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Political Deliberation on Twitter: Is Twitter emerging as an opinion leader?

for

International Conference on People, Politics and Media (ICPPM)

April 25-26, 2014

Jagran Lakecity University

by

Dr. Meenakshi Upadhyay

Senior Faculty

School of Media and Communication,

Whistling Woods International

(http://www.whistlingwoods.net/),

Mumbai, India.

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Abstract

Internet brings together the media, the common man and politicians on the same

platform. Various issues are discussed on this platform ranging from politics; social

issues to sports and health, to name a few. The convergence of new media

technologies has been instrumental where the audience produces information,

interacts and become creators of content (Lister, Dovey, Giddings, Lian, & Kelly,

2009). The media has used this platform to reach out to the Internet savvy publics.

The publics seem to debate and discuss political issues amongst themselves and with

the media. In a previous study on the assembly elections held in New Delhi in Dec

2013, it was found that Internet savvy audiences have voted a party to victory. There

could have been different platforms on the Internet that could have played a role to

this victory. This study postulates the role of Twitter, as the new digital opinion

leader where voting decisions could be made based on discussions on this medium.

RQ. How is Twitter becoming an opinion leader for the upcoming general elections

for the 16th Lok Sabha in India in 2014?

This is a conceptual paper where examination of previous researches focusing on

Internet and Twitter and a preliminary study of a snapshot of tweets indicate the

changing use of Twitter, going beyond phatic communication.

The study is expected to be useful to academicians, students and media professionals

to understand the how a medium becomes a public sphere for discussions and debates

on crucial issues which may impact policies and changes in governance.

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Background and Literature Review

The researcher is a regular user on Twitter. She has observed how various media;

print, television and radio have reached the audience on Twitter. The audience too has

used this platform to discuss and debate with each other and the media on various

issues. The politicians have used this medium to their benefit by speaking out

wherever and whenever necessary. The upcoming general elections for the 16th Lok

Sabha formation have been discussed heavily and it is interesting to note how the

media could be playing a role in shaping opinions of the polls ahead. This study was

result of this curiosity.

Internet as a medium of communication

The audiences are no longer passive receptors of information. Convergence has added

to that. The convergence of new media technologies not only help audience to

produce information, interact with each other and also become creators of content

(Lister, Dovey, Giddings, Lian, & Kelly, 2009). People are no longer dependent on

traditional media sources for accessing news. The Internet has created public spheres.

Here virtual communities, have the capability of bringing in change both in the social

as well as in the political sphere. It is the interactivity that allows strangers to connect

with each other, discuss and debate online (Karandikar, 2013).

Habermas describes public sphere as a space where public opinions are formed as a

result of rigorous public debates, which have an informed and logical base (Calhoun,

1992). The public sphere when re-looked in the domain of the Internet, allows for a

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two-way communication and interaction, paving way for an enhanced political

participation, both in terms of numbers as well as in content (Lim & Park, 2011).

Internet based media helps political leaders to speak without any fear of gatekeeping,

which earns them followers (Welp & Wheatley, 2009). The Internet helps in

providing information about candidates and elections and this increases chances of the

voter participating in any election process. With news now easily available online,

this is another reason, which can stimulate voters to gain more and more information

on their chosen candidates or parties (Tolbert & Mcneal, 2003). The fact that India is

a democratic country only makes information accessible to its citizens and to freely

participate on the Internet on issues related to democracy.

Marginalized societies have a new place for their voices to be heard: the social media

on the Internet, thus the availability of these online social media sites has enabled

these communities to create their own media, rebelling against oppressive or

indifferent authority (Innis, 1964). The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt in 2010 and

2011 are examples of probable mobilization through the social media.

