Reducing India's energy and carbon footprint

ROLE OF TRANSPORT SECTOR

1

Reducing India’s energy and carbon footprint

Akshima T GhateFellow and Associate Director, TERI

Presentation at the India – Japan Energy Forum “2017”New Delhi

Transport sector: Increasing share in total energy consumption

2

Transport will be the second fastest growing sector in terms of energy use after commercial sector

Source: IESS2047 Results

2011-12 2031-32

Total energy demand 424 mtoe 1,019 mtoe

Transport sector’s energy demand

80 mtoe(19%)

253 mtoe(25%)

2.4 times increase

3.2 times increase

5%

48%

19%

5%1%

22%

Energy Demand - 2011-12

9%

54%

25%

5%

2%

5%

Energy Demand - 2031-32

Buildings

Industry

Transport

Pumps& Tractors

Telecom

Cooking

Transport sector: Heavy dependence onliquid hydrocarbons

3


2011-12 2031-32

Transport sector’s share in consumption of liquid

hydrocarbons48% 61%

Transport sector will have the maximum share in liquid hydrocarbon consumption in 2031-32

26%

61%

4%

6%3%

Sectoral share in liq. hydrocarbon consumption (2031-32)

Buildings

Industry

Transport

Cooking

Agriculture

Telecom

Road transport sector: Largest consumer of energy within transport

4

Road transport consumes over 90% of the energy within transport sector

2011-12 2031-32

4

Source: TERI’s Transport Model Results

93%

3% 3% 1%

93%

2% 3% 2%

RoadRailAirWater

Rapid motorization: A key reason for increasing oil dependence

5

Number of on-road vehicles expected to quadruple by 2031-32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2001-02 2011-12 2021-22 2031-32

Mill

ion

Number of vehicles (on-road)

HCV/LCV

Bus

3W

Taxis

Cars

2W

39

106

238

451

Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results

9%

90%

1%

Fuel basket for transport not diversified

6

2011-12 2031-32

Very low penetration of alternative fuels like electricity and biofuels

6


80 mtoe

6%

92%

2%

Electricity

LiquidhydrocarbonsGaseoushydrocarbons

253 mtoe

Why should this concern us? (1)7

Because,Oil import dependence will increase from current level of 76% (of 160 mtoe) in 2011-12 to 91% (of 524 mtoe) in 2031-32

Oil import bill will rise from Rs. 5.6 trillion in 2011-12 to Rs. 32.5 trillion in 2031-32*

Issues related to geopolitical instability

*Costs as of 2011 prices



Share of transport in total CO2 emissions will increase from 15% in 2011-12 to 19% in 2031-32Transport sector will witness fastest growth in CO2 emissions

3% 1%

36%

42%

3%

15%2% 1%

37%

40%

1%

19%

Agriculture

Commercial

Industry

Power

Residential

Transport

2011-12 2031-32


1,650 million tonnes 5,301 million tonnes


Impact of vehicular emissions on air quality will increase; most cities exceed the ambient air quality standards set by the Govt. of India In 2011-12, mortality from PM 2.5 was estimated to be 5.73 lakhsAir quality projected to worsen in the BAU scenario – increase in mortality expected torise to 33.6 lakhs by 2031-32

More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM

Source: CPCB, NAMP data

Can we reduce transport sector’s oil consumption?10

Need to move away from Business As Usual (BAU) to reduce transport sector’s oil

consumption

How to move away from BAU? 11

Improve efficiencies in road sector

Promote coastal shipping and IWT

Promote initiatives to improve market share of railways

Promote inter-modal shift from road to more energy efficient modes

12

Road sector

Set fuel efficiency standards and streamline I&M regime

13

Actions neededOperationalize and advance fuel efficiency standards for cars Introduce fuel efficiency standards for two wheelers and heavy duty vehicles at the earliest; Japan, USA, Canada and China have already started implementing standards for HDVs

HDVs and two wheelers responsible for 50% of transport sector’s total energy consumption in 2011-12; share expected to increase to 60% by 2031-32

Establish computerised and robust Inspection and Certification centresIn the interim, audit and strengthen PUC centres

