Post on 07-Feb-2023
Centre for Development, Environment and Policy MSc Environmental Management SEPTEMBER 2014
DISSERTATION
REDD+ IN THE POST-KYOTO ERA AN ANALYSIS OF OPPORTUNITIES AND TRENDS FORECASTING THE FUTURE OF THE VOLUNTARY CARBON MARKET.
BY LORIS PALENTINI
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the MSc in Environmental Management for Distance Learning Students of the University of London, Centre for Development, Environment and Policy (CeDEP), School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)
Supervisor: Prof. Iain Fraser, School of Economics, University of Kent
ABSTRACT
This paper offers an analysis of opportunities and trends forecasting the future of the
voluntary carbon-market through an extensive literature review complemented and
deepened by a limited number of semi-structured interviews and questionnaires with key-
informants.
A total of 34 candidates were identified and invited for a 30 to 60 minutes interview or to
answer a questionnaire where oral interview was impossible. A total of 6 candidates were
successfully interviewed (including a panel discussion with 3 key-informants altogether)
while one questionnaire was compiled.
A general introduction of the climate change and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gasses concepts helps contextualise the architecture of the Kyoto Agreement evaluating
potential designs for a post-Kyoto treaty expected to be defined by and agreed at COP21
(Paris - 2015).
The role of REDD+ programmes in the carbon-market arena, as opposed to – but with
potential for integration with – the compliance market complements the analysis. An attempt
to forecast an optimal price for carbon credit and the potential for CO2 market has been
used to analyse the ‘carbon crisis’ and predict risks and limitations of the sector.
The concept of the carbon-grab is introduced as an emerging and highly polemical issue,
which may impact the effectiveness of different programmes through a new-borne
generation of land-grab and eviction, the cost of which is borne by local communities and
indigenous minorities while the benefits flow largely to private companies and colluded
governments. A recommendation for integrating land tenure and indigenous rights to any
future treaty is advocated.
Key words: carbon credits, REDD+, carbon-grab, Kyoto Agreement, post-Kyoto, climate change, VERs, CERs, GHGs, and COP21.
i
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
CCBA Climate, Community & Biodiversity Alliance
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CERs Certified units of Emissions Reduction
CH4 Methane
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
COP Conference of Parties
CSR Corporate Social Responsibility
ETS Emissions Trading Scheme
FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
GCF Green Climate Fund
GHGs Green House Gases
GMST Global Mean Surface Temperature
GW Global Warming
ha Hectares
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
JI Joint Implementation
KA Kyoto Agreement
LDCs Least Developed Countries
LMICs Low and Middle Income Countries
LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
MAC Marginal Abatement Cost
MD Marginal Damage
MRV Measuring, Reporting and Verification
MST Mean Surface Temperature
MtCO2e Metric tonnes of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) equivalent
ii
NGO Non-Governmental Organisations
ODA Overseas Development Assistance
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
REDD Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation
REDD+ Add to REDD the conservation and expansion of forest carbon stocks
UN United Nations
UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USA United States of America
VCS Verified Carbon Standard
VERs Verified units of Emissions Reduction
WMO World Meteorological Organisation
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1
1.1. AIM AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................ 3
1.2. RESEARCH PROCESS ................................................................................................. 3
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................4
2.1. PAST – WHAT LED TO THE KYOTO AGREEMENT ......................................................... 4
2.1.1. IPCC – THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA ................................................................. 4
2.2. PRESENT – NARROWING THE PATH FROM KYOTO AND BEYOND ................................. 5
2.2.1. OFFSETTING MECHANISMS................................................................................... 5
2.2.2. OPTIMAL LEVEL OF POLLUTION AND THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM ........... 5
2.2.3. FORESTS: THE BIG ABSENT FROM ‘KYOTO’ ............................................................ 6
2.2.4. REDD+ AND THE MECHANISMS FOR ITS INCLUSION IN THE ‘POST-KYOTO’ ............... 7
2.3. FUTURE – THE POST-KYOTO ERA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REDD INCLUSION ............ 8
2.3.1. REDD+ IN A FAILING CARBON-MARKET ............................................................... 9
2.3.2. LAND RIGHTS AND THE EMERGENT ‘CARBON-GRAB’ ........................................... 10
3. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 12
3.1. LITERATURE REVIEW – GATHERING OF SECONDARY DATA .......................................... 12
3.2. PREPARATION OF INTERVIEWS – PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION ................................... 12
3.3. INTERVIEWS AND QUESTIONNAIRES WITH KEY-INFORMANTS ...................................... 13
3.4. REFINEMENT OF THE RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES ............................................. 14
4. RESULTS .............................................................................................................. 15
4.1. WHAT IS LEADING THE ‘POST-KYOTO’ DEBATE? ........................................................ 15
4.2. CARBON-MARKET AND THE ROLES OF REDD+ .......................................................... 16
4.3. NGOS, INDIGENOUS MINORITIES AND THE EMERGENCE OF ‘CARBON-GRAB’ ................ 18
5. ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 20
5.1. BACKGROUND ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 20
5.2. THE EMERGING SCENARIO TOWARDS A POST-KYOTO AGREEMENT .............................. 21
5.3. ROLE OF REDD AND THE VOLUNTARY CARBON-MARKET ........................................... 23
5.4. THE EMERGENCE OF THE ‘CARBON-GRAB’ ................................................................. 25
5.5. CARBON-MARKET .................................................................................................... 26
Table 1: Comparison of key literature review vs. key-informants’ opinions .............. 28
6. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 29
6.1. THE ROAD TO ‘PARIS’ .............................................................................................. 29
6.2. POTENTIAL FOR REDD+ TO SCALE UP AND REVITALISATION OF CARBON-MARKET .... 29
iv
6.3. CARBON-GRAB AND FOREST PEOPLE’S RIGHTS ....................................................... 30
6.4. LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................ 30
7. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 32
8. BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................... 38
9. WEB SITES OF RELEVANCE .................................................................................... 42
v
1. INTRODUCTION
The last thirty years have been marked by continuous discussions about global warming,
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased mean surface temperature (MST).
The greenhouse effect is a phenomenon caused by the capacity of atmospheric gases to let
short-wave solar radiation enter the atmosphere while partially trapping long-wave radiation
reflected back by the earth’s surface. It is this natural occurrence that allows life on earth by
increasing the mean surface temperature from the potential -18°C to a global mean of 15°C.
However, anthropogenic (human-induced) greenhouse gas emissions increase the retention
of solar radiation within the earth’s atmosphere inducing an excessive increase of the global
mean surface temperature (GMST) known as global warming (GW).
The first major international step taken to globally reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions was
embodied in the Kyoto Agreement (KA) (signed in 1992) which, for the first time, included the
provision for a binding emissions reduction target for the period 2008 – 2012 for the signatory
parties, namely Annex I countries1. At the treaty expiration, a successive agreement was
supposed to be negotiated. However, for various reasons, primarily political and economic, a
post-Kyoto agreement is still far from being reached. Nevertheless, encouraging
developments emerged at the 19th UNFCCC (United Nation Framework Convention on
Climate Change) Conference of Parties (COP19) held at Warsaw in November 2013, leading
to the new target of COP21 in Paris at the end of 2015. It is still largely unclear what to expect
from it, but all parties hope for a new treaty to come into effect by 2020 ending the gap
between the expiration of the KA and the definition of any post-Kyoto agreement.
While the KA gave specific provision for three offsetting mechanisms2, a gap was deliberately
left concerning emissions from deforestation and degradation of tropical forests. Despite GHG
1 ‘The group of countries included in Annex I (as amended in 1998) to the UNFCCC, including all the OECD countries and economies in transition. Under Articles 4.2 (a) and 4.2 (b) of the Convention, Annex I countries committed themselves specifically to the aim of returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels of greenhouse-gas emissions by the year 2000. By default, the other countries are referred to as Non-Annex I countries.’ Cited from Annex I of the Working Group III contribution to the 4th IPCC Assessment Report (Metz, 2007, p. 809). 2 1. ETS – Emissions Trading Scheme; 2. JI – Joint Implementation; and 3. CDM – Clean Development Mechanism. The three mechanisms are thoroughly described in section 2.b.
1
emissions from deforestation and forest degradation accounting for about 14 (Harris et al.,
2012) to 20 percent (IPCC, 2007) of the global emissions, a strong lobby from activists and
NGOs advocated for their exclusion from the treaty, leaving a gap to be filled in respect to the
actions addressing this major component of global emissions. It is in this uncertain scenario
that the UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in
developing countries) programme was first developed, with the initial objective of reducing
emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in tropical countries. The objectives were
later modified to include the conservation and expansion of forest carbon stocks, known as
REDD+.
While the general carbon-market – commonly known as the compliance market3 – is
governed by the three KA offsetting mechanisms, a voluntary market was developed offering
a viable alternative for projects and programmes aimed at conserving natural tropical forests
through carbon offsetting – mainly falling under the umbrella of the REDD+ programme – but
excluded from the KA. The voluntary market, where VERs (Verified units of Emissions
Reduction) are traded, is thus opposed to the compliance market with its CERs (Certified units
of Emissions Reduction). The evident limitation is that the compliance market, regulated under
the KA, offers a marketplace for governments and private companies which legally need to
reduce their emissions (i.e. signatory parties of the KA with their commitments for emissions
reduction), while the voluntary market consists primarily of companies and governments which
are genuinely committed to curbing climate change, or want – particularly in the case of big
multinational companies – to greenwash their name. Though REDD carbon credits are
leading the voluntary market, an inclusion of its VERs within any post-Kyoto agreement is
seen as inevitable despite the fact that the role and form that it may take is far from clear.
3 A Compliance Market is a market for carbon offsets created by the need to comply with a regulatory act. In a Cap-and-Trade emissions reductions market, actors buy and sell carbon offsets to comply with the cap or limit imposed on their emissions. Cited from: http://rainforests.mongabay.com/carbon-lexicon/Compliance-Market.html
2
1.1. AIM AND OBJECTIVES
This dissertation offers ‘an analysis of opportunities and trends forecasting the future of the
voluntary carbon-market’ and the role of REDD+ in the post-Kyoto era. An analysis of the
present situation is deemed necessary to identify actors involved and gaps, while a forecast of
future scenarios and market trends will be suggested.
The research focused on an in-depth analysis of three main areas of interest (i.e. policy
analysis; market forecast; and role of the different actors involved), purposely developed to
respond to the set research questions.
o Which jurisdictional process can be expected for the coming period and shall lead to the
definition of any post-Kyoto agreement? Will REDD+ be finally included to the
compliance market and gain its role among the other offsetting mechanisms?
o How will the market react to the post-Kyoto treaty to be agreed upon at COP21 and
what is expected to be the trend of the carbon-market in ‘the interim period’ (2015 to
2020)?
o What can be the role of the different actors (i.e. NGOs) in the perspective of a new and
revitalised voluntary carbon-market? Will the introduction of the new financial
mechanisms be enough to fill the gap until the market will regain power?
