Logistics Risk Management

- Current Situation of Hong

Kong’s Logistics Industry

- Business Cycle of the Logistics

Industry

” Embedded Risk in the Logistics

Business Cycle

” Big Data in Logistics Industry

- New Technologies in the Logistics Industry

” Future Development of Hong Kong's Logistics Industry

- Our Suggestions to Hong Kong's Logistics Industry

BASEL Ill

” History and Evolution of

Basel

- Impact on local banks

” Lessons learned from

overseas

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IS anae-e en

Current Situation of Hong Kong’s Logistics Industry 香港物流業的現況

By virtue of the geographical advantage, the logistics industry has long

been prospering in Hong Kong. As Mr. John Tsang, Financial Secreta門 of

the H KSAR, explained, the logistics industry plays a vital role in the local

economy, contributing to 28% of Hong Kong’s GDP and due to

technological advancements, its reliability, complexity and

competitiveness have been upgraded to face future challenges.

香港的物流業憑著地理位置優勢，一直蓬勃發展。正如香港特別行政區財政司

司長曾俊華先生所說，作為本土經濟四大支柱之一，物流業對香港生產總值的

貢獻約佔28% ，角色舉足輕重。隨著科技的發展，其可靠性、複雜性及競爭力

都顯著提升，以此應對日後的各種挑戰。

According to official statistics, the increasing trends in

both import and expor• of merchandise value indicate

the rapid developmen• of the logistics industry. The total

•rade value recorded a growth of 136% in 15γears. In

addition，。ccording to the Logistics Performance Index

(LPI）的nking, Hong Kong, with a score of 3.83, is the 15th

largest logistics cen•er in the world and 2nd in Asia. Other

•han its location this remarkable result can be attribu•ed

to the outstanding infrastructure, sound regulatory

regime, large numbers of well寸rained workers and

effective customs. However, are •here anγunderlγing

threats to the logis•ics indus↑rγowing to the rapid

developmen• of other countries♀

香港政府公佈的數據顯示，貨物的出口及人口價值均有明顯的上升趨

勢，十五年內增幅逾倍，標示著香港物流業急速發展 。 在近日公佈的

國際物流績效指數（LPI）中，香港憑3.83得分成為世界第十五大 、 亞洲

第二大物流中心 。 除7地理優勢之外，取得這些驕人成就亦有賴於香

港出色的基礎設施 、 完善的司法制度 、 充足的專業人才，以及有效的

海關把關 。 可是，隨著其他國家城市急速發展，香港的物流業前景將

會面對甚麼風險呢？

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Annual Value of Merchandise Trade in Hong Kong

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Annual Value of Merchandise Import in Hong Kong

一一 一

Total expo同S

﹒ lmpo『ts

.Imports

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Year

Annual Value of Merchandise Export in Hong Kong 4，α)0,000 , -

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Year

LPI Scoresort icon 4_.12 4.05 ,4.04 4 .. 01

4 3.96 3.96 3.95 3.92 3.91 3.87 3.86 3.85 3.84 3.83

Business Cycle of the Logistics Industry

In general, logistics can be classi有ed into three main parts: storage,

warehousing and transportation. For eve門day operation,

companies have to process orders and transpo吋 the required

goods in designated quantities to their desired locations. Order

processing, which is usually done in the warehouse, includes a

number of steps. A withdrawal list is produced, and then the items

are selectively removed from the racks manually or by machines.

The unloaded items will then be sorted according to their

destination, this is followed by package formation which includes

labeling and packing of goods.

Trains, vehicles, airplanes and boats are common means of

transportation, sometimes multimodal or intermodal

transportation may be adopted to achieve a balance between cost

and delivery time. For intermodal transportation, goods are kept in

the same cargo without extra handling when changing the delivery

mode. This can reduce the time and increase the security of

intermediate transpo吋ing.

Regarding the entry of good, companies have to evaluate the type

of goods for the optimum location for storage, they also have to

input data such as weight and size of the goods into the system.

是

物流業的營運周期

物流業的運作大致上可分為三個環節：儲存、

人倉及運輸。物流公司每天都要處理客人的訂

單並把一定數量的貨物遣送到指定的地方。訂

單處理包含幾個步驟，而這些工序一般會於倉

庫內完成。工作人員首先會制定待提取貨物清

軍，然後以人手或機器從倉庫中取出貨物，並

按照目的地作出分類，再交予包裝人員加上標

籤及進行包里。

除7火車、汽車、航機和貨船等常見的運輸方

式外，客人亦會選擇多式聯運及協調聯運模式

，以平衡成本及運貨時間。若貨物以協調聯運

的方式運輸，貨物會使用同一個貨運箱由一種

運輸方式轉至第二種方式，，從而節省另行處

理貨物的時問以及加強轉運的安全性。

在存入貨物方面，物流公司除7要按貨品選擇

合適的存放位置外，亦需要將物件的資料，例

如大小和重量等，輸入電腦系統，以方便管理

。

心 Warehousing

Customer Service Transportation

Supplies Port

It seems that the business operations of a logistics company are

not complicated; however, many decisions have to be made in

order to facilitate operation.

In order for a smooth fulfillment process, compatibility between

the con行guration of the warehouse, the types of goods to be

stored and its demand, and the type of automated machines for

fast picking and easy sorting have to be taken into

consideration. Furthermore, the factors that need to be

considered include not only rack dimensions, the design of the

rack, the number of racks and the warehouse layout, but also

retrieval systems such as forklift or conveyor belt. In addition,

flexibility is a factor to consider when handling goods with

special needs, e.g., fragile products. All of the above mentioned

items play decisive roles in determining the e而ciency and

productivity of the process.

Em.bedded Risks in the Logistics Business Cycle

On the whole, the logistics industry has to deal with two

major aspects of risk: safety and accuracy.

