Marketers expressing the future: Scenario planning for marketing action

Hugh M. Pattinson *, Suresh C. Sood

School of Marketing, Faculty of Business, University of Technology, Sydney, Building 5, City Campus, 1-59 Quay Street, Haymarket, P O Box 123, Broadway,

NSW 2007, Australia

1. ‘‘Learn the future faster’’ – scenario planning for marketing contexts

Imagine a scenario where an expert in wireless technologies is addressing a group of marketing academics andpractitioners at a workshop in mid-2001. The expert presents an example of wireless technology supporting live data flowsfor a rental car related to speed; fuel consumption and performance directly back to the car rental company. He recommendsto the group (of over 400 marketing academics and practitioners) that marketers need to develop scenarios for emergingtechnologies such as wireless to develop new products and services. The group looks at him blankly. He then asks if any ofthem have actually taught marketers about developing scenarios – all indicate they have not, except for one.

Unfortunately this story is true [2], and highlights a serious problem when it is obvious that marketers need to imagine,and express, new products and services based on emerging technologies. Thomas Friedman exhorts us in the ‘‘Flat World’’ toimagine the future [3], at political, business, social and individual levels, and to turn dreams into actions, rather than to be

Futures 42 (2010) 417–426

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:

Available online 26 November 2009

A B S T R A C T

Thomas Friedman exhorts us to imagine the future [1] – we urge marketers to invent the

future, to learn the future faster, and to deliver the future earlier. Marketers are asked to

develop scenarios about emerging technologies such as broadband wireless but more

often than not have no education or training in scenario planning. Also marketers are often

stuck in a strategic planning mindset based on successful replication of past marketing

strategies. Strategic management and marketing learning has ventured into futures and

foresight methodologies, but with strong focus on conventional macroscopic high-level

scenario planning methods.

This paper positions scenario planning as a method to express the future vision, both

tacit and explicit, of business, products and services in a clear succinct story form, to

underpin all elements of a marketing strategy (goals, position and execution). The scenario

planning for marketing action (SPMA) model is introduced and discussed incorporating

eight principles: moderation and time compression; storytelling led new product and service

development; customer orientation; iterative dynamic scenarios; complexity science to foster

non-linear thinking; risk weighted scenarios; participant hosted scenario workshops;

springboard consolidation.

The SPMA method was proven and evolved within postgraduate Executive education

courses in Sydney and Bangkok from 2003 to 2007. This approach is fundamental for

marketers to gain competences in ‘‘learning the future faster’’, thus possessing capabilities

to imagine and invent the future and deliver the future earlier.

� 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 2 9514 3540; fax: +61 2 9514 3535.

E-mail address: Hugh.Pattinson@uts.edu.au (H.M. Pattinson).

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Futures

journal homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate / fu tures

0016-3287/$ – see front matter � 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.026

dominated by memories of past successes. Following Friedman’s thought, we believe that marketers need to translate thisthinking into – ‘‘inventing the future’’, ‘‘learning the future faster’’ and to ‘‘delivering the future earlier’’.

Scenario development and its systematic cousin, scenario planning have a history spanning over 40 years as a means oforganization and conversation on ideas about the future – and then attempting to create forward-thinking inputs forstrategic planning groups, with a view to creating new customer value. Scenario planning does not conform to one particulardefinition but representative views include:

� ‘‘An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be’’ [4]� ‘‘A tool [for] ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out

right’’ [5]� ‘‘A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out’’ [6]

Porter’s use of scenario planning as a way to develop a view (or views) of the future may be used as inputs to developstrategic plans to contribute to attempts to shift an organization’s competitive position. At a corporate or business strategylevel scenario planning may be used to imagine and converse about new ideas and opportunity – or more typically from acontingency perspective – to attempt to assess future threats and problems and to lower associated perceived risk.

Van Buren and Smith [7] incorporated scenario planning into postgraduate management education – specifically intomarketing strategy curriculum aiming to use developed ‘‘alternative futures to test the resiliency of today’s action plan’’.These scenarios allow decision makers to compare and contrast the evolution of a particular future, to identify key drivers ofchange, and to assess winning and losing strategies in each particular future. ‘‘They also believe that scenario planning ‘‘helpsexpand the range of possibilities and keeps managers from drifting into unbridled science fiction’’.

Typically, scenario planning projects push thinking to a place (or space) where uncertainty is of such a level thatconventional forecasting or extrapolation is insufficient to start to explain possible future developments. Conventionalscenario planning timeframes are expressed in 5, 10, 20 or more years into the future.

