Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement
-
Upload
khangminh22 -
Category
Documents
-
view
4 -
download
0
Transcript of Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement
Module 4
Common Stock Valuation &
Performance Measurement
by
Jason G. Hovde, CIMA®, CFP®, APMA®
7350
© 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
This publication may not be duplicated in any way without the express written consent of the publisher. The information contained herein is for the personal use of the reader and may not be incorporated in any commercial programs, other books, databases, or any kind of software or any kind of electronic media including, but not limited to, any type of digital storage mechanism without written consent of the publisher or authors. Making copies of this material or any portion for any purpose other than your own is a violation of United States copyright laws.
The College for Financial Planning does not certify individuals to use the CFP, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL
PLANNER™, and CFP (with flame logo)® marks. CFP® certification is granted solely by Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. to individuals who, in addition to completing an educational requirement such as this CFP Board-Registered Program, have met its ethics, experience, and examination requirements. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP, CERTIFIED
FINANCIAL PLANNER™, and federally registered CFP (with flame logo)®, which it awards to individuals who successfully complete initial and ongoing certification requirements.
At the College’s discretion, news, updates, and information regarding changes/updates to courses or programs may be posted to the College’s website at www.cffp.edu, or you may call the Student Services Center at 1-800-237-9990.
Table of Contents Study Plan/Syllabus ................................................................ 1
Learning Activities ............................................................. 2
Exam Formula Sheet ........................................................... 4
Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock ............................................... 5
Importance of Dividends ..................................................... 5
Dividend Basics .................................................................. 6
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation ................................................ 13
Definitions ........................................................................ 13
DDM Alternatives ............................................................ 15
The Zero Growth Model ................................................... 17
Constant Growth DDM ..................................................... 18
The Non-Constant Growth Model ..................................... 25
Valuation Exercise—Merck & Co. .................................... 29
P/E Ratio .......................................................................... 32
Summary .......................................................................... 35
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation ...................... 38
Investment Policy Statements (IPS) .................................. 38
Security and Portfolio Performance Evaluation ................. 45
Risk/Return ...................................................................... 47
Jensen Index (alpha) ......................................................... 50
Sharpe Index ..................................................................... 52
Treynor Index ................................................................... 55
Information Ratio (IR) ...................................................... 56
Determining the Market Rate ............................................. 57
Asset Class Benchmarks .................................................... 61
Risk-Adjusted Performance ............................................... 65
Mutual Fund Comparison .................................................. 67
Summary ................................................................................ 75
Module Review ...................................................................... 77
Questions .......................................................................... 77
Answers ............................................................................ 93
About the Author ................................................................. 127
References ............................................................................ 128
Index .................................................................................... 129
Study Plan/Syllabus 1 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Study Plan/Syllabus he efficient market hypothesis is one of the most controversial elements
of modern portfolio theory, and its proponents argue that beating the
indexes is next to impossible. This module will deal with its detractors
who argue that the anomalies to the theory support active portfolio management.
This module will discuss stock valuation techniques and how to make securities
decisions using these techniques. Performance measurement approaches are
discussed, including how to use those approaches to improve security selection.
The chapters in this module are:
Dividends on Stock
Equity Valuation
Security Performance Evaluation
Upon completion of this module you should be able to apply the dividend growth
model to compute a security’s intrinsic value, and be able to apply security
performance measures to evaluate how well a security performed against
various market indexes. You should also be able to determine which market
indexes are appropriate for evaluating different asset classes within a portfolio.
This module starts with a discussion of dividends, which then leads into the
various valuation models that are used extensively by investment analysts to
determine if a particular stock is overvalued, undervalued, or appropriately
valued. You are expected to understand the valuation concepts, apply the
concepts, and then use the concepts to help clients make investment decisions.
The ability to determine value is essential, and you should experiment with your
own scenarios to test the depth of your understanding of the concepts.
Next we cover the basics of investment policy statements, the use of which has
become widespread in the investment community. You should know the basic
components of an IPS. Some very important performance measurements are then
T
2 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
introduced including Jensen (alpha), Treynor, and Sharpe. You should become
very familiar with these measurements including how and when to use them.
Choosing the appropriate benchmark is important, as is understanding when or
when not to use beta. This is an extremely important module, and you should
take the time necessary to master its learning objectives. For those in the
investment field, this is knowledge that you should have in order to better serve
your clients.
Learning Activities Learning Activities
Learning Objective Readings
Module Review Questions
4–1 Analyze the impact of different types of cash and stock distributions on shareholders and on the company.
Module 4, Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock
1–13
4–2 Explain terminology related to equity investment valuation models.
Module 4, Chapter 2: Equity Valuation
14–18
4–3 Calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using various stock valuation techniques or calculate the expected return of a stock.
19–23
4–4 Evaluate the appropriateness of investment decisions based on stock valuation models.
24–33
4–5 Explain the various components of the Investment Policy Statement (IPS).
Module 4, Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation
34, 35
4–6 Explain the characteristics, uses, and limitations of stock performance measurement indexes.
Module 4, Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation
36–40
Study Plan/Syllabus 3 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Learning Activities
Learning Objective Readings
Module Review Questions
4–7 Calculate one or more stock performance measurement indexes for given portfolio returns and risk.
41–43
4–8 Specify relationships among various indicators of security returns.
44–49
4–9 Evaluate the risk-adjusted performances of alternative investment securities or portfolios to recommend the most appropriate selection for a given client situation.
50–53
4 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Exam Formula Sheet
gr
DV
−= 1
gP
Dr += 1
ifmfi rrrr β)( −+=
1 n
)r (r
2n
−−
= σ
i
i
i
i
mean
Sor
xCV −=
σ
imm
i RS
S×=β or
m
iimi σ
σρβ =
ijjijjii COVW2W W W 2222
p ++= σσσ
ij jiijCOV σσρ=
ji
ijij
Rσσ ×
=COV
yyc
ycty
y
yDur
t +−+−++−+=]1)1[(
)()1(1
+Δ−=Δ
y
yDP
1
sPCP
ParCV ×=
Pc
PcISHPR
−+=
RatetionCapitalizaNOIV =
p
fpp
rrT
β−
=
p
fpp
rrS
σ−
=
[ ]pfmfp rrrra β)( −+−=
A
BP RRIR
σ−=
PLEASE NOTE: You do not need to memorize these formulas for the exam. An exact copy of this formula sheet will be provided to you when you log on to take your IP exam. Also, the formula sheet for the CFP Certification Examination will be different from this exam formula sheet. Prior to taking the exam, please check with the CFP Board regarding their current exam formula sheet.
Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock 5 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock Reading this chapter will enable you to:
4–1 Analyze the impact of different types of cash and stock distributions
on shareholders and on the company.
Importance of Dividends
uring the investment market of the mid-1990s, many investors tended to
minimize the relevance of dividends. One of the reasons they did this
was the fact that dividends took a back seat to capital appreciation during
the bull market run of the decade. Another reason was that many corporations
reduced their dividend payout rate, which led to the lowest historical dividend yield
on stocks in the 20th century.
In spite of this trend, dividends play an important role in both theory and practice
in the investment area. Historically, dividends have accounted for approximately
40% of the total return on securities (Dow Jones & Company website, 2006).
One of the EMH anomalies mentioned in Module 3 is that stocks with high
dividend rates often have historically outperformed stocks with low dividend
rates. For example, the “Dogs of the Dow” investment strategy uses the 10 Dow
Industrial Average stocks with the highest dividend yields to form a portfolio.
Dividends play an important role in the valuation of stocks, as you will see in the
next chapter. The dividend discount model is the key element used by many
professional investment managers in determining stock valuation. Famed Omaha
investor Warren Buffett uses the model in his valuation computations.
D
6 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Dividend Basics
The focus of most investment analysis is earnings per share. A company’s
earnings, and especially its earnings surprises, drive the performance of the
company’s stock.
Many companies, especially the large, mature companies typically found in the
major stock market indexes such as the S&P 500 average, pay a portion of their
earnings per share to shareholders in the form of dividends. Unlike interest
payments on a company’s bonds, a company does not have a legal requirement to
pay dividends. The company’s board of directors determines if a dividend should
be paid. As a practical matter, once established, boards tend to be reluctant to cut
or eliminate dividend payments to stockholders, but will do so if slumping
business conditions make that prudent. Dividends on both preferred stock and
common stock normally are paid quarterly so a company that, say, pays $1.00 per
share annually would pay $0.25 per share every three months.
Preferred stockholders receive a fixed annual dividend amount per share. Some
preferred stock have a feature called “cumulative” which means if a dividend is
missed, all such dividends must be made up before common stockholders receive
their dividends.
Common stockholders receive a dividend only after the preferred stockholders
receive their dividends. Since common shareholders are entitled to a claim on the
residual earnings after bondholders and preferred stockholders are paid,
hopefully their dividends will increase over time as the company’s earnings
increase, a major attraction to owning common stock. Some dividend-paying
companies aim to pay a common stock dividend that is a set percentage of
earnings.
For example, assume that a company’s earnings per share is $2.00 and that the
company has decided that it likes to pay approximately 30% of its earnings as a
dividend. In this example, the company would pay 30% of $2.00, or $.60, per
share to common stockholders. This percentage is called the dividend payout
ratio or simply the payout ratio.
Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock 7 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Special Dividend
Sometimes a company will pay a special dividend beyond their regular dividend
if they have had especially strong earnings in a year. Usually this is due to a
buildup of corporate cash, with the board deciding this is an appropriate way to
share the company’s success with the common stockholders.
For example, on October 24, 2012, Wynn Resorts Ltd. declared a cash dividend
of $8 a share, which included the usual $0.50 quarterly dividend and $7.50 per
share of a special dividend. This dividend was payable November 20 of that year
to shareholders on record as of November 7.
Key Dividend Distribution Dates
Many dates are associated with dividends. On the declaration date, the board of
directors of the corporation declares that a dividend will be paid and identifies
the key dates. On the distribution date, the dividend is actually paid to
shareholders. These dates are easy to remember.
The dates that students have difficulty with are the ex-dividend date and the
record date. The record date is the date that the corporation closes its books and
identifies who the shareholders are. Anyone who is a shareholder on the record
date is entitled to receive the dividend.
Securities laws require that all trades be cleared (settled) in three business days.
That is, anyone who receives a confirmation that a trade has been executed will
not actually be the owner of record until three business days later, when all
financial aspects of the trade are settled. Therefore, anyone who buys a security
three business days before the record date will be a registered shareholder on the
record date.
An investor who buys a security two business days before the record date will
have his or her trade cleared one day after the record date and will not be entitled
to the dividend. Therefore, the day two business days before the record date is
known as the ex-dividend (without dividend) date. In other words, an investor
8 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
who receives confirmation that a trade has been executed two business days
before the record date will not receive the dividend that is to be paid on the next
distribution date.
Example. Cash Cow Inc. is going to pay out a dividend with a distribution date
of September 10 to shareholders who were on the corporation’s books as
shareholders on the record date of August 10. Assuming that August 10 was a
Monday, two business days before that date was Thursday, August 6. Therefore,
August 6 will be the ex-dividend date because trades executed on August 6
would not be cleared until three business days thereafter, on August 11, which
was one day after the record date. Note that if you buy on Wednesday, August
5th, your trade will settle on August 10th—in time for the dividend.
Wednesday
Aug. 5thThursday
Aug. 6th
Ex-dividend
Tuesday
Aug. 11th
BusinessDay 3
BusinessDay 2
BusinessDay 1
Friday
Aug. 7thMonday
Aug. 10th
record date
A trade that will settle on the example record date of Aug.10th—in time for the dividend.
Stock Dividend
Most dividends are paid in cash. Some are paid in additional shares of a
company’s stock, called a stock dividend. (Be aware that cash dividend and stock
dividend are precise terms that refer to different types of dividends. Often
investors will loosely use the term stock dividend when they actually are
referring to a cash dividend.) The payment of a stock dividend may occur when a
company wants to conserve cash but does not want to alienate shareholders. It
could be that a company is having financial difficulties or it may simply decide
Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock 9 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
there are better uses for its cash. In these situations, the company does not want
to increase the cash dividend, so it provides a stock dividend instead.
Many stockholders perceive that their wealth has increased because they own
more shares after the stock distribution. Actually, shareholder wealth is
unchanged because the market price of the stock is lowered on the distribution
date to reflect the fact that the overall market value of the company remains
unchanged; it is now simply divided over an increased number of shares. Each
shareholder’s proportionate share of ownership of the company is unchanged
because each shareholder has experienced the same proportionate increase in the
number of shares owned.
Example—10% stock dividend. Assume an investor originally owns 100 shares
at $50 per share ($5,000 value). Immediately after a 10% stock dividend the
investor would own 110 shares priced at $45.45 (still a $5,000 value).
Stock Split
A stock split is somewhat like a stock dividend, in that each shareholder owns
more shares after the split than before. However, unlike a stock dividend, a stock
split is not authorized in lieu of paying cash dividends.
A stock split occurs when corporate management decides to lower the market
price of a stock in order to encourage more investors to purchase shares of the
company. By splitting the stock, management communicates to the investment
community that the company must be successful because its shares have
appreciated so much that the stock must split to lower its price to a more
reasonable level. It is both a psychological and a practical move for company
management.
The most common stock splits are two-for-one splits or three-for-two splits. In a two-for-one split, the investor who owns 200 shares before the split will own 400 shares after the split. In a three-for-two split, the investor who owns 200 shares before the split will own 300 shares after the split. The market value of the stock is adjusted on the day of the split. For example, in the two-for-one split, if the
10 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
market price of the stock is $40 per share on the day before the split, it will be $20 per share on the day of the split. Therefore, the investor’s total market value is unchanged ($8,000).
To calculate the new price per share in a stock split you would divide the original price per share by the ratio of the new stock to the old. Here are a few examples (assume a $100 original stock price in each example):
2 for 1 split $100/(2/1) = $50
3 for 2 split $100/(3/2) = $66.67
3 for 1 split $100/(3/1) = $33.33
Reverse Split
For various reasons some companies have their stock price decline to low levels. The problem with this is twofold. First, there is a perception problem with potential shareholders. Many investors do not want to invest in “penny stocks.” A low share price does not exude success. Another problem is with analysts and brokerage firms. Many firms will not even look at a stock that is trading at less than $5 or $10 per share. A way to address this problem is a reverse split, converting a certain number of “old” shares into one “new” share. For example, a company trading at 50 cents per share could do a 1-for-20 reverse split, converting 20 old shares into 1 new share. An investor with 100 pre-split shares valued at $50 (100 × $0.50) would now have 5 shares valued at $50 (5 × $10). A reverse split may temporarily help the share price, but the marketplace will continue to punish the stock price if the company does not correct the issues that drove down the price in the first place!
Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs)
Mutual fund investors have become accustomed to reinvesting all dividend and capital gains distributions by converting them into additional shares of the fund. Many individual companies also allow investors in their stocks to reinvest their cash dividend distributions by converting them into additional shares of the company’s stock.
Chapter 1: Dividends on Stock 11 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Just as with mutual fund reinvestments, the reinvested dividend distributions are
taxable dividend income to the investor. The investor is assumed to have
received the cash dividend and then reinvested that cash into additional shares of
the company’s stock. The investor’s basis would then increase by the amount
reinvested.
The first share must be purchased from a broker or directly from the company
before an investor can participate in a DRIP program. Most DRIP investors have
purchased their first shares from a broker; increasingly, companies that offer
DRIP programs are setting up their own direct-stock-purchase programs.
Two principal advantages accrue to an individual investor who participates in a
DRIP. First, the investor is able to purchase a small number of shares
periodically without having to pay a brokerage commission on each of the
purchases. Since brokerage commissions on purchases of less than 100 shares are
quite expensive (in proportion to the dollar value of stock purchased), this can
mean significant savings, especially in the early years of a DRIP program. As the
account grows, and more than 100 shares are purchased with each transaction,
this savings becomes less significant.
Second, and most important, the DRIP investor must have a long-term
perspective, since he or she is participating in a buy-and-hold program and is
adding to his or her stock holdings using a dollar-cost-averaging approach over a
long period of time. This allows an investor to build a significant position in one
or more individual stocks and to increase his or her personal net worth using a
disciplined investment strategy, without worrying about day-to-day gyrations in
the stock’s price.
A potential disadvantage of DRIPs is that an investor is adding to his or her
position in a single stock, thereby increasing unsystematic risk. This can be
minimized if the investor participates in DRIP programs for stocks in a number
of different industries.
One potential disadvantage to current shareholders who own shares in a company
that offers a DRIP, but who do not participate in the DRIP, is dilution. If the
shares being issued are coming from treasury stock, then more shares are
12 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
introduced into the marketplace, which reduces the percentage of ownership of
nonparticipating shareholders. This dilution will also impact earnings, which will
be spread over an increased number of shares.
Stock Repurchases
Sometimes a firm will repurchase some of its outstanding shares of stock as an
alternative to paying dividends. This would then increase earnings per share since
the earnings would now be spread over a decreased number of shares. There can
be various reasons for a stock repurchase. There may be stock options that have
been granted to employees for which the shares are needed. The shares may also
be repurchased to ward off an unwanted takeover attempt. If the company has too
much cash this can attract suitors, so by repurchasing shares the company will
reduce its cash amount while reducing the number of outstanding shares, which
in turn will increase earnings. This should also result in a higher stock price,
making the stock a less-likely takeover candidate.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 13 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation Reading the first part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–2 Explain terminology related to equity investment valuation models.
Definitions
he total return a security should achieve is determined by calculating its
required return. Required return is calculated by multiplying the market
risk premium by the security’s beta and then adding the risk-free return.
The security’s required return, then, is a function of its beta (systematic risk).
This is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that we have already covered:
ifmfi )rr(rr β−+=
Expected return is the total return an investor can expect from a security, given
its current price, the growth rate of its dividend, and the capital appreciation
expected (which is assumed to be the same as the expected growth rate of its
dividend). The calculation for this will be covered in more detail later in this
chapter:
gP
Dr += 1
The intrinsic value of a security is the value of a security that is computed using a
discounted cash flow approach to valuation. Dividends have been accepted by the
investment community as the critical cash flow element to discount.
An important assumption in this computation is that dividends are a constant
percentage of a corporation’s earnings; in other words, the payout ratio is
constant. If this assumption is considered valid, then the growth rate of earnings
is reflected in the growth rate of dividends. Another important assumption is that
both dividends and earnings will continue to grow indefinitely at that same
T
14 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
annual rate. If both dividends and earnings grow, then it can be assumed that the
value of the company’s stock will also continue to grow.
The equation used to compute a company’s intrinsic value using the discounted
cash flow approach is called the dividend discount model (DDM). It is also called
the dividend growth model or the constant growth dividend discount model:
gr
DV
−= 1
The calculation for this will be covered in more detail later. Once a company’s
intrinsic value is computed, then an investor will buy the stock if the current
market price is equal to or below the intrinsic value; the investor will not buy,
and indeed may sell, if the current market price is higher than the intrinsic value.
The two most difficult aspects of the dividend discount model computation are
estimating the appropriate discount rate to be used for the computation and
estimating the future growth rate of dividends.
The net discount rate used is the required return minus the dividend growth rate.
The assumption here is that the required return is the gross discount rate to be
used in computing the total return of a security. However, a percentage of the
required return is earned by the growth rate of the dividend; only the amount of
the required return that represents growth above the dividend growth rate (i.e.,
capital gain) needs to be represented as the net discount rate used in the equation.
