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Energy Systems 4

Block 1: Concepts, Skills Background

Unit 1: Background and Fossil

ResourcesAlan Harper

September 2015

Acknowledgements to BP and Ian Bryden

Energy and Civilisation• Energy is the key to civilisation

• Pre-17th century

– Little change since the Romans

• Muscle, open fires (wood, dried dung, a little coal)

• Windmills, water wheels

• Basic metallurgy (except luxuries)

• 17th Century

– Shortage of raw materials

• Conflicts, wars, famines

– Start of rational study: Boyle, Newton etc

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Energy and Civilisation

• 18th Century• Resource shortages, timber, food, iron

• Continual wars, revolutions and conquests

• First Industrial Revolution in Britain

• 19th Century• Localised wars – ‘pax Brittanica’

– US Civil War, German unification, colonialisation

• Industrial Revolutions in Europe, North America,

India, Japan

• 20th Century• Resource shortages: coal, iron, oil, phosphates

• ‘Century of War’3

Energy and Civilisation

• 21st Century

– Can we get it right this time?

– Probably our last chance!

– Second (or third) Industrial Revolutions

– Globalisation

– Moral dimension

– New Powers - BRICs

– Resource Shortages: pretty well everything

• Except people

– Skills shortage – this brings you in……..4

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Demand, Supply and Media

• Physical transport process have

– Sources – where stuff comes from

– Vectors – how stuff moves

– Sinks – where stuff goes to

• Demand – what the customer wants

– Right quantity and quality

– Right place

– Right time

– Right Cost 5

Primary Energy

• Primary energy is energy found in nature that has not been subjected to any conversion or transformation process.

• It is energy contained in raw fuels as well as other forms of energy received as input to a system.

• Primary energy can be fossil, geographical or cosmic.

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Primary Energy

Sources• Fossil Fuels

(Delayed solar)

– Coal

– Natural Gas

– Crude Oil

– Etc

• Cosmic Sources(Big Bang, Supernovae, Gravity)

– Natural uranium

– Thorium?

– Deuterium; Tritium?

– Solar Energy

– Geothermal Energy

• Geographical Sources(Delayed solar)

– Wind Energy

– Wave Energy

– Tidal Energy

– Ground-source Energy

– Air-source Energy

– Hydrolectricity

• ‘Manufactured’ Sources

– Biomass

• (Indirect Solar and Fossil)

– CO2 synthesis

– 239Pu, 233Th, 3H 7

Primary energy world consumption

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Primary energy consumption by region 2014

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Secondary Energy

(Vectors, Media, Energy Carriers)

• Primary energy sources are

transformed in energy conversion

processes to more convenient

forms of energy such as:

– electrical energy;

– refined fuels or

– synthetic fuels such as hydrogen fuel

• Most common/commercial

– 3 phase AC electric

– ‘Distillate’ (Diesel, LFO etc)

– ‘Natural’ Gas (Methane) 10

Energy Carriers

Primary

Energy Input

Primary Energy Conversion

Energy carrier

Secondary Conversion

End Use

Thermal Waste Thermal Waste11

Resource Depletion

• Ultimate “Depletion” of Finite Fuel

Reserves

• Increasing production costs as “easy”

deposits become uneconomic

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Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

December 2014

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Energy Resources?

• We will be considering issues associated

with the availability of primary resources,

primarily fossil but we will look later at

some of the key issues associated with

nuclear resources

• In particular, you need to appreciate the

language which is sometimes used when

discussing resource!

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A Note on Comparisons!• It is common to use MTOE as the unit of primary energy (Mega

tonnes oil equivalent)

• For comparison with geographical and nuclear generation, a

nominal equivalent conversion efficiency (often 38%) is

generally assumed

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Fossil Resources

• Foolhardy to attempt to make any kind of

prediction about how much fossil fuel we

have left in the world.

• 1900 predictions suggested that oil and

gas would be exhausted by 1930.

• We need to decypher some of the

vocabulary which is used in resource

considerations.

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Fossil fuel reserves-to-production

(R/P) ratios

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Reserves (Petroleum)

• The total estimated amount of oil in a reservoir, including producible and non-producible oil, is called “oil in place”.

