European Mitigation and Adaptation Potentials: Conclusions and Recommendations

Chapter 9: European Mitigation and Adaptation Potentials: Conclusions and Recommendations

Seppo Kellomäki and Heli Peltola

University of Joensuu, Finland B. Bauwens, M. Dekker and F. Mohren

Wageningen University Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group,

The Netherlands Franz-W. Badeck.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany Carlos Gracia, Anabel Sánchez, Eduard Pla and Santi Sabaté

Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Barcelona, Spain Marcus Lindner and Ari Pussinen European Forest Institute, Finland

Table of contents of Chapter 9 1. Outlines for assessing and implementing adaptation of forestry to climate change 402

1.1. General ............................................................................................................ 402 1.2. Assessment of the need for adaptive management ......................................... 403 1.3. Framework for actions in the adaptive management ....................................... 403 1.4. Outlines for identifying of adaptive management ............................................. 406

2. Adaptive management in Boreal Forests ................................................................ 406 2.1. Potential damage and opportunities................................................................. 406 2.2. Patterns of adaptive management ................................................................... 407

3. Adaptive management in Atlantic Forests............................................................... 410 3.1. Potential damage and opportunities................................................................. 410 3.2. Patterns of adaptive management ................................................................... 413

4. Adaptive management in Continental Forests ........................................................ 415 4.1. Potential damage and opportunities................................................................. 415 4.2. Patterns of adaptive management ................................................................... 418

5. Adaptive management in Mediterranean Forests.................................................... 420 5.1. Potential damage and opportunities................................................................. 420 5.2. Patterns of adaptive management ................................................................... 421

6. European adaptation and mitigation potentials ....................................................... 422 6.1. Comparison of the results from regional case studies, with implications for forest management........................................................................................................... 422 6.2. Mitigation through Europe: results based on the large-scale forestry model.... 423

7. General conclusions................................................................................................ 424 References.................................................................................................................. 427

402 Chapter 9: European Mitigation and Adaptation Potentials…

1. Outlines for assessing and implementing adaptation of forestry to climate change 1.1. General Following Spittlehouse and Steward (2003), the adaptation of forestry to climate change

needs to: (i) establish objectives for the future forestry as affected by climate change; (ii)

determine the vulnerability of ecosystems, forest communities and societies; (iii) develop

present and future cost-effective adaptation activities; (iv) manage the forests to reduce

vulnerability; (v) monitor the state of the forests and identify when critical thresholds are

reached; and (vi) manage to reduce the impact when it occurs, speed recovery, and

reduce vulnerability to further climate change (Figure 1).

Properties of forest

Management objectives

Assessment of the need for adaptive

adaptation

Monitoring

Identifying when critical

thresholds are exceeded

Identifying the adaptive strategy

and measures

Implementation of adaptive

strategy and measures

Management planning

Gene management

Forest protection

Silvicultural management

Technology and infrastructure

Figure 1. Outlines for identifying the needs for adaptation, with defining adaptive strategy and measures. In the SilviStrat Project, the main focus in forestry was assumed to be on the production

of timber and the sequestration of carbon in forests. Furthermore, the maintenance and

enhancement of biodiversity and water yield were addressed. However, these services

were only of minor importance in the project. In this context, the development of

adaptation activities is addressed, with the main focus on reducing the vulnerability of

forests towards climate change.

Chapter 9: European Mitigation and Adaptation Potentials… 403

1.2. Assessment of the need for adaptive management Adaptive management aims at moderating or offsetting the potential damage or taking

advantages of opportunities created by a given climate change. In this context, adaptive

forest management is a strategy enabling the structure and the consequent functioning

of the forest ecosystem to resist harmful impacts of climate change, and to utilise the

opportunities created by climate change.

The need for adaptive forest management varies throughout Europe and is related

to the vulnerability of forests to climate change. In the following, this need is assessed

based on the IPCC principles (Climate Change 2001, p. 89-90), with criteria defining: i.e.

degree to what climate will change and what is the degree of the climate variability;

degree of exposure to which the forests are exposed to the climate hazards; impacts or

effects of climate change on the forests, with climate sensitivities; degree to what extent

the forests may adapt autonomously; and residual or net impact, with a need to actively

adapt forests to climate change. Based on these points, the assessment principles

presented in Table 1 (next page) were identified.

1.3. Framework for actions in the adaptive management Following Spittlehouse and Steward (2003), the adaptation in forestry may be broken

into the following topic areas: (i) gene management; (ii) forest protection; (iii) forest

regeneration; (iv) silvicultural management; (v) forest operations; (vi) non-timber

resources; and (vii) park and wilderness area management. In the SilviStrat Project, the

focus was on silvicultural management, but gene management was also addressed in

terms of choice of tree species and the tree species composition. Consequently, the

framework presented in Table 2 was adopted to address the actions needed in the

adaptive management.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228601739_Adaptation_to_climate_change_in_forest_management?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-e44625dd92caf5bd2fc91abcb9176818-XXX&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzQwMTIwNTkxO0FTOjEwNzMyODc0MTMxODY1NkAxNDAyNjAwNTc0MTIy


Table 1. Guidelines for assessment of the need for adaptive management.

Topic area to be assessed Description of factors affecting the need for adaptive management

Climate change and climate variability

- Identifying how the climate will change in terms of temperature and precipitation, with any changes in the seasonal variability in the climate parameters. - Identifying how climate change may alter the duration of snow cover and soil frost. - Identifying how climate change may alter risk of high winds and heavy snowfall with wet snow. - Identifying how climate change may alter soil moisture availability.

Climate sensitivities of forests and impacts of climate change

- Identifying how climate change may reduce and/or enhance regeneration and growth. - Identifying if any species is superior in utilising climate change by gaining dominance in the future species composition of forests. - Identifying how risks of damage induced by fire, wind, snow, insects and pathogens may be altered by climate change.

Capacity of autonomous adaptation

- Identifying the capacity of the main tree species to adapt to climate change through genetic adaptation. - Identifying the resistance of the main tree species to local insects and pathogens, and to episodes of high wind and/or heavy snowfall and fire. - Identifying how the main tree species may respond to climate change through natural seeding. - Identifying how the main tree species are responding to climate change through growth with a consequent quality of timber.

