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THE REGIONAL DIMENSION OF PROTRACTED SOCIAL CONFLICTS: THE CHAOS OF THE AFRICAN GREAT LAKES

Mark Vincent Abdilla

140192(M)

This dissertation is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

Bachelor of Arts (Hons.) in International Relations at the Faculty of Arts

University of Malta

Year 2013

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UNIVERSITY OF MALTA FACULTY/INSTITUTE/CENTRE: Arts

Declaration Student’s I.D. /Code 140192 (M) Student’s Name & Surname Mark Vincent Abdilla Course B.A. (Hons). International Relations

Title of Long Essay/Dissertation/Thesis

The Regional Dimension of Protracted Social Conflicts: The Chaos of the African Great

Lakes

I hereby declare that I am the legitimate author of this Long Essay/Dissertation/Thesis and that it is my original work. No portion of this work has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or institution of learning. ______________________ ______________________ Signature of Student Name of Student (in Caps) _____________________ Date

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In memory of Carmelo Caruana, Anna Marie Caruana and Joseph Abdilla

and to Jane Abdilla

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Acknowledgments

First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Anna Khakee, who

throughout the entirety of my research and even before I had even submitted my

proposal, was there to lend a very valuable helping hand.

I would also like to thank my girlfriend Louise for her love, for supporting me

through thick and thin and without whom this dissertation would certainly have never

been completed.

Last, but certainly not least, I would like to also thank my family, for their constant

assistance towards helping me reach this stage of my education. I couldn’t have done it

without you all.

Thank you!

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Abstract

The current situation in the African Great Lakes can be described as chaotic.

Ever since the states of the region realised their independence in the years after the

Second World War, conflicts over ethnicity, natural resources and declining state

systems have been the common theme. This dissertation set out to analyse the

situation in the African Great Lakes through the lens of the theories of regional conflict

complexes and protracted social conflicts, with the aim being to emphasise that it is

possible for a protracted social conflict to take place on a regional level rather than just

on the domestic level. This was done through the analysis of both the historical and

contemporary dynamics of the conflicts in the African Great Lakes, focusing primarily on

the Rwandan Genocide, the two Congo Wars and the situation in the DRC after peace

had been brokered. It found that whilst the case of the African Great Lakes is in fact a

very good example of a protracted social conflict, it has a predominant regional basis

which defines the entire conflict in the area. This suggested that a protracted social

conflict can very well take place on a regional dimension, thus resulting in a protracted

regional conflict. This allowed for greater flexibility to the theory of protracted social

conflicts through the use of regional conflict complexes.

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Table of Contents

Declaration .................................................................................................................................. ii

Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... iv

Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... v

Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... vi

Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1

The Issues ............................................................................................................................... 1

A map of the dissertation ......................................................................................................... 2

Chapter 1: Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 5

Literature on the African Great Lakes ...................................................................................... 5

Literature on Rwanda .............................................................................................................. 8

Literature on Burundi ............................................................................................................... 9

Literature on the DRC ............................................................................................................ 10

The Report by the Group of Experts ...................................................................................... 12

Where does this dissertation stand in the literature? .............................................................. 14

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 15

Chapter 2: Protracted Social Conflicts and Regional Conflict Complexes .................................. 16

The Theory of Protracted Social Conflicts .............................................................................. 17

Azar’s propositions ............................................................................................................. 17

Regional Conflict Complexes ................................................................................................. 22

The theories and the case study ............................................................................................ 24

Chapter 3: The Methodology ..................................................................................................... 26

The Research Question ......................................................................................................... 26

The case study approach ....................................................................................................... 27

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Other methodological options ................................................................................................ 28

Chapter 4: The History of the African Great Lakes .................................................................... 30

The effects of colonisation and independence ....................................................................... 31

Rwanda and Burundi. ......................................................................................................... 32

The Congo. ........................................................................................................................ 34

The Rwandan Genocide ........................................................................................................ 37

The Two Congo Wars ............................................................................................................ 41

Where did Uganda stand? ..................................................................................................... 43

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 44

Chapter 5: The Contemporary Situation .................................................................................... 46

After the peace process ......................................................................................................... 46

Ethnic Dimensions of the Conflict .......................................................................................... 48

The Deprivation of Human Needs .......................................................................................... 49

The weak centralised state system and state-building ........................................................... 51

International influences and involvement ............................................................................... 53

The regional dimension of protracted social conflicts ............................................................. 55

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 58

Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 61

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Introduction

The Issues

When discussing issues relating to conflict and regional incompatibilities, one of

the most interesting cases in the world today is the African Great Lakes Region. The

region is arguably not only the most unstable on all of the African Continent, but perhaps

the most problematic and volatile in the world today. The region certainly cannot be

omitted from the ‘intra-national crises and violent inter-ethnic and inter-regional

confrontations’ which dominated post-colonial states after the end of the Second World

War (Rwantabagu: 2001, 41).

The ongoing conflict which this dissertation is concerned about, and which is

taking place at the very heart of the African Great Lakes region, is a product of various

issues which have been present since the area was under the colonial occupation of

Belgium, and the results of this occupation after the achievement of independence. The

conflict is centred on a particular area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo; the Kivu

region.1 The Kivu region, being the eastern-most region of the country, has been the

most vulnerable area subject to the conflict; being dominated by a plethora of armed

rebel groups, human rights violations and displacement issues. Ethnicity, weak

governments and the resources of the Kivu region are some of the factors which make

1 The Kivu Region is the Eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It borders Uganda,

Burundi, Rwanda and Zambia. While there are others regions of interests pertaining to the conflict, the Kivu region will be at focus of this research.

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the conflict as complex and deadly as it is. The conflict takes both an intrastate and

interstate form, with rebel groups being at the centre of the regions’ problems, with one

of the primary concerns being the financial and military backing on the parts of Uganda

and Rwanda. Particularly, the ongoing conflicts and clashes, between the rebel groups

on the one hand and the Congolese army and United Nations peacekeepers on the

other, are a primary cause of widespread displacement and the creation of refugee

situations (Human Rights Watch: 2010). The roots behind all this confusion take us

back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which was the catalyst to the region’s woes, and

the factor which led to the eventual eruption of the Second Congo War, 1998 - 2003

(Prunier: 2009). One must also take into consideration the causes of the Rwandan

genocide and the social, economic and political realities which dominated the region

leading up to these atrocities. The post-war situation was not a favourable one for the

Kivu region and thus, despite the presence of United Nations peacekeeping troops, the

region remained an area defined by violence and rebel groups.

A map of the dissertation

‘The area known as the Great Lakes region of Africa has, since the 1960s, been

the arena of civil strife of an often protracted nature’ (Daley: 2006, 203). In her paper,

Patricia Daley defines the African Great Lakes Region as consisting of the Democratic

Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Rwanda, the Republic of Burundi, the Republic

of Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. For the purpose of this dissertation,

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the same states will be included in the study; with the exception of Tanzania, which shall

be omitted from the analysis.2

The main aim of this dissertation is to apply Edward Azar’s theory of Protracted

Social Conflicts to the African Great Lakes, with an important focus being thrown on

whether there is a regional dimension to this theory. To this end, a discussion on the

theory of regional conflict complexes will also be undertaken. In order to carry out this

application, this dissertation will utilise a case study approach, whereby the discussion

will centre on, firstly, the historical issues which originally created the root causes of the

conflict, and then shift towards the contemporary situation, with the distinct aim of

applying the theory. The reason behind the choice of the African Great Lakes is

because this region is constantly identified as a very volatile and fragile region by

various scholars and it is a worthwhile endeavour to focus on a conflict which at times

can be described as taking a back-seat to other on-going conflicts in the world. Through

the analysis of the region’s history and then a more focused look at the conflict

dynamics which are present at the moment, a relevant and feasible application of the

theory can be made, whilst at the same time pushing the theory from the domestic level

to the regional level.

This dissertation will be structured as follows. The first chapter will focus

specifically on the literature which is already available on this region, discussing more

specifically its relevance to this dissertation’s scope. Then a detailed discussion of the

factors of the theory of Protracted Social Conflicts will be undertaken to create an

understanding of what Edward Azar looked to fulfil through his theory. Another chapter

will then shift the focus on the methodology which will offer a more detailed explanation

2 Throughout the turmoil which the African Great Lakes region has experienced, Tanzania has very rarely

played an active role, neither historically nor contemporarily; and thus it would be misleading to include Tanzania as an active actor within the African Great Lakes.

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of the research question and the case-study approach being utilised, along with other

methods which could have been relevant to this research. An analysis of the region’s

history will follow, primarily discussing the most important events from the end of the

Second World War to the eruption of the Second Congo War. The final chapter will

focus on the current conflict situation, taking a more specific look at refugee movements

and interests in natural resources since these are highly volatile issues which are

constantly playing an important role in the region. This chapter will also be centred on

applying the theory to the case-study while also discussing the regional dimension of the

conflict, and its relevance to the theory.

The next chapter will thus focus on the literature review, discussing the relevant

literature on the subject, its relevance to this dissertation, as well as the areas where the

literature is either poor or non-existent. In this way, an idea of how knowledge of this

subject can be improved is provided.

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Chapter 1: Literature Review

Literature on war, conflict and social incompatibilities is aplenty. The vast amount

of literature allows for detailed analysis into various fields of conflict studies. The

purpose of this chapter is to account for the literature which is available on the subject of

conflict in the African Great Lakes Region and which will be utilised throughout the

entirety of this dissertation. The literature which will be discussed and used throughout

this dissertation includes books, journal articles, and reports from the United Nations as

well as international organisations. In order to carry out a more systematic analysis of

the literature, this chapter will be divided according to the subject which the literature is

concerned with, including primarily historical evaluations, literature on refugee

movements and human right situations as well as literature dealing with the

contemporary situation of the African Great Lakes. Most importantly, this chapter will

also address the shortcomings of the literature being utilised in this dissertation and how

the latter can add to the current research in the field of conflict studies.

Literature on the African Great Lakes

Knowledge of the history of the African Great Lakes will prove to be an important

tool of analysis in tackling the research question. Indeed when speaking about the

current conflict raging in the region, it is imperative that the historical dynamics which

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ultimately caused the chaos rampant in the region is discussed and understood. In his

work World Politics 1945 – 2000 Peter Calvocoressi (2001) looks to tackle the situation

which had dominated the entire world as a result of the end of the Second World War.

His analysis of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda and Burundi

focus on the political situation in the three states after they had gained their

independence from Belgium. Calvocoressi proves to be an important reference tool on

this subject; however it is important to note that his work is not dedicated only to the

situation in the African Great Lakes, but on the broader context of the post-World War II

era on a global level and thus, some crucial details are missing from his analysis.

Meanwhile, Patricia Daley (2006) in Challenges to Peace: Conflict Resolution in the

Great Lakes Region of Africa focuses on the peace initiatives which were undertaken

throughout the course of the various conflicts in the history of the African Great Lakes

after decolonisation and independence, providing a suitable addition to our knowledge

on the course of events during this period.