Risks concerning safety issues include the safety of sta仟 in

the use of machines, the protection of goods against loss,

theft or damage. Measures such as monitoring systems to

track the goods are introduced to the industry and will be

discussed later in the article.

乍看之下，物流公司的業務並不是太複雜，但

要確保其流暢運作，每一個細節都大有學問。

為7令處理訂單的過程更順暢，倉庫的結構、

要儲繭的物件及數量、自動他機械這三者之間

的配合必不可少，當中涉及貨架的維度、設計

、數量，倉庫的佈局，以及鏟草或輸送帶等提

取貨品的系統。除此之外，倉庫的靈活性亦非

常重要，處理易碎品等有特殊需要的貨物時尤

其如此。對於整個運送的效率和生產力，以上

提及的各個環節都擔負著非常重要的角色。

物流黨的潛在風險

整體來說，物流業需要處理兩大類風險：安全

風險和準確度。

安全風險包含員工因操作機械產生的安全問題

，以及因遺失、盜竊或損毀引發的貨物安全問

題。為7減低貨物的安全風險，不少物流公司

都設有監察系統追蹤貨物的去向，本文稍後亦

會進一步討論有關系統。

Accuracy issues cover transportation details which include

destination and designated time of delivery, goods details such as

type of goods, quantity and the desired kind of packaging. To

facilitate identification of goods, almost every logistics company

employs computer database and peripheral machines to keep

record. Barcodes and radio-frequency identi有cation (RFID) are

technologies that facilitate warehouse operations.

而準確度則包括7運送詳情，例如目的地和指定

時間的準繩度，以及貨物詳情，例如種類、數量

和指定包裝等。為7簡他確認貨物的程序，幾乎

所有物流公司都以電腦和其他電子裝置記錄貨物

資料，而條碼及無線射頻辨識則是其中兩種常用

的技術。

物流業不但要顧及日常業務會遇上的風險，亦要

Apa吋 from the risks in daily operations, companies have to have 有相當良好的危機管理，以處理隨時發生的極端

excellent crisis management capability. Accidents such as adverse 天氣、異常交通狀況，或倉庫漏水等問題。有些

weather conditions, unexpected tra而c conditions or water leaks in 公司會因應自身的需要，將天氣預報系統或香港

the warehouse can happen at any time. That is why some 運輸處提供的即時路面情況結合使用，有些公司

companies incorporate the use of a weather forecasting system or 亦會定期進行演習，藉此加強部門間的溝通。

tra而c conditions monitoring provided by the Hong Kong Transport

Department into their systems; regular drills may be included to

improve communication between parties.

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Big Data in Logistics Industry 物流業中的大數據

Because of the rapid development of technology, millions of

shipment occur every day. Handling the fast and massive data is

now a new challenge to the industry. A recent survey reveals

that about 60% of logistics companies are now investing in big

data analysis. However, due to the lack of past experience,

more than half of these companies have shown their

bewilderment in developing big data strategy.

隨著科技的急速發展，全球每日都要處理數以百

萬宗計的貨運。要迅速處理龐大的數據，為業界

帶來7重大的挑戰。最近一項調查發現， 60%物

流公司正發展大數據的分析業務。可是由於欠缺

過任經驗，逾半物流公司對發展大數據的分析策

略都頗感迷茫。

There is no doubt that logistics business is complex and usually

a cross-border operation. Not only do the logistics companies

receive a variety of data, but also they need to process the data

day and night. In short, the types of big data can be simply

attributed to three sources: customers, in-house management

as well as transpo吋at ion.

物流業無疑非常複雜，而且通常都是跨國運作的

。物流公司會收集到不同類型的數據，而且需要

日以繼夜地加以處理。簡單來說，物流業的大數

據大致可歸納於三個來源：客戶、設施管理及運

” kf

tr

’ 5對闋/

l li\1﹔三：~t==

By utilizing data from customers, logistics companies can

cluster their customers in di仟erent areas and therefore,

optimize the planning of resource allocation and adjust their

geographical coverage. In 2013, America accounts for the

largest logistics country in the world, followed by ζhina,

Germany, United Kingdom and Japan. With reference to the

size of the logistics market, companies can explore business

oppo吋unities based on customer density.

物流公司可利用來自客戶的數據，將客戶按不同

地區歸類，以此優化其資源分配計劃及調整業務

的覆蓋面。在2013年，美國的物流業規模在全球

居於首位，其後分別為中國、德國、英國和日本

。物流公司會參考各地物流市場的規模，根據客

戶密集度來拓展商機。

In addition, the data sourced from the warehouse include size,

weight and content of goods while those from the transportation

section consist of the cost and time of shipping. Combining these

information, logistics companies can systematically draw a plan

for transportation to reduce the time for handling and storing of

merchandise.

The purpose of handling big data is basically to improve the

performance of business by increasing operation e而ciency,

raising the turnover rate of warehouse as well as expanding the

business network. However, the common difficulties that

logistics companies, if not all kinds of industry with an interest in

investing in business intelligence, facing are the challenges that

the 4Vs characteristics (volume, velocity, variety and veracity)

pose to IT speci行cation, storage capacity and potency of internal

system. As a result, the demand for these products and talents

are now a red-hot topic within the industry.

With respect to the form of data interchange, companies usually

use spreadsheets to manage their data. Electronic Data

Interchange (EDI) is one of the new forms to replace the

traditional way. As di仟erent departments in one company may

save their data in di仟erent formats, it takes time for data merging

and clearing before processing and calculation, EDI provides a

standard form of data input to avoid this scenario. However,

since the set-up cost is relatively higher than using traditional

tools, EDI is not common in SMEs but utilized by large companies

such as IBM, HP and OOCL. Nonetheless, due to the increasing

demand for business intelligence to handle big data daily, EDI, as

a fast and systematic tool to manage information, should play an

important role in the future; some logistics companies have paid

attention to investing in EDI development.

