OUTLINE Introduction Research Issues

Statement of Problem Hypothesis Significance of Study Research Objective Limitations of Study

Methodological Approach Findings

Suggestions Conclusion

Policy Implication

Introduction Prior independence in 1960 cocoa played an important role in Nigeria’s economic development, generating 90% of her foreign exchange earnings and the largest employer of labor.

Nigeria still produces 300,000 – 350,000 tones of cocoa a year; the country exports about 96% of its cocoa crop.

Exports in 2010 was 360,000 metric tons valued at $373,855.00.

This disposition places Nigeria as the fourth highest cocoa producing nation in the world after Ivory Coast, producing 360,000 metric tones valued at $378,855 in 2010.

Research Issues Statement of Problem: To determines the effects of climate change on the variability of cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.

Hypothesis: Climate change influence cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.

Significance of Study: To investigate the effects of climate change on cocoa yields, export and other factors that has led to the decline in cocoa export in Nigeria.

Research Issues cont… Research Objective:o To determine the effect of climate variability or change on cocoa yields and export.

o To investigate other causes of the decline in cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.

Limitations of Study: Lack of research supervisor and time constraint to source materials.

Methodological Approacho Source of Data From secondary sources with the use of WIT/World Bank, FOASTAT, CBN statistical bullion, Nigeria bureau of statistics website.

o The analysis of data was conducted by descriptive method of analysis with the aid of graphical representation of data as analytical tool, to compare the trends in the time series data and their variation on cocoa yields and export.

Findings Graph of Average Precipitation, Volume & National Rainfall. Source of Data: www.fao.stat.org

The above graph revealed that: From 1961 - 1970, the average amount of rainfall was 1,368.00 (mm) and the average temperature was 11.7(°c) while cocoa yield was 230,750 tones.

Findings cont… Between 1971 – 1980 there was an increase in average rainfall from 1,368(mm) to 1,408 (mm), temp. from 11.7(°c) to 14.02(°c) & a decline in cocoa yields from 230,750 tons to 198,370 tones.

1971 – 1980( The Oil boom era in Nigeria). Decline may attributed to other factors like use of obsolete equipment, poor methods, pest, diseases & bush burning etc.

US Department of Agriculture attaches in Lagos, attributes it to over aged of cocoa farmers aged 60 years & above, compared to only 3.1% of the general population.

Findings cont… 1981 – 1990,a fall in average rainfall from 198, 370 (mm) to 1,246.00 (mm), average temp. increased from 14.0 (°c) to 14.19(°c) & a fall in cocoa yields from 198,370 tones to 184,180 tones.

1991 – 2000, decline in rainfall from1,246.00(mm) to 1,182.70(mm), increase in average temp. from 14.19(°c) to 14.31(°c) & an increase in cocoa yields from 184,180 tones to 296,600 tones.

This increase may be due to government policies since 1999, such as R&D, distribution of improved seedlings to farmers.

Findings cont… 2001 – 2010, an increase in rainfall from 1,182.70(mm) to 1,193.80(mm), temp. increased from 14.31(°c) to 14.55(°c) and cocoa yields rise from 296,600 tones to 388,845 tones, highest increase for the period under reviewed.

Literatures from past researchers and NEMA revealed the evidence of climate change in Nigeria, i.e flooding, drought & desertification in northern Nigeria.

The table below revealed the a significant growth in cocoa export in Nigeria for the last 10 years.

Findings cont…o Graph of Nigeria Cocoa Exported to World. Source of Data: www.fao.stat.org

Conclusion However, there are climate change effects in Nigeria ,but climate change has little or minimal effects on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria for the period under review.

Conclusively, decline in cocoa yields may be attributed to present government policies, factors likely to reduce yields are traditional farming methods, use of obsolete equipment, poor methods, pest, diseases & bush burning etc.

Suggestiono To improve cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. A holistic approach should be adopted by Government and all stakeholder by investing in this sector through R & D.

o Education of cocoa farmers on modern trends in the cultivation of this crop and value addition to their raw cocoa for more market access and competition.

o Utilization of fallow land for cocoa production in the cocoa region or belt.

o Measures should be put in place to address the issues of the effects climate variability on cocoa yield and the decline in its export.

Policy Implications The degree to which an agricultural system is affected by climate change depends on its adaptive capacity.

Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved upon and implemented.

Measures to prevent climate change impact on cocoa yield should be put in place by government and all stake holders of cocoa production.

Green method of cocoa farming should be encouraged by government; with the use of eco-friendly equipment, by improving the Agricultural Credit Scheme.

Thank You