However, where there are rapidly emerging technologies and high uncertainty with regard to developing possibleapplications from such technologies, then scenario planning timeframes can be compressed to a hypercompetitiveperspective of 1–5 years. The Iansiti and MacCormack [8] concept of ‘‘Internet-Time’’ for product development andinnovation i.e. that one year of product development and deployment for Internet-related technology is equivalent to aboutfive years of conventional product development, is relevant to a compressed timeframe version of scenario planning appliedto Internet-related technologies and products and services.

In fact, our experiences with ‘‘Internet-Time’’ scenario planning is that typically, rather than achieving scenarios rich withsurprises that verge on very plausible science fiction, the scenarios often have little imagination, no surprise – and no realvalue beyond conventional forecasting approaches. We also believe that in this style of scenario planning, alternative futuresor desired future positions (DFPs) are not set up to test the resilience of current action plans, rather they exist to set up new orradical departures from current plans where it is known that is there is high uncertainty and high probability of disruptivetechnology effects.

The authors firmly believe that scenario planning must be taught to marketers as a fundamental methodology for a rangeof marketing activities ensuring the embedding of scenario planning as a practice in the workplace. Scenario planning formarketing action focuses on a sense of urgency and creating customer value faster enabled by requiring the student ofmarketing to ‘‘learn the future faster’’.

Past experiences suggest a modified form of scenario planning is ideal for assessing e-business related technologies andissues. Over the last seven years the authors have moderated over 40 scenario planning projects focusing on marketing,within MBA and Executive MBA E-Marketing subjects on a variety of topics (see Table 1).

Table 1

Examples of scenario planning project completed in University of Technology, Sydney e-business marketing masters/executive MBA subjects 2003–2007.

� ‘‘Nano-dust’’ to monitor and manage forests � Digital radio

� Multibiometrics

� Synaptic messaging services (new SMS) � MP5 devices

� Virtual alboards (virtual keyboards)

� New definitions for ‘‘future incubators’’ � Global translator

� Rollable touchscreen

� VOIP — from your local Telco. or IT provider, or even your bank? � Virtual backyard designer

� Underskin wonderchip

� Redefining ISPs � Quickboard passenger tracking system

� Millennium generation at work

� Emerging M-commerce products and services � Braincasting system

� Dream lab

� Virtual wedding stores � Personalised I-zone location and Information system

� Virtual shopping malls

� Brokers relationship management system (BKM) � Home telemedicine system

And several other emerging technologies.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426418

Experience gained and analysis drawn from educational and consulting projects highlight some emergent themes for theapplication of scenario planning to marketing:

� Scenario planning projects must have big surprises that really challenge the view of what is happening today and the nearfuture.� Scenario planning projects are not long-formalised projects that are resource, client and time intensive.� Future horizon setting does have to be long for rapidly emerging e-business technologies, when compared to conventional

long-term scenario planning timeframes. 18–36 or perhaps 48 months is often sufficient for e-business technologies.� While multiple matrix-based scenario planning approaches can produce a wide range of useful insights, single-story

scenarios on specific emerging technologies and issues produce great and useful surprises leading to significant marketinginitiatives.� Marketers need to understand that in their working lifetime of the next 10–20 years, they will have to confront, assess –

and probably develop business responses to some of the most radical technologies in the history of mankind.� Eyes need to be opened and minds pushed into a new ‘‘headspace’’ such that scenario planners do not just ‘‘discover’’

technologies, products and services that already exist – and worse still – are already out there in the marketplace.� Learning faster for marketers includes all stages of business development including conceptualization, research/

development/commercialization (RDC) and marketing.

We experimented through both commercial and marketing management education to develop the application of scenarioplanning to marketing contexts.

A new scenario planning methodology was developed in 2000–2001 within various commercial scenario planningprojects and in an MBA scenario planning subject and e-business marketing executive MBA subjects. The methodology wassubsequently refined from 2002 to 2006 and the outcome today is the ‘‘scenario planning for marketing action’’ (SPMA)framework.

2. ‘‘Learn the future faster’’ – scenario planning for marketing action

SPMA is a framework underpinning a method allowing marketers the ability to express future vision, both tacit andexplicit, of business, products and services in a clear succinct story form, to underpin all elements of a marketingstrategy (goals, position and execution). This approach underpins the desire of the authors in ensuring the systematicapplication of scenario planning in marketing as well as becoming embedded within the scope of daily marketingactivities.