1.2. RESEARCH PROCESS
The research is based on an extensive literature review complemented by a limited, but highly
relevant to the aims and objective, set of semi-structured interviews and questionnaires with
key-informants. A critical analysis of primary data, gathered through the opinions of key-
informants, against the secondary data, from the literature review, allowed for the
development of an informed opinion anticipating the future trends for REDD+ inclusion in
“2015-agreement” as well as of the voluntary carbon-market.
3
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. PAST – WHAT LED TO THE KYOTO AGREEMENT
Although Svante Arrhenius in his 1896 paper ‘On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon
the temperature of the ground’ (Arrhenius, 1896) prophesised an increase in global mean
temperature due to the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs), no action was
taken by the international community for almost a century. It was only in the late 1970s that
the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) raised concerns about the connection between
global warming and the anthropogenic increase of GHGs, mainly in the forms of carbon
dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels, and methane (CH4) due to agriculture, coal and
oil extraction, biomass burning and waste disposal in landfills.
2.1.1. IPCC – THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA
Concern grew throughout the 1980s leading the United Nations Environmental Programme
(UNEP) and WMO to collaborate in creating the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
(IPCC) in 1988 with the aim of investigating and reporting, within a scientific perspective,
climate change and possible international responses for its mitigation. The establishment of
the IPCC, and particularly its first assessment report (1990), poses the basis for later
agreements and led, in 1991, to the drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed by 166 countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in
1992 which came into force in 1994. Total signatory parties to the ‘convention’ are 192 – 191
countries and the EU – while the US signed the Convention but did not ratify the Protocol and
Canada withdrew from it in 2011.
However, the UNFCCC does not include any specific target for the reduction of GHG
emissions and a debate emerged soon after, inflaming the Conference of Parties (COP). The
first significant step came at the third conference of parties (COP3) held in Kyoto (Japan) in
1997 where a solid and sound agreement was reached – the Kyoto Agreement (UN, 1998) –
which for the first time had specific and binding emissions reduction targets.
4
2.2. PRESENT – NARROWING THE PATH FROM KYOTO AND BEYOND
2.2.1. OFFSETTING MECHANISMS
The Kyoto Agreement establishes GHG reduction targets for developed countries across the
period 2008 – 2012 through three specific mechanisms:
• Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) which allows international trade in emission
allowances (the most famous of which is the European Union Emission Trading
Scheme – EU-ETS);
• Joint Implementation (JI) which allows emission saving investments in other Annex I
countries (developed countries, signatories of the KA, for which binding GHG
emissions have been agreed within the KA);
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the only mechanism, recognised under the
KA, which allows saving emissions in developing countries by developed countries.
The establishment of the latter mechanisms for trading emissions reduction has been seen as
an opportunity for non-Annex I (developing) countries for investment in renewable energies
and technologies transfer (Craft, 2013). Yet, it has also been strongly criticised, particularly by
activists and environmental groups and organisations, as a way to allow Annex I countries to
keep polluting (Ervine, 2013, p. 654). According to these groups, the three mechanisms allow
a ‘greenwash’ mask to polluters, permitting them to keep on polluting in the name of investing
in reduced emissions elsewhere.
2.2.2. OPTIMAL LEVEL OF POLLUTION AND THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM
The principle behind the three KA mechanisms is the global distribution of GHGs. If
emissions, despite their location, are to be considered as part of a ‘global’ system,
investments in emissions reduction have to be thought of on the same scale. Therefore
investment in emission reduction across countries, developed or developing, where the
investment per unit of emission reduction is less, are preferable and more efficient assuming
the global distribution. In this respect, and following a general environmental economics
principle, it is globally advantageous to reduce emissions in Annex I countries only up to the
5
optimal level of pollution (OLP). At this level, the investment is still offset by the market –
described as the point where the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve intersects the
Marginal Damage (MD) curve – since a further investment is not beneficial to the society as
the costs outweigh the benefits (Stern, 2007, pp. 25-26). Further emissions reduction could
thus be achieved through investment in other – non-Annex I – countries for the remaining
component of emission reduction up to the binding limit agreed under the Kyoto Agreement by
each signatory party (Dalsgaard, 2013). At this point, the question might be obvious and refer
to ‘how can pollution ever be optimal?’, with the ‘optimality’ of pollution regarded exclusively in
economic terms in this context (Fullerton and Stavins, 1998).
2.2.3. FORESTS: THE BIG ABSENT FROM ‘KYOTO’
Despite the fact that the Kyoto Agreement has been recognised by all parties as one of the
most successful treaties ever reached, it still has a profound limitation with respect to the
inclusion of forests and landscape actions amongst its mechanisms. Formally included within
the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, actions addressing GHG
emissions due to forest activities have been divided into two main categories: the forest as a
carbon sink; and the forest as an emitter of GHGs (CarbonCreditControversy, 2011). While
the first category, including afforestation and reforestation, has been included in the KA since
the beginning; the second, responsible for 14% (Harris et al., 2012) to 20% of global GHG
emissions (IPCC, 2007, Buizer et al., 2014), has been deliberately omitted from the
negotiation (Kość, 2014, Butler, n.d., Kill and Fenton, 2010, p. 69).
Marketable credits from CO2 offset from REDD+ projects are thus neither eligible under the
‘protocol’ nor tradable under most of the emissions trading scheme mechanisms (i.e. EU-ETS,
Australia’s Carbon Pricing Mechanism, New Zealand’s ETS), limiting the role of REDD+ and
voluntary credits among the global carbon-market (Gomera et al., 2012, IFF, 2014). VERs
(Verified units of Emissions Reduction) are therefore consigned to the voluntary segment of
the market, primarily supported by public funds and with only limited interest from the private
sector. The latter is made up primarily of companies interested in ‘greenwashing’ and ‘green
branding’, Corporate Social Responsibility strategies or what Cashore defined the ‘social
6
license to operate’ (Cashore et al., 2006, p. 11).
2.2.4. REDD+ AND THE MECHANISMS FOR ITS INCLUSION IN THE ‘POST-KYOTO’
REDD+ has been considered for inclusion in the post-Kyoto protocols since COP11, at
Montreal in 2005, where the idea of reducing GHG emissions through forest protection
officially took the name of REDD – Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest
Degradation in developing countries. However, the first decision in this regard has been
postponed to COP13 in Bali (2007) (Clémençon, 2008) with the Decision 1/CP.13, 1.b.III of
the Bali Action Plan calling for ‘policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to
reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries [REDD],
and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest
carbon stock in developing countries’ (UNFCCC, 2008). REDD was later modified at COP16
as REDD+ by (1) adding new components specifically addressing the conservation and
expansion of forest carbon stocks, and (2) expanding the scope of protecting forests in all
countries (Bodansky and Diringer, 2014c).
Following from Bali, REDD and successively REDD+ gained an increasingly prominent role in
the international scenario. At Copenhagen (COP15) in 2009, the Decision 4/CP.15
‘Methodological guidance for activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and
forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and
enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries’ (UNFCCC, 2009a), widely
considered as the only remarkable achievement of the highly criticised conference, shapes
the first concrete building block for the development of a solid strategy (UNFCCC, 2009b).
At COP19 in Warsaw (2013), for the first time, a strong emphasis was given to the need of ad
hoc technical and especially financial mechanisms to ensure that ‘the activities [….] are
undertaken in the context of the provision of adequate and predictable support, including
financial resources and technical and technological support to developing country Parties’
(UNFCCC, 2014a, Decision 11/CP.19, article 1). A clear framework of action with its 7
decisions has been finally agreed, taking the name of Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus
7
(UNFCCC, 2014b, Decision 9-15/CP.19). Unlike the previously adopted mechanisms, the new
framework builds on the concept of result-based finance (Decision 9/CP.19) and emphasises
the role of developing countries in monitoring (Decision 11/CP.19) and involvement in the
Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of internal actions (Decision 14/CP.19).
Further major achievements of COP19 are the revitalization of the Green Climate Fund (GCF)
(Goldstein, 2013) and the increased portfolio of the BioCarbon Fund of the World Bank’s
Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) (EcosystemMarketplace, 2014). Although the
impact of these instruments is still far from being evaluated, the side effects of this
unexpected source of funding could potentially be more negative than positive on the
commitment and willingness of many low and middle income countries (LMICs) to participate.
The available funds could, in fact, become an attraction more than a pushing factor towards
the reduction of GHG emissions. The allocation of public funds – from both international
agencies (UN agencies, World Bank) and governments (ODA) – in favour of the REDD+
mechanisms may be seen as an instrument to revitalize the sector while the market regains
its role or, at the same time, as an incentive for developing countries to adhere, with limited or
no commitment, to a new form of subsidy (Mundy, 2013).
2.3. FUTURE – THE POST-KYOTO ERA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REDD INCLUSION
With the Kyoto Agreement expired as of 2012 and no other agreement reached to fill the
normative gap, the climate change stage is open to speculation. Owing to its dramatic impact
on greenhouse gas emissions and the recognition by the majority of the original opponents –
mainly environmental activists and NGOs4 (TropicalForestGroup, 2007) – of the need for a
single and strong approach, the inclusion of REDD programmes in any eventual post-Kyoto
treaty has to be seen as inevitable. However, the modalities of their inclusion and the type of
new or revised offsetting mechanisms to be developed are still far from being identified (Anger
and Sathaye, 2008).
4 These NGOs include FERN, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, Global Witness and Rainforest Foundation among many others.
8
2.3.1. REDD+ IN A FAILING CARBON-MARKET
Following the dramatic falls of the carbon-market in the last few years (BW|BusinessWorld,
2014), a rapid analysis is evolving around the falls of EU-ETS (Lang, 2014, Stephan et al.,
2014) and consequently the so called ‘back-loading’ process the EU is undergoing by (ICAP,
2014). After an initial pick which fired-up the market to its maximum of €25 per metric ton of
carbon dioxide equivalent in 2008, the market has since collapsed to an insignificant €0.35 in
2013 (Ervine, 2013) As the first and most ambitious ETS under the KA, the European
Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), while having contributed to the collapse of the market,
also serves as a lesson for most emerging emission trading schemes (i.e. Australia, Brazil,
California, Canada, China, Korea and Japan) to best model their own path and estimate the
potential for market revitalisation in the 2020 scenario (Anger and Sathaye, 2008, pp. 12-23).
