Masaryk University Brno

Faculty of Education

Department of English Language and Literature

The Republican and Democratic Party Presidential

Primaries and Caucuses

Master’s thesis

Brno 2017

Supervisor: Written by:

Mgr. Zdeněk Janík, M.A., Ph.D. Bc. Daniel Lawrence Schneiter

I hereby declare that I worked on this thesis by myself and that I used only the

sources listed in the bibliography.

Bc. Daniel Lawrence Schneiter

I would like to thank my supervisor Mgr. Zdeněk Janík, M.A., Ph.D. His advice

has been pivotal in the creation of this thesis.

Bc. Daniel Lawrence Schneiter

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Table of Contents

1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 5

2 History of the Primary and Caucus System ............................................................................. 7

2.1 stages of development ...................................................................................................... 9

3 An Overview of the Candidates from both Parties ................................................................ 11

3.1 2016 Democratic candidates .......................................................................................... 11

3.2 Republican Presidential Candidates ............................................................................... 15

4 Party Platforms ...................................................................................................................... 24

4.1 General Overview of the Republican Platform .............................................................. 25

4.2 Democratic Party Platform ............................................................................................. 27

5 A Profile of the Electorate ..................................................................................................... 29

5.1 A Look into Party Affiliation ......................................................................................... 29

5.2 Hyper Partisanship ......................................................................................................... 31

5.3 Negative Partisanship ..................................................................................................... 32

6 The lead up to the 2016 Republican presidential primary ..................................................... 34

6.1 Pre-debate campaign ...................................................................................................... 34

6.2 A Controversial Announcement ..................................................................................... 35

6.3 Campaign Rallies ........................................................................................................... 37

7 2016 primary debates ............................................................................................................. 38

7.1 Democratic Debates ....................................................................................................... 38

7.2 Republican Debates ........................................................................................................ 39

8 2016 presidential primary ...................................................................................................... 43

8.1 An Overview of the Republican Primary ....................................................................... 43

8.2 An Overview of the Democratic Primary ...................................................................... 45

8.3 Dirty Politics .................................................................................................................. 45

9 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 51

10 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 53

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1 Introduction

The American presidential elections are a highly competitive and often confusing process

that also demand large amounts of money to be successful. Much of the confusion stems from

the founding of the United States itself which left some aspects of the government vague or

delegated the responsibility to each state individually. One of these aspects is the process of

nominating a presidential candidate so this thesis describes the origins and evolution over time of

the primary and caucus system. Using this base of knowledge, all facets of the 2016 presidential

nomination are explored to provide a clear picture of the race. Starting with the most influential

candidates from each party, a short biography of the candidates gives a good overview of the

path that each took to the primary.

While the party platforms are completed at the end of the nomination process, it reflects

the most important issues throughout the campaign. These issues are displayed to show the

difference between parties or historical positions which the held in the past. Moreover, they are

examined critically to show the disagreements that arise from their policy stances. In the fifth

chapter, the thesis deals with the electorate with extra attention paid to the voters who identify

with one of the American political parties. Voters from either party participate in the nomination

process in greater numbers than independent voters who are usually not allowed in primaries or

caucuses. However, it is also sometimes worth comparing the extreme positions of each party to

mainstream voters who will participate in the general election. Current trends in political

attitudes give insight into the political atmosphere that the candidates must navigate. This is

highlighted in detail with the hyper-partisanship and negative partisanship section. These trends

have made a tremendous impact on the nature of political discourse and on the candidates

themselves.

The sixth chapter focuses on the important moments from the period of time leading up to

the first contest which includes the primary debates. This includes the early frontrunners who

emerged and the fundraising which helps the campaign function. Moreover, the 2016 primaries

saw a peculiar candidate join the race which came with a lot of controversy. Some of Donald

Trump’s statements came to define the tenor of the competition along with the early debate

performances. A brief overview of both primaries is given with some of the defining moments

which helped to shape the campaign for the nomination. The last part includes some of the

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negative aspects which politicians use to gain an advantage over rivals. These kinds of tactics

have been used for years to great effect but the 2016 primary had many very public instances of

using negativity. Moreover, these negative attacks seemed to cross the line between acceptable

political strategy into typically off-limits personal attacks.

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2 History of the Primary and Caucus System

The nomination process for choosing presidential candidates was never directly decided

upon by the founding fathers during the creation of the constitution. This process evolved over

time due to the limitations of technology and an expanding country. Systems which worked well

early in American history were not feasible with a growing population and larger distances to be

traveled. The United States Constitution does not contain a provision which dictates the role of

political parties in the government. Therefore, the nominating process was likewise omitted from

the document. Prior to 1820, the presidential candidates were chosen by their respective

members of congress. The system utilizing a national convention where delegates meet to

nominate a presidential candidate was implemented in 1832. (Davis 9)

The Electoral College system which is used to elect the president is outlined in the

constitution. In Article II of the American Constitution, the Electoral College was established as

a system to designate electors and vote for a president and vice-president. However, the

procedure for nominating the candidates was not directly written so the political parties had to

devise the system themselves. George Washington, the Revolutionary War general, was the

obvious choice for the first president of the United States of America. After Washington's two

terms, presidential candidates had to be nominated by party members in Congress due to the lack

of an obvious successor. For almost thirty years, the King Caucus system, named by its critics,

was used to choose the parties' nominees. The King Caucus did not allow for any direct input by

the general public and instead members of Congress picked the nominees. This system came

under criticism from the candidates themselves because of the lack of transparency. Moreover,

westward expansion of the United States which decentralized the political power of the parties

was also another factor in the downfall of the King Caucus. (Davis 11)

Replacing King Caucus, national nominating conventions were used to nominate a

president and a vice-president. Policy positions would also be agreed upon by the party members

who met. The first recorded national convention was conducted by a very small party called the

Anti-Masons who met in a saloon to agree upon their candidates and their party platform. The

same saloon was the sight of the first Democratic Party nominating convention a year

later. (Davis 11) The national nominating convention had an advantage over the previous system

in that it allowed for greater party unity. This was achieved by allowing factions within the

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parties to participate in the national convention which helped to prevent a splitting of the party.

However, this also be considered the time of "smoke-filled room" nominations because of the

power which the party bosses still wielded. (Cohen 94)

In the 19th and 20th centuries, the national nominating convention was controlled by state

party leaders. The system for selecting a candidate was rife with problems because it was not a

transparent or a democratic process. State party leaders or "bosses" picked delegates for the

convention who followed their orders. If a delegate went against the party boss and voted for a

different candidate, they would face repercussions such as losing their job etc.

Dissatisfaction with the state level corruption led to the use of primaries which lessened

the influence of party leaders. In 1916, over half of the states were using presidential primaries.

However, the next decades regressed with the party bosses taking back power from the people to

the extent that by 1936 only twelve states held primaries. (Davis 12) Even some of the

candidates themselves preferred not having primaries. These politicians were afraid or

unwillingly to risk losing support due to poor performance in a primary if they had already

solidified the support of party leaders.

There were some benefits of choosing a candidate at the state level rather than at the

federal level. Removing Congress from the nomination process loosened their grip on the

eventual president. This allowed the nominee to better follow their constituents in theory because

the electorate had a more direct connection to their local politicians more so than their

congressman or senator.

During the post World War Two era, primaries became more prevalent due to

developments in communication technology. The emergence of the television as a viable

platform for dissemination of information allowed primaries to become more manageable for

presidential campaigns. Moreover, internal disputes in the Democratic Party caused by Lyndon

Johnson’s decision to increase America’s involvement in the Vietnam War led to more reform of

the system. By 1976, 72.6 percent of Democratic delegates were chosen by a primary process

which is in stark contrast to 1912 where only 32.9 percent of delegates came from a primary.

Republican primaries followed a similar pattern where 1912 saw 41.7 percent of delegates

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coming from primaries and by 1976, 67.9 percent. (Davis 18) These numbers show the increased

use of primaries and even the higher involvement of the public in the process.

2.1 stages of development

There have been a number of changes to the primary system of the course of American

history. The evolution of this process can be divided into four different stages of development

according to author James W. Davis. These four stages, in chronological order, are the early

period, the ebb tide period, the period of reawakened interest in primaries and the system of

popular appeal.

The Early Period (1901-1906)

The implementation of the new primary system was undertaken during this time period or

states experimented on a new system. Florida and Wisconsin were the first to pass laws that

allowed for the direct election of delegates to the convention. (Davis 14) This also led to the first

“beauty contest” or preferential primary where voters cast their ballot for their preferred

candidate rather than a delegate to go to the convention. Rather than voting for a delegate who

supports a certain candidate, preferential primaries allows the public to directly vote for their

favorite candidate. This system generally requires that delegates are bound to vote for the winner

of the preferential primary and it is still used in 2016 albeit in a modified form. (Davis 15)

The Ebb-Tide Period (1917-1945)

This period of time saw the near reversal of the movement of primaries to the extent that

many states abandoned or repealed the laws which allowed for a primary. There was a

combination of reasons which made these primaries lose favor in political circles. During this

timeframe, major events occurred such as the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression and two

world wars. There were inherent problems with the primary system which also drove down its

popularity such as the cost of hosting or the low rates of participation of voters and candidates.

However, towards the end of the Second World War presidential primaries became more

important to the electorate. The state party bosses regained much of their previously held power

and used it to control the choice of candidate. (Davis 16)

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Reawakened Interest Period (1948-1968)

After the end of the Second World War, voters became more interested in the primary

process which led to progressive changes. However, this was more of a transitional period where

party bosses still had the ultimate power to choose the candidates but primaries were still held. A

perfect example of this is Estes Kefauver, a Democrat from Tennessee, who ran for president in

1952. Kefauver won all but two primary contests but still was unable to attain the party’s

approval as the presidential candidate and another candidate was chosen is his place. While

unsuccessful, voter participation dramatically increased to 12.7 million voters which is double

the previous election. (Davis 17)

Post Reform Period and the Reform Commissions (1969-1986)

More than just the increased interest, a controversy arose from the 1968 Democratic

National Convention. Senator Eugene J. McCarthy and Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey

were both vying to be nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate. McCarthy performed

well in the primaries but Humphrey won the nomination despite the fact that he never entered

any of the primary contests. (Davis 20) The Democratic Party then spent nearly twenty years

reforming the process of picking their presidential contender over six different commissions.

Some of the problems which arose out of the commissions were connected to the delegates who

did not identify which candidate they were representing and that state party leaders had abused

their power. (Davis 21) Subsequent commissions dealt with the method of allocating delegates to

the national convention based on population and giving less populous states a minimum number

of state delegates. Moreover, delegates were required to declare their party preference in order to

be a part of the process and instituted rules to restrict the voting in the primary to Democrats, ie.

a closed primary system. A closed primary system only allows voters from the party holding the

primary to participate. (Davis 25) The last commission, Fairness Commission 1985-1986,

eliminated the winner-take-all policy and replaced it with a fifteen percent threshold rule which

helps the results match the popular vote. However, the commission also increased the amount of

superdelagates, who are made up of Democratic House and Senate members, as well as all

Democratic governors, to the national convention. A winner-take-all primary allocates every

delegate to the winner of the popular vote, no matter how slim the margin of victory.

