Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China

Atmospheric Environment 36 (2002) 1309–1322

Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organiccompounds in China

Zbigniew Klimonta,*, David G. Streetsb, Shalini Guptab, Janusz Cofalaa,Fu Lixinc, Yoichi Ichikawad

a International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriabArgonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439, USA

cTsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinadCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 2-11-1, Iwado Kita, Komae-shi, Tokyo 201-8511, Japan

Received 23 April 2001; received in revised form 8 October 2001; accepted 17 October 2001

Abstract

Inventories of emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in China are reported for the years

1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2020. For 1990 and 1995, historical activity data were assembled for more than 70 processes

that lead to the release of NMVOC. Appropriate emission factors were developed, based on Western, Asian and

Chinese experience. It is estimated that emissions were 11.1Tg in 1990 and 13.1Tg in 1995, principally from the

combustion of biofuels and coal in small combustors. All emissions are presented at provincial level. Using appropriate

growth factors derived from anticipated economic, population, and lifestyle changes, and factoring in regulatory

changes and technology improvements, we estimate that emissions could grow to 15.6Tg in 2000, 17.2Tg in 2010, and

18.2Tg in 2020. Though activity growth rates are much higher than these increases would imply, technology

improvements mediate the increases. Emissions from solvent use, paint use, and transport become increasingly

important as time goes on. The sectoral distribution and per capita level of China’s emissions are compared with those

of other countries. Finally, gridded NMVOC emission fields are presented at 11� 11 resolution, and speciation of theemissions into 16 chemical types is reported. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Air pollution; Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC); Emission inventory; Emission scenarios; China

provinces

1. Background

Emissions of non-methane volatile organic com-

pounds (NMVOC) in China are important for the

development of an understanding of the formation of

ozone in East Asia. Together with nitrogen oxides

(NOx), NMVOC are the main inputs to atmospheric

chemistry models designed to study the formation and

fate of photochemical oxidants in the atmosphere. We

present here an inventory of anthropogenic NMVOC

emissions in China, about which very little has been

previously reported. Biogenic emissions are also large in

southern China and would need to be considered in any

description of total organic compound releases to the

atmosphere. This inventory was developed to support

two Asian atmospheric modeling programs: a compre-

hensive study of large-scale environmental problems in

East Asia, funded by the Central Research Institute of

Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) of Japan (Amann

et al., 2000); and the China-MAP program, funded by

the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration

(NASA). As part of the China-MAP program, this

represents the third paper in a series, previous papers

having addressed emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, and black

carbon (Streets and Waldhoff, 2000; Streets et al., 2001).*Corresponding author. Fax: +43-2236-807-533.

E-mail address: [email protected] (Z. Klimont).

1352-2310/02/$ - see front matter r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

PII: S 1 3 5 2 - 2 3 1 0 ( 0 1 ) 0 0 5 2 9 - 5

This present paper addresses anthropogenic emissions of

NMVOC in China at provincial level for the period

1990–2020. For 1995 and 2020, emissions are also

spatially distributed into grids. Speciation of total

NMVOC into major chemical constituents is also

presented.

2. Methodology

The emission estimates are developed within the

framework of the RAINS-Asia simulation model (Shah

et al., 2000). The basic concept of the RAINS emission

calculation is to estimate emissions for each of the

source categories distinguished in the model as a product

of the activity rate, the (unabated) emission factor and

the removal efficiency of applied emission control

devices, as described in Klimont et al., 2000:

Ek ¼X

l

Xm

Xn

Ak; l; m efk; l; mð1� Zl; m; nak; l; m; nÞ

� Xk; l; m; n; ð1Þ

where k; l;m; n are province, sector, fuel or activity type,abatement technology; E denotes emissions of

NMVOC; A the activity rate; ef the unabated emission

factor; Z the removal efficiency; a the maximum

application rate; and X the actual application rate of

control technology n1.

2.1. Emission factors for NMVOC

Determination of NMVOC emission factors for each

of the major emitting sectors in China is a daunting task.

There are no reports available that describe process

details for many of the NMVOC-emitting activities.

Therefore, for several categories we have used informa-

tion derived from western sources, but modified appro-

priately to reflect expected differences, today and in the

future, between Chinese and western technology and

practice. To the best of our knowledge, no estimates of

NMVOC emissions in China have been developed by

Chinese researchers.

2.1.1. Emissions related to the use of fossil fuels

Emission factors for stationary sources are derived

from several international studies, e.g., EEA, 1999;

BUWAL, 1995; IFARE, 1998; Klimont et al., 2000

(Table 1). As shown later, the emissions from combus-

tion of coal and biofuels in the residential sector

represent a large proportion of the total, and therefore

the choices of emission factors for these activities will

influence the results substantially. There is little specific

data for Chinese boilers, furnaces and stoves used in the

residential/commercial sector. Zhang et al. (2000)

recently reported measurements of total non-methane

hydrocarbons (TNMHC) emissions (as C) from house-

hold stoves in China, but they cannot be directly

compared with emission rates used in this work. This

is because Zhang et al. (2000) did not report species

profiles and so we do not know what percentage of total

NMVOC they measured is represented by the reported

carbon emissions. The results of measurements carried

out in Europe indicate great variation (this is also

confirmed by Zhang et al. (2000)), depending mainly on

the condition of the installation and operating practices.