2.1. SPMA principles

The scenario planning for marketing action model is presented in Fig. 1. The SPMA model is built on eight principles. Eachprinciple is discussed with reference to rational and implications.

Fig. 1. Scenario planning for marketing action (SPMA) principles.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426 419

2.1.1. SP01 – moderation and time compression

Moderation is required to push participants within the scenario planning project outside today’s time horizons, beyondcurrent technological forecastability and into territories of uncertainty to engender creativity and imagination withinscenarios.

Strong moderation enables transformation of the traditional marketing mindset steeped in marketing activitiesimpacting 30-60-90 days involving a variety of tactical ‘‘coffee cup’’ promotional activities – toward strategic thinkingimpacting today’s markets through invoking long time horizons. Time compression is supported by using a mental time-travel [9] approach going backward and forward using storytelling with cognitive scripts [10].

2.1.2. SP02 – storytelling led new product and service development

Storytelling develops strategic conversations promoting systematic sensemaking of selected emerging technologiesapplied to new product and service development and drives issues analysis.

Storytelling encourages marketers to shift from a linear ‘‘closed-loop’’ predictive product development mindset to viewpossible disruptive patterns enabling development of new products, services and industries in new ‘‘spaces’’. The evolvedmarketing strategy is akin to a blue ocean strategy [11] creating an uncontested market space and capturing hitherto newand potentially unknown demands.

Marketers embrace storytelling to assist exploration and discovery of technologies with long commercializationtimescales that can infiltrate the marketing landscape and customers quicker than expected otherwise. Thus, instead ofbeing victims of disruptive technologies, marketing can lead development and delivery of new disruptive technologies,products, services that also may lead to generation of new industries and opportunities [12–14].

2.1.3. SP03 – customer orientation

Associating scenarios with a customer orientation recognizes future requirements and allows the creation of action plansfor organisational realignment to deliver the products and services for the future. Exploring emerging technologies with astrong customer orientation grounds scenario planning into marketing orientation as customer value creation [15] and as aset of emerging information flows contributing to a learning organization [16,17].

Scenario planning based on present – and future – customer focus enables planning for future products and services,including organisational changes to take place today – rather than being left to later as a major organisational changeendeavour, coinciding to closely with launching new products and services.

2.1.4. SP04 – iterative dynamic scenarios

Moderation encourages scenarios to develop from multiple iterations incorporating dynamic contributions from allworkshop contributors. Several groups present a scenario each, which are under a common theme, or separate topics. Acommon theme approach enables multiple scenarios on a topic. For each group an initial scenario is developed, challengedand revised with possible changed or new scenarios emerging during a workshop process. A pre-workshop ‘‘primer’’ is usedcomprising ‘‘futures goodies’’ including selected electronic magazines and text books to ensure future thinking is effectivegoing into the workshops.

In practice, even where there are diverse scenarios presented, the total cross-contributions in the workshop process oftenproduce common issues, links and ideas for cross scenario product/service development.

Iterative dynamic scenarios encourage marketers to work with a lesser number (even one) of scenarios incorporatinguncertainty through the dynamic inputs of each stakeholder – with deeper insights for immediate action.

2.1.5. SP05 – complexity science to foster non-linear thinking

Introduction of complexity science concepts and simulations can contribute to development and enhancement of non-linearthinking amongst marketers. Complexity reminds marketers that they cannot completely predict the future, but they can mappossible paths to and from the future and build in improvisation and ‘‘adaptivity’’ [18] as responses to changes going forward.

Complexity encourages probing and experimentation, and writing stories exploring genuinely emergent activities andevents. There is ‘‘creative future tension’’ between conventional scenario planning that tends to be biased toward ‘‘experts’’interpreting complicated situations with longer-term lenses, versus complexity encouraging shorter term experimentation,probing, improvisation and agility [19]. From this perspective complexity adds urgency and usually time compression toscenario planning – and especially when related to rapidly developing disruptive technologies.

Introduction of complexity science in a way that is understandable in strategic business and marketing terms can promptmarketers to recognise that small initiatives executed today potentially have large future impacts with little or no bearing onthe marketing expenditures. The ‘‘unbridled science fiction’’ [20] from non-linear thinking typically not only becomes aversion of science fact but it is transformed into new products, services and customer – by those who had the capacity toimagine and to create it. The authors support the Tulving’s view to use mental time-travel [21] with Markley’s perspective ofguided cognitive imagery [22] to develop scenarios, especially for emerging e-business technology.

