S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd - Google Groups

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Yashas Bhat [email protected] +91 22 6635 1220 November 16, 2015 Buy S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd Industry: Fragrance and Flavor Industry View: Overweight Initiating Coverage Proxy FMCG PlaySHK is the largest domestic fragrance manufacturer with ~ 20.5% market share in the Indian fragrance industry and exports to over 52 countries. It is also an emerging flavor producer in India with ~ 2% market share and exports reaching 15 countries. SHK has over 4,100 customers which include leading national and MNC FMCG companies, blenders and producers of fragrances and flavors. Total manufacturing capacity is ~ 19,819 tons p.a. with 3 plants in India and 1 in The Netherlands. It has a research team of 18 scientists based in Mumbai and Barneveld. It also has 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists, evaluators and application executives at their 5 creation and development centers in India, The Netherlands and Indonesia. Its SHK, Cobra and Keva brands enjoy substantial brand equity. Strong reputation built on quality and continual R & D to help sustain market share. SHK is the 3 rd largest fragrance player in India with a strong reputation built over 90 years of its existence. With a solid business model, an 8,000 wide product range and effective sales & marketing capabilities as demonstrated by its 95 member robust sales team, we believe that SHK would be able to sustain its market share in the ~ ₹ 20 bn Indian fragrance industry which in itself has witnessed a CAGR of 10.1% over the last 4 years. Low financial risk on account of reduced leverage and no significant capex plans. SHK plans to use ~ 2 bn raised in its IPO to pay off its working capital loans and other long term debt. Also, SHK has already completed its capex cycle for the next 3-5 years with its Indian plants working at 35% - 45% capacity. Thus we expect that the repayment of significant debt post issue combined with an absence of material capex plans would ensure that financial risk is contained over the medium term. Favorable demand side dynamics continue to support the top-line. With a growing FMCG sector in Asia, North Africa and Middle East which constitutes ~ 83.7% of SHKs revenues, favorable demographics in place & customer diversity both in terms of low client concentration and ~ 43.5% of revenues coming from exports, we expect SHK to be an effective FMCG proxy. Potential upside offered by branded small packs and flavor businesses. SHK plans to deepen its distribution network, introduce new products and new application methods for its fragrance small packs business. With capacity available in its flavor manufacturing facility, established brand equity and a growing clientele currently over 400, we expect SHK to increase its market share in the flavor industry which has grown at a CAGR of 10.4% over the last 4 years. Outlook & Valuation We believe SHK to be a proxy FMCG play and should trade at premium valuations akin to FMCG companies. We initiate coverage on SHK with a BUY rating and a 15 month price objective of ₹ 280 (40% upside) Stock Data Current Market Price () 201 Target Price () 280 Potential upside (%) 40 Market Cap (bn) 29.4 Bloomberg SHKL IN Reuters NA Share Holding (Post-Issue) Fiscal YE YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenues 7,614 8,370 9,375 10,640 12,236 Material Cost 3,991 4,656 5,109 5,852 6,840 Others 2,252 2,521 2,834 3,181 3,579 EBITDA 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817 Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187 Other Income 78 233 80 96 109 EBIT 1,261 1,133 1,283 1,499 1,739 Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5 Tax 294 304 341 448 520 PAT 791 644 796 1,045 1,214 Key Ratios YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4 EBITDA Margin 18.0% 14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 15.0% PAT Margin 10.3% 7.5% 8.4% 9.7% 9.8% P/E 36.7 45.2 36.5 27.8 23.9 P/B 6.0 5.7 3.7 3.4 3.1 EV/Sales 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.3 EV/EBITDA 22.3 25.5 19.9 17.6 15.5 ROCE 22.9% 20.6% 16.3% 17.4% 18.5% ROE 16.4% 12.6% 10.1% 12.2% 13.0% Promoter & promoter group 56.7% Non- institutional 43.3%

Transcript of S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd - Google Groups

Yashas Bhat

[email protected]

+91 22 6635 1220

November 16, 2015

Buy S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd Industry: Fragrance and Flavor Industry View: Overweight Initiating Coverage