The range of reported emission factors varies from 50 to

600 gGJ�1 for coal and from 150 to 800 gGJ�1 for

biofuel installations (EEA, 1999).

NMVOC emission factors for transport sources

(Table 2) are based on the European experience of the

mid-1980s, with no control technology (EEA, 1999).

Emission factors for diesel vehicles were adjusted for

historical years (increased by about 20%) to take into

account the difference in diesel fuel quality used in

China. According to several authors (e.g., Walsh and

Shah, 1997; World Bank, 1997), diesel fuels used in

China have higher aromatic hydrocarbon content and

relatively low cetane values. This results in increased

hydrocarbon, NOx and soot emissions. Same sources

indicate that old fleets of vehicles in China and lack of

enforcement of emission standards lead to very high

emission rates from gasoline vehicles, even 10–20 times

higher than those from modern vehicles. In this study,

however, more modest assumptions are employed based

on the work of Tsinghua University (1997). This has

been done only for the estimation of emissions in 1990,

1995 and 2000. Emission factors for evaporative losses

from cars were derived using assumptions about typical

mileage and fuel consumption, share of vehicles with

carburetor and fuel injection, fuel characteristic, number

of hot soak cycles and diurnal temperature changes. The

method used to estimate these emission factors relies on

the methodology developed at the University of

Thessaloniki (Greece) and is documented in EEA

(1999). Air traffic emissions (only landing and take-

off) are estimated for the major airports using data on

total aircraft movements (compare Section 3.1) and on

emission rates for some European airports.

2.1.2. Evaporative emissions from solvent use

Solvents are used in a wide variety of activities,

including the production and use of paints, cosmetics,

rubber, chemicals, etc., and for cleaning in industry and

households. Much of these solvents subsequently

evaporate into the air. Since it is difficult to derive, at

least for some of these specific activities, reliable

statistics and projections for their future development,

a set of surrogate indicators has been employed.

Such surrogate activity rates include the use of

1Note that the set of control options (n) includes also a ‘no-

control’ case, such that SnX ¼ 1:

Z. Klimont et al. / Atmospheric Environment 36 (2002) 1309–13221310

solvent-containing products, the amount of manufac-

tured goods, the area coated with paint, other process

inputs, or even simply the population in a region.

Activity units and emission factors for solvent use are

presented in Table 3. China-specific information was

used whenever available.

In the industrialized countries, nearly half of

NMVOC emissions from solvent use arises from the

consumption of paint (Klimont et al., 2000). For the

architectural and domestic use of paint, many emission

inventories use emission factors related to per capita

usage or per kilogram paint applied. This study uses

paint consumption as the activity unit for these activities

and for vehicle refinishing and other industrial painting.

The corresponding emission factors assume a certain

average solvent content of the paint, e.g., for decorative

Table 2

NMVOC emission factors for transport sources, gMJ�1

Sector Diesel fuel Gasoline Natural gas

Light-duty vehicles

Four-stroke engines 0.09a/0.22b 0.75a/1.48b 0.65a/0.83b

Two-stroke engines F 2.65a/2.94b FMopeds (two-stroke) F 8.0 FHeavy-duty vehicles 0.19a/0.36b 0.65a/1.41b 0.56a/0.69b

Off-road vehicles 0.19 0.8/10c FShipping 0.06d F FEvaporative emissions from cars F (0.33–0.58)e F

aValues used for estimating emissions in 2010 and 2020.bValues used for estimating emissions in 1990, 1995 and 2000.cEmission factor for two-stroke engines.dEmission factor used also for heavy fuel oil.eEmission factors are province- and year-specific (compare Section 2.1.1).

Table 1

NMVOC emission factors for stationary fuel-related source categories

Sector Activity rate Emission factor

Value Unit

Stationary combustion Hard coal

Existing power plants, industry 15 gGJ�1

New power plants 1.5 gGJ�1

Residential 200 gGJ�1

Heavy fuel oil

Existing power plants, industry 5 gGJ�1

New power plants 3 gGJ�1

Light fuel oil 3 gGJ�1

Gasoline 2 gGJ�1

Natural gas

Power plants, industry 4 gGJ�1


Biofuels

Power plants, industry 48 gGJ�1


Extraction and handling of fossil fuels Oil production and handling 0.6/0.32a g kg�1

RefineriesFprocess Gas production and distribution 0.34/2.6a gm�3

Service stations Input of crude oil 2.34 g kg�1

Transport and depots Distribution of gasoline 64.3 gGJ�1

Distribution of gasoline 70 gGJ�1

Distribution of diesel 1.2 gGJ�1

aEmission rates for production and handling (distribution), respectively.