2.1.6. SP06 – risk weighted scenarios

Scenario planning as practiced with strategic management and marketing can produce both opportunity and contingencyimplications. Risks are identified and understood within the workshop process in terms of incorporating wildcard events,

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426420

and issues associated with developing and delivering emerging technologies, into scenarios. All scenarios developedincorporate identified risks and a range of possible off the shelf responses to those risks – making the scenario visions areality.

Through incorporation of risk identification, discussion, and response, marketers can make realistic assessments of theirorganizations existing and potential capabilities to develop required new products and services and to understand who theymay – or may not – have to work with to achieve them. They can commence action required to genuinely reconfigurebusiness and marketing development to address emerging risk, thus reducing risk.

2.1.7. SP07 – marketing participant scenario development

There are several variations on who develops scenarios in scenario planning projects. Often because of time and logisticsconstraints the moderator or a core-team produces pre-written scenarios which are validated or revised by participants inworkshops. Another common variation is a smaller group takes scenarios (often skeletons of scenarios) developed inworkshops and then they write up the scenarios. For the SPMA approach, the scenarios are developed by actual marketingparticipants. The moderators host the scenario workshops to ensure that the participants go through the whole scenarioplanning process from beginning to completion.

Marketers who experience the workshop process gain valuable experience in key consulting skills including moderationto help evangelise from concept future products and services as well as systematically solicit stakeholder inputs throughscenario planning workshops. Value is delivered both in terms of exploring future opportunities with marketing lenses, butalso gaining workshop moderation, management skills and learning resulting from the workshops.

2.1.8. SP08 – springboard consolidation into outcomes-based scenarios

Marketers consolidate the further research and revision of intense workshop information collection into outcomes-basedscenario planning reports for marketing. The post-workshop ‘‘springboard’’ is in a sense, a book-end to the pre-workshop‘‘primer’’, comprising materials to encourage marketers to continue on a quest of future thinking after the project – and intofuture projects that they use in their workplace or in future business ventures.

Springboard consolidation encourages marketers to immediately execute scenarios, rather than seeing them relegated to‘‘cadenza ware’’ on shelves gathering dust. The springboard also encourages a longer-term cultural shift in the marketertoward using scenario planning for subsequent analysis of other marketing opportunities.

3. Developing and delivering ‘‘scenario planning for marketing action’’ (SPMA) in marketing curriculum

Experience gained through commercial scenario planning projects with high-technology and serviced based marketers,focused on new business development, over from 1985 through to 2001 was consolidated into a marketing scenario planningapproach in 2001–2002. Initial testing of the approach was undertaken in a specific scenario planning MBA subject in 2001and 2002. Although all eight SPMA principles were implicit in scenario planning workshops at that time, moderationemphasis focused on SP01 – moderation and time compression, SP03 – customer orientation, SP04 – iterative dynamic scenarios,SP07 – marketing participant scenario development, and SP08 – springboard consolidation into outcomes-based scenarios.

Executive MBA and Master of Business (Marketing) level E-Marketing subjects run from 2002 onwards incorporatedscenario planning projects. Creation of the complex research systems (CSRC) at the University of Technology, Sydney in 2002enabled development of Complex Systems Thinking knowledge and Storytelling methods applicable to scenario planning(SP02 – storytelling led new product and service development and SP05 – complexity science to foster non-linear thinking). Theseprinciples were enhanced within scenario planning projects from 2003 onwards.

Scenario planning projects were incorporated as an assessment item with an E-Marketing subject in an offshore Master ofMarketing course run by the University of Technology, Sydney in Bangkok, Thailand from April 2005.

From 2000 to 2003 on average, there was at least one e-business marketing class undertaking scenario planning projectsper year. Since 2005 this figure has increased to between 2 and 4 classes in Sydney (Australia) and Bangkok (Thailand) eachyear.

The actual scenario planning project is the major assessment item for Sydney-based Executive MBA E-Marketing and theBangkok-based subjects. Classes are conducted in intensive mode over two weekends set in a five-week teaching timeframe.Project selection, workshopping and reporting are strictly subjected to SP01 – moderation and time compression. Studentscomplete a whole scenario planning project from end-to-end and although such an approach is obvious and logical withinthis context, we believe that SP07 – marketing participant scenario development is significant when applied to commercialcontexts. The end-to-end process runs through project selection, idea development and workshopping (incorporating initialpresentation of an idea, followed a number of challenges and revisions), and then a full report usually one to two weeks afterthe workshop. The overall scenario planning project plan is presented in Fig. 2.