Estimating dividend growth can be frustrating. In reality, neither earnings nor
dividends grow systematically and steadily. One year, earnings may grow at 24%
and dividends may grow at 15%; another year, earnings may decline and
dividends may remain constant. Every investor must derive some method of
smoothing out dividend growth so that a compound annual rate can be
determined.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 15 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
DDM Alternatives
A popular alternative to using dividends in the model is to use cash flow,
especially when a company does not pay dividends. Details of this approach will
not be discussed here. Different assumptions may have to be made regarding the
appropriate required return rate and the growth rate of cash flow.
A second approach to determining the intrinsic value of a stock is to use the P/E
ratio. This is one of the most popular valuation methods that investors use. If a
company has positive earnings but pays no dividends, then this method must be
used because the dividend discount model can be used only when a company
pays dividends (assuming that the cash flow model is not used).
When using the P/E ratio approach, two benchmarks are considered—the industry
P/E ratio and the market P/E ratio. The ratio for the company in question is
computed and compared against both of these benchmarks. If the company ratio
is lower than either or both benchmarks, then the stock may be undervalued. If
the company ratio is higher than either or both, then the stock may be overvalued.
A third approach is the price-to-sales ratio (PSR). Like the P/E ratio, this method
can be used with any company; it is especially useful when a company pays no
dividends and has no earnings. To use the ratio, net sales are divided by the
number of shares outstanding to determine the sales per share. That number is
then divided into the price per share to determine the PSR. In general, stocks with
PSRs of less than 1.0 are undervalued; those with PSRs that are greater than 3.0
may be overvalued.
Another popular approach to valuation is the growth-adjusted P/E ratio, known
as the PEG (PE/growth) ratio. The PEG ratio is calculated by dividing the P/E
ratio by the earnings growth rate (EGR). The PEG ratio allows investors to
compare companies with different growth expectations. In other words, in an
industry where the average P/E ratio is 18, the P/E ratio of a stock with an
expected earnings growth rate of 26% should be higher than the P/E ratio of a
stock with an expected earnings growth rate of 12%.
16 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Using the PEG ratio is more complex than using the other ratios. A general rule
is that a PEG ratio of less than 1.0 may identify an undervalued company.
However, one cannot assume that a company’s P/E ratio is too low simply
because the company’s PEG ratio is lower than the S&P 500 PEG ratio. For
example, the S&P 500 PEG ratio was approximately 1.5 in late 2006. If a growth
company has an estimated earnings growth rate of 30%, one might be tempted to
say that it is undervalued if its P/E ratio is less than 45 (1.5 × 30). The PEG ratio
is not a directly proportional relationship. The PEG ratio actually decreases as the
earnings-per-share growth rate increases.
Finally, an approach that has a rich historical basis is the price-to-book (P/B)
ratio. To calculate book value per share, the shareholders’ equity section of the
balance sheet is divided by the number of shares outstanding. The stock’s price
per share is divided by the book value per share to obtain the P/B ratio. A P/B
ratio of less than 1.0 was a common benchmark for identifying possibly
undervalued companies.
The strong stock market performance of the late 1980s and 1990s pushed the
average P/B ratio of the S&P 500 average to more than 5.0. By 1999, very few
stocks had P/B ratios near 1.0, other than those of companies that were near
bankruptcy. As a consequence, this method had fallen into disuse by all except
diehard Graham and Dodd value investors (Cottle, Murray, and Block 1988). In
late 2006, however, after the 2000–2002 correction and subsequent recovery,
the S&P 500 P/B ratio was at about 3.0.
No single equity valuation method should be used alone. Even if a company has
positive earnings and pays dividends, an investor should calculate the intrinsic
value using most or all of the previously listed methods. At times, each method
will lead you to the same conclusion; at other times, the methods may leave you
in limbo, wondering if your analysis is flawed. In the latter case, you may decide
that no rational decision can be made at the moment.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 17 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Reading the next part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–3 Calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using various stock valuation
techniques or calculate the expected return of a stock.
There are basically three different types of dividend growth valuation models that
you should be familiar with:
1. the zero growth or dividend in perpetuity,
2. the constant dividend growth model, and
3. the non-constant dividend growth model.
The Zero Growth Model The zero growth model is also known as the dividend in perpetuity model. This is
commonly used to evaluate stocks whose dividend is fixed and will never grow.
This situation is most frequently encountered with preferred stocks that have a
fixed dividend rate with no maturity date. This formula breaks down to a very
simple form, where we just take the cash flow (the annual dividend amount) and
divide it by the required return:
r
DV 0=
To illustrate this method we will look at a preferred stock trading on the NYSE:
Xcel Energy Series A $3.60 preferred stock. The stock has a stated dividend rate
of $3.60. This is a fixed rate and will not grow in the future. An investor who
required a return of 7% on his investment would use this for his “r” (required
return). The formula would yield the following valuation:
435107
603.
.
. =
The preferred stock is quoted at $74.50 to currently yield 4.83%. Based on the
fair value of $51.43 for a required return of 7%, one can see that this preferred
18 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
stock is overpriced. Another even easier way to assess valuation on a preferred
stock would be to simply look at the yield. If the yield is less than your required
return, it would be considered overvalued. A quick look at the yield on Xcel
Energy Series A preferred confirms this. The yield is 4.83%, which is lower than
the required return of 7%, making the stock overvalued at $74.50. The stock
would have to trade at $51.43 or below for the yield to equal or exceed the
required return of 7%.
There is a great amount of interest rate risk with preferred stocks, since there is
no stated maturity. For example, using the same Xcel preferred, let’s say interest
rates increase from 7% to 8%. To find the intrinsic value:
4508
603$
.
. =
The intrinsic value of the preferred when interest rates were 7% was $51.53.
With interest rates a point higher at 8% the intrinsic value drops to $45.00, a
decrease of $6.53 or 12.7%. Investors sometimes think of preferred stocks as
“safe,” but as can be seen by this 1% change in interest rates preferred stocks do
have quite a bit of interest rate risk.
Constant Growth DDM
The second type of dividend growth valuation is the constant growth dividend
discount model, which is used to calculate the intrinsic value of dividend paying
stock. It is essentially an extension of the zero growth model already covered.
The difference is that we now have a cash flow (annual dividend) that is growing
over time rather than a cash flow (annual dividend) that stays the same. To take
into account this growth, we introduce a growth rate into the formula, so
r
DV 0=
becomes:
gr
DV
−= 1
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 19 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
The D1 in the numerator stands for “D(1 + g)”—in other words we are now
going to increase the dividend by the amount we anticipate it will grow each year
by taking the annual dividend and multiplying by 1 plus the growth rate. Note: On the denominator, we are going to subtract the growth rate from the required
return rather than just using the required return as we did in the zero growth
model.
With the constant growth dividend discount model, the assumption made is that the dividends will continue to grow at the same rate in perpetuity.
Calculation
Calculating the intrinsic value of a stock using the constant growth DDM
requires three inputs:
1. current-year dividends
2. estimated growth rate of dividends
3. required return
Current-year dividends are the easy part. Calculating the estimated growth rate of
dividends is more difficult. If we assume that the payout ratio will remain
constant (an important assumption in the DDM), then we can use the estimated
growth rate of earnings as the estimated growth rate of dividends.
20 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
gr
D
gr
)g(DV
−=
−+= 10 1
where
V = Intrinsic value of the stock
D0 = Current-year dividend
r = Required return
g = Dividend growth rate
To thoroughly understand the formula and its application, you should experiment
with different assumptions of growth rate and required return to see what impact
they have on the final result for V.
The dividend growth rate is a function of the company’s return on equity (ROE)
and the retention rate of earnings (rr), which is 1 minus the dividend payout ratio.
Specifically, g = ROE × rr. It makes sense that, everything else held constant, the
higher the ROE, the faster dividends can grow. Likewise, the more earnings
retained to generate additional growth, the faster dividends can grow in the
future. This will be covered further in the next module on security analysis.
For the preceding equation to work, the required return must exceed the dividend
growth rate. If that is not the case, a different valuation method must be used.
Example. Thor Industries pays an annual dividend $2.00 per share, and its
dividends are expected to grow at 6% annually. If your required return is 10%
then what is the intrinsic value of Thor?
0610061002
..).(.
V−
=
Note that we use the decimal form, not a whole number, for the growth rate, so
6% is .06. Also note that since we are using the decimal form for the growth rate,
we must also do so for the required return, so this is expressed as .10.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 21 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
0610061002
..).(.
V−
= = 04122
..
= $53.00
This then tells us that the intrinsic value of Thor Industries is $53.00, meaning if
it is priced in the marketplace at $53 or lower we would purchase it. If it is
trading above $53 a share we would not purchase it because it would be
overvalued, and we would be paying too much for it.
Fair Market Value Relative Value Action
Less than $53 Undervalued Buy
$53 Fairly valued Buy
Greater than $53 Overvalued Do not buy, or sell short
Expected Return
While we are looking at the constant growth DDM, let’s take a look at another
formula, the expected return formula:
gP
Dr
1 +=
The formula for the expected return of a security is derived from the formula for
computing a security’s intrinsic value. The distinction between the two formulas
is that in the intrinsic value formula, the objective is to compute the price at
which the security should sell; in the expected return formula, the security’s
current price is one of the known factors, and the objective is to determine the
total return that the security should achieve given its current price and its
expected dividend growth (current income) and market value growth
(appreciation). The dividend growth and the appreciation are assumed to be at the
same rate.
The intrinsic value is the price you would pay to earn the required return.
Overvalued securities lie below the capital market line (their prices are too high
22 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
to earn the required return) and undervalued securities lie above the capital
market line (their prices are so low that you will earn more than the required
return rate).
The required return is often confused with the expected return. In fact, the term
expected return is used by some analysts when what they really mean is required
return. Rather than trying to change people’s habits, which is impossible, you
will have to develop an ear for knowing when someone really means required
return instead of expected return.
Required return is the return required by an investor to induce him or her to part
with the dollars that will be required to invest in any particular security. If an
investor cannot feel some degree of comfort that a security’s required return can
be achieved, then the investor should not invest in the security. Required return
can be computed using the capital asset pricing model formula
ifmfi rrrr β)( −+= .
Expected return is the return that can be expected given the current price of a
security and the security’s expected growth (the “g” in the DDM). If the security
is undervalued using the DDM, then the expected return, as computed, will
exceed the required return; if the security is overvalued using the DDM, then the
expected return will be less than the required return.
Returning to our Thor Industries example, let’s see what happens using three
different market prices, $50, $53, and $56 in the formula:
%...).(.
r 2410102400650
061002==+=
%..).(.
r 101000653
061002==+=
%...).(.
r 799097900656
061002==+=
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 23 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Note that when the stock is priced at $53 (the intrinsic value we came up with
earlier) the expected return is 10%, which matches our required return of 10%.
When the stock is undervalued (at $50) note that the expected return (10.24%) is
now greater than our required return. When the stock is overvalued (at $56) the
expected return (9.79%) is now less than our required return.
It is important to note the relationships here. If we calculate the intrinsic value of
a stock using the DDM, and know that this stock is fairly valued (trading at
intrinsic value), then we know our expected return will match our required return.
Or, approached another way, if we were to do the expected return calculation
first and the expected return matched our required return, we would know that
the current market price of the stock is equal to its intrinsic value.
If we calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using the DDM, and know that the
stock is undervalued, then we know that our expected return is going to exceed
our required return. If we were to do the expected return calculation first and the
expected return was more than our required return, we would then know that the
stock is undervalued.
If we calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using the DDM, and know that the
stock is overvalued, then we know that our expected return is going to be less
than our required return. If we were to do the expected return calculation first and
the expected return was less than our required return, we would then know that
the stock is overvalued.
Let’s look at a hypothetical scenario.
Example—Intrinsic Value
Victor and Helga Leichtenstein want to begin investing in stocks. They believe
that 12% is a reasonable required rate of return. They are considering buying one
of the following two stocks, which have the following characteristics:
ABC Corp. Dividends are currently $2.25 annually and are expected to increase
by 5% annually; the current market price is $42.
24 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
XYZ Corp. Dividends are currently $1.80 annually and are expected to increase
by 6% annually; the current market price is $26.
Which stock should they purchase and why?
Stock ABC:
$33.75.05.12
(1.05)2.25V =
−=
10.63%.1063.0542
(1.05)2.25r ==+=
Stock XYZ:
$31.80.06.12
(1.06)1.80V =
−=
13.34%.1334.0626
1.80(1.06)r ==+=
Stock ABC has an intrinsic value of $33.75, but is trading in the marketplace at
$42. It is clearly overvalued and should not be purchased. Note also that the
expected return of 10.63% is lower than their required return of 12%.
Stock XYZ, however, has an intrinsic value of $31.80, but is trading in the
marketplace at just $26, so it is undervalued and should be purchased. Note also
that the expected return of 13.34% is greater than their required return of 12%.
If their required rate of return were to decrease from 12% to 11%, would you
make the same selection?
Stock ABC:
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 25 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
$39.37.05.11
(1.05)2.25V =
−=
10.63%.1063.0542
(1.05)2.25r ==+=
Stock XYZ:
$38.16.06.11
(1.06)1.80V =
−=
13.34%.1334.0626
(1.06)1.80r ==+=
Now stock XYZ is even more undervalued, and would remain the correct choice
for the Leichtensteins. As the required return goes down, the intrinsic value of
the stock will go up. Conversely, as the required return goes up, the intrinsic
value of a stock will go down.
The Non-Constant Growth Model
The third type of dividend growth model, the non-constant or multistage growth
model, has been tested on the CFP® Certification Examination in recent exams.
Since there is no formula for it on the exam formula sheet, you will have to
memorize the steps. The theory behind this model is that many companies in
their earlier growth stages will have dividend growth rates that are not
sustainable over long periods of time. At some point the growth rate will slow as
the company enters a more mature stage of growth.
Example. Let’s look at a hypothetical company that recently paid a dividend of
$0.35 per share for the year just completed. The company is expected to grow
this dividend at a rate of 20% for the next three years, after which the growth rate
is expected to level off at 8% for subsequent years. The required return is 12%.
What is the stock price today?
This problem can be broken down into three basic steps.
26 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Step One
What is the dollar amount of the dividend at the end of the first three years of
super normal growth?
Year 1 0.35 × 1.20 0.42
Year 2 0.42 × 1.20 0.504
Year 3 0.504 × 1.20 0.6048
You should take note of a common trap here. Make sure you don’t use the
dividend most recently paid as your dividend for Year 1. You must multiply by
the growth rate to get the dividend for Period D1.
Step Two
What is the value of the stock at the end of Year 3 based on the dividend at the
end of Year 3?
Use the constant growth formula for this step:
( )3316
0812
0816048.
..
.. =−
Make sure to realize that you are using the dividend at the end of Year 3 to
calculate the value for the stock at the end of Year 3.
Step Three
Use your calculator to solve for “NPV”—net present value, of an irregular cash
flow. The “NPV” key is the alternate function on the “PRC” key (found just
below the payment key) on the HP-10BII+. On the HP-12C the NPV key is the
alternate function on the “PV” key —“f, NPV.”
The cash flow key “CFj” on the HP-10BII+ is the second key below the “PV”
key. This is the key you will use for any cash flow entries.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 27 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
On the HP-12C there are two cash flow keys. The initial cash flow is always
entered as “CFo,” and any subsequent cash flows are always entered as “CFj.”
On the HP-12C the “CFo” key is the alternate function on the “PV” key (g, CFo),
and the “CFj” key is the alternate function on the “PMT” key (g, CFj).
The keystrokes are as follows:
HP-10BII+ HP-12C
12 I/YR 12 i
0 CFj 0 CFo
0.42 CFj 0.42 CFj
0.504 CFj 0.504 CFj
0.6048 + 16.33 = 16.9348
CFj .6048 + 16.33 = 16.9348
.CFj
SHIFT, NPV 12.83 f, NPV 12.83
Note that in Year 3 you combine the dividend for that year with the discounted
value of the stock at the end of Year 3 based on the constant growth formula, and
enter just this one number (in this case 16.9348). Do not enter them separately!
This sum is then discounted back to the present using the discount rate of 12%.
Another way to think of this is in terms of a time line:
28 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Here is another example of the non-constant growth dividend discount model:
Example. Robert Robertson III is interested in buying a stock that currently pays
a dividend of $0.60 cents per share annually. His required return on investments
is 9%. The dividend is expected to grow 15% annually for the next two years,
followed by an expected growth rate of 6% thereafter. What is the most that
Robert should pay for the stock?
Step 1: Find the amount of the dividend at the end of each of the two years
of non-constant growth:
0.79351.150.69
0.691.150.60
=×=×
Step 2: Find the value of the stock at the end of Year 2 based on the dividend
to be paid at the end of Year 3:
28.040.060.09
1.060.7935 =−
×
Step 3: Using the calculator, solve for the PV of unequal cash flows as
follows:
HP-10BII+ HP-12C
9 I/YR 9 i
0 CFj 0 CFo
0.69 CFj 0.69 CFj
0.7935 + 28.04 = 28.8335
CFj 0.7935 + 28.04 = 28.8835
CFj
SHIFT, NPV 24.90 SHIFT, NPV 24.90
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 29 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Reading the next part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–4 Evaluate the appropriateness of investment decisions based on stock
valuation models.
Valuation Exercise—Merck & Co.
To demonstrate the calculation of the intrinsic value of a stock, we will use 2009
financial data from Merck & Co. (as of 9/30/2009), drawn from the Morningstar
and Smart Money websites.
Calculating the intrinsic value of MRK using the constant growth DDM requires
three inputs:
1. current-year dividends of MRK
2. estimated growth rate of MRK’s dividends
3. required return for MRK
Current-year dividends are the easy part. The annual dividend reported was $1.52
per share.
Calculating the estimated growth rate of dividends is more difficult. If we assume
that the payout ratio will remain constant (an important assumption in the DDM),
then we can use the estimated growth rate of earnings as the estimated growth
rate of dividends. The data for MRK shows that earnings are expected to grow at
a 3.3% rate over the next five years according to SmartMoney. We will use a
required return for large-cap stocks (the asset class of which MRK is a member)
of 9.6%, which is the long-term return number for large-caps from Ibbotson.
Using these inputs for the equation, the computation of the intrinsic value of
MRK using the DDM is as follows:
30 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
$24.92.033.096
.033)(11.52
gr
g)(1DV 0 =
−+=
−+=
where V = Intrinsic value of the stock
D0 = Current-year dividend
r = Required return
g = Dividend growth rate
The intrinsic value of MRK is approximately $25 per share, based on the inputs
used. This compares with a recent market quote of $35, which would indicate
that the stock is approximately $10 overvalued. Note the importance of accurate
assumptions when using the formula. Let’s do the calculation assuming a 4.5%
earnings growth rate, which is Merck’s 5-year earnings growth rate according to
Morningstar:
$31.15.045.096
.045)(11.52
gr
g)(1DV 0 =
−+=
−+=
Or if we use the 10-year average earnings growth rate, which is 5.4%:
$38.15.054.096
.054)(11.52
gr
g)(1DV 0 =
−+=
−+=
So you can see that the formula is very sensitive to relatively small changes in
the input. With a growth rate of 4.5%, the intrinsic value comes out to be $31.15,
which is below the $35 market current price, meaning that the stock is
overvalued. However, if we use a growth rate of 5.4%, then the stock’s intrinsic
value is $38.15, which is above the current market price, meaning the stock is
undervalued.
