Landslide Science and Practice Volume 2 Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring

38
Landslide Science and Practice Volume 2 Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti · Kyoji Sassa Editors

Transcript of Landslide Science and Practice Volume 2 Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring

Landslide Science and PracticeVolume 2Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring

Claudio MargottiniPaolo Canuti · Kyoji Sassa Editors

Landslide Science and Practice

Claudio Margottini • Paolo Canuti • Kyoji Sassa

Editors

Landslide Scienceand Practice

Volume 2: Early Warning, Instrumentationand Monitoring

EditorsClaudio MargottiniISPRA - Italian Institute forEnvironmental Protection and Research

Geological Survey of ItalyRome, Italy

Kyoji SassaUNITWIN Headquarters BuildingKyoto University Uji CampusUji, Kyoto, Japan

Associate Editors

Filippo CataniDepartment of Earth SciencesUniversity of FlorenceFirenze, Italy

Paolo CanutiICL - International Consortium on LandslidesFlorence, Italy

Alessandro TrigilaISPRA - Italian Institute forEnvironmental Protection and Research

Geological Survey of ItalyRome, Italy

Additional material to Volume 1 can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com

ISBN 978-3-642-31444-5 ISBN 978-3-642-31445-2 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31445-2Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London

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Preface

Landslide Science and Practice

Proceedings of the Second World Landslide Forum

The Second World Landslide Forum (WLF) was organized at the headquarters of the Food

and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, on 3–9 October 2011.

WLF is a triennial mainstream conference of the International Programme on Landslides

(IPL) which is jointly managed by the IPL Global Promotion Committee consisting of the

International Consortium on Landslides (ICL), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and

Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Food

and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations International

Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the United Nations University (UNU), the

International Council for Science (ICSU), and the World Federation of Engineering

Organizations (WFEO).

Background to the World Landslide Forums

The International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) was established by the 2002 Kyoto

Declaration “Establishment of an International Consortium on Landslides,” with the Statutes

adopted in January 2002. The Statutes defined the General Assembly of ICL: In order to

report and disseminate the activities and achievements of the consortium, a General Assembly

shall be convened every 3 years by inviting Members of the International Consortium on

Landslides, individual members within those organizations, and all levels of cooperating

organizations and individual researchers, engineers, and administrators. The General Assem-

bly will receive reports on Consortium activities and provide a forum for open discussion and

new initiatives from all participants.

The First General Assembly 2005 to the First World Landslide Forum 2008

The First General Assembly was organized at the Keck Center of the National Academy of

Sciences in Washington D.C., USA, on 12–14 October 2005. At this Assembly, the first full-

color book reporting consortium activities for the initial 3 years, 2002–2005, was published as

“Landslides-Risk analysis and sustainable disaster management” through Springer. The 2006

Tokyo Round-Table Discussion – “Strengthening Research and Learning on Earth System

Risk Analysis and Sustainable Disaster Management within UN-ISDR as Regards Landslides”

– toward a dynamic global network of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL) was

held at the United Nations University, Tokyo, on 18–20 January 2006. The 2006 Tokyo

v

Action Plan – Strengthening research and learning on landslides and related earth system

disasters for global risk preparedness – was adopted. The Tokyo Action Plan established a

new global International Programme on Landslides (IPL) including holding World Landslide

Forums. Accordingly, the Second General Assembly 2008 was replaced by the First World

Landslide Forum and held at the United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan, on 18–21

November 2008.

Report of the Second World Landslide Forum

The Second World Landslide Forum – Putting Science into Practice – was organized at the

Headquarters of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on 3–9

October 2011. It was jointly organized by the IPL Global Promotion Committee (ICL,

UNESCO, WMO, FAO, UNISDR, UNU, ICSU, WFEO) and two ICL members in Italy: the

Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) and the Earth Science

Department of the University of Florence with support from the Government of Italy and

many Italian landslide-related organizations.

• 864 people from 63 countries participated. Attendance was larger than expected, and twice

the attendance at the First World Landslide Forum 2008 in Tokyo (430 participants: 175

from Japan and 255 from abroad).

• 25 technical sessions were held, and 465 full papers were submitted. All accepted papers

were edited in 7 volumes including this volume:

1. Landslide Inventory and Susceptibility and Hazard Zoning

2. Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring – this volume

3. Spatial Analysis and Modeling

4. Global Environmental Change

5. Complex Environment

6. Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation

7. Social and Economic Impact and Policies

Requests of Cooperation for Further Development of ICL and IPL

ICL and IPL are global multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral initiatives to promote landslide

science and capacity-development to reduce landslide disasters. The core activities of ICL and

IPL are Landslides: Journal of International Consortium on Landslides, World Landslide

Forum, and IPL projects. Thanks to worldwide support of the journal, the Impact Factor of

Landslides was 2.216 for 2011 which is the highest within 30 ISI journals in category of

Engineering, Geological. The journal will develop from a quarterly journal to a bimonthly

journal from Vol. 10 in 2013. The Third World Landslide Forum – Landslide risk mitigation

toward a safer geo-environment – at the China National Convention Center, Beijing, China, on

2–6 June (conference) and 7–11 June (Field Trip) 2014. The ICL entered into the second

decade of its activities and organized a 10th anniversary Conference on 17–20 January 2012,

in Kyoto, Japan. ICL adopted the ICL Strategic Plan 2012–2021, To create a safer geo-

environment- as an outcome of this conference.

ICL is an international nongovernmental and nonprofit scientific organization promoting

landslide research and capacity-building for the benefit of society and the environment, and is

vi Preface

.

the thematic landslides platform in the UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction.

ICL activities are supported by voluntary efforts of ICL members and supporting

organizations. All people involving in landslide research and landslide disaster mitigation

activities are requested to cooperate for the development of this initiative through its second

decade 2012–2021. (http://www.iplhq.org/ and http://icl.iplhq.org/).

We are deeply appreciative of all e Second World Landslide Forum participants and of the

contributions from our UNESCO, WMO, FAO, UNISDR, UNU, ICSU, WFEO partners and

all of our colleagues in ICL for the development of IPL up to now. Finally we address our

sincere thanks to Filippo Catani and Alessandro Trigila (the associate editors) for their

extensive efforts covering the technical sessions, and reviewing and editing the papers as

well as to Patrizia Musina and Deodato Tapete for revising all the manuscripts.

ICL and IPL Secretariat

IPL office: UNITWIN headquarters Buildings, Kyoto University Uji Campus,

Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

ICL office: The Association for Diaster Prevention Research,

138-1 Tanaka Asukai-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8226, Japan

Email: [email protected]

URL: http://www.iplhq.org/ and http://icl.iplhq.org/

Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti Kyoji Sassa

Forum Chair President of ICL Executive Director of ICL

Preface vii

Organizational Structure of the Second WorldLandslide Forum

Organizers

IPL Global Promotion Committee including:

• International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) *

• United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

• United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)

• United Nations University (UNU)

• International Council for Science (ICSU)

• World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO)

• Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA)

(* Members are listed in the last page of this book)

Co-sponsors

• International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS)

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)

• International Geographical Union (IGU)

• International Flood Initiative (IFI)

Under the Auspices of

• International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment, Italian

Section (IAEG)

• Italian Association of Engineering Geologists (AIGA)

• Italian Association of Geotechnique (AGI)

• Italian Association for Mining Engineers, Environment and Territory (ANIM)

• Italian Georesources and Environment Association (GEAM)

International Organizing Board

Honorary Chairpersons

• Irina BOKOVA (UNESCO Director-General)

• Catherine BRECHIGNAC (ICSU President)

• Jacques DIOUF (FAO Director-General)

ix

• Michel JARRAUD (WMO Secretary-General)

• Maria P. LAFFARGUE (WFEO President)

• Konrad OSTERWALDER (UNU Rector)

• Bernardo DE BERNARDINIS (ISPRA President)

• UNISDR Director

Chairpersons

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA, Forum Chair)

• Paolo CANUTI (ICL President)