Vulnerability - Identifying the most vulnerable forest areas, with the highest risk for the current forest to disappear or to loose their unique feature. - Identifying if there is any risk for permanent change in the tree species composition, with disappearing genotypes currently dominating forests. - Identifying any reduction in tree growth, and the quality of timber. - Identifying if abiotic and biotic damage are likely to increase, with major losses in the quantity and quality of timber, and the enhancement of unscheduled cuttings and management. - Identifying if there is any reduction of the carrying capacity of soils, with problems in harvesting and transportation of timber.

Need for planned adaptation

- Identifying if there is any need to gene management, with necessary transfer of genotypes and new species, in order to avoid any major damage and to maintain the growth of forests. - Identifying the suitable tree species composition for adapting forests to climate change. - Identifying if any modifications of thinning practices (timing, intensity) and the rotation length are needed to avoid any adverse impacts and to utilise the opportunities. - Identifying if there is any additional need to management practices to reduce the risk of abiotic and biotic damage. - Identifying if there is an increased need to maintain infrastructure for forestry and non-timber forest production.


Table 2. Framework for the actions needed in adaptive management. Area to be assessed Description Management planning - Management planning systems, with a need to include the climate change impacts and risk management and management plans. - Management planning to modify the properties of forest landscape to reduce the risk of abiotic and biotic damage. - Management planning to maintain and enhance the structural properties of forest landscape important for conservation of biodiversity.

Management planning provides the strategic framework for the management operation specified in the silvicultural management used to adapt the functioning and structure of the forests to climate change in order to avoid adverse impacts of climate change and to utilise the opportunities created by climate change.

Gene management - Tree species composition and preference of selected species currently dominating forests. - Modification of genetic structure of forests through proper choice of provenances, breeding programme or introduction of exotic tree species.

Distribution limits and ranges for optimal site of different tree species and provenances are expected to move upward and northward, and new assemblages of species will occur in space and time. Consequently, activities are required for adapting forests to these changes and maintaining genetic diversity and resilience in forests.

Forest protection - Risks of abiotic and biotic damage, measures to curb the invasion of alien species representing potential risk for forests.

Changes in forest structure (tree species composition, age distribution) may be expected through the changes in the frequency and intensity of disturbances, such as fire, wind and heavy snow fall. This may increase the risk of insect and pest attacks, which are further increased through enhanced life cycle of pathogenic organisms and invasion of alien organisms.

Silvicultural management - Regeneration, including natural regeneration and plantation techniques. - Tending of sapling populations and pre-commercial thinning. - Stand management including thinning and harvesting practices and rotation length. - Soil management, including fertilisation and site preparation to enhance the nutrient cycle and success of regeneration.

Silvicultural management includes the management operation, which are used to modify the functioning and structure of the forest to the changing climate. The operations are used to modify the tree species composition and genetic structure of forests, to control growth and development of tree populations, to reduce the abiotic and biotic risks, and to maintain the site fertility to meet the needs of tree growth and the success of regeneration.

Technology and infrastructure - Development of wood processing technology to meet the possible changes in the supply of timber representing different tree species and changes in the quality of timber. - Infrastructure for forestry and non-timber use of forests.

Technology and infrastructure refers to the need to meet the changes in timber supply of varying species and the changes in the quality of timber. Furthermore, the forest infrastructure may require adaptation to cope with large-scale disturbances.


1.4. Outlines for identifying of adaptive management The implementation of the framework for adaptive management includes the choice of

the adaptive actions or measures. The adaptive actions are of two types: (i) those

necessary currently; and (ii) those necessary in the future. In both cases, the adaptive

actions represent the activities necessary for: (i) silvicultural management; (ii)

management planning; and (iii) technology and infrastructure, which are used in

managing and utilising the forest resources for timber, sequestration of carbon, and in

maintaining and enhancing water yield and biodiversity in forests (Table 3).

Table 3. Framework for identifying adaptive management.

Actions for adaptation Changes in climate, with impacts on site properties

Sensitivity and vulnerability Current Future

Description of the changes in climate, which may have direct and indirect impacts on regeneration, growth and mortality of trees at any time of the rotation period.

Description of negative and positive impacts, which climate change may have on regeneration, growth and mortality of trees at any time of the rotation period.

Description of any modifications in the current management strategies and rules, which are immediately needed to avoid any adverse effects of climate change and to utilise the opportunities provided by climate change.

Description of any modifications in the current management strategies and rules, which are needed later to avoid any adverse effects of climate change and to utilise the opportunities provided by climate change.

The framework for the adaptive management will be applied separately for different bio-

climatic zones in derivation of the management guidelines and rules for avoiding the

adverse impacts and for utilising the benefits associated with climate change.

2. Adaptive management in Boreal Forests 2.1. Potential damage and opportunities In the boreal forests, the current forests are most vulnerable at the polar and alpine

timber lines in northern Europe (Table 4, page 408). In these conditions, the functioning

and subsequent structure and tree species composition of forests may undergo a

thorough modification with a loss in their value for conservation, recreation and


landscaping and reindeer husbandry. In addition, an increase of deciduous species may

be expected in southern parts of the boreal forests. The timber producing capacity of

these forests may increase substantially, and thus provide more opportunities for timber

production, but reduce the opportunities for provision of non-timber goods and services.

However, on the western edge of the boreal forest in southern Norway reduced snow

accumulation may decrease on shallow soils the soil moisture in early spring and early

summer. This may cause problems for Picea abies and other shallow-rooted tree

species. This may increase the risk of biotic damage, which may be increased

throughout the boreal forest due to the likely invasion of alien insects and pest and likely

increase of abiotic damage. The increasing temperature and precipitation may reduce

the soil frost and increase the soil moisture, with consequent problems in harvest and

transportation of timber.

2.2. Patterns of adaptive management In the boreal conditions with increased precipitation and reduced drought risk, several

existing tree species (both native and exotic) are probably growing faster with a more

rapid life cycle and a consequent enhancement of turnover of tree populations (Table 5, page 409). This requires shorter rotations and regular thinnings in order to avoid biotic

damage associated with diminishing tree growth. The preference for natural

regeneration in management provides a huge genetic potential to adapt forests to

climate change. In northern Europe, this choice may be realistic, since natural

regeneration is a common practice in forestry and even in forest plantations natural

seedlings affect substantially the total success of reforestation. The preference of natural

regeneration may in the long term lead to an inevitable shift of tree species composition

to more frequent dominance of deciduous tree species with a larger supply of hardwood

timber. The increasing precipitation and the increasing dominance of deciduous species

may reduce the fire risk if there is one.


