State-level political clans in Post-Lula Brazil (Slides for 2015 LASA presentation)

The Evolution of Clan Politics in Brazilian States in the Post-Lula Era:

Continuity, Dissolution or Re-formulation?

Prepared for delivery at the 2015 Congress of the Latin American Studies AssociationSan Juan, Puerto Rico

May 30, 2015

Daniel J. Epstein, Assistant Professor of Political ScienceColgate University, Hamilton, NY, USA

[email protected]

Daniel J. Epstein

Brazilian party system: the (recent) past

Brazilian Party-System Problems 1980s-1990s (Lamounier; Mainwaring; Ames; Desposato; Roberts & Wibbels):

Unstable, Inchoate, Volatile, ChaoticPoorly Institutionalized, Non-System

(Except PT)

● Which parties represent what ideologies? ● Parties don't last election to election. ● Voters don't feel linked to parties. ● Predominance of Personalism.

Daniel J. Epstein

Presidential Elections 1998-20061998

PCdoB PT PDT PMDB PSDB PTB PL PFL PP

Fernando Henrique Cardoso wins re-election

Daniel J. Epstein




2002


Lula defeats José Serra for presidency

Daniel J. Epstein




2002


Lula defeats José Serra for presidency

2006


Lula is re-elected, defeating Geraldo Alckmin

Daniel J. Epstein


PCdoB PT PDT PMDB PSDB PTB PRB PFLPP


2010

PcdoB PT PDT PMDB PSDB PTB DEM

PSB PPS PR PRB PP

Dilma defeats José Serra for presidency

Daniel J. Epstein


PCdoB PT PDT PMDB PSDB PTB PRB PFLPP


2010


PSB PPS PR PRB PP

Dilma defeats José Serra for presidency

2014


PSB PPS PR PRB PSD PP

Dilma is re-elected, defeating Aécio for presidency

Daniel J. Epstein

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Daniel J. Epstein

Daniel J. Epstein

State Political Dynamics Critical to National Electoral Competition

In 2014 Elections Dilma 2nd round margin of 3.5m votesIn 3 states won by Dilma (population order in Brazil):● Bahia (4th): PT won 3rd straight Gov election

● Dilma margin of victory 2.9m votes● Maranhão (10th): PT backed PMDB candidate who

lost to PCdoB● Dilma margin of victory 1.8m votes

● Rio de Janeiro (3rd): PT ran its own candidate● Dilma's vote exceeded petista by 2.2m votes in

1st round, 3.7m votes in 2nd

Daniel J. Epstein

Daniel J. Epstein

In 3 states won by Aécio (population order in Brazil):● Goiás (12th): PT ran its own candidate

● Dilma's vote exceeded petista by 700k votes in 1st round, 1m votes in 2nd

● Paraná (6th): PT ran its own candidate● Dilma's vote exceeded petista by 1.1m votes in

1st round, 1.5m votes in 2nd

● Santa Catarina (11th): PT ran its own candidate● Dilma's vote exceeded petista by 700k votes in 1st

round, 1m votes in 2nd

State Political Dynamics Critical to National Electoral Competition

In 2014 Elections Dilma 2nd round margin of 3.5m votes

Daniel J. Epstein

Daniel J. Epstein

Clans in the NortheastBahia & Maranhão

Antonio Carlos Magalhães (ACM)

● Control PFL, PMDB● Hegemonic Dep, Sen, Gov● Paulo Souto, Cesar

Borges, Otto Alencar Antônio Imbassahy, Luis Carlos MagalhãesMinor Clan: Carneiros (Feira de Santana), PDT

● João Durval Carneiro, João Henrique Carneiro, Sérgio Carneiro (PT!)

Sarney Family● Control PFL, PMDB● José Sarney President,

Sen Amapá → Roseana Sarney takes command

● Edison Lobão, Alexandre Costa, Ricardo & Jorge Murad (m. Roseana), João AlbertoMinor Clan: Jackson Lago (São Luis), PDT

● Also Tadeu Palácio?Wildcard: João Castelo

Daniel J. Epstein

2002-2006 Elections in Bahia(Lula elected, re-elected)

● 2002: PFL had broken w/PSDB, Lula wins big in Bahia, Paulo Souto elected Gov over Jaques Wagner (PT), succeding Cesar Borges—elected Senate, along with ACM re-elected to Senate

● 2004 Mayoral: João Henrique Carneiro defeats Cesar Borges in Salvador (PFL in Feira de Santana, PT in Vitória da Conquista)

● 2006: Jaques Wagner PT beats Souto 2nd round, João Durval Carneiro elected to Sen over João Alberto, Imbassahy breaks with ACM.Fall of ACM clan, Carneiro Clan on the Rise?