3.1. Project selection

Often students are not familiar with the topic of the scenario being created and feel uncomfortable in generating keydrivers for marketing strategies. To this end, the teaching encourages taking an outsider perspective as one most likely tocreate disruption of existing industries as well as noting ‘‘Experiences are replacing goods and services because they

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426 421

stimulate our creative faculties and enhance our creative capacities. This active, experiential lifestyle is spreading andbecoming more prevalent in society.’’ [23].

SP05 – complexity science to foster non-linear thinking is an important principle to encourage exploration of ideas that maycontribute to discerning possible emergent combinations of technologies and services. Students are expected to conduct amarket scan and head toward complexity and emergence through conversation and with assistance of ‘‘springboards’’. Thespringboard is a box of ‘‘futures goodies’’ available to students. The box contains selected popular magazines includingBusiness 2.0, New Scientist, Scientific American, Time, and Wired. The magazines are carefully selected editions e.g. ‘‘What’sNext’’ [24] and students can freely peruse issues for ideas. The market scan is akin to trend watching and students can accessInternet resources including www.iconoculture.com and www.trendwatching.com to further scan ideas.

Students are encouraged to scan these sources outside of the classroom to further stimulate development of a good andeffective idea. The main objective is to scan and review material from books, articles and electronic material focused onprovocative ideas, trends and scenarios that are ‘‘way out there’’ in terms of possibilities. Typically, every year there are newand stimulating contributions on emerging technologies, ideas, trends, and systematic presentations of such views of thefuture. This scan can include science fiction and even ideas presented in video or multimedia form (e.g. movies, TV series andother video productions).

In 2005 and 2006, Friedman’s (2006) The World is Flat: The Globalized World in the Twenty-First Century [25], was valuablefor establishing a baseline for a collaborative e-business platform and an associated form of globalization (Globalization 3.0)for scenario planners to jumpstart their projects.

In 2007, classes were primed with a session before scenario planning on ‘‘This is where we start E-Business in 2007’’,comprising a combination of sessions on ‘‘Second Life’’ (e.g. Australian Broadcasting Corporation [26]); Social Media, SearchEngine Marketing and other new e-business issues as they emerge while the course is in progress. Beyond the ‘‘E-BusinessPrimers in 2007, recommended books focused on idea generation include ‘‘The Meaning of the 21st Century’’ [27] andRevolutionary Wealth [28]. The core concept of Toffler’s most recent work challenges the student to revisit scenarios andrework the stories by manipulating the ‘‘deep fundamentals’’ of time, space and knowledge.

Subsequent to such stimulation and immersion, project groups then select topics or companies for their scenarioplanning projects. Classes may have a diverse range of topics or may be focused around one or two particular topics or issues(e.g. M-commerce, wireless technologies). It is not unusual though that where there are diverse topics synergies emergebetween projects due to cohort-based collective thinking within classes.

3.2. Workshop

The actual workshop has four distinct stages where ideas are articulated, revised and challenged – usually completed in afull one-day session. Fig. 3 highlights typical stages within the scenario planning workshop.

Workshop room setup influences how the scenario development occurs during the whole session. The room is configuredto generally to have all groups working in one large room but to allow each student group to congregate around a group spacein which they feel comfortable. Each group space has flipcharts (or electronic presentation capability), wall-space,conversation space (chairs and/or tables), and (from 2006 onwards) wireless access for additional and intense additionalresearch if required. The room is also configured so there is where possible a centre area that is open for the moderators – andother project groups can move around the different project group areas. While there can be provision for break-out roomsand other open areas attached or near the work-room, the moderators believe that there is strong collective collaborativevalue in organizing the workshop to be in one room.

The role of the course instructor is to provide students with narrative but the story underpinning the scenario is shaped bystudents making the connections or patterns between what has been told to them in terms of narrative. Allowing students to

Fig. 2. Scenario planning for marketing action (SPMA) – scenario planning project plan.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426422

assimilate the scenario stories from narrative occurs naturally. Each student discusses or starts to contribute to the storywithin a group.

Hence, the students interact as multiple narrators with variations emerging. Eventually, a single-story emerges fromstudent groups through combining the various versions. The enhanced narrated versions serve to take into accountuncertainty and the normal disadvantage of a single-story scenario.

