INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN INDONESIADALAM ERA PASAR AEC 2015: PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN

Dr. Ir. Arief Daryanto, M.Ec.

Direktur, Program Pascasarjana Manajemen dan Bisnis IPB (MB-IPB)

Seminar Nasional Membangun Perunggasan Indonesia yang Berdayasaingdan Berkelanjutan dalam Era AEC , Auditorium Fapet UGM Yogyakarta,

15 November 2014

Presentation Outline

IntroductoryRemarks Konteks Persaingan:ASEANEconomicCommunity(AEC)2015

Faktor Penentu Industri Perunggasan diEraGlobal

Tantangan dan Peluang Industri Perunggasan diEraAEC2015

Strategi Menghadapi Persaingan diEraAEC2015 ConcludingRemarks

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

Intheglobalindustries:thefittest*(andtheintelligent)havesurvived.

*thefittestmeanshavingastrongbalancesheet

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

KONTEKS PERSAINGAN: ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015

Figure 1. Regional Economic Integration

Processwherebycountriesinageographicregioncooperatetoeitherreduceoreliminatebarrierstothefreeflowofproducts,people,orcapital

Source:WildandWild,2013

Table 1. Levels of Regional Integration

Coordinateaspectsofmemberseconomicandpoliticalsystems

PoliticalUnion

Removebarrierstotrade,labor,andcapital,setacommontradepolicyagainstnonmembers,andcoordinatememberseconomicpolicies

EconomicUnion

Removeallbarrierstotrade,labor,andcapitalamongmembers,andsetacommontradepolicyagainstnonmembers

CommonMarket

Removeallbarrierstotradeamongmembers&setacommontradepolicyagainstnonmembers

CustomsUnion

Removeallbarrierstotradeamongmembers,buteachcountryhasownpoliciesfornonmembers

FreeTradeArea

Source:WildandWild,2013

Table 2. Effects of Integration

Potentialbenefits

Potentialdrawbacks

Tradediversion

Shiftsinemployment

Lossofsovereignty

Tradecreation

Greaterconsensus

Politicalcooperation

Createsjobs

Source:WildandWild,2013

Figure 2. AEC Scorecard

Table 3. The Ten ASEAN Member Countries(Competitive markets of over 600 million people)

GDPpercapita(US$): 2011 2012

1. BruneiDarussalam 50,790 50,0002. Indonesia 6,728 4,7003. Malaysia 13,385 15,8004. Philippines 3,383 4,1005. Singapore 49,754 60,5006. Thailand 7,907 9,5007. Cambodia 1,818 2,2008. LaoPDR 2,054 2,7009. Myanmar 1,040 1,30010. Vietnam 2,589 3,400Source:CIAWorldFactBook(2013)

10

FrameworkofAnalysis

WantedRICH ASEAN:Resilient,Inclusive,CompetitiveandHarmoniousASEAN

NotAFTA:AgreeFirstTalkAfter

FAKTOR PENENTU INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN DALAM ERA GLOBAL

Permintaankomoditas dan produk peternakan terusmeningkatPertumbuhanpenduduk,pertumbuhanpendapatan,semakinbanyaknyapendudukkelasmenengah,urbanisasi,harapanhidupsemakinbesardanpendudukusiatua

Diversifikasimenujuproduksikomoditasbernilaitinggi(highvalueproduction) Revolusi Peternakan dan Revolusi Putih

Polapengeluaranmakananyangbergeser daribijibijiandanmakananpokokkesayurmayur,buah,daging,susu,telurdanikan

Pergeseran selera dari daging merah ke daging putih Harga komoditas dan produk unggas yangpalingmurah

dibandingkan dengan daging lainnya

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (1)

Permintaan terhadap makanan siap masak dan siapsaji semakin meningkat

Pertumbuhan yangpesat supermarket,hypermarketdan QSRs(quickservicerestaurants)

Kebijakan pemerintah terkait keamanan pangan (foodsafety)

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (2)

Perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi Investasi pertanian yangmenurun dan salah alokasi (under

investmentandmisinvestmentphenomenon)

Industrialisasi dan scalingup(konsolidasi usaha) Economiesofscale

Peningkatan nilai tambah Integrasi vertikal Integrasi vertikalModel Contractfarmingdan Growout Konversi lahan,degradasi lahan,erosi tanah dan kelangkaan air Keterbatasan infrastruktur dan logistik Sumberdaya alam yangterbatas (FCRsunggas lebih rendah) Perubahan iklim

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Penawaran

Liberalisasi perdagangan

Stabilisasi dan penyesuaian struktural

Kebijakan makro,perdagangan dan sektoral

Kebijakan subsidi dinegera maju,khususnya dinegaranegara OECD

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Kebijakan

Gambar 3. Kompleksitas (Tali Temali) Faktor Penentu Daya Saing Pertanian

DayaSaingPertanian

LahanPertanian Produksi(output/ha) ManajemenUsahatani HargaInputUsahatani Cuaca HamadanPenyakit