Modernize truck fleet and organize trucking industry

14

Key issuesHighly fragmented and unorganized industryFleet – largely old and low-techLow productivity – 300-500 km/day; international - ~1,000 km/dayAverage fuel efficiency – 2.5 km/l

Improvements neededRestructure industry and promote fleetsIntroduce energy efficient multi-axle trucks (MATs)

MATs - range from 26.2 ton to 49 ton; every extra axle increases capacity by 5 to 7 tons and increases fuel efficiency

Emphasize logistics planningEstablish systems for electronic processing of driver and cargo related information at state check points/toll gates to facilitate seamless movement

Improve efficiency of SRTUs

15

Current status • Nearly 40 SRTUs• Current efficiency levels of SRTUs – ~3.5 kmpl (2012-13)• Best performing SRTUs - ~5.5 kmpl

– TN STC, GSRTC, North Eastern and North Western Karnataka RTC, UPSTRC• Potential for remaining 30 SRTUs to improve fuel efficiency by 2-2.5 kmpl

Improvements needed• Incentivize SRTUs to improve fuel efficiency

– Rationalize routes– Impart driver training– Modernize fleet and promote use of alternate fuels like biofuels and electricity

Introduce alternate fuels – electricity and biofuels16

Negligible penetration of electricity and biofuels in road transport Suggested targets (2011-12 to 2031-32)

Increase share of electricity in transport fuels from 1% to 4% and biofuels from 0% to 20%

Impact by 2031-3218% of energy consumption in transport by 2031-32 could be met by biofuels (15%) and electricity (3%)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

RES ESA RES ESA RES ESA

2011/12 2021/22 2031/32

Electricity

Bio fuels

CNG

Petroleum Fuel


RES - Reference Energy Scenario

ESA – Energy Security Ambitious Scenario

Promote shift from private to public transport modes (1)17

Source - http://movabilityaustin.org/

Promote shift from private to public transport modes (2)18

Mass/public transport modes – highly fuel efficient on a passenger km (pkm) basis as compared to private transport modes (cars and two-wheelers)Need to promote use of public transport in cities

Source: TERI’s LCA study

86.4208.5

467.5

1870.0

2343.3

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

Metro rail -Delhi

Urban bus -Average

Two wheeler Petrol car Diesel car

kJ/p

km

Energy consumption (kJ/pkm)

19

Coastal shipping and IWT

Promote costal shipping and IWT

Current statusPotential for water transport not exploitedWater transport share - only 6% in the total freight traffic as against 30% in China and about 14% in the USA

Actions neededSet up dedicated ports and dedicated terminals in major ports for coastal shippingConnect ports to freight corridors and national highwaysMake necessary policy/legislative changes to provide for preferential treatment for coastal vessels Invest in IWT infrastructure, including IWT terminals Promote inter-modal integration of IWT networks with road and rail

20

21

Railways

Energy consumption in Railways – current status22

Indian Railways - single largest energy consuming organisation in the country

Energy consumption for traction - 2.7 billion litres of diesel and 13.9 billion kWh of electricity (2012-13)Energy consumption for non-traction purposes – 0.047 billion litres of diesel and 2.48 billion kWh of electricity

In 2012-13, Indian railways spent 18.02% of its gross earnings on fuel

Fuel accounted for 26.5% of the total Ordinary Working Expenses

Large variation in energy efficiency of various Zonal Railways

Need to increase the market share of railways (1)

Share of railways in freight traffic expected to decline from 39% in 2011-12 to 30% in 2031-32

23

7

17

38

83

51%

61%65%

70%

49%

39%35%

30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2001-02 2011-12 2021-22 2031-32

BTKM

(in

100s

)

Perc

enta

ge sh

are

Total BTKM

Road share

Rail share

Air share

Freight traffic

Source: TERI’s ~transport model results

Need to increase the market share of railways (2)24

Share of railways in passenger traffic declined from 19% in 2001-02 to 14% in 2011-12; likely to remain stagnant at this level till 2031-32

26

72

138

21481%

85% 84% 84%

19%14% 14% 15%

0

50

100

150

200

250

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2001-02 2011-12 2021-22 2031-32

BPKM

(in

100s

)