‘If the fate of the African continent evokes hopelessness, nowhere is this sense of

despair more evident than in former Belgian Africa’ (Lemerchand: 2004, 61).

Lemerchand’s focus in his chapter in Facing Ethnic Conflicts (2004) takes a lengthy look

at ethnical conflict within the African Great Lakes. His approach is concerned with the

ethnic history of the region, specifically on the consequences of colonial rule and how

this contributed to the situation where ethnic rivalry was assisting towards the

culmination of conflict. Particularly, his focus falls on political exclusion of ethnic

minorities, such as the Tutsis in Rwanda and the Hutu in Burundi (Lemerchand: 2004).

He also looks towards refugee flows and ‘the illicit exploitation of the Congo’s resources’

as main issues which are fuelling ethnic conflicts in the region (Lemerchand: 2004, 76).

The main focus of this dissertation is to ultimately look at how refugee movements and

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resource gathering are playing into the regional relations between the DRC, Rwanda,

Uganda and Burundi. This chapter is very useful as it provides important insights into

the history of conflict in the region and how societies in this area are divided into the

various ethnic groups, particularly the critical divisions between Hutu and Tutsi ethnic

groups.

Focusing primarily on the instability in the African Great Lakes, Lucy Hovil (2008)

focuses on the concept of displacement and how this contributes towards growing

instability in the African Great Lakes. Her analysis is an important contribution to the

literature on conflict as it ‘explores the relationship between violence that endangers

displacement and the forms of violence that result from displacement’ (Hovil: 2008, 4).

Amongst the most important works on the history of the African Great Lakes,

Gérard Prunier’s Africa’s World War (2009) certainly stands out as one of the most

important. Any research into the African Great Lakes must include Prunier’s work,

which spans from the situation after the Rwandan Genocide and the factors which

dominated the region after the end of the Second Congo War. His analysis is not only

on the domestic level, but also on the international level, where he looks at the effects of

the international world on the situation in the region and what kinds of consequences

these resulted in.

Finally, the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) presents a report

on the current situation in the African Great Lakes (2004). This can be considered as

being one of the most detailed pieces of literature on the subject, as it takes into account

the entire history of the states in the region, both before colonisation and after their

independence. The report is ultimately aimed at coming up with suggestions towards

creating much stronger prospects for a lasting peace in the region, by carrying out an

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analysis of both the historical and contemporary conflict dynamics. It certainly fills in a

lot of gaps which are not addressed by academic literature.

Literature on Rwanda

Rwanda is an important case in the region, mainly because along with the DRC, it

has been at the forefront of the conflict situation in the African Great Lakes. Rwanda is

also the site where the ethnic division between the Hutu and the Tutsi culminated into

the most horrific event the world had ever seen since the Holocaust; the Rwandan

Genocide. Helen M. Hintjens (1999), in her article Explaining the 1994 Genocide in

Rwanda, focuses on the causes behind the ethnic rivalry between the Hutu and the

Tutsi and carries out an analysis of how these factors brought about the genocide. This

work is an extremely important piece of literature in the history of the African Great

Lakes as the genocide can be considered as one of the most pivotal moments in the

region’s build-up towards conflict.

Continuing on the subject of the Rwandan Genocide, Bearing Witness to Mass

Murder from René Lemarchand is what he calls a piece of ‘witness literature’, where the

article here is focused specifically on a firsthand account of the various massacres

which were taking place ‘between October 1996 and September 1997’ (2005, 93). It is

an extremely detailed account of what was taking place in the region, primarily

highlighting the constant chaos which was running rampant as a cause of the violence

taking place between Rwanda and its rebel enemies. Also adding to the literature on

the genocide is Peter Uvin (1997), who in his article Prejudice, Crisis, and Genocide in

Rwanda carries out his own analysis on the causes of the tragedy as well as the

consequences which were brought about by this genocide.

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Villia Jefremovas (1997) carries out an analysis of Rwanda’s pre-colonial history

in comparison to the history which worked its way to the Rwandan Genocide. His

discussion takes into account the various interpretations of the pre-colonial realities of

Rwanda and focuses on the main points which ultimately led to the ethnic issues which

led to the Hutu-Tutsi division.

Literature on Burundi

Literature on Burundi is as important an aspect of the research being carried out

by this dissertation as is the literature on Rwanda. Having been joined to Rwanda as

one colony under Belgian rule, Burundi was subject to the same issues and problems

which plagued Rwanda in the post-independence period. An important author in this

area is Hermenegilde Rwantabagu (2001), whose analysis falls on the civil war in

Burundi. The discussion looks to explain the causes of the civil war, whilst also offering

democratic solutions for the pacification of further threats of conflicts breaking out in the

state, most importantly supported by the international community.

Daniel P. Sullivan (2005) also looks at the civil war in Burundi and why peace

failed on so many occasions. His discussion takes place in the context of consociational

democracy, and while this is not a relevant aspect for this dissertation, it does provide a

good background analysis which provides more insight into the conflict itself.

Perhaps one of the most interesting pieces of literature on the conflicts in both

Burundi and Rwanda is Localized Ethnic Conflict and Genocide: Accounting for

Differences in Rwanda and Burundi by Ravi Bhavnani and David Backer (2000). This

comparative analysis looks to highlight the differences between Rwanda and Burundi in

how the conflicts in their own particular territories were carried out. It is certainly an

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important article as it aids in the understanding of how conflicts in the region ultimately

relate to each other and how the inherent differences between the two states came to

affect the African Great Lakes on a regional dimension.

Literature on the DRC

Being at the very core of the turmoil in the African Great Lakes, the DRC is an

important entity which definitely cannot be put aside when discussing conflict in the

region. As is the case with Rwanda and Burundi, it is important to look at both the

historical aspects of the DRC as well as the current situation to gain a full understanding

of the current conflict dynamics in the Kivu region. There is a great amount of literature

on ranging aspects of the DRC, some of which will be outlined in this section of the

literature review.

Adam Hochschild (2001) in his article Congo’s Many Plunderers provides a very

good assessment of the current situation in the DRC through the historical looking glass,

ranging from the effects of King Leopold II and his actions in the territory to the fall of

Mobutu and the creation of the DRC. Adding to this, Emizet F. Kisangani (2003)

focuses his analysis on the rebel groups in the DRC, discussing primarily their

ideologies and drive for conflict, as well as the main forces driving these rebel groups on

both the external and internal levels.

Literature specifically on the Second Congo War is also an important area of

research which will highly contribute to this dissertation. Filip Reyntjens (1999)

discusses the causes of the Second Congo War after the fall of Mobutu and the

restructuring of Zaire into the DRC. His analysis is highly important as it provides a

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good outline of what happened between the end of the First Congo War and the

eruption of its successive war.

Another important article on conflict in not only the DRC, but also Rwanda and

Burundi, can be found in Jean Migabo Kalere (2005). He discusses genocide mainly

from the political, economic and legal perspectives, however the latter is his main focus

and while this piece of literature adds to the already existing body of knowledge on the

area, it is not wholly relevant to this dissertation. The report by the Human Rights Watch

(2010) can help add to this, as it focuses on refugee movements in the DRC and how

the conflict is aiding in the escalation of human rights violations.

On a more contemporary note, Alex Veit (2010) in his book Intervention as

Indirect Rule: Civil War and Statebuilding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a

focus on the effects of the United Nations in the Ituri region of the DRC is taken up. It is

one of the most important pieces of literature on international linkages on the DRC,

which as will be seen later on, are an important aspect of this dissertation.

On the issue of refugee movements, Kisangani N. F. Emizet (2000) adds to Veit’s

analysis by highlighting the failures of the UN in its peacekeeping. While his perspective

is primarily a legal one, the literature does contribute to the issue of human rights

violations in the DRC.

Lastly we find a case study by Stephanie Matti (2012) on illegal resource

extraction in the DRC, where she focuses on Operation Lightning Storm, an operation

between Uganda, the DRC and Sudan against the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in the

Eastern DRC. This continues to add to our knowledge of interaction between states in

the region (in this case the DRC and Uganda), whilst also emphasising the richness of

the DRC in terms of natural resources.

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The Report by the Group of Experts

Perhaps the most relevant and critical of all the literature on the current situation

in the Great Lakes Region of Africa is the report by the Group of Experts on the DRC

(2012). The main aims of the report include making an analysis of the development of

areas of primary resources, carry out investigations into supposed war criminals and

violators of humanitarian law as well as looking into the provision of armaments for the

various rebel groups (UNSCa: 2012). Yet, the report has one primarily important

outcome, which is having tremendous effects on relations within the region, and this

outcome is expressed within the addendum of the report. According to the Group of

Experts, Rwanda is aiding the rebellion known as March 23 (or M23) in various ways.

(UNSCb: 2012) These include ‘direct assistance in the creation of M23 through the

transport of weapons and soldiers through Rwandan territory’, the provision of sources

of recruitment for M23 and “provision of weapons and ammunition’. (UNSCb: 2012) A

more recent report, which was leaked to Reuters, claims that Uganda is also supporting

the M23 rebellion in the Congo (Reuters: 2012). While it is not the aim of this

dissertation to evaluate whether Rwanda and Uganda are actually supporting the M23

rebellion, there is no doubt that such allegations are having serious effects on the entire

conflict picture in the African Great Lakes and could potentially make it harder for peace

to be found.

On this subject, Times Magazine conducted an interview with Paul Kagame, the

President of Rwanda (Perry: 2012). Such an interview is extremely important as it

presents the point of view of Rwanda on the issue of the war in the Kivu region, in a

scenario where Rwanda is being demonised as a state taking advantage of the chaos in

its neighbour’s territory. As previously stated however, it is not the aim of this

dissertation to prove whether Rwanda is involved in rebel financing or not, yet the

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interview itself provides a very good viewpoint into Rwanda as a state, as well as how

Rwanda and the DRC relate to each other in terms of the M23 rebellion. Kagame

describes the relationship between these two states as being a ‘blood relationship’ and

states that ‘the relationship between Congo and Rwanda has been there since time

immemorial’ (Perry: 2012). This is an important factor to consider when discussing the

region. Kagame also makes note of the effects security in the DRC are having on

Rwanda, notably stating that ‘Our problem in Congo for 18 years has been a security

problem’ (Perry: 2012). In this case, i.e. the case of bilateral relations between Rwanda

and the DRC, it is clear that the tensions created by the conflict in East Kivu are having

drastic effects on inter-state relations. When one considers that the literature on

regional relations in the African Great Lakes is limited, such an interview is an important

piece of evidence which can point to the shifting dynamics of regional relations.

Kagame also makes the important statement: ‘My relationship with President Kabila has

been gradually eroded by things that have happened in the last few weeks’ (Perry:

2012).

This growing rift between Rwanda and the DRC can be described as an ugly

blow to the progress which had been made since the end of the Second Congo War,

when “there was great hope for the region’s political and economic development.”