Z. Klimont et al. / Atmospheric Environment 36 (2002) 1309–1322 1311

paints: conventional solvent-borne paint with 30–70%

solvent content and conventional water-borne wall paint

with 3% solvent content, and a specific application

method, i.e., brushing and rolling for decorative paints

and spraying for vehicle refinishing and industrial

applications. More details on paints used for different

applications and their characteristics can be found in,

e.g., IFARE, 1998; EEA, 1999. For the use of paint in

automobile production, the number of vehicles pro-

duced is used as the activity rate. The emission factor is

based on typical values of uncontrolled application

taking into account the production profile, i.e., types of

vehicles and area coated (IFARE, 1998).

For some industrial sectors, e.g., degreasing opera-

tions and printing, the consumption of solvents and inks

represents the activity rate in the model (Klimont et al.,

2000). Printing is further split into four processes for

which unabated western emission factors are used

(IFARE, 1998). In the case of degreasing it was assumed

that all used solvent is lost in an uncontrolled installa-

tion. For dry cleaning, the total amount of textiles

cleaned represents the activity rate, and the emission

Table 3

Activity units and NMVOC emission factors for solvent use


Value Unit

Paint application

Architectural Paint used 0.34 kg kg�1

Domestic Paint used 0.39 kg kg�1

Vehicle refinishing Paint used 0.85/0.46a kg kg�1

Automobile manufacturing Vehicles produced 10–30b kg vehicle�1

Other industrial Paint used 0.73 kg kg�1

Degreasing operations Solvent used 1/0.8a kg kg�1

Dry cleaning Textiles cleaned 0.125/0.05a kg kg�1

Domestic use of solvents Population 0.15–0.36c kg capita�1

Vehicle treatment Cars registered 1.11d kg vehicle�1

Printing

Packaging Ink used 2.1/0.42a kg kg�1

Offset printing Ink used 0.72/0.45a kg kg�1

Publication Ink used 1.5/0.18a kg kg�1

Screen printing Ink used 0.4/0.36a kg kg�1

Preservation of wood Wood treated 21.56/5.62a kgm�3

Paint production Production 15 kg ton�1

Ink production Production 30 kg ton�1

Asphalt blowing Asphalt produced 0.8 kg ton�1

Synthetic rubber processing Production 15 kg ton�1

Production of tyres Production 0.285 kg tyre�1

Carbon black production Production 90 kg ton�1

Ethylene Production 5 kg ton�1

Low-density polyethylene Production 10 kg ton�1

High-density polyethylene Production 6 kg ton�1

Propylene Production 5 kg ton�1

Polypropylene Production 8 kg ton�1

Polyvinylchloride production Production 3 kg ton�1

Vinyl chloride Production 2.5 kg ton�1

Storage of organic chemicals Total productione 10 kg ton�1

Polyvinylchloride processing Production 40 kg ton�1

Textile industry Productionf 10 kg ton�1

aValues for existing and new installations, respectively.bDepends on the proportion of passenger cars and trucks.cEmission factors take into account regional differences (see Section 2.1.2) and it is assumed that they increase in the future to 1 and

1.5 kg capita�1 for rural and urban population, respectively.dUsed for 1990, 1995, 2000 and then slowly declining to about 0.1 kg vehicle�1 in 2030.eRefers to the total production of organic chemicals included in the inventory.f Includes production of wool, silk and cotton.


rates are characteristic for open-circuit machines

(IFARE, 1998).

For wood preservation, the volume of wood treated is

used, typically about 35% of industrial round-wood is

processed and only a few percent is treated. In order to

derive emission factors for typical applications, esti-

mates were made of the method and share of different

preservatives used, i.e., creosote, solvent- and water-

based. It was also assumed that current practices would

change in the future (less use of creosote and increased

share of water-based preservatives), resulting in a lower

emission factor in future years.

For calculating historical NMVOC emissions from

the production of paint, glues, synthetic rubber, tyres

and processing of PVC the amount of manufactured

product is used as the explanatory variable. Emission

factors are based on European experience (EEA, 1999;

EC, 1994).

Another important source of NMVOC emissions is

the domestic use of solvents (other than paints), which is

estimated to contribute 3–6% to total anthropogenic

emissions in Europe in 1990 (Klimont et al., 2000). It is

expected that in China the per-capita emissions are

lower but owing to the relatively small contribution of

other sectors like transportation, we estimate its share in

total Chinese emissions in the 90’s at about 2%. This

category comprises a wide range of articles used in

households, e.g., household and personal care products,

adhesives and glues, automotive care and maintenance

products. Due to the absence of detailed information, a

simple approach based on per-capita emission factors is

applied (Table 3). These emission factors were derived

from information contained in national (Passant and

Vincent, 1998; ERM, 1996) and regional (Umweltmi-

nisterium Baden-W .urttemberg, 1993) inventories for

developed countries and were modified to account for

the different situation in China. The specific emission

rates for China were developed based on expert

judgement on the relative importance of product groups

(body care, hair spray, automotive and household

cleaning) consumed, distinguishing between different

consumption patterns in urban and rural areas.