• Kyoji SASSA (ICL Executive-Director)

Deputy Chairpersons

• Peter BOBROWSKY (IUGS Secretary General)

• Deliang CHEN (ICSU Executive Director)

• Peter LYTTLE (ICL Vice President, US Geological Survey)

• Eduardo ROJAS-BRIALES (Assistant Director General of FAO)

• Badaoui ROUHBAN (Director of UNESCO’s Section for Disaster Reduction)

• Yueping YIN (ICL Vice President, China Geological Survey)

Scientific Advisory Board

Representing Organisation

• Irasema ALCANTARA-AYALA (Vice President of International Geographical Union -

IGU)

• Walter AMMAN (President Davos Forum)

• Michael CROZIER (President of International Association of Geomorphologists - IAG)

• Carlos DELGADO (President of International Association of Engineering Geology -

IAEG)

• Luca DEMICHELI (Secretary General of EuroGeoSurveys)

• John HARDING (United Nations Secretariat to International Strategy for Disaster Reduc-

tion - UNISDR)

• Srikantha HERATH (Senior Academic Programme Officer of the United Nations Univer-

sity - UNU)

• Thomas HOFER (Forestry officer, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations - FAO)

• Yumio ISHII (Chair of the Committee on Disaster Risk Management of The World

Federation of Engineering Organizations WFEO)

• Derek MARTIN (Vice President for North America of International Society for Rock

Mechanics - ISRM)

• Howard MOORE (Senior Advisor, International Council for Science - ICSU)

• Pedro SECO E PINTO (Past President of International Society for Soil Mechanics and

Geotechnical Engineering - ISSMGE)

• Luciano PICARELLI (Chairperson of the Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and

Engineered slopes - JTC1 of ISSMGE, ISRM, IAEG)

• Kaoru TAKARA (Vice chairperson of the Intergovernmental Council of the International

Hydrological Programme of UNESCO - IHP)

• Kuniyoshi TAKEUCHI (President of GeoRisk Commission of International Union of

Geodesy and Geophysics - IUGG)

x Organizational Structure of the Second World Landslide Forum

Landslide Experts

• Giovanni BARLA (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)

• R.K. BHANDARI (Consultant, India)

• Christophe BONNARD (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland)

• Nicola CASAGLI (University of Florence, Italy)

• Leonardo CASCINI (University of Salerno, Italy)

• Giovanni CROSTA (University of Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy)

• Jordi COROMINAS (Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain)

• Dave CRUDEN (University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada)

• Thomas GLADE (University of Vienna, Austria)

• Jerome DE GRAFF (United States Department of Agriculture , Fresno - Ca - USA)

• Michel HERMELIN (Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia)

• Ken HO (Hong Kong Geotechnical office, Hong Kong, China)

• Jurgen KROPP (Potsdam Institute for Climate Change - PIK, Potsdam, Germany)

• Richard M. IVERSON (United States Geological Survey - Vancouver, WA , USA)

• C. F. LEE (Hong Kong University, China)

• Jacques LOCAT (University of Laval, Canada)

• Paul MARINOS (University of Athens, Greece)

• Hideaki MARUI (Niigata University, Japan)

• Hormoz MODARESSI (BRGM, Orleans, France)

• Farrouk NADIM (Norwegian Geothecnical Institute - NGI, Oslo, Norway)

• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA (University of Rome, Italy)

• Wang SIJING (Tsinghua University, China)

• Vern SINGHROY (Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, Ottawa, Canada)

• Alexander STROM (Institute of Geospheres Dynamics, RAS, Moscow, Russia)

• Ikuo TOWHATA (University of Tokyo, Japan)

• Keith TURNER (Emeritus Professor, Colorado School of Mines, Denver, Colorado USA)

• Keizo UGAI (Gunma University, Kiryu,Gunma, Japan)

• Roger URGELES (Institut de Ciencies del Mar - CSIC, Barcelona, Spain

• Yasser el SHAYEB (Cairo University, Egypt)

• Sergio SEPULVEDA (University of Chile, Santiago)

• Mauro SOLDATI (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy)

• Pasquale VERSACE (Calabria University, Cosenza, Italy)

• Cees van WESTEN ( ITC, Enschede, Netherlands)

• Kifle WOLDEAREGAY (University of Mekelle, Ethiopia)

Local Organizing Board

Forum Chairs

• Paolo CANUTI (ICL President - WLF2 Chairperson)

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA - WLF2 Chairperson)

• Kyoji SASSA (ICL Secretary General - WLF2 Chairperson)

Scientific Programme Committee

• Luciano PICARELLI (Second University of Napoli)

• Marco AMANTI (ISPRA)

• Filippo CATANI ( University of Firenze)

• Fausto GUZZETTI (CNR-IRPI)

• Javier HERVAS (JRC)

Organizational Structure of the Second World Landslide Forum xi

• Thomas HOFER (FAO)

• Carla IADANZA (ISPRA)

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA - WLF2 Chairperson)

• Paolo TOMMASI (CNR-IGAG)

• Alessandro TRIGILA (ISPRA)

Editorial Committee

• Filippo CATANI ( University of Firenze)

• Riccardo FANTI ( University of Firenze)

• Fausto GUZZETTI (CNR-IRPI)

• Javier HERVAS (JRC)

• Irene RISCHIA (ISPRA)

• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA ( Universita di Roma "La Sapienza")

• Alessandro TRIGILA (ISPRA)

Logistic Committee

• Thomas HOFER (FAO)

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA - WLF2 Chairperson)

• Orlando PANDOLFI (ECN)

• Luna GUBINELLI

Field Trips

• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA ( University of Roma "La Sapienza")

• Giuseppe DELMONACO (ISPRA)

• Riccardo FANTI ( University of Firenze)

• Irene RISCHIA (ISPRA)

• Daniele SPIZZICHINO (ISPRA)

• Paolo TOMMASI (CNR-IGAG)

Fund Raising and Exhibition

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA - WLF2 Chairperson)

• Paolo FARINA (IDS SpA)

• Giorgio LOLLINO (CNR-IRPI)

SecretariatISPRA, Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research

Dept. Geological Survey of Italy, Via Vitaliano Brancati, 48-00144 Rome, Italy.

Logistics and AdministrationOrlando PANDOLFI - ECN yourLIFE Foundation

xii Organizational Structure of the Second World Landslide Forum

Contents

Part I Landslide Instrumentation and Monitoring

Introduction by Rajenda K. Bhandari, Leonardo Cascini, and Dario Peduto

New Real-Time Landslide Monitoring System in Polish Carpathians . . . . . . . . 3

Zbigniew Bednarczyk

Application of the PS-InSAR Technique for the Post-Failure Landslide

Deformation Monitoring at Lubietova Site in Central Slovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Vladimir Greif and Jan Vlcko

Monitoring of the “Razanj” Landslide in Serbia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Svetozar Milenkovic, Branko Jelisavac, Vladeta Vujanic, and Milovan Jotic

Terrestrial Laser Scanning for the Montaguto Landslide (Southern Italy) . . . . 33

Domenico Denora, Lia Romano, and Giulia Cecaro

Landsliding Events Triggered by Rainfalls in the Enna Area (South Italy) . . . 39

Francesco Castelli and Valentina Lentini

Assessing Volume Earthwork by Using Unconventional Photogrammetry . . . . 49

Cheng-Yang Hsiao, Pao-Shan Hsieh, and Shu-Yeong Chi

The Ancona Early Warning Centre, Instrumentation and Continuous

Monitoring of the Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Stefano Cardellini and Paolo Osimani

Slope Stability Assessment and Monitoring of a Vulnerable Site on

Rishikesh-Uttarkashi Highway, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Shantanu Sarkar, Amitava Ghosh, Debi Prasanna Kanungo, and Zamir Ahmad

Landslide Displacement Monitoring from Multi-Temporal Terrestrial Digital

Images: Case of the Valoria Landslide Site . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Mirco Motta, Fabio Gabrieli, Alessandro Corsini, Vinicio Manzi, Francesco Ronchetti,

and Simonetta Cola

A Geosensor Network Based Monitoring and Early Warning System

for Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Kurosch Thuro, John Singer, and Judith Festl