Due to the collapse of the global carbon-market, the market for REDD+ credits (VERs) also
fell, leaving an incredible amount of unsold tonnes of CO2e (MtCO2e) (IFF, 2014, Zwick,
2013b, Manibo, 2014). It is estimated that if REDD+ programmes have, as anticipated,
contributed to a reduction of 50% of annual deforestation, an amount up to 9,900 MtCO2e will
be available on market. At the same time, the estimated amount of carbon credits to be
absorbed by the market in the period 2015 to 2020 (‘the interim period’) stands at only around
253 MtCO2, representing less than 3% of the total potentially available volume (IFF, 2014, pp.
11-13). The impact of the oversupply of carbon credits to the final market price was therefore
inevitable. There has been significant discussion since Bali (UNFCCC, 2008), but the ground
is still open for debate on how REDD+ credits will gain a role amongst the compliance market
and, more recently, on how the gap between supply and demand for credits will be filled-in
(IFF, 2014, EcosystemMarketplace, 2014, Denier and Lawrence, 2014).
While the eligibility of REDD+ credits to be traded among the compliance market will enhance
their robustness, it will also increase the supply of credits in a market already suffering from
an over-supply juxtaposed to a dramatic under-demand (Lang, 2014, IFF, 2014). Therefore,
there is no opportunity for a productive inclusion of REDD+ within the compliance market
unless a solid and long-term solution to revitalize the global carbon-market is identified
9
(Cowling, 2013).
How the market for CO2 credits will be reshaped in the coming years, particularly in regard to
the so-called ‘interim period’ (2015 to 2020) is difficult to forecast. Since Warsaw COP19,
many speculations have been made with most of them referring to the estimate for 2014
(McCrone, 2014) and to the analysis of the recent new emission trading schemes (ICAP,
2014). Despite forecasting a market trend for CO2 – often considered a speculative rather than
a commodity market (Chan, 2009, Thomas, 2010, Button, 2008) – is very complicated, the
commitments taken, or still under negotiation, by different actors (e.g. EU) may help in
estimating the future market (McGarrity, 2014). These commitments are based on the plans
for reduced emission in the post-Kyoto era as well as the immediate actions to be taken from
now to COP21 (Kość, 2014, Chitre, 2013) and through to 2020 (Friedman, 2014, Anger and
Sathaye, 2008, pp. 9-12).
How a potential new mechanism enabling REDD+ credits to be traded within the CO2
compliance market will work and when and where this argument will be reviewed and
discussed are key issues still to be agreed upon (Zwick, 2013a, Denier and Lawrence, 2014,
FCMC, 2013).
2.3.2. LAND RIGHTS AND THE EMERGENT ‘CARBON-GRAB’
While interest surrounding REDD+ and the potential – though controversial – market for VERs
within the forthcoming post-Kyoto era is generally growing, a new phenomenon is appearing:
the carbon-grab (Lewis, 2014).
In the race to the emerging ‘carbon-market’, many governments are approaching Carbon
Capture and Storage (CCS) considering the CO2 as a mineral resource, therefore separate
from tenure rights recognised to local communities and Indigenous Peoples (Luttrell et al.,
2013). A new form of top-down management of international funds (i.e. GCF, BioCarbon
Fund) is seen as having potential for an unethical backward step in the land rights process of
many developing countries (White, 2014, RRI, 2014). The effect that an increase in REDD+
financing and the emerging phenomenon of ‘carbon-grab’ may have on land tenure and the
10
rights of communities living off forest resources is not fully understood. However, the analysis
of how this phenomenon may weaken the effectiveness of REDD+ and the rights of forest
communities remains of primary importance and needs to be addressed (Tickell, 2014). The
potential for a form of protection of the ‘rights’ of forest peoples to be included in any post-
Kyoto treaty is left to governments but binding safeguarding obligations are to be encouraged
(Wallbott, 2014, Savaresi, 2013).
How any post-Kyoto resolution will look is still a matter of speculation. Many have attempted
to analyse any possible scenario in recent years (Ullal, 2013), but most relevant papers are
still only proposing assumptions on the basis of an analysis of past studies, resolutions and
documents (Bodansky and Diringer, 2014a, Bodansky and Diringer, 2014b, Bodansky and
Diringer, 2014c, Morel and Shishlov, 2014, Morel et al., 2014) and present rumours,
speculations and hypotheses.
11
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. LITERATURE REVIEW – GATHERING OF SECONDARY DATA
The dissertation has been based on an extensive literature review of available publications
(i.e. journal article, studies, and official documents), identifying policy and project documents
for content analysis, review and analysis of the findings. Due to the topicality of the study
object, despite the enormous amount of existing information, circumstances are changing
rapidly and availability of referenced updated information is not always sufficient to allow a
comprehensive framing of the picture. Most of the information regarding a hypothetical post-
Kyoto agreement is yet to be on journal and thus sectoral and organisations’ websites and the
press supplemented academic secondary data.
The literature review was used as a tool for analysing all accessible information and allowed
designing a matrix of the complex scenario surrounding REDD+ and the carbon-market, with
an attempt of forecasting the trend over the interim period to 2020.
Electronic databases (i.e. JSTOR, ScienceDirect, EBSCOhost, ProQuest) were searched
using key words, with the principle purpose of identifying published papers related to the
research questions. Websites of international agencies and organisations (see the section
‘Web Sites of Relevance’ for reference) were searched as well to retrieve documents and
reports on progress, challenges and achievements of global strategies and programmes.
A first review of the literature available has allowed narrowing the research questions and the
main goal of the study, leading to the refining of the overall project design.
3.2. PREPARATION OF INTERVIEWS – PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION
To complement the secondary data and deepen the analyses and arguments reviewed from
the literature, a number of semi-structured interviews with key-informants were planned. A
topic-guide for interviews and a related questionnaire to be used when oral interviews were
not possible were developed. Questions were grouped under three main subjects according to
12
the expertise of the informants (i. Policy analysis; ii. Market forecast; and iii. Role of the
different actors involved) to facilitate the categorisation of relevant information. Main issues
addressed during the interviews referred to:
- Availability of data and research studies on the foreseeable development for REDD+ and
the voluntary market in the post-Kyoto scenario;
- Positive and negative impact of the inclusion of REDD+ among compliance market for CO2;
- Market forecast for both voluntary and compliance credits in the interim period (2015 to
2020) and beyond;
- Potential role of NGOs and sectorial organisations in REDD+ programmes.
3.3. INTERVIEWS AND QUESTIONNAIRES WITH KEY-INFORMANTS
A total of 34 candidates, representing 24 different institutions, were identified and invited for a
telephone interview of 30 to 60 minutes or to answer the questionnaire where oral interview
was impossible. Key-informants were identified among authors and referees of studies or
research analysed as secondary data during the literature review; editors and contributors to
websites and the press in general. According to their expertise, candidates were asked
questions from one or more of the set subjects ensuring a good level of data gathering for all
three main categories of questions. Priority was given to telephone interviews while written
questionnaires were used as a back-up option whenever the candidate was unable to attend
the interview or the interview itself was impossible (i.e. bad network, impossible to find a
suitable time). All telephone interviews were recorded, upon the candidate’s consent, and
quick notes were taken to complement.
As expected, not all key-informants accepted to take part in the interview. Six candidates were
successfully interviewed (including a panel discussion with three key-informants
simultaneously) while one questionnaire was compiled. A further four candidates agreed to
compile the questionnaire, but never submitted their opinions despite numerous solicitations.
Only one candidate immediately refused to participate in the study, while a large number
never replied to the request despite having been contacted at least twice and being sent an
13
information sheet with general research information to introduce the principal investigator and
share in advance the aims and objectives of the study. A consent form, to be signed and
returned to the principal investigator, has been sent to all candidates as well.
3.4. REFINEMENT OF THE RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES
Primary data retrieved through interviews has been integrated and critically discussed against
secondary data collected through the literature review to allow a comprehensive analysis of
the research question.
The retrieval of both primary and up-to-date secondary data revealed that the dissertation
argument was far too wide and thus a refinement of the study objectives was necessary to
ensure a significant analysis of opportunities and trends of the voluntary carbon-market in
general and its REDD+ component in particular, main focus of the research.
14
4. RESULTS
This dissertation – based on a desk review of available literature and media source data –
aims at investigating the potential ways forward from the ‘Kyoto’ era and towards COP21, and
the subsequent climate change agreements, mainly in relation to a possible inclusion and
related regulations of REDD+ programmes in the global picture. Primary data, collected
through questionnaires and interviews with key-informants, have allowed narrowing the
discussion –initially focused on a wide carbon-market analysis – on the specific target of the
role of REDD+ among the voluntary market for carbon credits and its potential and implication
in curbing climate change, promoting tenure rights and well-being of forest people and
contributing to sustainable development, in the post-2020 scenario.
4.1. WHAT IS LEADING THE ‘POST-KYOTO’ DEBATE?
The ongoing debate forecasting future policies (focus of the first research question) appears
to be increasingly speculative, despite the fact that the deadline of Paris 2015 (COP21) is
approaching. Being unclear on the final position of the biggest actors (e.g. United States,
Russia, Canada) as well as the stance of most LDCs, the new OECD members (Chile, Korea
and Mexico) and the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), a proper
analysis of any possible ‘post-Kyoto’ agreement seems by now purely abstract and highly
hypothetical. It is certainly true that the amount of information, speculation and projection has
being growing in the last months – particularly after Warsaw (COP19) – while approaching
‘Paris’, helping to clarify the evolution on the political arena; however it has also led to a
certain level of confusion among parties, delivering a message of increasing hesitation around
a common understanding and consequently the long attended agreement, which will definitely
replace ‘Kyoto’.
According to Lin (2009, p. 5), and confirmed by some key-informants, there is no way of
getting a binding agreement to replace Kyoto. The major challenge of the KA has always
been the exclusion of one of the biggest polluters (USA), which criticised and contested the
treaty alluding to the exclusion of non-Annex I countries from any form of binding emissions
15
reduction target (TropicalForestGroup, 2007). Many favourable and a similar number of
unfavourable hypothesis could be argued in this regard, but it is a matter of fact that the
United States of America would have never ratified, although they did initially sign, the
agreement mainly due to Byrd–Hagel5 resolution passed by the Senate in July 1997 by a 95–
0 vote (Hovi et al., 2012, p. 130).
Discussions around the post-Kyoto agreement have been enriched by the polemic around the
pollution-intensive BRICS countries that Annex I countries push to commit for emissions
reduction schemes. Moreover, lately, the BRICS argument has widened to developing
countries, with the main scope of reviewing their determination in maintaining the same status
recognised within the KA.