2.1.3. Organic and inorganic chemical industry

In Europe, the manufacturing, storage and handling

of more than 20 different products in the organic

chemicals industry contribute about 2.4% to total

NMVOC emissions (Klimont et al., 2000). Another

0.7% arises from production processes in the inorganic

chemical industry, e.g., carbon black. In this work,

emissions from the manufacturing and handling of

ethylene, low- and high-density polyethylene, propylene,

polypropylene, vinyl chloride, polyvinylchloride, and

carbon black are estimated for Chinese provinces. The

emission factors (Table 3) are derived from several

Western European studies (BUWAL, 1995; EEA, 1999;

ERM, 1996; EC, 1994; IFARE, 1998). In the context of

a regional analysis and considering that it is not possible

to obtain consistent long-term forecasts for manufactur-

ing of specific chemicals, it does not seem worthwhile to

distinguish all the individual processes to estimate future

emission levels, but to treat them on an aggregated level.

A problem arises, however, when determining the

appropriate emission factor related to the aggregated

activity level for these processes. It was decided to use

the emissions for 1995 as the activity rate and let

emissions change over time according to different rates

of economic development, taking into account the

envisaged technological improvements resulting in, inter

alia, lower emission rates per unit of product. A similar

approach was used for projecting activities in some

other sectors, i.e., production of paint, glue, rubber,

tires, and miscellaneous sources addressed in Section

2.1.4.

2.1.4. Miscellaneous sources

The source categories discussed above leave out a

number of other activities that generate NMVOC

emissions. These activities are responsible for more than

6% of anthropogenic NMVOC emissions in 1990 in

Europe. They comprise a wide spectrum of activities,

ranging from agriculture and food industry to waste

treatment, road paving with asphalt, pulp and paper,

textile and heavy industry (coke oven, iron and steel,

etc.). Emission factors (Table 4) originate mostly from

European studies (EC, 1994; Umweltministerium Ba-

den-W .urttemberg, 1993; EEA, 1999; IFARE, 1998).

3. Compilation of the activity database

When estimating NMVOC emissions, it is important

to carefully define appropriate activity units that are

detailed enough to provide meaningful surrogate in-

dicators for actual operations of a variety of different

technical processes and yet aggregated enough to make

it possible to project their future development with a

reasonable set of generalized assumptions. Considering

the data availability for China and drawing on the

experience from the work carried out for Europe

(Klimont et al., 2000), we used more disaggregated

activity data to prepare inventories for historical

periods, i.e., 1990 and 1995, than for the future years.

3.1. Data sources

The major categories of data and their sources for

1990 and 1995 are summarized below.

* Population statisticsFUN (1998a, b), SSB (1990,

1991, 1996, 1998b);


* vehicles in use, annual sales, production statis-

ticsFMVMA (1992), AAMA (1998), UN (1999),

SSB (1991, 1996);* energy statistics (e.g., SSB, 1998a; Shah et al., 2000;

PennWell, 1991, 1996; USDOE, 1991, 1996);* data on domestic production of gas and oil are based

on SSB (1991, 1996). Data on handling of oil at the

terminals originate from shipping statistics (SSY,

1991–1997);* data on paint use are derived from Zhu and Liu

(1996) and later distributed by province and sector

based on expert judgment and experience from

Europe and US;* statistics on the manufacture of various organic

chemicals, as well as carbon black, were collected

from SSB (1991, 1996), UN (1996), C&EN (1993,

1997). Some of the gaps in data for 1990 and 1995

were filled by establishing relations between produc-

tion of various substances in other Asian countries

for which detailed data were available;* data on the activities of several industries, i.e.,

manufacturing of paint, ink, rubber, tires, textiles,

etc., originate from SSB (1990, 1991, 1996), UN

(1996), C&EN (1993, 1997), Zhu and Liu (1996);* production of coke, steel, asphalt, etc., is derived

from SSB (1991), UN (1996), USGS (1994, 1997);* bread and alcohol production originates from SSB

(1990, 1991, 1996), UN (1996, 1999);* data on industrial round-wood originate from FAO

(1995, 1997), UN (1999), SSB (1991, 1996, 1998).

Additional sources were used to fill gaps in data for

the pulp and paper industry (UN, 1996);* information about the amounts of domestic and

industrial waste landfilled or incinerated was col-

lected from SSB (1991, 1996);

* data on the emissions of NMVOC from air traffic

have not been found, but are based on statistical

information (aircraft movements) for the largest

airports [www.airports.org], and data on emission

rates for some European airports;* data on the burning of agricultural waste are derived

from crop production statistics (USDA, 1998) that

were transformed into total residues, using crop/

residue ratios from Lu (1993). It has been estimated

that B23% of total residues are combusted as a

means of disposal in China (Crutzen and Andreae,

1990).

This study aims at providing a complete picture of

anthropogenic emissions of NMVOC in China. How-

ever, the activity data for some of the important

emission categories are either missing or very difficult

to obtain. In order to provide first estimates of

emissions, activity data for some of these categories

were derived based on expert knowledge. For domestic

solvent use, dry cleaning and application of glue in

industry, the information available for Western Europe,

Eastern Europe, United States and Canada, as well as

discussions with Chinese experts, has been used to derive

the relevant relationships. For degreasing and printing,

solvent consumption was derived from analysis of the

relation between the emissions and the value added in

the manufacturing industry in Western Europe (assum-

ing a no-control situation). The regional distribution of

emissions from degreasing is based on the industrial

GDP and for printing on the GDP of small enterprises.