Table 4. Assessment of the need for adaptive management in the boreal forests.

Topic area to be assessed

Description of factors affecting the need for adaptive management


Higher temperatures and precipitation, with shorter duration of snow cover and soil frost, increasing risk of local thunder storms with high winds, increased risk of heavy snow fall with wet snow, wetter soils with lower carrying capacity.

Impacts and climate sensitivities

Enhanced regeneration and growth, increased dominance of deciduous species, thereby reducing fire risk, increased risks of wind and snow damage, enhanced risk of insect and pathogen damage, enhanced input of carbon in soils, enhanced decomposition of soil organic matter.

Capacity to adapt autonomously

Mainly native tree species are used, with large genetic variability to acclimate forests to elevating temperature and high variability in temperature. Enhanced seed production and success of natural seeding even in commercial forests, where two-thirds of the regeneration occurs by natural regeneration (seed tree and shelterwood methods). Enhanced forest productivity, with higher turnover of carbon in forest ecosystems. However, the low supply of nitrogen may limit the enhancement of growth, which is the highest in the northern part of the boreal forests. Currently, trees are well adapted to the local insects and pathogens, with low frequency of major outbreaks of insects and pathogens. The risk of the invasion of alien species and the invasion of the local species further north may increase the risk of the major outbreaks of damaging insects and pathogens. Increased risk of wind and snow damage, with possible enhanced susceptibility to biotic damage.

Vulnerability

Increased competition capacity of deciduous species may alter the species composition. Timber line may move northwards and to higher altitudes, with a disappearance of the current timber line forests. Enhanced growth rate may reduce the timber quality (branchiness, wood density, fibre length). Likely increase of abiotic and biotic damage may result in major losses in the quantity and quality of timber, which may mean an increase in unscheduled cuttings and management. Reduced soil frost along with higher precipitation will reduce the carrying capacity of soils, with problems in harvesting and transportation of timber.


Control of tree species composition to meet the future needs and expectations. Modifications of thinning practices (timing, intensity) and the rotation length to meet the enhancement in the increasing growth and turnover of carbon, to maintain high quality of timber, and to increase the resistance of forests to abiotic and biotic damage. Maintain infrastructure for forestry and non-timber forest production.


Table 5. Outlines of the adaptive management for the boreal forests. Actions for adaptation Changes in

climate, with impacts on site properties


- Higher air and soil temperature - More precipitation, with excess snow load, reducing risk of drought - Longer growing season - Higher CO2 concentration in the air - Reduced duration of frozen soils - Reduced carrying capacity of soils - Increased frequency of higher wind speed during the periods of unfrozen soil conditions

- Enhanced seed crop, with higher potentials for natural regeneration - Increased growth and reduced timber quality - Increased disturbances through wind and snow damage and insect attacks and spread of diseases - Reduction of competition capacity of conifers in relation to deciduous species - Enhanced growth of ground cover vegetation, with lower success of regeneration - Short supply of nitrogen in relation to the growth potential

Management planning - Include climate variables in growth and yield models in order to have more specific predictions on the future development of forests - Include the risk management into the management rules and forest plans Gene management - Make choice about the preferred tree species composition for the future - Identify more suitable genotypes - Launch breeding programmes to enhance the resistance of trees to biotic damage Forest protection - Revise the rules for importing fresh timber, to reduce the risk of introducing alien speciesSilvicultural management - Revise management rules to consider the climate variability on regeneration, growth and mortality - Prefer natural regeneration wherever appropriate Technology and infrastructure - Develop technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition - Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non-timber use of forests

Management planning - Plan the forest landscape (as mosaic of forest stands) to resist high winds - Plan forest landscape to minimise spread of insects and diseases Gene management - Plant alternative genotype or new species Modify seed transfer zones Forest protection - Revise management rules to enhance the resistance of forest to abiotic and biotic damage Silvicultural management - Develop soil management to reduce the influence of the ground cover on the success of regeneration and enhance the supply of nitrogen - Modify the management rules to meet the enhancing growth and turn-over of carbon - Change rotation length to meet the enhanced turn-over of carbon Technology and infrastructure - Develop technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition - Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non-timber use of forests


The dominance of coniferous species may require careful choice of tree provenance and

tree species that have optimal response to the changing climate. Tree improvement

programmes may be launched in order to increase the genetic potential of tree

plantations to adapt to higher temperatures and lessen the risk of damage by late spring

and early autumn frosts. However, effective results and the availability of suitable

material requires a minimum of about 25 years, with longer periods for adequate testing.

An increase in natural deciduous regrowth in coniferous plantation may require more

precommercial cuttings to favour the coniferous species. Later and more frequent and

intensive thinnings may delay early decline in tree performance and reduce risks of

biotic damage. Regular thinnings will also increase the mechanical strength of trees due

to the enhanced growth and thus reduce the risk of abiotic damage.

3. Adaptive management in Atlantic Forests 3.1. Potential damage and opportunities Apart from increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate

change will include changes in precipitation patterns. Changes in precipitation are

difficult to project, but most scenarios for the Atlantic zone of Europe show increases in

temperature and precipitation during the winter and a decreased amount of precipitation

during the growing season in summer.

The impact of climate change on tree and forest growth in the Atlantic zone of

Europe will be highly variable between tree species and between regions and sites, and

will be dependent on the local change in precipitation pattern in combination with soil

types. Therefore, in the following, we distinguish two different groups of sites, primarily

on the basis of soil water-holding capacity.

Much of the forested area in the Atlantic zone is located on sandy soils with low

water-holding capacity. On these sites, decreased precipitation during summer, in

combination with increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures, will result in

increased drought stress on the sites with low water-holding capacity and that do not

have access to groundwater supply from elsewhere. This will notably affect those

species that exhibit high growth and thus also (usually) high water consumption in

transpiration. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition may aggravate this, by increasing growth

early in the growing season and thus causing an additional boost in transpiration, which

may lead to earlier depletion of soil water in summer. Drought stress during summer

leads to a reduction in instantaneous growth rates, and trees vulnerable to prolonged


drought may suffer from early shedding of foliage. Other short-term effects may include

changes in composition of the seedling community through increased competition for

water in the undergrowth. In the long term, tree species composition may change

towards more drought-tolerant species. With the likely invasion of exotic insects and

pathogens, the risk of biotic damage may increase, particularly for introduced (non-

native) species with low drought-tolerance (e.g. Picea abies, Picea sitchensis,

Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Tsuga heterophylla).