來自貨倉的數據包括貨物的足寸 、 重量及內容，

而來自運輸環節的數據則包括運輸成本和時間 。

物流公司可透過綜合分析當中的資訊來制定完善

的運輸計劃和縮短處理及儲存貨物的時間 。

處理大數據的目的是提升營運效率 、 貨倉效率及

拓展業務網絡，以最終改善業務表現 。 但有意投

資商業智能的物流公司或其他行業公司都會遇到

同樣的難題 ： 大數據的4V特性為內部系統的資訊

科技規格、儲存容量及系統的效能帶來挑戰 。 對

這些產品及人才的需求亦因此備受業界關注 。

就數據交換方式而言，各企業大多利用EXCEL報

表來管理數據 。 電子數據交換（ EDI ）則是取代

傳統方法的一種新模式 。 由於公司各部門在很多

時候都採用不同格式輸入和儲存數據，因此要花

費時間進行數據合併和整理，而電子數據交換平

台則提供標準的數據輸入格式，從而避免7上述

情況的發生 。 不過，由於電子數據交換平台的設

置費用高於傳統模式，因此只是在IBM 、惠普及

OOCL等大型企業中較為常見，在中小企業中並

不流行， 。 儘管如此，由於應用商業智能處理大

數據的需求日增，電子數據交換平台作為快捷和

系統他的資訊管理工具，自然應在日後扮演更重

要的角色 ， 現時亦有些物流公司加強7在電子數

據交換平台方面的投入 。

[ Traditional Model J

國

Wc0rkina 1 Department A

／川1、

.. We時ina 2 Department B

／九

.. EDI

Electronic Data Interchange Work~ng 3 Department C

﹝ M呵叭Cl酬ng ] ﹝ P肌叫 Calct

New Technologies in the Logistics Industry 物流業的新科技

In this century, technology has significantly enhanced our standard

of living. The logistics industry has also utilized technologies such

as Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID), QR-code, warehouse

management system (WMS) and electronic payment methods to

improve their business by shortening the processing duration.

在當今世紀，科技不斷改善人類的生活。物流業

亦已開始利用各類技術來處理日常事務及縮短運

作周期。這些技術包括無線射頻辨識（ RFID ）、

二維碼（ QR-code ）、倉庫管理系統及電子繳費

等等。

Vehicle τracking System 汽車追雖系統

According to an executive from Oriental Logistics Holdings Co.

Ltd. during an interview, in order to monitor the operation of their

fleets, most logistics companies have employed a vehicle tracking

system to keep track of their vehicles. Common constituents of a

vehicle tracking system include a tracking device installed in each

vehicle, tracking server and user interface with the help of GPS.

The location signal is transmitted from the tracking device to the

tracking server. Fleet managers can access the information from

automatic and real-time positioning graphs.

透過對東方物流的訪問得知，為7有效地監察車

隊的運作，很多物流公司都引人7汽車追蹤系統

來定位公司的車輛。汽車追蹤系統主要組件包括

安裝於車輛的追蹤裝置、追踩伺服器、用戶介面

和全球定位系統（ GPS ）。定位位置訊問由追蹤

裝置發出，經網絡傳送到伺服器進行分析。車隊

的管理員可以透過自動定位圖取得車輛的即時資

相刊

4一一口

Stolen vehicle recove門

Tracking systems are beyond doubt an e仟ective way to avoid

hijacking and theft. By activating the tracking unit in a vehicle,

police can easily track the location of lost cars by following the

signals emitted.

Fleet Management

尋回失蹤汽車

汽車追蹤系統可以有效預防車輛被劫和失竊。警

方可借助汽車追蹤功能，輕易追蹤到失蹤汽車的

位置。

車隊管理

管理車隊時，清楚7解司機的即時位置非常重要

When managing a fleet of vehicles, it is important to have the o 除7監察貨物運輸及服務送遞的過程外，物流

real-time location of all drivers. Apart from monitoring the 公司還可以安排車輛行駛最適合的路線，以此提

process of goods transportation and service delivery, logistics 供完善的運輸規劃及避免出現貨運延誤。

companies can assign a proper route to its fleet by providing an

e仟ective solution to avoid carrier delay and allow comprehensive 緊急應變措施

transportation planning.

Emergency Measure

Unexpected events such as tra而c congestion and breakdown of

vehicles can greatly influence the transportation of wares. Not

only does the tracking system help trace the cars that have

experienced a breakdown, it also provides emergency measures

during traffic congestion through instant route planning and

reporting.

GPS

交通擠塞和車輛損壞都是物流業常見的意外，且

會為貨運帶來很大的影響。汽車追蹤系統不單可

以幫助追蹤受損的車輛，在發生交通意外時亦可

以迅速重組路線及報告狀況，從而有效地作出應

Telecom

GPRS GSM

Server Traitment center

111 ﹒︱

Cartography

Radio-Frequency Identification, RFID

Although its name, RFID, may be strange to us, it is an

omnipresent technology in our daily lives. The Octopus card

utilizes this electromagnetic technology to identify the chip on

each individual card. At the same time, because of the

fast-tracking function, logistics companies have also started

using this technology to handle dozens of freight.

Traditionally, warehouses use barcodes mainly to label the

information of goods in a package. Scanning inconvenience is

made since the barcode must be in the line of sight of the reader

and the scanning distance cannot be too far. Through using the

RFID technology, a reader is used to detect the speci有c

frequencies of the waves emitted from chips with a large amount

of information such as the type of goods, destination and

delivery date. Also, the detecting distance can be as far as 2m.

Obviously, the warehouse can handle the big data carried by the

large amount of goods e仟ectively by just installing an RFI D

reader on the conveyer belt to allow automatic classi有cation and

separation of freight.