No information on the pharmaceutical industry was

found and consequently no estimate is provided;

however, it is believed that this sector is a minor source

of NMVOC emissions in China.

Table 4

Activity units and NMVOC emission factors for other sources


Value Unit

Bread production Production 4.5 kg ton�1

Beer production Production 0.2 kgm�3

Spirits production Production 20 kgm�3

Coke oven Coke production 1.44 kg ton�1

Steel production Production 0.055 kg ton�1

Rolling mills Production 0.25 kg ton�1

Asphalt production Production 1.25 kg ton�1

Pulp and paper Paper pulp production 3.5 kg ton�1

Waste disposal

Landfills Amount of waste 0.23 kg ton�1

Incineration Amount of waste 0.74/7.4a kg ton�1

Agricultural waste burning Crop residues 8.5 kg ton�1

aDomestic and industrial waste, respectively. It is assumed that in the future more waste will be incinerated, but since many

incinerators are in urban areas the emission rate will decline as a result of stricter regulation to about 0.1 kg ton�1.


http://www.airports.org

3.2. Forecast of future activity levels

The methodology developed for this study estimates

emissions for future years by modifying the present

activity levels according to exogenously provided

projections, e.g., for the year 2020. As a matter of fact,

reliable and consistent projections of future activity rates

at the process level are rarely available; most economic

long-term forecasts restrict themselves to a rather

aggregated level of economic activities and rarely specify

even the development of the main economic sectors.

Therefore, a key question is which generally available

long-term forecasts (such as energy projections, sectoral

GDP development, etc.) could be used to derive the

temporal changes of the activity rates employed for the

emission calculation. In this study, three concepts for

constructing forecasts of sectoral activity rates are

applied:

* The change of the activity rates for processing,

distribution and combustion of fossil fuels is linked

to changes in fuel consumption provided by the

energy scenario inputs to the RAINS-Asia model.* Some other activity rates (dry cleaning, use of

solvents in households, paint use, food and drink

industry) are assumed to be proportional to popula-

tion development, taking into account differences

between urban and rural areas and considering

changes in GDP per capita, which affects lifestyles

and hence usage.* The temporal development of a number of industrial

activities (e.g., degreasing, paint use, solvent use in

various industries, heavy industry, pulp and paper,

etc.) is related to changes in the national and sectoral

GDP. Western and recent Eastern European experi-

ence suggests that the emissions from these activities

grow slower than the value-added. To reflect this

trend, sector-specific elasticities derived from statis-

tics are applied. The general equation for estimating

future activities for these sectors can be written as:

actt1 ¼ actt0dvt1

dvt0

� �d

; ð2Þ

where t0; t1 are time periods, e.g., t0 ¼ 1995 and t1 ¼2000; act activity in a sector, e.g., use of paint; dv the

driving variable, e.g., GDP, sectoral value added,

population; d the sector specific elasticity (derived

mostly from the European data).

Information necessary to develop these forecasts

originates, inter alia, from population forecasts (UN,

1998a, b), general trends in several industries that will

influence emissions of NMVOC (e.g., OECD, 1999), as

well as assumptions about sectoral GDP growth

included in the RAINS-Asia study (Shah et al., 2000).

Additionally, the relationships of the growth rates of

individual economic sectors to both population and

GDP growth assumed in the ‘Reference’ and ‘Our

Common Future’ scenarios in the study of Duchin and

Lange (1994) were considered.

It was assumed that the average annual growth rate of

national GDP was 6.3%, of the chemical industry 7.1%,

and of other industry 5.8%. The growth rates are

averaged over the period from 1995 to 2020. The

forecasts of other major parameters that determine the

activity levels in specific sectors are given in Table 5.

A further important consideration is how regulations

for the control of emissions might develop in the future.

We cannot expect that China will ignore technology

availability when economic development has progressed

to the point where such advanced technologies can be

afforded, are demanded by the consumer, or are

Table 5

Assumed changes in the major activity parameters used in the estimation of NMVOC emissions for China

Sector Unit 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020

Population Million 1146 1209 1264 1352 1434

Domestic oil production 106 tons crude 138 150 150 150 150

Domestic gas production 106m3 15 18 18 18 18

Energy consumption

Coal PJ 21,493 28,085 33,532 38,217 42,732

Oil PJ 4592 6484 8655 12,034 15,835

Gas PJ 1049 1898 1959 4860 7992

Hydro PJ 812 1784 1742 3039 4743

Nuclear PJ 0 122 147 1113 2228

Other (includes biofuel) PJ 8671 9089 8550 8170 8995

Vehicle manufacturing 106 vehicles 0.5 1.5 5.5 13.7 21.8

Paint production 103 tons paint 1062 1711 2417 3382 4524

Paint use 103 tons paint 1114 1722 2735 4606 6526

Industrial wood 106m3 92 96 101 112 124

Textiles cleaned 103 tons 173 207 440 907 1373


necessary to prevent deterioration of the environment.