4.2. CARBON-MARKET AND THE ROLES OF REDD+
In regards to the market analysis (focus of the second research question), the review of the
published and un-published literature indicates that the market for carbon is dominated by
speculation and driven by new markets that have emerged over the past years, with the new
California cap-and-trade and six new Chinese emission trading programmes leading the
debate. Very limited room seems left for a voluntary market, as appeared from the analysis of
the literature. Moreover, despite acknowledging the limited number of key-informants
interviewed, it is worth mentioning that the majority of them confirmed what was reported by
the literature and proved to be very sceptical about the effective role voluntary credits – and in
particular those coming from REDD+ programs – may have on the market. Among the others,
two key-informants attempted to forecast an ideal price for unit of carbon dioxide equivalent
within the ‘interim period’. The first, in line with the indication emerged at the 10th Carbon Fund
meeting (Bonn, June 2014), indicated 5 US$ per tonne of CO2 as the most likely price
expected during the interim period (2015 – 2020). The second, more focused to the REDD
market and its overall tradability, affirmed that a price of 20 US$ per tonne would be realistic.
5 ‘Byrd–Hagel’ resolution stats that: ‘the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol ... which would (A) mandate new commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the Annex I Parties, unless the protocol ... also mandates new specific scheduled commitments ... for Developing Country Parties within the same compliance period, or (B) result in serious harm to the economy of the United States.’
16
Meanwhile, he added that a 1:1 influx of REDD+ credits to other carbon-markets is unlikely to
occur purposing a coupled market where REDD+ credits could be exchange for a higher
number of carbon certificates.
It seems highly improbable that voluntary credits will be traded in the compliance market and
even less probable that a single mechanism will be developed to combine VERs (Verified
units of Emissions Reduction) and CERs (Certified units of Emissions Reduction). According
to the majority of the key-informants, what may be expected is a likely reshape of the
voluntary sector to accommodate the emerging certification standards (i.e. VCS, CCBA, Gold
Standard) more than the improbable inclusion of VERs into the compliance market.
In the last few years the carbon-market experienced all the symptoms of a crisis. The price fell
to the lowest level ever seen, of 0.35 €/ MtCO2e in 2013, and scams discovered across
different countries further discouraged and hindered the market. The sole European Trading
Scheme (EU-ETS) lost 80% of its value in a semester, passing from €30 per ton of CO2 in
June 2008 to €7 at the beginning of 2009 (Taschini and Gregory, 2014). The offset market for
REDD+ credits confirms the trend. According to the ‘State of the Voluntary Carbon-Markets
2014’, despite a two-fold increase of the market in 2013 compared to the previous year (22.6
million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions equivalent (MtCO2e) of REDD+ offsets were
purchased in 2013 compared to the 9.6 million traded in 2012 (Peters-Stanley and Yin, 2013,
pp. 21-22)) the market price has dropped from nearly $7.4 per tonne of CO2 equivalent
(tCO2e) in 2012 to an average of $4.2/MtCO2e in 2013. The price in 2014 dropped even
further to below $1 per tonne (Peters-Stanley and Gonzalez, 2014). To complete this picture,
the many REDD+ projects, promoted and emphasised by NGOs, lobbying groups and media
coverage, resulted in an over production of credits to be sold on the market. ‘Producers’,
being communities, governments and development projects, appear unwilling to sell their
credits at an extremely low price, preferring to keep them out of the market waiting for a more
favourable future. The market crisis and the depicted phenomena gave rise to the oversupply
of carbon credits experienced since the beginning of 2013 and described by Zwick as a
‘Supply-Side Success, Demand-Side Dilemmas’ (Zwick, 2013b).
17
4.3. NGOS, INDIGENOUS MINORITIES AND THE EMERGENCE OF ‘CARBON-GRAB’
One of the original pillars of this dissertation was meant to analyse the potential role of NGOs
in the promotion, management and regulation of REDD+ programs (focus of the third
research question). The interviews conducted with key-informants revealed that NGOs’ roles
are very different from country to country, influenced by local policies and long-term
commercial agreements, and are thus impossible to be summarised in a common framework.
Countries like Indonesia for example, that are investing effort and capital to reduce their
deforestation through adherence to REDD+ programmes, are binding themselves to long-term
contracts with logging companies. This results in ambiguous resolutions taken by the
government through which on one hand it endorses – Ministerial Decree No. 63/2014 – the
adherence to REDD+ while on the other it confirmed the original plan to clear 14 million
hectares (ha) of degraded forest from 2010 to 20206.
One aspect of REDD that was not included in the initial assertions, but clearly and remarkably
emerged from the media, particularly in the first semester of 2014, refers to the impact on
local communities and indigenous minorities and their rights to land. REDD is about forest and
forests are ‘… about people, and how trees can serve people’ (Westoby, 1987, p. 302), those
usually among the weakest rings in the entire ‘social chain’. Forest people, being indigenous
minorities or communities who clear forestland for their livelihood (i.e. farming, cattle
ranching), live in the forest and have their livelihood secured through the forest (Wunder et al.,
2014). According to the majority of key-informants interviewed, a further simplification is held
vital for the REDD+ strategy to scale up if the inclusion of local communities and indigenous
minorities is to be reached. In this regard, the general opinion is that REDD+ programmes
cannot compete with other more lucrative operations (e.g. logging, palm oil plantations) in
favour of these communities, the strategy therefore has to focus on local commitment on one
hand and subsidies (e.g. ODA, BioCarbon Fund, Green Climate Fund) on the other.
Although some governments are recognising land rights of local communities (e.g. Brazil,
6 Forestry Ministry secretary-general Hadi Daryanto said that “Deforestation is inevitable [for development], but we will allocate the land for better use” (TheJakartaPost, 2014)
18
Mexico and Guatemala), a complex dispute is surrounding the extractive rights. As is
happening for most underground natural resources, the right to the land is not automatically
extended to the extractive resources. Therefore communities legally owning the right to
cultivate their land do not automatically own the right to the underground resources.
With an increased interest in programmes supporting the principle of ‘reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation’, the ancient dilemma of land rights vs. the right to
extractive resources is – if possible – even more vibrant. Carbon sequestration is being
considered as a natural resource and thus some governments are separating the right to land
from the right to CO2 offset through the forests. It is believed that the availability of funds (e.g.
Green Climate Fund, BioCarbon Fund) to support REDD programmes now, and the potential
for a sound carbon-market in the future, may represent the driver for a new dimension of land-
grab explicitly called ‘carbon-grab’. In support to the many REDD+ programmes, often
accused of disenfranchising the local community by attracting with their funds other actors –
governments and private companies –, a recent publication by the World Resources Institute
and Rights and Resources Initiative asserted that there is a positive correlation between local
communities and indigenous groups land ownership and good land stewardship (Stevens,
2014, p. 3), incentivising a more pro-community approach in REDD+ interventions.
Not all informants agreed with the ‘carbon-grab’ idea. The majority of them describe the wave
of protests more as a speculation from activists and indigenous rights’ organisations, although
the number of articles and debates are increasingly voicing minority spokespeople and
inflaming the debate (Tickell, 2014).
The last dilemma regards the genuine behaviour of governments pursuing REDD+ funds. It is
difficult to estimate how many are honestly committed to the principle of avoiding
deforestation and forest degradation in their countries and how many others are just seeing
those funds as an opportunity for extra ODA funds: the tribute of the ‘Warsaw Framework for
REDD-plus’. Most of these funds are still a promise for the coming years since a limited
amount has been made available to date.
19
5. ANALYSIS
5.1. BACKGROUND ANALYSIS
The overall architecture of the Kyoto Agreement with its three mechanisms to mitigate global
emissions is based on the assumption that GHGs naturally exist and anthropogenic emissions
– mainly in form of CO2 and methane (CH4) – are part of the ‘global commons’, citing from
Hardin (1968). Therefore the introduction of these three mechanisms (ETS, JI and CDM)
should have been seen as a panacea to mitigate the global emissions rather than being
criticised since the ‘agreement’ signing, as has happened.
Today, nearly fifteen years after the KA endorsement, the scenario is not very different from
the original one. The general public is more informed and concerned about the possible future
climate change scenario, while activist groups are widespread: though it is general opinion
that much of the common interest is more easily explainable with the fear for what we are
leaving in inheritance to the future generations rather than with the real concern for the impact
human beings are having on the planet. Arguably, the same concept of sustainable
development is applied to the climate change scenario as the broader definition of
“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987, p. 45).
Combining the three concepts of ‘sustainable development’, ‘climate change’ and ‘global
commons’, through the foundation of the KA, will bring the reader to the economics paradox of
the ‘optimal level of pollution’. This helps to understand why at least a certain amount of
pollution is, at present, inevitable and therefore embrace the overarching principle sustaining
the KA mechanisms.
If in principle the concept is absolutely solid, for the public opinion – made primarily by the
general population with limited technical knowledge of climate change, environmental
economics and meteorology – It may sound like a licence to pollute granted to the
industrialised (KA Annex I) countries. But though this is generally true for global
20
anthropogenic GHG emissions, it seems controversial while considering emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation. A fourth concept may be considered at this point, still in
relation to the sustainable development definition: ‘biodiversity conservation’. It is possible to
find the connection between the two concepts and identifying in the conservation of
biodiversity a solid principle for protecting natural forests from deforestation and
anthropogenic degradation, but once again it can be read in economic terms.
As natural forest degradation and deforestation is the source of between 14% (Harris et al.,
2012) and 20% (IPCC, 2007) of the global CO2e emissions, it would be enlightening to
understand how much could be saved in terms of global investments in emission reductions in
Annex I countries through investments to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation in non-Annex I countries. In other words, an estimation of the investment needed
to reduce by 20% the global CO2 emissions from reducing the burning of fossil fuels
compared to investment in REDD+ programmes, which have in addition the advantage of
enhancing biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.
According to Clive Richardson’s comment to the article that appeared on July 3, 2014 on red-
monitor.org (redd-monitor.org, 2014), the market cost of CO2 emissions from liquid fuels,
calculated according to the amount of CO2 produced by using crude oil, is about $45.95/t
CO2e. Assuming the accuracy of this calculation, and looking at the current market for CO2
credits in general and for REDD+ credits in particular, it is clear why countries with high costs
for reducing emissions would be interested in investing in developing countries still
contributing to the curbing of their domestic emissions.
5.2. THE EMERGING SCENARIO TOWARDS A POST-KYOTO AGREEMENT
How this emerging scenario reflects on an eventual post-Kyoto agreement is still pure
speculation. The path to COP21 in Paris is very uncertain though the coming months, towards
COP20 in Lima (December 2014), should help in refining the different ideas and ascertaining
the most ideal scenario for the future protocol. The position of the KA non-Annex I countries
will play an essential role in defining the agenda and will help scouting for opinions among
21
Annex I countries. One of the most pressing current issues is in fact the introduction of
binding emissions reduction for BRICS countries and the level of inclusion of developing
countries in the global picture; the lead argument of the USA for not signing the KA
(Halvorssen, 2007). While the issue of setting emission reduction targets for developing
countries has been on the agenda since Kyoto, the renewal of binding targets for Annex I
countries seems increasingly unlikely to happen despite the fact that possible alternatives to
this are still far from being clear. In this respect, the overall opinion of the key-informants was
very clear and leaving no doubt. If a general agreement involving the majority of parties is to
be anticipated, there is no way for any binding agreement to be reached. While the exclusion
of the United States from the KA has been compensated for by the strong position taken by
the European Union, a new deadlock on the same principle of ‘double standard’ is expected
to have a much more negative impact than in the past.
