coherence in the

post-2015 agenda

Anne Siders, J.D.

PhD Candidate, Stanford University

siders@Stanford.edu

Workshop on Disaster and Environmental Law

21-22 May 2015

Stanford Law School

Post-2015 Agenda

• World Conference Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR)

• Summit to Adopt the Sustainable Development Agenda (SDG)

• UNFCCC COP 21 / Kyoto CMP 11

Why coherence?

Disaster Risk

Reduction

Climate Change

Sustainable Development

Possible Maladaptation

Slow onset changes__

+ increased disasters

Damage, Mortality, Loss of Livelihoods

Increased Exposure+ Vulnerability

Calls for Coherence

1992 – UNFCCC • Article 4.8d special attention to areas prone to natural hazards

2004 – Inter-Agency Working Group on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction

2005 – Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015• Climate change as driver; Need to consider in DRR efforts

2007 – Bali Action Plan 2007 • Enhanced consideration of disaster reduction in vulnerable countries

2008 – Subsidiary Body for Science and Technological Advice (SBSTA)• Reports on integration of DRR and CCA in National Policies

2010-2011 – UNFCCC Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Collaborative Action • Common framework for CCA and DRR urged in 2012

2012 – UNISDR partners with IPCC – Special Report on Extreme Events (SREX)

Implementation Stalled

Scale – Temporal + Spatial

Norms

Top Down v Bottom-Up

Rhetoric + Narratives

Uncertainty

Scope

See, e.g., Sperling + Szekely (UNISDR, 2005); Schipper + Pelling (2006); Warner et al (2009); Birkmann + von Teichman(2010); Solecki et al. (2011); Mitchell et al (IDS, 2010); Gero + Meheux (2010); Ireland (2010) …

Different Moral Bases

Numerous Institutions - Uncoordinated

What can participants in the post-2015 negotiations do to support coherence?

What concepts should guide efforts at creating coherence?

WCDRR – Sendai Framework 2015-2030

• Sendai, Miyagi, Japan

• 6,000 participants

• 168 countries

• Replace Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

• Coherence / integration contentious • “If this was being held after the

SDGs and the climate COP, instead of beforehand, it would be so much easier.”

Guidance for Integration

Sendai Framework

• The intergovernmental negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda, financing for development, climate change and disaster risk reduction provide the international community with a unique opportunity to enhance coherence across policies, institutions, goals, indicators, and measurement systems for implementation, while respecting their respective mandates. I(11)

• promote the conduct of comprehensive surveys on multi-hazard disaster risks and the development of regional disaster risk assessments and maps, including climate change scenarios. IV(25)b

Hyogo Framework

• Promote the integration of risk reduction associated with existing climate variability and future climate change into strategies for the reduction of disaster risk and adaptation to climate change, which would include the clear identification of climate-related disaster risks, the design of specific risk reduction measures and an improved and routine use of climate risk information by planners, engineers and other decision-makers. III(B)4(i)c

What can participants in the post-2015 negotiations do to support coherence?

What concepts should guide efforts at creating coherence?

Recommendations for Coherence

1. Set goals for independent + integrated action

2. Use terms with common meaning

3. Establish a framework to support implementation

4. Avoid over-convergence

A. Independent Action • What distinguishes DRR actions from SD or CCA?

1. Set Goals and Lines

If…Adaptation :: Adaptive Capacity :: Vulnerability :: Socioeconomic Inequality ::

Development

Does…CCA = DRR = SD

A. Independent Action

B. Integration e.g.:

• Should DRR efforts be carbon-neutral?

• Should sustainable development seek to maintain or reduce existing risk?

• Should adaptation reduce or maintain risk in light of climate change?

• Should goals be to prioritize recovery or prevention?

Who should decide?

1. Set Goals and Lines

2. Common Language

Sendai Framework: The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recoverfrom the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner.

IPCC:The capacity of social, economic, or environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, by responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation.

resilience resilience = sustainability (e.g. Holling + Walker, 2003)

2. Common Language

• DRR Practitioner – Concepts of “Resilience”

(Aldunce et al 2015)

• Bounce Back • Preparation = Prepare to Recover

• Self-Reliance • Community Focus

• Negative role for government + civil society

• Recovery Speed

• Stability

3. Support Framework

• Platform for exchange of shared knowledge

• Common indicators – or efforts to create• e.g., Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable Development Indicators

• Tools • EIAs

• Cost-Benefit Analysis • E.g. GHG estimates

• Life-cycle vulnerability and cost assessments

4. Avoid Over-Convergence

• Proliferation, Competition, Non-Additionality• Back to goals + lines – what is unique about each?

• Controversy• E.g., Common But Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR)

• Common resource • Unequal contribution to problem• Unequal resources to respond

• “Each State has the primary responsibility to prevent and reduce disaster risk” III(A) but• “reduction of disaster risk is a common concern for all States” and should take into account

“circumstances and capabilities” to respond III(A)

Recommendations for Coherence

1. Set goals for independent + integrated action

2. Use terms with common meaning

3. Establish a framework to support implementation

4. Avoid over-convergence

THE END

Disaster Risk

Reduction

Climate Change

Sustainable Development

Possible Maladaptation

Slow onset changes__

+ increased disasters

Damage, Mortality, Loss of Livelihoods

Increased Exposure+ Vulnerability