In parts of the Atlantic zone with soils that have higher water-holding capacity (e.g.

loamy soils or soils with groundwater influence), most tree species will benefit from

climatic warming, and will probably grow faster under changing climatic conditions.

Increased growth rates can be expected, not only on the basis of increased temperature

and a prolonged growing season, but also due to the high atmospheric nitrogen

deposition in the Atlantic zone. Apart from increases in growth rate, an increase in the

competitive ability of some deciduous species (e.g. Fagus sylvatica, Quercus spp.)

compared with coniferous species (Pinus spp.) may be expected as they will probably

benefit most from the improved site conditions for growth.

Apart from these site-specific effects of climate change, there are some other

impacts that are relevant for the entire Atlantic zone. The projected increase in the

frequency and intensity of storms may result in higher storm damage. Concerning

biodiversity conservation, climate change impacts may manifest themselves in the short

term, for example in changes in species composition of the ground vegetation layer and

the associated fauna. However, migration of species ‘following’ the changing climate

along a latitudinal gradient may be hampered due to the high fragmentation of suitable

habitats in the Atlantic zone.


Table 6. Assessment of the need for adaptive management in the Atlantic forests.

Topic area to be assessed



Higher temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 concentration, lower precipitation during the growing season, higher precipitation during winter, shorter duration of soil frost, increased risk of storms with high winds, wetter soils with lower carrying capacity in winter.


On soils with high water-holding capacity: enhanced regeneration and growth, increasing dominance of deciduous species, enhanced decomposition of soil organic matter. On soils with low water-holding capacity: drought stress during summer, problematic regeneration, decreased growth rate, decreased carbon turn-over rate, increased fire risk. Increased risk of wind damage, enhanced risk of insect and pathogen damage.


Native tree species may have relatively large genetic variability to accommodate changing climatic conditions. Natural regeneration is more favourable to preserve adaptive (genetic) variation. Part of the autonomous adaptation may be a shift in species composition towards a higher proportion of broadleaved species. In the long term, there may be a gradual shift towards more drought-tolerant tree species on those sites that are most vulnerable to drought. Currently, trees are well adapted to the local insects and pathogens, with low frequency of major outbreaks of insects and pathogens. The invasion of alien species may increase the risk of major outbreaks of damaging insects and pathogens.

Vulnerability Forests located on sandy soils with low water-holding capacity may be affected by drought stress, due to increased transpiration and decreased precipitation during the summer. The risk of biotic damage may increase, particularly for introduced (non-native) species with low drought-tolerance. Forests on soils with higher water-holding capacity are generally less vulnerable. Likely increase of abiotic and biotic damage may result in major losses in the quantity and quality of timber, which may mean an increase in unscheduled cuttings and management. Higher precipitation in winter and shorter duration of soil frost may lead to a reduced carrying capacity of soils, with problems in harvesting and transportation of timber.


Control of tree species composition to meet the future needs and expectations (e.g. for biomass production). Modifications of thinning practices (timing, intensity) and rotation length to meet the changes in growth and carbon turn-over rate, to maintain high quality of timber, and to increase the resistance of forests to abiotic and biotic damage.


3.2. Patterns of adaptive management Since the impact of climate change on forest growth in the Atlantic zone may be positive

or negative, depending on forest type and local soil conditions, it is difficult make

generalisations for the entire zone. Given the small-scale forestry practice, the general

high level of education of the forest managers, and the strong knowledge infrastructure,

general guidelines will be useful despite this, since they can be translated and

interpreted for local conditions by the local management system.

Stands with enhanced growth rates will exhibit higher dynamics that can be used to

achieve management aims. For the purpose of timber production in these stands, wood

harvests may increase in intensity and a shorter rotation may be applied, as individual

trees may reach target diameter sooner. Shorter rotations and regular thinnings may

also decrease the risk for abiotic and biotic damage, by favouring mechanical strength

and increasing stand vigour.

In stands facing drought stress and reduced growth rates, thinnings may be adapted

to optimise water use and increase vitality and vigour of the remaining trees in the stand.

Where timber production is the main management objective, the need for careful choice

of tree species is evident. Other provenances and genotypes may also be considered,

although it is difficult to assess their response to the changing climate. In the long run,

species composition will (have to) change towards more drought-tolerant tree species or

provenances. This can be done by either planting, or more gradually by using natural

regeneration. Use of natural regeneration may help to maintain the genetic potential to

enable adaptation to further changing climatic conditions. Adaptive management on a

landscape scale includes increasing connectivity between planted forests and natural

areas, in order to improve the opportunity for natural migration of species across the

landscape.


Table 7. Outlines of the adaptive management for the Atlantic forests.



- Higher CO2 concentration in the air - Higher air and soil temperature - Less precipitation during the growing season, more precipitation outside growing season (increased risk of summer drought and winter flooding) - Longer growing season - Increased frequency and intensity of storms (events with high wind speed and concentrated precipitation) - Reduced duration of frozen soils and reduced carrying capacity of soils during harvesting operations in the winter

- Increased growth rate and reduced timber quality on soils with high water-holding capacity - Variable growth rate and increased mortality on soils with low water-holding capacity - Reduction of competitive capacity of conifers in comparison with deciduous species - Increased storm damage - Increased insect attacks and spread of diseases

Management planning - Include climate change scenarios in growth and yield models in order to have more specific predictions on the future development of forests - Include risk management in the forest management plans and guidelines Gene management - Make choice which is the tree species composition preferred in the future - Conserve genetic variability by using natural regeneration Forest protection - Revise the rules for importing fresh timber, to reduce the risk of introducing alien species - Control of invasive species Silvicultural management - Revise management guidelines to consider the effects of climate change on regeneration, growth and mortality - Prefer natural regeneration wherever appropriate Technology and infrastructure - Develop wood technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition

Management planning - Consider alternative species composition - Plan the forest landscape as mosaic of forest stands to resist high winds - Plan landscape to minimise spread of insects and diseases Gene management - Plant alternative genotypes or new species - Modify seed transfer zones Forest protection - Revise management rules to enhance the resistance of forest to abiotic and biotic damage Silvicultural management - Develop soil management to reduce the influence of the ground cover on the success of regeneration and enhance the supply on nitrogen - Modify thinnings and rotation period to meet the changing growth and turn-over of carbon, to increase carbon density, and to reduce drought stress Technology and infrastructure - Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non -timber use of forests


4. Adaptive management in Continental Forests 4.1. Potential damage and opportunities As in the Boreal and Atlantic forests, scenarios of climate change project increases in

temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration for the future climate in Continental

forests. The climate change effects on precipitation patterns will probably be more

heterogeneous. Although changes in precipitation are difficult to project, most scenarios

for the Continental zone of Europe show, in addition to a temperature increase, an

increase in precipitation during the winter and a decreased amount of precipitation

during the growing season in summer.