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The Republicans, on the other hand, were more resistant to changing their own

nominating process. However, the 1964 Republican National Convention was tense and the

televised convention showed the public the poor behavior of the delegates. The leader of the

Republican reform movement was former President Dwight D. Eisenhower who pushed for a

committee to look at the problems in the process. There were three committees in total, however,

the first two committees did not have power to affect change but rather only made

recommendations. The last one, the Rule 29 Committee, had enough power to make real change

to the process. (Davis 29) One controversial issue was opening up the system to young people,

women and minorities which was not popular with more conservative members of the

committee. In the end, the committee ended in failure with most of the reform being treated as

only a recommendation similar to previous committees.

3 An Overview of the Candidates from both Parties

The third chapter of the thesis focuses on the major candidates from each party who

entered the race. However, the biographies in this section cover only the candidates who affected

the primary or brought important issues into the contest. Some of the candidates in 2016 came

from different occupations than typical politicians and many of them were damaged by past

controversies which had an impact on the results of the primaries. Therefore, these biographies

provide much needed context to the 2016 Republican and Democratic primaries.

3.1 2016 Democratic candidates

The campaign for the Democratic presidential candidate featured six major candidates.

There were thousands of candidates who made the requisite filing with the Federal Election

Commission, which regulates financial aspects of campaigns, to run for president but many of

those were one-issue candidates or unable to gain enough support to be listed on a ballot.

Moreover, some candidates were able to be included on ballots in only one state or only a few

states. Presidential candidates are also required to be natural born citizens and over the age of

thirty-five.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton was born on October 26,1947 in Chicago, Illinois. She is

the eldest of three children who were raised in a northwestern suburb of Chicago. In her early

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life, she participated in young Republican groups and even helped the campaign of Republican

presidential nominee Barry Goldwater in 1964. However by 1968, she changed parties to the

Democratic party after being inspired to work in public service after a speech given by the

Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. in Chicago.

Hillary Rodham was active in student politics and voted senior class president in 1969 at

Wellesley College. She met her future husband, Bill Clinton, while attending Yale Law School

where she graduated with honors in 1973. Her career started in the spring of 1974 where she was

a member of the presidential impeachment inquiry staff investigating Richard Nixon's

involvement in the Watergate Scandal. Controversy surrounds the reason for her termination

from this position, Chief Counsel Jerry Zeifman alleges that he fired her for unethical behavior

while other sources dispute whether he even had the authority to fire her. Following Nixon's

resignation, she taught at University of Arkansas Law School in Fayetteville, Arkansas where

her boyfriend, Bill Clinton, was also a member of the faculty.

Hillary Rodham and Bill Clinton were married on October 11, 1975 and Chelsea, their

daughter, was born in 1980. The married couple continued to live in Fayetteville while still being

politically active in the Democratic Party. Hillary work for Jimmy Carter's successful

presidential campaign in 1976. At the same time, Bill was elected to the position of attorney

general. He then was elected governor in 1978, 1982, 1984, 1986 and 1990. The term of office

was extended from two to four years in 1986 and his only unsuccessful election campaign for

governor was 1980. In the state capitol Little Rock, she worked in the Rose Law Firm and

became a part-time chairman of the Legal Services Corporation for President Jimmy Carter.

Being a first lady of a state entails certain duties including chairing the Arkansas Educational

Standards Committee, co-founding the Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families, and

serving on the boards of the Arkansas Children's Hospital, Arkansas Legal Services and the

Children's Defense Fund. She was listed as one of the most powerful lawyers in America by The

National Law Journal in 1988 and 1991. (Everything You Need to Know about Hillary Clinton)

In 1992 after a successful presidential campaign, Hillary became first lady of the United

States of America. She worked on many projects during her time as first lady, the most famous

of which was the Task Force on National Health Reform in 1993. However, the commission was

controversial and the plan was complicated which was never enacted. The Clintons were

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embroiled in a few controversies during their time in the oval office. They invested in a real

estate project called Whitewater which cost the United States government $73 million dollars

after the project's bank failed. This dealing was investigated my numerous congressional

hearings and an independent counsel investigation. (Schneider) In the final year of Bill Clinton's

term as president, Bill was involved in a sex scandal with Monica Lewinsky. Even though he

was impeached, he stayed in office because the U.S. Senate acquitted him of the charges. This

put strain on their marriage to the extent that Hillary considered divorcing Bill but she publicly

supported him, nonetheless.

Following her term as the first lady, Mrs. Clinton sought to run for the U.S. Senate seat in

New York. Despite charges of carpetbagging, Clinton became the first woman elected to the U.S.

Senate from New York and the first wife of a president to win a public office position. She was

also reelected in 2006. Clinton then entered the 2008 presidential race where she finished second

to the eventual president Barrack Obama. After the failure of her presidential campaign, Hillary

Clinton accepted the position of U.S. secretary of state becoming the 67th person to hold that

office. She worked on many initiatives during her time such as women's rights and human rights.

She was also involved in diplomatic efforts with Russia, Arab Spring and intervening in

Libya.(Everything You Need to Know about Hillary Clinton) However, her term as secretary of

state was also the source of her biggest controversies.

In 2012, terrorists attacked the American diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya and killed

four Americans including U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens. The largely partisan Republican

effort to apply blame to Hillary Clinton for her lack of preparation or response to the attack

failed to prove any wrongdoing on her part. The House Benghazi Committee encompassed 33

hearings, four public hearings and over $7 million dollars spent. There were 10 congressional

committees participating in the investigation, 13 published reports, 252 witnesses testified, 62

hours spent in publicly available hearings and 1,982 pages of published reports on the

investigations into the Benghazi attacks. The report which purported to show Clinton's guilt in

the death of four Americans did not prove her culpability. The findings placed the blame more

on the Department of Defense and the bureaucracy which led to miscommunication between the

different agencies that were involved in the response to the attack. (Herszenhorn)

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However, the results have not silenced Clinton's critics who still use the tragedy to attack

her politically.

During the Benghazi investigation, State Department emails came under review. The

email controversy stems from the location of her email server through which she sent and

received State Department emails. Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server was dangerous

especially if classified information was shared on an unsecured server. The FBI director James

Comey decided to not press charges because of the difficulty of proving intent in using the

private email server. However, Republicans questioned her honesty in her answers during the

Benghazi hearings.

Bernie Sanders

The Independent turned Democrat Bernie Sanders was born in 1941 in New York.

Growing up in Brooklyn, New York, Sanders started his higher education with one year at

Brooklyn College before transferring to the University of Chicago. Bernie Sanders was active

politically in the Civil Rights Movement and became a member of the Congress of Racial

Equality. He participated in a sit-in, march on Washington and he was an organizer for the

Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee. Sanders graduated with a degree in political

science in 1964. (Meet Bernie Sanders) He worked various jobs including filmmaker, writer,

psychiatric aide, and teacher. Bernie Sanders received criticism from some for this part of his life

because of his lack of regular employment. His friends even described him as close to being poor

even to the extent that his electricity was shut off. (Kruse)

Bernie Sanders' political career started with the anti-war Liberty Union Party when he

lost several attempts for public office. He became mayor of Burlington, Vermont in 1981 and

won reelection three times running as a democratic socialist. Sanders then won a seat in the U.S.

House of Representatives in 1990. Being an Independent made it difficult to join a caucus but he

joined the Democrats despite opposition from conservative Democrats. Sanders was known in

the House of Representatives for his disheveled look, his criticism of members of both parties

and opposition to the Iraq War.

In 2006, Sanders was successfully elected to the United States Senate. He was a member

of the Committee on Veteran Affairs, Budget, Health, Education, Labor and the Joint Economic

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committee. Issues that later became part of his presidential platform were very important for him

during his time in the Senate such as overturning Citizens United, single-payer healthcare

system, protecting the Voting Rights Act, the Environment and campaign reform. Sanders gave a

more than 8-hour-long filibuster on his opposition to extension of the Bush era tax cuts for the

wealthy in 2010. (Meet Bernie Sanders) However, Bernie Sanders has detractors who have

criticized both his campaign promises and his record in the Senate.

Bernie Sanders may have had an impact on legislation through working on different

committees, such as the committee formed to create the Affordable Care Act but he is lacking in

the area of authoring legislation. The deficiency could be attributed to his status as an

Independent who caucused with the Democrats where it is difficult for someone not officially a

member of the party. His attitude when dealing with colleagues was also questioned by the

Massachusetts Democratic Senator Barney Frank who in 1991 complained that “Bernie alienates

his natural allies. His holier-than-thou attitude—saying in a very loud voice he is smarter than

everyone else and purer than everyone else—really undercuts his effectiveness” (Kruse) While

this might have held him back from introducing legislation, he was more effective in getting

amendments passed to others legislation.

3.2 Republican Presidential Candidates

Donald Trump

Born in June 1946 in Queens, New York, Donald Trump was the fourth of five children.

Trump's father was a real estate developer who constructed and operated middle-income

apartments in New York City. He attended Fordham University for two years until he transferred

to the Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania where he received a degree

in economics. Upon graduation, Trump worked at his father's real estate company Elizabeth

Trump and Son. He moved to Manhattan in 1971 when he was in charge of the company which

then became the Trump Organization. Trump dealt mostly in real estate while later owning

casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey. (Donald Trump biography) His early business ventures

proved to be volatile with the bankruptcy of the Trump Organization due to the real estate market

decline in 1990. Trump also went through a turbulent personal life after marrying actress Ivanka

Winklmayr in 1977. They later divorced in 1991 after having three children but Trump married

again in 1993 to actress Marla Maples who he divorced in 1997. Donald Trump married for a

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third time to model Melania Knauss in 2005 and had a son together. The NBC reality television

series The Apprentice became a hit which made Trump a household name in 2004.

Donald Trump had numerous scandals during his business career and most of them ended

in the judicial system. Trump has battled rumors over being involved with the mafia for many

years starting in the 1970's. However, he was never convicted of any wrongdoing except for a

fine which his casino received for keeping black employees away from a customer and giving an

associate of John Gotti nine luxury cars. In the 1980's, the mafia controlled the New York City

concrete industry so Trump had to deal with them being that he was building in and around the

city. He also bought the land for his casino in Atlantic City from organized crime for twice the

market price. In New York City from 1973-1975, Donald Trump and his father were sued by the

Department of Justice for housing discrimination at 39 places which they owned. He vehemently

denied the allegations that his company had different rental terms and conditions for black

people and refused to rent to people based on their race and color. However, Trump settled the

case with the government while not admitting guilt, he did promise not to discriminate and

submitted to review to monitor his practices. He has also had problems with buildings which he

owned himself. Trump bought a building on Central Park South which he intended to turn into

luxury condos. However, the tenants already living in the building refused to leave because the

building was rent-controlled. Allegedly, Trump used unscrupulous tactics to try to make them

leave such as threatening eviction, cutting off heat and hot water, refusing to fix problems and

offering housing to homeless people in an attempt to make it unpleasant for the tenants. He had

to settle the case and agree to monitoring to ensure that he upholds his obligations to the tenants.