The principle of SP05 – complexity science fosters non-linear thinking cannot be overstated here. By providing students withan understanding of complex systems we are able to break away from the classic pattern of linear thinking and obtaining atraditional planning viewpoint. Teaching upfront on the nature of complexity students begin to realise how surprisingconsequences arise from relationships and interactions. This critical teaching input primes students to take not onlyhelicopter views of the scenario being developed on flips and walls but a bottom up perspective. Furthermore, participantsgain an ability to understand small changes cause large changes later.

The use of laptops and digital cameras is used in the class room for carrying out real-time research on ideas during theworkshops (particularly in the early stages of the workshops) and for capturing essential elements of the planning process aswell as the scenario details.

However, over several years we continue to find the traditional approach to posting the walls with written flips, colouredstickies of varying sizes and flip charts assist students with making connections and therefore surprises emerging fromstudents making leaps between totally unrelated areas. In light of this experience, our continued view is that electronicallyautomating the scenario planning process is unproductive but preserving the scenario workshop electronically – much like acrime scene analyst – for later analysis by students can save considerable time and effort allowing a focus on creativity andharnessing the collective intelligence of the group.

3.2.1. Workshop – Stage 1

In Stage 1 Groups initially present their idea as far as it has been formed through prior research and conversation, in theform of a flipchart or electronic presentation. The whole class and moderators provides collaborative discussion, criticismand extension to the group. This process is run for all projects within the class. Typically time and moderation compressionenables Stage 1 to be completed in 2–3 h.

3.2.2. Workshop – Stage 2

For Stage 2 Groups take inputs gained from Stage 1, conduct further online research and conversation, and redefine theiridea. Extension to new possibilities through further application of non-linear thinking and specific stimulants in the form of

Fig. 3. Typical ‘‘scenario planning for marketing action’’ approach project workshop structure.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426 423

provocative technology videos or contrarian views are may be initially inserted into this session, and will build up infrequency and intensity through into Stage 3. The main purpose for stimulants at this point is to push groups ‘‘to learn thefuture faster’’ – but then to realise that they also need to think about how they could bring the ‘‘future to market even faster’’.

It is also not unusual for project groups to revisit their customer orientation during idea redefinition. Usually theredefined idea features richer storytelling with greater detail as it is presented to the whole class and moderators for further,discussion critique and input. By now the process has produced at least two dynamic scenario iterations. Stage 2 usuallytakes 1–2 h.

3.2.3. Workshop – Stage 3

Stage 3 recognizes that generated scenarios require testing for robustness. Groups are forced to examine contrarian viewsabout their idea and to consider how they might address challenges associated with their idea. Strong contrarian stimulantsare presented throughout this stage. A simulation helps establish the critical success factors (the things that must go right)for the scenario story generated. This takes place with students taking turns to walk through a scenario identifying all thethings that could go wrong and for each of these an action plan is established that aims to avoid the issues. The aim hereremains to bring the idea to market – or to learn about the idea – faster than possible competitors – and even faster than itcan be conceptualized by others.

Further classroom interaction identifies opportunities and threats and stimulates students to make immediate decisionswith regard to planned marketing actions. Groups may cut-back or rework their scenario, or they may work throughchallenges producing creative solutions to bring to idea to market as fast as they can.

Risk is weighed into the scenarios through consideration of a range of technical, economic, social, political andenvironmental as part of discussion within Stage 3. Revised scenarios are presented to the other groups and moderators.Stage 3 can take 1–3 h to complete.

3.2.4. Workshop – Stage 4

Groups revisit their scenario one more time to incorporate further new and surprising insights for action. Groups will alsofactor in a marketing strategy and actions including development of a promotional tag-line, and specific marketing strategyand recommendations to bring the revised idea to market. Some additional commentary on supporting informationenvironment or platform for the idea may be added to the scenario. Depending on workshop time and availability Stage 4may be completed during the full workshop session or finished after the session along with completing the scenario projectreport.

3.3. Report/outcomes

After the workshop, the project groups, through further research and revision (supported by the principle SP08 –

springboard consolidation into outcomes-based scenarios) produce a comprehensive report containing a final scenario andreflections from the students about their ‘‘learnings’’ on an emerging e-business technology, marketing that technology, andthe actual ‘‘scenarios for marketing Action’’ (SPMA) approach,

We now have over forty completed scenario planning projects using the SPMA approach. Several projects, particularlythose produced by the Executive MBA classes in Sydney have been taken forward for further investment analysis and directpractical implementation in terms of developing new products and services.