(Vorrath: 2011, 2) In a special report by the United States Institute of Peace, Judith

Vorrath focuses on political trends in the African Great Lakes, which could have

important effects in the way the conflict in the Kivu region progresses, and how regional

relationships shift as the conflict itself changes. She speaks of great progress in the

relationship between the DRC and Rwanda, stating that ‘hostility between the formerly

opposed governments has lessened’ (Vorrath: 2011, 2). The focus here ultimately falls

on political and electoral trends and it is prime evidence that the constant conflicts in the

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region do not allow for legitimate, democratically elected governments to take over in

these states. In Rwanda, Uganda and the DRC, ‘the incumbent was confirmed in office’

in the latest elections (Vorrath: 2011, 4). The contradiction of Vorrath’s report with that

of the Group of Experts is evident. While this would have been relevant in the year

2011, the Security Council report as has already been described renders the previous

report irrelevant and thus, it cannot be utilised for the purpose of aiding towards the

dissertation’s attempts at theoretical application.

Where does this dissertation stand in the literature?

Certainly, we can conclude that the literature on the subject of conflict in the

African Great Lakes is plentiful, especially in terms of the Rwandan Genocide and the

two Congo Wars. Nevertheless, certain limitations can be identified, and these will

become evident throughout this dissertation as well. To start with, details on certain

aspects of the African Great Lakes, such as ethnicity in the Congo, or political and

economic issues in Rwanda and Burundi, are very scarce in terms of academic

literature. On ethnicity, for example, one is forced to rely solely on Lemerchand (2004)

as he gives the best analysis on these issues in terms of a theoretical perspective. This

leads me to believe that research into this area should be given a priority, as it will

definitely serve to heighten our knowledge on the area. Whilst the literature is quite

varied, there is no sense of variety on specific areas, meaning that one needs to be tied

down to certain literature in order to find the required information.

Ultimately this dissertation is planned to provide a new perspective on the African

Great Lakes; a perspective which not only introduces the theory of protracted social

conflicts to the case study, but also looks to utilise the theory of regional conflict

complexes to further enhance the aforementioned theory. This will help in increasing

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the literature on the area, and hopefully even encourage further research into the

subject at hand.

Conclusion

It can be concluded that there is a very large and varied array of literature on the

African Great Lakes Region, as well as literature focusing on the particular states within

the region. A thorough understanding of this literature is crucial to aid towards the

understanding of conflict dynamics in the region, as well as in aiding our understanding

of conflict theories and their application to the case study of the African Great Lakes. As

was pointed out, there are various different perspectives provided on the subject and

this allows for an even greater understanding of the case study.

Having taken a look at most of the relevant literature which will certainly be

referred to throughout this dissertation, it is now important to take a more detailed and

structured look at the theory which will be used to discuss the conflict in the Kivu

Region, as has already been briefly discussed in this literature review. More

importantly, an analysis of how these theories (i.e. the theory of regional conflict

complexes and the theory of Protracted Social Conflict) can be applied to the factors

and dynamics of the African Great Lakes will also be undertaken.

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Chapter 2: Protracted Social Conflicts and Regional Conflict Complexes

The African Great Lakes Region comprises a number of states, which for

decades have been ravaged and torn apart by conflict on various lines, particularly

because of ethnic incompatibilities and disagreement with domestic regimes. At the

centre of the African Great Lakes is the Kivu region of the DRC, and as has already

been stated, it is in this region that conflict has always been at its strongest form. There

are two viable theoretical approaches which would provide useful means of analysing

how a domestic conflict took the form of a regional conflict and is today severely

affecting the relationships between the states in the African Great Lakes. These

approaches are the theory of protracted social conflicts and the theory of regional

conflict complexes. The main reason behind my choice of these two theories is that the

former was the first theory of its kind to deal with intrastate conflicts, whilst the latter

tackles conflicts at the regional level. The theory of regional conflict complexes is meant

to complement the theory of protracted social conflicts, by providing the latter with a

regional dimension within which it can be analysed and thus, applied. The ultimate goal

of this research is to give a new regional dimension to the theory of protracted social

conflicts and thus, the regional conflict complex theory is the best regional conflict theory

which could aid in this research as it addresses how conflicts within the same region

relate to each other and how they contribute to the overall complexity of the region’s

stability.

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The Theory of Protracted Social Conflicts

The theory of protracted social conflicts was first coined by the conflict analyst Edward

Azar, who had correctly predicted that intrastate conflicts would eventually surpass

interstate conflicts in that they would grow in both importance and frequency

(Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall: 2011). ‘The term “protracted social conflict”

emphasized that the sources of such conflicts lay predominantly within (and across)

rather than between states’ (Ramsbotham et. al: 2011, 100). Edward Azar himself

stated that he is ‘using the term “protracted social conflict” to suggest the type of on-

going and seemingly unresolvable conflict’ (Azar: 1985, 59). It is primarily a theory

which outlines the main causes behind the growth of intrastate conflicts, during a period

when interstate conflicts were still dominating the interest of the international system,

which is what ultimately makes this theory so important in the field of conflict studies and

conflict resolution. Nadine Ansorg, in fact, states that “Not until the end of the Cold War

and the breakdown of the Soviet Union did alternative approaches which placed a

greater focus on regions and regional conflict gain in importance.” (2010, 4) In his work

Protracted International Conflicts: Ten Propositions (1985), Azar highlights the most

important factors which would make up the social, economic and political situations

leading to a protracted social conflict. His focus is to highlight the most important series

of factors which typically make up a intrastate conflict.

Azar’s propositions

The primary feature of a protracted social conflict is its length, hence the use of

the term ‘protracted’. Conflicts of a prolonged nature typically have a certain set of

characteristics which make up the main causes for the conflict in question, as well as the

18

reasons for its prolongation (Azar: 1985) Azar’s first proposition highlights the effects

brought about by irregularities in social and political systems, as well as

underdevelopment. Here, the chances of conflict are highly strengthened when political

opportunities and privileges are not available to all social groups, thus resulting in

serious social cleavages (Azar: 1985).

In his second proposition, he emphasises how the factors related to the first

proposition lead up to communal and ethnic cleavages and mass injustice at various

levels. These types of features are the factors which prove that the state is no longer

the sole actor in a conflict situation. For example, if an ethnic group feels that it is being

repressed by society and that its identity is not being respected, then it can very easily

become a primary actor in a conflict situation. Azar terms such problems as being

‘perceived victimization’ (Azar: 1985, 61). Thus, an important observation is made here,

where:

the source of protracted social conflict is the denial of those elements required in the development of all people and societies, and whose pursuit is a compelling need in all. (Azar: 1985, 60)

What really and truly matters in issues of ethnicity and minority subjugation, ‘is

the denial of those human needs that are common to all and whose pursuit is an

ontological drive in all’ (Azar: 1985, 60). This concept of depriving basic human needs is

Azar’s third proposition, and it is the factor ‘that finally emerges as the source of conflict’

(Azar: 1985, 61). What eventually occurs is that the conflict takes precedence over the

diverging groups who are participating in it. Furthermore, the diverging groups started

utilising the concept of ‘perceived victimization’ to their advantage (Azar: 1985, 61). In

this way, it starts determining the actions of the various actors, and here Azar states

19

how ‘conflictual events are clearly more absorbing and have more impact on

determining the consequent actions of groups and nations’ (1985, 62). Because of this,

cooperative events are usually not enough to overcome a protracted social conflict.

According to his fourth proposition, this view of being victims stems from the

identity groups inability to maintain a separate identity within the state’s political process,

‘an absence of security of culture and valued relationships’ and the inability to ultimately

deal directly with the perception of victimisation (Azar: 1985, 61). These three

consequences of conflict are ultimately issues which only serve to further strengthen the

nature of the conflict, thus contributing to its protraction.

In his fifth proposition, Azar makes a further observation to his discussion of

social group cleavages, where ‘human needs and long-standing cultural values’ are non-

negotiable factors in any conflict and thus, the focus must fall on other factors in a

conflict, namely those ‘interests which derive from personal roles and opportunities

within existing political systems’ (Azar: 1985, 61).

Azar’s sixth proposition makes a useful addition to the issues of human needs

deprivation in the third proposition where ‘conflictual and cooperative events flow

together even in the most severe of intense conflicts’ (Azar: 1985, 62). In this context,

cooperative events are quite frequently more numerous than conflictual events, however

the underlying problem is always the fact that the latter type of events are more visible

and absorbing, thus making cooperative events and the positive effects they could have

on the conflict situation invisible. Thus, in relation to ethnic cleavages, negotiations

must centre on grievances and not on the cultural aspects of the opposing groups.

20

For Azar, the most important unit of analysis is the identity groups, which

usually incorporates the group or groups which have a dispute with the national

government of the state in question. These groups are usually also defined by the

aspect which unites the members of this group, such as ethnicity, religion and culture

(Azar: 1985). ‘For the purpose of describing, explaining and predicting the dynamics of

a protracted social conflict situation, the identity group is more informative than the

nation-state’ (Azar: 1985, 62). This is emphasised in his seventh proposition. What

Azar means with this is that when it comes to analysing the main issues which make up

a protracted social conflict, identity groups provide the analyst which much more

information on ‘the societal needs of the individual’, while the state gives a much

broader view as a unit of analysis (Azar: 1985, 63).

Another important issue, which is emphasised in the eight proposition, is the

international system and its contribution and involvement in domestic conflicts. The

involvement of outside states in domestic conflicts could very well have two completely

opposite effects; either they would contribute to a possible resolution of the conflict or

they could very well intensify the conflict. Azar uses the example of Cyprus, where the

conflict revolved around whether the Cypriots should identify themselves with Greece or

Turkey, and this would eventually lead to a division of the state between the Greek and

Turkish Cypriots (Azar: 1985). This is becoming even more prevalent in the

contemporary world, especially with the phenomenon of state-sponsored terrorism.

Conflicts always start out with a primary set of actors and their specific goals, but with

the interference of other states and organisations, new sub-actors and more complex

conflict dynamics become essential parts of the conflict (Azar: 1985).

Finally, one last aspect of protracted social conflicts is the deprivation of human

needs, as is emphasised in the ninth proposition. Here the unit of analysis remains the

21

identity group, however the state has a more important role as it is usually the entity

which has to ensure that basic human needs are being met for its population (Azar:

1985). When these human needs are not met and consequences such as

underdevelopment, disease and poverty become rife within society, then the chances of

a conflict erupting are much higher. Actors act in a conflict “to satisfy their needs” first

and foremost, and thus the state of human needs in society is an essential factor in

determining whether a conflict will take place (Azar: 1985, 64). At the same time, once

the conflict erupts, Azar also makes the assertion that centralised institutions do not

have the effect of lessening the dangers of protracted social conflicts, but at times,

centralised structures contribute to the strengthening of the conflict.