Underground Landslide Displacement Monitoring: A New MMES

Based Device . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Andrea Segalini and Corrado Carini

Groundwater Investigations Using Optical and Microwave Remote Sensing

Data in Solani Watershed, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

Amed Bennia, S.K. Srivastav, and R.S. Chatterjee

xiii

Application of a Multiplet-Location Coupled Technique to Microseismic

Data for Identification of Rock Slope Active Surfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Cristina Occhiena, Marina Pirulli, and Claudio Scavia

Slope Disaster Monitoring System Using Battery-Operated Wireless

Sensor Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

Keigo Koizumi, Kenji Hirata, Kazuhiro Oda, Yukishige Fujita, and Sadayuki Kamide

The Use of ERT for Investigation of Berzhita Landslide,

Tirana Area, Albania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Hamza Reci, Ylber Muceku, and Idriz Jata

Conventional and Innovative Techniques for the Monitoring

of Displacements in Landslide Affected Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

Loredana Antronico, Luigi Borrelli, Dario Peduto, Gianfranco Fornaro,

Giovanni Gulla, Luca Paglia, and Giovanni Zeni

Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Ground Displacement of the Tena

Landslide (Spain) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

Nguyen Anh Tuan, Saillard Marianne, Darrozes Jose, Oliver Marc,

Herrera Garcia Gerardo, Garcia Lopez-Davalillo Joan Carlos,

Gonzalez Nicieza Celestino, Alvarez Fernandez Inmaculada, Monod Bernard, Mulas

De Pena Joaquim, Soula Jean-Claude, Guerrero Nicole, and Courjaul-Rade Pierre

Long-Term Analysis of Landslides Via SBAS-DInSAR Technique . . . . . . . . . . 141

Manuela Bonano, Fabiana Calo, Michele Manunta, Luca Paglia, and Giovanni Zeni

4D Monitoring of Active Landslides by Multi-Temporal

Airborne LiDAR Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

Guido Ventura, Giuseppe Vilardo, Carlo Terranova, and Eliana Bellucci Sessa

Experiences of Debris-Flow Monitoring and Warning at Catchment

Scale in the Pyrenees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Marcel Hurlimann, Claudia Abanco, and Jose Moya

Setup of a Landslide Monitoring System on the Philippine Island of Leyte

Near the Village of Malinao (Municipality of St. Bernard) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Christian Arnhardt and Olaf Neussner

Application of the Newly Frequency Domain Electromagnetic Method

Survey in a Landslide Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Gen Furuya, Tatsuo Katayama, Akira Suemine, Takayuki Kozato,

Takahiro Watanabe, and Hideaki Marui

Characterization and Study of a Complex Landslide Site in Northern Italy . . . 177

Roberto Passalacqua and Rossella Bovolenta

HR Satellite Imaging and Borehole Monitoring of Landslides

in Daunia, Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Janusz Wasowski, Caterina Lamanna, Giuseppe Gigante, Domenico Casarano,

and Pier Paolo Limoni

Monitoring Concepts and Requirements for Large Rockslides in Norway . . . . 193

Las Harald Blikra and Lene Kristensen

Continuous Monitoring and Near-Real Time Processing of GPS Observations

for Landslide Analysis: A Methodological Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Jean-Philippe Malet, Patrice Ulrich, Aline Deprez, Frederic Masson, Candide Lissak,

and Olivier Maquaire

xiv Contents

Retrogressive Slope Failures in Natural Slope: A Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

Che Hassandi Abdullah and Ghazali Hussin

Performance of Image Correlation Techniques for Landslide Displacement

Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

Julien Travelletti, Christophe Delacourt, Jean-Philippe Malet, Pascal Allemand,

Jean Schmittbuhl, and Renaud Toussaint

A Novel Fiber Optic Sensing System for Monitoring Debris Flows . . . . . . . . . 227

Chung-Ray Chu, Ching-Jer Huang, and Tsung-Mo Tien

Integrated Monitoring of Lateral Spreading Phenomena Along

the North-West Coast of the Island of Malta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

Stefano Devoto, Emanuele Forte, Matteo Mantovani, Arianna Mocnik,

Alessandro Pasuto, Daniela Piacentini, and Mauro Soldati

InSAR Data for Mapping and Monitoring Landslides in Tena Valley . . . . . . . 243

Juan-Carlos Garcıa-Davalillo, Gerardo Herrera, Davide Notti, Mario Hernandez-Ruiz,

Jose-Antonio Fernandez-Merodo, Inmaculada Alvarez-Fernandez,

Celestino Gonzalez-Nicieza, Tazio Strozzi, and Oscar Mora

Monitoring Displacement on the Mannen Rockslide in Western Norway . . . . . 251

Lene Kristensen and Lars Harald Blikra

Multitemporal Study of the San Martino Sulla Marrucina Landslide

(Central Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257

Elisa Damiano, Daniele Giordan, Paolo Allasia, Marco Baldo, Nicola Sciarra,

and Giorgio Lollino

Surface and Deep Displacements Evaluated by GPS and Inclinometers

in a Clayey Slope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

Caterina Di Maio, Roberto Vassallo, Margherita Vallario, Stefano Calcaterra,

and Piera Gambino

A Possible Mechanism of Movement of an Ancient Clayey Landslide . . . . . . . 273

Roberto Vassallo, Caterina Di Maio, and Margherita Vallario

Results of Geoelectrical Monitoring of Landslides Collected

by the SafeLand/TEMPEL Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

Robert Supper, Birgit Jochum, Ivo Baron, Alexander Romer, Mario Lovisolo,

David Ottowitz, and Stefano Cardellini

Geophysical-Geotechnical Sensor Networks for Landslide Monitoring . . . . . . 289

Jonathan Chambers, Philip Meldrum, David Gunn, Paul Wilkinson, Andrew Merritt,

William Murphy, Jared West, Oliver Kuras, Edward Haslam, Peter Hobbs,

Catherine Pennington, and Chris Munro

Remedial Works on the Smrecje Landslide, Croatia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295

Zeljko Arbanas, Vedrana Galijasevic, Petra Ðomlija, and Martina Vivoda

Monitoring Slow-Moving Landslides Using Spatially Adaptive Least

Squares Image Matching . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

Misganu Debella-Gilo and Andreas Kaab

Seismometric Monitoring of Hypogeous Failures Due

to Slope Deformations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309

Luca Lenti, Salvatore Martino, Antonella Paciello, Alberto Prestininzi,

and Stefano Rivellino

Contents xv

Use of Persistent Scatterer InSAR within Terrafirma Landslide Services . . . . 317

Sandro Moretti, Francesca Cigna, Federico Raspini, Geraint Cooksley,

Marie-Josee Banwell, Hugo Raetzo, Gerardo Herrera, Davide Notti,

and Juan Carlos Garcıa Davalillo

Detection and Characterization of Rock Slope Instabilities Using a

Portable Radar Interferometer (GPRI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325

Andrew Kos, Tazio Strozzi, Reto Stockmann, Andreas Wiesmann,

and Charles Werner

Landslides and Hydro-Climatic Conditions in the Hutna Catchment Area

(Central Slovakia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331

Roberta Prokesova, Alzbeta Medvedova, and Zora Snopkova

Landslide Umka: The First Automated Monitoring Project in Serbia . . . . . . . 339

Biljana Abolmasov, Svetozar Milenkovic, Branko Jelisavac, and Vladeta Vujanic

Landslide-Related PS Data Interpretation by Means

of Different Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347

Diego Di Martire, Gabriele De Luca, Massimo Ramondini, and Domenico Calcaterra

Advanced Image Analysis for Automated Mapping of Landslide

Surface Fissures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357

A. Stumpf, U. Niethhammer, S. Rothmund, A. Mathieu, J.P. Malet, N. Kerle,

and M. Joswig

Portable Ring Shear Apparatus and Its Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365