With the installation of an RFI D system, human mistake or

warehouse fault can be easily eliminated. In addition, the chips

can hold large amounts of data, including weight, size, content

and destination, and enhance cargo management from storage

to stock counting. Logistics companies can also make use of RFID

to increase the product quality and accelerate the processing

speed to advance the logistics business cycle and enhance the

processing of massive data.

無線射頻辨識

「無線射頻系統」這個名字對某些人來說可能比

較陌生，但其實這種技術很常見。 ）l達通早己應

用這種電磁技術來辨認卡上的晶片。由於無線射

頻辨識具備快速辨認功能，因此物流業亦開始利

用這種科技來處理成千上萬的貨物。

傳統上，倉庫主要利用條碼來標籤包裝內貨物的

資料，但條碼需要準確對準解碼器才能閱讀當中

的資料，而且掃描的距離不能太遠，因此會為掃

描帶來不便。透過無線射頻系統解讀器閱讀由晶

片所發出的獨特頻率，可取得儲存於晶片內的資

料，例如貨物的種類、送運的目的地和送遞時間

等，從而令貨物的管理變得更方便快捷。除此之

外，無線射頻系統的偵測距離接近2米，有B力減

少掃描操作的不便。物流公司的倉庫可將偵測器

安裝於貨物運輸帶上，進行貨物自動分類，以便

處理大量的貨物數據。

採用無線射頻系統，有B力於減低人為錯誤及倉庫

出錯的機會﹔可重複使用的晶片則能夠滿低營運

開支及改善倉庫管理，大大提升存貨乃至核算的

效率。物流業oJ利用無線射頻技術來提升產品質

量及加快處理速度，從而改善物流業務的工作流

程，以及加強處理大數據。

Weather Forecasting Technology 天氣預測系統

The weather presents one huge risk to the logistics industry and so

should never be overlooked. For aviation, which depends heavily

on weather conditions, the risks caused by weather are especially

important.

天氣可以為物流業帶來不容忽視的風險，對於航

空業尤甚。

In 1999, a typhoon (Signal No. 10) caused a plane to overturn at

Hong Kong International Airport, blocking one of the two

runways. In recent years’ Airport Authority Hong Kong (AA) was

called to the Legislativeζouncil to explain the chaos caused by

typhoon.

1999年的十號風球將飛機吹翻，堵塞7一條機

場跑道，令機場運作大受影響。立法會亦於近年

要求香港機場管理局解釋颱風所造成的混亂。

透過對香港機場管理局的訪問得知，有關天氣條

件的營運風險是一種重複發生的問題，會嚴重影

響到運作時間和送運的可靠性，甚至令香港賠上

高質物流服務的聲譽。

According to the Airpo付 Meteorological Office, operational risk

related to weather conditions is a recurring risk that may severely

a仟ect punctuality and reliability of delivery. This is one of the key

factors a仟ecting the delivery of high quality services for which the

Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is renowned.

不少物流公司都會利用由香港天文台所提供的天

氣預測服務來減低由不穩定天氣所造成的損失。

但基於香港獨特的地理位置，香港機場管理局建

立7一套獨有的天氣預測系統，並參考系統提供

的風向 、 風速、能見度及雲量等重要數據，進行

航班編排。雷電警告訊號則用於提示室外工作的

安全性。

Most logistics companies rely on the weather forecast by Hong

Kong Observatory, as weather conditions are less likely a仟ecting

them seriously c0mparatively. However, HKIA has an independent

weather forecasting system due to its unique location. The wind

direction, wind speed, visibility, cloud amount and cloud base,

etc., are taken into account for any necessary changes in the

刊ights. The lightning warning signals are consulted to determine

whether it is safe for outdoor work.

除7預測系統外，應變中心還設有各種完善的緊

急應變措施，以有效地處理香港機場的緊急情況

。常規的應變演習也有助於機管局加強內部溝通

和改善物資管理。

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Apart from the forecasting system, an emergency center, with a

set of well ” made contingency plans, w·as drawn up by the Airport

Authority to e仟ectively coordinate di仟erent units in urgent

situations. Regular emergency drills are conducted as well to

facilitate communications between pa前ies for better resources

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Future Developinent of Hong Kong’s Logistics Industry

The idea of globalization has led to an increasingly complex

logistics industry. To alleviate the market pressures of cost and

time, new business intelligence technology has been employed.

With additional pressure from terrorism and environmental

protection, the global logistics industry is currently facing

di仟erent challenges. As the busiest cargo airpo吋 with 4 million

tons of freight handled per day, and the 3rd largest container port

in the world, numerous obstacles confront Hong Kong's logistics

industry in its quest to retain its position as an e仟ective

transshipment hub between Asia and America.

However, rising operating costs, changes in supply chain model,

shifting of production patterns and competition for talents are

now serious issues for the local logistics industry. Furthermore,

with reference to the rapid growth of logistics industries in other

nearby cities such as Singapore and Shanghai, improving the

quality of infrastructure, upgrading the logistics capabili'ties,

enhancing the import and export ordinances and o仟ering training

to logistics professions are suggested as solutions to help Hong

Kong to retain its position in ·the global logistics industry. Only

then will the local logistics industry maintain its position as a key

contributor to local GDP, highlighting the importance of Hong

Kong to the world.