Here, the state becomes the main unit of analysis, as is emphasised in his tenth

and final proposal. This is mainly because they ‘reduce the opportunity for a sense of

community among groups’ (Azar: 1985, 65). At the same time, a more decentralised

system gives more power to local authorities and this would mean that identity groups

would be much more respected since they could quite possibly hold some power at the

local level; which they do not enjoy at the national level. A possible solution here would

be to allow dissatisfied groups more power on a local level however in this regard local

authorities have their own short-comings as they could foster autocratic rule and while

they may be satisfactory on a local level, they may not be able to address important

regional issues (Azar: 1985). Thus, the discussion of protracted social conflicts must

take into account the identity groups on the one hand and the state and the way it works

on the other. Both units of analysis must be present.

Ramsbotham, Woodhouse and Miall summarise the entire theory of

protracted social conflicts, as defined by Azar through his ten propositions, as having

22

four main factors which, when satisfied, would qualify a domestic conflict as being a

protracted social conflict (2011). These are:

i) The presence of dissatisfied identity groups3

ii) A deprivation of basic human needs4

iii) A weak centralised state system or unsatisfactory local authorities5

iv) Negative influence from international forces, including both state and non-

state actors6

Regional Conflict Complexes

The theory of regional conflict complexes is also an important analytical tool in

conflict studies and it is a worthwhile theory to discuss and analyse as the ultimate

scope of this dissertation is to apply the theory of protracted social conflict on a regional

basis. Since the theory of protracted social conflicts deals primarily with domestic

conflicts, it is important to utilise a theory which analyses conflicts at the regional level.

‘Regional conflict systems are characterised by their complexity of actors, causes,

structural conditions and dynamics’ (Ansorg: 2011, 174). The whole idea behind

regions, particularly their importance, became popular with the end of the Cold War,

mainly due to the ‘”regionalization” of world politics’ (Ramsbotham et. al: 2011, 112).

Peter Wallensteen uses the term ‘conflict complex’ to describe a set of interconnected

factors which make up a conflict (Wallensteen: 2007, 193). He describes a regional

conflict complex as being a set of interconnections between two separate conflicts

occurring in the same region. These factors come in different forms and all contribute to

3 Emphasised by propositions #2, #4, #5, #6 and #7.

4 Emphasised by propositions #1, #2, #3 and #5.

5 Emphasised by propositions #1, #4, #9 and #10.

6 Emphasised by proposition #8

23

the creation of a regional conflict complex. Furthermore, Wallensteen emphasises that

‘a particular conflict is rarely left alone to be the concern of only the original parties’

(Wallensteen: 2007, 193). Ansorg outlines one of the more distinctive and important

factors as being the presence of a failed state within a region. (Ansorg: 2010). This

would be even more dramatic and problematic if there are several failed states within

the same region stringed together. Such a definition is very similar to the basic factors

behind a protracted social conflict, in the sense that it prompts the interference of

exterior actors in a domestic conflict. Thus it can be argued that a protracted social

conflict can possess a very strong regional dimension. Nadine Ansorg emphasises how:

massive refugee flows and the economic and political weakness of a conflict area, as after the genocide in Rwanda and the war in Burundi in the 1990s, can cause tensions in a whole region (2011, 175).

These types of situations are what make regional conflict complexes, as

ultimately, states within the region vie for their survival when their neighbours collapse

into conflict situations, usually doing so by interfering directly into the state itself. This

idea will become ever more manifest in later chapters.

Yet the main problem with approaches towards regions and regional conflict

complexes is one of perspective. Ansorg emphasises that most scholarly perspectives

into this area take the views of neo-realism and neo-liberalism, mainly because they

focus primarily, and in some cases just, on the state (2011). Yet, this does not mean

that the theory itself is of either a neo-realist or a neo-liberal nature. In this scenario, as

with Azar’s theory, there are other units of analysis which must be consulted, meaning

that the state is not the only unit of analysis. It is no longer only about the dynamics of

the state but also about regional dynamics which make up a regional conflict complex

(Ansorg: 2011, 176). Issues such as ethnicities and their varying interests are issues

which are on the rise and are constant factors in contemporary intrastate and regional

24

conflicts. It is ultimately the interconnection of these varying factors which come to

formulate a regional conflict complex.

Furthermore, the concept of regional conflict complexes has a deep connection

with one of the major factors of protracted social conflict as has been explained; this

being the role of the international system. As has already been outlined, a conflict in a

state could very well prompt its neighbours to interfere. As such, neighbouring states

eventually become important actors within the conflict itself, whether they involve

themselves directly through military interference, or even through arms exports to either

the state or the rebellious groups.

The theories and the case study

The ultimate aim of this dissertation is to bring together the theories described in

this chapter and utilise the case study of the African Great Lakes Region as a medium

through which the theory of protracted social conflicts may adopt a regional dimension.

What will follow after the next chapter on the research methodology is an analysis of the

case study on both historical and contemporary settings. The reasons behind the

choice of these two theories lies within the fact that I feel they are the perfect way of

understanding the current situation in the African Great Lakes. At the same time, I also

feel that the case study itself will lend itself as a perfect example through which the

relevance of both these theories can be expressed. As will be seen in the next

chapters, a conflict such as that of the African Great Lakes is one which simply cannot

be dealt with simply on a domestic level. The regional level is a factor which must be

analysed for a full understanding of the conflict dynamics of the region. Thus, the

research which is being undertaken here will not only assist in a better understanding of

25

the conflict at hand, but it will contribute to a strengthening of the theories by bringing

them together during the discussion of the case study.

The next chapter will now discuss the main research methods which are being

utilised in this dissertation, along with a closer look at the research question which is the

central concern of this research.

26

Chapter 3: The Methodology

As with any research project which is undertaken, it is important to discuss the

methodology which is being put to use in the writing of this dissertation. This chapter

will be focusing on the type of method that will be utilised to carry out the study, whilst at

the same time discussing the method on a more general level. It will also highlight other

possibilities which would have enriched the study, yet were unfeasible.

The Research Question

The focus of this dissertation is an application of the theory of protracted social

conflicts and the theory of regional conflict complexes to the case of the conflict in the

Kivu region of the DRC. The main scope is to prove that it is possible for a protracted

social conflict to take place at a regional level rather than simply at the domestic level.

Thus, the main research question of this dissertation is as follows: Is it possible for a

Protracted Social Conflict to take place on a regional level rather than just at the

domestic level? In order to carry out such a study, the methodological approach chosen

here is the case-study approach, with the specific case study being the conflict in the

African Great Lakes Region. Also, because the research is focused on a conflict which

is still ongoing this research will take 17 October 2012 as the cut-off date, this being the

27

date that Reuters reported that Uganda were assisting the M23 rebel movement,

alongside Rwanda.

The case study approach

The case-study approach is all about tackling the research question by carrying

out a detailed analysis of one or more particular cases which would be relevant to the

research at hand. As quoted by Blaxter, Hughes and Tight, Yin describes the case

study as being ‘the method of choice when the phenomenon under study is not readily

distinguishable from its context’ (2001, 71). Case studies are extremely useful and

amongst the most popular methodological approaches in the social sciences. Case

studies are a perfect way to “illustrate problems or indicate good practices” and, at the

same time, they are useful in the sense that they help link the theoretical aspects of the

field of study with the practical realities of the social world (Blaxter et. al: 2001, 71).

The case study approach has various advantages as well as disadvantages.

Primarily the use of case studies allows for a stronger and more detailed approach

towards the research question and the field of study, and at the same time, they provide

a very flexible approach towards the subject at hand, allowing for more general views

through the use of numerous case studies or focused and detailed studies through a

minimal number of case studies. More importantly, they ‘can provide a date source from

which further analysis can be made’ (Blaxter et. al: 2001, 73). Thus the case-study

approach not only allows for an extensive approach towards the subject; it also allows

for that research to be built upon in the future, thus widening the subject matter for

further investigation later on.

Yet, as with all other methodological approaches, the case-study has its

drawbacks. Primarily, the context created by the case study could very well be

28

confusing in terms of where it begins and ends (Blaxter et. al: 2001, 73). This makes it

very easy for a researcher to delve away from the focus of his research, and fall into

areas which would be considered irrelevant. At the same time, it can prove difficult to

focus only on the most relevant aspects of the case since everything would seem

relevant. Blaxter, Hughes and Tight compare the case-study approach to a Russian

doll, in the sense that ‘each piece of data rests inside another, separate but related’

(2001, 73). Thus it is essential that the researcher be able to establish which pieces of

data are most relevant to his research, and which pieces of data are not as relevant.

On a final note, in relation to case studies, there are various ways in how one

comes to approach the study, and this differs in terms of the number of case studies and

the method in which the case study will be analysed. In this dissertation, a single case

study will be adopted; which is the conflict in the African Great Lakes Region. The case

study approach will be descriptive; as such it will be an approach which will allow a

better method for applying the theory to the case study and thus provide a satisfactory

answer to the research question.

Other methodological options

The case-study approach offers a viable method at approaching the field and the

research question, yet there are various ways in which one could approach the method

of case studies. This could be done by including interviews as an essential part of the

case study’s analysis. Interviews are particularly useful because they may provide

information which would not be readily available in literature. Yet, I found it extremely

difficult to take up this path mainly because there are no experts on the African Great

Lakes Region in Malta. The relative distance between Malta and the region of interest

29

also meant that I could not make direct contact with experts within the region, and this

would make conducting an interview that much harder. My research into this subject is

also limited by the word count I have to adhere to. A lengthier word count would have

definitely allowed me to venture into other case studies around the globe, for

comparative purposes, such as the case of the Balkans.

Despite the outlined limitations however, the case study of the African Great

Lakes allows for a viable approach towards the research question and allows for the

application of the protracted social conflict and the regional conflict complexes theory.

What will now follow is a discussion on the historical factors which have influenced the

contemporary situation in the region, allowing for a much more in-depth look at what

makes the African Great Lakes region such an important case study in the area of

protracted conflicts.

30

Chapter 4: The History of the African Great Lakes

In order to grasp an understanding of the current issues which are present in the

African Great Lakes Region, it is a worthwhile endeavour to explore the history of the

region. The current situation in the African Great Lakes can be attributed to various

historical factors and the conflict dynamics which have developed as a result of these

factors. Understanding the historical realities of any given region is a necessity when it

comes to gaining an understanding of the contemporary situation in that region. In the

case of this dissertation, the contemporary situation in the African Great Lakes is one

which is a direct result of the region’s history, particularly from the moment of

colonisation onwards, as well as the effects of the quick withdrawal by the colonial

powers, particularly in the DRC, Rwanda and Burundi.

The aim of this chapter will be to carry out an analysis of the effects of

colonisation on the region, and how this has played a role in the conflicts which plagued

the region after the Second World War. Through such an analysis, this chapter will help

discern the origins of ethnic turmoil, the realities of poverty and the weaknesses of the

state systems present in the region. At the same time, this chapter will also allow a view

of the influence of external actors within the region, and how these states have come

together at different points to affect developments within the African Great Lakes.