Maja Ostric, Kyoji Sassa, Bin He, Kaoru Takara, and Yosuke Yamashiki

Assessing of Spatio-Temporal Factors Influencing Landslides

Using PSInSAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371

Mateja Jemec Auflic, Magda Carman, and Marko Komac

Methodological and Technological Advances in the Application

of Spaceborne DInSAR for Landslide Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379

G. Fornaro, D.O. Nitti, R. Nutricato, F. Bovenga, D. Peduto, and L. Cascini

Freeze-Thaw Cycle and Rockfall Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385

Diego Arosio, Laura Longoni, Fabrizio Mazza, Monica Papini, and Luigi Zanzi

Rapid Assessment of Landslide Activity in Emilia Romagna Using

GB-InSAR Short Surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391

Alessandro Corsini, Matteo Berti, Antonio Monni, Marco Pizziolo,

Francesco Bonacini, Federico Cervi, Giuseppe Ciccarese, Francesco Ronchetti,

Eleonora Bertacchini, Alessandro Capra, Angela Gallucci, Mauro Generali,

Giampiero Gozza, Valeria Pancioli, Sara Pignone, and Giovanni Truffelli

Resolving Landslide-Bedrock Interaction by Nanoseismic Monitoring . . . . . . . 401

Marco Walter and Manfred Joswig

SAR Interferometry for Landslides Risk Assessment at Local Scale:

The Case Study of Castagnola (Northern Apennines, Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407

Francesco Antolini, Veronica Tofani, Chiara Del Ventisette, Guido Luzi,

Nicola Casagli, and Sandro Moretti

In Situ and Remote Long Term Real-Time Monitoring of a Large

Alpine Rock Slide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415

Federico Agliardi, Giovanni B. Crosta, Rosanna Sosio, Carlo Rivolta,

and Gregorio Mannucci

xvi Contents

C/X-Band SAR Interferometry Used to Monitor Slope Instability

in Daunia, Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423

Raffaele Nutricato, Janusz Wasowski, Fabio Bovenga, Alberto Refice,

Guido Pasquariello, Davide Oscar Nitti, and Maria Teresa Chiaradia

Landslide 3D Surface Deformation Model Obtained Via

RTS Measurements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431

Andrea Manconi, Paolo Allasia, Daniele Giordan, Marco Baldo, Giorgio Lollino,

Angelo Corazza, and Vincenzo Albanese

Application of SqueeSARTM to the Characterization of Deep

Seated Gravitational Slope Deformations: The Berceto

Case Study (Parma, Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437

Andrea Tamburini, Sara Del Conte, Gianfranco Larini, Luigi Lopardo,

Claudio Malaguti, and Paolo Vescovi

Use of the Seismic Dilatometer (SDMT) in Landslide

Research and Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445

Sara Amoroso, Ferdinando Totani, and Gianfranco Totani

Gravitational Instability Analysis of the Prato Carnico Village . . . . . . . . . . . . 451

Marco Del Fabbro, Roberto Meriggi, and Nicola Stefanelli

Rockfall Full Scale Field Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461

Alberto Clerici, Ezio Giuriani, Danilo Cambiaghi, Antonio Isceri, Giorgio Vassena,

Egidio Marchina, and Luca Cominoli

Sprinkling Tests to Understand Hydrological Behaviour of Mudslide . . . . . . . 469

Dominika Krzeminska, Thom Bogaard, Taha-Hocine Debieche, Vincent Marc,

and Jean-Philippe Malet

High Resolution InSAR Monitoring of Coastal Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475

Vernon Singhroy, Francois Charbonneau, Junhua Li, and Rejean Couture

Evaluation of Temperature Effects on Strain Measurements with DTSS . . . . . 479

Gerhard Kapeller, Rafael P.O. Rocha, Luiz Alkimin de Lacerda, and Markus Aufleger

Measurements of Hydraulic Subsurface Processes by Means

of Distributed Fiber Optic Temperature Sensing (DTS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487

Gerhard Kapeller, Thomas Etzer, and Markus Aufleger

Applying GPR and 2D ERT for Shallow Landslides Characterization:

A Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495

Biljana Abolmasov, Aleksandar Ristic, and Miro Govedarica

Monitoring and Modelling of Rainfall-Induced Landslide

in Volcanic Soil Slope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503

Adrin Tohari, Khori Sugianti, and Katsumi Hattori

Impact Pressure Measurements in Shallow Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511

Bugnion Louis and Wendeler Corinna

Application of Terrestrial Laser Scanner to the Assessment of the Evolution

of Diachronic Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517

Jose A. Palenzuela, Clemente Irigaray, Jorge D. Jimenez-Peralvarez,

and Jose Chacon

Ground-Based Radar for Permanent Monitoring of Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . 525

Richard Norland and Rune Gundersen

Contents xvii

The Ganderberg Landslide (South Tyrol, Italy): Mitigation of Residual Risk

by Real-Time Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531

Martina Stefani, Matteo Mantovani, Volkmar Mair, Gianluca Marcato,

Alessandro Pasuto, and Ludwig Nossing

The Case History of the Bagnaschino Landslide, from Early Warning

to Site Specific Rainfall Threshold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537

Corrado Faletto, Enzo Novello, and Paolo Tible

Application of Monitoring Data for the Prediction of the Time to Failure

and Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543

Ziaoddin Shoaei and Karim Karamsoltani

Development of WILMS: Well Inform Landslide Monitoring System

for USM Healthy Campus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 549

Fauziah Ahmad, Ahmad Shukri Yahaya, Mohd Azam Osman, Wong Poh Lee,

and Ahmad Badri Ismail

Integrating Landslide Monitoring into Multi-Hazard Monitoring Systems . . . 559

Guido Bernardi and Fabio Procopio

Part II Early Warnings and Emergency Plans

Introduction by Nicola Casagli and Yin Yuepin

An Appraisal on Ongoing Practices for Landslide Early Warning Systems

in Selected South and East Asian Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573

Elmer B. Billedo, Rajinder K. Bhasin, Oddvar Kjekstad, and N.M.S.I. Arambepola

Examples of Cost Effective Practices for Landslide Monitoring

for Early Warning in Developing Countries of Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581

R.M.S. Bandara, Rajinder K. Bhasin, Oddvar Kjekstad, and N.M.S.I. Arambepola

Validation and Interpretation of Monitored Behavior of Slopes

Vulnerable to Failure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589

Taro Uchimura, Ikuo Towhata, Lin Wang, and Jianping Qiao

Overview of Some Empirical Methods to Correlate Rainfall and Shallow

Landslide and Applications in Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597

Suhaimi Jamaludin and Faisal Hj Ali

Experimental Alert Model for Hydrogeological Risk: A Case Study in Sicily . . . 603

Giuseppe Basile and Marinella Panebianco

An Operational Warning System for the Forecasting of Landslide Occurrence

at Regional Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611

Samuele Segoni, Gianluca Martelloni, Daniela Lagomarsino, Riccardo Fanti,

and Filippo Catani

Radar Interferometry for Early Stage Warning on Monuments at Risk . . . . . 619

Deodato Tapete, Nicola Casagli, and Riccardo Fanti

Landwarn: An Operative Early Warning System for Landslides Forecasting

Based on Rainfall Thresholds and Soil Moisture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 627

Francesco Ponziani, Nicola Berni, Marco Stelluti, Renato Zauri, Claudia Pandolfo,

Luca Brocca, Tommaso Moramarco, Diana Salciarini, and Claudio Tamagnini

Method of Residual-State Creep Test to Understand the Creeping Behaviour

of Landslide Soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 635

Deepak Raj Bhat, Netra P. Bhandary, and Ryuichi Yatabe

xviii Contents

Operational Procedure for a Hydrogeological Warning System

in Aosta Valley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 643

Sara Maria Ratto, Herve Stevenin, Evelyne Navillod, and Marco Cauduro

Defining Physically-Based Rainfall Thresholds for Early Warning Systems . . . 651

Diana Salciarini, Claudio Tamagnini, Francesco Ponziani, and Nicola Berni

Rainfall Threshold Analysis and Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

in Wudu County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 659

Shibiao Bai, Jian Wang, Thomas Glade, Rainer Bell, and Benni Thiebes

Cloud Monitoring: An Innovative Approach for the Prevention

of Landslide Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 665

Bigarre Pascal, Verdel Thierry, Klein Emmanuelle, and Gueniffey Yves

Landslide Triggering and Local Rainfall Thresholds in Bradanic Foredeep,

Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 671

Maurizio Lazzari, Marco Piccarreta, and Domenico Capolongo

Development of Debris Flow Early Warning System for Volcanic Rivers

at Mt. Merapi Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 679

Teuku Faisal Fathani, Djoko Legono, Adam Pamudji Rahardjo, Dwikorita Karnawati,

and Irawan Eko Prabowo

Contents xix

.