A study on rediff.com has analyzed the recent New Delhi assembly elections (held on

December 4th, 2013) and has found out that people from all age groups who are

educated, English speaking, white-collar voters, have chosen the recently formed Aam

Adami Party (AAP). Interestingly people with stronger presence on the Internet have

voted for the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) (Rediff, 2014). This also probably indicates

that the English speaking, educated class, or the middle class of India is pre-

dominantly on the Internet. India, though has many languages and dialects, has an

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education sector, dictated by the English language, which is basically a foreign

language and not the forte of majority of the population of the country (Benson,

2004). It also indicates that Internet is probably becoming a catalyst in mobilizing the

publics to vote.

Marshall McLuhan and medium is the message

In his highly acclaimed works “Understanding Media: The extensions of man”

McLuhan explained that the medium is very crucial in how it affects the society. Not

only the content on the medium but the characteristics of the medium can be crucial

on how it carries the message (McLuhan, 1964).

Agenda Setting Theory and the Two-step flow theory

Agenda Setting Theory states that the media influences us by telling us what issues

are important (McCombs & Reynolds, 2002). As Bernard Cohen said about the press

that “Press may not be successful much of the time in telling people what to think, but

it is stunningly successful in telling its readers what to think about. The world will

look different to different people, depending on the map that is drawn for them by

writers, editors, and publishers of the paper they read.” (Cohen, 1963)

Though people are not so easily affected by what the media says as suggested by the

people’s study conducted by sociologist Paul Lazersfeld in the 1940s. He theorized

that information takes a two-step process to move from mass media to opinion leaders

and then from them to a wider population (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944).

Though there are studies that suggest that though new technologies can act as buffers

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for political mobilization there is no evidence to show that it can be sustained for a

prolonged time (Tsaliki, 2010).

Twitter

Twitter is a microblog on the Internet where users write on various issues in 140

characters. The real timeliness, speed, quantity and quality of information are the key

here.

Microblogging is fast gaining recognition as a news and communication medium

amongst users (Ehrlich & Shami, 2010; Kwak, Lee, Park, & Moon, 2010). Many

studies suggest the role of social media as platforms for phatic communication, where

interaction is limited to forming networks without any inclination to provide

information or starting a dialogue (Miller, 2008). But this is changing. Concept of

digital opinion leaders is fast emerging, though conditions may vary on the

effectiveness of their influence (Kotcher, 2009).

A study on Twitter conducted in UK during the 2010 UK general elections suggested

that most news were emerging from media, though it didn’t play a role in influencing

public opinion. The tweets1 ( of journalists were re-tweeted several times and the re-

tweets had the highest re-tweet rates. There were average re-tweet times for every

tweet (“calculates how many times a tweet has been retweeted on average”). The

study also indicated that journalists were instrumental in furthering the audience of

mainstream media and swaying public influence to media on the Internet (Zhongyu,

Yulan, Wei, Binyang, Lanjun, & Wong, 2013). Some previous studies of have shown

the growing power and speed of Twitter as a platform of communication. Tweets

                                                                                                               1  “A very short message posted on the Twitter website” accessed on February 24, 2014 on www. dictionary.reference.com/browse/tweet

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were studied according to their reach, based on events and issues. The impacts and

impressions were also closely examined. They reveal the use of Twitter as a lobbying

platform, the relationship between offline and online activities etc. (Resource, 2014).

In India, Twitter is fast emerging as a platform on the Internet where the media,

politicians and the common man mutually share their views. Authorities in the

government have to be careful what they speak on this platform as it draws a lot of

public attention. There have been many instances where the politicians faced

uncomfortable situation because of their tweets. (Joshua, 2009; PTI, Times of India,

2014).

The researcher in the current study is focusing on Twitter due to its increasing

popularity in India. A recent survey by the Internet Marketing Firm Global Web

Index gives the latest data of people using Twitter in India. It says there are 123

million Internet users in India and 67% users have a Twitter account (Khosla, 2013).

With years to come this will only rise. A KPMG study suggests that Indian mobile

Internet users will increase to 164.8 mm by 2015. With Internet users rising, social

media usage may also see a rise (PTI, Indian mobile Internet users to touch 164.8 mn

by 2015: KPMG, 2013).