“Proxy FMCG Play”

SHK is the largest domestic fragrance manufacturer with ~ 20.5% market

share in the Indian fragrance industry and exports to over 52 countries. It is

also an emerging flavor producer in India with ~ 2% market share and exports

reaching 15 countries. SHK has over 4,100 customers which include leading

national and MNC FMCG companies, blenders and producers of fragrances

and flavors. Total manufacturing capacity is ~ 19,819 tons p.a. with 3 plants in

India and 1 in The Netherlands. It has a research team of 18 scientists based in

Mumbai and Barneveld. It also has 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists, evaluators and

application executives at their 5 creation and development centers in India,

The Netherlands and Indonesia. Its SHK, Cobra and Keva brands enjoy

substantial brand equity.

Strong reputation built on quality and continual R & D to help sustain

market share.

SHK is the 3rd

largest fragrance player in India with a strong reputation built over 90

years of its existence. With a solid business model, an 8,000 wide product range

and effective sales & marketing capabilities as demonstrated by its 95 member

robust sales team, we believe that SHK would be able to sustain its market share in

the ~ ₹ 20 bn Indian fragrance industry which in itself has witnessed a CAGR of

10.1% over the last 4 years.

Low financial risk on account of reduced leverage and no significant

capex plans.

SHK plans to use ~ ₹ 2 bn raised in its IPO to pay off its working capital loans and

other long term debt. Also, SHK has already completed its capex cycle for the next

3-5 years with its Indian plants working at 35% - 45% capacity. Thus we expect that

the repayment of significant debt post issue combined with an absence of material

capex plans would ensure that financial risk is contained over the medium term.

Favorable demand side dynamics continue to support the top-line.

With a growing FMCG sector in Asia, North Africa and Middle East which constitutes

~ 83.7% of SHKs revenues, favorable demographics in place & customer diversity

both in terms of low client concentration and ~ 43.5% of revenues coming from

exports, we expect SHK to be an effective FMCG proxy.

Potential upside offered by branded small packs and flavor

businesses.

SHK plans to deepen its distribution network, introduce new products and new

application methods for its fragrance small packs business. With capacity available

in its flavor manufacturing facility, established brand equity and a growing clientele

currently over 400, we expect SHK to increase its market share in the flavor industry

which has grown at a CAGR of 10.4% over the last 4 years.

Outlook & Valuation

We believe SHK to be a proxy FMCG play and should trade at premium valuations

akin to FMCG companies. We initiate coverage on SHK with a BUY rating and a 15

month price objective of ₹ 280 (40% upside)

Stock Data

Current Market Price (₹) 201

Target Price (₹) 280

Potential upside (%) 40

Market Cap (₹ bn) 29.4

Bloomberg SHKL IN

Reuters NA

Share Holding (Post-Issue)

Fiscal YE

YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Revenues 7,614 8,370 9,375 10,640 12,236

Material Cost 3,991 4,656 5,109 5,852 6,840

Others 2,252 2,521 2,834 3,181 3,579

EBITDA 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817

Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187

Other Income 78 233 80 96 109

EBIT 1,261 1,133 1,283 1,499 1,739

Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5

Tax 294 304 341 448 520

PAT 791 644 796 1,045 1,214

Key Ratios

YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4

EBITDA Margin 18.0% 14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 15.0%

PAT Margin 10.3% 7.5% 8.4% 9.7% 9.8%

P/E 36.7 45.2 36.5 27.8 23.9

P/B 6.0 5.7 3.7 3.4 3.1

EV/Sales 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.3

EV/EBITDA 22.3 25.5 19.9 17.6 15.5

ROCE 22.9% 20.6% 16.3% 17.4% 18.5%

ROE 16.4% 12.6% 10.1% 12.2% 13.0%

Promoter & promoter

group 56.7%

Non-institutional

43.3%

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

LKP Research 2

Company Profile

SHK is the largest domestic fragrance producer commanding ~ 20.5% market share

in the Indian fragrance industry with over 9,700 fragrances, fragrance ingredients

and flavors created, manufactured and supplied as on FY15. It has a long standing

reputation developed over its 90 year history as a supplier of quality fragrances for

use by FMCG companies in personal and home care products, food and beverage

industries with exports to over 52 countries. It is also an emerging flavor producer in