To thoroughly understand the formula and its application, you should experiment
with different assumptions of growth rate and required return to see what impact
they have on the final result for V.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 31 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Using the same data for MRK, we can compute the expected return as follows for
the various growth rates:
3.3% growth rate:
7.79%.0779.03335
.033)(11.52g
P
g)(1Dr 0 ==++=++=
where
r = Expected return
D0 = Current-year dividend
P = Current price
g = Dividend growth rate
4.5% growth rate:
9.04%.0904.04535
.045)(11.52g
P
g)(1Dr 0 ==++=++=
5.4% growth rate:
9.98%0998%.05435
.054)(11.52g
P
g)(1Dr 0 ==++=++=
Remember that our required return is 9.6%, and note that only the last scenario,
using 5.4% as our estimated growth rate, gives us an expected return greater than
9.6%. This, of course, is also the only scenario we looked at where the stock
comes out to be undervalued. If a stock is undervalued, then the expected return
will be greater than the required return. If a stock is overvalued, then the
expected return will be less than the required return.
32 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
P/E Ratio
To compute the projected value of MRK using the P/E (price to earnings) ratio, the input factors are the current price of the stock and the current and projected earnings of the company. The P/E ratios of the industry and of the market are also required.
The projected 2009 annual earnings (from SmartMoney) for Merck were $3.27, so to arrive at a P/E ratio we simply take the current price of $35 per share and divide by $3.27.
10.7$3.27
$35 =
When this analysis was done the P/E ratio for the market was approximately 20.9, and the P/E ratio for the drug industry was approximately 11.3.
For our P/E ratio calculation above, we used estimated 2009 earnings of $3.27 per share, and we should also look at the earnings estimate for 2010, which is $3.46 per share. The value of MRK using P/E multiples is shown in Table 1. The earnings per share are multiplied by the P/E ratios to obtain the valuation estimates.
Table 1: Valuation Based on P/E Ratios
Factor
Based on 2009 Projected Earnings $3.27
Based on 2010 Projected Earnings $3.46
MRK P/E 10.7 $35 $37.02
Industry P/E 11.3 $36.95 $39.10
Using industry and market P/E ratios, MRK has a projected value that is
somewhere between approximately $37 per share and $39 per share. The $37 is
close to both the current value of the stock, and the value computed using the
DDM with 4.5% and 5.4% growth rates.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 33 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
The historical 5-year P/E range for Merck is from 6.30 to 41.40, with an average
P/E of 19.3. Merck’s current P/E at 10.7 is below the historic average, which
means there is a chance for an increase in price if there is an increase in the P/E
ratio.
PSR
The total revenues of MRK for the trailing 12-month (ttm) period ending
9/30/2009 were approximately $17.9 billion; total shares outstanding were 2.1
billion. Dividing revenue by shares gives us sales of $8.52 per share. The current
market price of the stock is approximately $35 per share. Therefore, the PSR for
MRK is calculated as follows:
4.1$8.52
$35 =
The industry average for price to sales according to Morningstar is 2.7. (This is
the average PSR for Merck, Abbott Labs, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson &
Johnson, Eli Lilly, and Pfizer.) This indicates that Merck has a high price to sales
ratio relative to the industry, which leans to it being overvalued based just on this
ratio. The PSR for the general market is 1.2.
PEG Ratio
The PEG ratio is calculated by taking the P/E ratio and dividing it by the earnings
growth rate. Generally, the lower the PEG ratio, the more likely it is that a stock
may be undervalued; however, as with any one ratio or measurement, this
number alone will not tell the entire story.
We will look at PEG ratios based on SmartMoney growth estimates as of
11/19/2009:
34 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Table 2: PEG Ratio
Forward P/E Ratio
Next 5 Years Growth Rate
Current Year PEG Ratio
MRK 10.8 3.3% 3.3
Drug industry 11.3 15.7% 0.7 Source: Morningstar
Table 2 shows us a couple of things. First, the P/E ratio of Merck is essentially
the same as the P/E ratio of the drug industry in general. However, drug stocks in
general have higher earnings growth rates than Merck. So this means that the
PEG ratio for the drug industry is lower than the PEG ratio for Merck, suggesting
that Merck may be overvalued relative to the overall drug industry. There may
better values found in other drug stocks, but again remember that this is just one
ratio.
P/B Ratio
The book value of a company is the amount reported as shareholders’ equity in
the balance sheet of the corporation. Most reporting services do the computation
on a per share basis so that investors do not have to search through financial
statements to find book value in dollars and make the conversion themselves.
The Morningstar website shows a book value for MRK of $7.26 per share. With
the current market price of MRK’s stock is approximately $35 per share the P/B
ratio is computed as follows:
4.8$7.26
$35 =
The price to book ratio average for the drug industry is 3.8. This analysis would
indicate that the current ratio for Merck is higher than that for the industry
average. Traditionally, a P/B ratio closer to 1.0 would indicate an undervalued
stock to a strict value investor. In recent years, however, P/B ratios have risen far
above 1.0, so an undervalued security would be one with a ratio less than the
market ratio or the industry ratio.
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 35 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Summary
The valuation measures computed above are summarized in Table 3.
Table 3: Valuation Summary
Valuation Method Computed Value
DDM $25–$38
P/E projected 2009 $35–$37
P/E projected 2010 $37–$39
PSR 4.1
PEG ratio 3.3
P/B 4.8
During 2009 MRK traded between $20.05 and $38.10 per share. An investor who
is considering purchasing MRK stock must make a decision about the stock’s
appreciation potential, given the current price. Different analytical tools can lead
an investor to different conclusions. Let’s look at the factors we considered in our
decision-making process regarding a purchase of MRK stock.
DDM. The DDM shows that MRK stock is currently overvalued by up to
$10 per share. If the more favorable growth rate of 5.4% is used, then the
stock is undervalued by about $3 a share. The denominator is the key to
DDM valuation analysis. The discount rate used for required return was
9.6%. It could be less, or it could be more. Even a scientific approximation of
the appropriate required return rate could be questioned by another equally
qualified analyst. In our analysis we used different dividend growth rates.
If the spread between r and g is smaller than computed, then the intrinsic
value is higher than the figure computed; if the spread is larger, then the
intrinsic value is lower than the figure computed.
P/E ratio. The P/E ratio analysis shows that Merck is trading at a P/E lower
than the industry average for all drug stocks. Merck is also trading at a lower
P/E than its 5-year average. This would indicate that room exists for a P/E
36 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
multiple expansion that would increase the price of the stock. The company’s
financial statements should be analyzed in greater detail to determine whether
this conclusion is justified.
PSR. In the current market environment, the PSR of MRK appears high,
coming in at 4.1 compared with an industry average of 2.7. The PSR analysis
alone would indicate an overvalued stock with limited upside potential.
PEG ratio. The PEG ratio shows a fairly substantial premium when
compared to the PEG ratio for the industry. The PEG ratio does seem to
confirm the conclusion from the other analysis that the stock may be
overvalued.
P/B ratio. This analysis also indicates that MRK may be overvalued, selling
at a P/B ratio of 4.8 compared with an industry average of 3.8. P/B ratios are
not as significant to security analysts as they have been in years past, so the
P/B ratio should be given the least weight in the analysis.
Overall Conclusion
One can see that different methods of analysis will lead to different conclusions
regarding the fair value of a stock. It is important not only to analyze a
company’s current fundamentals, but that analysis should be compared with the
historical norms for the company, with the industry averages, and with the
market as a whole.
The use of the DDM, and the few ratios we have looked at, is just a start when it
comes to analyzing individual securities. There are many more ratios that can and
should be considered, such as liquidity and cash flow ratios, inventory turnover
ratios, profitability ratios, and return on equity, to name a few. There may also be
other fundamental information that is equally important, such as changes in
management, products, or competition. For example, Merck went through a
major acquisition in the fourth quarter of 2009 and acquired Schering-Plough— a
transaction that totals about $41 billion in cash and stock. Merck’s market
Chapter 2: Equity Valuation 37 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
capitalization prior to the acquisition was in the neighborhood of $70 billion, so
this will have a major impact on Merck.
Many individuals who are interested in analyzing securities obtain the CFA
Charter (Chartered Financial Analyst), which is offered through the CFA
Institute (ww.cfainstitute.org). The CFP certification is geared more toward
helping individuals with their financial planning needs, and not toward becoming
an expert on security analysis. For the CFP certification you just need to know
the very basics when it comes to ratio analysis.
In the next module we will take a look at Investment Policy Statements, and at
three very important ratios: Jensen (alpha), Sharpe, and Treynor.
38 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation
Reading the first part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–5 Explain the various components of the Investment Policy Statement
(IPS).
Investment Policy Statements (IPS)
ffective portfolio performance evaluation depends upon an appropriate
standard against which to evaluate investment decisions and
performance. Many such standards include relative performance against
an index, measured by returns on that index. There are also statistical measures
available that are discussed below: the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen (alpha)
indexes.
Absolute performance measures are also used, such as inflation plus some
percentage (e.g., inflation plus 5%).
Regardless of which of these absolute and relative performance measurement
approaches are used, performance against an investment policy statement should
be the first step in the evaluation process.
A well-drafted investment policy statement (IPS) reduces ambiguity and provides
guidance to any and all investment professionals needing to interact to implement
the IPS. If an IPS exists, a new relationship can be quickly established in the
event of an advisor change, providing clarity to the newly hired investment
professional. In addition, when investment recommendations are made, the
recommendations can be evaluated against the standards set in the IPS to
determine suitability.
E
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 39 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
According to Boone and Lubitz (Creating an Investment Policy Statement, FPA
Press), an IPS serves four basic purposes:
1. Setting objectives. This includes establishing and defining client expectations
concerning risk and return, and providing guidelines on how the assets are to
be invested.
2. Defining the asset allocation policy. This requires identifying various asset
classes that will be used to achieve the investor’s objectives, and determining
how best to allocate the assets to achieve a diversified portfolio.
3. Establishing management procedures. A guide needs to be put in place as
far as selecting and monitoring the investments, and making changes as
necessary. There also needs to be a way to evaluate the performance of
whoever is in charge of the investment process.
4. Determining communication procedures. A concise method of
communication needs to be in place so that all parties involved are aware of
the process and objectives, and responsibility must be assigned for
implementation.
Quoting Boone and Lubitz:
“For the typical investor, a lack of information, the absence of a systematic
approach, and emotional and behavioral factors often lead to irrational or
inappropriate investment decision. The creation and use of an IPS helps
clients and advisors make prudent, rational decisions about their investments.
This process will generally help both the investor and the advisor become
better and more successful in their respective roles.”
There are no set IPS statement standards, but the following minimum content
areas would result in a comprehensive and relatively complete IPS. A properly
crafted IPS will keep both the client and the advisor on track, and minimize any
disagreements or confusion.
Return requirement. This might include absolute or relative dollar or
percentage returns on a before-tax or after-tax basis. Also included might be
the requirement to provide the specified return on an inflation-adjusted basis.
40 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Risk tolerance. At a minimum, this should state if the portfolio volatility is to
be low, below average, average, above average, or high. There are two major
areas to address with risk tolerance: (1) the ability to take risk, and (2) the
willingness to take risk. They are not the same thing. Ability has to do with
resources and circumstances. Someone in good health, properly insured, with
adequate savings, and $5 million in investments would most likely have a
high ability to take risk. However, this same individual may not like to see
his account balances move much, and may have a very low willingness to
take risk. Or, based on his return objective, he may not need to take much
risk to achieve his objective. Other statements reflecting risk tolerance issues
also can be addressed. If the risk level is to decline in several years due to an
expected change in circumstances—such as retirement—statements to that
effect should be included. One caveat here is that the risk tolerance objective
should be consistent with the return requirement. For example, if the return
requirement needed to meet the client’s goal is 10%, but they have a
conservative risk tolerance, something has to give. Either they are going to
have to take on more risk, lower their return requirement (thus downsizing
their goals), or a combination of the two.
Liquidity. Any liquidity constraints, such as an emergency fund, a fund for a
vacation or car purchase, or an amount needed within the next three to five
years to fund an anticipated cash expenditure, should be included here.
Generally, many advisors do not invest assets in the stock market that will be
needed within the next five years.
Time horizon. Short, intermediate, or long-term horizons should be indicated
for the achievement of investment goals. All three may be represented due to
the existence of short-, intermediate-, and long-term goals. For example, an
individual may have a personal short-term time horizon for education cost,
and then have a long-term time horizon for retirement. A long-term time
horizon may also be applicable to certain assets that are expected to be gifted
or willed to family members or charities.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 41 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Laws and regulations. Individuals have few laws and regulations with which
to be concerned. If an IPS is developed for a retirement plan or endowment,
then regulatory issues may be more complex—such as compliance with
ERISA.
Taxes. For individuals, the objective generally is to minimize the income tax
consequences of all investment transactions. Estate taxes may be an issue for
elderly clients. For retirement plans and IRAs, taxes generally are not an
issue, at least until required distributions must be made.
Unique preferences and circumstances. This refers to things the client
brings up as issues. Included may be statements about outside income that
may be received, such as royalties; restrictions on security transactions
applicable to insiders; trusts that may provide current or future income or
assets; prospective inheritances, especially if expected soon; and concerns
about any other issues, such as inflation and depression.
Permitted and excluded investments. All clients have some favorite types of
investments and some investments with which they may have had some
negative experiences over their investing lives. If the client wants to include
or exclude certain of these investment asset classes or types, they should be
listed here.
Constructing an IPS
A properly constructed IPS should be designed for that particular client—a
“cookie-cutter” or “one-size-fits-all” approach will not work well. One test of a
well-written IPS is whether the client could have remained committed to the
parameters of the IPS based on what the capital markets have done over the past
decades. Given the dramatic decline and volatility of the markets in 2008 and
2009, we may well see a different appreciation of what “risk” means going
forward.
42 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Here is a template of how an IPS could be constructed:
Investment Policy Statement for John Doe
I. Investor Circumstances
II. Investment Objectives
a. General
b. Portfolio Return Objective
c. Rationale and Justification
III. Risk Tolerance
a. Ability to take risk
b. Willingness to take risk
c. Risk Tolerance Objective
IV. Client Liquidity Needs
a. Rationale and Justification
V. Time Horizon
a. Time Horizon Objective
b. Rationale and Justification
VI. Income Tax Constraints
VII. Other Unique Needs and Circumstances
VIII. Asset Allocation
For more information on investment policy statements and how to construct
them, you can refer to Creating an Investment Policy Statement by Boone and
Lubitz (FPA Press) or visit www.ipsadvisorpro.com.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 43 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
SWOT Analysis
“SWOT” stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats and helps
both the advisor and the client understand the big picture. When an advisor does
a SWOT analysis he or she develops an understanding of how both the internal
and external environments impact the client. Strengths and weaknesses reflect the
internal environment unique to the client, such as income, net worth, too much
debt, deficient insurance, etc. These are areas over which the client has varying
amounts of control. The opportunities and threats, on the other hand, reflect the
external environment, over which the client has no control. These include such
things as current interest rates, rate of inflation, or the cost of education and
retirement. A well-thought-out SWOT analysis helps to focus the client on their
current situation as well as what they are up against. This analysis can also be
helpful in constructing a well-designed IPS, since several of the areas that will
come up in this analysis also are relevant to an IPS, such as risk and return, and
market expectations.
Following is an example of what a SWOT analysis might look like for a fictional
couple, Zack and Zoe Jones:
Strengths:
Zack has a steady job in a recession-proof industry that provides over
$70,000 a year in income.
Zoe works part-time and supplements the household income while doing
work she enjoys.
Zack and Zoe’s net worth is reasonable for their age.
Both are healthy and have adequate health insurance.
44 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Weaknesses:
Zack is growing restless in his job and wants to pursue a new career, which
would lower their household income.
Too much debt relative to their net worth.
Unrealistic goals for the amount of saving and investing.
Investments are inappropriate and do not match their risk tolerance.
Neither Zack nor Zoe have long-term disability.
Estate planning is inadequate.
Opportunities:
Interest rates are historically low making borrowing, such as for a home,
more affordable.
Decline in stocks increases the chances for substantial appreciation going
forward, and it may be a good time to dollar cost average into the market.
Lower housing prices makes purchasing an affordable home more likely.
Threats:
Unemployment is high, and this may impact raises and/or employment.
Cost of college continues to rise, presenting challenges for sending Zack Jr.
to his dad’s alma mater.
Inflation may be increasing in the coming years.
One can see the strategic thinking that needs to go into a SWOT analysis would
also be helpful in constructing an IPS.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 45 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Reading the next part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–6 Explain the characteristics, uses, and limitations of stock
performance measurement indexes.
Security and Portfolio Performance Evaluation
The required return tells an investor the return that a security, or a portfolio,
should attain, given the risk level of the security or portfolio. Security
performance evaluation compares the actual return of the security or portfolio to
the required return or to a benchmark return.
Four performance index measurement tools are discussed in this chapter. The
Jensen index, also known as alpha, is used to compare the actual return to the
required return. Two other indexes, the Sharpe index and the Treynor index, are
used to compare the stock or mutual fund’s excess return with a benchmark index
or with another similar stock or mutual fund. The Sharpe index, in particular, is
very useful for comparing one security’s risk-adjusted return with that of another
security or with a benchmark return. The information ratio is similar to the
Sharpe index, but is focused on the manager’s excess return over the benchmark
return relative to the tracking error (the standard deviation of the difference
between the returns on the portfolio and the returns on the benchmark).
Alpha and Sharpe index figures are found on Morningstar Mutual Funds reports;
neither the Treynor index nor the information ratio is shown there. The Treynor
index is more limited in its use because beta is used in its calculation. Generally,
to use the Treynor index, the security or portfolio being analyzed must be part of
a diversified portfolio. If we could be certain that all investors would have
portfolios that resemble the S&P 500 index, then the beta used could be the
fund’s beta with respect to the S&P 500 index. However, most investors have
portfolios of mutual funds that differ sharply from the S&P 500 index. Because it
is impossible to know whether each owner of a particular fund has a truly
46 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
diversified portfolio or whether the fund is the only fund the investor owns,
showing a Treynor index for a fund might be misleading.
The information ratio measures active return over active risk. Active return is in
the numerator and active risk is in the denominator. An active manager takes
active risk by deviating from the benchmark holdings, making bets different from
the benchmark bets. In doing so, the manager’s risk level will change and the
manager’s return will change. If the risk level is higher than the benchmark risk
level, then it is hoped that the manager’s different-from-benchmark bets will
have a higher return than the benchmark. If so, then the information is likely to
be positive. If the manager’s risk level rose, but the bets didn’t pay off with
higher-than-benchmark returns, then the information ratio is likely to be negative.
Some of the same problems exist with respect to alpha. Beta is used in the
equation for required return. Required return is subtracted from a security’s
actual return to compute alpha. The use of beta presumes that the security or
portfolio is part of a diversified portfolio. Morningstar compensates for this
potential problem in its reports by reporting alpha with respect to the S&P 500
(or EAFE) index and then with respect to the best-fit index (the index with which
the fund in question has the highest R2). This gives investors the option to
consider how well the fund does with respect to the S&P 500 (if the fund is part
of a diversified portfolio that tracks well with the S&P 500 index) or with respect
to the industry with which the fund is most correlated.
The Sharpe index uses standard deviation, or total risk, in its denominator. It
assumes that the portfolio is not diversified. Therefore, the problem with respect
to beta does not exist with respect to the Sharpe index. Any security can be
directly compared with another security using the Sharpe index. However, this
index can also be confusing to investors. For example, if the large-cap mutual
fund sector has been the “hot” performer over the recent past and the emerging
markets sector has been the “dog,” then investors should expect that many large-
cap funds will have high Sharpe indexes and many emerging markets funds will
have low Sharpe indexes. In other words, high Sharpe indexes will appear in
asset classes that have performed well in the recent past. Such Sharpe indexes do
not predict that those same asset classes will also perform well in the future.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 47 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Comparing funds with each other using the Sharpe index is best confined to
comparisons of funds within a distinct asset class. An investor may want to
construct a diversified portfolio consisting of all major asset classes, including
emerging markets assets. If a decision were made solely on Sharpe ratios across
all asset classes, then no emerging markets funds would be likely to be chosen.