According to Nikhil Ullal, developing countries – and the largest emitters (e.g. India, China,
Brazil) in particular – must be included in the protocol and have a binding target (Ullal, 2013,
pp. 27-29) cancelling the long-standing distinction between developed and developing
countries. Ullal’s opinion is based on the analysis, supported by Green, that the growing
GHGs emissions in developing countries is predicted to exceed those of developed countries
by 2020 (Green, 2009).
According to Joy Hyvarinen – FIELD (Foundation for International Environmental Law and
Development) Executive Director – the post-Kyoto agreement is not the only issue on the
table of COP21 but the pre-2020 target needs a thorough discussion as well. While any post-
Kyoto agreement will be effective only after 2020, the ‘interim period’ still represents a critical
milestone for developed countries to show their commitment before insisting that developing
countries demonstrate theirs and to ensure the containment of GHG emissions before it is too
late (Hyvarinen, 2014b).
Looking at any possible scenario, an interesting analysis comes from Morgenstern (2009) with
what he described as a “Two Protocols Approach”: a combination of an amended Kyoto
22
Protocol for the signatory parties plus a new agreement, under UNFCCC, for any other new
signatory party. The “Two Protocols Approach” intends avoiding an eventual backtracking risk
due to a complete KA replacement. According to Morgenstern the complete replacement of
KA could potentially lead signatory parties to backtrack leading to a tedious and expensive
renegotiation phase. An amended KA will potentially minimize this risk, while enabling a scale
up to a new level of commitment. On the other hand, a new agreement for the “non-Kyoto”
countries has to be negotiated from scratch to ensure a global commitment to the reduction of
GHG emissions, ideally aimed at harmonizing the two agreements in the future. The dualism
of Morgenstern’s approach may solve in part the long-term issue of how to harmonize present
signatory and non-signatory parties, while at the same time could be penalized by the high
cost and complexity of a treaty duplication (Ullal, 2013, p. 37).
Alternatively, Joy Hyvarinen promotes a reconciliation process rather than a liability one, to
allow all parties to play their role in the negotiation towards and beyond the “2015 agreement”
(Hyvarinen, 2014a). This approach may help in overcoming the limitations of KA, and in
particular the binding target reduction that, despite being the main innovation and peculiarity
of the agreement, has clearly been the biggest barrier to its endorsement by some highly
relevant parties, leading – for example – to the exclusion of the USA.
5.3. ROLE OF REDD AND THE VOLUNTARY CARBON-MARKET
In this uncertain post-Kyoto scenario, the role of REDD+ appears clearer than ever. All parties
acknowledged the initial mistake made in lobbying for its exclusion from the KA and the
inclusion of REDD+ programmes seems now inevitable in any “2015 agreement”. What
remains still unclear is the future for VERs and its inclusion in the compliance market, partially
due to the collapse of the global carbon-market coupled with the complex certification process
of carbon credits from deforestation and forest degradation.
As strongly emphasised by the majority of key-informants interviewed, there is no way for the
two markets – compliance with its CERs and voluntary with its VERs – to merge and this is
generally seen as a positive point, rather than a limitation. One respondent, in particular,
23
suggests there could be fragmented markets under a common reporting system. Under some
systems, certain VER types and vintages may be accepted, albeit discounted. The supply-
demand gap recently experienced revealed the substantial risk of overproduction versus a
limited market demand, and in this respect merging the two carbon markets may only worsen
the current situation. At this stage, the most ambitious and realistic question is whether the
market is ready to accept REDD+ credits and what will be the risk of the price remaining at an
unattractive level, discouraging therefore the overall sector. The goal of the carbon-market is
ultimately the global reduction of GHG emissions. This has to be kept in mind while analysing
this issue, since the overall assumption behind the REDD concept is to create an incentive-
based strategy to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and thus GHG
emissions, and consequently contribute to the curb of climate change. The market for REDD+
credits may thus become an excellent tool to contribute to the reduction of one of the biggest
emitters of GHGs.
Considering recent studies (IPCC, 2013, pp. 19-20), the increase of the mean surface
temperature (MST) by 2°C expected by the end of the century has to be considered as more
than an overly optimistic target. Therefore, the need of reducing GHG emissions remains and
will have an increasingly central role in the coming years. As emphasized by Hyvarinen, the
pre-2020 is – if possible – even more important than the following period and no country is in
the position to wait another five years before taking action.
In this view, the voluntary market for carbon credits may be seen not only as an economic
alternative to deforestation and to promote biodiversity conservation, but as playing a central
critical role in the overall reduction of GHG emissions through sequestration, carbon stocking
and reduced emission from deforestation and forest degradation. The role for REDD+ within
the “2015 agreement” may thus be not only inevitable but central, and the market for VERs –
or any other future mechanisms to be included in – will be vital to the definition of any future
treaty. In this regards, the future and the role of forest people need to be addressed as well.
24
5.4. THE EMERGENCE OF THE ‘CARBON-GRAB’
The increasing potential market for carbon credits, despite the oversupply and collapse of the
unit cost being of concern in the international arena, is attracting the attention of decision-
makers and putting pressure on the most fragile segments of the society. Among these,
people living off forest products may eventually have significant benefits from forest
conservation and at the same time evident losses from a new generation of eviction and
exploitation of land tenure re-baptized ‘carbon-grab’.
The ‘carbon-grab’ phenomenon has recently attracted attention and speculation. It may be
difficult judging whether the contrasting opinions come from a hidden agenda or rather a
genuine frustration and concern aimed at protecting the interests of those who do not have
the power to speak and defend their own rights. The number of articles and opinions gathered
generally indicate an increasing awareness about the new generation of land grabbing and
eviction by private companies and colluded governments conceding extractive permits in
areas traditionally owned by local communities and indigenous minorities (Lyons and
Westoby, 2014). According to Andy White – Rights and Resources Initiative (RRI) – since the
REDD came to the scene, a slow-down in land recognition and community rights was
experienced compared with previous decades (White, 2014). Yet, a recent report from the
World Resources Institute shows a positive correlation between community or indigenous-
owned land and good land stewardship (Stevens, 2014). If proved, this could lead to a
revisited perspective for the scale-up of REDD+ programmes in favour of community-owned
areas.
Despite the large amount of published and unpublished information in this regard, the majority
of key-informants interviewed agree that the carbon-grab concept is mainly speculation by
activists. Directly citing one of them ‘carbon as a commodity has no value for the
communities’, since the financial benefits from the carbon-market or from REDD have never
been considered at their disposal.
Perhaps, a specific provision for land and community rights within the ‘2015 agreement’ will
25
help increase the effectiveness of REDD+ intervention protecting the fragile segments of the
society otherwise at severe risk of further exploitation.
5.5. CARBON-MARKET
While the committed funds, mainly Green Climate Fund and BioCarbon Fund, are supposed
to stimulate the REDD sector growth, the revitalisation of the market is deemed necessary to
ensure its sustainability in the long term. An eventual post-Kyoto agreement should therefore
encourage the promotion of a development model free from subsidies and the creation of
innovative mechanisms capable of revitalising the market and more friendly to all society
segments (i.e. indigenous minorities in particular and forest dweller communities in general).
REDD is significantly less valuable than the majority of the activities undertaken in the same
area (i.e. logging, farming, palm tree plantation, bioethanol). Therefore, it is essential for
REDD+ to represent an added value for local community, government and the society as a
whole in order to win the hard competition. While the integrity of the forest with its biodiversity
has its weight on this scale, it cannot be the only added value to promote its conservation and
to overtake other more remunerative activities.
If, as purposed by Richardson (redd-monitor.org, 2014), the price of carbon credits – being
CERs or VERs – were allowed to benchmark the daily cost of crude oil, and considering the
release of 0.32 tCO2e per each barrel of crude oil (Bliss, 2008), a unit cost per tCO2e of about
US$ 45.95 (amount subject to fluctuation due to the market cost of crude oil) could be
assumed.
Unfortunately the reality is far more bitter and while the actual cost is lower than US$ 1per ton,
the current willingness of the participants of the 10th Carbon Fund meeting (CF10) – held in
Bonn in June (2014) – was ‘to pay up to US$5/t CO2e’ (redd-monitor.org, 2014), which is nine
times less that the estimated cost based on the market for crude oil on the same day.
Confirming the difficulties of forecasting a ‘carbon’ price, among the key-informants only two
anticipated a hypothetical price for the interim period. The first, in line with the Carbon Fund
26
proposal, indicated 5 US$ per tonne of CO2 as the most likely price we should expect during
the interim period. The second, more focused to the REDD market and its overall tradability,
affirmed that a price of 20 US$ per tonne would be realistic. He added that a 1:1 influx of
REDD+ credits to other carbon-markets is unlikely to occur. At best, there will be a coupled
market, e.g. 1 REDD+ credit will be exchange for every 5 carbon certificates. This would
reduce the unit cost to a hypothetical 4 USD per tonne for REDD+ credits if compared to the
CDM.
In practical terms, the revitalization of the carbon-market – and of the voluntary market, in
particular – would be facilitated by the definition of a fair price able to incentivize companies
and governments to reduce GHG emissions on one hand and to empower the market of
credits on the other, but this is unlikely to happen. If the price is not increased to a minimum
reasonable price, the overall risk may be having an excellent theoretical tool with no practical
applications and irrelevant potential for scaling up. Moreover, the likely risk of collapse for the
many programs already active may leave many communities, as well as developing country
governments, with no other means than returning to the traditional use of forest resources
with a potential increase of slash-and-burn agriculture and logging to cope with the failed
investment they believed could have given a sustainable alternative to their livelihood.
27
Table 1: Comparison of key literature review vs. key-informants’ opinions
Literature review √ X Key-informants’ opinion
→ COP21 as the platform for reaching the ‘2015 agreement’
Paris will probably see the new ‘2015 agreement’ but it is improbable that a sound agreement will be developed and there is no room for a binding one.
√ The feasibility of an agreement is not at all
a precondition for having a solid treaty and even less for having a new binding agreement.
→ Inclusion of REDD in post-Kyoto agreement
There is no means for exclusion of REDD from any new treaty, although any offsetting mechanisms is still far from being identified.
√ The majority of the actors involved in
REDD are seeing its inclusion into any post-Kyoto agreement as inevitable.
→ Emergence of ‘carbon-grab’ phenomenon
There is general agreement on the negative impact the carbon finance is having to local communities and indigenous minorities
X
Oppose to the general opinion, the majority of the respondents were very sceptical about the real impact of the phenomenon describing it as a speculation.