Part I

Landslide Instrumentation and Monitoring

Introduction by Rajenda K. Bhandari1, Leonardo Cascini2,and Dario Peduto2

1) Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Management Vellore Institute ofTechnology University, India

2) Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno,Fisciano (Salerno) 84084, Italy

Session L07 of the Second World Landslide Forum was devoted to “Landslide instrumenta-

tion and monitoring”.

This 4-day Session attracted several researchers with diverse backgrounds in different

fields of science and technology spanning from landslide numerical modelling to in situ-

and laboratory instrumentations and remote sensing monitoring techniques. The success of the

Session was obvious from large audience (130 participants) and the lively multi-disciplinary

discussions on 75 submitted full papers, 52 oral and 28 poster presentations

The present chapter is a compendium of all the papers and well documented case studies on

landslide instrumentation and monitoring contributed by landslide experts from different parts

of the world.

An overview of the session papers highlights that scientific studies of landslide phenomena

derive their strength from thorough analyses of multitude of factors such as subsoil geology

and minor geological details, predisposing and triggering factors, physical-mechanical and

engineering properties of soil, groundwater regime and piezometric characteristics, and

landslide kinetics including surface/deep displacements and displacement rates. Indeed,

landslide investigations and instrumentations play a fundamental role for the comprehension

of the landslide mechanics, for their monitoring and for exercising a check on the efficacy and

effectiveness of landslide prevention and control works. Considering the differences in

landslide features, the typology of these measurements often differs according to: the geo-

environmental setting and catchment characteristics; the typology of the phenomena; the scale

of the analysis; the parameter to be monitored (i.e. magnitude and rate of rainfall; slope

displacements; piezometric variations, etc.). The above topics addressed in the papers are

briefly summarized below.

Focus on landslide modelling is found in Del Fabbro et al.; Hassandi and Ghazali, etc.,

whereas aspects of either fast or slow-moving landslide monitoring are analysed by Vassallo

et al.; Sarkar et al.; Chambers et al.; Bugnion andWendeler; Passalacqua and Bovolenta. Some

innovative field tests for the investigation of both mechanical (Ostric et al.) and hydraulic

(Krzeminska et al.; Kapeller et al.) properties of the involved soils are also presented. As far as

fast-moving landslides are concerned, several case studies dealing with rockfall are presented

(Clerici et al., Arosio et al.) also furnishing general concepts and requirements for their

monitoring (Blikra and Kristensen). In this regard, some Authors (Lenti et al.; Amoroso

et al.; Walter et al.; Occhiena et al.) show a number of applications with seismic sensor

networks.

Multi-parameter (i.e. temperature, groundwater levels, displacements, etc.) monitoring

systems increasingly involve wireless sensor networks (Berti et al.; Koizumu et al.), fiber-

optic sensing systems (Chu et al.; Kapeller et al.) and remote sensing data which can be less

expensive and time-consuming than the conventional techniques.

Changes of geo-environmental features and related information (i.e. surfacial

displacements, width of surfacial cracks, variations of vegetation cover, etc.) have been

shown to be successfully detectable by optical (Debella-Gilo et al.; Wasowski et al.; Stumpf

et al.; Travelletti et al.) image processing techniques over areas affected by different

typologies of landslides.

With reference to deep/surfacial displacement monitoring, innovative techniques (i.e.

Micro Electro-Mechanical System (MMES), Segalini et al.) as well as advanced procedures

for the use of almost consolidated techniques such as GPS (Deprez et al.), total station

(Manconi et al.) and LIDAR (Ventura et al.) are described.

The positive trend in the application of remote sensing data, especially when dealing with

analyses over large areas, is testified in this chapter by the high number of contributions

focusing on the use of synthetic aperture radar images—acquired from both spaceborne and

ground-based platforms—processed via differential interferometric techniques (DInSAR). In

particular, these data prove to be a valuable tool for superficial displacement monitoring over

both large areas and single phenomena (Fornaro et al.; Singhroy et al.; Nutricato et al.; Moretti

et al.; Antolini et al.; Tamburini et al.; Bonanno et al.; Kos et al.; Farina et al.; Norland and

Gundersen; Agliardi et al.; Kristensen et al; Antronico et al.; Bozzano et al.; Tuan et al.; etc.)

Finally, some case studies reporting experiences in Europe, India and South-East Asia of

either long-time working (Cardellini; Supper et al.) or recently built up (Sarkar et al., Kurosch

et al.; Arnhardt et al.; Bednarczyk) early warning systems are also presented.

The overall impression gathered from the papers and poster presentations of the session has

been heartening in terms of the high scientific value of the contributions made, rewarding in

terms of the frontier of knowledge advanced and stimulating in terms of the limitations and

problems uncovered for future research and development work. Then, referring to innovative

ground-based and remote sensing techniques, a knowledge deepening appears necessary for

their confident use considering that the results furnished up to now are very promising. To this

end, a close cooperation among landslide experts, scientists and technologists involved in the

development of advanced algorithms and instrumentations seems the most widely shared

recipe to achieve more reliable data and, in turn, to foster the continuous updating of both

processing algorithms and technologies.

2 Part I Landslide Instrumentation and Monitoring

Part II

Early Warnings and Emergency Plans

Introduction by Nicola Casagli1 and Yin Yuepin2

1) University of Florence, Florence, Italy2) China Geological Survey, Beijing, China

Introduction

The Session L16 of the 2nd World Landslide Forum address technical and operational aspects

related to the implementation of early warning systems and emergency plans for reducing

landslide risk at local, regional and national levels.

These aspects involve technological development, landslide impact scenarios, capacity

building, planning mitigation, preparedness and recovery actions.

Critical issues of early warning systems are discussed, such as the understanding of critical

factors of landslide triggering, the rapid identification of precursors and anomalies, the

correlation among different indicators, the multi-parameteric monitoring, the definition of

thresholds and alert levels.

Moreover the session embraces the technical and scientific requirements of emergency

plans associated to early warning systems, such as the modeling of risk scenarios, the

implementation of fast risk reduction measures, the planning of civil rescue actions and

their scheduling for the different alert levels.

Special consideration has been given to those papers reporting innovative methods, new

technologies, remote sensing and best practices of scientific and technological transfer.

Eighteen contributions have been submitted to this session. They can be divided into the

following broad topics:

• Early warning systems based on rainfall thresholds and hydrological models

• Early warning systems based on measurements of soil properties

• Emergency management

• Capacity building

• Technological development

Early Warning Systems Based on Rainfall Thresholds and HydrologicalModels

Bai et al. present a study on rainfall threshold analysis and landslide susceptibility mapping in

Wudu county (China). Rainfall thresholds are calculated using an antecedent daily rainfall

model based on the landslides induced by multi-temporal rainfall events in the region. Three

susceptibility maps of the region were produced based on historic, earthquake and rainfall

data. An integrated landslide susceptibility score is computed considering the maximum

landslide probability of the three factors.

Jamaludin and Hj Ali present a review of some empirical methods to correlate rainfall and

shallow landslide triggering at national level in Malaysia. This national early warning system

is based on three types of empirical rainfall thresholds: (1) intensity versus duration

thresholds, (2) intensity versus working rainfall and (3) intensity versus antecedent thresholds.