As in the Atlantic region, the impact of climate change on tree and forest growth in

the Continental region will be highly variable between tree species and between regions

and sites, and will be dependent on the local change in precipitation pattern in

combination with soil types. In the high mountain ranges impacts will be similar to the

impacts discussed for the boreal region.

Increasing temperatures through their effects on the length of the growing season

and low temperature limits in winter will set a trend for increased forest productivity and

shifts of potential niches of tree species towards the north and higher elevations.

There is a wide range of precipitation levels and soils in the Continental region. The

poorest growing conditions are found on sites with sandy soils and low water-holding

capacity, and in regions with a marked continental climate. On these sites, decreased

precipitation during summer, in combination with increased evapotranspiration due to

higher temperatures, will result in increased drought stress in all but those sites that

have access to groundwater supply from elsewhere. This will notably affect those

species that exhibit high growth and thus also (usually) high water consumption in

transpiration. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition may aggravate this by increasing growth

early in the growing season and thus causing an additional boost in transpiration, which

may lead to earlier depletion of soil water in summer. An earlier start of the growing

season may also have an effect. As opposed to this nitrogen deposition will reduce the

need for down-regulation of photosynthetic capacities when CO2 fertilisation occurs.

Concomitant increases in water use efficiency allow for a more efficient use of water

resources, thereby reducing the risk of drought stress. Drought stress during summer

leads to a reduction in instantaneous growth rate, and trees vulnerable to prolonged

drought may suffer from early shedding of foliage. Other short-term effects may include

changes in composition of the seedling community through increased competition for


water in the undergrowth. In the long term, tree species composition may change

towards more drought-tolerant species.

In parts of the Continental zone with increasing precipitation and soils that have

higher water-holding capacity (e.g. loamy soils or soils with groundwater influence), most

tree species will benefit from climatic warming, and will probably grow faster under

changing climatic conditions. Increased growth rates can be expected, not only on the

basis of increased temperature and a prolonged growing season, but also due to the

high atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Continental zone. Apart from increases in

growth rate, an increase in the competitive ability of some deciduous species (e.g.

Fagus sylvatica, Quercus spp.) compared with coniferous species (Pinus spp., Picea

abies) may be expected as they are likely to benefit most from the improved site

conditions for growth. In between the two types of site conditions characterised so far,

there is a continuum of sites with different combinations of soil types and precipitation

levels.

Apart from the site-specific effects of climate change, there are some other impacts

that are relevant for the entire Continental zone. The projected increase in the frequency

and intensity of storms may result in higher storm damage. Concerning biodiversity

conservation, climate change impacts may manifest themselves in the short term, for

example in changes in species composition of the field layer and the associated fauna.

However, migration of species ‘following’ the changing climate along a latitudinal

gradient may be hampered due to the high fragmentation of suitable habitats in the

Continental zone. At high alpine elevations the upward movement of the forest

boundaries may drive endemic species into extinction. With the likely invasion of exotic

insects and pathogens, the risk of biotic damage may increase.


Table 8. Assessment of the need for adaptive management in the Continental forests. Topic area to be assessed



Higher temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 concentration, higher precipitation in more oceanic climates, high uncertainty about precipitation in more continental regions with risk of reduction of precipitation levels, lower precipitation during the growing season, higher precipitation during winter, shorter duration of soil frost, increasing risk of storms with high winds, wetter soils with lower carrying capacity in winter in oceanic climates.


Longer growing season due to decreased temperature limitations for evergreen species and shorter leafless periods for deciduous species. In regions with high precipitation levels and soils with high water-holding capacity: enhanced regeneration and growth, increased dominance of deciduous species, increased litter inputs, enhanced decomposition of soil organic matter. In regions with decreasing precipitation and soils with low water-holding capacity: drought stress during summer, problematic regeneration, decreased growth rate, decreased carbon turn-over rate, increased fire risk. Increasing risk of wind damage, enhanced risk of insect and pathogen damage.


Native tree species may have relatively large genetic variability to accommodate changing climatic conditions. Natural regeneration is a favourable option to preserve adaptive (genetic) variation. Part of the autonomous adaptation may be a shift in species composition towards a higher proportion of broadleaved species. In the long term, there may be a gradual shift towards more drought-tolerant tree species on those sites that are most vulnerable to drought. Currently, trees are well adapted to the local insects and pathogens, with low frequency of major outbreaks of insects and pathogens.

Vulnerability Forests in continental climates located on sandy soils with low water-holding capacity may be affected by drought stress, due to increased evaporative demand of the atmosphere and decreased precipitation during the summer. Xeric valleys in the inner Alps, dry regions at the southern and eastern edges of the Alps, the Carpathian Basin, as well as dry continental parts of the northern lowlands may be affected. Forests in regions with high precipitation and on soils with higher water-holding capacity are generally subjected to lower drought limitations. In all climatic sub-regions increased frequencies of episodic dry and hot spells would increase vulnerability. The invasion of alien thermophilic species may increase the risk of major outbreaks of damaging insects and pathogens. Likely increase of abiotic and biotic damage may result in major losses in the quantity and quality of timber, which may mean an increase in unscheduled cuttings and management. Higher precipitation in winter and shorter duration of soil frost may lead to a reduced carrying capacity of soils, with problems in harvesting and transportation of timber.


Control of tree species composition to meet the future site conditions and economic boundary conditions. This requires special attention to risk management strategies especially where the uncertainties about future precipitation trends are very high and in general because of low predictability of demand for different wood assortments. Modifications of thinning practices (timing, intensity) and rotation length to meet the changes in growth and carbon turn-over rate, to maintain high quality of timber, and to increase the resistance of forests to abiotic and biotic damage. Coordination with forest user groups, policy and administrative levels that set boundary conditions for adaptation by changing the demand structure for forest goods and services (e.g. Kyoto mechanisms, landscape water management demands).