31

The effects of colonisation and independence

‘Scholars argue that the prospect for conflict in a country depends, to a significant

degree, on the type and fairness of its political system. Closed, authoritarian systems

are likely to generate considerable resentment over time, especially if the interests of

some ethnic groups are served at the cost of others’ (Rwantabagu: 2001, 43). As this

section will focus on, it was ultimately the Belgian belief that the Tutsi group was

ethnically superior to the Hutu group that was the catalyst for all the chaos and conflict

which has dominated the African Great Lakes Region. Peter Calvocoressi (2001)

emphasises how the situation in Central Africa as a result of independence was a

unique phenomenon which did not occur throughout the rest of the continent. While

other regions like West Africa and East Africa having become ‘independent without

anything that could be called an international crisis’, the African Great Lakes was a

completely different story, with ‘the independence of the Belgian Congo having

produced not only internal chaos and civil war but also a serious international crisis’

(Calvocoressi: 2001, 639). What is most important to note here is that the

independence of the states in the African Great Lakes was not a smooth process, so

much so that it led to complete chaos. Yet, what is it that makes the African Great

Lakes region so different to the rest of the continent? Part of the blame for the constant

instability since the independence of the various states in the region must fall on the

colonisers themselves. Gérard Prunier (2009) comments that the main issue, which

was prevalent in the entire colonial picture, was that the Europeans could not

understand that what worked for them would not work for Africa. Boundaries in

particular could not be defined in the traditional western sense of the word. Instead,

they were characterised by ‘linguistic, cultural, military, or commercial’ factors, in what

32

was a very ‘delicate cobweb of relationships’ (Prunier: 2009, xxix). In this sense, Prunier

is emphasising that Africa’s borders were not about the politics of states, but really and

truly, this cobweb was all about people differentiating themselves on the basis of the

various factors as previously described. What the colonisers ultimately did was that they

disturbed this cobweb, and doing this would only lead to havoc and instability, as the

population of the African Great Lakes in particular were not used to this kind of political

setup. SIDA argues that before colonisation, ‘interlinked culturally, economically and

politically’ (2004, 98). One of the consequences of this was the Hutu-Tutsi division,

which will be discussed later on. It is this instability which primarily contributed to the

conflicts which have been rampant in the region, particularly the civil wars in Rwanda

and Burundi, and the much larger Second Congo War, which was the most destructive

conflict not only in the region, but in the entire history of Africa.

The African Great Lakes Region was largely characterised with the Belgians as

the main colonisers. Taking into account the four main actors at the centre of this

dissertation’s case study, Uganda is the only case where Belgium was not in control.

Also, since its role differs to that of Rwanda, Burundi and the Congo within the African

Great Lakes, Uganda will be tackled in a separate section later on in this chapter.

Rwanda and Burundi. Originally a German colony, Rwanda became a Belgian

mandate by the end of the First World War, being jointly administered with Burundi

(Calvocoressi: 2001). Independence led to the creation of a Republic in Rwanda and a

Tutsi monarchy in Burundi (Calvocoressi: 2001). As was the case throughout the rest of

the region, the two dominant ethnic groups in Rwanda where the Hutus and the Tutsis

(Lemarchand: 2004). What makes the case of Rwanda so interesting is that it was in

Rwanda that the Hutu-Tutsi conflict was at its most violent form. Prunier defines the

33

Rwandan Genocide of 1994 as having been the ‘catalyst’ which precipitated what would

become known as Africa’s World War and causing the international crisis previously

mentioned (2009, xxxi).

What made the ethnic rivalry between Hutus and Tutsis so strong in both Rwanda

and Burundi was the fact that throughout Belgium’s mandate, the colonisers made it a

point to elevate the Tutsi group above the Hutus, giving the illusion that the former were

ethnically superior to the latter (Calvocoressi: 2001). This meant that the Hutus were

heavily marginalised in society and thus, a natural resentment against the Tutsi started

to rankle. In fact, the Tutsi hegemony only came to an end with the Hutu revolution of

1959, and it can be argued that at this point, the instability in the African Great Lakes

was starting to rear its ugly head (Lemarchand: 2004). The revolution not only allowed

the Hutu to become the dominant ethnic group in Rwanda, but it also led to the exile of

70,000 Tutsi to Uganda, 50’000 Tutsi to Burundi and 25’000 to the Congo (Lemarchand:

2004, 63).7 The refugees who had escaped towards the neighbouring states would

continue to play an important role in Rwanda’s history, particularly in the run-up to the

genocide. The post-independence state of affairs was already showing signs of

instability, with cross-border movements to neighbouring states as well as genocidal

massacres.

The situation in Burundi was both similar and different with regards to the Hutu-

Tutsi rivalry. Lemarchand states that ‘the “premise of inequality” was far less

institutionalized and social relations were more complex’ and ‘ethnic polarization

proceeded at a slower pace’ (2004, 63). What this ultimately means is that unlike in

Rwanda, where the revolution almost immediately meant that the Tutsi would lose their

7 Here, the Congo refers to the territory which was known as the Belgian Congo before having gained

independence. It would go on to become Zaire and then the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as it is known today.

34

grip on power, the case in Burundi was the Tutsi had an opportunity to consolidate their

hold on power. What ultimately occurred was that while there were various attempts by

the Hutu to overthrow the Tutsi, each attempt ended in failure (Lemarchand: 2004). The

final attempt at taking control from the Tutsi in 1972 led to a large scale massacre of

Hutu, ranging from 100,000 to 200,000 people (Lemarchand: 2004).

The Congo. When analysing the colonial history of the Congo, it becomes very

evident that the post-independence situation was arguably the most fragile in the region,

with Prunier stating that the ‘government structure was so rotten that the brush of a hand

could cause it to collapse’ (2009, xxxi). What makes the Congo so important within the

entire context of the African Great Lakes is that it was the Kivu region, in the eastern

region of the Congo, , which was at the centre of the chaos. The Congo fell under the

direct administration of the Belgian King Leopold II during the conference organised by

the International African Association in 1876 (Hochschild: 2001). Until the territory was

transferred to the Belgian state in 1908, it was known as the Congo Free State, with

Leopold II creating ‘a slave labour regime’ in order to take full advantage of the vast

amounts of wild rubber vines, which could be found in the rainforests of the Congo Free

State (Hochschild: 2001, 287).8

The end of the Second World War brought with it the decline of colonial empires

and Belgium was not excluded from this. Independence for the Congo was an

accelerated affair, with Belgium trying to get it over with as fast as it could possibly

manage (Calvocoressi: 2001). Yet the issue here was very evident; the Congolese were

definitely not ready for independence mainly because Belgium had always made it a

8 This regime has led to excessive poverty, since there were very few people left to actually to take up

farming, fishing and hunting. While men were usually sent into the forest to gather quotas of rubber, their women were held prisoners as ‘insurance’.

35

point to restrict any form of education above elementary level to a very reserved minority

of the population. So on 30th June 1960, the Congo became an independent state, and

before the week was even at an end, there were already mutinies taking place in the

army (Calvocoressi: 2001).

What this mutiny primarily did was that it denied the Congolese government a

way to assert its power and authority, and thus this meant that the government was in a

very vulnerable and fragile position. It also had the effect of encouraging Congolese

politician Moise Tshombe to attempt to separate the rich state of Katanga from the rest

of the Congo. Calvocoressi labels Katanga as an important region because its

resources had made it ‘twice as rich as the whole of the rest of the Congo’ since the

Belgian state had taken over the administration of the territory in 1908 (2001, 640).

Losing a region like Katanga was definitely something which the Congo needed to

avoid. The Katanga issue is important mainly because it had brought in not only the

Belgian authorities but also the United Nations. The chaos which was created by the

attempt at secession led to a coup by Colonel Joseph Mobutu in 1965 (SIDA: 2004).

The secession failed after a year yet its effects were felt strongly throughout the entire

country. It was something that the weak state system, which had come into effect after

independence, was not ready for and it immediately led to a collapse. The coup itself

however was obviously not the end of problems, as the country became split between

those who supported it and those who supported the former government (Calvocoressi:

2001). The UN however was successful here, particularly because it was able to control

Belgium and Russia, two states which were both trying to take advantage of the fragility

of the Congo.9 It was also able to keep ‘the Congolese economy going’ and was able to

9 The presence of Belgium and Russia endangered the Congo, and the UN feared that as a result of this,

Africa could develop into a vast Cold War theatre.

36

stave off various civil wars which but not for its presence would have been much worse

(Calvocoressi: 2001, 650). This was the first instance in the region where there was

international involvement, and in this case it was very successful at ensuring that the

situation did not worsen.10 This fact became even more evident because the coup by

Mobutu had taken place only a year after the UN had departed from the region. In 1971,

he renamed the country Zaire (SIDA: 2004).

An important note must be made at this point about ethnicity in Zaire.

Lemerchand (2004) emphasises how the ethnic groupings in the Kivu region were

characterised through three distinctive communities. Firstly, there were the Hutu and

the Tutsi who had settled in Kivu before the creation of the Congo Free State, although

these were not as numerous as in Rwanda and Burundi. Secondly, during colonial rule

itself, there were the ‘descendants of migrant workers, mostly Hutu, brought in from

Rwanda in the 1930s and 1940s’ (Lemerchand: 2004, 63). Finally, after the Hutu

revolution in Rwanda, there were the Tutsi refugees who had escaped from the

neighbouring state. The importance of ethnicity in Zaire is that it shows us how ethnicity

was not simply a domestic concern, but one which encompassed the entire African

Great Lakes and thus, these issues cannot be analysed solely from the domestic point

of view.

What is evident in the cases of Rwanda and Burundi is that from the moment of

independence, the Hutu looked to seize power from the Tutsi, who had been dominating

society from the very beginning of the Belgian mandate. The situations were similar as

the mandate was run on the concept of jointly administrating both Rwanda and Burundi,

10

The UN was able to control the outbreak of civil war, however its departure left the state susceptible to instability and violence.

37

and thus the effects of colonisation were experienced by both states on the same level.

Yet, the difference here becomes evident in the post-independence period, with the

Hutu revolution in Rwanda succeeding almost instantaneously and leading to a

massacre of Tutsi and large scale cross-border movements. Because of all this, ‘its

political system was now inverted, with a small Hutu elite on top of the political power

structure’ (Uvin: 1997, 96). In Burundi, the exact opposite happened, with Hutu

uprisings constantly failing and eventually leading to a very violent massacre of the Hutu

population. Meanwhile the Congo was a situation where the fragility of the state system,

caused primarily by the speed with which the Belgians withdrew from the country,

dictated the way the situation developed. The situation in the Congo had grown so dire

that the United Nations was forced to intervene, and while it had been effective in its

operations, its withdrawal allowed for Colonel Mobutu to take control of the entire state.

Having taken a look at how the Congo/Zaire, Rwanda and Burundi developed

after their independence and the main issues they faced, the focus of this chapter will

now move to one of the most important developments in the region which changed the

whole dimension of the conflict; the Rwandan genocide.