A group of presentations is focused on the National Early Warning System established in

2004 in Italy by the Government and implemented by the National Civil Protection and by the

Regions. This system is based on rainfall forecasting and nowcasting as input of threshold

models for the forecasting of landslide triggering at regional scale.

Basile and Panebianco describe the experience in the Sicily region where warning models

are based on the combination of precipitation intensity and antecedent rainfall of the previous

15 days. The warning model is associated to specific procedures to activate the regional civil

protection system and on-site assessment carried out by geologists.

Lazzari et al. present a study on local rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering in the

Basilicata region (Southern Italy). The authors set up a database of historical landslides and

climatic data with more than 300 well-dated landslides. For each recorded landslide, the daily

rainfall and the previous cumulate rainfalls on 2, 3, 5, 10, 15 and 30 days are calculated in

order to identify precipitation thresholds. Moreover the use of a standardized precipitation

index is investigated.

Martelloni et al. describe an operational warning system for forecasting landslide occur-

rence at regional scale in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy). The system, named

SIGMA, combines rain gauges measurements and rainfall forecasts and compares them with a

series of statistical rainfall thresholds based on the total amount of rainfall, which was

cumulated considering different time intervals from 1 up to 365 days. The model is integrated

into the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna for civil protection purposes. For its

simplicity, the proposed model seems particularly appropriate for developing countries that

have no systematic information on landslide distribution.

Ratto et al. illustrate the operational procedures for hydrogeological warning system in the

Aosta region (Norhern Italy). They define multi-parametric thresholds based on previous

precipitations, current precipitations (maximum and average) and snow level. The associated

operational procedures are based on alert levels defined taking into account monitoring results

and actual scenarios. The result is given in terms of probability (low, medium or high). For the

mountainous range a new network of soil moisture sensors has been installed for feeding a

specific hydrological model.

Ponziani et al. present the Landwarn model, an operative early warning system for

landslides forecasting based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture of the Umbria region

(Central Italy). The authors developed and tested a continuous physically based soil water

balance model, addressed to the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole region.

Landslide triggering thresholds are defined by coupling the computed soil moisture conditions

with rainfall intensity thresholds.

Salciarini et al. propose a method for defining physically-based rainfall thresholds for early

warning systems. The authors combine short-time rainfall forecasts with a GIS-based code

which evaluates the spatial distribution of the minimum rainfall intensity, which triggers

shallow landslides and debris flows over a given area, based on the rainfall duration and the

local geometric, hydrologic and mechanical characteristics of the slopes. An example of

application to a study area of the Umbria Region in Central Italy is presented, describing

the capability of the model of providing site-specific thresholds for different rainfall scenarios

and issuing different levels of hazard warning.

Early Warning Systems Based on Measurements of Soil Properties

Raj Bhat et al. stress the importance of a residual-state creep test to understand the creeping

behavior of landslide soils. This can improve the prediction performance of warning models

based on the analysis of time series of landslide displacements or velocities. A residual - state

creep test procedure was developed by the authors with a modified torsional ring shear

568 Part II Early Warnings and Emergency Plans

machine, which is capable of measuring the displacement with respect to time under the

application of constant creep load.

Chae et al. propose an innovative method of landslide early warning based on

measurements of the gradient of volumetric water content. Their study is based on a real

time monitoring system to observe physical property changes in soil during rainfall events.

According to the authors, the response of volumetric water content is faster than pore water

pressure, and volumetric water content maintains the maximum value for some time before

slope failure. The results show that a large rainfall amount and a high gradient of volumetric

water content induce slope failures. Based on these results, it is possible to suggest a threshold

of the gradient of volumetric water for early warning of landslides related to rainfall.

Emergency Management

Dell’Acqua et al. describe a case study of successful emergency management carried out by

the Italian Civil Protection with the support of research institutes. The case is the reactivation

of the Montaguto earth flow, which on March 2010 caused the interruption of both a railway

and a route of national relevance. A real-time monitoring system was deployed, combining

real-time total stations with ground-based radar interferometry. The continuos real-time

monitoring system was employed for the design and the implementation of stabilization

measures, based on the observational method. The landslide stabilization was achieved with

drainage and engineering solutions at low environmental impact.

Fischer Gramani presents a successful case study for the identification of processes and risk

scenarios during the emergency actions and field works undertaken in the Vale do Itajai in

2008 (Brazil). Several mass movements were triggered by heavy rains in the month of

November, affecting the region of Santa Catarina State, South of Brazil, causing 135 deaths,

2 missing, nearly 80,000 displaced and homeless people. The recognition of the different

scenarios and understanding of their evolution allowed local authorities to define the preven-

tive actions and to establish the procedures for the safety of persons and of teams working in

rescue operations. Technical inspections and geotechnical safety procedures were adopted

during the post disaster operations in the affected area.

Capacity Building

Bandara et al. and Billedo et al. present a joint regional project of the Asian Disaster Prepared-

ness Center (ADPC) and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) for documenting and

sharing good practices for early warning of landslides in Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India,

Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. This ongoing project

aims to promote cost effective practices for monitoring and early warning of landslides for

sustainable development. This is currently being achieved through data gathering from existing

approaches and through the formation of joint working groups to identify critical factors. The

project expects to disseminate knowledge on good practices of landslide monitoring to promote

landslide early warning among participating countries.

Fathani et al. describe the early warning system for debris flows in the region of the volcano

Merapi in Indonesia. This system was set up after the 2010 major volcanic eruption, in order to

monitor the triggering of debris flow along the Boyong/Code River and to protect the city of

Yogyakarta. The debris flows are affected by the presence of accumulated sediment in the

upstream sectors of the rivers and are triggered by rainfall. The early warning system is based

on the most adaptive, least cost, and collaborative-based technology. The system was devel-

oped by considering the community aspiration in determining the types and placement of

monitoring equipment, and maintaining its sustainability.

Part II Early Warnings and Emergency Plans 569

Technological Development

Towhata et al. present the validation and interpretation of slope monitoring provided by low-

cost multi-sensor devices installed on unstable slopes. The employed sensor can monitor slope

deformation by means of tiltmeters during heavy rainfalls. A wireless network periodically

collects signals from the sensors and warns local authorities through cellular phones, sending

an alert signal or an emergency evacuation order, depending upon the progress of tilting of

sensors. The developed equipment has been deployed in several slopes in the recent times for

validation of field performance.

Tapete et al. describe an early warning system for monuments at risk based on ground-

based radar interferometry (GB-InSAR) and Permanent Scatterers (PSInSAR) technique,

presenting case studies in the archaeological areas of Rome (Italy). The high sampling

frequency and spatial resolution of Ground-Based InSAR (GB-InSAR) instrumentation

allowed the authors to perform real-time monitoring of the displacements and of the structural

behaviour of Roman monuments. An automatic data analysis was exploited for the real-time

detection of displacement anomalies as deviations from the normal trend, while PS time series

were used to warn about actual instability of monuments.

Pascal et al. stress the importance of data fusion for effective early warning systems based

on real-time multi-parameter monitoring technologies. They propose the use of the term

“cloud monitoring” as an innovative approach which includes heterogeneous clustered field

instrumentation, smart data acquisition protocols and sophisticated transmission technologies,

as well as on-line processing routines and multiple levels alarm capabilities. Cloud monitoring

also involves datawarehouse capacities with data redundancy and secured long-term interac-

tive accessibility to data and metadata.