4.2. Patterns of adaptive management Since the impact of climate change on forest growth in the Continental zone may be

positive or negative, depending on forest type, local soil conditions and location within

the climatic spectrum ranging from humid oceanic to dry continental climates, it is

difficult to make generalisations for the entire zone. Nevertheless, given the small-scale

forestry practice, the generally high level of education of the forest managers, and the

strong knowledge infrastructure, general guidelines will be useful, since they can be

translated and interpreted for local conditions by the local management system.

Stands with enhanced growth rates will exhibit higher dynamics that can be used to

achieve management aims. For the purpose of timber production in these stands, wood

harvests may increase in intensity and a shorter rotation may be applied, as individual

trees may reach target diameter sooner. Shorter rotation length and regular thinnings

may also decrease the risk of abiotic and biotic damage, by favouring mechanical

strength and increasing stand vigour.

In stands facing drought stress and reduced growth rates, thinnings may be adapted

to optimise water use and increase vitality and vigour of the remaining trees in the stand.

Where timber production is the main management objective, the need for careful choice

of tree species is evident. Other provenances and genotypes may also be considered,

although it is difficult to assess their response to the changing climate. In the long run,

species composition will (have to) change towards more drought-tolerant tree species or

provenances. This can be done by either planting, or more gradually by using natural

regeneration. Use of natural regeneration may help to maintain the genetic potential to

enable adaptation to further changing climatic conditions. Adaptive management on a

landscape scale includes increasing connectivity between planted forests and natural

areas, in order to improve the opportunity for natural migration of species across the

landscape.


Table 9. Outlines of the adaptive management for the Continental forests. Actions for adaptation Changes in

climate, with impacts on site properties


- Higher CO2 concentration in the air - Higher air and soil temperature - Less precipitation during the growing season, more precipitation outside growing season (increased risk of summer drought and winter flooding) - Increased frequency and intensity of storms (events with high wind speed and concentrated precipitation) - Reduced duration of frozen soils and reduced carrying capacity of soils during harvesting operations in the winter

- Longer growing season - Increased growth rate and reduced timber quality on soils with high water-holding capacity and under high precipitation - Decreased growth rate and increased mortality on soils with low water-holding capacity and under low precipitation - Reduction of competitive capacity of conifers in comparison with deciduous species in humid regions - Increased storm damage - Increased threat by invading thermophilic insects and spread of diseases - Zones suitable for tree species move to the north and higher elevation

Management planning - Include climate change scenarios in growth and yield models in order to have more specific predictions on the future development of forests - In regions prone to experience increased dryness include a shift towards drier site conditions in the evaluation of the suitability of sites - Include risk management in the forest management plans and guidelines Gene management - Make choice which is the tree species composition preferred in the future - Conserve genetic variability by using natural regeneration Forest protection - Revise the rules for importing fresh timber, to reduce the risk of introducing alien species - Control of invasive species Silvicultural management - Revise management guidelines to consider the effects of climate change on regeneration, growth and mortality - Prefer natural regeneration wherever appropriate Technology and infrastructure - Develop wood technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition

Management planning - Consider alternative species composition - Increase species diversity and diversity of forest types in the landscape to increase resilience of forests under uncertain climatic developments - Plan the forest landscape as mosaic of forest stands to resist high winds - Plan landscape to minimise spread of insects and diseases Gene management - Plant new species or alternative genotypes - Modify seed transfer zones Forest protection - Revise management rules to enhance the resistance of forest to abiotic and biotic damage Silvicultural management - Develop soil management to reduce the influence of the ground cover on the success of regeneration and enhance the nitrogen cycling - Modify thinnings and rotation period to meet the changing growth and turn-over of carbon, to increase carbon density, and to reduce drought stress Technology and infrastructure - Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non -timber use of forests


5. Adaptive management in Mediterranean Forests 5.1. Potential damage and opportunities Forests in the Mediterranean area have to cope with very restrictive conditions regarding

water availability. Precipitation accounts for about one half of the potential

evapotranspiration, and actual evapotranspiration is very often limited. With the

exceptions of deep valleys and more humid spots, the water stress increases from north

to south. Vulnerability increases following the same pattern. The predicted climate

changes, according to most of the general circulation models, seem to bring even more

restrictive conditions to these already limiting growing conditions as listed in Table 10.

Table 10. Assessment of the need for adaptive management in the Mediterranean forests. Topic area to be assessed



Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation regime with lower precipitation in summer and equal or slightly higher precipitation in winter. Despite the amount of precipitation, most of the models predict more intense rainfall events. Increased water stress, decrease of water stored in soil. Increased fire risk.

Impacts or effects of climate change on the forests, with climate sensitivities.

Reduced regeneration and growth. Increased dominance of species adapted to arid conditions. Increasing risk of fire and water stress damage. Increased damage caused by insects and pathogens. Soil organic matter decomposition rates decreased due to the reduced soil water content. Marked phenological changes regarding decrease of leaf life span in evergreen species and increase in length of growing period in deciduous species. These changes may contribute to alter carbon storage in trees and water storage in the soil.

Capacity of autonomous adaptation

More stressful conditions could increase vulnerability to insects and pathogens. Plant and soil moisture decrease imply higher fire risk with lower adaptation capability of tree species. Increased disturbance frequency could reduce the natural regeneration and resprouting capacity. Reduced forest productivity. The decrease of water supply, which is already the growth-limiting factor, would imply even lower growth rates thus endangering the availability of timber supply.

Vulnerability Reduction of forest area of the species situated at the southernmost limit of their distribution area and substitution by species more resistant to arid conditions. Extension of heathland areas to detriment of tree forested areas. Reduction of tree growth is expected as a consequence of lower water availability. Likely increase of abiotic and biotic damage with major losses in the quantity and quality of timber. Risk of exotic plant invasions.


Maintain high biodiversity to ensure forest adaptive capacity. Modify the thinning practices in order to achieve a better water balance in the forests (resprout selection) and to increase forest resistance to perturbations. Manage the resprouting species in order to keep the suitable tree density avoiding the elevated densities which are common at present. Manage forests to avoid growth stagnation.


5.2. Patterns of adaptive management In Mediterranean conditions under the increased temperature and reduced precipitation

regime (more arid conditions expected), the forest response to management practices

regarding timber production is very low (Table 11). Other ecosystem services such as

water storage or biodiversity could be somewhat enhanced by specific management

practices.