If, however, emerging markets funds were compared with each other, then an
emerging markets fund with a relatively high Sharpe index could be selected to
add to the existing portfolio.
Performance Measurement Comparisons
Formula
p
fpp σ
rr S
−=
p
fpp β
rrT
−=
[ ])βrr(r
ra
fmf
p
−+
−= A
BP
σRR
IR−=
Measures Variability Volatility Volatility Variability
Uses Std deviation
Beta Beta Tracking error
Portfolio well diversified
Does not assume
Does assume Does assume N/A
How much it outperformed Market
Does not indicate
Does not indicate
Does indicate N/A
Compares One Mgr to another
Yes Yes Yes No
Computes Relative value
Relative value Absolute value (alpha)
Relative value
Reading the next part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–7 Calculate one or more stock performance measurement indexes for
given portfolio returns and risk.
Risk/Return
Refer to the investment risk/return relationships shown in Figure 1, which
follows.
48 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Figure 1: Investment Risk/Return Relationships
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 49 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
The title of each formula identified in Figure 1 is referenced by number to the set of formulas that follows.
(1) COV jijiji σσρ= (7) ifmfi )rr(rr β−+=
(2) jiCOVjWi2W jjW iiW 2222
p +σ+σ=σ (8) gr
DV
1
−=
(3) ji
ijij
COV R
σ×σ= (9)
p
fpp
rrT
β−
=
(4) 1 n
)r (r
2n
−
−=σ
(10) ])rr(r[ra fmfp β−+−=
(5) p
fpp
rr S
σ−
= (11) i
i
i
i
meanS
orx
CV −
σ=
(6) imm
i RSS
×=β or m
iimi σ
σρ=β
Here is the section of Figure 1 that deals with beta, and the formulas that rely on beta.
50 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
The Treynor and Jensen indexes are shown to be dependent on beta; if beta cannot
be relied upon because of a low R2 with a market index, then any of the
computations that include beta in the calculation are suspect and need further
investigation by the investor. Therefore, the Treynor and Jensen (alpha) indexes
may not be the most reliable indicators of portfolio performance.
It should also be noted in Figure 1 that the CAPM formula, which is used to
compute required return, is dependent on beta. If beta is not dependable, then the
required return computed using the CAPM formula may not reflect reality.
Likewise, when the required return, as computed using CAPM, is used in the
DDM, the computed intrinsic value may not be valid if the required return is not
valid.
The consequences of using beta improperly have caused many analysts,
investors, and academics to question the utility of relying on beta as a valid
measure of investment risk. Despite these concerns, beta continues to be used
extensively in investment theory.
Note that the Sharpe index, as shown in Figure 1, is not dependent on beta.
Therefore, the Sharpe index can be used in most circumstances
Jensen Index (alpha)
Alpha is determined as follows:
])rr(r[ra fmfp β−+−=
Note that all that is happening with alpha is that you are taking the return of the
portfolio and subtracting CAPM (your required return) from it! The formula in
the brackets ])rr(r[ fmf β−+ is the Capital Asset Pricing Model we have already
covered, and it tells us the amount of return we should achieve given the amount
of risk taken. Beta is the risk measurement we are using, and as beta increases
our required return will increase, or as beta decreases our required return will
decrease. We then subtract that required return from the portfolio return to
calculate alpha. Analysts like to use alpha because it is an absolute
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 51 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
measurement—it is telling you the percentage amount that a portfolio manager
has either overperformed or underperformed the market based on the amount of
risk taken.
Example. Return of the mutual fund is 8% with a beta of 0.84. The risk-free rate
is 5%, and the return of the market is 8%. What is the alpha of the mutual fund?
( )[ ]845858 .a −+−=
( )[ ]84358 .a +−=
[ ]52258 .a +−=
5278 .a −=
480.a +=
In this case the portfolio manager has obtained a return greater than that required
given the amount of risk that was taken (positive alpha). When comparing
managers with each other you are looking for positive alphas, and the higher the
better. Remember that alpha is an “absolute” measure. Sharpe and Treynor,
which we will cover next, are “relative” measures, and they are used for
comparative purposes.
Investment professionals are quite conversant with the term “alpha.” It is one of
the most widely used measures of investment performance because investors
believe that it measures the value added by an active portfolio manager. A
positive alpha indicates performance better than anticipated for the risk the
manager has taken; a negative alpha indicates performance worse than
anticipated for the risk the manager has taken; and an alpha of zero indicates
performance as anticipated for the risk the manager has taken. Remember that
CAPM is telling you the amount of return you should achieve for the amount of
risk taken (as measured by beta). If you achieve a higher return than required by
CAPM, you will have a positive alpha. If you do not achieve the return required
by CAPM, you will have a negative alpha.
Morningstar Mutual Funds reports alpha in two columns. In the first column, the
alpha with respect to the S&P 500 or EAFE index is listed; in the second column,
52 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
the alpha with respect to the best-fit index is listed. Morningstar uses an R2 of
70% (correlation coefficient of approximately +.84) as the point at which it
believes the beta starts becoming less reliable. Remember that beta is a measure
of systematic risk, so the higher the R2 the more accurate beta becomes. For
testing purposes you are looking for R2 s of 70 or higher in order for beta to be
considered reliable.
Here are three international funds:
American Funds
EuroPacific A First Eagle Overseas A
Vanguard Intl Value
Alpha 3.6 2.8 1.8
Beta 0.92 0.59 1.01
R-squared with EAFE index 96 92 98
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2009
Note that all three of these funds have high correlations (R-squareds) with the
same benchmark, the EAFE. Since these R-squareds are higher than 70 we can
use beta, and this is important since beta is used in the formula for alpha.
If you had narrowed your search down to these three funds, which would you
choose based on these performance measurements? Answer: American Funds
EuroPacific A, since it has the highest alpha. The alpha of 3.6 means that the
fund manager(s) earned a return 3.6% greater than that required based on the
amount of risk taken.
Sharpe Index
The Sharpe index is determined as follows:
p
fpp
rr S
σ−
=
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 53 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
The standard deviation for a fund can be found in a Morningstar report. Note that
all that is happening is that you are taking any excess return over the risk-free
rate (Rp – Rf), and then dividing by standard deviation. Unlike alpha which is an
absolute value, Sharpe is used for comparative purposes—it is a relative measure.
Example. Return of the mutual fund is 9% with a standard deviation of 12%, and
the current risk-free rate is 5%. What is the Sharpe ratio?
33012
.5 - 9
S ==
You would then compare this Sharpe ratio with the Sharpe ratio of other funds
you may be considering, and you would choose the one with the highest number.
When calculating Sharpe (and Treynor), using decimal representations will also
work:
33012
..
.05 - .09 S ==
Let’s take a look at the same three international funds we covered with alpha, and
add the Sharpe ratio:
American Funds
EuroPacific A First Eagle Overseas A
Vanguard Intl Value
Sharpe –0.03 0.01 –0.12
Alpha 3.6 2.8 1.8
Beta 0.92 0.59 1.01
R-squared w/EAFE index 96 92 98
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2009
Notice that the Sharpe ratios are very close to each other, and in this case the
First Eagle Overseas A has a slight edge. Now if the R-squareds were less than
70, meaning beta and subsequently alpha are questionable numbers, then we
would use Sharpe. However, since we have high R-squareds in this scenario, you
54 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
could and should use alpha to determine which fund to purchase. These numbers
will of course change over time, and should be monitored.
Let’s take a look at another example, this time with some gold funds:
Fidelity Select Gold
First Eagle Gold A
Van Eck Intl Inv Gold A
Sharpe 0.70 0.69 0.52
Alpha 16.5 12.5 5.74
Beta 7.67 8.65 17.76
R-squared with EAFE index 1 1 4
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2008
Note the high betas and alphas, but are they meaningful? No, because there is
essentially no correlation between these funds and the EAFE index it is being
compared to. An R-squared of 1 means that there is just 1% of systematic risk—
with the remaining 99% then being unsystematic risk. Another way to look at it
is that 1% of the price movement of these two funds is explained by the EAFE
index, and the other 99% is not. Remember that beta is a measure of systematic
risk, since it is telling you how volatile an investment is compared to a
benchmark. In order for beta to be considered a good number there has to be a
high enough correlation between the investment and the benchmark it is being
compared to. That is why you want an R-squared of 70 or higher in order to use
beta or any formulas that use beta. In this scenario, our R-squareds are much too
low and both beta and alpha (which uses beta) are meaningless. This leaves us
with the Sharpe ratio, and we can use Sharpe since it uses standard deviation.
Standard deviation is a measure of total risk, both systematic and unsystematic.
You should choose the fund with the highest Sharpe ratio, which is the Fidelity
Select Gold fund.
Now let’s take the same three funds, but now use the AMEX Gold Miners Index
as our benchmark rather than the EAFE:
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 55 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Fidelity Select Gold
First Eagle Gold A
Van Eck Intl Inv Gold A
Sharpe 0.70 0.69 0.52
Alpha 6.9 5.6 9.95
Beta 0.93 0.81 1.01
R-squared with AMEX Gold Miners index
95 96 97
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2008
Notice the substantial change in the alpha and beta numbers. Since we now have
a high correlation (high R-squareds) between the funds and the benchmark, we
can now use beta and formulas that use beta. All three funds have high positive
alphas, and based on what is presented here you should choose the Van Eck gold
fund, which has the highest alpha.
Treynor Index
The Treynor index is determined as follows:
p
fpp
rrT
β−
=
Note that the Treynor index is very similar to Sharpe. The numerator is the same:
calculating any return over the risk-free rate (Rp – Rf). The difference is in the
denominator, which is now beta rather than standard deviation. Treynor is not
provided by Morningstar.
Example. Return of the mutual fund is 12%, with a beta of .90, and the current
risk-free rate is 5%. What is the Treynor ratio?
=−=900
512
.T 7.78
56 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Or expressed in decimal form:
=−=900
0512
.
..T .0778
Since it is a comparative (relative) measure, just like Sharpe, you can use either
whole numbers or decimals in your calculations as long as you are consistent.
You would compare the Treynor ratio of one fund with other funds you may be
considering, and the higher the number the better. Remember, though, that since
Treynor uses beta there has to be a high enough level of systematic risk (R-
squared of 70 or higher) in order for beta to be reliable enough to use Treynor.
Information Ratio (IR)
The information ratio has just recently been added to the CFP Board exam sheet,
and is determined as follows:
A
BP RR IR
σ= −
where
PR = Return of the portfolio
BR = Return of the benchmark index
Aσ = Standard deviation of only the excess return
The information ratio is an extension of the Sharpe ratio; however, instead of
subtracting the risk-free rate from the portfolio return, the benchmark return is
subtracted in the numerator. This means that you are looking at what excess
return (if any) the fund manager achieved over the benchmark. This excess
return, or alpha, can be positive or negative depending on the performance of the
manager. Another difference is that the denominator is not the standard deviation
of the portfolio; instead, it is the standard deviation of the difference between the
returns on the portfolio and the returns on the benchmark—generally called the
tracking error or active risk.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 57 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Managers taking on higher levels of risk are expected to achieve higher rates of
return, and this can be measured by the IR. The higher the IR, the more likely it
is that the portfolio manager was able to capitalize on opportunities in the
marketplace. An IR of 0.50 or higher would mean that the fund manager has an
excess return (or alpha) that is about half of the volatility of the alpha (the
tracking error).
Example. You have two funds, both with a return of 12%. The return of the
benchmark is 10%. Fund X has active risk (tracking error) of 4%, and Fund Y
has active risk of 8%.
Fund X: 4
1012 −= IR = .50
Fund Y: 8
1012 −= IR = .25
You would choose Fund X, with the higher information ratio. Managers with IRs
of 0.50 or higher are often in the top quartile of their asset class.
Reading the next part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–8 Specify relationships among various indicators of security returns.
Determining the Market Rate
Investors want to know how their specific investments are performing. They can
use the performance measures previously discussed to determine how each of
their investments is performing relative to its risk level. Each of the performance
measurement methods involves knowing how “the market” did. Defining “the
market” is not an easy matter.
58 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Index Characteristics
The International Guide to Securities Market Indices contains information on
400 of the world’s leading securities market indexes. Among the characteristics
that are preferred in an index are the following:
1. The index should be relevant and appropriate. It should track the relevant
markets, market segments, instruments, individual securities, and investment
styles.
2. The index should be comprehensive, or broad based, incorporating, to the
extent appropriate, the markets, security types, and individual securities that
reflect the investment opportunities available to investors.
3. An investor should be able to invest in the index, and market participants
should be able to replicate it.
4. The index should be constructed so that each security’s return is weighted
according to its market value at the beginning of the period that the return is
measured.
Benchmark Principles
Two indexes are well known to all investors: the Dow Jones Industrial Average
and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Many investors judge how well their
securities and portfolios have performed by comparing them to one or both of
these indexes. This method may have been adequate as recently as the 1960s,
when investors’ portfolios consisted primarily of large companies headquartered
in the United States. Investors’ portfolios today, however, consist of far more.
Financial advisors invest their clients’ portfolios in a combination of asset classes
that typically include the following:
1. equities:
U.S. stocks: large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks
international stocks: developed countries and emerging markets
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 59 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
2. fixed income:
U.S. government, U.S. intermediate-term, U.S. high-yield, and municipal
bonds
foreign debt
3. real assets (securitized)
REITs
4. cash equivalents
money market funds
Advisors may use asset classes other than the ones listed here, but these classes
are among the ones most commonly used in client portfolios.
Performance Index
A performance index for each asset class helps investors properly measure the
performance of their stocks or funds against other similar securities. For example,
U.S. large-cap stocks and funds led the investment hit parade during the mid-to-late
1990s. U.S. small-cap stocks and funds performed less spectacularly during the
same period. An investor should measure the performance of a small-cap fund in
his or her portfolio against the small-cap index, not against the large-cap index.
The fund could be an outstanding performer in the small-cap asset class, but its
performance could look anemic compared to that of the large-cap index.
Index Mutual Fund
Some advisors prefer to use one of the many index mutual funds as the index
instead of one of the indexes described in the tables that follow. These indexes
cannot be replicated precisely by an investor’s portfolio because the index reports
gross total returns, whereas an investor generally has transaction costs and (with
mutual funds or privately managed accounts) investment management fees
subtracted from total returns. Therefore, an index fund is a better indicator of
what an investor might expect from a passive approach because the index fund
return is net of transaction costs and management fees.
60 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Weighted Indexes
Measuring the performance of an entire portfolio against a single performance
measure is difficult. No single index is so comprehensive as to include even the
short list of asset classes identified previously. Several world indexes do exist in
the stock and bond asset classes that could be used, but even a comparison
against these indexes might not be realistic. A more realistic approach might be
to create a dollar-weighted portfolio index using the indexes against which each
asset class is being measured. A consistent method of measuring each asset class
and the entire portfolio would then be available.
The vast majority of market indexes are capitalization weighted (also called
value weighted), which means that whatever percentage of market capitalization
you have relative to the market capitalization of the entire index is the amount of
weight you will be given in that index. For example, if your market capitalization
is $10 billion, and the market capitalization of the entire index is $100 billion,
you will account for 10% of that index, and for 10% of the price movement of
the index. Capitalization weighted indexes are used in modern portfolio theory,
since they most accurately reflect what is happening in the market.
There are two notable exceptions to the capitalization weighted indexes, and
these are the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Value Line Composite
Index. The DJIA is a “price-weighted” index, and the Value Line is an “equal
weighted” index.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average results from adding together the prices of all
30 stocks in the index, and then dividing by a “divisor.” The divisor adjusts for
stock splits and company changes that have occurred over time. The net effect of
this is that higher priced stocks will generally have more of an impact on the
average than lower priced stocks, regardless of the market capitalization of the
stocks. For example, a company trading at $80 per share with a market cap of
$10 billion would have more impact than a company trading at $25 per share
with a market cap of $20 billion. Another way to look at it is that a 5% change on
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 61 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
a $100 stock ($5.00) will have more of an impact on the average than a 5%
change on a $50 stock ($2.50). Despite these shortcomings, the DJIA is the most
widely followed stock market indicator for the U.S. markets. But because it is not
capitalization (value) weighted, it is not used in modern portfolio theory analysis.
You will not find the DJIA used as a benchmark by Morningstar.
Value Line Index
The Value Line Index is the other notable exception to capitalization weighted
indexes. The Value Line is an equally weighted index, giving the same weight to
each of the approximately 1,700 stocks in the index. This is done by considering
only the percentage change in each of the stocks. Market price and market
capitalization are not relevant.
Asset Class Benchmarks
Advisors have a wide range of potential benchmarks that they may use for each
asset class. Table 4 identifies some of the more popular benchmarks used by
investment advisors for some of the asset classes listed earlier.
Table 4: Asset Class Benchmarks
Asset Class Benchmarks
U.S. large-cap stocks S&P 500 S&P 100
U.S. mid-cap stocks S&P Mid-Cap 400
U.S. small-cap stocks Russell 2000 S&P Small-Cap 600
International developed markets MSCI EAFE
International emerging markets S&P/IFC Investable MSCI Emerging Markets Free Global
U.S. intermediate-term bonds Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond
62 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Asset Class Benchmarks
U.S. high-yield bonds Bank of America—Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield
Municipal bonds Bank of America—Merrill Lynch Municipal Master
Equity REITs Wilshire Real Estate Securities
A synopsis of these indexes is shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Descriptions of Popular Benchmarks
Benchmark Synopsis
S&P 500 Tracks performances of 500 of the largest companies listed on the NYSE, the AMEX, and the Nasdaq system, accounting for approximately 64% of the market value of stocks listed on the exchanges
S&P 100 Tracks performances of 100 of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 index.
S&P Mid-Cap 400 Tracks performances of stocks listed on the NYSE that have a market capitalization between $200 million and $5 billion
Russell 2000 Tracks performances of the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 index, which have a market capitalization between $9 million and $2 billion and account for approximately 8% of the U.S. market capitalization
S&P Small-Cap 600 Tracks performances of 600 companies that have an average market value range of $80 million to $600 million and are in market sectors representative of the sectors typical in the small company universe
MSCI EAFE The most common benchmark for foreign stocks in 21 developed countries in Europe, Australia, and the Far East (no U.S. or Canada)
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond
Comprised of about 8,000 municipal bonds that are all investment grade, fixed-rate, and long-term maturities.
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 63 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Benchmark Synopsis
S&P/IFC Investable Tracks performances of 30 developing countries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America that are available for purchase by foreign institutional investors
MSCI Emerging Markets Free Global
Tracks performances of stocks in 25 developing countries that are open to foreign investment
Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond
Tracks performances of U.S. investment grade bonds, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and ten years
Wilshire Real Estate Securities
Tracks the performance of publicly traded equity REITs, real estate operating companies, and master limited partnerships
BofA Merrill Lynch Bond Indices
Bank of America Merrill Lynch has numerous bond indices that represent various bond markets and bond sectors
Note that you should strive to make as accurate a comparison as possible when comparing a portfolio against a benchmark. This normally entails coming up with a “blended” benchmark. For example, if 30% of a client’s portfolio is in U.S. large-cap stocks, then 30% of the client’s benchmark could be the S&P 500. If 10% were in U.S. small-cap stocks then 10% of the client’s benchmark could be the Russell 2000. You would do this for each of the major asset classes, until you reach 100%. You could then compare the client’s portfolio against a blended benchmark that truly reflects how the client is invested. It makes no sense to compare a client’s entire portfolio return against just the S&P 500 return if only 30% of the portfolio is invested in U.S. large-cap stocks.