→ Inclusion of voluntary market into compliance market
There is scepticism among the literature regarding the two – voluntary and compliance – markets and the possibility of a merge under the post-Kyoto scenario.
√ There is no way to incorporate the
voluntary market into the compliance. A new market mechanism has to be developed.
→ Forecast of carbon price
To forecast the price of carbon credit for the coming period is by now just highly hypothetical due to its dramatic fell in the last period.
√ Only two proposed what they defined the
‘most likely price’ for the interim period, highlighting the unlikeness of being possibly a measure of market.
Agreement between sources √
Disagreement between sources X
28
6. CONCLUSIONS
6.1. THE ROAD TO ‘PARIS’
There is still considerable confusion around the definition of whichever instrument will take
over from the Kyoto Agreement, despite time shortening for agreement on the right
compromise, which eventually will involve developed, transition and developing economies.
Although the deadline for a new agreement has been delayed to COP21 in Paris (2015) since
COP17 (Durban – 2011), still too many speculations are surrounding the potential for a sound
‘2015 agreement’ capable of tiding together all parties and uncertainties seem to govern the
scene.
The complex issue of renewing the approach adopted within the KA of having binding
emission reduction targets for developed and highly polluting countries appears very weak,
particularly considering the USA’s exclusion from the KA and the later withdrawal of Canada.
The possibility of a “Two Protocols Approach”, as purposed by Morgenstern, looks attractive
and at the same time may help narrow the expectation of all parties, regardless of the extra
costs linked to a treaty duplication that involved parties are unlikely to be prepared to pay.
Despite numerous speculations based on few solid signs, it is generally believed that a new
agreement will be drafted in Paris. It is unlikely to contain binding emission targets, but will
likely design the patch for the post-2020 climate change agenda.
6.2. POTENTIAL FOR REDD+ TO SCALE UP AND REVITALISATION OF CARBON-MARKET
As per the ‘2015 agreement’, the shape to be taken by the REDD+ sector is also highly
blurred, despite it seeming inevitable that it will play a vigorous role within the climate change
arena and the carbon-market, and eventually a prime role in any new treaty.
The future of VERs seems very unpredictable and not deemed compatible for merging with
CERs, but rather confined to the voluntary market. The role of this market is unclear, since it
is governed by speculation and limited to a very narrow segment of the society. In this regard,
29
and accepting that the ‘global commons’ are governed by economic principles, it may be
possible for a new treaty – emerging in the coming period towards Paris – to redefine an
incentive-based mechanism centred on the cost of polluting and the eventual paradox of
investing in emission reduction through REDD+ financing interventions.
The revitalisation of the carbon-market appears to be a feasible opportunity, despite the
tremendous fall in credit price, representing at present one of the biggest speculative factors
in regards to the efficiency and effectiveness of REDD+ operations.
6.3. CARBON-GRAB AND FOREST PEOPLE’S RIGHTS
The emerging phenomenon of the carbon-grab is, although controversial, an issue of critical
importance while discussing the future development and strengthening of REDD+.
As highlighted by some of the interviewed key-informants, to successfully scale up any REDD
programme and the voluntary carbon-market, a simplification and harmonisation of procedure
is deemed necessary. Therefore, if an integrated vision has to be promoted – with the post-
Kyoto agreement playing a prominent role in this regard – a provision for land rights and
tenure for indigenous minorities and local forest communities has to be discussed for its
integration into the treaty immediately. This will help to support the acceptability of REDD and
the overall understanding and appreciation of the carbon-market also to those who are still
sceptical about the concept of ‘granting a permit to pollute’. Moreover, it will support the
survival and the livelihood of those who live in and protect the forest and its biodiversity as a
means of supporting their livelihoods, implicitly boosting the REDD+ sector’s effectiveness.
6.4. LIMITATIONS
As for any literature review, the main limitation of the study refers to the predominant use of
secondary data and in particular of information retrieved from the internet and/or press. The
use of semi-structured interviews was deemed necessary to reduce, as much as possible, the
bias given by controversial information and, at the same time, allow for personal interpretation
and speculation on the matter narrowing the discussions to key essential points of concern.
30
As expected, contradictory information represents a large portion of the overall secondary
data.
Despite the significant amount of data analysed, the topicality of the study object – and the
related information in favour and against the proposed opinions – makes any final assertion
complex and open for critics, at least until COP21 in Paris when hopefully a new agreement
will be reached eventually ending any speculations regarding the ‘post-2020’ situation.
31
7. REFERENCES
ANGER, N. & SATHAYE, J. 2008. Reducing deforestation and trading emissions: Economic
implications for the post-Kyoto carbon market. ZEW-Centre for European Economic
Research Discussion Paper.
ARRHENIUS, S. 1896. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the
ground. London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science,
41, 237-275.
BLISS, J. 2008. Carbon dioxide emissions per barrel of crude [Online]. Available:
http://numero57.net/2008/03/20/carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-barrel-of-crude/
[Accessed 13 July 2014].
BODANSKY, D. & DIRINGER, E. 2014a. BUILDING FLEXIBILITY AND AMBITION INTO A
2015 CLIMATE AGREEMENT. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
BODANSKY, D. & DIRINGER, E. 2014b. Evolution of the International Climate Effort. Center
for Climate and Energy Solutions.
BODANSKY, D. & DIRINGER, E. 2014c. Issues for a 2015 Climate Agreement. Center for
Climate and Energy Solutions.
BUIZER, M., HUMPHREYS, D. & DE JONG, W. 2014. Climate change and deforestation: The
evolution of an intersecting policy domain. Environmental Science & Policy, 35, 1-11.
BUTLER, R. n.d. REDD [Online]. Available: http://rainforests.mongabay.com/redd/ [Accessed
10 Feb 2014].
BUTTON, J. 2008. Carbon: Commodity or Currency - The Case for an International Carbon
Market Based on the Currency Model. Harv. Envtl. L. Rev., 32, 571.
BW|BUSINESSWORLD. 2014. The Carbon Cycle [Online]. Available:
www.businessworld.in/news/business/environment/the-carbon-cycle/1223558/page-
1.html# [Accessed 21 Jan 2014].
CARBONCREDITCONTROVERSY. 2011. Forests in the Kyoto Protocol and REDD [Online].
Available: http://carboncreditcontroversy.wordpress.com/category/forests-in-the-kyoto-
protocol-and-redd/ [Accessed 11 Feb 2014].
CASHORE, GALE, MEIDINGER & NEWSOM 2006. Confronting Sustainability: Forest
Certification in Developing and Transitioning Countries. Yale School of Forestry and
Environmental Studies.
CHAN, M. 2009. Smaller, Simpler and More Stable Designing carbon markets for
environmental and financial integrity. Friends of the Earth.
CHITRE, S. P. 2013. Background, Analysis, & Solutions for Unfccc Cop-19 & Beyond. Analysis,
& Solutions for Unfccc Cop-19 & Beyond (October 16, 2013).
CLÉMENÇON, R. 2008. The Bali road map: A first step on the difficult journey to a post-Kyoto
protocol agreement. The Journal of Environment & Development, 17, 70-94.
32
COWLING, P. 2013. REDD+ Market: Sending Out an SOS. http://www.conservation.org/:
Conservation International.
CRAFT, B. 2013. The Least Developed Countries and Technology Transfer under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Has the Convention Addressed the
Stated Needs of the Vulnerable? , Brown University.
DALSGAARD, S. 2013. The commensurability of carbon: Making value and money of climate
change. HAU: Journal of Ethnographic Theory, 3, 80-98.
DENIER, L. & LAWRENCE, L. 2014. REDD+ Standards and the Supply and Demand Gap -
Event at Warsaw Climate COP Event [Online]. Global Canopy Program. Available:
http://www.globalcanopy.org/updates/blogs/redd-standards-and-supply-and-demand-
gap-%E2%80%93-event-warsaw-climate-cop-event [Accessed 04 Feb 2014].
ECOSYSTEMMARKETPLACE. 2014. 2013 Highlights [Online]. Available:
http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/pages/dynamic/article.page.php?page_id=1015
0§ion=news_articles&eod=1 [Accessed 06 Feb 2014].
ERVINE, K. 2013. Carbon Markets, Debt and Uneven Development. Third World Quarterly, 34, 653-670.
FCMC 2013. Emerging compliance markets for REDD+: An Assessment of Supply and
Demand. http://theredddesk.org/resources/emerging-compliance-markets-redd-
assessment-supply-and-demand.
FRIEDMAN, L. 2014. The diplomatic road to a new climate agreement may not end in Paris
next year [Online]. Environment & Energy Publishing. Available:
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059992850 [Accessed 21 Jan 2014].
FULLERTON, D. & STAVINS, R. 1998. How economists see the environment. Nature, 395, 433-434.
GOLDSTEIN, A. 2013. Unpacking Warsaw, Part Three: COP Veterans See Arduous Year
Ahead [Online]. Ecosystem Marketplace. Available:
http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/pages/dynamic/article.page.php?page_id=1009
4§ion=news_articles&eod=1 [Accessed 06 Feb 2014].
GOMERA, M., RIHOY, L. & NELSON, F. 2012. A changing climate for community resource
governance: threats and opportunities from climate change and the emerging carbon
market. Community rights, conservation and contested land: The politics of natural
resource governance in Africa. Routledge.
GREEN, B. A. 2009. Lessons from the Montreal Protocol: Guidance for the Next International
Climate Change Agreement. Environmental Law, 39, 253.
HALVORSSEN, A. M. 2007. Common, But Differentiated Commitments in the Future Climate
Change Regime – Amending the Kyoto Protocol to Include Annex C and the Annex C
Mitigation Fund. Colorado Journal of International Environmental Law and Policy, 18, 247.
33
HARDIN, G. 1968. The tragedy of the commons. The population problem has no technical
solution; it requires a fundamental extension in morality. Science, 162, 1243-8.
HARRIS, N. L., BROWN, S., HAGEN, S. C., SAATCHI, S. S., PETROVA, S., SALAS, W.,
HANSEN, M. C., POTAPOV, P. V. & LOTSCH, A. 2012. Baseline Map of Carbon
Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions. Science, 336, 1573-1576.
HOVI, J., SPRINZ, D. F. & BANG, G. 2012. Why the United States did not become a party to
the Kyoto Protocol: German, Norwegian, and US perspectives. European Journal of
International Relations, 18, 129-150.
HYVARINEN, J. 2014a. The 2015 climate agreement, legal issues, vulnerable countries and
communities [Online]. Available: http://www.field.org.uk/videos/the-2015-climate-
agreement-legal-issues-vulnerable-countries-and-communities [Accessed 20 June
2014].