India with exports of its flavor products reaching 15 countries. SHK has a large and

diverse mix of over 4,100 customers which include leading national and MNC FMCG

companies, blenders as well as producers of fragrances and flavors. It has 4

manufacturing facilities, 3 of which are located in India and 1 in The Netherlands, the

total annual installed manufacturing capacity being ~ 19,819 tons. It has a dedicated

research team of 18 scientists operating out of their facilities located in Mumbai and

Barneveld. It also has a team of 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists, evaluators and

application executives at their 5 creation and development centers in Mumbai,

Bengaluru, The Netherlands and Indonesia. The SHK, Keva and Cobra brands

through which it sells its products enjoy substantial brand equity in India.

Brands of SHK

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

LKP Research 3

Proven track record, continual

introduction of new fragrances, high

product quality standards to help

SHK sustain its market share

Inelastic demand, high switching

costs and a diversified customer

base to support top-line

Investment Argument

Strong reputation built on high quality standards and continual R & D

to help sustain market share.

SHK is the 3rd

largest fragrance company in India by revenue, with a market share of

~ 20.5%. Its competitors are mainly MNCs such as Givaudan SA, Firmenich,

International Flavors and Fragrances Inc. and Symrise SA which collectively hold a

57.0% market share of the global fragrance and flavor industry.

Market Share of fragrance industry players in India.

Source:Company, LKP Research

SHK has always pushed its boundaries with new unique offerings to help enhance

user experience of FMCG products containing these fragrances. In FY15 itself, SHK

developed over 502 new fragrance and flavor compounds which have been sold

commercially. Its research team developed 12 molecules over the last 3 years, out

of which it has filed patent applications for 3. It combines its innovation efforts with a

strong quality control system which enables traceability and repeatability for each

batch of its products. This has led to a contribution of ~ 14.3% of revenues in FY15

from product launches of the last 3 financial years.

We believe that SHK has built a very strong reputation through delivery of quality

products and customer satisfaction in the 90 years of its existence. With a solid

business model, an 8,000 wide fragrance product range and strong sales &

marketing capabilities as demonstrated by its robust sales team of 95 people from 9

centers in India and overseas, we believe that SHK would be able to sustain its

market share in the ~ ₹ 20 bn Indian fragrance industry which in itself has witnessed

a CAGR of 10.1% over the last 4 years.

Favorable demand side dynamics continue to support the top-line.

The fragrance industry is primarily a niche market. Customers majorly include

FMCG players who mainly use these fragrances in the manufacture of demand

inelastic daily utilities like home and personal care products. This $ 47.3 bn Indian

FMCG industry which has witnessed a CAGR of ~ 13.0% from FY07 to FY15 is

expected to continue its stable growth phase on account of a large consumer base,

shift of households to a more aspirational lifestyle and a clear uptrend in the share of

non-food expenditure in India because of rising income levels. This coupled with

demand inelasticity is expected to drive demand in the Indian fragrance industry.

Givaudan 26%

Firmenich 21%

SHK 21%

Symrise 10%

IFF 7%

Others 15%

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

LKP Research 4

Demand Drivers in Indian fragrance industry.

Source:Company, LKP Research

Fragrance manufacturers are involved from an early stage of product development

and there is a requirement for consistency in its smell and quality. Most FMCG

companies depend on the reliability & quality of service of fragrance producers and

their knowledge & understanding of their products and needs. In addition to this,

fragrance procurement has a relatively small share in overall production costs for

FMCG goods. Thus, there is an element of customer stickiness on account of these

factors which helps fragrance producers in long term client retention.