Long-Term Market Statistics
Long-term data helps financial advisors and investors keep their perspective about the long-term returns and correlations of major asset classes and about the relative relationships of long-term returns and long-term risk levels. For example, Ibbotson data shows that the return on intermediate-term U.S. Treasury bonds (5.4%) is only slightly lower than the return on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (5.7%); yet the risk level, as measured by standard deviation, is 5.7% for intermediate term Treasury bonds, and 9.8% for long-term Treasury bonds. In other words, for 30 basis points (1% = 100 basis points) more of yield, investors
64 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
have taken on about 71% more risk. This fact may help explain why many investors like intermediate-term bonds more than long-term bonds.
Here are return and risk numbers from the 2013 Ibbotson Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Classic Yearbook, which we have already looked at in a previous module. This time, compare these long-term numbers to the annual returns by decade, found in Table 7.
Table 6: Risk and Return, 1926 to 2012
Geometric Mean
Arithmetic Mean
Standard Deviation
Large Company Stocks 9.8% 11.8% 20.2%
Small Company Stocks 11.9% 16.5% 32.3%
Long-Term Corporate Bonds 6.1% 6.4% 8.3%
Long-Term Government 5.7% 6.1% 9.7%
Intermediate-Term Government 5.4% 5.5% 5.6%
U.S. Treasury Bills 3.5% 3.6% 3.1%
Inflation 3.0% 3.1% 4.1%
Source: Ibbotson SBBI 2013 Classic Yearbook
Table 7: Compound Annual Rates of Return by Decade
1920s* 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Large Co.
19.2% -0.1% 9.2% 19.4% 7.8% 5.9% 17.5% 18.2% -0.9%
Small Co.
-4.5% 1.4% 20.7% 16.9% 15.5% 11.5% 15.8% 15.1% 6.3%
LT Corp. 5.2% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 1.7% 6.2% 13.0% 8.4% 7.6%
LT Gov’t 5.0% 4.9% 3.2% -0.1% 1.4% 5.5% 12.6% 8.8% 7.7%
IntTerm Gov’t
4.2% 4.6% 1.8% 1.3% 3.5% 7.0% 11.9% 7.2% 6.2%
T-Bills 3.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 3.9% 6.3% 8.9% 4.9% 2.8%
Inflation -1.1% -2.0% 5.4% 2.2% 2.5% 7.4% 5.1% 2.9% 2.5%
*based on the period 1926–1929
Source: Ibbotson SBBI 2013 Classic Yearbook
You will notice that there can be a fairly substantial difference between the
historical long-term rate of return, and the annual return by decade. For example,
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 65 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
the long-term return for large company stocks is 9.8%. In the 1990s the
compound annual return was 18.2%, over 8% a year better! Then take a look at
the return for 2000 decade and the annual return is -0.9%! These are major
differences and they cover what many would consider a fairly long period of
time—a decade. This is why it is generally recommended by many advisors that
any funds needed within the next five years should not be invested in the stock
market. Looking at the returns we have had since 2000, perhaps this time period
should even be longer. It is important when using long-term returns that advisors
and investors understand that these are long-term averages, calculated over long
periods of time that have seen some pretty wide variability, both up and down.
The average long-term return might be 9.8%, but an investor might not see that
return for years, even decades.
Reading the next part of this chapter will enable you to:
4–9 Evaluate the risk-adjusted performances of alternative investment
securities or portfolios to recommend the most appropriate selection
for a given client situation.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Investors use many approaches to select investments and combinations of
investments for portfolios. The principles of portfolio selection focus on selecting
investments that have low correlation coefficients with each other. The asset classes
discussed earlier have correlation coefficients that are sufficiently distant from each
other so that a portfolio consisting of those asset classes would have a relatively low
portfolio standard deviation.
All the asset classes mentioned do not have to be used for a portfolio to be diversified sufficiently. Academic research has demonstrated that a minimum of four asset classes is necessary for adequate diversification, but increasing the number to more than seven or eight asset classes results in minimal marginal benefit.
66 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Selection of individual securities or mutual funds focuses on risk-adjusted returns. If an investor has decided to invest in the large-cap asset class, he or she needs to select a specific fund from that asset class. Investors who believe that markets are completely efficient may select index funds for each asset class. Investors who believe in active portfolio management will select non-index funds.
Even within an asset class, individual funds will differ in the individual securities held, the diversification among industry groups, and the risk level taken. Therefore, some method of standardizing the returns relative to the risk taken will help investors make better decisions about selection of individual funds and/or stocks.
Computing a Risk-Adjusted Return
The portfolio performance methods shown in this module are ideal for this step in the portfolio management and design process. The Sharpe index can be used to compare any two securities with each other. It is best used to compare securities within the same asset class, such as large-cap funds. Even within the large-cap asset class, a further breakdown into large-cap value and large-cap growth is advisable. Value securities and growth securities frequently are on different cycles. Comparing like-kind securities with each other yields results that are superior to those derived from comparing securities with different characteristics.
The Jensen index (alpha) can be used with most securities and funds, especially when the relevant market index is the same for each security. Morningstar simplifies this process for mutual funds by providing a “best-fit index” for each fund that it analyzes. Sometimes even the best fit may not be most appropriate because Morningstar uses only the indexes that it maintains in its database. Some funds are difficult to fit into any one of the Morningstar databases. Because beta is used in the Jensen index, the beta must be relevant for the index to be useful.
The Treynor index is more difficult to use in practice. Perhaps this is why Morningstar makes no attempt to provide a Treynor index in its reports. To use the Treynor index, which uses beta in the denominator, the security or fund being analyzed must be part of a fully diversified portfolio. It is difficult to know when this fact can be relied upon for MPT purposes. Therefore, the Treynor index is
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 67 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
seldom used in practice. A Treynor index can be computed using the best-fit index and be relevant relative to other funds that are compared to that same index.
Other methods of computing risk-adjusted returns include (1) dividing the total return by the beta or standard deviation of the security or portfolio and (2) computing the coefficient of variation, which is the standard deviation divided by the total return. In general, no single method should be used alone; the results of more than one method can be compared to see if the results are similar or different.
Mutual Fund Comparison
The following mutual funds were selected, using historical data, to help demonstrate several of the concepts we have now covered. We will then compare this data to more recent data later in this chapter.
Morningstar Exercise: Table A (2007)
Fund Mean Return
Standard Deviation
Sharpe Ratio
Vanguard 500 Index 13.00% 7.52% 1.11
Davis NY Venture A 14.12% 6.75% 1.38
RiverSource Large Value A 12.72% 7.64% 1.06
First Eagle Gold A 21.43% 24.21% 0.75
Fidelity Real Estate 18.16% 15.60% 0.88
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2007
Morningstar Exercise: Table B (2007)
Name R-squared (R2 ) Benchmark Beta Alpha
Vanguard 500 Index 100 S&P 500 1.00 –0.12
Davis NY Venture A 87 S&P 500 0.84 2.19
89 Russell 1000 Value 0.82 0.84
RiverSource Large Value A
93 S&P 500 0.98 –0.16
96 Russell 1000 Value 0.95 –1.78
68 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Name R-squared (R2 ) Benchmark Beta Alpha
First Eagle Gold A 45 MSCI EAFE 1.71 –11.45
95 AMEX Gold Miners 0.79 3.89
Fidelity Real Estate 39 S&P 500 1.30 2.80
98 Wilshire REIT 0.94 –0.51
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2007
(Note that Morningstar is using just three years of data when calculating return
and risk measurements for these mutual funds, and quoting the mean return and
standard deviation on an annualized basis. For our example we are using data
from 2004 to 2007.)
Vanguard 500 Index. Refer first to the Vanguard 500 Index fund in Morningstar
Exercise: Table A. Note that its R2 with the market (the S&P 500 Index) is 100,
meaning 100% of the price movement of the Vanguard 500 Index fund is
explained by the S&P 500 Index (100% systematic risk). This of course makes
sense since it is an index fund. Note that the beta is 1.00, which also makes sense.
The Vanguard fund is just as volatile as the index itself, since it is the index.
Alpha, however, is slightly negative (-0.12), and this is because of the fees. If
there were no fees the alpha would be 0.
Davis NY Venture A. Now let’s take a look at the next fund, Davis NY Venture
A. Note that its R2 with the S&P 500 is 87. This means that 87% of the price
movement of the fund is explained by the S&P 500 (systematic risk), and the
other 13% would then be unsystematic risk. Remember that we are looking for an
R2 of 70 or higher in order to consider beta to be reliable, so we are above that
threshold. This means we can use both Treynor and alpha, which use beta in their
formulas. Note that there is a very respectable alpha of 2.19, meaning the
portfolio manager has achieved 2.19% more for investors than required based on
the amount of risk taken.
Russell 1000 Value. There is an index that is even more highly correlated with
the Davis NY Venture A, and that is the Russell 1000 Value. Note that the R2
with the Russell 1000 Value is 89, giving us 89% systematic risk, 11%
unsystematic. The beta is 0.82, and we still have a positive alpha, although lower,
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 69 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
of 0.84. Based on both of these comparisons we can see that the Davis NY
Venture fund has lower volatility than the market (as shown by the betas lower
than 1.00), and has provided a return greater than required for the amount of risk
taken (as shown by the positive alphas).
RiverSource Large Value A. Our next fund is also a large-cap value fund: the
RiverSource Large Value A. Note that its R2 with the S&P 500 is 93, giving us
93% systematic risk, and 7% unsystematic. The beta is 0.98, and it has a negative
alpha of -0.16. It has an even higher correlation with the Russell 1000 Value, an
R2 of 96, a beta of 0.95, and a negative alpha of -1.78. This means that the fund
has not delivered the amount of return it should have given the amount of risk
that was taken, falling 1.78% short of the required return. One other item to note,
with an R2 of 96 this fund is very close to being a pure index fund. An investor
might consider just purchasing a Russell 1000 value index fund, which would
have lower fees while closely mirroring the index.
First Eagle Gold A. The next fund is the First Eagle Gold A, which is obviously
a gold and metals fund. Its R2 with the MSCI EAFE is just 45, giving us 45%
systematic risk and 55% unsystematic risk. The low R2 means that this fund
would be a very good diversifier because of its low correlation with the MSCI
EAFE. (Note: Remember how you take the square root of R2 to come up with the
correlation coefficient?)
HP-10BII+: .45, SHIFT, x (minus key) = .6708
HP-12C: .45, ENTER, g, x (yx key) = .6708
An R2 of 45 means that beta is not reliable since it is below 70. This means that
the beta shown of 1.71, and the alpha of -11.45 should not be used. Now look at
the First Eagle Gold compared to the AMEX Gold Miners index. The R2 is 95,
giving us a very high level of systematic risk, and thus beta reliability. Note the
low beta of 0.79, and a high positive alpha of +3.89. So comparing this gold fund
against a benchmark of gold funds, we have lower volatility than the benchmark
(low beta), and a higher risk-adjusted return (positive alpha). One caveat:
70 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Remember that beta is a relative measure, telling you how volatile one
investment is relative to another (usually a benchmark); it does not necessarily
mean an investment is not volatile. If you look at Morningstar Exercise: Table A
you will see that The First Eagle Gold fund has a standard deviation of 24.21%—
much higher than the Vanguard 500 standard deviation of 7.52%—talk about a
bumpy ride!
Fidelity Real Estate. Finally, take a look at the Fidelity Real Estate. Compared
with the S&P 500 its R2 is just 39, making it a great diversifier with the S&P 500,
but beta is not reliable. When it is compared with the Wilshire REIT index we
have an R2 of 98, making beta very reliable. In fact, with such a high R2 an
investor might consider a Wilshire REIT index fund, since this fund is in fact
almost mirroring the index, and with a negative alpha (-0.51) there is no risk-
adjusted value being added.
You should also take a look at Morningstar Exercise: Table A, which gives you
additional data on these funds, including their Sharpe ratios. For example, the
Sharpe ratios for our two large-cap value funds that we discussed above are:
Davis NY Venture A 1.38
RiverSource Large Value A 1.06
Based on this relative measure, we would choose the Davis NY Venture fund
because of the higher Sharpe ratio.
Another calculation you could do with the information given in Morningstar
Exercise: Table A is the coefficient of variation—dividing the standard deviation
by the mean return.
If we were to do that for our two large-cap funds the results would be:
Davis NY Venture A 6.75/14.12 = .4780
RiverSource Large Value A 7.64/12.72 = .6006
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 71 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
With coefficient of variation the lower the better, so based on this measurement we would also choose the Davis NY Venture fund.
Bear in mind that when we look at Morningstar or other sources we are looking at past history. Correlations change, variability and volatility change, and performance numbers change, as we will see next. We do our best with the tools we have, but there are, of course, no guarantees.
What a Difference a Year or Two Makes
The previous exercise was using Morningstar 3-year annualized return statistics from 9/2004 –9/2007:
Morningstar Exercise: Table C (2007)
Fund Mean Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio
Vanguard 500 Index 13.00% 7.52% 1.11
Davis NY Venture A 14.12% 6.75% 1.38
RiverSource Large Value A 12.72% 7.64% 1.06
First Eagle Gold A 21.43% 24.21% 0.75
Fidelity Real Estate 18.16% 15.60% 0.88
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2007
Let’s take a look at the same five funds, but use data from a year later, using
returns from 9/2005–9/2008:
Morningstar Exercise: Table D (2008)
Fund Mean Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio
Vanguard 500 Index 2.74% 10.06% –0.09
Davis NY Venture A 3.83% 10.33% 0.02
RiverSource Large Value A –2.95% 12.27% –0.52
First Eagle Gold A 20.72% 26.67% 0.69
Fidelity Real Estate 3.64% 17.09% 0.06
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2008
72 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
And here again are these same five funds, but using data now from 9/2006-
9/2009:
Morningstar Exercise: Table E (2009)
Fund Mean Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio
Vanguard 500 Index –5.83% 19.60% –0.34 Davis NY Venture A –6.35% 21.97% –0.31 RiverSource Equity Value A* –6.04% 21.10% –0.32 First Eagle Gold A 14.83% 33.96% 0.50 Fidelity Real Estate –15.06% 41.02% –0.25
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2009
*RiverSource Large Cap Value was merged into the RiverSource Equity Value A on 9/11/2009
You can see quite a dramatic change caused by the market sell-off in 2008 and 2009. Note that the mean returns have gone down, and the standard deviations have risen dramatically. The standard deviation for the Vanguard 500 more than doubled during this time period—it was 7.52% in 9/2007, 10.06% in 9/2008, and 19.60% in 9/2009. The standard deviation for the Fidelity Real Estate fund jumped from 15.60% in 9/2007 to 41.02% in 9/2009. Investors were handed the worst of both worlds during this time period: lower, often negative returns, accompanied with higher standard deviations.
Here is the second table, first the one from 2007 we used previously, and updated tables for 2008 and 2009:
Morningstar Exercise: Table F (2007)
Name R-squared (R2 ) Benchmark Beta Alpha
Vanguard 500 Index 100 S&P 500 1.00 –0.12 Davis NY Venture A 87 S&P 500 0.84 2.19 89 Russell 1000 Value 0.82 0.84 RiverSource Large Value A 93 S&P 500 0.98 –0.16 96 Russell 1000 Value 0.95 –1.78 First Eagle Gold A 45 MSCI EAFE 1.71 –11.45 95 AMEX Gold Miners 0.79 3.89 Fidelity Real Estate 39 S&P 500 1.30 2.80
98 Wilshire REIT 0.94 –0.51 Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2007
Chapter 3: Security Performance Evaluation 73 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Morningstar Exercise: Table G (2008)
Name R-squared (R2 ) Benchmark Beta Alpha
Vanguard 500 Index 100 S&P 500 1.00 –0.10
Davis NY Venture A 92 S&P 500 0.99 0.20
93 Russell 1000 Value 0.98 0.00
RiverSource Large Value A 96 S&P 500 1.06 –2.93
97 Russell 1000 Value 1.05 –2.83
First Eagle Gold A 1 MSCI EAFE 8.65 12.50
96 AMEX Gold Miners 0.81 5.60
Fidelity Real Estate 41 S&P 500 1.09 0.90
98 Wilshire REIT 0.96 –1.70
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2008
Morningstar Exercise: Table H (2009)
Name R-squared (R2 ) Benchmark Beta Alpha
Vanguard 500 Index 100 S&P 500 1.00 –0.10
Davis NY Venture A 97 S&P 500 1.11 0.60
97 S&P 500 1.11 0.60
RiverSource Equity Value A* 98 S&P 500 1.07 0.50
98 Russell 1000 1.04 0.10
First Eagle Gold A 1 ML USD LIBOR
5.67 9.60
97 AMEX Gold Miners
0.72 5.02
Fidelity Real Estate 64 S&P 500 1.68 0.80
99 DJ Real Estate
1.00 –0.10
Source: Morningstar Principia Pro, September 2009
*RiverSource Large Cap Value was merged into the RiverSource Equity Value A on 9/11/2009
74 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Again, changes can be observed. For example, notice that the First Eagle Gold
fund had a correlation of 45 with the MSCI EAFE index in 9/2007, and this
dropped to a correlation of just 1 in 9/2008. Notice how the correlation for the
Fidelity Real Estate fund has risen; in 9/2007 its correlation with EAFE was just
39, and in 9/2009 it has risen to 64. Remember that we discussed how
correlations change over time in Module 2, and how there can sometimes be
dramatic changes in correlation, especially over short time periods.
Since Morningstar is using only three years of data for these return and risk
measurements, an advisor needs to be careful to not read too much into them. If
one looks at the 9/2007 numbers (with the Vanguard 500 Index fund having a
mean return of 13% and a standard deviation of 7.52%) it is easy to get an overly
optimistic picture of the market. However, fast-forward just two years to 9/2009
(with the Vanguard 500 Index fund having a mean return of –5.83% and a
standard deviation of 19.60%), and the picture looks fairly bleak given the
tremendous amount of risk (standard deviation) for a negative return, and it is
easy to get an overly pessimistic picture of the market. It is important that
advisors have a clear understanding of what they are looking at, and be able to
objectively evaluate any data and performance measurements they may come
across in their research. As one can see it can be naïve, even dangerous, to just
look at one set of numbers and make too many assumptions from just those
numbers.
Summary 75 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Summary any investors rely on dividend income for part of their retirement
income. Dividend reinvestment plans are an important means of
building investor net worth. Dividends are a key component of the
dividend growth model, which is used to determine a security’s intrinsic value.
Investors can use several valuation methods, including ratio analysis, to
determine if a security is undervalued or overvalued. New investors should learn
these various approaches to avoid the trap of relying on only one technique,
which may lead an investor to make a bad decision regarding which stock to buy
or sell.
A good start in constructing and monitoring client portfolios is to draft an
Investment Policy Statement (IPS). Some method of performance evaluation
(that may be addressed in the IPS) is necessary to determine how the absolute
and risk-adjusted returns compare to like-kind investments.
Three performance measures—the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen (alpha)
indexes—are used to compute risk-adjusted performance. Beta needs to be a
reliable number (R-squared of 70 or higher) in order to use Treynor or alpha.
Investors must measure their asset class returns against the indexes for each asset
class in which they are invested. It is important, though, to always keep in mind
that statistics, such as those provided by Morningstar, are always backward-
looking and investors should not get an overly optimistic or overly pessimistic
outlook based on any of these numbers. The examples in the text showed how
dramatically those numbers could change in just a short period of time. Finally,
the overall portfolio performance must be measured against a weighted-average
index or a performance measure that closely reflects the components of the actual
portfolio.
M
76 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Having read the material in this module you should be able to:
4–1 Analyze the impact of different types of cash and stock distributions
on shareholders and on the company.
4–2 Explain terminology related to equity investment valuation models.
4–3 Calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using various stock valuation
techniques or calculate the expected return of a stock.
4–4 Evaluate the appropriateness of investment decisions based on stock
valuation models.