Reduction of tree density in holm oak (Quercus ilex) forests and other resprouters

could help to improve the tree water balance which would in turn help to overcome

drought episodes, reduce tree respiration and maintain gross production, improve net

production and forest structure.

The role of Mediterranean forests, and in general ecosystems, as carbon sinks is

very limited and restricted for the next decades. Further into the second half of the 21st

century an important part of Mediterranean forests would become carbon sources.

Table 11. Outlines of the adaptive management for the Mediterranean forests.



- Higher air and soil temperature - Less precipitation, and less evenly distributed, increasing risk of drought and fire - Longer growing season - Higher CO2 concentration in the air - Increased frequency of disturbances

-Decreased growth - Increased disturbances through natural hazard damage and insect attacks and spread of diseases - Reduction of competition capacity of species more vulnerable to arid conditions -Exotic species invasion -Wider extension of shrubland.

Management planning - Include climate variables in growth and yield models in order to have more specific predictions on the future development of forests - Include the risk management into the management rules and forest plans Gene management - Maintain high biodiversity to ensure forest adaptive capacity Forest protection - Control invasions by exotic species Silvicultural management - Revise management rules to consider the response of forests to the predicted climate change

Management planning - Plan the forest landscape as mosaic of forest stands to resist fire - Plan landscape to minimise spread of insects and diseases Gene management - Maintain high biodiversity to ensure forest adaptive capacity Forest protection - Control invasions by exotic species Silvicultural management - Modify the management rules of resprouters to improve tree water balance - Modify the management rules to enhance biodiversity


At present, the timber production in the Mediterranean is already quite limited. Most

Mediterranean forests are protective forests and their main function is to protect soils

against erosion, especially in the common hilly areas, water capture and supply or air

quality. Due to the shortage of water, the growth rate of most forests is too low and wood

production is not competitive in the international market. In addition, most Mediterranean

forests have an uneven-aged structure in part as a consequence of the management to

produce charcoal in the past.

6. European adaptation and mitigation potentials 6.1. Comparison of the results from regional case studies, with implications for forest management The implications of adaptive forest management were assessed in one case study

representing the temperate continental forests (Germany) and one representing the

boreal forests (Finland). Generally, wood production in both case studies responded

positively to the reduction in limitation of annual photosynthetic production by low

temperatures and to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. This effect was stronger

in Finland than in eastern Germany. For the latter, a high uncertainty is associated with

future precipitation levels. Here, a reduction in precipitation may lead to reduced wood

production. Harvested wood volume in both case studies was more sensitive to the

climate change signal than to the range of management options investigated. However,

management had a strong impact on carbon sequestration, when accumulation of wood

in the forests is favoured.

Both studies showed maximum carbon sequestration over 100 years for the

management programs with minimum harvest activities: no harvest and convergence

towards conservation forestry in the German case study, and final harvest only in the

Finnish case study. This result was obtained in the German study area with changes in

soil carbon included in the simulation, while for the Finnish management unit changes in

soil carbon stocks were not evaluated. If changes in soil carbon stocks are excluded

from the analysis, the German study still shows qualitatively the same results. In both

study areas wood stocked in products could not compensate for carbon removed from

the forests. If a set of priorities aiming at high carbon storage was applied to the Finnish

management unit the management program representing no thinning with ‘final harvest

only’ clearly resulted in the highest utility. In Germany the comparison of sets of

preferences determined from stakeholder responses will enable us to see if a


comparable difference in management programs yielding the highest utility will result.

However, it should be noted that the carbon sequestration criterion applied here does

not fully evaluate climate protection potential because substitution effects were not

quantified.

6.2. Mitigation through Europe: results based on the large-scale forestry model The current European forest resources enable the utilisation of wood (e.g. for

manufacturing wood products or generating bioenergy) to be increased. The current

drain is not much more than half of the increment, and therefore the growing stock is

increasing quite quickly. This low utilisation level leads to the development of older

forests that are characterised by lower carbon sequestration rates because of declining

increments. The shift of the age class distribution towards older age classes also has

implications for the disturbance risk, because old forest stands are more vulnerable to

natural disturbances.

The two applied future climate change scenarios (ECHAM4 and HadCM2) did not

differ much from each other and the simulated impacts were similar. Both scenarios

showed positive impacts on growth, mainly in boreal forests. Elsewhere the response

was minor. However, the results include uncertainty, especially in the Mediterranean

region, since the model approach assumed a large growth stimulation caused by

increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This effect compensated for the negative

impacts of drought, but both the CO2 fertilisation and the interaction with drought are not

well understood and thus introduce uncertainty into the results. But even the positive

stimulation of forest growth in European forests could potentially have detrimental

effects. Without an increase of the felling level the climate change impacts would result

in an even faster build-up of growing stock, which is accompanied, as discussed before,

by declining increments and rising disturbance risks. Adaptive forest management under

such conditions essentially means that forest resources need to be managed more

intensively to avoid possible negative implications on stand stability and timber quality in

the aging forest stands.

The results of this study suggest that even under the high demand scenario, the

European forest resources will still be under-utilised in the first half of the 21st century.

However, higher felling rates in the years 2000-2050 would probably advance the period

when supply is not able to match the demand (in some of the countries). This study did

not take into account trade between countries and furthermore, the thinning and


harvesting schedules could be modified in response to the enhanced growth rates.

Therefore, the high demand scenario is still below the maximum sustainable felling level.

Shorter rotations and more intense thinnings would reduce the carbon storage in the

system, but at least in Central and Southern Europe they could increase the carbon

sequestration rate, and in general they would enable the carbon storage in wood

products to be increased, and more of the fossil fuel substitution potential of wood to be

utilised.

7. General conclusions In the northern boreal zone, the forest growth is mainly limited by low temperature, and

often by nutrient availability. Precipitation is normally not limiting. Higher air temperature

predicted by scenarios for the future climate will prolong the growing season and thereby

increase growth. This is only partly the case in the southern boreal zone, where the

forest is more limited by water, and less by temperature and nutrients. An increasing

forest growth is also expected to occur in the temperate maritime zone. In the temperate

continental zone, the forest growth is, in general, more constrained by water, but the

water limitation is much less serious than in the Mediterranean zone. In the Alpine zone,

the forest growth is water limited at low altitudes, but not at higher altitudes where

precipitation is significantly higher. In general, the change of growth in future climate

compared to the current one is more positive when including the effect of elevated CO2,

which can counteract or offset potential negative effects of changes in the climate; the

latter being the case in areas in Central European and Mediterranean regions.

