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Risk Analysis Framework - Centre for Food Safety
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Transcript of Risk Analysis Framework - Centre for Food Safety
1
陈君石 Junshi Chen, M.D.
Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,
Beijing, China
The application of risk assessment in food safety control in
mainland China
Risk Analysis Framework
Risk Assessment
• Science based
Risk Management• Policy based
Risk Communication
• Inter active exchange of information and
opinions concerning risks
FAO/WHO encourages member countries to develop national food control measures based on risk assessment, in order to assure proper protection level to consumers and facilitate fair trade.
This is particularly important for developing countries, because it is clearly stated in the SPS Agreement that: SPS measures should be based on risk assessment techniques developed by relevant international organizations.
Importance of risk assessment
As scientific basis for food standard development;
For setting up priorities in food inspection and control;
For evaluating the success of various food safety control measures; and
Important sources of information for risk communication.
Basic components of risk assessment
Hazard identification
Hazard characterization
Exposure assessment
Risk characterization
It is not necessary for each country to conduct own risk characterization.
However, it is necessary to conduct exposure assessment by each individual country, because exposure to food chemicals varies from country to country.
2
In mainland China, risk assessment of food chemicals has been applied in developing national food safety standards (e.g. heavy metals, pesticides residues, food additives, etc.) and assessing emerging chemical hazards in food (e.g. choloropropanols, acrylamide, dioxins etc.).
Examples of exposure assessment
Food additives
Dioxins
Choloropropanols - 3-MCPD
Acrylamide
Food additives
Dietary exposure of 10 common food additives was assessed using probabilistic model
Data – (1) food consumption data of 3-6, 7-15 and 20-50 year-old group from 2002 National Nutrition and Health Survey, N= 47,439. (2) maximum use level and national monitoring data of food additives.
Dietary intakes of each additive was compared with JECFA ADI.
Exposure assessment of saccharin– based on maximum use level(male, mg/kg bw/day)
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
bw
/day
)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
mean P 95 P 97.5
3-6 yr.
7-15 yr.
20-50 yr.
ADI 5 mg/kg bw/day
Exposure assessment of saccharin– based on average detected level
(male, mg/kg bw/day)
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
bw
/day
)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
mean P 95 P 97.5
3-6 yr.
7-15 yr.
20-50 yr.
ADI 5 mg/kg bw/day
Exposure assessment of saccharin– based on P97.5 detected level(male, mg/kg bw/day)
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
bw
/day
) ADI 5 mg/kg bw/day
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
mean P 95 P 97.5
3-6 yr.
7-15 yr.
20-50 yr.
3
Exposure assessment of sodium benzoate– based on maximum use level(male, mg/kg bw/day)
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
bw
/day
)
0
1
2
3
4
mean P 95 P 97.5
3-6 yr.
7-15 yr.
20-50 yr.
ADI 5 mg/kg bw/day
Exposure assessment of sodium benzoate– based on average detected level
(male, mg/kg bw/day)
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
bw
/day
)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
mean P 95 P 97.5
3-6 yr.
7-15 yr.
20-50 yr.
ADI 5 mg/kg bw/day
Exposure assessment of sodium benzoate– based on P97.5 detected level(male, mg/kg bw/day)
Exp
osur
e(m
g/kg
bw
/day
) ADI 5 mg/kg bw/day
0123456789
10
mean P 95 P 97.5
3-6 yr.
7-15 yr.
20-50 yr.
Study sites of Total Diet Study in China (2000)Study sites of Total Diet Study in China (2000)
South 2South 2
North 1North 1 North 2North 2
South 1South 1
Levels of PCDD/Fs and Dioxin-like PCBs in Chinese food (pg WHO-TEQ/g)
South 2South 1North 2North 1
PCBsPCDD/FsPCBsPCDD/FsPCBsPCDD/FsPCBsPCDD/Fs
0.010.0440.010.0410.0080.0230.0120.026Milk
0.090.1380.160.2760.170.1010.240.183Fish
0.040.0660.070.1230.040.0620.050.211Meat
0.070.1180.070.0540.040.0310.050.089Egg
Dioxins
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
Egg Meat Fish Milk Egg Meat Fish Milk Egg Meat Fish Milk Egg Meat Fish Milk
PCBsPCDD/Fs
North 1 North 2 South 1 South 2
Levels of PCDD/Fs and Dioxin-like PCBs in Chinese food (pg WHO-TEQ/g)
4
Dietary intakes of PCDD/Fs and Dioxin–like PCBs and contribution from each food group
(pg WHO-TEQ/person*/day)
8.11[37.6%]
0.21
3.94
1.92
2.04
PCBs
21.93[38.4%]
0.88
6.89
10.21
3.95
PCBs
3.88[42.8%]
0.55
1.55
1.02
0.76