4–5 Explain the various components of the Investment Policy Statement
(IPS).
4–6 Explain the characteristics, uses, and limitations of stock
performance measurement indexes.
4–7 Calculate one or more stock performance measurement indexes for
given portfolio returns and risk.
4–8 Specify relationships among various indicators of security returns.
4–9 Evaluate the risk-adjusted performances of alternative investment
securities or portfolios to recommend the most appropriate selection
for a given client situation.
Module Review 77 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Module Review
Questions
4–1 Analyze the impact of different types of cash and stock distributions
on shareholders and on the company.
1. Explain each of the following terms that are associated with the payment of common stock dividends.
a. regular cash dividend
Go to answer.
b. payout ratio
Go to answer.
c. retained earnings
Go to answer.
d. ex-dividend date
Go to answer.
e. date of record
Go to answer.
f. stock dividend
Go to answer.
g. dilution
Go to answer.
h. special dividend
Go to answer.
2. Assume that a corporation announces on April 10 (the declaration date) that a dividend will be paid on May 15 and that the date of record will be Friday, May 5. Your client purchases 100 shares of the stock on May 2 and then sells the shares on May 4. Will your client receive the dividend? Explain your response.
Go to answer.
78 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
3. Assume ABC Company announces that a stock dividend of 4%—rather than a cash dividend—will be paid on its common stock. Your client owns 500 shares of ABC Company, and the current price is $30 per share.
a. What is your client’s dollar ownership before the stock dividend?
Go to answer.
b. How many additional shares will your client receive as a result of the stock dividend?
Go to answer.
c. What is your client’s dollar ownership after the stock dividend, assuming there have been no other changes due to trading in the stock?
Go to answer.
d. Does the stock dividend change the firm’s assets or liabilities? Explain your answer.
Go to answer.
4. List the primary advantage and the primary disadvantage of a stock dividend.
Go to answer.
5. What is the most common reason for a company to declare a stock split, and how does a stock split accomplish the company’s purpose?
Go to answer.
6. Describe the impact of a stock split on each of the following.
a. the firm’s balance sheet
Go to answer.
b. the value of the stock
Go to answer.
Module Review 79 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
7. Your client owns 2,000 shares of QRX common stock before the company issues a 3-for-1 stock split. The market price of QRX before the split was $60 per share.
a. What would your client’s total investment in QRX be worth immediately before the split?
Go to answer.
b. What would the market price of your client’s holdings in QRX be immediately after the split?
Go to answer.
8. What is a reverse stock split, and what is its purpose?
Go to answer.
9. Answer each of the following questions about dividend reinvestment plans.
a. What are the two ways in which a company can obtain and deliver shares if an investor has opted for a dividend reinvestment plan?
Go to answer.
b. What are the advantages for an investor who participates in a dividend reinvestment plan?
Go to answer.
c. What are the advantages for a firm when an investor participates in a dividend reinvestment plan?
Go to answer.
d. How are reinvested dividends taxed?
Go to answer.
10. Why do firms sometimes repurchase their stock?
Go to answer.
11. Identify the two sources of return that are available to an investor in common stock, and briefly explain the taxation of each.
Go to answer.
80 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
12. What is the impact on a shareholder who does not participate in a company’s dividend reinvestment plan?
Go to answer.
13. What is the impact on an investor when a company chooses to repurchase stock instead of increasing the dividends paid?
Go to answer.
4–2 Explain terminology related to equity investment valuation models.
14. Answer the following questions about estimating dividend growth rates. (Note: For this question, use only the process for estimating dividend growth; you will be asked to use the growth rate in the dividend growth model in subsequent questions.)
a. If a company decides to raise its dividend payout ratio (and its future return on equity [ROE] is projected to remain constant), how would the decision to raise the dividend payout ratio affect its dividend growth rate?
Go to answer.
b. How would the company’s stock price be affected if the company raises the payout ratio?
Go to answer.
c. When estimating the dividend growth rate, what impact do fluctuating earnings have on the computation?
Go to answer.
15. Briefly define each of the following terms.
a. expected rate of return
Go to answer.
b. required rate of return
Go to answer.
Module Review 81 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
c. intrinsic value of a stock
Go to answer.
d. risk-free return
Go to answer.
16. Why is present value analysis used to calculate intrinsic value under the dividend growth model?
Go to answer.
17. Under the dividend growth model, what are the three factors on which a stock’s intrinsic value is based?
Go to answer.
18. If a company does not pay a dividend, how can the intrinsic value of its stock be determined?
Go to answer.
4–3 Calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using various stock valuation
techniques or calculate the expected return of a stock.
19. An investor is considering purchase of a $2.50 series A preferred stock. His required return is 10%. Should he purchase this stock if it is selling for $27 per share?
Go to answer.
20. Perform the following calculations to compute the intrinsic value of a stock.
a. Assume that the risk-free rate of return is 8.5%, that the expected rate of return of the market is 13%, and that the stock has a beta coefficient of 1.2. What is the investor’s required rate of return for the stock?
Go to answer.
82 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
b. The current dividend is $2.20 annually, and it is expected to grow at 5% per year. What is the intrinsic value of the stock using the DDM?
Go to answer.
21. Stock BLQ pays an annual dividend of $2.45; its dividends are expected to increase at 4% annually. The stock has a beta coefficient of .72; the risk-free rate is 6.9%; and the market rate of return is 14%. The current market price of stock BLQ is $35 per share.
a. What should be an investor’s required rate of return for stock BLQ?
Go to answer.
b. What is the intrinsic value of stock BLQ?
Go to answer.
c. What is the expected rate of return on stock BLQ?
Go to answer.
22. An investor’s required rate of return is 10%. Stock CMR sells for $26 per share and pays an annual dividend of $.85; its dividends are expected to increase by 7% annually. CMR’s earnings per share are $1.40, its sales per share are $29, and its book value is $14 per share. Compute the following financial statistics for stock CMR.
a. intrinsic value using the DDM
Go to answer.
b. expected return
Go to answer.
c. P/E ratio
Go to answer.
d. PSR
Go to answer.
e. P/B ratio
Go to answer.
Module Review 83 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
23. Assume that Zeus Industries has the following financial statistics.
Zeus Industries Value
Dividend None
Book value per share $2.16
Sales per share $4.24
EPS (current year) $.57
EPS (next year) $.72
Current stock price per share $30.00
Compute the following financial information for Zeus Industries
a. intrinsic value using the DDM
Go to answer.
b. P/E ratio (current year’s earnings)
Go to answer.
c. P/E ratio (next year’s earnings)
Go to answer.
d. P/B ratio
Go to answer.
e. PSR
Go to answer.
4–4 Evaluate the appropriateness of investment decisions based on stock
valuation models.
24. How can an investor use intrinsic value in deciding what action to take concerning a security?
Go to answer.
84 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
25. Assume the stock in Question 20 is selling for $30 per share. Is the stock overvalued or undervalued, and is its expected return less than or more than its required return?
Go to answer.
26. Assume that stock BLQ in Question 21 sells for $35 per share.
a. According to the dividend growth model, is stock BLQ overvalued or undervalued for this investor? Why?
Go to answer.
b. Does the expected rate of return for this stock meet the investor’s required rate of return?
Go to answer.
27. Refer to the answers for Question 22 regarding stock CMR. Assume that the following statistics about the market and the industry for stock CMR apply.
Stock CMR Value
Market P/E ratio 21
Industry P/E ratio 16
Market PSR 1.62
Market P/B ratio 3.4
Would you advise the investor to purchase the stock? Why or why not?
Go to answer.
Module Review 85 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
28. Refer to the answers for Question 23 regarding Zeus Industries. Assume the following ratios are reported for Zeus Industries, the industry, and the market.
Zeus Industries Value
PEG ratio for Zeus Industries 1.68
Industry PEG ratio 1.8
S&P 500 PEG ratio 3.29
S&P 500 P/E ratio (current-year earnings) 27.8
S&P 500 P/B ratio 6.0
Would you advise an investor to purchase the stock of Zeus Industries? Why or why not?
Go to answer.
29. Jon Allen is a retired widower who wants extra income. He has $5,000 available to invest in the stock market, but he is not sure which of the following two stocks he should purchase. His required rate of return is 13%.
Stock 1 Stock 2
Current dividend $1.84 $2.36
Dividend growth rate 3% 6%
Current market price $20/share $32/share
Current yield 9.2% 7.4%
a. According to the dividend valuation method, is Stock 1 currently overvalued or undervalued using Jon’s required rate of return?
Go to answer.
b. Does Stock 1 meet Jon’s required rate of return?
Go to answer.
c. According to the dividend growth method, is Stock 2 currently overvalued or undervalued using Jon’s required rate of return?
Go to answer.
86 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
d. Does Stock 2 meet Jon’s required rate of return?
Go to answer.
e. Which stock is more appropriate for Jon? Justify your response.
Go to answer.
30. A growth company paid a dividend of $0.50 per share in the last fiscal year. They estimate increasing the dividend by 15% per year for the next three years, after which it is expected to grow at a constant rate of 8%. The investor’s required return is 12%. What is the intrinsic value of the stock?
Go to answer.
31. Larry Jones, a recent college graduate, has a good job, and he feels secure enough about his future to be speculative in his investments. Larry’s required rate of return is 17%. He has been considering the following two issues.
Stock 1 Stock 2
Current dividend $1.00 $1.25
Dividend growth rate 10% 12%
Current market price $20/share $24.50/share
a. Which stock is more appropriate for Larry? Justify your response.
Go to answer.
b. If interest rates decrease, causing the risk-free rate to fall by 3%—therefore causing Larry’s required rate of return to decrease to 14%—would you make the same selection? Why?
Go to answer.
32. Two stocks have been presented for your consideration. The beta of Stock A is 1.3, while the beta of Stock B is 0.7. The annual growth rates of dividends are 11% and 6%, respectively. The dividend yields are 5% and 7%, respectively.
a. Since Stock A offers higher potential growth, should it be purchased? Why?
Go to answer.
Module Review 87 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
b. Since Stock B offers a higher dividend yield, should it be purchased? Why?
Go to answer.
33. Assume that the estimated earnings per share for a stock have been forecast to be $3. The stock’s P/E ratio has ranged from 9 to 12.
a. From the information given, what is the possible price range for the stock?
Go to answer.
b. If the stock is currently selling for $28.50 and the estimated earnings are $3, what do these values indicate?
Go to answer.
c. If the appropriate P/E ratio is believed to be 11, is the stock underpriced or overpriced in terms of future earnings? Explain your answer.
Go to answer.
4–5 Explain the various components of the Investment Policy Statement
(IPS).
34. What is the objective of performance evaluation?
Go to answer.
35. Investment policy statements (IPS) have now become mainstream in financial planning practices.
a. What are the four basic purposes of an IPS?
Go to answer.
b. What are the major content areas that should be covered in an IPS?
Go to answer.
88 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
4–6 Explain the characteristics, uses, and limitations of stock
performance measurement indexes.
36. The capital asset pricing model is the basis for the Jensen, Treynor, and Sharpe performance indexes. What does the CAPM specify about the required return on an investment?
Go to answer.
37. Answer each of the following questions on the Jensen performance index.
a. What information does the Jensen index provide about a specific investment or portfolio?
Go to answer.
b. The Jensen equation can be expressed as follows:
( )[ ]β−+−= fmfp RRRRa
Why is this form of the equation useful in performance evaluation?
Go to answer.
c. What does a positive alpha indicate about a portfolio manager’s performance? What does a negative alpha indicate?
Go to answer.
d. The Jensen index measures the risk premium in terms of beta. On what assumption is this risk measure based?
Go to answer.
38. Answer each of the following questions on the Treynor performance index.
a. What limitations are associated with the Treynor index?
Go to answer.
b. How can these limitations be overcome?
Go to answer.
Module Review 89 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
39. Answer each of the following questions on the Sharpe performance index.
a. In what one way does the Sharpe index formula differ from the Treynor index formula?
Go to answer.
b. Of what significance is this difference?
Go to answer.
c. The Sharpe index has a limitation that is the same as a limitation of the Treynor index. What is this limitation, and how is it overcome?
Go to answer.
40. Is one of the three performance indexes (Jensen, Sharpe, or Treynor) better than the others?
Go to answer.
4–7 Calculate one or more stock performance measurement indexes for
given portfolio returns and risk.
41. Your client has found a mutual fund that she likes. Performance and risk characteristics of the fund and the market are as shown in the following table. Compute the Treynor index for the fund and for the market, and determine if the fund outperformed the market.
Characteristic Client Fund Market
Excess return (portfolio return minus risk-free rate)
13% 11%
Beta 1.4 1.0
R-squared with market 88% N/A
Treynor index
Go to answer.
90 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
42. Using both the Sharpe and Treynor performance indexes, indicate which of the two funds shown in the following table has the best risk-adjusted performance. (The risk-free rate is 6%.)
a. Assume that the R2 for Fund A is 85% and that it is 89% for Fund B.
Fund A Fund B
Return 18% 16%
Beta 1.3 1.1
Standard deviation 24 30
Go to answer.
b. Assume that the R2 for Fund A is 46% and that it is 89% for Fund B. What impact does Fund A’s lower R2 have on the calculations?
GoGo to answer. to answer.
43. Your client wants you to analyze the funds in the following table based on the information given. Use all three performance evaluation methods. (The risk-free rate is 6%.)
Fund X Fund Y
Market Index
Realized return 17% 20% 18%
Beta .72 1.2 1.0
Standard deviation 9 16 15
R2 with market 87 81 N/A
Go to answer.
4–8 Specify relationships among various indicators of security returns.
44. List the four attributes that preferred indexes should have.
Go to answer.
Module Review 91 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
45. The S&P 500 Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are the two most popular averages reported in the financial press and on financial programs on radio and television. Why might the returns on these averages be inappropriate for measuring the performance of an investment portfolio?
Go to answer.
46. Using Table 6 in this module, list the six asset classes in order of decreasing risk (highest risk first), and note any exceptions to the usual risk/return trade-off.
Go to answer.
47. How should historical returns be used in investment planning?
Go to answer.
48. Explain how the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) differs from each of the following indexes.
a. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500)
Go to answer.
b. NYSE Composite Index
Go to answer.
c. Value Line Index
Go to answer.
49. What observations can you make about inflation and various asset classes using the data shown in Table 6 (Summary Statistics of Annual Total Returns)?
Go to answer.
4–9 Evaluate the risk-adjusted performances of alternative investment
securities or portfolios to recommend the most appropriate selection
for a given client situation.
50. Assume that you have another fund to recommend to the client in Question 41. Over the same period as the period of the fund that the client likes, the new fund’s excess return was 12% and its beta was 0.95. Would you recommend that your client purchase the fund you like or purchase a market index fund?
Go to answer.
92 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
51. You have narrowed your choices down to the following three funds.
Fund A Fund B Fund C
Sharpe 0.23 0.55 0.69
Treynor 0.44 0.67 0.51
Jensen (alpha) 1.24 0.96 –0.23
Beta 0.92 0.97 1.02
R-squared 87 82 93
a. Which fund would you choose and why?
Go to answer.
b. If the R-squared for all three funds was below 70, what fund would you then choose and why?
Go to answer.
52. In the past, Grant Walker, age 37, has invested in individual stocks without much success. He wants to take a moderate risk and hopes to have a moderate return that is above that of CDs. He is considering the following two funds.
Mutual Fund 1 Mutual Fund 2
Type of fund International S&P 500 index
Current yield 1.4% 2.3%
Five-year compound appreciation 18.4% 12.2%
Beta (S&P 500 index) 1.14 1.00
Standard deviation 26 18
R2 with S&P 500 37% 99%
Which one of the two funds is most appropriate for Grant to invest in at this time? Go to answer.
53. Should most portfolios be measured against just one benchmark? Why or why not?
Go to answer.
Module Review 93 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Answers
4–1 Analyze the impact of different types of cash and stock distributions
on shareholders and on the company.
1. Explain each of the terms listed in the following table that are associated with the payment of common stock dividends.
a. regular cash dividend
Most American firms distribute their regular cash dividends on a
quarterly basis. The amount is decided upon by the board of
directors according to company dividend policy.
Return to question.
b. payout ratio
The payout ratio is the amount of dividends paid, divided by the
earnings of the corporation.
Return to question.
c. retained earnings
Retained earnings is that part of earnings not paid out as
dividends. Most firms retain some of their earnings to finance
future growth.
Return to question.
d. ex-dividend date
The ex-dividend date is the second business day preceding the
date of record that was fixed by the corporation. On that date, the
stock trades exclusive of any right to the next dividend payment.
An investor who purchases the stock on or after the ex-dividend
date will not receive the next dividend payment.
Return to question.
e. date of record
The date of record is the second business day after the ex-
dividend date. On the record date, trades are settled and reflected
on the corporation’s books. To have a right to a dividend, an
investor must purchase stock before the ex-dividend date. For
example, assume that Monday, April 6, is the ex-dividend date.
94 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Therefore, the record date is Wednesday, April 8. The investor
must have purchased the stock on or before Friday, April 3, in
order to receive the next dividend.
Return to question.
f. stock dividend
A stock dividend is a noncash dividend that is paid by issuing
additional stock to a current stockholder in proportion to the
number of shares he or she owns. It is considered a
recapitalization to the corporation—neither increasing nor
decreasing assets or liabilities.
Return to question.
g. dilution
Dilution occurs when a company issues a stock dividend in place
of a cash dividend (when stock options, convertibles, and other
options to purchase stock also exist). The market price of the
stock and the earnings per share are reduced to reflect the fact
that more shares are outstanding. (With a stock dividend, each
shareholder ends up with the same percentage of the company
that he or she originally had. When other securities are converted
into new shares, a true dilution occurs for those owners who did
not have anything to exchange for new shares. These owners now
own a smaller percentage of the company than they did before.)
Return to question.
h. special dividend
Sometimes a company will pay a dividend beyond their regular
dividend, called a special dividend; if they have had especially
strong earnings in a year. This is usually accompanied with a
buildup of corporate cash, and the board decides this is an
appropriate way to share the company’s success with the
commons stockholders.
Return to question.
Module Review 95 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
2. Assume that a corporation announces on April 10 (the declaration date) that a dividend will be paid on May 15 and that the date of record will be Friday, May 5. Your client purchases 100 shares of the stock on May 2 and then sells the shares on May 4. Will your client receive the dividend? Explain your response.
The client will receive the dividend because she purchased the stock
one business day before the ex-dividend date (May 3), which is two
days prior to the record date. When she sold the shares on May 4 (the
trade date), the sale was not recorded on the company’s books until
three business days later. Therefore, she was listed as a shareholder
on the company’s books on the record date of May 5.
Return to question.
3. Assume ABC Company announces that a stock dividend of 4%—rather than a cash dividend—will be paid on its common stock. Your client owns 500 shares of ABC Company, and the current price is $30 per share.
a. What is your client’s dollar ownership before the stock dividend?
The client’s investment is worth $15,000 ($30 × 500 shares).
Return to question.
b. How many additional shares will your client receive as a result of the stock dividend?
Stock dividends are expressed as a percentage and are paid as
shares of stock in proportion to the shares already owned. The
client will receive 20 additional shares (.04 × 500), bringing the
total owned to 520 shares.
Return to question.
c. What is your client’s dollar ownership after the stock dividend, assuming there have been no other changes due to trading in the stock?
The client’s investment is still worth $15,000. The value of a
stockholder’s investment is not increased by a stock dividend.
Only the number of shares held by the stockholder is increased.
As the old shares are diluted, the price per share changes to
reflect the dilution—in this case, down to $28.85 ($30 ÷ 1.04 or
$15,000 ÷ 520).
Return to question.