HYVARINEN, J. 2014b. From here to Paris 2015 [Online]. FIELD. Available:
http://www.field.org.uk/blog/2014/03/14/from-here-to-paris-2015 [Accessed 17 March
2014].
ICAP 2014. Emission Trading Worldwide - Status Report 2014. International Carbon Action
Partnership (ICAP).
IFF 2014. Stimulating Interim Demand for REDD+ Emission Reductions: The Need for a
Strategic Intervention from 2015 to 2020. A report of the Interim Forest Finance (IFF)
Project.
IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and
III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
IPCC 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA.
KILL, J. & FENTON, E. 2010. Trading Carbon: How it works and why it is controversial, Fern.
KOŚĆ, W. 2014. COP19: The Cobblestone Road to Paris [Online]. CORNERSTONE MAG.
Available: http://cornerstonemag.net/cop19-the-cobblestone-road-to-paris/ [Accessed
06 Feb 2014].
LANG, C. 2014. Global carbon markets have shrunk in value by 60% since 2011 [Online].
Available: http://www.redd-monitor.org/2014/01/09/global-carbon-markets-have-shrunk-
in-value-by-60-since-
2011/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Redd-
monitor+%28REDD-Monitor%29 [Accessed 14 Jan 2014].
LEWIS, K. 2014. Carbon Grab—the Next Natural Resource Dilemma? Available:
http://www.voanews.com/content/carbon-land-resources-indigenous-people-grab-
34
rights/1890423.html [Accessed 14 April 2014].
LIN, L. L. 2009. Why we need to save the Kyoto Protocol. In: NETWORK, T. W. (ed.) UN
Climate Change Talks. Barcelona.
LUTTRELL, C., LOFT, L., FERNANDA GEBARA, M., KWEKA, D., BROCKHAUS, M.,
ANGELSEN, A. & SUNDERLIN, W. D. 2013. Who Should Benefit from REDD+?
Rationales and Realities. Ecology and Society, 18.
LYONS, K. & WESTOBY, P. 2014. Carbon colonialism and the new land grab: Plantation
forestry in Uganda and its livelihood impacts. Journal of Rural Studies, 36, 13-21.
MANIBO, M. 2014. REDD+ needs $12 billion boost to avoid failure: report [Online]. Eco-
Business - Asia Pacific’s sustainable business community. Available: http://www.eco-
business.com/news/redd-needs-12-billion-boost-avoid-failure-report/ [Accessed 05 Feb
2014].
MCCRONE, A. 2014. Value of the world’s carbon markets to rise again in 2014 [Online].
Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Available: http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/value-
of-the-worlds-carbon-markets-to-rise-again-in-2014/ [Accessed 06 Feb 2014].
MCGARRITY, J. 2014. EU set to propose 40% carbon reduction target for 2030 [Online].
Responding to Climate Change. Available: http://www.rtcc.org/2014/01/19/eu-set-to-
propose-40-carbon-reduction-target-for-2030/ [Accessed 21 Jan 2014].
METZ, B., CHANGE, I. P. O. C. & I., I. P. O. C. C. W. G. 2007. Climate Change 2007 -
Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press.
MOREL, R. & SHISHLOV, I. 2014. Ex-post evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol: Four key lessons
for the 2015 Paris Agreement. CDC Climate Report n°44.
MOREL, R., SHISHLOV, I. & BELLASSEN, V. 2014. Domo arigato Kyoto: Four key lessons
from the Kyoto Protocol for a new agreement in Paris 2015. CDC Climare Brief n°35.
MORGENSTERN, L. 2009. One, Two or One and a Half Protocols? An Assessment of
Suggested Options for the Legal Form of the Post-2012 Climate Regime. Carbon and
Climate Law Review, 235.
MUNDY, S. 2013. UN’s Green Climate Fund: much like a pension fund [Online].
http://blogs.ft.com. Available: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/12/04/uns-green-
climate-fund-much-like-a-pension-fund/ [Accessed 31 July 2014].
PETERS-STANLEY, M. & GONZALEZ, G. 2014. Sharing the Stage - State of the Voluntary
Carbon Markets 2014. Ecosystem Marketplace.
PETERS-STANLEY, M. & YIN, D. 2013. Maneuvering the mosaic. State of the voluntary
carbon markets 2013. A Report by Forest Trends’ Ecosystem Marketplace & Bloomberg
New Energy Finance, Washington, DC.
REDD-MONITOR.ORG. 2014. “Carbon Fund Participants note their current willingness to pay
up to US$5/t CO2e” [Online]. redd-monitor.org. Available: http://www.redd-
35
monitor.org/2014/07/02/carbon-fund-participants-note-their-current-willingness-to-pay-
up-to-us5t-
co2e/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Redd-
monitor+%28REDD-Monitor%29 [Accessed 12 July 2014].
RRI 2014. Status of Forest Carbon Rights and Implications for Communities, the Carbon Trade,
and REDD+ Investments. Rights and Resources Initiative.
SAVARESI, A. 2013. REDD+ and Human Rights: Addressing Synergies between International
Regimes. Ecology and Society, 18.
STEPHAN, N., BELLASSEN, V. & ALBEROLA, E. 2014. Use of Kyoto Credits by European
Industrial Installations: from and efficient market to a burst bubble. Climate Report. CDC
Climate research: Caisse Des Depots group.
STERN, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University
Press.
STEVENS, C., WINTERBOTTOM, R., SPRINGER, J. AND REYTAR, K. 2014. Securing
Rights, Combating Climate Change: How Strengthening Community Forest Rights
Mitigates Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
TASCHINI, L. & GREGORY, J. 2014. Without transparency, Europe's carbon market reform will
fail [Online]. Available: http://theconversation.com/without-transparency-europes-
carbon-market-reform-will-fail-27304 [Accessed 20 June 2014].
THEJAKARTAPOST. 2014. Govt deforestation to continue amid emission-reduction plans
[Online]. Available: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/08/16/govt-deforestation-
continue-amid-emission-reduction-plans.html [Accessed 16 Aug 2014].
THOMAS, C. 2010. Is the carbon market a truly great commodity market? [Online].
http://www.stabroeknews.com. Available:
http://www.stabroeknews.com/2010/features/05/23/is-the-carbon-market-a-truly-great-
commodity-market/ [Accessed 31 July 2014].
TICKELL, O. 2014. Forest Peoples at risk from 'carbon grab' [Online]. The Ecologist. Available:
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2325253/forest_peoples_at_risk_from
_carbon_grab.html [Accessed 26 March 2014].
TROPICALFORESTGROUP. 2007. A History of Climate Change and Tropical Forest
Negotiations [Online]. http://www.tropicalforestgroup.org/: tfg - Tropical Forest Group.
Available: http://www.tropicalforestgroup.org/a-history-of-climate-change-and-tropical-
forest-negotiations/ [Accessed 06/02/2014 2014].
ULLAL, N. R. 2013. A successor for the kyoto protocol-challenges and options. New Zealand
Journal of Environmental Law, 17, 81.
UN 1998. KYOTO PROTOCOL TO THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON
CLIMATE CHANGE. In: CHANGE, U. C. O. C. (ed.).
UNFCCC 2008. Bali Action Plan. In: UNFCCC (ed.) FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1.
36
UNFCCC 2009a. Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its fifteenth session. In:
UNFCCC (ed.) FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1.
UNFCCC 2009b. Copenhagen Accord. In: UNFCCC (ed.) FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1 2/CP.15.
UNFCCC 2014a. Modalities for national forest monitoring systems. Decision 11/CP.19.
UNFCCC 2014b. Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus In: UNFCCC (ed.).
http://unfccc.int/methods/redd/items/8180.php.
WALLBOTT, L. 2014. Indigenous Peoples in UN REDD+ Negotiations: "Importing Power" and
Lobbying for Rights through Discursive Interplay Management. Ecology and Society, 19.
WCED 1987. Report of the World Commission on environment and development:" our common
future.", United Nations.
WESTOBY, J. 1987. The purpose of forests: follies of development, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
WHITE, A. 2014. Can REDD+ work without land and carbon rights? [Online]. RRI - Rights and
Resources Initiative. Available: http://www.trust.org/item/20140317145708-02wks/
[Accessed 26 March 2014].
WUNDER, S., BÖRNER, J., SHIVELY, G. & WYMAN, M. 2014. Safety Nets, Gap Filling and
Forests: A Global-Comparative Perspective. World Development.
ZWICK, S. 2013a. Unpacking Warsaw, Part Two: Recognizing The Landscape Reality [Online].
Ecosystem Marketplace. Available:
http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/pages/dynamic/article.page.php?page_id=1008
9§ion=news_articles&eod=1 [Accessed 06 Feb 2014].
ZWICK, S. 2013b. The Year in Forest Carbon: Supply-Side Success, Demand-Side Dilemmas
[Online]. EcosystemMarketplace. Available:
http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/pages/dynamic/article.page.php?page_id=1013
1 [Accessed 06 Feb 2014].
37
8. BIBLIOGRAPHY
AKANBI, M. M., MUSTAPHA, M., IMAM-TAMIM, M. K. & ABDULKADIR, A. O. 2012. KYOTO
PROTOCOL: the market based benefits for Africa and the challenges of the dispute
resolution regime. Sacha Journal of Environmental Studies, 2, 33-47.
BEYENE, A. D., BLUFFSTONE, R. & MEKONNEN, A. 2013. Community Controlled Forests,
Carbon Sequestration and REDD+: Some Evidence from Ethiopia.
BLUFFSTONE, R. 2013. Economics of REDD+ and Community Forestry. Journal of Forest and
Livelihood, 11, 2.
BOLIN, A., LAWRENCE, L. AND LEGGETT, M. 2013. Land tenure and fast-tracking REDD+:
time to reframe the debate? Oxford: Global Canopy Programme.
BROWN, M. L. 2010. Limiting corrupt incentives in a global REDD regime. Ecology LQ, 37,
237.
BRYAN, B. A. & CROSSMAN, N. D. 2013. Impact of multiple interacting financial incentives on
land use change and the supply of ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services, 2013.
BUIZER, M., HUMPHREYS, D. & DE JONG, W. 2014. Climate change and deforestation: The
evolution of an intersecting policy domain. Environmental Science & Policy, 35, 1-11.
CARR, C. & ROSEMBUJ, F. 2008. Flexible mechanisms for climate change compliance:
emission offset purchases under the Clean Development Mechanism. NYU Envtl. LJ,
16, 44.
CHEN, J. & INNES, J. L. 2013. The implications of new forest tenure reforms and forestry
property markets for sustainable forest management and forest certification in China.
Journal of Environmental Management, 129, 206-215.
CRAFT, B. 2013. The Least Developed Countries and Technology Transfer under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Has the Convention Addressed the
Stated Needs of the Vulnerable? , Brown University.