The Rwandan Genocide

‘The genocide took place under the aegis of the state, and Rwandans were the

main actors involved’ (Hitjens: 1999, 241). The spark which led to the flame that is the

genocide was the death of Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana (Hitjens: 1999). This

led to the biggest genocide the world witnessed since the Holocaust during the Second

World War. Yet, the death of the Rwandan President was not the sole cause of the

genocide. ‘This genocide was the culmination of a four year period during which civil

38

war and extremist violence cost the lives of tens of thousands of persons’ (Uvin: 1997).

Uvin agrees with Prunier (2009) in assessing that this genocide did not only mean

trouble for Rwanda, but it was only ‘the beginning of further violence in Rwanda, Burundi

and Zaire’ (Uvin: 1997). By this point, the African Great Lakes region was plunged into

a sea of instability, from which it has not yet emerged to this present day.

Hitjens defines a genocide as being:

a form of one-sided mass killing in which the state or other authority intends to destroy a group, as that group and membership in it are identified by the perpetrator (1999, 246).

Thus, it is all about one group, defined by certain characteristics which make it

stand out, carrying out the systematic and thorough elimination of another group. The

genocide was ultimately all about the Hutu regime doing what it could to hold on to the

power it had won during the revolution of 1959. Uvin identifies three processes which

contributed to the run-up to the genocide (1997).

Firstly, Rwanda was dominated by internal discontent, and this was present even

amongst the Hutu who had been excluded from political power which had been won as

a result of the revolution. This discontent was also fuelled by the poor quality of

development in the state, as well as widespread corruption (Uvin: 1997).

Secondly, the Tutsi refugees who had escaped to Uganda during the revolution

were causing a very dangerous problem for the Hutu government. In 1990, the Front

Patriotique Rwandais (FPR) invaded Rwanda (Uvin: 1997). Although the government

was able to push the invasion back, the FPR won control of a section of Rwanda’s

territory and the threat became a permanent one (Uvin: 1997). Although a cease-fire

had been agreed between the FPR and the government, the death of the President in

1994 ended the agreement.

39

Finally, the end of the Cold War also led to changes to Rwanda. The Cold War

had brought with it large periods of time where political development had become frozen

in African states, meaning that there were no external pressures for African

governments to democratise (Prunier: 2009). The end of the Cold War however led to

the international community ‘putting strong pressure on the regime to democratize, to

negotiate power sharing with the FPR and the domestic opposition and to organize free

elections’ (Uvin: 108). This led to the advent of political parties in Rwanda, and today, it

is the FPR which is the dominant political party in Rwanda, with its leader Paul Kagame

holding the position of Rwanda’s President.

The irony is that where before independence, it was the Hutu who were

segregated in society, the situation just before the genocide was the complete opposite.

For example, there were various cases were Hutu and Tutsi would intermarry (Hitjens:

1999). Thus, the rivalry between the Hutu and the Tutsi which led up to the genocide

was being strongly exaggerated by the Hutu. This had the effect of placing Hutu in the

list of casualties caused by the genocide, and as one would come to expect, the

genocide was something which would be retained in the memories of Rwandans, as it

was ultimately ‘a hill-by-hill and a home-by-home thing’ (Prunier: 2009, 1).The genocide

had become ‘intertwined with everyday life’ and this reality dominates Rwandan society

to this very day (Prunier: 2009, 3).

One of the worse consequences of this genocide was that the former Hutu

government escaped to Zaire, while great amounts of refugees crossed the borders to

Zaire, Tanzania and Burundi (Prunier: 2009).11 The consequence of these mass

refugee movements was to continue to foster the region’s instability, whilst the Hutu

11

The former Government eventually became known as the Army for the Liberation of Rwanda, or Interahamwe.

40

government’s flight to Zaire led to mass tensions between that state and Rwanda. This

newly-found tension would only be the beginning of a more complex series of events

which would lead to the most deadly conflict in the history of Africa, as will be discussed

later on.

On the international front, the genocide commanded a lot of interest. Prunier

(2009) identifies two distinct reactions from the international community. Firstly, there

was shock at how the Convention on the Prevention of Genocide of 1948 ‘could be

violated in full view of the United Nations and the world’s TV cameras’ (Prunier: 2009,

29). At the same time though, Rwanda was considered to be an unimportant state and

thus, while the genocide did create awareness, the typical man on the street just did not

care (Prunier: 2009, 29). Despite this however, the international community was quick

to provide aid and assistance, primarily setting up refugee camps on the borders of

Rwanda to assist the people, both Tutsi and Hutu who wanted nothing to do with the

genocide, in fleeing the state (Prunier: 2009). Despite this humanitarian aid, no real

action was taken when it came to the issues between Zaire and Rwanda. The reason

behind this was that the UN Security Council was unable to take action due to the

differing views of France and the USA, with the former wishing to take action against

Rwanda and the latter hoping to take action against Zaire (Prunier: 2009).12 Some sort

of action from the Security Council could have prevented the conflict from escalating in

the way it did however this was not to be. Instead it led to two subsequent wars which

would come to dominate the region for the next decade.

12

Since these two states both possess a veto in the UN Security Council, the latter was unable to proceed with setting up a suitable response to the situation in the region.

41

The Two Congo Wars

The causes of the First and Second Congo War are complex and, as has been

seen so far in this chapter, directly attributable to the ethnic tensions and the weak state

systems in the African Great Lakes. Filip Reyntjens (1999) describes the conflicts as

being amalgamations of three conflicts; the civil wars in Angola and Sudan and the

conflict in the African Great Lakes. The focus here will remain on the African Great

Lakes however, as it is impossible to delve into the details of the other two conflicts due

to the constraints and limitations imposed by the word count.

The First Congo War erupted in 1996 and eventually resulted in the overthrowing

of Mobutu’s government and its replacement with the government of Laurent-Désiré

Kabila. The First Congo War was only the first episode of what would become an

international crisis. Its causes were intimately linked to the Rwandan Genocide and its

aftermath, namely the large number of refugees fleeing to Eastern Zaire. Prunier (2009)

emphasises the weakness of the government in Zaire and this ultimately meant that the

Kivu region was an extremely vulnerable region, which could very easily be exploited by

both rebel groups and neighbouring states alike. The position of the Kivu region at the

very centre of the African Great Lakes made it an attractive location for fleeing refugees

not only from Rwanda, but also Burundian refugees, as a result of the 1993 explosion in

Burundi13 (Prunier: 2009, 53). These refugee camps became the mediums through the

Interahamwe started their operations against Rwanda. While this was not the only

cause of the First Congo War, it did set the stage for Rwanda to intervene in Zaire with

the intention of overthrowing Mobutu (Prunier: 2009). At the same time, it would be able

to act against the Interahamwe. Ultimately however, its interests were highly influenced

by the genocide and its military movements into Zaire were meant at ‘countering the

13

Referring to the civil war in Burundi caused by the assassination of the state’s President.

42

military threat posed to the new Rwandese regime by the remnants of the former regime

who were rearming under the cover of the refugee camps’ (Prunier: 2009, 73). The war

set the scenario for the Second Congo War, with Sudan already slowly pressing its

influence into the region, while Uganda joined Rwanda in supporting Kabila in his push

against Mobutu (Prunier: 2009). Burundi’s stance in the war was also anti-Mobutu but

participation was very limited. In 1997, Angola joined the rebel advance due to the

Mobutu government’s relationship with UNITA14 (Prunier: 2009). Ultimately, the result of

the year-long conflict was the downfall of Mobutu’s government and at this point, Zaire

became known as the DRC.

The Second Congo War is considered to have been the most devastating conflict

in the history of Africa. Reyntjens (1999) emphasises how the overthrowing of the

Mobutu Regime in 1997 lead to a backlash involving states both inside the region, as

well as those on its periphery. As stated at the very start of this section, the Second

Congo War was a result of overlapping conflicts which ultimately came together at the

very centre of the African Great Lakes, such as had happened in the First Congo War

(Prunier: 2009).

One of the top reasons why the tensions in the region did not stop with the fall of

the Mobutu regime was primarily because ‘when the anti-Mobutu crusade started,

practically all the countries surrounding what was then Zaire were in a state either of

extreme fragility or even of open conflict’ (Prunier: 2009, 167). As the Second Congo

War started looming on the horizon, these fundamentals had not changed, and thus the

region was still as fragile and unstable as ever. Another reason may be found in the

difference between Mobutu and Kabila, in the sense that Kabila was able in rallying

14

The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola was a constant menace to the Angolan government during most of the post-independence period.

43

allies, particularly after his falling out with both Rwanda and Uganda (Calvocoressi:

2001). These allies included Namibia, Angola and Zimbabwe and eventually the war

broke out between Kabila and these states, joined by various rebel groups; on the one

hand against opposing rebel groups, under the support of Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda

on the other (Calvocoressi: 2001). The conflict lasted from 1998 – 2003, with Kabila

being assassinated in 2001, leading to his son, Joseph Kabila, taking over (Prunier:

2009). This was a key moment as he was ultimately able to make peace deals which

stopped the war both with Uganda and Rwanda, as well as internal rebels (Prunier:

2009).

Where did Uganda stand?

The scope of this section focusing specifically on Uganda is not to give a detailed

history of the state but rather to connect it to the region which this dissertation has thus

far focused on. The situation in Uganda was very different to that in the Congo, Burundi

and Rwanda. While Uganda is part of the African Great Lakes Region, it formed part of

the Commonwealth, as opposed to its Belgian-dominated neighbours in the African

Great Lakes. Despite this however it has been a constant actor in the region,

particularly in the current M23 rebel movements which will be part of the discussion in

the next chapter.

The fact that Uganda was not under Belgian colonisation meant that it followed a

different path to the one followed by Rwanda, Burundi and the Congo. Before Uganda’s

independence in 1962, it had been a British protectorate since 1914 (Calvocoressi:

2001). Yet, it has been an important actor in the African Great Lakes, and this is

primarily because the region has served as a hub for Ugandan rebel groups to attack

44

Uganda through. For this reason alone, Uganda would immediately look to make its

presence felt in favour of its security interests. At the same time, the refugee crises

which have been rampant in the region, as highlighted throughout the entirety of this

chapter, has been something which has directly affected Uganda, to an extent where it

is expected to increase its presence and influence in the region. Its actions today, like

the actions of Rwanda and Burundi, are ultimately connected to the conflicts known as

the two Congo Wars, as these have left an important mark in anything which happens in

the region.