• Because of reservoir characteristics and limitations in extraction technologies, only a fraction can be brought to the surface.

• It is this fraction that is considered to be “reserves”.

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Recovery Factors (RF)-

(Petroleum)

• The ratio of producible oil reserves to total oil in place for a given field is often referred to as the “recovery factor”. These vary greatly among oil fields.

• The RF of any particular field may change over time based on operating history and in response to changes in technology and economics.

• The RF may rise over time if investment is made in enhanced oil recovery techniques such as gas injection, surfactants injection, water-flooding or microbial enhanced oil recovery.

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Proved Reserves

• Proved (or proven) reserves are those believed to have a reasonable certainty (normally at least 90% confidence) of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, with existing technology.

• Generally known as P90 (i.e., having a 90% certainty of being produced) or as 1P

• The values will change as new deposits are discovered, new technology is developed and as the market-price of the commodity varies.

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Proved Reserves (Crude oil)

21 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Distribution of proved gas reserves: 1994, 2004 and 2014 Percentage

Resource and ProductionThe R/P ratio (in this case) shows the

ratio between the proved reserve of

crude oil and production per annum.

World proved oil reserves in 2011 were sufficient to meet

54.2 years of global production.

Venezuelan reserves increased due to a reassessment.

The global proved reserves have only increased slightly

from 2009

It should be noted that we have already

consumed several times the proved

reserves of the 1960s!

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"Total Reserve"

• Is the total quantity which is present in the world,

taking into account that which has yet to be

discovered and that which would be economically

unfeasible, at present, to produce.

• There are unlikely to be any more massive

discoveries of oil deposits

• Condensate from fracked gas

• Oil is known to exist in other forms. Tar sands, for

example, could prove to contain massive deposits.

• The Athabasca Tar Sands in Alberta are believed to

have an oil content close to the total of the world's

conventional proved reserve!

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“Total” Reserve- continued

• The oil industry believes that the total

resource of oil is between 250 and 350 billion

tonnes. (2 to 3 times the proved reserve.

• If we take into account other unconventional

forms, the figure might be around 600 billion

tonnes. Much of this could only be exploited

at very high financial and environmental

costs.

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Peak Oil?

• All fossil fuels are finite resources in the sense that production is greater than replenishment and there will come a time when production cannot increase and must decline

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Production profile of a typical

oilfield

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A Real Example

MECE10003 PGEE10014 28

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Also applies to regions!

Norway in this case!

MECE10003 PGEE10014 29

Historical R/P Ratios Oil

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Production and Consumption

31 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Oil product consumption by regionMillion barrels daily

Light distillates Middle distillates

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The Flow of Crude Oil Across the World

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Crude Oil Prices 1861-2011

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Source: Platts

Rotterdam & Gulf Coast oil product pricesUS dollars per barrel

Rotterdam product prices US Gulf Coast product prices

Natural gas

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Gas production/consumption by regionBillion cubic metres

Consumption by regionProduction by region

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Gas reserves-to-production (R/P) ratiosYears

2014 by region History

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Source: Includes data from Cedigaz, CISStat, FGE MENAgas Service, IHS CERA, PIRA Energy Group.

Major gas trade movements 2014 Trade flows worldwide (billion cubic metres)

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Gas prices$/Mmbtu

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What about coal?

• Over 50% of the fossil fuels in the world

are coal.

• There is a common belief that “there is

coal for hundreds of years”

• But several countries have already peaked

in coal production…

MECE10003 PGEE10014 41

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015Source: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.

Distribution of proved coal reserves: 1994, 2004 and 2014Percentage

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Coal reserves-to-production (R/P) ratiosYears

2014 by region History

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015

Coal production/consumption by regionMillion tonnes oil equivalent

Production by region Consumption by region

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Global coal distribution

MECE10003 PGEE10014 45

Hundreds of Years Supply?

• Increasing consumption of coal to make up for declining production of petroleum will rapidly decrease estimates for availability!

• In the USA, between 2000 and 2006, the R/P ratio decreased by 37% from 227 years to 147 years as a result of increased production!

• Present World R/P is 118 years

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Peak Coal?

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