FaktorPenawaran

Pakan Pangan Biofuels IndustriPengolahan

FaktorPermintaan

Kebijakan Perdagangan Kebijakan Pertanian Kebijakan Biofuel/Energi Regulasi Keamanan Pangan Kriteria Berkelanjutan

Kebijakan

Aktivitas Pembiayaan Nilai Tukar Tarif Angkutan Harga Minyak Mentah Spesifikasi Teknis Spekulasi dan Sentimen Pasar Masuknya Pasar Baru NonAgri

FaktorfaktorLainnya

Permintaan yangmeningkat :9milyar orangPerubahan pola makanDietyanglebih baikPenggunaan biofuel

Kapasitas yangmenurun :Berkurangnyalahan/berkurangnya lahan yangbaik

Perubahan iklim

Sumber:DavidGreen,GreenhouseCommunications,Virginiadan EconomistMagazine,2011

Gambar 4. Tantangan Utama: Produksi Lebih Banyak DenganSedikit Input

Source:Rabobank,2012

Gambar 5. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption Growth with Per Capita GDP in Selected Countries 2011/2012

Source:Rabobank,2013

Figure 6. Rising Income Changes Consumption Pattern

Figure 7. Meat Production and Real Prices Trends

Source:MeatAtlas,2014

Figure 8. Worldwide Meat Production

Source:MeatAtlas,2014

Figure 9. Demand of Meat in Developing Countries is Rising Steeply

Source:MeatAtlas,2014

Figure 10. Growth in the Supermarket Fridges

Figure 11. Counting the Animals

Source:TheEconomist,2011

Source:ForeignAgriculturalService2014b

Figure 12. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat Consumption

Aus

tralia

Figure 13. Comparison of Global Chicken Meat Consumption and Production, 2012

Source:a.ForeignAgriculturalService2014b(consumption)b.FoodandAgricultureOrganisation(Production)

Aus

tralia

Figure 14. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat Production

Sumber:FoodandAgricultureOrganisation

Aus

tralia

Figure 15. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption for Selected Countries, 2012

Source:a.ForeignAgriculturalService2014b(consumption)b.WorldBank(Population)

Aus

tralia

Figure 16. Expectation of Higher Growth in Consumption

Source:MinistryofAgriculture,CreditSuisseEstimates

Figure 17. Chicken is Indonesias Favorite Meat: Indonesia Meat Consumption Breakdown

Source:IndonesiaCentralStatisticalBureau

Figure 18. Sunny Days for Indonesian Broiler Sector

Source:Laughlin,Ketal(2007)

Figure 19. Genetic Selection Criteria

Source:Aho,2012

In1975,ittook64.1daysand4.66kgoffeedtogrowachickento2kg.In2011,ittookjust35daysandaslittleas3.4kgoffeed(ACMF,2011)

Figure 20. Significant Technological Changes in the Chicken Industry

Figure 21. Efficiency Improvements in Australian Chicken Meat Production

Source:AustralianChickenMeatFederation2011

Source:AustralianChickenMeatFederation2014

Figure 22. Converting Feed into Meat

Source:AssociationofAnimalFeedProducers(GPMT)

Figure 23. Animal Feed Raw Material Consumption 2010

Figure 24. Livestock Industries Throughout the Supply Chain

Source:WorldFoodSecuritySummit2014

ManufacturingFarminginput Farminginput RetailFoodservicesPackaginganddistribution

Breeders Animalfeed

LivestockPoultryAbattoirs

Processedfoods,cosmetics,personalcare,chemicalsetc.

WarehousingRepackagingColdroom

Supermarkets,groceries,restaurants,hotels

Logistic

TANTANGAN DAN PELUANG INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN KE DEPAN

Challenges in Poultry Industry (1)

The global industry is in crisis: Import growth slowing down and muchmore competition

Traditionalexporters(e.g.,US,Brazil,Argentina,Thailand)continuetogrowwhileaglobalrecessionisunderway

Traditionalimporters(e.g.,RussiaandChina)arebecomingselfsufficientduetofoodsecurityconcerns

AEC has become a greater target for the developed world doesnt want(CLQs)

Availabilityandpricevolatilityoffeedingredientsconsolidationor integration?