Indeed several projects were initiated by entrepreneurs who are quite passionate about their ideas and also who have theresources and capability to turn these ideas into reality. Some have moved on to turn these scenarios toward business andmarketing reality. Some participants have moved into management consulting using skills gained from SPMA to enhancemarketing and business aspects of their consulting portfolio. Other participants have reported back application of skillsgained to other marketing and business development challenges within their organizations.

In addition to the projects completed within classes in Sydney and Thailand, several consulting projects have beencompleted using SPMA for a range of business and government clients in the Asia-Pacific. Client feedback indicates theapproach is very effective and efficient, particularly where disruptive technologies are emerging and new products andservices must be imagined and realised – with both change in organizational and customer orientation.

4. Discussion, conclusions and further research

Based on student feedback and the assessments of the authors, the SPMA model was developed and refined from 2001 to2007. SPMA effectively combines development of future vision into relevant and competitive products, services and possiblyindustry creation with marketing strategy. Marketing orientation is enhanced through exploration, creation of futurecustomer value and configuration to action such creation. Marketing orientation also enhanced through information flowsbeing managed to give the marketing learning organization opportunity and capability to learning about the future and bringthat forward toward the present.

The eight principles contributing to SPMA work together to produce an effective methodology tuned specifically to learnabout new ideas and to link them to research/development/commercialization (RDC) and marketing, within a projectprocess that recognises reasonable time, resources and logistics constraints.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426424

4.1. SPMA and cultural differences

Cultural differences exist between Sydney and Bangkok classes. Typically the executive MBA classes in Sydney includequite entrepreneurial start-up managers, and innovative middle to senior executives who are very keen on developing anddelivering new ideas and bringing them to market. They are ideal candidates for scenario planning for marketing action asthey are strong self-starters and as long as they can be moderated outside their ‘‘comfort zones’’, these project groupsproduce innovative – and plausible – scenarios.

The Bangkok classes are a mix of family, middle and senior managers who tend to be focused on gaining a conventionalpackage of marketing knowledge. Extra tailored moderation is required to drive these classes toward a strong appreciation ofe-business technologies and marketing – and to go beyond what they may view as ‘‘adequate’’ for an emerging countrytoward ideas that can lead to global leadership. However, since early 2006, the Bangkok classes have become younger, withthe majority of classes in 2006 and 2007 being under 35. With this change there is a stronger understanding and use of newtechnologies – and a much stronger drive toward developing more new and leading-edge scenarios.

There is scope for further research into analysing scenario planning for Thai marketers – particularly the notion of‘‘learning the future faster’’ within a culture where temporal thinking and focus is different to western countries. How thisdifference translates into exploring emerging innovation in relation to technology is area for further research.

Our experience so far, suggests that some principles of SPMA such as SP02 – storytelling led new product and service and SP07 –

marketing participant scenario development, are readily adaptable for Thai marketers undertaking a scenario planning project.Thai culture contains a rich vein of stories and storytelling traditions so using storytelling in addressing management issues is avery reasonable learning strategy. Marketing Participant scenario development with very strong positive group collaborationmay fit with managers from society with a collective culture relative to Australia which is regarded as quite individualistic.

Some SPMA principles are much challenging to incorporate within scenario planning projects for Thai marketers. SP01 –

moderation and time compression challenges very different temporal notions associated with Thai culture, although withchanging age demographics, this issue may ease over the next 5–10 years. Moderating toward SP05 – complexity science to

foster non-linear thinking represents further challenges in an environment of creative non-linear thinking and critical creativeanalysis is still not taught in the education systems in Thailand. Other SPMA principles are readily implementable in scenarioplanning projects for Thai marketing managers but are impacted by problems with the more challenging principles. Futurescenario planning projects using SPMA in Thailand or other countries in the Asia-Pacific Region could provide more researchinput on cultural differences and challenges.

4.2. SPMA’s application to marketing activities

SPMA has been applied to marketing activities such as product/service development, business development, andinnovation and entrepreneurship. SPMA approach can also be applied effectively to B2B marketing contexts including keyaccount management, where scenario planning can assist key account managers and their clients to collectively develop newand emerging solutions.

SPMA is readily applicable to marketing communications, especially where new and emerging technologies threaten todisrupt how information is generated, shared, hyper-distributed and recreated. Scenario planning on emerging social mediaand collaboration applications and their implications for branding, advertising and communications are fertile grounds foran SPMA approach.