Notable Clients of SHK for fragrance offerings

SHKs fragrance business has a diversified customer base of over 3,700 customers

consisting of leading national and MNC FMCG companies, blenders as well as

producers of fragrances. A distinct advantage it enjoys is low customer

concentration. Out of the net revenue from operations of ~ ₹ 8.4 bn and ~ ₹ 2.2 bn in

FY15 and Q1FY16E, revenue from SHKs largest customer was ~ ₹ 240 Mn and ~ ₹

88 Mn respectively. This amounts to only ~ 2.9% and ~ 3.9% of revenues from

SHKs biggest customer in FY15 and Q1FY16E. Thus, with a low concentration risk,

SHK has managed to effectively mitigate the adverse effect of client loss on its top-

line and bottom-line.

Revenues from exports form a significant part of SHKs top-line. Its revenues are

majorly driven by FMCG and fragrance consumption in emerging markets

comprising of Asia, Middle East and North Africa (A & MENA).

Home Care 21%

Personal Wash 15%

Fabric Care 11% Beauty Care

11%

Hair Care 11%

Others 31%

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

LKP Research 5

FY15 - Domestic and Exports Revenues FY15 - Share of A & MENA in Revenues

Source: Company, LKP Research

Q1FY16E -Domestic and Exports Revenues Q1FY16E- Share of A & MENA in Revenues

Source: Company, LKP Research

Low financial leverage and sufficient

capacity for the medium term to keep

financial risks subdued

Thus, with a growing FMCG sector in India and other emerging markets, favorable

demographics in place as well as customer diversity both in terms of low client

concentration and significant exports, we expect SHK to be an effective FMCG

proxy. We believe that the top-line of SHK will continue expanding at a considerable

pace which in turn may augment profitability.

Low financial risk on account of reduced leverage and no significant

medium term capex plans.

Out of the ~ ₹ 5 bn IPO issue in Oct ’15, ~ ₹ 3 bn was towards a partial exit by

Blackstone Capital and the remaining ~ ₹ 2 bn is to be used to retire working capital

loan and other debt of SHK and its subsidiary KV Arochem. With negligible debt and

consequent low interest burden, SHK would enjoy the benefits of reduced financial

risks and low leverage. This would help the company sustain its high growth phase

where its bottom-line has grown at a CAGR of 15.4% from FY11 to FY15.

Details of manufacturing plants of SHK

Location Annual Capacity (tons) Utilisation (%)

Raigad, Maharashtra 10,342 44.2%

Mumbai, Maharashtra 4,599 40.5%

Vapi, Gujarat 2,064 35.8%

Barnveld, The Netherlands 1,650 (metric) 77.2%

Domestic (₹ 4.7 Bn )

56.5%

Overseas (₹ 3.7 Bn)

43.5%

A & MENA (₹ 7.0 Bn)

83.7%

Others (₹ 1.4 Bn)

16.3%

Domestic ( ₹ 1.4 Bn )

64.1%

Overseas (₹ 0.8 Bn )

35.9%

A & MENA (₹ 1.9 Bn)

85.9%

Others (₹ 0.3 Bn)

14.1%

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

LKP Research 6

Branded small packs provides a

steady stream of cash flows

independent from FMCG industry,

flavor business is largely untapped

The company has 4 fragrance manufacturing facilities, 3 in India and 1 in The

Netherlands. The manufacturing facilities in India are working at a 35-45% capacity

as SHK has already completed its capex cycle for the next 3-5 years and is looking

to achieve economies of scale with increased demand and production. Thus the

repayment of significant long term debt post issue combined with an absence of

material capex plans would ensure that financial risk is contained over the medium

term, further cementing the case of SHK as an effective FMCG proxy.

Potential upside offered by branded small packs and flavor

businesses.

SHK also has a small pack fragrance business which it operates through its Cobra

brand. This business includes sales of its fragrance products in package sizes

ranging from 25 gm to 25 kg to several hundred traders and resellers spread

country-wide. The contribution of this business to the top-line is given below.