PCBs
13.3[34.8%]
0.73
3.24
6.84
2.49
PCBs
South 2South 1North 2North 1
sumPCDD/F
ssumPCDD/FssumPCDD/Fssum
PCDD/
Fs
0.80(3.7% )
0.593.28
(5.7%)2.4
2.13(23.5%)
1.582.31(6%)
1.58Milk
21.613.45[62.4%]57.135.17
[61.6%]9.065.18[57.2%]38.1924.89
[65.2%] Total
10.43(48.4%)
6.4919.01
(33.3%)12.12
3.95(43.6%)
2.416.91
(44.3%)13.67Fish
4.86(22.5%)
2.9427.82
(48.7%)17.61
1.63(18%)
0.6112.06
(31.6%)5.22Meat
5.47(25.4%)
3.436.99
(12.2%)3.04
1.35(14.9%)
0.596.91
(18.1%)4.42Egg
* Adult male
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Egg Meat Fish Milk Total Egg Meat Fish Milk Total Egg Meat Fish Milk Total Egg Meat Fish Milk Total
PCBs
PCDD/Fs
Dietary intakes of PCDD/Fs and Dioxin-like PCBs in China (pg WHO-TEQ/person/day)
North 1 North 2 South 1 South 2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
North1 North2 South1 South2 Japan U.S. Holland Finland Spain Belgium
PCBsPCDD/Fs
Comparison of dietary intakes of PCDD/Fs and Dioxin-like PCBs between countries
(pg TEQ/kg bw/day)
Concentrations of 3-MCPD in foods from 2000 China TDS (µg/kg)
0.0NDNDNDNDAlcohol
0.0NDNDNDNDBeverages
0.0NDNDNDNDSugar
2.35.7NDND3.6Milk
48.416.738.412810.6Aquatic foods
16.8ND42.324.7NDEgg
36.830.074.534.58.3Meat
1.14.5NDNDNDFruits
16.410.122.923.78.7Vegetables33.440.48.618.066.4Legumes
12.84.05.242.0NDPotatoes
3.46.63.3ND3.7Cereals
Average North 2North 1South 2South 1Food
choloropropanols
Comparison on dietary intakes of 3-MCPD among countries
% PMTDIRegion
741.48Holland
10.5%~40.50.21~0.81Australia
14.0%~16.40.29~0.34China average
12.9%~13.50.27~0.27North 2
16.4%~18.40.35~0.39North 1
15.1%~20.10.32~0.42South 2
10.2%~12.30.21~0.26South 1
µg/kg bw/day Study in Beijing
Subjects – 15-55 years-old, N=315
Food items – fried potato products, fried wheat flour sticks, instant noodle, traditional Chinese snacks, biscuits, pastries and breads, coffee (instant) and chocolate. N=150.
Acrylamide
5
12511811197214374Complimentary foods
999876ND6Infant formula, milk
373737361015ND10Infant formula, rice
536.0486.6437.3338.6153.5189.8238Chocolate
396.0390.2384.4372.995.0164.3478Coffee
191.0148.0104.953.220.032.6ND15.0Cakes, breads
1569.01385.71202.4835.8183.0367.4ND13Biscuits
734.0543.4433.2321.448.0111.7ND50Chinese snacks
145.0118.792.4856.36.524.3ND14Instant noodles
197.0186.5176155.063.579.1138Fried wheat sticks
5269.03435.43015.21743.8409.5751.7ND50Fried potato
Max.P97.5P95P90P50MeanMin.NFood
Concentrations of acrylamide in foods, µg/kg Dietary intakes of acrylamide(µg/kg bw/day)
Food consumption(g/d)
Contamination level (µg/kg)
6.745.452.770.201.14P97.5
5.684.582.330.160.97P95
3.833.071.570.110.66P90
0.800.620.340.020.15P50
1.611.260.660.050.29Mean
P97.5P95P90P50Mean
Contribution of various types of food to total dietary exposure of acrylamide (%)
64.862.964.856.262.3Cereal (2~5)6.16.57.314.69.5Chocolate3.33.85.36.05.5Coffee5.54.53.20.83.6Cakes, breads26.126.727.126.127.7Biscuits24.222.724.616.219.9Chinese snacks4.64.23.71.93.7Instant noodles4.44.86.211.27.4Fried wheat sticks25.926.722.623.322.6Fried potato
P97.5P95P90P50meanFood
MOE calculation based on JECFA approach (carcinogenicity)
1,034 (general population) 0.29*
186 (high consumers) 1.61**
MOEDietary intakes
(μg /kg bw/day )
* Mean concentration x Mean consumption ** Mean concentration x P 97.5 consumption
Study sites of Total Diet Study in China (2000)Study sites of Total Diet Study in China (2000)
South 2South 2
North 1North 1 North 2North 2
South 1South 1
Composite food samples:
Cereal
Legume
Nuts
Tuber
Meat & poultry
Egg
Sea food
Dairy
Vegetable
Fruit
Sugar
Beverage
Alcohol drinks
Water
6
Acrylamide content of food in 2000 TDS(µg/kg)
0.00.75.60.015.00.01.80.00.016.46.71.6
Average
(lower
limit)
ND0.65.1ND25.9ND3.4NDND15.46.2NDNorth 2
ND0.54.5ND19.3ND1.5NDND23.614.12.1North 1
ND1.287.0ND8.3NDNDNDND18.03.23.9South 2
ND0.525.8ND6.4NDNDNDND8.63.2NDSouth 1
Beve-
ragesAlcoholSugarFruitsVeg.Milk
Aquatic
foodsEggMeatTubersLegumeCerealRegion
Vegetables, tubers, cereals and
legumes accounted for 78% of
total acrylamide intake.
Exposure assessment and MOE calculation
2,1430.14China, average
1,5790.19North 2
1,5000.20North 1
2,7270.11South 2
5,0000.06South 1
MOEExposure
(µg/kg bw/day)Region
Comparison of China and JECFA evaluation
—2,143—0.14TDS
1861,0341.610.29Beijing
China
7530041JECFA
High consumer
General population
High consumer
General population
MOEAA intake (μg /kg bw/day )
SummaryThe application of risk assessment in food safety control in mainland China has just started. It is necessary to follow the international practice to conduct national RA and learned experience from developed countries.
Provisions on risk assessment should be specified in the national food legislation and independent expert risk RA bodies need to be established.