4.3. SPMA and service-driven marketing

In late 2007/early 2008, the SPMA approach was further refined in the most recent executive MBA E-marketing class toblend scenario planning for marketers with service-driven marketing and business services, incorporating supportinginformation and technology platforms. This new refinement of SPMA will be discussed after further analysis in futureresearch.

4.4. SPMA and ‘‘future marketing scenarios’’

There is also room for applying SPMA to ‘‘future marketing scenarios’’. The catastrophic scenario for not developingscenarios for the emerging technologies such as wireless and nanotechnology is a slide into irrelevance for marketers and adiscredit to marketing as a philosophy, into recalling memories of past marketing successes – the marketing dreamtimefaded away with future ideas and customer values remaining out there – but in the hands of those who dared to imagine,invent and deliver. Simply stated, ‘‘The future is impossible to predict. However, one thing is certain: The company that canexcite its customers’ dreams is out ahead in the race to business success.’’ [28]

References

[1] T.L. Friedman, Conclusion: imagination, in: The World is Flat: The Globalized World in the Twenty-First Century (Newly Revised and Expanded), PenguinBooks, Camberwell, Australia, 2006, Chapter 15.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426 425

[2] P. Hendrix, Mobility – the next disruptive technology, Presentation at the AMA Faculty Consortium on Electronic Commerce, Texas A&M University, 16 July2001.

[3] Freidman, ibid.[4] M.E. Porter, Competitive Advantage, Free Press, New York, 1985.[5] P. Schwarz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Currency Doubleday, New York, 1991.[6] P.J.H. Shoemaker, Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, Sloan Management Review, Winter, 1995, pp. 25–40.[7] D.C. Van Buren, D. Brannigan Smith, Scenario planning: a new approach to teaching marketing strategy, Journal of Marketing Education 21 (2) (1999) 146–

155.[8] M. Iansiti, A. MacCormack, Living On Internet Time: Product Development at Netscape, Yahoo!, Net Dynamics and Microsoft, Harvard Business School,

Boston, 9-697-052, 1996.[9] E. Tulving, Chronesthesia: conscious awareness of subjective time, in: D.T. Stuss, R.T. Knight (Eds.), Principles of Frontal Lobe Function, Oxford University

Press, 2002.[10] H.M. Pattinson, A.G. Woodside, Innovation and Diffusion of Software Technology: Mapping Strategies, Elsevier, Oxford, UK, 2007.[11] W. Chan Kim, R. Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant, Harvard Business School

Press, Boston, 2005.[12] C.M. Christensen, M.E. Raynor, The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 2003.[13] G. Hamel, C.K. Prahalad, Competing for industry foresight, in: Competing for the Future, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 1994, Chapter 4.[14] C. Perez, Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms, in: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK,

2002, Chapter 2.[15] J.C. Narver, S.F. Slater, The effect of a market orientation on business profitability, Journal of Marketing 54 (4) (1990).[16] A.K. Kohli, B.J. Jaworski, Market orientation: the construct, research propositions, and managerial implications, Journal of Marketing 54 (2) (1990).[17] P.M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization – Revised Edition, Currency Doubleday, New York, 2006.[18] S.L. Brown, K.M. Eisenhardt, Competing on the Edge: Strategy as Structured Chaos, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 1998.[19] Brown, Eisenhardt, 1998, Summary of Key Themes, ibid.[20] Van Buren, Brannigan Smith, 1999, ibid.[21] Tulving, 2002, ibid.[22] O.W. Markley, Visionary futures: guided cognitive imagery in teaching and learning about the future (futures studies in higher education), American

Behavioral Scientist 42 (November–December (3)) (1998) 522–530.[23] R. Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class: And How It’s Transforming Work, Leisure, Community and Everyday Life, Basic Books Reprint Edition, New York,

2003.[24] Time Magazine, 19 March 2007.[25] Freidman, 2006, ibid., 9–12.[26] Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘‘You Only Live Twice: Broad Band Edition’’, Four Corners, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (19 March 2007), http://

www.abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20070319/, accessed 30 June 2007.[27] J. Martin, The Meaning of the 21st Century, Riverhead Hardcover, New York, 2006.[28] A. Toffler, H. Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth, Knopf, Random House, New York, 2006;

G.L. Longinotti-Buitoni, Selling Dreams: How to Make Any Product Irresistible, Simon & Schuster, 1999.

H.M. Pattinson, S.C. Sood / Futures 42 (2010) 417–426426