DE SÉPIBUS, J. 2008. Linking the EU Emissions Trading Scheme to JI, CDM and Post-2012
International Offsets-A Legal Analysis and Critique of the EU ETS and the Proposals for
its Third Trading Period.
DEL VALLE, C., SAINES, R. M. & MARTIN, M. 2013. The Keys to Achieving Scale and
Effectiveness with REDD. Elements of a New Climate Agreement by 2015, 67-82.
DEN BESTEN, J. W., ARTS, B. & VERKOOIJEN, P. 2014. The evolution of REDD+: An
analysis of discursive-institutional dynamics. Environmental Science & Policy, 35, 40-
48.
DIXON, A., ANGER, N., HOLDEN, R. & LIVENGOOD, E. 2008. Integration of REDD into the
international carbon market: Implications for future commitments and market regulation.
The New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
DRIESEN, D. 2006. Links Between European Emissions Trading and CDM Credits for
38
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Projects.
DUFFY, D. C. 2011. No room in the Ark? Climate change and biodiversity in the Pacific Islands
of Oceania. Pacific Conservation Biology, 17, 192.
DUTSCHKE, M. 2013. Verification vs. Finance? Removing the negotiation roadblocks for
results‑based REDD+ activities. CIFOR infobrief n°66.
ELIASCH, J. 2008. Climate change: Financing global forests: the Eliasch review, Earthscan.
EVANS, K., MURPHY, L. & DE JONG, W. 2014. Global versus local narratives of REDD: A
case study from Peru's Amazon. Environmental Science & Policy, 35, 98-108.
FANKHAUSER, S. & MARTIN, N. 2010. The economics of the CDM levy: Revenue potential,
tax incidence and distortionary effects. Energy Policy, 38, 357-363.
FCMC 2013. Emerging compliance markets for REDD+: An Assessment of Supply and
Demand. http://theredddesk.org/resources/emerging-compliance-markets-redd-
assessment-supply-and-demand.
GHEZLOUN, A., SAIDANE, A., OUCHER, N. & CHERGUI, S. 2013. The Post-Kyoto. Energy
Procedia, 36, 1-8.
GOSCH, M. 2013. Community Forest Management: conditions for its success in the Maya
biosphere reserve in Petén, Guatemala. Environment and Sustainability, Enschede
(NL).
HODGDON, B. D., HAYWARD, J. & SAMAYOA, O. 2013. Putting the plus first: community
forest enterprise as the platform for REDD+ in the Maya Biosphere Reserve,
Guatemala. Tropical Conservation Science, 6, 365-383.
HUNT, C. & BAUM, S. 2009. The ‘hidden’social costs of forestry offsets. Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14, 107-120.
HYAMS, K. & FAWCETT, T. 2013. The ethics of carbon offsetting. Wiley Interdisciplinary
Reviews: Climate Change, 4, 91-98.
IQBAL, B. A. & GHAURI, F. N. 2011. Climate Change: The Biggest Challenge in 21st Century.
Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 41.
KANOWSKI, P. J., MCDERMOTT, C. L. & CASHORE, B. W. 2011. Implementing REDD+:
lessons from analysis of forest governance. Environmental Science & Policy, 14, 111-
117.
KAROUSAKIS, K. 2012. Incentives to reduce GHG emissions from deforestation: lessons
learned from Costa Rica and Mexico. OECD Papers, 7, 1-50.
KARSENTY, A., VOGEL, A. & CASTELL, F. 2014. “Carbon rights”, REDD+ and payments for
environmental services. Environmental Science & Policy, 35, 20-29.
KILL, J. & FENTON, E. 2010. Trading Carbon: How it works and why it is controversial, Fern.
LEDERER, M. 2011. From CDM to REDD+ - What do we know for setting up effective and
legitimate carbon governance? Ecological Economics, 70, 1900-1907.
LOHMANN, L. 2006. Carbon Trading: A Critical Conversation on Climate Change, Privatisation
39
and Power. Development Dialogue, 48, 362.
LUDEÑA, C., DE MIGUEL, C. & SCHUSCHNY, A. 2013. Climate change and reduction of CO2
emissions - The role of developing countries in carbon trade markets. ENVIRONMENT
AND DEVELOPMENT.
MCDERMOTT, C. L. 2014. REDDuced: From sustainability to legality to units of carbon—The
search for common interests in international forest governance. Environmental Science
& Policy, 35, 12-19.
MCGARRITY, J. 2014. UN climate deal could ‘revive’ offset market says CDM chief [Online].
Responding To Climate Change - RTCC. Available: http://www.rtcc.org/2014/03/03/un-
climate-deal-could-revive-offset-market-says-cdm-chief/#sthash.V9E8cic2.dpuf
[Accessed 3 March 2014].
MELO, I., TURNHOUT, E. & ARTS, B. 2014. Integrating multiple benefits in market-based
climate mitigation schemes: The case of the Climate, Community and Biodiversity
certification scheme. Environmental Science & Policy, 35, 49-56.
MICHAELOWA, A. 2014. Linking the CDM with domestic carbon markets. Climate Policy, 1-19.
MOLLINS, J. A. V., LOUIS. 2013. Bonn climate talks tackle emissions verification stumbling
block [Online]. FORESTS news: CIFOR. Available: http://blog.cifor.org/17406/bonn-
climate-talks-tackle-emissions-verification-stumbling-block/#.Ucknc-tR-1g [Accessed
25/06/2013 2013].
NDJONDO, M., GOURLET-FLEURY, S., MANLAY, R. J., OBIANG, N. L. E., NGOMANDA, A.,
ROMERO, C., CLAEYS, F. & PICARD, N. 2014. Opportunity costs of carbon
sequestration in a forest concession in central Africa. Carbon Balance and
Management, 9, 4.
NEEFF, T. & ASCUI, F. 2009. Lessons from carbon markets for designing an effective REDD
architecture. Climate Policy, 9, 306-315.
NEEFF, T., GÖHLER, D. & ASCUI, F. 2013. Finding a path for REDD+ between ODA and the
CDM. Climate Policy, 14, 149-166.
NHAMO, G. 2014. Africa’s Development, Climate Change and Carbon Trade: Whose Agenda
is it, Anyway? Trade and Industrial Development in Africa: Rethinking Strategy and
Policy.
OSBORNE, T. & KIKER, C. 2005. Carbon offsets as an economic alternative to large-scale
logging: a case study in Guyana. Ecological Economics, 52, 481-496.
PARKER, C., MITCHELL, A., TRIVEDI, M., MARDAS, N. & SOSIS, K. 2009. The little REDD+
book: An updated guide to governmental and non-governmental proposals for reducing
emissions from deforestation and degradation.
PETERS-STANLEY, M. & GONZALEZ, G. 2014. Sharing the Stage - State of the Voluntary
Carbon Markets 2014. Ecosystem Marketplace.
PFLIEGER, G. 2012. Kyoto Protocol and Beyond. In: FREEDMAN, B. (ed.) Global
40
Environmental Change. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
PHELPS, J., FRIESS, D. A. & WEBB, E. L. 2012. Win–win REDD+ approaches belie carbon–
biodiversity trade-offs. Biological Conservation, 154, 53-60.
REINECKE, S., PISTORIUS, T. & PREGERNIG, M. 2014. UNFCCC and the REDD+
Partnership from a networked governance perspective. Environmental Science & Policy,
35, 30-39.
ROE, S., STRECK, C., PRITCHARD, L. & COSTENBADER, J. 2013. Safeguards in REDD+
and Forest Carbon Standards: A Review of Social, Environmental and Procedural
Concepts and Application. Climate Focus.
SCHROEDER, H. & MCDERMOTT, C. 2014. Beyond Carbon: Enabling Justice and Equity in
REDD+ Across Levels of Governance. Ecology and Society, 19.
SHIFERAW, A., HURNI, H. & ZELEKE, G. 2013. The role of Indigenous Knowledge in Land
Management for Carbon Sequestration and Ecological Services in Southern Ethiopia.
Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4, 79-92.
SPELMAN, N. 2014. Together, We Save Forests: Rainforest protection must include bottom-up
approaches that engage the people living in the forests. [Online]. ensia.com. Available:
http://ensia.com/voices/together-we-save-forests/ [Accessed 25 March 2014].
STERN, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University
Press.
SUTCLIFFE, J. P., WOOD, A. & MEATON, J. 2012. Competitive forests - making forests
sustainable in south-west Ethiopia. International Journal of Sustainable Development &
World Ecology, 19, 471-481.
THOMPSON, M. C., BARUAH, M. & CARR, E. R. 2011. Seeing REDD+ as a project of
environmental governance. Environmental Science & Policy, 14, 100-110.
VARADARAJAN, D. B. 2014. REDD, Climate Change and the Rights of Tribal Communities in
India. Journal of Studies in Dynamics and Change (JSDC). 1, (1), 15-22.
41
9. WEB SITES OF RELEVANCE
Bloomberg New Energy Finance http://about.bnef.com/
BW | BUSINESSWORLD http://www.businessworld.in/news/business/environment/
Carbon Credit Controversy http://carboncreditcontroversy.wordpress.com/
Carbon Planet http://www.carbonplanet.com/
CIFOR http://www.cifor.org/
Climate Focus - REDD+ http://www.climatefocus.com/pages/redd_plus
Code REDD http://www.coderedd.org/
Conservation International http://www.conservation.org/
Cornerstone Mag http://cornerstonemag.net/
Eco-Business http://www.eco-business.com/
Ecosystem Marketplace http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/
Environment & Energy Publishing – eenews http://www.eenews.net/
FCMC http://www.fcmcglobal.org/
Forest Carbon Asia http://www.forestcarbonasia.org/
Forest Climate Change http://www.forestsclimatechange.org
Foundation for International Env. Law and Development http://www.field.org.uk/
Forest Carbon Partnership Facility – FCPF http://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/
Forest Carbon Portal http://www.forestcarbonportal.com/
42
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change – IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/
International Institute for Environment and Development http://www.iied.org/
Mongabay http://rainforests.mongabay.com/redd/
REDD+ Community http://reddcommunity.org/
redd-monitor.org http://www.redd-monitor.org/
Responding to Climate Change http://www.rtcc.org/
Rights and Resources Initiative – RRI http://www.rightsandresources.org/
SNV World – REDD+ http://www.snvworld.org/redd
The Ecologist http://www.theecologist.org/
The Global Canopy Program – GCP http://www.globalcanopy.org/
The Nature Conservancy – TNC http://www.nature.org/
The REDD Desk http://theredddesk.org/
Tropical Forest Group http://www.tropicalforestgroup.org/
UN-FAO http://www.fao.org/
UN-REDD program http://un-redd.org/
UNFCCC – Framework Convention on Climate Change http://unfccc.int/
Wildlife Conservation Society – WCS http://www.wcs.org/
World Resources Institute – WRI http://www.wri.org/
43