Failure analysis - Baseform
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Transcript of Failure analysis - Baseform
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Failure analysis
Failure Analysis predicts future pipe or
sewer failure rates for a given network,
e.g. in the context of prioritizing pipes
for intervention, or estimating risk or
cost metrics.
It offers a choice of two statistical
models, Poisson and LEYP, to predict
the probability of failure of individual
elements or groups of elements.
Input files required:
• a failures data file, containing a record
of pipe/sewer failure events;
• a pipe data file, with the complete
inventory of pipes/sewers.
Where to start?
To start a Failure analysis, click on an
existing file from the list, or hit the
Create New button (top right).
A word on file types
Failure Analysis uses its own file type to
store the analysis: the Failure analysis
file.
Additionally, it retrieves failure records
from another file type, the Failure
Analysis failure data file; and pipe/
sewer register data from a third file type,
the Failure Analysis pipe data file.
Dependencies
Each Failure Analysis file has a formal
dependency on both data files
mentioned above.
Baseform Core keeps track of file
dependencies even when individual
files are renamed or moved.
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Start a new Failure analysis
After typing a name for your new Failure
Analysis file and pressing the Create
button, the program opens in the Main
Window.
The first step in a new analysis is to add
the two input files: Pipe data and Failure
data.
Begin by clicking on the Pipe data tab,
at the top of the window.
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Add a Pipe Data file
In order to add pipe data, you can create a
new Pipe Data file, or link with an existing
one.
To create a new Pipe Data file, simply type
in a file name, then hit Add New. This leads
to the Pipe Data editor.
To link with an existing Pipe Data file,
select the desired folder, select a file from
the list, and hit the Link button.
In the example above, there is one file called
“Pipes database”. Linking to it takes us to
the Pipe Data editor.
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The Pipe Data file editor
The Pipe Data file editor shows the data
contained in the file selected (in case it is a
new file, there will be no data).
You can either:
• edit data by clicking directly on any row
(then confirming/canceling the edit or
deleting the row, to the right);
• add new rows of data by clicking the Add
Row button; or
• download the table to an MS®Excel®
spreadsheet format on your computer –
then edit or add data by copying from an
appropriate source, before uploading
again.
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Now add a Failure Data file
Just like when adding a Pipe Data file, you
can create a new Failure Data file, or link
with an existing one.
In this example, we will link with the existing
Failure Data file shown (“Failures
database”).
The process is exactly similar, and leads to a
Failure Data editor with the same features
and capabilities, including direct editing
and MS®Excel® spreadsheet download and
upload for copying or editing large amounts
of data.
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Running a Poisson analysis
Now go back to the Summary tab, select
Poisson in the Simulation area on the
left, and hit the Run Simulation button.
A table with descriptive statistics is
shown in the main area. These are not
model results and simply describe the
pipe and failure data selected.
The bottom table shows Poisson model
aggregated results: probability of failure
(per year, per km), by pipe material.
Detailed, pipe-by-pipe results can be
accessed by clicking on the Results by
pipe tab at the top.
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Now a LEYP analysis
LEYP, a more sophisticated and
demanding model, is also available.
Select LEYP in the Simulation area on
the left, type a target year for the
prediction (2015 in the example), and hit
the Run Simulation button.
The bottom table now shows the LEYP
model aggregated results, by pipe
material: predicted failure rates, and
LEYP model parameters with
information on model fit (reliability).
A simulation log can be viewed in the
Simulation area, with model progress
and statistics, including run times.
As with Poisson, pipe-by-pipe results
can be accessed by clicking on the
Results by pipe tab at the top.
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Results by pipe
Clicking on the Results by pipe tab at the
top gives access to a full list of pipes and
their estimated probability of failure (probl./
year) and failure rate (fails./year).
The list can be sorted by any of the columns,
using the selector on the right.
Results may be downloaded to an
MS®Excel® spreadsheet format.
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Linking a network model
If a network simulation model
(Epanet .inp) is available for the network
under analysis, it is possible to link the
failure analysis to it.
Go the Network info area on the left,
click on the Select Network button,
navigate to the desired folder, and
choose a .inp file.
This makes available the failure analysis
results in the Network Model tool, when
invoking the .inp file, which enables full
2D and 3D mapping visualization,
alongside all hydraulic analysis results.
The pipe-by-pipe results are also
graphically displayed on the map shown
in the Network info area on the left.
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Managing your file
Hitting the Manage File button in the
File Info area of any tool brings up the
File Info Viewer of the Data Manager.
Here, a file may be renamed, moved,
copied, duplicated or downloaded in a
backup format.
If you wish to save your current analysis
file with a different name (‘Save As’), use
the Duplicate As option.
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