香湛物流業的未來發展

全球（七概念增加7物流業的複雜性。為7舒緩市

場在時間和開支方面的壓力，業界逐步引人新的

商業智能工具。恐怖襲擊帶出的安全問題和環境

保護的理念，都為全球物流業帶來了新的挑戰。

香港擁有每日能處理400萬噸貨物的貨運機場和

全球第三大貨櫃碼頭，但要繼續保持其作為亞美

貨物中轉站的地位，物流業同樣面對無數挑戰。

但營運開支的增加、運輸鏈模式的改變、製造形

式的轉移及人才競爭都是現時本土行業亟待處理

的議題。同時，由於新加坡和上海等周邊城市開

始重點發展其物流業，香港物流業將需要進一步

增加物流基建、提升本土的貨物吸納能力、完善

出人口的管制條例及加強培訓專業人士，從而保

持香港的物流業國際領先地位、持續支持本土的

生產總值，以及維持香港在全球的重要地位。

As aforementioned, the development of ζhinese po吋s pose

several challenges to Hong Kong’s logistics industry. With the

assistance of technology, the shipment center in Yantian is now

able to handle TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) in an

efficient way. It is sta吋ing to replace Hong Kong as a transport

hub to China. Apa吋 from development, the fees charged by

Yantian po吋 are much lower than those of Hong Kong which is

attractive to users who need to reduce their operational cost. In

the meantime, when compared with Singapore, Japan and

Taiwan, technology support to the industry is insu而cient, this

will lengthen the processing time and increase the chances of

making an error.

如上所述，中國港口的發展緊迫香港 。 在完

善科技的幫助下，中國鹽田港現時已有能力

處理大型的貨櫃，更開始挑戰香港物流業的

地位 。 鹽田不但發展迅速，其貨運費用亦較

香港為低，這都有助其吸引更多客戶 。 相比

新加坡 、 日本和台灣，香港物流業在應用資

訊科技方面明顯落後，這會導致貨物處理時

間延長及增加出錯的機會 。

有業界人士指出，在未來數年，物流業對人

才的需求將會激增，因此業界應加強在中學

及大學的推廣，以吸引新人人行 。 除7貨運

管理外，業界對法律和業務管理人才的需求

Some professions have proposed that as the demand for 亦顯著上升 。 做好教育和推廣，有助於提升

logistics talent is one of the biggest issues in the future, the 本地物流業的人才質票，從而改善業界的生

industry can promote themselves more in high schools and 產力 。

colleges. Apart from cargo management, functions related to

logistics, e.g. law and business, also need talent. Due to the

improvement in education, high productivity of local logistics

industry can then be maintained by high quality candidates.

What can the H。ng Kong Government do?

Build logistic infrastructure

Set up sound Regulati。n for

currency exchange

Construct ioint and und~rground

warenouse

More land for

logistic industry

Our Suggestions to Hong Kong’s logistics industry 我們給香湛物流業的建議

Online Shopping

In our eyes, although Hong Kong’s logistics industry is now facing

di仟erent kinds of risks and challenges, we believe Hong Kong still

plays a vital role in the movement of goods between Asia and

America. Since online shopping, as exempli有ed by online

shopping sites such as Taobao, has become a new trend in retail, a

new and big market is now appearing when the legislation system

between two parties is comprehensive enough to support and

protect the trading mechanism.

According to information from tmail.com, as of 11 November 2014,

the massive on line shopping website function has attracted about

刀，ooo retailers, including suppliers from overseas. We believe the

number of participants in the following years will keep increasing.

Meanwhile, the trading amount during this festival has reached

over RMB 57 billion. De有nitely, with customers from over 20

countries, transpo吋ation service for online shopping platforms is

a great oppo吋unity for investment.

網上購物

雖然香港物流業正面對著不同的挑戰和風險，但

我們相信，香港作為全球舉足輕重的物流中心，

一直都扮演著亞美兩地貨運中轉站的角色。現峙

，淘寶等網上購物成為7一種新的消費模式，隨

著保障買賣雙方交易的法律制度日趨完善，一個

全新和大型的市場亦會隨之成形。

天貓網的資料顯示，於2014年11月 11 日所舉辦

的大型網上購物活動，吸引7約27000家零售商

參與，當中包括海外的零售商店，交易金額更超

過57億人民幣。我們相信日後如有類似的活動，

參加活動的人數將會進一步上升。從來自逾20個

國家的顧客人數可知，安排運輸服務支援網上購

物是一個值得投資的範疇。

On 11 November. 2014, Massive Online Shopping Function

. Custome~s

From over 20 countries

Trading Amount

Over RMB 5,700,000.00 Reta1illers

More than 27,000

Business Intelligence Development 商業智能的發展

如上所述，業界對商業智能科技和人才需求日增

。我們提議大型企業利用其資源設立一個部門，

以專門處理透過日常業務所獲取的數據。對於成

長中的中小企，則可透過與電腦及顧問公司合作

的方式發展業務。例如，中小型物流公司可與數

碼港及香港科學園內一些新興的資訊科技公司合

作，以較低廉的成本發展數據處理，從而達致雙

Furthermore, as mentioned above, the snowballing demand for

business intelligence technique and talents are the main

perplexity of local, if not global, logistics enterprises. It is

suggested that large companies with su而cient resources should

set up a dedicated department to handle the flow of big data

from its daily business. For SMEs, they can co-operate with IT

companies and consultants. As the Hong Kong Government has

long been a supporter of IT companies, it is undoubtedly a

win-win approach for SMEs in the logistics sector to employ

specialized companies in Cyberport or Hong Kong Science Park 政府的支持

的 the cost should be modest.

Government Suppa付

In addition, since restrictions in exchanging between Hong Kong

dollar and Renminbi have been removed, this will surely enhance

the use of Renminbi and thus, foster the business cycle.

Therefore, to make full use of our location advantage, the Hong

Kong Government should take the initiative to establish a

complete set of rules to protect the industry to cater to the rapid

changes in information technology.