(Durgin)

The casino and real estate business were not his only business interests and these

endeavors also came with scandals. Donald Trump was a frequent attendee to the Miss America

beauty pageant for years before buying it in 1996. Prior to purchasing the pageant, Trump faced

accusations of sexual misbehavior and breach of contract after allegedly groping models at a

party. He was also accused of using his influence to keep black women out of the pageant. The

suit was settled out of court but this was not his only accusation of sexual misbehavior. Many

women came forward with allegations of sexual harassment or unfair treatment under his

employment, the most serious of which was his first wife Ivana Trump's alleged marital rape

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case. She claims that while they were married in 1989 that he forcibly had sex with her but she

did not want to seek criminal charges. The incident was worsened by Trump's lawyer who

claimed that a husband cannot rape his wife. These instances are part of the reason why Trump is

accused of being a misogynist. (Durgin)

In 2005, Donald Trump decided to move in the field of education when he announced

Trump University. The promise of teaching students real-estate development secrets to get rich

ended in litigation with students contending that it was a scam. The online school used the tactic

of promising to learn from instructors handpicked by Donald Trump himself and curriculum

designed by him. The free seminars enticed students to pay up to $35,000 dollars for lessons.

The name of the school was a problem because it is against New York state law by claiming to

be a university without an educational license. This led to a name change to Trump Entrepreneur

Initiative but that did not stop the litigation by the students and the state of New York for

allegedly conning $40 million dollars out of students. Pressuring students for good reviews and

intimidating plaintiffs has also been alleged by prosecutors trying the case after closing the

school in 2010. This real-estate school was owned by Trump himself but he also franchised his

name to a similar venture Trump Institute which also shut down amid allegations of false

advertising and plagiarism of course materials. (Durgin)

Donald Trump's political ambition started in 1999 with his failed candidacy for the

Reform Party which ended with his poor performance in the California primary. He later became

a proponent of the Birther movement which believed that President Obama was not born in the

United States. This belief hampered his chances when he considered running for president in

2012. (Donald Trump biography)

Ted Cruz

In Calgary, Canada, Ted Cruz was born on December 22, 1970 to Rafael and Eleanor

Cruz. His mother, Eleanor, was an American citizen while Rafael is of Cuban descent and he

fled Fidel Castro’s regime. Ted Cruz became interested in public speaking from an early age and

participating in groups which introduced free market economics and the Constitution to young

people. He attended Princeton University after finishing as the valedictorian of his class at

Houston's Second Baptist High School. Before graduating from Princeton in 1992, Cruz became

an award-winning debater and was mentored by a religious conservative, Robert George.

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Ted Cruz worked for Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist from 1996-1997 as a law

clerk after graduating Harvard Law School. He then worked as a policy adviser during George

W. Bush's presidential campaign in 2000. After the campaign, Cruz worked in the Department of

Justice and the FTC before becoming the solicitor general of Texas in 2003. After defeating

Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in a run-off election, Cruz was elected to the United

States Senate where he became famous for his tactics and speeches. (Meet Ted)

The government shutdown of 2013 was a defining moment for Ted Cruz in the national

spotlight. The freshman senator gave a 21-hour filibuster speech made famous, at least in part,

for reading a children's book to his daughters. The filibuster was a protest to the Democrats

signature healthcare act which he wanted to defund even if it meant shutting down the

government to achieve that goal. In the end, Cruz was not successful in defunding the healthcare

act but did shut down the government for sixteen days. However, shutting down the government

was very unpopular with the electorate and Republicans were blamed for doing it. Fellow

Republicans were also critical of Cruz's plan because it took the attention away from the

disastrous rollout of the healthcare website and it did not really accomplish anything. The one

thing shutting down the government did do was to make Ted Cruz even more popular with

conservatives on the extreme right. Moreover, he personally benefited from the increased

exposure of the filibuster but in turn made him extremely unpopular with his fellow senators.

Many Republican senators saw his actions as self-aggrandizing but to the detriment of his party's

success in future elections. The feeling of his colleagues is summed up best by former senator

Tom Coburn of Oklahoma who said "It wasn't about the shutdown. It wasn't about the

Affordable Care Act. It was about launching Ted Cruz." (Fahrenthold)

Jeb Bush

The son of George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States, Jeb Bush was born

on February 11, 1953 in Midland, Texas. Being born into a family deeply rooted in politics, Jeb

also showed interest in joining the political sphere similar to his father and brother George W.

Bush who was the 41st president. While studying in high school, his desire to engage in public

service led him to take part in an exchange program where he travelled to Mexico in order to

teach English. After high school, Jeb Bush attended the University of Texas where he graduated

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with a degree in Latin American affairs. In 1974, he married his wife Columba who is of

Mexican descent and had three children through their marriage. (Jeb Bush biography)

Having moved from Texas to Florida, Jeb Bush worked as a real estate developer and

broker before entering Florida politics in 1987. His first post was as Florida’s secretary of

commerce which he held for two years. In 1994, he made his first attempt at becoming the

Governor of Florida which he ultimately lost. However, Jeb Bush was successful on his second

attempt at the state’s governorship in 1998. This led to a rather interesting situation while he was

Governor during the 2000 presidential election in which his brother was running against Al

Gore. The election came down to Florida as the deciding state for the presidency but Jeb recused

himself from any decisions to dispel any appearance of impropriety. (Jeb Bush biography)

Unable to run for a third term due to Florida law, Bush left the governorship after eight

years of public service. Bush’s term as Governor ended in 2007 with many accomplishments

which were quite popular with his supporters. As Governor, Jeb Bush was quite successful in

economic areas with jobs, unemployment, and economic growth being better than the national

average or outperforming other states. Bush also accomplished many Republican priorities

including lowering taxes by $19 billion, privatizing 13,000 government jobs, passing legislation

to reduce liability for gun owners and supporting pro-life initiatives. He gained a lot of

experience dealing with emergency situations during the nine hurricanes which hit Florida during

his term in office. (Sanchez)

Critics of Jeb Bush’s candidacy emerge from the more conservative side of the party

because of his support for Common Core standards in schools and comprehensive immigration

reform. Bush had an important negative factor, which he had no control over, due to his last

name which polls showed that a majority of voters were less likely to vote for him because of the

two former presidents in his family. Moreover, statements by his mother that the United States

does not need another Bush damaged his campaign before it had even launched. Bush also had

problems answering questions about the Iraq War which started under his brother’s

administration. (Handby)

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Ben Carson

Sonya and Robert Carson gave birth to Benjamin Caron on September 18, 1951 in

Detroit, Michigan. Ben Carson’s mother grew up in poverty being in a large family and only

receiving education until the second grade. She married a Baptist minister, Robert Carson when

she was only thirteen years old only to find out that he had another wife and family. After having

two children, the couple divorced with Robert leaving to live with his other family and Ben

Carson with his mother in financial problems. While working multiple jobs, Sonya was very

frugal to the extent that she would pick crops for farmers to get a share of the harvest. These

values influenced Carson at an early age along with the belief that he could do anything in life.

That belief was reignited after Carson struggled in school until his mother forced him to

read two books a week and write a report about them. He found that he enjoyed reading more

than watching television because he was able to use his imagination. After a year, he had

improved his results at school to the point that science teachers noticed him and encouraged him

to continue. By the eighth grade, Carson had become the top student in his class and his white

classmates were yelled at by their teacher for being outdone by a black student.

Though successful in school, Ben Carson claims that he had a violent temper in his

childhood. He claims to have wielded a hammer during an argument with his mother. However,

his mother disputes this story saying that she was the one holding the hammer. In his book, he

also wrote that he injured a classmate’s head and attempted to stab a friend over choosing a radio

station. The last incident led him to lock himself into the bathroom with a bible where he prayed

to God to help him. He became a fervent believer in the bible claiming that it helped him to

control his anger issues. (Who is Ben Carson?)

Having overcome his bad temperament, he graduated from Southeastern with honors and

earning a scholarship to Yale. After getting a Psychology degree at Yale, Carson went to the

University of Michigan to pursue his dream of being a neurosurgeon. He married Lacena Rustin

in 1975 whom he met while studying at Yale. In 1977, they moved to Baltimore to intern at

Johns Hopkins University after Carson had graduated with a medical degree. He became the

chief resident in neurosurgery in 1982 due to his physical and mental talents. Carson became the

youngest American physician to be named director of pediatric neurosurgery at the age of 33.

Internationally, he gained acclaim for being the first person to successfully separate conjoined

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twins that were attached at the head in 1987 in Germany. Carson continued to travel the world to

perform surgery on conjoined twins while his own hard upbringing gained attention. This led

him travelling America for speaking engagements at schools, businesses and hospitals to tell his

story. In 1994, Carson and his wife established the Carson Scholars Fund to encourage young

people to read and helps with scholarships.

In 2003, Ben Carson was diagnosed with prostate cancer which led him to take time off

work to be with his wife and three kids more. However, cancer did not stop Carson from still

performing surgery around the world and continuing to do speaking tours around the United

States. He has also published a series of books detailing his life, hard work, religion, politics and

education in the books Gifted Hands (1990), Think Big (1992), The Big Picture (1999), Take the

Risk (2007), America the Beautiful: Rediscovering What Made This Nation Great (2012) and

One Nation: What We Can All Do To Save America's Future (2014). The book Gifted Hands was

adapted into a made for television movie that starred Cuba Gooding Jr. as Dr. Carson. He

received many awards including being named a living legend by the Library of Congress, the

Spingarn Medal from the NAACP, the Ford’s Theatre Lincoln Medal and the Presidential Medal

of Freedom from George W. Bush.

Dr. Ben Carson’s political career began with the publishing of his 2012 book which

showcased his conservative Republican views. Carson was an outspoken critic of President

Barrack Obama over his stances on taxes and healthcare. He received national attention for his

views after speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast in February 2013. Following his speech, he

was hired to work at Fox News as a healthcare expert and contributor in October. His 2014 book

reached number one on the New York Times bestseller list. (Who is Ben Carson?)

Carly Fiorina

In September 1954, Carly Fiorina was born in Austin, Texas. Fiorina studied philosophy

and medieval history before starting law school. She gained employment at AT&T working as a

management trainee after quitting law school. Before working at AT&T, she worked as a

secretary and an English teacher in Italy. She was successful in the company eventually

becoming the first female officer in their Network Systems division. Her employment at AT&T

came after a sexual discrimination lawsuit forced the company to hire more women to

management positions. However, she took the opportunity and used it to further her education at

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the same time by getting an MBA from the University of Maryland then a MS degree from the

Sloan School of Management at MIT. (Stewart)

Carly Fiorina had great sales instincts and she understood the importance of new

technologies which led to her being named the head of North American sales for AT&T. When

they decided to sell off parts of the company which then became known as Lucent, Fiorina was

chosen to lead the transition. Under Fiorina’s leadership, Lucent one of the most financially

successful IPOs (Initial Public Offering) receiving $3 billion dollars. She was named the most

powerful woman in business by Fortune magazine in 1998. Being the president of Lucent’s

Global Service Provider division, every product in every region which they sold saw an increase

in market share. Fiorina made another first by leading a Fortune 20 company when she was hired

to be the new Chief Executive Officer of Hewlett-Packard. She was a very active manager with

her making changes in sales, streamlining production and increasing charitable donations.

HP became a leader in charitable programs with the Teaching with Technology program

and other activities which promoted closing the technological divide between rich and poorer

countries. In 2001, the dotcom bubble burst and it had a large impact on HP’s bottom line and

led to the decision to merge with Compaq. The merger was a disaster for the company and the

founders of the company were against it. Morale was down and several top executives resigned

despite Fiorina claiming HP was the leader in every business category in the market. However,

the board-of-directors for HP were dissatisfied with the company’s performance and suggested

giving some of her power to division head which she refused to do. After a month, she was

forced to resign and her political ambitions came to the fore.