One good example of this is vehicle emissions perfor-

mance. We assume that the equivalent of EURO1 and

EURO2 emission standards for both gasoline and diesel

vehicles will be the standard for new vehicles in China

after 2000. Generally, though, other sources of NMVOC

are expected to remain uncontrolled throughout the

period of this study. The exception is Hong Kong, for

which we assume EURO1 and EURO2 standards after

1995 as well as introduction of carbon canisters on cars

and oxidation catalysts for two-wheelers. Evaporative

losses from several industries, e.g. refineries, chemical

industry, etc. and gasoline distribution are also assumed

to be controlled in Hong Kong.

4. Emissions of NMVOC

Estimates for emissions of NMVOC in 1990 and 1995

as well as a projection extending to 2020 are presented in

Table 6. The results take into account information on

expected regulatory developments. Due to a lack of

reliable information some of the activities could not be

estimated. These include the pharmaceutical industry,

production of glues and the production and processing

of some organic chemicals. Based on European experi-

ence these sources typically represent not more than a

few percent of total NMVOC emissions (Klimont et al.,

2000). Additionally, emissions from air traffic include

only major airports, which may lead to a slight

underestimation of this source.

4.1. Discussion of results

By 2020, emissions of NMVOC in China are projected

to increase by about 64% compared to 1990, in spite of

controls on motor vehicles and a decline in the emissions

from stationary combustion. The overall emissions

increase is driven mainly by rapid growth in the use of

personal transport and solvents in China. In the 1990s,

China’s vehicle population was relatively small; there-

fore vehicles, although not controlled and fairly old, did

not have a major share in total NMVOC. Following an

expected growth in fuel use and vehicle ownership

emissions of NMVOC from this sector are expected to

grow rapidly. As the demand for liquid fuel grows, the

importance of NMVOC losses from processing and

distribution also increases rapidly (three-fold). An

anticipated lack of stringent legislation constraining

the emissions of organic compounds in Chinese indus-

try, coupled with assumed relatively high growth rates

for chemicals and solvent use, results in a growing share

of these sectors in total emissions in the future. Their

share grows from 12% in 1990 to 35% in 2020,

becoming the largest source of NMVOC in China.

The share of NMVOC emissions from solid fuel

combustion in the power sector and industry is low and

declines from 2.6% in 1990 to 2.1% in 2020. Typically,

also residential combustion does not take a major share;

however, the situation in China is different. China’s high

consumption of coal and biofuels is responsible for this.

Nearly 50% of total 1990 anthropogenic NMVOC

emissions originates from residential combustion sector,

mainly from the combustion of biofuels in rural stoves

and cookers. Although the consumption of wood and

agricultural residues decreases towards 2020, it remains

an important source representing 23% of total

NMVOC, which is more than the emissions from

transport in 2020 in the scenario presented.

There are only three other studies of NMVOC

emissions in China, against which these results can be

compared. An early study by Piccot et al. (1992)

estimated 1985 NMVOC emissions in mainland China

to be 5.3Tg. This was part of a global inventory

compilation, and it is not clear how much attention was

given to the special characteristics of China’s emitting

Table 6

Emissions of NMVOC by sector in China, Gg

Sector 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020

Stationary combustiona 5804 5509 5225 5004 4557

Extraction, processing and handling of fossil fuels 517 707 924 1293 1755

Chemical industryb 78 134 206 369 528

Solvent use (excluding paint use)c 580 761 1245 2059 2828

Paint usec 640 1031 1472 2235 3039

Transport 2317 3567 5071 4495 3559

Waste disposal 868 889 880 860 837

Miscellaneous 302 521 611 896 1106

Total 11,105 13,120 15,634 17,211 18,209

a Industrial and residential sources (including biofuel).bOrganic and inorganic chemical industry.c Includes industrial and domestic use.


sources. Even though China’s NMVOC emissions were

undoubtedly growing quickly in the 1980s and 1990s, the

Piccot estimate still seems low compared to our 1990

estimate of 11.1Tg. We believe that our work is more

reliable than that of Piccot because of the inclusion of

more source types, the greater attention to China-

specific source types, and the recent availability of

improved emission factors. The EDGAR inventory

(Olivier et al., 1996) includes an estimate of 17.7Tg for

1990 for a region called China+, which includes

Mongolia, North Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and several

other smaller countries. This incompatibility of geogra-

phical coverage makes direct comparison impossible.

Finally, Tonooka et al. (2001) have estimated 13.9Tg

for China in 1994, which is close to our estimate of

13.1Tg for 1995. However, comparison of the two

studies reveals significant differences at the sector level.

These differences have been found to be largely due to

choices of emission factors, and reconciliation and

harmonization between these two studies is in progress.