References

Bandara MS, Bhasin RK, Kjekstad O, Arambepola NMSI. Cost effective practices for landslide monitoring for

early warning in selected countries in Asia

Pascal B, Emmanuelle K, Yves G, Thierry V. Cloud monitoring: an innovative approach for the prevention of

landslide risks

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warning systems in selected South and East Asian countries

Chae B, Choi J, Seo Y. An alternative method of landslide early warning by gradient of volumetric water

content

Bhat DR, Bhandary NP, Yatabe R. Method of residual-state creep test to understand the creeping behavior of

landslide soils

Tapete D, Casagli N, Fanti R. Radar interferometry for early stage warning on monuments at risk

Salciarini D, Tamagnini C, Ponziani F, Berni N. Defining physically-based rainfall thresholds for early warning

systems

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operative early warning system for landslides forecasting based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture

Martelloni G, Segoni S, Fanti R, Catani F. An operational warning system for the forecasting of landslide

occurrence at regional scale

Basile G, Panebianco M. Experimental alert modelling in hydrogeological risk and related procedures to

activate civil protection systems: a real case study in Sicily

Towhata I, Uchimura T, Wang L, Qiao J. Validation and interpretation of monitored behavior of slopes

vulnerable to failure

Gramani MF. Processes and risk scenarios identified during the emergency actions undertaken in the Vale do

Itajai (Brazil) in 2008

Lazzari M, Piccarreta M, Capolongo D. Landslide triggering and local rainfall thresholds in Bradanic foredeep,

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570 Part II Early Warnings and Emergency Plans

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applications in Malaysia

Fathani TF, Legono D, Rahardjo AP, Karnawati D, Prabowo I. Development of debris flow early warning

system for volcanic rivers at Mt. Merapi area

Part II Early Warnings and Emergency Plans 571

Experimental Alert Model for Hydrogeological Risk:A Case Study in Sicily

Giuseppe Basile and Marinella Panebianco

Abstract

The north-eastern part of Sicily (Messina district) is often hit by violent storms that cause

great damage resulting from flash floods and debris flows. On 1st October 2009 there were 37

victims and on other occasions events have led to serious risks to both public and private safety.

The environment is characterized by the presence of high slopes, clay terrains deriving

from mainly metamorphic rocks, and intensely inhabited territories: conditions that make

risk mitigation measures particularly difficult.

Since there is very little time between the event of rainfall and the subsequent need for

preventive intervention, the preparation of a civil protection system is a fundamental

requirement.

For these reasons the Sicilian Department of Civil Protection has an ongoing series of

initiatives that seek to reduce response times: instrument installation (rain and temperature

sensors, X-band meteorological radar), development of an alert model based on critical

rainfall thresholds, and the development of a plan for activating civil protection procedures.

Keywords

Hydrogeological risk � Soil slip � Debris flow � Rain thresholds � Civil protection plan

The Geographical and Meteorological Context

On 1st October 2009 a violent storm hit the northeast coast of

Sicily in a restricted area from Pezzolo Village to Giampilieri

Village, and from Scaletta Zanclea to Itala (about 25 km2).

The event was recorded by a single rain-gauge in Santo

Stefano di Briga, a few kilometres north of the affected area

(Fig. 1).

In 7 h about 225 mm of rain fell with a peak intensity

of about 53 mm/h and an average intensity of about 32 mm/h

(Fig. 2). The ground-effects in the affected areas were wide-

spread and very severe: 37 victims due tomudflows and floods

and more than 600 shallow landslides (Ardizzone et al. 2009;

Basile 2009).

Since in the rain gauge area there was no corresponding

damage of any significance, it is possible to estimate that the

amount of precipitation in the affected area at considerably

more than 225 mm.

After the event the Sicilian Department of Civil Protection

set up six real-time weather stations (data transmitted by radio

signals) to measure the amount and the intensity of precipita-

tion, the air temperature and the humidity in the affected area.

Even more recently an X-band micro radar was installed.

The Determination of Rainfall Thresholds

Historical and Statistical Analysis

The question under consideration is how to assign rainfall

thresholds and associated alert levels and how to decide

what the civil protection system must do in order to mitigate

hydraulic and geomorphic risks.

G. Basile (*) � M. Panebianco

Sicilian Department of Civil Protection, via Abela, 5,

Palermo 90141, Italy

C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Vol. 2,DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31445-2_79, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

603

Several authors have examined the issue using approaches

based on physical or empirical models. Most common empir-

ical models study historic rainfall and their ground effects

(Aleotti 2004; Brunetti et al. 2010; Caine 1980; Cannon et al.

2008; Cevasco et al. 2010; Chleborad et al. 2006; Corominas

et al. 2002; Guzzetti et al. 2005; Iverson 2000; Luino 2008;

Zezere et al. 2008).

From these studies it is evident that the meteorological,

morphological and geological characteristics of each geo-

graphic area induce different results with regard to the deter-

mination of rainfall thresholds for mudslides. For this reason

threshold values may have only a local validity.

In the case in question we have only one rain gauge

(the one at S. Stefano Briga) to study previous events, but its

historical data does not include hourly rainfall intensity values.

The analysis of cumulative rainfall from 1 to 15 rainy

days shows some relevant events with total amounts greater

than in October 2009 (Fig. 3).

From data examination it is possible to conclude that:

– Very critical situations occurred oftenwith P(1d)> 100mm,

P(5dd) > 150 mm, P(15dd)> 200 mm;

– Critical situations occurred occasionally with P

(1d) > 70 mm, P(5dd) > 100 mm, P(15dd) > 150 mm;

– Sometimes critical situations occurred with sudden

intense rainfall events > ¼ 100 mm in a day without

significant previous rainfall.

Filtering the entire data-set (from 1924 to 2009) we obtain

196 events with P(1d) > 50 mm and we consider the average

of these values to represent the most critical situation for the

pre-conditional factors leading to hydrogeological risk.

The exponential fitting of these values is shown in

Table 1:

Criteria for Threshold Evaluation

The value of the ‘d’ parameter (rainy days before the generic

event) in the previous equation is not of secondary impor-

tance because the alert levels depend on this value.

We may only assume that physical phenomenon induces

soil slips and debris flows, but we do not know with preci-

sion the total amount of water required. Other unknown

factors are the physical and mechanical constitution of the

soil (mineralogy, density, porosity, permeability, cohesion,

friction angle), the contribution of air temperature to

evaporation, and the quantitative role of vegetation and

burrowing animals.

Thus, although the system is influenced by many unknown

variables, the only data of which we are sure is the amount of

rainfall.

However, even if we know with certainty the exact phys-

ical process that causes the debris flows, in order to establish

the threshold level we must also take into account human

inertia factors.

The population’s “practice” to alerts is another unknown

element that we must consider: while avoiding too many

false alarms, we must not overlook the possibility of unex-

pected phenomena.

In addition, the software used by the weather stations has

two kinds of alarms: for cumulative and for intense rainfall.

For these reasons, the thresholds are based on two

indicators: the pre-conditional factors with cumulative

rainfall and the triggering factors with rainfall intensity.

The above formula (1) shows the maximum level for

pre-conditional factors while the lower levels are a

fraction of the ‘d’ coefficient. Thus we have the following

expressions (as shown in Fig. 4):

K3 ¼ 69:91�d 0:307 (1)

K2 ¼ 46:61�d 0:307 (2)

K1 ¼ 23:30�d 0:307 (3)

Triggering factors caused by rainfall intensity (mm/h) are

unknown because of inexistent historical data. However, based

on only a few events (October 25, 2007; November 15, 2008;

Fig. 1 The area affected by the storm of 1st October 2009

604 G. Basile and M. Panebianco

October 1, 2009; March 1, 2011) we can assign the following

levels (Fig. 5):

I1 ¼ 10 mm/h

I2 ¼ 25 mm/h

I3 ¼ 40 mm/h

To avoid alarm activation caused by a series of abrupt

changes in rainfall intensity, the minimum duration of the

intense event must be half an hour.

