Between China and Russia. Whither Trajectories for Central Asian Countries?
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Between China and Russia Whither trajectories for central asian economies? Julien Vercueil CREE-INALCO Sixth International Scientific Conference « Modernization and Innovative Development of Economic Systems: Challenges, Strategies, Structural Changes » Moscow, October 30-31st, 2014
Transcript of Between China and Russia. Whither Trajectories for Central Asian Countries?
Between China and Russia Whither trajectories for central asian economies?
Julien Vercueil CREE-INALCO
Sixth International Scientific Conference « Modernization and Innovative Development of Economic Systems:
Challenges, Strategies, Structural Changes »
Moscow, October 30-31st, 2014
Focus : external trade
¤ Regional integration ?
¤ Potential evolution of trade with main partners : RUS, CHI, EU ?
¤ Role of energy ?
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
1. A new configuration already visible through trade statistics
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
An heterogeneous region
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
A limited regional trade integration
Source : International Trade Center
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
China has become the main trade partner of the region
Top five trade partners, Central Asian countries, 2013
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
2. New strategies: the example of energy
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
Energy (1) : Diversifying gas routes
Source: Eurasian cities : new realities along the silk road. Washington : The World Bank, 2012.
To Central Russia
To Central Russia
To Central Russia and Ukraine
Turkmenistan- China (2009 A&B)
BTE (2006)
Turkmenistan- Iran (1997-2010)
TAPI project (2 options)
Tajikistan to China project
(2 options)
Transcaspian project
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
Energy (2) : Diversifying oil routes
To Russia
Pipeline Kazakhstan-China (1997-2009)
BTC (2005)
CPC (2001)
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
Exports : often geographically concentrated (not only oil and gas exports)
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
3. Institutional building
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
Improving trade routes : CAREC program
Source : Asian Development Bank (2012)
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
The Russia-Kazakhstan-Belarus Customs Union : which impact ?
¤ An example : non tariff barriers
Before CU Before CU After CU After CU
Source : R. Pomfret (2014) based on CAREC data
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
Whither trajectories : parameters to follow in the future
¤ Political, ethnic and border conflicts in the region
¤ Eurasian Economic Union Development
¤ Chinese demand in Energy
¤ World Energy prices
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
Thank you
e-mail : [email protected]
J.Vercueil / Between China and Russia / Moscow International Conference (University of Peoples Friendship), October 30th, 2014
References : ADB, 2012 : Where to from Here ? Corridor-based Transport Facilitation Arrangements in the CAREC Region. CAREC secretariat, Asian Development Bank, 2012. Pomfret R., 2014 : Global Value-Chains and Connectivity in Developing Asia – With a particular focus on Central and West Asia. Asian Development Bank Seminar, 29/04/2014. World Bank, 2012 : Eurasian cities : new realities along the silk road. Washington : The World Bank, 2012.