Carly Fiorina had experience dealing with the government when the National Security

Agency asked for help a week after the September 11th terrorist attacks. She assisted the NSA by

sending equipment destined for retail shops to provide them with the necessary technology to

carry out the surveillance program. She started officially working with the government when she

was chosen to chair the CIA’s External Advisory Board. She was the leader of a board who

worked as national security advisors for senior CIA leaders and she received the highest national

security clearance. In 2008, Fiorina worked as a consultant on John McCain’s presidential

campaign before running for the Californian Senate seat. In 2010, Carly Fiorina competed

against the Democratic candidate, Barbara Boxer. Fiorina’s biggest weakness in the campaign

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was her leadership of Hewlett-Packard where she outsourced jobs while laying off American

workers. These attacks led to her downfall in the election but she continued working as a

commentator for Fox News. (Stewart)

John Kasich

In May 1952, John Kasich was born to Catholic postal workers in Pennsylvania. Before

enrolling in Ohio State University, Kasich thought about becoming a priest. While attending

OSU, he realized his interest in political science even being invited to the White House by

President Richard Nixon after writing a letter about his views. Kasich received his bachelor’s

degree in 1977 and started working in politics. His first job was being an aide to a Republican

State Senator before he successfully ran for Ohio State Senate himself in 1978.

John Kasich was the youngest Ohio State Senator in history before he decided to run for

United States Congress. In 1982, Kasich won a seat in Congress which he was reelected to eight

more times. While serving in congress, he sat on the Armed Forces Committee and chairman of

the House Budget Committee. As the head of the House Budget Committee, Kasich oversaw the

creation of the Balanced Budget Agreement in 1997 and the Welfare Reform Act which are very

popular bills with Republicans. Due to these successes, John Kasich ran for president of the

United States in 1999 which ultimately ended in failure with George W. Bush becoming the

nominee. (Blatty)

Following Kasich’s failed campaign for Republican nominee, he worked in the private

sector at Lehman Brothers as a managing director of their investment banking division. He also

wrote three New York Times bestsellers, starting with “Courage is Contagious” in 1999, then

“Stand for Something: The Battle for America’s Soul” in 2006 and “Every Other Monday:

Twenty Years of Life, Lunch, Faith and Friendship” in 2011. (Blatty)

Marco Rubio

The son of Cuban immigrants, Marco Rubio was born in 1971 in Miami, Florida. Rubio

graduated from the University of Florida before receiving his degree in law from the University

of Miami. He started in politics after college when he was elected to the West Miami City

Commission and then the following year to the Florida House of Representatives in 1999. In

2003, Rubio became the majority leader of the House Republicans and speaker of the House in

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2006. During his tenure as the speaker, Marco Rubio worked hard on finding different ways to

reform the state government. Marco Rubio’s quick rise in politics was helped because he became

known for his innovative ideas and for being fiscally conservative.

In 2009, Marco Rubio continued his political career by running against the former

Republican governor Charlie Crist who was expected to win the vacant United States Senate

seat. However, Rubio defeated Crist for the Republican nomination due in part to the support

that he received from Tea Party supporters and associating Crist with Barrack Obama. The next

year, he defeated the Democratic challenger Kendrick Meek and Crist, who ran as an

Independent, to become a United States Senator. In the Senate, he was named to the Senate

Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation and the Committee on Foreign Relations.

Mitt Romney was rumored to have considered him as a possible running mate during the 2012

presidential election. (Marco Rubio)

Though only having served in government for a relatively short time, Marco Rubio has

encountered some controversy. During his successful run for Senate, his family background

came under scrutiny. Rubio made statements claiming that his parents fled Cuba during the

revolution despite the fact that they had already left before the revolution. During his time in the

Senate, Rubio became a member of the “Gang of Eight” which was a bi-partisan group tasked

with creating a comprehensive immigration bill. The final bill included increased border security

along the Mexican border but it also allowed undocumented immigrants to apply for the process

to become citizens. The pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants is unpopular with many

Republicans and Rubio withdrew his support after facing backlash from his own supporters.

(Marco Rubio)

4 Party Platforms

Party platforms are not a binding agreement but rather a message to supporters and

potential voters of the principles which are important to each party. They are adopted during the

national convention for each party. National conventions are meetings arranged by the parties for

the purpose of gathering the delegates from all of the states who then cast their ballot for a

nominee based on the results of their primary or caucus. The candidates do not always follow the

platform when in office but some of the issues discussed in the platform can show what the

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priorities of the parties are when they are elected. Moreover, changes to the platform can show a

shift in the attitudes or positions of the party and can represent the influence of the presidential

candidate.

4.1 General Overview of the Republican Platform

As to be expected, the platform includes many traditional Republican issues including the

support for greater personal responsibility, a balanced budget amendment, gun ownership,

parental rights, decentralizing power, reducing the size and scope of government and overturning

Supreme Court rulings about Obamacare and other rulings connected to religious freedom. These

rulings are typical issues for the Republican platform such as Roe vs. Wade which deals with the

legality of abortion. However, LGBT rights are a new issue which this platform deals with by

opposing same-sex marriage and gay adoption.

The first chapter of the 2016 Republican platform deals with economic issues such as

taxes and trade deals. Titled "Restoring the American Dream", the chapter puts forth the tax

policy for the Republican Party. The platform calls for a simplified tax code system to encourage

growth which means tax cuts for most citizens. Stopping judges from deciding tax rates and

closing special interest loopholes are some of specific positions in the text as well as protecting

tax-exempt status for religious institutions and charities. Moreover, the platform proposes

weakening the Internal Revenue Service and Environmental Protection Agency which are seen

as agencies that put a burden on economic growth. The next part delves into the specific issues

which were criticized and how they have changed from previous iterations of the Republican

Party platform. (2016 Republican Party Platform)

Criticisms of the platform

The 2016 Republican Party platform came under fire from members of both parties as

soon as it was ratified on the floor and even before its ratification. Some of the areas which were

the most contentious came from the treatment of the LBGT community and the language used

against them. The platform was also criticized on the basis of foreign policy, economic and

environmental positions. The New York Times declared that this platform is more rightwing than

ever before.

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LBGT rights

The language and positions held in the platform show the opposition to many of the

issues which effect and are of importance to gay men, lesbians and transgender people. Some of

the criticism emanated from members of the Republican Party themselves. Moderate

Republicans and Log Cabin Republicans appealed in vain for more moderate language in the

platform in order to be more inclusive to LBGT people. The platform targets the Supreme Court

by appointing justices who will overturn decisions, seen as being activist, especially gay

marriage. If successful, the individual states would be allowed to set laws regarding the legality

of same-sex marriage or the state’s recognition of these marriages. Moreover, the platform

endorses the First Amendment Defense Act which is a piece of legislation in the House and

Senate. This act would prohibit government discrimination of companies and people who believe

marriage is only between a man and a woman. In practice, this would allow businesses and

individuals to discriminate against members of the LBGT community. For example, a bakery

could refuse to bake a wedding cake if it was for a same-sex wedding. This is an actual case

which reached the Colorado Court of Appeals in 2015 where the court decided against the baker.

(Peters)

Economic policy

Republican opposition to increases in taxes and the ability of workers to unionize is a

long held belief which continues in this platform. However, the 2016 platform deals with many

different areas of government which are targets of cuts or diminishing. The Wall Street Reform

and Consumer Protection Act was passed after the economic crisis which started in 2008. Better

known as the Dodd-Frank bill, this aimed to protect consumers and the national economy from

banks speculation and predatory lending. The platform accuses the Dodd-Frank bill of over

regulating financial institutions by requiring them to retain a percentage of capitol so that they do

not become overleveraged. Critics point out that the bill prevents another crisis similar to the one

which occurred in 2008 and it prevents the government from having to bail out these institutions

if the debt defaults. This debt is connected to predatory lending which the platform would allow

in the future. Predatory lending happens when a consumer takes a loan which they are unable to

pay back and the loan often includes interest rates that greatly increase over time making the loan

increasingly more expensive.

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Environmental protections are treated as an economic issue in the platform and have been

criticized for being extremely loose in favor of corporations. The platform calls for a general

review of every environmental regulation in order to make it easier for people to buy, sell and

rent homes. Labeling of genetically modified food is another regulation that is seen as onerous

for corporations and it also opposes labeling required on menus. The platform calls for

expanding fracking, oil pipelines and burying nuclear waste. Moreover, it suggests ignoring

international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement or the United

Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Environmental issues have gained more

attention in 2016. (Peters)

In 2016, Americans are more concerned than ever about environmental issues with 64

percent being concerned compared to 55 percent in 2015. However, the Republican platform

argues that, unlike the Democratic platform, climate change is not an urgent threat and does not

pose a serious national security threat. The platform also promises to disengage from

international accords such as the Paris climate agreement and any future ones. Instead of

investing in renewable sources of energy, clean coal is suggested as a climate-friendly alternative

to wind or solar power. (Peters)

Foreign Policy

Foreign policy is traditionally an area of strength for the Republican Party due to their

tough stance on America’s enemies. However, Republican critics claimed that Donald Trump’s

campaign changed the language used in an effort to appease Russian interests. While other areas

of foreign policy continued the precedent of previous platforms, Trump surrogates advocated for

removing the support of providing weapons to the government of Ukraine. This put the platform

at odds with almost every member of the Republican Party who had voted to send defensive

weapons to Ukraine. The passage was rewritten to “providing appropriate assistance” which is

more similar to President Barrack Obama’s policy to ease tensions with Russia. (Wilkinson)

4.2 Democratic Party Platform

The party platform from the Democrats in 2016 differs from their opponents in many

areas. The platform continues to support many long time Democratic issues including increased

restriction on gun ownership, environmental protections and a women’s right to abortion

services. Some issues received more aggressive language such as LBGT rights, prison reform,

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economic policy and immigration reform. The Party also included a more recent issue with

removing or limiting the importance of money in politics. The following section reviews some of

the more controversial elements of the Democratic Party platform and some of the changes

which were made due to the rise of Bernie Sanders. (Terkel)

Criticisms of the platform

Healthcare Positions

The Democratic Party platform states the need to protect a woman’s right to have safe

and legal abortion. In addition, the platform defends Planned Parenthood from efforts to defund

the organization for providing abortion services. In newly added language, it calls for the

overturning of the Hyde Amendment which bans the use of federal funds for abortions since it

was passed in 1976. The Democrats also added their belief that healthcare is a right and not a

privilege in the platform along with the support for the Affordable Care Act which was signed

during Barrack Obama’s term as President. Moreover, it calls for the expansion of healthcare

coverage for low-income people and reducing costs associated with the plans in the Affordable

Care Act. (Terkel)

Education

A proposal which Bernie Sanders made while running in the primary became part of the

Democratic platform for the first time. This issue arose from the increasing concern about the

cost of getting a higher education and the debt which students have after graduating. The

platform includes the commitment to provide free tuition for students whose family earns less

than $125,000 a year at any state university or public college. Despite not being the same policy

of tuition-free university for everyone, this was still a large progressive step for the Democratic

Party. However, critics argue that the cost would be too high and there is no cost control to keep

universities from raising the price. The policy proposal also affects every state differently

because states that have adequately funded their education system would receive more than other

state that have invested in higher education. (Carey)

Economic Policy

The minimum wage has been increasingly discussed in America as an important

economic issue due to stagnant wages for most Americans. The addition of this issue in the

platform stems from the influence that Bernie Sanders had on the party throughout the primary.

