Flood Risk Management in Central Vietnam:

Challenges and Potentials

EEPSEA Climate Change Conference

Bali, Indonesia , 13-15 Feb 2008

Challenges and Potentials

Phong TranGraduate School of Global Environmental Studies

Kyoto University

Outline

♦ Introduction

♦Research location and conceptual framework

♦Results

♦Conclusions♦Conclusions

Introduction

♦ Vietnamese nation regarded flooding as one of the four biggest

dangers to people, along with fires, robbers, and invaders

♦ Floods are well known phenomena and occur in all regions of

the country, especially in the Central Coast region

♦ Large systems of river and coastal dykes have been ♦ Large systems of river and coastal dykes have been

constructed to control flooding and Vietnamese people have

experiences of coping floods, but these mechanisms are under

pressure

♦ Conditions inducing floods are intensifying e.g. climate change,

urbanization, etc.

Research problems

Disaster -Environment Convergence

EnvironmentManagement

Goal: resilient ecosystems that

support livelihoods

Disaster Risk ManagementGoal: Save lives

and protect livelihoods

Environment Development Convergence

Disaster Development Convergence

Development ManagementGoal: Increasing human well being

Objectives and scope of the study

♦To explore the impacts of

floods on economy,

environment, and society

♦To identify the villager’s flood ♦To identify the villager’s flood

coping mechanisms

♦To formulate an appropriate

flood risk management model

for Central Viet Nam

Research location: Thua Thien Hue

♦ Most disaster prone areas of Vietnam

♦ The province has an area of 5,053 square km

♦ The estimated population ♦ The estimated population is 1,150,000 in 2006

♦ Infrastructure and industry lies in the coastal plain

♦ Most of the population lives within 25 km of the coast

Huong river basin

Environmental riskor Disaster Event

Human Vulnerability Natural Hazard

Resistance

Research framework

Exposure Resilience

Severity Frequency

Location relative to hazard

Environmental Surroundings

Livelihood Health

Adjustments Preparation

Global social, economic and political pressureHuman induced global environmental change

Research methodologies

- Satellite image- Hydrology map- Topographic map- Transportation system map- Land cover map- Land use map

Secondary data collection

- Computer

- Human resources- Hardware- Software

GIS preparation

Integrated Flood Passed

- Flood levels- Private house conditions- Public facility conditions- Loss and damage caused by floods- Vulnerable areas- High and safe places

GPS field data collection

- Major hazards- Factors contribute flood vulnerabilities- Factors ranking and weighting- Physical capacity

indentification (through PRA)Risk, vulnerability and capacity factors

Integrated Flood

Adjust weights

Risk Hazard MapGIS AnalysisIncorporation in planning

Passed

Field verification Failed

Disaster trendsA

vera

ge m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

(mm

) in

floo

d se

ason 700

600

500

400

300 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Year

2010200019901980197019601950

Ave

rage

mon

thly

pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

in fl

ood

seas

on

300

200

100

Average monthly precipitation in rainy season

(Aug-Dec) from 1960 to 2004

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Number of major disasters from 1804 to 1945

Number of major disasters from 1975 to 1999

Disaster frequency by month in

Thua Thien Hue Province

Upland-lowland linkages

Flood impacts on environment

16

21

23

28

34

37

38

16

27

17

28

14

Stagnant w ater, extended vector habitat such asmosquitoes

Unsafe drinking w ater

Solid w aste, household w aste

Environmental problems during the flood season

5

15

16

15

29

28

38

33

33

42

23

23

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Spread of pig manure, human w aste

Large amount of mud/debris

Dead bodies of animals

Most serious (%) Serious (%) Less serious (%) No serious (%)

Solid waste

Flood impacts on economy

32

72

18

21

16

6

10

1

25

1

13

1

Flood 1999 (catastrophicf lood)

Flood 2004 (normal f lood)

18 23 11 5 42 9

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Flood 1985 (f lood andstorm)

Aquaculture Capture f isheries Agriculture Livestock Housing Household appliences

Percentage productivity loss and damage caused by three major floods

Positive impacts of floods

16

10

13

31

21

35

27

34

27

26

35

26

Necessary for lagoonsystem

Increase aquacultureproductivity

Increase agricultureproductivity

16

19

7

43

38

40

19

30

39

22

13

13

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Make lagoon, river cleaner

Fertilize agriculture land

Kill the insects, rats

Strongly agree Agree Not sure Don't agree

Positive impacts of yearly flood on environment

Impacts on society

Flood impacts on povertyAverage of 1999 flood level and current level of plinth by household category

– The poor are more exposed to flood water

– The poor have fewer resources upon which to draw to counteract the

impacts of flooding

– The poor may be forced to exploit environmental resources for

survival, thereby increasing both the risk of, and exposure to

disasters

Social and physical vulnerability

♦ The same outside flood risk may not the same indoor flood risk

♦ High percentage temporary houses located far from safe shelters but close to the riverbank

♦ Unequal distribution of public building in the ♦ Unequal distribution of public building in the residential areas

♦ People tend to live close to the riverbank, despite the threat of flooding

– 8% houses located within 20m river buffer zones

– 33% households live very close to the rivers (within 60m from the riverbanks)

Flood risk perception and coping mechanism

♦ At commune level, DM plan only focuses on emergency situation

♦ At district and provincial level, detailed plan is prepared only for high-risk areas

♦ Disaster-development linkages have been mentioned, but no concrete intervention.

♦ Development program, such as relocation failed to integrate disaster aspects

The Gap…

♦ Little attention paid to the linkages

♦ Some project recognized the effect of environmental

degradation on disaster risks, but take actions in different

angles

♦ Recently some projects addressed the linkages, but…

♦ Lack of disaster consideration in environment programs

♦ Some initiatives try to incorporate multiple sectors such as

ICZM, IMOLA

♦ PAM programs on reforestation

Challenges of flood risk management

♦Changes resulting from moving a planned to a

market economy;

♦There has been substantial environmental

degradation;degradation;

♦The area may already be experiencing the effects of

climate change; and

♦The traditional methods of flood risk mitigation are

less effective than they used to be.

Potentials of flood risk management♦ There is a good opportunity to integrate flood risk reduction

programs into poverty alleviation, socio-economic development and capacity building programs

♦ The overall changing economic structure of Viet Nam holds potentials for an integrated flood risk management

♦ The role of local communities has been recognized; ♦ The role of local communities has been recognized; community based disaster management approaches are widely used

♦ The rise of civil society that could mediate between theindividual and state has potentials to promote governmentresponsiveness and accountability in disaster management.

♦ Community still has strong social capital and rich local knowledge to cope with natural disasters

Key findings

♦ Flood disaster is not a pure hazard-led disaster, but has

deep roots in social vulnerabilities

♦ Inappropriate environment management increases the

negative impacts of the floods

♦ Floods, although cause losses and damages (that often

inhibit economic development), are also essential elements

for the subsistence of the coastal populations of the Hue

Lagoon

♦ Coping mechanisms are under pressures due to

environmental degradation and improper development of

the build environment

Policy implications♦ Social vulnerabilities should be considered as a core risk

component of flood disasters

♦ Increasing disaster education and disaster awareness within flood vulnerable communities

♦ Participatory flood risk assessments should be carried out before formulating any development projects in the region

♦before formulating any development projects in the region

♦ Pre-existing local knowledge and concerns should be kept central in the decision-making process and

♦ The incentive structures should encourage a larger degree of local ownership and responsibility

♦ Traditional coping mechanisms are becoming less effective, new initiatives of integrated flood risk management are becoming necessary

Thank You

For full papers/reports:

http://www2.hawaii.edu/~tranphon/