Conclusion

This chapter has focused on the period from the independence of the states

within the African Great Lakes to the end of the Second Congo War in 2003. It is

evident that the contributions of Belgian colonisation on the ethnic rivalries within

Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC, as well as the weaknesses of these state systems after

independence, were major factors in the instability which came to ultimately dominate

the region. It is also noteworthy that at this stage, the conflicts in the region are

exhibiting the signs outlined in this dissertation’s theoretical chapter, thus making these

conflicts exemplary protracted social conflicts. The Hutu-Tutsi rivalry established ethnic

tensions at the very centre of the regional chaos, whilst the weaknesses of the state of

Zaire only served to add fuel to the fire. At the same time, this chaos was causing a

great influx of refugee movements across borders, with the main focus here falling on

the former Rwandan government escaping to Zaire after the genocide and setting up

operations against Rwanda from eastern Zaire. Last, but definitely not least, the

constant intervention by external forces in eastern Zaire only served to further the

45

complexity of the situation and this definitely did not contribute to a quicker peace

process.

The focus of the next chapter will fall on an analysis of the contemporary

situation, and it will look to first determine whether the conflicts in the region still satisfy

the requirements for a protracted social conflict, whilst also looking to apply the theory

on a regional level through the use of the regional conflict complex theory.

46

Chapter 5: The Contemporary Situation

The previous chapter assisted us in gaining an understanding of the kind of

situation which was prevalent in our case study of the African Great Lakes from the end

of the Second World War to the peace agreement which ended the Second Congo War

in 2003. The focus will now shift to the more recent situation in the DRC’s Kivu region,

the roles of Rwanda and Uganda in this region and particularly on the four main issues

which were outlined in the theoretical chapter from Azar’s ten propositions (1985). The

previous chapter has already offered a glimpse into the idea that the conflict in the

African Great Lakes is not simply a domestic conflict, but a regional one with elements

originating Azar’s theory of protracted social conflicts, which in essence, are domestic

conflicts. Thus, this chapter will look to prove that the current situation is in fact a

perfect example of how a protracted social conflict can be defined at the regional level.

Before this analysis however, this chapter will open with a look at the situation after the

end of the Second Congo War.

After the peace process

‘A year after the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo officially ended on 30

June 2003, more than one thousand civilians continued to die every day’ from health

issues, famine and other conditions which came as a result of the Second Congo War

47

(Autesserre: 2007, 423). Practically, the peace process had completely failed and for

this reason, the conflict continued to ravage the Kivu region of the Democratic Republic

of the DRC. Séverine Autesserre (2007) attributes this to persisting conflicts at the local

level and thus, various areas of the region remained very dangerous and unstable. Yet

it is not the only reason behind the protracted conflict situation.

On the regional level, the whole problem can be traced to Uganda and Rwanda

supporting rebel groups in the Kivu region, with Rwandan troops continuing in their

direct activity in the region (Autesserre: 2007). Meanwhile, Prunier (2009) argues that

this was the result of political leaders being unable to turn the ideas behind the peace

process ‘into some kind of reality’ (301). One must also take into account the fact that

the transitional government in the DRC was showing signs of instability, and this left the

state very vulnerable to the issues which were still to be resolved (Prunier: 2009)15. At

the same time, Rwandan presence was still strong in the Kivu primarily because

Rwanda still felt threatened by Hutu militias operating in the region, and it was hoping to

exploit ‘the Kivus' mineral resources’ (Autesserre: 2007, 426). At various points,

Rwanda threatened to invade the Kivu region again to deal with the Hutu militias,

particularly the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), yet these

threats were dismissed both by the UN and the Congolese transitional government itself,

because they simply did not want Rwanda to involve itself in the DRC again for fear of

triggering another regional crisis (Autusserre: 2007).

Thus the peace process, whilst having been successful at downgrading the

intensity and spread of the conflict, was unable to lead to a complete peace within the

region. Ethnic tensions still flourished between Rwanda and Hutu militias in the Kivu,

the weakness of the central Congolese government made the eastern periphery of the

15

Elections did not take place until 2006.

48

state very vulnerable to outside incursion, the presence of rebel groups led to social

issues which the DRC governments could not address effectively because of both its

weakness and its inability to control the national army, and all this, adding as well the

rich mineral resources in the Kivu region, led to both the direct and the indirect

involvement of Uganda and Rwanda in the region.16

Ethnic Dimensions of the Conflict

Through his seventh proposition, Edward Azar emphasises the importance of

identity groups as the most important unit of analysis in a protracted social conflict

(1985). As was emphasised in the previous chapter, conflict in the African Great Lakes

has been greatly influenced by the divide between the Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups.

Today, this issue is still at the forefront as can be seen through the composition of rebel

groups in the region, such as the FDLR, which is primarily a Burundian Hutu-based

group, as well as the National Congress for the Defence of the People, which is

composed of Tutsi (Human Rights Watch: 2010, UNSC: 2012a). Certainly, the scale of

the conflict today cannot even begin to be compared with the chaos that had gripped the

region in the 1990s as a result of the Hutu-Tutsi rivalry, yet still it is an issue which is

present today on a smaller scale. From the four factors identified in protracted social

conflicts, this is the currently the weakest one as relates to our case study of the African

Great Lakes because as we will see, the other three conflict factors are present on a

much stronger and more evident scale. This contrasts with the previous chapter, where

the principal issues for regional instability were directly related to ethnic rivalries,

16

These social issues included the fact that the government could not provide security to the civilians residing of the Kivu region, and these civilians were in turn experiencing famine, malnutrition and poverty, which the government could not address.

49

particularly between the Hutus and the Tutsis. The ethnic dimension of the current

conflict is ultimately reserved to the fact that certain rebel groups operating in the area

are based specifically on ethnic beliefs. These ethnic beliefs are the product of the

same ethnic issues between the Hutu and the Tutsi which dominated the post-

independence period in the region, as was emphasised in the previous chapter. The

main ethnic issues in the region were reserved to Rwanda and Burundi, and with the

end of the Second Congo War, the role and influence of these ethnic divisions were no

longer as strong on the regional level and thus, they were no longer the main driving

force for the conflict’s intensity. They only serve to give Rwanda a reason to maintain its

strong influence in the eastern regions of the DRC, through the argument that Rwanda

needs to continue striking against the FDLR for the latter’s role in the genocide.

Nevertheless, these groups contribute to the continuation of ethnic divisions in the

region and thus, this is still an issue which is present in the contemporary conflict. As

Azar stated through his second proposition, ethnic divisions ‘are deep-rooted in the lives

and ontological being of those concerned’ (Azar: 1985, 60).

The Deprivation of Human Needs

The deprivation of human needs is arguably the most common theme in Azar’s

ten proposals, mainly because this theme incorporates other factors such as ethnic

divisions and weak state systems; the former because ethnic minorities are usually

subject to maltreatment and the latter because a weak state system means an even

weaker standard of living for the citizens of the state in question. In his ninth

proposition, Edward Azar (1985) emphasised how depriving basic human needs leads

to resentment amongst those whose needs are not being met, thereby making the

50

perfect environment for a conflict to foster, and then erupt further down the road. One of

the biggest concerns in the African Great Lakes today is the giant wave of refugees

dominating the borders of the Kivu region.

As of April 2010 at least 1.8 million people were displaced—the fourth largest internal displacement in the world—1.4 million of whom were in the volatile provinces of North and South Kivu bordering Rwanda (Human Rights Watch: 2010, 5).

The Human Rights Watch report (2010) emphasises how the constant conflict in

the Kivu has led to widespread abuse of human rights and to recurring displacement.

Thus what we have here is not essentially a case where human needs deprivation

causes a conflict to occur, but rather a case where the failure of meeting basic human

needs is caused by the actual conflict. Thus, the deprivation of human needs in this

case is contributing to the increased complexity and prolongation of the conflict. One

must always keep in mind that ‘conflicts fluctuate in intensity over time’ and in the case

of the Kivu region, the conflict’s intensity is increasing because this deprivation of human

needs is not being tackled properly.

When it comes to human rights violations and weak enforcement the DRC

can be considered as being one of the most dangerous states to live in (Foreign Policy:

2012). Since the end of the Second Congo War, famine and disease were amongst the

greatest concerns of the vast majority of the population, and this was mostly a result of

the post-war chaos which was gripping the country (Prunier: 2009). The state has today

been named the ‘rape capital of the world’, with various reports stating ‘that 48 women

are raped every hour’ (Lloyd-Davies: 2011). One of the principal reasons for this chaos

is because the national army is the largest perpetrator for human rights abuses (Veit:

2010). This is because the FDLR frequently mix in with the Congolese population and

more often than not, this ends in disaster for the villagers, leading to the burning down of

the village and the rape of women by the FDLR (Human Rights Watch: 2010). At the

51

same time, people very rarely find refuge with the army since various soldiers are quick

to accuse them of conspiring with the FDLR (Human Rights Watch: 2010).

These human rights violations, rampant throughout the entire state, ultimately

contributed to the conflict’s complexity and longevity (Hovil: 2008). They also add to the

dangers of having a weak centralised state system as well as an inability to control the

national army. This will be discussed in the subsequent section.

The weak centralised state system and state-building

An important aspect in any domestic or regional conflict is ultimately the power of

the central state system. Azar here makes an important point: ‘Conflict is likely to erupt

once again as soon as there is any change in the balance of forces, in leadership, or in

some other significant ecopolitical conditions’ (1985, 60). After the peace agreement in

2003, a transitional government was set up, yet the transition itself was very lengthy and

actual elections were postponed at various times (Prunier: 2009). At the same time, a

draft constitution was written up by Kabila, and this was to be forwarded to a popular

referendum (Prunier: 2009). The result was ‘a resounding triumph for the transition

process’ as the draft constitution was approved (Prunier: 2009, 304). The system

remained weak however and one major problem which was emerging, and is still an

issue to this very day, is the issue of security (Prunier: 2009). The new government was

thus tasked with building up an efficient national army and an effective police force.

However, the latter were very undisciplined, and this automatically led to heightened

social unrest, thus continuing to contribute to the weakness of the central system.

Prunier emphasises the fact that there were ultimately two Congos; on the one hand you

52

had the area ‘which grumbled and complained but lived roughly in peace’ and then there

was the other area, which constantly wondered ‘if the war had really ended’ (2009, 309).

In this situation, one must also consider the effects of the international world,

particularly the United Nations Organization Mission in the DRC (MONUC) and its

international supporters. What was most necessary after the elections was a positive

process of state-building, and in this area, MONUC ‘aspired to erect a stable, liberal

order’ (Veit: 2010, 209). According to Veit (2010), the most powerful institution in state-

building processes is ultimately the armed forces because it is the armed forces which

establishes and defends the state’s monopoly on violence. The top problem in this

respect is that international institutions ultimately favour states institutions and practices

which most resemble their own beliefs, even though these beliefs do not coincide with

what is best for the state in question (Veit: 2010). Nevertheless, the issue of security

was still an important consideration in the entire process of state-building. To this end,

MONUC centred its focus on the Congolese National Army, eventually leading to an

‘intermediary relationship’ between the two sides, with the Army assisting MONUC in

regions the latter could not control due to limited manpower (Veit: 2010, 221). Yet,

eventually problems started to arise mainly because the army was seemingly pursuing

its own hidden agenda when dealing with rebel groups, while also, as was mentioned in

the previous section, being the main source of human rights violations in the entire state

(Veit: 2010).