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The platform calls for raising the federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars and indexing it to

inflation. The current federal minimum wage is seven dollars and twenty-five cents which

proponents of the raise argue is not a livable wage. (Seitz-Wald CNBC) There are a few cities

which have taken the lead to raise their minimum wage but most states set their own minimum

wage. In contrast, the Republican platform leaves proscribes that the decision should be made at

the local or state level. (Terkel)

5 A Profile of the Electorate

This chapter focuses on the American public and which party they identify with or lean

towards supporting. The electorate is analyzed according to race, age, gender, income etc. The

aim of analyzing this data is to compare whether the candidates gain the support of their parties

traditional base. The data used is from a 2014 Pew Research survey of 25,010 people which took

place before any of the candidates had announced their candidacy and before the primaries.

(Wormald) Using the polling data from the primaries, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s

primary supporters are compared to the survey data of party identification. In the next part of this

thesis, the Pew Research survey used includes percentages for people who identify as

Republican, Democrat or Independent. Moreover, the data set also allows for people who might

not identify with a certain party but lean to one party or the other. The Republican and

Democratic leaning percentage is used, except for the first set of numbers, because it is a more

fair representation due to certain voters who do not consider themselves as part of a main party,

ie conservatives, libertarians, liberals or progressives. A relatively new phenomenon in American

politics is analyzed to expose the effects of negative partisanship on the electorate.

5.1 A Look into Party Affiliation

Looking at the population as a whole, thirty-two percent of people identify as a Democrat

which is in stark contrast to twenty-three percent who identify as Republicans. Moreover, forty-

eight percent lean towards the Democratic Party compared to only thirty-nine percent who lean

Republican. The electorate is more evenly divided when it comes to men leaning to a specific

party with both parties around forty-three to forty-four percent. However, it is more divided in

this poll which included 12,167 women voters where fifty-two percent lean Democratic while

thirty-six percent lean Republican. Ethnicity is a determining factor into which party the person

is more likely to support. The only race which is sees an even split is white voters where forty-

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nine percent of Caucasians lean Republican compared to forty percent Democratic. This is in

stark contrast to other ethnicities, Republicans receive low levels of support from every minority

in the survey. The highest percentage of support for Republicans comes from Hispanics with

twenty-six percent where fifty-six percent lean Democratic. Asian support is not far behind with

twenty-three percent leaning Republican and Democrats receive sixty-five percent from the same

group. African Americans are by far the most consistent supporters of Democrats with eighty

percent while eleven percent lean to the Republican Party. (Wormald)

According to age, older voters are more likely to lean towards the Republican Party but

voters, under 68 years old, lean Democrat. Moreover, voters from 18-33 year olds identify with

Democrats fifty-one percent to thirty-five percent for Republican. Compared to the Republican’s

best age demographic which are voters 69-86 year old, at only forty-seven percent to the

Democrat’s forty-three percent. Education is an area where Democrats receive the majority from

every demographic group over the Republicans. However, Democrats have a much larger

support from voters with more education especially voters with a post graduate degree at fifty-

seven to thirty-five percent. In comparison, voters with high school or less lean Democratic at

forty-seven percent while thirty-seven percent lean Republican. The best demographic for

Republicans are people with some college but they receive forty-two percent while Democrats

still edge them with forty-seven percent. (Wormald)

Republicans do well with people who are married with forty-eight percent while the

Democrats garner only forty-one percent. However, fifty-four percent of unmarried voters

support the Democratic Party with thirty-two percent for Republicans. With family income,

Democrats receive the majority of support from people making fewer than 75,000 dollars a year.

Households making over 75,000 dollars a year lean towards the Republican Party forty-eight to

forty-five percent. Democrats lead with fifty-four percent of households that earn 30,000 dollars

a year or less while just thirty-one percent lean Republican. Community type also shows a large

difference where fifty-seven percent of people who live in urban areas support Democrats to the

Republicans who have thirty-one percent. Suburban voters are the closest group with forty-three

percent leaning Republican and forty-five percent Democrat. However, rural residents are more

likely to be Republican with forty-seven percent but thirty-nine percent voting Democratic.

(Wormald)

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Religion or lack thereof is a highly polarized data set where there are huge differences

amongst different religions and along racial lines. The largest divide in favor of Republicans is

Mormons at seventy percent whereas only twenty-two percent lean Democratic. Not far behind is

white Evangelical Protestants at sixty-eight percent while Democrats garner twenty-two percent.

(Warmald) This data reveals the base of support for each party but it is not necessarily perfect at

predicting how people vote in elections. Voters who identify or lean towards one of the parties

are more likely to vote for that party but it cannot account for people who vote across party lines

such as self-identified Republicans who voted for President Barrack Obama. Presidential

candidates can use this information to identify which groups of people they should focus on

attracting. For example, candidates from the Democrat Party try to improve their standing with

older voters by discussing and supporting Social Security or Medicare which effect retired

people’s pensions and healthcare. (Wormald)

5.2 Hyper Partisanship

The 2016 presidential primary brought to the fore the issues of a growing ideological

divide between the parties. Partisanship might not be a new phenomenon in American politics,

however, the gulf between the ideologies of the two parties has grown exponentially in the late

twentieth century and into the beginning of the twenty-first. This polarization of the electorate

even extends into negative attitudes toward the ideologically opposing party. The data in the

following chapter uses surveys conducted more contemporaneously and the American National

Election Studies cumulative file which has collected electoral information since 1952.

There are a myriad of factors to consider when discussing partisanship including

ideological identification or policy issues. Firstly, higher percentages of Americans identify with

the ideological label of conservative or liberal. In 2000, only twenty-nine percent of Democrats

and twenty-one percent of Independents identified themselves as Liberal. This has increased to

forty-four percent of Democrats and twenty-one percent of Independents. In the same time

frame, Republicans who identify themselves as Conservative went from sixty-two to seventy-two

percent and Independents increased to thirty-three from twenty-nine percent. (Enten)While the

electorate is increasingly becoming polarized politically, the Congress is following suit with an

increase of partisanship.

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Using an analysis of Congressional voting patterns, politicians from opposing parties are

voting the same less than ever before in American history. The study includes information from

1949 to 2011 in order to show the historical trend of agreement or disagreement. Politicians in

1949 were more likely to vote similarly to politicians from the opposing party. The data shows

that the amount of agreement between the two parties remains relatively consistent but does not

dramatically increase until late into the twentieth century. Starting in the 1980’s, the rate of

disagreement begins a greater increase but it really explodes in the 1990’s and 2000’s. There is a

correlation between partisanship and the inability to introduce and pass legislation. Inevitably,

this has led a decrease in productivity in Congress and the gridlock also drives down the number

of bills which are introduced which in turn disincentivizes motivation for Congress to innovate.

This polarization has even shown itself in a splintering of the parties, for example, the

Tea Party which grew in popularity during President Obama’s term in office. The Tea Party ran

candidates against more moderate Republicans which, despite the outcome of the election, had

an effect of pushing them even further to the right. Moreover, part of the appeal of Tea Party

Republicans was the promise of holding firm on economic issues which meant that any

compromise was considered against the movement. The closest comparable group in the

Democratic Party would be the Progressive Caucus which has about eighty members in the

house. However, these groups were not the cause of partisanship but rather they are an indicator

of this rise in partisanship in the electorate and Congress. (Suh)

5.3 Negative Partisanship

With the increase of party identification, a more ominous trend reached new highs in

American politics. There is a rising antipathy between the opposing parties which is not a

completely new phenomenon but has intensified over time. In 1994, fifty-seven percent of

Democrats viewed Republicans unfavorably and sixteen percent very unfavorably. Similarly,

sixty-eight percent of Republicans reported to have unfavorable views of Democrats while

seventeen percent had very unfavorable. These same views have greatly increased by 2014 when

seventy-nine percent of Democrats viewed Republicans unfavorably and thirty-eight percent

very unfavorably. This is also true for the Republican Party which in the same timeframe had

eighty-two percent of Republicans having unfavorable views of Democrats and forty-three

percent very unfavorable. Moreover, the percentage of Democrats who believe that the

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Republicans are a threat to the nation is twenty-seven and it is even higher with thirty-six percent

of Republicans who believe that Democratic policies are injurious to the well-being of the

country. (Fingerhut)

This even extends into the everyday lives of people who identify as consistently liberal or

conservative. Half of consistent conservatives and thirty-five percent of consistent liberals

believe that it is important to live in communities where the majority of people share their

political views. These same people sometimes also choose their friends based on whether they

share their political view. Sixty-three percent of consistent conservatives and forty-nine percent

of consistent liberals have a majority of their friends who share their views. It goes even further

when looking at relationships in a family. Less than one-in-ten Americans would be vocally

disappointed if a family member married someone with an opposing political view. However,

looking at consistent conservatives and liberals produces a stark contrast where thirty percent of

conservatives and twenty-three percent of liberals would voice their concerns to a family

member. The effect of negative partisanship has been to make compromise and coming together

to reach a common goal more difficult because consistent conservatives or liberals are the base

of support for their respective parties. Over three-in-ten consistent conservative or liberal believe

that their only their views should get everything they want in a policy dispute. (Fingerhut)

While a recent development, there have been times of great political polarization

especially during the civil rights movement during the 1960’s. Similarly, the trend has some root

causes due to divisions such as race, religion and the role of the government. Most negative

partisanship emanates from the bases of both parties and is proliferated through partisan media

outlets which feed into the bases’ confirmation bias. The internet age has only amplified the echo

chamber which partisans can live in without hearing any dissenting opinions. While there is still

mainstream media, partisan voters have many websites to choose from which write stories aimed

at confirming their pre-existing beliefs. Moreover, the internet also has many websites which

create fake stories which their supporters believe or spread on social media sites.

This highly partisan attitude in the electorate influences the behavior of the politicians

running for office. While there has always been groups of people who disagree since the

founding of the United States, there is no definitive answer to the origin of this highly polarized

atmosphere in the 21st century. However, it seems to be a combination of partisan media which

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demonizes political opponents and the voters’, who consume that media, expectation that

politicians should fight more adamantly against the other political party. The hyperbolic attacks

of partisan media also creates an atmosphere where compromise is seen as capitulation or

betrayal of core principles. A great example of this is Marco Rubio’s work on a comprehensive

immigration reform bill, neither party received everything which they wanted but it aimed at

solving America’s immigration problem in a fair way for both sides. However, Rubio had to

distance himself from the bill because the unpopularity among his base of any kind of

compromise and partisan media attacking him for seemingly working with President Obama.

6 The lead up to the 2016 Republican presidential primary

The presidential primary officially begins on February 1, 2016 with the Iowa caucus but

it truly began with the announcement of the first candidate which was Ted Cruz on March 23,

2015 and ended with John Kasich ending his campaign on May 4, 2016. There were 17

candidates, who garnered enough support or made the proper filings with the FEC that entered

the presidential primary race. The next part of the thesis examines the beginnings of the

campaign and debates which happen prior to the primary and caucuses.

6.1 Pre-debate campaign

Before any vote had been casted, a few frontrunners emerged from the field such as Jeb

Bush and Scott Walker. Jeb Bush started as the early favorite due to his family legacy of having

a father and older brother who had already been president of the United States. He started very

strongly in terms of fundraising by bringing in $118 million dollars by the end of 2015.

Moreover, his campaign staff was viewed as the best and most experienced. Scott Walker’s

campaign from the beginning was seen as a strong contender with a large staff of 90 people and

an aggressive advertising strategy focusing on the early primary states. He was a large benefactor

of Charles and David Koch who are the biggest campaign contributors on the Republican side.