96 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
d. Does the stock dividend change the firm’s assets or liabilities? Explain your answer.
Stock dividends are a form of recapitalization and do not affect the
assets or liabilities of the firm; only the entries in the equity section
of the firm’s balance sheet are affected. A stock dividend transfers
an amount equal to the market price of the shares from retained
earnings to common stock and additional paid-in capital. Although
there has been an increase in the number of shares outstanding,
there has not been an increase in the firm’s cash.
Return to question.
4. List the primary advantage and the primary disadvantage of a stock dividend.
The primary disadvantage is the expense. Among the costs are those
related to issuing new certificates, paying taxes or listing fees on the
new shares, and revising the firm’s stockholder records. A primary
advantage is that it brings to the current stockholders’ attention the
fact that the firm is retaining its cash in order to grow (i.e., a stock
dividend is issued instead of a cash dividend). The stockholders
eventually may be rewarded through the firm’s retention of assets and
its increased earning capacity.
Return to question.
5. What is the most common reason for a company to declare a stock split, and how does a stock split accomplish the company’s purpose?
A corporation usually uses a stock split to bring the market price of its
stock back into a range that is perceived by investors as attractive.
With a stock split, book value per share changes, but the dollar book
value of the firm remains the same. For example, a 2-for-1 split
means that, if there are 100,000 shares outstanding, 100,000 new
shares will be issued, for a total of 200,000 shares outstanding.
Although the dollar book value of the firm does not change, the book
value per share is reduced by half. The market price of the shares is
also reduced by half.
Return to question.
Module Review 97 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
6. Describe the impact of a stock split on each of the following.
a. the firm’s balance sheet
Like a stock dividend, a stock split is a recapitalization, and as
such it does not affect the assets or liabilities of the firm. In a 2-for-
1 split, for example, the number of shares doubles, but each new
share has a par value that is equal to one-half of the par value of
each old share.
Return to question.
b. the value of the stock
The wealth of a stockholder is not immediately affected; however,
if other investors prefer the lower-priced shares after a split, then
demand for this stock could increase and its market value would
rise.
Return to question.
7. Your client owns 2,000 shares of QRX common stock before the company issues a 3-for-1 stock split. The market price of QRX before the split was $60 per share.
a. What would your client’s total investment in QRX be worth immediately before the split?
Before the split, the client’s holdings in QRX would have a value of
$120,000 (2,000 × $60).
Return to question.
b. What would the market price of your client’s holdings in QRX be immediately after the split?
After the 3-for-1 split, the client would own 6,000 shares of QRX,
and the market price of each share would be $20. The value of the
client’s total holdings of QRX would not change because of the
stock split (6,000 × $20 = $120,000).
Return to question.
8. What is a reverse stock split, and what is its purpose?
A reverse stock split reduces the number of shares and raises the
price of the stock. The purpose of such a split is to “add respectability”
to the stock if it is perceived that investors will not buy the stock at a
98 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
low price. Sometimes a reverse stock split is used immediately prior to
an initial public offering so that the offering price is raised into a range
that the underwriter believes makes the stock more marketable.
Return to question.
9. Answer each of the following questions about dividend reinvestment plans.
a. What are the two ways in which a company can obtain and deliver shares if an investor has opted for a dividend reinvestment plan?
Firms may either purchase shares of stock on the open market or
use authorized, but unissued, shares as a way to obtain shares to
use for DRIPs. In both types of reinvestment programs, investors
may also have the option of making additional cash contributions.
Return to question.
b. What are the advantages for an investor who participates in a dividend reinvestment plan?
Dividend reinvestment plans offer the investor an automatic
savings plan, the benefits of dollar cost averaging, and reduced
commission costs.
Return to question.
c. What are the advantages for a firm when an investor participates in a dividend reinvestment plan?
Firms benefit from dividend reinvestment plans because they can
save on the costs associated with sending dividend checks, they
have a method of selling shares (i.e., unissued shares) to
investors without going through a broker, and they have a source
of equity capital.
Return to question.
d. How are reinvested dividends taxed?
Dividends that are directly invested through a dividend
reinvestment plan are taxed at the same rate as dividends paid in
cash.
Return to question.
Module Review 99 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
10. Why do firms sometimes repurchase their stock?
A firm with excess cash may repurchase some of its outstanding
shares of stock as an alternative to paying cash dividends. Of course,
stockholders do not have to sell their shares. A firm may repurchase
shares to reduce the number of shares outstanding, which would
result in an increase in earnings per share. (This strategy can be an
effective way to avoid a takeover attempt by another company.
Excess cash is distributed to current shareholders, and the stock price
frequently rises as earnings per share increases. The rising share
price keeps the stock from becoming undervalued and therefore also
keeps it from becoming a target for takeover attempts.)
Return to question.
11. Identify the two sources of return that are available to an investor in common stock, and briefly explain the taxation of each.
An investor in common stock anticipates a total return in the form of
dividend income and price appreciation. Dividends are taxable when
earned, and capital gains (from price appreciation) are subject to
taxation when realized.
Return to question.
12. What is the impact on a shareholder who does not participate in a company’s dividend reinvestment plan?
When a company offers a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) and a
shareholder declines to participate in the plan, that shareholder
experiences a dilution of his or her ownership in the company. The
percentage of the company’s shares owned by the nonparticipating
shareholder decreases slowly but surely as other shareholders who
are participants in the plan purchase fractional shares each quarter.
The sale of additional shares also affects the company’s earnings per
share since the number of shares over which the earnings must be
spread is greater as a result of the DRIP. (This assumes that the
company issues new shares instead of buying shares in the open
market.)
Return to question.
100 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
13. What is the impact on an investor when a company chooses to repurchase stock instead of increasing the dividends paid?
Investors in high tax brackets receive no tax benefit, since the capital
gains tax rate is the same as the rate on dividends. Also, the
corporate earnings will be distributed over a smaller share base, thus
increasing the earnings per share. If the intended purpose of the stock
repurchase program is to raise the value of the stock to prevent it from
becoming undervalued, then shareholders will benefit from that. The
stock price will rise, increasing their total return on investment.
Return to question.
4–2 Explain terminology related to equity investment valuation models.
14. Answer the following questions about estimating dividend growth rates. (Note: For this question, use only the process for estimating dividend growth; you will be asked to use the growth rate in the dividend growth model in subsequent questions.)
a. If a company decides to raise its dividend payout ratio (and its future return on equity [ROE] is projected to remain constant), how would the decision to raise the dividend payout ratio affect its dividend growth rate?
The dividend growth rate will be lower because the company will
retain less of its earnings to finance its future growth. Should the
company need additional funds for future expansion, it will have to
seek those funds through a stock or debt offering because the
shareholders will have already received a portion of the money
that could have been used to internally finance growth.
Return to question.
b. How would the company’s stock price be affected if the company raises the payout ratio?
The price could rise or fall; it is not possible to determine the
impact on the stock based solely on this decision.
Return to question.
Module Review 101 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
c. When estimating the dividend growth rate, what impact do fluctuating earnings have on the computation?
Fluctuating earnings could result in a dividend growth rate that is
much lower or higher than is realistic, especially if one or two
recent years are not typical. To counter this tendency, analysts
could use a longer time period and/or eliminate the atypical years.
Return to question.
15. Briefly define each of the following terms.
a. expected rate of return
The expected rate of return is the anticipated return on an
investment. It is the sum of interest or dividend income and capital
gains.
Return to question.
b. required rate of return
The required rate of return is the minimum return the investor
wants to receive to compensate for the risk associated with
investing in a particular security. It is computed using the formula
for the security market line (also known as CAPM)—the sum of a
risk-free rate and a risk premium based on the market return and
the security’s beta.
Return to question.
c. intrinsic value of a stock
Intrinsic value, which is the underlying or inherent value of a stock,
is a function of the stock’s current dividend, the anticipated growth
rate in dividends, and the investor’s required rate of return.
Return to question.
d. risk-free return
The risk-free return is the nominal rate of return that an investor
could earn on a risk-free security (e.g., a U.S. Treasury bill).
Return to question.
102 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
16. Why is present value analysis used to calculate intrinsic value under the dividend growth model?
Present value analysis is used because the value of any security can
be determined by discounting the future stream of economic benefits
(cash flows—generally dividends) that the investor expects to receive.
Return to question.
17. Under the dividend growth model, what are the three factors on which a stock’s intrinsic value is based?
Intrinsic value is based on (1) the current dividend, (2) the expected
future growth in earnings and dividends, and (3) the required rate of
return.
Return to question.
18. If a company does not pay a dividend, how can the intrinsic value of its stock be determined?
The intrinsic value can be computed using the P/E ratio, the price-to-
sales ratio, the price-to-book ratio, and the PEG ratio. Even if the
company pays a cash dividend, it is wise to estimate intrinsic value
using all of these techniques to determine if the various approaches
validate each other.
Return to question.
4–3 Calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using various stock valuation
techniques or calculate the expected return of a stock.
19. An investor is considering purchase of a $2.50 series A preferred stock. His required return is 10%. Should he purchase this stock if it is selling for $27 per share?
2510
502 =.
.
According to the zero growth model, the maximum price to pay would
be $25. Since the stock is currently selling at $27, it would be
considered overvalued and should not be purchased.
Return to question.
Module Review 103 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
20. Perform the following calculations to compute the intrinsic value of a stock.
a. Assume that the risk-free rate of return is 8.5%, that the expected rate of return of the market is 13%, and that the stock has a beta coefficient of 1.2. What is the investor’s required rate of return for the stock?
The investor’s required rate of return is 13.9%.
Return to question.
b. The current dividend is $2.20 annually, and it is expected to grow at 5% per year. What is the intrinsic value of the stock using the DDM?
The intrinsic value is $25.96
962505139
05120210 .$..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−+
=−
+=
Return to question.
21. Stock BLQ pays an annual dividend of $2.45; its dividends are expected to increase at 4% annually. The stock has a beta coefficient of .72; the risk-free rate is 6.9%; and the market rate of return is 14%. The current market price of stock BLQ is $35 per share.
a. What should be an investor’s required rate of return for stock BLQ?
r = 6.9 + (14 – 6.9) .72 =
6.9 + (7.1) .72 =
6.9 + 5.1 = 12%
Return to question.
%...).(..r
)rr(rr
s
fmfi
9131392108513085 ==−+=β−+=
104 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
b. What is the intrinsic value of stock BLQ?
85310412
04145210 .$..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−=
−+
=
Return to question.
c. What is the expected rate of return on stock BLQ?
%...).(.
gP
)g(D)r(E 2811112804
35
04145210 ==+=++=
Return to question.
22. An investor’s required rate of return is 10%. Stock CMR sells for $26 per share and pays an annual dividend of $.85; its dividends are expected to increase by 7% annually. CMR’s earnings per share are $1.40, its sales per share are $29, and its book value is $14 per share. Compute the following financial statistics for stock CMR.
a. intrinsic value using the DDM
32300710
0718510 .$..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−+
=−
+=
Return to question.
b. expected return
%...).(.
gP
)g(D)r(E 5010105007
26
0718510 ==+=++=
Return to question.
c. P/E ratio
5718401
26.
.$
$E/P ==
Return to question.
Module Review 105 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
d. PSR
90029
26.
$
$PSR ==
Return to question.
e. P/B ratio
86114
26.
$
$B/P ==
Return to question.
23. Assume that Zeus Industries has the following financial statistics.
Zeus Industries Value
Dividend None
Book value per share $2.16
Sales per share $4.24
EPS (current year) $.57
EPS (next year) $.72
Current stock price per share $30.00
Compute the following financial information for Zeus Industries
a. intrinsic value using the DDM
The DDM cannot be used because Zeus Industries does not pay
dividends.
Return to question.
b. P/E ratio (current year’s earnings)
652570
30.
.$
$ =
Return to question.
106 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
c. P/E ratio (next year’s earnings)
7.4172.0$
30$ =
Return to question.
d. P/B ratio
9.1316.2$30$ =
Return to question.
e. PSR
1.724.4$30$ =
Return to question.
4–4 Evaluate the appropriateness of investment decisions based on stock
valuation models.
24. How can an investor use intrinsic value in deciding what action to take concerning a security?
The intrinsic value of a security is compared to the security’s current
market price to determine if the security is undervalued (i.e., the
market price is less than the intrinsic value) or overvalued (i.e., the
market price is greater than the intrinsic value). If an asset is
undervalued, the asset may be an attractive investment. If an asset is
overvalued, the asset may be less attractive as an investment.
Return to question.
Module Review 107 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
25. Assume the stock in Question 20 is selling for $30 per share. Is the stock overvalued or undervalued, and is its expected return less than or more than its required return?
The stock is overvalued at $30 since its intrinsic value is $25.96.
When a stock is overvalued, its expected return is less than the
required return, which in this case is 13.90%.
Return to question.
26. Assume that stock BLQ in Question 21 sells for $35 per share.
a. According to the dividend growth model, is stock BLQ overvalued or undervalued for this investor? Why?
Stock BLQ is overvalued because the market price is greater than
the intrinsic value calculated using the investor’s required rate of
return for BLQ stock.
Return to question.
b. Does the expected rate of return for this stock meet the investor’s required rate of return?
No, the expected rate of return E(r) for BLQ stock is 11.28%, and
the investor’s required rate of return is 12%. An overvalued stock
will always have an expected return that is lower than the required
return.
Return to question.
27. Refer to the answers for Question 22 regarding stock CMR. Assume that the following statistics about the market and the industry for stock CMR apply.
Stock CMR Value
Market P/E ratio 21
Industry P/E ratio 16
Market PSR 1.62
Market P/B ratio 3.4
Would you advise the investor to purchase the stock? Why or why not?
Yes. The intrinsic value, as computed by the DDM, is higher than the
current market price; therefore, the expected return is higher than the
investor’s required return. The P/E ratio is higher than the industry P/E
ratio, but this could mean the company is one of the superior
108 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
companies in the industry; the company P/E ratio is lower than the
market P/E ratio, which is further evidence of an undervalued
company. The PSR and P/B ratio also indicate an undervalued
company, compared to the market ratios.
Return to question.
28. Refer to the answers for Question 23 regarding Zeus Industries. Assume the following ratios are reported for Zeus Industries, the industry, and the market.
Zeus Industries Value
PEG ratio for Zeus Industries 1.68
Industry PEG ratio 1.8
S&P 500 PEG ratio 3.29
S&P 500 P/E ratio (current-year earnings) 27.8
S&P 500 P/B ratio 6.0
Would you advise an investor to purchase the stock of Zeus Industries? Why or why not?
No. The P/E ratio is substantially above the market’s ratio, even when
using projected earnings for the next year. The stock sells for 13
times book value, which is more than twice the ratio of the market.
And finally, the PSR is more than twice the level at which many would
consider a security to be overvalued. The PEG ratio seems
reasonable, compared to the industry and market levels; however,
given the extreme levels of the other ratios, the PEG ratio alone does
not appear to invalidate the conclusion suggested by the other ratios.
Return to question.
Module Review 109 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
29. Jon Allen is a retired widower who wants extra income. He has $5,000 available to invest in the stock market, but he is not sure which of the following two stocks he should purchase. His required rate of return is 13%.
Stock 1 Stock 2
Current dividend $1.84 $2.36
Dividend growth rate
3% 6%
Current market price
$20/share $32/share
Current yield 9.2% 7.4%
a. According to the dividend valuation method, is Stock 1 currently overvalued or undervalued using Jon’s required rate of return?
Stock 1 is overvalued for Jon at the current stock market price of
$20 because, using Jon’s required rate of return, its intrinsic value
is only $18.95.
95180313
03184110 .$..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−+
=−
+=
Return to question.
b. Does Stock 1 meet Jon’s required rate of return?
No. Stock 1 has an expected return of 12.48%, which is less than
Jon’s required rate of return of 13%.
%...).(.
gP
)g(D)r(E 4812124803
20
03184110 ==+=++=
Return to question.
110 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
c. According to the dividend growth method, is Stock 2 currently overvalued or undervalued using Jon’s required rate of return?
Stock 2 is currently undervalued using Jon’s required rate of
return because its intrinsic value is more than the current stock
market price.
74350613
06136210 .$..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−+
=−
+=
Return to question.
d. Does Stock 2 meet Jon’s required rate of return?
Yes. Stock 2 has an expected return of 13.82%, which is greater
than Jon’s required rate of return of 13%.
%...).(.
gP
)g(D)r(E 8213138206
32
06136210 ==+=++=
Return to question.
e. Which stock is more appropriate for Jon? Justify your response.
Stock 2 is more appropriate because it is undervalued and it
exceeds Jon’s required rate of return. Without the intrinsic value
analysis, Stock 1 might have been chosen because of its higher
current yield.
Return to question.
30. A growth company paid a dividend of $0.50 per share in the last fiscal year. They estimate increasing the dividend by 15% per year for the next three years, after which it is expected to grow at a constant rate of 8%. The investor’s required return is 12%. What is the intrinsic value of the stock?
Step 1
Year 1 dividend .50 × 1.15 = .575
Year 2 dividend .575 × 1.15 = .6613
Year 3 dividend .6613 × 1.15 = .7604
Module Review 111 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Step 2
53200812
0817604.
..
).(. =−
Step 3
Calculator keystrokes
12 I
0 CF0
.575 CF1
.6613 CF2
.7604 +
20.53
CF3
SHIFT NPV 16.19
Return to question.
31. Larry Jones, a recent college graduate, has a good job, and he feels secure enough about his future to be speculative in his investments. Larry’s required rate of return is 17%. He has been considering the following two issues.
Stock 1 Stock 2
Current dividend $1.00 $1.25
Dividend growth rate 10% 12%
Current market price $20/share $24.50/share
a. Which stock is more appropriate for Larry? Justify your response.
Stock 2 is more appropriate because it is undervalued and it
exceeds Larry’s required rate of return of 17%.
Stock 1 Stock 2
Intrinsic value $15.71 $28
Expected return 15.5% 17.71%
Current market price $20/share $24.50/share
Required return 17% 17% Return to question.
112 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
b. If interest rates decrease, causing the risk-free rate to fall by 3%—therefore causing Larry’s required rate of return to decrease to 14%—would you make the same selection? Why?
Yes, Stock 2 would still be more appropriate because it is even
more undervalued in this case. A relatively small difference in
expected growth rates can have a dramatic effect on valuations in
an environment of declining interest rates.
Stock 1: 50271014
10100110 .$..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−+
=−
+=
Stock 2: 701214
12125110 $..
).(.
gr
)g(DV =
−+
=−
+=
Return to question.
32. Two stocks have been presented for your consideration. The beta of stock A is 1.3, while the beta of stock B is 0.7. The annual growth rates of dividends are 11% and 6%, respectively. The dividend yields are 5% and 7%, respectively.
a. Since stock A offers higher potential growth, should it be purchased? Why?
Just because stock A offers higher potential growth is not a
sufficient reason to buy it. Additional information that would be
required before a purchase is made would include the investor’s
required return, the stock’s intrinsic value, and the stock’s current
market price. In accordance with the efficient market hypothesis,
the higher growth expectations may already be reflected in the
current market price.
Return to question.
b. Since stock B offers a higher dividend yield, should it be purchased? Why?
Just because stock B offers a higher dividend yield is not a
sufficient reason to buy it. Additional information that would be
required before a purchase is made would include the investor’s
required return, the stock’s intrinsic value, and the stock’s current
Module Review 113 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
market price. Stock B’s current yield may be higher, but its lower
expected growth rate may make it a less attractive alternative.
Return to question.
33. Assume that the estimated earnings per share for a stock have been forecast to be $3. The stock’s P/E ratio has ranged from 9 to 12.
a. From the information given, what is the possible price range for the stock?
The possible price range is $27 to $36.
