Monitoring The Canterbury RecoveryDr Dafydd DaviesDirector, International Policy

Thailand-New Zealand FTA 2nd Co-operation Seminar on Labour Market Information collection and analysisKoh Samui, Thailand9 February, 2013

Snapshot of New Zealand Labour Market

Monitoring the labour marketKey indicatorsUnemployment rateEmployment rateVacancy growthLabour force participation rateLabour productivityPay rates / income levels

MigrationSkills shortagesWorkplace injuriesWork stoppagesSkill / qualificationLabour market dynamics

Key Groupings Key ToolsOccupations Short and medium term forecastingRegions Skills forecastingIndustry / sectors Direct Estimates of employmentCohorts (women, older workers etc) Jobs on Line

Canterbury Earthquakes

Canterbury earthquakes and labour demand and supply

• Est. 10% of NZ’s GDP (2011)• $14B residential rebuild and repair• $3B infrastructure• $13B commercial (likely to be higher)• Job losses• Population loss

Scale - current damage estimates

Government response-coordination

• Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Act 2011• Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) to coordinate reconstruction and rebuilding

• Sweeping powers – resource planning and recovery planning (incl. labour market recovery plan)

• Seismic assessments, zoning and house purchase package for red zoned houses

Changes in Canterbury

• Population• Business landscape• Labour market outcomes

Population

Source: Adapted from Subnational Population Estimates: At 30 June 2012, Statistics New Zealand

Business landscape

• 1.5% fewer businesses in Canterbury– Driven by retail & hospitality

• 2.5% fewer in Christchurch• 34.6% fewer in CBD• Surviving firms heading West

Canterbury labour market outcomes

• Slowly recovering• Lift in employment & participation rates

• Fall in unemployment rate• More evidence population loss slowing

Labour Market Supply and DemandIndicator New Zealand Canterbury

RegionChristchurch

City Population change(year to June 2012)

Up 27,900 (0.6%) Down 1,900 (–0.3%)

Down 4,500 (–1.2%)

Working age population (year to September 2012)

Up 28,000 (0.8%) Down 7,500 (–1.5%)

Down 15,700 (–4.3%)

GDP(year to June 2012)

Up +2.0% Up 1.1% Down –0.4%Employment2

(year to September 2012)

Up 1,600 (0.1%) Up 8,800 (2.9%) Down 5,800 (–2.5%)

Labour force participation rate

Up68.0% Sep 1168.1% Sep 12

Up66.7% Sep 1169.4% Sep 12

Up67.6% Sep 1168.4% Sep 12

Unemployment rate Up

6.4% Sep 117.1% Sep 12

Down5.5% Sep 115.2% Sep 12

Up6.9% Sep 116.3% Sep 12

Summary

• Labour market faces significant challenges

• Canterbury rebuild expected to stimulate economy & labour market

Estimating demand - Labour demand model

• provides information on:– labour demand– impact of various assumptions re amount of work involved and phasing

– provides information on the expected demand for workers in the building and construction sector as well as economy-wide estimates

• uses information from government agencies and private sector

Canterbury Rebuild demand and supply summary

Most in-demand occupations: Industry consensus scenario

Online job vacancies in Canterbury

Source: DOL Jobs Online

Update on supply sources

Update on supply sources

Government response-skills supply

The Government skills package:• A $42 million Skills for Canterbury package to fund extra trade training places

• $5 million extra support through Work and Income for supporting people into work

• A combined skills shortage list has been developed for Canterbury currently focussed on skilled occupations

Skills Hub

Risks• labour market adjustment process expected to occur but may not happen quickly enough

• over-investment in training (providers and students)

• timing issues - delays, phasing, matching course completion dates with demand for trainees

• impact on labour market in other parts of NZ

• health and safety, employment relations

Co-ordination - CESB

• Canterbury Employment and Skills Board (CESB) brings labour demand and supply sides together

• representatives from businesses, unions, tertiary training providers and government agencies

• tasked with shaping the immediate labour market recovery, the rebuild and long term recovery plan for the Canterbury economy

Labour Market Recovery Programme

Sector Workforce Plans

•Construction•ICT•Agribusiness•Health, •Specialised manufacturing •Professional services

• Attract and Retain Skilled and Talented People in the Region

• Develop People to meet the Economic Needs of Businesses in the Recovery

• Better skills utilisation within firms

• Better connections between schools, tertiary providers and business

• Engage People Currently Outside of the Workforce into Work

For further information:

• http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/research/canterbury-rebuild/index.asp

• http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/lmr/

• http://www.opportunitycanterbury.org.nz