We also compared the structure of China’s NMVOC

emissions with those of some other countries and world

regions (Fig. 1). Although there are distinct differences

in the emission structure in the 1990s, the long-term

trends seem to be similar; emissions from solvents and

chemical industry take the largest share in 2020 and the

share of transport declines in the discussed period. The

latter feature is a clear sign of the role that legislation

plays in the forecasted change. It is especially visible in

Western Europe where the high level of motorization

but only moderate control led to a very high contribu-

tion of transport to total emissions in 1990 (about 50%)

that declines to o20% by 2020. The change for China

and Eastern Europe is not so dramatic since the

forecasted growth of this sector offsets to a large extent

the regulatory efforts. Japan is different from the other

regions as not much change is expected since strict

emission standards for the majority of activities were

already in place in the 1990s.

Comparing per capita NMVOC emissions in China

with those of other countries and world regions (Table

7) reveals great differences, especially in 1990 and 1995.

The differences reflect quite well the level of economic

development as well as the presence of stringent

legislation. By 2020, per capita emissions in China are

projected to increase by about 30%. One of the fastest

growing sectors is transport but it is assumed that it will

be controlled to a large extent and therefore the increase

in emissions is not that substantial. This is similar to the

situation in some of the less developed Eastern

European countries. Republic of Korea and Taiwan

have fairly high per capita rates which reflects their fast

economic growth in the 80’s and 90’s but also lack of

sufficient controls. This compares well with a group of

Eastern European countries that, although they have

not experienced such rapid economic growth in that

period, were characterized by a relatively high level of

motorization. Introduction of control options, especially

for traffic, results in a moderate growth or even

reduction of the per capita emission rates by 2020 in

both regions in spite of the continuing economic growth.

In Japan, per capita emissions decline in the same period

Fig. 1. Changes in the structure of NMVOC emissions in selected countries and regions. Note: Data for Japan originate from Amann

et al. (2000), for Eastern and Western Europe from Cofala et al. (2000).


following the implementation of further controls on

stationary sources. A similar trend is observed in

Western Europe although the level in the 1990s was

substantially higher owing to less stringent vehicle

standards.

5. Spatial distribution and speciation of emissions

Table 8 presents the provincial distribution of

NMVOC. Provinces in which population, industry and

transport are expected to grow rapidly show the greatest

Table 7

Comparison of per capita NMVOC emissions in several countries and regions, kg capita�1

Region 1990 1995 2020 Population growth from 1990 to 2020 (%)

China 10 11 13 +25

Japana 17 16 14 0

Korea, Republic of a 20 26 27 +19

Taiwan, Chinaa 32 32 27 +12

Western Europeb 30–60 12–18 +5

Eastern Europeb B10c/(20–35) B12c/(15–25) �1

aData originates from Amann et al. (2000).bData originates from Cofala et al. (2000).cLess developed East European countries.

Table 8

NMVOC emissions in China by province, Gg

Province Year

1990 1995 2000 2010 2020

Anhui 356 409 481 535 600

Beijing 204 297 395 340 353

Fujian 299 322 375 458 464

Gansu 163 192 228 249 283

Guangdong 625 886 1248 1450 1361

Guangxi 360 405 471 542 589

Guizhou 294 332 374 397 429

Hainan 59 97 146 193 162

Hebei 594 700 825 905 910

Heilongjiang 529 611 698 747 828

Henan 601 677 786 881 960

Hong Kong 100 113 109 103 109

Hubei 573 657 750 842 915

Hunan 521 589 664 716 749

Jiangsu 755 822 974 1098 1150

Jiangxi 333 372 419 462 493

Jilin 334 385 434 468 510

Liaoning 594 719 894 915 960

Nei Mongol 242 265 299 339 352

Ningxia 49 53 62 66 72

Qinghai 35 41 48 52 52

Shaanxi 245 286 333 362 384

Shandong 771 975 1165 1289 1357

Shanghai 184 272 386 419 488

Shanxi 232 322 392 495 578

Sichuan 988 1044 1152 1260 1397

Tianjin 142 187 257 256 255

Xinjiang 161 202 237 260 273

Xizang 14 17 19 20 21

Yunnan 361 410 475 496 529

Zhejiang 388 463 538 597 626

Total 11,105 13,120 15,634 17,211 18,209


increases during the time period of the study. For

example, emissions in Guangdong and Shanghai are

projected to more than double between 1990 and 2020.

Emissions in less-developed provinces, such as Guizhou

and Jiangxi, grow more modestly.

The spatial distribution of NMVOC emissions in 1995

is presented in Fig. 2 at 11� 11 resolution. Lacking

detailed information on the spatial pattern of sector-

specific activities, the regional emissions were distributed

into grids based on the population density map that was

created using data on population of counties and cities

(location of cities above 100,000 inhabitants was

considered). This simplified approach introduces some

uncertainty to the spatial distribution of emissions in

a province and might potentially lead to overestimation

of emissions in highly urbanized grids. The highest

emission density is observed in Shanghai, with a value of

250Gg/grid cell. This is consistent with Shanghai’s

present-day concentration of industrial and transport

activity. In the rest of China, the low level of vehicle

ownership in 1995 and the relatively low level of high-

tech industries that produce chemicals and use solvents

lead to a less-dense distribution of emissions, with no

grid cell >150Gg. China’s emission landscape in 2020

looks quite different from that observed in the 90’s

(Fig. 2). There are several grids where emissions exceed

150Gg NMVOC (the cities of Beijing, Guangzhou,

Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Tianjin, for example)

with the highest density estimated for Shanghai (450Gg/

grid). Many grid cells along the East and South coast of

China increase their emissions by a factor of two to

three, especially in the Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu,

Shanghai, and Guangdong provinces.