Daniel J. Epstein

2002-2006 Elections in Maranhão(Lula elected, re-elected)

● 2002: Lula wins big in Bahia, José Reinaldo Tavares (PFL) succeeds Roseana as Governor, defeats Jackson Lago

● 2004 Mayoral*:Tadeu Palácio in São Luis over João Castelo (PSDB), distant 3rd Ricardo Murad (PSB)

● 2006: Jackson Lago narrowly beats Roseana, sometime Sarney opponent elected to Senate in coligação w/Roseana (“marriage of convenience”?)

End of Sarney Hegemony,Jackson Lago clan on the Rise?

Daniel J. Epstein

2008-2012 in Bahia

● 2008: Carneiro re-elected Mayor Salvador over petista Walter Freitas, ACM Neto 3rd

● 2010: Dilma elected, Wagner big win, Otto Alencar defects ACM to be Wagner's Vice, Walter Freitas & Lidice da Mata (PSB) Sen coligação: Wagner Clan?

● 2012: ACM Neto Mayor Salvador over broad petista coalition. Next year, Carneiro's son Luis hired by Wagner's Chefe da Casa Civil, Rui Costa (PT)

Carneiros “down to” old João in SenateWagner incorporating them into his own clan

Daniel J. Epstein

2008-2010 in Maranhão

● 2008: João Castelo close 2nd round beats newcomer Flávio Dino (PCdoB), Lago's PDT in 3rd, no representative of Sarney clan runs

● 2009: Lago removed as Governor by TSE, Roseana (2nd '06) becomes Gov, Tadeu Palácio to work for her

● 2010: Roseana “re-elected” w/PT support over newcomer Flávio Dino (PCdoB, w/PSB), Lago 3rd place, Sarney allies Edison Lobão & João Alberto elected to Senate

Sarney clan “back on top”?

Daniel J. Epstein

Denouement in Maranhão:Programmatic “New Left” over Sarneys?

● 2011: Jackson Lago dies w/o clan successors● 2: PTC cand wins Mayor São Luis, with PSB vice

Roberto Coelho Rocha (son ex-Governor), PT cand backed by Sarney clan distant 4th

● 2014: Roseana retires, sarneista Lobão Filho loses to Flávio Dino, Roberto Rocha wins Sen, over sarneista Gastão VieiraDino & Rocha programmatic? Competitive?

Lago Dead, PT vinculado to dying Sarney clan?

Daniel J. Epstein

Bahia power base for an ambitiousJaques Wagner?

2014: Unknown Rui Costa, handpicked by Wagner wins in bad PT year, with wide colig (from PCdoB to PP), easily over Paulo Souto. Otto Alencar (PSD, sup PT) beats ACM clan cand Senate to replace old João Durval Carneiro, younger Carneiros out or PT

Feira de Santana, home of Carneiros, clan vote shift:

2002 2006 2010 2014

Wagner 89k 128k 133k 125k (Costa)

Souto 107k 97k 70k 105k

Wagner clan ascendant (2016 Mayor Salvador?)Wagner now Dilma's Defense Min: Future plans

Daniel J. Epstein

Conclusions:

● PT in Palácio Planalto did not replace clan politics with programmatic; PT plays the same game

● BA & MA previous big hegemonic clans transformed

● BA Wagner clan, MA a “New” (clean?) Left? ● What explains divergence? ● (Wagner charisma, skill—for Future Research)

Daniel J. Epstein

Conclusions:

● What about other states? ● RJ one new clan (Sergio Cabral) displaces two old

(Garotinhos & Cesar Maia), supports PT. ● GO, PR little change, PT support of one of clans● SC “family squabble” Raimundo Colombo & Paulo

Bornhausen, also Luiz Henrique's death.(more Future Research)

● For 2018 Elections, clan politics causal → National Party Alliance. Who plays best? PT? PSDB? (probably not “New” clean Left)

● Sources of stability in a Complex Party System?

State-level political clans in Post-Lula Brazil (Slides for 2015 LASA presentation)

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