In Europe, there are only a few tree species of economic importance in forestry.

However, changes in tree species composition may be an appropriate adaptive

management strategy. The following changes in tree species composition may be

considered in implementing adaptive management strategies:

• Incorporation of other indigenous tree species, currently of minor importance in

forestry, but with high potential for timber production or carbon sequestration

under climate change.

• Increased share of broadleaved species, because broadleaved species are

assumed to perform better under climate change.

• Substitution of species sensitive to drought and to late spring frosts with more

drought-tolerant and frost-resistant tree species or provenances.


• Replacement of low productivity tree populations with high productivity ones

whenever the current population does not make full use of the potential

productivity of a site.

Mixed forests occur on 40% of the total forest area in Europe. One tree species may

naturally dominate the stand, but in most cases, other tree species also make up a

certain proportion of the stand. Mixed stands are often considered more ‘natural’, and

more resilient to changing climatic conditions, or to likely consequences of climate

change, e.g. increased risk of insect infestations. The diversity of stand types at the

landscape level also has a mitigating influence on the proliferation of forest fires and

infestations. Furthermore, mixtures of tree species and stand types also have a positive

influence on overall biodiversity, soil properties and recreational values.

The tree species choice is a basis for an appropriate adaptive management

strategy, which further includes the adjustment of thinning (intensity, interval, pattern

(from above, from below)) into the changing productivity. In this context, the regulation of

the rotation period is an effective way to manage the timber production and carbon

budget of forests. Over the rotation, the timing and intensity of thinning determine the

growth rate and stocking, which control the rate of carbon sequestration and the amount

of carbon retained in trees and soils. In most European countries, growing stock is still

increasing, because timber harvest (thinning, final felling) is below the increment. This

implies that the total carbon storage is increasing. On the other hand, the age-class

distribution of European forests is shifting towards the older age classes, and overall the

rotation period is increasing. This implies that the rate of carbon sequestration is

declining. However, replacement of over-mature old forests with new fast-growing ones

with the objective of carbon sequestration in the biomass of the new stand, is not always

an adequate option, as old forests and their specific characteristics are generally thought

to have benefits for conservation of biodiversity. Management had a very slight influence

on water yield throughout Europe.

The results show that, especially at Central European sites, cumulative yield

increases significantly when reducing the rotation period and increasing the thinning

intensity. Nevertheless, these practices could have strong effects in reducing the

aboveground biomass, and the carbon storage. It is evident that timber production and

carbon sequestration cannot be maximised simultaneously, which means there is an

opportunity cost for each additionally sequestered unit of carbon. Estimates for marginal

costs of carbon sequestration vary substantially depending on the accounting approach,


the discount factor for net present value (NPV) from timber production and on the

climate scenario. In some cases, the cost estimates exceed 100 €/MgC, and are thus far

above what is expected as a market price for carbon. Additionally, the quantities of

carbon which could be stored by adapting forest management are in many cases very

low and thus not very effective unless large forest areas are involved. Adapting forest

management to a changing climate seems to be much more relevant for timber

production than for carbon sequestration.

Generally, there are relatively few quantitative constraints or restrictions from forest

policies to forest management or silvicultural systems in order to adapt to climate

change. Management practices, on the one hand, are generally highly dependent on

local conditions. National forest policies tend to have a high level of abstraction,

providing a rather general approach towards forests and broad objectives on forest

functions. However, clear constraints exist in most countries concerning tree species

composition. In general, non-indigenous species and provenances are not ruled out, but

native species and provenances are preferred. General principles of sustained yield

place limits on exploitation, in that thinnings must be performed in a manner that

promotes the growth of the remaining stand and leaves enough trees for a satisfactory

growth potential. Most national legislation and guidelines state that clear-cut areas have

to be reforested immediately or within a reasonable time span.

Generally, policy developments at the international level should be translated and

implemented at the national and local levels. Therefore, policy measures are needed in

three main categories: (i) legal and regulatory measures (legislation, regulations and

guidelines); (ii) financial and economic measures (taxation and incentives); (iii) and

educational and informational measures (information dissemination and educational

programmes). At the national level, expansion and revisions of legislation, and

associated regulations into the field of adaptation and mitigation strategies may be

required. At a local level, guidelines and recommendations to forest managers on

specific management aspects (e.g. tree species, allowable clear-cut area, rotation

length) are important. Legal and regulatory measures have to be complemented with

financial and economic measures, such as incentives and changes in taxation systems.

In general, incentives are more useful, more flexible and easier to apply than

changes in taxation. Positive incentives may be given to forest management practices

that are considered adaptive to climate change (e.g. regeneration with climatically

adapted species, practices leading to increased vertical and horizontal structure of forest


stands, continuous cover forestry) or for the functioning of groupings of forest owners.

Apart from regulatory and financial means, education and information of all involved in

forestry is of utmost importance. Adequate information and training is needed in the

fields of changes in the socio-economic and policy environment, climate change impacts

and possible adaptation and mitigation options in forestry. Furthermore, organisational

assistance, in the form of assistance to forest owners in establishing or revising

management plans, may prove useful to promote adaptive forest management.

Given the diversity of environmental and socio-economic conditions of forests, there

is no one-size-fits-all option that can be suggested for the promotion of adaptive forest

management in all countries or regions of Europe. The most appropriate combination of

policy measures will be dependent on local socio-economic factors (forest ownership

structure, size distribution of the forest holdings, economic importance of the forestry

sector, public and political valuation of the various forest functions) and ecological

factors (bioclimatic region, main forest types and associated adaptive forest

management options). Furthermore, there may be barriers that might impede the

introduction of new policy measures, such as issues of social or political acceptability,

constraints from interactions between forestry and other sectors or between different

levels of policy, or the costs associated with the implementation of certain instruments.

Policy measures aimed at forest management should be balanced between climate

change mitigation (carbon sequestration and storage) and adaptation to climate change,

and between various forest functions. Moreover, policy measures aimed at management

of existing forests should be complemented with measures for afforestation,

reforestation and deforestation.

References Climate Change. 2001. Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working

group II to the Third Assessment of the Intergovermental Panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. 1032 p.

Spittlehouse, D.L. & Steward, R.B. 2003. Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 4(1): 1-11.



European Mitigation and Adaptation Potentials: Conclusions and Recommendations

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