Pack Size

FY15 Q1FY16E

₹ mn % of Revenues ₹ mn % of Revenues

25 gm - 500 gm 512 6.1 183 8.3

500 gm- 25 kg 630 7.5 150 6.8

Total 1,142 13.6 333 15.1

Recognizing the potential of this revenue stream, SHK aims to deepen its

distribution network and introduce a new sales strategy which would include a

dedicated small pack sales team. With plans to introduce new products and new

application methods for its fragrance products in the small packs business, we

expect the Cobra brand to grow and support its top-line growth.

Snapshot of Indian Flavor Industry.

Demand Drivers in Indian flavor industry Share of market players in Indian flavor industry.

Source:Company, LKP Research

SHK is also an emerging player in the flavor industry with exports of this business

reaching over 15 countries. With a diverse portfolio of 1,100 flavor products, this

business has over 400 customers including manufacturers of beverages,

confectionary, dairy products, bakery products, pharmaceuticals, oral hygiene, etc.

It manufactures these products in its Raigad facility, details of which are stated

below.

Facility Installed Capacity Capacity Utilisation

FY15 Q1FY16E

Raigad, Maharashtra 1,164 34% 31%

Beverages 41%

Bakery 23%

Oral Hygiene

12%

Others 24%

IFF 21%

Givaudan 19%

Symrise 10%

Firmenich 6%

SHK 2%

Others 42%

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

LKP Research 7

Notable Clients of SHK for flavor offerings

SHK has a small 2% share in the Indian flavor industry which is dominated by global

leaders. With capacity available with SHK to take advantage of an industry growing

at a stable CAGR of 10.4% over the last 4 years, established brand equity with its

fragrance and flavor products and a growing clientele of its flavor products currently

over 400, we expect SHK to increase its market share in an expanding industry

thereby further augmenting its growth.

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

LKP Research 8

FMCG growth, continual R & D,

increased focus in flavor and small

pack businesses to drive revenues.

Financial Performance

Revenues

Revenues of SHK have grown at a healthy CAGR of ~ 13.0% from ~ ₹ 4.7 bn in

FY11 to ~ ₹ 8.6 bn in FY15 driven by consistent demand for its fragrances from

FMCG companies in India and overseas where it has a significant exposure in A &

MENA.

Revenues (₹ mn).

Source:Company, LKP Research

Efficient raw material sourcing

essential to maintain and improve

EBITDA margins

The fortunes of SHK depend of the level of FMCG consumption in India and

overseas. With average household incomes of SHKs target market expected to

significantly expand with an increasing share of disposable income, a favorable

population composition and expansion of modern retail formats, consumption of

FMCG products is all set to follow a healthy growth trajectory.

Also, in order to keep up with changing preferences of the ultimate consumer, SHK

consistently invests in research and development. It spent ~ ₹ 264 mn and ~ ₹ 62mn

in FY15 and Q1FY16E which comes to ~ 3.1% and ~ 2.8% of revenues respectively.

We believe that a scenario of a thriving FMCG industry, continual innovation,

introduction of new products, increased focus on developing its flavor and small

pack fragrance businesses would benefit SHK and help its revenues grow at ~

13.5% to ~ ₹ 10.7 bn in FY17E and ~ 15.0% to ~ ₹ 12.3 bn in FY18E respectively.

EBITDA and EBITDA Margins

SHK has been delivering decent EBITDA margins consistently from FY11 to FY15. It

witnessed a fall in margins from ~ 18.0% in FY14 to ~ 14.3% in FY15 primarily

because of increased material cost which went up from ~ 52.4% of operational

revenues in FY14 to ~ 55.6% in FY15. It sources ~ 40%-45% of raw materials from

countries like Indonesia, Germany, Brazil and US.

EBITDA (₹ mn).and EBITDA Margins (%)

Source:Company, LKP Research

4,670

5,740 6,677

7,692 8,603

9,455

10,736

12,345

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

838 1,044 1,180 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817

18.2% 18.3% 17.7% 18.0%

14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 15.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

LKP Research 9

Lower depreciation and negligible

interest burden FY17E onwards to

bolster PAT and PAT margins

Given the nature of fragrance and flavor industry, quality and specifications of raw

materials used in its products is of high importance. With long standing relationships

with its suppliers, we believe that SHK can economically source its raw materials.