Respectively, the three thresholds identified four alert

levels (LEV0, LEV1, LEV2, LEV3), as shown in Table 2:

Fig. 2 Diagram of event of

1st October 2009

Fig. 3 Annual trend of

S. Stefano Briga rain-gauge

Table 1 Average values for cumulative rainfall from 1 to 20 consecutive days (1924–2009 years) and best fit equation

P1d P2d P3d P4d P5d P10d P15d P20d

72 87 97 105 110 139 164 181

[1] K3 ¼ 69.91*d0.307

linear form

[1’] K3 ¼ 8.89*d�3.12 logarithmic form

Experimental Alert Model for Hydrogeological Risk: A Case Study in Sicily 605

Cumulative rainfall

C_LEV0 < K1

K1 � C_LEV1 < K2

K2 � C_LEV2 < K3

C_LEV3 � K3

Rainfall intensity

I_LEV0 < I1

I1 � I_LEV1 < I2

I2 � I_LEV2 < I3

I_LEV3 � I3

Criteria for Alert Level Evaluation

Thresholds for both cumulative rainfall and rain intensity

have to combine to assign alert levels and relative preventive

actions (Fig. 6). The alert levels (Quiet, Early Warning,

Attention, Warning and Alarm) are related to those of the

national and regional systems.

In order to understand what is indicated in Fig. 6, it

should be noted that the Italian system of civil protection is

organized as follows:

1. The “Functional Centre” (state or regional) issues the

warning messages,

2. The Municipalities predispose all preventive activities by

the Operative Units and the Territorial Units, and open a

Local Operation Center during critical situations,

3. The regional and national system provides aid to

Municipalities with men and equipment.

Obviously the preventive actions indicated are to be con-

sidered as a hypothetical model which needs to be developed

according to the role and responsibility that each institution

has within the civil protection plan.

The preventive actions represent a plan for the develop-

ment of related roles and responsibilities of each institution

within the civil protection plan.

All activities must be planned and discussed by the

institutions involved and require repeated checks to ensure

that the system works efficiently.

A Retrospective Analysis

With reference to the Santo Stefano di Briga rain-gauge,

simulations were carried out to determine the most appropri-

ate ‘d’ value in formulas (1), (2) and (3) in order to prepare the

civil protection system.

Fig. 4 Threshold equations related to cumulative rainfall

Fig. 5 Thresholds related to rain intensity

Table 2 Relations among thresholds and alert levels

Alert levels for cumulative rainfall

Thresholds K1 K2 K3

Levels C_LEV0 C_LEV1 C_LEV2 C_LEV3

Alert levels for rainfall intensity

Thresholds I1 I2 I3

Levels I_LEV0 I_LEV1 I_LEV2 I_LEV3

Fig. 6 Combination of threshold and alert levels

606 G. Basile and M. Panebianco

Fig. 7 Comparison between the accumulated rainfall in 5 days, the intensity of precipitation and alert thresholds

Fig. 8 Comparison between the accumulated rainfall in 10 days, the intensity of precipitation and alert thresholds

Experimental Alert Model for Hydrogeological Risk: A Case Study in Sicily 607

As shown in Fig. 7, if ‘d’ ¼ 5 (days) the model would not

alert the civil protection system: up to 16.00 h on 1st October

the alert level would be on QUIET (C_LEV0 þ I_LEV0);

from 17.00 to 18.00 h the system would pass to an ATTEN-

TION level (C_LEV1 þ I_LEV2/I_LEV3); and only at

19.00 h would the system pass to an ALARM level

(C_LEV3 + I_LEV3). In this case it would be too late to

safeguard the population.

If ‘d’ ¼ 10 (days), at 16.00 h the alert level would be on

EARLY WARNING (C_LEV1 þ I_LEV0); at 17:30 h the

system would pass to a WARNING level (C_LEV2 þI_LEV2); and at 18.00 h to an ALARM level (C_LEV3 þI_LEV3) (Fig. 8).

We cannot ascertain if this would be sufficient to save

lives, but it would at least guarantee the presence of civil

protection experts in the affected area who would be able to

ascertain the seriousness of the situation.

We also analyzed another event that occurred in 2007

where there were similar ground-effects but different mete-

orological characteristics.

On 25th October 2007, the same area was affected by a

severe storm that caused a lot of debris flows and consider-

able damage, but no casualties.

In the Santo Stefano di Briga rain-gauge, the storm was

preceded by a fair amount of rain; so, if the experimental

model had been active we would have had the following

conditions (Figs. 9 and 10).

‘d’ ¼ 5 (days)

15 o’clock: ATTENTION level (C_LEV2 þ I_LEV0)

16 o’clock: ALARM level (C_LEV3 þ I_LEV2)

17 o’clock: ALARM level (C_LEV3 þ I_LEV3)

‘d’ ¼ 10 (days)

15 o’clock: WARNING level (C_LEV3 þ I_LEV0)

16 o’clock: ALARM level (C_LEV3 þ I_LEV2)

17 o’clock: ALARM level (C_LEV3 þ I_LEV3)

In this case, there is no substantial difference between the

two positions (d ¼ 5, d ¼ 10) in alert messages. Probably,

in a real-time system with d ¼ 10 position the ALARM

level would have taken half an hour before reaching d ¼ 5.

Other simulations were made for similar events in the

same area (October 2010, March 2011). In all cases, it seems

that the most representative ‘d’ value is 10 days for a bal-

anced activation of the civil protection system. However, the

Fig. 9 Comparison between the accumulated rainfalls in 5 days, the intensity of precipitation and alert thresholds

608 G. Basile and M. Panebianco

frequency of unexpected (and so far unpredictable) storms

requires constant attention because of the rapid evolution of

meteorological phenomena in the Straits of Messina district.

Conclusions

The proposed experimental alert model regards a restricted

area of north-eastern Sicily that is frequently hit by

extreme rainfall events that cause serious damage.

After the disastrous event of the 1st October 2009, six

rain-gauges were installed in this area with real-time data

transmission. The monitoring system’s on-board software

can establish three thresholds for cumulative precipitations

and for rain intensity.

In order to determine the rain thresholds that could

trigger the phenomenon of hydrogeological instability,

the historical rainfall archives of the station at Santo

Stefano di Briga (Osservatroio delle Acque), the only

useful nearby reference point, were analyzed and com-

pared with other damage-related data deriving from further

archival research.

The elaboration of the data has allowed for the identi-

fication of two types of numeric expression:

ki ¼ ai*dn for accumulated rainfall

(ki ¼ critical threshold, ai,n ¼ parameters depending on the

law of distribution, d ¼ in days)

Ii ¼ m for intense rainfall

(Ii ¼ critical threshold, m ¼ rainfall value in mm/h)

The analyses carried out after a number of significant

rainfall events have allowed for the identification of a

‘d’ value that provides greater guarantees in terms of

prevention.

In the assigning of threshold and relative alert levels,

the time required for the activation of civil protection

procedures has been taken into account. In fact, thanks to

the direct experience of the Regional Department of the

Civil Protection together with other local organizations

(town and county), it has been possible to ascertain that the

amount of time needed to activate risk prevention actions –

checking and verifying data, communicating with local

organizations, activating operative and territorial centres,

activating other system components – is a critical factor

considering the speed with which the phenomenon of

hydrogeological instability generally progresses.

The calculated thresholds and relative procedures

would appear to be sufficient for the correct activation of

preventive measures. However, the uncertainty of the

Fig. 10 Comparison between the accumulated rainfall in 10 days, the intensity of precipitation and alert thresholds

Experimental Alert Model for Hydrogeological Risk: A Case Study in Sicily 609

working model, together with the poor correlation

between rainfall and mudslides, is considerable and as a

consequence “false alarms” and “missed alarms” are

possible during the inevitable initial calibration period.

These, however, will help to make the necessary

corrections to the system.

In the current absence of more sophisticated

procedures that take into account other parameters

(for example: the air temperature and the consequent

variations of the quantity of water held in the soil) which

could have an effect on the development of mudflows and

debris flows, the only other currently available instruments

of preventive analysis are those which observe rainfall

in real time. Only relatively recently has a band X meteo-

rological micro radar been installed in the area which could

help the real time monitoring of rainfall distribution.

Nonetheless, bearing in mind the predisposition to

hydrogeological instability of the area concerned and

the high level of urbanization, a suitable emergency

plan that is able to activate a timely risk prevention action

is of fundamental importance.

Acknowledgments Many thanks to Tony Lawson for the translation

of this document into English.

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