盲鵬

香港最近取消7港幣和人民幣兌換的限制，這樣

，業界將可以使用人民幣進行交易，從而加快交

易周期。香港如要更進一步利用其作為人民幣離

岸市場的地理優勢，應制定相關法例來保障業界

，以及應對資訊科技需求的急速上升。

但香港人口及統計部的數據顯示，物流業的營運

成本持續上升。由於香港土地直乏，可用的貨倉

數量嚴重不足，因此物流業的營運日益困難。雖

然香港擁有優質的設施，但亦存在數量不足的問

題。香港政府應投放更多資源保障物流業界，維

However, according to statistics from the Census and Statistics 持香港物流業的競爭力。

Department, operating costs have been increasing in recent

years. With an insu而cient number of warehouses due to the lack

of land, running a logistics business is now more difficult than in

the past. Although Hong Kong has excellent infrastructure, the

red light is 刊ashing. To maintain the competitiveness of its logistic

industry, the government should allocate more resources to this

sector to prevent the demise of this important industry.

In addition, apart from warehouses, developing the logistics industry

requires a large amount of land for relevant facilities such as airports

and container terminals. Although the third runway for the Hong Kong

International Airport is in discussion, our suggestion for the local

logistics industry is to construct multi個company warehouses since

these facilities can help companies, especially SMEs, to reduce their

operational cost and, on the other hand, they occupy a smaller amount

of land. Furthermore, building underground warehouses could be one

method to alleviate the tension of shortage of land because freight

warehouses are usually located indoors, in windowless facilities

without direct sunlight. As long as there is su而cient space for the

movement of forklifts and trucks and storage of goods within the

building and there is water and electricity supply, underground

warehouses could be a solution to the problem of shortage of land in

Hong Kong.

除7貨倉以外，發展物流業同時亦需要大量的土地

來建設相闋的設施，例如機場及港口。雖然香港己

就建設機場第三條跑道展開討論，但仍要面對設施

短缺的問題。我們認為，各物流公司可考慮共建及

共用貨倉等資源。這一方面可以幫助減低營運成本

，特別是對於中小企而言﹔另一方面則可減少佔用

的土地。除此以外，興建地底貨倉亦有助於緩和土

地不足的問題。貨倉毋需自然光和優美的環境，只

要能解決室內貨物運輸和水電問題便可，因此可透

過興建地底貨倉，解決物流業用地直乏的的問題。

Establishment of Risk Management Depa吋ment

According to our survey, the function of risk management in the

logistics industry is usually shared by di仟erent departments,

usually legal，有nance and operations. It is suggested that due to

the increasing complexity of the global logistics industry, a

speci行c risk management department should be set up to handle

the challenges in the future and reduce losses due to a sudden

crisis by setting up a series of responses. Actually, risk

management is not only relevant to the banking industry but all

kinds of business. Therefore, logistics companies should pay

more attention to risk management. Regarding the rapid

changes in global trading conditions and style, the logistics

industry is now gaining in importance in goods interchange over

any part of the World. As a result, to maintain and grow their

business, logistics companies should focus on market needs and

concentrate on developing their core business to face future

cha I lenges.

設立風險管理部門

根據我們的訪問，物流公司的風險管理工作大多

都由多個不同部門分擔，如法律 、 金融和營運部

門等 。 由於全球物流業的複雜性不斷增加，各公

司應成立風險管理專業部門來應對未來的挑戰，

並負責制訂各種政策來減低由突發事件所帶來的

損失 。 而事實上，風險管理不是銀行獨有的部門

或領域，各公司都有可以 、 亦有必要成立風險管

理部門 。 有見及此，物流公司需要更加重視業務

的風險管理 。 鑑於全球交易方式及條件在不斷轉

益，物流業正對全球的貨物交換起著重要的作用

。 要持續發展物流業，物流企業必須因應市場需

求發展業務，迎接日後的各大挑戰 。

Acknowledgem.ents

Group Mem.bers

’,-

’. -~平斗

『~·

鳴謝

Ms. Maria Luk Assistant General Manager, Aviation Logis­

tics, Hong Kong International Airport

Mr. Michael Benhamou Assistant General Manager, Sales & Market­

ing, Oriental Logistics Company Ltd.

小組成員

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Year 3 Students of Risk Management and Business Intelligence 風險管理及商業智能學系三年級生

Black Monday ( 1987), the Asian Financial ζrisis ( 1997), the

Dot-comζrash (2001), the Euro Crisis (2010 ). There is no lack of

example of unexpected economic downturn in history. Stock

price plunges and it usually take years for an economy to

recover from a recession. Meanwhile, there is a very great

chance of credit default and postponed loan repayment. Such

an environment will de有nitely be more challenging for banks to

operate and make a pro航．

Banks are vulnerable to extensive credit default and money

withdrawal. Problem arises when they do not have a su而cient

amount of cash flow or capital reserve to deal with daily

operations. The situation worsens during a global market

downturn or 有nancial crisis. Banks will encounter liquidity

problems and, it goes without saying, experience extra

pressure. Therefore, it is imperative that they put aside a certain

amount of capital reserve to bu仟er sudden and unexpected

cash outflow. Yet what is its benchmark? Who is responsible for

setting it? How is this impacting the 有nancial market and

banking industry? There are a lot of questions for us to consider.

7:) 『三=1力力

黑色星期一（1987） 、 亞洲金融風暴（1997） 、 科網般爆

破（2001） 、 歐債危機（2010)......歷史上不乏偶發性經

濟危機的例子 。 股價大瀉後，通常都要經歷數年的低

述時期 。 期間的信貸違約和延遲還款機會大增，必定

會為銀行的運作及盈利能力帶來莫大挑戰 。

若出現大規模的信貸違約及擠提，銀行便可能沒有足

夠的流動資金或資本儲備應付日常運作需求，從而在

營運上出現困難 。 在全球經濟正值金融危機侵襲階段

，情況將會因流動資金更加置乏而變得更差，這無疑

會對銀行構成額外壓力 。 為此，銀行應該保持一定程

度的資本儲備，以應付突發性的大量資金外流 。 那麼

，儲備的標準是什麼？由誰負責釐足？而這些標準又

會怎樣影響金融市場及銀行業的發展？很多問題都值

得我們認真思考 。

History and Evolution of Basel

In 1974, The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS)

was established by the central bank governors of the Group of

Ten, or G10, industrial countries, with the objectives to provide

intuitions and enhance understanding of key supervisory issues,

as well as improve banking supervision worldwide. BζBS sets

international regulato門 guidelines for banking supervision, for

instance, capital requirements and leverage ratio. This has

become a well-recognized standard for the banking industry to

follow.