Perc

enta

ge sh

are

Total BPKM

Road share

Rail share

Air share

Passenger traffic

Source: TERI’s transport model results

Need to increase the market share of railways (3)25

National Transport Policy Committee, 1980 had recommended increasing the railway share to more than 72% in freight traffic , primarily on energy security considerations; National Transport Development Policy Committee, 2014 has reiterated the recommendationTrends have been opposite; railways are unable to meet the entire traffic demandUrgent need to arrest decline in railways’ share

Augment capacity of railwaysIntroduce High Speed RailImplement Regional Rapid Rail Transit ProjectsPromote introduction of private freight operators in commodities where the railways share is small/non-existentIncrease investment in railways

High Speed Rail (HSR) - Advantages

26

Data for Europe

Need to select HSR corridors rationally27

Findings of TERI’s study of two potential HSR corridors (Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Pune and Chennai-Bangalore-Coimbatore)

Will help in achieving energy savings - however the level of savings would depend on the nature of modal shifts

Introduction of HSR may not result in decreased emissions in all cases

Electricity generation from fuels like coal could reduce the overall benefits of HSR

Selection of HSR corridors should be done on a case by case basis after understanding the traffic patterns along each section

Promote energy efficiency in non-traction28

Railways have initiated several measures to promote energyefficiency in non-traction, therefore electricity consumption isnearly stagnant

However, still there is scope for improvement

According to TERI’s study, energy saving potential is around31% in non-traction by application of various energyconservation measures in lighting and air conditioningsystems

Promote use of renewable energy in railways29

IR Vision 2020 proposes to use at least 10% energy from renewable sources

2011-12 was declared as the ‘Year of Green Energy’ by IR– several renewable energy projects initiated by IR

Ample potential to replace conventional energy sources with renewable-based energy in IR – Need for a clear roadmap

Promote inter-modal shift

30

Even as investments are made in water and rail transport, there is a need to incentivize shift from road transport to rail and water

Necessary to design specific strategies to effect targeted shifts from road to rail and waterIn EU, the Marco Polo program being implemented to promote a switch of freight traffic to greener transport modes

Subsidy provided for every 500 tkm of freight shifted off roads

Estimate for energy reduction in Energy Security Ambitious Scenario (ESA) in TERI’s MARKAL Model: Assumptions

Continuous vehicle efficiency improvement (1-1.5% per annum)Natural gas seen as a bridge fuel while moving towards electric vehicles Higher penetration of electric vehicles (two wheelers, three wheelers, and cars) Higher penetration of biofuels; development and use of second and third generation biofuels also takes placesShare of public transport based passenger movement is 75% in 2031/32 (53% in RES) Demand side measures: 5% reduction in motorized passenger transportation demandShare of rail in freight movement (50% by 2031/32 as compared to 30% in RES) Share of rail in passenger movement (20% by 2031/32 as compared to 15% in RES) Share of electricity in rail based freight movement - 80% by 2031/32 as compared to 70% in RES; in passenger movement - 60% in 2031/32 as compared to 52 % in RES

31

Impact of all interventions – Reductions in petroleum consumption by 2031-32

32

43% reduction possible in petroleum consumption in transport sector by 2031-32 (from 344 mtoe in base case (RES) to 195 mtoe)


49

25

2219

33

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400m

toe

RES ESA

TERI’s work in transport sector33

Some typical studies34

Macro modelling of transport demand, energy consumption and CO2 emissionsCurrently working on special issue of TERI’s Energy Security Outlook on transportPrepared transport energy calculator for Planning Commission

Policy and economic feasibility studies on electric mobilityCurrently carrying out a cost benefit analysis of introducing hybrid/electric buses in the fleet of GSRTC and MTC

Energy and emissions impact analysis for inter-modal shiftCarried out study on impact of shift to high speed rail for ITPS, Japan

Life cycle energy and emission analysis for transport modesStudy carried out for the National Transport Development Policy Committee

Studies related to vehicular emissions and air pollutionStudies carried out for CPCB, MoEF, World Bank

Policy and technical studies on fuel efficiency standards Impact of subsidy removal in diesel on car ownership and useStudy on fare elasticity for DMRCPolicy studies related to sustainable urban transport – promoting sustainable urban transport planning, promoting cycling, improving informal transport modes

35

Thank you

Reducing India's energy and carbon footprint

Documents

Transcript of Reducing India's energy and carbon footprint