The most recent development is the army mutiny, which led to the emergence of

the M23 rebel movement, commanded by Colonel Makenga and General Ntaganda

(UNSC: 2012a). As will be emphasised in the next section, this mutiny has been highly

subjected to involvement on the part of both Rwanda and Uganda. Nevertheless, the

53

weakness of the Congolese government can only add to the chaos and instability of the

state’s eastern regions, whilst also giving neighbouring states incentive to get involved.

International influences and involvement

Azar (1985) gives special attention to the effects and influences of external

presence and influence on protracted social conflicts through his eighth proposition.

From the four principal factors of protracted social conflicts, it is this area which is most

pertinent to our case study; mainly because it is the one factor from the four sets of

factors we have been discussing which has had the most impact on conflict in the

African Great Lakes. On the one hand, we must speak on the role of the United

Nations, particularly through MONUC, as well as the roles of Uganda and Rwanda,

especially with regards to their roles in the M23 rebel movement. Thus what we have

here is the presence of an intergovernmental organisation, together with the influence of

two neighbouring states.

During the Second Congo War, there were various state actors involved in the

conflict, many of which were outside the African Great Lakes region, as defined in this

dissertation. By the time of the 2003 peace process, these actors had withdrawn from

the region, yet Rwanda and Uganda were the two actors which continued to involve

themselves in the Eastern regions of the DRC (Prunier: 2009). The latest developments

today have seen the United Nations Security Council accusing both Rwanda and

Uganda of providing assistance and support to the M23 rebel group, and this can be

summed up through Azar, where he stated that ‘in whatever arena the actors behave,

they do so to satisfy their needs’ (1985, 64). Here, the actions of Rwanda and Uganda,

54

particularly with regards to M23, are all directly attributable to their interests in the DRC,

which again mainly revolve around resource exploitation.

Yet, what are the reasons behind Uganda and Rwanda constantly interfering in

the DRC? Prunier (2009) emphasises how President Museveni, the current President of

Uganda, intervened in the Second Congo War and continued to ensure Ugandan

presence thereafter, for two reasons. Firstly, ‘Museveni’ still cherished a certain image

of himself as the elder statesman of eastern and central Africa’ and thus, a successful

war in what used to be Zaire would have ensured that he is seen as an important

figurehead in Africa (Prunier: 2009, 291). Secondly, various officers within the Ugandan

army had important commercial interests in the DRC, mostly exploiting the natural

resources of the Kivu region, and they commanded enough influence to ensure that

Ugandan presence remain in the DRC, even after the war. Meanwhile, Rwanda was

‘the odd man out, the last country trying to hang on to its bloody chunk of the Congo’

(Prunier: 2009, 293). Rwanda was simply not willing to meet the peace, particularly

because the Interahamwe were still operating. From the Rwandan side, the US was

heavily involved as well, trying to promote MONUC while at the same time trying to

assure Rwanda that MONUC would be able to take care of any Interahamwe which

were still active (Prunier: 2009). In this way it attempted to keep Rwanda away from

involving itself in the DRC as much as possible. Thus, the US would ensure Rwanda

would not get involved in the DRC for the sake of fighting the rebel groups.

The UN made an important distinction between Rwanda and Uganda in their

roles within the region. Both states were accused of illegal exploitation of the resources

of the eastern regions of the DRC. Yet the difference lies in the method through which

these resources where exploited, with the Rwandan government actively coordinating

the exploitation, while from Uganda’s side, this was a more private endeavour by various

55

member of the Ugandan military forces (Prunier: 2009). A good example of the latter

case is Operation Lightning Thunder, which was a mission launched by Uganda, the

DRC and Sudan against the LRA in Congolese territory (Matti: 2012). In this set-up, the

DRC decided to contribute a substantial amount of manpower, to the operation, and in

this way, it was able to ensure against any illegal exploitation which could have been

carried out on the part of the Ugandan forces (Matti: 2012). The DRC realised that

certain entities within the Ugandan army would be looking to take advantage of their

presence in the Kivu, and thus the DRC wanted to ensure that it could protect its own

territory not only from the rebel groups, but also from Ugandan interests. As we have

seen in Azar’s sixth proposition, conflictual events overshadow cooperative events,

because the former are more consuming and absorbing. This is shown not only through

the aforementioned operation, where cooperation between the DRC and Uganda was

not wholly successful because the conflict was still creating tensions, but also in the

interview with Rwandan President Paul Kagame (Perry: 2012). In this, Kagame

emphasises that despite the fact that the DRC and Rwanda do command positive

relations between each other at the best of times, the conflict and the region’s instability

ultimately do more harm than good. Thus what we have here is a scenario where

constant involvement from neighbouring states did not allow for a successful transition

from war to peace to take place. Instead, this constant interference prolonged the

conflict, ensuring that it retains its regional dimension.

The regional dimension of protracted social conflicts

The current ongoing conflict in the DRC can be said to fit perfectly within the

parameters of a protracted social conflict. As was seen from his ten propositions in the

56

theoretical chapter, four principal factors were identified which make up the foundations

of this type of conflict. Ethnic divisions and the demands of specific identity groups had

been the hot topic of the region for various decades after the Second World War, but

these died down after the Second Congo War, making this the weakest of the four

conflict factors. Ethnicity is only an issue in the perception of certain rebel groups, yet

other than this, the issue is no longer one of major concern in the region. The

deprivation of human needs is a factor which has been present in the region whenever

conflict was near, and remained a constant presence even during times when conflict

was not as strong. It is this factor which makes the region so notorious for its human

rights violations as well as its instability. The strength and influence of the central

Congolese government under Joseph Kabila is definitely an important aspect when it

comes to the state’s ability to maintain control of a conflict situation, and since the

government’s strength is very weak in the east, the state is essentially very vulnerable

both to rebel groups as well as outside interference. Finally, the most important and

powerful factor is the issue of external interference, because it is this factor which has

not only strengthened the complexity of the conflict in the Kivu region, but is also the

factor which gives the entire situation a strong regional dimension. In this scenario,

Uganda and Rwanda have been heavily involving themselves in the region even after

the other actors involved in the Second Congo War had withdrawn, and today these two

states are accused of supporting the M23 rebel movement within the DRC. At the same

time, one must not forget about the influence of MONUC, which has also been

discussed in this chapter.

One must also keep Burundi in mind. This state has not been mentioned in this

chapter, mainly because the continued conflict in Burundi does not have a spillover

effect into the DRC and thus it is not as relevant to the research as Rwanda and

57

Uganda, both of which are directly involved in the DRC. Nevertheless, SIDA emphasise

that conflict does have opportunities for a regional settlement, and thus, Burundi forms

part of the regional conflict complex of the African Great Lakes in terms of conflict

resolution (2004). Theorists would ultimately agree that the conflict in Burundi does not

really result in the consequences created by the conflict in the Kivu, because the latter is

a much larger reality and has a large amount of international involvement, while Burundi

does not have such involvement on this scale.

What makes this so interesting is the fact that these four factors intertwine and for

this reason, the conflict becomes that much more complex. At the same time, it is

evident that anything which happens in the DRC will in some way or another affect the

greater area of the African Great Lakes. This is what ultimately makes the conflict as

regional as it was social. Domestic conflicts in the region, such as the LRA rebellion in

Uganda, tend to spill over into the DRC and this can only lead to more chaos and

instability. For this reason, as well as other reasons outlined in this chapter, the conflict

is ultimately a regional one, yet it is one which carries all the evidence of a protracted

social conflict. Arguably, it is the regional dimension of this conflict which makes it

protracted and thus, it is a dimension which certainly must be at the forefront of any

research on the region.

58

Conclusion

The ultimate aim of this dissertation has been to discuss the current ongoing

conflict in the African Great Lakes Region through the lens of the protracted social

conflict theory and the theory of regional conflict complexes, thus offering a new

perspective into the issues the region is currently facing. Through this discussion, this

dissertation sets out to answer the question of whether protracted social conflicts could

adopt a regional dimension. The reason behind adopting this choice of theories is

because on the one hand, the conflicts in the African Great Lakes have constantly

played a role in creating a much larger conflict spanning the entire region, which is

where the theory of regional conflict complexes allows us to gain a better understanding

of the regional dynamics of the conflict itself. The single case study adopted for this aim

was the conflict in the African Great Lakes, focusing on the historical situations which

led to the contemporary conflict, whilst also discussing how this conflict has progressed

since the end of the Second Congo War and how it relates to the theory of protracted

social conflicts. This was done through the four factors which were outlined from

Edward Azar’s ten proposals.

This dissertation has most importantly found that the conflict in the African Great

Lakes is in fact a protracted regional conflict, where all the requirements for a protracted

social conflict are not only met on the domestic level but also on the regional level.

From the preceding two chapters on the history of the region and on the contemporary

situation, it can be concluded that the conflict in the African Great Lakes can never be

confined to only the DRC, because Rwanda and Uganda will always find that whatever

happens in the DRC will come to affect them in some way or another. This has been

59

emphasised by Uganda’s interest in the DRC’s natural resources as well as its role,

along with Rwanda, in assisting the M23 rebel group.

Some weaknesses can be noted in this dissertation. Primarily, it would have

been worthwhile to obtain interviews in order to obtain information which would not have

been available in the literature. However, as was mentioned in the methodology

chapter, this was not possible due the various constraints outlined. Also, due to the

limitations imposed by the word count, the research had to be limited to certain areas of

the case study, as there are certainly more areas which would have contributed to the

fulfilment of the research question.

This dissertation is also aimed at encouraging further research into the African

Great Lakes. As was seen in the literature review, there is already a good amount of

literature on the subject; however there are a lot of opportunities for further research.

Primarily the research of this dissertation could be improved upon through the utilisation

of interviews, either with experts in the field, or with people who are active in the area,

such as aid workers or UN workers, who are much closer to the conflict and can thus

provide the researcher with a much more detailed account on the everyday situation.

Another option would have been to add another case study to the research, and thus

carry out a comparative analysis which would have certainly aided in emphasising the

relevance of the theories concerned with this dissertation. Furthermore, research into

areas such as the UN’s role in the conflict and into its diplomatic methods in attempting

to pacify the situation can be carried out. This would definitely not only contribute to

enriching the literature currently available on the subject, but could also assist towards

the negotiation of a lasting peace through an analysis of possible routes which peace

talks could take. One could also focus their research on the role of the African Union,

60

which was not explored in this dissertation, as well as on humanitarian aid in the region,

which certainly commands a good deal of research on its own.

Ultimately, the scope of this dissertation is not only to prove that protracted social

conflicts can take up a regional dimension, but also to encourage new research into this

area of international relations. Research should never be confined to separate areas of

the world, but should instead tackle the vast amount of areas and subjects which make

up an integral part of the discipline. Being perhaps the most unstable continent in the

world today, Africa will certainly benefit from increased research into the tribulations it

faces on a daily basis.

61

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