(O’Keefe) However, his campaign ended before any votes were cast due to low poll numbers and

lackluster performances in the debates.

The 2016 election is the first in which outside groups outspent many of the candidates’

campaigns. Therefore, fundraising for campaigns was not as important as establishing one or

more superpacs and making connections with high profile donors who can fund a superpac

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without limitations on campaign contributions. A superpac is an organization which raises

money on behalf of a candidate but cannot coordinate with them and the money raised is used to

fund advertisements to support the candidate. It allows candidates to raise more money than

would normally be allowed under the law. Almost half of the money raised during the

presidential primary campaigns came from only 400 families. (O’Keefe)

6.2 A Controversial Announcement

On June 16, 2015, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president inside Trump

Tower in New York City. Considered 121st richest man in America, Trump’s announcement was

unusual in terms of its opulence. Typically, candidates have a rally in their local district with

their loyal supporters in order to show that they are similar to the common man. Donald Trump

on the other hand rode a golden escalator to the podium where he gave his first stump speech.

The speech was met with controversy and ambivalence due to the self-aggrandizing and

offensive nature. Trump’s speech was unusual for political campaigns in that it was mostly

unscripted and at times incoherent. Many pundits and fellow candidates dismissed his chances of

winning the nomination. However, part of his appeal to voters is the fact that he does not give

scripted speeches which can seem poll tested and he says things which are politically incorrect.

Some of these remarks which make him popular with part of the electorate are offensive to other

voters. Trump was also criticized for sayings things without any facts behind them and for

repeatedly boasting about his wealth and properties.

The most infamous line from the speech was prefaced with the assertion that Mexico and

other countries send their criminals and unwanted people to the United States. Mexican

immigrants were the main target with Trump saying "When Mexico sends its people, they're not

sending their best. They're not sending you. They're not sending you. They're sending people that

have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs.

They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people." The comments

came with considerable backlash and repercussions for his business with Macy’s, Nascar, NBC

Universal, Univision, Televisa, Serta and others who all backed out of business dealings with

Trump or his properties. Other GOP contenders also derided his remarks such as Rubio who

said “Trump’s comments are not just offensive and inaccurate, but also divisive.” However, most

Republicans either defended his comments or mildly disagreed even with Hispanic leaders

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asking for a more aggressive response. In response to the backlash, Trump defended his

comments saying he is concerned about safety and wants to protect America from Mexican

criminals.

Just over a month later, Donald Trump made the news at the Family Leadership Summit

in Ames, Iowa when he said that Senator John McCain is only a hero because he was captured.

He continued with saying he likes people who were not captured. His remarks seemed to be in

retribution for McCain’s comments on television that Trump’s rally in Phoenix was full of crazy

people because of their enthusiasm against illegal immigration and building a wall along the

United States Mexico border. The reaction from most fellow party members was to condemn

Trump’s comments but some refused to comment or only stated their support for veterans in the

case of presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz. However, military and veteran groups were

more vociferous in their condemnation and support for any soldier who served the United States

honorably. Critics also pointed to Trump’s multiple deferments which he received to avoid

serving in the Vietnam War. Trump tried to clarify his comments but continued his attack on

John McCain on Twitter and in interviews on television.

Later in the campaign, a staple of the Trump campaign’s strategy was holding large

rallies in big venues allowing a large group of supporters to see him speak live. These events

were mostly well attended by supporters but also a large number of protesters. Trump’s

controversies started from right from the beginning during his announcement of his candidacy

with allegations of paying actors to fill out his crowd and cheer for him. Emails surfaced

showing that a New York casting agency was looking for actors to attend his announcement

while wearing t-shirts and hold signs for $50 a person. The Trump campaign denied paying

actors and even the existence of the casting agency. Extra Mile, the casting company, refused to

answer questions from the media but at least two people were identified as actors who were paid

to attend. The campaign contended that Trump does not need to pay for support because he

draws large crowds at all of his speaking events. There was also a question as to how many

people were in attendance with Trump claiming thousands of people while most neutral

observers estimated only around three hundred. (Walker) The practice is called astroturfing with

Hillary Clinton also caught driving supporters to an Iowa café to pretend to chat with everyday

customers.

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6.3 Campaign Rallies

Campaign rallies are held by every major candidate to raise awareness of their candidacy

and they also allow their supporters to meet them in person. Typically, these events are just a

chance to hear the candidate speak but rallies held by Donald Trump have been plagued by

violence from protesters against him and by his fervent supporters. Critics, including other

Republicans, have blamed the violence on Trump because of his inflammatory rhetoric and

response to the violence. In October 2015, Trump supporters at two separate events shoved,

kicked, took signs from protestors and spit in their faces. Donald Trump complained that

political correctness makes people be nice to protestors and there are no consequences for their

actions. In December of the same year, a black protestor in Alabama was punched, kicked and

choked. Trump defended the violence by his supporters and claiming what the protestor was

doing was disgusting. Protestors continued to be thrown out and/or accosted by supporters,

security and campaign staff. In Las Vegas, some individual supporters screamed “sieg heil” at a

black protestor who was being escorted out of a rally. Photographers and journalists have also

had physical confrontations while covering Trump rallies. The media is contained in a fenced

area during the rallies and a Time photographer was slammed to the ground by a secret service

agent after a dispute over leaving the media area. Even right-wing media had problems with the

Trump campaign manager who physically grabbed the reporter. Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s

campaign manager, also had a confrontation with protestors when he helped a security guard

physically remove a protestor in Tuscon, Arizona. Rallies in both North Carolina and Arizona

had instances of supporters punching protestors even when law enforcement officials were

already removing them. With Trump not condemning the violence, the security situation

worsened with protests and his supporters becoming more violent. In Chicago, Trump had to

cancel an event due to a clash between supporters and protestors in March 2016. The violence

continued even after Trump had already won the Republican nomination. (Mathis-Lilley)

Despite the fiery rhetoric and violence, the campaign announcement and rallies had a

beneficial effect on candidate Trump by bringing attention to him. The media covered all of his

campaign events in the hope of capturing something controversial on tape. The main motivator

of this coverage was the ratings from covering his campaign and the viewers. Regardless of

whether they supported him or not, people watched the news reports and Donald Trump received

a lot of extra visibility despite the negative nature of the coverage. In contrast to other

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candidates, Trump’s rallies were often televised in full by the media and his rivals were

overshadowed by his events. There was a vicious circle between coverage of his campaign and

protestors where the more attention he got, the more people went to protest his rhetoric. (Mathis-

Lilley) Moreover, anti-Trump protestors were sometimes violent or clashed with his supporters

which led to Trump speaking out against all protestors even the peaceful ones.

7 2016 primary debates

Debates and town halls are held by both parties before and during the primaries. The

town hall format allows voters to ask questions directly to the candidates and they are more

informal than a debate. While both formats employ members of the media as moderators, debates

differ in that all of the candidates are on stage together and usually interact with each other. Both

formats give voters a chance to see the policy proposals of the different candidates and how they

deal with answering questions but they are also a platform for the candidate to differentiate

themselves from each other by attacking rivals’ records. The 2016 primary debates were no

different with many candidates describing their many successes and pointing out their rivals

failures. While the Democratic debates were generally cordial, the Republican debates were

much more aggressive due in part to the inclusion of Donald Trump. There were a total of fifteen

Republican debates or town halls and the Democrats held twelve throughout the primaries.

7.1 Democratic Debates

Bernie Sanders criticized Hillary Clinton’s cozy relationship with Wall Street and

corporations where she received large speaking fees. Sanders demanded that she release the

transcripts of her speeches but he was less interested in the email scandal in which she was

investigated by Congress and other law enforcement entities. Hillary Clinton argued that she was

the best candidate because she had the best chance to win in the general election. Part of her

argument revolved around her more centrist policies which contrasted Bernie Sanders’ policy

proposals that were considered to be unpopular with the general election electorate. While the

debates were civil, there were still many heated arguments over policy disagreements such as the

auto industry bailout. Bernie Sanders voted against the bailout which saved the industry because

of his objections to giving taxpayer money to corporation but Clinton defended it by pointing out

the four million jobs which were saved. She criticized his defense of gun manufacturers from

being held liable for gun deaths which he said would essentially lead to a ban on the right to bear

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arms. Bernie Sanders also reiterated his rejection of trade agreements especially the TPP or also

known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership which he did not support because of the detriment that it

could pose to American workers. (Collinson) Clinton had supported other trade agreements and

even supported the TPP in the past but she claimed that she does not support them now. The

Democratic debates were heavy on substance and policy disagreements but the Republican

debates contained more excitement in terms of controversy.

7.2 Republican Debates

Due to the large field of candidates, the Republican Party held two debates on the same

night where the candidates with the lowest support in the polls were in the first debate. The most

popular candidates took part in the primetime debate which was crucial any candidate’s

campaign to be taken seriously by voters. (Allen) The only exception to this was Carly Fiorina

who successfully moved up to the primetime debate. The first debate set the stage for the

following debates but overall was consistent with previous years because there were no huge

gaffes or controversies. However, the aftermath of the first debate was more interesting than the

debate itself with one candidate making a name for himself for his brash style.

Donald Trump is outspoken on many issues but he is even more aggressive in attacking

anyone critical of him or whom he believes is against him. After the first debate, Trump took

umbrage to a question posed to him by Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly. She asked him about

previous comments that he made about women calling them fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting

animals. The last remark was made to a woman who asked to leave a meeting in order to pump

breastmilk for her child. While speaking to CNN the day after the first debate, Trump said that

the question was ridiculous and that she had blood coming out of her eyes or wherever. An

assertion that was seen as blaming the questions from the moderator, Megyn Kelly, on her

menstrual cycle. All of the candidates except for Ted Cruz called for an apology which Trump

refused to do and contended that he meant to say nose instead of wherever. A month later, he

also attacked fellow presidential candidate Carly Fiorina in a Rolling Stone interview by

questioning whether America could vote for someone with a face like hers. (Chavez)

Megyn Kelly was not the only member of the news media to have a confrontation with

Donald Trump during the primary. Also in August, Trump had Jose Ramos of Univision forcibly

removed from a press conference in move seen as revenge for Univision dropping coverage of

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Trump’s beauty pageant. In November of the same year, Trump did an offensive impression of a

New York Times reporter who suffers from a congenital disability. However, Trump later denied

knowing that the reporter was disabled but it did not stop many critics from voicing their concern

over his apparent mocking of a person with disabilities.

The media was not the only target of Donald Trump’s attacks; his rival candidates

received a lot of his aggression. Following the first debate, Trump amplified his attacks on his

fellow Republicans and even gave them derogatory nicknames. Here are some examples of these

nicknames: Little Marco for Marco Rubio, Lying Ted for Ted Cruz, and Low Energy Jeb for Jeb

Bush. The use of the word liar or directly saying that another person is lying had been something

of a taboo in politics. Politicians usually use euphemisms instead of using the word lie in an

attempt to not be too personal. Historically, calling someone a liar was a great offense which

even precipitated a duel due to the nature of the word impugning the character of the other

person. However, Trump consistently called his opponents liars and even said that Ted Cruz is

the biggest liar and this type of attack spread to the other candidates who also openly called

rivals a liar. The normal decorum of a presidential candidate seems to have disappeared in the

2016 race with rivals using words such as jackass, pussy, and unstable to describe their

opponents (Zezina) The most outrageous example of the degradation of politics happened prior

and during the March 3rd debate. Prior to the debate, Marco Rubio was speaking at a rally to his

supporters when he quipped about Donald Trump having small hands and implying that

something else is also small. During the debate, Trump showed his hands to the audience and

stated that he has no problem down there. (Lee) Despite being the first candidate to speak about

his genitals during a debate, Trump continued to be popular with voters and outperform other

candidates in the debates. Donald Trump excelled in the debates using a mixture of insults and

interruptions.