We have also conducted a speciation of the NMVOC

emissions. For this task we apportioned the NMVOC

emissions into 78 separate source categories, distinguish-

ing, for example, between the production of seven

different kinds of organic chemicals that have very

different chemical releases. We then used US EPA’s

SPECIATE data base (USEPA, 2000) to allocate

Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of NMVOC emissions in China in 1995 and 2020, kt/grid.


emissions into 16 chemical species categories, selected

on the basis of reactivity and similarity (see Middleton

et al., 1990). Occasionally, we used EEA (1999)

speciation factors, and in the important category of

biofuel combustion in residential stoves, we used

results from a measurement program in Manila

(Smith et al., 1992). An implicit assumption is that

the organic compounds emitted in China from a

particular activity are similar in constituency to those

emitted from similar activities in the West. Table 9

shows the speciation results for each of the eight

major source categories for the year 2000. We believe

that these results are more representative for Chinese

emissions than speciation presented in the global

inventory by Piccot et al. (1992). Of course, apart from

more detailed estimates of sectoral emissions and use of

more recent information on sector-specific species

profiles, the observed difference is also due to the

economic growth that occurred between 1985 and 2000.

We find that alkanes contributed 32% of the total,

mainly from fossil-fuel extraction, processing, and

distribution; stationary source combustion; and trans-

port. Alkenes and acetylene contributed 28%, with

biofuel combustion, transport, and waste disposal

dominant. Aromatic compounds contributed 22%,

primarily from transport and solvent and paint use.

The corresponding values from Piccot et al. (1992) were

43%, 34%, and 21%.

6. Conclusions

We conclude that NMVOC emissions in China are

large in absolute terms, but presently rather low on a per

capita basis, compared with other countries. As China

develops further, it can be expected that the activity

levels causing release of NMVOC will increase fast.

These include personal transport, the use of solvents in

industry and the home, the use of paints, and the

production of organic chemicals. Without a commensu-

rate lowering of emission rates, through regulatory

intervention and/or the improvement of technology

performance, emission growth will be rapid. Even when

we factor in reasonable expectations of improvements in

emission rates, we still project that NMVOC emissions

in China will increase from 11.1Tg in 1990 to 18.2Tg in

2020. The dominant source categories transition from

stationary fuel combustion (primarily the use of coal

and biofuels in small, inefficient stoves and cookers) to

those source categories more typical of developed

economies: transport, solvent use, paint use, the

chemical industry, and the extraction and handling of

petroleum products. If China is to avoid a worsening of

ozone levels, it will be prudent to take steps to curtail

NMVOC emissions through good housekeeping prac-

tices aimed at limiting solvent evaporation, to improve

the efficiency of combustion in small sources, and to

promote technology with lower NMVOC emission rates.

Table 9

Speciation of NMVOC emissions in Chinaa in the year 2000, Gg

Chemical

species

Stationary

combustion

Extraction

and

processing

Chemical

industry

Solvent

use

Paint

use

Transport Waste

disposal

Miscella-

neous

Total Percent

of total

Ethane 626 63 1 3 0 85 99 39 915 5.9

Propane 177 142 7 8 0 263 28 9 634 4.1

Butanes 103 142 7 79 0 543 7 9 890 5.7

Other alkanes 208 394 6 135 370 1327 19 39 2498 16.0

Ethene 973 0 23 0 0 416 199 121 1732 11.1

Propene 371 10 8 0 0 171 74 10 643 4.1

Other alkenes 669 27 5 10 3 316 125 10 1165 7.5

Acetylene 553 0 48 0 0 220 88 5 914 5.8

Benzene 483 8 0 2 0 73 90 67 722 4.6

Toluene 239 23 0 83 530 286 35 6 1202 7.7

Other aromatics 427 61 10 109 126 797 46 0 1576 10.1

Formaldehyde 37 49 0 3 0 80 6 0 175 1.1

Other aldehydes 181 0 4 11 0 45 37 0 279 1.8

Ketones 2 0 2 40 106 0 0 0 151 1.0

Halocarbons 0 0 12 163 3 0 2 13 193 1.2

Other species 175 5 73 600 336 440 37 271 1937 12.4

Total 5226 923 206 1245 1473 5064 893 599 15,628 100.0

a Including Hong Kong but excluding Taiwan, China.

Note: Slight differences between this table and Table 6 are due to rounding errors in partitioning of emissions into species

categories at the individual source level.


Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the help of

Stephanie Waldhoff and Nancy Tsai of Argonne

National Laboratory in the early stages of the inventory

development and with data handling. This work was

partly funded by the Central Research Institute of

Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo, Japan. It was

also partly funded by the US National Aeronautics and

Space Administration, under interagency agreement S-

92591-F with the US Department of Energy.

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