In 1988, Basel I was released which marked the 有rst Basel debut.

It primarily focused on credit risk and risk-weighting of assets.

However, in order to better supervise capital levels in the

ever-changing 有nancial world, the benchmark has changed from

time to time. Higher capital requirements were proposed and

market liquidity risk was the reason for more careful monitoring.

As a result, the Basel Accord was revised and eventually Basel II

& Ill were released.

巴塞爾協定的廢史演他

巴塞爾銀行監理委員會（下稱巴塞爾銀豆豆會） 於

1974年正式成立。它由十個國家的中央銀行監

管機構組合而成，目的是提高各國金融機構對

監管事宜的7解及認識，並提升監管的素質。

巴塞爾銀監會負責制定國際監管規範，例如資

本要求及橫桿比率，從而為各國銀行提供一個

受廣泛認可的標準供業界遵從。

《巴塞爾協定。於1988年頒佈實施，內容主要

圍繞信貸風險及資產的風險配額，並為日後改

良的版本奠下基礎。為7繁貼瞬息萬變的金融

世界，監管規範需要隨著時間作出調整，以更

準確地規管資本水平。由於需要提高資本要求

及加強規管市場資金流動性下行風險，巴塞爾

協定得到7持續的改良和優忙，《巴塞爾協定II

》與《巴塞爾協定III｝因而相繼頒佈實施。

Impact on local banks

An analysis of the costs and bene有ts of the Basel Accord for

Hong Kong’s economy summarized in the table below was

performed with reference to the research done by H KMA's

research department on 9 Nov 2010. It is known that an increase

in reserve capital and liquidity ratio, and a decrease in leverage

ratio will reduce the GDP of Hong Kong. One of the reasons is

that banks will charge a higher lending rate to compensate for

the cost of complying with the new regulations. In a positive

sense, this can reduce the risk of a 有nancial crisis and the

respective GDP loss.

According to the report, the local banking industry could bene有t

from the new Basel regulations with a higher rate of RWA (Risk

Weighted Asset). From Table 1, by considering the temporary

e仟ect of a 有nancial crisis, the bene有t to Hong Kong’s economy

would be maximized at 10 % RWA. It was estimated that the new

regulation would generate a net bene侃 of 0.17% for Hong

Kong’s GDP. On the other hand, by focusing on the permanent

e仟ect, the bene有t would be maximized at 11% RWA. It was

estimated that the new regulation would generate a net bene肘

。f 2.76% for Hong Kong’s GDP, which is a considerable amount.

對本地銀行的影響

以下巴塞爾協定對香港經濟帶來的代價與得益的

分析，是根據香港金融管理局研究團隊於2010年

11月9日完成的研究而作出的。我們知道，資本

儲備和資金流動性上升及槓桿比率下降都會降低

本地生產總值（GDP），其中一個原因，是銀行會

收取較高的借貸利息以彌補在新法規下的經營成

本。故此，從正面的角度看，嚴謹的法規可以減

低金融危機發生的風險，並相應減低金錢和GDP

損失。

研究報告顯示，本地銀行業能受惠於《巴塞爾協

定III｝中有關提高資產風險配額要求的規定。由

衷一可見，在分析金融危機對香港的短暫影響峙

，在最佳回報為資產風險配額百分之十的情況下

，估計《協定》會為香港貢獻0.17%GDP O 另一

方面，在分析其永久影響時，在最佳回報為資產

風險配額百分之十一的情況下，估計《協定》會

為香港貢獻2.76%GDP ，這是一個非常可觀的數

字。

Table 1. Estimated net benefit fo1· Hong Kong

Tempo1·a1γ GDP loss Pe1~manent GDP loss

TCE/RWA Expected Cost G1·oss Net Benefit G1·oss Net Benefit （＇句） Benefit (o/o) (%) Benefit (O/o) (%)

9% 0.04 0.20 0.16 2.15 2.11

10% 0.08 0 .26 0.17 2 .75 2 .67

11% 0 .13 0 .27 0.14 2.88 2.76

12% 0.17 0.27 0.10 2.91 2.74

13% 0.21 0.27 0.06 2.91 2.70

14% 0.25 0 .27 0.02 2.91 2.66

15% 0.30 0 .27 -0 .02 2.91 2 .61 Notes: (1) The initial value ofTCE/RWA is assumed to be 8% .

(2) Following BCBS (2010), all figm·es in the table ru·e exp1·essed as as pe1·centage of p1·e-crisis 倒mualGDP. The p1·e-c1·isis 創mual GDP fo1· Hong Kong is taken as the 1·eal annual GDP in 1998、 which

preceded the onset of a pe1·iod of banking disn·ess in Hong Kong in 1999 Q 1 、 when the classified loan 1·atio reached 10.06% . Fo1· details, see Annex A.

Sottrce: Staff calcttlations

The report also suggests the influence of the new regulations on

Hong Kong would be less sign的cant than that estimated by BζBS.

From Chart 1 and ζhart 2 below, the net bene航 of the new

regulations after a 有nancial crisis in Hong Kong would be around

0.07% less on average assuming a temporary drop in GDP, while it

would be 2.7% less on average, assuming a permanent loss in GDP

due to the crisis.