She has also observed that both media and the Twitter users at large discuss on

various issues related to elections. Data archives on Twitter suggest that a lot of news

and information on politics and related issues is tweeted by the mainstream media. A

study on the content on Twitter suggests that users prefer tweets that exhibit

knowledge or some shared thoughts and experience as compared to a “me oriented”

or “presence updates” where tweets are very personal where users are only promoting

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themselves or simply saying what they doing in a particular location (André,

Bernstein, & Luther, 2012).

This study examines Twitter as a growing powerful medium, which offers news and

views on electoral candidates and political parties, for population seeking information

on them.

RQ. How is Twitter becoming an opinion leader for the upcoming general elections

for the 16th Lok Sabha in India in 2014?

Tweet Analysis

A recent observation on the CNN-IBN, an Indian English news channel could explain

this phenomenon. This channel has a program on politics and elections news where it

tracks the sentiments about political parties and their candidates for the state assembly

polls across India in 2013. It is also conducting a similar study for the forthcoming

general election of the 16th Lok Sabha (CNN-IBN, 2014).

The channel and most of the journalists with the channel have twitter handles2. The

hashtag3 #electiontracker on Twitter was studied to understand what the media and

the common man deliberate on. The tweets analytics site http://tweetreach.com/ was

used for preliminary analysis of tweets to exemplify the focus of the study.

                                                                                                               2 “A user's "Twitter handle" is the username they have selected and the accompanying URL, like so: http://twitter.com/username.” Accessed on Feburary 24, 2014 on https://support.twitter.com/articles/166337-the-twitter-glossary# 3 The # symbol, called a hashtag, is used to indicate keywords or topics in a tweet. It was done so that Twitter users could categorize messages. Accessed on February 3, 2014 on support.twitter.com/articles/49309-using-hashtags-on-twitter

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A snapshot below explains the exchange of various tweets from this channel, its

journalists and the audiences with the hash tag #electiontracker between Jan 26 to Jan

29, 20144. The last 50 tweets of the 4 days have been examined; consisting of 46

twitter users who have contributed which include media and other twitter users.

There have been 11 replies, 9 tweets and 30 retweets (a retweet is a tweet, which is

content written by a user, but shared by another)5. Also abbreviated as RT.

The snapshot below is an indicator of the exposure and reach of tweets with the

#electiontracker keyword.

                                                                                                               4  Impacts: The possibility of how many times a twitter user could have seen a hashtag. Reach: The exact figure of unique twitter users who could have seen the hashtag. Impressions: It is a tweet delivered to the Twitter stream of an individual account. But it could be difficult to say if the tweet was actually read. Exposure: It is the total number of times tweets about the item searched were delivered to Twitter streams. Accessed on February 2, 2014 on http://help.tweetreach.com/entries/276589-What-do-you-mean-by-reach-exposure-and-impressions-  5  Accessed on February 24, 2014 on www.dictionary.reference.com/browse/retweet

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The snapshot below indicates the top contributors of the tweets with the

#electiontracker. The top contributors of tweets is @ibnlive. The retweets are of

journalists Bhupendra Chaube and Sagarika Ghose of CNN-IBN.

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Snapshots below of some tweets on the deliberation between Media and Twitter

users

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Tweets have been posted by senior journalists of CNN-IBN including Rajdeep

Sardesai, Sagarika Ghose Bhupendra Choube, among the well known journalists of

India. Users have read these tweets, as they have been re-tweeted. FirstPost.com a

vertical of the Network 18 group has also been part of the discussion of the election

polls. Most of these tweets have been re-tweeted. Many tweets indicate that BJP may

come into power as per the election poll tracker by CNN-IBN.