The debate success is significant for any campaign but a poor showing can end a

campaign very easily. Marco Rubio pitched himself as a new generation of conservative but his

ambitious campaign was hurt in New Hampshire by an embarrassing moment in a recent debate.

When Rubio was challenged by Governor Chris Christie on his accomplishments, he defended

himself adequately. However, Christie pressed him on the issue and Rubio repeated the same

sentence which led Christie to label him as a typically politician with memorized talking points.

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It only got worse when Rubio continued to repeat the same phrase. Being booed by the crowd

was only the start, voters turned against Rubio because of his inability to seem genuine by being

too robotic in his delivery. Rubio could not rid himself of the perception and disappointed in the

New Hampshire primary where he was in contention to win before the debate. (Peters,Barbaro)

However, some candidates take advantage of the stage given to them and increase their

popularity with voters.

Carly Fiorina surged to a high of second place in polling in September with eighteen

percent support largely due to her performances in the early debates. First starting in the

undercard debate, she excelled against her rivals and was rewarded with enough support to reach

the main stage for the second debate. Her anti-abortion rhetoric helped her gain momentum with

Republican voters, especially religious and pro-life advocates. Her biggest moment came during

the September 16th Republican debate where she described a video of abortion and put forth her

plan to defund Planned Parenthood. Despite the fact the tape turned out to be fake, it still spoke

to her base and increased her standing in the party. However, Fiorina’s campaign suffered due to

the attention paid by the media to Donald Trump and other candidates. Her inability to generate

controversy or media attention and a large gap between debates led to her waning poll numbers.

(Graham, What happened) She then dropped out of the race after the New Hampshire primary

due to poor performances in the first two contests in which she garnered only one delegate.

Ben Carson ran an outsider campaign to become president by leaning on his experience

as a surgeon who was not tainted by Washington politics. Carson surprised many political

observers by leading all other candidates in polling taken November 4th and polling well through

much of his early campaign. However, there was an unforeseen incident which hurt his standing

with Republican voters. This incident was the terrorist attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo in

early November combined with a critical article about his longtime advisor Armstrong Williams.

The article described the difficulties that his advisor had trying to teach Ben Carson about

foreign policy issues which after the attack became a major issue for voters. Moreover,

Armstrong Williams was quoted saying that Carson needs weekly conferences to teach him but

that he seems incapable of learning about foreign policy. (Engel) Even before these events, Ben

Carson had made numerous statements which were quite unusual. For example, he told reporters

his theory about the pyramids which he believes were built by the biblical Joseph to store grain.

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He also believes that the theory of evolution was created because Charles Darwin was influenced

by Satan. These comments also help to explain his difficulties of receiving support from groups

other than evangelical Christians. Additionally, questions arose to the authenticity of stories from

many of his books which describe him trying to stab a friend and being a violent teen. (Waldman

WaPo) His campaign was successful despite these beliefs but the increasing media scrutiny and

his lack of foreign policy knowledge damaged his candidacy. In a November debate, this lack of

knowledge was on display when he erroneously claimed that China was fighting in the Syrian

Civil War. (Engel) Ben Carson suspended his campaign after Super Tuesday having gained only

eight delegates throughout the primaries.

The former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush, started the campaign with a high level of

confidence running as an establishment candidate. Moreover, Bush raised enormous amounts of

funding through his political action committees which he used to finance an advertising strategy.

While successfully raising money gave him an early edge, his campaign stuttered due to his

distaste for political stagecraft. His inability to distill policy stances into more consumable

information for voters during town hall meetings and debates alienated many voters. Bush also

stumbled when asked whether he would invade Iraq similar to his brother George W. Bush

which is a predictable question that he should have expected. However, he answered that he

would have invaded Iraq but later clarified that knowing what we know now, he would not. It

was a question that Bush should have expected but his awkward answers did not help his

campaign. Another factor in the demise of his campaign was his unwillingness to bend to

popular opinion. He supported many common sense policies such as comprehensive immigration

reform and national education reform. While other candidates used fiery rhetoric against

immigrants, Bush held to his policy stances and refused to embrace a more aggressive strategy.

Bush ended his campaign after a poor finish in the South Carolina primary and blamed his failure

on his character. He explained that he refused to join other candidates in personal attacks and he

stood by some of his policy proposals even though they were unpopular with the Republican

base. (O’Keefe)

The presidential debates of both parties were almost polar opposites of each other,

partially due to the large field of Republican candidates and the tone with which they addressed

their rivals. The Democratic debates had the benefit of only two candidates which allowed them

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to get into more policy detail on individual issues whereas the Republican debates were limited

in the amount of time to respond to questions. Republican candidates had to condense their

complicated policy proposals into a quick talking point which voters could understand. Jeb Bush

suffered from this format because his pragmatic approach to issues was difficult to convey in a

short sound bite. Moreover, issues which require a certain amount of nuance were easily attacked

by rivals because of the lack of time to fully explain. Some of the Republican candidates

flourished in the format because they were able to speak in generalities without the need to get

specific and used their time to attack their rivals. Both Trump and Cruz excelled in this area

because they were able to attack other candidates on complicated issues and the time limit

hindered their rivals’ ability to defend themselves. The Republican debates also received more

media attention because of the ratings garnered by people who seemed to enjoy watching

derisive back and forth between the candidates. While the Democratic candidates disagreed on

important issues, they did not venture into personal attacks and they kept the discussion going in

a more productive manner. Similarly, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson disappointed in the debates

because they were averse to interrupting other candidates which made them seem weak in

comparison to their more forceful adversaries.

8 2016 presidential primary

Officially, the 2016 primary season starts January 1st and continues until June 14th when

the candidates from both parties have been finalized. The first caucus takes place in Iowa on

February 1st while the last primary is the Democratic primary for the District of Columbia on

June 14th. Leading into the Iowa caucus, there were three Republican candidates who emerged

ahead of the rest: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. On the Democratic side, Hillary

Clinton was the clear favorite with Bernie Sanders the only competition for her. The winner of

the Iowa Caucus gains an advantage over their rivals allowing them to start momentum for their

campaign and increases their ability to fundraise.

8.1 An Overview of the Republican Primary

The last poll before the Iowa Caucus was the CNN/ORC which Donald Trump led with

41 percent support. Trump’s nearest competitor was Ted Cruz who garnered only 18% which is

still more than the rest of the field where nobody else received double digit numbers. However,

Ted Cruz won the Iowa Caucus by over three percent of the vote despite the national polls

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including the previously mentioned one. Donald Trump finished second at 24% with Marco

Rubio right behind him receiving 23% of the vote. (Agiesta) There are a number of factors which

contributed to Donald Trump’s lower than expected performance. A large part of the Iowan

Republican electorate identifies as Evangelical and Trump’s lack of an adequate ground game.

The latter point is the campaign’s ability to motivate and get their voters to the polls on

the Election Day. The biggest campaigns spend large amounts of money on an organization

structure which enables them to have employees or volunteers to go door to door and speak to

potential voters. The campaigns also rent office space in counties around the state in order to call

voters and organize meetings or rallies in support of the candidate. Donald Trump’s campaign

did not invest money into voter outreach and turnout efforts before the Caucus, instead relying

on his popularity and/or rallies to reach voters with his message. Following the results of the

Caucus, Donald Trump admitted that he could have done much better if he had invested in the

proper infrastructure. (DelReal) The former issue that Donald Trump struggled with was his

difficulty in courting the Evangelical vote in Iowa and eventually elsewhere. Evangelicals are not

a large portion of the population in Iowa, however, they do disproportionately make up the

majority of the Republican primary electorate.

While Ted Cruz was victorious in the first caucus, Donald Trump decisively carried the

next three in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Trump won all of these contests with

over thirty-two percent in both of the primaries and over forty-five percent of the Nevada

Caucus. The nearest rivals were only able to attain low twenty percent support and picking up

only a handful of delegates in the process. Donald Trump finished the Super Tuesday primaries

on March 1st as the clear leader while Ted Cruz stayed in second place winning three states.

Marco Rubio won his first state with the Minnesota Republican Caucus and finished second in

Virginia while Jon Kasich performed poorly except for Vermont where he narrowly lost to

Donald Trump. The following primaries after Super Tuesday were split between Ted Cruz and

Donald Trump who lengthened their lead over the rest of the field. After the results on March

15th, Marco Rubio decided to suspend his campaign having only won three primaries but losing

his home state of Florida hurt any chances that his campaign had left. On the other hand, Jon

Kasich, despite disappointing results in previous primaries, continued his campaign with only

one victory in his home state of Ohio.

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At this point, it became clear that Donald Trump was the likely to emerge victorious with

the Republican nomination. In a desperate attempt to stop him, the Cruz and Kasich campaigns

worked together to try to deny Trump the necessary delegates needed to win the nomination.

This was done by Kasich dropping out of the May 3rd Indiana primary and Cruz reciprocating by

doing the same in Oregon and New Mexico. Ultimately, the alliance failed to stop Trump who

finished with 1,725 delegates which is more than enough to secure the nomination. Donald

Trump was officially nominated during the Republican National Convention in July.

(Burns,Byler)

8.2 An Overview of the Democratic Primary

From six candidates, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders emerged as the early favorites to

win the nomination. Only Martin O’Malley, from the remaining candidates, was able to last until

the Iowa Caucus. However, O’Malley suspended his campaign immediately after a dismal result

of less than one percent of the vote in Iowa. Hillary Clinton won a narrow victory in Iowa which

saw the surprising second place finisher lose by only two-tenths of a percentage point. Bernie

Sanders followed up that performance with a large victory in the New Hampshire Primary which

put him ahead of Clinton in delegate count. However, Clinton regained the delegate lead after the

Nevada and South Carolina primaries. On March 1st 2016, eleven states held their primaries,

Super Tuesday, where a total of 865 pledged delegates were at stake. On Super Tuesday, Hillary

Clinton performed well in southern states and Massachusetts while Bernie Sanders won the rest

of the northern states and all of the western ones. Clinton continued to receive her largest

victories in southern states during the March primaries and caucuses. During late March and

early April, Bernie Sanders gained momentum winning seven out of the eight primaries held.

However, Sander’s campaign suffered defeats in high delegate count races in New York and

later California which ended his campaign with 1,865 delegates and twenty-three states won.

Hillary Clinton’s 2,842 delegates and victories in thirty-four states gave her the nomination of

the Democratic Party. (Silver)

8.3 Dirty Politics

Primaries are known to bring out the worst in many politicians even in the modern era

with constant media attention paid to the competition. Some of the worst examples of dirty

politics have happened in the South Carolina primary. For example, John McCain’s first run to

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be the Republican presidential candidate in 2000 was marked with controversy. Following a

victory in the New Hampshire primary, a telephone poll asked South Carolinians whether they

would have a problem supporting a candidate who had fathered an illegitimate black child.