Cha1·t 1. E stimatecl net benefit (assuming a tempo1·a1y GDP loss

a食e1· a b姐姐ng c1isis)

o/cQ.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-'0.1

BCBS

Hong 反ong

9o/o 10°/o 11°/o 12% 13% 14% 15o/o

TCE/附VA

Sol11·ce: Staff calculations

%7.0

6.0

5.0

4.。3.0

2.0 1.0

0.。

研究報告亦有指出新協定對香港的影響比巴塞爾

銀監會所預計的為小，從圖一及圓二可見，假設

金融危機帶來短期性GDP虧損，香港得到的預計

淨收益比巴塞爾銀監會所預計的平均少0.07% ﹔

若假設金融危機帶來永久性GDP虧損，香港得到

的預計淨收益則比巴塞爾銀監會所預計的平均少

2.7% 。

Cha1·t 2. Estimated net benefit (ass1uning a pe1mane11t GDP loss

afte1· a ba此時αisis)

BCBS~

Hong Kong一

9o/o 10°/o 11% 12o/o 13% 14o/o 15%

TCE/RvVA

Sotu·ce: Staff calcl1lations

The reasons given by the research team are two-fold. On the

one hand, the probability of a 有nancial crisis will not be a仟ected

much by capital ratio, but crucially by the level of liquidity in the

banking system. An additional percentage increase in RWA will

only reduce the probability “marginally’,. On the other hand,

the drop in GDP resulting from the 有nancial crisis would cause a

significantly smaller loss to Hong Kong according to statistics.

For example, during the 1999 有nancial crisis, the loss predicted

by the BCBS was around 158% of GDP. Yet the maximum loss to

Hong Kong would be around 133% of GDP, given that the

banking distress was happened repeatedly.

A low credit spread and high amount of capital retainment are

the two major di而culties for banks in Hong Kong in following

Basel Ill. As it requires banks to keep a 4.5% common equity, 6%

Tier 1 capital and more importantly a higher liquidity ratio, its

ability to leverage capital will be capped and profitability

lowered. Thus in the foreseeable future, it will be harder for

banks to do business and earn revenue.

研究團隊提出兩個主要原因：第一，金融危機發

生的機率並不會只因資本比率而產生太大變動。

反之，整體銀行業的資金流動性會很大程度影響

到其機率，而資產風險配額的百分比上升則只會

降低金融危機發生的「邊際機率 J 。第二，根據

統計數據，金融危機給香港帶來的經濟損失遠比

巴塞爾銀監會預計的少。舉例說，於1999年金融

風暴期間，巴塞爾銀監會預計各經濟體的虧蝕為

該地方生產總值的158% ，可是在銀行業持續低迷

的前提下，香港的虧蝕仍只為生產總值的133% 。

低信用利差與高資本儲備是香港銀行遵守《巴塞

爾協定III》的兩大困難之處。由於它需要銀行持

有4.5%普通股本、 6%一級資本不日更高資金流動

性比率，銀行的資本槓桿能力和盈利能力將會被

降低。因此，在可見的未來，銀行業的營運只會

越來越困難，盈利能力亦會備受考驗。

從國外經驗得到的啟示

Lessons learned froni overseas 為符合《綜合資本分析與評估》及《巴塞爾協定

III｝的要求，許多金融機構均展開架構重組，有

To tackle the challenges of CζAR ( Comprehensive Capital 些銀行更趁機刪減部分部門。

Analysis and Review) and Basel 111, many financial institutions

are choosing to restructure their business to meet compliance

requirements. Some banks may even shed certain business

lines in response to the new capital requirements.

Recently, for example, Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) shut down

its equity research and equity capital markets business around

the world, and focused on retail and corporate lending. The bank

is implementing “RWA Optimization Strategies” to optimize RWA

and use of capital to minimize regulato門 impact. On the one

hand, SCB has purged less-pr。而table departments to conform

with the proposed capital requirements. On the other hand, it has

more e而ciently allocated its resources to further develop its core

competencies. Hence, Basel Accords urge banks to simplify their

business models and operate according to their competitive

edge.

In the future, regulations will only tighten. We have to see how

banks will evolve in response so it may be a pull or a push to

banking industry reformation. No one is sure about how the

banking environment will change, but we know well that it will

indeed be an economically safer world - which is the primary aim

of the Basel Accords.

Text 撰文

LEE Tung Kiu

LO Ka Chun

李東橋

盧嘉駿

TAM Kiu Fai

LEE Kwok Ho

Year 3 Students of Risk Management and Business Intelligence

風險管理及商業智能學系三年級生

例如，最近渣打銀行裁減7全球詣券研究和諧券

資本市場業務，將更多的精力投放於散戶及企業

借貸。其應用7 「資產風險配額優他策略」來達

到最佳風險配額和資本應用，以將監管的影響減

到最低。一方面，該兩個業務是盈利能力較低的

範疇，資源重新分配可以更有效地達到資本要求

﹔另一方面，資源可以分配到重點項目或盈利能

力較強的部門，以鞏固及加強自身的競爭優勢。

所以《巴塞爾協定》要求銀行簡t其運作模式及

精簡架構，並在運作上充分利用其競爭優勢。

監管法規在日後只會變得越來越嚴格，從而令銀

行需要找尋相對應的措施進行變革，但這種變革

是好是壞仍是未知之數。沒有人能夠預知銀行業

在未來會變成甚麼樣﹔但我們知道，這一切都是

為7讓人們有一個更安全、更有保障的經濟環境

。這亦是《巴塞爾協定》最首要的目標。

譚翹輝

李國浩

Risk Management and Business Intelligence Program

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Phone: 2358 6955

Advisors 顧問

Fax: 3104 0026 Email : rmbi@ust.hk

Website: http://www.rmbi.ust.hk

Some illustrations in the newsletter are from

- wikipedia

- www.hko.gov.hk

Prof. Lei CH EN 陳雷教授Prof. Xianhua PENG 彭獻華教授D仁 Adela S. M. LAU 劉秀梅博士

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