Opinions are seen being formed by users about political parties as observed in the

tweets. "siddarthpaim: I feel #AAP similar to Third front drama of 2009 by morons

altogether #electiontracker @ibnlive” Or as indicated by another user “Gajen72:

After @sardesairajdeep s #ElectionTracker "Global markets in panic mode"

moneycontrol.com/news/market-ou…#TweetLikeSardesai @KeshavprasadGn

@gsurya”

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Keywords and phrases traced in the tweets by media such as “#electiontracker effect”,

or “#electiontracker reflects a huge surge” or a tweet by a user who has re-tweeted

Bhupendra Chaube, who is CNN-IBN national affairs editor, “ssharma68: RT

@bhupendrachaube: What our #electiontracker reflects is a huge surge for Bjp.

@narendramodi wave sweeping Hindi heartland.” Here Mr. Narendra Modi’s Twitter

handle (unique Twitter id of an individual or organisation) had been tagged in the

post.

Sagarika Ghose deputy editor and anchor has been retweeted by a user

“fakenewsreader: RT @sagarikaghose: Impressive numbers for BJP in our CNNIBN

#electiontracker , looks like a north-west monsoon for @narendramodi”

Rajdeep Sardesai a very senior journalist in CNN-IBN has been retweeted by a user:

“jaggi_sg: RT @sardesairajdeep: Congwallahs on twitter accusingus of 'paid media'

because #electiontracker shows BJP ahead.Yes, showing the mirror makes you paid

media!”

There are skeptical users too of the media which is indicated by this tweet

“anti_corrupt_01: @sardesairajdeep Reason I dnt trust ur #electiontracker is bcause it

requires more than a genius to predict a phenomenon like AAP.” This user could also

be an AAP member.

The above analysis indicates an influence of media on the upcoming polls with their

poll tracker survey. The influence can be seen in the deliberations of media and the

Twitter users and politicians are tagged via their Twitter handles. Twitters users are

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seen sharing their news, views and engaging into debates with the journalists and

amongst themselves, indicating their preferences. The influence of the media is

clearly seen. Twitter users are seen being leaning towards the “winning” party in the

upcoming general elections. Journalists are heading the deliberations as apparent from

the tweets. The agenda setting theory is still making sense where the media is giving

enough dose on what to think about. A study explains how the two-step flow theory

works perfectly where information starts from the mainstream media but is

transmitted via intermediaries6 (Wu, Hofman, Mason, & Watts, 2011). A further study

by (Zhongyu, Yulan, Wei, Binyang, Lanjun, & Wong, 2013) exemplifies that when

users retweet directly or indirectly the tweets of TV media their audience size

increases manifold on this platform. Thus users in India too are retweeting tweets

from media to their followers, are discussing and debating with the media, as also

indicated by the tweets above.

Conclusion and further discussion

This study tries to hypothesize the important role that Twitter could be playing in

forming opinion about politics and its players, and hence helping audiences in

deciding whom to vote for. The assembly elections were an indicator how the public

opinion might be formed for the upcoming elections. The middle class voted for the

BJP and the middle class is on Twitter. Though at present, there is no audience data

available from India, which can say that audience did choose Twitter to deliberate on

                                                                                                               6  “Intermediaries are defined as those who retweet messages from a source user directly. Intermediaries contribute to the diffusion of social influence of mainstream media by spreading tweets from media to their own followers and hence significantly enlarge the audience size of mainstream media”. Accessed on http://www1.se.cuhk.edu.hk/~zywei/paper/Hypertext2013-174-Wei.pdf dated 6th February 2014

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politics and hence choose their candidates for voting. Usually with mediums like the

Internet and platforms like Twitter, information from many sources can trickle down

to different users and through them to those who do not have the accessibility. Thus

Twitter appears to becoming the new opinion leader in India in times to come for the

fact it is a platform that allows for real time interaction of media, politicians and the

common man.

Further Scope of Study

A further analysis of more tweets and audience analysis post upcoming general

elections of the 16th Lok Sabha, can give further insight into the study.

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