Efficient material costs coupled with effective control of employee benefits and other

expenses are essential for SHKs sustainability in its margins. We expect that SHK

would earn absolute EBITDA and margins of ~ ₹ 1.6 bn and ~ 15.1% in FY16E and

~ ₹ 1.8 bn and ~ 15.0% in FY17E respectively.

PAT and PAT Margins

PAT and PAT margins for SHK stood at ~ ₹ 791 mn & ~ 10.3% in FY14 and ~ ₹ 644

mn & ~ 7.5% in FY15 respectively. This is the direct effect of an increased burden of

higher material costs and depreciation post significant investments in fixed assets up

to FY14. With SHKs capex cycle completed for the medium term and negligible

interest burden after repayment of debt post issue, we expect PAT and PAT margins

to steadily improve to ~ ₹ 1.0 bn & ~ 9.7% in FY17E and ~ ₹ 1.2 bn & ~ 9.8% in

FY18E respectively.

PAT (₹ mn).and PAT Margins (%)

Source:Company, LKP Research

Peer Group Analysis

SHK has no real domestic peer as the Indian fragrance and flavor industry is

dominated by a few global players like Givaudan SA, Firmenich, Symrise SA, IFF

etc. Comparative price ratios of SHK with its global peers are given below.

Particulars SHK Givaudan Symrise

Country India Switzerland Germany

Bloomberg SHKL IN GIVN:VX SY1:GR

P/E 36.1 31.6 35.7

P/S 3.4 3.8 3.1

P/B 3.7 4.9 5.2

315 412 616 791 644 796 1,045 1,214

6.7% 7.2%

9.2%

10.3%

7.5%

8.4%

9.7% 9.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

LKP Research 10

Risks & Concerns

Most fragrance and flavor companies are now placing greater focus on

emerging markets of Asia- Pacific, South America, Middle East and Africa due

to growing urbanization and changing lifestyles which is expected to directly

benefit FMCG companies and their fragrance & flavor suppliers. A trend of

increasing consolidation is also being witnessed in these emerging economies

with local established players being viewed as attractive acquisition targets.

This is leading to intense competition in these markets which can adversely

affect companies like SHK, with global players equipped with financial strength

and international expertise. This can be witnessed by the fact that Givaudan SA

has planned to invest FF 55 mn (₹ 3.7 bn) in a new manufacturing facility in

Pune, Maharashtra which is expected to be operational by FY18E.

SHK earns its revenues primarily from the FMCG sector. Thus, the fortunes of

SHK are tied to the prospects of this industry inspite of SHK enjoying a low

customer concentration. With events like the Nestle Maggi controversy having

the potential to shake up entire product categories across the FMCG industry,

this dependency may play out against SHK, especially where it is looking at its

flavor industry to give impetus to its growth prospects.

SHK has 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists and 17 skilled equipment operators. The

company depends on a few specialized employees, which may be poached by

its global counterparts, with better remuneration and the MNC appeal. SHKs

failure to acquire and retain right talent may adversely affect product

consistency, quality and its ability to introduce new fragrances and flavors.

~ 43.5% of its revenues come from exports, and ~ 40.0%-45.0% of raw

materials have been from suppliers outside India, exposing the company to

significant forex risks.

Outlook & Valuation

We believe SHK to be a proxy FMCG play and should trade at premium valuations

akin to FMCG companies. We initiate coverage on SHK with a BUY rating and a 15

month price objective of ₹ 280 (40% upside)

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

LKP Research 11

Financials (consolidated)

Income statement

YE Mar (₹ Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Net Revenues 7,614 8,370 9,375 10,640 12,236

Total Materials Cost 3,991 4,656 5,109 5,852 6,840

Employee Benefits 1,029 1,150 1,288 1,436 1,597

Others 1,222 1,371 1,547 1,745 1,982

EBITDA 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.0% 14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 14.9%

Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187

Other Income 78 233 80 96 109

EBIT 1,261 1,133 1,283 1,499 1,739

EBIT Margin (%) 16.4% 13.2% 13.6% 14.0% 14.1%

Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5

PBT 1,085 947 1,138 1,493 1,735

PBT Margin (%) 14.1% 11.0% 12.0% 13.9% 14.1%

Tax 294 304 341 448 520

PAT 791 644 796 1,045 1,214

PAT Margin (%) 10.3% 7.5% 8.4% 9.7% 9.8%

Diluted EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4

Cash Flow

YE Mar (₹ Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

PBT 1,085 947 1,138 1,493 1,735

Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187

Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5

Other income (78) (233) (80) (96) (109)

Change in Working Capital 105 6 (2,438) (671) (700)

Less: Tax (294) (304) (341) (448) (520)

CF from Operations (a) 1,181 896 (1,348) 488 597

Capital Expenditure (548) (169) (107) (125) (125)

Goodwill on Consolidation (121) 48 - - -

Change in /Investments 412 2 (25) (25) -

Other income 78 233 80 96 109

CF from Investing (b) (179) 114 (52) (54) (17)

Free Cash Flow (a+b) 1,002 1,009 (1,400) 434 580

Issue of Equity Shares - - 2,100 - -

Long Term Debt 214 (298) (361) (6) (6)

Interest paid (175) (186) (146) (6) (5)

Amalgamation adjustment (782) - - - -

Payment of Dividend (150) (149) (187) (260) (361)

DDT (25) (31) (37) (52) (72)

CF from Financing (c) (919) (664) 1,369 (324) (444)

Net Change (a+b+c) 83 345 (31) 110 136

Closing Cash and CE 414 760 729 839 975

Source: Company, LKP Research

Balance sheet

YE Mar (₹ Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 132 1,323 1,446 1,446 1,446

Preference Share Capital 9 92 - - -

Reserves and Surplus 4,669 3,688 6,402 7,135 7,917

Total Net Worth 4,810 5,103 7,848 8,582 9,363

Total Long Term Debt 689 391 29 23 17

Total Liabilities 5,499 5,493 7,877 8,605 9,380

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Fixed Asset 2,189 2,065 1,944 1,865 1,804

Goodwill on consolidation 828 780 780 780 780

Investments 2 0 25 50 50

Others 213 286 329 353 373

Current Assets

Cash and Bank 414 760 729 839 975

Inventories 2,788 3,175 3,552 4,050 4,705

Sundry Debtors 1,794 1,947 2,183 2,478 2,850

Loans & Advances 283 233 322 376 425

Others 4 42 51 45 41

Current Liabilities and Provisions

Trade Payables 879 1,016 1,127 1,277 1,518

Short Term Borrowings 1,149 1,745 61 13 -

Other Current Liabilities 739 738 558 572 628

Provisions 249 296 292 370 476

Net Current Assets 2,267 2,362 4,799 5,556 6,373

Total Assets 5,499 5,493 7,877 8,605 9,380

Key Ratios

YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Per Share Data (Rs)

EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4

CEPS 6.8 6.5 7.1 8.6 9.7

BVPS 33.3 35.3 54.3 59.3 64.7

DPS 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.5

Growth Ratios(%)

Revenues from operations 14.3% 9.9% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0%

EBITDA 16.1% -12.9% 19.9% 12.3% 13.1%

PAT 28.5% -18.6% 23.7% 31.2% 16.2%

Valuation Ratios (X)

P/E 36.7 45.2 36.5 27.8 23.9

P/CEPS 29.7 31.0 28.4 23.3 20.8

P/B 6.0 5.7 3.7 3.4 3.1

EV/Sales 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.3

EV/EBITDA 22.3 25.5 19.9 17.6 15.5

FCF/EBITDA 0.7 0.8 (1.0) 0.3 0.3

Profitability Ratios (%)

ROCE 22.9% 20.6% 16.3% 17.4% 18.5%

ROE 16.4% 12.6% 10.1% 12.2% 13.0%

Dividend payout 19.0% 23.2% 23.4% 24.8% 29.7%

Dividend Yield 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2%

S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

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