ThreatofBirdFlu(AI) Highvulnerabilitytodiseaseoutbreak

Volatilityofcashflow Largewetmarketandsmallpenetrationofprocessedchicken

Limitedmonitoringandcoordinationofsupply[Fragmented]

Challenges for Poultry Industry (2)

Difficultfinancingofworkingcapital Threats ofCLQimport Insufficientsupplyofinfrastructure(coldchain,transportationetc)

Availabilityofland Lackofpromotion[FAT] Inefficientgovernmentbureaucracy Policyinconsistencyintheeraofregionalautonomy

Challenges for Poultry Industry (3)

Growthindomesticdemandtocontinue:1520%[broiler]

Indonesiaslowpercapitaconsumptionprovidesamplepotentialforgrowth

Chickenisthecheapestsourceofprotein Priceriskisshiftingfromfarmertointegrator[ContractFarming]

Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (1)

Constantlyupgradestechnologyandskillsetoffarmers

Wetmarketsharetodeclinemorevalueadded

OpportunityforFDI(ForeignDirectInvestment)

Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (2)

STRATEGI MENGHADAPI PESAINGAN DALAM ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015

Table 4. Global Competitiveness Index: Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2013

Countries CHANGE201320142014

Outof1442013

Outf 148Change

201220132012

Out of1442011

Outof142CHANGE20112012

1.Singapore 0 2 2 0 2 2 0

2.Malaysia +4 20 24 +1 25 21 4

3.Thailand +6 31 37 +1 38 39 +1

4.Indonesia +4 34 38 +12 50 46 45.Philippines +7 52 59 +6 65 75 +10

6.Vietnam +2 68 70 +5 75 65 10

7.Cambodia 7 95 88 3 85 97 +12

8.Myanmar +5 134 139

Source: World Economic Forum, 2014

Table 5. Ease of Doing Business Ranking: Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2014

Countries EaseofDoingBusinessRank

StartingaBusiness

Dealingw/Construction

Permits

GettingElectricity

RegisteringProperty

GettingCredit

ProtectingInvestors

PayingTaxes

TradingAcrossBorders

EnforcingContracts

ResolvingInsolvency

Singapore 1 3 3 6 28 3 2 5 1 12 4

Malaysia 6 16 43 21 35 1 4 36 5 30 42

Thailand 18 91 14 12 29 73 12 70 24 22 58

Vietnam 99 109 29 156 51 42 157 149 65 46 149

Philippines 108 170 99 33 121 86 128 131 42 114 100

Indonesia 120 175 88 121 101 86 52 137 54 147 144Cambodia 137 184 161 134 118 42 80 65 114 162 163

Myanmar 182 189 150 126 154 170 182 107 113 188 155

Brunei 59 137 46 29 116 55 115 20 39 161 48

Laos 159 85 96 140 76 159 187 119 161 104 189

Source:WorldBank,2014

Feed Breeding Farming Processing Consumer

Byproduct Feedformulation Rawmaterial

buying

Productionefficiency

Productionefficiency

Passingpricechangesontocustomer

Highandvolatileprices consolidationandintegration?

Marketintelligenceandefficiency

Priceandexchangeratevolatility rawmaterialbuying,hedging?

Financing

Source:Rabobank,2012

Figure 25. Managing Animal Protein Value Chain

Grainavailability

Investmentintechnology

Humancapital&Managerialexpertise

Financing

Sanitarystatus,Foodsafety

Firmstrategy:Consolidation,Integration

Infrastructure&Coldchainmarketimg

Politicalinfluence,Regulatory env.&Tradepolicies

Valuechainimprovement&Marketintelligence

IntegratedProductionSystem

PoultryCompetitiveness

Figure 26. Determinants of Poultry Industry Competitiveness

DAGING

TELUR

SUSU

ITIK

SAPI

KAMBING

1. Peningkatan kuantitas dankualitas benih/bibit

2. Peningkatanproduksiternak

3. Peningkatanproduksipakanternak

4. Pengendaliandanpenanggulanganpenyakithewan

5. PenjaminanpanganasalhewanyangASUH

6. Peningkatankoordinasidandukunganmanajemen

REVITALISASIPERSUSUAN

RESTRUKTURISASIPERUNGGASAN

PSDSK

SAPI/KERBAU

KAMBINGDOMBA

AYAM/ITIK

BABI/ANEKATERNAK

AYAM

ANEKATERNAK

MEMENUHIKEBUTUHANPANGANASALTERNAK

Gambar 27. Strategi Pembangunan Peternakandan Kesehatan Hewan

Gambar 28. Kerangka Desain Strategi Induk Pembangunan Pertanian2013-2045

CONCLUDING REMARKS: LEADERSHIPS

Thepessimistcomplainaboutthewind;theoptimistexpectsittochange;

theleadersadjuststhesails.WilliamArthurWard

Orangpesimis mengeluhkan angin;Orangoptimis berharap agarangin berubah;

Pemimpin menyesuaikan layar.

TERIMAKASIH adaryant@mb.ipb.ac.id

Arief Daryanto - Peluang_dan_Tantangan_ Industri Perunggasan_MEA_Fapet_UGM_2014