real-life selves, one of the lead actors, Christoph Waltz, has described the film as "a piece of art. Not a history lesson." It’s brutal but darkly funny and Tarantino includes plenty of anachronisms. The music includes Morricone’s Spaghetti Western-style themes lifted from other movies and the flourish of an electric guitar accompanies a character’s name as it flashes up onscreen, in bold, cartoon-style lettering. Other characters are identified, at various points in the film, as their name is scribbled in chalk over the shot with an arrow pointing them out. In contrast to Tarantino’s other films, like Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill, much of this movie is shot in unobtrusive, classic Hollywood style, and as close as he could get to glorious technicolour. This makes the moments where the camerawork deliberately draws attention to itself all the more remarkable. A doomed character walks forward in slow motion, crisply picked out as the background blurs. Or the camera closes in and lingers on a glass of milk, or a bowl of cream, bringing it to our attention. In a long tracking shot, the camera arcs around a table during a conversation, revealing the faces of those sitting round it from behind the head of each in turn. At one point, as a German Officer and a farmer talk in a farmhouse kitchen, they are shown from above, the camera slowly narrowing its view like an ever-tightening rope. Further into the conversation, the camera tracks down the farmer’s leg and continues on to reveal the area beneath the floorboards, as though the house were a doll’s house, open to view. When things turn violent, the camera doesn’t flinch or turn away but keeps a steady focus on the brutalities inflicted.

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PROMO / TRAILER

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NEW NOW NEXT AWARDS LOGO PRESENTS THE NEW NOW NEXT AWARDS STARRING: JAMES VAN DER BEEK CARMEN ELECTRA CHELSEA HANDLER BUSY PHILIPS DEMI LOVATO BRITTANY SNOW LEIGHTON MEESTER MILA KUNIS AND PEREZ HILTON WITH PERFORMANCES BY: PANIC AT THE DISCO ROBYN AND WINTER GORDON INTRO: PLEASE WELCOME OUR HOST CHEYENNE JACKSON PLEASE WELCOME FROM THE TV SHOW “COUGAR TOWN” BUSY PHILIPS PLEASE WELCOME FROM “THE REAL HOUSEOWIVES OF ORANGE COUNTY” GRETCHEN ROSSI AND “THE REAL HOUSEIWVES OF BEVERLY HILLS” LISA VAN DER PUMP. BUMPER: COMING UP KELLY OSBOURNE AND THE AWARD FOR CAYSE YOU’RE HOT AND LATER A PERFORMANCE BY OH LAND WHEN THE NEW NOW NEXT AWARDS CONTINUE

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