Low: $3 × 9 = $27
High: $3 × 12 = $36
Return to question.
b. If the stock is currently selling for $28.50 and the estimated earnings are $3, what do these values indicate?
The resulting P/E of 9.5 suggests that the stock is selling at a
price that is near its historic low. It may indicate that the stock is a
good buy, provided that earnings continue to grow and the
company’s financial position remains strong.
Return to question.
59.$3
$28.50P/E ==
Return to question.
c. If the appropriate P/E ratio is believed to be 11, is the stock underpriced or overpriced in terms of future earnings? Explain your answer.
If the appropriate P/E ratio is believed to be 11, the stock is
underpriced in terms of future earnings. As those future earnings
are achieved, the price should rise from $28.50 to $33. The stock
should be purchased.
Return to question.
114 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
4–5 Explain the various components of the Investment Policy Statement
(IPS).
34. What is the objective of performance evaluation?
The objective of performance evaluation is to provide an opportunity
to alter an investment strategy to improve portfolio performance.
Performance evaluation measures are used to judge the managers of
portfolios. They also can be used by individual investors to measure
the success of their investment approaches.
Return to question.
35. Investment policy statements (IPS) have now become mainstream in financial planning practices.
a. What are the four basic purposes of an IPS?
Setting objectives—includes risk tolerance and return objectives
Defining the asset allocation policy—includes the asset classes to be used and how diversification will be achieved
Establishing management procedures—guide for selecting and monitoring the investments as well as evaluating the performance
Determining communication procedures—make sure all parties are aware of the process and objectives, and who is responsible for implementation Return to question.
b. What are the major content areas that should be covered in an IPS?
Return requirement
Risk tolerance
Liquidity
Time horizon
Laws and regulations
Taxes
Module Review 115 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Unique preferences and circumstances
Permitted and excluded investments Return to question.
4–6 Explain the characteristics, uses, and limitations of stock
performance measurement indexes.
36. The capital asset pricing model is the basis for the Jensen, Treynor, and Sharpe performance indexes. What does the CAPM specify about the required return on an investment?
The CAPM specifies that the required return on an investment
depends on (1) the return an investor may earn on a risk-free asset
and (2) a risk premium. This is important in performance
measurement because all three approaches measure whether the
portfolio is achieving the risk premium anticipated.
Return to question.
37. Answer each of the following questions on the Jensen performance index.
a. What information does the Jensen index provide about a specific investment or portfolio?
The Jensen performance index determines by how much the
realized return differs from the return required by the CAPM.
Return to question.
b. The Jensen equation can be expressed as follows:
( )[ ]β−+−= fmfp RRRRa
Why is this form of the equation useful in performance evaluation?
This form of the equation is useful because it measures alpha,
which is the difference between the realized return and the risk-
adjusted required return. A portfolio manager’s performance can
be judged relative to the security market line. The numerical value
of a in the equation indicates a superior or inferior performance.
116 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
The absolute numerical values of alpha allow for the ranking of
relative performance, with higher scores indicating better
performances.
Return to question.
c. What does a positive alpha indicate about a portfolio manager’s performance? What does a negative alpha indicate?
A positive alpha indicates that a portfolio manager consistently
does better than the CAPM projections (i.e., the manager
outperformed the market on a risk-adjusted basis). If the
performance is inferior, the alpha is negative. A zero alpha means
that the performance matches the market on a risk-adjusted basis.
Return to question.
d. The Jensen index measures the risk premium in terms of beta. On what assumption is this risk measure based?
Measuring the risk premium in terms of beta is based on an
assumption that the portfolio is well diversified. (A well-diversified
portfolio’s total risk is primarily its systematic risk.) If a portfolio were
not sufficiently diversified, the portfolio’s risk would include both
unsystematic and systematic risk, and the standard deviation of the
portfolio’s returns would be a more appropriate measure of risk.
Return to question.
38. Answer each of the following questions on the Treynor performance index.
a. What limitations are associated with the Treynor index?
The Treynor index does not indicate whether a given portfolio
manager outperformed or underperformed the market. Also, as
with the Jensen index, the Treynor index assumes that the
portfolio is part of a fully diversified portfolio.
Return to question.
b. How can these limitations be overcome?
The Treynor index can be computed for the market to determine
whether the portfolio manager outperformed the market. If the
Module Review 117 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
portfolio in question is not a part of a diversified portfolio
containing other asset classes, then the Sharpe index can be
used instead of the Treynor index.
Return to question.
39. Answer each of the following questions on the Sharpe performance index.
a. In what one way does the Sharpe index formula differ from the Treynor index formula?
The Sharpe performance index formula uses the standard deviation
of the portfolio rather than its beta in the denominator of the equation.
Return to question.
b. Of what significance is this difference?
The significance is that the Sharpe index does not assume that
the portfolio is well diversified.
Return to question.
c. The Sharpe index has a limitation that is the same as a limitation of the Treynor index. What is this limitation, and how is it overcome?
Both the Sharpe and Treynor indexes do not indicate whether a
given portfolio manager outperformed or underperformed the
market. The limitation is overcome by computing the Sharpe index
for the market and comparing the Sharpe index of the portfolio to
that of the market.
Return to question.
40. Is one of the three performance indexes (Jensen, Sharpe, or Treynor) better than the others?
Whether an index is preferred by an investor depends on the
investments being evaluated. The Sharpe performance index
encompasses total risk, and it would seem to be more appropriate if
an investor’s total portfolio is not well diversified. If an investor is
concerned with evaluating the performance of a mutual fund, for
example, and the fund represents the investor’s total risk, the Sharpe
index would be preferred. If the goal is to evaluate how the portfolio
performed relative to the market (alpha) and/or to other portfolios, the
Jensen index would be used. If the investor’s entire portfolio is well
118 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
diversified, then the Treynor index would be appropriate.
Return to question.
4–7 Calculate one or more stock performance measurement indexes for
given portfolio returns and risk.
41. Your client has found a mutual fund that she likes. Performance and risk characteristics of the fund and the market are as shown in the following table. Compute the Treynor index for the fund and for the market, and determine if the fund outperformed the market.
Characteristic Client Fund Market
Excess return (portfolio return minus risk-free rate)
13% 11%
Beta 1.4 1.0
R-squared with market 88% N/A
Treynor index 9.29 11.00
The client’s fund did not outperform the market. The Treynor index for
the market is greater than that same index for the fund.
29941
13.
.
rrT fp
f ==β−
= 001101
11.
.
rrT
fpm ==
β−
=
Return to question.
42. Using both the Sharpe and Treynor performance indexes, indicate which of the two funds shown in the following table has the best risk-adjusted performance. (The risk-free rate is 6%.)
a. Assume that the R2 for Fund A is 85% and that it is 89% for Fund B.
Fund A Fund B
Return 18% 16%
Beta 1.3 1.1
Standard deviation 24 30
Module Review 119 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Fund A has the best risk-adjusted performance as computed by
both the Sharpe and Treynor indexes. The Treynor index can be
used because both funds have a high R2 (greater than 70%).
Return to question.
23931
12.
.
rrT fp
a ==β−
= 09911
10.
.
rrT
fpb ==
β−
=
5024
12.
rrS
a
fpa ==
σ−
= 3330
10.
rrS
b
fpb ==
σ−
=
b. Assume that the R2 for Fund A is 46% and that it is 89% for Fund B. What impact does Fund A’s lower R2 have on the calculations?
The Treynor index cannot be used because the Fund A beta may
be unreliable due to the low R2. Therefore the only index that can
be used in this case is the Sharpe index. Fund A has the best risk-
adjusted performance if the Sharpe index is used.
Return to question.
43. Your client wants you to analyze the funds in the following table based on the information given. Use all three performance evaluation methods. (The risk-free rate is 6%.)
Fund X Fund Y Market Index
Realized return 17% 20% 18%
Beta .72 1.2 1.0
Standard deviation 9 16 15
R2 with market 87 81 N/A
Fund X has better performance statistics than either Fund Y or the
market. Its Sharpe and Treynor indexes are the highest of the three,
and it has a positive alpha.
Return to question.
120 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Fund X Fund Y Market Index
Sharpe 1.22 .88 .80 Treynor 15.28 11.67 12.00 Jensen (alpha) +2.36 –.40 0.00
2219
11.
rrS
x
fpx ==
σ−
= 281572
11.
.
rrT
fpx ==
β−
=
8816
14.
rrS
y
fpy ==
σ−
= 671121
14.
.
rrT
fpy ==
β−
=
8015
12.
rrS
m
fpm ==
σ−
= 001201
12.
.
rrT
fpm ==
β−
=
[ ] 362641417 ..)rr(rra fmfpx +=−=β−+−=
[ ] 40042020 ..)rr(rra fmfpy −=−=β−+−=
4–8 Specify relationships among various indicators of security returns.
44. List the four attributes that preferred indexes should have.
a. relevant and appropriate
b. comprehensive and broad-based
c. investable and capable of being replicated
d. value-weighted (capitalization weighted)
Return to question.
Module Review 121 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
45. The S&P 500 Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are the two most popular averages reported in the financial press and on financial programs on radio and television. Why might the returns on these averages be inappropriate for measuring the performance of an investment portfolio?
These two indexes are most appropriate for measuring the returns of
the large-cap asset class, but they are not appropriate for measuring
the return of a portfolio that may consist of many additional asset
classes. The other asset classes generally will have performance
characteristics that are different from those of large-cap stocks, even if
stocks, in general, are trending in the same direction. Some classes,
such as real estate, foreign securities, and bonds, may be in a totally
different cycle than that of U.S. large-cap stocks. Each asset class
should be measured against an index that is appropriate for that class.
The entire portfolio should be measured on the basis of a weighted
average of the returns for each class. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is also a price-weighted index; value-weighted indexes are
more appropriate, as noted in the comments about preferred indexes in
the “Benchmark Principles” section of the module.
Return to question.
46. Using Table 6 in this module, list the six asset classes in order of decreasing risk (highest risk first), and note any exceptions to the usual risk/return trade-off.
From highest risk to lowest risk, based on standard deviation, the six
asset classes are as follows:
Small-cap stocks
Large-cap stocks
Long-term government bonds
Aaa corporate bonds
Intermediate-term government bonds
U.S. Treasury bills
Note that, based on standard deviation, long-term government bonds are more risky than Aaa corporate bonds. Yet most investors consider
122 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
corporate bonds more risky than government bonds because they have some degree of credit risk. Return to question.
Return to question.
47. How should historical returns be used in investment planning?
Historical returns may help determine what rates of return are reasonable for use in projecting future returns. Straight-line projections of historical returns into the future can result in unrealistic expectations about future returns. Frequently, asset classes that outperform the historical average in one time period underperform the historical average in the subsequent time period. Return to question.
48. Explain how the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) differs from each of the following indexes.
a. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500)
The DJIA is a simple average (price-weighted), while the S&P 500 is a value-weighted index. In a price-weighted indicator, the market value of stock is based on the value of one share, regardless of the number of shares outstanding; in a value-weighted index, stocks with higher prices and more shares outstanding have a greater impact on the index’s value. The DJIA includes only the prices of 30 industrial companies; the S&P 500 has a broad base of 500 stocks that reflect broad sectors of the market, including smaller capitalization stocks as well as blue chips. The DJIA is an absolute number; the S&P 500 is expressed as an index relative to a base year. Return to question.
b. NYSE Composite Index
The DJIA differs from the NYSE Composite Index in the following ways: DJIA is a price-weighted (simple average) indicator, while NYSE is a value-weighted index; there are 30 DJIA industrial stocks versus all the stocks listed on the NYSE; DJIA is an absolute number versus NYSE being an index. Return to question.
Module Review 123 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
c. Value Line Index
The DJIA differs from the Value Line Index in the following ways: DJIA is a price-weighted (simple average) indicator, while Value Line is a geometric average; there are 30 DJIA industrial stocks versus 1,700 stocks representing the NYSE, the American Stock Exchange, and the over-the-counter (OTC) market in the Value Line index. Return to question.
49. What observations can you make about inflation and various asset classes using the data shown in Table 6 (Summary Statistics of Annual Total Returns)?
With long-term inflation at 3.0%, the 3.6% yield on U.S. Treasury bills does not keep the investor much ahead of inflation. U.S. Treasury bonds provide a higher return of almost twice the inflation rate. However, in order to provide substantially better returns than the inflation rate, investing in stocks would have been necessary. The highest return was in small-cap stocks with an 11.9% return; around 9% greater than the inflation rate. The standard deviation, however, on small-cap stocks is 32.5%, about 60% greater than that of large-cap stocks. Large-cap stocks had a return of 9.8%, nearly 7% greater than the inflation rate. Return to question.
4–9 Evaluate the risk-adjusted performances of alternative investment
securities or portfolios to recommend the most appropriate selection
for a given client situation.
50. Assume that you have another fund to recommend to the client in Question 41. Over the same period as the period of the fund that the client likes, the new fund’s excess return was 12% and its beta was 0.95. Would you recommend that your client purchase the fund you like or purchase a market index fund?
631295
12.
.
rrT fp
f ==β−
=
124 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Your fund’s Treynor index exceeds the Treynor indexes of the client’s
fund and the market. You should recommend that the client purchase
your fund instead of an index fund because your fund’s performance,
as measured by the Treynor index, is superior.
Return to question.
51. You have narrowed your choices down to the following three funds.
Fund A Fund B Fund C
Sharpe 0.23 0.55 0.69
Treynor 0.44 0.67 0.51
Jensen (alpha) 1.24 0.96 –0.23
Beta 0.92 0.97 1.02
R-squared 87 82 93
a. Which fund would you choose and why?
Since R-squared is given, this should be looked at first to
determine whether beta is a reliable number. Since the R-
squareds are 70 or higher we can use beta and any formulas that
use beta. This means we can use alpha, which is our first choice
since it is an absolute measure of return. Fund A has the highest
alpha, so we would choose Fund A. If the alphas had not been
given we could then use Treynor, and the fund with the highest
Treynor ratio is Fund B.
Return to question.
b. If the R-squared for all three funds was below 70, what fund would you then choose and why?
If the R-squareds were below 70, that would mean that the betas
given are not reliable, and so formulas using beta would also not
be reliable. This would mean that alpha and Treynor cannot be
used, which leaves Sharpe. The fund with the highest Sharpe ratio
is Fund C, so this is the fund that should be chosen.
Return to question.
52. In the past, Grant Walker, age 37, has invested in individual stocks without much success. He wants to take a moderate risk and hopes to have a
Module Review 125 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
moderate return that is above that of CDs. He is considering the following two funds.
Mutual Fund 1 Mutual Fund 2
Type of fund International S&P 500 index
Current yield 1.4% 2.3%
Five-year compound appreciation
18.4% 12.2%
Beta (S&P 500 index) 1.14 1.00
Standard deviation 26 18
R2 with S&P 500 37% 99%
Which one of the two funds is most appropriate for Grant to invest in at this time?
Fund 2 is more appropriate because Grant wants to achieve a
moderate return with moderate risk. This fund has a lower standard
deviation than fund 1. International funds tend to be very unstable,
whereas index funds generate predictable returns with predictable
risk. The beta of fund 1 cannot be compared directly to the beta of
fund 2 because the coefficient of determination of fund 1 is so low with
respect to that of the S&P 500. Therefore, standard deviation is a
better measure of relative risk of the two funds. Dividing the standard
deviation by the total return to determine the coefficient of variation
yields a CV for fund 1 of 1.31 (26/19.8) and a CV for fund 2 of 1.24
(18/14.5). Select the fund with the lowest CV. Note that the total return
for each fund includes the dividend (current yield). This must be
added to the five-year appreciation to arrive at the figure for the
denominator.
Return to question.
53. Should most portfolios be measured against just one benchmark? Why or why not?
Most portfolios should be measured against a blended, and not just
one, benchmark. Unless a portfolio is composed of just one asset
class (such as entirely in U.S. large-cap stocks) then comparing a
126 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
portfolio comprised of various asset classes against a benchmark
representing just one class does not make sense. The percentages
should be weighted so that the benchmark percentage used matches
the percentage found in the client’s portfolio. For example, if a client’s
portfolio is composed of 25% in U.S. large-cap stocks, then only 25%
of the benchmark being constructed for comparison purposes should
be represented by the S&P 500.
Return to question.
About the Author 127 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
About the Author Jason G. Hovde, CIMA®, CFP®, APMA® is the Senior
Director of Certification and Designation Programs as well
as an Associate Professor of Investments at the College for
Financial Planning. Prior to joining the College, Jason had a
financial planning/investment advisory practice and was a
branch manager for one of the largest independent broker-
dealers in the country. Additionally, he spent several years
with another independent broker-dealer, first as a trader and options principal,
and then as a member of the senior management team. Jason holds two
bachelor’s degrees, one in accounting and the other in behavioral science from
Metropolitan State University of Denver, as well as an MBA in finance and
accounting from Regis University. You can contact Jason at
128 Common Stock Valuation & Performance Measurement © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
References BIRR Portfolio Analysis Inc. <www.birr.com> (December 2006).
Boone, Norman M., and Linda S. Lubitz. Creating an Investment Policy
Statement: San Francisco: FPA Press, 2004.
Dalton, Michael A., James Dalton, Randal R. Cangelosi, et al. Personal
Financial Planning, Theory and Practice. Kaplan Publishing, 2005.
Dow Jones & Company Inc. “Dividends Do Matter.” <http://djindexes.com>
(December 2006).
DRIP Advisor. <www.dripcentral.com> (December 2010).
Gitman, Lawrence J., and Michael D. Joehnke. Fundamentals of Investing.
Boston: Pearson, Addison Valley, 2005.
Hammond, Brett, Leo Kamp, Douglas Fore. “What’s Your Risk-Adjusted Return
Ratio?” TIAA-CREF Asset Management Market Monitor. October 2006.
Ibbotson SBBI 2012 Classic Yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar Inc., 2012.
Ibbotson SBBI 2013 Classic Yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar Inc., 2013.
Mayo, Herbert B. Investments: An Introduction, 9th edition. Mason, OH: South-
Western, 2008.
Morningstar, Inc. Principia Pro. Chicago: Morningstar Inc. September 2007,
2008, 2009.
SmartMoney. <www.smartmoney.com> (November 2009).
Wilson, Jack, and Charles Jones. North Carolina State University, 2007.
Index 129 © 1983, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2002–2015, College for Financial Planning, all rights reserved.
Index A master index covering all modules of this course can be found in the Self-Study
Examination book.
Benchmarks, 61
popular, 62
Dividend discount model (DDM), 14
Dividend growth valuation models, 17
calculation, 19
constant growth, 18
non-constant growth, 25
zero growth, 17
Dividends, 5
basics, 6
distribution dates, 7
importance of, 5
reinvestment plans (DRIPs), 10
reverse split, 10
special, 7
stock dividends, 8
stock repurchases, 12
stock split, 9
Equity valuation, 13
Information ratio (IR), 56
Intrinsic value, 13
Investment policy statement (IPS), 38
minimum content areas, 39
purposes of, 39
Jensen index (alpha), 50, 66
Market indexes, 58
asset class benchmarks, 61
benchmark principles, 58
characteristics of, 58
long-term market statistics, 63
Mutual funds, 67
P/B (price-to-book) ratio, 16
P/E ratio, 15
growth-adjusted (PEG), 15
Portfolio performance evaluation
information ratio (IR), 56
Jensen index (alpha), 50
Sharpe index, 52
Treynor index, 55
PSR (price-to-sales ratio), 15
Return
expected return, 13
required return, 13
Risk and return, 64
Risk-adjusted performance, 65
computing, 66
Securities
performance evaluation, 45
Sharpe index, 52, 66
SWOT analysis, 43
Treynor index, 55, 66