Furthermore, a whisper campaign circulated rumors that his wife was addicted to drugs and that

he was a traitor while serving in Vietnam. All of which, John McCain denied and his illegitimate

black child was actually his adopted daughter from Bangladesh. However, the truth about these

rumors did not help as McCain lost the primary to George W. Bush whose campaign was blamed

for starting the false rumors. Another example was Mitt Romney’s successful campaign in 2008

for the nomination. South Carolina Republicans received fake Christmas cards which contained

damaging quotes from the Book of Mormon that supposedly came of the Romney family.

(Stracqualursi) These tactics often use people’s prejudices against different religions or races in

order to slander rival candidates. The next part details some of the examples of dirty politics

from the 2016 race.

Ted Cruz’s campaign from the outset used many tactics which were considered to be

questionable at best. Before the Iowa Caucus, the Cruz campaign sent official looking letters to

Republican voters warning them about an Election alert and that they were in violation of not

participating enough in elections. However, America does not have a law which requires

participation in elections such as Australia, for example. Inside the envelope, there was a list of

names with scores and grades next to them. The mailer also warned that a follow-up notice

would come after the caucus to possibly scare or shame people into participating in the caucus.

On the night of the caucus, Ted Cruz’s campaign posted a message from an erroneous CNN

story that Ben Carson was planning on dropping out of the race. CNN corrected the story almost

immediately due to the misunderstanding with Carson’s campaign but Cruz used this as an

opportunity to gain more voters. Later, Cruz apologized and denied responsibility but Carson

criticized him for using dirty tactics. In an attempt to hurt Marco Rubio’s chances with voter, the

Cruz campaign photoshopped a picture of Rubio and President Barrack Obama shaking hands

and titled it the Rubio-Obama trade pact. (Murdock) Moreover, a video surfaced from the Cruz

campaign which showed Marco Rubio insulting the bible by saying that no answers can be found

inside. Both of these instances were attributed to an aide Rick Tyler who subsequently was

forced to resign but this did not deter critics from pointing out the hypocrisy of running a

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Christian values campaign while deceiving voters. (Stein) The candidate which benefitted the

most from negative tactics was Donald Trump.

Trump made news numerous times during the primary campaign by personally attacking

Ted Cruz’s family and religion. During the campaign, he continually referred to Ted Cruz as a

liar but he went further by questioning his faith numerous times. Cruz was also accused of not

being eligible to run for president by Trump because of being born in Canada. Similar to how

Trump questioned President Barrack Obama’s eligibility, he also pushed the theory that Cruz

cannot be president even after evidence was presented to the contrary. Family members are

usually off limits in politics and elections because it does not contribute to the discussion on the

issues. However, the 2016 Republican primary included a few examples which started with a

superpac supporting Ted Cruz posting nude photos of Donald Trump’s wife. While Cruz was not

directly responsible, Trump personally responded by posted an unflattering picture of Cruz’s

wife next to his with the text saying a picture is worth a thousand words inferring that she is

ugly. Cruz's father also became a target of Donald Trump when he talked about the possibility of

Rafael Cruz’s involvement in the John F. Kennedy assassination. A picture printed in the

National Enquirer supposedly shows Rafael Cruz meeting with Lee Harvey Oswald. The picture

could not be corroborated and Cruz’s campaign denied that it ever happened but Trump spoke

about the picture anyway using it against Ted Cruz. (Blake)

Since its inception, social media has been used by politicians to get their message out to

supporters or potential ones. The 2016 primary is no exception especially with Donald Trump

who is an avid user of Twitter. However, he has a propensity to cause controversy even in 140

characters. In November 2015, Trump retweeted a statistic which claims that 81 percent of white

murder victims are killed by African Americans. The statistic is false because the actual rate is

14 percent and the crime bureau cited in the statistic was fabricated. The origin of the tweet came

from a known Neo-Nazi account, a fact which Trump claimed ignorance of. However, that was

not an isolated event throughout the primary and into the presidential campaign, Trump

retweeted numerous tweets from Neo-Nazis and white supremacists. In the space of a month, he

had retweeted three different white supremacist tweets from accounts which did not hide the

agenda of the users. Moreover, Trump refused to denounce the racism of former Ku Klux Klan

grand wizard David Duke who endorsed him. Even when confronted with the information, he

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still refused and later blamed the refusal on a faulty earpiece. As of February 2016, Trump had

retweeted known white supremacists 75 times according to Little Bird which analyzes Twitter

content.

The 2016 Republican primary needs to be examined in combination with the effects of

negative and hyper-partisanship. Since the 1980’s, voters have become more virulent against

supporters and politicians of the opposing party. This attitude has infected the politicians

themselves who use more charged rhetoric in order to placate their supporters. In previous

elections, politicians only alluded to their rivals being liars using vague language and semantics

instead of outright accusing them. In the 2016 Republican primary, these trends came to a head

where the Republican candidates openly called their fellow candidates liars. Moreover, the

candidates often interrupted and attacked each other personally. This had a negative effect on the

traditional candidates who had been involved in politics for a long period of time. Jeb Bush had

difficulty responding to rivals who repeatedly interrupted or insulted him because he was not

accustomed to that type of behavior. Another possible explanation is that Bush anticipated that

voters would be turned off by that kind of behavior which he warned Trump of during a debate

that he cannot insult his way to the presidency. Of course, these kind of tactics are not new in

primary elections but usually campaign workers do the attacking which allows the candidate to

stay out of the dirty side of politics and focus on policy. There are also new avenues for

candidates to get their message out such as Twitter but it can also bring criticism onto the user.

Possibly, the biggest benefactor of the political climate was Donald Trump who won the

Republican nomination. His campaign was full of controversy from the very beginning and the

media coverage which he received only amplified his message. Rather than being offended by

his use of insults, voters felt relieved to hear a politician speak differently than a typical

politician. The increase of partisanship in the electorate led to voters forgiving him for

retweeting white supremacist groups, for example, because he voiced their hatred for the

Democratic Party. Moreover, the politicians who tried to stay towards the center of the

ideological spectrum failed to garner enough support among the electorate. With both parties

moving to the extremes, bi-partisan policy proposals were a liability for moderate Republicans

who had to defend their support for bills such as comprehensive immigration reform.

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These unsavory tactics are not limited to Republican campaigns but it can also be found

in Democratic campaigns. In 2008, Barrack Obama’s successful run in the Democratic primaries

against Hillary Clinton came with many accusations that the Clinton campaign was using unfair

tactics. There were instances of voter suppression especially in Nevada where caucus locations

closed early in an effort to limit Obama supporters. Moreover, Clinton’s campaign released a

photo of Obama in African dress in an apparent attempt to push the narrative that Obama was not

born in America and that he is Muslim. (Salon Goodman) In 2016, some of the same tactics from

the previous race were used to great effect against Bernie Sanders. Moreover, the Democratic

National Committee which organizes the primaries and debates seemed to favor the Clinton

campaign. Bernie Sanders accused the DNC of purging voters from his home borough,

Brooklyn, in an effort to help Clinton win New York. There were also problems with the election

in Arizona where polling places were decreased to sixty for over a million people. In the case of

Arizona, the polling places were decided by local Republicans and Clinton’s campaign denied

any wrongdoing during the campaign.

Accusations of favoritism were confirmed after the primary had already finished when

WikiLeaks released the emails from the Democratic National Committee. Running as an outsider

from the Democratic establishment, Bernie Sanders worried the national party who preferred

Clinton. Officials in the DNC discussed with the Clinton campaign using Bernie Sanders’ faith

or lack thereof against him and other emails show the cooperation to help Clinton. (Goodman

Huff) Other emails showed that the DNC was giving the money intended for down-ballot

candidates to the Clinton campaign and not to Sanders. The debate schedule was also set in favor

of Clinton because they organized the debates on weekends or other times when there is low

television viewership. (Salnato Observer) While there was no clear evidence of vote fixing, it is

evident that the DNC worked to ensure that Clinton would win the nomination. After the release

of the emails, the head of the DNC was forced to resign due to the favoritism shown to Clinton.

The emails came out on the first day of the Democratic convention where supporters of Bernie

Sanders protested the collusion between the Clinton campaign and DNC.

The Democratic Party’s use of superdelegates was also criticized because of their

undemocratic nature and extra power which they possess. Superdelegates are current or former

Democratic politicians who can choose to support any candidate at the national convention. They

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make up a disproportionate amount of the total delegates and they are not required to follow the

results of their states’ primary. There are 4,765 total delegates and 714 of these are

superdelegates. The vast majority of the superdelegates supported Clinton in 2016 and many of

these delegates openly stated their support at the beginning of the primary. This had an adverse

effect on Bernie Sanders’ campaign by giving Clinton the lead before any vote had been cast. It

also diminished some of Bernie Sanders’ victories in state primaries. For example, the New

Hampshire primary ended with fifteen delegates going to Sanders and nine for Hillary Clinton.

However, New Hampshire has six superdelegates who all pledged their support for Clinton. This

made the result a tie even though Sanders received over 50,000 more votes in the state primary.

The 2016 Democratic presidential primary can be viewed in the historical context

provided in the first part of the thesis. The early nomination processes such as the King Caucus

were criticized because party bosses possessed too much power. The 2016 race was also

criticized after the release of the DNC emails which showed that the playing field was tilted to

help Hillary Clinton get the nomination. The revelation that the Head of the Democratic National

Committee was actively working against other candidates shows the lack of transparency and

impartiality in the nomination process. Moreover, superdelegates have too much power in

deciding the nominee and they ensure that the Democratic Party nominates their preferred

candidate despite the outcome of the primaries.

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9 Conclusion

The 2016 presidential primaries finished with two candidates receiving their parties’

nomination for the general election. However, the path to that nomination was defined by the

recent trends in the American electorate and the history of the process. Since the founding of the

United States of America, the nomination process for presidential candidates has evolved in both

parties. The original system of Congress choosing candidates for president gave way to primaries

where the public was involved. However, the party bosses still had power to effect the outcome

of the nomination which led to more reform to improve the process. The historical part can be

seen in the Democratic primary where the leader of the party can influence the election in favor

of one candidate. Despite reforms introduced to make the system more transparent, the

Democratic Party still utilizes superdelegates to influence the outcome of the primaries. This

hinders the chances of candidates from outside the Democratic Party establishment and favors

their preferred candidate. The Democratic National Committee email leaks also exposed how

leaders of the party can exert their power to help one candidate over others. The purpose of

reforms to the primary system were meant to provide transparency and ensure that the electorate

chooses the nominee.

On the Republican side, the primary was defined by extreme rhetoric which appealed to

the highly partisan trend which has grown in both parties’ bases. The electorate’s increased

acceptance of this behavior allowed the politicians to personally attack their rivals. Moreover,

moderate Republican candidates failed to rally support behind their candidacies because they did

not pander to the extreme right of their party. These candidates focused on criticizing their

opponents’ record instead of their personal issues. The media also contributed to the lack of

civility by continuously over-covering candidates who made the most outrageous statements to

the detriment of important policy proposals. Donald Trump received more attention than any

other candidate from the beginning of his campaign because television ratings partially drive

news coverage. Other candidates also tried to create a controversy by making wild or

unsubstantiated claims such as Carly Fiorina’s Planned Parenthood attack during the debater but

they were unable to retain the media’s attention and were subsequently overshadowed by Donald

Trump. A perfect example of this was the Republican debates which were light on actual policy

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substance but full of provocative statements and hollow talking points. Both parties’ 2016

primaries encountered faults in the system but in different ways.

53

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